iphones and some with foldable screens. it's monday, december 16th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and we are coming to you from the nasdaq right here in times square. this is our new temporary location. we're upstairs at the nasdaq instead of on the ground floor. this is all as they are doing renovations to our studio downstairs right now. >> we have been here before. >> we have. it's been a while. >> different set. >> different set. we're sitting on -- >> the same people. >> sitting on the set of somebody else.

>> only more entrenched. >> upstairs? >> just in general with each passing moment. >> could be. could be. let's look at the u.s. equity futures this morning. this is the last full trading week you will be dealing with for the year because we have the holidays coming up and christmas next week shuts down a day and the new year's the following week. you see modest advances. dow indicated up 14 points. s&p up 7 and nasdaq up 61. if you check out treasury yields, you see right now it looks like the ten-year is drum roll, please. up at 4.38. the two-year at 4.23. we do have big meetings this week. we have the federal reserve meeting on wednesday and later in the week, meetings from the bank of japan and k of england. you d bitcoin trading higher

this morning. still elevated. $104,582. up .% in the last week. shares of of micro strategy jumping in the past week. it is increasingly become a bitcoin holding company. michael sayler tells us he is seeing the company's role and secure tiezing. palantir and axon joining the nasdaq 100 as well. the etfs that track the index will become automatic buyers. that includes qqq. the three companies replaced are moderna on that list, super micro computer and illumina, joe. and high profile visitor to

mar-a-lago. it's early, sara, good morning. >> i have news for you, joe, which you will like. i learned according to sources, masa san, the billionaire of softbank in japan, is at mar-a-lago and plans to make a joint announcement today with president-elect trump that he will be investing $100 billion into the united states before 2029. before the end of trump's term. the announcement, i'm told, will also include the promise of creating 100,000 jobs in the united states and this will all be focused on a.i. and related infrastructure support that a.i. demands. again, the big announcement that i'm told will come later this morning, according to sources familiar with the matter is $100 billion investment by softbank's

masa son in the next four years under president- trump's term. this may be familiar to you because masa son followed this playbook in 2016. he went to trump tower ahead of the last trump administration and announced a $50 billion investment in the united states with the aim to create 50,000 jobs and it got done. it got done at a time when masa's softbank, the biggest venture capital bank in the world, was investing. they did that through a lot of investments in united states over 300 companies in the united states. this one, i'm told, is not from a venture fund community. it could be. recently, soft bank's vision fund's plan was to invest in openai. it could be through capital

projects and also be through arm. the company they own a majority of. it is $100 billion. the two are set to announce this later in mar-a-lago which, joe, as you know, has become sort of the center of the universe when it comes to u.s. policy right now. would be considered a huge win for president-elect trump. >> sara, where are they getting the $100 billion from? >> so, look, i don't have much details on it, andrew, but between softbank and what he controls in the vision fund, they clearly have money to put to work. i know there have been big hits and swings and big wins and big losses over the vision fund's history. they certainly the arm vehicle has been impressive. i think this is some sort of

mixture of the fortune that masa son controls. >> this is not new money raised? this is money -- >> correct. just like last time. it doesn't necessarily have to be new money raised for the projects. it's just a commitment to inn spent and spend. that can be through the venture and investing. it can be through new projects. it is not necessarily they are raising new money or funds to do this. this is money he controls and that he plans to invest. he is bullish on america and he is bullish on a.i. which is something we've known. he has been public about that lately. >> i didn't realize he had $100 billion of free cash to invest. that's the startling thing for me as i was looking through just how much money. i assume he has to return a lot of the vision fund money or should have been.

>> i guess through -- he is able to make these investments. last time he did it with $50 billion. this is double. i think it speaks to how he feels about a.i. right now, clearly. promise fulfilled last time around, andrew, for any skepticism for you. >> fair enough. no, i hope so, too. at the time, i believe he had had raised the money though. >> right. the newly formed $100 billion fund basically that he was able to with the vision fund that he was able to deploy. part of that could be clearly from this. also, obviously, controls softbank which is the telecom and software giant in japan and has his own personal fortune. at one time, he was the richest man in the world. that was around the dot-com bubble. >> sara eisen, thank you. fascinating. in the meantime, apple's ceo tim cook meeting with

president-elect trump on friday at mar-a-lago. after the meeting, the two men dined on the patio resort. this follows two other meetings with trump including mark zuckerberg and sundar pichai. jeff bezos is scheduled to meet with trump this week. tim cook, it is note able to point out, had a good working relationship with the president in his last term. he worked closely with president trump going down to the factory in austin and meeting with tim cook there. he apparently, according to the new york times, had a good working relationship with ivanka trump and jared kushner. expressing interest in ing the post office. citing three people with knowledge on the matter. the report says when trump was told about the annual losses, he said the government should not subsidize it. people who work at the department of government efficiency led by elon musk and

vivek ramaswamy have all said preliminary conversations of major changes to the post office. there have been twitter comments about which trucks they should be using. wild order to create custom postal trucks that look like nothing you have ever seen. each truck is $150,000 per truck or more. elon musk was saying this is crazy. we should figure this out. part of the postal service problem is they have to guarantee the liabilities -- i shouldn't day liabilities, but retirement funds for employees and the way they account for that has always been a huge problem. having said that, the postal service needs to find a way. >> it was funny. when he was told they were losing money. we know this. i know you love the irs. 80,000 new agents. i would like to hire new people for the post office, in the

actual post office itself. >> i love the guy in my post office. >> i love the guy. i don't like the 30 people in front of me trying to talk to the guy when i go there. >> the long lines? >> can i have half of them? can i have 40,000? you take the other 40. >> i'm in the revenue collection business. >> some of the revenue they could collect help them lose more money at the office. >> the irs piece i never understand. >> it's not ing to happen. >> you would never say the people who collect the money. >> have you heard of someone named lois lerner? >> i do. >> you give the irs too much money and you will not be happy about it. >> i was just thinking about it. if they ize the post

office, can you opt out of the junk mail? that is the reason they make the money they do is the junk mail. >> the post office is a loss leader. >> it always has been. the idea you serve all of the rural areas in the same places with customers who are on top of each other. >> i like the guy who comes. >> i brought candy into the post office on saturday. >> do you know your mail snan. >> ike's my guy. >> my guy drives like a maniac. he almost can get close enough to the front porch where he can drop it the way he maneuvers that truck. >> i could do with your dog. >> yeah. every day they come, they think this is brand new. this guy's coming to do something and they never learn. the problem is, when they bark, he leaves after he delivers mail. >> i would, too.

it got him away. >> scared that guy. in the meantime, abc network is paying $15 million as part of the legal settlement with president-elect trump. it will end the dispute that centered on the interview which trump george stephanopoulos defamed him. in an interview with republican congresswoman nancy mays, stephanopoulos said trump was found libel for rape. e. jean carroll not libel for alleged rape. trump has denied carroll's claims. abc will add a note to an online article about the interview they regret the statements about trump. >> i watched that video. he kept saying it and she kept saying how offensive it was to her as a victim of rape.

he was shaming her for being a trump supporter. he noted it was civil. it was called rape. >> nine jurors checked off no to rape. right. coming up, a busy week ahead. we get you ready for earnings and economic readings. these next. and walter isaacson will weigh in on elon musk's role in the administration. "squawk box" will be rhtacig bk. e types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models.

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whoa. this is not today's sidewalk planner. this is for the week. the week's squawk planner. that's a winner. i think. earnings to watch. general mills and micron report on wednesday. fedex and nike on thursday. the fed starts the two-day policy meeting tomorrow. markets are expecting a quarter-point rate cut although there is hand wringing of inflation. they seem dead set. the bank of england and bank of japan have monetary decisions on thursday. for economic data, we have quite a bit this week. tomorrow, november retail sales. on wednesday, housing starts. on thursday, jobless claims and

third quarter gdp revisions and then on friday, we get personal income and spending numbers which include the fed's favorite inflation gauge core pce. joining us now is sylvia jablonski. defiance ceo and cio. that is quite a bit to digest. gives us something to think about, something to worry about, something to look forward to. which describes your feelings for the data? what's most important? >> good morning, joe. i think neutral is my answer. the biggest number of the week is what the fed actually does. i think there's a 96% expectation we get another fed cut. it is interesting to hear what he is thinking for 2025 and if this is the last rate cut for a while and how the commentary leans. does it lean hawkish or dovish if the data is no t in line?

i don't think there will be a huge market reaction either way, but i think the market expects that cut. >> do you think, sylvia, the fed just feels committed? do you think the numbers we got last week, if they hadn't prepared -- that's a problem with forward guidance because the market gets its heart set on certain things. do you think it is the right move given the warmer inflation numbers we saw last week? >> you know, i think you hit the nail on the head there. when you set forward he can pex expectations, it is difficult to go back. it is a bit of a heat up here. it is potentially seasonality. there is not the case they shouldn't cut the quarter point this week. going forward, i think if that changes and we start to continue to go in the other direction,

that will be a problem and we will go back. you know, i don't think that the data is really done anything to change their minds. prices are still 22% higher than they were pre-pandemic. we have the 2.7 minus food and energy. if the trends continue to trend upward, we probably will see a pause on the cuts. if it doesn't, we will see sporadic cuts next year. >> markets at new highs. bitcoin trading at 106. where is the evidence that interest rates are too high right now or restrictive? the economy, you know, we get a gdp revision. ten-year, we have seen it's under control. where is the evidence in the jobs market? where are you seeing these higher rates are taking a bite and need to be lower?

>> yeah, i think that's a great point. if we look at corporate earnings just over the last year, it doesn't seem there is a lot of evidence, right, that corporations have been hit by higher interest rates. you know, sorry, restrictive policy. i do think that the small caps feel it. i think these smaller companies that invest in growth and participate in things like quantum computing and a.i. and not the mega cap names we know. they are struggling. you are seeing them roar this year. i look at the quantum stocks and the rate cut will help them on r& d and grow and they get a tailwind from the trump trade with onshoring. the smaller companies is where you feel it. >> at this point, you feel this is another policy mistake from the fed? you don't think so? go ahead. >> yeah, no, i don't think so.

i don't think he is going to come in and just, you know , cu every meeting going forward. we will see the 96 come to fruition this week and we will hear a lot about we'll pause for now and see what the data looks like. >> you think inflation -- you think inflation's back in the bottle? back in the genie bottle? back in the lamp? >> i think it's steady, you know, just given the last couple months what we have seen, i think it is steady and stable. once we get out of the holidays and see that next year can better determine the answer to that question. i don't think it's going to go the other way. >> you like the markets okay? the santa claus rally in the cards? >> i like the markets. there are a lot of good places to put money now. a lot of trades out there. i mentioned quantum.

you have ioq. this is the next chatgpt moment that a.i. had. google's willow moment and quantum funds and quantum etfs. things like that. >> sylvia, thank you. did you send us notes ? >> i did. i did. you have them. >> you did send them? interesting. i never got them. thanks, sylvia. >> no problem. thanks. when we come back, a major fashion brand in talks to join the likes of express and toys r us. we have that story next. later, the ceo of barnes & noble to talk about the book business and hid dolayemand and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. s under the tree. i love him! and weathertech gifts are always special too. vehicles are protected with laser measured floorliners for the front and middle... plus a cargo liner for the rear...

