and showing you bitcoin as well. and tenure notice, 4.629. tenure, 4.3. hours. i'll see you tomorrow. happy boxing day, folks. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm with brian sullivan today. carl and david have the morning off. we have a full day of trading here coming up. we're headed to a lower start. santa claus rally looked so good before the holiday. we'll see if it can continue and things turn around. we're in the five final trading days of the year. that's the santa claus rally.

nasdaq futures have been a winner. as i mentioned, a lower open after back-to-back gains for the holiday shortened trading week. >> even as microstrategy which is a software company. that's really a bitcoin play. plans to issue more shares. let's talk about apple's melt-up. but, sara, apple may do something that it has not done at any time since 2010. >> it can do that anywhere. >> yes. >> before we get to the markets, brian, we do have some news about you. >> yes. >> there is an announcement. you are joining kelly evans as the anchor of "power lunch"

every day. >> yes. it is exciting for everybody but kelly. kelly is awesome. the show team is great, and i look forward to it. >> i know there have been different iterations of "power lunch." any show that's on during the market hours these days is an exciting show. >> we will both commute during the morning and at night. >> and you have a big commute, which is very far away. >> which i do sometimes in the city. but i look forward to it. by the way, we have today. >> we have today, a few hours left. so lucky me. >> and it looks like we are starting for a lower open today. look, it's been a good ride overall for the year. i don't think anybody came into the year expecting the s&p 500 to be up 26%. 57 times the s&p has closed at record highs this year. >> it sounds like an rbi, random

but interesting. we can use that. >> is that a brian sullivan mark segment? it's not random. it's pretty relevant. >> all right. we have some lecoming up. here's the question. with last year's gains and this year's gains, what does it mean for next year? does it bode well for 2025? or are the gains we're making now, are they stealing -- not stealing, pulling. pulling gains from next year. i think that's, dare i say, the only question we have to make today. >> the earning expectations have been stable. growth expectations have also been higher or stable. we just got jobless claims. again, nothing on jobless claims. we're still at historically low levels, signaling americans are keeping their jobs. >> i want to talk about currencies. >> oh, okay. >> and i want to talk about bond

use. because the one thing i would say and the market hasn't even opened yet and i'm already ruining boxing day/hanukkah. we look at the ten-year yield. bond market and stock markets are open today. the ten-year yield is moving back up. we were below 4% a couple of years ago. look at that, 4.64% on the ten-year. >> this is year to date. >> year to date. off the base in early september. and i just wonder. >> what happened in september, by the way? feds started cutting rates. >> the one thing i think you and i agree on greatly is that i both think we agree that that half a point cut in september was weird. >> it was weird. not only that, i think the cut they did last week was weird as well, given all of the direction and the data is pointing to an economy that is resilient and inflation that is a little bit sticky on the path from 3% to

2%. >> i'm not sure in the -- when i started doing this job they used typewriters. i'm not sure i have heard a fed chair speak of the economy at the same time as cutting rates by 25, a quarter point, i get it. not the half point bazooka. doing the half point cut in september. and the bond market -- do you know what the bond market said? we don't necessarily believe you, i think, fed and jay powell. >> markets fighting the fed. i think a lot of people will find it odd that as the fed is finally cutting interest rates, the mortgage rates are going up and their credit card rates are going up because that's the market rate and that is the effect of what you just showed, the ten-year yield rising in september. it's higher on the year. >> it is an important point you are making. a lot of people -- everybody

should watch cnbc all day long every day. for those that don't, by the way, i get it. >> i don't. >> you may be wondering, why are we paying 9.5% on a used car loan, 26% on a credit card debt? why is my mortgage still at 6.5% or 7% depending on my credit rating? the federal reserve can say what it wants, but he wants to come back as the bond market takes revenge and the bond vigilantes are back. >> well, look. we're near the highest level since 2022. probably not what the fedex pekted or wanted to see as the fed began lowering interest rates. a lot of it can be explained by the fact that the economy has done better than expected. that's a continual theme from the entire year, that inflation remained a little bit sticky. and the outlook for next year on rate cuts has been trimmed by a lot. the fed itself went from expecting four cuts next year

to -- >> imagine the change they could have in two to three months. >> when the data changed, the facts changed. >> what might happen between then -- >> we have an election. >> i was talking about christmas, actually. >> that, too. >> it was yesterday. >> the outlook has improved a lot. you are right. the election has been a game changer in terms of outlook for the economy, for regulations, for lower taxes, dead issuance, but also government efficiency and cuts. we'll see if that really results in something the market can hang on to. >> the department of government efficiency that musk and vivek ramaswamy are -- i think congress might have something to say. my parents live outside of washington, d.c. >> you're from everywhere. >> well, i like to move around.

i do like to move around. so i went to high school out west of d.c. used to be in the shenandoah valley. now it is a d.c. suburb. d.c. has just grown. 6 of the 10 richest suburbs in america are in d.c. so what about the -- quickly -- what about the u.s. dollar? interest rates on the move. that's your move. you wrote a book on currencies. >> yes. thank you for saying that. it is still on amazon. currency after the crash. shameless plug. the dollar is strong. the dollar is strong against -- look at what happened. that's really an election story because they haven't been doing much all year and then start taking off. this is on president-elect trump's plans. it makes the u.s. defamation of capital. tariffs are considered also

dollar positives versus our trading partners like a mexico or canada. china currency has been weak. we're the envy of the world right now in the growth arena. and then also, you know, america first policies tend to benefit the u.s. dollar. that will be a head wind for corporate earnings. >> so we talked about coming back to the stock market. as you said, by the way, stocks overall have been good. certain stocks, which reminds me of a movie from the '90s, all these moves, oracle. >> was it "superbad"? we're different generations. >> they're an ad tech business. >> i don't know. but the stock is up 600% this year. >> well, it is part of the a.i. theme. they provide developers with

tools to monetize their apps and they're growing 30% a year. >> we didn't need it all five years ago. now we can't live without it. >> this is a company that just went public in 2021. microstrategy we know, the cult of michael sailor who just continues to buy bitcoin. palantir. the best story has been a.i. robinhood, that's been a crypto story, right? and so there is obviously common themes. it is a.i. it is semiconductors. it is crypto. >> all these things we just showed, throw that back up. we have tom lee. he can answer those questions in a second. a lot of those names all have one thing in common and extensive energy use. microstrategy, bitcoin. they benefit off the ecosystem that, for the most part, uses

massive amounts of energy. it comes back to boring fossil fuel, i think, fuelling the rally. >> we're going to ask you about emergency, too. i want a full deep dive on energy. but let's stick with the broader markets for now. santa claus rally kicked off on tuesday. but erasing december losses. we're actually positive now on the month. let's see if it can continue. 86% of respondents forecast more games ahead for big cap stocks in the new year. tom lee, global advisers co-founder joins us now to break it all done. you have been on the market for a long time now. tom, do you think the games continue? yes, i think there is a lot more tail winds building for markets in 2025 than existed in 2024, mainly because, you know, now we're not worrying about the fed

