welcome to "the exchange." i'm frank holland in for kelly evans. happy holidays. the bull market is in tact, but there is one thing our guest says could derail it next year. and our analyst is seeing clear trends emerging for the new year as she brings the stocks that stand to benefit. this is one of the names of gains in sight. that's a holiday hint. up 87% this year. that makes you think what it is. i'm on twitter, instagram and tiktok. and the stakes are high for

netflix to get it right. we look at why tomorrow's nfl games are critical. but we begin with today's markets. john chu -- dom chu has the numbers. >> as we talk about the move in the markets right now, we're seeing a bounce. we're going to try to close out on a high note. we are right near session highs for the three major indexes. the dow is up roughly 200 points or a half of 1% gain. bigger percentage gain, three quarters of 1% for the larger s&p 500, currently at 6,017, up about 43 points. at the highs, we were up 45. so again, right near the session highs. that means your intraday trading range, 6,099 is the current record high. the nasdaq, really leading the advance here, up one full per felt, 197 points for the nasdaq.

from a macro perspective turning towards cryptocurrency, we're seeing a move within a broader trading range over the last month and a half or so. bitcoin prices at 98,200, a strong move higher. on the high end, since about november 11, we're talking about 108,000 thereabouts for bitcoin, and 88,000 on the lows since, again, the middle of november. so that is your range so far, a $20,000 range. and from a rate standpoint, it's hard to believe, but right now near ssion highs. so bonds for the u.s. government selling off in value, the yields rising to 4.62%. over the course of this kind of year-to-date period, the lows we saw could be around 3 .62%. so a full percentage point in terms of yield difference

between the lows of the year and the highs of the year. we'll see if that becomes a theme going into 2025, frank, for those yields. back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. as yields rise, probabilities for rate cuts continue to decline. steve liesman has more. >> frankie, happy holidays to you. optimism and uncertainty look to be the two main conflicts themes for 2025. consider some of the data we got just this morning. the outlook in the philly fed's nonmanufacturing numbers shows the optimism we have seen in business survey after survey. expectations in the richmond fed's manufacturing outlook out this morning showed several come -- components at all-time highs. but an offset comes from the

outlook for fed rate cuts. one rate cut next year, but they are decidedly unsure about a second. that trade can just a 40% probability in december. that's the bar on the right of your screen, the probability of a second cut. the ten-year, it's gone the other way, while the fed has cut rates and the ten-year yield did decline. 100 basis points of cuts delivered from the fed offset by 100 basis points of gains in the ten-year yield. so those are the themes so far, optimism versus uncertainty. you have deficit hawks out there in the gop versus the president-elect wanting to cut taxes and all the promises he's made there. you have fed rate cuts versus sticky inflation and expansionist fiscal policies. so uncertain si, offset by tariffs and still high and maybe growing deficits. that's going to be seen as an

inflation risk by the fed. that's going to mean a more cautious fed, more cautious to cut in 2025, until the outlook becomes less uncertain. >> so steve, really interesting data there. i have a question for you, respect we just one inflation or jobs report away from all this changing again? the dual mandate is the key. jay powell stressed the importance of the jobs market and referenced inflation this time. if we see a meaningful change, doesn't that change the outlook all together? >> i think it could. and i think what's smart about your question is, we're coming out of a period of a lot of distortion in the jobs market. the jobs reports we've had. you had those hurricanes and the strikes. then you have the bounceback from them. so the december report, even though there's going to be a lot of holiday hiring and firing and all that stuff, and at least be beyond those restrictions, frank. so if we get a weak report, it

will increase the odds of that second rate cut being in there. but that's not going to undo the uncertainty that's out there. more broadly, though, your question is, if there is broad economic weakness, then i think what you're going to do is have the market not be concerned so much with the outlook for deficits and expect more fiscal spending and probably more rate cuts. so broader weakness that will change things around. >> steve liesman, great to see you. >> that's the second week, frank. it's january 10th. so a weird one. it's a weird one. if you take off the first week, then it is the first week. >> steve, i hope you're not taking off. but it is january 10th. steve liesman, great to see you. my next guest says the biggest risk in 2025 is policy error, including a possible mistake by the fed, which is a sure way to kill off a bull market. joining me now is victoria

