boxing day, 2024. "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. merry christmas. hanukkah. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with melissa lee. becky and joe are off. did you have a good holiday? >> i had an excellent christmas. >> presents you want to share? no, no good ones? >> for the children. lego sets galore. >> nothing that you got that you are very pleased with? no returns? >> while get into in a bit. >> it's three hours.

>> we have a lot of time to discuss this. look at equities. potential santa claus rally. we had a bit of a grinch coming early. stocks rising on tuesday in the holiday shortened trading session. dow up 390 points. s&p gaining 1.1%. nasdaq up 1.3%. tuesday marked the santa claus rally. it's what we call the period here from basically the last five trading days of the year. the first two in january since 1950, folks, the s&p 500 has generated 1.3% during this period. not a bad gamble. >> no. >> take a look at treasury yields right now. we will show you the ten-year and two-year. ten-year at 4.61. this came up at the christmakah.

>> bitcoin? had. >> the two-year did not come up. bitcoin at $95,482. the question in the family was is there a floor at $70,000? is this a great buy right now? >> is it based on a technical level? >> the children watch our -- the children watch the broadcast. mike novogratz talked about the down side at 70. we have chartist whose come in and talk about the 760 or 75 range. both of them also have a massive upside on the thing, too. the question is how market timing do you want to be? that was the question at the table. >> if you are a long term investor? >> if you are 14 years old -- what is the right thing to do? that's the question. >> i wouldn't worry about plus

or minus 20. >> you would go long? >> if you are 14? you are the longest you can be. >> you should be very long bitcoin. we had another person at the table who said it would go down to 5,000. ten years from now we'll all be laughing. i don't necessity 't know if yo what is happen in russia. how they are using bitcoin extensively at lengths i never appreciated. that may make it harder for president trump to really go all-in on bitcoin because the sovereignty of the dollar and what it means for the other countries. it's really interesting. >> there is the macro strategy element. you have to wonder how much of a floor the ro strategy is to issue new stock which they just filed to do. >> it is interesting one company could be the entire floor. >> huge market. it's a force and psychological.

all right. to netflix here. the debut of the nfl was mostly glitch free aside from the microphone at the pre-game show. the pair of games was broadcasted on the streaming service without a hitch. chiefs defeated the steelers 29-10. bee i don't beyonce's halftime show as she rode out on a white horse and debuted shaboozey there as well. netflix will have the next two years on christmas day. of course, there were concerns about the technical side of things in terms of netflix to offer live programming because of the tyson and jake paul fight with lots of glitches. we expected them to fix it. >> who made more money? nfl or beyonce?

netflix spent $150 million over three years. we don't know how much beyonce got. >> no. >> do we think beyonce got more than the nfl on the per game basis? they are getting two games. six games for $150 million. >> right. >> that's what we're talking about here. so, you want to call it for even math $40 million a game. do we think she got more than $40 million? >> you think so. >> i don't know. >> i don't know either. >> i don't think she did it for less than 20. >> i don't know what beyonce gets paid. i have no sense of that. >> she doesn't do weddings and bar mitzvahs. >> not the ones we are invited to, at least. the advertising for netflix. that's got to be huge. in over three years, this is an early product to add to your

model. over the course of three years with the big events. >> i'm reevaluating. maybe she got 20. china central bank refraining from cutting interest rates and keeping the option on the table ahead of the possible escalation of trade tensions with the u.s. next year. most economists expected that move. in the meantime, markets are pricing in a sizeable rate cuts which may have driven chinese bonds to record lows this month. separately, china abruptly ousted two lawmakers from the national parliament. it happened yesterday on christmas day. they were suspected of violating law and discipline. chinese officials had been conducting an anti-corruption operation in the military. and the nikkei with the reports of $735 billion budget

for the fiscal year. the report says it will include increased social security and debt service expenses. the governor of japan's central bank said yesterday the economy will move closer to sustainable and stable 2% inflation next year. he avoided gaining a clear signal that japan might raise interest rates next month. it was widely expected they would in december. now it is more expected that cut will come in january. shares of japan airlines briefly dipped overnight before recovering. the company resolved a system malfunction caused by a cyber attack. the airline now says systems have been restored without any leakage of customer data and no damage from that virus. meantime, we have an update on that american airlines outage on christmas eve. it happened while we were on the broadcast. a lot of folks worried about what would happen. the network hardware issue affected operating systems by a

vendor that maintains the flight operation systems. it was just an hour, but a long hour if you were sitting in that airport worried that it might turn into a 24-hour situation. 1,000 flights had been delayed tuesday. that was more than 40% of its schedule and 13 of american main line flights were canceled. although regional subsidy, i wish they were subsidsubsidies. the subsidiary had 16 cancellations. also, a disturbing story from hawaii. authorities said a dead body discovered in the wheel well of the united airlines flight landed in maui on tuesday. the maui police investigating have not identified the person. united airlines said the body was found in a compartment housing the landing gear. the area that is accessible from the outside. the only way to get there is from the outside of the

aircraft. unclear how or when the person accessed the wheel well. was it somebody -- a stowaway? i don't think anybody knows. >> having fun and got trapped? >> did it just happen? that was the other thing. >> how long the body was in there. >> that was the suggestion maybe -- one suggestion it didn't just happen. >> a dead body was put in the wheel well? >> maybe this person had been here for a long time.forensics. >> are you sure? >> do you watch svu? >> csi. >> you know they can tell. on to serious news here. at least 38 people were killed when a passenger p jet headed for russia crashed in azerbaijan. as many as 29 passengers survived. the plane may have been taken down by a flock of birds.

aviation experts and ukraine officials said the crash was likely caused by russian anti- anti-aircraft fire. russia has been using air defense systems to shoot down drones. the investigation into the crash is under way right now. we should tell you russia launched an attack on the ukraine energy infrastructure leaving many without heat or power. in a briefing, the ukraine official said russia used long-range weapons and drones to strike facilities. president biden described it as outrageous attack to deprive ukrainians of heat and electricity in the winter. he told the defense department to continue a surge of weapon deliveries to ukraine. coming up, we are on $4 trillion watch for apple's market cap. we will show you how close the company is to that milesto.ne "squawk box" will be right back. is saying goodbye! patrick! patrick!

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here at this point? >> christmas -- >> i'm sorry. new year's. thank you. it's early in the morning. it's early. >> it's 6:14 as our viewers know. >> yeah. >> i don't know. it depends whether the santa claus rally really happens in full force. we already had such a rally into the santa claus rally period. who knows if the santa claus rally will be in full force. >> we're at 3.9. exactly 3.9. 3.90. i was trying to think a percentage bases to think what we need to move to get there. >> it's a lot of market cap to add. unknown news. in a news vacuum. now to the results of the cnbc delivering alpha stock survey. 77% of the market participants surveyed expect the other 493 s&p 500 stocks to do better than the magnificent seven stocks.

joining us now is michael zihn. michael, great to have you with us. i think we have your audio, but we will proceed. >> okay. >> there you go. in 2025, it seems like you are a little bit cautious. why? >> well, i'm a little cautious just because i think there's a little bit of the hidden selloff here that the index is not revealing. the a.i. winners and big cap name you mentioned have been a great success in '24. beneath the surface, the average stock is kind of languishing a little bit. ex-pectations are high for earnings season. we're priced at, you know, 23 or 24 times forward earnings. we really have to deliver. we are betting n the fed to

ease. we have a monkey wreng ch in there. that could hamper the tariffs agenda. there are risks out there, but, you know, there are benefits, too. the economy is growing well. we are expecting the a.i. trend to continue. so, you know, it's not all bad, but i think it is important to recognize how narrow the breadth of this market has been. we have been making new highs on the s&p and we're making new lows for the year as far as market breadth. the average stock is well below its 50-day moving average. when you look at that set up in the past, where you are making new highs in the market, it's not uncommon for a little pullback to follow. the santa claus rally may be alive and well. we'll see. it could be tough sledding. it's a sleepy time of year. the institutions aren't really

trading. it's a little bit more retail driven. what happens at the end of the year is not necessarily an indicator for how january and february go. so, we're still constructive on next year, but i would say we are a little bit more encouraging patience and to see how the first month or so plays out before diving completely back into the pool. >> going back into the market concentration, michael, so many people cited that as problem hat ick hatic. it just goes to show the power of the mag seven or the performance of the entire index. if it has been that way for a while, why would that break now and why is that such a bad thing given so much money is going overall to indexing and etfs and it's the biggest weight? money into the etfs and these

are heavily waited to the seven stocks. >> absolutely. it has been the trend for a while and there is no indication the trend is changing. i think of tech as an invasive species and the rest of the market is addressable market to gobble up. i think the danger is just when you look at the earnings expectations that are priced in for the companies now, you are really at massive valuations and massive earning expectation. if the companies don't substantially beat and raise for the first quarter, you've got this possibility of more severe pullbacks in the names. i think the positive silver lining is if you look within tech and you look at some of the chip names for example that are not perceived to be a.i. winners, there may be some value there, you know? it may just be time for a little bit of a broadening to take a

look at some of the relative losers of '24 and look and see if those names are bottoming instead of continuing to pile everything in mag seven and mag seven related. that mag seven trend is super strong. there is no indication that's breaking. as we come into earnings season and that's accompanied with the inflation report at same time. we should just realize we're priced with optimism here. >> right. it is interesting you mentioned the semiconductor stocks. that is the sector you are seeing the most dispersions. investors are looking at autos which had problems to industrial which had problems. some of them are just structurally not flawed, but troubled companies. is that where you see val?

some are facing secular issues like pc demand low. >> pc demand and auto demand. some of the more traditional industries which tend to grow, but, you know, they are not growing exponentially. they are growing in the 2% to 3% range. if you look at value comparison with the a.i. winners and tech and semis and a.i. non winners, that value differential is huge. technically, you are seeing nacent value. they are not perceived to be a.i. winners. i think that is an interesting area of the market. ubs put out neat research highlighting those companies this year. that's one area to look to try to broaden the portfolio a little bit beyond the usual

suspects. >> michael, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thank you. coming up, the founder of sam adams brewery's succession plan. we'll have details after the break. and the raising the recall level on costco ggs. we'll talk about that as "squawk box" comes right back.

