>> wabtec. electric vehicles and rapid transit and transportation, rail cars. >> okay. [ laughter ] >> electrification, how about that? >> steph? >> that's the word. >> all right, we'll see how that develops. i'll see you on the "closing bell." . thank you very much, scott, welcome to exchange. i'm kelly evans. here's an analogy, retails sales what inflation to data. it came in light. signs consumers are getting a bit cautious. global 2025 hold on the retail and the macro front, we'll discuss that. our market guest isn't that much worried about trump 2.0. if escalations start an equity selloff quickly walked by.

an s&p target of 7,000. dealmaking is expected to flourish under the incoming administration and bank of america sees chocolate milk as one of the catalysts for staples there. we'll explain. before all that let's get to dom chu with key numbers. we have a down day not far away rom record highs, no stars to put up for major indices today, because they've been lowered, even marginally strong at some point we've given back at lot of those gains. no all-time highs for the indices. the dow industrials, a nine-day losing streak, that's the longest we've seen in quite some time and we're down another 260 points today. the dow industrials right now on a year to day basis up 16%.

at the 50-day average price on a rolling basis for the dow jones industrial average. the s&p 500 and nasdaq, were also lower, you can kind of see there. but if you take a look at s&p 500, 6,053. 6,090 was the record high. some of the stocks that have been part of this particular move, and we're seeing record highs. in particular, apple and alphabet and tesla, all higher on the day so far. tesla getting some help from an analyst upgrade and nvidia shares, further into that so-called correction territory, 10% pullback, nvidia and tesla have been the biggest divergence. tesla only mag 7 stock.

nvidia only mag 7 stock lower over the course of the last month. as we move through bitcoin prices, currently at 107,520. it's a lot. it gets a star, bitcoin prices continue higher, we'll see whether or not this is resetting of the ceiling and the floor higher again some traders are watching that price action to see whether this consolidation is a chance to break out, no signs there yet. we'll see if it happens, kelly, back over to you. as mentioned november retail sales topped expectations, up .7%, a lot of that was autos. retail sales weres lotless exciting. that said, my next guest said consumers will keep spending and with a degree of optimism into the next year. joining me is the chief

economist of the economics institute. and steve leisman. >> the pulse of where we are, a lot of people are worried that excess savings are worried out, dollar stores, lower income consumers are running out of cash by the end of the month, what gives you eason for your optimism? >> i think it's variety of factors, even today's report in terms of what essential does bureau released it thought it was strong across the board. if you look at the last three months of an analyzed basis, there's momentum, the consumer has been active now, not only just for this holiday season but we've been seeing certainly that trend when we look at the last several months of data here, so i do think the consumer is supported, i do think the

consumer is ngaged and we're seeing that spending specific to holiday season, we saw a targeted consumer, the consumer engaged when they have the most amount of value, this big surge of activity for the black friday period, and that seems to be continuing into early december as well. >> so, trader friend of mine who's quite bullish is still wondering or kind of anticipating the consumer will become more muted, the unemt employment will trend higher, credit card debt, kind of this possibly trend in hiring amongst small businesses, while things kind of look okay now, six to 12 months you think we're still in that same boat. >> i think the consumer has been well supported and i think continues to be well supported. when you think about the conversations we've been having for the last two years this

underappreciated of the resolve of the u.s. consumer to engage. labor market, we've seen job creation run in excess of expectations and excess what was perceived to be the underlying trend for the last two years or so, to me it's business cycle that has exceeded expectations. we continue to see growth. yes, we have to look at a variety of risk factors, but when you think about balance sheets, a positive wealth effect, now interest rates are coming down. >> yeah, steve, i think the auto piece of this is interesting. a tweet basically said if this a lot of this spend was autos and consumers were pulling forward those purchases in terms of tariffs, could we face a hangover into next year? >> look, kelly, you don't pay me extra for , you talked about

