it's got really strong support around $61. >> jim? >> go with the tried and true. berkshire hathaway. >> joe? >> one of the several software names i picked up in the last thank you very much, frank, welcome to the exchange, i am kelly evans and here is what is ahead. will start with yields, the highest level since early may. he expects a tournament the second half of 2025 he will

tell us how he is positioning and why, coming up. donald trump hosting associate on christmas suggesting that the u.s. will take on the panama canal. we are going to dig into the viability of the suggestions and the impact it is all having on international relations. here is a look at our mistry chart of the day. we will review the name and a few other stocks you may want to flip into. let's get into bob, where is my santa claus? >> yeah, but anyhow, we are positive to remember something, this has been pretty good, the nasdaq are both less than 1%. looking into the dow, the investors all day we have another strong performance by

united health and has been bouncing back after an awful first part. going up great months, great month, terrible year it is one of the worst performances, a continuing trend of lower financials kind of a middle year, home depot up about 14% bouncing around a lot here, apple, broad come, amazon, meda and tesla lagging as you can see here, everybody's talking about apple. one of the few spots with highs

right now. 264 is the price it would have to hit to hit $1 trillion market cap and you can see we are still shy of that although apple is up today, how about the santa claus rally? the last five days of the old year, it started on tuesday and so far we are up about 1%, we are up 1.1, 1.2% earlier we have come off of the high. approaching the end of the year not only are they up 27% or so but the timeline looks pretty good right here. if you look at the numbers, two thirds are up on the year, that is a really good number. one third are down in 53 are up 50% or more, 53 are up more than 50% or more. that is an awful lot of stocks

and as you all know, they tend to dominate here but overall this is not a bad year for the overall market, kelly, back to you. >> bob thank you very much. my next guest is too restrictive saying they will settle for a policy meaning the flat yield curve around 2% and set balance sheets around 20%. chief market strategist at jeffrey, it is great to have year, thank you so much. i think the big 30,000 foot picture of what you think next year will look like it actually does inflationary. we should talk about that especially on a day where yields are doing that >> deregulation is not talked about enough. everybody is focused on terrorist, immigration, more stagflation parts of the proposal which i think are much

smaller and much more significant than the deregulation. >> that was true in '17, '18, '19 as well. >> does deregulation take time to show up? they say in the long run, maybe they mean in 10 years that he's only got four, do you think they can show up in a couple months time? >> i do because they are going to know that they can do deals, they are going to know that things are going to miss again and so all of the planning comes in and all of the investment comes in and all of the decision-making to get together and i think cut costs and merge and engage in activities that are ultimately going to be benefiting from the fact that there is less red tape involved in getting business done. >> what you're saying is actually even more of a twist than people might think. when they think of deregulation they think of the really hard stuff. the kind of stuff that they are going to be chipping away at dollar by dollar, it might take

a while. what you're really talking about is a looser environment which can happen on day one. you think it is basically does inflationary for the economy. >> it just brings people to the table to get the animal spirits flowing and i think that is optimistic for all business. is optimistic for the cost of production and the expected cost of production for businesses to be lower and that allows for prices not to go up as much in margins and to be higher. >> i think a lot of people, they always say it is like oh, those are the lines i hear, all of the deals often fail, are there any real returns. it is anti-competitive it is bad for the consumers, it does result in a lot of layoffs and restructuring so what about all of those kinds of dismissals of the impact of mna?

>> it can be risk constrictive for the labor market certainly has been in the past and certainly innovation and what we are talking about with does -- doge as well. that to me is much more of an optimism mind-set, a psyche to come in. i think businesses are going to even be confident that they don't need to raise prices. they can keep prices here or even lower them in the future. that is the way they can gain real estate with market share. that's going to be an important thing as deregulation really lowers the barrier to entry for all newcomers for smaller businesses for those guys that want to chip away at the bigger businesses. >> i am excited about that, i also have a very controversial view on the structure of rates.

