about check fraud scams around the holidays and urging consumers to practice safe checks. it's tuesday, december 24th, checks. tuesday, december 24th. yup, also known as christmas eve. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> got some questions. >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernan. merry christmas, happy hanukkah. it's all happening. >> that tie, it's festive. not festivus but -- >> this is what i was discussing yesterday. i almost wore -- so i have a

shirt, the whole shirt is like the tie. >> that might be too much. >> it's a little much. you have to wear a blazer with it to keep the, you know -- >> there's no doubt, this would be the only day i think you could wear that. >> you know, i can only advertise this tie a couple of times every couple years. i can't even -- the last time i wore this on the air was two, three years ago. >> i was glad when you walked in with that. glad to see it. >> feeling the spirit. >> sometimes i feel too predictable when you go with total red, but what am i going to do? >> i have another tie for you for next year. >> like that? >> i got something in this category. >> just keep it. >> you sure? i actually brought it with me. i'll show it to you. you'll like it, it's a burbury tie. >> it is? >> now it's fancy. >> a label? i'll take it. >> look at u.s. equity futures on this christmas eve. let's show you where we are right now. you're looking at --

>> red and green. >> red and green. dow off three points. the nasdaq higher power, 33 points. s&p 500 up five points. this after the dow rose 67 points yesterday. s&p was up three-quarters of 1%. better if it was 3%. the nasdaq was up 1%. it was lifted, in part, by a 6% gain in shares of broadcom. this after analysts at uvs raised, citing the revenue growth. the stock up 40% for the month. for the month of december. take a look at treasury yields right now. you're looking right now at the ten-year note at 4.597. call it 4.6. the two-year at 4.343. 4.43 is not bad. >> it's not. >> markets close early for the holiday. 1:00 p.m. eastern for the stock

market. bond market at 2:00 p.m. not doing bitcoin today? we just going to -- maybe? >> it's 93. >> 93,000 bucks? >> 93 or 94. i was looking at the market for apple. 3.858. almost 4 trillion. it'll be the first company to hit 4 trillion. i don't want to be a grinch. when did buffett sell all that apple? >> goodness, he started selling -- >> he's missed. he was late getting in and, would you say, early getting out? he still has a lot left, but there's -- we're talking 50 billion that he probably left -- >> on the table. >> on the table, don't you think? >> he always about -- >> can't be top and bottom, no one is expecting that.

who knows? maybe it's overdone. >> it's not what you bought or made a mistake on. it's the sin of what you -- >> shouldn't have sold it. probably should have bought more. >> unless he rotated into broadcom. >> that might be a little better. nippon steel, the deal to buy u.s. steel is in president biden's hands. saying that makes me nervous. is he still -- he's commuting, like, rapists and murderers, their sentences. the committee on foreign investment in the united states sent its long-awaited report to the white house. committee was unable to come to a consensus on whether to reject or accept the deal. president biden has 15 days to make a decision on whether to block it. reports say they outlined the pros and cons of approving the deal and described the company's mitigation plan to address concerns over national security. this is one of the few bipartisan -- and like so many

bipartisan things, probably wrong. when they finally do decide they agree on something, typically, they're agreeing on something that's not correct. >> can we take a pause? i didn't get to talk about your tie. >> my tie. this is a -- >> who are you wearing? >> i really never thought you'd say that. this is a feragama. >> it's a festive tie. i noticed it. >> i looked to see. it's not anything. >> not anything? >> no. >> it's not. >> no, it's not. >> doesn't have any -- >> dancing bears. >> bulls dancing or the bears dancing right now? >> yesterday, we had the bears dancing. grateful dead. >> that is true, too. the consumer financial protection bureau filed a complaint against walmart and work scheduling platform branch messenger, i should say. since 2021, walmart has used

branch accounts to pay more than 1 million drivers as part of its spark driver program. that's walmart's platform for the gig economy workers that work for them, doing that last-mile delivery stuff. it says the company allegedly forced delivery drivers to use a poorly managed and costly deposit accounts to get paid. the workers faced numerous delays and fees in some cases if they needed to transfer the money into a different account. cfpb saying companies cannot force workers into getting paid through accounts that drain their earnings with junk fees. in a statement, walmart says cfpb's rushed lawsuit is riddled with factual errors, contains exaggerations and misstatements of settled law. it says they never allowed walmart a fair opportunity to present its case. a branch messenger says it disagrees with the case and accuses the agency of overreach. we'll see where the case goes

under the trump administration. >> or if there is an agency left. separately, the cfpb has filed a suit against rocket homes. yup, that's a division of rocket companies. it alleges the real estate company provides incentives to brokers and agents to steer homebuyers to its parent company's lending wing, which probably not surprising, rocket mortgage. the client says the company pressures brokers and agents not to share information about products not offered by rocket mortgage, including the availability of down payment assistant programs. rocket homes called the cfpb's allegations false and it disports reality. meantime, the federal reserve looking to improve its process for stress testing the banks' abilities to withstand a recession. it's seeking public comment now on planned changes and will start that early in the new year, under the revised system. it models a determined

hypothetical bank losses and the stress scenarios would be open to public comment. before, it was a single year snapshot. results would be averaged over two years to reduce the year to year changes in capital requirements that the banks face. is that complicated icated enou. they're letting me read this one. just reading it straight. >> i'll comment not straight, how about that? >> you will? i'll have to argue with you about how you comment. >> okay. >> i don't want to argue. >> let's see how it goes. let's see how it goes. >> we'll see. the incoming chair of the s.e.c. is sending a message to bob iger, the disney ceo. brendan carr is a trump-appointed commissioner. he'll be chairman next month. he begins by saying, news flash, americans no longer trust the national news media to fully report -- or to accurately report, fairly report.

he accuses abc's conduct of contributing to the erosion of public trust, e ing the $15 million settlement over furious george stephanopoulos. saying, my understanding is that abc is attempting to extract onerous financial and operational concessions from local broadcast tv stations under the threat of terminating long-held affiliations, which could result in blackouts and other harms to local consumers of broadcast news and content. the letter is seen as a warning that carr may take a heavy handed approach to regulating the conduct of media companies. >> okay. you presented without comment. >> except for the furious part. >> okay. >> you know why, that's such a -- curious george and furious george, that's pretty funny. >> clever. you're ied about -- you

thought -- >> you thought desantis was mean to disney. >> right. >> now, you think this is a further -- they've got a bull's eye on their back or something for disney? >> i don't know if there is a bull's eye on disney's back. i think there's going to be a -- >> on all media companies? and they don't deserve it. >> all media companies will have a bull's eye on their back. >> you don't think they deserve that after this? again with this -- >> unclear to me. first, as far as i understand it, the fcc is overseeing those affiliates, right? >> okay, you're actually going into the -- >> i'm going into the weeds here. >> the rabbit hole, okay, good. >> he's saying to himself, the leverage that he has over the big media companies actually isn't over the media companies themselves. it's over the affiliates, the over the air stations. the truth s the over the air stations are not owned all by the networks themselves.

there's the o&os, owned and operated. nbc and abc owns certain markets where they own the local network. a t of affiliates are owned by smaller companies, sinclair, all these guys, and they have deals with the larger media companies. he, i believe, is going to then use whatever leverage he has by saying, look, if you don't give them a good deal, these local guys a good deal, he's putting himself on the side of the local guys and the local news. >> right. >> by the way, we should all be fans of or at least, you know, trying to keep local news alive. the newspaper business for local news is gone. >> even if it is not money making, we need those. it's a community -- >> the local news, i believe the affiliates do make money. >> right. >> a lot of the local affiliates do make money. there are less people watching it. >> right. >> what i don't know is whether

he should be tying that, the way the quote, unquote, the way abc news media operates with, you know, how he regulates these affiliates and, therefore, these deals back and forth. that's, to me, a sort of open question. i think, look -- >> maybe they should confront them head on instead of the back door. >> i would say something different. if you genuinely believe in free markets, or whatever you think free markets are supposed to be, you know, robby starbuck is out there yesterday. free to create boycotts on one side. we were talking, that may be a version of a cancel culture of sorts. there's one on the other side. >> the shakedown -- >> whether the government -- >> the shakedown the pro-dei people did, it was exponentially greater than what poor robby was doing.

>> maybe i shouldn't have raised it in the context. >> the shakedown for -- >> the context i'm suggesting is, if you believe government is supposed to stay out of business, right, and for whatever reason, if you believe abc is not a straight down the news, middle road, maybe that's a business decision. i don't believe that's what they're trying to do. nonetheless -- >> nice if it wasn't, like, ten abcs to one fox. >> we can have a larger debate about that. what if i told you there was a market that was ten times larger? the truth is, it's not ten times larger. there is a market on the other side. >> okay. >> you know what? >> elon musk, thank you. that's where -- twitter is a place you can go -- >> you can go if that's what you like. >> the thing is, supplanting and displacing and ing everything we've known as news, but they deserve it.