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>> welcome back, everybody. parent company of bonobs is nearing a deal to buy vera wang. it is owner of toys r us. the deal to buy vera wang is expected to be announced this morning. no details on the price tag. when we come back, more on "squawk box." new report saying apple is working on thinner iphones and models with foldable screens. yes, that's what i said. foldable screens. samsung does it, but apple's never done it. we'll see what that looks like and talk about it. later, house majority whip tom emmer will join us as

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. take a look at futures. take a look at bitcoin. dow up 26. nasdaq up 60. the s&p up 6. apple news. apple preparing major changes to the lineup of phones and also other products in addition to that. the company planning to introduce an iphone thinner than the 8 millimeter models and cheaper than pro models. it will have a simpler camera to reduce costs. the company planning foldable devices. samsung has had foldable devices, but apple has not. this is the size of an ipad or larger that itself would fold.

samsung has the foldable versions of the galaxy phone. it has remained mostly a niche device in part because of the concern of the fold in the screen. i don't know if you ever played with the samsung. >> the fold. you can get which it sticks later on. >> the newest samsung galaxy doesn't have that problem. the early phones had the fold problem. there is a view if you fold it 100,000 times, it will happen. >> if you figure out the problems with it, it seems like a phenomenal thing as long as it's not too fat in your pocket. >> i want the battery to last longer. i don't care about the a.i. i'll supply the intelligence. i don't need anything artificial. i think i'm at 80% now and this is a brand new phone.

what's yours? >> mine is 99%. my battery health? it's down. probably 80. >> i got a nice case. i'm a simple person. this keeps going on and off, the charger. i have a lot of growing pains. >> we'll work on it. you'll be okay. german automaker volkswagen resuming talks with european labor unions as pressure is mounting to close plants. phil lebeau has latest on that. hey, phil. >> reporter: hi, becky. there will be meetings today in germany between the works council which represents labor unions and management of volkswagen. they had meetings the beginning of last week and week before that to try to come to resolution in term of cost cuts because volkswagen needs to cut its costs. that has not been disputed by anybody. the question is how will they do it? they want a 10% wage reduction and elimination of bonuses and

closure, this is the one that is a huge issue in germany, the closure of at least three plants. the reason why is because volkswagen, like all of the legacy automakers, is being squeezed right now. q3 operating profit down 42% compared to the same quarter of last year. q3 vehicle sales, the number of units shipped down 8.3% compared to last year. it's already cut the 2024 financial guidance twice and they are looking at a 2025 that could get really ugly unless they come to agreement in cost cuts. the shares of volkswagen in the last year like so many legacy automakers is struggling. let's look at volkswagen versus gm and toyota. as we do that, let me point out volkswagen, yes, europe and germany, the biggest market where there's intense competition that is cutting into their profits and their sales, including from chinese automakers.

in china, where it used to be number one, those days are long gone. their sales through q3 this year down 10%. that's the region that's killing them relative to the last couple years. they will have those meetings today. if they cannot reach at least some negotiating where they say, okay, we need to come to common ground, then they will put this off to 2025 and there is the possibility that you could see widespread strikes early next year because the labor, the manual labor and daily labor on the line in germany have said time and again we will not accept plant closures. we will go on strike. we will make things messy here unless you find a way of cutting costs without cutting these plants. >> phil, just in terms of all of this, with the labor union talks what's the biggest usual you

that could be an impediment here in. >> closing plants. they have never done it in germany. we have seen it here in the united states. remember the pain that general motors and ford and chrysler went through in the '70s and '80s on a large scale? they've never done that in germany. as a result, there are more than a few people who said you've got to do this. the competition is so intense in europe especially that you cannot afford to have as many plants and as many jobs as you have had for decades. >> okay. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. >> you bet. when we come back, a lot more on "squawk." a new piece in the journal saying ceos want trump to change course on tariffs. he is not budging. we will have that after the break. you can get the stf be o quarter squawk pod on your favorite

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welcome back to "squawk box." as the country pre-pares for trump to take office, we have others preparing for the tariffs. we have the professor at yale law school. oren kass is here. executive director of american compass. good morning to you both. i want to understand what companies should be doing and can be doing to get ahead of this to the extent there is something to get ahead of, natasha. >> you kind of understand where the ceo is coming from on the tariff agenda because it feels like there are two competing strands of the trump economic agenda. on the one hand, there is the view of disproven by imperial

evidence, if you do tax cuts, they are pro growth. extend the tax cuts. that's $5 trillion. cut the tax rate. you stimulate growth and get investment. on the other hand, there is the singular focus on tariffs as a tool and eliminating the trade deficit. those are in some conflict because if you do get your growth and you get your investment, what happens is demand goes up and imports go up. foreign capital investment in the u.s. will go up. the trade deficit will go up. so, i think what business leaders are grappling with is the trump administration going to focus on trying to grow the economy or eliminating the trade deficit, this broad based program of tariffs, that will ultimately shrink the economy. i think that's frankly what we all should be hoping for as

well. >> oren, angel or devil, all throw in the mix to the question which is how much negotiating leverage do you really have if everybody knows it's a negotiation? >> i don't think it is a negotiation in this case. first of all, i think trump on the higher tariffs with china and in particular, the global tariff has been consistent on this for a uple of years now. i guess i don't understand the devil and the angel thing. the reality is what natasha is just describing if you just do tax cuts and pursue a model of quote growth, that is good for corporate fits. i don't doubt that. it's not actually good for the economic growth in the country. this is the story that economists have been telling going all the way back to when we welcome china into the wto

almost 25 years ago and the reality is it did not work. we does id not get higher invest or higher growth. we got lower growth. it seems these are complementary policies. if you want lower taxes to induce investment, you need to pair with tariffs to create investment to actually happen in this country. by the way, you also need the tariffs if you are going to pay for any of the tax cuts. >> well, that's if you pursue the tax cuts the way you describe them. then there's the cost question which is what is it going to do to costs and, therefore, the inflation story. >> well, i think we have imperial evidence if we go back to the last round of tariffs that trump imposed in 2018 which the biden administration maintained and extended which is that the impact on costs was minimal. i think, you know, if you think about the share of products that

are imported or think about the size of the tariff people are talking about imposing, yes, you would expect some effect on the price level, but go back and play all your morning shows from 2018 and 2019 and try to find the one where everybody was worried about inflation surging out of control. it didn't happen. the inflation phenomenon is a consequence of the catastrophically bad job the biden administration used in a totally different direction. if you have the kinds of proposals that trump is talking about, what you will see is temporary frankly in a lot of cases, isolated effects on price levels, but you also see that investment in expanding capacity and driving down costs in this country which is again what we're actually looking for. if we want healthy growth, the question is how do we get investment and production

happening in the united states. not how do we drive up higher costs with cheaper imports >> hold on a second, natasha. oren, our main beef is higher corporate taxes or lower corporate taxes. can we keep corporate taxes where they are if the tariffs were significant enough to allow to stay at 21? i'm trying to reach a negotiating position. are you dead set on higher? can you leave it at 21 if you get the tariffs you want? >> you certainly could. i appreciate you raising that, joe. i'm not dead set on raising any particular tax rate. i would love to see tax rates be low wherever they can be. what i am dead set on being fiscally responsible. i think for a long time, the republican party took this attitude that tax cuts would

quote pay for themselves and they did not. we created larger deficits which impose a real drag on the economy. i think a lot of the best economic research shows that all of the theories of supply side tax cuts and spurring investment pretty much go out the window if you do it all with deficits. so, what i would love to see is a fiscally responsible plan that keeps rates as low as possible, but pays for anything that we do and it is really encouraging to see up and down from all of the house leadership to, you know, treasury nominee scott bessent emphasizing the things we do on taxes have to be paid for. tariffs can help do that and that is moving us toward an actual productive economic policy that will get the country back on track. >> natasha, i know you wanted to jump in on the comment on the tax and tariff piece. i'll leave that to you. >> oren, i think there is a space for us to have a

conversation about particular tariffs and context and value, but this idea that 20% across the board tariffs are not going to be extremely inflationary is just nonsensical. you don't have to believe me. many of those ceos in the wall street journal story is a holiday seasongood and good ti talk about toy companies. if you look at the price of toys today, a majority of them imported from china. a world in which a tonka truck costs $30. next year, expect it to cost $45. in an election year with the inflation referendum, you are thinking about the set of policies that is going to amount to a tax increase on households of somewhere between $2,000 to $7,000 on average as a result of the price increases.

the idea of somehow doing this is going to be good for the economy because you will stimulate manufacturing employment or american production is just, i know that's the thing you said, oren, it's just not true and not true imperially. we did the tariffs in the first trump administration and we now can look at the data. what the data says is sure protectionism is good, but you have the countervailing forces that you are raising the price of inputs because a bunch of car parts, even for cars manufactured in the u.s. are coming from other countries and you are getting a ton of retaliatory tariffs from other countries. it is not canada and mexico saying, we will not do anything. they will be forced to react. you are getting into a trade war and that trade war has no winners.

