competitive mode if you are company looking to utilize a.i., but in some cases, it might be easier to buy software. >> people working with a.i. agents, how does that play out long-term? we have seen pushback with copilot initially. >> is it efficiencyhave to wait. that does it for "overtime." "fast money," it begins right now. thanks for watching. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. closing in. shares of apple nearing the $4 trillion mark. how big is this milestone for the market? we'll debate that. plus, gridiron game plan. who is next for netflix, flesh off its nfl doubleheader. we'll break down the role live sports will have with the ad-supported service. and did roaring kitty signal game on for game stop in the chart master set to dive in on dollar tree. and happy retail returns for the retailers this holiday season.

i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- courtney garcia, bonawyn eison, mike khouw and julie biel. shares of apple adding another .3% today, setting a new record and closing with a market cap of more than $3.9 trillion. shares need to rise another 6 bucks or so to hit the never before seen $4 trillion mark. they've added over $900 billion to its market cap already, bigger than one whole eli lilly, and nearly as big as berkshire hathaway. even with those gains, some on wall street are still bullish on the stock. webbush raising their price target to $325 a share. that's 25% upside from today's close. here's what he had to say about why he is so bullish. >> checks last 48 hours are showing, i think, strength from the holiday season perspective. it's our view this is going to be a record year.

240 million iphones, i believe they ultimately sell, and what's wild, this is just of an a.i.-driven super cycle that's multiyear. haters continue to hate on apple, but i believe $4 trillion is just a start. >> can this trade keep rocking higher in the new year? courtney? are you going to be a hater or a lover of this story in '25? >> i kind of approach this with a little bit of caution. dan increased his price target here and he noted some things like being the golden era of growth with artificial intelligence. he pointed out a.i. emojis and chatgpt on siri. i don't know if that's going to be the super cycle upgrade of the iphone that everybody is expecting. this went from people assuming this cycle that was going to happen with this new iphone. oh, this is going to be a multiyear problem. so, you know, i just don't know if this is a catalyst to get into the stock right now, especially after it's done so well. it just had five weeks in a row it's up 2% or more.

after that happens, that tends to be a bad thing for apple. i think it's having a really high bar. so, long-term, it's absolutely going to benefit from artificial intelligence. short-term, a lot of that is probably priced in. i would stay on the sidelines myself. >> bonawyn, you have the normal super cycle of people with really old phones needing to upgrade their phones driving the immediate, you know, the near term at this point, so, what do you think of the prospects and where it's valued in relationship to that? >> so, that's the real question. i think it's fully valued. so -- >> for just the plain old upgrade cycle? >> certainly, right? and so, i think kind of identifying that, or calling that to issue doesn't necessarily make you a hater. i am behind the fact that you essentially have a $2 trillion valuation based off of a services business. i'm with the fact this company generates whatever its debt load per year. there are a lot of reasons to like it, but we're talking about

a relatively short trade. do i want to put the incremental dollar towards apple? i'm a believer of the a.i. story in general. but i think that there are so many other alternatives in terms of ways to leverage a.i. that all these other companies have made available and a.i., like, a.i. emojis, integrates chatgpt, you can already get access to chatgpt, perplexity, google, all these other a.i. features that i just don't know if having it at the fingertips is what's going to induce me to spend the additional money on another iphone. the install base having to upgrade, i understand, i don't think that's a.i.-specific. that's already built into and the valuation reflects that that is just the way the fundamental story behind apple. >> julie, where are you on apple? >> well, you know, as the official slow moving sloth of the "fast money" desk, for me, i've owned this name for 12

years. and for 12 years, i have had to tell myself not to sell this thing, right? there have been so many times where the valuation gets well out ahead of its, you know, fundamentals, and you see that in the periods over the long-term. the problem with this is always the same, which is, the idea that you're going to be able to get out and time it just right so that when you have one of these downdrafts, you're going to get back in. for long-term guys, it makes sense. the thing about a.i. -- with apple that i really like when it comes to a.i., i think of all the brands and technology, this one has the most trust. and i think when a.i. starts to get very useful is when we will have the most level of trust to feel confident that it's not going to mess with us, have incorrect data or be problematic for privacy. and i think this is the best positioned consumer company to do that. >> the privacy issue is huge for consumers, as julie points out, mike, and there's just the issue of apple, it may be late to the game, so to speak, maybe relative to some others and some

