if you don't for any reason, have a happy holiday "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> good friday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures are off the premarket ows as november pce comes in pretty tame. it is a noisy friday, as we watch the government shutdown clock, triple witching, nike, fedex, and the resumption of fed speak. right at 4.5 our road map begins with these jitters. pce a little cooler. >> fedex and nike shares on the

move fedex is jumping after announcing a spin-off of it freight unit and nike is sinking after the turnaround could take longer than expected. >> plus, shares of nova nordisk are falling after investors are disappointed with results from a pivotal trial for its next generation of obesity treatments >> let's begin with the markets and the final important macro point of the week, november pce. 2.8, looking for 2.9 >> i think this is somewhat reassuring because if we do get lowering inflation. it's a possibility because we're starting to get our arms around what is causing it it doesn't reverse it because i think there's a lot of speculation. i don't think -- i don't think the fed, particularly damian, is after rampant bitcoin speculation after speculation nuclear power, after speculation in quantum computing

after speculation in what i regard as being these really kind of, i'll put them in commercial aerospace because of musk they didn't point blank say it i wish they had. that's what's going on here the air going out of that balloon. in its place is interesting fundamental news we're the most oversold we have been in terms of the ten-ye low. if you bought, if you bought today, three months later, you made money, in every case. >> you're talking about a shutdown scenario. >> yes, i studied shutdowns for my last book every shutdown is a buying opportunity. they're as frightening as we have been covering and they end up being a buying opportunity because they're so froit ighteng i know this is against the gain, but you're supposed to buy today, not sell it >> all right, all the data i have, all the data i have.

i have data going back ten years and oscillator, which is the s&p oscillator it's minus eight thank you to the s&p people. you have median gain three months later 4.55. sixty days, 11.0 this is unassailable stuff i couldn't believe it. i asked him to calculate it. it took him all night, but oh, my, you buy today, you make money. i don't know what to say the data is the data, the guidance is the guidance >> looking to wrap up their year with very good performance who have been disappointed we're hoping they have gotten out and finished things up a few days earlier and they didn't what are you looking at? >> i don't understand the outfit, frankly. what is that like a tj maxx thing >> this is a nice -- >> you got that at the bargain store. anyway, carl, this is the day. this is the day you buy.

i was watching at 3:30 and 4:00 a.m. and thinking who are these numb skulls who are doing this they are people who are sleep deprived, and frankly, we now know we have become the crack house. we're the crack house. >> journal piece is something else about young men, mostly, trading stocks who end up in gamblers anonymous. she goes to a couple of these meetings and talks to these gentlemen. >> this is devastating what's happening -- i know, i had it i'm sorry. it's devastating because what happens is it's this zero day options which by the way, you see the options trading today. these are people who are debilitated. they are the -- they believe that long term means you have to hold it to the afternoon these people, i feel bad for them because they're losing fortunes they don't know what they're doing. i have data from e trade that definitively shows, it's terrible but you have places like all

this - >> meanwhile, just about a minute ago you were saying today is the day to buy, but only today. are you helping this >> no, because i said if you own it for 30 days and 60 days it's good but i have to tell you, david, and carl, when i read that article about these people being addicted, and there's so much about draftkings and whether they addict. i think draftkings is much less addictive than stocks. >> there's actually a working paper also this week looking at sports gambling and the impact on what they call intimate partner violence, essentially domestic violence. a lot of social issues that revolve around gambling, investing, whatever you want to call it. >> depression, anxiety, all things that are tell tale of how to wreck your life are now part of our market. there was no reason to have the zero day options they make no sense

there has got to be a governor, some governor. this wall street's next test after fed, triple watching, 6.5 -- i mean, that's absurd people who are literally addicted in a way that we never thought would happen >> that's not -- come on >> that is largely institutional number >> this is an indictment of all of us. indictment of all of us. we have, i think, have to stop the notion of trading, trading, trading. and i try to do it with the club you can't do enough. we have people who literally -- here's the numbers >> jim, you spend every day talking about stocks and trading. >> actually talks about not trading it but owning it >> the club is about owning it, not trading it what i'm saying is a decent mixture is fine. but when you look at the robinhood numbers, this is

from -- this is the most reesance transaction based revenue, $538 million is options out of $1.9 billion. $538 million crypto is $268 million their next big line is margin interest, why aren't people talking about this >> we watch the metrics every month. >> we have talked about zero day options. >> the piece says all of this is under control, it's under control. nothing is under control >> it's not just here. >> we have to stress both. >> its the indian stock market, they have the same kinds of things there's enormous trading there as well on these kinds of products >> these people are losing a lot of money maybe they ought to take a little long term approach. we have to say look, if you think you can trade, you're up against professionals. and the professionals have software, the professionals have algorithms the professionals know more than the people who are day trading that's what i'm saying and people who are doing the

robinhood, i mean, they think this is under control? these numbers are absurd >> there are plenty of people who come up and say is nvidia going to be up or down that's what's going on >> we used to call it democratization of the markets >> do you want to start doing a weekly show? would you like to do that? >> i'm saying you can balance it you can do some of this stuff for fun, if you want to. but my father was wiped out by day trading and national video go google national video >> not familiar with that one. >> go google national video. i'm just saying we have a duty to bring it to attention i did not know about this. i didn't know about the gamblers anonymous for stocks >> you knee about zero day options and robinhood. >> a bad idea from day one everyone has to make so much money. everyone has to make money they have to make money on all the etfs they all have to make money. everyone has to make money

everyone we're hurting people if i'm part of this, i regret it >> a lot of people have made a lot of money this year given the performance of the s&p >> fidelity 401(k)s more than ever >> nasdaq up 9% as we sit here >> that's long term. i'm in favor of long term. >> i know you are. >> i'm just saying, everyone thinks this is under control is this under control? this is control? $538 million in options. is that under control? >> what are you saying >> i don't know. >> and it will take a certain kind of scenario to test it. >> i'm going to get yelled at by everybody. that's my mom's number she died 45 years ago. >> we talked often about the correlation, and we should move between sports betting and the market at this point and the melding almost of a draftkings in fact, you have even talked

about getting them together, i believe. i think i have heard you say robinhood and draftkings >> the ceo of draftkings is a more responsible person when it ands to gambling than zero day options. why do they do this? why? >> to make money >> hank you. the prosecution rests. >> it was a busy week for the fed. we got that one dissent from the cleveland fed president who has written a response, sort of summarizing her dissent. she writes, based on my estimate that monetary policy is not far from neutral, i prefer to hold steady until we see further evidence inflation is resuming its path i view my decision as a close call >> that's fine we're getting good numbers here. i had sean conley on last night, not sean connery, which was a great article. >> you're talking about the ceo. >> this one is a ceo of conagra.