>> natasha and oren, it is a longer conversation. the good news is we get to have it. thank you so much for it. nice to see you guys this morning. happy holidays. >> thank you so much. coming up, today's top global stories and including data from china overnight and a surprise downgrade of france's credit rating. tomorrow, peter navarro will join us. president-elect trump picked him for the administration. quk x"ilbeig bk."sawbo wl rhtac

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let's take a look at some global stories. some of the top ones this

morning. china's november retail sales rose by 3%. estimates were for 4.6% and real estate investment continued to decline year over year. one bright spot is industrial proper pro-duction for november expectations. moody's downgrading france's credit rating. it doubts the government can fix the fiscal problems. when we come back, we have a check on the consumer ahead of the holidays. we will talk to one of the founders of more than 260 restaurants and get what he is seeing when it comes to demand from consumers and what people are willing to spend at restaurants and what he is seeing in the inflation picture. later, former fed vice chair roger ferguson will join us ahead of the last fed meeting of the year.

stay tuned. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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welcome back, everybody. inflation in focus as the fed prepares for its final meeting of the year. our next guest is here to give us a realtime read on the consumer. his company owns more than 260 restaurants across 22 states and says that the peak of inflation is past us and consumer confidence is back. joining us right now is andrew smith. he is savory's co-founder. thank you very much for being with us. first up, tell us just what you're seeing in the restaurants right now? how willing are people to come into the restaurants and when they do, how much are they spending? well, it's nice because we're starting to see people come

back. i think that all we always think and say, bad times pass, tough times pass and with savory, we're final seeing traffic come back. we feel like the american consumer is tired of waiting and i think they're excited to come back in the restaurants. we're seeing not only traffic come back but spending come back too. we're actually seeing the ticket increase as well for what they're willing to spend. >> when did consumers stop going out to eat? i didn't realize there had been a downtrend based on some of the things we've heard nationally? >> i don't think ever. i think this is something people -- it's the third place for unwinding and connecting. i've always been a huge believer and that's why i invested so much into this industry and continue to because people want to break bread with friends and families and colleagues across a table. it really hasn't gone down. it's always been an industry that has continued to increase and grow over the last 30 years. but there has been pressure.

the inflation pressure on the consumer has been tough. they've had less money to spend. the one thing we have seen over the last couple years as you have reported on is wage inflation. for the first time we've seen wages increase more than inflation has this last quarter and we're feeling it in the restaurants. >> let's talk about that. the consumers willingness to go into restaurants over the course of this year when did it ebb and start coming back as you mentioned? >> we felt it was tougher in q1. q2 i think there was a lot of resistance to going out as much. i think the frequency was down. also what they were spending was down. we saw tickets come down because they were skipping the appetizers or skipping the drink and sharing a meal occasionally when they come in as well, so the repetition of the consumer or the frequency was definitely down throughout the summer as well. i think when you're in an election year as well as we've seen in the past people tend to wait and see. i don't think it matters as much which side of the aisle you're on other than you don't know what's going to happen so you

sit on your fingers. once the election had passed or at least the nominee had been -- become clear, people started spending. the last three weeks alone we've seen an uptick over 2023 pretty consistently across the country. >> so the inflation picture, you thought really kind of peaked out and was not great from january heading into september. what changed in september? >> i think that the -- like i said the inflation feeling had come down and i think the consumers not only had saved money, we're seeing information from jpmorgan show that a lot of the american consumer had saved quite a bit of their money as they have had wages go up. they've had additional money to spend. i think that coming into this last quarter of the year we're seeing the money being spent not only on frequency but the ticket. so we feel confident going into 2025 there's going to be a resurgence, a stabilization year, because that's what we're seeing going into the end of this year. as we listen to our consumers as well, the the ig that we're hearing is not price.

it used to be that people were always complaining about price. things are so expensive. your menu prices have gone up. those that have taken too much price have hurt their business because they're not seeing the traffic come back. their prices are too high. the thing we're hearing across the country is people really are wanting to have speed and accuracy, which is the the ig that they're most keen on. they want to make sure that they can get in and out of the restaurant or through the drive-through as fast as possible because they're on the go and they want accuracy in their orders. that's really an indication for me it's not as much about price or inflation not hitting the wallet as much, it's about them moving on with their life, which i think we all want to do. >> you have been growing at a really rapid clip. you opened 67 new restaurants this past year and you're looking to open another 76 restaurants in 2025. what's most important to you just in terms of continuing that growth? is it access to capital?

is it the rate of the -- the rate you're going to be paying on the loans you take out on some of these things? is it feeling just good about how business is in general? you're moving into four new states too which is tricky. what's most important to continue that sort of growth? >> it's always been our outlook to grow in kind of the face of headwinds. for us this year it was a tougher year, but at the same time we added units for our different portfolio brands. this next year we feel it's not only going to be a resurgence year but a stabilization year. there's deals to be had, too. i think those that can access capital, which we have access to capital, it's the time to grow. and i think there's also been a lot of the older brands that have failed to listen to the consumer and pivot and refresh their brands, which i'm sure you and i have gone to many brands in the past we kind of think why have they done nothing to

reinvent or refresh their brands. those brands are falling to the wayside. in the emerging set which is really where we play those emerging brands are starting to take a lot of wallet share from the larger brands that have failed to do so. going into next year we hope to do at a minimum 76. we hope to have more opportunity to real estate which is presenting itself and again, access to capital is key and we feel like with the interest rates that's going to provide opportunity not only to us but each of our brands and the counterparts in the industry as well which we talk to. we talk to ceos of other brands and we're all feeling like this is the year to getting back to business, not playing in a defensive mode but play in an offensive mode. >> managing director and co-founder of the savory restaurant group. thanks a lot are to your time. >> thank you so much, becky. it is just now after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick.

a lot going on this morning. when we return or not when we return, as we move on, a couple of top stories to tell you about. take a look at this. microstrategy chairs shareholders are moving higher, the company joining the index december 23rd. microstrategy sold enterprise software but has become a bitcoin holding company. palantir and access enterprises joining the nasdaq 100 and you will see those shares just get bought up because they have to be given that they're in that index. as for bitcoin crypto currency hitting $106,000 last night and you can take a look at where it is right now. it's down about 103, $104,000. apple ceo tim cook meeting with president-elect trump on friday at mar-a-lago. after the meeting the two men later dined at trump's resort and we should mention that apple's reported planning to introduce new products including

potentially foldable devices and then there's this, softbank's masa son visiting with president-elect and cnbc sara eisen reporting the softbank ceo expected to announce plans to invest $100 billion in the united states over the next four years. by the way, potentially creating 100,000 jobs. it would be great if it happens. >> yeah. >> let's check the futures this morning. you can see that we have some green across the board. we'll look at treasuries and talk to roger ferguson later. fed has a two-day meeting this week. let's get to dom chu with the latest edition of sectornomics. did you come up with that ? >> i did not. it's catchy talking about the sectors and stock market and the economics behind it. joe, becky, andrew, to that point the top three sectors have been communication services up about 43%, technology up 38% and

consumer discretionary35%. those are the mag seven sectors. the s&p up 27%. none of the big wall street strategists were optimistic enough at the start of the year to have that in their forecast. of the 15 firms we're tracking the average forecast for the 2025 forecast is for 6 -- 6,630, 9.5% higher than today's s&p 500. we turned to the sectors to see what most bullishness was in terms of where the sectors are and which sectors are going to be in the new year with the bearish sentiment as well. having gone through the notes the strategists like the financials the most in terms of the sectors, ranked fourth out of 11 this year, up 31%. tech the second most favored sector but the second best performer this year up 38%. consumer discretionary came in third up about 35% in 2024 and fourth is industrials up about 20% year-to-date. these kind of in the middle of

the pack in terms of sectors this year. on the bearish side of things, consumer staples the most sector mentioned the most as the least favorite of strategists. it's up about 17% so far in 2024. the second one is health where strategists were unenthusiastic due in part to the potential of maybe more regulation and a few strategists wrote about the possibility of lower vaccinations and things like that in the upcoming administration. the sector is up this year. the worst performer up about 3%. energy came in third in terms of the sectors that the strategists like the least, up 5.7% so far this year. that's kind of your state of play as to where the wall street strategist forecasts the most favored and least favored sectors will be. we'll see if that comes to fruition in 2025. >> okay. dom, thanks for that. >> sure. >> i think we'll check back with you later. >> you got it. when we come back, what investors can expect from the fed this week and what it means heading into the new year.

plus, elon musk getting ready for this next challenge. that would be slashing government spending. musk's biographer walter isaacson will join us to talk about the d.o.g.e. agenda and much more at 7:30 a.m. eastern time. "squawk box" will be right back.

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up we've all been waiting for followed by a couple other central banks that will be meeting this week as well. are you expecting anything other than the fed to cut 25 basis points? >> well, i wish they wouldn't, but they're not going to listen to me and they will do what they want to do and what they seem to be signaling they want to do 25 basis points. it's been increasingly described as being a hawkish cut, meaning they'll cut 25 basis points and then fed chair jerome powell in his press conference will take -- take back any notion that it's -- there are going to be a lot more cuts right away. i think there could be a signal there will be a pause. >> why do you wish they wouldn't cut? >> well, look, i think the reason they want to cut, they have this perception that the level of the fed funds rate is too restrictive and that just doesn't jive with what the markets are saying. i mean are they looking at -- to they have a screen in their

office? they should see the stock market is at all time high, gold is at an all-time high, bitcoin is at an all-time high and the economic data is strong. we have real gdp at an all-time high increasing around 3% on year over year percent basis and inflation has come down. it's closer to 2%, but it seems to be getting a little sticky here. kind of getting stuck a little bit north of 2%. but look, the goal here is to have full employment. we're around 4% and we've got an inflationary that's close to 2%. everything to me suggests interest rates are where they should be. >> the commentary we've gotten from the fed also gets into this idea that okay, we're going to cut this time potentially but then slow it down and look around because we want to see how things are changing. if that's the case i'm with you. why not wait and cut in january if you think there's still a need for it? >> yeah. the last word we got from fed chair jerome powell was the

economy is strong and we're -- we don't need to rush to lower interest rates. if that's the case why would you do something on wednesday? >> yeah. i think i'm in your camp on that. let's assume they go ahead with this cut. >> sure. >> what are the potential dangers to that? i think the biggest one i could think of is if inflation really does come back up, they're going to have to reverse course and they're going to have more ground to make up for if you add this other 25 basis points now? >> i think there's a bit of a credibility issue here. more of us looking at it are wondering where they're coming up with the idea that interest rates are restrictive. the risk is a melt up. it's not the end of the world. the problem with the word "melt up" it clearly implies a meltdown. we'll know if there was a melt up if there was a meltdown. doesn't have to be a repeat of

