tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC December 26, 2024 5:00am-6:00am EST
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that's it for this episode of "millennial money." i'm ashton jackson, and for more great stories about work, money, and successful living, scan this qr code and head over to "make it" on cnbc.com. i'll see you next time for more "millennial money." it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5." big tech appears to be falling out of favor for 2025. ahead, the one sector looking to take its place. magnificent seven headwinds. it is day two of the santa claus rally. why history may not repeat itself this time. and new support from the u.s. eel and nippon steel.
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it is thursday, december 26th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning. thank you for being with us. i'm seema mody in for frank holland. let's see how the two-day rally has fueled stocks. futures are indicating a lower open across wall street. hope all of you had a good christmas and hanukkah. dow jones down 120 points. four ssions to go for the december trading. look at what is happening with yields. yields have been at the highest level since spring on the expectation that inflation may not come down as fast as initially expected. right now, the ten-year yield at
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4.6%. take a look at bitcoin holding below $100,000. currently at $95,274. down 4% at this hour. around the world we go. europe and most of asia closed for boxing day. japan and south korea are open for business. markets in hong kong on higher. turning back stateside as we close in on the end of year, we take the pulse of the investors to find out where they are looking to put their money to work in 2025. in the latest cnbc delivering alpha stock survey, we asked which asset classes they favor the most in of the new year. small caps and large cap tech and s&p 500 and equal weighted index at 14%. next on their shopping list are
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bitcoin, chinese and indian stocks and p investing in priv markets. for more, let's bring in ben emons and delano sapuro. gentlemen, great to see you. hope you both had a great holiday. now investors are trying to understand with four trading days left what they should be doing with their money. ben, how do you feel about small caps? >> seema, happy holidays. listen, a sector that will perform because if the trump administration comes in with everything they announced, you could expect the economy to pick up next year. i do think the economy will grow 4% or 5% change and that's why treasury yields are higher. that environment should drive small caps. i do think it's a good sector to be in. it's a favorable sector. i would agree with the survey.
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>> delano, if you had to pick where to put money, where would you lean? >> to start the year, you can be a bit heavily weighted to assessment. if you look how it performed with the big cap and large cap, it is under performing in some respects. i think there is value there. i think you are looking at breadth as less concentration risk as well if you pick up the names. also, becoming more profitable. if you look at the environment in the economy that is setting up for 2025, there will be more profitable companies and more value for investors. being weighted more heavily toward small caps is a good thing. >> delano, if we focus on tech, apple is record high at $4
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trillion market cap watch. what do you make for the tech sector? >> for the tech sector, it is getting to levels to make investors think before putting cash to work. there is more room to run to start 2025. there are differences and you feel it for investors and just in general on the macro level. i do think we have a position in tech. that's an area for investors to stay in. i think if we watch where valuations are and watch earnings, there might be opportunities for investors on pullbacks later in the year to get back into mega cap tech. >> ben, if we pivot to some of the other sectors that out perform in recent weeks and looking at how stocks performed on tuesday, consumer discretionary. tesla up 6%. starbucks. amazon. are investors positioning to bet on a stronger consumer going into 2025? >> i think we could say that,
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seema. as much as there are fears with tariffs, people see this as an opportunity and i don't know there would be more money coming into the united states with the stronger dollar or the economy and people are feeling up beat about the economy itself. i think those sectors as you mentioned, with consumer discretionary, relative to large cap, that is a big gap and people will buy more consumer discretionary. i think this is why that's happening. in addition, that's rotation ongoing. the rotation team will continue to have momentum in the first quarter. >> okay. rotation continues, the yields, ben, i know you are writing about this a lot. does that worry you? >> it is a big move we are
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witnessing. seema, it is aboutcipation of tr growth and somewhat on hold. also the fiscal deficit next year will have to be managed. they don't have to price in to the yield curve. it's a worry, but it's also a reflection of growth at the same time where we expect yields to go higher for me around 4.75%. >> delano, that was a concern with not as many rate cuts expected next year. what are you pricing in? >> i think, you know, that's the bear case if we see for us some spike in inflation data and a spike in employment data. i think that would change even as we saw we got a more hawkish fed that could become more hawkish if we see those things. i think our base case is we see
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momentum rise at the beginning of the year. the fed pointed to the strategy that's what we see going forward. inflation is stickier than most realize especially taking the cumulative look in the data. they will be persistent on that. we look at the base case for momentum. >> we'll leave the conversation there. delano and ben, great per perspective. a lot more coming up here on "worldwide exchange," including citi's top investing themes for 2025. why they are passing over the usual suspects in the red hot a.i. trade. first, we are talking software standouts in monster rallies to round out the year. what's to come under president-elect trump next? no love for cannabis stocks. why some are holding out. and later, the beyonce bowl
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patience with seven years running. we have brandon gomez on what's in store for the sector. brandon, good morning. >> good morning, seema. mj down 30% on pace for its seventh straight loss. the industry rallied on the promise of federal reclassification in the u.s. investors realized what that process would look like in 2025. let's start with the opportunities. federal reclassification is under way. trump showed support during the campaign and said he supports the safe banking act which would provide cannabis access and cash transactions. now, some challenges do remain. still only 24 states and d.c.