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succession plan. for years, his plan was quote don't die. not a bad plan. his wife cynthia fisher will inherit control of the company. she has been married to koch for 30 years. koch says he has no plan to he retire soon. the suck suggestion succession plan of sorts. >> somebody else is taking over. somebody happens to be his wife. >> that's interesting for a public company. right? >> yeah. >> unusual. >> unusual. coming up on the other side, we will talk retail trends with the cofounder of ministry of supply. issues of tariffs and other s we will discuss with him. as we head to break, the best and worst s of

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good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square. merry christmas and hanukkah. look at futures right now. we have some red on the screen. dow off 238 appointments. nasdaq down 110 appointments. the santa claus rally which seemed like it was beginning is not really beginning. >> don't be a grinch. he could still come. the fda issued the recall to the highest recall. in november, the agency announced 11,000 units of organic 24-count eggs sold under kirkland brand has been recalled due to salmonella exposure.

the use of the product could cause serious adverse consequences or death. it was sold in alabama, georgia and tennessee beginning on november 22nd. as we move into 2025, the u.s. labor market offering a mixed picture with job security strong and hiring rates slowing and more companies require employees to return to office. we have jason greer. good morning to you. happy holidays, sir. >> great to see you. >> we talked about the return to office. when will we top talking about return to office? when will that be over? >> you and i have been talk about it for the better part of two years. i think we will continue to talk about it going into 2025. you have president-elect trump who said he will force federal employees go back to work. i wonder if that is the trend for private industry as well.

who knows at this point. >> if were you to look across the country, what do you think this -- how many days in the white collar world are actually working in an office today? >> basically about four days a week. that's generally what i'm seeing in terms of nts in the industry. i really think -- >> oh, goodness. oh, goodness. he has not lost his job, folks. >> if he were in studio -- >> we would not have this problem. >> that's right. >> that is actually possibly true. it's interesting we say four days. the reason i was asking the question in a way is because it does feel like we are -- >> back. >> back. most offices in new york are four-to-five days. the truth is that i think even the five-day universe, pre-pan pre-pandemic, people traveled. this idea of when that, you know, five days is five days. in new york, at a bank, it was

seven days. >> because you are working from home on a weekend. >> jason, you're back with us? >> my pologies. >> you think the four days is what the world looks like today and you think we're moving toward five? >> i think we are moving toward five because there is a push to five. two years ago, the push was we need to keep employees employed. we need to make sure they are not job shopping. we saw a hybrid model. it dep ends on the industry. more employers are going to the four-day workweek to see if the model works and potentially five days if that's what's necessary. >> has the pendulum, jason, swung back to command workers back to the office? at this point in terms of the labor market's cycle, people are worried about their jobs, right? they want to keep their jobs and

they want to make the same amount of money and not sacrifice anything. something may give and they have to go back to the office. >> i think you said it perfectly when you said the pendulum switching back to employers. the survey data bears this out. a number of employees are frustrated with their current position, but scared to jump into the job market when you consider the vast employees will not move into a new job unless they are making $80,000 or more. you have employees saying the glory days of making $20,000 or more is done. i'll stay here and if my employer forces me back to worse, i'll do so begrudgingly. >> what does that tell you about the labor market in general that people are worried to go back to the job market that they think they may not make more money if they jump jobs in terms of what the fed is looking at in the employment picture overall? >> great question.

i think what it is saying is employees are scared. i said the economy needs a better pr agency because the economy is doing relatively well. you have a number of job openings available, but from the employees, the thinking is i'm scared and if i leave my job, and jump out there, i'll find a job that won't pay me as much. the thinking is i'll stay with i am because if i leave, i don't know what's available out there. >> jason, we used to talk about the housing market and mobility or lack of bility that some people had insofar as the mortgage was under water or they couldn't sell for a profit or move. do you think any of that is changing? >> i think so. again, it's the psyche of people these days. the psyche of people is america just in terms of the overall shift is doom and gloom.

i think i have a friend of mine who just moved to california. he said that the thing he was not prepared for is the fact in making that move, he got laid off three months later for a new job. what people are saying is i would love to more ve across country, i'm scared the opportunity will dry up and i'm stuck with a mortgage. >> jason, we will leave the conversation there. happy holidays. >> great seeing you. thank you. >> you bet. when we come back, we will talk retail trends and impact of tariffs with the ceo of clothing company ministry of supply. guys, let me say, i wear some of this stuff. this is actually a very cool company. i think he's been on before. >> the casual clothes? >> they do business clothes that happen to be comfortable. shockingly. they had to move some of the places where they manufacture it because of the tariffs coming. we'll get into all. that. reminder, you can get the

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welcome back to "swook." i want to turn back to the consumer and the proposed tariffs to consumers. we have aman adani. the cofounder of the ministry of supply. it specializes in work leisure in men and women.

not work from home, but work at office clothes. >> that's right. if greer consulting is right, we need more comfortable dress clothes. >> just so we know, are you sporting some of this stuff? >> always. you can't catch me outside. if i'm awake, it's ministry of supply. >> i made a crucial statement. i thought i would care them today. they are stretchy. what's great with it, it's almost like wearing athletic wear, but it looks like business wear. oh, they are showing pictures of it. >> that looks nice. >> i should have worn it. the collar for me -- aman, we should discuss it. it's not tv friendly, the collar, with a tie. that's a different discussion. >> with a tie. fair yuf. >> let's talk about the tariff piece. you guys have been thinking about this for a long time and addressed some of it already.

>> that's right. we had a dry run, right? a lot of this started happening in 2018 and 2019 we saw this coming. again, if you think about the generous introduction to our company aside from the feedback, of course. we make performance dress clothes for business class. everything we make is backed by patented and partnerships with nasa and m.i.t. and electrically heated jackets. we can't just pick up and move overnight the equipment and know how to ake the clothes we make. it has taken us a decade of r&d in massachusetts in our labs. we have seen this come before and we are preparing for it to come again. it's not so easy to pick up and move. it takes years of planning and adjustments to all of that r&d. >> where are most of your garments are manufactured? >> china and indonesia and here

in the u.s. and in honduras. we are open to new factories in hong kong. we have wonderful partners with multiple locations across multiple locations which makes moving easier. >> what's the switching cost and switching time? >> the switching cost in many cases and it answers both questions, in some cases, impossible. the ip we build is often in conjunction with the factories. these are people specializing in fabric technology. you want a shirt. you shake it out and wear it on tv. if you want to do that, you can't just pick up and move. in some cases, it means starting from scratch. in some cases, it means completely. in that case, you are talking a two-year timeline from the customer concept to door step. minimum two years.

>> what would it take for you to move back to the u.s.? i'm curious because there is all this talk of reshoring. how much more would your garments cost if you move back here? >> interesting. i think that question can be posed to two companies. companies making commodities where the infrastructure exists and it is a pricing question. in that case, it's probably just a purely financial question. in the case of a lot of direct-to-consumer brands, including ours, the infrastructure simply doesn't exist today. the first step would be to build the layer of technology and infrastructure behind all the clothing we make. it isn't just a question would we need to raise prices x to move back to the u.s.? there is a bigger existential question of how can we do that? we vetted and we visited with them and had dinner every

quarter every year. it is a years long relationship to make sure this was come. it is not as simple as saying a 5% or 10% lift. for the commodity good. >> if i told you, i'm just curious, i'm playing out the potential america first president-elect trump's administration promise. if he said he would either lower taxing because you were going to manufacture in the u.s. by 10%, i don't know, i'm making up the number or he was going to implement tariffs rather on some of the other things and you start to put in the shipping costs and maybe some of the back and forth you have dinner with these folks, that means you are getting on a plane to go to dinner. hope that is not taking up too much of the company revenue. at what point does it make sense to manufacture in the u.s. or is it impossible? >> no, in some cases, the u.s.

when we have done production in the u.s., it is cheaper. it really is something i keep coming back to. it is an assumption that the u.s. is a cost question. our number one product a couple years ago was 3d printed in los angeles. we were making clothes that were completely from yarn directly to garment. no waste. incredible technology. it was our number one selling product that year. we do have u.s. production. we do support. we love u.s. production. we are a massachusetts based company. in many cases, it's not just a question of dollars. it's a question of how do we bring that here and then in a lot of cases continuing to support stuff like 3d printing and skilled labor and manufacturing that we want to bring back onshore. dpl >> that is a good question. do we have the skilled labor? >> we do. we are in one of the greatest technology eras we'll ever see

here in the u.s. we have a ton of wonderful talent that can do this. the question is is it our top priority? is that where we want to invest our next dollar? i think that is beyond my paycheck. >> i don't think it is beyond your paycheck. >> thank you for having me on. >> i wish i was wearing it so you could see. it looks like -- it really does look like business clothing. if you travel, what he said, you can put it up in a ball. he is very wrinkle free. >> considering. >> it is like wearing -- he won't like it. it is like wearing lululemon clothes, but comfortable. like yoga clothes. >> wear it tomorrow. >> i'll show you. coming up, which dgets won christmas this year? that's next.

