vided me the opportunity to get my degree, as well as to take the full-time job. umgc put me on a path to be successful by giving me credit for my certifications and transferring my prior course credits. umgc supported me and allowed me to achieve my goals. [ music ] welcome to closing bell. i'm scott wapner at the u.s. stock exchange. a day when the so-called santa claus rally is supposed to begin. apparently it is. the yields are higher today. stocks are withstanding that for the moment. the stock on a tear lately. it needs to reach $264 to reach that milestone. we will follow that and have a

special report as well. we take a look at microsoft at the top of the screen. that takes us to the talk of the tape, the bull market which just keeps on chugging. how high can it run? let's ask dan green. welcome back. good to see you and happy holidays. you are pretty optimistic. >> listen. we had a terrific run all year. terrific run off the summer, of the october lows. in previous shows i talked about going out of the year somewhere around 6200. that presumably will not be the case. i'm a little surprised, but in the context of what happened it's not a big deal. so far it does not change my outlook. >> what did you think was going to happen that didn't. why do you think we will

disappoint your high expectations? >> it seems like a lot of this has to do with the fed meeting and adjustment in interest rates. >> the hawkish cut. >> right. i think the market would have known that to be the case and obviously it was not. futures pricing was already looking at two cuts instead of the four. the adjustments admittedly caught me by surprise. maybe the market is over doing it but it does appear that it was not as prepared as i thought. >> the backup in the rates is partly what we are talking about. the outlook is a little bit more hawkish. they will cut, but obviously less than we thought. the rates have back up significantly from september when they did the jumbo cut. if they are going up for the right reason is that okay? >> i think so.

that has been my position for many years. to boil it down to the core of the issue, it's not going up because there are some inflationary outbreak. there's obviously concern about incoming trump policies and whether that's inflationary. >> is it a separate conversation? that seems to be what the market and the fed are both trying to figure out. they do not really know what the impact of prospective tariffs will be. >> some did seem to incorporate assessing those policies.'s my view is two fold. one, taken on its own, tariffs are inflationary. however, there are other mechanisms in place. demand can shift which is presumably the goal. you can have a currency adjustment which perhaps

mitigates some of the effects on prices. i would also add when you look back, i'm a dead horse but when you look back, yes, goods prices adjusted but headline prices did not. i think too many people say there was no effect on prices because the headline number was down and it is true to say that corker's isis east doing so. >> but it is different. you are starting from a base of higher inflation. >> without a doubt. >> that is the bigger story anyway. >> i would also add the stated goal of incoming president trump is to lower oil prices. prices at the pump, gasoline prices the last i looked for some around three dollars a gallon. if you can somehow engender higher oil production either

domestically are overseas you can put some downward pressure on oil prices. i am not as universally negative as a lot of other people. >> you say the consumer is fine. you expect positive fundamentals to reassert themselves. the positive fundamentals be and what >> and how did they need to be reasserted? that is one of the reasons why we are rallying. we may have started another one as the santa claus rally is beginning. >> let's address those one by one. on the consumer side of things all of garden, longhorn steakhouse, chewy, they had pretty good things to say. that's the latest fundamental bottom-up look. we have tons of macro data. everybody talks about the retailers. the retailers in general i prefer with the respect of the consumer

combination. all of those are doing pretty well. the commentary continues to be pretty strong and we know what is going on with the labor market. i'm not at all worried about the consumer through the vantage pointe in which i view things. the narrative we have on the network and in these conversations is largely focused around the fed and yields. what i am arguing is when the calendar turns and we start getting additional data, those fundamentals i still perceive to be quite strong will be part of the narrative, not the dominant part of the narrative. we can move on from the conversation about hiking rate. >> the 40% chance he gives to the 10 year going to 5%. >> i would put a higher probability on the 10 year going 5% than i would on the fed hiking rates.

i have great respect for him personally and professionally but i'm not so sure. my point is that it has become the conversation as opposed to the fundamentals. >> what happens if the ten-year does rise. what if the probability comes to fruition? >> i think it will be tricky in the short term. obviously discussed >> the rates are up again today. >> we would need that extra decimal. the bias is clearly higher for yields. it feels like momentum wants to go higher. i'm not making that call. just saying that's what it feels like. we saw this once already when we whisper touched 5% a couple months ago. you can see we did take 5%. it was a little bit tricky. as soon as they started coming out

there highs that coincided with the bottom. i think it is not unlikely that something like that happens again. >> we are backed to a more top- heavy move. nasdaq is up 1%. we are looking at a record high for the tech space. a lot of these other names have been rallying as well. will that story change anytime soon? >> i go back and forth. at the beginning of the year i was one of the people that said no. that proved for much of the year not to be the case. they are looking for the non- mac seven type investments. we on a number of companies in energy and consumers, the crypto adjacent that are good fundamental stories doing quite well although you have to give credence to the fact that apple and brought calm, tesla and netflix, although netflix has consumer touch points as does, i guess both tesla and apple.