>> as he pointed out they have actually done a lot of shrinking of the balance sheet, we have come all the way down to -- almost 7 trillion in size, where is it going and what is the impact of all of this? >> i think from -- not to get too wonky and to go back too much, we have spent a lot of time telling our clients at the balance sheet was still exerting stimulating prices around the economy and that is why the high rates weren't having the same impact. we were actually in the higher or longer camp. i was on the show with you and many others saying this is not going to be the rate cuts that people think are coming, there is just too much stimulus. the balance sheet is now kind of off the table in terms of the stimulus. is back to what i would consider a neutral level probably by the middle of the

year. >> maybe we get to what, six and change? >> the economy is still expanding 5% that means that the net -- >> it is almost normal. to a lot of us it still feels highly abnormal. that is the -- >> where we were at the end of 2019, that was kind of the staple balance sheet level that we got where everybody felt comfortable. if we are there, i don't think you have that offset anymore and to me i go back and think well what is the neutral rate structure that was in place in 2019 was around 2%. it was a couple hundred basis points lower than it is today or more. >> for everyone who says okay, market, we hear you, we see what's going on out there, do you think by three or six months from now they're actually going to be saying the rate cuts are back on? >> i think the inflation data

is the real crux of this story. and if i am right, and monetary policy is a little bit more restricted than we think it is in the deregulation story is dominant, both are going to exert pressure on prices down. the restrictive monetary policies should be bad for growth. but you are going to see a play on prices. i was kind of happy to see this last week. >> i'm surprised the market didn't have a bigger reaction. >> i am surprise too. >> i felt good about that, i felt like hat was the sort of canary in the coal mine singing to me saying this thing is really going to change next year and it is because i

believe policymakers have misinterpreted and i believe the market has misinterpreted neutral, i love being on the other side of this it just makes me happy. >> do you think you can be a viable stock this year? >> the blues didn't do as well they were a little bit of an offset of the 28%. still a great year in the trade but i think it is even better this year. the fixed income side has a an even better insurance policy if something goes wrong. by likely story line is going to stay with what we did of all of 2024 which worked really well and i expect it's going to work even better in 2025. >> while markets focus on the feds, president-elect trump is giving a list of potential political targets, here is a round of the headlines in the past 24 hours, they are reporting that denmark -- the washington post says trumps panama canal is a china

influence. this it reads, trump urges wayne gretzky as he could be on the brink of losing power, i was going to say it is kind of a fun time to be alive, a more dangerous world now for trump and how china responds will be key. joining us, the president and ceo of the atlantic council. the truth is stranger than fiction here. just talk us through the impact this is all having and what does it all mean. >> first of all, we get ready for a freewheeling president is going to conduct a very unorthodox policy. i don't know how you spend your christmas day but the president- elect on social media talking about expanding american territories in the panama canal to greenland and to canada, the greenland prime minister as

part of denmark, a territory of denmark, the panamanian president that says no we are not going to give it up and trudeau did not really respond at all. trump said that citizens would have 60% less taxes. but at the same time what he didn't say which was more important, the russians hit ukraine hard on christmas day trying to take down the infrastructure to make it a very cold winter and really setting up a leverage of negotiation. that is the point you are making, donald trump is entering a much more dangerous world in his term, a lot of these tweets are distractions and the real challenges are to come. >> i almost see them as hints of what the next strategic engagement is going to look like. greenland was something that came up during his first term, you have to think shipping lanes, when you think panama,

you think transporting perhaps energy shipments other kinds of goods, a key route for that. canada, energy supplies. i look at this and i think to myself the essential thing that's going to happen in the next few years is trying to figure are we or who is going to supply the world with cheap abundant energy. you know their challenges better than anybody, is this meant to be a way of bolstering america's energy reserve to kind of protect its territory? russian subs off the coast of florida not long ago so i think these actually are telling us about the strategic challenges he faces. >> i spoke to a middle eastern leader right after the trump election i said, look, the impact is going to be on the world about $20 a barrel. minus. jokingly because the u.s. is

going to produce a more energy, the real point is that trump thinks about leverage he thinks about leverage and transactional terms and the strategic information, what is really different from his first term, the access to aggressors, china, russia, north korea, they are combining their forces more than ever. if you look at mussolini, in the 1930s, they did not cooperate anywhere nearly as close as these four companies are doing. >> doesn't that argue for the u.s. to at least be thinking about how to bolster ourselves in response? who else can we look to to kind of build out against it? europe has a massive economic problem right now which is a result in not having a way to have cheap energy. i mean, we are kind of like out here doing it alone.

