is a monthly fee. if you are always going after high end sneaker releases or luxury goods in short supply -- the legality, usually it's legal though it may violate terms and conditions. i'm not saying you should do it, i'm saying it's possible. >> court knee reagan, thank you very much. that's it for overtime. "fast money" starts right now. live in the nasdaq market site from the heart of new york's times square this is "fast money." here is what's on tap tonights. two of the hottest trades since election day have been highly died to the crypto space. can the rally keep rolling. softbank's big investment, the ceo meeting with president-elect trump and pledging $100 million in u.s. projects. what it could mean for the economy and ai investments. plus a recently not to magnificent stock in the mag seven, looking to offload some of its luxury portfolio.

and starbucks shares are getting decaffeinated. i'm melissa lee coming to you live. on the desk tonight tim seymour, lori calvarre. the dow notching the eighth straight down day for the longest losing streak since 2018. the nasdaq at all time highs close at a record of 20,173. two big momentum trade soaring again today, bitcoin touching a fresh all time high touching $107,000 for the first time. crypto proxy microstrategy up more than 7% after news late friday that the stock will be added to the nasdaq 100 next week. the gains fading in afternoon trade but shares still up nearly 550% this year. microstrategy outperforming bitcoin by almost 30% just since donald trump was elected

president. so what is the outperformance signaling to you? it could have a broughton market signal orbit coin specific. >> feels like allocation. broader market if you look at the nasdaq it's been outperforming not a little but a lot, 5% since thanksgiving, the equal weighted has underperformed by almost 5% since thanksgiving. the s&p is up 7.5% since the fed. we have a fed meeting this week, we have a bunch of other central banks this week and i think the message is you've got central banks that are continuing to do their part, you have seasonals which we spend a to be of time on, but i think the dynamic around cpi and look at that services flash pmi on u.s. services, the highest in three years for he biggest part of the u.s. economy. it could be a noisy lumpy data piece, but ultimately the macro data has been supportive to a market where you have you've given equities every other

ingredient, labor markets are holding up, i think we rally into year-end. it's notable that the part that leads markets higher are the ones that are moving the market higher not the breadth but the same ten stocks that are doing it. >> lori. >> it's been fascinating to see. everyone has been on the broadening bandwagon, all of a sudden we're seeing growth come roaring back. bitcoin is tied up in the trump trade. there are a lot of new things that are happening that it makes fundamental sense. i would add to what tim said. i do think the economic fundamentals are solid but there are concerns about inflation creeping back in. are we getting to the end of this fed cutting cycle? what i'm starting to hear from investors is stagflation again. when you are in a stagflationary environment the flan has been to go back to the mega cap growth names. it's a good macro but not quite good enough to support that broadening. >> broadening thing, right. let's look at the equal weight

s&p 500 it had this nice rally off the election, it's given back almost a half of that over the last week or so. to lori's point you've seen this massive move into the growth thing. i think about the fed, we have it on wednesday, we have a meeting in january, it's a week after inauguration. maybe we continue to rally into that. we do have q4 earnings coming in around that period. i think that's going to be a really dicey time because if we do have a hawkish cut this week and we start to kind of price out a whole heck of a lot of cuts next year i think the fed funds future the cme is pricing in like a less than 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in january. if we have this situation where rates stay bid, we just saw -- rates not going lower, yields stay bid after the rally we have had and if we think that growth is going to start to slow, that's not going to be a great setup for equities and just the last point about bitcoin and what we saw today with broadcom up another 11% after it rallied 24% on friday, it's gained $30

billion in market cap in two trading days. tesla went from 250 the day of the election to 450 now. there seems to be a bit of euphoria. it feels a lot like early 2000. i'm not trying to say that we are about on the precipice of a crash, but -- or late 2021 when we saw a lot of price action like this, too. so the sentiment is unusually bullish right now and it's getting more and more crowded, especially as we see some of the broader trades kind of coming to an end a little bit in the near term. >> so i disagree with a lot of what dan said, not all of it. i think we will see growth. i think we will see the economy doing better. i'm not afraid right now of growth slowing. i actually think it will accelerate and i do believe that animal spirits have been, you know, released and that makes people willing to take more risk, willing to do things to grow, and i think we will see that regulatory regime change and i think those things all