worrying about inflation and bringing a halt to an economy. we have an election that's behind us. and now we have a lot of cash on the sidelines. and i think companies finally having more courage and what i think we call animal spirits and a willingness to start to do mergers and capital markets that help stocks this year. >> but, and we were just talking about this, treasury yields at the highs of the year, dollar at the high of the year. those two things have acted as headwinds for stocks in the past. >> yes. i mean, that's been a foil for markets to an extent. to me, i think yields even at around 5% still aren't really that damaging to markets because that means you are paying 20 times for a ten-year bond. and in some ways i think, you know, it is not clear why yields have been rising. it could be inflation. it could be the robust economy. it could be markets concerned about, you know, the incoming

administration's policies around tariffs, et cetera. so it is something i'm watching. but i don't think it is a foil even at 5%. >> tom, first off, happy new year. good to have you on. how much of the rest of the world's problems benefitting the united states? sorry ara eluded to it at the t. the united states is the greatest economy in the world. the entire german deck, their dow jones industrial average, add up all the biggest companies in germany, total them altogether, they are not as big as just apple or nvidia by itself. how much has europe's woes, china's woes, how much has that benefitted the u.s. economy, benefitted the u.s. stock market, if at all? >> i mean, it is hard to link causality. most stocks outside the u.s. are

small and midcaps. and i think it's the u.s. has really seen companies make the bets in the right places. the u.s. dominates technology, healthcare and financials. those have really been the strongest industries and the ones that benefit from technology. and the u.s. edge is enormous. outside the u.s., are there thousands or dozens of great technology companies? there really aren't. so i think in 2025, however, if industrials start to do better, then i think europe and asia start to outperform. but i think if it's a tech-led market, it is really going to be u.s. >> all right. do you worry? i mean, we showed some of these gains. tom, you don't worry about a whole lot of things. when we're looking at stocks, okay, there are paradigm shifts that bring in a lot of money to new things. is there any part of tom lee,

not the drummer, that does worry that things are a little bit high at 40 times forward earnings on many of these, like an oracle, a name that we didn't talk about much for years? >> i mean, at some point valuations becomes a liability when the market isn't able to be surprised or the market has overpaid for future growth. but to me the last couple of years is really a story where investors have been underpaying for technology and the amount of innovation. i think 2025 is a year where we will find the a.i. and a lot of these applications actually do sort of rearchitect the way america does business and it's vastly cheaper and that's why these companies are doing so well. you're right. at some point it is a bubble. i don't really think that's the word yet because i don't find

that much in our clients. i think valuations aren't really a problem just yet. >> one point i will raise on the call for small caps, tom, which a lot of people were on the small cap bandwagon this year, and there were times this weeked. if december is a preview of what's to come, small caps were down in december. the s&p has gone flat. everyone hopes this was the time where the rally would broaden out. but when the fed tear back how many rate cuts they will get, small caps didn't work. what makes you think this would be the year? >> that's a spirited observation, sara. small caps really are probably the best expression of when they believe the fed is cutting for the right reasons and it wasn't restless in december. i do think small caps may have

not hit the peak yet. but their underperformance is 91 percentage points versus the s&p. it is the second worst ten-year underperformance since 1998. and then before that -- >> that's not necessarily bullish for the right reasons, right? >> it's super bullish because if you go back to 1900, it is the second worst in history. if you take the three worst instances, never have small caps underperformed the last three years or five years. so what we've done is discounted so much bad news, there is so much skepticism. they haven't worked, so they're not going to work. they're trading and they will benefit from deregulation. 49% of small caps are cyclical stocks which are really trying to do good next year. i think the probablies are high

at a time when skepticism was high. isn't that what fang was in 2023? i remember somebody saying they're done and they just put in the two best years, i think, anyone could have ever expected. >> sentiment is key. and by the way, faang having a great year this month and next month, too. thank you, tom lee. happy holidays. good to see you. how will companies use a.i. in 2025? golden sacks has more predictions. more "squawk on the street" when we come right back. it's time.

yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday, more dog people are deciding it's time to quit the kibble and feed their dogs fresh food from the farmer's dog. made by vets and delivered right to your door precisely portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. ♪♪ (vo) memory and thinking issues keep piling up? it may seem like normal aging whose time has come.

but could be due to a buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain. the sooner you talk to your doctor, the more options you may have. learn more at amyloid.com. z's bakery is looking to add a pizza oven, arissa's hair salon wants to expand their space, and steve's t-shirt shop wants to bring on more help. with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee, they can think more about possibilities for their business and not the cost of their internet. it's five years of gig-speeds and advanced security. all from the company with 99.9% network reliability.

get the 5-year price lock guarantee, now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™. welcome back. 9:21 on the east coast on december 26th. after a huge year for artificial intelligence, what is in store next year? i don't know. kate probably knows because she

read the goldman sachs report. >> great to see you in person, guys. so i did speak to the bank's top executive who shared his outlook on a.i. he spoke to goldman's chief information officer. nokia now handles told man's a.i. efforts. he said right now it feels like the emergence of cloud when he was at amazon, but faster. he said he's never seen anything like this in terms of the pace of development. he said the biggest surprise this year was this check moving beyond which chatbots into mult. he says that next year fortune 500 companies will start to deploy this in a much more impactful way and it will eventually evolve into a new hybrid workforce with a.i. agents working alongside people. >> you might think of the future

of the workforce where you are going to have managers that will manage both human employees and a.i. employees. you might have the role of human capital management functions that are going to become human and machine capital functions that are going to be working on both evolving the career of humans and also evolving the career of a.i. >> our gen z says will there be an emergence of a.i. experts that have a niche specific type of industry knowledge. think of banking, for example, in the case of goldman sachs. he is expecting major robotics makers. he said a.i. safety will become a bigger priority on company boards. and then large language model commoditization. the data the companies train off will really start to emerge as an edge, guys. >> is it going to change the world now or later? because it doesn't seem like

it's ready for prime time yet. >> it's got to help margins at some point in order for this narrative to continue. so i think there is a lot of pressure for this to actually start to impact normal companies, not just tech companies if that doesn't happen. i think it takes some of the air out of what's going on here. >> well, it will be a fun year for you. lovely to have you here. taking a look at futures here as we count you down to the opening bell. more "squawk on the street" when we come right back. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we

could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. to go further, you need to be ready for what's down the road. as energy demand continues to rise, we're harnessing breakthrough innovations to increase production in the u.s. gulf of mexico. our latest deepwater development, anchor, produces previously inaccessible oil and natural gas, allowing us to deliver the energy we all need today so everyone can follow their own road. that's energy in progress.