and 71% of surveyed said they pick software stocks for 2025. "squawk box" is coming right back.

welcome back to "squawk box." what tech gadgets were folks opening up? steve kovach taking a closer look at the most downloaded apps. we may have a better sense if the sorkins were in tune. >> i'm curious what your tree looked like yesterday. i do this every year. it tells us which companies scored the best on christmas. you check the apple store

rankings for the top three apps. it tells us a good indication of what people are downloading when they get a new iphone and download the standard apps. facebook and tiktok. what have you. second, the gadgets and accessories. it shows us what you get on christmas and the rankings are different. meta, we are showing you right now. meta horizon app for the head sets. they have been the winner the last few years. i have been tracking this. meta view app for the ray ban smart glasses. andrew, those were in the top 40. lemon eight. another social media app from tiktok. it was number two yesterday. a lot of people got new iphones and downloaded this alternative

from tiktok. >> tell us about that. before you go to the rest, tell us about it. >> it is called l-e-m-o-n the number 8. it is a mix of youtube and tiktok. >> where are the servers based? >> i assume the same as tiktok. >> on january 19th, that is on the list? >> i feel it has to be on the list. >> it has to be in the u.s. >> it is owned by tiktok. presumably, maybe kids are looking for alternatives. >> get in while you can. >> you might as well download it now. it's going to be gone. amazon is another big winner. alexa. that was number two by the late evening yesterday. we saw a lot of echos and other smart home appliances under the christmas tree. another sign amazon devices were selling well. the parent dashboard app from amazon. i read this as likely the kindle

fire tablets sell cheap. good when you don't want to spend the money on the ipad. andrew, the oura ring app. that was 36. garmin was ahead of them at 33. they make the gps smart watches. i don't know how many smart watches were sold. the app is already on the phone. what about android? android store looked weird yesterday. a pdf app was at the top of the list. other than that, services like whatsapp and paypal trending. one thing we noticed is move to i0s. app for moving data from your android to iphone. that, i read, as an indication that maybe people were switching over the holiday as well. one thing that uck out to me.

i know you have children and i don't. tonies. do you know? >> yes. >> you have young kids. i never heard of this. >> it's a box. >> a speaker box. it is big on tiktok. take a character and put it on top. remember teddy ruxpin in the '80s? >> i know about them. >> you have the paw patrol tony and it tells a story or song. >> your kids like this? >> we did not get it this christmas. we almost did. it's really interesting. you don't have to be hooked up to the internet and the kids can operate themselves. for the devices, it is mom, how do you do this? >> you buy the characters. that's how they get you. they tell little stories and take it off. it looks cute. never heard of it until yesterday. i had to research this one. sel. >> we're a roblox family.

a lot of children asking for robux this year. >> asking for money. >> in gaming -- >> buy digital clothes. >> the nintendo switch parent control app was up there as well. >> by the way, the parental controls on roblox is implemented. >> good. they have a lot of work to do. >> they were working on it. the new set up seems to be better. >> way better. >> steve, thank you. >> you bet. coming up, we talk about the outlook for companies that make blockbuster weight close drugs. eli liy llis up 35% and novo nordisk is down 15%. "squawk box" will be right back.

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it's 7:00 a.m. optsds on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin with melissa lee, a day after christmas and hanukkah. joe and becky are off today. we have a whole bunch of big stories to tell you about, among them, netflix kicking off its nfl coverage mostly glitch-free aside from a microphone issue te beginning of the pregame show. the pair of games were streamed without a hitch, beyonce as well. we haven't discussed mariah carey at all. an update on american airlines outage. a network hardware affected systems, a vendor that maintains' american flight operating system. the airline resumed flights about an hour after that hour-long ground stop. about 1,000 flights were delayed on tuesday as a result of all

this. and finding an affordable car could be harder if president-elect trump moves ahead with his threat to impose tariffs on canada and mexico. it's a fascinating story and worth reading in the "wall street journal" saying nearly a third of all vehicles priced below $30,000 are built in mexico including the nissan sentra and other popular models. any tariff related costs are likely to be passed on to consumers. >> $3,000 the estimate per car. let's check on futures. santa claus rally not happening at least not this morning although it's a little too early to say. the s&p looking to open lower by 25 points. dow looking to lose 219. nasdaq looking down about 88 at the open. let's get to seema moody with a look at the premarket movers. >> good morning. let's take a look at shares of apple moving lower in premarket trade down just fractionally as the megacap attempts to close in on a $4 trillion market cap. apple holding its own against

video and microsoft as the world's most valuable company on hopes that this ai momentum will rejuvenate sluggish iphone sales. wedbush security analyst rolling the ai rollout will push sales further moving into the holiday season. the stock is currently trading around $257 a share. let's talk about new data on nvidia which shows retail traders are putting nearly $30 billion into the chipmaker this year surgingon ai wave that's captivated wall street. net inflows jumping over nine times since 2001. another benchmark in nvidia surpassing this year. it's been volatile but the stock is up about 180% in 2024. finally we'll end with shares of alibaba moving in premarket right now. the chinese tech giant is closing in on a deal with south korea's emart to combine their online shopping assets. bloomberg is reporting that the

transaction would value the new businesses around $4 billion and it's worth noting alibaba last week announced it would sell its chinese department store unit as it refocuses on its core e-commerce operations. shares of e-mart jumping about 5% on this news. >> thank you. seema moody. now for the latest in weight loss drug news and the outlook for glp-1 drugs in 2025. barclays head of the european research. thanks for joining us. we' appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> all year long it's been an interesting divergence from the value of eli lilly and novo nordisk and in the recent days that was really driven home by the disappointing cagrisema news from novo nordisk. i'm wondering where you think that this divergence is warranted or do you think investors have discounted novo enough on the cagrisema news? >> yeah. so certainly the cagrisema news was very disappointing, but that was really relative to a bar

that the company set with investors in that they had set a weight loss goal for the drug of at least 25% of body weight. it came in at 22.7. so missing that bar that they set was a large reason the stock declined so much. however there's still a lot we don't know about the data and actually, as a headline weight loss result, it is the best number we have seen. we think it will still be a very, very big drug, but it's going to take some time to sort of win investors back to the story i think. >> do the side effects the number of 57% not proceeding to the highest dosage alarm you in any way? >> yeah. that's why we think -- what investors want to see the most because normally in these trials you're forced to get up to the max dose so when we get the weight loss number it's people on the highest dose. with this they had a different trial protocol. we don't know what weight loss was in the highest dose core. we'll find that out in the coming months. today we have very limited

information on side effects but they did say the discontinuations from the trial were low. >> let's just say that cagrisema is where it is in terms of the weight loss numbers. how does that sort of change the valuation of -- do you think that novo is discounted enough? is it a value to investors now to buy it based on the hope that cagrisema can actually show results that, perhaps, their trials in alzheimer's will show positive results for sem aglutie in general? >> for novo nordisk cagrisema still can help them get through the patent clip for ozempic so it -- cagrisema still keeps the novo story intact and, you know, trading at a low 20s p/e valuation on next year's numbers with double-digit earnings growth we think that valuation looks extremely attractive. but this sort of novo versus lilly debate feels like it's going to only get more intense next year rather than less so. >> especially as we get readouts

on lilly's next generation weight loss drug supposed to have great weight loss as well. how do you stack up the competition? the bar is getting higher and higher in terms of developing the drug. people are taking, you know, semaglutide. is there the need for 25% weight loss as opposed to 27? >> exactly. what clinicians say in the real world people don't go to the max dose because they're happy with the weight loss they have. the next data point that people in this space are going to be watching for is actually can we convert this market over to pills? that's a huge open question and eli lilly has their next generation pill having pivotal results next april. >> right. that's the key also in the race between novo and eli lilly in terms of the development of oral because lilly is a small molecule and that's much easier to make and so i'm wondering how do you discount that battle as well? does it seem like lilly is

racking up the wins? >> yeah. no, and absolutely i think the stock prices of the two companies tell you all you need to know about where investors think the winner is for this year. we'll see how the pill does and yeah, that's a big component of the valuation gap. you know, novo doesn't have one of these next generation pills. however, at least pecialists we talk to think for the most part the market will remain injection jektsble for a long time to come. >> got to leave it there. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> emily field. coming up on the other side of this a new era ahead for crypto currency. we'll talk about how president-elect trump's pick for sec chair will impact digital assets and the crypto industry. >> and the netflix -- you know, netflix delivering the netflix for christmas taking on the nba. what this could mean for the future of streaming and major sporting events. all that and more as "squawk box" rolls on a day after christmas and hanukkah.

