performance of semis today. if you're someone looking for the indices to go higher semis will do it. such a ride for megacap tech stocks since thanksgiving and if you look also since we had that august 5th bottom, the move across the space, megacap tech has been extraordinary. >> it has. home builders struggling with semis. thank you for watching "power lunch." thanks to tim for an extremely fun hour. "closing bell" starts right now. 77. thanks so much. i'm scott wapner. this make or break begins with the rally. we'll ask our experts the question over the final stretch. in the meantime your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. an uneven day for stocks. the market still focused on the path for interest rates. they are a touch higher today, thus we're mixed. nasdaq leading, nvidia, alphabet, tesla, they're green

today. a pretty even split for the sector. it does take us to our talk of the tape. is there less reason to be bullish this market. let's ask chris harvey, head of equity strategy at wells fargo securities back at post nine. good to see you. >> go ahead to see you. >> how would you answer that question, less reason to be bullish? >> in the short-term you're less bullish. the fed didn't cancel christmas but did cancel the santa rally. you still have the same things in place. a stronger economy, good fundamentals, the fed is going to ease next year. m&a activity will start to come up. we're having a loser regulatory environment. it's all still there. it's just in the short-term you have a little bit of volatility and that happens. >> let's take this piece by piece. the santa claus rally is supposed to start tomorrow and go into the first few days of the year. you're suggesting you don't think we'll get it. >> our price target is 5800. we're slightly above that. i think that's about right, 58. >> 58. >> 58. i'm sorry. >> that's fine. making sure i heard you right.

>> yep. so why would you rally the market right here right now? one of the things you have is you have refunding or auctions, right, that are pushing up yields, that's going to weigh on equities. you have the fed say what they said. and a lot of hedge funds have gone home for the holidays. there's not much reason to get excited. that's fine for next year because next year maybe we start, you know, with a pretty good pop out of the gate. >> you think the fed is a big risk next year? >> i don't think it's a big risk. i think it surprised equity people. i think people were a little bit too aggressive, a little bit too bullish, but i think the fed will continue to cut rates at a moderate pace. they're going to normalize rates which is what they're saying and that's fine. as long as we have the fed easing, they said they're going to do, that's a good thing. the backdrop is pretty supportive. the macro pretty supportive. you have fundamentals that are still improving. valuation is high, but you're paying for growth and getting double-digit or we think you're going to get double-digit growth

next year. >> it's funny the bond market essentially pulled the fed to it. >> yeah. >> the stock market may have been a little over its skis, but the bond market wasn't because interest rates had moved up substantially from the cut in september to now. >> scott, that's a great point, right. because this is not our first rodeo. one of the things we keep saying to ourselves what is the fed watching? it does appear to be that the fed is watching the market, then the market does influence the fed because we had a 50 basis points cut in september. what's the difference between now and then? well, they were at 150 basis points lower than where fed funds were. where are fed funds in two years? they're almost on top of each other at this point in time. i think the fed really does pay attention to the market or the bond market per se and that does have a pretty good influence on it. >> i mean, i remember when i was sitting at jeffrey dunlap's office doing that fed meeting in september live in l.a. and they do a super cut and rates go up.

oh, that's an interesting move. maybe something to keep an eye on. >> yep. >> and here we are where we are. now people are making a whole bunch of predictions for the new year. there were some out today from apollo who said of this conversation we're having, 40% chance inflation picks up, 40% chance the fed raises rates, 40% chance the 10-year goes above five. say we don't think they're going to hike. if the 10-year goes to above 5 do we have a problem in the stock market? >> we will have a problem for a short period of time. it depends how it gets there. short move higher similar to the summer of '223 the market will trade off but then i think it will get back on its horse and move higher. if he's right -- and i don't think he's right -- if inflation does go higher then yes, we have a little bit of a problem. if that helps earnings, okay, some of the stocks will do better. some of the stocks will do worse. one of the things you're seeing over the last couple weeks you're more levered companies are having a difficult time. small cap names, more levered