♪ for me, squawk box is breakfast with the most interesting people in the world. >> it is a privilege to get to talk to them every day. >> it is more entertaining than >> it is more entertaining than

[cheerful music] [phone ringing] not all multimillionaires build their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the boot strapper. the boot maker. hee-ha. but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice, every day, over a million multi-millionaires, trust schwab with more than three trillion dollars of their wealth. ♪♪

the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income and responsible investing. >> we've got a nice little crowd here on the stock exchange the day after christmas. we're looking at the opening bell on the cnbc real-time exchange at the big board. columbia university football team celebrating its championship. make-a-wish granting wishes for children with critical illnesses. important work that they do. look at the trading here. we had a good day on tuesday. that was the day the markets went early. that was the technical start of the santa claus rally.

the s&p is operating a third lower. >> so i don't want to be the angel of doom on the first full day of hanukkah, but here's the thing. there was a note out. i think it was btig. forgive me, whoever it was. if the market does not rally between now and the first trading day of january, so the next four or five days, it doesn't bode well for january. january tends to be down. so these next five days, and this is all history, folks. some people say it's voodoo. something ooo economic. so if the market does not rally between now and january 2nd or 3rd, then history says, the last couple years it doesn't bode well for january which doesn't bode well for the years. i'm not say it matters, but it's not something that doesn't matter. >> the hypothesis that january predicts the year performance. you can see.

one other stat that stood out on this. a santa claus rally, if we get one, does receive a 10.4 rally since world war ii according to sam stovall at cra. >> so going to carson group, i will see your data and raise you. if we have decline in these so-called, quote, santa claus rallies, january 5 out of the last 6 times has been negative. so if we go down the next few trading days, january tends to be negative. but, again, all that, what do they say that all the commercials? past performance is no guarantee and future result. also, we didn't have nvidia. we didn't have micro trends. we didn't have the markets and all the money going into these a.i. companies. >> we have a mix here on the winner's list today. some of the winners of the year,

apple is up again. technology is up again. also, some of the losers, we expect to see this. some of the losers playing catchup, like walgreens. this is a stock that lost 64.6% year to date, has not been a winner. >> well, there was a famous man named tom petty that said even the losers get lucky sometimes. here's the stat. remember at the top of the show i teased something on apple. you said what is it? i said, i'm going to wait. here we go. this is btig. apple has been up five -- it's been up 2% per week for five weeks in a row. so for five straight weeks, apple has risen more than 2%. it has never done that since 2010. so we are in a 14-year historical sort of outperformance cycle. >> just persistent strength. this idea that apple

intelligence will lead to upgrades, the new a.i. story. >> i don't know. but apple's stock, 2% gains five weeks in a row, the first time that has happened since 2010. it's not unlike the columbia football team which we have here. my friend mike doyle was a teammate for them. didn't do well, and now they won the ivy league. so it shows that you can turn things around. >> apple is up again. nvidia starting positive here, which is why information technology just went into the green. so let's see because typically when nvidia slips then we could see an entire market slip. by the way, web bush increased its price target to the street high on apple to $325. he's been outfront on this super cycle team. he says believe apple is heading

into an upgrade cycle that is still being underestimated even with that performance by the street. rome wasn't built in a day and either was apple's a.i. strategy. but the seeds are now forming. >> here's an interesting point for the billions of people that are now watching this program, right? billions. will you go out and pay $1,000 for a few iphone because it has a.i.? i don't mean artificial intelligence. i mean apple intelligence. will you spend that money on this to get -- and if the answer is yes, then maybe there is something to that. if the answer is no, i don't know. >> that's one of the bets, right? the other is there is another replacement cycle coming. that's why i got a new one. i also wanted a pink one, so i got that. but that's part of the bull case on apple. >> so you have the a.i.

functionally. >> right. and i haven't really played with the a.i. functionality. it was replaced as a software update. >> give us the review, just as a consumer, not as a tv news anchor. >> i don't know. i use chatgpt. >> you do? who is brian sullivan? what does it say? >> they know who you are. you have a biography online. >> i have many biographies online. who is sara eisen? >> i did scott for christmas, what should we buy scott for christmas, and they had a whole list of things. cuff links, i think, was one of them. >> was it really? a new tie. >> financial textbooks or something nerdy like that. >> but seriously, that's the question. are you willing to spend $1,000 on one of these? and by the way, big article

about how microsoft is forcing this new co-pilot a.i. technology on people like this. we use outlook here at work. it is not our choice. and the co-pilot always comes up even if you don't want it to. >> right. >> can they make money on that? >> by the way, $264.63. that would be apple hitting the 43 mark. apple $264.63. so not too far away. >> i wonder if apple a.i. on your phone would know that. >> i wonder. we can play with it later. >> that was a cue. i want to test it. >> i don't use it. i don't use the apple intelligence yet. >> all right. so let's move on. $264.63 is the $4 trillion note. >> correct. >> you never know. apple has been on a heck of a run. let's switch gears. call it a christmas miracle. netflix's big bet on the nfl

appears to have paid out. they will air its first two nfl games, all part of a three-year deal. more relevantly, it marks netflix's first move into football and a shift into live sports. let's be honest, the weird and glitchy jake paul/mike tyson fight earlier this year. i don't know if you watched it. we watched it off and on. cbs actually produced it. we'll see if this $150 million for two games ultimately pays off for netflix. >> they did it big, the beyonce concert was like a super bowl halftime show with all the people that joined her, and it was quite a spectacle. and they didn't have technical glitches, which is, i think, important for netflix. >> at the beginning they talked to the "squid game 2" promo. >> it's coming back tonight. >> is it tonight?

>> very exciting. >> i will watch the end of "bad sisters." you should watch it. >> do you watch "squid games"? >> i'll watch it alone on planes because it is a little bit violent. but i will say this, netflix $150 million for two games. here, again, it comes down to a simple question, sara. will the public and people out there that do not yet pay for netflix sign up for netflix to see an nfl game? because if they don't, all the money they're spending doesn't get them much unless they're factoring in the people that would have left netflix due to a lack of hits. i don't know. >> the one thing that didn't help was taylor was not at the game, but they did get beyonce at the game. some of the winners adding to gains. we mentioned apple. nvidia, microsoft. so we have a bid in some of

these movers. tesla is down just a little bit. it's been a big winner. let's get to bob. >> brian, good to see you. and congrats on working with kelly. look forward to seeing you on that show as well. a mixed market. take a look at consumer staples. honestly, on the downside. had a good year. technologies down about 25%. banks had a good year. but very good december. utilities a good year but a bad december. so we're approaching the end of the year. i will tell you what i see here. the advanced decline line is something you want to pay attention to. we have had a good line. two-thirds of the s&p 500 are up on the here. one-third are down. if you look at the top there, 53, that's 10% of the s&p is up 10% or more. those are terrific numbers. and only 51, that's 10% are

down. you see the options there. this is a good dispersion. generally a line like this, two-thirds on the upside, you are normally on an up year. the fact the biggest stocks are up the most makes a huge amount of difference. a lot of people thought it would be passe in 2024. that has not proven to be the case. here you see the big names here. i'm going to the old max 7 year. nvidia, broadcom, meta, amazon, they're all up 50% or more. only microsoft is underperforming the s&p 500 with the s&p up about 27%. that's the only one of the magnificent seven underperforming. because these are the biggest stocks, there is a large influence on the markets. you still have to try to explain the influence. here is the simplest way to understand it. what percentage of that is through the magnificent seven? about 53% of the gains are due to the magnificent seven. half of the 27%, 53% is because

of seven stocks. the other 493, well, they're responsible for 46% of the gains. this is sort of the simplest way to understand the tyranny of large cap stocks that exist and how they exert influence on the stock market today. you were talking about apple. i know sara was bringing this up. a lot of questions about how do you get to $4 trillion. there is 50 billion shares outstanding, common shares outstanding. that's how the s&p calculates this. to reach that, you need $264.63, as sara mentioned, and there you see the number of where you are. so we're short of where we need to get to. how big is $4 trillion? i tried to figure out and explain to people how big $4 trillion is. here's a simple way to understand it. so we've got $3. trillion right now. the midcap is 400.