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my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back to "squawk box." take a look at the price of bitcoin. seeing just about 95,000. well off of its all-time high now trading around that level, but still up, we should say, up 120% this year alone. there was a question about bitcoin's future and cnbc's delivering alpha survey which is most likely to happen first -- what is most likely to happen first for bitcoin. 57% say it will fall to 50,000 and 43% say it will rise to 200,000. this goes to the conversation happening around our christmas, hanukkah table. >> it's also a matter of

timeframe. >> yes. >> on that question, which we don't know. >> we don't know. where do you land on that? >> i think -- >> the bad business to answer that question. >> i think it can go to 50 and i think it can go to 200. >> long-term 200, short-term 50? >> yeah. >> okay. >> i think that's fair. president-elect trump has picked crypto supporter paul atkins to chair the security and exchange commission after four years of gary gensler's tough take on digital assets. joining us to discuss and how they will reshape the industry blockchain ceo kristen smith. >> thanks for having me. >> i'm wondering, i've had this question that i've asked myself, asked others since trump was elected and we've seen this sort of astronomical rise in bitcoin, what specifically are the regulations in place that have handcuffed bitcoin's growth in your view that will now be lifted under this new administration? >> yeah. it's interesting, when we talk

about the sec we're really talking about things other than bitcoin. bitcoin has been perceived to be a commodity and it's been something outside of it, but the fact that there isn't a basic regulatory framework for the exchanges and the trading of these assets, i think is something that has kept people out of bitcoin. when you look at all of the institutions and others they think this is unregulated and if there were regulated markets like people are used to having with financial assets people would be more open to coming into bitcoin. you know i'm in the camp of going back to that survey, i think it goes to 200 before it goes to 50. i think that, you know, you have a lot of people that are learning about bitcoin for the first time and i think, you know, as more and more sort of retail financial advisors are advising their clients to do this, i think that we're going to see more people come into bitcoin. also we see a lot of countries around world or states around

the united states that are building bitcoin reserves. i'm not sure that's something the u.s. is going to do right out of the gate. people are looking to hold more bitcoin, not less, so i think just having that change of attitude from the top, having a president who says hey, we want the u.s. to be the capital of this industry, we want to fight for you, we're behind you, we're going to get the rules right, get it done here, having that attitude at the top makes a tremendous amount of difference. >> i have a question and i don't know what the chances are that this happens, but i have been wondering whether there's going to be a backlash. one of the things that we're talking about this earlier this morning, article in the journal about how russia is using bitcoin in part to get around some of their own issues and to get around some of the financial system and the like, and i -- while clearly this president, president-elect trump, has been very bullish about bitcoin and wants to figure out crypto, i wonder whether there's going to be an argument made at some point that

potentially this could be a negative for the u.s. dollar long term and that if it actually has great success, it could actually create real problems and whether that will be actually anti-american? i'm not suggesting that is the case. >> yeah. >> i just wonder the farther we get along in this dialog and discussion, you could see some people say actually to be, quote, unquote, america first, actually bitcoin would be at odds with that, oddly enough, and so i just wonder how you think this whole thing shakes out? >> i think that's an interesting question. i think, you know, if you look outside of bitcoin and go over to stable coins, dollar-backed stable coins are really the true source of power for the american dollar because when you have something like bitcoin that price fluctuates as we've seen, it's down labor today. you know, people around the globe want to have a stable place to hold their money and when most of these stable coins are backed by u.s. treasuries

it's tremendously important for the dollar, it gives anyone around the world easy access to the dollar to move around quickly. when looking at u.s. strength for the dollar we need to be looking at stable coins than at bitcoin. but, you know, listen, i think there is a magic moment here. i am not, you know -- i've been working in washington for almost 25 years. these are incredibly rare moments. you don't have an industry that has such a pro-crypto congress, bipartisan level, right, as well as a pro-crypto president, and these are -- these are really, really unique situations that we find ourselves in within the crypto industry. my message working with the industry has been, you know, we got to strike while the iron's hot here. we need to work on getting the appropriate legislation done. we also have this rule making pathway that wasn't available in the last administration, so we could have the sec and the c ftc use the authority they clear have to move the ball forward to

find that framework that works for the industry. i think that this is a real opportunity. but we need to act now as an industry and we need to do it in a unified way or we're going to miss this moment and there could be backlash or something that sets us back again and then we have to, you know, continue to build up that political capital. >> so in terms of that regulatory framework that you refer to regarding the exchanges specifically, what are some of the tent poles of that that you're seeking? what are some of the hallmarks? how will they affect the likes of a coinbase or a robinhood? >> i think if you talk to any of the exchanges or the brokers out there today, is they want place to be able to go and register. they want to have government with some oversight to insure there aren't conflicts of interest that things are running smoothly, that there isn't any funny business going on at that level. when you have a centralized entity performing those types of services. this doesn't apply to defy, this

is for the cen tralized platforms. we need to figure out some way to solve this issue of what are these tokens. the issue of token classification has been a problem for a long time. basic rules around custody. these are all things that would be easy to do but some of them there are not clear authorities today, so we need congress to actually pass the law to do that. i think having a place for these exchanges to register would be very helpful in moving the market and to the next generation here. >> and just quickly, you said 200 before 50, but does it ever go back to 50 or is that history? >> i think it's history. i mean, listen, i'm the policy person, right. >> yeah. >> i live in washington. i am not bitcoin rich myself, so -- but, you know, listen, i think that more people are opening up to this. i think it's gone so mainstream in the short time that i've been doing this work, and i think

that, you know, when people realize i want to have 1%, 2% of my retirement portfolio in bitcoin, that is kind of a one-way street. i think as we're talking with different institutions, there's been this shift of they can't afford to not have an informed position on this and i think that, you know, ultimately is going to lead more people to buying bitcoin over time. >> thanks. kristen smith. coming up, after the buffering bruises from the jake paul-mike tyson fight, netflix got on the field with the nfl with two big games and a super bowl-caliber halftime show with beyonce. the question this morning, did the streaming giant score for investors? we'll discuss that when "squawk box" returns after this. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what are the top producing e sw wn quk x" states? thanerhe"sawbo returns. prime, it's me. i mean, you. wake up, come on man!

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and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what are the top producing christmas tree states? the answer, oregon, north carolina, and michigan.

welcome back to "squawk box." netflix making streaming history yesterday airing two nfl christmas day games for the first time in a $150 million move to expand to live sports. tom rodgers, orbit gaming, executive chairman of former nbc cable president and cnbc contributor. it's great to see you, tom. the question is $150 million, is how many new customers did they get, do you think, or how many customers did they not lose as a function of this? >> well, i think that's one of the data questions that we don't have hard data on yet and we'll begin to get it both viewership and sign-ups. my gut is that while netflix presumably entered into this deal to help its nascent advertising business, it looks like they did a hell of a job selling advertising here. it was chock full of ads.

less emphasized was would this be a big sign-up day for new netflix subscribers as the paul-tyson fight ended up being. i think it will be a banner day for sign-ups there. i think viewership is a question. i don't think it will do as well as the supposed 65 million concurrent streams that the tyson-paul fight did, but i think it will do better than predictions of 35 million viewers. this was global in terms of its reach and i think there will be a much bigger viewer number than that, probably peaking at the beyonce performance which, as you said, was super bowl quality. the other thing i'll be interested in seeing is how it did relative to last year's christmas day. last year's christmas day the

nfl games on the broadcast networks averaged about 30 million viewers. the nba christmas games averaged about 3 million viewers. but the netflix games were terrible. you know, they restored their live streaming chops, but the games themselves were not good at all. the nba games were great. i was at the knicks game, phenomenal game against the spurs, the lakers-warriors game was great. i think nba is going to be a beneficiary of how good those match-ups were and ultimately i think we may see some shift in the ratio there between nfl and nba ratings relative to last year. >> we were discussing how much do you think they paid for beyonce? do you think they paid more for each game or do you think they paid more for beyonce? >> i think they probably paid more for each game, but it's probably close. >> each game is worth $25 million to them.

there's three -- >> three years, two games a pop. >> right. but there's advertising that they sell. >> only guaranteed one game for the -- for '26. >> only one game. >> okay. >> that means the games are worth more than $25 million. >> i think she probably got close -- she gets an enormous number no matter what she does, to do it on christmas day, i'm sure there was a much bigger pop riding in on a horse, probably got more for. my guess is it was pretty close, but the games were probably somewhat more valuable. >> andrew wants to know so he can save up for his 50th birthday bash which is going to be huge and you will be invited i'm sure. >> i'll contribute, andrew. >> but tom, i'm wondering, this whole conversation brings, you know, this interesting sort of exercise in terms of what is it worth to netflix if we're not going to necessarily know the subscriber signups they got, they sell advertising, this keeps people in the fly wheel. how do you sort of assess what they pay for these games and what it means to netflix?

>> well, i think you have to put that in some perspective relative to a couple years ago where there was still big questions about netflix's future. today the market cap of netflix is about the same as disney, comcast, paramount, warner brothers discovery and fox combined. so they have become the broadest reach of global ya media network, by far the most valuable media company in the world. they are still able, i think, to have catalysts like this, if the subscriber sign-up number is good as i think it will be, that will pop the stock somewhat more. i would expect it will take a bit of a rest after that. but the big question is, sports as a catalyst generally for the media industry how deep is netflix going to get in. they announced that they're -- they've acquired the fifa women's cup world cup rights for

2027 and 2031. the next big package to come up in the sports world is ufc. are they going to try to take all of it, part of it, none of it, or like they've been doing so far, find some kind of special event around which they can get promotion. i'm still waiting for this new jersey drone issue to end up being a giant promotion for the next season of "stranger things." these guys are phenomenal at promoting events. >> what can you make, do you think, just on the advertising alone though? not on the internal promotions helpful as a brand building exercise but i'm talking about just advertising on those games themselves? >> well, i think advertising alone rarely covers the sports rights fee. i think they, as a first out effort to fill up inventory with

premier advertisers sold at premier rates, and i'm sure they did extremely well and my guess is that they looked at this as a -- as a promotional event and an i.t. churn event for netflix, but i think it's going to more than pay for itself if the kind of signups they get ends up being the kind of number i would expect and i think even potentially bigger than the signups they got from tyson-paul which was a very big banner sign-up day. >> tom, can you look into your 2025 crystal ball for us just on a separate note. there's so many questions about now we have the trump administration coming in to play here about what kind of deals may or may not happen. i don't know if you think there's big deals in the offing that we should be discussing. >> well, i do think this will be

the year that two of the traditional legacy media companies have some kind of merger or joint venture or streaming services, as difficult as that will be to put together. i do think that there is a need for driving scale in the streaming space, and i'm not predicting which services will be the players there, but i do predict two of them will get together in some way. i think the deal that will be culminated in 2025, the spinoff of cnbc and the other nbc cable networks, i predict it will be a great catalyst for the expansion of cnbc into the future, so i think that will be a big one to watch as well. >> and then what do you think of this new fcc chair taking it to bob iger over abc news?

