tv Fast Money CNBC December 13, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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in that trillion dollars plus market cap category. they need access to this kind of manufacturing in order to thrive and there are big geopolitical questions about what might happen in taiwan. so great to get that inside look. that's going to do it for "overtime." there's more to think about. "fast money" starts right now. have a great weekend. this is "fast money." here is what's on top. health care headache. the worst performing s&p sector this year. with trump's team focused on rolling back vaccine mandates, is this part of the problem? is it time to nail down profits in the trades? broadcom booming.
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can it keep climbing? the latest waves of executives set to visit the president-elect. will fedex beat? i'm coming to you live on the desk tonight. we start off with the latest overhang for the health care sector. there's a petition to revoke approval of the polio vaccine. the fda was petitioned on the ground that the polio vaccine safety hasn't been studied sufficiently. it's more than one of a dozen he filed petitions against. this is the latest sign of hostility toward vaccine makers in the next administration since president-elect trump's victory.
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they have seen losses. it comes amid a wave of backlash against health insurers following the death of brian thompson and a senate bill that could face insurers to break up. it's down more than 10%. it's the worst performing sector in the s&p this year. how do we trade health care? maybe the answer is not simple. >> it's not simple. it's complex. this is going to take years to play out in terms of policy. what we argued is that the headlines are not necessarily the follow through. i look at pfizer, who has been indicted in the stock market and i mean in terms of the valuation over the last year and a half. in terms of their vaccine profile. this say company this is a company to spent money in oncology. i look at this as an opportunity. i don't know you have to jump
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in. we have seen -- usually, the buildup and headwinds against health win come in the lead-up to the election. this is what it feels like when policy is uncertain. we have had a nice recovery in some of the glp names. look at names that are most under pressure and talk about the health care business and what's been going on, it's not surprising there's some reprisal in the market. you need catalyst. we are waiting for earning season. >> sentiment is terrible when it comes to this space. now it has every single -- all these issues are bipartisan. that's the problem. >> yes. that's true. that's clearly weighing on the sector. i agree with everything tim said. these headlines are sensational. it's not surprising that the stocks would react. one that we didn't include was
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merck. that's the hpv vaccine for them. i think -- it's the h in my helm trade. you brought up this idea of, why are we seeing ratios so high? some of the health care names not doing well. where is that medical loss ratio spend going? somewhere. there's a disconnect there to me. i'm staying long. it's been frustrating for sure. we also haven't seen the pushback from the lobbyists which will happen or is happening under -- we don't see -- >> it feels like big pharma has controlled washington. >> we haven't seen that yet. we don't know if it's happening quietly. it will happen at some point. >> fact from what we think is going to happen.
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he said he is not totally going to do away with vaccines. rfk said he is not going to do away with vaccines. >> what is on the market is on the market. >> i want more transparency. i don't want -- if vaccines work for you, have at t. right? you are not going to get that taken away. are there new ones? your point is the new ones coming to market. i think there's going to be a more transparent process. big pharma, to tim's point, has run over everyone. everyone is -- it's odd, because you said it's bipartisan. big pharma pays every politician. we're getting presumptuous he will do away with vaccines. that's not going to happen. they have to figure out, let's
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get away from covid and figure out what other things you want to get into. the is, no one wants a vaccine for flu or covid. you have two things that people don't want as the main source of your revenue. if you are a glp, you are okay. >> whether or not the vaccines are taken away, if that effort is successful, maybe it won't be, maybe it will be, it underscores the question mark around science and the value of science in this administration and how science will be weighed at the fda and various agencies within hhs. if we have these vaccines like the polio vaccine or the mmr vaccine that's been in use for decades, successfully stamping out an illness for generations questioned at this point, you wonder, what else is going to be questioned? >> that's not rfk.
