when he played for the mont claire high. >> thank you for the memories of the bathrobe days as well. >> oh yeah. >> one of our favorite moments. >> he used >> he used to come on in the kitchen. >> here is everyone to give you a sendoff as well. [ applause ] >> here we go! thank you. >> we always get out right on the nose not tonight. "closing bell" starts right now.

where the markets might head from here. the scorecard with 60 minutes to go we are higher across the board more cuts are coming that inflation is heading back to 2%. big jumps in rate-sensitive small caps today and other areas of the market where you would expect to see that mega caps are higher how about volatility a nosedive today the vics as well a big jump on the fed chair the other day. there it is. that's what i was trying to say. down 23% you get my idea. it takes us to our talk of the tape is the rally okay?

did stocks overreact to the fed chair? let's ask chris toomey are we good? is the rally -- it felt like it may be in jeopardy a couple of days ago >> problem solved. this is the last important number for the end of the year typically, seasonality comes in. i think people want to see the market go higher this was the catalyst. if you look at positioning, market was way oversold. this was just the thing that the market needed to rally going into the end of the year. >> did anything really change? we think how we are thinking about the fed. i want to read you something it speaks to that. the expectation of easier money was incremental, fuel for

equities, particularly in the higher velocity parts of the market the fed variable will be a floor, rather than a catalyst. >> absolutely. now it's a question of whether or not you will see the growth that will deserve this higher multiple the market itself has been bracing for rates to come down dramatically over the last two or three years most important thing we saw on wednesday was the fact that powell conceded that inflation is not to get to 2% in 2027. you are in a situation where you really have to see what's going to happen with regards to what's coming out of washington and what that looks like is this a situation where washington is going to have

impact on tariffs and immigration or tax cuts? >> why is it either/or it sounds like they will do both they may do the former first they say they are going to focus on tariffs, number one, and immigration number one a >> that's what the senate wants to do. >> you know the other stuff is coming >> it's a question of what it's going to look like we're in a situation where we have got a potential shutdown of the government i think we're in a situation where we don't know exactly what this is going to turn into everyone assumes because you have had this red wave that the republicans are going to come together and get all this stuff done historically, having split government is usually a better outcome with regard to getting things done, because you can

get -- you have more room for compromise the constituents aren't as tough on their elected officials >> it feels like if nothing else, the re-pricing of the fed into the new year has taken the froth, if you will, out of certain parts of the market that started to look a little ridiculous i feel like that's what rick reider was talking about yesterday. he said the last couple of weeks felt a little bubblish in terms of some of the sectors >> absolutely. if you look at some of the numbers coming out of places like -- robinhood and other retail places where the amount of options buying going on -- that's a good indication of speculation entering into the market the other thing is the market got offsides with regard to expecting additional rate cuts coming if you look at the sell -off,

anything down more than 10%, it was stuff that would benefit with regard to rates coming down, utilities, real estate, or even looking at the russell 2000 value which has a lot of financials it wasn't just repricing the more speculative areas it was repricing the areas that would benefit the most with regard to rates coming down. >> i hear you. rates are coming down. that's what i alluded to i think rates come down a fair bit more he went on to really underscore that, hammering the fact that inflation is heading towards the 2% target. we're not that close to neutral yet. there's a fair amount to go to until you get to neutral rates are coming down. >> i don't know about that if you look at the three month, it has come down look at the ten year, it's up versus where it was a year ago

today. we are in a situation where mortgages are going back up. i don't know necessarily we're in a situation where you will see rates come down dramatically i think we are probably more likely than not in a situation where rates are higher for longer the net neutral rate, going back to 2012, was significantly higher than where it was today at 3%. i think we're this a situation where you could be a situation where rates stay here and then companies and industries that are really depend enter on ent coming down, they suffer >> those are regional banks and things like that if rates are up or staying near here for the right reason, not because we are refiring e ing inflation -- >> if you see some of the initiatives s coming through -w

think there's a fair amount of ipo activity coming into 2025. all of that should be stimulating the market this will be a traders' market some will struggle versus other areas where you will see tremendous growth. it might be a situation where the indexes don't do a lot but there's a lot going on underneath. >> where do i want to lean into? i feel good but i'm not sure of the timing of certain policy initiatives that will come down the pike next year do i want to stay large in the market >> i would look at -- obviously, this is an overused term higher quality, companies that don't need to access the financing markets or if they do it's not as painful. areas where you can see cyclical growth on the more aggressive

