tv Mad Money CNBC December 16, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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>> cramer had faang. >> what is it called? >> just say it, mel. fateful eight. >> grateful dead? >> fateful eight. >> i also like lori's energy call in the new year. >> i actually my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to cra-merica. i'm trying to make a little money. my job, teach, educate, call me, tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes the action of stocks seems so obvious that you only notice it after it happens.
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on a day when we're anticipating what the fed will do wednesday with the dow dipping 111 points, s&p advancing, nasdaq gaining 1.24%, for a record high, by the way, i think it's worth reflecting on why we didn't grab hold of opportunities, ones that seemed so obvious, so we don't miss similar ones in the future. the first mistake we made -- and i am speaking collectively -- was in believing that the fundamentals always matter. i know from experience that this is just not always true. for example, there are these cult stocks. these are stocks where what's happening at the company and what's happening in the stock are two very different animals. unlike meme stocks, cold stocks have a loyal shareholder base they can trade independent of the business for years and years. the most obvious example, tesla. this rally since the election is one for the ages. it's a move that in retrospect everyone should have seen coming. elon musk has been in with the winner of the presidential election, electric cars doing
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much better than everyone's. full self-driving could be around the corner. let's look at what might have kept you out of the stock. if you go back to when we found out that elon was a big-time trump supporter, the media was filled with how long will that last chatter. the president-elect is famously mercurial while elon musk is capricious. the idea they could bond before they clash seemed inevitable. plus, electric vehicle sales were sinking everywhere. we saw adoption slow for all evs including tesla in the united states. the competition in china, it became cutthroat. tesla is a high cost producer. the estimates, they kept going lower. [ sound effects ] plus, there's a lawsuit about him getting his bonus where it wasn't clear he would stick around as ceo if he lost. too easy to pick some other part of his empire. the realty was different.
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but it was missed by the numbers guys on wall street. first the public is back from the stock market, bigger thaon' research. others think it's worthless. musk was close to trump, spent hundreds of millions to help him win, so as long as trump won tesla was going to be a huge winner. you had to believe. it was like a sports team. as it is, it turns out tesla has more driving self-data than google-backed competor waymo, cheat trump will buy into, and crown tesla the full self-driving winner versus the approach of waymo. maybe it gives them the whole update highway system. and the gm dropped out of the self-driving taxi business making major's view real -- musk's view reality. tesla's up 86% for the year with nearly all of that coming after the election when we realized only is musk tight with president-elect donald trump, he's helping form the government that trump's liking, doing
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this -- or he plans to. once you get a ceo that political influence it's easy for the faithful to imagine the unlimited possibilities come means that the constraint by the price to earnings multiple. they'll pay anything for tesla. much higher than these prices. they're insensitive to price. did i mention that mizuo upgraded the stock from hold to buy off an improving outlook under the trump administration after the market close? next up, netflix. what the heck were we thinking when we didn't own netflix? is there a week that goes by where we don't talk about a netflix show? the linear tv networks like to do expensive shows about fires and hospitals and police. fire country, hospital, p.d. it's been the formula since the 1970s. they keep doing same thing. failing each year. netflix, they come up with things like jake paul versus mike tyson. and it did huge viral and numbers. i tried -- what the hell was
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that where it didn't work? at least where i was trying. didn't matter. millions watched it. we're ten days from the start of "squid game 2." take that, "fire country." we watch all -- hell, fire -- we had all sort of programs from other countries because we've been taught by netflix to like subtitles. it's insane how good this company is. honestly, convincing americans to read subtitles may be the most important cultural event of the 21st century. ♪ [ applause ] >> yet wall street doubted netflix the whole way when it came to the ad-supported subscriptions tier. they didn't get it perfect out of the box. many who followed the company presumed it was a bust. it was hardly a bust. it's going to get bigger and bigger. it's easy to say that i wasn't -- anyone could have had it, but those who spend their lives examining this company thought otherwise. they said stay away. and they're the professionals. who are we to doubt the professionals? they doubted the ad tier.