>> they deserve it. as we sit right here. >> i don't care. >> you don't care? >> i try to do everything i can to not be part of the problem. i do. i know you do, too. >> i try. i mean, look -- >> we both try. >> i will say, this broadcast, if you get it on all sides -- >> i think you're right. >> -- every side, i genuinely believe that. >> we're unicorn. >> right. i don't know if you get it. sometimes a critique says, i can't believe you had this guest on. i say to myself, what are you, crazy? the whole point is that you can actually hear from all the different sides. >> right. >> always. >> right. >> that's what we always do. >> yes. but it's very -- you know, we talk about it earlier, we were exhausted, last week, remember? >> exhausting. >> getting up at 3:30 and doing this. >> exhausting. >> we bring guests on. you know, i gang up with you on guests, and i gang up with you on other guests. by the end of the week, we just

want to sleep and drink. [ laughter ] we have a lot more coming up on "squawk box." get your egg nog out. >> that'll work. >> nasdaq up. we'll talk about the tech trade and trends to watch in '25. we'll do that next. this christmas eve etidion of "squawk box" coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk." apple hitting a new high in yesterday's trading session as the market cap approaches. as we were discussing earlier, $4 trillion. joining us now to discuss the outlook for apple and other megacap tech stocks, ray wong, the consolation research founder, chairman. i almost called you wrong, but you're right, ray. nice to see you this morning. we're closing in on $4 trillion. i don't know if you heard the discussion earlier about warren buffett, who lightened his load. he still owns a big portion of apple, but maybe he should have even doubled down last year, frankly. >> definitely right. merry christmas eve. of course, happy hanukkah. i think the challenge really is when to get out of big tech. as everybody worries about putting too much in or high concentrations, the tech giants have been able to move and manipulate, as every market change has occurred.

whether it was cloud or whether it was going to mobile or, you know, going to the digital transformation. now a.i. it's because they've got the capital to invest and the capex to survive. that's why the mag 7, the digital giants are continuing to win the marketplace, because they reinvest their capital and reallocate toward the newest innovation and friends. >> do you think about the mag 7 as a block, if you will, or do you look at them individually and think very different thoughts about each? >> each one is a little bit different. i think the challenge is to think about them in terms of their business models and their etization models. amazon is playing in everything from ads to search, the digital goods and services to memberships and subscriptions. you have tesla going after the automation and the a.i. world. you have meta that's basically straddling a.i. and, of course, with their social networks to deliver on digital advertising. each one has perfected one of the monofiization etization mod

moving to the next two or three. apple has consumer trust. because it has consumer trust, especially with data, it makes them a great candidate to move into the health care field and personalize health. that's an area they'll do really well with. they do advertising but don't directly sell your data. they've got good ad revenues, especially with some of the deals they've had with google, search companies, and other organizations. that's why we see this continued growth, especially given the fact that these are digital giants and they can actually invest that capital. that'll be important for each wave. >> if you could only own two of the seven, who do you own? >> well, i bet long on tesla. i would actually look short term, especially on amazon. i mean that because amazon has cloud. amazon has the a.i. capabilities. of course, it's got the commerce. i bet long on tesla because what we're going to see is the deep tech benefits that elon musk put. in especially what happens when

we think of automation. from a.i. to what's going on with the energy transition and, more importantly, all those deep tech industry that's required for the next set of technology waves. >> is there one or two of the mag 7 you would not touch right now? >> i actually would not -- i actually would keep holdings in all seven. i wouldn't skip any one of them. i think you'd be missing out. i think the running joke on the broadcom thing is, it's the money printing machine. they're not in the mag 7, but it is something definitely to consider. the other thing to look at, we're going to see a couple trends. big tech is going to win from a.i., bus going to move beyond the chips and go into companies like walmart, costco, uber, that are leveraging that. of course, we'll see a massive ipo market, especially lots of companies haven't been able to come out in the current environment. you'll see that with databricks and stripe. of course, we'll see new waves in other technologies like

quantum computing. >> ray, want to thank you. wish you a merry christmas. happy hanukkah. all of it. appreciate it. look forward to talking to you again in 2025. >> take care. coming up on "squawk box," a holiday tradition. santa claus is coming to town, and norad is tracking his journey around the globe. that's next. later, will we see a santa claus rally? that's the term used for the final five trading sessions of the year. the first two of the new year. sam stovall is going to break it down later in the show. we're coming right back.

it's eve and santa is coming to town again. this year marks seven decades of

norad tracking santa's journey around the globe through its radar and satellite systems. joining us now, u.s. air force general gregory gio, north com commander. it is good to see you, general. okay, let's start with the weather. is it any concern there for santa? >> well, right now, he's on the west coast of russia, on the other side of the international date line. there's some snow, but we've seen over the years that santa is not affected by weather like our fighter jets could be. >> tell us where it begins and, i mean, it's a very specific route. it's not easy, obviously, to hit all those houses. where does it start as he goes across the globe and ends? >> well, it started about 20 minutes ago when he launched from the north pole. he goes over the west side of the international dateline, where it's still nighttime for, at this case, western russia.

we don't know exactly what route he takes, but it's usually there, west of the dateline. you know, traveling around until he gets to the united states later on tonight. >> it's monitored, obviously, by norad. what is the main device? is it satellites? is that how we know exactly where he is at any given time? >> we do use satellites as well as two other systems. our ground based radars and also airborne radars with awax and our fighter jets. between those three systems, we fuse it here at norad and are able to track his whereabouts throughout the entirety of his journey. >> you have how many employees ready to take calls about what's happening? verizon supplies the hotline. microsoft is involved. they don't even charge you guys, do they, for that? >> i'm sorry, i had a technical glitch there.

we have over 1,000 volunteers throughout the day that will help tell children where santa is at any time. of course, we appreciate the sponsors that bring the technology to allow us to do that. >> it's a sensitive subject, general, but are we -- is there a concern about drones? are you monitoring to make sure that, you know -- >> what's going to happen in jersey? exactly, elsewhere. >> we don't want him running into a chinese spy balloon either. >> absolutely not. we want to make sure santa is safe throughout the journey. that's why we can use the satellites, fighter jets, and radars. he doesn't need our help with navigation, but we can help with safety. there are a lot of different agencies that help with the drones. i don't foresee any challenge at all with drones for santa tonight. >> russians are flying around alaska, too. i guess it was in international air space, general. apparently not unusual. i know we'll lose you soon.

you have bigger fish to fry. have a great holiday season, christmas season, thanks for what you do. keep santa safe. we need the toys. >> very much do. >> thank you very much. >> you're welcome. >> i have a whole bunch of folks. >> coming, yeah. >> wake up early tomorrow morning. running to the tree. me, i'm still running to the tree. >> you are. >> i am. you know, we have a lot of gifts from santa. we do, the whole thing. >> put some clothes on. >> thank you. yeah, i think we're going -- we sometimes do the pajamas. >> yeah? >> i'll show you. >> that's fun. coming up, banks warning customers to practice safe checks around the holidays. our own leslie picker is going to join us right after the break. she's got the fascinating story. you don't want to miss it. plus, as we head to the break, take a look at yestery's s&p 500 winners and losers.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site

in times square. checking the future, red and green, perfect. you have the dow down a little bit. s&p and nasdaq both in the green. the bank industry apparently warning about check scams around the holidays. leslie picker joins us now with more. even more than normal, right, leslie? >> yeah. >> merry christmas eve. >> definitely. merry christmas eve, joe. thank you. during the season of giving, the bank industry is reminding you to practice safe checks. i can't take credit for that one. it's actually a real campaign by the american bankers association. that's because checks are increasingly susceptible to fraud, even though their usage plummeted in recent years. the number of suspicious activity reports filed by banks with the treasury department related specifically to check fraud has skyrocketed in recent years. the number of instances more than doubled in the aftermath of the pandemic. now, the treasury says the mail is particularly vulnerable to check interception, where

criminals will essentially steal envelopes from mailboxes and then alter the checks that were inside and deposit for their benefit. or thieves use the checks they steal to make more counterfeit checks from there. now, a recent government analysis of just a six-month period in 2023 found that mail theft related check fraud was associated with nearly $700 million, which include both actual and attempted transitions. this can affect personal savings and business accounts, as well as financial institutions that often bear the cost of check fraud losses, guys. >> just wonder, compared to debit cards, i mean, they're all susceptible, i think. what can you do in this case for checks, to practice safe checks? >> to practice safe checks, you joe. it's probably best not to use checks in the first place,

or deliver them by hand. if you send them through the mail, the american banks association says you should use permanent ink. avoid blank spaces on the check. conceal personal information. don't have the address or anything else on there. monitor your banking activity online. it's also probably best to check with your intended recipient to make sure they are actually the one who deposited the check, guys. >> that's unbelievable, the way you started that last answer. you probably really shouldn't send checks in the mail. can you believe that? that's where we are right now. i mean, that used to be the way of the world. >> yeah. >> used to be the way of the world. you need stamps, envelopes. how about ordering checks? takes three weeks. everybody got them from the same company, arland, whatever it was, john harland. >> they're expensive. >> it's amazing. totally new world. >> yeah. you know "catch me if you can" like around christmastime?

i thought it was a thing of the past, check watching and all that, but it is rampant again. >> wow. thank you, leslie. coming up, we're going to talk about the relationship between president-elect trump and elob n musk and other executives. it's not as new as you might think. henry ford, other titans had close relationships with a lot of presidents. t e best of "squawk box" by following us on your favorite podcast app. listen anytime. we're coming right back. (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪)

long before elon musk and president-elect trump, there was woodrow wilson and henry ford. the ceo influence in washington continues to grow as the power of washington grows.