companies. those are the ones that aren't bouncing today. your growth ones are bouncing and those are the ones that will perform better in that environment. >> you are looking for a more balanced market. >> we are. >> suggesting a broadening that's right. >> does more inflation, higher rates, fewer cuts in part upset that story? as we're witnessing now, you introduce uncertainty of any kind into the market. it doesn't necessarily tank the market. it just sends people parading to the mega caps. >> yeah. so our reason for being more balanced is really predicated on regulation beginning to ease. if regulation begins to ease, that's a big positive for costs. that's a big positive for business. that's a big positive for the economy. the economy does better, the average stock will do better. these other reasons, will there be influential, yes, but at the end of the day it's predicated on a change in regulation. >> okay. i got you. so you've got deregulation, you have good fundamentals. >> right. >> as the backdrop and then you

have robust earnings at least enough to carry the market even if you don't get multiple expansion? >> that's right. you don't need -- we're not predicting multiple expansion. what we're saying is we're going to get double-digit growth in eps, the market will go up with growth and that's what you should expect next year. that's a pretty rationale, pretty reasonable expectation. multiple expansion that's a tough one. >> your thoughts about the next leg of the ai trade? >> right. >> and how you're trying to process what that might look like. >> right. >> what is it? >> so there's a lot of -- if you look at some of the things that meta is doing, they're building some massive clusters, bigger than a lot of what you're seeing out in the marketplace. if that causes a step-wise function -- it will cause a step-wise function in processing, but a step-wise function in the llms we're going to have an arms race on our hands. the belief is that 300 -- not 300 -- 30,000, 50,000 gpus

clustered together is topping the end. gronk and some of the others pushing the envelope at 10,000 and if it works and does cause a step-wise function, suddenly people are going to start throwing more and more money at this. now we're going to start throwing more and more capacity at the situation and that's going to be an arms race. >> what do you see as the biggest risks to your story? >> biggest risk to our story, what we worry about is when growth starts to accelerate, that people start reflecting that in their views. right now the average economist is saying that gdp for next year is 2%. when we get to 2 -- i think we'll get to 2.5, when people start reflecting that in their model then we can start talking about some downside and some sustained downside. >> you mean people get too bullish? >> well, they start recognizing that the economy is as strong as we think it's going to be, right. now it's in the marketplace. now we have to look forward and probably in the second half is

when we start to worry about the economy slowing down. right now it's still accelerating. people are still thinking it's at 2%. it's much higher than that. once we get to that level, now we've reset everything and we have to start worrying about -- and what you would expect at that point in time -- is equity prices going higher, risk product being well bid. >> euphoria getting out of control. animal spirits away from us. >> exactly. and then you start to say, okay, now i need to be a little bit more defensive and start taking profits. but really not until then. are there other things that are going to cause volatility, whether it's the fed, whether it's tariffs something from the administration, sure. but what we really worry about is that resetting of expectations. >> for the meantime we may be a little bit volatile and a little bit messy for a little bit but then we sort of realize all that's coming from d.c. tax cuts, deregulation, stronger economic growth, decent enough

earnings, we're good. >> we're in a pretty good spot and price it as we're in a good spot. i don't think people really understand or appreciate what the regulatory environment is going to look like in six months. >> tell that to the banks. the stocks have been ripping. >> right. >> for a reason. >> they have been ring and pulled back a little bit, but i do think the banks, which is one of our top ideas for next year they're going to have eps growth and we'll see upward eps revisions and upward multiple revisions. that's something we haven't seen in years. >> private equity names rallying for the last few months on the expectations of more deals. >> more deals. merger has been a difficult, merger probably bounces back next year. with more deals you have more ipos, with more ipos more trading the capital market business improves, and it builds upon itself. >> that's why the exchange stocks have been doing well too. >> exactly. >> in anticipation of all that. broaden the conversation and bring in bryn talkington and malcolm of capital planning group great to have both of you with us.

bryn, you heard the view of mr. harvey. do you agree? >> i agree with a lot of what he has to say. tooing this deregulation, you have to think about this could be this multiplier effect to so many parts of the economy because we do have this forward branch of government these federal agencies that take from congress the laws that they pass and then interpret them and i think there's so many industries that have been laden with bureaucracy, i think that can really help animal spirits that are already in existence but that deregulation to me is the multiplier in the economy but if we get wins there, that's going to be a really strong i'll say tailwind to potential u.s. gdp. it feels like, you know, going into at least the first six or seven months of the year, if the administration can get wins and get some wins behind it, it will benefit equal weight, i think it's going to benefit energy, materials, which have suffered this year. i'm thinking you can get a rally that's -- where the market --