400 spots in the midcap. everything below the s&p 500 is $3.1 trillion. apple is bigger than the other 400 midcap stocks put together. how about the small caps? that's $1.5 trillion. put it together here. 3.1 trillion on the midcap. you get 4.6 trillion. apple is not quite as big as the mid and small caps together, but not far away. apple is almost not quite as big as the 1,000 stocks in the s&p stocks that are not in the s&p 500, small and midcaps. that's kind of a way to look at how dominant apple and really the biggest ten stocks in the s&p are. sara? >> okay. when you put it in that perspective, it is really, really big. thank you, bob. just want to hit some other movers today where there is news. u.s. steel continues. the latest here is that nippon steel, which is trying to take over u.s. steel, has pushed back, delayed its close or its

target close for this acquisition. it is now aiming for first quarter 2025 instead of the end of 2024. why is this important? so we're in this period now, this waiting period where it is up to president biden to decide whether this deal will be able to go through. we got word earlier this week that the committee inside of treasury that decides on whether a deal like this can happen because of national security concerns was split, ultimately, in their decision. so president biden has said publicly he wants to deep u.s. steel domestic instead of being taken over by a japanese company. yeah. so there is not a lot of mystery about what he's going to do. the question and certainly with this decision is what sort of legal options and will they fight to be able to hold it over into a trump administration now that we have this new close date in 2025? now president-elect trump also

said publicly he's against the deal. this is a politically charged one, but he is spending a lot of time with business leaders at mar-a-lago and industry leaders. i wonder if there is a potential for a deal year. the union has been against the deal. >> i think it is one of the things where the trump and biden administration are very much aligned. >> right now they are. >> on this type of deal. and the ceo loves it when i call the company. that's for you, lorenzo, has strong views on this as well. keeping this domestic is a policy priority. bob, i love his stats. 4 trillion. same size as the german economy. this year, i'm looking right now live because we are live, right? we are live. we are live. real-time data this year, there is 11 s&p sectors inside the

market. financials and utilities on december 26th are exactly up the same amount, 27.01% with a couple of trading days left. financials, utilities, top two performing sectors of the exact same amount. >> and a pretty healthy amount. >> it is. but the exact same amount with a couple days left. >> i think the bullish stories are interesting. for utilities, it has been the power and electricity. this is one of the best performing stocks of the entire year. it is right up there with nvidia. and then financials, their outlook has frightened on the outlook for mna. redeg ration, they're very much caught in the cross hairs of regulation from congress. they're probably going to look at a slew of republican regulators across the occ and cftv very differently.

>> you are just troeing out acronyms now to show off. the top performing financial company is actually not a bank. apollo global management. number two is kkr, a massive private equity firm. they're up 82% and 86% this year. think about the gains in apollo. what does that tell you about the markets' view in interest rates, deal making, deal flow and money flows? that means the market is bullish at private credit. >> that's been a big story for them of them and apollo. >> just keeps buying sports teams. your buddy josh harris. >> yes. >> bought the commanders. look at them. they're good this year. >> they are good. the ceo of campbell soup will lead the commanders. >> is that true? >> yes. >> what's going on with your bengals? is it burrow's hair. >> didn't they get better? >> yes, they're getting much better. >> i know. it is disappointing as a team,

not burrow. before we head to break, it is time for bond report. again, the story has been higher yields and bonds selling off. from december, really since the feds start cutting rates in september. the ten-year yield elevated near 2022 levels at 4.6%. did get better jobless claim this is morning. other wide, a light data week. we'll be right back here on "squawk on the street." i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models.

oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah. (intercom) flight deck we are go for launch! (ethan) is that the one? (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...is that a walk in closet? (ethan) i want those tiles! (intercom) boosters engaged. (ethan) wait! we've got a problem! (janet) problem?! (ethan) how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (tanya) no, no! bad timing, janet!!! (janet) but that was the one!!!! (brian) no, no, no... opendoor!! (tanya) don't open the door. (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (all) really?

(brian) yea!!! (intercom) we have liftoff. (janet) nice! (janet) houston we have a playroom!

all right. welcome back. we are talking a lot about what has been hot so far in the last month or so. guess what has not been hot. that is energies. it is down 11% overall so far this month. the price of oil has come down. i know many of you driving around over the holidays maybe paid $2.60, $2.70, $2.80 for gas. they are down 16, 17, 18 and 27%

this month as the price of oil and gasoline, but not natural gas. more "squawk on the street" live at the nyc.

z's bakery is looking to add a pizza oven,

arissa's hair salon wants to expand their space, and steve's t-shirt shop wants to bring on more help. with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee, they can think more about possibilities for their business and not the cost of their internet. it's five years of gig-speeds and advanced security. all from the company with 99.9% network reliability. get the 5-year price lock guarantee, now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™. doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened.

with disney stock on pace for its best year since 2020, the pressure is on for a box office rebound. let's get to julia with that story. >> good morning. disney is back in its number one market share spot after falling behind universal last year. this is a massive 2025 for disney, which could lead the whole industry back to pre-pandemic box office levels. they have three of the top five films, "moana 2," "inside out 2" and "deadpool and wolverine." "the complete unknown" opened yesterday. the next will be the ultimate test of bob iger's focus on turning around the studio as it

expands to 12 releases next year, including the sequel to captain america and avatar, which is disney's best slate since before the pandemic. while they face pressure to turn franchises into new block busters. the disney shares have lagged since iger restructured the company two years ago and prioritized improving the quality of disney films, which are key not just for the profitability of the studio, but they drive content and engagement at the disney+ platform. >> okay. thank you very much, julia. by the way, we saw "sonic 3" yesterday because the kids wanted to see that more than "mufasa". >> big names, by the way. they've got jim carrey back. >> oh, yeah. he was hilarious. >> he did double duty. >> and you had edris alba.

people don't realize he's actually british. i think keanu reeves played shadow. >> the kids loved. >> that's all that matters. >> 7-year-old and 5-year-old. when we come back, we will look at what president-elect trump's incoming administration could mean. that's up next.