help businesses feel confident and grow. what i am sort of -- like you i do think that -- i'm surprised that inflation isn't reflected as the potential to be much higher. i think it will be. the ten year bonds were flat today and i think we saw some decent pmi, that was global. so i think that will weigh on the economy, but not as much as the positive of the sort of growth in the economy -- >> i don't think that growth is going to come in that much worse. talking about earnings growth and economic growth. we saw how gdp growth was trending this back half of the year, better than expected. my point is that if yields continue to go higher, we get 4.5% or higher in the ten year the dollar continues to rally, i think that is a headwind for earnings growth. i don't know how much of a headwind it is for economic growth but when i think about earnings growth and consensus, we are looking at 12%, 13% expected growth. that has not come in or gone

higher too much in the last year or so. there is a lot of things that have to happen to justify the multiple expansion we've seen over the course of this year. >> i would just say three quick things. if you are thinking about the economic environment the number for next year is trending around 2.1 the average back to the '70s is 2.6. 2.1 is great growth but not great enough to get people out of this old secular growth leadership. that's what i'm starting to hear about a lot. to dan's point on the dollar, we do tend to see downward revision pressure when the dollars strengthen for most sectors, rates, utilities and financials. i do think that's a potential hiccup. you mentioned 2021, 2000, the analogy that's been coming up in my meetings is 2018. if you look at sort of the beginning of that second year of trump's first term, we had gone through this enormous euphoria in 2017, excitement over the tax cuts. we saw the cftc data break out to a new high and that is

exactly what we're doing this time around. so, you know, i think that we've got a lot of fantastic momentum in the economy, fundamentals, we need the gdp numbers to get higher. going back to the original topic of conversation, bitcoin, bitcoin, trump, the s&p they are all moving together. we can get clues from one for the other. >> i think this is a good time to take advantage of all of this momentum to the upside. it's a great time to be selling upside calls, especially in mag seven stocks. if you don't think we will get some correction into march and april as some of the policy begins to have teeth to it, there is no way. the fact that the triple qs are up 13.5% since the fed meeting, nasdaq up 13.5% since the fed meeting when there was no major surprise there. the talk about inflation is important because if anything that is the outlier for 2025. if you get a fed that's -- if it's a hawkish cut but more importantly if the table truly -- forget the rhetoric this week on wednesday, but if you get a table set for a fed to

begin to start to position to very neutral but not necessarily an easy bias stocks haven't priced this in. take the advantage of what you have in terms of momentum right now. selling three to six month google calls, it's not a free lunch and auk always play ways where you can roll up and out on those, but i think the mega cap tech giants leading the market higher are a place to caption where there has been fund flow and that's what this is. >> i don't know how you feel on options but i think the three of us might agree on that. i do think the skew in the mag seven names are so much higher to the upside that you can put on attractive callers and protect your down side and i agree. i agree. there is a lot of momentum and hype there. i mean, we saw google hit 200 today. >> what a move today. >> today. >> don't even count last week. >> 35% in google since september 6 when the uk said they were taking them down. >> there's quantum and then some

of the reviews of some of the gen ai products they're launching. >> waymo. >> this has been a massive underperformer for all the reasons that we haven't seen the revision. if you are expecting massive m&a from mega cap tech, let's talk about broadcom. they tried to buy nxpi, then when that got knocked off i think you can say, okay, we're going to have a better regulatory environment for m&a. well, asian countries, european countries can block these deals. broadcom tried to buy qualcomm. the trump administration, the ftc or doj they blocked that deal. >> i agree with you on big tech. i think a handbag deal might go through hypothetically. >> you might be buying in bulk. >> the ftc is -- but if you -- i mean, to your point, though, in terms of google being an underperformer, are we seeing this realignment of assets where you're going from what had been the performers like let's say a

microsoft which hasn't been performing very well, the last high was fwh august, sometime over the summer into a google now. at the end of the year even within the mag seven you are seeing the recognition there are the underperformers within mega cap tech that we want to be in. >> i think that's fair. mega cap tech broadly they keep putting up the earnings and they're taking turns. there's one that shines more brightly than the other at any point in time but the value trade is not working because it is not putting up the earnings growth. the relative valuations are staying elevated for the big tack companies because they deserve it from the earnings perspective and it's not changing. >> the part of this market that's not performing that does dance into mag seven certainly nvidia does, but semis are underperforming. this is what's fascinating. semis led the market from october of '22 that cpi load to where we got through and through the early part of this year. march is when semis tapped out. interesting you're seeing relative value trades or maybe just relative both sentiment and catalyst trades.