the market cap stocks go higher but the other stocks start to participate in a more meaningful way which they haven't done this year. >> malcolm, tariffs and trade wars, i understand that those are potential negatives, but, you know, bryn's suggestion here is that there's going to be enough good to offset whatever bad if you characterize that as bad, i'm thinking of in terms of how the market would take those. is that true? is that what you believe? >> yeah. one place i hear overlap at least between bryn and chris that i also echo is probably deregulation when it comes to financials, right. so when we talk about all the other industries that have been late laden with bureaucracy, banking probably lit the hardest and even if a lot of the deregulation that we're excited about, the potential of and maybe even some of the tariffs that we see as being unnecessarily harsh back to the u.s., do actually go into effect

and have some of the sara eisent the markets and investors are too fixated on tariffs and anything negative like that. you can get 15 to 20% next year return in the s&p if not even more if a lot of the other things, more important things, like deregulation, like tax cuts, like better economic growth, like stronger earnings actually fall into place and the tariff thing we're not sure.

we can make an educated assumption there will be some, but maybe not to the degree and the scope and breadth that has been talked about. >> i think that's all fair. right. i think part of what we're doing is speculating on speculation. right. the thing that i kind of come home to is that it does appear that with our allies, you're really using tariffs or the incoming administration is using it as something to bring people to the table. i do tnk that tariffs between u.s. and china will happen, right, but at the end of the day, if you look at the u.s. economy, the u.s. economy is not driven -- it's not an export driven economy. it's a service driven economy. the consumer is still okay. you're right, if we're going to have a lot of regulation environment, start talking about tariffs, if we do shrink the government, these are all really good things that will supersede or overpower any sort of tariff issue. we don't know when tariffs will come in and to the degree that they will come in.

doesn't look like they're going to be very aggressive. >> sounds like you agree? >> yeah. i mean absolutely. i think that when you listen to trump and all of this other officials talk about tariffs there's another side to that. with mexico it's getting the drugs out and immigration. this is more of a stick. i think once again the china tariffs that trump, you know, instilled back in his first presidency, biden kept that through and so i think that -- i think i agree with chris there's speculation on the speculation. deregulation and having this growing economy where more people are included is really going to be the narrative. that puts a positive tailwind to the economy writ large next year. >> malcolm, look at what's worked lately, the nasdaq. 30% year for the nasdaq. over the last month the only of the majors that is higher up near 4%. everything else is red over the last month. just shows you where the money

has been going. the problems, some say, is those stocks aren't cheap and that their earnings growth just can't sustain at current levels even with the multiple having expanded by the magnitude that it has. so how do i justify that trade continuing to work to the degree that it has? >> well, i will see your concern there and i'll raise you one. i agree with everything you said that is a concern going into 2025, but i also think that as we look at the slate of ipos that we all are agreeing or likely to come in 2025 and probably pushing into 2026, in order for investors both on the retail side and as institutional investors to participate in that, they've got to raise cash from somewhere. it's more likely to be the more dominant mag seven names that are widely owned by just about everybody at this point. those names are going to have to be sold off in order for those investors to raise cash to participate in the ipos in a meaningful way.

even if earnings growth continues at the rate that it has, and we do continue to see positive revenues for a lot of these larger tech names, iens would -- i wouldn't be surprised to see the share prices still suffer as investors are trying to come up with the cash to get into the blockbuster ipos. >> i was asking malcolm that question, my peripheral vision caught harvey like i'm not sure i agree on that. are you -- do you have any of those concerns about elevated multiples, especially at the highest end of the cap space in the market? >> there are elevated multiples no doubt about it, but what we're observing and seeing is momentum. we've talked about momentum all year long, right. what you're seeing is the effects of momentum. people have made a lot of money buying strength and avoiding weakness. that continues to work. and so what you should expect is people to continue to do that. they're going to keep pushing their chips in. they're going to keep playing momentum until it stops working.

