we had the fed with coal in the stockings and fed speakers put maybe something other than coal back in there. >> we can call them santa this year. >> austan goolsbee. >> and john williams together and now i think the market is trading on its own. >> it is. >> maybe a way to put it. watching today the retail stocks mostly higher. data from mastercard spending 3.8% over last year. that's not shabby. that's for november 1st through the christmas eve. funny calendar this year. >> i don't think that's good. >> it's not real. >> it is nominal but i have an answer for you. >> okay. >> tell me is it disinflation. >> goods inflation has been --

>> even that -- >> to the extent -- it's an okay number. not a great number. it's a pretty good number. to the extent inflation for goods and to the extent that most of this represents goods, it's the nominal number should be close -- >> if it's minus one for the deflation -- >> minus 0.1. >> only 0.1. come on! that only adds 0.1 to the headline. >> it would take it away. >> you nope know what i'm sayin [ inaudible ]. >> am i supposed to read more? >> no. we're watching apple. another record high and the market cap creeping to $4 trillion. we're talking really close right now. 3.9. we have to get above 264 a share and we're at 258. >> $4 trillion. >> yeah. to get to 4. >> you need $6. >> yes, you do. >> a little bit less than $6. >> for a cool extra. >> is it psychologically insignificant number or does it matter? >> do you think it matters we have a $4 trillion company.

now a trillion dollar company. broadcom is a trillion dollar company. >> what is that telling you? >> the economy can support companies at this scale. you think they get to a certain size and max out competitively and so on and now, no, i guess because of the scaling of tech and ai and all of these things they can deliver and bolster those values. no one else in the world is delivering this. maybe china has a couple, but we are ahead of the pack. >> can i tell you what it tells me? >> yeah. >> i look at something like apple, a company that has very few employees and think about the revenue or market cap per employee -- >> i think they have a lot of employees -- >> they don't have a whole lot relative to say gm. >> we need [ inaudible ]. >> actually looked this up, but i can't get on my computer. >> look it up. >> i'm having computer problems. >> the idea we're talking about the tariff stuff in manufacturing. >> yes. >> all of the money is being made by companies that have relatively few employees and

generate all kinds of income and market cap without employees. >> they have 164,000. >> compared to -- >> which is not much -- >> right. >> [ inaudible ] a lot more. >> they have a whole bunch working in china. not necessarily on their payroll, foxconn, those companies. in any event they generate -- are we going to have steve on later? >> who? >> steve kovach. >> yes. >> we'll talk to him about this. we keep focusing on these manufacturing jobs. all of the money, market cap, capital is going into these companies with very few employees. it strikes me that it points to -- >> want to know why? >> why? >> the dollar is too strong because china and other countries make their currencies weak. they have the tech giants doing what they're doing. >> you think it's the currency? >> i do. >> what has happened relative to when these tariffs have been threatened? >> you mean the fact that we're at 108 on the dollar now? >> right. that's not good. >> so much is post-tariff.

>> totally. >> that is foreign currencies adjusting for the potential for tariffs and what's happening -- >> it's bad for us. our dollar is way, way too strong. >> some of it is set and some of it is the market telling you what it is. >> which is fine -- >> the europeans are not setting their currency. >> of course not. >> chinese are letting it drift down going to offset the impact of tariffs. >> cheap dollar would go a long way. let's dive into the markets and economy, strong year for stocks, there are plenty of wild cards for next year as the president-elect takes over for a second term. one example of uncertainty in our cnbc delivering alpha stock survey we asked if tariffs proposed tariffs would help or hurt the economy or consumers. >> the results were 50-50 on his broader policies more than two-thirds think he will be good for the economy and markets, 71% think so. let's bring in brian jacobson to discuss. do you think the dollar is too strong? welcome. >> thanks for having me.