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this article is about -- >> this guy is picking out who will head agencies. >> not to be political, but we were told, follow the science. the science had no clue what they were doing during covid. the vaccine, it will safeguard. no, it doesn't. that's what put a bad taste in the population. following the science that really was no science. back then. this is different. polio, a different beast. trump is on - >> it's emergency circumstances. we didn't have time to do years of research. i don't want to get political. >> trump said if someone tries to take away the polio vaccine, he will put up a fight. >> polio is safe. how about the 12 others? >> we will get more transparency. >> there needs to be a delineation between long-standing polio, tuberculosis, smallpox vaccines.
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i could understand -- staying on topic, how it affects stocks. i can understand some of the concern around the covid vaccine. without having a political bent. the speed of which it was. it was an emergency use case. i can understand there being pushback. there's speculation around heart conditions linked to it. i'm in support of there being transparency and ongoing studies. a lot of times you won't know 10 to 20 years from time of it coming to market what the real pushback or some of the side effects may have been. getting into how to trade the stock market, this calls into question how you look at trading the health care sector all together, particularly large pharma. it makes sense that this sector has lagged because you have had performance. two years of 20 plus percent performance. you call into question because these are supposed to names -- whether headline risk or whether
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internal operations, aren't giving you the downside protection and low beta portfolio dging. then you are probably forced to look for growth and you are forced to be into the eli lilly and know novo nortis of the wor. >> you have a fresh opportunity to reinitiate trades around glp. there's been big updates within the community around cell treatment and around cancer. they have drugs coming to market. this has been a major underperformer. bristol, you can make an argument. names in self therapy and committed to dynamics that are places you can invest around. this doesn't get into the crosshairs of what's
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controversial. there's support. i think you just stay away from the headlines. people willing to go after some of the headlines and tab ke chances are going to be rewarded. >> i want to bring to you a response from the rfk junior team in response to the article regarding the lawyer looking to petition the fda to revoke the approval of the polio vaccine. rfk saying, the polio vaccine should be available to the public and properly studied. studied, he wants further studies. >> available first and studied later? >> it should be available to the public as well as thoroughly studied. this is what we have right now to nbc news through a statement. that doesn't stop them from petitioning the fda. it doesn't stop the lawyer from questioning the validity of the other vaccines. for more on this, let's bring in
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dr. peter hotez. great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me. >> you have actually spoken to rfk junior yourself about vaccines and the potential link to autism. you speak not only as a vaccine expert but also as a father of a daughter who has autism. i'm wondering, what was his reception when you told him you didn't think vaccines caused autism? >> i had written a book with the title, "vaccines did not cause rachel's autism," about my daughter. it's based on scientific evidence. let's go through it a little bit. i don't know how much time we have. what rfk and other anti-vaccine activists do is they switch the goalposts on what their beef is about vaccines. the original assertion was in 1998 with false claims that it
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was measles, mumps, that was causing autism. the paper was retracted. they were expensive studies and long-term. there were thousands of children involved. rfk junior wrote a paper in "rolling stone" that said, it's not the mmr vaccine. it's the preservative in vaccine. same thing, that was debunked through large studies. then they switched it up again. i call it vaccine whack-a-mole. it must be that we are giving too many at once. they weren't taking no for an answer. they were going to look until they found something. that was debunked. then it was switched to hpv for cervical cancer. that must be doing something. it was causing infertility or
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autoimmunity. that was debunked. now they are moving towards something that's so vague that no one can understand what they are talking about, chronic illness. the point is, each time the scientific community responds. there's another piece to this that's important. it's not just the scientific evidence showing there's no link. there's no plausibility. it's because autism begins in tal development, before the child is even born. we now have at least 100 autism genes, many of which are discovered at harvard m.i.t. we did sequencing on rachel and my wife and i. we found her gene similar, although somewhat different. at stanford medical school, we have studies with brain organoids. it's a complete story. there's no there there.
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>> there's the element which you outlined in terms of the tremendous amount of man hours and dollars and time being put into debunking these theories. a waste overall. in the view of the scientific community. what does this tell you about the role of science? what are your top concerns going forward when you take a look at how this administration is shaping its hhs, shaping its fda in terms of research and development, drug discovery, things like that? >> first of all, i'm worried about public health. we are seeing now through this kind of rhetoric a rise in the anti-vaccine activism in the united states. now we have a fivefold rise in whooping cough cases. we have gone from four measle outbreaks to 14.