good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with bill sullivan. stocks giving a little back

after a rally. it's broad, every sector is lower. technology is outperforming, and it was higher a few moments ago, but now it's lower. some of the gainers in there, apple, again, higher. invidia around the blood line. broadcom up almost 50% this month. nasdaq down a third of one percent. the treasury, big debate if it's a head wind or not. the yields push higher. 4.631 the highest since 2022 despite the fed is cutting rates. last week the fed hinted fewer rates to come for the new year. three big movers we are. watching.

more volatility. nippon steel delaying the takeover date because of the ongoing review in washington. panel was deadlocked over whether to approve the sale, leaving the final call to president biden. he and president-elect trump are both opposed to the deal. the street is still underestimating demand for a.i. powered iphones, within striking distance of the $4 trillion market cap. we are watching for that level. 364 or 26463 is the cap. brian, i wanted to start with better than expected data on the u.s. consumer. tracking the spending in the holiday season, just putting out the numbers today, showing 3.8% increase from last year, from november 1 through december 24. that's good news.

the consumer they say is willing and able to spend, but driven by the search for value that can be seen in concentrated e-commerce spending as well. when you break down the numbers more, online spending 6.7% growth from last year online verses 2.9% in store taking out autos. apparel, goods, which has been a weaker part of the spending picture, rebounded this year, good to see, and restaurants, which is the services part, which we know people prioritize, up really strong. take it together, and you have the consumer in good shape, judging by the holiday shopping trend. >> the spending is continuing unabated. i have been worried about credit cards. i have been massively wrong. the u.s. economy continues to go. the question to your point at the top, combining the macro themes, holiday weekend, and at

the top of the show, sara talked about a big backup in yields, and it's true. 4.63 or whatever on the ten year. that means your credit card rates, mortgage loans, auto loans, interest rates rise as well. if you were betting on the idea, don't worry the fed is cutting the rate and we will pay less for big ticket items f you're relying, the market says hold my beer. we have something to tell you. we don't think the federal reserve in the near term will be correct, and it will cost more money to borrow money. it's not impacted the consumer yet, sara, not at all. the question is, ever, i guess, will it? >> at what level does it stand as a headwind for growth? >> the other question, why is it happening? there's a lot of questions why the treasury yields rise. is the market going to worry about the 2% target? better economic prospects. that's when the yields rise for the right reasons.

the survey we did, delivering the survey cnbc does, asking investors about the economy and the outlook, stood out to me on that. president-elect trump's economic policies, we asked about that. 71% say he will be great for the economy and markets. 29%, policies won't be good for the economy and the market. it's the biggest of the results i have saw. the biggest majority we have seen. 71% saying better for the economy and the markets, and that can be reflected in the rising yields. >> fair enough, but dare i say i shall trump that -- there did you see that? >> i did. you're good like that. >> that's all i do. >> love it. >> i will raise you this graphic. one of the president-elect's primary economic policies is tariffs. >> sure. >> you're saying 71% say in delivering the survey that trump will be good for the economy. look at this. the question is this, folks, on the radio, president-elect

threats to raise tariffs will help the american economy, hurt the american economy? the answer is exactly split 50% of you, half of you said good. half of you said bad. how do we square that with the previous graphic where 71% of the people said donald trump will be good? >> because tariffs aren't the only economic policy. deregulation, lower taxes, and the view is, i think from the markets and the respondents is net-net better for the economy. no one knows how to look at the tariffs. will he actually go through with them? and will it add more domestic production and u.s. jobs? or will it hurt the american consumers because our prices go up with importers paying more? it's one component. >> these are great questions. why don't we get answers. >> let's do it. our next guest says 2024 has been a standout year for the stocks and there could be challenges for 2025.

mark moody is joining us now. how do you view the net effect of the trump economic policy? >> negative. i mean, if i were going to answer the question on markets in the economy, i would say -- >> is it because you're a democrat, mark? >> no. i'm an economist. >> okay. >> i am going to answer it this way, so this may change your question. i think he is good for the market. i think he's good for the -- trump policy is good for the stock market. corporate tax cuts going to the shareholders. less regulation, helping financial stocks, and fossil fuel stocks and utilities, and more m&a in the acquisition, that's good for stocks. policies are good for stocks, but i just don't think they are good for the economy. i think the economy will be diminished by the broad-based tariffs that, i think is settled. i don't think there's any

debate there. it depends how aggressive he is on raising tariffs, on whom, and for how long. deportation is not good either. the market full employment, asking people to leave the labor market, and you create inflation. by the way, i think the market reflects my views. the key reason, higher expectations, and higher deficit, and i think bond investors are on the same page i'm on. >> it could also be a reflection of better economic growth prospects, and you start to throw out g regulation, but there are others. we spoke to david zerbos a few days ago saying underestimating the impact of deregulations. the president has put people in place from the business world who know how to grow. >> yeah, i'm skeptical. look, show me one academic study, any study that has been

able to coect the dots between regulation and macro economic outlook condition or growth. yes, it certainly helps if you have less regulation, helps the sectors, certain businesses, but from a broader macro perspectives with jobs and gdp, i have not been able to connect the dots. i haven't seen anyone else connect the dots. a u.s. business person, i run a business as well. we have a business. for me, what matters about regulation is that it's clear. there's a bright yellow line, and i know exactly what the regulation is, and please, please don't change the regulations. once you do, you make life very difficult for business people. regulation matters, but what really matters to most business people, a clear, transparent set of regulations, and don't change it. >> why did the federal reserve cut rates by half a percent in

september? >> they should, brian, because they achieved their mandates. inflation back within spending distance, all trend lines looking good there. it's not coming in quite as fast as everyone hoped for, but it's coming in, and it will be there. you have achieved your goals, and therefore the federal target for the federal patrols should be at the rate. if you tell me it's closer to 4%, where we are today, that sounds about right to me. the question we have to see, 5.5% is not the right number. why take the chance of undermining the financial system and the broader recovery when you achieved your goal? that was the logic, and i think it was a sound logic. >> yeah the recalibration argument. the question is, mark, what will they be able to do on the

front nextyear? they have eight meetings and penciling in two cuts. >> my sense, the rate cuts were over for awhile. going back to the tariffs and the deportations, and those are the negative supply stocks. higher inflation and diminish the economic growth. you are seeing, which do i respond to? inflation or growth? the answer, i don't know. we have to see how it plays out and see what president trump has in mind and how he will pursue the policies. i'm not going to cut any interest rates until i have a clearer sense of what he has in mind in where the economy is headed. we are not going to figure that out for awhile. i don't expect rate cuts the first half of the year or the second half of the year either. we have to wait and see how it plays out. >> hopefully we will talk to you a lot between now and then, mark. happy holidays.