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have legalized recreational use. medical is legal in 40 stays.te. you have pam bondi who has historically opposed cannabis in florida. that is on this year's ballot and rfk jr is seen as a positive pick for hhs. seema, as it stands, 2025 could be the payoff that investors have been waiting for, but the timeline is determined by the incoming administration. >> brandon, has president-elect trump made any comments on cannabis in recent weeks or on the campaign trail to give us any indication where he stands on it? >> historically, he has said this should be left to the states. the states should be deciding whether or not to legalize. he did pivot during the campaign
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and say he would support research and federal reclassification of the substance. the thing that investors are wondering is was that a campaign promise pandering to investors. both came out at the same time. vp harris was leading the push at the dea. there are questions in this will be a priority within the first 100 days in office. >> i know the public market sentiment hasn't been very positive. what about the private markets? are we seeing private money going into the startups? consumers with some states legalizing it, it has had growing interest. >> there is opportunity for growth within the category. say there is reclassification in 2025 and that could be a great opportunity for private capital and to see that return on investment. you have been seeing a push in the private capital space. what they really want to see is
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37 states legalize wreckation r use. they consider it the same and same-sex marriage and trying to track it state by state and make sure there is a road mop ap ahe. >> i learned a lot. brandon, thank you. still on deck here on "worldwide exchange," apple's march to $4 trillion and what, if anything, is standing in its way. we will get you that trade when the show comesac bk. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪)
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semiconductor stocks may have started the tech rally in 2024, but software stocks leading the way in 2024. salesforce led the way with palantir. companies like service now and best serve clients with artificial intelligence needs like ibm have also played a role in the rebound. in fact, bank of america believes finding artificial intelligence in the space will prove to be a headwind for chip stocks in early 2025. other analysts point to tariffs under president-elect trump to make some vulnerable as others
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are less exposed. let's dus iscuss this with the york investment company. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> good to see you. we have seen the rotation play out from semiconductor to software. i'm curious if you are seeing that play out in the capital venture world and what's driving it? >> we are. a.i. is really kind of the next big 1.0 for the moment. it feels just like the late '90s of innovation that is happening and all of the investment across every sector in tech. a.i. is almost redefining, i would say, every vertical that we've seen. so, in short, we haven't seen anything like it. >> it's pretty incredible to watch and i think we are also looking forward to come january
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20th as the cabinet gets assembled under president donald trump. a number of silicon valley leaders who you know well, and a former partner who now will be an dviser on artificial intelligence policy, this is all seen, i know, from a market perspective as good for tech, but what policies are you expecting these individuals to fast track? >> in general, i think we respect all of these -- these folks tech perspective and america first perspective. with crypto and artificial intelligence, that is going to continue to grow at a blistering pace and accelerate. there will be less regulation of these industries, but also at the same time, an important
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playbook for founders. for example, in crypto, i think a lot of crypto founders and web founders really wanted to know what would be deemed legal and illegal. very simple and basic kind of tenents to build a very large business. up to this moment, there has been uncertainty. with these folks, that's one of the first things that they want to create is this playbook and these guardrails where big businesses can be built. that's more in web 3 than with a.i. with regards to a.i., i think we're going to see just incredible growth. you know, the u.s. really wanting to win the a.i. battle fueling american semiconductors for example all the way up, not