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who were we to doubt them? then there's the multiple and the darn price journeys multiple. netflix was always selling for 50 times earnings which is just too high for the people who care about valuation. those people aren't the general public. they aren't the home givers. and those who love netflix won, cold stock, cold stock that's up 89% for the year. >> that was easy. >> then there's palantir. this enterprise slashed it -- it has a tremendous business model and could change the department budget. but they're playing by their own rules. like amc, the theater chain. the ceo caters not to wall street but to main street. and to investors. the difference is when it comes to enterprise software you don't use price journeys models. you use the rule of 40 where you add the revenue growth rate to the ebitda margin. if it's above 40 you got a winner. most people losing money can't reach the number. some can if they have incredible revenue growth. palantir was losing money hand over fist, but it passed the
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rule of 40 test with flying colors. since then the growth's been action assembly rating rapidly. among the fastest growers in the industry. top of the rule 40. like tesla, palantir tie with trump. -- tight with trump. why didn't we see it? the ceo was too brash and the business too opaque? by nature they're secretive. there are renegades and investors who saw it. they made money and got out of amc near the high, the kind that made $100, $200 with gamestop. these people bought palantir on the ceo's say-so. to them it was worth more than anything else, even as it was worth nothing to wall street analysts who covered it. palantir's made a breakout. it is up 340% for the year. seems obvious from retrospect. but it was anything but at the time. a stock that's been gunned by retail, that now because it's about to have a real breakout is being blocked by institutions? oh and the individuals still like it, they start their buying at 4:00 a.m. and walk it up
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until the opening. it's -- get up early and see it happen on the crawl. don't -- look, you don't have -- they do the same thing at 4:00 p.m. after the closing bell. take it up 30 cents, 50 cents, usually about a buck. the bottom line, there's a lesson and a brutal one. sometimes conventional method of valuation are completely worthless. and you need to embrace the dynamics of cold stocks. >> house of pleasure. >> the trick is to recognize when we're in one of those moments. in 2025 let's do this -- let's strive to find the stocks of companies that do defy orthodoxy. some will prove to be wrong. if 2024 is any guide the ones that are right will more than make up for any of those losses. i'm going to start the question with tommy in texas. tommi? >> yes, jim. >> tommy. >> yes, my question concerns the refineries specifically marathon petroleum. where do we go from here? buy, sell, or hold? what do you think?
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>> i think that our view -- our view is that president trump is very -- president-elect donald trump very much wants oil to come down in price in order to offset any inflation from tariffs. and i think he's going to make good for that. that's getting people out of the stocks. and i'm not going to go against that orthodoxy. let's go to ian in virginia. ian? >> caller: jim, how it's going? would love to hear about tko. seems like they have pretty big opportunities with 2025 sports rights renewals and continuing synergies. and the opportunities with international expansion and sponsorship revenue. love the show. merry christmas, jim. >> thank you, same to you. and i think you're right. this company is heavily motivated to go higher. they insist -- a wonder to behold. i'm not getting in front of it. if you want to own it, be my guest. all right. as weep reach the end of the year, it's worth thinking about the reason why certain stocks shot up in 2024. in 2025 i'll be looking for stocks that defy orthodoxy.