taiwan semi outperforming nvidia over the last three months and that's something that i think will probably continue. >> i think the nvidia thing is really important. you might have said six months ago that if nvidia starts selling off, all semis are going to start selling off, maybe that leads hyper scalers lower. it's gone into marvel, into broadcom over the last two weeks. with broadcom getting over a trillion dollars in market cap the mag seven is over, it's the fateful eight now. i think the risks keep going higher and higher -- >> so who is -- >> he just unveiled a new thing. >> mag seven plus the broadcom, these are the trillion dollar babies and i think they become increasingly sort of crowded and just microsoft could be a really interesting story. >> fateful -- >> you can't do that and run away from it. >> what do you mean by fateful? >> jim cramer, give me a ring. i know you coined the faang. i did the maga. >> everybody else remembers t too.

>> trump picked it up. >> not really. but in terms of fateful you mean they determine the direction of the markets? >> listen -- >> i mean, what's so fateful about them? >> they determine the future of this secular technology trade towards generative ai. no doubt about it. and microsoft started to do this, their guidance and capex wasn't good enough, that's why the stock is lagging. if we get to a situation where there was overordering in these high end gpus, too much capacity built out by the hyper scalers and we start to see guidance go flat the stocks are going to correct here. >> so now the eighth member -- >> broadcom. >> create the fateful eight, broadcom is up 40% in six days. why is it up 40%? mostly an earnings number where you got some look into their ai business and the sense is that we have also three years out we have 40% to 45% of high gross margin ai business. this fresh momentum it's not that people are looking to sell

nvidia to buy broadcom i think a lot of people feel like there is more to do in this ai trade. it's fresh legs to ai. >> that was the most -- it was just bs. they say they see the tale of 60 to 90 million dollars by the end of '27 and the stock rallies $300 billion that's the dumbest thing i have ever heard in my life in the market. i mine that. you can drive a truck through that guidance. here is a company that's going to do $60 billion in sales and maybe $15 billion right now are generative ai and we are not even talking about the gpus that nvidia is making. a lot of things have to go right for them to take meaningful share in that maybe $90 billion number in three years. the price performance and the multiple has pulled that forward. >> investors have made that leap, taken that leap of faith. >> where the hell were they two weeks ago. >> and where has nvidia gone directionally? i'm not defending it i'm just saying what the market psychology might be. >> do you know what i'm going to say -- >> that's the dumbest thing.

have at it. all right. let's move on. michael sailor joined cnbc earlier today saying his company will keep buying bitcoin even at these levels. >> i've said we will keep buying the top forever. every day is a good day to buy bitcoin. we look at it as cyber manhattan every year for the past 300 years. you pay a little bit more than the person that bought manhattan before you, but it's always a good investment to invest in the economic capital of the free world. world. >> does he own real estate here? ? for more let's bring in seph bappi. you are an equity analyst. how do you value this company when actually you have to have a directional call on bitcoin to put a price target on microstrategy. >> good afternoon. i think you have to have a positive medium to long-term view in bitcoin to be positive

on microstrategy, kind of going back to michael saylor's analogy of manhattan real estate, there's not much more of it that's ever going to be created so there is a scarcity value proposition there. you know, in the case of microstrategy, they're just going to continue on this path of buying more bitcoin and, you know, importantly what you see in this strategy is microstrategy's ability to create accretion in bitcoin held per share. it doesn't necessarily show up in their financial statements, in their earnings numbers or the like, but every day if you are an owner of a share of microstrategy that share represents an increasing amount of bitcoin on a per bitcoin basis. so that's what -- i think that's what investors are really looking at and that's why they've rewarded the company so

much in the last couple years here. >> i'm just curious, joseph. is there any other example of a company in history that has used their balance sheet in order to buy other assets? i mean, basically it's almost like a shell company. it's basically exercising the tools that a corporation can use to raise money in order to buy bitcoin and make more money off of that. the yield is much higher on that. so is there any equivalent and is there any, at all, regulatory risk that somebody steps in and says, this is not -- this is not kosher? >> i mean, it is a consideration, i suppose. you have an -- i mean, this is an operating company at its heart, it's a software company, it's got an operating company set of financials. it's not an investment company. they are acquiring an asset. they're acquiring bitcoin, just like maybe an exploration company, a drilling company or an e & p company would

