shift its focus to its profitability as advertising becomes a key second revenue stream behind revenue. >> steve loved the christmas games. >> i did not. >> bridge too far. welcome to "closing bell." we are live at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour starts with the stocks as we charge toward new year. we've got 60 minutes to go in regulation. after strong gains to start the holiday week stocks are hugging the flatline today with thin training. jobless claims coming in below expectations which was good news, however continuing claims

hitting the highest level in years. we will discuss what that is signaling about the overall economy, what it might mean for the fed. senior chairman roger altman is with me to discuss. taking a look at yields continuing to grind higher, the 10 year back above 4.6%, its highest level since may and nearing 2022 which takes us to the talk of the tape. with the santa claus rally hanging in the balance what is in store for stocks heading into 2025? let's ask the panel. welcome to all of you. cameron, the 10 year yield, is that a headwind for stocks? >> it certainly should be given the fact stocks are trading 22 times forward earnings but we are not sure if the 10 year can continue the momentum higher simply because it is diverging from economic surprises so

much. economic data has been coming in weaker than expected like those continuing claims but treasury yields keep pressing higher and eventually that gap will close meaning either data has to come in better or yields will fall so maybe stocks can get a bit of a breather going into 2025 if yields start to turn lower. >> do you subscribe to the seasonal stuff? we are in the middle of the santa claus rally. we are a little higher today but i guess higher since tuesday. final five trading days of the year, plus two into the new year which will tell us the fate of the rest of the year. is that true? >> great to be here. i think there is reality behind the seasonal tendencies that play out but these are tendencies. if you take a multi-year looking back decades, you can see changes in the average is over certain periods and

certain month around the holidays but you want to look at the catalyst at any given time, the dynamics taking place in the market. we think there is a bit of caution running up to the inauguration so we don't think there is a major reason for a significant pullback here but we don't see the catalyst playing out for a few more weeks still. >> you both sound cautious. where are you right now watching seasonals, yields, and what this means for stocks for the remainder of the year and into the next year? >> sure. thanks, sara. everyone is looking to january and how things might change relative to how things have been so far in december and all of 2024 and typically you get a bit of a reversal in january and we might see some of that and i think it would be healthy for the markets to have a bit of a pullback in january. you start to get doubt in

january, so we might start to see that in 2025. >> the divergence and the market heading into the end of the year that the divergence which has only gotten more intense in december between the magnificent seven, cameron, and the rest of the market which everyone had hope for and the broadening out trend is not playing out that way in december and i wonder which way it goes in the new year. >> so much for that broadening out because in the last month alone we've seen 13% and the average stock is down nearly 5% to almost a 20% divergence in the last month which we don't think is sustainable but a lot of it can be explained by earnings. earnings are one of the few places in the market you are actually seeing the earnings where revisions move higher. they are up 6% in the last month which does suggest the

rest of the market is seeing earnings duration at least in the forecast so in order for the average stock or the broadening out of the market to deliver, we think you have to see better earnings revisions from that part of the market and we are simply not seeing it. >> but do you think we will see it? is it time to rotate? >> we think at least we will get a stop back trade at the end of the year. it is likely given the fact momentum and data are in the 95th to 99th percentile, those things don't persist forever so we do think you will get a value snapback at least for couple of weeks, but then we get into earnings season for the fourth quarter by late january and that will be the first test of everything else rally to see if those names can deliver. if you look at forecasts, they

are expected to have a huge acceleration in the fourth quarter for the everything else part of the market so if those names don't deliver in the fourth quarter earnings season we will be back to this narrow market after a short snapback. >> ayako, you are company owns apple. the number to watch is 264. have you been adding to the position, or do you think these moves are overextended? >> you know, apple has had a tremendous rally the last couple of months. it has been strong and it's extended at current levels. we will see who gets to that $4 trillion market cap this year but over the long term, apple continues to have strong catalysts. it's a little overvalued i think in the near term and we would like to see more of a fall back before we add to the position.