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i'm investigating of signs of weakness that could shake up the bull run's foundation. i'm checking up on a sector that is rife with opportunity. i'm kicking off a series where i'll reveal top names to keep an eye on. later, with the shares of marvell up over 100% this year i've got coates to break down -- the ceo to break town what's behind the move and whether their more behind it. stay with cramer. have a question, tweet cramer, #madmentions. send jim an email to mad madmoneycnbc.com. miss something, head to --
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if you're 2.5 glorious years are the homebuilders -- coming to an end? two weeks ago the s&p homebuilders etf, the xhb, peaked after 146% multiyear run. pulled back 10% because we're seeing newfound concerns that the industry's running out of gas. let's show the most obvious reason that they're taking a breather. interest rates. everyone was excited about getting lower mortgage rates once the fed started easing. when they kicked things off with the double rate cut in september, that's not what happened. instead long range, set by the bond market, began to soar because the bond buyers don't believe the fed's beaten inflation. they're holding back. we've got a second rate cut in november and will probably get another one wednesday. the bond market isn't playing ball. the owner of the 30-year treasury bond and the 3.9%
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before the fed started cutting rates then went to 4.7%. after pulling back the 30-year yield is back to 4.6%. mortgage rates are hostage to the bond market. as long as bonds don't take their cue from the fed rate cuts don't mean much for housing. oh, that's for home buyers who might have been waiting for the fed to cut to get a mortgage. and this long awaited catalyst hasn't panned out. homes were intractable when it comes to price and a big reason inflation's too high. the election result didn't help either. there's a concern that some of president-elect donald trump's proposals will put upward pressure on inflation, blocking the fed from cutting rates more aggressively. if trump cracks down on immigration, the homebuilders will have fewer customers and will have to pay a heck of a lot more for labor. more important, last week we heard from toll brothers, the top builder of luxury homes. wall street didn't love what they had to say. i considered toll one of the best homebuilders, so this is important to me.
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the actual quarterly results were fine, even good, the forward looking metrics were less good. some goes -- same goes for the guidance. first the company's backlog is slipping, but it's down 7% year after year. you never like to see the backlog heading down. then there was toll's guidance. their four-year forecast for deliveries was good same for the home, the quarter fell short on both these lines. basically the guidance seemed to be implying that even though 2025 would have been a -- would have a slow start from toll brothers, they could make it up, you know, maybe in the rest of the year. in short they're asking to take a leap of faith, and wall street doesn't like to take a leap of faith. a fantastic ceo told an interesting story which was interpreted different ways like a mash -- he said that as rates rose throughout the quarter the market softened in september and october. toll brothers began to ramp up incentives. their strategy is to focus on equity and turning over
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inventory. they would like make concessions to get a sale done rather than stick stubbornly to a higher price and not sell things. this had an imaccount pa on the guidance -- an impact on the guidance. not good when you have to discount your merchandise in any business including homebuilding. they said the housing market got better in november. he thinks it's because the end of the election cleared a mental headwind for demand. stock pressure is high. tol starting to see that a wealth transfer from parents to millennial home buyers is happening. as parents are helping out with down payment. and as the market got better the company ban to pull back on some of the incentives that it leaned into in september, october. that's why tol's guidance for the full year looks better than the guidance for the current quarter. it mystified people. i think it told a reasonable story about a company doing what it needs to navigate a tricky environment. overall the numbers are going in the wrong direction. tol coming off two years where average selling price were $1
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million per home. now lower than that for the current quarter. the saving grace is they got it for higher deliveries this year. but that was kind of a -- expected. remember, we were waiting for these rate cuts to unshackle the housing market. the bottom line is that tol seems -- to be working harder than investors thought is it would have to to maintain high volume despite a not-so-hot environment. in response the stock fell nearly 7%. then it kept falling further on wednesday, thursday, then friday. by the close on friday, tol was down, wow, roughly 15% from where it closed on monday right before the quarter. to be honest, i had -- i was surprised by the extremely negative reaction. i wasn't surprised it sold off. but it was more violent than expected. the most negative thing for the homebuilders was the 2025 outlook note from jpmorgan which included bearish comments about the industry along with estimate and price target cuts across the board. i actually -- i thought the piece was extreme.
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the analysts explained they thought the industry's favorable dynamics going away in a more normalized environment, you're going to see more price concessions and incentives which will hurt. it doesn't help that we're starting to see more existing homes coming back to the market. that's good for buyers but not for homebuilders. there are some things that i could quibble here. but i like -- the idea that homebuilders are too expensive, the stocks, or that interest rates aren't expected to improve -- i debate both those. in the end, the tol brothers report had disappointing launch. but i don't think it was bad enough to send the stock down 15% last week. the jpmorgan down grade was disconcerting but prediction for the future. not a new data point. still, i have to admit i am concerned. there are two things coming up if the homebuilders that i'll be watching. wednesday night, we need to see if they're having some of the same problems as tol. second, the fed meeting. nick pimerus suggests we might
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get fewer rate cuts than people are expecting. if the fed does anything to indicate had that -- kit that on wednesday the homemadebuilders will roll -- homebuilders will roll over. the trend i described, not lasting forever, right? things that were good, things have gotten tougher for this industry. so keep an eye on these stocks because as long as the bond market refuses to play ball, the homebuilders -- [ sound effects ] they're going to struggle. back after the break. coming up, cramer checks the vital signs of the health care stocks going into the new year, next.