i enjoyed that dialog you were having because you shared a lot of great wisdom about the stronger dollar has been a headwind for a lot of manufacturing so for people who export, but also weakness in the dollar that we're seeing is due to the anticipation of tariffs. we've already seen like a 4% depreciation in the chinese currency and just looking back at 2018 to 2019 as to what happens with currencies the chinese currency depreciated significantly, so that's almost like a shock absorber against the tariffs. the ones who end up paying the price more of the manufacturers, the exporters, farmers. i'm here in wisconsin and farming is important for our economy, and so what does it do to u.s. competitiveness for -- in those export markets? i was a little surprised by the results you had with that survey. 50-50. i was thinking did you only ask two people? one said it's good, one said it's bad. to see 50% was shocking. >> brian i'll weigh in on that because i think what -- i had an opportunity to sit at our cfo council with a bunch of cfos

from companies and everyone has a different potential experience with tariffs, right. some of them are importing goods, some are sourcing their goods locally and i don't know what the makeup is of that group of companies, but if you are importing goods you're going to say, it's terrible. if you're sourcing your goods locally it's almost no impact. one of the things that i would respond to miss kelly evans about when it comes to the dollar is one of the extraordinary things about the u.s. dynamic, the economy is, we have companies in this country that benefit from a strong dollar and those that it will hurt. >> [ inaudible ]. >> well who benefits is people who are importing those things, right? >> tourism. >> their relative cost goes down, right. >> good for the cruise line. >> brian, maybe you talk about that. 40% of s&p revenues are derived from overseas so it may have an inordinate impact on the stock market. >> that is correct.

i think that's one of the key things the stock market is not the economy in terms of the composition, so you look at the 40% of revenue, the u.s. economy, you know, we on't actually export, you know, 40% of gdp. it's a much smaller number, right. but also it's important to remember that's just revenues. what about their whole cost structure. businesses over the years have developed different tools and techniques for managing foreign exchange risk. they can, you know, locate their production facilities in other countries to sort of match the cost with the revenue in terms of the currency hedging instruments the way they finance themselves so not sure that tariffs are necessarily going to be as disruptive to the market rally that we've seen as maybe what a lot of people think at first blush that it might be. >> brian, you want to talk through the stock implications of that? >> yeah. i think that really one of the big ones is that recommend when we're looking at the sweet spot as far as threading the needle in between fairly high valuations on the one hand and

who has the most exposure to tariffs, you can look at maybe mid cap quality. that's one of the areas we like. or some of the asset light businesses so they do have a little bit more ability to price forward their particular markets they're selling into, not necessarily importing a lot. maybe some software, some of the industrials more on the domestically focused one. those are two of the areas we like. when we look back at the first trump administration, it was maybe the anticipation of the tariffs that was the hardest for a lot of the businesses and growth companies especially they actually did quite well during the trade wars, so that's kind of how we're positioning things here at an next. mid cap quality and yet also bias towards quality or towards growth because that's the parts that are likely best insulated from a trade war. >> brian, help me out here as i try to qualify or my advanced economics degree here. i had a nice chat with justin,

and i asked him, i said, justin, why does the dollar increase in value? why does it appreciate because of tariffs? he explained to me because it creates a scarcity of dollars in the global economy. is that your answer as well? >> i think that's one of the answers. another way to think about it is that if people are -- if we have -- think about it through the lens of the balance of payments. if we have a trade deficit we have a capital account surplus or a financial account surplus depending on how you want to do the accounting for it. if you're bringing in fewer goods they don't demand as much of the -- of u.s. dollars, we don't demand as much of their foreign currency, and so it's the relative change so the tariffs are likely to help bring about that adjustment. i think that really the bottom line is, that the foreign currencies need to depreciate relative to the u.s. dollar to help offset some of the tariffs that you see because of the change in the supply and demand

for those imports and for the exports. >> we're out of time so if you want to depreciate the dollar, you would get rid of tariffs? >> that does seem to be a good first step. >> are you listening? >> if you have a dollar too strong, other current's currencies are too weak, if china's too week, 20 years its policy to take over global manufacturing through an artificially low currency why wouldn't tariffs be a reasonable answer to that? >> well, i think that really what you can think about doing is subsidizing u.s. businesses through tax cuts, depreciation, encouraging that. so not so much through tariffs, but is there a different tool to accomplish that same goal. i think it's not necessarily the tariffs that china imposes on u.s. goods. it's more the state subsidies they receive. so maybe is it something we can do with the tax code, the regulatory environment to make it where u.s. businesses can be more competitive. that might be a better longer

term and cheaper solution to this issue. >> i feel like if we keep working on this we'll come up with a solution, today and tomorrow when i will be here. >> i think so. you are a big help. appreciate it. >> i'm going to read the transcript later and come back with new ideas. after the break despite consumer frustration over higher prices spending this holiday season did not slow down. mastercard reporting a more than 3.8% sales jump blowing away expectations, but not kelly evans. we'll talk about that after the break. the stocks which benefitted most. "power lunch" is coming right back. to go further, you need to be ready for what's down the road. as energy demand continues to rise, we're harnessing breakthrough innovations to increase production in the u.s. gulf of mexico. our latest deepwater development, anchor, produces previously inaccessible oil and natural gas, allowing us to deliver the energy we all need today so everyone can follow their own road.