99- 99- 992000. i don't see a recession out there, but meanwhile right up ahead here, i think there's going to be a lot of selling in january. there's tremendous capital gains, might be more of them between now and year end, and the traditional santa claus rally and i think a lot of people are going to want to rebalance their portfolios. maybe they have too much in nvidia, too much apple, too much tesla and there could be significant rebalancing, which means selling. on the other hand there will be buying. i think all in all it will be an opportunity to buy, and like for the market and the next year 7,000. >> but the reason you think the selling will come is because people will wait until january so they don't have to pay the tax bill for another year? >> i think that and the recognition that the fed is done for a while. >> okay. that's an interesting point. which is more important? the idea that the fed may be done or concern about any, you know -- there's a lot of enthusiasm in the business world

about president trump coming in with these new policies that are much more friendly to business. >> right. >> the concern on the other side of that what happens with tariffs? >> sure. >> can we get the tax bill passed again? all those issues going from this is great in theory to now we have to work out the details? >> i think that's correct. there's the theory and then the reality. the reality has to deal with a lot of political intrigue in washington, a lot of -- it takes a while to get these things through. when trump came in during his first term, the tax cuts didn't happen until the end of 2017 and they weren't implemented until 2018, so it could take a while to get these things through. the president and his advisors would like to ram through the whole program in one big bill. the problem with that is, there's a lot of moving parts and it's kind of like taking

various medications for the same ailment and not checking out what the interactions are. there could be unintended consequences. some positive, some negative. all in all, i think it does add up to a pro-business attitude and i think the market has already discounted a lot of that. >> 2017 tax package, those tax cuts, they expire, if they are not passed again this year -- >> right. >> -- it's been this understanding, don't worry the tax cuts are going to continue. neither side, democrats or republicans, would like to raise taxes when it comes on some of these issues. but maybe that's a little too simple when you understand how the sausage gets made in washington, how ugly that can be. the president does not have a big majority. it's only three votes, actually in the beginning of the term one vote in the house. has anybody kind of thought through what happens if those tax cuts don't get passed? or is that just an unthinkable

kind of like -- >> well, again, that's a great point. i think back to the matter, the founders came up with a system of checks and balances and wall street and financial community we call it gridlock, and that's a conceivable scenario. it is a very close margin they have in the house and it could take a while. >> okay. well that gives us something to think about. ed, thank you, as always. we will talk soon. >> thank you. >> coming up, the trump agenda on capitol hill house majority whip tom emmer of minnesota joins us next to talk tariffs, taxes, china and more, right quk x"omg ghk. "sawbo cinrit back. ♪ (agent) we've always said never sell a house in the winter.

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republicans are looking ahead to president-elect trump's return to the white house now that they control both the house and the senate. joining us now is a look at the trump agenda house majority whip congressman tom emmer. we can get congressman right into like specifics or we can just talk about the sort of the general likelihood that it's a different type of caucus now

with president trump, president-elect trump, sort of presiding over the republican o know what would you call the last -- the last two years, i don't know what you call that. the -- the margin could be less than it was. is it going to be trouble to get anything done again? >> good to be with you this morning, joe. it's always going to have people running into each other. they have disagreements. they have to work through differences. but we showed that you can do amazing things with just 220, 221 members. many times over the summer we had even less than that, so it can get done. like you point out, at the outset, change is coming. donald j. trump is going to be in the white house and that's going to be helpful. >> what does that mean for like budget talks and all that drama that we kicked the can down the

road almost every time? will we have a budget? >> yeah. well, you're going to. you're going to have to have a budget right away next year. we swear in the next congress. the goal would be to have one down, our chairman is shooting to have the first one done some time in january so they can move on reconciliation. shortly after that, after the senate acts. then there's another shot at reconciliation later next year. in fact, joe, you could do three reconciliation bills next year. i think that's unlikely, but you probably will see one out of the gate, which means you have to pass a budget right away. >> what's the mood for having mike johnson sort of be able to take a little breath about his chances for, you know, for being a long-time speaker? is that going to happen? >> mike is fine. mike is right now negotiating the end of the year deal. he will be re-elected speaker on january 3rd and we'll be getting

to work on day one. >> and the tax cuts? extended? what about the s.a.l.t. caps? do you have any idea -- what's the prevailing wisdom for what's going to happen? >> we don't know yet what the ultimate language is going to be on specific issues, but the tax cuts and jobs act, those policies are going to be extended, joe. if you look at what would happen, neither republicans nor democrats nor any american, wants to sea a 4 to $5 trillion tax increase on all americans. and that's what would happen if you let these expire. look for the trump administration, the republican house and the republican senate, to enact those as permanent policies so we don't have this whipsaw effect every four to eight years and businesses in this country can have some certainty and clarity as to what the future looks like. it's only going to help explode our economic growth, joe. >> you've been a legislature for

a while. what will elon musk and ramaswamy and d.o.g.e., what is possible and what will -- what isn't possible and will need help from you and your friends? >> i think first off, donald trump was elected with a mandate from the american people. they want to see change. this place has been broken for a long time. not doing a budget. there hasn't been a normal process i would argue for 30 years. we keep kicking the can down the road, republicans and democrats. this president has made a point that's going to change. now he can do a lot on his own, but he's also going to need legislative work done as well and when you talk about elon and vivek, joe, you can't fix what's broken with people who were on the inside that have responsibility for breaking it. you have to bring people from the outside with fresh new ideas, which i think you're seeing not just with the idea of

d.o.g.e., but seeing it with all of trump's cabinet picks. it's actually a rather exciting time in america. i think americans are looking forward to what's to come. >> i saw conflicting articles actually about different things. one said that a lot of ceos have gone in to try to get the president-elect maybe to, i don't know, some carve outs. everybody is in for their own -- their own self-interests on the tariffs and getting know where on the tariffs. then i saw some of the president's people are worried he might be wavering on some of the tougher issues with, i don't know, deportation, immigration, and exactly, you know, how far he keeps -- you know how far he goes on some of his campaign promises there. is that what you're seeing too? that the tariffs a given but there's wiggle room with -- you know, with how much we do on immigration? >> look, unlike the biden-harris

administration, donald j. trump is going to put america first again. when he talks about tariffs, joe, he is a master negotiator. tariffs are a common sense policy tool that he can use in those negotiations, and he's that way with every issue on the table, and i'm confident of this, that donald trump made promises on the campaign trail. we've seen him do that before, and he keeps his promises. so buckle in and get ready for a fun ride. >> you've been back to your home state? i know the vikings play -- i think they play two games tonight, weird. but have you been back to minnesota lately? have you seen the governor? what's he up to? >> oh, i -- timmy, i'm not sure. he's trying to resurrect himself after the -- after the awful campaign that they ran. but in minnesota, the great thing is, we're going into

christmas, making ice and yes, the vikings are only going to play one game tonight, the bears, and hopefully they are in first place after the game. >> there's two monday night games, did you know that? >> i understand. i do. >> i didn't. >> you know what i was thinking who didn't play, actually came up with three of the teams the bears didn't play, the raiders didn't play, vikings didn't play, and the falcons did not play. >> i don't know. >> but i was saying who did i not lose money on yesterday, tom, and i came up with those. >> the only ones you didn't lose money on. >> were the ones that -- i actually wonast night, the game which was a miracle. all right. still, you know, people in minnesota, you remind me of -- plain spoken, you know, sort of -- >> smiles. >> you're nice. you smile. you say real good. and you speak fargo sort of like the movie.

thanks, congressman, majority whip emmer. hope so see you again soon. >> thanks, joe. >> coming up, we're going to talk about the mystery that is the drones over new jersey and new york. they appear to be intensifying. homeland security saying it is taking action, but still, no real answers on what is actually happening here. why are we seeing these sightings? are they really increasing? is it government drones? what is this? we're going to talk about it when "squawk box" returns. build their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the boot strapper. the boot maker. hee-ha. but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice, every day, over a million multi-millionaires, trust schwab with more than three trillion dollars of their wealth. ♪♪ store closes in five.

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the new york city area has been captivated by drone sightings and speculation. the rash of sightings has prompted government officials to take action. homeland security secretary alejandro mayorkas says the government has deployed resources to assist the new jersey police to address the drone sightings. kathy hochul announced the federal government will deploy a drone detection system to aid in investigations. it has become something that pops up everywhere.

on my ring sightings on the neighbor's function, constantly people saying that they are seeing drones out there. there's footage that has been posted all over social media again with ai, you don't know what's real and not for some of these issues. some of the -- some of the things that have been said are, look, you're seeing airplanes a lot of times -- >> seeing airplanes and other people putting up drones to look at the drones. >> and then the faa which last year decided that it was okay to be flying drones at night, so you're going to see a lot more of these things. you have commercial applications like amazon where they're using drones to deliver things. all of this bringing up questions about what's happening, how safe we are. what we've heard so far from elected officials has not been exactly something that calms you down or makes you think about it. we don't know who it is but we're sure it's safe. we don't know what's happening here. we'll talk to congresswoman mikie sherelle later this

morning for more on what she's hearing and knows and what we can say about it all. when we come back, elon musk's biographer walter isaacson will join us here on set and we'll get into the d.o.g.e. agenda and so much more with the man who has wtt about elon musk so well. when "squawk box" returns after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." our next guest is going to weigh in on the latest with elon musk and d.o.g.e. want to welcome elon musk biographer walter isaacson advisory partner, a tulane professor, cnbc contributor and a legend, all of the above. >> friend of the show. >> of course. >> young legend. >> young legend. >> yeah. >> so, walter, help us understand, i mean you spent an extraordinary amount of time with elon working on the book. >> yeah. >> did you see this come -- i don't think we've really talked to you since all of this has happened. >> oh, yeah. definitely the book shows his frustration with government. it shows him becoming much more of a trump supporter. it has chapters called "the rabbit hole" where he really gets into this information ecosystem that he helped create.