>> yung-yu, i know you are cautious. what does it mean for mega cap stocks? is that why there has been a bigger rotation towards the end of the year, or does it signal something else? >> i would caution in the short term. 2025 will play out well and the volatility that takes place will provide opportunities. we think the fed is stuck and reality has been setting in and will continue to set in over the next month or so but there still needs to be progress on inflation. the labor market is cooling a bit. we would not want to over blow this risk. the market does not need to have an aggressive cutting mode, but it is one tailwind taking away from the markets so we have to wait for the catalyst to take place. we see broadening taking place but we see that more in the technology space and other

areas, not just the mega seven. we think the structure of the economy is a win or take most kind of economy. >> why do you say the fed is no longer a tailwind? because they are on pause now for the foreseeable future? >> that's right. the fed's messaging of needing further progress on inflation will take a few months. it will not be one month that will turn the fed's thinking around. there will be quite some time before there is a string of favorable data. i think the fed wants to see several months of that good inflation data before gets back -- >> do you think we will get that? cameron, i will ask you. the market is telling us something with the yields and i wonder if it is think something about the inflation outlook, especially with some of the trump policies. >> there is of course a risk when we think of immigration or

tariffs that could add to inflation. if we look at data today, we don't see signs we will get this re-acceleration in inflation. you look at wage data, rent, oil prices. none of these are suggesting inflation is about to run away to the upside but the point is it will likely remain stickier than the fed would like which suggests it is not going to be easy for them to cut rates deeply further, meaning we don't think there is room for them to deliver on hundreds of basis points of further cuts, but it's not likely hot enough to suggest the bond market needs to keep racing and the potential for interest rate hikes. we've watched thtwo year really closely and the 200 day average. if we break above that, maybe that is the bond market's signal it is pricing no cuts or the risk of hikes as we go into

what could be a higher inflation kind of period. >> ayako, what do you expect for the early months of the trump administration as it relates to investors? what is priced in and what you expect? >> in 2025 as we start the year we will get more volatility and surprises in 2025 will be related to the administration's policies and what impact in terms of all of the companies out there. we will have to watch all of the headlines to see what the true impact is and the timing but i think the fed and their potential cuts are likely to be less impactful. economic data will have us all guessing as to when they will cut it, whether or not they will telegraph the cuts, those will be highly debated and will increase the volatility we will see in markets in 2025. >> here is something i saw in your notes that i don't see or

hear from too many guests on cnbc lately. staples. you like adding consumer staples here? >> given everyone's exposure to so much technology it is a way to balance out, you know, the risk to portfolios. we like seeing the diversification in portfolios, not just the happenings. even though we are seeing some of that, we like to see it balanced out with healthcare or consumer staples. >> by the way, it's not just staples have been too boring this year, costco, kroger, and walmart -- walmart is up 76%, customer was up 44 and kroger is up 37%. cameron, where do you look to add exposure that happened already run so far thinking technology, thinking some of this year's winners? >> it is an interesting question about defensive players because the one part of

the market agreed on, there is no downside risk to growth. whether you think about trading about 22 times or credit being so tight, even the 10 year treasury yield up near 4.6%, all of that seems to agree there are not downside risks in 2025, so maybe a consideration of these unloved, more defensive, more stable kinds of names, making sure we are aware of the prices we are paying as well, the place in portfolios mostly because they have been left behind in this very tech focused, a.i. focused kind of market. >> no one should say walmart is a recession indicator. it's up 76%. yung-yu, what about healthcare? that has also been eft behind this year. certainly this month, post election. is it the play as growth slows

and the labor market continues to cool? >> we think healthcare and staples as well are a tricky place here. there will be significant disruptions in the healthcare space with the new administration and it will be a challenging process or endeavor in that space so we are cautious on that. we are cautious on staples. it is not that people are not pricing in low risk, which they are, we think the market is looking toward the growth that is likely to happen in the economy and earnings but the reality of staples, they are not cheap either and the profit margins for the staples sector could come under pressure. we don't think it is likely to be what it sometimes plays out to be and it is an environment you are kind of backed into a corner in terms of looking for growth and some of the defensive areas not providing the defense they might