joining us now with more on presidents and their relationships with ceos, tevi troy, senior fellow at the ronald reagan institute. the author of "the power and the money, the epic clashes between commanders and chief and titans of industry." good to see you, tevi. ronald reagan institution, is that across from the st. regis down -- >> 16th street, short walk from the white house. >> yeah, i know exactly where that is. >> come visit. >> i would next time. you know, it just seems like everything in our lives, we think it's the first time it's happened. like, there's never been anything like elon musk with donald trump. that probably is not as unique as we think, is it? >> exactly right. in fact, in all my books, i try to show how things that everyone says are unprecedented are actually -- they have precedence. they're not unprecedented. in this book, "the power and the

money," i talk about the relationship between presidents and ceo s, going back over a century. henry ford goes to the white house in 1915 to try to lobby woodrow wilson not to get involved in world war i. oops, he did. he charmed him by telling ford jokes. ceos were celebrities before elon musk was a celebrity. this is an old story in american politics. as long as you have powerful institutions, ceos of big companies, they are looked at by the government. sometimes positively and sometimes not positively. the ceos need to get involved in order to have their say and to protect their interers interest >> right. none of them owned x. rupert murdoch supposedly was involved in who was going to be the republican nominee in some election, or at least they talked about it. and then i think they made one of the most famous movies of all time, i mean, citizen kane

wanted to be a king maker and influence everything. even the media angle is not totally new. it just seems like it's a lot more pervasive with x. is that true? >> there's an even better example of henry luse, head of "time" magazine, which could have had more influence than x. x is millions of voices. "time" was one. he was all for eisenhower in 1952. he was writing positive editorial coverage. he helped devise the republican platform that year. he provided staffers for eisenhower in his '52 campaign, and he had a lot of influence. >> this was the "time" magazine? the "time" magazine guy? >> yeah. >> with a republican? >> what? backing a republican? >> yeah. oh, he was a huge republican

then. >> what? the mainstream -- that never happened. i don't believe it. >> tevi, i have a question. >> it was a more republican magazine. you're right, that's a big change. >> tevi, i have a question. we're seeing a lot of guys obviously from horowitz and silicon valley going into this administration now. i was thinking back to the financial crisis, even the last 30 years, where a number of very prominent partners, alumni of goldman sachs, made their way into government. it as sort of a tried and true thing. you know, goldman sachs -- not demonstrating their civic mindedness, but they took great pride that people would work at the firm and go off and do things in government. it worked and was, i think, a great benefit to, frankly, taxpayers and the government. however, the financial crisis happened. hank paulson was the treasury

secretary. all of a sudden, it was known as government sacks, a meme. government sacks everywhere. there was a backlash, not just against the individuals who were involved in government, but on the firm itself. there were all of these claims of conflicts and things. i was very curious what you think that portends for this whole situation. which is to say, it's great if it all works, and we hope it all works, but if it doesn't work, does it actually put the businesses with which some of these individuals came in any kind of jeopardy? >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, we were just talking about henry and "time" in 1952 and the surprise it was ever a republican magazine. but it was so in favor of eisenhower, there was a backlash. it became seen as too pro-republican. there was even a joke that said, "time," half the time protects the republicans, and half the time it bashes the democrats. there was a sense that "time" was so republican, it had a

corrective. it was so great, now it seems a left-wing place or has a left-wing bias. yeah, the involvement in government itself can change the nature and the way of the business and how it is viewed. >> has anybody ever done it really well in terms of the conflict piece? one of the things i think is important is you -- i think you want people who know stuff, who are are subject matter experts, who had great success, trying to help us in government. you'd think that's a good thing. at the same time, i think we care about the credibility of government and the idea that folks are doing this, are doing this without -- you know, not in their own self-interest. how you can prevent against that, is there a good example of that? >> sure. i mean, you can go back to both 1895 and 1907. jpmorgan himself gets involved in two financial crises we have and, despite the reluctance of presidents to deal with him because he is unpopular, he

helped save the u.s. in two financial situations, both in 1895 and 1970. lou wag sserman, hollywood mogu got close to lyndon johnson. he said before the '64 election, which was a landslide win for johnson, "i have to ask you a favor." johnson was wondering what the favor would be. he said, "promise me, i'll never have to serve in government." by being an outside adviser, it worked out better for both of them. >> age-old question, tevi. is it better to go in with some money with the government? i don't know, maybe you do okay. or is it better to go in with nothing and they all end up with eight-figure net worths. i mean, i'm not going to mention any names. think about it, recent history. think about recent history. they use government as a way to enrich themselves. >> look, i have a friend who was carter's domestic policy

adviser. he said all of his deputies became billionaires. so, yeah, definitely an issue that people go into government and later make a lot of money. i worked in the george w. bush white house, and i whose to go write books about presidential history like "the power of the money." everyone makes different choices. >> tevi troy, thank you. >> thanks. when we come back, more on "sawquk." airlines bracing for record numbers of people. how many people are heading to the airport. we'll be right back.

time now for the executive

edge. airlines are bracing now for their busiest christmas season ever, with tens of millions of people taking to the skies. now, a record 54 million passengers expected to fly between december 19th and january 6th. according to airlines for america, among the most popular destinations, orlando, las vegas, interesting for the holidays, ft. lauderdale, and honolulu. we've got two big hours ahead. the retail index is up nearly 35% year-to-date, but there is a big gap between the winners and the losers. we've got an analyst to go through it all and break it down right after the break. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast!

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let's take a look at retailers as the holiday season comes to its homestretch. joining us is oliver chen, senior retail analyst at td cowan. it's not all coming up roses, is it? where is the weakness? in credit card sales? what about online traffic? >> happy holidays. we've been encouraged by the momentum online. we're estimating up 7% to 8%. walmart remains the top idea for 2024, up 70%. walmart is doing a great job offering both value to the consumer as well as being a digital powerhouse in terms of

what's happening. what's been weaker, joe, is department stores and target, as well. consumer discretionary has been tougher as the consumer is still facing inflation challenges and has mixed consumer confidence, despite having a lot of spending power. a mixed bag in terms of what's working. what's working is value, scale, as well as those taking share, and both costco and walmart are taking share from a higher household income customer. on the other side of the coin, department stores, apparel, beauty, it's been a lot choppier for both target and macy's. >> two favorites, bath and body works. is that part of the beauty you were just talking about? >> yeah, bath and body works has a mall presence. it is a unique category in terms of fragrances, as well as hand sanitizer and candles. it's a highly giftable item. they're going a lot more digital, too. it's covered by my colleague. it's a stock we like.

another idea we like is bj's wholesale. the theme here, if you like costco, you'll like bj's, too. the pe multiple is at 22 times. costco is at 48 times. it only has 250 stores versus costco's 600 plus. a lot of nice growth at bj's, as well. >> so credit card sales, i mentioned that right at the top, not as good as october but better in the last couple of days or sessions. >> yeah, joe, there's been a lot of crosscurrents. previously, the weather was pretty warm. that impacted the consumer, as we've seen a cold snap. it's been better for apparel. you had the santa tracker on earlier. there's five fewer days. a real rush now. five fewer days is less shopping days, so that's something to watch, as well. we've been in the stores. there's a last-minute rush to get what you need. it's a real instant kind of holiday. those are crosscurrents we're watching, as well. the consumer feels strained.

despite having spending power. a mixed bag in terms of how consumers feel. the big theme here is you find a retailer that has needs plus wants, meaning the food business of walmart and costco. the ability for these, as well, to have scale and negotiate with suppliers. basically low prices. >> what's your best gauge at this point? you have credit card data, web traffic data, traffic, retail traffic. you have nielsen data. you get different things for different retailers, or you use all of the above? >> we use so much. we're looking at credit card data as well as consumer panels and a lot of the online tracking. what we're thinking for holiday is up about 3% to 4% total. cyber in terms of online, 7%. we're also in the stores. walmart, target, and i'll be

talking to management teams after this. overall, a mixed bag. it's a highly, highly competitive and promotional, as well. crosscurrents, and we think walmart will continue to be a winner. bj's as well. don't forget about the artificial intelligence at walmart. dijical advertising. that's the biggest in retail. >> biggest losers this time around. >> well, we're hoping for more people at department stores, so it's something we're watching. i was in macy's last night. the beauty area of that stor is pretty vibrant, but a lot of the clothing needs to be updated for younger consumers, to put it nicely. and you do need more service. you need to be able to find the cash register. those are things consumers want as well. >> right. okay, oliver. 7:00 a.m. now on the east coast, just after. we've got some of the top

searches. president bill clinton is hospitalized this morning. he was admitted because he had a fever. his deputy chief of staff, though, says he was just admitted for testing and observation and in good spirits and he is grateful for the care he is receiving. elon musk's a.i. startup says it's raised $6 billion in the latest round of funding and that values that company at more than $40 billion. says it'll likely go towards infrastructure such as its grauk a.i. model and a multibleian dollar super computer site in tennessee. and nipone steel's bid is now before president biden. a committee was unable to reach a consensus on the deal. the president now just has over two weeks to decide on that, and he's previously expressed

opposition to that takeover. in the meantime, take a look at the futures on this shortened holiday trading session, i should say. meantime i want to get over to dom chu. he's got a look at the 2024 naughty sectors and nice ones as well in the etf category. >> that's right. we're looking at the lens of etfs in 2024 and see if we can see elements outperforming and underperforming. first of all, no surprise the magnificent seven stocks within the consumer discretionary, communication services, and technology have really led the way, those mega-cap stocks. now, those are the will he best performing sectors in the s&p. you can kind of incapsulate that in the magnificent 7 etf. this one in particular is emblematic. the 7% year to date sort of tells it story about the mega-cap technology trade.

so that's the big theme so far this year with the big out-performance in the s&p 500. now, if you break things down a little bit more into perhaps some of the under-performers, there is only one sector in the entire s&p negative for the entire year. meanwhile, energy and real estate are the two underperforming sectors. so materials, energy, and real estate the three worst performing sectors within the s&p 500 so far this year. industry specific wise, maybe something a little under the radar for some folks out there, but for investors in airline and travel stocks, they've kind of noticed it all year, but the u.s. global jets etf has many of the travel booking names, airline type stocks not just here in the u.s. but around the world as well. on a year to year basis a lot of that performance has come in just the latter half of this year. so travel and leisure a big one here. as for the underperforming thematic trades as much as the

housing stocks have been in focus the last few years the i shares dow jones etf ticker itb is an underperformer, so we'll see if that housing trade plans out. by the way, if you were looking for artificial intelligence as a theme, yes, it's been a big one, but only a handful of stocks have benefitted from that front. the qqq etf is up. in the a.i. realm, andrew, joe, you might have been better off just buying the qqq as opposed to trying to find thematic etfs that track some of those a.i. stocks, guys. >> dom, i just want to say happy holidays but i also want to thank you for wearing a sweater because -- >> you were the inspiration. >> i have not worn a sweater in a while. i probably should. we used to have the sweater of the month club that i was going to -- i still think there's an opportunity there for us. >> that's really zweater.