other engines that exist out there. but usually it's still becoming one of the best products out there on the market. and maybe we're discounting that aspect of it so far in the apple story. they've always managed to, even if they seem like they're a step behind a competitor, to really, you know, nail it in the end. >> yeah, i mean, they do produce the best consumer e lectronics n the market. the difficulty, of course, is whether or not you want to rush out and buy the shares here trading at 35 times forward earnings when growing at probably just at eps at about 10%, when you could pick up nvidia at the same forward multiple, growing adjusted eps at 50%, or alphabet at 22 times forward and growing at 15%, or pick up meta, you know, at a discount to this price, also growing at, you know, much faster pace. in fact, of the megacap companies, this is the one that's actually growing the slowest on the adjusted eps side and the top line is probably going to grow along with the

company maybe a little bit better than that. if you're deto start pearing your position, because i thi co grow faster than the company, they're going to continue to grow faster than s&p earnings, but so, you would rather, mike nvidia over apple, even though the fears of a pull forward in terms of chips may exist out there? just trying to, you know, valuation is one thing, and projected growth is one thing, but if you -- you believe there's any sort of hiccup in the chip story of it, maybe nvidia is not the choice over apple? apple -- >> the forecast for nvidia is already for much slower growth year and year when we look at full year 2025. so, you know, we're looking at probably 25 times number on a 50% growth rate, which is less than half what they achieved over the trailing 12-month period that we just completed.

so, it's not growing as fast as it did and i don't expect it to, because things don't grow to the moon. but it is also fair to say that 35 times forward 10% annual eps growth is just pricey for apple. it's pricey relative to apple's own history and pricey for any stock and there are companies growing faster than cost less. >> yeah, and one thing we want to think about here, the general consensus here is, we like apple, it's not where you want to add your future money to right now, those are two separate conversations, but one other additional thing to consider, they have a lot of supply chains in china and taiwan, that does impose additional risk. on top of that, when you really look at them, their anti-trust regulations, right? they're going to be another one who the government is continuing to look at to see, is this something they're going to come after them and is that going to affect their bottom line? i think it's not a bad stock to own, but a lot of people are overexposed here. it is imbedded in most etfs,

something you want to say, maybe i add to somewhere else right now. >> maybe that's what puts the floor in this stock, and the mag seven in general, bonawyn, the idea that so much money passive money, going into etfs, all these etfs own the same stocks. obviously mirrors the way the mag seven out there. i mean -- does this sort of provide a support for this group of stocks going into '25 knowing that just incremental dollars passively invest in the market go to the mag seven? >> i think it brings up two things. i think, yes, to your point, i think capital flows really dictate performance. whether we want to -- i'm sure not everybody agrees with that. we have the active versus the passive argument all of the time and i think there are periods where, you know, you can find data that will support one versus the other. i think there are a lot of people that would argue that passive gives you better performance. on a net basis. and if that is the case, and that's the underlying

fundamentals that are going into your investing decisions, really what you have to do is look at capital flows, and to your point, 20% or 25% of the wakting is the top seven or eight names in the s&p. that is not going to change. that does not mean that volatility necessarily gets muted as flows run in and out. but if you are allocating the equities, by definition, you are alow kafting to those names, and it does provide a floor. >> david einhorn said the plight of the value investor is all the passive money not going to value strategies and going to these same groups of stocks. >> yeah, i -- i do think that that is a little bit of a problem, i mean, first of all, there is plenty of data that supports investors doing that, i mean, the reports, which, you know, s&p puts out, i think, 90% of active managers, once you start factors in things like taxes, you start factoring in fees, are going to underperform