green. happy holidays. good to see you. >> merry christmas. >> merry christmas to you, as well. so you're worried about a policy error. are we talking about possible tariffs, are we talking about the fed cutting its outlook from four to two cuts? >> concerned that the fed is too early, too late, too early, too fast. they have a very thankless job. we're calling ing our outlook 2025 bullish with a but. could we see major cuts to government ek xpenditures and employment? could we see the fed destabilize some of the rates we've seen? so it doesn't die from old age, bull markets can be killed off by policy error, and those

stakes continue to rise because we have so many uncertain things. >> vickie, did you think the hawkish cut we got on the 18th, was that a policy error? i know you're bullish on growth and tech. if you look at the charts, you've seen software and the mag seven underperform the market. cybersecurity underperforming the market. just about everything is underperforming. so was the hawkish cut the policy error? >> i think it was. i saw no reason for another cut, and i think they needed to rip the band-aid off. we're seeing stability and employment, why is the fed continuing to cut? i thought the 50 basis cut earlier in the year unneeded. so i feel like they reacted too harshly. that's one reason we saw that huge selloff last friday when they said maybe we went too fast and the market had to strongly recalibrate, okay, now we're expecting one, maybe two cuts

next year, which can what you should have if you have a stable and growing economic policy. if we have a gdp growth situation and increased earnings, we shouldn't cut. we should only cut if inflation is going this the right direction or unemployment picks up, which is the bigger risk i see, especially if we see the d.o.g.e. committee go into full swing and we see the size of the government shrink as they react to that. >> so we'll get some answers on january 10th. let me ask you about two other areas. the rise in the dollar, dollar up more than 1% since the fed decision. also the rise in bond yields. does that make you concerned about q1 earnings with some of this pressure? >> yes, the u.s. drar going up is a huge concern, multinationals have a lot more exposure to that. pepsi has about 50% of their earnings are coming from outside

the u.s. so we think there's some risk. you could see some u.s. dollar drag. i think some of it will be explainable, that it won't be the knee jerk reaction, and investors may be able to take that with a grain of salt. on the yields front, i think we're okay unless we hit 5% on the ten-year, then i get a little more concerned what that does to the u.s. growth markets and longer duration outlook. in this area between 4.5 and 4.75, we've been here before, i'm not too concerned here. if we head to 5, then i get a little more concerned about the yield drag, absolutely. >> we're showing you the s&p 500 price target for next year, 7100, one of the more bullish outlooks i've seen. netflix, we'll talk about that later in the show. i want to get to your other one, blackstone up about 30% year-to-date. i want to ask, what do you like about this alternative player here? when i look at the valuation,

it's expensive at about 32 times. this market seems like it's priced to perfection and now we're seeing weakness due to elevated valuations. is there something about black stone that you like if >> i like blackstone because of their scale. they are heavy real estate. we're starting to actually see realizations pick up. barclays sat down with their ceo. they will get more ipos and more realizations, which will help the stock. but they continue to grow. they're over a trillion in assets, and the next frontier continues to be retail clients, and the hole day grail, which is a long game, but we see them pushing into that. their known scale, that will allow them to continue to grow their product. they were up $40 billion in assets just last quarter, and i

think they'll continue to grow and justify this multiple. so yes, is it cheap? absolutely not. but it's worth the premium here. look at the rise of private credit. if the yields continue to come down, you're getting less than money market. you might get pushed out next year, and you might be looking for alternative ways to generate with less volatility. you could be seeing more and more flows with the private credit sector. >> vickie, i have to ask you about the financial sector, another area you're bullish on. the bank policies institute suing the federal reserve over the annual stress test. this is obviously the big banks pushing back on policy. >> i think this -- i think every institution is going to be pushing back, after the chevron decision saying we want a