>> well, i think that disney will probably try to avoid major political scuffles in 2025. i'm, you know, i think this is an indication of what the next administration relationship with media may be like which could be pretty harsh in terms of coming at media properties when te don't agree with positions they've taken. i think it's one thing for it to be words from officials. it's another thing if it turns into some kind of actions on licenses or other things which would be really a bad development to see that kind of government treatment of media. >> okay. tom, it's great to see you. merry christmas, happy hanukkah. we'll see more of you in '25. thanks. >> thanks for having me. coming up, more media moves.

disney had a big year at the box office but can it lead the industry back to prepandemic levels next year? we'll check out the slate of movies coming up from the magic kingdom. check out some of the studio stocks this morning. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." take a check on the post-christmas futures picket right now looking negative right across the board. dow looking to lose 231 at the open. the nasdaq looking to be down by about 106. we do have some results, more results, from cnbc's delivering alpha survey. one of the questions based on what you know so far, where do you stand on president-elect trump's economic policies? 71% say he'll be great for the economy and the markets. 29% say his policies will not be good for the economy and the markets. you can see more, by the way, of the results of the survey on cnbc.com. meantime, let's talk about taxes. potential tariffs and an expiring tax law coming up this year. president-elect trump and his administration facing several challenges heading into 2025.

joining us with the implications of extending the tax cuts and jobs act, allison tregger and yale school of manager professional natasha serren. good morning to you. what are the chances you think we don't get a tax extension in this calendar year, allison? >> i'd say low. i think it's looking good they're going to extend them all. i think rainy even if harris wo have won they would have extended them. i don't see any party wanting to put taxes higher on middle-class people. the thing about trump we can expect sort of it become permanent for pretty much all earners. >> you think it becomes permanent? what's the chances it goes lower? >> so i think there's like a -- the thing i can tell you with full certainty maybe the tax code is going to change next year, right. $5 trillion of expiring tax cuts that are sof have to be extended and if they're not extended they

will disappear and that means tax increases across the board. the benefits of the tax cuts are way concentrated towards the top of the distribution. the question that i have and the question you're kind of starting to get to, is like what is going to happen on the pay for side? so let's say you want across-the-board extend the trump tax cuts about $5 trillion. if you want to make good on all these other trump campaign promises, no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime, no taxes on social security benefits, that's another $5 trillion of tax cuts. so $10 trillion of deficit finance tax cuts is going to be hugely problematic for the american economy and result in higher borrowing rates. it's going to increase mortgage rate, increase credit card borrowing rates in ways that i think are going to be disruptive. i suspect they will have to find ways to pay for this. >> allison, sort of game theory this out for us. how do you do it and make it at

least from optics perspective look like it's neutral somehow? >> well, it's hard to know, based on his economic picks one thing they might do is bring in the border tax adjustment on the corporate side which when they moved to destination based taxes what they were supposed to do to make it deficit neutral we can expect that. they're hoping this might be wishful thinking that d.o.g.e. will find ways to promote growth or maybe cut spending. i think when you hear them talk, they're talking not necessarily about finding other ways to get tax revenue, but to maybe cut spending. i don't see anything they're doing that looks like it's going to do that directly, but i guess they're hoping they're going to find ways to be more efficient. >> natasha can you theorize out how you can make this work? >> the reality there's like not enough money there with respect to this sort of d.o.g.e. spending cuts they imagine, especially when in a world in which there's no changes to social security and health

benefits that are on the table. the social security and medicare trust funds are set to extinguish in the next decade. i don't necessarily see how you can get the numbers to work because rather than talk about things like let's increase the corporate rate slightly to what business had asked for when the tcj was passed around 25%, what they're saying is we're going to cut corporate rates further. they're saying that they're going to -- rump said previously his solution for all of this is that we're going to eliminate the income tax and replace it with tariffs besides being mathematically impossible there's not enough revenue there. it would also be hugely inflationary and resulting in thousands of dollars of increased costs for the american people each year and move us closer to [ inaudible ]. i doubt allison thinks it is either or find any economist including those who are going to be working in the trump administration who would agree with that sort of approach as

well. >> allison, do you have any thought about what the corporate tax rate ultimately looks like and does it matter? >> well, of course, it matters. >> it matters but what's a rate that could work? >> well -- >> talk about 15%? >> he's saying 15% which is similar to a lot of other countries. i think as natasha points out it's not going to bring in enough revenue or produce enough growth to pay for that cut. so, again, they could just say bring in border tax adjustment. people on his team seem to be in favor of that. i think as natasha keeps pointing out and she's right, you know, we might spur some growth for some of these policies but not enough to pay for it. i think we're looking at higher debt no matter which way we go on this. the question is, how much damage is the higher debt going to bring to the economy during the trump administration. you might not feel the cost of that for another couple years. >> allison and natasha, we'll watch and wait, and i'm sure

we'll debate a lot in 2025. thanks. >> thanks for having us. coming up, how will companies use ai in 2025? goldman sachs has some predictions and we'll bring them to you next. as we head to break the megacap thotam aleedpp. ere are some. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪♪ amazing. jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh.

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♪ welcome back to "squawk box." after a banner year for the ai industry goldman sachs out with some predictions for where this technology is headed in 2025. kate rooney is here post-christmas on boxing day no less on boxes for us. >> we will unbox the predictions. great to see you guys. goldman's top tech executive did share his outlook on ai. i spoke to marco on this topic, and he spent the bulk of his

career at aws, and nokia back in the day. now handles goldman's internal ai efforts. we first talked about what went on this year. he said ai feels like the emergence of kouds. he was at aws for that. a lot faster. he's never seen anything like this in terms of the pace right now of deployment. biggest surprise he says was this technology moving beyond just chat bots into multimodal, essentially ai that generates video and images, says that next year, fortune 500 companies will deploy this in a much more impactful way. >> all those capabilities will be deployed into corporations enterprises and we're going to be put in use in an effective way beyond the use case that we hear about a lot like the developing use case or the customer use case, et cetera. i see 2025 where a lot of that software potential energy we've seen is going to be made into

like translated into actual returns and applications within the corporation. >> he does think this is going to evolve into a hybrid workforce. ai agents working alongside people and managers for ai says there's going to be an emergence of experts as well that have very specific industry knowledge in terms of what those agents look like. he is anticipating major ai robotics breakthrough, ai safety. he says it's going to become a bigger priority on company boards not just for regulators and large language models does expect consolidation and we will see many cars with fewer engines, being the underlying models used in those, models from openai and google and others will get commoditized and the data these companies trade off, according to ar jenty, will emerge as a possible edge, guys. >> when he says there's going to be consolidation among large language models how does he see

that happening? >> i don't think m&a, but i think smaller some of these models just looking a little bit more similar. consolidation not in terms of them merging, but i guess more of commoditization. they sort of start to look the same. they consolidate certain features in a way they kind of start looking like the engine of your car where you don't think or know about it, but you know what kind of car you have the model of the car. maybe that's where the application comes in. >> who's developing the industry specific, you know, deep dive ai engines. to train the models you need the data and there has to be level of cooperation i would imagine amongst companies. >> they have these, something goldman does, where the banks do, they take a model from openai, anthropic is also becoming one of the leaders and making a ton of progress, seen as one of the leaders for enterprise at least, take something off the shelf, customize it for banking and do some of the leg work but use the underlying technology and that's one of the models you're seeing

really play out, the banks and others are sort of fine tuning them to make them better. not making their own. they need the talent. that's another thing in 2025, the talent pool. i was asking him how are you competing with google and amazon to hire some of these people? it is the data because some of these people want to be -- you hear things from folks like mastercard where they have the data to work with and that's appealing. we'll see if they're able to get top talent. >> what do you use? >> what do i use. >> i use perplexity a lot. >> really. >> i do use them all, but i use chatgpt. i'm stuck in santa mode. did you see this they launched the santa mode. every time i use -- when i'm driving if i have a question i want to ask siri but can't come up with it, i'll ask chatgpt. it's stuck in santa mode. telling me everything i want it know but stuck in santa's voice. >> it's over the top, so i can't get out of santa mode.

i've moved away from chatgpt because of that. >> what do you use? >> i'm a big chatgpt and anthropic you can talk to claude the back and forth is kind of fun. gemini playing around with gemini on the images and video stuff. >> that's fun. >> which i do think may be better than some of the others. >> yeah. i think gronk is going to be one, ex- one, xai. >> that's one you hear a lot more about, a name to watch musk's influence. can't be ignored. >> i think you can make videos and other things will real people in them that you can't -- >> that's right. >> like openai stops you from doing things like -- >> trouble. sounds like trouble. something to watch. >> thank you. >> good to see you guys. >> coming up, the wrap on the delay shopping season. will there be names on the discount rack? new data on retail sales from stca.d "sawk box" is coming right