something like spy, for example, as an etf, one of a few that actually track the s&p 500 or other passive strategies that you can get from other sources. so, it makes sense when you look at it that way. soirt of it takes stress off investors, as well. but it also presents a risk. you can get too much of a good thing. and there's a lot of reasons to, you know, follow a passive investment and systematic investment strategy, but it does have this effect where you are getting more and more money piling into fewer and fewer stocks. many of them have done very well, but if something in that group turns, that can be very painful, i think. >> yeah, and julie, i guess -- you've owned apple, you said, for 12 years at this point, so, you are exposed to the mag seven, but your focus is small caps, and i don't think that group has benefitted at all from this sort of huge influx of retail money going into the largest stocks outs there through the s&p 500 and various, you know, iterations of it. >> yeah, i think that's right. i keep talking to financial advisers and most of them do not

have any exposure to small caps, and when they get these large rallies in small caps that they miss out on, they tend to do that by investing passively. and that's the place where i don't think that makes a lot of sense for passive in flows, because 40%, 45% of the index is nonprofitable. so, i think that's the one place where i would say, active management can really make a lot of sense and have an impactful point of returns. it's a place where investment managers tend to do better than in large cap, because i think there's less price discovery and those markets are generally a little less efficient. but i think mike's point is really the one. you do get too much of a good thing if you're investing for diversification into some of these passive instruments, and you end up actually having a ton of exposure that's pretty concentrated. unwittingly. >> yeah. meantime, the dollar also having a memorable year. the greenback trading near its highest levels since november 2022. and it's up more than 7% just this quarter. our next guest warns the dollar strength may be on borrowed

time. david wu held top foreign exchange rules at bank of america and barclays. david, great to have you with us. what's going to cause the dollar to come back down to earth at this point? >> you know what, i'm going to sound cliche, i'm going to say world peace, you know? because let's remember, you know, u.s. foreign policy under biden, okay, has been pushing the world to the edge of world war iii, hurting u.s. allies and adversaries alike. i think that's why the dollar has been so strong in the last three years. u.s. stock market's outperformed because the u.s. is relatively speaking less exposed to slowing global trade and the dollar benefiting the safe haven. so, to the tent that trump is coming wanting to improve ties with china, that he wants the end the war in ukraine, you know, this is very good news for the rest of the world, and i think -- i'm not saying this is bad news for the dollar, i just think it's better for basically

currencies of the other countries. >> sure. those particular countries, and i like the theme of world peace david, don't get me wrong, but there are a lot of factors particular factors to various countries, canada's political turmoil, france's political turmoil, the policy in japan, we're not sure what the path of the yen is going to be at this point. we might see further weakening. and then also, of course, the weakness in china economically, i mean, these are things that world peace will not solve, i don't think, david. >> i think you're right. i mean, but that's why you have to look at these countries on a case-by-case basis. i'm actually the only dollar position i've got on short dollar is actually the mexican peso. i happen to like the mexican peso, partly because i think trump will have to be super nice to the mexicans to deliver on his promise in terms of controlling illegal immigration. i think mexico's already going out of its way to meet trump

halfway, you know, as you probably know, they just cracked down on 1 ton of fentanyl, a record seizure. khanna is really interesting. i actually trudeau, who is facing re-election, okay, over the next 12 months, actually has no choice but to play ball with trump. i think this is the reason why, you know, his, you know, deputy prime minister resigned last week, because trudeau actually decided to make peace. i think france is a lost cause, i think the bigger story, i think, is going to be what happens in germany, but there's a federal election to be held if february can produce actually a government majority. i think it's still too close to call right now, but we shall see. finally with china, i think a lot is riding on what xi jinping is going to do with trump, attend his inauguration. i think there's no deal to be made, trump is going to go hard