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just the foundational layer, but up to the llms and the applications. that frenzy will be, you know, a pretty dramatic change in culture and inspiration for american entrepreneurs. >> it is interesting the way you phrased it. what does it mean for valuations which i know have been moving higher in recent weeks? >> yeah, you know, you are definitely seeing some pretty large deals, notwithstanding openai's $150 billion post money valuation. you know, perplexity, which is an application for a.i. search recently raised at $9 billion public money. these valuations are obviously pretty high, but, you know, that being said, there's still a lot of promise these companies are going to grow into and surpass the valuations. so, you know, i think there is a
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little bit of a hype bubble, but i'm pretty positive that majority of the companies will grow and surpass, you know, these val uations today. >> thanks. makes sense. have a great day. let's get a check on more of the morning's other headlines with jessica llyeton. >> good morning. there is breaking news. gunshots at the phoenix airport overnight. police are investigating a shooting at sky harbor airport. they say the incident has been resolved. in word on any arrests, but a witness said she saw somebody badly injured. a shelter in place order has been lifted and the airplane returned to normal operations by this morning. in ukraine, christmas day
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darkened by new attacks by russia. barrage of missiles targeting the power grid leaving half a million people in the cold. russian ministry confirmed the attacks and said the objective was achieved. volodymyr zelenskyy called it inhumane. president biden told the pentagon to continue the surge of weapon deliveries to ukraine. president biden and the first lady called troops around the world. they thanked them for their sacrifice during the holiday season. seema, back to you and happy holidays. >> happy holidays. thank you, jessica. as we head to break, we want to take a moment to recognize what an amazing year 2024 was for cnbc and amazing work by our colleagues around the world. >> this is a place where news is broken. it is full of actionable and accessible ideas. >> we are live from paris,
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france. >> why are people so scared of a.i.? >> you thought this was andrew? it's me, david. >> this is where the rubber meets the road. >> cnbc has never been so busy. ♪ >> i go back to china. what are you doing now? just alibaba? >> everything. everything. >> this looks fake to me. >> what is your workout regimen? >> it is all about moving, moving, moving. >> we have takeoff. >> we are live from the new york stock exchange. >> the best days for stocks two years as president trump is electriced ed elected once again. >> bitcoin on a tear. ♪ we will be there for you ♪ >> we have a superstar in house. >> he just walked in the door. >> this is the greatest show on earth. >> don't ever give up because if you rest, you rust.
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we had our problems at prime the first year. we got it under control. i do know that everybody was complaining about the quality of the picture and buffering, et cetera, they will get it right by christmas day. the national football league will make sure they get it right by christmas day. >> on the nfl's future of streaming as it diversifies away
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from cable and network television. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. if yesterday's back-to-back games and beyonce was enough t get it over the streaming moment. let's look at how markets are trading. lower in pre-market trade following the rally we saw to start the week. the dow jones indicated lower by 219. nasdaq is down 136. s&p is lower by 31. take into account four sessions to go for december trading and the dow is still on pace for its worst month since april. also, we near the end of the fourth quarter and a quick sector check at the bottom of the list is materials on pace for its worst quarter since 2022 when it fell 16%. consumer discretionary up 20% and on pace for the best quarter
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since 2020. tesla playing a big role there. let's talk about yields and where interest rates are right now. we know yields have been climbing higher ever since the election. the ten-year yield is yielding 4.61%. let's talk about bitcoin hovering around $100,000. $95,406. down 4% at this hour. turning back to equities and souring for mega cap tech. according to the survey, just 23% say the magnificent seven will out performing other 493 s&p 500 stocks in 2025. that includes apple which is now closing in on a record $4 trillion market cap. right now standing at 3.89 trillion. joining me now is james cakmak at clockwise capital.