thinking retail and auto. the reason why is this, that auto number was likely affected by two factors -- one is hurricane replacement, when you have big hurricanes like this, cars take it on the chin in a big way and people have to replace cars, the other thing might be, and i don't have evidence of this, it's speculative, people buying evs perhaps the elimination of the tax credit in the incoming administration, so that's a question for phil lebeau, it's some speculation out there in the economics community which is why getting rid all of that nerdy stuff you focus on the x auto number, that's okay, i don't disagree with much what

michelle is saying. my caution is, don't take it as an acceleration here of the consumer, consumer seems to be hanging in, if jobs remain okay, income remains okay, salaries go up along with inflation and productivity, i don't think the consumer is going to give it up. this all the toe number pushed up the retail sales number to think the consumer is re-accelerating here. >> i'm playing devil's advocate here a little bit, the kind of economy where you look around and think, okay, we've gotten to a point, we have wage growth still, unemployment low, i'm not trying to create problems where there aren't problems, michelle, i'm curious what do you think the fed needs to do this week? >> i think it's very well priced they'll be delivering the 25 basis point cut tomorrow. that's very reasonable when you think about the success we've seen so far in terms of inflation, right, the level of

interest rates is still high given the trajectory that we've been on for inflation, the big question for monetary policy is to try to determine where equilibrium rates were. as we look into next year, we tried to understand where inflation stabilizes, where the real economy stabilizes, a little bit stickier, higher inflation, higher underlying growth relative to expectations, could it be the case inflation rates should be a bit higher and figuring that out will be tricky. my sense tomorrow from the fed, we'll see that cut and then we'll hear a lot about data dependency and figuring out as they go along. we'll have to monitor that data as well.

steve, stick around. new findings on tariffs and how they could -- what the inflation impact could be from your new cnbc fed survey. do tell. >> yeah, kelly, from wall street to the street, everyone is trying to gain out the potential impacts from the incoming policies, the cnbc fed survey asked our respondents about the first potential on inflation, from all the president-elect's policies to be enacted, 11% extremely inflationary. 19% see no effect. 15% expect a deflationary effect. leaning on the inflationary side, what about growth, dead even, 48% said they're going to be somewhat or very positive for growth. 4% said no effect. 48% say somewhat or very

negative for growth. how serious is president-elect trump about these tariffs, negotiating tactic or destined to become actual policy? difference here, 37% said they're a negotiating tactic and likely to be temporary. 19% see them as revenue policy. 41% say about both equally. well, we divide that up, when it comes to 25% tariffs on mexico, you can see here, two-thirds say that depends on negotiations, 11% say they'll happen and 19% are arguing they'll, they won't happen at all. 70% when it comes to china tariffs and the 10% extra tariff that could be slapped on that country with just 26% believing they're a part of the negotiations. in general, wall street tended to believe only the good parts like tax cuts and accelerated deappreciation are coming from this administration while discounting the tariffs and this survey suggests some of the good

and some of the bad may both be on the way. steve, stay with us. a negotiating tactic or actual policy we should expect. let's ask head of policy and politics at wolff. >> when we look at the canada and mexico tariffs a negotiating tactic, you know, he's trying to pressure them to take action on migration and drug trafficking where the trends are already heading in the right direction, a classic case of the situation make some token concessions and take a win and not go home without anything catastrophic happening. china, we may see efforts to negotiate, i think it to trump having a big sit-down with president xi next year. >> so do you have kind of a

numbers case if you think the chinese tariffs and you're talking about the 10% tariffs, how does that compare with the first min administration the effect on tariff rate on china is 13%. >> right now is little bit of north 10%. somewhere in the 30%. substantially up. he can do 10% across the board. but, you know, a lot of differentiate across product types. we'll see some of the items that are less visibly to consumers. in terms of industrial machinery, likely once again facing higher rates. >> this question, this debate was put towards the head of the national retail federation, here's what he told money movers. >> retailers have lived with

tariffs for the last seven or eight years, both because of tariffs that were imposed by also disruption of the supply chain. i'd think people would be surprised to know for example on importing from china things like apparel and accessories we import 40% less today than we did in 2018. so, retailers have moved away from china for many of the things they're sourcing. >> does your data jive with that? >> yes that's absolutely true. more pronounced on the categories of goods that faced higher tariff rates. things like machinery computer equipment than it has been to consumer side. declines in u.s. imports from china on both sides. within the consumer category differentiate is 7%. many never got hurt.