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given how much stocks have run the past six weeks, it would be hard to find new places to put money to work. as we head into 2025, i think that opportunity is going to be in health care. mainly because the health care stocks have been such terrible performers this year, dramatically lagging behind the poorer averages. it's hard to bet on health care when the fed's cutting rates because these are textbook slowdown stocks, that's why they don't do this a lot. the elections was a clear -- election was a clear negative catalyst. for bobby kennedy jr., he's a
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big-time vaccine skeptic. if the second trump administration tries to dismantle obamacare like it did the first time, people getting subsidies won't be able to afford health insurance. that's very risky for the whole health care edifice. at a certain point this will be baked into health care stocks. i'm thinking we're darn close to that. over the weekend, we ran numbers to quantify the damage done to the health care stocks. it's pretty horrifying. when you look at the 62 health care stocks that are in the s&p 500, one average they're down 19% from their highs. that seems extreme when so many sectors are trading at all-time highs. that's why all week i'm going to comb through the health care sector looking for high-quality stocks at good prices. tonight one of the hardest hit subgroups, biotech and pharma. the 16 biotech or pharmaceuticals companies in the s&p 500 are down an average of 21.4% from their highs. it's the hardest hit suck sector. it's --subsector. it's decimated out there. let's not over think this. eli lilly is at the top of the
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list. it's earned its nearly $740 billion market cap. with the stock in the high 700s, it's pulled back 20% from the highs in late august. as recently as late october the stock was sitting in the low 900s. it got hit hard after putting a not so hot quarter and got hit after the election on an idea that rfk jr. is not a fan of glp-1 drugs. i think these are bad reasons to sell the stock. while lilly reported a miss, it was technical. and it's technical to cut its full-year guidance. the reasons for this weren't important. the company cited wholesale destocking from man jarreau and zepbound. i think lilly was being measured with its marketing and promotion at a time when supply was con stained. i don't think there are issues with demand. these are miracle drugs. if anything i say lilly is guilty of poor communication.
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that's a buying opportunity to get back in. as for the political saying i got to speak with rfk jr. o air last week on the floor when president-elect donald trump visited the new york stock exchange. i asked him directly about the glp-1 drugs. he said basically his preference is that people never need these drugs because they eat well and get plenty of exercise. i can't argue with that. but as david rich, ceo of lilly, said on the show, diet and exercise hard to stick to. there's plenty of people who need additional help which is why these wonder drugs can do. kennedy may not like it that we need these drugs, but it certainly doesn't sound like some major crackdown is coming. i think that is completely false. so in the end i see things going back to normal for eli lilly assuming they can deliver better numbers which is a fair assumption. we'll be back to focusing on the growth of the glp-1s. next year we get a pill version of the treatment which could be huge. basically you get a chance to buy lilly at a black friday-style discount of nearly 20% despite its prospects.