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welcome back to "power lunch." higher prices not keeping consumers from opening up their wallets. according to fresh data from mastercard holiday sales rose 3.8% over last year. november 1st through christmas eve, clear winners, and he joins us on set with his picks now.

managing director of senior retail analyst at bmo capital markets. winners and losers you think could be winners. first let me ask you about the 3.8. how do you think about that. >> great number, good number? >> i've been enjoying the grinch santa thing going on. kelly around the holiday season not as easy to please 3.8 to most would be great. here's the thing you and i should care about inflation in a good way. not in a bad way. because in a good way we call it full price selling. in discretionary retail, if you charge more that comes with higher margin. we think about inflation being a cost margin. >> i want it to be 7%. >> and double -- >> 4% real 3% inflation. inflation might be a minus -- >> i'm looking at it up now. keep talking. >> here's the point. goods inflation we should split between discretionary and staples. >> true. >> if you're milk is higher you're buying less. if your sweater costs more you're getting better margin for the company.

>> needs have been so high in the goods area discretionary inflation has been -- actually funny, if in my head i thought 4% would be a good number and deflation 4.2 it would come out. >> you get your number. >> minus 0.6. >> add . .6. >> retailers don't care. they raise their price and the question is margin. >> by the way, you're the economist and know this more than i do. i will tweak around it a little bit. retailers don't raise their price with inflation. the price retailers set creates inflation. inflation is the amount that we spend. if there's full price, all of a sudden lulu can charge 20% more on lieu lieu goods it's 20% inflation. scary thing when we talk about it in economist terms. >> sounds like they did okay, lululemon has come back and it's been a surprise this year. >> i saw your earlier guest call that out. what's important to flag is lululemon's u.s. sales were flat. it's not greater than it was

supposed to be. so i think that -- >> why has the stock been on a turnaround lately. >> because it went down. >> yeah. >> in terms of the winners and losers, think about the stocks the other thing with 3.8 is not only inflation versus not it's an average number. and what that means is i guarantee you hoka and annan are seeing better than 3.8 and under armour, nike, other businesses are seeing worse and that's really good. because during covid we got so trained to look for rising tide will lift everyone and 3.8 means everyone is up 3.8. >> how were the discounts? that's the fear. we cleared the merchandise but at what cost? >> for the companies, they were there and worse and that means the business is going to be worse. people [ inaudible ] get that. >> i want to skip over your winners and the other category you have which is it sounds like the baby with the bath water category. >> yeah. >> companies have been thrown out, but you think have potential because -- what i like about them is their valuations are lower so there's potential

better returns if people get it right. let's talk about those companies. >> the framework we need to take in this nvidia market you're going to pay up for a lot of companies and absorbing risk or you take this other side and say i don't want to absorb risk, i don't know how to price apple at $4 trillion. i want to find companies people think are not doing well and for us, that's under armour. there's a few of them. when i think about businesses that can benefit by getting up in volume and we talk about this. >> you're a brave man to say under armour. >> it's been working. >> what's going on with that. >> kevin plank came back, the found he were, pulled his howard schultz type much a ment and came back with an appreciation we don't need to produce more. neither does the stock. when i look at businesses i can buy as much tjx as i want because the market is telling me it's great business -- >> what's one of your winners. >> or look to the other side and say under armour is in the

middle of a turnaround people have negative sentiment and emotionally we think -- >> actually if nike is weak right now what a great opportunity potentially for -- >> nike one of your -- >> so that's really interesting nike being great i actually -- i want under armour to give up volume. hoka and ahn are taking volume doesn't scare me. nike might give share is interesting. i want under armour to say we're too big, our value we have deflation built into the business model, let's pull back. let's sell this, price elasticity. that's interesting. >> any of these companies come back. >> the way i think about things you get these retailers flavors of the month for several years, go down and never seem to regain their luster. is that possible? >> if i told you under armour won't be next year on purpose but still at its revenue peak, one of the largest brands, they don't make any money on it. what i love about retail and the sector and what i love about my job is it's the accessible sector.