side, cybersecurity and data centers and ai we think there's a continued secular tailwind interesting in small and mid cap, we think somewhere in there is some real good opportunity. we wouldn't buy the indexes in those areas. look at companies that we think are probably great m & a targets. >> you have to be a real bottoms up stock picker when it comes to small and mid caps because of the issues with rates? >> exactly i think you will see real opportunities for great moves in that area of the market. i wouldn't necessarily be buying the market >> let's bring in shannon and jason. good to have you on this friday. did anything change this week? are we good? >> we were on the camp where we were anticipating a pause. i think the market just really

wanted to see three rate cuts rather than two. that step down from four to two was difficult to digest. i feel like the other thing that we need to keep in mind is that while the potential for significantly lower rates would prop up certain parts of the market, particularly cyclical trades and small cap stocks that you were talking about, our view is that we really have been able to be fairly resilient from an economic perspective through this rate hiking cycle if you accept the expectation that we will have above trend growth in 2025, we do think there's probably an offset there from a nominal sales perspective. we can deliver that earnings growth that would justify certainly some of the more depressed multiples in some of those value sectors or small and mid cap stocks even without a significant rate cutting tailwind, to your pound, rates are still coming down lower.

most companies have actually digested that fairly well. we think that we are set up for a good year in the equity mrashth market next year >> jason, you think the rally is intact is it in jeopardy? >> i think the rally is intact i'm concerned. i think shan non alluded to a point, which is going into next year we are expecting double digit earnings growth. one thing that's muted my excitement is what we have seen from -- we have two weeks of negative breadth longer term is positive. what has kept the markets hanging on is the performance. it faltered with all that we have seen this week. we got a bump this morning obviously, pce was benign, which

has lifted the market. as we move forward, we definitely want to see broader participation in the markets going into next year i think the generals would do fine hyperscalers will be okay. i would like to see other areas perhaps. >> what do you take from the fact that what they are suggesting ten days, more stocks are down than up. the mega caps have been driving the truck here over last leg is that going to continue? is that the way it's going to be >> if your expectation is rates will go higher because inflation will be stickier, look at what are the companies that are going to power through an environment where inflation is higher and interest rates are higher and they are not as dependent with regard to financing? the mag 7 has got very grease receive growth rates they have balance sheets

you could see that the market is potentially just hiding in these names like they have in the past you would naturally see money coming out of the 493 because of that i think that's just the natural trade that you would see inflation up, rates go higher. where do i hide in the equity market in companies that are blue chip companies that grow. >> do i need to wait until january 21 or january 20 at 12:01 p.m. to see if tariffs are put on right away to see if there's an advancement of any immigration movement and then make my investment decisions >> i think the question is, i think everybody thought, okay, trump is in, red wave, this stuff is priced into the market. now not so much. we are in a situation where we

might have a government shutdown i don't if he that changed since we have gotten on. i think it's a fairly messy process. i think to shannon's point, there's a fair amount of volatility between now and then, which is why we would be looking to hide in some of the higher quality areas or areas where we are not as depend enter ent on . >> we may have distance between us and the mega cap numbers. but we will get earnings once you make the turn into '25 what pressure will be on those given i hear a lot, well the multiple can't expand anymore. it has to come through earnings growth especially if you think rates are higher rates could pressure the multiple, the market earnings can offset that >> 100%. what we will start with an

earnings is the financials in a couple weeks, which we feel strongly about going forward we do think capital markets activity has bottoms we expect to see double digit returns there going into next year i think that could be obviously a catalyst for going forward i think the other area of the market that we continue to look, which i have talked about before, is software. we have done a lot of cap x, a lot of talk about spend as it relates to ai and ai compute i think as we look forward, we will be looking at use cases how do we turn the fitabilit on a lot is about multiple expansion. i think next absolutely the major theme >> how do you see that