>> it's very cozy. i want you to tell me a story. >> people say it's a mr. rogers look but i think there are worst things to be called than mr. rogers. >> he was all right, i think. >> i think he was. >> don't trust those guys normally. >> merry christmas, guys, and happy holidays. >> because i know the way you think. i know you. >> i know. you do. the u.s. trade representatives office has launched a probe into alleged anti-competitive measures by china to support its semiconductor industry. china already faces restrictions on the most cutting edge processors used for artificial intelligence. this probe focused on legacy chips, those used in the automotive, health care, infrastructure, aerospace and defense industries, and regulators are investigating

whether china used anti-competitive tactics to try to achieve dominance in the chip industry in china as well as global markets. meantime, policy makers planning to sell a record $411 billion of special treasury bonds. they plan to do that in 2025. that's according to a reuters report now on china's plans to bolster its economy. that number would be triple -- triple the amount of the bonds sold this year. and this all as stimulus measures trying to support consumption investments, trying to recapitalize in some of the large state banks there. china's csi 300 index gained 1.3% overnight on the back of that news. and coming up, more on the markets ahead of today's shortened trading session on wall street. then one of the most sought after mentalests in the world. >> this is the greatest. this is my favorite part of the whole year. that and the donuts. >> he's scary. he's going to mesmerize you.

>> mesmerize me. >> it's oz. it's not like dr. oz. he joins us on the set with trickery. i don't know even know if it's trickery.

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welcome back to squawk. we have some breaking news for you and it is not good right now. we've got some reports saying american airlines is now grounding flights nationwide because of what they're calling a technical issue. we are reaching out to the airline for more information. we're going to bring you updates as we get them, but as you can imagine, christmas eve one of the big flying days of the year, so here we are and this appears to be maybe a computer glitch or

something else. we do not know. we should say this is just reports. this is not coming from american airlines at the moment. we are trying to find out a lot more information, but a number of places now reporting on this news. >> natalie, a lot of people flying, but this is the time when you need to get somewhere. >> you need to get somewhere. you got to see your family, no question. >> i remember being stranded once. you want to tell someone this is -- this can't happen. there is -- i have family, parents, everybody -- >> i'm having panics about transplanting automobiles that's what it feels like. >> that just depresses me. he was so funny, you know what i mean? let's talk broader markets, right, john? >> i was too young to know who these people are.

>> so at this point going into the santa claus rally, but i don't think that doesn't really help us with our long-term plans. what about 2025? >> first of all, i'm a little rattled about american airlines. supposed to fly tomorrow. >> you are? >> three young kids. so let's hope it gets sorred out. >> i hope it gets sorted out, too. >> so markets i think, the way i'm thinking about it is we're kind of exiting the year where a lot of pretty bullish exec eggs built in. you look at consensus expectations it implies 13% earnings growth for the s&p 500 next year, that's off 10% growth year this year. so market expecting acceleration. that's against the backdrop of decelerating gdp growth, so i think there is quite a bit built into expectations. valuation also seems a little on the full side, 22 1/2 times

forward earnings. it's kind of a top desile type evaluation. there's excitement about this new administration, some of the policies around deregulation, spending cuts, extension of tax cuts, so hope for some productivity enhancements coming with that. artificial intelligence also a productivity dynamic, which i think will persist. we're just kind of entering the year cognizant of the fact there is a lot built into expectations. some of it is for good reason, but we're taking a slightly more measured approach as we enter 2025. >> would you be happy if multiples just stayed where they are? >> absolutely. >> because they're not going to -- i can't imagine they expand because of the rate cuts maybe we get some with a weaker economy, but not four or five. is two enough to keep us at 22

times earnings, and within 13% earnings growth we'll take it if we stay t 22. >> absolutely. i think it's hard to bet on multiple expansion from here, but i do think, yeah, if -- if companies can deliver on these earnings growth expectations, and we do get a teams type index level earnings growth, there's going to be winners in there. and i think it could actually setup okay. >> is it possible you could see gdp, you know, not go to single like one or less than 1% but go down 2 or 2 or below, and companies could still flourish at 13% growth? could they do that? >> yeah, i think -- so theect kpation is that real gdp in the u.s. goes from 2.7% to 2.1% next year. in that type of environment you've got nominal gdp growing

4%. revenue growth for s&p 500 companies could be mid-single digits there for marginal expansion, you could get to that teens earnings growth. as well as there's going to be winners and losers. >> that could be a sweet spot. i think you still get the rate cuts, too. >> you should have i think markets pricing in 1 1/2, to just under 2 cuts for this year. that to me now seems fingers crossed a little bit more derisked. i do think we could get 2 pluserate cuts. i think inflation is still on a healthy trajectory. >> you mentioned a couple of administration policies. you didn't mention tariffs. we don't -- we just don't know at this point? >> well, i think that's the broader point to make when it comes to assessing or predicting policies from this new administration is we don't know, and the devil is going to be in the details. i think some of the risks right now -- some of these

isolationist type policies, so tariffs, maybe some of what's going to happen with immigration, i think those are policies that could -- tariffs, for one could act on a tax on consumption, immigration crack down and potential deportation, that could act on upward pressure on unit labor costs. so it's hard to make a real call with that stuff because we just don't know and the devil is going to be in the details, but i think those are some of the potential risks to the economy. >> does the doj-type spending cuts, does that help because we worry less about the bond vigilantes can calm down maybe. or is it -- does it actually take away from economic growth by just the government spending less? >> i think there's a near-term long-term dynamic there where i think that type of stuff should be healthy the long-term.

sets the company up -- sets the country up a little bit better, reduces the deficit, moves more economic activity from the private sector into the public sector, so that's a productivity boost. near-term, again, i think we don't know the specifics, but if elon and vivek are successful in cutting $2 trillion of government outlays, that's going to have an impact on employment, have an impact on growth. again, near-term, but that's kind of a hiccup the market may have to deal ith. >> mario get anything this year? i mean he's very frugal. >> very frugal guy. >> he's very frugal. bonuses? >> you got to get him a briefcase. >> do you get peanut brittle -- yeah, these briefcases. >> i like frugality. you know i admire that. >> i know you do. >> as always, we sat down at aeroresearch meeting, lunch ming yesterday and mario gave us all

some good investment ideas for next year. >> cost him nothing basically. >> thank you. great to see you. >> if he's watching, he's laughing. >> happy nukah. >> when we come back, this is like the highlight for me -- you were great, by the way. it's not the highlight. i know, i just -- oz pearlman is back. he's going to mesmerize us. he's got some illusions and tricks up his sleeves. you do not want to miss this, folks. i'm serious about this. and then later meet your new roommate, siri. apple taking another swipe at making the leap from your smart phone to your smart home. we'll explain when "squawk box" returns. time now for today's a flack trivia question. what star is known for singing

the song "i want a hippopotamus for christmas?" the answer when "squawk box" returns. ld the best team and offering aflac can help attract and retain that top talent. you know we like that top talent. and listen, i mean you gotta listen. aflac gives employees cash to help with unexpected medical bills. it's prime time to add aflac. request a call today at aflac.com/prime

and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what child star is known for

singing the song "i want a hippopotamus for christmas?" . the answer, gala peavey. she recorded the song in 1953 at 10 years old. a report says american airlines is grounding flights nation wide. well, we now have a statement from american airlines. here it is. a technical issue is affecting american flights this morning. our teams are working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible. we apologize to our customers for the inconvenience. the company did not say whether all of its flights were grounded, and that doesn't give us a lot to go on for -- for how long we should expect -- >> nope. >> we know there's a ripple effect, obviously. >> big time. today's not the day for this. >> and it's american, but i don't know how many other airlines would be affected just from the ripple effects of none

of those flights going. maybe it'll only be an hour. hope springs eternal. >> hope for all the folks out there either road warriors or folks trying to get to their family. hyundai is going to start giving out free adaptors that will allow users to use tesla chargers. i see a lot of those and i kind of like them to connect more than 20,000 -- to more than 20,000 tesla super charger stations. they'll be available to anyone who bought or leased their hyundai evs before this coming january 31st. you know which ones those are. they're pretty recognizable. >> yeah. >> and hyundai has come a long way. i don't think of them the way i used to or kia. >> no, they're pretty great. you know i want one. i want the kia telluride.

>> you want the telluride? >> i do. you paused. >> i paused because i don't know why you just don't go for the range rover because you like them because it's like a range rover wannabe. you can be who you want to be. get the range rover. >> because i'm frugal. >> so we're back to this. >> yes, i like the frugality of it. >> it'd just be nice for you andrew ross sorkin, range recover and not a kia. here oz pearlman here to mez muize us. "squawk box" will be right back. (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is.