people think oh, my god i hates the brand and then $6 billion of revenue telling you otherwise. >> what's been fascinating to watch and appreciate this is the cyclical nature of it. all of the things that were cool when we were kids in the mall, bath and body and abercrombie, now they're back with under armour there has to be equity inherent to the fact they've been successful and bring that back and i don't know what the right moment is or how. >> in the least cool sentence i could probably say you know what's cool gross margin is cool. not revenues. >> if i was a kid it was the gap. all the women stopped at the gap to the point where they would go to party and some wearing the same weird pants. >> mellow yellow there was a marketing and this idea like you have all this brand equity but brand equity does not necessarily give you revenue. it gives you margins. >> what's cool is gross margin. i like that. >> prefaced by the least cool -- >> do a huge marketing spend. >> they will.

>> that's the only problem is back to margin. >> you lift your product margin begin and get inflation and so we're happy about that. you spend more on marketing and cut your . >> what is hip? gross margin. >> thanks. bmo capital markets. most investors are just starting to build a shopping list for next year. what do they want to add to the portfolios? discussions like we were having. we will explore that in market navigator, next. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund

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welcome back. quick check of the markets. we're seeing if we can turn positive. wouldn't take much, just a couple points, for the major averages but they remain in the red this afternoon, kind of not as bad as it was this morning. energy has been the under performer the second worst performer up barely a percent and next guest taking a deep dive into one name in the sector, occidental petroleum. down 20% on the year. a boost last week when berkshire hathaway upped its stake in the company. here is mike, a chief strategies.

it's a hugely controversial -- everyone scratches their head. how could buffet pick a name that has done so poorly and stick with it. >> the energy sector as you pointed out has a tough year. it has under performed. this even within the sector is actually one of the names that has under performed even more than the group has over all. now, a couple reasons for that, i mean oil prices really haven't gone anywhere and that's largely because the energy markets are well supplied. you have the united states and our demand has remained essentially flat and a lot of other places that's also true. all of that is going on with the backdrop of north american oil production being essentially at all-time highs. i know there was a lot of talk with the incoming administration that it would be more energy friendly but right now we are already the largest producer in the world. but, you know, i also think that, you know, we're probably going to see the supply-demand dynamic remain relatively stable and in a lot of other areas of the market they've appreciated largely because we've seen

valuations rise. so, you know, the turn on earnings or the turn on free cash flow has gone up. this is actually a case where basically the valuations have largely remained the same. it's trading a little less than 15 times forward earnings. probably have a free cash flow yield in the neighborhood of 8%. it's reasonably valued here and, you know, there are ways to play it i think if you think that the oil markets will remain stable. >> that's what i was going to ask. people have been frustrated with their energy trades. others might think is now the time to look for value. how would you be trading oxy or other names in the space. >> one way you can play it if you're going to be using options and collecting premium, a lot of these names tend to be good dividend payers or yield stocks and another way you can actually collect some yield on stocks is by selling upside covered calls if you own the stock but if you don't you could actually sell cash covered puts. in this case i was looking out to the february 7th weekly puts

you could collect about 1.20 a share for those. worse case you will own the stock at the $47 less the 1.20, which is 45.80 your basis in the stock would be wer than berkshire hathaway's so an attractive entry point and collect about 2.5% standstill yield so that's 2.5% of the stock price between now and february 7th. annualize that and that's attractive. one reason i picked the february 7th expiration than the february regular, is that the stock is going to go ex-dividend the second week of february and report earnings at that time and stocks tend to be more volatile when they report their numbers. this is a way to collect yield before you get that more volatile earnings week. >> super interesting. i think a lot of people would understand why you're approaching it that way in particular. is there anywhere else you're looking across the energy space or this one in particular jump out? >> yeah. i mean, i think there's a couple places that people could look.

i think the oil service index in general that hasn't done particularly well and, you know, you have companies like halliburton in there focus largely on the north american sort of land oil services and that remains, you know, a very active space, of course. we're producing about 22 million barrels of oil equivalent in the united states as i mentioned before by far the largest producer significantly outpacing saudi arabia. i think the oil services companies are going to be fairly stable here and continue to be demand. i'm not looking for explosive growth because as i said i think the environment is well supplied, but i think strategies like this one could apply to more than, you know, just the e and p names. you could look to services too do similar strategy. >> thank you. appreciate the ideas. mike joining us for market navigator. >> thanks. coming up we talked about who won the holiday in physical retail, but what about on the digital front which were the hottest apps in the app store? we're going to come back with some answers.