it's eggs and meat that's where the intractable food inflation is from those are the two. he expects that eggs will get better there's no sign that the herd has gotten much bigger for meat. this is conagra, what, the biggest rocessor of all that stuff, one of the biggest. what they're saying is look, that's what is driving their inflation. i think it's great to know that because when we get more chickens, which we will, and when we get more cows, which we will, then we're going to see a decline in the inflation that is considered to be intractable when it comes to food. when it comes to housing we'll see a decline in the price of housing as we know because they can't move the houses. >> well, the median single family home is up 4.8 year on year >> that's about the change these toll numbers went from a million to 950 lennar, the guidance, they didn't give you the guidance

>> and the market hasn't opened up because mortgage rates -- >> they have gone up >> you're building a supply of homes which is really what causes a top look at that look at that chart look at lennar's chart it's happening it's happening in a way -- >> we talked lennar yesterday. >> it's happening in a way that the fed wants. that is if you get a supply, what happens is demand walks away because they feel like if you buy a house, the house is going to fall in value that's what the fed wanted it's happening we're way too hard on powell >> compared to building, the magic is in existing >> it will happen. the wild card is immigration you see the new populous numbers out? more than 8 million people undercounted census came out. >> no, i did not see that. >> it's going the fed's way, just not as fast >> that's for sure meantime, you have otherwise noise in washington. a midnight deadline is looming for congress to pass a stop gap funding bill and avoid a shutdown this weekend.

emily wilkins has been covering that for the past 48 hours good morning, emily. >> reporter: good morning, it looks like we're going to be covering it for the next 12 hours as well. they had plan a, plan b, and now this morning, mike johnson came into the capitol saying there is a plan c, except no one seems to know exactly what plan c is. johnson did say there would be a vote later this morning. he's meeting right now with some of the lawmakers in his own party who voted against that plan b last night and had concerns we are hearing that the vote could tentatively be at 10:00 a.m., but again, we're just not quite sure what this is going to be of course, it's not just republicans that johnson has to worry about. he has to be diligent about trump and elon musk. donald trump posted on truth social this morning, seeming that he could actually be open to a shutdown at least for now, while biden is still in office his truth social post said there's going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now

under the biden administration, not after january 20th under trump. he said this is a biden problem to solve, but if republicans can help solve it, they will now, of course, democrats are a part of this process, but these spending bills are supposed to originate in the house, which is why johnson and republicans are going first. the senate is keeping a very close eye on this. and democrats are frankly very upset that a deal that they spent weeks negotiating, that bipartisan package, now was just killed after just a bunch of tweets from elon musk and then the final death knell from trump. you saw a top appropriator, patty murray, the one who kind of oversees the entire spending process in the senate, come out with a statement this morning saying she is ready to work through, stay here through christmas, because we're not going to let elon musk run the government, put simply, we should not let an ed billionaire rip away research for pediatric cantser so he can

get a tax cut or tear down policies that help america compete with china what i think is really interesting here is we have very interesting dynamics here in d.c. it's no longer democrats versus republicans. it's almost democrats versus republicans versus other republicans, and versus elon musk so these are kind of the dynamics we're seeing now that we very well could have a big impact on policies that republicans want to enact next year >> a lot of president musk headlines this morning, emily. of course, musk's late night tweet endorsing the german far right. emily, thank you that's the one difference about your shutdown scenario analysis. we never had a megaphone like musk's >> i think what johnson is saying, somewhat like stalin said about the pope. how many divisions does the pope have how many divisions does musk have i don't think he does. >> no, but he has an incredible megaphone and unlimited amount of money >> yes, he does. just that the money is not

easily applied >> the threat can be, though, that we're going to primary you and i'm going to back whoever that candidate is. >> 30 gopers last night appears not to care too much >> let's back up, less than zero day 30 people overwhelm us a buy, you buy these i did so much research on this, and it was like you gotta wait if you hold 30 days. now, i know if you do zero day options you're out of this >> you want to do an option on how long it is before trump and musk start to have some separation >> i don't know musk you have met musk. >> i have. i met him, corresponded with him for a period of time that time has ended, sadly i would love to be in touch with him. he spends a lot of time at mar-a-lago, a lot. >> tesla stock, yeah, that's how you follow the speculation that's rampant everyone sees these things that go along the crawl at the bottom and their nuclear and space and a lot of these are fly by night.

it's terrible. people are losing fortunes they'll continue to lose fortunes because most don't have any reason for being they're just show games, and i don't -- i want to blast them as show games some of the nuclear companies have earnings but we're talking about companies that frankly are just set up to trade and i think the fed doesn't like it, but they can't say anything about it >> you wrote this morning it's hard to rest speculation out of markets at times >> remember when janet yellen said she didn't like the small biocap you can't be the one who calls the top in that stuff. >> some woman treasury wrote that line in they were short the stock. i don't know >> when it comes to corporates, we'll talk fedex and nike after the break. shares going in opposite directions after the results la nhtstig premarket, the equal weight s&p in a 7% draw down. futures still weak stay with us

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watching some s&p laggards this morning nike is going to open down about five off the lows, of course, they guide q3 revenue to low double digits street was around 7.5. elliott hill said the company has lost its obsession with sport and that the turnaround will take some time. we're going to get to that and fedex after a short break. don't go away.

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. welcome back we have six minutes before we wrap up the trading week got a number of stocks to get to this morning of course, fedex and nike, nova. let's talk vertex in the mad dash >> i want to put this in the context, everyone was hoping that vertex had the holy grail that they had some pain killer that was not addictive vertex will argue the trial that came out that showed no difference with placebo was not set up right and frankly, you shouldn't use it however, barclay's comes out this morning and says it was the worst case scenario. now, i know that vertex management is incredibly responsible. when you see management at odds with the street, i tend to want to believe the street.

this is all part, part and parcel of the problem we know with cvs, where we know there's an existential threat by the justice department saying they were giving away -- they were not supervising the pill mill, so to speak. what's a shame about this is that if this is true, david, we cannot get to the root of this opiate addiction in this country. >> we also have a fentanyl -- fentanyl has now replaced many of the other opioids oxycodone being one of them. and it is horrific, the number of deaths we have each year. it is down a bit from the highs but that's not saying much >> we know that it's in small towns, yes, but it's really everywhere and this was the hope, and the hope now seems to be - >> is this for this stock? is this where -- you know, probably -- >> they have a great cystic fibrosis franchise and they're a great company. i want to go with them, maybe things are okay, but this is

hardly down for the year i think it can go lower. i do respect the company greatly. >> all right we got an opening bell just a few minute away. you can always catch up anytime, anywhere by listening to and following our podcast, the squawk on the street opening bell podcast