>> next time, no more politics. we are beyond politics, sara. >> i didn't mean to accuse of politics, but you have done economic analysis. >> i have worked on the mccain campaign and been on both sides of the aisle here, and i still am. >> all right, good. just going for transparency. mark, thank you from moody analytics. our road map for the rest of the hour, software standouts, and the big names making key moves to round out the year. what's behind the surge? no love for the cannabis stocks seven years running. pot is legal. you smell it everywhere. i'm high right now. >> i would believe it. >> just walking aren't the city. some investors are holding out hope for a rebound. we will find out why. the imax ceo bringing his expectations for the box office. "squawk on the street" back after a break.

z's bakery is looking to add a pizza oven, arissa's hair salon wants to expand their space, and steve's t-shirt shop wants to bring on more help. with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee, they can think more about possibilities for their business and not the cost of their internet. it's five years of gig-speeds and advanced security. all from the company with 99.9% network reliability. get the 5-year price lock guarantee, now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™.

strong end to the year for software stocks. the igb on pace for the best quarter of the year. 71% of respondents saying they would bet on software in the year. that was a reversal from some of the ways, seema. >> that's right. a number of analysts and strategists think there's a

number of tail winds that could fuel the rally in 2025. showing a higher willingness with clients to spend on technology this year verses last. 45% indicating their tech budgets are expected to increase by 11% in the coming year while yes, gen-ai is playing a role, analysts saying spend will benefit the cloud players in 2025 as the focus turns to not just building the infrastructure but monetizing the software layer of a.i. as it relates to a.i., service now offering large customer metrics on the most recent call suggesting their a.i. product revenue crossing $100 million.

salesforest noting 200 wins, and snowflake now accounts for 400 accounts with the a.i. product iceland. that's where companies are talking about the progress they are seeing, and wall street is gauging what influence the silicon leaders will have on the white house with a number of former executives joining trump's team. in addition to elon musk, christian was just appointed a policy adviser on a.i. adventures' team thinks sacks will speed track the a.i. helping companies to speed up their development. guys, back to you. >> very interesting cabinet there. a lot of names familiar to cnbc viewers. seema, thank you. let's stay on red hot technology. for the most part, technology overall continues to pop into the new year.

in fact, here is an rbi. random and interesting. look at apple. apple within a worm's hole of a $4 trillion market cap. apple need $264.63. 264.63 and it hits $4 trillion. the next guest likes apple, but he's swapping it out as his top pick in tech for next year. barton crockett joining us. you're not an apple hater or apple basher. you just think there's more value in meta? >> correct, yes. we had apple as our top pick for the second half of last year, and respectable points on the board. up to close to 20% in that period, but at this point, you know, we are starting this year with our top pick for the first

half of '25, and our contribution is meta. we think that this the year when a.i. has to deliver results. we think we are getting that now at meta with the firing up of their ad sales really powered by a.i. we think that continues into the first half of next year. you have a stock that is reasonably valued and is putting up good growth, and we think that's the formula for another good start to next year for 2025 for meta. apple, we like, but we see a better opportunity at this juncture swapping into meta. >> i want to go back to meta and the price target. i was having eye problem as month ago. i'm shaking my head and looking at your price target and thinking am i still having vision issues? i'm not. your price target on meta is $811? that's a $600 stock. >> correct. correct. so, you know, we think there's

a good opportunity. at our price target, you know meta would be trading at high 20s pe. we think putting up earnings per share growth next year close to that kind of multiple. these guys are growing ad revenue close to 20%. they can grow the spending on a.i. and still expand margins next year. they are a good share purchaser. we think it's an incredibly strong setup for the a.i. theme expressed to meta right now. >> how much is riding on the nfl christmas show from netflix? i know you rated hold 680. also a really good year. what do you think of the prospect of live sports and what it may mean for the ad business? >> look, i think netflix is pivoting meaningfully into sports. i think they are doing surprisingly well with the ability to drum up interest in things like the tyson-paul

fight. we will see the final numbers for the nfl. i have read they talked about one-third of concurrent users streaming the game, the steelers' chiefs' game, and we are not sure what it translates into relative to the 30 million nearly audience we had last year on the christmas games on tv, and you know, but, if they are able to deliver better audience for sports on netflix than the tv guys can, then they have invented the better mouse trap. i think we are within hours maybe of getting more clarity on the nfl contribution to that with netflix. >> we will see it. either way, you're very, very bullish on meta. i know they are advertising heavily for the goggles. we will see if it pays off in sales. barton crockett, thank you. >> great, thank you. >> all right. looking for the scoop on the hottest tech gifts this season? steve says look no further than the app store. he is joining us with the

breakdown. what can you gleam from the app store? >> i like doing it every year because it tells us which tech company scored the biggest. the apple app store rankings for the top three apps, and you can see the velocity behind the apps, usually changing up on christmas day as people get their gadgets. first of all a good indication of what people are downloading with a new phone for christmas, and second of all, gadgets and accessories they need for a companion app. it shows or gives us a strong idea of the most popular over christmas. the big winner meta as brian was saying. the meta horizon app for the quest virtual reality headset. they have been the winners for the last few years as i have been tracking this. also the meta view for the

rayband glasses. lemonade from tiktok as high as number two yesterday ahead of the january 19th ban for tiktok. unclear if the lemonade app will be part of that, but it's made by tiktok, of course, owned by chinese company bytedance. alexa was number two late evening meaning a lot of echoes went on sale for the holidays and smart home appliances that need the app to set it up. another sign of devices selling well, the parent dashboard app for amazon. that's what you use to control your kids' devices from your iphone, likely kindle fire tablets. they sell cheap, and they are a great option for kids when you don't want to spend the money on an ipad that will be tossed around by a little kid. the fitness category, the ap for the oura ring was number 36. garmin slightly ahead of that for fitness trackers at 33. you may be asking why am i paying so much attention to

apple and the ios store? what about android? that's a different picture there. we looked at the google play store. that's not where a lot of money is spent in the app ecosystem at large. a pdf app was at the top. whatsapp and paypal were trending as the well. also the move to ios helping you move your android day to a new iphone was in the top 40, guys. >> huh. maybe we don't have a good sense of apple's own products and how they do. >> especially the watch app. it's preinstalled on the phone, so it's hard to tell. i will guess if a lot of garmin and oura were sold, apple will be there as well. sara, you may know this, tonys, are you familiar with that one?

>> no. >> ranked number two yesterday. two or three in the app store. it's like a smart speaker for kids, and you put these little figures on top. >> parents, i have a young kid, too, even though i'm older. >> not in the tonys group. i thought it was a surprise that snuck up on me. a lot of parents of young ids i know were in to it, too. >> you don't ave to parent anymore. you can do the app that steve talked about, and send them to the corner. >> do you use this? >> i don't even know what it is. i'm old now apparently. >> we will get one for you. >> my kid is like a year older than yours. >> i try to read to them. there's a man in virginia today whose father was born in 1863. i look every month and he's still alive. ed his grandfather in 1790. >> that's why we have you. that's what i call random but

interesting. steve, thank you very much. >> his grandfather was a president. >> really? >> you could write a book on this. clean energy on pace for the worst numbers. what's driving the action? more "squawk on the street" when we come back.

(animatric santa! (vo) time to move? make it easy with opendoor. sell your home in any season, for any reason. (animatronic santa) look at me! i am festive! (vo) start your move at opendoor.com

all right, welcome back. it's not quite 10:30 here, and we are live, and i love it because i'm sitting on "squawk on the street" meaning we are going to talk energy. let's talk renewables, clean energy. the icln is on pace for the worst year in more than a decade. okay, bad year. here's the question. next year, pippen stevens looking at energy as she does. pippen, what's wrong? everybody is talking about the topic, why aren't the equities and the etfs responding?