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netflix, meta and nvidia. james, i hear you. >> i just lost signal for a second. >> okay. james, do you hear me? >> yeah. can you hear me? >> thank you, james. we'll get your signal back. we will talk about the performance in apple. i'm curious if you think it can continue into 2025. >> yeah, i mean, apple is one of the companies in the world and it is knocking on the $4 trillion number. i think the momentum in the nasdaq should be able to help it cross over the line. when you do look at the valuation, you know, just a stand alone basis, it is an all-time high with growth rate having a question mark. you know, it's part of the mag seven and cross the $4 trillion
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mark. we're parking r dollars elsewhere like amazon and tesla and google. >> what makes you think those tech stocks will do well? the valuation or the products or innovation cycle or something to do with the incoming administration and the policies we're expecting? >> i think the administration does play a big role in it. obviously, deregulation is a big theme for 2025. namely for those companies, you know, they are the most well researched companies in the world. where it really comes down to is where is the under appreciation the greatest magnitude within the earnings and revenue nor 2025. we still think there is uncertainty as it relates to some of the margin assumptions and what not with the companies that can out perform the more muted assumptions that we think are the case. we think those companies are likely to do better on a
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relative basis and on the valuation wise, we think there may be some room for additional incremental valuation expansion in some of those cases. >> back to apple as to what helps that stock continue to move higher, is it the apple intelligence product? the new iphone expected in spring or something else? >> i think it's just continuing to be able to turn out iphones and devices at a healthy clip so long as the upgrade cycle continues to move forward. obviously, they are bringing a bigger upgrade potential versus the most recent couple of years because of that apple intelligence. so the world will and the consumers will likely shift in that direction. the main question is what pace does that happen? does it happen quickly over a couple of quarters or one other cycle to get everybody else on board? if you look at a two-year basis, we have more confidence than one. obviously, we can't buy every
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single stock in the market that has upside. it's just where is the greatest upside potential and we don't really think it's apple. you will get that headline. >> sticking to the mag seven, let's talk about nvidia and our friends on cnbc.com call remarkable influx of cash into that stock. retail investors have sent $30 billion of shares into nvidia making it the most bought in 2024 with spy and tesla in second and third. how much does this play into the out performance next year, james? >> i think retail is a massive factor. the single largest investing part of the market. i think dollars will continue to flow into the direction and a.i. is the poster child. they will continue to do well. that being said, we have -- you were just talking about before
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the segment the bond yields rising. there are question marks about the 60/40 portfolio of equities to bonds. think that i i think equities a better place to park your cash. you have morningstar coming out stating that. as more dollars move to equities and questions with fixed income, i think companies like nvidia will attract a ton of capital. >> you are not worried about the surge or excitement of broadcom over hyper scalers and building their own chips and those could one day rival nvidia? >> of course, i'm worried. part of the biggest contributor to the out performance. we were up 3% year to date in semis. nvidia at the top was the big driver of that. that being said, we dub 2024 as
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the year of cap ex and year of 2025 as cash flow as the supply and demand is coming into balance. nvidia is not immune to that as the other companies. we think the customers of the chips are actually going to fare better on the relative basis because of the boost in the cash flow because of the curtailment to spend relative to 2024. that's where we are leaning. with that being said, nvidia continues to be a must own in our view. it's just what is your aggregate weight in semis relative to 2024. we think it should be slightly less. >> what about netflix? holding on to the nearly 95% gain this year after the nfl streaming debut ing two back-to-back games are beyonce's halftime show for good measure. netflix signed on two more years
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for holiday games and the near trouble free game after the glitch filled mike tyson and jake paul fight. do you think netflix has redeemed itself? >> i think so. obviously, they will continue to get better. i never thought i would be saying on cnbc i agree with al michaels, but what he said just before the segment is exactly right. amazon figured it out. netflix will figure it out. these are just technology issues on the back end. they'll figure it out. we see strong upside potential for 2025. it remains a position and we capitalize on any goals in the maximum stock. >> you would hold this position knowing disney and others are pouring more money aggressively into their streaming platforms? >> yeah because in short they are better and better at