he's very eager to put on his super hero's cape and do to the federal government or in the federal government what he did when he arrived at twitter and got rid of 80% of the employees and still running the show there. i think he will do what he did at -- >> what do you think is possible? part of the big question is what can be done with executive orders and what can be done with congress? he may be influential within congress, given that the congress is a republican -- both congress and the senate -- >> i think he will have democratic support in congress for some of what he does and i think a lot more is possible -- >> when you say a lot, put it on the table. >> take the defense department. >> the big numbers of the defense department. >> i think he can and will or they can and will actually go into the defense department and look at things like the f-35 fighter, is that even something yoneed in this day and able? look at why the procurement system is this way? he has people like steve davis

who has done everything from the boring company to twitter and people like antonio grassi saying you can't have a manufacturing or procurement system this way and i think he will gut some of it. >> part of the issue is whether he's going to be able to successfully tell congress people in certain districts that have relied on certain industries you know what, we're not doing that anymore, right? it's not just identifying the problem, it's going to be then sort of persuading people who might be unpersuadable. >> although is it easy to persuade when you can put it on x and post it and have people saying this is wasteful spending -- >> i think he has a lot of arrows in his quiver to fight off people who resist him and trump will support him in all of these things. it will be very hard to say no. let's protect the spending and trying to protect in alabama where they might be doing some

type of eing system and protect it. we'll see. the biggest difference, what you put your finger on, when he went into twitter and did all this, he owned twitter. he does not own the federal government. but if you had to ask me to bet, he'll have a lot more impact. >> do you think he's able to conquer health care? >> health care, the policies of it, are really difficult, but yes, i think he would -- if he could, and this is what i don't think he can do, disrupt the whole process of a mix of insurance and employee and insurance and mandates and whatever. i think that will be a place where slashing the regulations is -- will come into play. >> can i ask, if he's getting into the weeds, boeing has serious problems and -- >> that's -- >> they have not been able to deliver time after time. the answer has always been, there's no alternative. so we're sticking with these things and do the best we can within this ecosystem. is his point going to be,

they're not doing it right, and by the way, i can do it better, so that there's no longer -- like the same kind of stranglehold? do you see him getting into manufacturing airplanes? >> i don't think so. but this is an interesting area because a lot of what he would do -- let's say get rid of the sls space system which is a nightmare, sort of the government usual procurement process that leads you to boeing and other things, that, obviously, benefits spacex. and you get rid of some of the highway transportation safety regulations reporting, that benefits autonomous vehicles. so clearly he'll benefit from some of this, but i don't know that that's the main goal. >> that is part of the problem, that there is not an alternative. we need boeing. it's an american manufacturer that's an amazing manufacturer, but when the only competitor is airbus and airbus -- >> you're talking about for airlines, not space travel. >> yeah.

not just. >> yeah. i mean -- but you have to remember donald trump even with air force one took on boeing at some point, but yes, i think one roblem we have an america that's writ large, is we used to be a nation of entrepreneurs and risk takers who make a company and then become a nation of regulators and rule makers and you can't get things done, and i think you see that in many industries. >> different question, we've now seen a whole number of ceos go down to mar-a-lago to have dinner with the president. we have a number of big companies that are now contributing to his inaugural event. historically have never contributed before. facebook had never contributed before, for example, or meta i should say and others. what do you make of that? >> the word cow towing comes

from the emperor in china and that's what you're seeing. in a broader sense, one of the things that could be a problem for the administration and has been around the world when you have very strong leadership, is this whiff not of -- corruption may be too much to say, but the whiff of cow towing and payoffs and might get his hotel back in washington and everybody will have to stay there or that people join mar-a-lago. i think that could turn people off a lot. but i think you're seeing these companies, tim cook is down there, showing him the new foldable phone. that's understandable, but it's clearly a lot going on. >> do you think that the relationship that elon musk enjoys with the president or that the president enjoys with elon musk -- >> yeah. >> -- remains? i ask because there have been, as you know, falling out over the years -- by the way with both of these gentlemen with

lots of people. >> you just answered. the data points we have you often have falling outs and often have rubble in the wake, and yeah, this is not exactly the most stable bromance if you were writing a movie because elon musk has never worked for anybody before and donald trump has never shared the limelight very generously with people before. at the moment they've got a common cause and that is going to keep them together. >> do you think that -- that the business community came to grips which a second trump presidency and said okay, i'm going to go along with it? or do you think that all along the business community was hoping for trump to win? because we heard time and time and time again from harris supporters that there were no fortune 500 ceos backing trump. he didn't have -- we heard so many articles like that. we saw so many articles written

about d.c. people that actually liked kamala harris, economists that actually liked kamala harris. now suddenly we attribute everything to the feeling that business is going to do much better with less regulation. is that because they're looking at the reality of the situation? to me it was obvious all along who would be preferable for business. why didn't we see people honest about the candidate that would be better -- >> i think from being at this table you know that business is not just one group. >> you know what i'm saying. you heard zero ceos in the fortune 500 were backing trump. we had a bunch of retread old ceos that were supposedly backing kamala harris -- >> but joe -- >> but andrew you haven't seen the optimism -- >> i can answer the question for you. >> they're cow towing. >> you did not see the same

individuals declaring their love for president-elect trump before. i'm not making a judgment. it's the facts. empirically. >> it was b.s. son felds -- it was b.s. a lot of it. >> which part? >> pat rts that -- >> the 100 ceos who signed the letter? >> the 100 -- the most famous ceo the guy from box or something. the biggest ceo he had. >> look, you can see that trump is going to do a lot of things that these business leaders are going to like -- >> he was always going to do that. >> i don't think they were being disingenuous -- >> they're willing to consider higher corporate tax rates and the end of the filibuster, all the things we talked about, banning frack, all the things, they could look the other way because trump was a mean person with bad tweets? >> i think there were definitely business leaders who supported harris and didn't support trump, and now they do see opportunities for business. everything is a mixed bag in this country. >> i think, let me ask you a

different question, as a media leader if you will, and somebody who has run a television network cnn and other things, i should say, cnn of a different generation, a different era almost at this point, but there was a settlement made over the weekend, disney the parent company of abc, over these comments that were made as part of the questions george stephanopoulos brought to bear on their weekend show or the sunday show. what do you think of he decision to settle? there's been critiques on both sides. what do you think is really happening here? >> i think it's problematic for the ability of the press to cover public figures. this is a case in which donald trump is the most public of all figures, and it didn't meet what george stephanopoulos said n my opinion, the standard the supreme court brought down, which is actual malice, knowing it's false and doing it to be defamatory. >> throwing the "rape" word around for someone that wasn't

convicted of rape? >> right. that's why -- >> what is it slander or libel? one you say, one you -- >> it's a -- it's in that area where if it's big public figure, you used to have more leeway to express opinions. >> you don't think they were worried about a negative outcome if the suit went through? >> juries these days are not exactly going to support the establishment press. >> by the way, it's not just that. it's also continuing lawsuit against who would be a sitting president at that point, which a whole lot of -- >> i can see why they did it. you've had a big, broad zone of how people could be -- and those who believe in free speech like the person to my right joe -- we want to keep some where you get to say things about public figures. >> but they -- >> you know, you know what you're saying is -- >> i know. >> conflating. there's saying things that -- you cannot call someone a rapist who is not convicted of rape.

>> yes. >> no matter how much you want him to be one. i don't -- you know -- >> i wouldn't do it, and i wouldn't say -- >> i know. >> i wouldn't be doing that. >> in your mind it was a mistake to settle the case? >> yeah, i think it causes a lot of problems. i think becky may be right, that if you went to a jury these days, it would be even worse if a jury found you much more libel for it and penalized them a lot more money and i can see why abc doesn't want to go into this administration embroiled in -- >> stephanopoulos was wrong, no two ways about it -- >> people say wrong things. >> correct. >> this in law it's questionable. >> right. >> knowingly presented a falsehood that was defamatory with -- >> i think that's the point, just to be clear, the law does not suggest -- the law, as it relates to this -- >> [ inaudible ]. >> you can say things that are wrong as long as you did not necessarily do so 100%

intentionally. >> right. >> that -- that -- there is a view, i think by most first amendment lawyers, that actually the case would be a strong one. again, the question is where a jury lands if it's a jury case. >> when i was at cnn, when i was at "time" we had a lot of libel cases. william westmoreland or ariel sharon and sometimes you said things that were wrong and you corrected them, but the law allows you a lot of leeway if you didn't have actual malice and you were doing it not knowing that you were saying something false. >> right. >> this is a gray area. joe can make a case -- >> it's interesting because the things sometimes said online as we know are so off the wall and so wrong -- >> this is the real question, like if you're going to do it, what happens now when people post on x or post on facebook things that are just way off base? are all of those things going to be subject to that standard?

>> stephanopoulos had to battle the perception he's an operative for years and years, and he was going to do a debate after he -- he had to cop to contributing t. it's not like it was just an accident for stephanopoulos to -- to -- at least in my opinion. i think he's -- serious issues in terms of objectivity. maybe we all do. >> i think we all do. >> walter, thank you. great to see you, sir. "squawk box" is coming right back after this. ♪♪ amazing. jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

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extra extra read all about it, the ceo of america's largest retail book seller barnes & noble will join us to talk expansion, consumer demand and mu me. quk x"ilbe right back.

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computing data centers join hive in driving digital innovation. hive digital technologies. big news for mahomes! i'm switching to iphone 16 pro at t-mobile! it's built for apple intelligence. that's like peanut butter on jelly... on gold. get four iphone 16 pro on us, plus four lines for $25 bucks. what a deal. ya'll giving it away too fast t-mobile, slow down. america's largest retail book seller exceeded its expansion plans for 2024. 57 new barnes & noble locations this year. you're going to open even more. that's the plan for 2025. joining us now to talk about the brick and mortar comeback consumer trends and more is james daunt, barnes & noble ceo. it's good to have you on. not only can you buy books

online, you can read books online. there's something called netflix so that no one reads anymore. yet the demise of your business once again was greatly exaggerated. business is great, is it not? >> the end has been called many times. television was going to stop kids reading and it's kept on going. books have always triumphed. amongst a young audience, huge diana miss m around young adults. >> i can explain best buy because you need help. i can explain barnes & noble too. i want to walk around through the shelves with a starbucks or whatever it is that happens to be there, that you can do. that's an experience that isn't the same -- >> it's discovery and it's a social space. >> different sections and you hold it in your hand and you page through. it's never going away, is it? >> i don't think so. as long as you do it well enough. you need to create lovely

spaces. book stores have to be friendly, open, and if you have them beautifully presented you're never going away. >> did you have to get your multichannel act together and is it totally together now? >> sadly no. we are trying to get it together. we're on the way of getting it together. what matters is we have physical stores which are each a little bit different, have real personality and fun to be in. >> is there a reason -- can you stay that way. >> do you have to embrace what everyone else -- do you have to do what everyone else is telling you to do or do this better? >> you should concentrate 100% on doing this better, but also like to use online, they like to reserve books, they like to use it to sort of just as a prop to the stores. it's the stores that matter and the book sellers in them. >> i bet when too big to fail didn't you go around and look at the displays and there would be, you know, 50 books on a table and there would be a little -- >> you wanted to be on the front table, a ladder focus.