typically provide. >> quite at the virgins in staples. dollar tree and dollar general are down on the year. we will leave it there. lies, thank you for kicking off the show, cameron, ayako, and a yung-yu. pippa stevens has details behind a big move. pippa? >> a pretty steep profit pulling back ahead expiration with a contract down 6%. the contract has stoked heating demands and analytics said one key question is whether it will be severe enough to caused freeze off and production disruptions. we have seen oil and gas, oil stuck in a range and gas has broken out with two key tailwinds behind it, lng demand and enormous amounts of power which could benefit gas focused drillers, like eq t. and on the

other side, the largest exporter in the u.s., second-largest producer globally and that stock is up 23% this year. >> pippa, thank you. let's send it over to kate rooney for he biggest names moving into the clothes. >> shares of toyota climbing today on a report the japanese automaker aims to double its equity target to 20%. the company said its global production declined for a 10th straight month in november all the worldwide sales increased for a second month in a row. meanwhile walgreens, dollar tree, and target are up today after the holiday shopping season comes to a close. mastercard showed total u.s. resale -- retail sales grew 3.8% . sara? >> they are the worst performing stock and walmart,

target, and dollar tree getting a boost here. up next, erika jackson is standing by o break down his top picks heading into the new year, including a name that's already up 100% in just three months. live from the new york stock exchange, you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. >> university of maryland global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience

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wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back. tech stock is closing out another year with double-digit returns. our next guest is seeing potential in a few names in the new year. joining me now to discuss, portfolio manager eric jackson. welcome. it's good to see you. happy holidays and thank you for joining us, eric. are you there? >> mary christmas and happy hanukkah from the 51st state. >> oh, you are in canada?

just kidding. you are, actually. you have a very high risk tolerance and you go for names that make people squeamish. i know you rocked carve on when times were tough. why are you looking into this one and why do you think it is promising? >> a couple of months now, sara. they dropped like 95% post covid and this is a name that has been forgotten about. it's got a bunch of loyal subscribers that are not going to cancel that are high revenue and they are in the midst of a turnabout. they have a new ceo starting next week, actually. there haven't been any marketing costs. i would say sort of me and david, who like the stock, everyone else has forgotten about it but this stock has the

potential to triple in 2025 and these are the names you want to look at going into 2025 because the markets rallied for the last two years basically so you want to look for names that have been unloved up until this point or at the beginning of a new secular trend. >> why do you say it has the potential to triple? peloton doesn't have that much room for growth. it's high point was in covid when everyone was home and doing peloton and we haven't really looked back in any meaningful way. most people that i know with peloton do not use them. >> the ones who have them are sticking with it. i agree, every time i pass a peloton store in the mall, it's empty. in the last couple of weeks i was surprised when i walked by and i saw a customer strolling

through there. clearly they don't need any storage. they've spent too much thinking that when you are a $155 stock things will go that way. you can do well dipping into profitability and how many have forgotten about it? if they can pull on some levers to show just a bit of growth -- i mean, carvana , keep in mind, didn't have a lot of growth but they didn't die or go bankrupt and those kinds of names do really, really well. >> one that did really, really well is micro strategy. why own micro strategy if you have bitcoin? >> it is a lever play on bitcoin. you are right. you got me caught there. if you believe bitcoin will end 2025 over $200,000 rather than 100,000, why not have that

through something like microstrategy? i think there are a bunch of catalyst going into next year. we started in earnest by trump and we know nations like russia and the uae have been stockpiling. i think there will be a rush to the exit doors at the same time in terms of other sovereign nations following suit. 19 million to 21 million bitcoin have been mind and i think we will see in 2025 a broadening out of the rally not just to small caps but in the crypto world to who haven't really participated as much as bitcoin has in the past year, year and a half. >> you like bitcoin at the robinhood, some of these other stocks, just anything you can? >> yeah, i had exposure to names like galaxy, hut, in the

mining space, the crypto etf provider in asia. i think all of those names will do well. there are not public equities to invest in. >> eric, don't you need the fed to be cutting rates for this riskier portfolio to work? they just told us they will not cut rates as much next year. >> well, like many of these crypto names, sara, they haven't participated in this two year old rally all of the names popular in 2021, like peloton and others. i mean, they are just starting to get up onto the map. the sector i like the most is called quantum computing.