>> the problem is many people think that that is fine and it's not. to have germany down to zero growth, you have elections in germany earlier in the year and you have friends seeing political trouble, you have a political r you you needed stronger that's going to be willing to put leverage on china together with you or you are not going to have the leverage you need. and so, it may look a short- term. but, if we have 3.5 and they have one points or less and ou extrapolate that over 10 years, we are going to have the week partner to work with us. >> i think back in 1990 our gdp

per capita was only 16% higher and now it is 30. so i guess my final point would be, what do you think this tells us about what trumps international kind of initiatives are actually going to be? how do you counter the access as you are describing? >> he is coming in with a lucky hands. i ron is as weak as it's been in 30 years. the defenses are down. it has lost its proxy so he has some leverage with iran. russia may look strong hitting ukraine right now but having lost its partner in syria and having lost its bases and strength, you know it is facing economic difficulty so, russia

is also looking weak. i think the play is potentially with china because we will see if they continue to partner with russia and with iran, isn't that long term smarter or even short-term dumb, this is a strategic opportunity to actually shift china from its current course. this can be the biggest, it can be the biggest geopolitical year in our lifetimes because so many things are moving in the middle east, a race for technological heights, trump is coming in with a really strong hand the uestion is how is it going to play? i don't think it is going to be with greenland and penn all. >> we will see. i am preparing myself. thank you very much, i really appreciate your time today. >> speaking of the energy market, it has been a brutal

year, they are having the worst performance in over a decade, stevens has been looking through the wreckage pets but what you hear in terms of what people think could happen now? >> 2024 was a bad year and honestly 2025 is not looking all that better with overarching theme being one of caution. many of these companies are hard. especially with the new administration policies. we could see rates stay higher for longer. it remains unlikely given how much money has gone to red districts, the projects will be delayed until there is clarity on that front. power prices are rising faster than overall inflation which does bolster the case for solar. all of the new data centers are going to require massive amounts of power and given that the reactors are a 2030 story, the time being is when he only admissions with climate goals.

this is a thing that is here to stay. things like extreme weather, infrastructure overhaul will be necessary, that is things like quantum services, what are the shovels of the energy transition. >> meanwhile, my little obsession with going on some of the older energy names, how do you think that people are lining up to capitalize on what could be some immediate change in the permitting and having a lot more exporting going on from the u.s.? >> it seems like that is definitely going to be a policy moving from president-elect to trump. that feels like it is more of the end of the biden administration looking at the sector. the u.s. is now the largest exporter in the world

>> now we are number one. >> we surpassed australia, so now there is kind of the limitless. they are having a colder than expected start to winter so they are drawing done on the inventories faster than expected which means that the outlook for next summer, that is one area where we could see executives more willing to open it, not so much on the oil side but if you provide this, that could happen. >> as we had to break, we continue to monitor apples road to a $4 trillion market cap, the magic number hit at $2.64.