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parents are not vaccinated kids. we have had polio in the waste water. i'm worried these -- as a scientist and a pediatrician, i have taken care of children with meningitis or rubello or intubated because of measles. they are coming back because of this rhetoric. that's my number one concern. the chilling affect on -- as one of your panel members mentioned, on bringing new vaccines to the attention of the fda. i'm worried this will have a chilling affect. >> seeing that we have dr. mcharry in line potentially to head the fda, you are starting to -- i'm not asking you to be a political analyst. when you see who is put in key
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positions and what kinds of physicians they are and where they come from, a lot are respected physicians. are you worried science is going to take backseat? are there enough checks and balances within who is appointed to offset the conjecture science? >> in addition to rfk junior, if you look at the appointments for the nih director, fda director, they were during the pandemic talking heads on fox news that espoused some ideas that did not -- were not part of the mainstream of science. claims that we would have herd immunity after the pandemic started. that never panned out. there was a fair bit of anti-vaccine rhetoric. i am concerned of what's going on. not only with rfk junior but all of health and human services. i don't want to make it about rfk junior. wasn't to focus on the amazing
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science that's gone into vaccines over the last few decades, since 1954, after the placebo controlled study of the polio vaccine across the nation. published in 1955. i don't want to see that erode. >> dr. hotez, thank you for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> we don't want to be political. there are questions within mainstream science about how science will be valued within this administration. that throws into question some of the drugs that are being developed right now, some of the drugs on the market right now. therefore, if those questions remain and are out there, can you buy pfizer? you have it and you own it. this is just another thing on top of the pile for pfizer in. >> if this was two years ago -- let's say it was the same price it was at today, whatever is the
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way to look at it, i think you should be more concerned. my sense is, the market isn't really valuing the core vaccine business they have at this point. that's something that's been two years in the making. >> pfizer is not going down on bad news like this anymore. right? i think a lot is priced in. shares of broadcom topping. better than expected profit and ai revenue that tripled from a year ago. it was the best day on record. over the $1 trillion mark for first time. shares have more than doubled this year. is broadcom the new winner in the ai race? >> 24% drop, i think you meant up. >> opposite. >> i think it's a new winner. i think looking out, they spoke to 2027 numbers. we have talked about pulling forward earnings. i think that's probably the one bone that i would pick.
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>> you didn't like that? >> no, no, no. not at all. that's a very slippery slope. to answer your question, i think it's a new winner. i think eventually, their business is at the expense of nvidia. with the custom silicon business, the core business they have, they are catering to hyperscalers that are the competitors and have their own capabilities. i think with inference and as the large language models get more complex, you need more customized solutions. i think that raises the question how you want to trade your nvidia position. >> how do ou trade your nvidia position? >> i think you -- listen, i think ultimately, i ll wait until 2027 until taking chips out of nvidia and add them to broadcom. i think in terms of needing to chase nvidia higher, given the performance it has had, this may be a secondary -- >> he brings up a great point.
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with broadcom, the clients you have apple, alphabet and meta. they are more apt -- those companies are more apt to go to a bloodcom than nvidia because they will be competitive. i would go with com. >> sure. i got it. >> nvidia is rolling over. i wouldn't buy the spike. >> i will go to you with the would you rather. >> pfizer or broadcom? >> i'm going to get there. what i liked about broadcom is that not only is there a three times multiple in the ai business year over year, that's exciting. i will say that the wall street analyst community in terms of going out to '27, the street is saying, we see 40% to 50% growth for the next three or four years. this is something that i think whe sest has provided some sen
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erthey sit . home builders on shaky foundations. deep in the red after a strong start to the year. can they get the house in the order or should you close the door on this trade? don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there.