i disagree with some people that come on air with you, sara, who say we run an a.i. bubble because i don't think we have been in an a.i. bubble at all. nvidia is not overpriced. the only one in the a.i. space that's in a bubble. people are going straight to quantum computing since the election and i think it's because they are seeing that sector as the next jen a.i. space. it's gone from like $3.00 to like $13.00. they have a system that is much bigger and more powerful than expected. a couple of weeks ago, google. google has been rallying this month. they are able to do, you know, complex math problems and five minutes that used to take 100 million years or something like that for today's fastest computers so people are looking ahead and saying even though

these names are not profitable today, this is where the future is going in terms of the next generation of a.i. this name is too small to mention but they are trying to be the post quantum crowdstrike because you have the super fast computers that solve problems, you could break into bitcoin and hack into crypto wallets. it is years away instead of a decade away, and i think people's attention will turn to these names in 2025. >> it was a wow moment and the stock is up 6.2% today. i'm curious what the performance has been like this year, eric, taking a risk and taking a bad on some of these stocks that you have. >> these are volatile names and i think you want to do your own homework on all of them. you know, up tremendously in

the last 30 days. crypto holds back or there are surprises and these names as well. stay the course. you don't want to over trade. you don't want to be overexposed necessarily but for the names that i like, i'm sticking with them. folks should do their own homework. these are the kinds of names if you put them away, look at them in six months and you could be surprised in 2025. >> looking at the innovation fund which we haven't checked in a long time, it's up 16.4% so some of these names like you said have come to life. always good to see you, eric. happy holidays. eric jackson from canada. coming up, roger altman is sizing up the backdrop for markets ahead. policy, certainty, and rate

cuts. we will be back on "closing bell" in a moment .

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welcome back. a weekly jobless claims hitting their lowest level in months, and another potential headwind to to further rate cuts in the future. joining me now to talk about it is senior chairman roger altman. roger, great to see you. what do you make of what the

fed will do next year? the market threw a fit after the last news conference. >> i think the fed, sara, will proceed cautiously at the beginning of 2025 for two or three reasons, and i would add the pivot it just allegedly made down to two cuts from the expected four illustrates the degree of caution they will bring to this. i would hink those two cuts would be broadest. i would doubt the first one would come at the very beginning of the year. the reason i think the ed will be cautious is for partly what you just said. growth has been stronger than expected. a year ago he general expectation was 1.5% for this year and it started off around 2.5%. rounding the numbers. the labor markets continue to be strong. 4.2%. monthly job creation rates

continue to be healthy and so forth. the other reason i think the fed will be cautious is the trump agenda. how much will be implemented? particularly tariffs on one hand, deportations on the other. we have seen estimates of the implementation of tariffs just for mexican and canadian exports would be. that's not trivial. i think the fed will be cautious. at least at the beginning of the year. as the year goes on exactly what happens will depend on the data we see as it all unfolds. >> i'm glad you brought up the trump administration, roger. don't you think the trump administration will be great for your business if comes running back as the market expects? >> could be. like every other american, i want president trump to be

successful and i want the remarkable economy and by the way the holiday sales were quite strong. that's encouraging data, at least. i want this great economy to continue. it has been remarkable as powell himself described just a few days ago. i think he used that word actually, "remarkable." we want that to continue and i'm not criticizing any aspect of the trump agenda but if you are the fed, you will be careful as to which of it gets implemented and which doesn't, and what economic inflation affects that. >> what are you hearing from other ceos you are talking to, clients when it comes to dealmaking and in general just the desire to take risk with the agenda coming from this white house? this next white house. >> i think there has been quite a bit of optimism from 2024