lighter regulatory touch. they did talk about they were asking for that, and the fed saying we are going to pos by getting public comment and said we want to get this lawsuit on the books. the fed was already moving in ways to appease this group, but the fed acknowledges after the chevron decision, regulatory agencies might have to have a lighter touch, which makes me very bullish. if we see less issues with stress tests and less issues with your balance sheet has to be exactly this, banks can lend more and make more monkey. some of this was a little bit the fed still wanted -- they still wanted it on the books, so they have this lawsuit ready to go. >> vickie green, thank you. great to see you. time to turn to retail and the consumer, of course, christmas is tomorrow. visa showing holiday retail spending increased almost 5%, despite a shorter shopping window between thanksgiving and class this year. but the outlook with consumer

confidence dropping and tariffs cited as one of the reasons why. that's why my next guest is watching this. for more impact and the names best positioned, let's bring in dana tel si. >> happy holidays. >> we talk about the retail sectors. are tariffs just bad for retail overall, or will some companies benefit? >> some of the companies make a lot of goods here in north america. bath and body works, 85% of the goods are made in north america, that's an opportunity for them. if you look at birkenstock, that will be fine for them. but there is no china like china, which is something all our companies are gravitating towards, and a lot of it is in the athletic area.

>> so if companies are looking to diversify their supply chain, does that mean that cost will be passed on to consumers? record high levels of credit card debt, $1.16 trillion. should we be higher about prices in the new year? >> if tariffs come and most of the retailers and brands have to pass on the price increases, that is a head wind. that's why you're continuing to see the value retailers, whether it's discounters like walmart, continue to gain share. and you're seeing more brands even sell through these value channels. >> one other question, this is a little bit in the weeds, i was talking to traders about this, about retail in particular. when it comes to tariffs, there's an exemption that basically leaves goods from companies like a temu untariffed. if that was taken away, it would hit those other names. are there some companies that would benefit if those fast

fashionings were just higher? >> when you think about fast fashion overall, take a look at the h&m, which making around 25% of their goods in china. the umbrella that you have with off price, is they're always priced lower than brand names. the other area that you have have, when you look t the apparel retailers, companies like amber ber com bee and fitc. >> i was just talking to a company today about customers pulling ahead of tariffs ahead of a possible port stroke and lunar new year is a bit earlier this year, so three big things coming to jam up the supply chain. is that going to raise the price of a lot of these things, higher margin, big-ticket items? for tvs or high-end retail, does that push up the price or do

retailers absorb that cross? >> it's always a little bit of absorbing the cost. we know from the tariffs last time, retailers passed on some of the costs. what's different this time is the agility that many of the retailers have in order to diversify and manage their cost structure, they're able to deal with it. not if you have china, mexico and canada. there's only so much wiggle room you have on where to source merchandise, except for companies like bath and body works and birkenstock. >> you said that you could see some gains in the year ahead. what sit about this eye glass retailer that has you so bullish? >> you take a look at their retail scores, they're crowded. you look at the expansion of their customer base, partnering with insurance companies, they're getting an increased customer base. you take a look at what they're adding on, the optometrists in their stores, and where do most

people buy glasses? adding contacts and progressives and the fact that some of the new stores are operating at higher sales capacities and higher sales plans than originally expected. and don't forget that you have their online business, too. so it's growing. you have the benefit post covid of now people coming back and buying glasses. and glasses aren't just for essentials, they're for fashion, too. i think they're winning in 2025. >> i don't wear glasses, but if you can get your eye exam there and buy glasses there, that leads to a lot of sales. really great to see you. have a great holiday. coming up on "the exchange," retail isn't the only group at stake. netflix is facing a make or break moment. the tyson-paul fight was a chcal train wreck. can netflix handle the nfl? that's coming up next.