that's what you're seeing or i think that's exactly what you're seeing with the nasdaq and some of the other higher prices. would i recommend that? i think momentum will continue to work, but we want to start being a little bit more conservative on our valuationss >> one of the predictions from torsten over at apollo, i read a list from earlier, is that nvidia disappoints. 90% probability he puts that nvidia will disappoint.continue

earnings next year. now, where our expectations in q2 and q3, i don't know, do those come down? they could. nvidia has had two banner back-to-back years, it's digesting and consolidating. as the hyper scalers are going to spend $50 billion this year in capex that's going to be strong. i think nvidia and the market saying broadcom, are really the two semi names you still want to own going into 2025. >> let's see, malcolm, you don't think that these hyper scalar names are going to be as dominant next year as they were this. i think we've laid out a number of scenarios which potentially would question that. >> well, to bryn's point i think the company and the stock are two completely separate things, right. nvidia is sold out well into the future by ten years or what have you. any chip they can make, there is a willing buyer on the other side of it, and just about at

any price nvidia decides they want you to pay for it. the difference is the expectations by wall street now. the expectations by investors are that companies are going to continue to beat and raise and beat and raise and i think that we've already seen a growing skepticism, dare i say, from nvidia shareholders which is part of the reason that the stock has been trading sideways for a little bit now to bryn's point. i think that in tech specifically, megacap tech in next year going forward, i think that investors' expectations are just weighing so heavily on these names that any earnings growth that we're seeing them be able to show at these quarterly reports are not going to be meaningful enough because investors are going to be looking over on the other side of the fence at other companies that are still delivering double-digit growth [ inaudible ] quarter by quarter. >> last question, maybe i will get a bryn reaction and understand why in a minute, bitcoin. 92,600. your -- one of your predictions

is that coinbase is going to be added to the s&p in the first quarter of 2025. >> what we're seeing is the institutionalization of crypto currencies. the acceptance of it, right. and as a result, we think you're going to start to see that reflected in the broader market. the broader market being the s&p 500. wherever we look, you are seeing crypto currencies being more accepted and institutionalized in etfs or people's personal portfolios. we always say if you're less than four years old you speculate on crypto currency. if you're more than 40 it's gold. right. that number looks like it's starting to move up as well. but to answer your question, it's really just because we're seeing the acceptance of it and the broadening out of it and at some point we'll see it in the s&p 500 and we think in the first half of next year. >> bryn, is bitcoin and crypto just getting started here? >> well, it's selling off a little bit right now, but i think if you look out --

>> in the bigger picture. >> yeah, yeah. if you look out five and ten years, i think the -- bitcoin could be much higher. i do think, though, that people forget how volatile this asset -- this bitcoin could easily go to 65,000 before it goes to 150. i think that i've talked about this, the leverage underneath the crypto currency gets quite large and you need that to consistently wash out. i think that will remain the narrative. it's a highly volatile asset class, but longer term it looks like it's going to continue to go higher. >> we will leave it there. thank you. bryn and malcolm see you soon. chris, thanks for coming by. let's send it to pippa stevens for the biggest names moving into the close. >> shares of microstrategy falling 7% today on the first day of its inclusion in the nasdaq 100. the bitcoin proxy announced it bought more than 5,000 bitcoin at $106,000 each funded through a stock sale. bitcoin traded around $93,000 this afternoon.

nordstrom in the red after it agreed to a $6.25 billion buyout from the founding nordstrom family and a mexican retailer. shareholders will receive 24 and 25 in cash for each share and the deal expected to close in the first half of 2025. walmart is the biggest laggard on the dow after the consumer financial protection bureau sued the retail giant over its payment of delivery drivers. alleging that walmart and scheduling platform branch messenger forced delivery drivers into costly deposit accounts to receive payment. walmart called the lawsuit rushed and riddled with factual errors. in a statement to cnbc. those shares down 2%. >> thank you. we are just getting started. up next the high net worth playbook from one of the chief financial strategists. mary lago shares her strategy for what sectors you need to be in this market and where she finds the best alternatives.

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welcome back. stocks picks to start this short week. our next guest manages money for high net worth clients. mary lago. welcome back. nice to see you. >> thank you so much for having me. >> you're pretty constructive on the markets at tis time? >> we are. we recognize valuations are stretched, but we remain constructive on domestic large caps. looking at 25 times forward earnings, we know they can look expensive, but if we look over the last couple years the earnings and more so the stock prices have rewarded investors that have stayed the course. >> i'm referring to large cap equities in general but mega caps have rewarded more so and

we expect if we look forward to earnings for 2025 megacap earnings are expected to grow over 20% next year. broader market at 15%. so we've got some stronger earnings projections ahead and we're still leaning into that. >> where are you looking to get positive where others are missing? >> why do you think we're more positive? >> where? i'm sorry, where within the market are you looking to get more positive where others may be missing, things that didn't perform that well, healthy skepticism around sectors? >> yeah. i would say there's some things we're watching. we remain fairly positive in technology. we think technology is really at the forefront of these changes right now reshaping industry. while there's fear in the space we've heard some of the commentary today we remain positive in the tech space certainly industrials benefitting from some of the carry overeffect and data centers and other points. we remain positive there.