there's a lot of room to the upside. those numbers have fallen but they haven't fallen to 0. >> steve, what would you add to that? >> i'm afraid tobin is looking at this through the rose-colored glasses, i'll offer the following argument president-elect trump has a very ambitious domestic agenda, corporate tax cuts, individual tax cuts, a bunch of spending, and other tax cuts on things like tips and things like that. he also has a part of his party that's concerned about the deficit. he's going to need revenue in order to affect -- get any of this domestic agenda through and for that he's pegged that tariffs are source of revenue, if they're a source of revenue i

don't see how hey can simultaneously be a source of negotiation, in that if you count on them for revenue you can't negotiate them away at the negotiating table, so that's the rub i don't quite get how that square. maybe the domestic agenda goes away or these become revenue measures that aren't subject to negotiating. >> so, you know, this sort ofup side case, 60% tariff on china and 10% global tariff, that's enter in $2 trillion over ten years, that's right. we're looking at somewhere south of that. i think gesture in the direction of revenue there tariffs will be part of the plan for republicans how they're paying for it. they don't legislate those tariffs. i think we'll end up with a tax

bill that has significant deficit to it. further balance they'll point to the revenue from tariff and steve, i agree with you. we both know if it's $200 billion or less than that annually, two-thirds, half of that it's not moving the needle quite as much. >> no, i agree with that. and tobin is probably right to look at this as some form of compromise, especially if it's not legislated and whether or not becomes part of a reconciliation package, legislation or some form for the senate parliamentaryian to accept that, the president-elect talked about these things as two different things that strike me as incompatible. >> that's fair.

thank you. coming up, we're staying international as european equities have dramatically underperform the u.s. the past three months. a number of eo political risks the interims of this gravity-defying market with the nasdaq near record highs while the dow is on track for its nine-day losing streak since 1978. nvidia, the worst performers in this losing streak for the dow. how he's positioning into year-end and into 2025. >> announcer: this is the exchanges on cnbc.

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your dedicated fidelity advisor... -surprise! -for you, mama. ...can help you open those doors. by proactively reviewing your entire portfolio. with an eye on taxes and risk. doors were meant to be opened. welcome back. the major indexes are all lower today, some uniform activity here, the dow at session lows, if we close lower today for the ninth straight day the longest losing streak we've had since 1978 for the dow. the nasdaq meanwhile is just retreating from a record high, s&p 500 has been mostly flat since its record close two weeks ago. can it keep going? my next guest has the third highest price target on the street, joining me is the chief marketing strategist. at

deutsche. broadly speaking, why do you think stocks can keep rising with valuations where they are. >> sure, at the highest above ground level perspective, equities are about the business cycle, the business cycle is going really, really strong, if you take one very simple measure of the economic content, it's low unemployment, also at the same time very strong gdp growth, we've averaged almost 3% for two years now, and unemployment is still in the vicinity of 4% and you look back at history, you'll see this almost never happens, it's happened 6% of the time. and i think the times that it happened previously is very telling, so the first time was for four years from 1965 to 1969 and for those of us who aren't well versed in u.s. american

history that was, you know, what many historians called economic nirvana, 3 to 4% gdp growth, 3% to 4% real productivity growth, inflation falling. >> in the 1960s, we all think of that period as one of dramatic social upheaval. >> yes. >> the economics gets overlooked. >> exactly. >> the market did quite well during that president of time. >> it did extremely well for a long time. >> the stretches in the '09s and the 1920s years of back-to-back 20% gains, both ended up with spectacular crashes. your analysis of the '60s give us hope we can experience these gains without there being a hangover effect. >> there's a cycle and we're at a certain stage in the cycle