it still puts it at 3.912 which is just incredible. speaking of tech, a.i. was all the rage this year. we will dig in to that list after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc . hee-ha. but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice, every day, over a million multi-millionaires, trust schwab with more than three trillion dollars of their wealth. ♪♪

it has been an incredible year for a.i., every day i am

messing around with new products, you know you can talk to the podcast now? i am getting ahead of myself. nearly all of the tech giants are getting in the race, what happens in 2025? that is the focus of today's tech check. great to see you, kelly. it is a huge year, that is one of the big questions, can this continue the bar? goldman's chief information officer, we spoke with him exclusively on the topic, he spent the bulk of his career at amazon services and no kia back in the mobile era, all of these advances he says right now a.i. feels like the emergence of cloud but a lot faster. the biggest surprise was this technology moving beyond things like chat bots into the multimodal era where it is essentially a.i. that generates videos. they will start to deploy a.i. in a much more impactful way. >> the first round of returns is going to be on that. really making companies more

efficient and making companies see some real bottom-line benefits on the use of a.i. >> better margins, more productivity, that would all be key. he also says that a.i. will result in what you call the new hybrid workforce, a.i. agents working closely alongside people. very niche and very specific industry knowledge. he is expecting major robotic breakthroughs to become a bigger priority for company boards not as regulators and large language models he expects that to be commoditized. put it this way, we will see many cars, fewer engines, engines really been the underlined tech here. >> we're seeing with the open a.i. model sold out because they ran out of data, i don't trust any of the synthetic data.

all of the questions about whether the big models are at the forefront or some of the more targeted things i love what you said about how it is going to become a hybrid workforce, have people and have a.i. machines. >> he did bring that up, they're going to be people in charge of managing the a.i. , maybe firing the a.i. but i think the data conversations are so important and he actually use this metaphor that i love, you think about the way that a.i. has been trained, it is like there is a kid who grew up in a library and has read every book, but never been outside so going forward some of the data that is even more valuable is things like temperature data. more visual data, these things are going to get smarter as they are able to move beyond just text and books. >> we asked it something yesterday mathematically that let's say something has gone up 50% in 10 years and it went out to less than 4%, i think we were doing the open a.i. and it gave us the full formula, compound interest, and

everything. he knew exactly what we were talking about and not just approximated or made something up. that was revealing. especially because math wasn't a strong point. >> definitely. some of them are better at math, better at language and creativity and anthropic is one that folks kind of .2. >> you are seeing a little bit of a difference here. >> it is emerging the enterprise version. you haven't tried santa mode? >> chat gpt has santa mode but you can change the voice to be santa claus so it will give you this compound interest equation. >> that's what i was missing. thank you, we appreciate you as always. still had, the housing market, stubbornly around 7% and affordability at rock

bottom. we will connect the dots for you and give you a view from the suite of a luxury developer, the exchange, we will be right back. tech check is sponsored by comcast business, powering possibilities. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com since starting the farmer's dog, bogart has lost so much weight. and he has so much more energy. he's like a puppy again. ♪ (banjo playing) ♪ c,mon bo! this is a before picture of bogart. such a big boy. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to

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welcome back to the exchange, i am here with your cnbc updates, south korea with a motion to impeach the country's acting president early sunday morning, the motion focuses on acting his reluctant constitutional vacancies. the support has prepared to start deliberation on whether to dismiss or impeach president unit over his martial law on december 3rd. they were sentenced to 7 1/2 years to present with the federal bureau releases in more than a year earlier. started check your mail, you could be one of the 1 million tax filers who will be getting a letter from the irs saying they will be receiving up to $1400, the

irs sees -- says these taxpayers were eligible for the tax rebate credit but they did not receive it. >> thank you very much. still ad some stock picks to start the year on the right foot. we look at the retail analyst happening for 2025, we are back in two on mainstage.

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welcome back, mastercard reporting that holiday spending grew about 4% from last year, i am a little underwhelmed, online sales of about 7% and a reversal of the experiential gifts trend, apparel, jewelry and electronics ramped up. the hottest items on jen z's -- gen z holiday list this year. what did arrive in the holiday stockings? >> the number one gift that i saw were digital cameras, it is

a big year for canon. >> in other words, you hold it up and you point and you click. >> exactly, exactly, it is not an and or thing with iphones, iphones were really popular too, it is a great holiday season from what i've seen, i have had iphones, the little smart pen, really interesting. >> some smaller items, talk us through even like the little food trends, jewelry, what are you seeing there? >> one interesting thing is the hair gadgets, super big, we're talking 500 $600 gadgets, shark, it was a very big season for shark, ninja creamy, it is a machine that turns anything into ice cream, expensive but anything for ice cream. lots of little gold bracelets, gold seems to has -- have overtaken a silver.