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time now for my favorite segment of the year. i know i talked about donut day being one of my favorites, which it is. but this i think tops that. i just want to say. joining us right now the wall

street mentalist oz pearlman is here. can he wow us again? >> if i knew this i would have brought donuts and united andrew's favorite things in one glorious circle. >> that's too much for me. >> too much. if i had known this. >> why didn't you know it? >> that's the nature. >> you know what i find is every year there's a new hot button financial trend, right? you go back ten years ago everybody was all high frequency trading, but now all i hear two letters, a.i., every single time. that's all i hear about. next year it'll be something else. what's the flavor of the week? put i'm going to tell you something that never gets old. >> magic. >> no, better. it's not what you know, it's who you know. for example, your rolodex right interest, andrew sorken's phone whereby just the people in there, the fact you could right now text elon musk. he might not know your name.

either way -- i'm >> i'm in his phone as jonathan. >> i want them to know -- i want the viewer to know exactly. i walked in here i don't know 15 minutes ago. commercial break i said to andrew. i gave him some thought, okay, to preload this, to think about this. i want to tell you exactly what i told him, which is, andrew, grab your phone and look through and think of any business leader in your whole phone, and i want you to grab your phone, hold it up to you and you've got a million people in there. and could have changed mine over and over and over. in fact, i think you did more than once. and to think of one person in there. have you got somebody in mind? >> just so we're clear, the ceo of a major company. and i went back and forth and then i said one. >> have you told anybody, have you whispered it? you've got one person right now

out of your whole phone. >> yeah. >> if you were to get this person on the phone i feel like right away you need a connection, that human connection. notice what i did there, joe. did you see it? >> i led the witness right from the start. >> well, don't tell us how you do this. >> did you honestly right now think of anybody in your whole phone -- i asked you think of anybody in your phone, any business leader. did it feel like i coached you specifically? >> no. >> close your eyes please. power of suggestion. keep your eyes closed. it's not what you know, it's who you know bhch what was the first thing i said to you, told you exactly what happened, what trends are. tell us all who did you think of, what companies do they run? >> sam altman, open a.i. >> sam altman, open a.i. i said it every year there's a

trend. chatgpt 5 it's already built in my brain. what if you were to call sam and connect, and you want a story, a word, a phrase, you want something that connects the two of you so that you have a bond. that's what journalism is, it's creating that open atmosphere where you can ask a personal question they've never answered before. one word, two words, three words, watch his eyes. he's thinking right now. what would i say to sam altman, boom, two words. is it two words? are you thinking of two words? >> that i would say to him or text him or something? >> yeah. can't be a whole phrase. >> short, two words. >> don't lie if it's -- why am i going back and forth but it connected something weird. you just did something with your eyes that was interesting. you have two words, any of the letters. i want you to reach out and grab an interesting letter out of a word. >> this is going to be a weird one. you cannot get this because only i would know this and only he

would really know this. >> only you and him. >> it was personal, that he might remember that -- >> 26 letters in the alphabet, you just thought of one. nobody does the vowels. >> you didn't do a vowel did you? >> see, alpha. are you thinking of "k"? >> that's not fair. that's not fair. >> there's nobody that knows but you and sam altman. >> correct. >> this isn't written here, spoken, nothing in your head. look at me. boom, boom, rev the engines, go-cart. is that it? >> do you guys see what's happening here? >> we don't know what you were thinking. is that really it? >> go-cart, that's really what i was thinking. so the first time i ever met sam altman, guys, this was probably 12, a dozen years ago i was at a conference and they had go-carting, and so i thought of

go-cart because i thought what would be a personal thing that he would remember that i would remember. >> anyone watching they think you're colluding because this couldn't happen. >> i want everyone to know there's zero collusion. i can't even fathom. >> he's not going to tell you. this is supposed to be the finale. joe's teed up but now andrew is having a break down. >> can i say this one is a serious situation. this is at a whole other level. >> andrew is worried what else do i know right now, to be honest. >> i thought there was no way. i figured you could guess the first part maybe. >> i said a.i. don't do an a.i. company. don't you dare. what did i ask you to do during commercial break? >> you had like a bunch of cards and they all were --

>> 100 companies. i tell joe pick a random company. >> yeah, you did. >> i i feel senior leadership is what matters from the top down. >> i can't get over what just happened here. >> i don't want to be like -- >> you picked a random company. >> yes, i did. off the card. >> do you know the ceo of this company? >> i do now. >> okay, think how many letters in this person's first name. it's too fast. four letters, wasn't it? here we go. i think i got the name. i got the name. he did this too obvious. we want a tight shot on joe. close your eyes for me, joe. >> i know you're going to get it. i'm not going to be surprised. >> all right. close your eyes, close your eyes. first name is mark, is that correct? >> yeah. >> and get joe on this. do we get joe on this? close your eyes, joe. can we get joe. i'm trying to see him on camera.

tell us which company, open them, zuckererbering, is that right? >> that's not the one i got. >> who's the company? who's the person? >> mark klaus. campbell's soup? >> campbells soup. i'll go with campbell's soup. >> holy -- i can't even say. this is not fair. >> what if, though? what if you'd pick a different -- fill in the blank on that. people always ask what if you'd done something different. what if you'd picked -- say it. >> i don't know the ceo of like a lego company or something. i don't know some crazy thing. >> what's that? what if you'd pick what? >> ceo of lego. >> if you would have picked lego, then, joe, i think i'm

ready to go. i think i'm ready for you to pick lego. >> can i just say something for a second? i know we're on tv, but this is crazy. >> did you just come up with lego for the first time ever? >> god's honest, i'm telling you this is insane what's happening here. this is not like some kind of scam. i feel like -- i feel like -- >> no, but i think he's evil to be able to do these things. >> only for good. >> how do you do that? how did he do that part? >> i don't know. it came out. i thought i ruined things when it wasn't zuckerberg, and i thought he screwed up up. >> when you started i thought oh, my god, he's going to do this bank shot job where it seems like you're right, and then he did it a third time. >> yeah, and then there's a third time. >> i've got to take my

microphone off. i can't do this. >> merry christmas, happy hanukah. do you need to clean yourself up in. >> i don't understand how this is even possible. >> when you came up with lego, i was going to say something else. why did you come up with legos? maybe he's very predictable. >> i was trying to think of a company that didn't -- >> are you very predictable? >> that you wouldn't know the ceo of. because i didn't know the ceo of lego. who's the ceo of lego? >> danish guy. we'll have him on next week. >> i'm a giver. >> thank you, you are. that's what i said. we got a oija board one year for christmas. i took it back because i was so scared. i didn't understand it. i think it's super natural, that's the thing. you're not that predictable, are

you? you're fairly predictable. you're not that predictable. >> i just don't understand what happened here. this is so crazy. >> wish you would have just brought the donuts, because we get really thrown off by that. >> how do you have the legos in the can? just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah. there are some feelings you can get with any sportsbook. ohhh! the highs! it is, right. no, no, no. the no, no, noooos -

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we've got a breaking news update now on the american airlines outage. the faa's air-traffic control command center flight showing a ground stop for american airlines and its subs. in a statement the airline saying the following. a technical issue is affecting american airlines flight this morning. our teams are working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible, and we apologize to our customers for the inconvenience. you can take a look at the stock. that's not going to really help the folks who are sitting in the airport to make it to wherever they're trying to get with their

families, but right now the stock up about 3%, and we hope you make it where you're supposed to go. i need to apologize because i'm still so -- >> i feel bad for american -- you know. but it's possible when i was cutting the deck of cards he got me maybe -- he directed me maybe to campbell somehow. but then how would he know -- >> how does he have legos coming out of the can? >> how did he know the can -- >> i can't get to the go-cart part. i've never talked about that publicly, i don't think. it's not something i would say to another human. >> has he ever -- he was on the show on saturday morning. has he ever just bombed where -- >> no, i've never seen him bomb. i don't understand. are you as crazed as i am about this? >> really it's scary. >> we're getting told to move on. i can't move on. i can't move on for the next two

hours. i can't move on for a day. >> i promise we're going to -- >> how did the lego come out of the can? >> how about if we talk about trump? president-elect trump -- >> donuts, i've got magic. >> big changes to the come to the economy once he takes office with what to expect in 2025 as liz pencotti is the director at the roosevelt institute. and a senior research fellow. and i guess usually when we have these segments, liz, we are going to get to her eventually. so why don't we start with that. is it a good thing or bad thing? >> i think we have an issue where trump is signaling to the market, to ceos, to other countries he's going to do the sweeping tariffs he campaigned

on, and to some extent they're not believing him and even some senior advisers are saying, no, no, it won't be what you think it is. in the first 100 days there will be pretty sweeping tariffs rather than targeted and strategic tariffs we've seen over the past two years and even the first trump administration. i think the big question you have are they go to go after deminmists where customs and border protection going after small packages which could really hit american pocketbooks, which could be a good thing for american manufacturers but ultimately could really place inflationary pressures throughout our economy with the sweeping tariffs he's empoising on china and even our friends, canada, mks can, mexico, and others are put in place. >> i agree. i don't see how he's not doing it, and i also agree his cabinet and people around him are trying to reassure everyone around that, no, no, it's just a way to

get lower tariffs around -- around the world. but we're going to see. i mean he's promised -- his base is very pro-tariff i assume because they've been told how great it's going to make things. and also, like, when you look at members of his cabinets it's actually entrusting -- it's a very different cabinet. some of his picks are more traditional, but there are also a lot of guys who have openly written about all the great stuff you can do with tariffs. so i think we're going to see tariffs. i mean we're going to see sweeping tariffs. and it's going to be interesting to see which of the -- the trump tariff theory we get. >> are we as deficit and -- and debt conscious as we're going to

get? if he extends the tax cuts and some of these other things, does it ever become actually where it's -- it's almost impossible -- it's almost an obstacle to moving forward because the debt is just so big or do we never get there? we can always print. >> well, i mean, i hope that the republicans are going to keep some of their commitments especially in the house to do a lot of offsets for the extension of the tax cuts, but i worry that the political reality is going to make a so hard. i mean, they don't have a lot of -- they don't have a lot of power. like they don't have a very small margin in the house, and you know what that means. it means they're going to have to negotiate. they can't lose any republicans, and it's very possible they're going to end up having to negotiate with democrats, and that means, what? that means for the tax cuts they're going to get without

offset they're going to actually get democrats to pay for them for more spending. and the -- the -- i mean hopefully some of the tax cuts are very pro-growth especially the one on capital that i think is going to grow the spending. and if the doj and these guys can't convince congress to follow suit and cut spending, then we're getting -- we're getting in dangerous territory. and let's not forget inflation is not back to target. in fact, it's ticking up. the economy is -- the economy is growing and real wages are going up, and these are just -- i think it's -- i think it's dicy out there. >> liz, you i think would be even more detin ffb. you think that some of these policies in your view while promising to deliver a great economic boom will blow a hole in a strong but fragile economy.