acquire -- >> they sell it. they produce or they drill for oil or gas to sell it and this is expressly to hold it and or to trade it. >> well, they're not trading bitcoin. >> sell it sometimes. >> i don't believe they've actually ever sold bitcoin. they just continue to accrue bitcoin as a scarce asset and that's been the strategy to date. >> so, joseph, what do you think of the asset then? i mean, at the end of the day we all know what this is a call on, and i'm not questioning your ability to make a call on bitcoin i'm just curious what your call on bitcoin is. ultimately that's really what this comes down to and i would think -- this does feel different than a minor going out there and securing physical assets in the industry that they are involved in. talk on bitcoin or who is the next bitcoin? where do you go with this trade or are you just buying bitcoin forever? >> you may be just buying

bitcoin forever. i mean, taking a word out of michael saylor's pitch book, bitcoin is the exit strategy. if you look at bitcoin over the last few years it's come a long way. it's seeing broader institutional adoption under a second trump administration, we're expecting a much kinder regulatory backdrop. we've been dealing with a very -- very menacing regulatory backdrop here over the last couple of years. you know, if we get a broad regulatory framework in place, digital assets just continue to make their way more into the mainstream. there will be more buyers of it. you can see other players do or mimic a microstrategy type of strategy or you could just see large tech companies, you know, the magnificent seven just allocating one or two percent of their balance sheet to bitcoin.

it does feel like, you know, nothing is perfect and not every asset class is for everybody, but the backdrop around the fundamentals of bitcoin have really only been improving here over the last year, year and a half. >> joseph, it's karen. if we get this regulatory environment, it's very friendly to bitcoin, do you think that the premium would stay? >> you know, it's an interesting -- i think you're talking about the premium at which microstrategy's equity trades at versus its holdings. >> right. >> right now microstrategy is the only one implementing this strategy, more or less. there are some smaller companies out there that are doing it, there's a small company called semler scientific that's mimicked this strategy and it's actually worked quite well for semler as well. you know, at this point there's not really any competition for microstrategy in this arena. if we get a broader regulatory framework, you know, there could

be more buyers of bitcoin. i think it would be a high class problem for microstrategy because it would probably be upwardly biased extra demand on the price of bitcoin, but maybe it wouldn't be as easy for them to implement this subtropical gee at the scale they are at. >> joseph, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> joseph vafi. i mean, trump has said that the rules will be written by people who love your industry. that's exactly what he said at that crypto confab in the summer. >> is this a pull forward? when you think about the use cases of bitcoin right now the only one is nerd gold. it's a store of value. might there be other use cases if there is some regulatory that puts it in the hands of some of the businesses that want to use it? you asked the question, though, this is really important, we were just talking about this, have other companies done this sort of thing? apple is a great example, they bought back $800 billion of their own stock, they retired more than a third of their shares and you would tell me

that was really accretive the way in which they were buying back their stock relative to where they were borrowing money and that is a good example of this. it never became levered, it was actually trading like a value stock as they were doing it. now it's become a growth stock when there is no growth. i'm channeling my guy adami right there. it's interesting to me that that's a great example over the last 12 years. coming up, luxury on sale, why capris could be looking to sell high-end businesses and the analysts getting bullish on macy's heading into the winter season. first, investing in america. president-elect donald trump and the ceo of softbank announcing a major investment in the u.s. just how much they are spending and how many jobs could come with it. don't go anywhere. "fast ne iba itw moy"s ckn o.

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light-hearted negotiations over that $100 billion investment in the u.s. trump tried to raise it to $200 billion but masayoshi would only commit to try to hit that figure. all of that in jest. in the press conference trump touched on a range of business topics including the possibility of a resolution on tiktok. we've learned late this afternoon that trump has met with the ceo of tiktok. trump didn't commits to any specific outcome in terms of the social media company, but he has said that he's got a warm spot in his heart for the chinese-owned company because it helped him win the election this year. he said he had a productive meeting with the pharmaceutical industry leaders that came to see him him at mar-a-lago and placed the price of high cost drugs on the middle member. he discussed the high profile ceo visitors who have come to see him at mar-a-lago including tim cook, mark zuckerberg and jeff bezos who is expected later this week.