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welcome back to "the exchange." tomorrow, netflix and the nfl are teaming up for the first time to stream nfl games. the streaming giant is bringing two christmas day games to subscribers as it looks to expand its push into live programming. julia has more on what to expect in today's "tech check." >> frank, netflix's estimated

$150 million deal for two nfl games is designed to be a win-win, giving netflix and the nfl massive global reach. netflix shares are up nearly 90% in the past year, in potential of the ad supported lower priced tier, and for thes are sports a drive viewership. penheimier estimates netflix is generating $150 million in ad revenue with the two games tomorrow. so oppenheimier says the games offer huge subscriber acquisition upside. if tomorrow's games work by reaching a global audience for the nfl, it sets the stage for the nfl's continued global expansion. the nfl plans a record eight international games next year, up from five this year, and the nfl considers as many as 16 international games in the future. and the nfl does have the

opportunity to renegotiate most of its contracts early after the 2028-2029 season. and net flix could be a natural pick for international gains. >> the reach is global, and you'll see global franchises, like "squid games" and other programming that's worked across the planet, giving us the opportunity for the first time to think of one partner and think globally at the same time. >> as for concerns about technical glitches in last month's mike tyson/jake paul fight, the nfl commissioner is confident in that netflix has the streaming capabilities and is in couch with netflix's ceo. >> thanks to julia for that. my next guest says shares have performed much better and growth is likely to low down. he has a neutral rating for the stock. the stock is trading at $930

right now. let's bring in barton. great to have you on board. >> happy holidays to you. >> $680 price target, the stock is trading at $930 right now. i don't imagine that your price target is hinging on the nfl game, but you're a little bearish on the company. so first question for you, do you think netflix can pull it off? >> look, i think that this is a really big test, and, look, they did really surprisingly well with the audience that they pulled in for this tyson/paul fight, over 100 million views globally. 35% share in primetime of 18 to 49. like half a super bowl but twice a regular season nfl game in this country. so the question is, can they elevate sports that they carry generally, like they did with this tyson fight? so if we see explosive viewership for the nfl games

tomorrow, you know, beyond what we could have seen on television, then yeah, you have to really rethink the story constructively. but if not, and i think my sense right now is it's more likely in this camp, it's a little bit below television. then we're left with the story that has multiple vectors of slowdown. last year, an explosive year in marmgen growth and subscriber year. the upcoming year likely to decelerate from that. >> didn't netflix kind of juice it a little bit? you have mariah carey and beyonce performing. doesn't that change it from a regular nfl game? i would imagine those two personalities alone will bring in a lot of viewers. so is this a make or break moment a lot of us are positioning it to be? >> you're right, if those celebrities make this a different game, sure. you know, and it's tbd. my sense right thousand now is t of people don't know that the

nfl is on netflix christmas day. so, we'll see if they can transition to the new distribution and the awareness. you know, we'll find out. this is a real moment for them. you know, if they can do it, if they can shatter the viewership expectations again, you know, then it's a different mouse trap and a better mouse trap for sports. that's a real challenge for tv and very constructive for netflix. >> barton, walk me through your price target. $680, people don't like technical glitches, so these one issue they have to face. but in general, they're bringing in a lot of really popular things like wrestling on board. what's going to be the stock to basically crater, go from $930 to $680? >> look, we're arguing that this should be a stock that trades at close to 30 pe, right now it's 46 pe. we think that earnings per share

growth is normalized in the 20% range, which is supportive of a little bit of a premium but not like what we're seeing right now. part is they have had a lot of subscriber growth. that has to come to an end. and part of it is that the ad wrap will take time to accelerate. they're also competing in a market that's really pivoting from brand towards performance. they're good in brand, they're evolving, basically emerging in performance. and there's some really good players out there that are better positioned than netflix for performance like amazon, where they can connect you to the checkout cart. i do think we're not going to see the same growth going forward, and that's an argument for the multiple to pull in. but the sports thing is a transformative test. if they can beat my expectations again, a lot will be anchored in sports near term. >> the broader streaming space, they say to watch every nfl