where i would argue a number of factors, you know sort of coming together, for now i'd say the cycle continues, i'd say the cycle stays basically pretty strong, i mean another very simple way to think about things, very little doubt that equities have risen very, very strongly, we're up basically for two years in a row, going up at 24% a year. so it will obviously slow or break at some point. but i'd argue that, you know, you're absolutely right, this is not a common or frequent occurrence, it only happened in the last a hundred years four times before where you have sort of back-to-back 20% years. that's the sort of a calendar take, i would put it, in terms of trough to next peak recovery

magnitude is not unusual. what's unusual is the duration and the steadiness with which it happened. it suggest partly because a lot of the rally had something to do or was not priced in. if you look back at the last two years it's very clear what that was, the market was looking for and positioning for a recession, we didn't get a recession of course so that gives you positive data surprises for a while. i'd argue as i was just arguing the economic context is very, very strong, if you think about unemployment and growth at the same time. and the two things together primary driver of volatility argues basically for volatility being low and strong risk appetite. >> two questions, one of them i keep thinking about the chatgpt launch in november 2022, the market basically went straight

down from the start of the year until more or less that point. is the business cycle -- does it go back to what's happening with sort of spend on a.i. the house sustainable. the second is, do you take the dominance of the u.s. market globally as sort of evidence that it deserves that kind of premium or as a sign that everyone's in the same boat and there's going to be some -- >> i think the second one first, the way we think about the u.s. and whether you're thinking about unemployment or consumption or growth i'd argue relative to the last ten years, two or three pandemic years in the middle of those 10 to 12 years, the u.s. just looks normal, i mean it's basically doing for the last three years what t was doing for the five years before the pandemic. i mean the trends are very steady in terms of spending and in terms of gdp, so the

outperformance of the u.s. is really relative phenomena. the relative performance, you know, is basically coming from the huge underperformance basically of the rest of the world, so if i take europe for example, you know we're rising in a trend, we collapse in the pandemic, we're recovering vertically like elsewhere, come the first, second quarter of 2022 coincides with russia/ukraine, geopolitical concerns, activity level has been going sideways for the last 2, 2 1/2 years now. what i'd say is that if the intrinsic dynamics in europe were bad we should have been seeing some decline rather than sideways movement. basically, it's more likely we

recover from here rather than we fall. sideways for a while. you know, our view on european equities is, they should do pretty well, they may not outperform the u.s. they should do pretty well. we're neutral with europe, but looking to go long -- >> that's reassuring. >> catalysts might come early in year. >> a.i., are you worry those stocks are in a bubble. >> we're not worried they're in a bubble, what i would emphasize from that aspect of things is there's always kind of something that sort of fits the narrative. if i trace back what happened over the course of the pandemic and 2022 and the recovery, i think the peak that you mentioned in early january was january the 3rd and that's around earnings and the pull forward in earnings was, you know, basically waning and not

just waning it was actually falling. so we saw a big decline in their earnings and the bottom of the earnings is the fourth quarter of 2022 for the megacap. the recovery begins. the bottom of the equity market. they drove the dow and the recovery. >> that tells me all the reason to focus on earnings season. as we always do. to make sure those trends are supported. >> this is really about earnings and i think, you know, main issue in equities, risk in equities comes really from big drawdowns in earnings which we typically get around the recession, you know business cycles seem to be getting a bit longer if the probability of drawdown is coming down multiple lgs go higher. >> your multiple for next year is where and your earnings

estimates are where? >> so we have .5% earnings growth. what we've been getting the last several quarters. it happens to be the average s&p 500 earnings growth outside of the -- we have multiples squeezing slightly higher. okay, and i think that, you know, there are several reasons why multiples have gone up and many of those reasons argue that multiples will keep going up. and so that is, you know, very unusual by historical standards. >> it's good to get the other side. lot of people point to them and say this is us sustainable and therefore a correction. thanks. coming up, one of the most