those mega cap names are doing phenomenally well. i know you have had conversations about the earnings growth really slowing down for those names and what that portends. my hope is that the broadening out that to some degree has happened continues because of the slowing earnings growth. i don't like grouping the 493 together because that is broad that i think there are clearly stories on the consumer side of things particular that consumers can find attractive even if the larger names continued to do well. >> apple is closing in on $4 trillion in market cap. it needs shareprice to get there. 264 and change is what we are talking about. steve joins us with a look at what is driving the recent rally. it has really taken off since we sat together at wwdc.

with the expectations around a.i. and the upgrade cycle which has yet to come to fruition which makes it all the more remarkable. >> let me give you the magic number to look out for. $264. let's call it $.63. the holidays are a moment for reflection so it's worth taking some time to look back at how apple started the year. it was vastly underperforming its peers. all of them, they had a.i. stories to tell investors even if they were not seeing sales yet. apple was real late to reveal its plans but all it had to do was show up to get the stock positive again for the year and on its way to the market cap we are talking about now. also helping, the record-

breaking buyback. now we see shares a 33% on the year. it has been quite a turnaround. i'm always looking at the next step and we have to see whether or not it can prove itself and drive sales growth. we have not seen much evidence of that yet. we talked to so many analysts who say it will be a lackluster season for the iphone. may be a little bit of growth, but we really won't know for sure until we get through the december quarter. something else i am watching that could impact the stock is president- elect trump's proposed tariffs sweeping across the board especially in china. apple would be one of the worst hit companies if that does actually happen. what case does tim cook make to trump to convince him he

deserves an exception? >> it has been really a leap of faith move in the stock looking forward to what might be and what hopefully will be rather than what is today. then we will have to wait and see. the first earnings report of 25 will be critical. >> i guarantee you when i sit down with tim cook and have a discussion, one of the things i will be asking is what evidence are you seeing of sales growth from artificial intelligence. we did not get a clear answer on that last earnings only because it only represented a week and change of iphone 16 sales. we will have that data now. we will have a full quarter to really see if the narrative is playing out or if we do see some sales growth just because people need new phones. we are in that cycle of people

hanging onto their phones. the last big one we saw was when 5g hit. >> thank you very much. it is great to see you both. happy holidays. >> good to see you. you do like tech. do you think it will have a great year? how would you characterize the returns you see? >> tech has had a great run. we do see that continuing. we like certain names. we are looking at taiwan semiconductor and palantir. tech has a hold on america with a.i. you can see from apple with the launch of the iphone 16 and the upgrade that they have. two kids are getting an iphone 16. if that is an indication of the broad market as far as iphone

16 growth, it is pretty good. >> adam, 33% year to date gain for nasdaq. what do you think is reasonable for next year? >> less than that, but it is hard to be directionally positive on the equity market and not market late tech. you have to on the big names. i don't make that big of a deal about apple being 4 trillion. it is up the same amount as the nasdaq and less than the rest of the mac seven. when i think matters is if you get any proof cases from big companies in the first half of the year that they are driving margin expansion by basically saying, we used analytics. we get that from a walmart or some big company you will get another big leg up in these tech stocks. >> as these stocks have moved up as we said at the outset the

market has gotten top-heavy. is also exposed breath in the market that has been terrible. we went through a 14 day stretch with more down stocks than up. the ones that were up were largely mega caps. they are so big you could carry the s&p and nasdaq by doing that. do you see it as weakness to think about. >> i am not concerned about that. if you look at the slight rotation there has been, look at the mac seven and there's only one name, nvidia, that is still in the top 10% of stock market growth. we to think there is going to be more broad market participation next year. as a result we are more equal waited than the large crowd -- large-cap growth rated. we've been seeing more