>> the big difference is between the first term -- the first term everybody was fighting me. in this term everybody wants to be my friend. i don't know. my personality changed or something. yeah, the biggest difference is that people want to get along with me this time. >> trump was also asked about the assassination of the ceo of united health which the president-elect called a terrible thing. trump said he can hardly understand how people online could be expressing support for the alleged shooter, calling that support a sickness in the country, melissa. back over to you. >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers. another note on unitedhealthcare in the wake of the murder of that ceo, there has been a lot of talk about the denial rates for climbs. late friday night unh put out a release saying that the company approves and pays about 90% of the medical claims that are submitted. they also added neither of the alleged killer nor his parents were covered by unh insurance. health care today hit again as trump rallied against the middle

men in the sector, claiming them for keeping drug prices high. it's november overhang on this particular industry. we had bipartisan legislation to form pbn to sell off their drug business. tim, i don't know, there's a lot to trade here. the trump trade. >> there's been a ton of headlines and a lot of philosophical places -- there are places to go attack u.s. health care and our industry which is the most expensive in the world. it also is the most sophisticated in the world. there are also companies that have spent tons of time and r&d on patents and drug pipelines. look, we all recognize this system is imperfect, but it's not broken. i think there's opportunities to invest around this. i don't think you're running too far from the names that have worked yesterday. >> health care, lori. >> so i was overseas last week, actually last week and a half, and talking about sectors with a lot of non-u.s.-based investors.

i will tell you in europe it's really interesting because they have a lot of nervousness heading into next year over various things and are asking me about rates and utilities. then we get to health care and things just get quiet. it is really just so much hitting this sector. i've been doing this for over 20 years, sometimes things get out of favor and this feels different somehow. you know, you're still seeing the sector that has good earnings revision trends, a lot of things going right but this is just, i think, a unique moment and i think there is an appreciation of that with investors right now. a lot more "fast money" to come. here is what's coming up next. >> letting go of luxury why capris could be looking to selke brands and why macy's could heat up this winter season. plus stocks hovering near record highs and wall street seems to think the good times will continue in 2025, but not before a january jolt. why our next guest says a short-term correction could be coming for the markets soon. you're watching "fast money."

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welcome back to "fast money." moves in the retail space today, let's start off with capris

holdings, sharing up nearly 4% on reports the luxury retailer is looking at buyers for its versace and jimmy choo brands. they called off their merger after the ftc blocked the mega deal. tapestry up nearly 75%. karen? >> yeah, so i don't know if it's true, but it certainly could be true because the great promise of coors because we were going to consolidate these luxury brands and versace and jimmy choo were the much more luxury ones. when we do that we're going to get a multiple that is much more of a luxury multiple. not only did they not get that, they got a lower multiple than they ever did before. it's not surprising that they would want to dismantle this. the experiment hasn't worked and they have some debt. i think if they do sell them that would be a positive for the stock. macy's rising as much as 4%

after analysts at gordon has ket upgraded the stock to a buy from a hold, they also boosted the price target from 20 bucks from 16 saying the tone on current business trends was upbeat and the cold months bode well for seasonal sales. you do want to buy a scarf or two, tim, when it's colder outside. >> a guy can't have too many scarves. let's be clear. i think this is an interesting call. i think that those numbers weren't that bad, the volatility in the macy's price has been around the dynamics of what's going on with the assets, whether they are going to do a sale or not do a sale when we know there's outside interest. there's real estate value. it's interesting optionality to own for a business that's not expensive and is performing. it's been a great year for the s&p 500 and wall street estimates for 2025 are point to go more gains to come, but could there be an opportunity to get in cheaper in the weeks ahead. our next guest will lay out his take when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." the s&p rising ahead of the central bank's last meeting of 2024. the nasdaq closing at a record high but the dow falling more

than 100 points, down eight straight days. energy stocks underperforming the broader market today, the xle down 2% which including exxonmobil. shares down seven days in a row, the longest losing streak since december of 2022. ever core isi put out its 2025 s&p target saying they expect it to finish at 6800 that implies a 12% gain from today's close but there is near term warning baked into that forecast. julian emanuel joins us now. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> so the warning is beware of january because it's not going to be a straight line higher. >> i wouldn't call this irrational exuberance but we've seen there are pockets of exuberance, the conference board survey showed the highest reading ever of people that think stock prices will be