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welcome back. cnbc news update. the fbi has warned several u.s. lawmakers that china is working to create fake stories about them for their support for taiwan. at least one of the stories claimed the lawmakers were taking bribes from taiwan. the fbi didn't comment and a spokesperson for the chinese embassy in washington said the quote was entirely fabricated. san francisco jury found tech consultant guilty of second-degree murder in the stabbing death of the cashapp founder bob lee. planned the attack on lee after learning the app founder introduced his younger sister to a drug dealer who she said sexually assault ed her. and the u.s. navy award tom

cruise with its top civilian honor today in london, for his contributions to the marine corps for his role in top gun and other roles. it drove a spike in military enlistment. >> that speaks to the power of soft power. as it's called. databricks announcing a $10 billion fund-raiser. one of the largest of its kind in silicon valley. $26 billion. kelly, here's another way of putting it into context, if it were going public the second largest by deal size in a decade. instead, though, it was a series j, underpinning how startups can stay private in this day and age. ordinary investors can't buy in.

as part of its announcement databricks unveiled some financials. on pace to generate free cash flow in the current quarter and $3 billion run rate. it will provide liquidity to current and former employees. and expend overseas. he said the earliest was early next year. kelly. >> coming up, deutsche's remaining calm. we'll talk about those geo political risks. around the world with atwh

investors need to know. stay with us on "the exchange."

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welcome back. we're watching a number of

geopolitical hot spots. canada, now gets to join the list, finance minister resigned yesterday. trudeau's government scrambling to prepare for trump 2.0. france dealing with a credit rating downgraded from moody's. ukraine's intelligence service is claiming responsibility for the killing of a top general in moscow. brian sullivan has been following germany's implosion and the fallout for the continent there. we'll talk about the impact it's having on global markets. brian, bring us to speed first and foremost, what's the latest. >> i can't help you with syria and canada.

a german word translates into dark doldrums, we'll translate it into complete energy screw-up in english, i'm going to brag a little bit here, i apologize, we've been talking about for this 3 1/2 years, germany went one way and the power market went the other way. in boston they're paying about 35 u.s. dollars. they paid 420, one of the highest electricity is $35, only for a couple days. but it shows the failure and flaws in some of germany's power systems, it means, it's supercold but there's no wind, i'm not criticizing green energy, but when you build a lot of windmills and there's no wind, what do you have to do? you have to use natural gas, you have to burn wood, you have to burn coal and by the way the uk

and germany both buying electricity from norway -- >> causing their prices to go up. >> so norwegians are angry. >> they don't want to sell the power. >> since this moment, since the russian ukraine war spiked energy prices, he's hopeful they'll maybe turn the corner. anything that gives you confidence. i don't see it without some massive intervention on the energy front. >> we'll see what kind of new government they'll get. they talked about snap elections. if you look at spain and portugal, they're sunny and warm, a lot of wind and solar, they're fine, they'll be the winners, germany and to a lesser extent france, not only are they in political trouble, whoever

they elect, whoever they can coalesce, i think these three nuclear plants that germany shut down i don't think they're going b to restarted they're too old. what are they going to do? get them out of retirement. >> they might have to. >> i think germany's in big trouble. we care because power prices go insane over there, all the manufacturing is going to go where, here, and why we care, the u.s. market's datacenters, you heard about nvidia, no power, no a.i., no nvidia thank you, germany. >> nice to get some sort of vigor back in the continent. so if this all comes back to power situation, russia, ukraine, president trump is able to cut a deal, could that be the

way we turn a corner here. >> let me ask it back to you? do they rebuild the pipeline? >> there was a pipeline from the ukraine, which just got cut off, not blown up, but cut off because of payment issues. here's the retallty, germany's business model is built on two things, i love germany, number one cheap imported gas from russia, that's gone, unless they rebuild the pipeline that's gone. lot of labor from around the world they're railing against is now lower cost. we'll see what happens with the power situation but for now very good for u.s. lng and by the way, jamie dimon, the ceo of jpmorganchase, he was in louisiana visiting their new lng