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producing content and more efficient manner than any of the other networks or studios. >> what is your balance? are you trimming positions or rotating away from the under performers this year? >> we have been trimming semis like we just talked about. as you look into 2025, really, the themes we're investing in is about decentralization of currency. we are leaning into crypto. decentralization of governments. the companies will benefit from deregulation from tesla on down. then a.i. you know, we think that companies that continue to create an increase agency for the end users from palantir on down are continuing to offer a lot of upside. you know, really about this market, we think the volatility in the market will only increase
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the magnitude of the moves. i don't know how many stocks we had in 2024 where we reached my price target in a matter of weeks. we're talking 20% to 50% moves. i think that is going to increasingly be the norm. one of the things we will tell clients you have a mag seven basket. you look at apple and reddit. companies like the upstart. these were huge winners. you will see more of that and a.i. is going to be a big driver of that. what we tell is you stay nimble and because these moves are going to come fast and bigger and if you can, you know, manage around that, we think there is a lot of money to be made and we're pretty bullish about '25. >> james, we'll check in with you soon. that was james cakmak. coming up, a new wave of
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citing the deal in washington. the move ing after the panel was deadlocked to approval the sale leaving the decision to president biden. both biden and president-elect trump said they are opposed to the deal. nippon steel's president telling supporters they signed a letter signed by mayors on social media. he hopes president biden will understand the value of the acquisition to the u.s. economy. electric vehicles are expected to out sell gas powered cars in china for the first time next year. that's well ahead of the west. the financial times citing estimates from investment banks saying domestic ev sales are expected to grow 20% to 12 million cars in 2025. sales of traditionally powered cars are forecast to drop by more than 10% next year.
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alibaba is close to a deal with south korea's emart could combine the assets. the transaction would value the business at $4 billion. last week, alibaba announced it would sell the chinese department store unit as it refocuses on its core ecommerce operations. >> silvana, thank you. ahead, the one word every investor has to hear today and the stock pick every investor needs to know. plus, looking for the scoop on what are the hottest tech gifts of 2024? steve kovach says look no further than t ahepp store. he is here to explain after this. f laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. empower. what's next.
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welcome back. what tech gadgets were folks opening up on christmas day? steve kovach looked at the most downloaded apps and the results and what it tells us about the consumer. >> seema, i do this every year. looking at the app store on christmas stay. the apple app store for the top three apps. these tell us two things. it is a good indication of what people are downloading when they activate a new iphone like social media apps. second is the gadgets they are getting under the tree that need
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a companion app to operate. it shows what is given on christmas and the velocity of the downloads of the apps look different on christmas day. the winner was meta for the third year in a row i have been tracking this. meta horizon app for the head sets. they are have been the winner t last few apps. meta view app is what you need to activate the ray ban glasses. let me give you other trends. lemon is out from tiktok. that was ranked as high as number two yesterday. of course, this is coming ahead of the january 19th deadline for the tiktok ban here in the united states. perhaps some kids getting new iphones and looking for an alternative app to give a try here. amazon alexa was number two in the app store. that means a lot of echos and
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other smart home appliances that work with alexa were under trees as well. another sign of amazon devices was the parent dashboard app. parents use on the iphones for controlling kids' devices. the kindle fire tablets. they sell for cheap and good to buy for your kids. in the fitness category. oura. the app you need for the oura ring. that was number 36. garmin was ahead of that at number 33. you might be asking why i'm focusing on the iphone and not android. it was mixed results in the google play store. the market share for new iphones is higher than android here in the united states. that's why we saw a pdf app at
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the top of the google play store. other than that, a lot of services that people download like whatsapp. one app, seema, move to i0 s for moving your data over from android to an iphone. that was in the top 40. >> what does that tell you, steve, as someone who tracks apple? a good sign for the company that more people are buying iphones and needing to get that app to transfer data from the android phone? >> it is a continuation of the trend we have known about for so long. in the united states here, it is apple and samsung dominating the market and apple is far and away the most used device here. when we talk about the slumping iphone sales, seema, it is coming from around the world as well. it tells you that android phones probably weren't as popular
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under the tree yesterday. >> the race continues. steve, love this list. it paints an interesting picture on consumers and what they're buying this holiday season. steve, thank you. >> thanks. coming up, citi's top investing themes for 2025. were they are passing over the usual suspects in the red hot a.i. trade. if you haven't already, follow our podcast. if you miss "worldwide exchange," check us out onpp ale or spotify or other podcast apps. we will be right back. there are some feelings you can get with any sportsbook.