>> we keep getting multiple expansion. the important thing is that in the outside of mega cap tech and the other sectors, you could get both earnings growth and multiple expansion, which would be beneficial for the trade going forward. >> chris, the ideal portfolio right now -- get some water. it's all right i will give you a minute the ideal portfolio -- i will preface by saying, he is a bond guy. i'm a bond guy this is where i lean in. he said, 30% cash, because of the uncertainty you have with higher rates, you once gain have competition. bonds for obvious reasons. 20% u.s. stocks. how does that sound to somebody

like you 30/50/20 >> it seems light to me. i think in our mind, we would be significantly more overweight u.s. domestic, higher quality large cap, small cap i would also throw in there private markets. we see a lot of activity in the private markets. to jason's point, we like financials benefits. >> private equity? >> as well as banks that participate in the ipo and m & a market that kind of cycle should do well in 2025. >> there were times when we had these conversations a couple years ago when the fed was at the peak of the hiking cycle, where you did have more cash than others. for the reason that while you get a great return on it, plus you don't take as much risk. are we in that are we on the doorstep of that

again? >> i watched your show at halftime you were giving one of the guests a hard time with regard to not buying anything. >> not me. me >> i heard it from somebody else the fact of the matter is, if everything is moving down, like we saw in this market, it's tough to sell some of the names to buy other names having cash in the portfolio is always a good idea particularly right now with the fact that to your point, interest rates are in a good place. we wouldn't necessarily be extending duration having short-term cash makes sense. we are not at anywhere near the levels we were two or three years ago. but we do think having a significant amount of cash and kind of core fixed income makes sense. >> you like u.s. stocks of any region in the world? >> yeah. we think outside of the u.s., there's a reason that they trade at a discount. you see from the political situation there, from the growth situation, from demographics, all of those things are pointing that more and more money is

coming into the u.s. if the u.s. is higher for longer, the rest of the economies have to cut rates. that's going to continue to push capital into the u.s if we continue to see this ipo and m and a activity, that will bring more capital in the u.s. we believe in this u.s. exceptionalism. >> what about stocks versus bonds? yields are going to be maybe where they are now if not a little higher. >> i mean, that makes bonds s >> i mean, that makes bonds se attractive whether you talk about investment grade or high yield if you compare what we see from a credit spread perspective in yield, that's the challenge. even if you fair they are strong, we have seen some deterioration in the high yield

market, especially in certain subsectors and industries. the challenge is if you look at equity versus bonds and valuations, valuations seem expensive. on the corporate side they are expensive in the bond market you layer in debt sustainability it's tough right now you can do a balanced portfolio. get nice yields on the bopd nds side there might be an opportunity with the volatility in first half of the year to get spread widening that's where corporate will be more attractive. >> we will leave it there. good weekend, everybody. >> happy holidays. the biggest names moving into the close >> less than 40 minutes left in trading. novo nordisk had lower than

expected we are looking at shares down about 17% at this hour look at rival eli lilly jumping. dexcom also making gains eli lilly up 2% 6% dexcom up 6% news on the ipo front. pippa has that for us. >> venture global, they are an exporter filed to go public. the proposed size and price have not yet been released. the company was looking to raise $3 billion through its ipo they are exporting at their pass they have been exporting since 2022 this comes as we expect to see ray demand in lng exports.

venture dmroebl global has fileo public rebounding retail. the best day in a month heading into a critical holiday shopping weekend. we will break it down, get the setup. the top picks for next year. we are live at the new york ew stock exchange you are "closing bell" on cnbc

. we are back. retail stocks getting a boost. joining me now is matthew boss with his top picks i want to start with the dud, nike we talked many times

i know that there's a reboot here what do you attribute to the price action in that stock wasn't it up and down? >> 2q results were in line with expectation. that created a relief rally. as the call progresses, you heard that this is going to take longer and the divot is going to be deeper. the actions are just beginning in terms of clearing inventory in north america and europe. as well as some of the actions to get back to a reasonable market one full year before nike is prepared to actually be able to vin ven inventory in the market. and you need to scale. that's going to create earnings

that on our numbers are 50% below the street >> what do you think the issue is what has prevented res onating e could you name a current nike commercial big marketing campaign i'm thinking about some of the biggest athletes on earth who are nike athletes. steph curry is still the thing in the nba he is not a nike guy lebron is in november of his career in the nba. serena doesn't play anymore. tiger is in the december of his career is that the problem? >> i think it's larger i think there's two structural changes. nike was a marketing company then it was innovation led, as