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welcome back to "power lunch." we talked about what physical stores now let's turn to the app store. people get gifts and often they need to download an accompanying app. steve kovach looked at the hot companies behind these. >> not just the accompanying app. people getting new iphones and they have to download the apps. we kind of get an idea of what people are downloading. number one in the app store by the way over the holidays it was meta and this was, by the way, i've been tracking this -- >> because of the raybans. >> the headset the quest. >> really? >> meta view for that, for the ray bands. that was in the top 40, but number one at the app store may be number one today was the meta horizon app what they call it you use to set your vr headset. >> how expensive are these? >> 200 might be the cheapest. like two different models right now. i think even the cheapest one is still on sale. point being is that, you know,

people went for those. i was looking for the meta view like you, some other interesting ones that i saw, lemon 8. >> the insurance app? >> that's lemonade. lemon 8. another video app made by tiktok, and i noticed that also got up really high in the rankings yesterday, as high as number two i saw. the way i read this was it's very clear that this is a tiktok app, but the way i read that kids know it's potentially going to be banned on january 19th, find an alternative. unclear if lemon 8 is part of that ban but people are trying that one. some cool fitness stuff too. you have garrplin up there, the aura, the smart rings that track things like that that were interesting. the other one i had no idea what this was, tonys. i asked you about this. >> i thought you meant the chocolate. >> no. this is a -- it's almost like a digital remote speaker like a bluetooth speaker and take these

little characters, cartoon characters, and you put it on top, and it tells the kid a story from that character. it's like a new-aged teddy ruxpin. >> like a podcast? >> out loud book. >> tells you the story. you take him off and pause and pick back up where you started. easy for super young kids to use. >> that's cute. >> popular thing. i've been talking to parents for the last 24 hours, do you know what this is. >> no. >> some parents are like my kid loves -- >> sort of like a meta data in the sense that we can learn about the sale of physical things. >> exactly. >> by looking at -- i tell you what i downloaded. >> what? >> the app for my dehumid fire. >> yes. >> exciting. >> dyson was one of the top apps too. >> trying to keep my guitar room -- >> we need it for the piano. >> now i have ve sync but now you can see i bought a humidifier. sorry. >> to your point dyson was one of the -- at least in the top 50

i saw. yes, connected vacuum cleaners, alexa was very high at the top. i think it was number two last night when i looked. people not just getting echos but smart appliances that need the alexa app to talk to each other. >> fascinating. >> like a window into the study. >> people who are just getting app products and downloading things, casey lewis said one of the top items was actually apple tee vices. we're going why is the stock approaching $4 trillion today but this could be as simple as that. >> one other data point we looked at the android store and it's skewed there but to your guest's point, yes, iphone dominates among young people i think. last i saw 80% market share for like gen-z or something like that. and one of the top apps the top 40 i believe on the android store yesterday was move to ios. >> really. >> an apple made android app that moves all your data from your android phone.

>> that's a good sign for apple. >> great sign. >> i want you to know i'm out of water in the humid fire and only at 22%. >> call your wife. >> what's the name of the musk robot at home. he can get that reading for you and then go -- >> optimus. [ inaudible ]. >> full of great solutions. >> exactly. >> on the market cap points. >> yes. >> we were talking about what do you think the significance of apple reaching when it ultimately does $4 trillion market cap. >> the same as it was when it hit three, two, one. the first one to do it and it is the moment to talk about and celebrate. apple the first to hit trillion and likely the first to hit 4 trillion. i go back where we were 11, 12 months, apple was the laggard in the mag seven. wasn't until they started telling a real artificial intelligence story that that

turned around and now there's just good vibes around apple. >> the consumers that they're into the apple -- >> the opposite. >> the part, like -- >> the street is value something that does not appear to be -- >> i don't have solid data on that. >> you're hearing negative -- >> if you see these conversions okay the kids want an iphone whether or not because of ai, they still want -- it -- look having ai means it's the latest and greatest. >> that's all that means. starting, you know, starting this year, everything you buy that comes from apple is going to have ai in it so it's almost a moot point like saying my iphone has wi-fi. it's not going to matter eventually. the bull case is wow people are going to want this ai so badly they will run out and buy it. we don't know if that's happening yet and we're not going to get our best insight until apple reports earnings-end of january or february and then we get the full, you know, picture of what this looks like. by the way more ai to come from apple. they still haven't released everything they announced yet.