certainly has been tough and we're a little bit underweight in real estate but looking to be more constructive as we're seeing some clearing prices in that space. >> no appetite to invest in international stocks, just stay u.s. generally speaking? >> we have remained underweight international and there's pressure there, right. they look very inexpensive from a p/e ratio, but cheap isn't a catalyst. we're looking for some indication that earnings are going to improve internationally before we want to step up that. we're even more underweight emerging markets. >> why overweight consumer staples which i see in the notes is one of your calls here? >> yeah. it's really a little bit of a hedge if you will. we recognize we're overweight some of the more cyclical, higher beta sectors such as the tech and industrials and so in a way, it's not our base case, but ta is a little bit of a hedge against any weakness we could see. >> you have a bit of a contrarian take on hot areas of the market.

number one, you've trimmed your al tern intotive exposure. i haven't heard anybody come on saying i've trimmed my exposure. i'm leaning into alternative exposure. why are you trimming here. >> part of the reason we're trimming is to make way for fixed income. bonds have earned their way back into portfolios. we've seen the yield at 5%. we really added to alternatives over the last five years as a placeholder for bonds in the sense that interest rates are low and they were going to be rising and didn't want to get hit width the headwind on our fixed income side. we used alternatives in the form of real estate, some private credit, some real assets to try to hedge some of that risk in fixed income and now is fixed income yields are looking better we needed a source of funds to add back to normalize or stabilize our more normal allocation towards bonds. >> i haven't had anybody in the same light speaking of alternaive its suggest that

private credit isn't a good place to be. and i haven't had anybody suggest that private credit is nearing an end in any way. in fact, they suggest continually that we're only in the early innings, but that's an area that you're likely to trim as well. you think there are too many dollars there? >> yeah. that's exactly our concern. we're seeing a tremendous amount of inflow into that space and we recognize from the broader perspective, right, banks want to strengthen their balance sheet, being more conservative, a need for credit, private credit is filling that gap, but we've seen so many dollars rushing into that space that we think that that could force compromises in terms of quality and so we -- we -- it's not that we think there's an imminent problem in that space but illiquidity constraints and we would rather be out a little early than late. >> what kind of returns do you think we're going to get next year out of the stock market broadly? >> yeah. probably looking at -- if we look at broad earnings 15 times, if we stay the same we have 15%

earnings but that's not what we expect. we expect that we've already been paid for a lot of the profitability that -- or the earnings that companies are going to show next year and our expectations are more for 5 to 10% growth on the s&p. >> wow. so reasonably muted returns, not that 10% is anything to sneeze at. it certainly feels like it would be a disappointment relative to the last couple years we've had. >> it does coming off of that. >> yeah. 5% sounds a little like it would be a disappointment. it's relative to expectations of stronger economic growth, right. >> and we also recognize that there's policy risk going into next year as well, so we believe that companies will continue to perform, they're going to meet those earnings expectation, but that there's likely going to be some softening around price to earnings ratios and we don't expect that earnings expansion next year which has fed a lot of

the last couple years of returns in the s&p. >> mary, we'll talk to you soon. good to welcome you to our program. mary lago joining us. betting on the bull case i's strategist is back and why he sees stocks bouncing back from last week's volatility is next.

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welcome back. still time for an end of year rally in stocks. trading strategy stewart kaiser is back at post nine.