on tariffs. i think if he comes, that should be viewed generally speaking as very bullish for emerging market currencies. >> so, right now, sort of the question mark over the euro, question mark over hina, depending on how xi jinping proceeds with the inauguration, canadian collar should strengthen and also the mexican peso. investors are assuming there's going to be a trade war within north america, but these border wars are going to flare up. i mean, there's the article in "the journal" this morning about the price of the affordable vehicle going up by $3,000 because of -- because of -- they're made in mexico. i think we lost david's feed. we'll try to get him back. this is a very interesting, topic, in terms of the dollar strength. we watched this very carefully, mike, obviously, because of the impact of a strong dollar on earnings. we've already heard some companies refer to the strong dollar as a headwind. >> yeah, i mean, obviously i

wonder a lot about what's going to be going on with china. i mean, i think there has been some conversation, sort of, to david's point, about the potential increase in trade, even though the nafta countries, canada and mexico in particular, everybody was talking about the potential for tariffs. there is some migration into mexico for trade, so much so that even china was sort of disguising some of their trade through mexico to try to take advantage of that. i think that relationship is going to remain strong. look, strategically, for us, it's far better for us to improve our trading relationships with our immediate neighbors. and i think that one way or the other, we're going to find a way to do that. >> all right, david, i'm going to bring you back. so, are investors offsides in terms of their assumption that there will be tariffs, that there will be a trade war amongst the nafta countries? >> i think definitely, i think, i mean, i don't think -- nafta, i think -- i think with china

right now, one of the reasons the dollar is so strong today is because everybody is actually banking on a tariff war, okay? on china, already starting the day after the inauguration. this is why people think, well, inauguration is only three weeks away, let's basically build a long dollar and short treasury position. now, i ersonally think, though, i actually personally think -- i would give it a 66% chance, a two-third chance that actually xi jinping will come to the inauguration. i think trump is going out of his way to sound insincere. trump, in his first press conference after the election, said that xi jinping is an amazing guy. xi jinping has not heard those words from a u.s. president for four years. this is an opportunity of a lifetime. i think, you know, xi jinping is not a natural risk taker, but i think this is almost like, if he's ever going to take risk is now.

i actually think that this is an amazing opportunity for a reset. i think -- i'm willing to bet the next two, three weeks, the dollar is going to go up, because people are going to be basically putting on the trump tariff trades, but i will be looking to basically sell it, as we get closer to the -- to the inauguration. >> all right, always interesting conversation, david, thank you. david woo. david woo unbound. what do you think of that, julie biel, in terms of, you know, seeing that dollar weaken from the levels it's at now, basically two-year highs? because a lot of people are just assuming that things are going to be so bad around the world still, tariff wars, ukraine, et cetera. >> yeah, it's not -- you know, people who are making that bet are just benefiting from the previous data that's really shown that. if you had a major domestic focus in your portfolio, you've outperformed. it's been the better place to be since the pandemic. and i think that's surprised a lot of people, the strength and

the resilience that is happening here, despite our government in absolute chaos. so, i think going forward, it's still the case that probably economically this is the better positioned and more dynamic economy that can withstand any kind of changes globally. however, it is the most expensive one, too, so, i think there's opportunities for investors to be able to diversify into less expensive markets that are growing probably just as well. and maybe a little bit more on cover to find. >> all right. and we do have some sad news to report. richard parsons, a titan of the business community, has died at the age of 76 years old. he held leadership positions at citi group, cbs, and a host of other companies. his passing was come firmed by lazard. he spent much of his career stepping in during corporate emergencies including at citigroup during the financial crisis, and most recently at cbs after the departure of les

moonves. he was also on the board of the national museum of african american history and culture.