that super charged siri, ability to talk to the apps on your phone still to come. we don't know what that's going to look like. >> i like the summaries. i like -- >> do you get the summaries? >> no. what's the summary? >> they have wi-fi, is that what you said? >> crazy right. >> say i get a string of 27 text messages it will say, you know, husband says check the humid fire and boil it down to glance at it, summarize news updates. >> the problem is the news updates it gets it wrong. bbc got mad because they gave the wrong headline about luigi mangione saying he shot himself which didn't happen, of course. >> ai got it wrong. >> got it wrong. >> summarizing bbc notification, editors had nothing to do with it and it was apple ai interpreting it incorrectly. >> there is all going to turn out just great. >> what could go wrong. >> let's get over to pippa stevens for a cnbc news update.

>> hey, officials in hawaii investigating a body found in a wheel well of a united plane. the jet took off from chicago and landed in maui christmas eve. once it arrived a body was found in the wheel well of one of the main landing gears and still unclear how the body ended up there. the finnish police boarded an oil tanker linked to russia as they investigate whether it damaged a baltic sea power cable. officials say the cable that carries electricity between finland and estonia was cut yesterday part of a slew of disruptions of two undersea cables being disrupted. kim kardashian spell private equity has come to an end. according to filings reviewed by axios, she is no longer managing sky partners, the private equity firm she co-founded two years ago. the firm originally planned to raise at least a billion dollars to buy consumer companies. however it only raised $121 million through april and closed on just one deal.

steve, back to you. >> thank you, pippa. you can always hear us on our podcast, be sure to follow and listen to "power lunch" wherever you go. we're going to come right back. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪) growing your business is easy once you know the moves. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

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welcome back. yields have settled down a little bit. the 10-year was pushing 462 or 463 this morning which was happening or contributing to why stocks are struggling. it's come down. we're around 4.57. economic news, jobless claims better than expected continuing claims, though, did hit the highest levels in more than three years and a quiet trend simmering in the background. by the way that could also be why markets are feeling a little bit less, you know, hawkish this afternoon. we'll be right back here on "power lunch." stay with us. to go further, you need to be ready for what's down the road. as energy demand continues to rise, we're harnessing breakthrough innovations to increase production in the u.s. gulf of mexico. our latest deepwater development, anchor, produces previously inaccessible oil and natural gas,

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welcome back. it's time for three stock lunch purchase eric clark here to do the trades a portfolio manager at accu best global advisors. we've been talking ability apple's charge to $4 trillion today. what would you do with the stock here? you buy it, i don't think you'd want to short it, but what do you think? >> i would not want to short apple. it's the greatest consumer

staple ever created and we think it's a buy here and certainly a buy on any dips that come. they're just beginning this ai refresh cycle. it's across all the devices. we think this is the first time they're going to have some pretty good multiyear revenue growth at a time when, yes, the stock is at all-time highs, yes 30 times earnings, but you would expect a great business that's a leader in a really important category to be, you know, up a little more expensive than the market because they're a solid business with solid operating metrics beginning a multiyear growth cycle. >> next up we have target. the stock one of the best performing retailers today but shares down 13% over the past three months. what do you do with that one? >> well, i think, you know, you could hold target here if you own it. you know, inflation has been difficult for target. they were the losers when

costco, walmart and amazon were the winners. at 14 times earnings they need discretionary spending to come back a little bit more because that's what they're more focused on. i think you're getting paid to wait at 14 times earnings and they're finally getting their operating metrics and margins back to where they used to be, lowering to drive traffic into the stores. i think it's a pretty good long here. >> that brings us to a little bit, i don't know if this is a tougher one, coinbase has been on a tear, up 50% over the past couple months but super volatile on movements in bitcoin, only down 1.5% as bitcoin goes below 96,000 below that mark. what do you do with this one? >> well, i think it's a buy. it's 20% off the highs, which is great. we don't like to chase moving trains so if this were at all-time highs i would probably be a little more cautious

wantinging wanting to get more engaged with crypto plus the stable coin opportunity with multinationals all over the world being able to move money around the world more efficiently. i think that's a pretty interesting -- this would be in our innovator brand category because it's a younger company and a younger new evolving market. i like the discount after a pretty strong run. >> is there anything you don't like, eric? >> well, we don't like second tier retailers, you know, when inflation stays high, you want to stay away from lower quality companies, you know, companies that have too much leverage or that are just selling marginal products that don't have a lot of differentiation. so, you know, that could be two-thirds of retail so we're staying up in quality and up in brand relevancy and avoiding the rest. >> now in honor of the holiday