you think -- are we still going to have a santa claus rally which is supposed to start tomorrow. >> i think we're kind of set up for that at this point. you had a positioning destruction last week which helped rebase things a bit. if you take the fed at face value, flattening, inflation still on a downtrend, getting insurance cuts in there net positive for equities. >> it still is. we're not upset too much by what powell said last week or the fact that we did have a hawkish cut and felt like decidedly so. >> yeah. not too upset. what happened there is the fed kind of confirmed what was a bullish growth outlook. they sprinkled in additional inflation risk and that risk is what you traded last week that worked against what was very long positioning. we think that position dynamic has worked itself out. we're back to the situation if we get a payrolls report equities will respond well. >> if we have some kind of upset let's just say between now and

the end of the year and then into the early part of '25, you would be a buyer. that's what this sounds like. >> a buyer with the contingency the employment report is an important event. if you got a couple percent pullback you are a buyer of the dip and then kind of react to the data as it comes in. >> when you say, you know, that data point is critical i mean how are you gaming that out? what makes it so critically important? >> i think what makes it important is the fed is telling you we think the unemployment rate will stabilize around these levels and able to reduce the number of cuts we're going to do next year. if you get an upside surprise in that data that's equity negative full stop because your growth data is weakening and pushed the fed to do more cuts later in the year and plays into a key part of their economic projection. >> i mean that would introduce more risk of being forced to do more cuts, potentially, at a time we're thinking we may get reinflation from some of the policies of d.c. and the new

administration. >> i agree. i think there's a case to be made in the first half of next year the fed could be in an uncomfortable spot where you have unemployment rate rising, government efficiency trying to stop federal hiring a big part of the jobs growth and then tariffs which push inflation a little bit higher. there is a scenario there where the fed gets caught without a doubt. >> what does the market look like next year? we're ending in a place that's made people a little bit uncomfortable, right, back top heavy. how does next year look? >> i think risk-reward is tough going into next year in the sense you have a high eps growth forecast. to your point any bad news is going to kind of not be welcomed but actually punish severely. that said, if the unemployment rate flattens out and you generate, equities should be up a modest number. let's call it earnings growth is mid teens. you're probably looking for something in the 10 to 15% range. worse case you have something that looks like 2018 where you kind of had underlying decent

data but a couple really big pull backs because of the risk environment you were living in. >> what is the makeup of that look like? i mean, if rates let's say remain elevated you get fewer cuts, maybe partly on the jobs report, the broadening story is built on strong economy and rates coming down, anything that upsets that throws all that out of whack. >> yeah i agree 100%. if you believe we're going back to the higher for longer narrative that was the first half of 2024. what did well? your large cap and growth and safer stocks. what started to cause the rotation to your point during the summer we actually got a broadening out of eps growth. the 493 generated positive eps and we got a nice rally in broadening out. next year the earnings are set up for broadening. the question do we realize that. that's the ultimate test for next year do we get the broadening out we started in 3q. >> would that be the way you would invest in the market?

you would take a little bit off of the idea that mega caps are going to have this out performance yet again and then play for the broadening that we're debating here? >> yeah. to me your core position should still be in the higher for longer situation because that's what the fed is telling you is going to happen and i think that needs to be your base case. i still think you have discretionary telecom services in tech as a core position and then yeah do you want to sprinkle around broadening yes. the trouble with that trade i think you allowed uded to it, i get weak economic news that broadens out. your core position is call it large cap growth as a core position and then kind of sprinkling on risk, you know, some risk in that broadening story, but i think you need to be careful with that risk in my opinion. >> okay. we'll leave it there. thank you. >> thank you. >> as we have all three of the major averages are green. we are tracking the biggest movers into the close today and pippa stevens is standing by

with that. tell us what you see. >> two automakers driving towards a merger. the names to watch coming up next.

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the company would be the third largest automaker by sales. the companies needed greater scale to compete in the development of new technologies and electric vehicles and intelligent driving. meantime xerox on pace for its best day since january after announcing acquisition of lexmark international for $1.5 billion. xerox's revenue has fallen for five straight quarters and the electionmark deal will provide necessary scale to better compete. and eli lilly shares on the rise after the fda approved its weight loss drug zepbound to treat sleep apnea in adults with obesity. the approval could pave the way for zepbound to be widely covered by insurance plans. resmed and inspire both falling on the news. scott? >> thank you. pippa stevens. still ahead chips and dip. the semis underperforming the past few months. is there more pain ahead or could a rebound be in the cards. we are back with the bell right after this.