>> renewables are wrapping up with the energy fund dropping with the worst year since 2011. headed into 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty that could lead to another bumpy year. most important is the trajectory of the interest rates in the capital intensive businesses impacted by the cost of capital. investors may stay on the sidelines until there's more clarity in how president-elect trump will change the climate policy with a special focus on the fate of the inflation reduction act. there's still opportunities. solar has bucked the trend, in the green this year with the mote around t of sorts as the meaningful producer, and energy storage is another area to watch with rbc calling 2025, quote, the year of batteriesis

picks and shovels of the transition, which have outperformed this year. designing and installing projects including transmission lines. it's away to play broadly without focusing on one technology. to your point, there's the momentum at the energy transition, but the stocks have not shown any signs of life this year. >> it sounds like we could talk all we want about the benefit and the fundamentals of the business. right? we need this, and we will need that, but we really need to talk more about the interest rate story because from everything i'm hearing, sounds like that is the main reason, not the fundamentals, but the interest rate problem that these companies have? >> that's true. that's where we saw in 2020 and 2021 things were getter for the industry when money was essentially free. it requires a lot of upfront invest. you think of the offshore wind far, and you're borrowing

heavily. if interest rates go up, and you don't have a clause that says it has to keep up with that, you're left paying a whole lot more, and then on the consumer side of things f you want to install your rooftop panels t big investment up front. you will probably finance it. if rates are higher, it will mean you're paying more for the system, and especially given that these are now in place for a decade. why would you do it now if you think rates will come down? we have seen demand push up. sara? >> thank you. ahead the path ahead for 2025 numbers for a matter of sectors. we will get a former fed's take after a quick break. eds. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a

goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." now your cnbc news update. the kremlin is warning against

speculation that russia caused an azerbaijan airliner to crash. the plane was en route from baku to the russian city of grozny. it was diverted for reasons unclear before crashing in kazakhstan. it's speculated a russian mission defense system may be to blame. investigators are trying to term what caused the montana. the panama president says there's no chinese soldiers at the panama canal. it comes over president-elect trump raised concerns over the canal. the president said every square inch belongs to panama and will remain so. no one has claimed the winning mega millions jackpot on christmas eve. tomorrow's drawing jumped to $1.15 billion. potentially the fifth largest

in game history. want to buy a few? >> i'm in. >> only 600 million after taxes and fees. it's not worth it. the fed facing more pressure in 2025, not just from rate policies, but the largest u.s. banks suing over the central bank stress test and president-elect trump returning to office, setting up for a conflict potentially with powell. with us current senior fellow at george mason university, tom honick. i thought trump said he was cool with powell and doesn't plan to fire him, and then elon musk tweeted that the fed is overstaffed, and i wonder if there's a conflict brewing with the executive branch and the fed. what do you think? >> i think that the latter point in terms of elon musk should surprise no one, his new role is to cut wherever he can,

and so the fed is a big bureaucracy. it's large, and it should -- it probably should be looked at its own staffing levels to see if they are adequate or not, and i think the pressure coming from the white house and musk is not a bit surprising. we will see how it turns out. the fed is independent. i don't know if he can dictate it, but it will be a discussion, i'm sure. >> that's one point, and then there's what mark vande just told us from moody's. he thinks the market is telling us that the inflation outlook is getting more worrisome in to next year because of some of the trump policies that inflation is not only proving sticky, but with tariffs and some of the policies laid out, could go higher next year. do you interpret the bond market that way? do you think that's going to be a problem? >> i think the bond market, yes, is worried about the outlook of inflation and the pressure on the fed to continue

to lower rates which would be involved, their balance sheet as well. i think that puts uncertainty around the inflation, just on their own policies, and remember, right now, the fund rate of 4.25 and inflation around 2.5%, and the interest rate 1.75% which is in the neutral rate, not causing more inflation or taking it away, but in some people's minds, that's modestly easing. the outlook for more cuts, that's uncertain. with the interest rates where they are the strength of the economy, knowing what it looks like in the 3% fourth quarter and 3% third quarter, there will be a lot of momentum to push inflation higher. the one positive is the activity has been strong, 2%. if that continues that will give some relief. i think the market is rightfully concerned about the size of the debt and the

growing deficit, and the impact it has on the long-term bonds and what the fed will do it about. those are all question marks that don't have clear answers. >> let's dig into it a bit more, tom. i'm glad you brought it up. what is done is done. adding 7 trillion or 8 trillion in debt during covid. you can argue we needed it or didn't. it's over. it doesn't matter. 2.5trillion in debt added this year in 2024. trillions of that up for refinance i guess for lack of a better term, debt maturity, maturing like home mortgages in the united states. the bond market has had a huge yield movement in the last two months. is the bond market going to be able to absorb the refinancing of 5 plus trillion in new debt this coming here? >> well the bond market can absorb it, but the price is the question. >> fair point. to answer your own question?

>> yeah, well, the fed or excuse me, the government doesn't have the same disciplines on it that private industries do. you need a return on your money. here they have to pay more interest and more money to do it. this is what i think the bond market is concerned about, there will be pressure on the fed to end this sooner, and even begin to buy longer term and short-term debt to keep the interest rates rising from more than the congress wants or people want. the fact may be necessary if they are going to fund the government without more money. that's the challenge that lies ahead. it's a big challenge. >> i am wondering now that you're a step back and not involved about the communication of fed chair powell and the fact that we have had these days the 50 basis point fight that took a lot of people by surprise and the cut last week.

the communication really seemed to the market a bit. that or the outlook for rates, and what do you make of how powell has been talking the market through the rate cuts and what to expect? >> i think there's been a lot of confusion about it to be honest. i think that the 50 basis point cut was a bit of a surprise. you had the earlier share in the summer with some rational for that, i suppose. the recent 25 basis point in the last meeting was confusing. even in his explanation of it. the economy is growing strong. the unemployment at 4.2 is really full employment. a lot of momentum in the economy. the bond market is more concerned about inflation, i think. so his explanations were not entirely clear to me at least. i think maybe to others as well. that's something they have to think about, especially coming

into january and whether they hold or not or how they will explain it. with all of the uncertainty around that, they will have challenges ahead. i think they need to do better yes. >> tom, valuable to have your perspective. thank you very much. happy holidays. >> same to you. thanks for having me. >> the former kansas city fed president. still to come, a look at how the box office is shaping up with the ceo of imax. why he's bullish into 2025. don't go anywhere. hey, can you speak french? who, me? i know a few words. if you're struggling to speak a new language,

you should try babbel, a learning platform designed by over 200 language experts. it's like having your own personal language coach. babbel offers live classes with expert teachers for real world conversation practice. it's totally flexible so you can learn at your own pace and with the right practice and coaching, start speaking a new language in as little as three weeks. go to babble.com to claim your limited time offer today. ♪ [music] i could unlock my front door ♪ start speaking a new language in as little as three weeks. ♪ while i dine in baltimore ♪ ♪ no lock box to explain ♪ ♪ ♪ at 9:00 the doors would lock up ♪ ♪ save me from forgetful slip-ups ♪ ♪ if my home just had a brain ♪ ♪ ♪ i could make a custom pin ♪ ♪ watch the dog walker get in ♪ ♪ so ziggy won't complain ♪ ♪ ♪ when my in-law comes a-knockin' ♪ ♪ i can open, maybe lock it ♪ ♪ if my home just had a brain ♪

the holiday season coming to a close. what are the best buys for the new year? one of our options traders will be looking ahead to 2025 and telling us his plans for playing the market. tune in to our market navigator segment on power lunch at 2:00 p.m. eastern.

(♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com the holiday box office predicted to bring in as much as $280 million according to

deadline. falling just shy of christmas week 2021 post covid record. joining us is the imax ceo rich gelfond. how do you describe demand? >> i think since thanksgiving it's been terrific, sara, on a global basis not only domestically. you had the trifecta. every week during the period outdoing itselfs with those films, and thensonnic and mufasa right now. the great thing about this time of the year, every day is like a weekend, playing extremely strongly because the families are together, and they are off from school and going to family- type of movies as something that drives it. a lot of momentum at the end of the year. >> i think on imax you have mufasa right? what are you seeing? reporting early, coming in second to sonic, but it feels like a good one for an imax theater. >> i think it's performing

pretty much like we thought it would, sara. sonic more like the name brand, and i think it came out of the box stronger than mufasa domestically. what we saw on christmas day and christmas eve before that, mufasa is really bringing the families. we are 90 countries globally stronger than sonic, but i think both will do well. they are the right kind of movies for this time of the year. >> rich, we love to focus on america here. we love this great land of ours, but when i look at the box office numbers around the world, particularly china, it's mind blowing with movies have i never heard of. creation of the gods 2. , demonic confrontation. they could do 600, $700 million. how much does the chinese market, the market we never talk about, matter to you and

your stock? >> brian, you're raising a good point, which is they think domestic investors sometimes overly focus on one weekend or one movie, but we are in 90 countries around the world, and about 60%, maybe two-thirds of the box office is outside of the u.s., and i got notes on the first weekend saying sonic opened stronger than mufasa, did you make a mistake? no it's a different market. mufasa has done well nigh initially. the ones you mentioned have been two of the big movies for chinese new year this year in '25. chinese new year is a big part of the box office. so china did not have a great year in '24, but '25 led by the movies you described doing very well. even though most people don't know them. >> what about specifically films for the imax movies for

2025? what does your slate look like? >> our slate is fantastic for '25. about 13 of our films were filmed with imax cameras of some sort. the most we have ever had before is about half of that. to give you a context, we did " oppenheimer" and "dune" and overindexed. we did about 20% of the world's box office, less than 1% of the screens, and the film for imax movies into next year includes mission impossible, formula 1, how to train your dragon, superman, a bunch of really good marvel movies including fantastic 4. at the end of next year avatar 3. we are talking about it being a relatively good christmas, but avatar is unmatched in how it does at christmas time. >> well, rich, thank you for

joining us with the state of play for you and for the industry. appreciate it, and happy holidays. rich gelfond. >> thanks, you too, guys. thank you. >> thank you. coming up next hour, former chief of staff to vice president mike pence, his name is marc short, he will be here. he has some strong predictions for next year that not all of you may like. still ahead this hour, it's been a tough road for the cannabis stocks. what happened? some are holding out for a rebound next year. will find out why the cannabis stocks just haven't been growing. we are back after this. they lack the true ownership and flexibility of directly investing in bitcoin. with itrustcapital you can buy and sell real bitcoin 24/ 7 with the tax advantages of an ira. real bitcoin means no middleman, no restricted stock market hours. choose the path of direct bitcoin investment with itrustcapital

because access equals opportunity. invest in bitcoin at itrustcapital.com today. ♪ (agent) we've always said never sell a house in the winter. well, that's not exactly true. with opendoor, you can skip the showings and get a real cash offer. and if you close before the holidays, you don't have to move till after new years. you are disguising my voice here, right? (director) ahhh, of course. (agent with altered voice) foof, just checking. like i was saying... (vo) it's true. opendoor makes selling easy, in any season.

doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. appreciate it so much. thank you. doors are new beginnings. -surprise! -surprise! your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. for you, mama. through personalized money management that can evolve with new chapters. and they can proactively view your entire portfolio. with an eye on taxes and the impact of risk. so you can enjoy moments together.

because doors were meant to be opened. doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. welcome back. if you invest in cannabis, aka pot stocks, hoping to make money because everybody is smoking pot these days, i'm sorry. you have not been rewarded. not for your patience. not for seven long years, but brandon gomez is here to say that 2025 might, might change some things. we will find out. brandon, hi. >> that's right. it's been a tough year for cannabis stocks. they have been getting smoked, coming for your pun title.

mj down 30% on pace for the seventh straight loss. pure cannabis down as well. the industry rallying on the promise of the federal classification in march. investors realized it will stretch well into 2025. a new administration is bringing opportunities and challenges. the starting with opportunities. the federal reclassification remains underway. president-elect trump showed support for the campaign for action, and he supports the safe banking act, providing access to financial services, reducing cash only operations, and the appointment of key officials on pace for rfk jr. to lead seen as a positive pick. challenges 24 states and d.c. have legalized recreational use. medical is legal in 40 states. pam bondy has opposed the

legislation in florida. despite the uncertainty, the u.s. market is at $40 billion in sales by year end. as it stands, 2025 could be the payoff for patient investors. conflicting opinions from the incoming administration could slow things down. >> what has rfk staid about it? has he supported it? >> both weed and psychedelics as an alternative to prescription drugs. you heard his comments around the prescription drug market, and that possibly opens up the door for more alternative possibilities. >> usually a more democratic supported issue, is that true? >> yes. >> support on both sides? >> that's what investors are waiting for. they need to see more red states pass recreational number. the target number 37 states. they are at 24. they need some red states to turn to recreational use before they think there's going to be federal action on legalization. >> just too many?

too much cannabis out there, like oil, the price is going down because you have more demand than supply. >> when you think of where the supply is coming from, more from or brothers and sisters to the north in canada as well. tracking to see how supply meets demand for the long-term. >> thank you, brandon. brandon gomez on the pot spot. brian and i are sticking around. "money movers" after a quick break. the s&p recovering just a bit. . your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. your people work better, your customers are happier, and todd... well... he's practically euphoric. practically. so, let's get to work. (♪♪)

the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

(♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street invest in your future with dia, the only etf that tracks the dow. (♪♪)

good thursday morning and welcome to money movers. we are live at the new york stock exchange. the stocks are on pace to close out with big gains. there are seven stocks accounting for 53% of the snp return this year. what does that tell us? we will discuss. netflix entering the live sports world. vega