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for next year, i expect growth to slow somewhat. to around 2% gdp growth. expect the unemployment rate to stay about where it is, around 4.25%. and you know, i think the disinflationary process hopefully will continue. there is a lot of uncertainty now for a number of reasons, including the uncertainty around some of the policies that may happenthex year. right now, i think we're in a really good place, the economy is in a good place most importantly for me, monetary policy is well positioned >> that's new york fed john williams earlier on squawk with steve liesman as we get fed speak up and running again

expect some more disagreements on the committee >> i think i like that because i think it shows that some people are looking at the data and saying things are pretty good in the country. others are looking at what's going on in large industries like in u.s. steel, obviously very bad you look at the auto industry, very bad and then others are looking at small business, like paycheck, and small business has to do well you need dissent because the economy itself looks like an elephant in the room small business, which we know is the backbone of the economy, is running so hot that there are a lot of people who say wow, maybe we do not need another rate cut. but then big business, if you look at u.s. steel, it's a tale that, boy, we're in trouble. >> steel warning that it's not going to meet the previous guidance of the analysts who follow the company obviously, there's a lot going

on when it comes to u.s. steal beyond the performance but it does increase perhaps the downside if and when this deal by nippon finally is broken. 23rd is when you're going to get the recommendation from cfius to president biden. and then 15 days is the period of time he has to choose whether to block the deal. the u.s. trade rep, i think, is the key component on cfius that is in favor, is what i understand, of blocking the other members of cfius are not but as we all know, the expectation is that deal is going to be stopped. >> it's a $7 billion company i don't want to go overboard >> exactly, it's so little you talked about newcore >> they bought a ton of stock when it was much higher. many of the grades are going down in the country. you look at nucor, the gold standard, this company lost 34% of its value this year

that's an example, carl, of why if you really think that the fed made a mistake, you would say listen, i'm looking at that company, which is incredibly important for construction, incredibly important for every single manufacturing partner in the country, and it shows you look out we're showing real weakness there. so we have got an economy that's weak, an economy that is strong. it's hard to reconcile >> home builders, worst week this week since june of '22. i don't know if you have looked at the ixb, materials is the first sector to go negative on the year >> you look at really fine companies. you look at dow chemical, here we are, 52-week low, down 29% for the year yield, 7.1%. obviously, the ceo just buys the stock, unlike lay they'll do anything bad to the yield. that's the real economy. or is the real economy costco? it's so hard to figure out what the real economy is. so it's a pastiche of that

mosaic of companies. >> where are you going >> fedex >> you had the ceo on last night. the results were better than anticipated outside of freight which is being spun off. but jim, the take i've gotten from investors is margins and nonfreight, express and grown were better than expected. there seems to be a savings program in terms of cost savings. $540 million for the quarter, that was better than anticipated. it wasn't driven by price but it points to the possibility of higher margins going forward then the spin, which we discussed at the end of yesterday's show, was anticipated by many. it might have been a disappointment if they didn't announce it, but the hope is like it is with so many other spin-offs, including our own, of course, that you shrink -- you grow by shrinking. and the multiples in the sector for pure freight companies are higher >> much higher >> than otherwise, and there's a margin opportunity given the focus of management and the capital structure that would be better attuned to the need of

that particular business >> that is wealth creation there. really praising him last night because i don't want to call the multiples insane for the less than truck load which is what they're spinning off, but this business, which is the general of the group, would get even higher multiple. the multiples are inflated he's taking advantage of it. i think that's very smart. >> here talking about rog subramanian who was a guest on your show. let's listen to his thoughts for the spin-off, which will take about 18 months. >> this announcement is a catalyst for us to create more value for fedex, and there are significant things under way for us in the next couple years, whether it is the restructuring in the united states, whether there are opportunities in europe, whether the share we're taking globally on our international air freight. the increased focus will play

offense on revenue we'll make sure we improve our customer experience. but i do want to point out that in a fedex freight benefits a lot by being part, connected to fedex. so we're going to make sure that the linkage is like on the commercial side, on the operational side, on the technology side as we go forward. >> wow >> explained it well >> by the way, he has -- there was an amazing chartd this morning on frank holland's show which shows the difference between fedex and u.p.s. fedex is up 32% in the period raj has been there u.p.s. is down 31% >> u.p.s. had a horrible year on the stock market that stock is down 21.2%, u.p.s. for the year just a very poor performance >> and this man, raj, is so smart. i was with fred smith, who founded the company, this

weekend. i think he's a great man he's done so much, yale, war hero in vietnam, silver star, comes back down to his last $5,000 from fedex which was the paper he had at yale. gambles, goes back to $12,000, comes back and creates this amazing company. there's no distance between mr. smith and what raj is doing. i have to tell you, i think this is very exciting for shareholders since this man has come in. they have great scale. the only countries they're not in are countries we're not allowed to ship to what a juggernaut. great american story >> let's get to novo as well >> absolutely, david >> we talk so often about novo nordisk, one of the two beneficiaries of the weight loss drugs that have revolutionized the ability for people to lose weight, deal with obesity. the stock is getting crushed you don't need to read it there, you can just look at it.

in the stock chart that we're about to show you. why? well, their trial, their long awaited closely monitored trials at 68 weeks, called redefine one, graphic you see, safety and investigating a shot, a once a week shot, that was anticipated, the best way i can put it, guys, to take weight loss down as much as 25% over that time period it took it down 22.7%. you may say, well, gee, that seems pretty effective and pretty statistically significant. apparently not enough, jim, for the investors in novo. or i should say that this was a success. >> no, i thought it was going to do 25% it was obviously something that got too hyped. lilly is better, that's why lilly's stock is up. at one point, their stock was up 80 that seemed to be aggressive lilly has the better data.

and so therefore, this is one of those where whoever loses the most wins. >> the next generation, obviously, after wegovy. in a statement, novo said that weight loss, 22.7%, is significantly higher than wegovy, and on a par, they say with best in class treatments. being basically zetbound statistically significant results were achieved, only 57% of patients on the drug reached the highest dose so they plan to optimize dose titration to further explore additional weight loss potential. that statement not enough to reverse this staggering loss in the shares >> no. >> for what was, i'm not sure if it still is, the most valuable company in europe. >> yes, i can't wait to speak to david ricks at the jpmorgan health care conference in a couple weeks because what you're going to find is they have so much in the pipe, so many different kinds. people continue to underestimate

what mr. ricks is working on at eli lilly. these drugs are going to be very, very big and as we get toward a pill and as we get toward ones that don't take a lot of protein away, it will be hard pressed for bobby kennedy jr. to say that diet and exercise are enough. i think that he's right, by the way, that we would love if it was diet and exercise. david ricks would say that, but diet and exercise are really what's behind glp, because we as a country have not been able to show the discipline to diet and exercise, and it doesn't work. you're not supposed to say that because we're all so pro diet and exercise, but glps are working because diet and exercise are a failure we have to own that. >> this is novo's worst single day price action ever. >> novo, this was the one where we thought, they have it, and they can equal or exceed lilly, and they can't lilly up 44. i go back to what the great told

me, he thinks it's a billion dollar company he's one of the great health care investors of all time >> he thinks lilly is a trillion dollar company >> trillion, sorry a trillion dollar company. if you believe ken is an amazing investor, you still buy eli lilly, which is why we bought it for the travel trust >> we had some -- we struggled to understand fully what was going on at the company after the first quarter. the stock has not regained the level it had prior >> and they had moved to google. and that is -- she's an unbelievably smart person. and she's turned, by the way, the google comps, no offense, but the google conference call was as good as the lilly was bad because she was running it she's a genius i don't know if you had a chance to meet her. >> i don't know her. >> she dazzled me. midway through the conversation, i think i basically said, i'm stupid, you're smart i just kind of gave up