higher a year from now. and just for reference, the formally highest rating was the beginning of 2018. there's been a lot of discussion of 2018 and when you think about the policy backdrop of the incoming trump administration it's pretty easy to make the case that we're going to get a little bit of volatility to start the year. >> that is exactly what lori was talking about, 2018 being the comparison year. what's your price target, lori. >> we are at 6,600 we also have a bear case of 5,775 and it's -- it's interesting there is he a as much interest in my bear case as there is my target just because i do think there is a lot of nervousness about sentiment, a lot of nervousness about valuation but that runs counter to the strong animal spirits, economic upgrades that we're seeing. >> so i would just say, and this is a positive, that clients are very, very focused and very concerned about valuation. as all of us sit around here we have -- i dare say we have been

nervous about valuation all of us, probably for the last six months. valuation alone doesn't end the bull market, but what it does is it makes it susceptible to any sort of less than perfect news, which, you know, the amount of geopolitics that we have going on and what happens if someone said, fed chair powell, do you think there's any scenario in which you might hike interest rates next year? how that question gets answered on wednesday is going to be pretty informative. >> dan? >> yeah, so we have the fateful eight here now, broad cam just had this thing, it's trending. does it worry you a little bit that those eight stocks are about 20% of the s&p 500? i know we've been talking about concentration, but if you're talking about valuation they're also a really important component of the s&p 500 valuation. we've seen massive multiple explanation. 20 trillion, eight stocks, 40% of the s&p 500 that are making

up a lot of the expected growth in the index next year. >> it's definitely a concern and we all know there is one stock in particular that's had an incredible run up since the election, it is now trading over 200 times earnings and i dare say is that that's a consideration and a worry no matter what, but, again, it's one of these things where if you think about it, i think we were all amazed when, say, the top five stocks in weighting the s&p 500 rose beyond the y2k peak and think about how long ago and how many index points ago that was. again, it's a question of u need other things and, a, it's -- in our mind it's going to be potentially irrational exuberance, we think the capital markets will show the way towards that if we get there or a recession, which we just don't see in 2025. >> so u.s. exceptionalism has been the story for years now. dollar at some point is a problem.

rates at some point could be a problem but haven't really been so far. what do you think about the rest of the world? we know their politics in europe are kind of scary right now, but there's been a lot of underperformance. >> well, we are getting a ton of questions about the rest of the world, it started about -- really right at the election because the assumption is in an america first president you would see more of this kind of reform which you have seen. from our point of view, again, here valuation relative or absolute it's very difficult to just make the case that it's going to work on the basis of that. we would want to see in europe a reasonably defined dollar top, which is something to certainly look out for. that may be driven by trump's displeasure. you remember he got uncomfortable about the strong dollar during the first administration. in china we really want to see bond yields stop declining. it looks very much like what you saw in japan in the 1990s in

terms of yields going lower than you could ever imagine and then as far as japan, what we want to see is sort of a separation between the way the nikkei trades and the way the yen trades and we think that's possible. it worked throughout the 1980s, but, again, all of these are catalysts that we're waiting for the macro backdrop to change and we do anticipate getting more positive on the rest of the world at some point. >> super quick, julian, you like small caps? do you expect small caps to outperform s&p broadly next year? >> we do. >> okay. >> we do. it's really -- if you look at the year after every election since 2012, you had this spike in small business uncertainty. it comes off and small caps have worked throughout those cycles. >> julian, great to see you. thanks tore coming on. >> thank you. we had a health of strategists on set tonight. do you like small caps, lori? >> yeah, i hate to be the party pooper on this one, i'm an old small cap strategist but i

expect more of a trading environment between the two. i think right now we're just full in terms of positioning the cftc data is actually above the highs that were hit in 2016 through 2018 when we saw three distinct trump trades in small cap that fizzled out pretty quickly. if we think about valuation we are know not quite at the ceiling but the ceiling is in sight if we look at the historical data. the fed is really what's gotten up here the dovishness and we're starting to see that get dialed down again. i appreciate the idea of the animal spirits, but i think that's only going to be able to take this space so long and you really need a stronger economic tailwind to see a small caps outperform and we're just not there yet. coming up, him's and hers rebounding ahead of a major decision from the fda on compounded glp 1 drugs, the skinny on how the options market is better next. a buzz kill for starbucks as they face a new chalng brewing up business abroad.