participation in the smaller and mid-cap. we are definitely more pro-mid- cap than we have been. >> we started by talking about the fed and the market uneasiness with what may happen next year. maybe we will have inflationary policies out of the do it illustration. you asked several questions heading into the new year. one of which, when is it time to fight the fed? why do you ask that and what do you think the answer will be? >> i think we learned toward the end of 2022 that you could say they are closer to being done hiking than starting and we could be bullish again. that's why we look back. the last trading days two years ago right now meta-and nvidia were both down 60%. the question will be, are we halfway done or a little bit

more that maybe we can't be as bullish. we think about all of the things that make us bullish. maybe that is a little more challenged because we are probably have way done with this interest-rate cycle. i think the first half of 2025 you will no longer be able to say the one year fed combination is a bullish point. i kind of disagree with how people describe it. 71 stocks in the s&p 500 up 40% or more. 119 arab 30% or more. i do not know if you can get a better stock environment than in 2024. i expect it will be tougher. >> i think adam is right. i think the concern somebody like i might have i might say,

the s&p is up 30%. only 119 stocks have outperformed. you expect that to be much more 250, 260, than just 119. i have done that work before. i do not think adam is wrong. i just think i agree with adam. there's a lot of variation. i would have expected more stocks to be up which speaks to the concentration of those large stocks and the work they are doing. >> you want to address that idea. i think we are finding out, in the process of dealing with that that the fed will be less accommodating in the new year. at what point is that a problem if at all? >> we don't need them to accommodate like we thought because the economy is more resilient than we expected.

>> i am sure adam agrees, narratively speaking the federal reserve does a lot of lifting. obviously some points are better than others, but we are expecting 9 to 15% earnings growth. >> i think north of 14% is the expectation. >> joe manchin yesterday whatever he was looking at the bloomberg consensus was that 12. it is something in that range. if the fed causes for the right reasons inflation is not going up, not going down per se. at baseline you are starting with an expectation of something like 10% next year assuming it does not contract. if you are going to make the argument you will not get 10% appreciation you have to explain why it is going to contract. of -- i think if it unfolds the

way i expected to, i do not think it is far-fetched to expect something like 6800 to 7000 next year. >> sondra, i don't feel like you are looking for great returns next year. mid-single digit, maybe low double digit. it is not relative to what we have done the past couple of years. 25 to 30% is great back to back years. >> we are looking for moderate growth. if profit margin expansion happens we are looking at higher double digits. it is really going to depend. to what everyone is saying about inflation and whatnot, i think we have yet to see the market really digest where inflation is going to be heading in 2025. there's a lot of questions

whether it be the trump trade and inflation taking up at the end of the day of the fed lowers interest rates by three times, and the market believes it is still trending down that will bode well for the market and for fixed income. you look at shelter costs coming down as a share of cpi. you look at wage growth going down and job growth cooling. you really do see all of the boxes that have to be ticked off for it to come down. that is happening. that could really bolster the market. >> adam, what is your best idea to finish this year? >> you are my idea.

i love you program. i think it is healthcare. >> are you upset because you are remote today? >> i really mean it. it's been a great year to be on your program. i think the answer to the question is healthcare. >> everybody is throwing up. >> i think the estimate achievability is above average. it's the one area of the market where everybody believes the trump policies will be immediately implemented and destroying earnings. nobody's really worried about other parts of the policy so it feels to me like it is negative. i think that theme works and if they show some, i love these businesses that have high revenue, $350 billion revenue

and they can show some margin. we do the outlook on january 6 so i will look forward to buttering you up and getting back on your program after that. >> we cannot wait. thank you. happy holidays, everybody. now for a look at the biggest names moving into this shorten traded close. >> reporter: american airlines recovering earlier losses after the faa issued a ground stop that was lifted this morning. they said in a statement it was due to a vendor technical issue but all flights have resumed and there were no cancellations related to the issue. shares of service moving higher after it was issued an outperform rating and a price target of $1200. they said the software platform deserves an elite valuation

given the rare blend of high revenue growth and free cash flow. >> thank you. we are keeping an eye on the banks today. some of the biggest banks are suing the fed over the stress test. >> the biggest banks are suing given that it violated the law. even though they are mandated by law, the way that they are created and judged along with the resulting decisions they make about bank capital levels they are part of the decisions to implement the law. they said they would disclose two years instead of one and allow public comment. the lobbying group made up of the biggest banks joined by others preserving its right