game, it would take seven different streaming services and cost you about $1,500 annually. so that kind of cost right there, there might be some people thinking maybe i only want five or six streaming services. who benefits as we see a push for sports, who benefits as we see this fragmentation in streaming, who gets curt? >> you know, look, over time sports will migrate to the strongest business platforms, and over time, that is going to be the tech giants. so it's going to be people like amazon. it's going to be people like alphabet, google, apple. netflix potential in that mix. disney, you know, potentially in that mix. but people have other businesses that they can attach sports to. i think the tv bundle is going to be diluted over time. this idea of a sports floor is going to be challenged as we see

things like the fifa world cup, women's world cup moving to netflix, the nba moving from turner to amazon. as you lose those big sports anchors, the tv bundle is going to be a source of economic value for the ig tech platforms. >> certainly, out of all these big streamers, somebody has to lose out. i'm not going to buy seven different services. i have the sunday ticket. i can see the games, i have netflix, but i'm not buying everything. >> no, you're not buying everything. some people will subscribe to more services perhaps than you. but clearly, scale matters, and clearly it's very challenging for those at the low end of the scale spectrum. so we wonder about, you know, some of the streamers attached to the big media conglomerates, like a paramount plus and others. and then at the other end of the spectrum, people like an amazon

seem really well positioned. you know, with so many things that they have going on to drive value through their video platform. >> barton crockett, your price target at netflix is $680. appreciate your time. coming up, setting the table for 2025. it's a mixed bag for restaurant stocks this year. chipotle bringing in the gawk, and others like starbucks not so much. "the exchange" will be right back.

>> no application fee if you apply by february 12th at university of maryland global campus, an accredited university that's transformed adult lives for 75 years. you're not waiting to win, you're ready to succeed again at umgc.edu. we're back to "the exchange." a quick check of the markets. the dow off of its highs, but still up about 200 points. we're seeing the s&p move up about three quarters of 1%. the nasdaq up almost 1%. the tech sector on pace to close at a new record today right here on christmas eve. tesla, a key climber today after that name, along with meta and broadcom, saw itself shrink in nasdaq 100 rebound. take a look at tesla shares, up over 4.5%. now let's get to our cnbc news update. >> hello, frank.

here's the news update at this hour. president-elect donald trump said today he will direct his justice department to vigorously pursue the death penalty when he assumes office on january 20th. the statement comes just one day after joe biden commuted the sentences of 37 out of the 39 federal death row inmates. the francis scott key bridge reconstruction will begin. that's according to the baltimore sun. the first steps in rebuilding the bridge comes about ten months after a container ship lost power and crashed into a supporting column, causing it to collapse. hundreds of visitors to the eiffel tower were evacuated today after a fire alarm malfunctioned on the elevator. the iconic landmark will open later today, but with limited access to the stop floors. officials say visitors were never in danger, despite initial

fears oh of a fire at the monument. frank, back to you. >> thank you very much. coming up here on "the exchange," transports having a rough end to the year, down around 10%, and nearly flat year-to-date. our next guest says the economic backdrop looks good. so will transports hit the ground running in 2025? that when "the exchange" returns.

welcome back to "the exchange." transports down 9% over the last month. there are potential strikes, tariffs, and the lunar new year, all on deck next month. but my next guest, bullish on the sector. for more on the catalysts and concerns for the transports in 2025 is don bratten. good to see you. >> good to see you, frank. >> i know you keep your ear to the streets at all time. i was talking to a supply chain company and they're seeing a pull forward of freight on the west coast where imports were up 19% for containers year over year on november, a lot due to strikes and riffs.

is that all due to tariffs or is something else behind that surge? again, 19% surge at the west coast ports in november. >> that certainly makes a nice narrative, but the truth, is we saw the full forward starting back in june and july when it was uncertain as to whether or not who was going to be the republican and democratic candidates, quick te frankly, m less who would be the winner. so i don't think it's that much as we would like to make it. far too often the truth is not as linear as our brains would like it to be. if you look at the third quarter volumes we saw coming in, so you know, august, september, october, volumes we saw coming into the ports, we saw as much as we saw at the previous peak back in 2022, or within 50,000

containers. i think that's more of us looking for an answer where it doesn't exist. >> fair enough. when it comes to transports, the theory that you can read the move of the transports to give you a read on the economy. transports are almost flat year to date. >> you know, in order to get the real value, you have to break the transports into people who move -- transports that move goods and transports that move people. transports that move people don't predict anything. it's not the traps transport cs themselves, what tells the futcher futch er is the goods that they're moving. if you move more goods, you see higher asset utilization and higher margin, which gives you higher earnings and a higher stock price. so it's the goods, it's the underlying goods flow that predicts what's going on this the economy, not the stock.