this one specific brand of hansen tether has emerged as the status item among teens, the brand is touch land. >> is it private or publicly held, maybe i should've gotten these, turning things into ice cream, it is basically like cold mush. >> but the brand is a ninja, it is part of the shark ninja, it is between the shark air wrap and the ninja creamy, a very big year for shark ninja. >> anything else under apparel? >> oh my gosh, lulu lemon is still dominating the christmas list. >> we are showing the shares, it has been the end of athleisure, what has driven the ascendance in the past couple of months? the mac teens and young women

generally are wearing matching sets to work out, it is all about the matching bra tops and leggings a lot of sweatshirts, even though athleisure itself has gone down a little bit, just comfy close in general are what kids are wearing to school these days, college, high school, middle school, all of it. >> that is true, the matching outfits, i love it. casey, as always, thank you. my next guest covers footwear and apparel. birkenstock is up 20%, he also says boot barn, deckers, and sketchers. let's bring him in, sam, welcome. so building off of what casey just talked about, where do you see accelerating demands and good implications for the stocks? >> i just think that as people have said, i don't think people are shopping anymore i think people are buying with intent

and with the brand specifically what they want, they go in knowing exactly what they want and they want it, you have big winners and retail is not doing as well and the companies that i like your are ones that are in a well-positioned now and continue to be well positioned for 2025. >> before i dive into that, you said something really interesting and you are sounding somewhat cautious on overall spending, mastercard told us it is only a 4% from last year, if inflation is still at 2 1/2 or three, they should be telling us it grew 7%, i feel like this is a little bit of a disappointing outcome. >> i think it is very specific, i think people have money but you better have exactly what they want when they want it and if you don't, they lose. if people are out there at places, they are not going to spend money if they don't want

the stuff and the prior guest was mentioning some very specific brands and items that people want. lipgloss or whatever the other was. they want that specific brand so if they can't find it, they don't buy it and it is a lot of intention here and that is where birkenstock, deckers, sketchers, and boot barn common. they know their customers exceptionally well and they're executing against that exceptionally well. >> you buy them now, a lot of these have good years, you want to own them into the terrace whatever is coming down the pike there? >> the trumpet tariffs are sort of an unknown, if i look at my coverage right now, the trumpet tariffs specifically i look at sketchers probably being the best position giving that they are doing over 60% of business outside of the united states,

they do have a lot of production still in china but they also have one of the best supply chains in the marketplace so, that is just rtf a good position to be in. not just tariffs specifically. there very well positioned to manage that. if you have products that people want, you have the ability to raise prices long as you continue to innovate and as long as you stay in front of the customers properly they will still be with you as long as there is value and value doesn't necessarily mean price, is the value. >> as always it's good to check in with you. >> thanks, happy new year. coming up, shares are climbing to an all-time high, and about 180 back on march 20th, an ipo one of many this

year has actually put prtya et decent performance, we will see if next year brings a flood of more or not, the exchange when we come back.

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started welcome back to the exchange, we are seeing negatives, two, four, 10 points across the board, this should be in the midst of a santa claus rally, the outlines at the top of the hour, 1% gain. this year the first couple of next years, we have already gotten a 1% gain so now if we take a pause today, it's not that unusual. may be putting some pressure on stocks but it is back below that. some of the movers are watching including toyota today who shares a surging 8% that the company plans to double its return on equity, and toyota has seen production drop for 10 straight months, now of 12

points in a week, expanding to more than 300 stores across 45 states this week. seeking an immediate hourly wage which the company calls, quote, nonsustainable. bitcoin is down today, about 3% and it is now 11% below its record high which was just under 109,000. across the crypto space, the coin base are back in the red today. coming up, real estate one of the worst performing sectors this year, about 2% since january 1st, the best- performing names, iron mountain taking the spot more than 50%. the property rounding out the top five, we look at predictions from the luxury real estate market, next.