welcome back to "fast money." the holiday shopping season may finally be over, but was it nice or naughty for retailers? mastercard saying in its latest spending poll survey that holiday spending was up 3.8% this year. but shoppers were searching for value. online shopping , holiday promotions, and experiences driving the jump in sales. macy's, foot locker, five below, dick's and ulta all seeing gains. target up 3% today, posting its highest close since its q-3 earnings report last month. so, what does the retail trade look like for 2025? and what was interesting in that survey, the uptick in spending on stuff. so, apparel, electronics. the stuff that we used to put under the tree is now back under the tree, or was back under the tree, bonawyn. >> yeah, listen, i -- given that there has been concern around the consumer, this retail sector does have the propensity to

outperform, because it's a bit of a counter trade. i would say in addition to that mastercard data, there was data showing that the additional credit card debt load was about $1,200 of unexpected additional debt load. you add that to the $1.2 trillion that we already have, i don't think that we can persist to have increasing debt, higher interest rate, higher debt service cost, and still have healthy consumption. so, i think one of those levers has to pull. and ultimately, i think that in the short-term, perhaps, retail has a chance to continue to run. but that is also the very first place i would looking at in terms of cracks, possible cracks in the canary in the coal mine. >> i get that as a commentary on the sector, but that additional $1,200 in debt may not really make a difference in terms of the household income of that particular person who has that extra debt, courtney. and that's a story that's played

out all year in terms of the bifurcated retail sector, the haves and the have nots. >> exactly. and the higher income consumer has been much more resilience, obviously, which makes more sense. but when you're looking at the overall debt compared to income, it's still really not a concerning level. especially when you look at pre-covid. it's not higher than it was back then, so, that's a thing. consumers generally speaking can sustain the dead, to your point, and currently, they can. and we just got labor day that that came out again, which is showing a bit of a cooling, but very consistent labor. and that is going to continue to keep the consumer strong. so, i would not write off the consumer here. people keep finding ways to do it, but we do have a resilient economy. an when we look at things happening with immigration, and the baby boomers that are retiring every single week, every single year, more and more people are coming out of the labor market, which is why 're going to continue have a tight labor market. >> mike khouw, i want some

retail stock picks, if you have any, if you have stomach retail. what was under the tree? do you think that's an indicator of any sorts? >> i do. i have that holly index that i'm always watching. and i have two teenage sons, also, so, i get a pretty good sense of where it is on athletic apparel, in particular, and the winner this year was on holdings, actually. there was more than one item from on holdings for everybody this year, and also, i think, lululemon, you know, this was obviously not a good year, but i think this is actually a bargain relative to names like nike. so, i would much rather be there, but on oldings was certainly high on the list. and you could, if you want to skew towards, you know, a better demographic on the payment side, what people are using to throw down to buy these things, you know, maybe you could go to american express, though they've had quite a run, i think that's, you know, pretty good place to go, as well. all right, that's a lot more

"fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> santa's closed up shot for the season, but game stop is still getting gifts. the roaring kitty post that's stuffing investor stockings, and how the options pits are handling the moves. plus, netflix looking to move the sticks, after a christmas day nfl double feature. were viewers tuning in? ancod it mean a big change ancod it mean a big change for advertisers and fans well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

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welcome back to "fast money." game stop getting a post-christmas present this year. shares up 6% after a cryptic post from, who else, roaring kitty. keith gill posting a holiday themed image of a present from his x account yesterday morning and with gme shares up 80% this year, options traders are hoping the good times keep ringing in the new year. mike khouw, what do you see? >> we saw more than 50% above average call volume in this one, traded 300,000 calls. and this on a day when overall options volumes were about 16% below their 50-day moving average, and the calls were outpacing puts by about 5 to 1.

the busiesttracts were the 35-strike calls. paying a decent bit to make calls this week. i would make one point. even though the short interest still remains quite high here, the short squeeze risk, at least as measured by the options market, we can look out and see what the implied cost to borrow the shares is. it's not nearly what it once was. so, if people are playing for a short squeeze, could you get one? maybe, but the probably ility i not nearly as high as it once was. >> right, and it's not like the 80% gain on the year is based on any sort of glimmers of even a slight tick-up in business, i mean, sales have declined year on year for five straight quarters, expected to decline a sixth quarter in january, julie. maybe this is more of a commentary on the psyche of the market and the willingness to take race snk. >> yeah, i think that's absolutely right. i think people are still very much locked into this idea of