they have the ability to spend more than anybody else what changed is to things. ecommerce and the advent and more of the growth from global brands it lowered the barriers to entry. you don't have to be the largest. it's not necessarily you can catch jordan and you have a halo affect it's social influencers. you think about the barriers to entry coming down, in 20 years covering this space, i have never had a time when you hear about new balance, hoka, the outdoor space, the sheer number of competitors it's not just adidas relative to nike like it was in 2014 that's why this is going to be longer and this is going to take more effort to get back on stable footing do i think they can get back absolutely it's more two to three years out, not one to two. that is what the market was potentially wrong on. >> growing an industry is one thing. growing above to justify a

higher multiple, that's the problem. >> that's it on my numbers, stocks trading at 40 times earnings. that's anticipating 400 to 500 points getting back to the nike growth profile that was of old. that was where it traded 27 to 30 times the market is anticipating a turnaround dynamic playing out under new leadership i think culturally, some of the people that they brought in -- every change that elliott laid out are the right changes to make it's that it doesn't happen overnight. he was clear about that. >> when you talk about barriers to entry being easier, you are describing a situation where the goalposts have moved. >> absolutely. >> they don't move back. >> no. the other thing that changed is if you think about the percentage of lifestyle. that creates more volatility to your point, that's a different profile.

nearly 50% of the business is lifestyle. they talk about more people wear a basketball shoe with jeans than on the court. that's a material change from nike of old that was more performance led and could catch the best athletes because they were the largest and the biggest. it's not necessarily the same today. >> yours truly by the way. no foot shots. who is getting it right? >> i think you want global brands that have structurally stuck to their correct dynamics around marketing and flywheel investing. tapestry, led by coach i think ralph lauren took five years in terms of the structural action.

i think lulu is more performance led in terms of this lifestyle that's why i think they went through this dynamic where they didn't have newness. now they are coming back. >> they made the turn? >> absolutely. you have stabilized. in the front half of '25, that's where the newness and sizing and growth back in north america you never lost growth in international. you never had excess inventory. >> you love ralph? >> it's compounding from here. a mid-teens margins structure moving higher on continued average unit retail expansion. what i like is the white space opportunity that's been opened up because luxury pricing are 50% higher off of a larger base. ralph fits into the affordable luxury. >> what's the holiday? >> good. it started out strong. you had the break of the colder weather in november. then you had the value catalyst with black friday. i think the bigger overlying

dynamic here is now that you have a wealth affect the numbers are nearly $60 trillion of wealth creation since 2019 high income consumer, the dollars are there. the iscretionary dollars are there. low income, we are more tepid into next year what's going to happen with tariffs? how will that affect pricing inflation is the biggest headwind. >> shorter spending time period have any impact? thanksgiving was late. >> i think all it did was compressed the lull. i think people came out for black friday i think that weather coming off the september and october was the warmest in 30 years. apparel and footwear did well. the cal endar turned i think especially for destination-type of shops, a

ralph, tapestry on coach side or lulu or abercrombie. it's a global brand. growing double digits top line for four years >> enjoy the conversation. thanks up next, more on the bounceback in stocks as we head into the close why nick colas sees double digit upside sectors he thinks could lead the way.

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we are back. stocks are rallying, partially reversing losses this week joining me now is nick colas welcome back >> thank you >> what's the message here down 20% under 20. >> it's during a mid-cycle rally since the beginning of october 2022 we got signal on wednesday. only happened two times since

october 2022 at the beginning of the rally and in august of five, six and seven. the s&p was up in the month after that we have gotten the buy signal. we are bullish >> that's what i was thinking when you were talking about the spike. i was thinking back to august 5th. we had all those concerns about japan. it went to 60 over whatever it was. you are telling me that whenever it has a massive spike, it's generally a buy. >> it is the only exception -- think back to 2022. several vix spikes those weren't great buy signals because we were in a bear market the point is we are in a bull market the vix spikes are a signal saying fear is overblown and it's a good time to buy. >> buy the dip it's not like we don't have

concerns to think about. if the fed is going to cut less than we originally thought and we are still not sure exactly how many times -- because they tell us, it's likely two next year, that doesn't mean anything that's our baseline to go off of we have policy uncertainty and everything else. there are reasons to be cautious >> absolutely. powell's press conference was a disaster we rted the rate cut was a close call we ended with him saying he couldn't guarantee no rate hikes next year. everything in the middle was the same kind of mishmash. there's uncertainty. at the same time, we have a good economy. a good labor market. growing corporate earnings that's the recipe for why we are bullish. >> where do you lean into? >> financials. a great run this year. the second cheapest group.

tailwinds from lower than expected loan loss reserves. financials are still anticipate an area to lean into >> tech? >> tech, we do like as a group those companies that dominate the top of the s&p should outperform next year as well that's another reason to be bullish. it's also financials it's a broad-based rally >> let me ask you, maybe -- are you saying you are not allowed to name single names because these things stop trading? your answer sort of suggests that you think as a group they are going to go up can you clarify? >> you have it exactly right if you want to play that space, the coups cues are on the way y

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coming up, occidental, we will drill down on what's powering that move that's coming up next.