including well before the election. i think that optimism continues and it's based on real things. it's based on the strength of the economy, the growth rate, consumer spending, which is up all three quarters of the economy and continues to be quite strong. yes, i think there is a lot of optimism and corporate earnings continue to be pretty strong. with beats and misses and so on. i think there is a lot of optimism. it should be a good year in 2025. the types of early indicators we look at, engagement letters, conflict checks, things like that are all pretty positive. although we can't see that far down the road. at least i can't, but it should be a good year. >> we did a survey here at cnbc and we asked people where they stored on president-elect trump's economic policies and the biggest response that stood

out to me, 71% said they thought he would be great for the economy and markets. 29% say his policies won't be good for the economy and markets. do you agree with that? >> one of the advantages president trump has is really fascinating. he often can signal something he wants to do and have a counterparty concede the point, or at least some of the point before he even does it. he's a strong figure and he's unpredictable. that gives him a lot of advantages. you see for example that in geopolitics. like women in iran, for example. there is room for optimism and 2025 should start off quite

strong. >> i guess the question is coming back to the beginning, inflationary policies, potential disruptions from tariffs, or immigration and ultimately what that does, so what do you think the shape of inflation looks like next year? >> as you know, inflation has been behaving fairly well. 2.5%, not at the 2% target, but pretty good. i think there is a sense that inflation is while sticky on the downside heading in the right direction. the biggest variable is growth. because most people year ago thought i soft landing would mean we would have a little tiny bit of growth left. 1%, 1.5%. >> 3%. >> 2.5%, 3%.

the economy is stronger than they thought it would be and they have said that openly. usually it is a margin that is negative for inflation and so you don't want to be cutting too quickly in case the economy continues to outstrip your expectations and prevent the inflation rate from falling from where you want it to. >> do you think they made any mistakes? they went 50 n september and that was surprising to many people. 25 last week. while the market expected it, the way powell framed it, didn't feel that necessary. >> i think there is a serious school of thought. i among some others have been articulating this, that we don't need any more cuts because of the strength of the economy on one hand and the downward pattern of inflation on the other. why would you cut if you had 3%

growth? >> exactly. >> i think that is a serious argument and one of the regrets at the onset, sara, we may never find out but i do think it argues for caution now. don't do too much and don't do it too quickly. >> that does certainly seem to be the mantra now. roger, great to talk to you. >> thank you, sara. >> roger altman on that report. >> my pleasure. still ahead, disney driving moviegoers into the theaters next year. we are back on the bow after this break.

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doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. disney's shares looking to finish out the year up. julia boorstin joins us now with the box office set up. julia? >> disney topped the box office this year as mufasa won the box office on christmas day after opening behind paramount's sonic 3. disney studios has an estimated 25% of this year's box office market share with three of the top five films, inside out 2, dead will and a

wolverine, and moana 2. wicked and despicable me 4 round out the top five. the 2024 box office is expected to end the year down just up 3% from last year but at one point this summer it was down 27% and next year the box office has a chance to return to pre-pandemic levels as disney expands from releasing 8 movies this year to 12 next year including sequels to captain america, zoo topia, and avatar and it's called the best slate since before the pandemic. it's the ultimate test of ceo bob iger's plan to turn around disney studio. since eiger restructured the company, they are up 18% the past three months, far outperforming the market. take a look. sara ? >> inside out 2 is better than

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coming up, market cap milestones. apple hitting a record high and knocngn thki oe door to the club. we will take you inside the market zone.