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stocks indicated lower on this thursday. it is day two, though, of the santa claus rally period and stocks appearing to struggle across the 1% gains on christmas eve. joining me to look ahead to 2025 for themes for the new year is drew petit. drew, good morning. as we try to understand your investing playbook, is there one word that comes to mind? >> well, it's barbell. it doesn't really apply to my new year's resolution yet. it should be a resolution for your portfolio. growth and mega cap growth is the story of '23 and '24. we think you should barbell that
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with lower valuation names, especially on the cyclical and some of the defensives where fundamentals should improve. it's barbell for 2025. >> do you think investors are bullish about a.i. and the opportunities that these companies present? especially with the ongoing debate of the return of investment of a.i., include? . >> i think in pockets, yes. we started talking about a.i. differently. it wasn't about the back end or picks and shovels, it was diversifying exposure. i want names back in the value chain somewhere in the middle and somewhere more customer or end user facing. in pockets, yes, a.i. has gotten sentiment, but there are opportunities and we like the theme next year. >> if you were trying to play a.i., would you go software names? >> it's funny.
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overall, we still prefer semiconductors. our favorite semiconductor in our 30 recommended lift is marvell. i do think there is operating leverage here and these companies are monetizing a.i. growth. if you look at a name like marvell, it is custom a.i. chip business is probably going to grow 200% next year with 60% the following year tacked on on top of that. semiconductors, we like those more than software right now. >> woik oak what other sectors would you sell right now as you get did ready for the new year? >> we're lightening up on the consumer. that's an area we really liked for most of 2024. there are some pockets where you don't have as much interest rate sensitivity on the consumer side that get interesting. honestly, a little bit tangent to that is fintech and payment
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background. it's funny, we like to talk about a.i. top of the show and end of the show today, but fintech is a p theme and investors are just warming up. >> there could be policies coming in with the administration. robinhood and something around crypto that could be helpful there as well. would you be buying bitcoin alone as a stand alone asset or other ways to play the cryptocurrency? >> we are not thinking about that with fintech. yes, that's a big part of the story, but a lot of the traditional payment network. it's funny to say this, old school fintech. we like paypal and mastercard or hub spot. these names still have a lot of
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operating leverage. deregulation still helps them as well as they battle against traditional banks and that ecosystem. >> what keeps you up at night, drew? a drop in consumer data. rates may not come down as fast as initially expected next year and then tariffs, too, which i know some sectors are more vulnerable to. >> the two for us are rates and inflation. when we think about the cyclical themes e like for next year, a lot provide defense. we expect a volatile bull in 2025, but we're not all in on defensive themes here because we're worried about rate sensitivity longer on. we are looking for rate sensitive higher quality names that are not that rate sensitive. >> what's your top holding quickly going into 2025? >> i'll give you a couple of the mag seven.
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we do like amazon. we do like meta. we do like google. you can see our list. it's out there and published. ten themes driven by five pillars for the year ahead. >> mag seven it is. drew, thank you for your time. stocks indicated lower on this thursday. thank you for joining us today. "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. stock futures pointing to a lower open after markets kicked off the santa claus rally period with gains on tuesday. we will show you what is moving right now. that includes shares of apple. the company's market cap closing in now on $4 trillion, that is with a "t" folks. netflix featured debut with a star studded performance by beyonce and a smooth streaming experience for customers. some complaints about the mariah carey situation. we can talk about that later. it's thursday, december 26th.
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boxing day, 2024. "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. merry christmas. hanukkah. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with melissa lee. becky and joe are off. did you have a good holiday? >> i had an excellent christmas. >> presents you want to share? no, no good ones? >> for the children. lego sets galore. >> nothing that you got that you are very pleased with? no returns? >> while get into in a bit. >> it's
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