>> lilly is leading the s&p. followed by a couple cruise lines as carnival comes in with a beat guides in line higher ticket prices, higher spending, better costs >> they are the ultimate bargain. carl, you know i'm taking one, a cruise because you were there when i bid for it for the fantastic charity you're on the board of, for the sag harbor i can't wait to go these are real bargains. david, i wish you could come with me on the one i bought because i think it would dazzle you. >> would i enjoy it? >> i think you would these are bargains watch for disney, disney is getting big in the cruise line business and when they get to 12 ships it will begin to imbact their bottom line. i think they have come down enough that you should be a buyer aggressively of the stock. >> 111 >> it's pulled back nicely from its high and it's a great buy. they have a great film schedule. >> mufossa getting reviewed this

weekend. >> i thought it didn't get very good early reviews >> they didn't like it they liked moana >> moana 2 was good. i saw it, i liked it >> you did wait >> i saw the part that i stayed awake for. i was there. you have to own that too >> we mentioned disney top pick morgan stanley earlier this week as well. >> that piece was ignored because the market was bad that day. i felt bad he did a lot of work on that he probably went home and said i did so much work and no one cared. >> he wrote about it, the day before he did his broadband piece. he did about 240 pages of publication there. >> just fantastic. >> we haven't gotten to nike it's interesting, the stock is not doing much the revenue numbers seemed okay. then on the call, many sort of characterized the comments from elliott hill as indicating this turnaround could take longer

than anticipated and now you have a stock that's up a little less than 1% >> it was up 5 then down 5 people can't make up their mind. but i have >> okay, and -- >> how much value did john donahoe truly destroy in four years? that was the underlying notion of the whole conference call this going -- he belongs in the ceo wall of shame. this move to go toward direct to consumer eviscerated the long term partners of nike who were mentioned one after another. and the company got away from it i thought this was music what do you think they got away from >> sports. they got away from sports. in fact, you may have it from the call if we want to take a listen to elliott hill talking about the challenges and his focus in terms of what he's trying to accomplish with the turnaround >> what i have seen is traffic in nike direct, digital and physical, has softened because we have lacked newness in product.

and we're not delivering inspiring stories. the result is we have become far too promotional. first and foremost, we have got to get back to putting sports at the center of everything we do our product management, we're starting to clean up what we have out in the marketplace. we're starting to shift dollars from performance marketing to brand marketing. we will invest in our field of play because that's where we drive our product innovation, our newness, our distinction and we will also invest in the brand. >> how long is that going to take >> i don't know, but this is when stark industries got out of the munitions business really rather extraordinary. >> you were there for that >> you did like it >> i took it to a sell the good news is this company now realizes it's in the sports business i'm not quite sure what business they were in in the meantime, on hoka, they took the share in the great

places like foot locker, where mary dillon was getting second rate nike, now she's getting first rate this man is doing everything right in terms of restoring, but he has -- it's like a starbucks situation where you get brian niccol and he's trying to deal with all the different things. i think nike is going to go in the right direction, but they have everything that could go wrong from inventory to slighting their partners to getting away from sports >> it's not like there's not a shortage of competitors. certainly when it comes to footwear, not to mention apparel. >> air force ones, i have a pair and i'm not going to wear them anymore, i don't think it says too many people have air force ones this was a devastating conference call. people remember the mark parker calls. i used to talk about how they were orchestrated because the business was so strong, and donahoe basically made it into a tool and die machine >> you don't think china macro is to blame in some port >> no, these guys took themselves out of the running. really rather remarkable and sad

because it's a great company now, i think this guy is terrific and he said all the right things but what he basically also said is listen, there's no quick turnaround here because we have really screwed up. we lost our mission. we're moving back to our mission. obviously, people pop prosecco when they heard that donahoe was fired. donahoe comes from that skein of people from consulting firms who don't have the heart and soul of what this company was about. and i think we're going to get away from that i think we're going to go back to the idea of pick the best person internally, like costco costco's method of transition is the best i have ever seen. they go for the people who have the most heart and soul of the company, that have done well, and that's who gets the top job. >> we have a piece up on our website about this year being a banner year for ceo departures overall. >> yeah, i think here's your hat, what's your hurry, and don't let the door hit you on the way out. >> high profile ones we just mentioned a couple

>> i didn't see anybody who shouldn't have gone. the one i'm most concerned about, karen lynch, cvs situation. >> you're very concerned about cvs. >> i am. i don't want a walgreens on our hands. >> any number of challenges that company is facing in terms on the health insurance front, obviously, it owns a pbm, we talked about that earlier. you seem much more focused on the lawsuit from the doj you were reviewing yesterday >> an existential lawsuit. the doj i think has had it with the company. they're going to make that the example. that company's balance sheet, intel's balance sheet is something that looks like a nightmare. intel's balance sheet is a nightmare. >> you just transitioned from cvs to intel because of balance sheet. >> cvs has a huge amount of debt, intel has a huge amount of debt >> intel is going to be a very interesting story in 2025. >> why is that >> for any number of reasons, including some of the challenges you just mentioned it's not clear to me that you

have the u.s. government certainly has an important stake there. was. you want to have a u.s. champion i think there are bankers crawling all over this thing we know that qualcomm at least had some interest. i can certainly make an argument if there was an opportunity to buy the chip design, broadcomwould without be interested and then the question is what do you do with the fabs i guess the idea is, will intel be intel a year from now >> the balance sheet says no that it can't be i do know that president-elect trump could use that as an example of why we shouldn't have government choosing favorites. i didn't like that i told the secretary over and over again this balance sheet is no good. >> we need to make chips in the united states. we cannot rely on an island nation >> no, we cannot, but gelsinger was -- he believed in alchemy.