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are seeing a trend the past few days shorting bitcoin in the future market, buying up the prices alongside a slowdown in buying activity across the u.s. trading market with the premium turning negative according to data from crypto. coinbase, of course, going down and under pressure for the ay and on pace to end the week lower. sara, it was only earlier this the first time and more recently its record above $108,000 so i think traders are coming off the high of the postelection rally starting to focus on what happens now. we have a lot to look forward to in the new year by focusing in on how soon we get to see all of those things we are looking forward to. >> certainly got their wish in terms of appointments from the trump administration and they expect all of these things to happen.

where do these price targets come from and how are they derived? we just heard eric recommending micro strategy. >> 200,000 is being floated a lot on the street and we had been talking about something that is a good reminder. she said you could easily see bitcoin go down to 65 before it hits 200 k again and that is a good reminder as we head into a new year everyone is expecting things to be so bullish. we have, you know, new concerns with powell talking about potentially rising inflation and the incoming trump administration, fewer rate cuts. so, you know, there are things that will slow it down and when we look at the regulatory environment and the potential ipo and crypto, that may not happen until the back half of the year as we are waiting for president-elect trump to finish

out his appointments and other priorities as well so a lot to look forward to but traders i think wondering how that actually plays out. >> against reality. good to see you. let's turn out to steve kovach on apple closing in on the $4 trillion spots. we might get there today. i don't know. we are awfully close. >> we are still on that $4 trillion watch today. in the meantime, apple touching an all-time high today just a few points away from that magic number, 264, the first public company to ever do so. i wish i could say there was a catalyst or news event that has been driving apple but it has been this incredible run. by the way, just today, raising the price target and will be on closing bell: overtime talking about this. it has been positive vibes as

we wait for real results from apple. the december quarter will be the most important to determine if artificial intelligence is the driver so many in the street have been believing. we will get more on what apple is seeing on a.i., on the earnings, and a modest iphone growth for the fourth quarter. does not sound like the super cycle for iphone upgrades. we will have to see a few more weeks before we get into the new year before we get that story out there. >> nice persistent rise. steve, thank you. apple outperforming a lot of the big tech stocks today. jonathan is getting cautious on apple as it nears the milestone. from a technical side, what are you seeing? >> sara, apple has been on quite the streak as of last friday and put in its fifth consecutive weekly gain of 2% or more since 2010 so it has

been quite a while. since 1990, there have been seven occurrences of it being 2% or more. when you look a month later, apple is down six or seven times. one time it was up a month later was april of 2009. i don't think that is a big analogy. it tells us it is due for a breather. we could get a bit of a pullback around that level and i think, you know, be cautious in january. you have the possible tax implications where investors wait until january to sell their winners and apple have certainly been a winner so a lot of reasons we should see it pullback in the new year. >> cautious on apple, but what about the broader market? the s&p has been having a weird month. it is dominated by the nasdaq

and the dow is down for the month. the s&p is completely flat. what does the chart tell you? >> we had a massive dislocation starting off with 14 straight days of negative and the s&p did not flinch because the big names got all of the influence. to some extent, t is getting resolved and were getting balances from the market. small caps are trying to participate today and we are in that seven day window. it's the santa claus rally. of course, and new year's. we started that period with extreme conditions, a great sign for the santa claus rally. as we get into the new year and back up to the 6100 or around those new all-time highs, the issue is what we saw the last few weeks is a bit of a shot

across the bow. that type of divergence -- something is going on there and i think it is related to the system in both the dollar and in interest rates. you know, those two parts of the market are clearly having an impact on areas like energy. and so, ultimately that is likely to get resolved and we think again that comes in january. >> i feel there are two types of people, the mega cap tech people and everyone else. with 20 seconds left, who do you think leads into the new year? >> i think it's a bit of a catch up from the ladders and the market small caps. then i think it goes the other way once you get into january. you know, into the new year, everything pulls back.

>> got it. jonathan, thank you. happy new year. happy holidays. and that's the close. the nasdaq is on the dollar. thank you to apple. that does it for "closing bell." now into overtime. >> sad holdings limited doing the honors at the nasdaq. stocks ending the day amid thin trading this oliday week as investors debate the fate of the santa claus rally. 5 of 11 ending higher with tech leading the way, and utilities and energy lagging. that is the scorecard on wall