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welcome back to "fast money." let's take a look at the "options action" on two key events this week, first, the fda expected to rule by thursday on whether eli lilly's trazepizide

should be on the shortage list. removing it would have a big impact on other companies' ability to manufacture and sell compounded versions of the drug. for a look at how options market are better on this outcome let's bring in mike mike khouw. >> the volatility is 120% which puts it in names like microstrategy. right now the calls and puts are evenly matched i would say but most of the stuff that's just looking to the end of this week looks like tactical down side bets. some of the biggest trades we were seeing were in the options that expire at the end of this week, the 26, 22, one by two put spreads. the traders were buying down down side 26 puts and selling the 22s against it to offset the premium. that's a tactical down side trade if you think about it because they're targeting a range basically between about 18.5 and, you know, 25.5, is

what they're looking at for the end of the week, risk 1% of the current stock price, a little less than that. >> that's interesting. last week we had the ceo of ro and they had announced a deal, a partnership with eli lilly to sell the single dose vial which would be cheaper. and some are saying that that partnership signals that it is not in shortage. why would they launch this new product line that so many people would want if this drug was in shortage. >> you know that the pens were in shortage to a great deal causing a lot of the problems. you think about $400 for a vial, that is competing directly with these compounds and i don't know why you would take a compound if you get that straight from lilly. >> for the same, yeah. meantime, nike is on dig to report earnings on thursday. the sportswear giant could be due for the most positive results in nearly a year. >> the options market is implying a one day move of 7% less than the long term average move of 6% but over the last

eight quarters it's moved around quite a lot, closer to 9%. we saw calls significantly outpacing puts and it was the december 80s those are the ones that expired this friday that were most active. we saw about 4,000 of those trading for $2.34 a contract that was earlier today, more than that traded by the close. those guys are taking a risk-limited bet that this could be the first positive earnings release in more than five quarters. >> tim? >> i think it is unlikely that it is, though. i see how the options market is lining up here. i think the expectations for what are the true catalysts to change nike's business in the short term i think the next two to three quarters. i think there was a lot of euphoria priced into the ceo change. that's great stuff and i think this is one of the great global -- this is the great global athleisure brand, you don't have to buy it here. >> thank you, mike khouw. a bitter day for starbucks as the coffee chain's business

in india hits a road block. what is leaving investors stdaery toy. ill ahead. more "fast money" in two.

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coffee chain dripping almost 4.5% today. yes, go ahead and grown. as the ceo of its venture partner tata consumer products said it would open fewer stores in india due to weaker demand. it was star buck's worst day since may. dan, you actually flagged starbucks for us today. >> i wasn't thinking about india, i must have missed that headline. in china you saw the consumer data they announced their first ever growth officer in china today, maybe they're starting to see stuff that's not so great. a large part of that move was the ceo change. to me it feels a bit precarious at these levels. >> i think starbucks is one i can own here because i think that the brand which is, again, i think preeminent and ultimately this is an operational dynamic. i do think they have -- i'm concerned about pricing power. brian nichols basically going the other direction basically saying we are not dropping prices and go going to hold on to the gross margins. >> the worst thing that happened to brian nichols was the first day move. anything he could have done for

the next two or three years ask priced in and anything that doesn't happen perfectly detracts from that. i don't know if they feel like it's expensive but not crazy. >> i've been nibbling at starbucks over the last two months. a little bit. it's hardly time to say game on and i do think china and the growth markets are not why you're buying this. >> consumer discretionary stocks we're neutral on them but need more sectors that look good in this market right now. people hate my energy overweight. >> i like it, for what it's worth. >> thanks. one person out there. >> i've overweighted communication services because it does have a discretionary angle. the valuations aren't great, interest rates, we've lost that tailwind. i'm really curious and rooting for this sector in the new year. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. if only you knew what we were talking about. lora. >> i'm buying communications services, cheap good earnings, not a lot of politics. >> tim seymour. >> buy what the ceo wasn't wearing at macy's. i do think you have a dynamic, a stock price has the ability to move higher with some optionality. >> karen finerman. >> i am optimistic for the holiday season here, a retail name that i like is gap stores, they come into the quarter with a pretty good inventory situation. >> do you think banana does better. >> they've been improving.

>> dan? >> cramer had faang. >> what is it called? >> just say it, mel. fateful eight. >> grateful dead? >> fateful eight. >> i also like lori's energy call in the new year. >> i actually my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to cra-merica. i'm trying to make a little money. my job, teach, educate, call me, tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes the action of stocks seems so obvious that you only notice it after it