>> jim, we'll watch bonds as well today obviously got some macro prints, as the ten-year hovered right around 4.5 this morning. we'll see where we are the election day gap, though, on the s&p has been filled. we're at 5840. and we opened the morning after the election about 20 points higher than we are right now stay with us

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some of this fed wariness this week has had its effect on bitcoin. got around 94k this morning. that's close to a one-month low. down for a third straight day. as much as 15% from this week's highs which you might rellca was about $107,000 meanwhile, equities pretty tame. dow down 14. we'll be back after a short break.

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build factories for glp-1, which we can't get enough of it's one of these things where had it been on a normal day, the stock would have been up 25. it was up a lot. this company is in the sweet spot when you're doing glp-1 and data centers >> you see that times piece on what happened when they realized they had some undocumented workers a few years ago. it threw their new orders and business into some disarray. $50 million worth of lost business >> i am familiar with the new stuff. i should be familiar with that >> just as a curtain razors on what the company might be up for. >> that's important. wow, look, immigration is going to be mare the story for next year, in terms of can robots outrun the decline in people at fedex, they're doing robots for decline in people. >> great point how about tonight? >> i have another area of the economy that is week, which agriculture. it's just over and over again,

we find these areas that are quite weak then we have williams-sonoma, and then we have chili's, i mean, a strange economy. we have a walmart economy, but then if you head to macy's, and macy's is a good company, but it's so small. we have two economies. and one of them is mag seven, and the other is everything else >> we'll see you tonight this weekend as well >> i like jay powell so much but i don't envy him >> when we come ba, ckchicago fed's austan goolsbee on inflation, and the path ahead for rates.

good friday morning. smp 58 50. a lot to watch as we

show this government showdown. high profile court results as the close of the final full week of trading for the year. >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. let's watch the shares of the had fedex. going to focus more on the core delivery business. we are going to bring you more on this ahead. tumbling after disappointing results. we are watching nike. at low expectations. saying sales would fall double digits in the current quarter. nike's new ceo warning of short- term pain but will speak with an analyst who just cut her price on the stock. >> good morning, rick. >> good morning.

usually there are not big changes. there are some significant changes here. 74 remains the headline. the strongest reading going back to april. here is where it changes a bit. last read on current conditions was 77.7. it's now 75.1. it dropped a bit, but it still the best read going back to april. we lost a bit, but consider that all the previous months going back to april were all in the low to mid 60s, so it is a bit of an improvement on a macro vision. if you look at expectations exactly the opposite. 71.6 midmonth. we popped up to 73.3. that is the best number since

last month when it was 76.9. that was the best since march. they are holding up well. if we look at the inflation also surprises. 2.8 on one year. it was 2.9. two point it would be the smallest since november when it was 2.6. the reason we are not seeing a huge drop in yields that's lower than expected because you have been there done that to a greater degree already this year. the same is true for 5 to 10. going from 3.1 to 3.0. below read this year was 2.8 so we are coming down, but not to extremes that we have seen already in 2024. yields have reversed up off of the early morning numbers were yields move down. the curve has lost three basis points of steep since the number this morning. back to you. let's get to washington dc now. leader scrambling to reduce spending bill to avoid a government shutdown which would

begin at midnight coming after a number of house republicans rejectedan earlier bipartisan deal. emily is live on capitol hill. referred to plan a and plan b not working. how is plan c going so far? >> we initially heard there might be a vote this morning, but no one seems to know if that is going to happen or what they are voting on. we are listing a couple of different ideas for what the next step might look like though. mike johnson is currently huddling with a number of light makers including some of those who voted no . one thing that i heard is congress is thinking about potentially doing a short term stopgap. something that wouldn't go to marsh like they initially envisioned, but cover a couple of weeks. we might have a clip talking about that this morning. >> there is a chance today a

short-term clean see art might be for two or three weeks that will get pushed out from one of the chambers. that is probably the closest path forward. >> we are hearing that what they could do is a plan that was actually initially originated by thomas massey to take the pill last night and basically break it down so that light makers can just vote on each individual piece. keeping the government open and just aid for farmers and then just the two year extension of the debt limit. at this point nothing is concrete and frustrations are really growing within capitol hill. we are hearing from the set aside because they have to deal with whatever the house passes. the top person who leads the spending bill said in a statement today that she is ready to stay in congress and

to work through christmas because they are not going to let elon musk run the government saying we should not let an unelected billionaire ripple way research for pediatric cancer so he can get a tax cut or tear down policies that help americans outcompete china because it could hurt his bottom line. touching on some of the many things that got stripped her down band that bill became a 100 page bill. this includes things like limiting american investment to certain chinese companies. these are things they really wanted to see and things they negotiated for and told they were going to get, and there is a lot of frustration. anything johnson is putting forward is a huge question mark if he can pass it with republicans alone because democrats don't seem willing right now. >> something else that has been thrown into the mix is the debt ceiling and suspending it. president elect donald trump is supporting that for some period of time. perhaps as long as two years. is at also dividing some

republicans? >> absolutely. if you talk to these hard-line fiscal hawks they say they were hoping to use this over the debt limit to actually get some concessions and pull back on government spending. addressing the debt. the deficit. just going ahead and having a clean authorization with nothing in it that addresses larger government spending issues is not what they wanted to see. they have serious concerns about raising this, but at the same point they understand where donald trump is coming from. this battle over the debt limit is going to likely be a bit of a messy one where democrats can exert leverage, so i think there is understanding of why trump wants to see a debt limit increase now. >> maybe we'll talk later about speakership and how tenuous that is. another issue in addition to the longer-term legislative goals. let's get to the markets this morning. our next guest is pretty

cautious in the short term, but not standing his chance. great to have you. good to see you. how cautious into january? >> i think we are in correction mode right now and could be down 10%. certainly some issues here. the circus is back in town and washington. maybe it never left, so that has certainly become an issue. i think the market did a pretty good job the other day of discounting the fact that the fed has come to realize the economy is strong and inflation is sticky, so there is no rush to lower interest rates much more next year. and longshoremen strike potential in the middle of the month and of course always my friends getting a little twitchy. not really happy with what is going on. nothing for a while rump bought himself some time set to

kind of make things sane and washington, and that is a big task, as we are seeing. >> you dew point to some bad reasons why yields are up. is at most about d.c. and fiscal responsibility? >> i think so and also the fact inflation seems to be stickier. i think the fed is coming around to that conclusion basically saying -- i think they are down. for they were saying they just wanted to keep the unemployment rate from going up because inflation was sort of under control. now i think they are realizing that is not quite true. they did not really get to 2%, and it's not sticking it to percent. it is more like 2.5. >> i'm curious about how the consumer feels about that.