is that your view? >> i think that's right. becausee have a stack of mismatched plates that are okay for you, and you are looking at dropping the entire stack of plates and shattering all over the floor. as she was sayingee have a strong market. i wasn't surprise to see the fed cut and wouldn't be surprised to see a pause going into q1, but i think we have a really fragile economy, one that looks okay on paper, but the minute you lift up the hood, it's not great. to go back to your first question to veronique, trump has proposed $10 trillion in tax changes and no tax on tip, no tax on social security, no tax on overtime. i'm not sure we're taxing anything at this point based on

what he's proposed. $10 trillion is not something you can overcome from that is three times what the biden administration spent on the american rescue plan and the inflation reduction act. that is four to five cares act programs in a noncrisis scenario, and i think the inflationary pressures even if the pro growth, which they will be based on what's being proposed, i think we're looking at both the economic crisis and a huge hole in a strong but fragile economy. >> okay, all right. thank you, liz, veronique. we wouldn't have to be debating what's going to happen. >> i'm so bugged out. >> i don't think you can finish the show. >> i can't even understand. >> i can see how he got the campbell's soup. i don't see how he had the legos

in the campbell's soup. because you just came up -- that was random the lego thing. it's not even a u.s. company. >> i'm sorry. >> why legos? >> because i was trying to think of a company where you wouldn't know the ceo because i didn't know the ceo. >> he had a whole stack of deck of cards. i didn't know the ceo of crampble's soup. he's leaving in january. >> we got to go. the ceo of this company, apple. tim cook, that is. new highs, and why the tech giant is betting big on your home to keep these gaining coming. we will discuss that and maybe our bafflements, some more bafflement when we come back. (intercom) flight deck we are go for launch! (ethan) is that the one? (janet) so much space! that open kitchen!

(tanya) ...is that a walk in closet? (ethan) i want those tiles! (intercom) boosters engaged. (ethan) wait! we've got a problem! (janet) problem?! (ethan) how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (tanya) no, no! bad timing, janet!!! (janet) but that was the one!!!! (brian) no, no, no... opendoor!! (tanya) don't open the door. (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (all) really? (brian) yea!!! (intercom) we have liftoff. (janet) nice! (janet) houston we have a playroom!

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>> there's got to be some logical explanation, does there not? >> but he also looked at your eyes, too. and he said oh, you had a two-letter word. >> it's when he said go-cart. i was literally thinking to myself is go-cart two words, one word, is there a hyphen, what is that? and i was thinking go-cart, and then he said that. >> we're here to talk -- you're here to talk about apple. reportedly doubling down on its smart home efforts in the new year. it's to hook it up, though. >> you got to have a guy. i got a guy who can -- >> got a guy who knows a guy. >> exactly. apple hoir trying again with the smart home after failing to make a meaningful dent in that space for the last six years or so. apple already supports some smart appliances right now through its home kit platform,

but that's kind of a sideshow to its main businesses like iphone and services. home pod is there for voice control, of course playing music and iphone and ipod and various other apps. and going to take another hit at the space. at the report back in september they said they're expecting more than 931 million smart home devices to be sold next year. that would represent a more than 4% growth than this year, and apple is expected to play a big part according to bloomberg reports. it's going to act like a smart home hub, kind of like an iphone that you stick to your wall. it's had some use cases, letting you control appliances. apple working on a new version. he said this fall apple's also working on a smart security

camera that can compete with those from google and amazon's rain brand. google also reporting apple is working on a rain bell that would unlock your door automatically using that same facial recognition technology that useto unlock your phone. the point is to work from all manufacturers and not just with apple's ecosystem. back in 2022 a partner with google, amazon, and a couple other big tech companies to work on something called matter, that's common standard all these smart gadgets are going to use to talk to each other. but still, guy, this is not going to be a big business for apple at least not in 2025. iphone sales are still the biggest thing we're looking at. still showing lackluster growth expected here in the second quarter, but services one option here for apple, though, using the smart phone push to leverage more icloud subscriptions from

storing things like security and video on top of its hardware sales. >> you know who i would get the smart hub for two jim kernen. >> i don't like people listening to me. >> and the other is donald trump. he loves to sit with his ipad. you've never seen him? he sits at mar-a-lago with the ipad and plays different songs. so in mar-a-lago from his ipad. >> so he's got his spotify hooked up to it. >> i think the president should have a smart hub on his desk in the oval and they can play music. >> get that white house garage door opened and things like that. >> i don't see the point other than a regular ipad can already do that kind of stuff. >> how is it going to be that different? is it going to be cheaper? >> i would presume it would be cheaper. >> then the secondary effect is if you can't charge a massive premium for it, i always thought

that kind of hardware is a lower end business. >> it probably is. i giernty you apple intelligence is going to play some sort of role in thing. >> is ring making a fortune for amazon right now? >> ring makes a lot of money from the service, too, because they charge you a subscription fee on top of that. that's what i'm really looking at from apple even if it's a stripped-down version they have you stick on your wall what kind of opportunity to get that kind of revenue. >> more so than selling doorbells and things like that and adding -- also new homes. when new homes get built, making partnerships with that. >> nothing great about the iphone. 1/29 of 2023 i would say at 1/29. it's almost 4 trillion. on april 19th of this year it

was 255. on a $4 trillion company how do you basically go up? that's about 60 or 70%. >> the whole narrative changed around the company when they announced that. >> just to watch it happen is -- >> here's the real math to do. warren buffett sold 615 shares of apple. he did that -- that was over the trailing year ended september 30th. >> that we know of. >> of this year. >> that we know of of this year. >> no, it's a lot of money. he's got a lot leftover obviously, but it would be better not to sell obviously in hindsight. would have been better if he bought some bitcoin and call it rat poison, too. >> got to talk to the mentalist about what to do. we've got some real news to get

to, folks. an update now on the american airlines outage, and it is some good news for travelers. the faa now saying the nationwide ground stop has been lifted and flights are starting to board, so everybody breathe a bit of a sigh of relief this morning. we had a sort of 25, 30 minute period if you were sitting in an

>> you end up outperforming the market by about 300 basis points on average and do so with 75% of the time, so communication services, consumer discretionary information technology would be those groups that are likely to continue to do well. >> you said the mag seven would do tremendously well. >> you also want to take a look at the top 10 sub- industries in the prior year and carry forward into the new year, that would outperform on average about 800 basis percentage points, a lot of those

companies like tesla and automobile and semiconductors like alphabet and the internet media, so i still think you want to be holding onto those winners. >> sam, we have to leave it there, we want to wish you a very merry christmas and happy hanukkah. thanks. coming up, an outlook for the housing market, squawk box will be right back.

>> an update on the fence stress test story, we have been telling you about this morning, the biggest banks are playing it through the federal reserve this morning, according to a person familiar with the matter, a loss expected this week that could come as soon as this morning, the fed is looking to make changes to the stress test due to what he calls the evolving legal landscape, that is aiming to improve transparency and reduce volatility in july, several groups accuse the fed of being in violation of the administrative procedure act because it didn't see public comments on these stress scenarios and kept supervisory

models secret. >> with one week left in 2024, housing remains a key issue heading into the new year, we will try to get to both of these things. high mortgage rates and high prices, we had the executive vice president of zuma investment, what do you think is going to happen, there is a story by the way in the journals that says that your mortgage is not actually your biggest cost with mortgage, that is actually surprising. >> 32% were paying more than half to property taxes and homeowners insurance. >> pretty troubling, as it pertains to 25, what do you see? >> i think more challenges, we haven't seen any relief on the stress affordability issue the, that is only getting worse as mortgage rates remain elevated and they are going higher. >> what do you think the rates will be for the next 12 months?

what do you think the average homeowner should expect if they were going to go try to buy a new home. >> i don't forecast rates but i can't imagine why rates would go much lower from here, especially with the trump administration proposals with potential risk of higher inflation, so i think that right now we are looking at the affordability index as probably about almost 25% above trend line for existing homes and about 10% to 15% above for new homes, so today it is troubling for the entry-level buyer, we are seeing more resilience for the higher move-up segment, especially those that are able to use cash but it is a challenging market. >> in terms of new builds, when you look geographically, is there any market where you see something really great happening? >> i wouldn't say there's anything great happening because if you look at the markets that are not high production, like the midwest, we are seeing continued home

price invitation that is pretty significant, take my home state, my market of cleveland, home prices are up 8% year to date compared to markets nationally up 3%, 4%, so the production builders that is making availability more of product and keeping a lid on home price inflation, but i would say i think we are definitely seeing that bifurcation the market throughout the u.s. >> do you like any of the public homebuilders? >> we are more skewed to the high-end elders, toll, dream finders, taylor morrison but we also like lennar given the transformation we are expecting from the millrose spin. but i think it is all relative, i think we are neutral on the sector, given the challenges that we see, i think we have to be looking for some highest --

modest exposure but there's no question of any headwinds and you start talking about the risks of tariffs and deportation, i think there are headwinds that will keep the lid on performance. >> so you would not even buy in? if you were not exposed. >> i think you want to have some exposure but relative to the market, we don't see the sector outperforming the market. >> but you would go high-end over something else, you wouldn't want to buy index on this. >> yes, i would be more particular, whether it is the entry-level elders, we just did our proprietary survey, we released incentives for our two- year high, spec is also pretty high but they are working through it. i think we will see margin pressure, that will be less evident, so it is challenging, the builders are very well positioned, they are the best

they have ever been but nevertheless, as we sit today, i don't see it as an exciting catalyst that would propel these stocks in the industry. >> i want to wish you a merry christmas and happy hanukkah, we will see you in 25, thanks. >> coming up, congressman pat phelan joins us with a look at what to expect from the hill in new york and the gop's plans after inauguration day, you're watching squawk box on cnbc. big news for mahomes! i'm switching to iphone 16 pro at t-mobile! it's built for apple intelligence. that's like peanut butter on jelly... on gold. get four iphone 16 pro on us, plus four lines for $25 bucks. what a deal. ya'll giving it away too fast t-mobile, slow down.