under the statute of limitations. the biggest story maybe this. groups are emboldened to challenge industry look regulations that overturned the chevron president which gave rulemaking preference to agencies. this could be good in the long run. the trouble for the stress test is they are a test. officials have worried about giving out the answers ahead of time figuring they will just gain the system. it's an interesting confluence. >> it seems to be more about the process. the way the process is handled than necessarily the result of the test. is that how you see this? >> it is, but give me the answers and i will ace the test every time. that goes back to dan when he had the job. it continued even through randy corals who is more sympathetic to the banks and it continues

under michael barr. i think the fed is going to do this. that means the stress test may be less meaningful but also less chaotic and might result in them needing less capital on hand which the banks argue are extremely high. >> thank you. we are just getting started. up next, doug clinton is back with the tech names he says could outperform in 2025. you might be surprised with who is not at the top of his list. you are live at the new york stock exchange. you are watching closing bell with the dow jones industrial average of 300 white's with about 30 to go.

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nasdaq is leading again today thanks to gains in apple and other leading caps. how will these due in 2025? let's talk to doug clinton. good to see you. >> merry christmas. >> merry christmas to you as well. we did tease the fact that the stock you think may not be at the very top of the list next year and it is nvidia. not that you don't like it. you just think others may have their moment. >> i do. i think if you look at the last two years it is all about the hyper- scalars spending billions of dollars to build out general-purpose a.i. compute. so that was them investing in the top-of-the-line ships to train the models they are building. i think as we go into 2025 it shifts. the reason for that is now that all of these companies built

out the general-purpose infrastructure, i think they will start to leverage a lot of the custom chips they have already been building. google, microsoft, amazon they all have their own that they have in developing. i think hey will be more aggressive deploying that and ultimately that is good for suppliers like broad, who works with most of those companies. it could be good for companies like marvel as well. >> even so, what happens at the moment nvidia fails to live up to the amazingly lofty expectations? >> i think if you look at the a.i. trade relative, people often make parallels. in this case you look back to the.com era. nvidia is the poster child today and it is generally a

barometer of how people are thinking about the trade. i think what we could see happen is at some point next year, nvidia is still atop holding for us but at some point you could see nvidia falter a little bit. some of these other names might pick up a little more momentum. the sentiment then could be that the a.i. trade is over. nvidia is done and can't keep going. i think that would be a mistake. it's not just about nvidia. it's about many other companies and we broad now and see more companies work like nvidia. >> to higher rates hurt the growth trade or do they just push people back to the biggest stocks like they are right now? >> i think it could push people back to the biggest stocks but also it will push them to some of the a.i. players that have the most growth potential. if you look back at that era

for most of the 90s the interest rates were 5 to 7%. well within where we are today. a little bit higher. there's no rule that says we need low interest rates to have technological innovation at a grand scale. if you look at what are the companies that can push through potentially higher rates are persistently higher rates than we have seen, it certainly could be the mega caps. i also think you could look at potentially some software names. snowflake is one example. they have talked more about an a.i. story. i think companies like that, we are on the software side. customers are starting to deploy us. they might have a case to work next year. >> we always identify you as a tech investor. i feel like 99% of our conversations are about that.

>> that is certainly where i spend most of my time. we do use a.i. to look much more broadly than just tech. one contrarian idea that a.i. has been on that has not worked out has been the energy trade. using our models to make predictions going into 2025 one prediction a.i. has made, you could see oil hit $100 a barrel. it is certainly contrary and if it happens. i think it probably works in a big way, but stocks like ge not dependent entirely on oil, but i think in terms of infrastructure green energy will continue to be a theme. they are tooted larger holdings currently. >> thanks again. we will see you soon. up next, breakout the neck brace.

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our next guest, bullish stocks in 2025. we kid, of course. it is true. you are up irma bull. unapologetically so. >> that is correct.

if you look at the market since world war ii, if you stayed in the market you would have been wrong 14% of the time. >> why do you think this will continue? >> we had the most widely anticipated recession that did not happen. it kind of made sense to a lot of people that it should happen because interest rates came up so much. i think the outlook remains pretty optimistic for the economy. it's already made a significant come back. it will grow 2 1/2 to 3% which

is grady -- gravy for the economy. it is great for corporate profitability and wages rising faster. >> you think the debate over higher interest rates are higher for longer is overrated? we don't even need the rate cuts that some suggest we can't live without. >> i think the economy has demonstrated that they may be normal. i recognize that the fed tighten dramatically over the past couple of years, that is from zero. i view that as the abnormality. i think the so-called neutral funds rate is just where we are right now. >> they do pressure the multiple.