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from morgan stanley. we're now in the closing bell market zone. mike santoli is here to break down day and seema moody on the pivotal year ahead for chip makers and apple hitting a record high. steve will join us with that. mike, i turn to you and we have a pretty decent end of day moving move here otherwise a sort ho-hum day. >> market breadth is still not impressive but better than it was at the start of the session. obviously, you have that bounce in semi, but aside from that, other year-to-date winners that are just getting up into the end of the year.a

calm, low key, end of the year that's what we're in for. we had the feevor break middle of last week, felt like we did clean up positioning. the thing i'm watching is treasury yields. not a lot of give there. the 10-year back at pushing 4.6 again. this could be a matter of look, selling losers, bonds were losers. maybe it's getting exaggerated. the yields are at levels where it should attract buyers. they look see that that happens. >> i mean you've got a pick up in the sectors today. staples and materials are still in the red. but tech is leading, com services no big surprise. we debate whether this broadening is going to work in of '25. >> i think it's an active debate and no way to settle it that easily. yields have a lot to say about that. the cyclical part to this market

has not been able to absorb that move in yields. as it's coming at a time when it's off to the races. i think we had a collision of really excited economic expectations for next year. kind of encountering not so great or just okay current data and the question of whether the fed is going to start to restrain its cutting path it is really kind of fatal to the bull case, but it's a reason. >> yeah. good stuff. mike, thank you. we'll see you coming up soon. seema, tell us about the chips. >> yeah. strong day for semis. just take a look at it started d change and now trading at around $232. with that said, it's still underperforming software stocks in the second half of the year. bank of america analyst says so that could change chip stocks in early 2025 and lists it as one

of the wild cards going into next year in addition to tariffs and new restrictions on china. let's compare price to earnings ratio for software versus chips. of 31 times forward earnings, getting closer to nvidia and broadcom, and then we're watching the government any appointment there, president-elect trump appointing a former a former an advisory role seen as supportive of ai and we'll see how that plays out for companies like intel which is expected to make progress on its arizona plan and taiwan semi expected to ramp volumes of its ai chips in mid 2025.you've been watching over the last week these incredible moves in broadcom, you know, as that stock really, really picks up, right. it was up by 40% in three days, and here is a look at it again, you were talking about it, it's up another 5.it's not just nvid

here. this stock is considered the second best by some analysts as a way to play the ai boom. >> yeah. and there's companies like amd that tried have broadcom saying can't do it alone and we're going to partner with the hyper scalers like an apple, openai, and microsoft and amazon, we'll help them develop their in-house clips and that strategy seems to be paying off, the that's playi their guidance and why more investors are getting more bullish on this name going forward. >> all right. thank you. that's seema moody. let's pivot to apple. steve kovach, hitting another new high, getting closer to $4 trillion in market cap, was like 3.8 going to hit it by the end of the year, but i fell like i come on about every day now this month saying there's a new intraday high for apple even

though there's not a ton of news driving apple stock. we fri dan ives on iphone sales getting a lift from artificial intelligence, but we won't know how well that thesis is playing out until next year when we get apple's report for the december earnings wrapping up here in a few weeks and then this report from yesterday morning, a facia recognition doorbell in the works over at apple. by the way that's not the only smart home gismo going on over there. international securities said in the fall apple is working on a connected security camera for the home.serious apple is about those products but more important there, is apple is expected a new push into the smart home as soon as this spring. apple has been playing in that space almost six years now. bloomberg reporting apple is expected to launch a smart home appliances that could come

probably in march or so. a new ipad you stick to your wall and has limited functionality for controlling smart home appliances in your home. still need the iphone business cranking at the cheaper model o iphone in 2025 as well. >> you just underscored the biggest issue we'll be watching for next year, upgrade cycle. first and foremost. >> that's exactly it and whether or not this thesis intelligence now is pretty much launched at least most of the features i've been talking about, the chatgpt integration that came out just a couple weeks ago, whether or not that really is driving iphone upgrades. we know -- i will quarter it's pretty lackluster the estimates they're showing and not returning to the growth that apple is known for with the iphone business. services is doing super well, though, growing at double-digit percentage points for the last several quarters there. >> yeah.

steve, moves in the markets today. bond yields higher. 10-year near 460. it's at 458. that's not stock the late day pick-up as we look at the bigger movers beyond the apples of the world. it is nvidia having a good day. stocks as well. even a pick up in names. scott. that is the end of regulation third street school ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. the mission doing the honors at the nasdaq. stocks closing a session highs with solid gains for the nasdaq and a decent bumper the s&p as chip stocks get the boost. that is the scorecard on wall street. but the action is just getting started. welcome to closing bell over time. i picker with mike santilli. >> coming up,