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get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back to the exchange , expecting 2025 to be a big

year for the industry saying while retail and data centers have been good, other sectors will see the start of a new cycle. while economic growth will support households, it will still drive multi-family vacancies down. and is said to open one in brooklyn next year, here to discuss is 2025 predictions is kevin maloney, kevin, is great to see you, welcome back. >> thank you, thanks for having me. we think multi-families have been a little bit down, the costs were up, a lot of multifamily is oversupplied in the marketplace currently but on the other side of the coin it brings great opportunity into those programs but for us we are going to probably suffer the same consequences of a lot of the other builders and developers suffering around the

country is multifamily is an oversupply it needs to be absorbed so i think the multibusiness for the next year or so is going to be relatively soft. >> i don't want to cheer for you to struggle but i want to throw a party to say that rates are going to be moderated and that is going to bring inflation down and it's been the biggest area where things have been sticky, right? >> it absolutely has, you are 10ras this year probably aboutc rates, on the leasing side, on the income side we are seeing is much as three months concession so there is no question that there is going to be a downturn in the multifamily business but again,

a class a, multi-relative and expensive, you're going to sit and watch supply continue to dwindle and you are going to see some shifting in rent again and hopefully with some action by the fed over the next two to three years you're going to have a winning form. >> it could be a win for everybody. florida florida, in denver and in nashville. some of the markets people were concerned about a little bit of frothing as in years past. >> there still is, nashville is oversupplied right now but nashville also has great economics in terms of employment growth, a lot of companies are in the states, we

think on the long-term nashville is great, in denver we really are not going to be building and starting sites, but we are building luxury condominiums in denver which is a new thing for us and that is doing quite well for us. atlanta is a bit oversupplied, a great market to be buying and currently for long term, but looking at it from a 12 month point of view it's going to be soft. >> is it a rent threshold, an amenities type of thing? >> it is all of the things. it is really amenity driven. it is apartment layout driven, it is packages within the apartment, that really drives rents. we're always looking for the top of the market, the highest rent in the marketplace, we have to deliver product that is above what would be considered a typical apartment. >> where else are you going to be able to capture the highest rent in the marketplace over

the next couple of years? >> miami is a pretty hot market we are about to launch and i think one of the few multifamily's to get out of the ground, we are about to launch a 550 unit rental in downtown miami the market is still relatively robust and again, we are looking for opportunities on the buy side over the next year because we think we are going to try to take advantage of this. >> take advantage, are the banks a willing partner in that? how is it funded? >> it is mostly private credit from our point of view it's much of an eroded value all the way down to the debt, the banks really wouldn't be involved. it would be an investment into the vehicle was some sort of hope note for the current developer, all of the strategies would be laid out currently in the marketplace. >> what you think of this trend where restaurants kind of

become property developers major towers? >> branding is a big business today. today it has been around for a decade but branding has become more and more important and everyone is jumping into the business, typically with hotel brands, we are building a couple around the country is very successful, but lately you have car companies jumping in and now restaurants are jumping in so, you know trying to figure out who your consumer and your buyer is and then figure out what brand works and what marketplace, that is really the goal, all the best to them if they can make it work. >> finally, were you able to get stuff off the ground with rates where they are this year? >> again, in the multibusiness we are really -- we are not going to be other than the one which is a combination or a

condo and a rental, it seems to work for us but for the most part, we are not building multi, i don't think the country is going to be bringing a lot of new multi-to the market but, in the condo space we presell our condo so everything is sold out to a certain percentage in the building so the income side is set in so you know what your income is you know what your costs are, you know what the margins are. we have been able to finance, we're going to finance and close about $1 billion of new projects in the first quarter of 2025 and we probably closed 1 billion in the last half of 2024. in the condo space it's relatively simple. >> kevin, thanks for giving us a glimpse of the business right now. >> kevin maloney, that does it for the exchange today, i will

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