get rich quick trading. and i have spent time on these message boards and some of the ideas are actually based in fundamental analysis and they're quite good. this really is not one of them, okay? to the level of market cap that this is, it's larger than many of the businesses that i typically trade in that are real businesses with cash flow earnings, and it's really hard to understand what the end game looks like for this. so, i just -- i'm a little bit hands off here. >> yeah. bonawyn? >> yeah, i tend to echo a lot of the sentiments. short-term trading strategies are now becoming longer term investment strategies, and that's highly concerning. to julie and mike's point, first of all, the market cap, the float and shares outstanding, coupled with the pull-back in short interest and the cost to borrow mean that the technical aspect that was once exmroilted exploited is no longer there. given there's been an 80% run, you question the validity of

continuing on that path. coming up, a two-point conversion for netflix. how the christmas nfl double feature fared for the streaming giant, and it's enough to move the sticks for an ad-supported tier. more on that when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back. stocks closing mixed on a thin trading day. the s&p nasdaq both virtually flat. the dow, as well, buteeking out a small gain. adding to the pro crypto stance from the incoming trump administration. a lot of questions around that filing, number one being, what is a bitcoin bond? netflix, we should talk about that, upping the stakes in its live sports streaming market. the company broadcast two live nfl games on christmas day. it's the latest foray into sports this year after the jake paul ersus mike tyson fight. julia boorstin has the details, and we are expecting the numbers

any minute now, right julia? >> any minute now, melissa. i was just checking to see if they had come in. nielsen is going to be reporting how many people watched nfl's -- the netflix nfl games, but early indications, just from what we've heard so far from netflix are positive. netflix reporting that nearly 200 countries tune into the pregame show and netflix reported that during the chiefs versus steelers game, nearly a third of all of its concurrent viewers all around the world were watching, with more concurrent viewers than any christmas in the past four years, and viewership only behind the tyson/paul fight. the nba christmas games averaged 5.25 million viewers per game in the u.s., the league's most-watched christmas day in five years. the lakers/warriors match-up with 8 million viewers. those numbers are notable, because it's bouncing back from a 20% decline in nba ratings up

until this past week. now, netflix is bringing in an estimated $150 million in ads for yet's games. that's the same amount that it reportedly paid to license the games, but of course, it paid more to create and produce and pay beyonce for her halftime show. but analysts do expect a payoff here in subscriber addition, and subscriber retention, and those two factors, plus additional ad revenue is why netflix is increasingly investing in sports. just licensing the next two women's fifa world cups and netflix kicks off its big partnership with wwe with a live show on monday night. certainly a growth area for the streamer. >> how should we think about netflix paying big bucks, julia, for live events like nfl games versus creating a sort of its own sports programming, like a tyson/jake paul fight? >> well, i think these are two different categories here. it will be interesting to see how the numbers play out.

not just the numbers that we get on viewership, but what we see in terms of subscriber additions in this crucial fourth quarter. one thing that i have to point out here is that netflix is going to stop reporting subscriber numbers as of the first quarter. so, the sub numbers we get for q-4 will be the last time we see how these investments in things like the tyson/paul fight or the nfl pay off. one thing i've heard a lot about is something like the fight was actually great for subscriber addition, a firm said that netflix gained 1.5 million subs just from that fight. but here in the u.s., there's an ption that people that watch nfl already have netflix. so, maybe in the u.s., netflix is using the nfl more for retention. so, each of these different types of events will play a different role, whether it's subscriber retention or subscriber addition or really

driving ad results which is key, as they try to build out their ad business. >> you mentioned internationally. there are these concurrent viewers all around the world, so, could that be a lever in terms of increasing the subs overseas and maintaining the core audience here in the u.s.? >> yeah, absolutely. i think that's -- that's likely how this will play out. the nfl would be good for subscriber retention here in the u.s., but could be more of a subscriber addition driver globally. and for the nfl this is really a fantastic way for them to expand their reach. the nfl had five international games this year, next year, they're going to have eight international games, which is a record. the commissioner has said they're considering increasing to as many as 16 international games. and if you think about who might be a natural partner to distribute the international games, certainly netflix is well positioned. and you can really imagine how, especially if these numbers look good, netflix and the nfl will work a lot more together. >> all right, keep us posted, julia, thank you. julia boorstin on this major