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what's not to like? oh, next how about vertex pharmaceuticals. it's evolved over the past decade from a promising biotech company to focus on cystic fibrosis to a pharmaceutical company with a $120 billion market cap. not long ago that market cap was hire. i like vertex because they're working on developing nonaddictive painkillers with potential fda approvals and product launches on the horizon. vertex is 10% off from its all-time high from the election. it reported a great quarter the day before the election. after a calm of days of post-quarter gains it's pulled back hard for reasons that aren't apparent to me. frankly looks like run of the mill profit-taking, stocks up 113% since the end of 2001 filed by the market's at -- 2021 filled by the market's apathy. as major pain coming, i've been saying regularly, i think you should consider building the
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position for bristol-myers squibb. the newest addition to the trust as well as headquartered in the hometown where i live. it's been hot as investors bought into the new strategy put forward by ceo chris burner who took over last year. now burner's trying to build world-class franchises in neuroscience. his plans started paying off when bristol myers got approval for the class of schizophrenia drugs. something it picked up in a acquisition. far fewer side effects than the competition. abvie has a product that failed a clinical trial last month. after a nice pop on the abviy physical euro, bristol myers has been -- failure, bristol myers has been down almost 9% from its highs. i cannot give a good reason. the pullback simply reflects concerns about the group, has nothing to do bristol myers specifically. even if the rally is some 42% from early july lows, this stock sells for 7.9 times. and that's the cheapest
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pharmaceutical company in the s&p 500. aside from the unpopular moderna. bristol myers sports a 4.4% yield. the second best in the group. the fundamentals improved directly in the second half of the year. the stock is dirt cheap. you're getting paid to wait for the juicy dividend. here's the bottom line, with so many groups hitting new highs, i think it's worth taking a step back and putting money to work in one of the most hated groups, health care. stocks have gotten too cheap given prospects, eli lilly, bristol myers. stick around for the rest of the week. i'll give you new fresh health care ideas at cheap prices. let's go to ron in new york. ron? >> caller: hello, jim. six-time caller. >> wow. >> caller: i'm interested in pfizer. i own 300 shares. i don't know what to do with it. i bought it at around 35. i don't know if it will ever see that again. i don't know whether to buy more or sell it. >> i don't want you to buy more. i don't want you to buy more. we need to see two good quarters
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in a row. it has a yield that's safe. on your six call i would say hold, don't buy, don't sell. let's go to richard in california. richard? >> caller: hi, jim. you're a true legend. thank you for all you're dedicated years helping -- >> thank you, thank you. >> caller: okay. listen, i'm concerned about amgen's canine injection drug, the third largest drug in their portfolio, around $2 billion in worldwide sales. because it's being displaced by in the united states and europe by competition. the competition is coming from asperion therapeutics, it has an oral pill sold in europe, $50 billion company. they're growing scripps in europe like gangbusters. and now -- it labels it here in the u.s., a coma drug, the insurance is covering the cost. this year the fda granted esperian drugs a prevention
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label. the only statin drugs with the label. the second concern in europe, the ema european medicine agency in germany have recommended it head of pcst 9. >> i'll tell you the truth, i am a believer in repatha. i know that's problematic to what you described, but i think that repathsa is a great job. with amgen there is hype about their glp-1 equivalent, and that -- the study didn't come through. so i guess we both find reasons. you're a good caller. i've known you for many times. i think your analysis might be better than my analysis. i'm saying stay away from amgenings and you are -- amgen, and are you, too. alan? >> caller: i'm looking to see what you think of the symbol biib. >> bio gwen, i'm not a -- biogen, i'm not a fan of. if you're going for alzheimer's
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drug go for eli lilly. i think their alzheimer's drug is going to be a great standing over multiple years. as we head into 2025, i think it's time to look at the health care stocks which in my view have been quiet for too long. coming up, more on marvell technology after the early december earnings. doing so well. i'll tell you where i stand on opportunity in individual stocks following incredible conversations with members. coming up the lightning round. stay with cramer.