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welcome back. the s&p home builders etf in need of renovations. dropping almost 4% this week. toll brothers, its worse week since january 2022. the chart master out with a note today saying things will only get worse from here. take precautions, he said. where are you on home builders? >> i agree. you will see the bifurcation we have seen new homes versus existing homes, as rates are coming down, you will see existing home sale goes up. if you look at dhi in particular, they have the highest rate of mortgage buydowns amongst all home builders, which impede the margins. i think it's tough for a home builder. you have an easier job selling the home you are.
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>> you are ordering people around. >> no, no, no. on that screen, we had dri instead of dhi, which is a common mistake. it's a big difference in company. restaurants versus a homebuilder. >> sometimes people would prefer to go to darden. the bottom line is this was the worst week in two months for rates. we d 440. wall street have been investing into rental properties. there's a dynamic that says at some point there are ways to meet demand in the rental market. i think it's a case of, they have didn't -- they have been struggling at these levels. rates aren't helping. valuations are full. >> home depot and lowe's, i like. i do think that the economy is doing well.
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rates do come down. not enough to get all that existing inventory on the market. still, that can be a decent environment for home depot and lowe's. >> i owned dhi. i lightened up kb homes. i'm reticent to completely not allocate to that subsector because it still trades at a market discount. the last thing i will say is, to tim's point, the ten-year rate shots, i think that's what's leading. we are becoming uncorrelated from fed funds target. until you get that volatility to calm down, it's tough to own these in terms of having a core position. they will likely, given the volatility, present trading
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opportunities. there's more to come. here is what's coming up next. >> shares of paypal helping. why some on wall street are getting more bullish on the name. what's in store in the new year? one more fed rate before 2024 comes to a close. what stors expect. if the central bank easing campaign is about to come to a close. you are watching "fast money." we're back right after this. did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? [jeff laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, look at these guys. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. so you're like a guru now? oh here it comes— join 18 million americans
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welcome back to "fast money." paypal higher after an upgrade from wolfe research. they set a price target of $107 for the end of the year. tim? >> can we give our viewers the date when we come back with fresh acronyms? karen can play by the rules this year. >> shots fired. >> i'm sorry. i had that coming.
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i'm lashing out. >> in the middle. >> did you lose your mic? it's behind your tie. >> it's the smartest you have founded. >> oops. >> go ahead. >> the story here, the 200 million, 220 million in terms of user base is the largest or second largest in north america. alex, don't call me peter kriss. how exciting. i won. i won. this is the nasdaq. it's an exciting place. there's always confetti coming down. the recent ceo team that's come in has not only brought change but urgency to beginning to monetize new products, raise margins. i think this has a ways to go.
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it's not just because this was a stock that traded three times the dollar amount. the street has yet to come around to the changes. >> what happened to the competitive threat from apple pay? it exists? should that be a concern? >> 220 million active monthly users means you are entrenched. by definition, you are out there. the switching costs are high. another thing that he mentioned was new capabilities. the single click pay. conversion rates are around 45% or 50%. that's material. you are not giving the extra an extra five minutes to think about whether they want to go through with the purchase. one caveat, you are leveraging to discretionary. do you think that hit number? one more fed decision left in 2024. markets expecting another cut. could the central bank's easing cycle be nearing an end?
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welcome back. stocks muted to end the week. the dow losing 86 points. the longest losing streak since february of 2020. the s&p flat today. but snapping a winning streak. the nasdaq squeezing out a small game and notching the fourth positive week. tesla up. now up more than 73% since the election. lamb weston jumping. super micro hit today. next week is the final fed meeting of 2024 and the last meeting before donald trump returns. hawkish cut. what do you think? what are the odds?
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>> looks like that's going to be the case. the market is convinced the fed will cut rates. that was to do with the data coming in line. when we talked about it last time on the show, i was thinking it's closer to a point where they will skip a meeting or maybe be on hold for a period of time. we do have an economy that stays strong. since they cut rates in september, all data is lifted up. inflation has risen. unemployment rate has not moved. the fed may cut again one time but then it could hold off. it's an interesting dynamic. it may be between the two meetings the fed decides to stay on hold. >> thanks for being on. i think they should do a dovish pause rather than a hawkish cut. is there any different besides a window dressing?