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mastercard just out with new spending data. it says retail sales rose 3.8%

from last year. joining us is michael the founder of five new digital. great to have you with us on set. top selling brands straight to it. >> lego was a big winner. nike was a big winner. burberry did very well. and i think you really saw it was encouraging a cross-section of apparel, toys, and electronics that did very well. i guess gift cards were also the big winner. it's been a trend for a few years now, and so we've seen some of these brands and the retailers that sell them like walmart and amazon had banner years. >> how does this compare to let's say last season? have the winners changed? >> i think they've been pretty consistent. you know, amazon and walmart were the dominant winners. target had a better season than a lot of people expected. you know, i think target fell behind a little bit in the

online-offline integration race to walmart over the last few years. i think target is going to have a big comeback year. the department stores, you know, macy's didn't have a good season. and i think what we really learned this season as there are just simply some models and formats that don't work anymore and that people are spending, but they're really particular about where they want to spend. >> right. the mastercard survey that was just released, you know, let's say 20 minutes ago or so said online was the number one choice. is that even when there's a bricks and mortar option do consumers still choose the online mode? >> the answer is yes, and no. roughly 25% of all holiday sales happened online. but it's been a huge increase year to year. so black friday was up 10% online year over year. cyber monday was up 13.1% year

on year. so online has grown its share of the pie. we always ask the same question, so i apologize if it's just a boring question, which is how much of those days do you think ultimately are a pull forward day or actually incremental? >> i think they're more incremental. you know, we do a lot of study -- some people are looking on their return on ad spend on these platforms saying we're getting a three to one or four to one. when you apply data analytics you can break up how much what has been sold without those campaigns on those platforms versus how much actually was. but the other big trend we saw is mobile is dominating now. so about 40% of all sales in e-commerce happened on mobile. we're predicting 70% of all e-commerce sales are going to be mobile next year. >> 70. >> if you're a brand or retailer you're not thinking about how to

optimize formobile you'll have a hard time getting through to consumers. >> are you focused at all on returns? >> returns is a big issue. returns is really hurting the retail industry. >> super expensive? >> super expensive and this is a shocking number, this year returns a lot of that comes from what we call, bracketing and ordering a lot of different styles and colors. it is a big problem. you think about retailers having a tough time with margins, the combination of organized retail theft and returns, it is hard to deal with. >> we have heard shrink has come down and other players have

blamed shrink in terms of target. are we coming closer to a day when returns will be more limited? >> i think that is happening. the issues that brands and retailers keep running up against is every time they take away free returns, they lose 35% or 45% of their customers who will go to somebody who does offer it. i think there is another solution. this is key for all brands and retailers. there are channels and technologies and formats to sell through now that are demonstrably proven to lower return rates. for instance, live streaming commerce has 25% conversion as opposed to 2% on a website and has a 5-10% return rate as opposed to a 30-40%. the more immersive the experiential your

physical store and digital stories, immediately, you see the uptick in traffic, conversion, average order volume, long-term customer value and a lower end return. >> thank you. good to see you. >> just past 8:00 a.m. you are watching squawk box on cnbc. a day after the first day of hanukkah and christmas of course. joe and becky are off today. we have some big and breaking economic news that we will bring you at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. we have weekly jobless claims. take a look at u.s. equity features. it is red on the screen the day after christmas. the santa claus rally maybe being delayed by the grinch. nasdaq of 103 points. the s&p 500 off about 25 points. not seeing any outside moves among dow stocks. but at this point, all 30 are indicating marginally lower or flat. not one breaking out either way. taking a look at treasury. a 10 year note.

4.631. and bitcoin, conversation starter during the holiday season sitting at about $95,000. we are watching shares of apple as the market cap nears $4 trillion. $4 trillion with a t. apple stock would need to rise in order to hit the milestone. >> about 2.5%. >> let's get a look at the premarket. >> about an hour and a half into the market opens. take a look at shares of gamestop of about 3% right now in premarket as the champion roaring kitty posted on x formerly known as twitter, a picture of a wrapped gift christmas morning. that has resurrected this discussion and chat rooms as keith gill makes his return to social media and what it could

mean. what does it mean for gamestop shares which have been volatile this year. the stock has benefited from what many are calling a means stock rally following president- elect trump's win. the stock is up 84% this year. turning to shares of uber. slightly higher as the taiwan antitrust regulator blocks the rideshare giant's plan to buy delivery heroes food panda for $150 million citing anti- concerns. and trading flat for the year as the rideshare giant has struggled with concerns among increased competition from autonomous vehicle companies. and shares of tesla and focus of about 1%. and 11% since monday as the ev maker's reporting deliveries next week. tesla expecting slight growth for deliveries this year but investors are looking o see if the automaker can surpass expectations, especially as the stock reaches record highs

following trump's victory in november and the discussion about what policy elon musk could try to fast-track. about nine tenths of 1% right now. and results from the cnbc quarterly delivering survey. 64% of the market participants surveyed said they would certify cybersecurity related stocks over ai. weight loss drugs, or crypto mining stocks. joining us on his expectations for the markets in 25, junior investment strategist. good morning. >> happy holidays. >> would you go ai over weight loss drugs or how would you do this? >> i think from the ai perspective, and i think back to an outlook we wrote about a year ago and for the upcoming year, a lot of the focus from the ai is the adopters versus the creators. not at the expense of one another but one team we have been seeing, especially for a lot of industries that have been undergoing a lot of margin compression in particular over

the last year has been way to alleviate the margin pressure and a lot of that has been by adopting some sort of ai to be able to plug into your model, whether it is through airlines that traditionally struggled with margins or even grocery retailers which has been a big theme and something that continues. not at the expense of the creators and that chip stocks. taking it on the chin because of that. that has been something we have been exploring over multiple years and not just the near term. >> are you of the view that the backstabbing continues with broad, and it. or that 2025 will not be friendly? >> from a waiting standpoint, yes. it is hard if you just take the sides of those companies and assume -- even if they just grow at a modest rate. they will still have an outside impact on the index. there is often this conflating between performance and weight. i find it interesting that even if you just look year to date, and this is just looking at

performance. not an individual company analyst. the second best performing stocks in the s&p 500 is in video. if you look at the spectrum in the 200 rankings, there are hundreds of companies outperforming. one of the biggest companies that we have in the s&p. there is often this conflating where just because the larger are the best performers. clearly that has been the case for the group as a whole over the past month, month and a half since the election but not always the case. >> what does testimony have to say? >> i was curious about the ai beneficiaries. we have not seen that is not investable thesis yet. in 2025, you mentioned grocery store chains. all the places that could benefit margins could benefit. the benefit to stockett, can you say, i will invest in the users of ai? >> if you look at groceries in particular, that is part of the staples group which has been this material under performer in the last year, year and a half. it is interesting because the concept of what is considered

defensive in the market, has changed. especially in the post- pandemic era. there are times, especially this year, in the first half of the year, where it was sort of a bias to move into the parts of the market for defense. not necessarily healthcare or utilities. utilities is a different story this year because there is probably more of the ai play they are. i that will be differentiated moving forward. especially for an area like staples. don't approach it from the ai perspective that they will outperform materially. but being able to maintain some sort of mediocre level of performance. especially when you do go through downturns and you want to look at utilities or healthcare. >> not a big selling point to look for mediocre returns. you think that that is the defensive nature of the staples that will be maintained? how about healthcare which has done miserably.

>> it is one of those we don't want to be contrary and for the sake of being a contrarian. but you look at this relative to the s&p. levels that are close to 2007, 2008. and it is a wide range of industries. one that i focus on a lot from a volatility perspective is biotech. you get these massive swings. especially in a higher interest rate environment where the companies tend to suffer more. it is a little tough. if you are looking at healthcare overall, you probably don't get as much meaningful upside because sometimes those names hold you back in times when there are drawdowns. i do think that if you are looking an industry by industry, there are definitely opportunities there. it won't be as beneficial from the sector as a whole. >> thank you for having me. crew prices inching higher in the month of december of three and a half%. where oil could be heading next.

>> and the lackluster debut for the disney lion king prequel and whether the company can pick up anything at the box office. squawk box will be right back! i need to get me a new phone. you need to trade-in that busted up phone and get you a brand new iphone 16 pro at t-mobile. it's on them. families save 20% every month. what a deal! new and existing customers, trade in your busted old phone, and we'll give you a new iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence on us. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

let's get a look at the state of the energy market and the outlook for 2025. let's welcome glow bill research for goldman sachs. oil headed for a modest drop for the year. i'm wondering in terms of the geopolitical and economic factors, what is the biggest driver here? is china demand not coming back? the u.s., we are keeping up our end of it in terms of a decently strong economy here. >> we were looking for a modest deficit in 2024 and that is basically what we got. i think what has changed is service to supply.

and markets becoming more focused on a potential oversupply and the risk between dropping. the fundamentals have been broadly in line with the industry levels edging down slightly. but i think market sentiment has shifted and they are more pessimistic from that perspective. >> what are you looking for in 2025 as far as the price of oil and the hotspots and what the decisive factors will be for the oil sector? >> staying close to current levels in the mid-70s. and opec and limiting upset. i think there is a risk. in large part because of potential implications from the new u.s. administration. in the short term, you see risk to the upside. looking for the modest decline because of tightening sanctions. that could cause a spike to the mid-80s

from that perspective. over the medium-term, we see the risk is a downside. both across-the-board tariffs which could weigh on oil demand and a faster and more significant return of barrels to the market. >> talking about the policy from the new administration, it is mainly the tariff. now the regulatory forces at home for drilling. because we have seen oil prices come down when you have a more loose drilling policy. >> the two areas of u.s. policy that we think are the most significant for oil prices are on the supply side. ship sanctions and lower supply . in 2018 and 2019 under the first term of the administration, iran experts dropped by more than 2 million barrels per day. on the men's -- said, is tariffs what is your outlook

for gold? it is a hot investor topic. people want to buy at costco. >> it tends to be the favorite long commodity. we see gold prices rising by the end of next year. an additional 14-16%. the main structural driver of the bullish forecast is that central-bank purchases have increased by a factor of five compared to the pre-2022 average because central bank woke up when russian central- bank reserves were frozen wondering, are my assets safe? should i diversify to gold? on the cyclical side, we look for additional price support from a gradual boost to demands. gold and holding because of lower federal funds. >> all of this will offset

even the strength of the dollar which has called for increasingly in 2025. central-bank differentials continued to decrease. >> in our you, a stronger dollar for longer won't prevent gold prices to rise by the end of next year. we find that etf depend on the level of u.s. rates as opposed to the dollar. second, if you look at central- bank, biggest driver of additional demands looking at china, there is a deep appreciation in china. and associated with stronger goals from the central-bank in the central bank tries to provide confidence to the currency markets by supporting the gold purchases. >> thank you so much for coming by. coming up, disney topping the box office in 24 with big hits like deadpool and

wolverine. inside out two and moana2. but does the studio veheha t magic to bring the movie business back to prepandemic levels? we have a hollywood preview next right here on squawk.