we just got these numbers. many readings we are getting on the consumer tells us they are spending even if they are not thrilled about high prices. >> you never want to bet against american consumers. when we are happy we spend money. when we are depressed sometimes we spend even more money. i am still working, but my friends as baby boomers are retiring. many had two kids that are adults without mortgages were college payments. they are sitting collectively at 76 trillion dollars, and they are starting to spend that. i think saving rates could go negative. they actually like to see interest rates high because a lot of them don't have everything in stock, so having money market funds, so you have to kind of put that. we can't generalize about the consumer. those that are not doing well, but the baby boomers are kind of keeping the economy growing. >> what you make about what is going to happen with currency if we do see new tariff policy whether it is increasing what we are seeing or two new

countries? how does that shakeout? >> the incoming administration has a different view than the previous one >> although the previous administration did not lift the tariffs in place. >> exactly. but a globalization where we can work these out together. the incoming administration says let's focus on america's interests and let everybody else focus on their own interests and see if we can come up with negotiated deals, so trump is going to be using the tariffs as a way to negotiate, but i think with regards to the currency we may have a situation where if trump raises the tariff by 10% across- the-board the currency is already up a percent since the recent low, so that could be an offset, and the debt will actually force foreigners to pay for the tariff if the dollar doesn't go up and they

raise tariffs. american consumers are going to pay. it is a complicated story and nobody really knows. the thing about trump 2.0 is it is a lot of moving parts and some of them i think people think is going to work out all right, but as we can see already the devil is in the detail and washington. >> tariffs and deportations could bring inflation, which is going to keep rates higher, which will keep the dollar higher. >> absolutely. that is kind of the position we forecasters are in. we are trying to figure out how all of these moving parts. kind of like a patient that has an element and you say try these and you forget to look at how they interact. it may work. they may come up with positive results, but there might be unintended consequences. we can feel comfortable being in this. i have een bullish for a wild. i think it is time. goodbye of people are going to

be taken profits early next year. you do not want to do not because of taxes, so i think there will be some profit. i think january is going to be a sloppy month. >> we like to check in on productivity. we are hearing more specific conversations about a.i. and big sales pitches from salesforce per what do you think? is the needle moving? >> i think it is moving. i have been rooting for a run 2020s recognizing the 1920s was roaring but did not end well. that was a tariff issue. with the rest of the productivity of the story is not a forecast. it has actually been improving. now we are kind of back to average. we had been below average. i think instead of 2% we are going to see if up to 3 to 3.5%. that makes everything better. lower inflation. wages rise faster than prices and profit margins go up, so i think we are still on course. we focus too much time on washington and forget about the working staff that makes the

country actually do quite well despite washington. that is my happy thought for the holidays. think about how well the economy has done. >> and hopefully we don't kill the patient. >> and happy holidays. get a look at the roadmap you're watching fedex today. share swing between gains and losses following news of the efforts last night. we will goes through the earnings. the first full quarter for nike under the new ceo. we will speak with one analyst about why she is cutting her price target on that stock and exclusively chicago fed presidenbrki dn t eangow this morning's data in the fed's rate outlook for 2025. we have a been for you straightahead. don't go anywhere.

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for next year, as you know,

the dot plots are anonymous, but i have been feeling like there is a little more uncertainty. a little more noise. i raised a bit -- would you want to call it? the shallowness. i made the right path a little more shallow in 2025, but i have been saying that the overall thread is that inflation is way down. i believe we are on a path to 2% over the next 12 to 18 months. rates can still go down a fair amount. whether that happens three months earlier or later i don't think is the most material think that the thing that is material is we have gotten inflation down. we need to keep making progress. we have got unemployment to a stable full employment basis. we want to keep that stabilized and the way to do that is to have the rates come down >> the chairman on wednesday

sent the following things not together but separately saying the fed is significantly less restrictive than it had been the still meaningfully restrictive. where do you come in on both of those sides? where do you put us? >> i agree with both of those. >> do you think we are still meaningfully restrictive putting downward pressure on inflation and yet significantly less restrictive than we were? which leads you to think we are far from the neutral rate. >> yeah. all three of those. i do not think those are contradictory in any way. we had raised rates 500 basis points in a year. if you look at the real federal funds rate it was the highest in decades. we are now down. we have cut 100 basis points. so we are significantly less restrictive than we were, but if you just take as an approximation where is the longer run neutral? something like the median of

what comes out of the dot plots on the committee. they think it the ultimate rate is around 3% with inflation of 2%. a real rate of 1%. we are still about that, so i think it is meaningfully restrictive. that is why i say over the next 12 to 18 months if conditions keep on the way they have over the last 18 months i think rates come down a fair bit more. >> i was really struck by powell talking about how consumers are feeling right now about prices. i circled this thought a lot of that it's not the consumers worried about inflation because we know the rate has come down, but prices are still very elevated from where they were in 2019. around 20% on average. what is your ake on that as a member of the fed?>> for sure

you are right. the price level is higher. you hear about it all the time. when i talk to consumers or businesses there is a marking of their thinking of the price levels are much higher than before. the fed goal is to percent inflation. .a price level target. in a way we do not have a lot of tools to have massive deflation and return the price level to what it was in 2019. our goal is to get inflation down to 2% and to hope that growth in the economy that real income can arise faster than the prices and the good news is lately that is what is been happening. and then the question of does the high price level leave consumers to spend less? so far that has not been true.

as you know, over the last year and a half a lot of the private sector prognosticators said there could be no soft landing if you're going to get inflation down. it would have to correspond with a big recession and people spending less the consumer was going to fall apart. fortunately that prognostication has not been true. we have been able to reduce inflation quite significantly without the drop in consumer spending and the recession that they had been. >> some of the speculation, and the chair said this happened that some members of the committee started to pencil in some of their beliefs about the impact would mean for inflation and growth. can you talk us through how you process that? >> yeah. my starting point is we are not

political pundits. we do not know what is going to pass congress or be proposed and that kind of a thing. the law gives us the job. stabilized prices and maximize employment. and it conditions whether it comes from fiscal policy or geopolitics or just overall consumer behavior. anything that is going to affect prices and employment our job is to think through those scenarios. everybody is trying to put that together. i still think we are very early in the process. we do not know what they are going to propose. when they start proposing things we will analyze that just like we analyze any other conditions. what are they going to do to inflation and employment?>> this is not a theoretical question. have you begun that process? was it a part of your thinking

for next year? >> i do think the uncertainty about policy makes it particularly hard to make estimates of what the neutral rate is and what the inflation rate is in particular. i am not arguing about the destination. i think it is still the same. over the next 12 to 18 month rates can come down. if we are getting a boost to the growth rate. if in the business sentiment and consumer confidence if we get an uptick in those that can serve to offset other negatives. i think i'm trying to think through those scenarios, but i am just weary about over indexing on things that are purely speculative.>> this is

the best part of the interview where we attempted to nail you down to an answer that you do not want to give. i will acknowledge that to begin with. tell us where you think rates are going to go next year and if you say i am not answering that question. >> i think they are going down. >> the conditions will be employment and prices. all of these things we are arguing about they don't control this is like our own thing in the midwest. there is no bad weather. on the bed clothing.