there is an impact for higher interest rates. we have to continue to generate the offset interest rates to pressure the multiple making it hard for multiple expansion again. >> i did not want to see much more multiple expansion. i recommend that the bull market will be increasingly driven by earnings for the rest of the decade. i think the important point about multiples is they are impacted by interest rates and inflation rates. first and foremost, they are impacted by how long economic growth will last and how long earnings will grow. i think that's why we have such high multiples. markets will come around. i think between now and the end of the decade it will continue

to perform quite well. it will take a major increase to cause a reception -- recession and i don't see that. it would take a trade war and i don't think that's where this will wind up. >> obviously -- >> that is not my scenario. >> why does it have to be to that degree. if you have even modest trade wars you could have an impact on the overall economy. >> absolutely. i think that trump is using some of the heavier handed threats on tariffs to negotiate better deals with mexico, canada, china. i think the proposal to increase the tariff by 10 to 20% across the board is meant to raise some revenue to stop the deficit from expanding. that

could lead to a currency war or a trade war. if the tariffs are raised 15% and the dollar is already up a preset. if the dollar does not budge a bunch i think as he point out there's a lot of unknowns and volatility that could create some volatility in the short run. i think in the long run the economy is resilient. earnings will be $285 a share. i'm at the top end of the outlook for earnings. >> it has been a fun year. >> up next we track the biggest

movers into the closed today. >> more than 20 stocks for the russell 1000 have doubled. up next we have the key names to watch.

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>> reporter: the stocks on the 1000 have more than doubled this year. here are the top five. rising more than 760% this year. thanks to the mobile digital ad segment. next up is micro strategy jumping 470% getting a big following following trump's win in november. we have palantir up 370 % as a.i. defense sense it to record highs. next up is palantir . they restructured following banking concerns. they feel power demand driven by a.i. bidag y for netflix. they are streaming two nfl

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wrapping up a big quarter for discretionary. the winners and losers when we take you inside the markets own , next.

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right after the closing bell market zone. stocks leading at a critical time for retail. a big christmas day bet on football for netflix. edward jones top strategist, angela shares outlook into the new year. >> the timing is interesting in the holiday shopping season. discretionary stocks outperform and with names like starbucks an amazon both trading higher.. caesars and booking holdings posting gains at a time when market watchers are assessing the health of the u.s. consumer following the drop that we saw in consumer confidence data we saw yesterday. it is worth noting, deckers

outdoor up 86%. new data from visa showing up total retail spending this holiday season 70% of payments were made in store. on the outside lululemon down double- digit percentage points. >> it is also about netflix. this big christmas day football day. >> this offers a window into the company future. it just announced a deal for the next two fifa women's world cup. netflix shares are up 90% over the past year in part with optimism about the lower price subscription to your and sports driving engagement that attracts add dollars. oppenheimer and estimates they expect $250 million revenue for

tomorrow's games. they also offer subscriber acquisition upside. netflix helps bradley international audience ahead of the games next year up from five this year. the league is considering doubling that to 16 games in the future. sources say netflix would be a natural partner for those or other nfl rights assuming that the gain is streamed without a hitch. they say they are very confident about their technical capabilities. >> many will be watching. angela, good to see you. we have a nice little move before the christmas holiday. how is next year going to look >> >> investors are back in a festive mood. there's good reasons to be optimistic. of course, we have to keep expectations for returns materialistic. about half of the gain this year has been driven by

earnings growth. as we think about the year ahead, it will have to be earnings that do the heavy lifting. the outlook looks good on that front with potentially s&p earnings about 10%, or more than that. >> you think we will get to the broadening that summer clamoring for quickly? >> it will have a balance between the mega tack -- tech companies and small caps. favor u.s. domestic equities to believe that the broadening might finally be realized in 2025. earnings growth for the magnificent seven, we have more from the domestic so they are less exposed to the mines that we can see. also, it could benefit from

growth. >> we will leave it there. happy holidays to you, everybody. a green across the board on this trading day. the bell out. we are green across the board this holiday season. happy hanukkah. that is the end of regulation time. they are ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. the little st. nick foundation doing the honors at the nasdaq market site, as well. the market leaving a nice gift for bullish investors on this holiday season. the dow extending its winning streak to a fourth straight day. the s&p and nasdaq are higher for a third straight day in a war.