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welcome back to squawk box. disney's might have opened short of expectations. putting some high-stakes to keep it up. good morning. >> even with the disappointment of mufasa's low opening last season, disney returned to its spot on top the box office share after falling behind universal after a massive 2025 disney studio. it is this the -- disney studios has a 25% market share

this year according to the first studio to cross $2 billion in annual domestic box office with three of the top five films of the year. moana, inside out, deadpool and wolverine. while the mufasa opening did fall short of expectations and raised concerns about the upcoming snow white, the studio got a big boost from the bob dylan bio, an unknown that opened to positive reviews and awards. next year will be the ultimate test of the ceo's focus on turning around the studios. it expands from the wide releases that had this year to 12 wide releases next year and coding sequels to captain america, utopia and avatar. and what disney says is the best slate since before the pandemic. as the studios under pressure to continue to turn old franchises into new blockbusters. as it did with moana and inside out. disney shares have lagged the s&p 500 since the company was

restructured two years ago to prioritize the films among other things. and not just for the studio performance but for driving content across all of disney's divisions including disney plus and the parks. andrew. >> what is your take on the moana situation for real? is it a huge problem? >> the moana situation or the mufasa situation? >> mufasa. >> we have not gotten the box office numbers for christmas day yet. there a little bit delayed because of the holiday. and international opening of moana has been quite huge. on top the box office in the uk and other european territories. so i think that trend -- mufasa will hold up well over the course of the holiday season. i personally saw the film and enjoyed it with my kids. but i think what we will see here is that families are looking for films to see over the holidays.

we did see the sonic sequel top the box office last weekend. i think that ishs that it is hard to nail this digital animation and some people have a hard time with it. they are either wanting to see something look more like traditional animation and obviously the lion king was such an iconic film. but i think this is a film that will have longer legs because it appealed to that family audience. >> i don't like the real animal stuff. i like the cartoon. i wanted to be cute and fussy. i cannot excepted in my my head. i'm old-fashioned that way. and i think will be interesting. there are a lot of digitally animated animals and snow white. that is the next comparison coming up. and so the question is whether the realism of those digitally animated creatures is confusing to people. but also whether we see that this is a film that ends of doing fine over the long run

because it is such an iconic brand and such a global brand. is not just about the domestic box office for a filmlike mufasa . >> may be a curveball about netflix but we were also talking about disney in the context of the letter, the next head of the fcc sent to bob iger regarding abc news and therefore abc affiliates. any kind of scuttlebutt on what the thinking is internally at disney after getting a letter like that? >> from what i understand, this is a time when everyone is trying to play it safe. i have also heard that because of this extra scrutiny on the media industry which the fcc letter seems to indicate, there will be a lot of scrutiny of the media. and maybe it won't be so easy to do media deals. maybe this is a sign that actually the media stream will have a really hard time doing

mna because they are under this microscope because of the cultural issues. the conversations i have been hearing from my sources is that this is more of an indicator of how much these companies will be under the microscope and won't be able to get deals done in the next couple years. >> merry christmas, happy hanukkah. nice to see you. british airways owner iag is in talks with starling outfitting airplanes with wi- fi. they said that it is also considering other providers including the amazon project clipper. you know what that is? >> cipe low cap. >> the airline faces hurdles for the plan. u.s. airlines could easily switch internet services from starling because it has been certified by the faa but european carriers have to go through this process. and september, united airlines announced it had reached a deal

with starling for onboard internet. defense lawyers saying former abercrombie and fitch ceo michael jeffries might have dementia and may not be able to assist in his own defense. jeffries, who is now 80, is free on bond after pleading not guilty in october to federal sex trafficking and interstate prostitution charges. prosecutors say he and his romantic partner and a third man lured men into drug fueled sex parties in the hamptons by dangling the promise of modeling for the retailer adds. prosecutors and defense lawyers are suggesting a competency hearing in june to determine whether jeffries can stand trial. next, breaking economic news. we have weekly jobless claims when squawk box returns. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out.

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new economic data. steve has the numbers. >> 219,000. that is a consensus of 2,024,000. last week, it was not revised.

the number week average, 226,000, up from 225. not a big deal. a pretty good jump right there. 1. 91 million. and then 1. eight and up from 1. 864. the unemployment rate rising to 1. 3%. a little softness in the job market we have been watching. about 250,000 and then ranging to 300 is on it would really feel like there is concern in the job market. and and watching this and correctly showing because we have been below the number for a while. if you go back below the pandemic, 1. nine was a great number before that. there does seem to be a little more trouble. losing jobs and finding jobs.

here's the unemployment rate. they are both sort of taking up. one against the other. as you get a little more softness in the job market, probably would lead fed chair jay powell to say, i don't see inflation of the job market as a source of inflation. you look at those things together as they get to 4.2% on the unemployment way. those two kind of taking up together from the bottoms you had about a year or so ago. one other thing i want to show you guys is the median duration of unemployment. something that has been taking up. not terribly worrisome but something worth watching. you are up around 9.5, 10 weeks of median duration. and i think you know this story. what we have scene is less hiring but not a lot of firing. that is the dynamic we want to

watch as we figure out how much softness there is in the labor market for 2025. checking the probabilities, we have been in this zone for quite a while. where the market has priced the cut for next year. those of the first three bars you see there. up above 50%. and you don't get it until may. the second cut, the market is not on board. even the fed has it in the forecast, they are not embracing the idea of a second cut next year, melissa. i will leave it there. >> steve, thank you. steve policeman with jobless claims. the outlook for ipos in the new year. we will get some insight from fundraiser right after the break!

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welcome back to squawk box. the debut of the nfl on netflix is mostly glitch free. after a microphone issue that have been at the of yesterday's pair of games broadcast on the streaming service. without a hitch. for most of you that saw the fight, this was different. the games, blowouts. the kansas city chiefs defeating the steelers 29-10. the ravens beat the texans 31-2 and then the beyonci halftime show providing a lot of excitement. sometimes more than the game depending on what you thought. she came into the field on a white horse and brought out a special guest shaboozey and post malone. and then there was this one. and i don't know what you thought of this. mariah carey kicking off the show with a taped performance of her hit song "all i want for christmas is you."

it generated, not just some backlash but or a lot of backlash for those hoping for a live performance. >> maybe she annot deliver that same quality of performance. >> in the lip-synching situation i think also frustrated folks. >> and then the question of, and we have discussed this all morning, how much did beyonci■ get quick, should did post malone get an shaboozey? you are obsessed with it. >> each game probably customer between 25-$40 million. how much did they charge? >> this is trouble you or are you interested in it because you are trying to figure out how much it is worth to netflix ? >> how much money can they make off of the advertisement itself and how many new subscribers can they bring and how many can they prevent from

turning off? what is the actual math of doing this? >> we can try to get that from tom roger. >> nobody knows. >> nobody really knows. >> if the stock keeps going higher and there is not as much and people sign up -- numeral. >> support companies service titan going public with a bang earlier this month. they were on our show in the morning. the company top 42% the first day of trading. renewed anticipation for other ipos is now emerging for the first half of 2025 joining us with more on what looks like the ipo window, b cap n miller with sunrise. helping people get a piece of companies like service titan before they go public. what are you expecting? >> it finally happened. we have been waiting for a couple of years. sunrise created the innovation fund to invest into private

tech companies with the idea that this suite of private companies would go public. and what we are seeing so far validates the model. we saw service titan pop 44% and a single day. i think that is a green light for the entire ipo market. >> what i worry about with asking this question is asking a barber if you need a haircut. it is your business. there has been a big question about whether these companies would go public or whether there would be an exit for a lot of things. the private equity, they desperately need this to happen. the question, do you think the valuations that a lot of the companies have are still too high? is that what has been preventing this from happening? >> the venture market has transformed so much over the last 10, 15 years. iran a tech company. being public is no longer something you look forward to.