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it's interesting. if you think dovish pause, it will be market friendly. hawkish cut it's -- you cut but you are more hawkish then you are perceived to be. that could be negative. it's in the middle of the two. it's tough to say. i guess the fed is saying, we can cut rates but we're still in the phase where the economy is strong enough where we may be on hold for some time to assess the data. you come down in the middle. for the marth ket, it will lifte market into year end, which i think small caps and industrials will rally. if you hold off, people will extrapolate that into the first quarter of rates will stay higher than anticipated. that's the negative side. >> i notice you flagged the dollar. i agree with that. i think the central bank differentials are starting to show up again.
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not just boj, which can't be hawkish even if they want to. but what's going on in europe and weakness across the eu. what are the implications for the dollar do you think next year on either where it is actually going to be supportive to the fed or talk about multinationals, what that means for bond yields. what are your thoughts? >> typically, the dollar if it gets strong -- it's an uplift to the inflation because you get lower imported inflation on the strong dollar. it will be a headwind for multinationals in that sense. bond yields, if you think of a strong dollar, if inflation gets more controlled by a strong dollar, it will be positive for bonds. i think going into next year, the anticipation is the u.s. economy will stay strong if not get stronger. i should mention, we have challenges in europe. we have the bank of japan sitting here like they may hike
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but not so fast. the dollar has room to rise. i do think it will play out in the sense that maybe some headwind for the multinationals. keeping bond yields somewhat capped. the caveat that if you keep cutting rates, you are stimulating the economy. that makes the dollar stronger. lift rates higher. the dollar will strengthen and the yields are poised to go higher. >> i have argued that the tight credit spreads are what are leading this rally in equity or support the rally in equity. you mentioned the spread between the two year and corporate bond spreads. could you speak to some of the risk that might be -- that that might causing? >> it's as tight as the financial crisis. the history -- it may not repeat, but it -- it spreads
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significantly when the fed has to cut rates sharply because we are in a downturn. we don't seem to be at that point. one point to make is if the fed cut rates, because they want the unemployment rate at this level we are, not letting the situation worsen, the worsening labor market is only going to erode the economy. i think we are at the point where it will stay tight. it's a indicator. if you are going to cut fast, it seems the fed wants to get holds for a period of time to see how things play out. it's really tight. it does mean the economy ultimately will pread wider. that's the big question next year. it doesn't seem clear right now. >> great to see you. thanks. >> thank you.
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>> what do you think happens next week? >> i think they are going to cut. one of karen's scenarios is going to take place. ben said the economy is getting stronger. it's a point of relatively. are you going to buy u.s. or europe? u.s. is still the place to buy. it sounds like we are back to a fed put. if unemployment increases, they cut more aggressively. >> i think international -- i think multinationals do very well in the environment where the dollar is that strong. i think there's an opportunity. you have to pick your spots internationally. germany is running into a lot of pressure. the eu will continue to cut rates. >> you stand by a pause? >> i think they should do a pause. i don't think that's what will happen. that's what they should do. the economy is going fine. i think -- i hear your point about unemployment ticks up.