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marvell technologies. the semiconductor company up over 100% year to date. doesn't hurt that they reported the quarter two weeks ago with strong tailwinds from their a.i.-related businesses. one sent the stock up 23% in a single day. can the momentum continue? let's check in with the hard charging matt, chairman and ceo of marvell technology, to get a better read of the situation. welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks for having me. appreciate it. >> i want to tell you, matt, with all the executives i've met you've been the most plainspoken about the revolution that was occurring in your company. >> yeah. >> you said it out loud to everybody, and there were a lot of skeptics. but could you walk through the narrative? you were very clear that a.i. was going to be the future for you. >> very much so. look, three years ago in we did an investor day. we laid it out there that in the cloud and in the data center the trend was going to be toward custom silicon. and custom silicon for a.i., the last three quarters we've been saying that in our earnings
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calls. in fact, i came on your show in april after a.i. day. and we laid it all out. $75 billion for marvell targeting market share in custom a.i. chips. and now you're starting to see in our financial results, in our third quarter and q4 guide, tremendous momentum. but it's been out there. >> it's been out there to the point where you flagged -- jim, pleads look at the press release we had. which was -- marvell expand strategic collaboration with aws to enable accelerated infrastructure. it was december 2nd. i looked at it and said, wow, i think that's really big. it turned out to be huge. >> it's huge. it's huge. >> tell us why. >> in two ways. one, it's actually a two-way relationship. so on the one hand there's a five-year arrangement where aws will buy silicon chips from us. both for custom a.i. and for networking. so that's one part of the
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arrangement. five-year deal. but the other side which is strategic is aws is our supplier. we use aws for our design of our chips in the cloud. we're an early adopter here. so it actually works both ways. both companies are leaning in to support each other, to drive the growth. so it's very unique. >> we would be wrong to think when we think of hyper scalers that there's just one that's a customer of yours. you've got others. >> we do. yeah, we do business with all the top four u.s. hyperscalers. we're shipping custom silicon chips that all of them. for two we're developing custom a.i. accelerators. >> but this is not necessarily to the exclusion of work you've been doing with nvidia. >> no. look, vidia's been a tremendous long-term partner of marvell. and we work with them in a very complementary way because we have a strong business in chips that are for the connectivity inside the data center, getting data on and off the chips and into the network.
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we work on those products, as well. >> can you explain to people that every chip, everything, custom silicon, every bit is needed. it's not like if you win somebody's losing. this is one where everybody needs your stuff. >> absolutely. look, we are in an unprecedented a.i. super cycle for a.i. as a service but also for the silicon tam underneath it. this is unbelievable. i've been doing this for 30 years. been through the cycles, pcs, smartphones, digital cameras, cloud computing, you name it. this is bigger than all of them. >> where are you seeing people use it? because we have -- still have skeptics, matt. will you tell the skeptics that plunked down $1 million because people weren't listening when your stock was at 72. it's at 125. what are people doing with these chips, when your custom silicon, that you know that they don't? >> think about it this way -- think about the data center capex that's being spent. hundreds of billions of dollars a year. >> and these are smart people.
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they're not wasting their money. >> very smart. what you want to do, if you're going to spend that kind of capital and the opex, as well, because energy is so critical, you've got to optimize your cloud, optimize your system. every watt of power you want to squeeze out in terms of performance. >> right. >> and power savings. and so when you optimize or customize all the silicon up and down the stack, you can get that benefit. so there's a huge economic reason that these companies want to go do that, but it's not a zero-sum game. >> right. no. >> this market size is enormous today, and it's going to be astoningly large in the future. >> why is it hard to understand your critical role in all this until now? you told everybody -- >> look, i think it's -- it's to be fair, i think it's a combination of we've had a strong story, we've had strong proof points along the way. but our third-quarter results and our strong fourth-quarter
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guide, you know, biggest beat in race we've done as a company, it sent the message that it's here. if -- it's not in the future. it's starting. >> you've had other businesses -- this that we're talk about, you have cyclical business that i think -- especially with an easier fed -- they could turn up big. they're not small. >> yeah, no. that will have a big impact on it. and in fact, when i came on here in april, you gave me a bad time about those legacy businesses. but fairly so. >> i'm a jerk sometimes, matt. >> but guess what, those businesses, like in enterprise networking, carrier, teleco, those types of businesses, we guided those businesses up 15%. mid single digits in our fourth quarter. so they are recovering now. so that's really the base foundation, kind of bedrock of marvell in terms of profits and eps. but then we have the growth kicker from the a.i. which is a much bigger market. >> why do people say, putting words in your mouth -- two wise
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guys said oh, matt's going to buy alterra. i don't think so. matt's going to leave and go to intel. i mean there's this kind of weirdness of -- a yesteryear thing that intel's got going versus what you got going. >> yeah. i said at my earnings call, i am so blessed to be at this company, so blessed. it's an amazing -- >> it didn't start easy. >> no. >> you should tell people you almost -- i thought you were going to be bankrupt at one point. >> it was a turnaround situation. very serious set of problems. it was a delisting notification from nasdaq. the board had turned over. there was no cfo. the auditor had quit. there was a lot of things to deal with. and the -- the bones of the company were -- the engineering bones were good. but the products were all in consumer tech. so the transformation that we drove, me and my team and this company, is to apure play custom a.i. data center company. that's 75% of our revenues.