netflix event. julie, how do you feel about netflix here? >> i think it's kind of an interesting place. it's not cheap, but i think that these nfl events are really critical, because this is actually an audience that's very comfortable with ads. they expect ads, they off havete to watch ads because they want to see the content live. so, being able to crack this market and execute it on really well and drive growth here is critical to the ad tier that they are trying to build out. and i think it is also kind of a competitive positioning thing, where if they take more away from tv, they get advertisers more and more confident in their own ad market they're trying to build. i think it's important for both the consumer side and also the ad base building. >> i think what's really going to be interesting here, they're getting much more into the live space, but they've had so many glitches and so many issues, and i think this one is probably the one that went off the best, and they really need to obviously get that technology under control here. but i think that's something you

have to look at. it's a lot more expensive for them to air an nfl game than it is to produce some of their content, but it's something that's going to be constantly updated that people are going to want to watch. you have to have the new big thing and the new content, and that's the biggest race wk a netflix. are they always going to have the new media and new content to bring the subscribers there? this is a company that's really been the front and center as you cut cable and you go to streaming, they have been the beneficiary, but as you continue to see more concentration, more saturation in the space, i think the question is, are they going to continue to justify how expensive they are, trading at 40 times earnings? so, i would actually put this in the same category as apple. it's not -- it's a stock i like, not a stock i'm adding new money to. coming up, they say money doesn't grow on trees, but this stock hopes to prove that wrong. why the chart master is eyeing dollar tree for some big bucks. plus, will 2025 be the year of the small cap? our resident russell expert is laying out the names on her ray bar, and how she sees small caps

faring in the neyew ar. her picks, when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money." dollar tree popping almost 4% today, but still down 46% this year. the chart master out with a note

this morning saying the discount store could bounce back in the new year. let's bring him in now for all the details. carter, what do you see here? >> yeah, what a dud. imagine being down 46% after today's pop, but -- before we look at the charts, this is the kind of thing, they don't do anything different, they sell batteries, toothbrushes in there, you can probably get a blender. it doesn't need to exist, perhaps, as a retailer, but as it goes, the stock is where it was ten years ago. we think you can play it for a bounce. let's look at the charts. the first three are identical, they're all ten-year charts. the hope here is to depict, clearly, how well defined those lows are. we were here in 2015, we were exactly here in covid. we were here about six months ago and we bounced just in the past two, three weeks off this key 60 level. this next chart, that down trend line might look arbitrary, but we're going to get that on the short-term. final chart on the long-term, you can depict this as a triple

bottom. it's a popular designation. anyway, the here and now chart, so, that downtrend line, this will be the -- we just started to move away this downtrend, 150 to 50. and there are two key gaps, final chart. the stock really plunging in late august and early september. and to fill those gaps, that's the price objective from my seat, the first gap comes into play at 82, 83, and the uppermost around 92, 93. so, for a trade, a beaten down dud of a stock just catching it and trying to play it accordingly. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton worth of worth charting. mike khouw, this is a company that's really, you know, has a lot on its plate in terms of the low income consumer, not spending, having a difficult time coping with inflation, but also the potential onslaught of tariffs that could really put pressure on already very thin

margins. >> razor thin margins. that's really the company's problem, isn't it? and, you know, you have -- you have a consumer that doesn't have a lot of financial flexibility, and then you're getting pressured on the cost side. it's kind of a tough recipe. what is interesting is that if they can't expend those margins even incrementally, this is a company that will do better than $30 billion in sales probably for the full year. that's up 50% from where it was at the end of 2019. and the company, the enterprise value is about the same. there is a bit more debt on the balance sheet, but they have $700 million in cash and still some free cash flow, so, if one wanted to play it for a bounce, the options aren't cheap. i think they are justifiably expensive, but you can go out and try to capture the next couple of earnings cycles and buy some longer dated calls. that's the way i would be inclined to play it. >> i feel like carter's never been in a dollar tree. maybe i'm wrong. certainly no blenders there. you can't get that for a dollar, or $1.25. would you play this for a trade?