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we are in the "closing bell" market zone. break down the crucial markets

mike, we close out a volatile week we headed towards the end. >> the fever has broken. you did have the real welling up of volatility. just i think a sense that there was deferred selling in the largest leading stocks that had to happen. we have wipe aid little d a litt away the biggest thing was elevated expectations for next year the sense that was firing in the bullish direction. now you have more of a nuanced picture, which is healthy. you don't want to figure nothing can go wrong so far, okay the indexes are back to normal not a huge buying stampede enough to take the pressure off. >> between now and the -- now and the end of the year, lower volume

what's hanging out there to drive us you have the developments in d.c. we will see if the cr passes and where we go with the government shutdown you think about he wering e ea. >> if we are not clenched up and feeling like the market is under stress because of liquidation, because of something going on with bonds, for example, then you can just sort of allow yourself to coast into the seasonally strong and calm days. i was saying early december, we keep going like this, we will finish way, way out on the limb. over position. >> markets had a great ability to do that to itself then sort -- >> before it really gets out of hand. >> it's been one of the characteristics over the bull -- two-year bull market that's most impressive

pippa, tell us about tal >> an increase of 8.9 million shares purchased for $405 million across tuesday, wednesday and thursday coinciding with a downturn in the stock. following this buying spree, berkshire has a stake above 28% according to the files, worth $12.5 billion. making it the sixth biggest equity holding buffett has ruled out a full takeover berkshire's interest is not enough to push it into the green for the year still dropping 21% for 2024. oil prices have gone nowhere scott, the stock super 4% today. >> thank you quick to you, mike you know berkshire and warren buffett. while they have been liquidating or pairing down everywhere else --

>> there's a particular math that's involved with the occidental berkshire holds warrants to buy it in the high 50s the math pencils out that every time the stock -- a business discount to that level, it makes sense to buy it in the open market clearly, buffett has had great things to say about the management even though he doesn't want to buy 100%, it is always going to buy when he feels it's below intrinsic value. >> carnival, what's happening? >> better than expected results. the ceo joined us earlier today. he talked about how it's been able to accelerate onboard spending every kward quarter sees net income jumping 20% from this year. helping at built to continue to raise prices carnival is investing in new

experiences like celebration key, a new private island owned by the cruise operator that is fuelling interest from returning and new cruise travellers. that was a similar message from norwegian's ceo. all the major cruise operators posting gains, led by royal caribbean up over 75%. carnival up 44% this year. >> thank you talked about travel-related stocks today look at the year to date return on united, which is 130 something percent. delta has had a great year a buyer of a stock in that space. trip advisor, which has not. not everything participated in the healthy consumer wants to participate. >> trip advisor has been considered the number two or three in that particular niche i think it says the services economy is where the heat it it remains the case. goods-based inflation is taking

a seat to services-based also that's where the emphasis of spending has been that all kind of is to the good. if there's one thing i'm looking at to say when might this not be a short-term all clear, not a huge rally in bonds. -year- we will see if there's a re-think make accommodation with the 4.5% tenure there's also the dollar has backed off a bit those are the two areas that were threatening to get too hot for comfort for the equity market it is the thing that's going to restrain the real economy on some level that's not the worst thing in the world if you think that's what's necessary for inflation that's why we have this delicate tradeoff between fed palsy, rates, anticipated inflation and economic growth. the stock market is trying to

dance around those things. >> we as investors are especially data dependent knowing that a little bit unknown is baked into the cake >> no jobs report until january 10th >> good point. thank you so much for that we will go al green to finish this week. there's the bell >> that bell marks end of regulation and "closing bell" for the new york stock exchange. yxx tech and stocks jumped pulling back as data and fed commentary easing concerns about inflation. well off the highs score card on wall street. welcome to "overtime." >> a big show coming your way. commerce secretary gina raimondo joins us with a warning about a possible government shutdown and any c.h.i.p.s act gran