i will tell you what kind of jacket we need >> i like a judicious amount. just very quickly. we are now on a different phase. we were recalibrating somewhat apart from the date of. know it is going to be more data dependent and in the past >> are you trying to trick me by what you mean >> we are not just backwards looking if that is what you are asking, but for sure the data and the conditions in the economic outlook is what is going to determine how fast rates can come down. the landing spot if you look at the dot plots there is wide consensus that what is the long run neutral rate is well below where we are today.

i think we are on path to get more readings on inflation like the one we got today that shows we are headed to 2%. i think if you take the last six months of inflation it's very close to 2%. it seems like a lot of the first quarters we have had higher inflation than was expected, which makes me wonder a little bit about the seasonality correction. for sure stuff like that could happen and we have uncertainties around the world and from policy coming on the fiscal side. the overall trajectory over the last two years if you take the long arc it's pretty clear inflation is way down. it is heading towards 2%.

if you look at inflation expectations they are not moving. they are concentrated on 2% and we didn't have the recession that a bunch of people said we would.>> a good place to leave it. thank you for oining us today. i was not trying to trick you. if i was you wouldn't have known it. >> have a great holiday. she is a little more hawkish and wants to hold her powder until she sees the whites of the eyes of 2% inflation. some peopleare ready to take a

fire on the idea they believe the trajectory has been done and will continue to be down. today they got a little help from the data. >> that has been atypical for him though. they have been sounding the same thing. >> he has been. plenty on board with raising rates when there was inflation her problems and has been on board and what is interesting is he was a part of the prior administration or the obama administration and seems to care less. obviously one of the big discussions on the street is the notion how much did they dial in of trump?>> i will give you one way that you have to do it. you have seen these business surveys that show the rise and optimism. some of those surveys can be part of the models. if they go into the model and the model spits back higher growth or higher inflation what is going to happen is the inflation forecast is going to go up. you can't avoid its. could potentially feed into the input. was capital spending going to be next year? you have to take a flyer on that. the president elect's policies are the elephant in the room.

you cannot possibly think about next year without having some of those. the reason they are interested in this is because what they want to know is did they put a down payment on this policy such that there won't be so much of an increase in the outlook next year when we know more about it . is some of that already built in? that is why i ask. he expected it to come in in march. they might have pulled forward some of that expectation. you are doing it and courtney is doing it. >> that obviously was. very clearly if you are listening to us. i promise you can see it on the chart.

>> it is green like one side of a christmas tree. the red was from the morning. you had good inflation numbers. there is a lot of criticism on the fed right now. you can take a step back and say i have 3% growth. 442% on unemployment. i have been inflation number that is within half a point of the target. go home. drink some eggnog. and gave back a lot of the gains. >> which gains? >> just the post jump about half of that went back. >> we are back to election day. we are lower then we were the morning after the election. >> i believe you. there are plenty of reasons to criticize the fed. they could have done this better. i do not think we are in a bad

place economically and with policy. what powell has been saying is if things get worse i'm going to cut more. if they get better i will stay the same. the fed is paid to be in a box. that is what they do. also try getting what you just described in germany or china at the moment. >> the have done better in all of those regards. i think courtney's question a spot on. the issue of dissatisfaction with the price level. there is no response from the central bank to that . the might have acted earlier. >> the do not really have the tools. >> if you want to have price levels go down that is fine. you can also accept a lower salary. when you have deflation prices go down and salary goes down with it and that is why the fed has been so insistent upon not going for the target and not supporting the deflationary process. >> think you for being here in

good to see you in person. has been a while. we are keeping an eye on shares of fedex. it is actually down about half a person following news the company will spend office redivision that had been a key question. expected perhaps to be the case. frank is taking a closer look at the overall reaction. >> good morning. it will have a major impact on fedex. that is up from around 10% previous years. they hope separating it will unlock value for shareholders. they are raising questions of execution risk that they say will take about 18 months. fedex raise the largest in the u.s. but trades as a part of fedex at a discount to its peers.

you know they maintain a $200 price turn. also raises questions about what percentage of freight revenues are tied to contracts with the parcel business. they also had questions about the financials as they stand on the company including the margin impact and the corporate expenses. he did address all of that on mad money saying they will have close ties and keep working together. that bundling of both of the services has been a winning business. overall a very bullish take on wall street. with new notes raising their price targets focusing on the value. one of the banks raising their price target. the highest i saw so far. it was expected.

>> interesting night last night. thank you. got a nice little rally going here. let's get a news update. >> hello. here is your news update. state permits a top u.s. diplomats are in syria and expected to hold talks with the country's new leaders. officials will discuss the seven principles including inclusivity and respect with the rights of minorities, but the rest wants included in the political transition. there is any bipartisan push in washington to extend the deadline for the ban on tiktok democratic senator and republican senator paul urged president biden to extend the january 19 deadline by 90 days given the laws uncertain future in the supreme court. senators also cited the potential consequences for free expression if dement takes effect. they will hear oral arguments on january 10. netflix continues its push for sports announcing a deal

today for your streaming rights are to be 2027 and 2031 women soccer world cup. back to you. still to come. we are going to hit nikes quarter. the new ceo outlining a strategy to get the company back to growth. the stock lost half its value over the last three years protracted those changes to the s&p. we will go to the index after the close tonight. every sector is green. ehh... hmm. oh, that's very, uh... - right? - mmm... this store doesn't have agentforce, so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails.

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for the new month you do not want to make too much out of any one month, but i am hopeful this suggests the couple of months were more of a bump than a change in path. >> stocks are spiking following the interview with the chicago fed who said rates would come down next year by a judicious amount of. probably listening to that. we have this decidedly positive today? >> the market had been getting some traction. the scene setting aspect was just exactly how direct the majority of stocks have been internally. market was looking pretty washed out. yesterday as well. i think you got that extra push. clearly conveying the idea there is no dispatching of fed officials out there following the decision to re-assert the hawkishness of the message if not nothing else.