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>> welcome back, the consumer financial protection bureau filing a complaint against walmart and branch messenger, since 2021, walmart has used branch accounts to pay more than 1 million drivers as a part of their spark driver program, it is their gig working platform if you will for workers, that do the

delivery work for walmart and says the company has forced drivers to use what they are claiming as a costly deposit account in order to get paid, the workers allegedly faced numerous delays or fees, they needed to transfer the money into a different account, this is according to the cfbp, and in a statement, walmart rejecting these claims saying the lawsuit is riddled with errors and blatant statements of settled principles of law. it says the cfbp never opportunity walmart a fair opportunity to present its case, and messenger saying that it disagrees with the case and accuses the agency of overreach. so a lot to watch for in 2025. joining us now for a look at the gop's agenda in the new year, republican congressman, pat fallon of texas , i really

just want to talk about the notre dame georgia game, but you were on the last national championship team, did you play that game and everything? you were there. >> yes, no, and yes, i played under the coach, and yes i was there for the game. i could go in if the coach needed me. >> even being ready to go with something that you will never forget, and this year, notre dame, true or false, notre dame is not overrated this year. >> true, they are not, they are very good and eorgia is going to have a tough time on their hands and i will no longer be able to say on january 21st that i was on the last notre dame championship team. >> that is quite a prediction. okay, let's talk about what happens after you just mentioned, the inauguration around that vicinity.

one of the things that you think we need to do and i'm not going to tie it to what happened in new york city recently, i was just looking at more things about what happened on the subway. >> oh, my goodness, it is unbelievable. >> but there's a lot of people and obviously i'm not going to be tarnished by saying all immigrants are evil, i'm not saying that, but there's a lot of families that say this would not have happened if these people weren't here, and if they hadn't come back if they were already deported from the country wants. >> you are absolutely right, let's just look at the data, in the state of texas, we had since 2011, 299,000 illegal immigrants charged with over 513,000 crimes that resulted in

187,000 convictions. if you extrapolate those numbers over the other 49 states, those are alarming, that is why we need to secure the border, we need to know the people coming in. and president trump will do that, because if you are not safe, you are not free and right now we are not safe. >> you are on the subcommittee for economic growth, regulatory policy and economic affairs, that doesn't mean that border security is not a part of your purview, that is a major part, it plays into all these things. >> it absolutely does, that is why you saw in texas, really a lunch to the right, president trump would have won by double digits in the state of texas, the folks living along the border are on the front lines and they are sick of the crime, the corruption and the cartels, they want the adults in the room that will take it seriously and the republican party is clearly the ones that will do that and president trump will begin to secure the

border on day one. >> okay, but who gets rounded up and deported? and how is that, i mean you know how things are covered in the country right now, everything a person that gets deported, you see on 60 minutes or some newsmagazine show that it is going to be very difficult to follow through on that. >> what i would recommend is, there are 650,000 criminals that are illegally here in the united states right now. you know what, those are the folks that are harming people and if the left wants to protect them, go ahead. listen, 5 million americans voted for republican candidates as opposed to democratic candidates, that is a clear number, people want us in charge. democrats are much better at gerrymandering, we should probably have more of a 20 to 25 majority but as long as we

work together in unifi, we can get things done. >> how about cybersecurity in china, that is another thing that also, it's tentacles are going, a lot of things can happen if we don't handle that correctly. >> there's no doubt, i said on the armed services committee, we don't want to fight yesterday's wars, we want to fight tomorrow's wars, we saw how damaging the attacks were on the colonial pipeline and the jbs, we have to be ever vigilant here and hold folks to account, plus the attacks coming from china or russia, it

is certainly two nation-states that don't want to see the united states prosper and we need to do everything that we can to entice the best and brightest young americans to work for the federal government and then go into the private sector. >> i want to get your comments on the energy policy, and i think we are producing more than we ever have before, maybe that is in spite of certain things with the biden administration, but for whatever reason, the prices are high, that brings a lot of production in the incentives. what if we give almost too many incentives to the oil industry so prices do go down and it draws down to $50 per barrel, is that good for the industry, is that what we want? >> we definitely want to take their shackles off, and i talked to energy producers over the last four years since i've been in congress and i didn't meet with anybody that said they liked the policies of the

biden administration. i want to release the american energy sector to make us number one energy independent but number two, being able to export natural gas to our allies, to be less reliant on countries like russia. if you are an environmentalist, you should want the united states to do that, because we have a rule of law, independent judiciary, we can protect the environment better. >> you look familiar and i don't think i saw you on the sidelines, i remember what it was, and i want to ask you, can we be absolutely certain that the president and the vice president, even the current president and president-elect, is everybody safe? those lapses were glaring from the secret service and we saw that exchange you had with the acting director, what is going to happen, what needs to happen? because there are enemies, think about iran, how many

invested parties that would be in causing problems here. are we safe now? >> let's be very clear, if there was a trained for nation state, an assassination team on july 13th in butler, president trump wouldn't have lived, the fact that they allowed a shooter to get within 150 yards on the roof, there were so many breakdowns and for the acting director to use it as appropriation request and ask for $2 billion additionally was incredibly egregious, and it would have cost much of anything to have mitigated the high ground, put law enforcement and or cameras on the roof to have secured the complex, 17 acres with a dozen local police officers, to make sure nobody could get anywhere near it. that would have caused $2 billion, we did an analysis

with home depot with some police tape stakes, things of that nature, it would have cost $400. so not to learn lessons from that and have the acting director standing right behind the president, would he didn't have a vest or radio or operational readings weren't attended. and the secret service whistleblowers brought that to my attention. so for him to sit there and say, try to make this politicized, i'm saying, there's no operational reason to be where you were. so we need to learn those lessons and clearly he didn't and he needs to go by january 20th. >> it is going to happen, effectively, and any chance for that to happen, but we o need the right people in charge of that and there has been some other weird stories over the years with the secret service. we definitely got to get that, among others, that house in

order. appreciate it, and i think, you know what, it is on late that night, it is on new year's day, isn't it? >> yes, 8:45 kickoff. >> i don't like that. that is wrong. what about the georgia quarterback, i don't think they need that other guy. >> it's going to be a great game, it is going to be excellent. thank you. coming up, netflix betting big on live sports, the streamers first ever nfl game, it is live tomorrow, we will get you up to speed on what to expect and what it means r fotheir future.

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>> welcome back, tomorrow

netflix and the nfl are teaming up for the very first streaming christmas day game, we have a look at what these gains could mean for netflix and the nfl's future. good morning. >> good morning, andrew, the nfl is estimating a $150 million deal with netflix, the first time that netflix has streamed a major league sport, and with netflix shares up 80% in the past year, and part of the enthusiasm about their ad supported lower-priced tear, sports is seen as a key way to drive real-time viewership that is so valuable for advertisers. and as the mike tyson and j paul site drew about 60 million households, these gains are seen as not just drivers of engagement for ad dollars but also subscriber retention in the u.s. where netflix adoption is so high. if tomorrow's games work technically and by reaching a

new, more global audience for the nfl, it would set the stage for the nfl's continued global expansion and potentially, even more lucrative deals. these christmas games, as the nfl plans a record eight international games next year, up from five this year and the nfl says it is considering groaning to as many as 16 international gains. >> this is important, to build our sport international, we need to being the -- bring the best content, but we need to have media to reach their gains effectively, each market is different as you get into these international markets and netflix helps us get into these effectively. >> tomorrow's games are successful, it could give amazon a reason to renegotiate its contracts early, it can opt out of most of its media deals after the 28-29 season and

expand partnership with netflix and create a new package of international gains for netflix. as for concerns about their ability to stream such big events after glitches in last month's fight, sources say the nfl commissioner is competent and in very close touch with the netflix co-ceo. andrew? >> should we make a bet, like prediction markets other this whole things goes off without a hitch? and i just want to know how long you think everybody sticks around, how many new subscribers they actually get. >> i think what is really interesting, if you compare this to the mike tyson fight, fights are something that people are accustomed as using as a pay-per-view thing, they are used to paying per fight they are going to watch, whereas football games, you are

used to watching on television or espn or broadcast tv so i think it is a very different type of product. the other thing is that netflix is very well penetrated in the u.s., so the assumption is, that the vast majority of nfl fans also probably have netflix because the numbers are so high in the u.s. so from a subscriber's standpoint, this may be more valuable as a retention tool, if you want to watch football, you need to have netflix on christmas day but you probably already have netflix. i think what is interesting is internationally, overseas, do they say i really need to watch these games or is it more about introducing his games to a global audience for netflix, either way, it seems like a pretty good deal considering how much they spend on things like high-profile movies, yes a movie you can watch over and

over but these games, they have the ability to really bring a lot of ads and marketing around them. >> it is great to see you, merry christmas and happy hanukkah. ndarcoming up, a look at the bo mket heading into the new year, what that tells us about the economy, squawk box will be right back. this re dot have agentforce, so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails. it's what ai was meant to be. ♪♪ ♪