>> can you do that online? you can't do that -- that's -- you hope there will always be a barnes. >> people are paying now for promotion on an amazon or on your site, right? >> they don't pay us. >> they don't pay you even on the website? >> in the stores or on the website. >> in the old days they did. >> in the old days we took most of our money that way. but that stopped in 2019 when i took over, and by giving each store total control over their curation you get much more dynamic stores and it's better now. >> even the greatest produced -- for example, "lord of the rings" amazing movie. best picture for return of the king. still not as good as reading the book. you still can't replicate that. >> and each reads it in a different way and over the ages. i read "lord of the rings" when i was 12 and reread it five years ago and it's fantastic. >> you can't do science fiction,

what your mind is capable of when reading it can never be replicated on any screen? i think your future is bright. >> are you capturing the 12-year-olds? the younger generations at this point? do they come and buy books? do they want to buy e-books? how does that work? >> if you're in our stores at sort of around 3:30, they will be quite empty, maybe not this time of year but generally. come in at 4:00 p.m. they will be full of kids as the school is empty. we are an absolute magnet for young people and then right through to young adults. that is where the real energy of the stores go. always has done. harry potter and the great things. >> take a harry potter or one of the romance -- teen romance novels does that bring kids out? it has to be something that grabs them. >> we have one month after month so it's -- it's part of what we do. it's different around the country. we've seen it with book talk, this huge explosion of young kids engaging with books and proper books. >> how concerned are you about

tariffses? and i ask because a majority of books today i believe are printed in china. >> actually a relatively small amount of color books. so if you buy a cookbook or something with lots of photographs and color in it it may come from the far east. black and white, the vast majority of what we do -- >> you're not concerned about the books going up. >> a lot of paper comes from canada. it's domestically printed on paper some sourced from canada in particular. >> what's the -- what's the average price point of a book these days? it's gone up materially. >> it's been relatively stable. a soft cover will cost you 18 bucks, hard covers are 25 to 30. more if they're big. but price has been -- inflation has not been our friend from a business perspective. books remain a good value. >> what can ai be used for for you? what would you use ai?

you don't need ai. >> we don't need ai. we don't. >> i'm glad there's some place that doesn't. >> how concerned are you that there's going to be a massive number of books, maybe not books sold in your store, digital books and other things, because just they can be created. >> there can be an explosion. that isn't in our stores. that's the power of the store, a curation. it is about book sellers deciding for their local community what are the books that interest our customers. it's that curation that a book store brings. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> nice to see you. >> it is 8:00 on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among our top stories today, sources tell cnbc's sara eisen that softbank's ceo masayoshi son will announce a $100 billion investment in the united states during a visit to president-elect trump's mar-a-lago residence in florida.

sources say masa son will use that to announce 100,000 jobs focusesed on ai and infrastructure. president-elect trump's transition team wants to cut support for electric stations in the united states. the report says that the plan includes measures aimed at blocking autos and battery materials from china. and honeywell says that its board is considering a potential separation of the company's aerospace business. the shares this morning up by about 3.25%. activist elliott investment management has called for a split of honeywell's aerospace and automation business since taking a $5 billion stake in the company. futures we have green on the screen. dow up 50, 60 points. nasdaq up 84 points. the s&p 500 up about 11 points. treasuries if we could. looking at the 10-year note at 3.71. i want to get over to dom chu who has a look at this morning's

premarket movers. >> good morning, andrew, becky and joe. start off with a look of shares of nvidia down roughly about half a percent right now. the chipmaker was named a top pick by bank of america for 2025 as analysts see deployments of nvidia's blackwell chip to drive momentum in that space, but uncertainties around blackwell's timing and softness in the gaming segment are weighing on some investor sentiment there. nvidia shares a monster year, down half a percent this morning. watching ford shares lower by over 2% as analysts at jefferies downgrade the automaker to an underperform rating from a prior hold and cut the target bucks to 9, it was 12 prior. citing broader concerns ranging from an inventory overhang to looming decisions on its presence in europe. also a widening gap between warranty provisions and related cash outflows on balance those shares off 2.5%. we'll end with a check on broadcom, after they hit a $1

trillion market cap following a huge stock surge after broadcom's fourth quarter report gaining on what the firm touts as massive opportunities in artificial intelligence and soaring demand for generative ai infrastructure. for more and other top analyst calls and big stories, head over to cnbc.com/pro. subscribers get more access to the detail and analysis behind some of those big calls of the day. joe, i'll send things back over to you guys. >> all right. very good. thanks. for more on the markets as we look ahead to this week's fed meeting let's bring in jason trenert, chairman and ceo of strategy partners. they will cut this week. >> they will. come hell or high water. >> good idea? >> personally i don't think so. i think some dude just bought a banana taped to a wall for $6

million. i think there's a lot of -- >> and then ate it. >> but it's conceptual. >> it's the certificate. >> yeah. >> i get it. >> yeah. >> my crazy vampire -- i had some -- >> you had a -- >> i never did. does anyone have certificates for those. >> you can still get -- >> less than they -- >> less than they used to -- >> does the fed -- okay. are they locked in to what they told us they were going to do from the forward guidance which no one likes anyway? >> i think so. i do think, to be fair, the fed is probably going to pause when we get into next year, and i hope they would just because -- >> figure core point is not the end of the world, let's do it. we said we would. >> i think that's it. i don't think it's a great reason, and there's -- financial conditions are easy. there's virtually no question about that. i also think there are signs that inflation is still with us.

>> exactly. what about spreads? where do the -- people that say we're absolutely in restrictive territory where do they get that? >> i don't -- >> they can give you numbers. >> they might be looking at the real fed funds rate and take a look at that. if you look at corporate credit spreads they're about as ight as you can get. >> does the fed know the labor market is softening? >> i think the fed -- the fed may have a hard time really making that case and may be some signs of that. >> what do they know that -- because inflation -- it seems like if i was going to be worried -- i think that should be their single mandate. >> agreed. and it was until the late '70s. >> even if not their single mandate, if the risks aren't equal on labor versus the strength -- you know, the stable currency, why not err on the side of the stable currency? >> i don't know. the biggest tax on working people, working-class people and middle-class people is inflation

by far, and easy money generally tends to benefit really rich people, right. that was especially true during qe. if you had a private portfolio you did great. a regular guy with a savings account you got zero for 12 years. i'm not a big fan of fed expanded powers which have been around for 14 years. >> you're saying another quarter point is not the end of the world and you do not think the fed is making a policy mistake that comes back to haunt them right now, do you? or is that possible that we have totally resurgent inflation with some of trump's policies and, you know -- >> i think, regardless of who was president, the chance of a second wave of inflation are quite high. it's partly because labor in the first wave of inflation always gets left behind, so their standard of living declips.nes. you're seeing generous, i don't

know if that's the right word, union concessions. boeing machinists get 38% over four years, longshoremen get 62% over six years, that's not consistent with 2% inflation. if you look at the atlanta fed's inflation dashboard, there are nine numbers on that list. only three of the nine have a 2 handle on it. the other six are in the 3s and 4s. so i would tap the brakes here. i don't know what the big rush to ease is. i know they're worried about this like the sahm rule and the unemployment rate moving igher. i'm not a big fan of the idea of being an active participant in a game. you need failure. you need companies to go out of business. you need those things to have proper capital markets. >> yeah. >> we need the jeds and the giants. >> yeah. >> otherwise -- >> you need give and take. a little -- >> are you going to be at

strategis next year? >> we'll see. we'll see how it -- >> are you talking -- >> we'll see how it goes. >> are you talking if. >> i've been down to palm beach. >> there's been speculation in the papers about -- >> that's right. we'll see how it goes. i'm happy to serve, but i'm thrilled to stay too. >> where is the breakers? you were at the breakers -- is that palm beach? >> yeah. >> the breakers or mar-a-lago. everybody goes to palm beach. >> i know. >> you went to this other place? >> i was actually in a -- >> it's valued at almost $2 million by the d.a. -- >> right. >> yeah. i think a lot of people would buy it for 2 million. >> close to 3 million. >> yeah. i think we could get a consortium together and buy it. >> all right. >> all right. >> good to see you. >> when we come back, a special interview with one of the top minds in ai on what the industry has accomplished this year and what could be in store for 2025. stay tuned.

you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc.

welcome back to "squawk box." this morning 2024 saw innovation from many ai large language models but apple's ceo said a deal this month he expects it to get more challenging. joining us is henry, a founder of ai consulting company laden space advisors, advises adobe and a former member of the partnership on ai. are you a believer there's a, quote, unquote, wall? sam altman says there isn't. i would say pa chi didn't say there was. he said it as going to get tougher. >> yeah. i think this is, obviously, a hot topic after a year of some pretty huge developments, particularly with large language models. i think the scaling roblem as it's referred to the real movement we've seen with ai over the last couple years have really come from this brute force approach of using huge

amounts of compute and data to really drive these models forward. what we're seeing is, you know, some slow downs yes, in computation, although that's less pressing, certainly still issues around energy and energy and powering the commute, but i think data is a real problem here. we have a finite amount of data in terms of the internet and places where we can source live fresh data. i think that is becoming a challenge particularly as we start to see legal issues around how companies are obtaining and using data become more and more prominent. so i'm not necessarily of the opinion we're going to see a complete halt to any progress for sure. i think i'm closer to sundar pichai's perspective there. i think it's clear in this year which has been huge for really big jumps, i think 2025 will be a bit slower. >> and when you think about the next component part of this, if you think the data is in smorts supply, the next generation is what they call synthetic data,

computers making up new data. can that data ever be the same quality data that would be, quote, unquote, original? >> yeah. this is one of the big questions around synthetic data. using ai to train or used to train new models. there has been some promise shop in this space. there are also some meaningful concerns about what's called ai model collapse, which is when synthetic training data or ai generated training data actually corrupts the models that is then used to train. and we've seen this particularly in the audio visual space. some indications that this would occur in the large model tech space too. it's a bit too early to say. i think this is something which is going to fundamentally kind of shape the future of how these models are trained. again, certain applications we're seeing some limited success, but again, if you're

talking about really large models that just require a huge amount of data it's less clear at the moment. >> in terms of investment, though, chips, obviously, are the game. infrastructure is the game. are the models themselves the game? so openai now valued at $157 billion. you have claw inside of anthropic. you have google which just came out with its new gemini last week. you have amazon now with its own model. do those models unto themselves have extraordinary value, or do you think that those -- the models themselves become almost commoditized? >> good questions. you're right we're seeing everyone coming out in the big tech atmosphere but others coming out with their own kinds of models. leaderboards with reliability and success changing weekly if not daily in terms of which is at the top challenging for the

title of the best. and some of these models do have meaningful differences in what they excel at. openai's a one, which is very good for reasoning. other models are much better and more generalized tasks. i think we're going to start to see perhaps certain models becoming more commoditized and when you look at meta's approach with open source the idea is to get the model into the hands of as many people and developers to build the foundations. at the same time there are going to be models that do excel in specific areas that means that that will be a key point and cornerstone of value for those organizations. it really depends, again, how quickly and how much more we can push the architectures that underlay these current models and how much we're waiting for a technical breakthrough around alignment, hallucinations and things like this. i think we're seeing some models moving towards the commoditized

perspective. >> want to thank you for joining us. >> thank you so much. >> show you if you play with it, claw, has now become the thing to use as a chat bot to talk to. it is unbelievable. >> how often do you use it? >> all the time. kevin wrote a fabulous piece about the community in the valley using it like many, many times a day. not to generate text or something, to ask questions about your life and what you should do. >> instead of hey google. >> no like i have a relationship issue help me. >> oh, my gosh. >> it is really good, and it has a great personality and it's -- it's unbelievable. >> you ask it personal questions too? >> i've played with it in that way to see what people are talking about. >> friends. >> you may not need friends. >> i've been reading a lot of people i was looking at a friend from microstrategy -- >> always going to need friends.