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what if inflation ticks up? that could -- would that be shocking? >> the only thing that's good about inflation is that 65% of it is housing costs. that's where we saw some relief in that sector. if we really look at it as a holistic approach, you should see that coming in. it relies on rates. you are not going to have gas. you are not going to have food. you are not going to have oil. that seems to be come ing in ju a bit. they went 50 in september. there was some urgency that they went 50. they saw something approaching. maybe they stemmed the tide of whatever inflation they saw that was coming down the pike. big tech, big donations. ha ceos are cozying up to trump. that's next. when you thought we were done, there's more earnings next week. key names to report and how to
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big tech looks to cozy up to the administration. "the new york times" reporting tim cook will having dinner with trump tonight. >> he is not the first and he won't be the last going down to mar-a-lago. the inaugural fund donating to it, it's a gesture of support and an investment in a new power dynamic. we compared donations with public data from last two inauguration funds. biden's in 2021 and trump in 2017. there's still time for others to make donations. so far, it has seen million dollar contributions from meta, amazon and openai's sam altman. meta and altman didn't donate anything in 2017. amazon upped its amount ahead of jeff bezos' meeting next week
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that trump alluded to at the new york stock exchange yesterday. this is a significant step in support from those three versus the biden 2021. it's a way to counter musk's influence. zuckerberg and bezos, they have been punching bags of trump. this won't guarantee them protection. but a million dollars is small stakes for them. it could make a difference between having a say in the conversation versus watching from the sidelines or getting caught in the crosshairs. this is really a strategy that tim cook perfected in his dealings with trump in previous years. there was an article that detailed how cook developed a personal relationship with the president-elect by appealing to him through phone calls and meals versus sending government relations executives or lobbyists. that news from "the new york times" that he is heading down
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there for dinner tonight, that makes sense. >> it does. remember tim apple? it's not the first time he has done anything. >> exactly. >> you compared the donations -- if you think about how much the companies have grown in the time period. a million dollars is a lot more versus the dollar amount. compared to the market cap and the company and the power within the markets, that has -- that has grown exponentially. >> it's more relevant for sam altman in a different position. you are right. it has changed for the companies and the people. a gesture of good will. they could afford this. this year, they really ramped it up compared to the previous ones. >> thanks. tim cook, the president-elect of
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the united states of america. >> is he giving him a million dollars? >> xi jinping? >> we don't know. >> this is the -- what's good about this second term is that large cap tech are having conversations. they didn't have those conversations prior to it. i think it's a softer trump administration. i think it's more open. maybe it's the same administration and people are taking him up on dinner. it's a win/win for the economy and the united states. >> win/win for the tech executives. you want the companies. you want them to have a seat at the table. >> you want them to have a good relationship with the administration. that $1 million is like me spends 10 cents. >> i have to laugh at this. this feels like every oligarch walking up to the kremlin and making sure kremlin is happy. there's not even an attempt to mask what this is.
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it's just what it is. >> these are the rules of engagement. for me, they are protecting the downside. the opportunity of not donating is not worth it. >> they have done it for both sides for years. it's the rules of ep gaugement. it's something done on both sides for years. >> if you look at the chart,@a few zeros. >> the first one was obama with ambassadors. it's usually an ambassadorship that people wind up donating. you get the ambassador to italy or whatever you want. >> a big week of earnings.
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dad: you can talk to me. son: it's been really, really hard for me. nike and fedex up and nike down. it's the first report since elliott hit took over. >> fedex i think it will be interesting. i don't know the quarter will matter. the commentary will matter. i think about retail and how it might do for the fourth quarter,
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this quarter, which ends september, we don't -- we had uncertainty about the election. i think that i want to hear the commentary, what's happened since then? i expect it would be strong, which will bode well. >> whenever you look at fedex, you compare u.p.s. and fedex. u.p.s. has had headwinds from labor and unions and fedex you don't get that. the chart is very volatile. it's up 12% for the year. i look at it as a verdict on the economy. how the economy is doing. what they're doing, what they are seeing. i use that as a 50,000 foot up as to how to put the pieces together with every sector i'm trading underneath it. >> nike, tim. >> the trend haven't gotten less challenging. therefore, i think there's going to be a very rosie -- a constructive outlook for a business that's not broken.
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i think this is by far the world's largest brand. they can dominate. they will dominate again. i think the next couple quarters are rough. you don't have to chase this. i think there's little on the horizon to change the competitive landscape in their favor. up next, final trades. it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount. a healthy weight can help dogs live a longer and happier life. the farmer's dog makes weight management easy with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. business. wit it's not a nine-to-fiveed for proposition.eds.
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i think that the pendulum could swing. >> i think it could turn around. it will continue to lead us higher. i think alphabet offers you the si because of the money". have a terrific weekend. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you a little bit of money. my job is not just to enter tan but i'm trying to put it altogether. the market's biding its time. the dow is dipping 86 points today. s&p unchanged. nasdaq
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