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>> you are one -- >> it was zero back then. >> you saw it coming. and you made some acquisitions. some of it was little bit of luck. but you -- jim, i think this may have something big in it. you were the most transparent executive i have ever met. >> yeah. >> and all i can tell people is this guy told you what was going to happen, and he finally just bought stock in the -- you weren't listening. >> yeah. >> what a great run. >> yeah. >> matt murphy, chairman, ceo of marvell tech, mrvl. look at the history of this company. you will not believe how big and great it is versus what matt inherited. coming up, cramer takes your calls, and the y's the limit. a fast fire lightning round next. after last month's massive solar flare
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it is time for the -- for stocks to buy, my staff -- time's up. the lightning round is over. are you ready? with brian in colorado. brian? >> caller: jim, how you doing? >> i am doing well, brian. how about you? >> caller: i'm doing great. i hope to get time off over the holidays here. >> i hope so, too. got a lot of stuff i got to be cooking on. what have we got? >> caller: going into 2025 i was wondering how you feel about gold miners, specifically new mont corporation -- . >> i think newmont is terrific, and i think you'll do well. i think that we have to have a hedge, and it can be bitcoin or gold or both.
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let's go joe in huge? . joe? >> caller: -- in new jersey. joe? >> caller: happy holidays. >> same to you. how you been? >> caller: dow chemical. what do i do? >> i've decided it's just a china stock. it seems to trade with the materials and materials are trading off of china. doesn't matter if it's true or not, that's why it's going down. i'm not going touch it in until january because we've got everybody with a loss on the darn thing. to jade in ohio. jade? >> caller: great to be here, man. a big thank you from the bottom of my heart for what you do for people. >> thank you. >> caller: what are your -- [ inaudible ] >> it's fine but i don't like the insurers. i don't want to recommend it. to stuart in florida. stuart? >> caller: professor cramer. how are you this evening? >> i'm doing well. thank you for giving me tenure. what's going on? >> caller: well, i wanted you to
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know that i'm a club member. >> thank you. >> caller: i had the pleasure of meeting you and jeff at the annual meeting in coral gables. >> it's going to be fun next year. already planning, going to be great. you need you to be there. how do we go to work together? what are we thinking? >> caller: i have to thank you for helping me improve my account balance by over 40% this year to date. [ applause ] >> thank you. that's what we want. we want club members to make a lot of money. that's the point. there's -- it's a simple, simple goal. let's go to work. >> caller: about six months ago i bought into a small position in this company, and it immediately popped up 20%. but since then it's been churning and consolidating and going back and forth between 15% and 20% up, and it missed earnings in november by a few pennies. and so i was wanting to get your opinion on clh.
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>> clean harbors. my take is is that it's time to ring the -- up 40%. very event-oriented stock. i think you should take profits in clean harbors. i don't like the -- the stock's up a great deal. let's go to timothy in florida. timothy? >> caller: good evening. thanks for taking my call. hi to my daughters. sirius x.m. -- >> the numbers aren't there. we bot to move on. -- we got to move on. the numbers are not there for siri. let's go to pal in new jersey. pal? >> caller: hey jim, boo-yah. how are you? >> i'm doing well. how about you? >> caller: good, good. thanks for taking my call again. happy holidays to your family. >> thank you. thank you. >> caller: may the rally continue. my question was about reddit.