>> no. curate your friends. you don't need 100 friends. you need like five good friends and you need to whittle them down. >> i was also watching something -- >> curate where you go. >> online over the weekend. the school of thought that we are putting far too much pressure on our significant other, your boyfriend, girlfriend, husband, wife, whoever that may be. >> let claw do it. >> you expect them to carry all of the weight that your community used to carry. whether that's your friends, your church, your synagogue. >> maybe claw will do it for you. >> expect work to do that for us and our significant other to do that for us. >> try claw. it is cool. >> go back to your friends. one of the two. >> clod. >> claude. >> when we come back, we're going to speak with nba hall of famer tracy mcgrady on joining the ownership group of the nfl's buffalo bills. this is going to be a conversation you're not going to want to miss. "squawk box" right back.

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media giants have been making a number of moves. check out warner brothers discovery shares up 40% since july 24th when news broke that the company would be losing nba rights. julia boorstin joins us now with her fast forward look at what all these deals mean for the media industry. >> well, joe, media companies are separating their high growth from their mature businesses and

warner brothers discovery, couples comcast and others are creating ties to compete against the deep pocketed tech rivals. warner brothers discovery reorganization last week is the latest move of a media giant to boll ter assets with growth potential streaming in their content studios and separate out the linear assets that are struggling with cord cutting that will require innovation for hope of growth. following comcast spinning off its linear assets warner brothers discovery stock sky rocketed on the streaming from its linear networks. amid those reorgs and some write downs of cable assets, media frenemies are embracing new partnerships to shore up their linear businesses to enable streaming growth. this illustrated last week which warner brothers discovery and comcast expanding their deal for, among other things, distribution of stream service

max. charter spectrum and warner brothers discovery are giving max select video customers for free after the bundle of disney plus, hulu and max helped thrive growth. here's what to xpect now. more bundles of rival streamers to minimize user churn. for pay tv packages to fold in streaming apps like charter has to try to minimize cord cutting. and expect more cost-cutting and consolidation among linear networks like comcast and warner discovery or paramount assets. these frenemies are acting so friendly because amazon, netflix, apple and google are ramping up competition for streaming advertising, subscribers and content. those tech giants aren't bogged down at the linear networks. >> yeah. julia, they're not bogged down by quality content either, so i'm just -- that seems to be the

one thing that -- that -- that is across the board the most important thing regardless of how it's delivered or who owns it. some of these dramas, they're cheepg out on the production, on the writing. >> for which platform? for which platform? >> netflix. what's your favorite -- you got a good netflix? i tried to watch a couple of them. i wanted to -- you no know i'm e the person that has previously watched. i have 100 things, ten minutes for 100 things. if i can't make it to the end of the first episode i don't keep going. there is some really crappy stuff. >> joe, you may not be finding content that resonates for you. netflix has such massive global reach. what they're doing with sort of nation specific content with local language content that then has international appeal, i mean look at squid game. we have the second season of

"squid game" coming out. >> stupid. >> first original series was the most popular series. >> no. >> to stream around the world. >> no. i am a killer maybe. i don't like the new killers, though. >> that's the thing is that -- what netflix has done has been so profitable because they are so massive and so global. >> okay. but you see what i'm saying. there are great things that -- whether it's still cable or whether it moves to streaming or whether warner brothers owns it or spinco, there are things if you -- >> content is king. >> you get the content -- i've heard that. if you get the content down -- we're just moving around a lot of deck chairs unfortunately. >> it's about getting the content down. then it's a question of distribution. content is king. as redstone used to say. >> thanks, julia. meantime nba legends tracy mcgrady and vince carter, cousins and former teammates

join the ownership of the buffalo bills. the first time the team has brought in secondary shareholders. tracy mcgrady joins us now. seven-time nba all star and hall of famer founder and ceo of ones basketball league. good morning to you. how did this happen, tracy? >> good morning. you're looking at a guy living his dream. you know, it was to play alphabet basketball and at some point be an owner of a professional franchise and here we are today. i think the nfl has done a tremendous job of partnering with, you know, groups, organizations that dedicated to promoting diversity and inclusion in sports, and i just happened to be -- that. >> had you been trying to get in there? had they been looking at you? how did this happen?

>> so i'm a very quiet person naturally, so when i'm in rooms, i listen instead of doing a lot of talking, and, you know, i established some great relationships over my 15-year career, and we put some things together. so the bills wasn't the first choice. there was some other teams, about a year ago, we were pursuing but got to the table too late in the process. when we got wind that the bills were interested in having a group come in, the synergies matched with myself and vince and serrano and having the impact and the border is right there to buffalo and those guys are trying to permeate their fan base throughout canada. >> and was your hope always to own a piece of the nfl? or do you want to own the nba, a piece of it?

>> it was whether it was the major league baseball, whether it was -- the three r sports, major league baseball, nba, or the nfl. you know, it was just a professional franchise that i wanted to have ownership in, and this was told to my representation, you know, my rookie year. this was always, always the goal of mine, and, you know, i was able to achieve that. >> tell us -- go ahead. >> why? like why not the nba? why this broader interest? do you think you have special insights into how these major leagues operate? that's why you've always wanted to be a part of it? >> no. it's just my whole life is surrounded in sports, built around sports, so whether it was major league baseball -- actually played minor league baseball when i retired from the nba. so it really didn't matter what league i was going to, you know, have the ownership in. it was just what really fit my brand and what really made

sense, and i think, you know, the buffalo bills and what they're trying to accomplish in canada, really aligned with, you know, things that i wanted to be a part of along with vince carter. >> right. >> tracy, i want to ask you about ones basketball league, a one-on-one league, and this is season two now. sort of where this all goes, what kind of players you think you can attract? i'm curious whether you think a one-on-one player is different or the skills that are required to be an awesome one-on-one player are different than somebody in a different context, maybe even in the nba? >> one-on-one players, if you look at the nba now, you're one-on-one players or who would be really good one-on-one players are kyrie irving and, you know, james harden and kevin durant, those guys who are highly skilled, devon booker as well. my one-on-one league is not for pro guys. i want the guys that are, you

know, on the verge of making it to the nba, but not quite getting that shot, right. so guys that have a deep skill and a deep passion for the game of basketball, those guys, those semi pro guys, they have skill but can't make it to the highest level of basketball. one-on-one basketball is the pure essence of the sport. you have mma fighting, boxing 101, basketball three-on-three, why not one-on-one basketball around the world. this is the most global sport outside of soccer i recognize should be, you know, on that level, on a global scale, recognized for that top one-on-one basketball player is, and i'm on the verbal of searching to find that person. >> we hear you may be going back in the broadcasting booth. speculation around maybe nbc,

amazon, others. i don't know what you can say, can't say? >> we're in talks with nbc and amazon. i took a break from broadcasting. i was on an amazing show on "the jump" hosted by rachel nickels and looking to get back into broadcasting. there's ongoing talks. >> thank you for joining us this morning. congratulations. coming up, you know what that means, we'll speak with former vice chair ror geferguson on what he expects from the central bank. "squawk box" will be right back.

all right. welcome back, everybody. the fed holding its final policy meeting of the year this week. economists widely expecting another 25 basis points rate kick. our next guest would question that move and joining us right now is roger ferguson, he's former fed vice chairman and a cnbc contributor. explain, that's pretty intriguing opening, roger. why would you question that? >> look, i think it's likely they will move to 25 basis points. i think the issue is the incoming data has shown and everyone has observed it, the move to the 2% inflation target seems to have been stalled.