export terminal because as we have reported u.s. natural gas is the plan for energy and saving europe's very cold -- >> a great way to put it let's turn closer to home. canadian prime minister trudeau facing the biggest test of his political career seema the latest. >> reporter: president-elect trump's tariff threats are sparking a political crisis in canada as the country's leaders try to figure out how to respond to trump, the country's finance minister shocking the country by resigning and now the prime minister is facing calls from his own party to step aside, not widely seen as pro-business leader that's why currency strategists say his departure would be seen as a positive for canada and financial markets but it does raise uncertainty about who will be next canadian prime minister. the premier of a canadian

province, depending on how this trade fight goes he's prepared to cut off all energy to the u.s. calling out states like michigan, new york and wisconsin that rely on ottawa's energy exports. in total about 60% of u.s. crude oil imports come from canada, though the u.s. of course has become a bigger producer over time. he could see canada using energy restrictions as a way to drive up the cost of gasoline prices for americans here thereby hurting trump's popularity, tariffs have become a big talking point. this stat, 49% s&p 500 companies have already mentioned tariffs on their earnings calls. >> seema, don't want to leave the continent of europe, you've been following the situation in france. the problems in france are a little bit different, what are

they exactly? >> this growing fiscal deficit that needs to be solved. a budget that hasn't been able to pass because you have very different views of the government on what the budget should look like a new prime minister has been appointed just four days who's seen as more centrist, the task is on him to pass 2025 budget for the country of france as we look at moody's once again cutting its rating on that country's debt if they're not able to put together a budget may raise some of the risks that france is dealing with. >> seema, thanks. coming up, the staple sector climbing 16%. the growth concerns cropped up in his resilient categories, salty snacks and even pet food. the names poised for a turnaround in 2025 and the areas

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bank of america is out with its 2025 read on the consumer staple sector. they see strength in categories like energy drinks, salty snacks, proteins and pet foods. they just upgraded general mills on improving trends in the pet food brand buffalo. for more let's bring in the food and beverage analyst at b of a. dispel some myths. what's going on with pet food? >> after a difficult '24 and some of the normalization that the pet food industry went through, really just a normalization period relative to covid we think things are on an upswing, both from general mills as it made investments into the blue buffalo brand. we're starting to see some early

signs of a turning in pet food spending. a bottoming in terms of the year over year growth rates in ped spend. pet food and a brand perspective we turn more positive on blue buffalo and general mills. >> a lot of potential moves going on in these portfolio companies next year. i wanted to rattle off some of them kimberly clark exiting that costco deal. what else, there's a lot, pepsi, is reset for frito-lay, what's going on with the beer business? each of these names is facing a lot of challenges, where do you see the most opportunity? >> yeah, it seems like every day there's been a headline in terms of what we've coined as the reshape and resets across consumer staples and most notably in the packaged food

companies even more so than beverages and household and personal care, these companies are still struggling from an organic growth perspective, when they're not that strong you look to pull other levers to drive value, one of the more notable ones is the potential for kraft heinz to reshape, you know, its portfolio through the did ves church of oscar mayer. mccormick, we just went through a very positive analyst day with the company back in october, one of the names that we have a top pick on. they have the balance sheet capacity to do more on m and a. not too dissimilar to 2015, going through strategic reviews of their portfolios. >> let me finish with what one of the most consequential growth areas, chocolate milk or protein drinks.

fairlife is owned by coca-cola, do you think that's going to be in the driver's seat next year? >> what we're seeing, kelly, is the basically the emergence of a new category that's taking the stores, the convenience stores by storm, a bit akin what energy drinks went through in the early 2000s we're seeing these high-protein drinks are taking a lot of shelf space in c-stores. bellring has its premier protein drink. coke has helped to drive the category with core power and what we think happens is that, you know, bellring will look to make a stra teen teenic distribution agreement in order to kind of penetrate that c-store channel. right now it's basically you only find protein sections in the pharmacy section. to compete against coke who's

building a new factory in new york. >> go rochester. thanks so much for your time. we'll be watching with interest. "power lunch" is after the next. car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! . car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. . before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com ♪ investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses ♪ ♪ ♪ whether your phone's broken or old, we've got you.

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