you have this opinion and outlook on the committee. is still saying we are restrictive. the economic numbers the last couple of days have been okay. claims were fine, so maybe not as much change as the average stock had implied. that being said the s&p got yesterday's high like 59.20. a process not a moment, but there are the makings of having a little bit of a rebound. we just reset to a large degree. going to back to the day after the election, and i think you had to ring out a little bit of the excess optimism that was building in all of the year ahead reports. >> was it just getting us back to a calm her place after the election? knowing that we don't know everything that is going to occur. be built up too much optimism. >> there was an excess of certainty about next year about everything firing from an

expansion that might accelerate. a fed cutting into that expansion. some kind of growth friendly policy next and that it was all going to come together for this. it might actually still play out that way, but i do think you had a moment there in early december where it felt as if in every direction all you saw was optimism as opposed to a more nuanced feel. i think that is exactly the process we have been dealing with. the bond market if it becomes on anchored and if yields continued to fly. they're coming in a little bit today. i think that would have forced the action. real yields about 2% have historically really given pause. >> although i noticed yesterday saying you would have to go to change the longer-term trend line. >> it is feeling like a breakout. at least that is what some of

the indicators say now appeared eyeballing it we were higher than this last spring. we are also steeping . the shorter-term yields are also giving back a little bit because of what the fed told us they might or might not do. >> i noticed goldman keep the q4 tracker. no changes either way.>> what the fed told you is you better keep wishing for good economic news. if they are going to do less because of inflation being sticky want to hang in there. >> this is the last full weekend have next week to go. expectations from here? >> the expectations are basically only built on seasonal tendencies. we frontloaded but sometimes is a bit of a hangover affect after a great run.

we have this massive expiration plus index rebalance. feels as if you had people over exposed to a lot of the key themes coming into december. may be a gut check and those people are not as far out after this pullback, and maybe you can enjoy some of it. if it doesn't happen you have to squint and say is the market se >> talked about january tax be any reason to the that would be more pronounced this year? >> it should happen this year. he means people that did not want to realize gains into next year. i do not think there is a reason except in those names that not nothing but up all year. if it happens it will be good news for the budget deficit. that is the one way collections and supplies the upside. >> we do track receipts as they start to come in

>> coming up. we will check in with the ceo of carnival this morning on their results. pretty good quarter. has been a win over the last couple of years. over 200%. we are back in two.

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strict orders and investors trying to recover from this week's big post-feta selloff. buying dips has worked tremendously well, but is a different isimarndth te ou? one chart watcher is scanning the market for the big setups that are best right now.

chicago fed resident spoke with us a few moments consumerist on the path to get to 2% inflation. let's talk about that with our

next guest. nice to have you here onset, david. you discussed the fact that coming up with the new administration you are expecting higher tariffs and lower net immigration and full extension of the 2017 tax cuts. you go on to say while significant you don't expect them to substantially affect the trajectory of the economy. why not? >> i think tariffs will probably have the largest impact on inflation, but if we get to an intermediate scenario with some tariffs on china and perhaps autos but not the large universal tariff we estimate that would be worth about 30 to 40 basis points on inflation. in the absence of tariffs we would expect the underlying inflation trend to be falling from the high two's to the low two's. what is left of the overshoot

of 2% largely looks like catch up inflation and when you have caught up in level terms you don't expect any further terms. the implication of the terrace would be that we fall to the mid two rather than the low two's. doesn't dramatically change the path. on the gdp side the different policy changes would have offsetting effects. fewer people and fewer immigrants means fewer workers. that is modestly negative for gdp. tariffs function like a tax. they will probably invite for retaliation that would have a negative effect on gdp, but we expect some tax cuts. the full extension of the 2017 tax cuts including reinstatement of business tax incentives and additional tax cuts. those will probably come a little later, so i am accountable saying these are offsetting over 2 to 3 years. maybe at the beginning we will get the tariffs.>> obviously

all of this we just don't know. how deep when it comes to tariffs and deportations and even the tax cuts we will have to wait and see. you have to make a prediction, but if things remain the same do you expect we will get to 2%? >> not this year, but probably next year. or not 2025. with tariffs we think we will get to 2.4 or 2.5. you should not be that complicated to get a sense of roughly what they are worth. we might have a little more confidence by the end of next year then the inflation numbers suggest. >> one of the surprises among some was the fact forecast for unemployment. some feel the level of job

openings suggest more vulnerability to the labor market then the committee takes into account. where do you think we talked about on? >> the also have the unappointed rates stay roughly stable. we are within have a basis point of 4.3, so that is a small difference but i would be a little more focused on risks on the side of it not particularly worried about inflation. i am not that worried about the labor market because i think the main reason the unemployment rate rose is simply that it was hard to digest millions of additional immigrants creating jobs for everyone in a short period of time. labor demand is not week. the layoff rate is extremely low. i think this problem will solve itself. i do not know that for sure just yet. i thought chair powell was right to emphasize we should be attentive to that risk >> david, thank you for joining us. nike pt on the top and bottom lines, but the sales fell 8% from the year prior.

we heard from elliott hill from the first time as ceo on the car yesterday. saying it was not strong. i'm going to fix all that. can he do it? >> i think there are some things that he can fix very quickly such as product. some of those has been a part of nike's agenda a year and i have, but he does sound optimistic about what nike has done already. some of the new products that are coming out in 2025. he sounded optimistic about what there is in the pipeline. the stuff that he can fix is on the tactical side. how they merchandise products and put products into the channel whether it is wholesale or direct to consumer or online. he is working aggressively on that, and that is actually has background.

he knows the channel dynamics extremely well, and that is where he can make the biggest impact. we are seeing that because they are clearing a lot of old product trying to restore supply and demand balance with the channel. >> i found that very interesting when he was talking about needing to repair the wholesale relationships. he was naming names of the executives he talked to at some of these retailers that sell nike product. how quickly could that be fixed? >> a part of the reason why he's the ceo is he has these long-standing relationships the board valued, which retailers across the globe and not just u.s. but european and asian retailers and he has harvested those relationships to try to rebuild connections to get them back up for the next year. reestablished the partnership that nike has had somewhat abandoned the last few years. i think the relationship side is very strong. that we need to see is the product because retailers are

not going to buy product because of relationship. it needs to be strong. initial feedback we heard is that it is, but we need to see that hit the market for those relationships to come alive again. >> go ahead and give us your investment thesis as we go through short-term pain as the company described it potentially for some long-term gain. >> we have a new ceo completely slashing guidance for the next two quarters. this is a reset that many investors were looking for from which point the stock can grow. sentiment is very washed out . the reaction dave was basically down on a pretty aggressive earnings account, which shows you how uncrowded the stock is. when we see some momentum weather in the product or the retail relationships and sales stock is going to work, so that

is why i remain positive. i think the turnaround is on its way and you should see some signs in the first half of 2025 even. >> going to be interesting to watch. thank you very much and happy holidays. >> thank you. we are keeping an eye on a market that is having a bit of a rally. we are going to keep following it in the next hour. do not go anywhere.

♪ ♪ good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." today, stocks are looking to close the week on a bullish note as inflation data comes in better than expected with some dovish comments from austan goolsbee moments ago is this a turning point as we go into the final two weeks to have year plus, smooth sailing as the stocks continue to outperform. the ceo for carnival joins us for the outlook of 2025. speaker johnson says they will vote on a new funding deal this morning after two