season we're gifting you a fourth stock in today's three stock lunch. we're asking eric to give us one of his top picks for the upcoming year, and he went with amazon. the stock is up just shy of 50% in 2024. for the record that's disinflationary if you do four stocks over a three stock lunch. why is amazon one of your top picks? >> well, you knot's been a top pick for the last couple years. we made it a big overweight in late '22 when the stock was down meaningfully, and it really shouldn't have been. so the last two years it's just caught up to where we think it always should have been and now i think, you know, 250 to 300 given that retail is still doing well, margins are still expanding, international starting to get profitable on a sustainable basis, the ai and cloud initiative is just beginning, and they're spending a lot of money because they see a good roi on it. i still think it's the best upside for all the mag seven names. it's a product that we all use

on a regular basis. and, you know, they're kind of firing on all cylinders and we still think there's a lot higher to go on this one. >> eric, thanks very much. happy holidays. eric from global portfolio manager. >> a quick joke i saw a facebook meme, due to inflation dirty deeds will no longer be done dirt cheap. 1976 ac/dc song. >> when you said four was disinflationary, some think it's inflationary. >> it was longer. >> four for three i'll take that all day long. >> coming up disney's mufasa getting off to a disappointing start and netflix's big moment, sathdionovi w e ll mie. ♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks,

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welcome back to "power lunch." mufasa ruled the holiday jungle but the early numbers were disappointing to some for more on what this means for disney and the 2025 box office let's bring in julia boorstin. julia, what happened over the weekend? >> well, steve, disney's "mufasa" topped the box office christmas day after it opened over the weekend behind paramount's sonic 3. with $15 million christmas day, mufasa on track despite that slow start. yesterday disney's search light picture opened to $7 million. and a lot of awards buzz. as this year disney returned to top the box office market share. disney studio is an estimated 25% market share this year according to couple score with three of the top five films, inside out, deadpool and moana

crossed $820 million globally. next year will be the test of disney's ceo bob iger's focus on turning around the studio as the expands from releasing eight movies wide to 12 wide releases next year including sequels to captain america, utopia and avatar what couple score called the best slate since before the pandemic that could lead the whole industry back to prepandemic box office levels. now disney shares have lagged the s&p 500 since iger restructured the company two years ago but shares are up 18% in the past three months for our -- out performing the markets in that period. >> so steve saw -- did you see the movie? >> the dylan movie, yeah. terrific movie. >> was it. if you're a big fan or for anyone? >> what i loved about it all the music biopics none put the music at the center. the music was at the center.

and timothy -- >> i know -- >> singing the dylan stuff, deserves an oscar just for that. >> do we know the ratings for the nfl christmas games yet? >> we don't have the ratings for the nfl christmas games yet. we are expecting nielsen to issue a report at least on the domestic numbers for how many people streamed those games on netflix around 5:30 p.m. eastern today. but the early indications for those games are strong. netflix reports that nearly 200 countries tuned in to the netflix christmas day pregame show and netflix says during the chiefs versus steelers game nearly a third of netflix's concurrent viewers globally were watching and that viewership was behind only the jake paul-mike tyson fight. netflix saying that they had more concurrent viewers of any christmas than in the past four years thanks to those games.

now netflix is bringing in an estimated $150 million in ad revenue for yesterday's two games which is the same it reportedly cost to license them, though that does not include the cost of beyonce's halftime show. all that spend is expected to bring in not just the ad dollars but more subscribers and keep current subscribers happy. netflix is continuing its investment in sports just five days ago signing a deal to show the fifa women's world cups in 2027 and 2031 and in january netflix launches its wwe shows with its live wwe raw shows on monday night. and netflix is using its sports investments to promote its original series like "squid games" second season which premiered today on the heels of the nfl games. this is the last quarter that investors will know whether or not these programs bring in new subscribers because netflix is going to stop reporting

subscriber numbers starting next year as the company works to shift its focus to its profitability as advertising becomes a key second revenue stream behind revenue. >> steve loved the christmas games. >> i did not. >> bridge too far. welcome to "closing bell." we are live at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour starts with the stocks as we charge toward new year. we've got 60 minutes to go in regulation. after strong gains to start the holiday week stocks are hugging the flatline today with thin training. jobless claims coming in below expectations which was good news, however continuing claim