when some look at the numbers now the most recent forecast of gdp it appears to be the economy growing above trend and we see loosening financial conditions. so while i think they've signaled 25 basis point move, therefore likely to go through with it, there are going to be strong arguments on the other side and it will be interesting to hear what jay powell has to say about the counter arguments when he gets to the press conference. >> roger, we had robert kaplan, the former dallas fed president on air with us on friday, and he said if he were still in the seat at the -- as the dallas fed chairman, he would very likely say the same thing you were saying, is that he wouldn't cut at this point. he would be very open to the argument and debate but he thinks it's going to be a much more lively debate than maybe the market does at this point. >> i think it's going to be a lively debate. i think they have signaled clearly what they want to do. the argument those who want to cut are going to make are a couple things, the most recent data showed some improvement in

one of the areas that had been pretty sticky around inflation which was rent, and they're also going to say they still think we are in restrictive territory, so i think bob kaplan's right, there will be strong arguments on both sides. at the end of the day, i think that the market signal and the market expectation will weigh heavily on the decision making. >> why do they do that? i mean if they've already -- chairman powell himself has very clearly made the point that, look, we don't think we're going to be cutting for a lot longer. we want to be able to sit and take a look around and see what's there, what's the argument for cutting now versus waiting until january and give yourself a little more time to sit and think? why do we have to do this in such quick increments and spoonfeed the market what we're doing in advance and stick to that plan whether we really think it's a good idea or not? >> well, first i think we do think it's a good idea. we should be clear, the reason it's going to be an interesting conversation is, you know, many,

many people in the committee will think it's a good idea. secondly, i think they want to position themselves well to move either way if need be. you know, there's been, you know, some sense that inflation is sticky, but as i said there's some early signs that maybe inflation is continuing to move down and so i think it's important for them to exit the year positioned in a sort of nimble fashion. and 25 basis points at this stage i think is -- has strong arguments in favor of it. i think that's why they're going to do it. it's perfectly reasonable, at some point you always have the last move, right, and then you wait and see. so this might be the last move and they'll ait and see. >> robert -- >> and decide once the incoming data gives them a sense of where to go in 2025. >> robert kaplan said the best argument for not doing it, if there are significant changes, inflation is stickier than we think, new policies put in place

by this new administration turn out to be more inflationary, it's going to be embarrassing to have to reverse course. it's the credibility issue of the fed. >> i don't buy that argument. i think the fed will be very credible. their argument for why they moved was they were seeing labor markets loosening more than they thought was necessary. they had a high degree of confidence that inflation -- >> i'm sorry, roger, i should be clear, he just said the most likely reason is the best argument to not cut the additional 25 basis points is because if you have to do an about-face that would be the stickier. he's not talking about what they have done to this point. >> i don't agree with him on that in the following sense. they shouldn't refuse to move now with anticipation of policies that have not been put in place. i think that would not be a good idea. the theory is we're going to guess what the incoming

administration is going to do and we're going to move before they put anything into place to try to in some sense deal with the inflationary pressures. i think, you know, it is probably wiser for them and powell said this, the fed is not in a position where they are speculating on policy. they're in a position where they respond to policy if it looks like it's going to, you know, adjust or, you know, weaken the inflation mandate. i don't agre, they should wait now to see what happens so they can avoid, you know, embarrassment. i don't think that's a way to think about it. >> nobody has disagreed with the fed more than you, roger, but you always are so nice about it and find ways of saying, well -- and we like say other people that say what you're saying, yes, but there's -- isn't he? >> he's nuanced and been right. roger has been really right. >> if -- i would say at least 60% of the time, you sort of think that they're on the wrong track, but you never really say it out loud, am i right?

that's what he does. >> i have credibility all around. >> you're a consensus voter. maybe you should be doing things -- i don't know. >> thanks, roger. when we come back, drones -- this is a different one, drones in the sky above new jersey. we're going to get the latest on that story and speak with garden state congressional congresswoman mikie sherrill. you're watching "squawk." this is cnbc. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments.

shaping tomorrow today.

welcome back, everybody. drone sightings in new jersey and neighboring states prompting concern among residents and lawmakers. speaking with abc's "this week,"

alejandro mayorkas says these are not drones, but manned aircraft that can be mistaken for drones. that doesn't answer all the questions. joining us is a candidate for governor at this point. she's reached out to the secretary of defense asking for more communication with the public and this morning is out with a drone plan of action, and congresswoman, thank you for being here today. >> thanks so much for having me. >> let's run through this. what do you think is really happening here? >> i think we have drone sightings over new jersey. we've certainly had some airports shut down in new york. we even saw an air force base shut down because of drones. quite frankly why we're here and why i'm so frustrated is that talking point of they're just commercial aircraft, don't worry your pretty little head, that doesn't work in new jersey as i don't think would anticipate it would, and so that's why, you know, after a month of really anticipating a much better response from the government, i've put out this morning, look.

we have to stop this. we need somebody in charge, and i would suggest norad who's largely responsible for the air space over the united states and canada. have them de-conflict. have them be in charge of the unified response here, better communications. get some military reaper drones in there to track these unidentified drones as well as ground-based radars which are different from what we use for commercial aviation. >> i mean, the answers that we've gotten to this point have been kind of ridiculous. several government elected officials have said things like, well, we don't know what they are, but we know they're safe. it's one or the other. either you know what they are, or you know that they're safe. >> this is what boggles the mind, right? don't worry. they're not a threat. we don't know what they are. both can't be true, right? >> right. >> this is why we need to get some answers and we need better coordination and we need a better response. we're using these, like, clinton-era policies for this modern problem, and it's not

working. >> congresswoman, the right path, that's not part of this rash of these large suv-sized drones. they had a problem with other conventional drones so they shut town -- because i don't think ohio's part -- >> ohio hasn't been -- but the fact here -- >> but they're all -- >> the fact that we don't have a better response even for some of our -- >> even for that type of thing. >> -- really sensitive military sites, we need a better policy here going forward. >> can i tell you the conspiracy theory? and i know you've heard it. >> there's a lot of them. >> a foreign vessel or submarine or something else got through the normal, i don't know -- we didn't notice, therefore it offloaded something somewhere that is so dangerous that -- to prevent a panic from the general population they're looking for it as quickly as they can.

the cia, whoever controls -- and i guess there are some facilities around new jersey that do that sort of thing, and it conjures up the notion of a derby bomb or something they would not want to tell the general public. it almost sounds like, you know, orson wells or something it is frightening, and as long as they don't give us more, people will proliferate on social media. >> right. >> is that ridiculous? >> we're tracking down everything that we know now. certainly congressman jeff andrew put out he thought it was an iranian ship launching drones. they are not off the coast of the u.s. we have tracked those. so the d.o.d. has put out information on that so people understand that that is not the case, but again, i don't think you can -- you know, i have no information that any of that is

true. i've demanded answers, but again, you can't sit here and say we don't know what these are. we don't know where they're coming from, with you you don't have -- but you don't have to worry. >> are you not getting any other information? >> you're on the house armed services committee. do you not know more? >> is there anything that you know that you feel uncomfortable telling us about? >> i wish i could say yes right now because that is not the case. right now the briefings that i have had are largely that -- >> and so you just walk away completely unsatisfied every time you leave the briefing the same way we are -- lovely to see you b you you, but the whole thing is unsatisfying. >> that's why i put out these plans, and the next steps are get the radars on the ground. get the predators in the air, and come up with a plan here, and i've not been hearing that, and so that's why at this point, i'm saying get norad on this. >> here's a bigger question.

the faa a year ago decided to say it's okay for people to have their drones up at night or commercial uses of drones at night. is that appropriate, and is a broader commercial strategy for drones appropriate at all? should amazon be delivering packages via drones oar does that create more of a headache and a nightmare and a security issue that's been worth? >> so i was really like so many americans, quite upset with the response to the chinese balloons if you recall, right? >> right. >> which is why i put forth the blips act. what that requires is that everything over air space emits, right? it emits a signal so we know exactly what is in our air space. that is what we need here. are we going to be moving toward amazon delivering packages? i think that could be very likely, but should we not know what's a drone, what's a cessna, what's a helhelicopter? >> should they know? they shot one down and it was a

commercial drone. >> we need a plan overhead of how to make sure that if there is a drone, that we -- we don't know what it is. we don't know where it's from, that we can disable it from a way that's going to be safe. >> by the way, the is the authorities, not me we as citizens. >> that's why i put this out. this is government's responsibility. i mean, your general member of the population doesn't have access to a predator drone to go track the drone overhead back to its origin, and then send local law enforcement, which is what new jersey -- >> could this be the chinese with, like, the spy balloon, but even more looking at these sensitive facilities? could it still be? >> i think the answer is right now, we don't know that, however, it does not appear that that's what this is right now. however, and this is why we need a better policy going forward, could it be in the future? >> in the future.

>> you know, and that's what i'm so frustrated with. you can't say, it's fine, don't anybody worry about it. let's move on. you have to come up with a future policy which is why i think norad has to take over here. they have to de-conflict, and they have to have the equipment on the ground and in the air to identify this, and then we have to have policies going forward on what's -- what's appropriate, who's emitting, how wean c tell what is what in the air space overhead. >> congresswoman mikie sherrill, thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> "squawk box" will be right back. y'all see this, patrick mahomes is saying goodbye! patrick! patrick! people was tripping. where are you going!? he was actually saying goodbye to his old phone. i'm switching to the amazing new iphone 16 pro at t-mobile! it's the first iphone built for apple intelligence. that's like peanut butter on jelly...on gold. get four iphone 16 pro on us,

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a little more than a week of shopping time left for christmas. we'll look at how retailers are performing. let's welcome ceo of the tulsi adviser group. she packs a lot of words into -- doesn't use any extra words, and we don't have a lot of time because we're worried about drones as you just heard. what are the highlights for what you know right now about the selling season? >> highlights right now is that we're building into the 25th. we only have, like, eight days left. this weekend was okay, but the real buildup is next week. you just have a couple of days for online sales and most of the retail is even the data points

we got last week. retail is is being selected -- consumers are being very selective in what they're buying. you're not seeing the level of promotions increase. you're still getting good online sales with good in-store sales and overall, we've 3% to 3.5% holiday season sales for the season, seems reasonable. it's on track. costco was better. rh was better. this week we're going to get nike and birkenstock. we're going to get promotional. >> numbers were out of the world. what happened? >> demand accelerated and they lowered some of their entry price points. they had some new catalogs out with new merchmerchandise, and drove demand. look at home goods. you're seeing improvement there also. the fact that you're getting competitive price points, i think is helping rh, and i think even more as we go through this year. that was encourage because december even picked up from

november. >> should the fed be cutting rates with what you've seen in terms of this season? >> i mean, look what you have. the consumer is still being selective, and we need to be able so to to see if the consum picks up. it takes a while for rate cuts to drive demand. you're not going to see that for another six months or so. let's see by the 18th if we'll see a 25-basis point cut. >> tell me again. how many days do we have left for online to have it here in time? asking for a friend. >> for a lot of retailers, it's only today or tomorrow, and then you have to have your orders in. so by the end of the day, today or tomorrow, that's it, and then your orders better be in or you're going to the store on tuesday of christmas eve. >> the two biggest winners this year if you had to pick two? >> i think birkenstock is going to be a real winner this year, and i think you're going to see the off pricers like tjx be a winner for '24. >> okay, dana.

you seen any drones? >> i haven't seen any drones. i'm looking for them. they haven't been in my neck of the woods. >> they haven't. okay. all right. dana, thank you. let's get a final check on the market fed week. we're green. it wasn't a great week last week when it was all said and done. ten-year's moved a little higher. >> it is higher. >> inflation, and bitcoin was at 106 at one point. make sure you join us tomorrow. we'll be up here again. it's okay. it's cold. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. fed decision earnings from nike and fedex, retail sales and pce. dow is down seven straight. that's the longest losing streak in about four years.