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>> if you missed this earlier this morning, it was just for a moment but it had folks scared and worried, the airline briefly suffered a technical outage that resulted in a nationwide ground stop, that lasted, it was less than an hour, it was lifted around 8:00 a.m. when the airline began boarding flights again, so folks can make it to their christmas plans. >> checking the futures this morning, you can see it is still up a little bit on the s&p and the nasdaq down a little bit, joining us, checking out treasuries, you can see right now, about 4.61,

joining us to talk about the treasure market, the fed and the outlook for the rates. steve liesman, who wants to start ? >> i can summarize, nine out of the 12 months this year were negative in the fed nonmanufacturing, which really does raise some eyebrows come in the last three months ganged up around that -6 number but it really does underscore something, we know manufacturing is had a tough time, philadelphia might not be representative of the entire country but it is definitely something to keep an eye on, especially at a time where uncertainty seems to be the word i have heard most over the last several fed meetings, and in a way, many investors are going to have to be used to

something very new, something that was more predominant when you and i were back on wall street, that is thinking through yourself as to where the economy is going, studying the fundamentals because i don't think the federal reserve is really in tune and in some type of crystal ball fashion with what may lie ahead, i think they are definitely scratching their head a bit and it is understandable, we had basically four years of governance that in my opinion was way off the normal curve, of what governing is in the u.s. and i think the silent majority spoke during the election process and i'm confident that moving back to normalcy will definitely be worth a dividend with regard to the economy. >> steve, go ahead. i'm going to unleash you. >> well, i don't have much, except i think there's one aspect of the philly fed

nonmanufacturing index, that i think underscore something that rick was talking about, if you look at the outlook, that number is up strongly, two months in a row and i did check by the way that the november number which you see is a postelection number and it's one of my big things for next year which is optimism, it looks to have gripped businesses with the incoming trump administration but when i look at the whole set up for next year, i'm also hearing and seeing indices that suggest a lot of uncertainty, so my theme number for 2025 is this optimism versus the uncertainty that is out there in terms of how the new fiscal policy will set up and it also creates a second conflict which is the deficit of the trump tax cut promises. and finally, you have this other thing, you've got fed rate cuts which are penciled

in, you have sticky inflation but also fiscal policy, that is three-way in terms of how all this works out. and what you've had is this anomaly, this short-term, by the way, rise while the fed is bringing rates down. to be fair, it is ahead of those expected rate cuts. go ahead, sorry. >> i didn't mean to interrupt, i just think the anomalous would be the exact opposite word i would use, to me what is going on in the 10 year is reality, the unreality is that we ever spent any time under 4% in 2024, as a matter of fact, right now, 4.61, we are nine basis points away from a new 2024 high-yield close, which was the third week in april at 470, and i fully expect 2025 will test 25%.

>> i'm fascinated by your comments on this, which is we have given back almost all of the decline that you saw ahead of the fed cutting rates and i don't know if the 10 year is tied to the fed funds or somehow it is disconnected and focused on fiscal policy, focused on inflation, i say that without a big bump in the five-year forward that suggests there's not a lot of extra inflation embedded in this number. and then it gets to the question, rick, which i understand what you're saying, the last four years you thought were bad governance, what are the next four years look like? can the market sit here and say okay, the trump administration is coming, they are going to get a hold on this problem. >> they are going to look a lot like 16 to 20 without the covid effect, that would be my guess. >> but what happens with the deficit, does the market not care, i'm assuming --

>> the market cares about that, what the market doesn't necessarily care that in my mind after many conversations with traders, it's not about the fed only, the market has a voice and when the market is scratching its head, look at the 10 year. >> i agree, what i can't see, this notion that somehow the incoming administration has a concept for getting a hold of the fiscal policy outlook. that is where i can't figure it out. >> the last administration couldn't even spell fiscal policy. >> i agree, i think they made a huge mistake in not caring about it, they did care about revenues, they did propose revenues even though those were

doa but i don't know where the current administration or the incoming administration is going to come out on that. >> there's one thing i want to throw out, this doge group, i think it is terrific, but discretionary income is a pie slice so small that nobody would even fight for it at the table of christmas eve, it is just a little sliver, i don't see any possible way they could cut the amounts we are talking about under that congressional spending, and all the other spending areas seem to be off limits. that is going to be the big issue in early 25, to see how that proceeds with less regulated society and the growth aspects that may go along with it. >> merry christmas my friend. merry christmas. >> merry christmas to all the gang at cnbc. >> i would ask for that sliver,

the real damage is done between thanksgiving and christmas for me, all the progress that i made all year, it just goes backwards. guys, thank you, merry christmas, happy hanukkah, we will see you soon. on the other side of this, liz hoffman is going to join us to talk about silicon valley's new influence in the trump administration, in washington and the impact of the tariffs, don't go anywhere. we are going to get the scoop after this.

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>> welcome back, president- elect trump enlisting top leaders for his new administration, expanding his role in silicon valley in his new term. joining us now, liz hoffman, good morning to you, if you go close up, what do you think this is going to mean for the valley, for business, as you sort of try to crystal ball 25.

>> when you think about trump's approach to business, on the one hand, you expect wide deregulation, he has made a bunch of promises to industries, on the other hand, there's this unpredictable populace current running through it, so coming in, the question is which of those wins out on any given day, and i get a little tired of analogies bending the knee, there are certainly pockets where that happened, but silicon valley has made very concentrated, very asymmetric bets and they won, and i think they fully expect to get the benefit of that former approach and they will be huge issues coming up on a.i., china, the supply chain, data privacy, energy use for data centers that hey badly need and i imagine they will get what they bargained for. >> but what does a win look like, when you say bargained for, what does that look like in practice? >> there is an ideological

component for sure, that i don't think is disingenuous, these guys really have come to believe that government is the problem, there's ways there are real cultural rot that runs through a lot of american institutions and i do think there will be a crackdown, we saw donald trump speak over the weekend, and both private companies, a little unclear on how that works but a lot of those initiatives are shaky, with legal footing from the job and also republican institutions where a lot of this started at universities, some of them publicly funded, but the other thing is, donald trump has really embraced this idea of economic innovation as a part of maga, and there are so many pieces, but it was really about manufacturing hard

goods, but there is talk in the economy that we can win, too. >> when you see jeff bezos down in mar-a-lago, do you say these big companies are going to "win" and are there going to be problems down the line? we saw the fcc chair talking about things he's not happy with, i can imagine there's other things people might not be happy about as it relates to these big tech companies. >> the one thing i think you will see, and we can talk about tariffs in a minute, the devil is in the details, you can see a situation where tim cook says i totally get it, but let me explain why there should be a carveout for this particular piece that comes from a particular region or isn't made in the u.s. and sort of taps on

a reserve of goodwill that has been built up pretty carefully i think and those decisions, as you know, billions of dollars to these companies. >> unfortunately we are out of time, if you can believe that. that was such magic here on the set, but we had the mentalist on and we used up most of the time to figure out how he has done that, and manipulating us, sort of. i want to wish you a very merry christmas and happy hanukkah and a great 2025. she has a grt eanewsletter that is worth reading. we have to come right back, i'm sorry, we have to go to a commercial break.

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>> just about a half hour, a little over the edge of the opening bell, we spoke about the investment group, you thought in december, might be a little bit week after the run- up we have had, but the

pervasiveness of the selling, does it surprise you? >> yes, the persistence, we talked about it a lot, and we talk about it on cnbc, how much we have seen persistence, day after day, negative breath, and a part of it is just people looking to ring the register, take some gains, we've had a very big year and reposition to go into the new year and now going into the new year, it is an interesting situation because when we look at the year ahead, we just look at what could impact the market from a lot of different perspectives, as we label it a pro or con and there's an even split right now, the brits in the market is good, just overall, if you are betting against the market, you are betting against the overall prevailing trend, we are at 80%, but the a.i. stocks are doing well, the economy is doing well, there's concerns about the said becoming less dovish but that is because the economy is doing

well. and i don't think that was much of a surprise last week coming out, and part of the volatility also coincided with the hiccups and continuing the resolution, wednesday around the press conference is when we started to see the deal breakdown in the republican party and friday morning, i think it was on this show, you had someone saying there was a breakthrough and they were coming to a deal and friday we saw the market rally again. i think the fed shouldn't be ignored but also, there was just concerns that the path may not be as smooth going forward but overall, i think the election and the make up in d.c. for the next four years is a pro for the market rather than a con. >> in the third year, the date of the bull market, beginning in the third year and after two years like we had, 22% plus, that is good things, but the third-year is not great.

>> yes, when you get to your 30 year, the kids can be a little cranky and the bull market, those periods tendency below average returns, we saw some of the strongest returns in history, and we just sent this out earlier today, the s&p is on pace to close above the 200 day moving average everyday this year, it has happened 11 other times since world war ii. the average return of next year was half, about 4% versus the long-term average of 9% and the last two times it happened was in 2021 and 2017 and the market was down the next year. there's a lot of good to think about but at the same time, and you want to be restrained in your enthusiasm, because the market has rallied because of this good news. >> chip stocks need to make a

stand, that is worse? >> yes, chip stocks have been underperforming in the second half, they are leading in the economy, and to see that weakness is another one of those concerns that balances out some of these pros. thank you. merry christmas. happy hanukkah. >> thank you. >> thank you. we got like four seconds. >> want to wish you a happy christmas. >> to becky as well. to all of our viewers. we can't get over that illusion. in make sure you join us -- don't join us tomorrow -- because we won't be here, but squawk on the have next. good morning. we got an abbreviated session this christmas e