>> for a trade, yes. some of the fundamentals, particularly the tepid revenue growth and shrinking eps growth make it a bit tougher. need to be some changes, probably margin expansion, for you to want to hold this longer term. >> i think as a short-term trade, everything carter laid out, i would agree with. longer term, there is some, you know, hesitation there, and they're actually getting a lot of share taken from larger retailers like a walmart. people are choosing to go there instead, and kind of getting all things in one place. and there is a concern, kind of have to increase a lot more money to open an renovate their new stores. short-term as a trade, might be worth a look. coming up, small caps underperforming the broader market this year, but can 2025 turn that around? where julie biel is eeing the biesopggt portunity. more "fast money" in two.

z's bakery is looking to add a pizza oven, arissa's hair salon wants to expand their space, and steve's t-shirt shop wants to bring on more help. with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee, they can think more about possibilities for their business and not the cost of their internet. it's five years of gig-speeds and advanced security. all from the company with 99.9% network reliability. get the 5-year price lock guarantee, now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™. welcome back. as 2024 comes to an end, we're looking for the next place to invest in 2025. cnbc's annual delivering alpha investor survey asked investors which asset class they favored heading into 2025. small cap stocks topped the list with almost a third of the vote. big cap tex, s&p 500 and the

equal weighed s&p were all tied for second place with 14% of the vote. small cap russell 2,000 did outperform today, but it's lagging the s&p. we wanted to ask our resident expert julie which names could lead the way. so, julie, which ones are your favorites? >> so, i have a few that i think are interesting. within small cap, the real thing is to find the businesses that have the ability to compound their earnings over time. you do want to be very careful about the nonearning types of businesses. those are the ones that are going to be more economically sensitive and more in trouble. the first i would talk about would be lmat. this is a company that focuses on niche health care. they operate in businesses where they have a lot of market share. it doesn't raise the ire of regulation. but what's great, the markets are too small for the larger medical device companies to really enter and try to attack. so, they quietly benefit from being able to stay small and make acquisitions.

another one i really like is ollie's bargain outlets. this is a company that i think is really going to benefit from the big lots bankruptcies that we've seen. this is a company that's done really well in providing a lot of value to customers. they operate in the closeout markets, and that's a place where people are really starting to flock to, right? they've been able to actually take share from the dollar tree and family dollar businesses, because they can have a lot more interesting merchandise. the other one i like, i have generally been very disinterested in banks, i just don't find that to be a place where there's a lot of differentiation, but they make up a large part of the smaller cap indexes. i like companies that serve banks, so, encino is a good example of this. a software business that helps smaller banks modernize their front end. this is a company that will really benefit longer term, and they're using a.i., as well. and melissa, the last one, i

think we see less regulation, that's going to benefit their m&a boutique business really well. julie, thank you. up next, final trades.

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. julie? >> as mentioned, ncino. i think we see software in a.i. next year. >> mike khouw? >> yeah, i like meta. i like the multiple, i like the free cash flow and i like the growth. >> courtney? >> as we are ending the year here, i think you want to make sure you are broadening out your portfolio. small caps are something you want to add more money to. i would play the iwm here. >> nice. like a tag team from julie and courtney. bonawyn? >> so, we spent a lot of time debating dollar strength and if

that will continue. i'm not one to try to pick a top, but i think with the trend continuing the way it is, really want to have concerns about dollar denominated debt. so, for that reason, i'm a seller of eem. >> all right, thank you so much for watching "fast." see you tomorrow on "squawk box." meti, dot goanmen' anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i am cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. now, my friends, i'm just here to try to help you make some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800- 743-cnbc. jim cramer. you want to know the single

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