>> i'm looking at the chart of fedex. the stock popped big, and the next day it closed lower, and now down 1.5%. the rest of the companies this that ltl sector, all of them are trading lower. the freight spinoff was supposed to be good for the overall industry. what's going on? >> first of all, they think the spinoff is a good idea, but they announced it will take 18 months to spin it off, so nobody on wall street likes to wait 18 months for anything. second of all, if you spouted off the price where xpo is going to be, tell me what those stocks were two years ago? two years ago, it was a $45 stock and now it's $155. so we've come a long way. if you look at the volumes of inbound containers, if you look

at the volumes of asia pacific in particular, which tells us that the tech boom -- you get much more bullish about the overall economy. >> i know you're bullish about transports, but coming up in january, we have a couple of events that have the potential to create one of the biggest supply chain crises that we have seen since the pandemic. i don't think it will be anything like the pandemic ever again -- >> let's hope not. >> a potential strike on the east and gulf ports, tariffs starting on inauguration day, and lunar new year that starts on january 29th, normally there's a pull forward of freight about two weeks ahead of time. if you do the math, this can create a big log jam especially t the west coast ports. how should investors view the possibility of all this happening? >> let's walk through those one at a time. first of all, tariffs are terrible taxes. and i think trump understands that. but what i think he also

understands is that there's some -- a lot to be -- a lot of progress that could be made in trade agreements through posturing. let's face it, you go back to this, i deal with those who say we don't know what we're going to get. but we know what he's going to do. we've seen four years of this before. you know, people say oh, he's horrible, 50% tariffs. it's like, no, i believe that we're going to get those kinds of trade stopping tariffs when the mexicans finish building the wall that they're going to pay for. he makes these threats, but they're negotiations, they're not -- they're just simply negotiations. so before we say that's going to be the tariff we have to deal with, let's just see what happens, one. two, we have the timing of the chinese year that fluctuates back and forth every year.

what it ends up normally being, and in this case, a very early one, means we have more heavily weighted ferry worry is what it ends up being. and the strikes, well, we've already seen it shift back towards the west coast ports as a result of the threat. just in the last few months. i think that continues until the east coast labor is settled. it's like many things. this too will pass. but the overall volumes are up. >> all right. straightening people out with the sarcasm about the wall and an optimistic outlook. happy holidays. coming up on "the exchange," investor also be watching this yeek to -- week to see if a san claus rally comes about. we'll look at the individual names on the move.

welcome back to "the exchange." take a look at the markets.

we are at session highs right now. you can see the dow up over 250 points. the s&p also up over three quarters of 1%. the nasdaq, up over 1%. the russell up about a half a percent. back to the s&p, reclaiming that 6,000 level, the nasdaq just shy of 20-k. here are some movers. apple, hitting a new all-time high today, up 11% over the past month. and that market cap is getting closer and closer to $4 trillion. the number to watch, there $264.62. palantir, another stock with a strong run, up nearly 400% this year. look at that chart, up over 1.5%. but only three of the analysts covering the stock give it a buy or a strong buy rating. the average price target just about half of where the stock is right now. we're looking at bitcoin, rising today, bringing back the miners and other bitcoin related names.

all of them gaining. you see marathon up about 4.5%. riot is up over 6%. and if bitcoin isn't volatile enough, check out quantum computing stocks. you see that stock is up over 6.5%. the stock bouncing back bigtime after the post fed drop last week, up over, this is correct, 600% of the last month. also one of the top holdings in the qtum etf. coming up, some food fora b, 'll lk about this. "the exchange" coming up after the break.