you can now get as much or more liquidity in the private market. there is really no reason to go public anymore. you saw stripe and open ai do these opening multibillion- dollar around without going public. the real question is, why would anybody want to go public? and it only makes sense if the public market will reward you. we finally saw the public market , they reward a service titan and invested in service titan more than a year ago and saw a 50% pop. i think that is the kind of sign that the private company is waiting for. otherwise, being public, there are so many regulatory issues. everybody is trading stock and there is not that much benefit to it unless you will get rewarded. >> i have a question about how sunrise actually works then. you offer liquidity which is one of the key advantages of investing in this way. quarterly, liquidity. i'm wondering, how do you mark

the value of the investments on a quarterly basis when these are private, long-term investments. >> we created the first venture fund anyone could invest in. we had to go to the fcc and work with them. it is a new model. the challenge is that private markets previously dated institutional investors and work investors could invest in it. the model is kind of a hybrid of public and private. the fund holds some liquid public stock and also private companies. typically, we mark the company where the last fund raise has been. if they raise money at a billion-dollar valuation, that is where we would market. otherwise, it is difficult to know how to price something. and so this happens more irregularly than the public markets. but the point here is that these companies that are waiting to go public or mature, are so high-quality. so mature. it doesn't make sense for

ordinary individuals not to be able to invest in them. what we are seeing and what we have done is validated the model . >> in terms of industries that you think have a great opportunity in this environment, is it all just tech stuff? or do you think there are other places that are less exciting that will have to be home public? >> i think it is outside my expertise. i know decent amount about tax. the ai revolution is from every industry. we invest in ai and the picks and shovels and data interpret -- infrastructure. of course that as ai but i'm sure there will be a lot of change, good and bad, for the market. >> how concerned are you on the ai front that some of these companies ultimately get disrupted themselves by ai quick sort of the moat around these businesses and whether there is one? >> the companies were so

successful investing in it. you think you have heard microsoft say this. the first two or three years as a landgrab. and then then it is easier to have that market share. at that point, it is difficult when you are in the middle of a paradigm shift. we have seen a handful of companies really break out over open i -- open ai, throbbing and data bricks. i use the technologytechnology. we are a technology company that uses are products so i have a good sense of it. i don't think of the risk here. i think the risk is, how does ai affect individuals and their jobs and the country? it will have a huge impact. and i think we are having a hard time imagining it. >> i want to thank you and wish you a happy holiday. thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> the apple market cap is approaching the 4 trillion- dollar mark. we have more on this 2.5%

increase. it is hardly anything to get to four. >> one good headline might do it. 264.63 is a magic number to look for here. that is what it would need to hit in order to cause that 4 trillion mark. by the way, apple is the first company to do 1 trillion, three, and now four. you said at the top of the show during the 6:00 a.m. hour that this is happening. basically no news. i feel like at least 10 or 11 days this month, i have been on air talking about new all-time for apple, all-time highs for apple. if you look at what is happening with apple, there was not much different with a company than there was a month or two ago. it is a lot of optimism going into 2025. i would note a lot of analyst firms have made at the top pick. or one of the topics for 2025. and it is also worth looking at, how apple really paints the

narrative around itself from where it started the year. it was severely lagging behind its peers that were telling great ai stories. we know nvidia of course and then have microsoft with the copilot product and strengthen as you are powering the artificial intelligence. you have amazon and meta with heavy investments with ai. and apple was really silent on artificial intelligence until june of this year. that is when he saw shares really start to take off. and when they had the apple intelligence, then things really started to turn the other way. i would also say that the story about apple intelligence still has not played out yet. our friend raised capital again on the ai optimism. but we just don't know yet if that is going to play out. right now, all the estimates for iphone sales are going into the december quarter wherewith they book the most revenue and are pretty lackluster to be honest. a couple of percentage points rose after some tough years for the iphone business.

justifying the valuation. we will have to see that play out, melissa. >> recently, steve saying that the iphone 16 doesn't seem to be as great as the iphone 15 sales and apple intelligence and the lack of a robustness to the offering is behind it. when will we see more features that will actually be a reason for people to buy the 16th? >> apple is holding off on the biggest and best stuff until next year. chatgpt integration lost a couple weeks ago. early next year, expecting the big siri update. that is where she can talk more naturally to you and go under the data already stored on your phone, for your calendar and even third-party apps and analyze that and answer questions about that kind of stuff. then again, developers that will build into this apple intelligence system don't have access to it yet to cool apps

in to work with apple intelligence. that will be a longer tail for them to launch. that is what we are waiting for to see if that moves the needle. six or seven weeks from now, we will get apple earnings that will tell is exactly how good or bad the december quarter was for the iphone. that is what everyone will be hanging on to. and if it is a good quarter, how much can be attributed to ai or just the fact that we are on this four, five year cycle of. the last super cycle for iphone was 2020 with the introduction of 5g. >> what is the consensus on wall street for the sales and the calendar year 1st quarter we will be getting a few weeks or so. and is it driven? are the numbers driven by ai or what is the downside if that ai part of it doesn't fly out? >> that is the real question. is there any evidence that there is a growth in sales on the iphone and how much can be

attributed i asked him cook hot , the ceo of apple, is there any way that you can attribute ai is a reason for people to upgrade? or that is causing people to upgrade? basically they said it is too early to know but things that is a compelling reason to upgrade. and talked about how he uses it himself and things like that. i ing about how these features had barely launched yet. it is really too soon to tell what kind of demand this is driving. >> thank you. coming up, tapping into ai for investment. where to target for 2025 from the ceo of reflexivity. that is next. squawk box is coming back!

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. welcome back to squawk box. take a look at the price of bitcoin a day after christmas and the first day of hanukkah.

looking at $95,000. take a look at other crypto related stocks as well. coin-based micro strategy either holding up the fort or not depending on what is going on here. i don't know where you are on this these days? >> i am agnostic. i'm an observer of the market. there you go. your hanukkah wish coming true. >> thank you. >> 6%. >> ai start up reflexivity uses tools to make investment decisions for client portfolios. we have the company cofounder and ceo. good morning. >> great to see you. how does this work and how deep

is the model in terms of the data and how far goes back? >> our goal is to be able to leverage both the ai technology and cloud compute to give a complete health track to the security every day and give you a sense of, is the market vulnerable to a correction correction? we understand every business depends on its own fundamentals and the context for which it operates. we try to give you a complete compilation and analysis every morning. >> how good is this? >> very good. >> you back to this, i assume? >> yes. the goal is to give the analyst or portfolio manager this superpower. we want to go to the data but it is often tedious to build a spreadsheet every time. it makes it a lot easier. >> how does this replace functions on wall street? talking about building models and spreadsheets. it sounds to me like a lot of the research done on wall street . >> the goal is to build an

autonomous investment. that is the goal. on the way there, i think we have created a lot of technology that helps you with things where when you are logging into the bloomberg terminal, it will take you a long time to do. you could say, this is the question i would like to answer and rely on the engine to go and find the data and run the analysis. take something that would have taken two hours and do it in two minutes. >> can you give us an example? >> let's say right now you are having a discussion around growth for a specific company. let's say the question is, next year, we will have possibly higher inflation, higher interest rates, progrowth environment. one of the securities in the past and what have they done well in with the certain sector and not as sensitive or harm or have market data below one? in about 30 seconds, they can come back and say, here it is based on 12 or 15. and the selection of securities that correspond to what you are looking for?

>> you just outlined some of the parameters. did you take into consideration the context of declining interest rate environment or rising interest rate environment or with the macro is as well? >> that is exactly what it does. it tries to find parallels from the path to give you a sense of what the price pattern going forward could look like. >> how do you envision this? will this be an additional service layered on top of another platform? is it a standalone? how do you monetize this? >> our clients are primarily top hedge funds that are using this as an intelligent overlay on top of the other data sources they have access to. and so throw platform like ours, they can actually connect them and make sense of the whole thing as opposed to switching between the platforms all the time. >> it is amazing what can be done. >> the question is, how accurate it will be. that is

what i can't figure out and we don't really know. >> i think what you are able to see over time is that you can obviously look at how some of the recent predictions have worked out. if you look at the market as a whole, it is called a peak in july and then a false rally after that and then because it creates this completely independent assessment -- >> but what did it get wrong? you told us everything that it got right. >> for example, recently, it turned bullish a little too early. we recently had, when the feds came and we said, we won't do four but two. >> do you understand why it got it wrong? >> do you know how you put it together? >> i think these are always listing assessments. it's not that it is wrong. but 70% confidence that this is what will happen. still 30% where it doesn't happen. >> how far are we from a day

where you attach this to just automated training? based on what the model spits out? therefore, you sort of plants the whole ecosystem. >> i think that is certainly coming. it is hard to say there is something so special about this intelligence that we should be better at training. >> it is hard to say there is something so special as human intelligence? >> what i mean to say is that if you are able to give the system so much compute power and the intelligence continues to improve, at some point, it is not crazy to think the systems will be better at trading then humans are. >> and tired trading floors. >> this is not tomorrow obviously. >> what are we talking about here? >> everything we have so far forecasted, happen faster then we expected. >> i know. but if you are a real estate guy in new york city and you own buildings -- >> if you are a trader in new

york city and your living on one of these trading floors watching us now, how long will you do that for? >> i would say the horizon you are looking at is probably between 5-10 years where i think you will have a meaningful impact from systems like this. it doesn't mean it will replace it entirely but you will start to see the impact of this. and be better in certain areas than others depending on the complexity of the instrument and the amount of data you have available for some things versus others. some markets will be harder because it is not as easy to get the data as it is for public markets. >> astonishing. >> wow. good to know. thank you for coming in. >> thank you for having me. >> i want to take a final check on the markets. take a look at the features. we have red on the screen the dow off 226-point mastic opening down 103-point the s&p looking like it will open off by about 27 points.

flipping it around to treasure and showing you bitcoin as well. and tenure notice, 4.629. tenure, 4.3. hours. i'll see you tomorrow. happy boxing day, folks. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm with brian sullivan today. carl and david have the morning off. we have a full day of trading here coming up. we're headed to a lower start. santa claus rally looked so good before the holiday. we'll see if it can continue and things turn around. we're in the five final trading days of the year. that's