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>> reddit? i like reddit, but reddit now has a parabolic short. i don't know what to do about it. it's just going -- just going bonkers. and i wish that it has a pullback before i recommend it. it's an extraordinary chart and moved up too much. to william in new jersey. william? >> caller: good to hear your voice. >> thank you. >> caller: i got -- i got a question about press -- press stock at -- >> i don't understand why it's not doing better. if i don't understand why it's not doing better, there must be something else to it that i can't figure out. so therefore, i cannot opine on it. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." sponsored by charles schwab. cramer takes charge of stock picking in an uncertain market next.
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when you get to talk to investors -- i mean invested club members or people who like to talk about stocks, it becomes very clear that individual stocks alongside funds not by themselves a, long -- alongside are the way to go. i talked to people who turned against the orthodoxy with a vengeance. they own some and aren't going to leave the fold entirely. but boy are they tired of being patronized by an industry that's been conquered by those when think it's foolhardy to pick individual stocks. [ boo ] the wisdom says you're an idiot if you try to pick stocks. put your money in index funds
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that merely averages. but why do you tell that to a man i'll call robert, i met at cherry hill, new jersey, total wine and more. first he thanked me for allowing him to believe in himself. second, he said that because he did believe in himself he was able to make a judgment that nvidia was the next big thing. yes, he was helped by me. i was grateful for that. he described his thought process, and the repeated buys during the 2017 to 2008 in the wake of me -- 2018 in the wake of me investing in it. he said not so fast, let me give you the outcome. robert was up $100 million on the nvidia he bought in the time when i hounded everyone to buy nvidia. [ applause ] $100 million. even with inflation, that's real money. i thought i heard wrong. i went over again, $100 million? he said, yeah. i said to his wife, $100 million? she said, yeah. i went back again and said,
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listen -- tell me -- he said, $100 million. he said we came down to buy a bottle and to pay his respects. thanks for giving permission to invest how he saw fit not just in index funds. after the picture-taking section i asked him, please don't exaggerate. he knew the lot, the date. he wasn't exaggerating. talk about a satisfied invested club member, too. after that i asked everyone on line what they were buying. i got people who liked the index fund but were doing a lot of buying of stocks that we like at the club. tjx in particular. i heard people buying olly's which was recommended last week. i told everybody they're superb with lots of room to grow. i didn't come down to preach the gospel of owning stocks. that's like those that will be on the club call. by the time we were done, i found myself wait a second, don't forget the index fund component. it gives you more of a -- gives you safety blanket. if you have money set aside in an index fund, it's easier to take necessary risks with the
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individual stock portfolio. balance is the key. but i did feel emboldened to come out here tonight and tell you that something's going wrong with the industry i used to love. wall street's so enamored with index funds, they're either making a fortune from selling things or do think their clients are morons and they don't want to say it. sure they have warren buffett with his hedge fund managers that include a patronizing attitude toward individual investors who can't compete. so they should surrender to, yes, index fund. he's saying it to disagree. if robert were the only one who made a lot of money picking individual stocks, i'd say you know, ebay's the one to lottery. and you could say people at total wine are self-selected because of the investing club. i'm not buying it. i'm saying that the wizards of wall street and their journalist doppelgangers have gotten too proud of themselves for convincing millions of people to surrender to the mediocrity of index funds lock, stock, and barrel. and i think their era may be ending. if i helped, if i helped it to
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-- to end this year with the investing club and with tales of people making tens of millions of dollars by picking stocks, here's what i have to say -- i'm just getting started. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow. ♪ peter is the most seasoned investor on "dragons' den," the u.k. version of "shark tank," with 18 seasons under his belt. [ british accent ] i can help you scale this business from a global perspective. that's what i bring to the party. the british are coming! [ laughter ] ocean plastics are one of the biggest environmental challenges of our generation. [ british accent ] we have got the meals for busy people who care about what they put in their bodies. parm: it's a perfect tool when you're multitasking or when you have a coworker like mr. wonderful who keeps on ranting. [ laughs ] this is a lifelong dream realized, to be able to put my passion for music into my career. jones: i could be your perfect partner, and that's why i'm gonna make you an offer. i know how to make this thing huge. i'm afraid you guys might hold me back. who's ready to take the bait? it's a no-brainer. it's time to make some money.
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