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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of mcdonald's are up 12% over the next 25 months and may get bigger in 2025. joining me to discuss why he named cdonald's a top pick, andy barish. great to have you here.

mcdonald's, why is this value menu so important? we keep talking about the strong consumer and strong economy. why are cheaper menu items so important for this name? >> it goes back to the lower end consumer, kind of that under $50,000 a year household that does continue to struggle, and mcdonald's probably along with a lot of the other quick-service brands, overindexes to that lower end consumer. so giving that consumer reasons to come back, driving frequency, is of paramount importance in terms of regaining share and moving with some momentum into 2025. >> by the way, your price target for mcdonald's is $345. what about the rest of the restaurant space, what are you expecting when it comes to the broader restaurant space? you said the big are going to get bigger. does that mean these big-chain restaurants are going to be the

beneficiaries? >> it seems that way. that's the way '24 was. we think '25 will be a normal year. you're right, this is probably the first year in a couple where we're not debating about recession or not. the consumer overall does appear to be healthy. the holidays are rolling along very nicely. and we think it's going to be a year where same-store sales are up probably 2%, 3%, traffic in the industry is kind of flat to slightly negative, which is not that different than what we saw in the decade leading up to covid. and the promotional environment will continue to be fairly sharp, which tends to bode well for those that are everyday value leaders and can offer a great value, whether that's price, whether that's experience, or a combination of a number of factors. obviously, we mentioned mcdonald's. there are some other big companies that have been doing a good job. we're a cold on texas road

house, chipotle, that are driving same-store sales and traffic. one of the smaller growth companies is dutch bros in the coffee category that should have a nice 2025, as well. >> cheesecake you like, as well. first watch, as well. i want to get some of the names you don't like. one is starbucks. that seems contrarian. you like big chains. starbucks certainly a big chain with lot of stickiness. why are you down on this name? >> for sure. we're the only underperform on the stock, and it's nothing to do with brian nickel and the management change they made. it was just it added so much value to the stock at the time, that we thought the value of the equity had gotten way ahead of the turnarounds, which we believe will take some fairly

significant time and energy for brian, as he puts together his team and works into 2025 to stabilize the foundation and the culture of the business. so yes, a great brand that will come back again. we just think it will take a little bit longer and be a little bumpier than the market expected when the stock rebounded with the announcement of brian as the new ceo. >> i never really thought oil and coffee made a lot of sense, but that's just a side note. i want to get to one other area you're very bullish on is food distribution companies. not something we talk a lot about here on cnbc. quickly, what is your thesis, what is the top pick in that space? >> yeah, really covered by my colleague who has done the work on that category. the thesis is, even with negative traffic in the restaurant segment, the food distribution category is so fragmented that the big three of

cisco, performance food and u.s. food can continue to gain share and grow cases. also, the inflationary environment with low, single digit inflation is a perfect setup for their business models, and they're very stable business models with nice share opportunities. we like all three. cisco is the big cap name. u.s. food has been the best performer. so the focus probably going into 2025 to make up some ground. >> lookal those t those shares. great to have you. thank you very much. >> thanks. one more quick look at the markets before i let you go. markets very close to their session highs right now. that's going to do it for "the exchange," with only an hour left in this srtedranghoen tdi day. "closing bell" will start after this great. you have a great holiday. s, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future.

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>> university of maryland global campus allowed me to write my own story. they want you to succeed, and for me, it was a school of opportunity. i feel like i had a support system behind me within the school.

they provided me the opportunity to get my degree, as well as to take the full-time job. umgc put me on a path to be successful by giving me credit for my certifications and transferring my prior course credits. umgc supported me and allowed me to achieve my goals. [ music ] welcome to closing bell. i'm scott wapner at the u.s. stock exchange. a day when the so-called santa claus rally is supposed to begin. apparently it is. the yields are higher today. stocks are withstanding that for the moment. the stock on a tear lately. it needs to reach $264 to reach that milestone. we will follow that and have