from business optimism and more favorable m and a at 17 times where we'd be. >> nvidia. 2025 is going to be the year of black well, and the hyper builds are going to continue to spend. >> goldman sacks. >> interactive brokers, volatility, range expansion happening over the last 30 days benefits the brokers. >> that's going to do it for halftime. "the exchange" starts right now. thanks for watching. welcome to "the exchange," everybody. i am brian in for kelly today. here's what's ahead. the bulls are taking a breather on the final days of the year. the dow and the s & p headed for their worst month since april. but the question that we try to answer for all of you today is, is this just a brief year-end fizzle or the sign of something long term. what to invest in next year and some are not so obvious.

here's an example. this is one of the names. it's an energy stock. it's up big this year, and it's not a monster name. do you have ideas? well tweet us, if you think you know. and housing taking a hit as interest rates soar. so where are borrowing costs headed? we're going to find out. all right, folks we've got a lot to do today in those recently higher rates, they're also hitting stocks. why don't we start there with bob at the new york stock exchange, and what is going on as we round out this year? bob., good to see you. >> we had a cell program this morning, advancing the declining stocks early on. but it's turned around. around 10:30, the whole market turned around. we're is slowly moving towards the highs today, though still low almost everywhere. the dow industrials, s & p 500, the low is is 5889 for the s & p. so we're 30 points higher

than that. same for the s & p and the dow. the low was about two and a half hours ago. big cap tech, generally down. nvidia has been struggling for months. most of you know, it's really been sideways for months. broad com is the new darling in the semiconductor space. apple, tesla, all down, but still well off their lows. the last time we had a really notable big volume day was december 20th. that was the expiration, and of course that was the rebalancing that we saw. if you look at some of the major s & p 500 etfs, where a lot of tactical trading occurs, they are used for tactical purposes. the volume here for all of the big names, all typical of isn't averages here. elsewhere, i wanted to talk about what we're doing for the handoff in 2025. the stock investors. the 2025 handoff is about as

good as it gets. but there are some very significant headwinds. here's the good news, first and foremost. still a very strong economy. 3% gpd. second, record profits for a second year in 2025. 15% expected in 2025. by the way, this is not just from the tech sector. undervalued sectors like healthcare and materials and industrials are expected to see profit increases in the high teens. it's not just profits that are up. the margins are expected to remain near a record 12%, which means corporate america is keeping a very large portion of the revenues they take in as profits. but there are potential headwinds. there are several of them. there's the risk the fed will make a policy error by refusing to cut rates for inflation and the mandate. the second risk, the trump administration strengths, and they are strengths, but those strengths could be countered by tariffs that are too high and

might hurt growth. third, with tech prices near record highs, there's a potential for a rethink of the a.i. story as investors may revolt against endless rounds of spending. more likely scenario would see tech prices stagnate even as profits continue to improve, which could be good news, and may result in lower valuations for tech stocks, and maybe higher valuations for undervalued like health stocks and materials. finally, resulting in the higher spending and the possibility they could force interest rates higher. brian we saw that in december and that may be a very real issue for 2025. >> bob, always a pleasure to have you on, of course. bob pisani. there is your macro set up. your first guess this hour does remain optimistic about the set up into 2025, and he sees several themes and trades you may want to add to your

portfolio. let's hop right in with drew pettitte. good to have you on. what are some of the macro themes that you and citigroup are telling your clients about for next year. >> so a couple things. first off, on the growth side, we think the a.i. story is real. i appreciate what bob's covering here, but honestly, a.i. productivity gains, high level fundamentals look really good for the s & p 500. i think that helps us get through some of the more volatile periods. but at the same time, inflation, not quite done yet. then when you think of the valuation setup, a lot of good news is price thin. >> so there's actually a lot to unpack there. some of the good news, you're optimistic about some of the a.i. themes. now the market obviously drew, very optimistic about a.i. for the last year plus. what will continue or what

might change in '25? >> so it's funny. i think the fundamental stories at least for the picks and shovels names they continue. but where we think the trade is actually going to broaden out, and honestly, it has for the past year, is to some of the users of a.i. think of some of the car companies that do autonomous driving. even to some of the more cyclical names. yes, the picks and shovels, the enablers of the trade were attractive for the most part in 2024. we think a.i. continues to broaden out into the year ahead. >> i don't want to be negative about it, because it's been unbelievable, and it may change the world, who knows? but i'm getting old. i look back at history and think we built fiber optic cables. they spent a lot of money, they did a lot of good, but they went bankrupt in the process. not everyone's going to win,

drew. there's no way all of those companies we talk about every single day, they're all going to win. >> it's funny, we think that. this is a game changer. but where we get more selective is thinking about the names that aren't priced to perfection. i don't want to sit here and talk about ratios and a lot of backward looking stuff. we basically try to back out what's the market pricing in? we actually think there are some opportunities when you step out of just the names. >> where is that? >> so i think a really great example in the semiconductor space is marvel. we always want to talk about nvidia all the time. we get it. they're a leader in the space, but marvell has some custom a.i. chips and that part of their business is going to grow almost 200 percent next year

and another 60% after that. so that becomes a very interesting semiconductor name in an a.i. story, and honestly, the semiconductor industry group which we all find attractive in 25. >> everybody loved nvidia, and we still do. marvell may be the next one. why? what need do they fill that the others don't? >> it's that custom area. they have a partnership with aws that has really helped this stock kick into gear in the last couple of quarters. honestly, you're getting a little bit outside. of the mag 7 as well. this is actually a stock that's not in the s & p 500. it could be. but we're looking at a very big market cap name that should have gap profitability in the years ahead. >> some of the other names you've got there, some smaller

cap names. you've got darling agreements. they do animal fats. a couple of fossil fuel companies. baker hughes on your list. but i also not a united airlines. the airlines have been strong. every plane is full. why the continued strength in carnival cruise lines and united? some of the names on your list. >> i think this is what's really interesting about the consumer. when we talk about global tourism, which is one of our top ten themes for next year, it's actually not very interest- rate sensitive and we've seen that in the airlines. also, with a better competitive set up, the airlines look much more attractive than they did pre-covid. so they're working off a lower base and you're seeing that roe improvement, that margin improvement in that inflection story probably improving into 2025, after a really solid 2024. >> also bullish on some of the video game stocks. i see roblox on the name, but also draftkings.

i used to do a lot with sports gaming. i did really well for a while, then i did absolutely horribly. what's the bull thesis on draftkings? because i do worry, i don't have to say drew, if you sports gamble at all, that the fees and the taxes and everything, you wonder what's the value proposition. >> so i think this is about the platform. honestly, before we get into the details, i get in trouble if i didn't say it this, but go bills. honestly, i do think the draftkings platform could have some operating leverage from here. we actually saw that moving from 2023 into 2024. you see earnings growth inflecting faster than sales did. so there is more legalization across states that could help drive this story. but this platform is to scale, where they could turn on the cash printing machine. i think for 2024 for us, it was

operating leverage. this year, it's about follow- through and further improvement. i think this stock fits that narrative very, very well. >> even if it's the only chargers fan left, i have a friend name bruce smith. if it's not the chargers, i'm hoping my friends in orchard park do well. drew pettitte, thanks very much. >> for more on the macro be sure to catch this guy. kyle bass. never heard of him. i'm kidding. obviously, well known to our audience. he'll be on the next hour. "power lunch" coming up in the 2:00 hour. 2:00 p.m. eastern by the way. all right, so drew just kind of gave the optimistic view on where the markets have maybe not been optimistic lately. and certainly one area that that's been the case has been home builders. some of the biggest players in

the space. names like toll brothers, lennar, pulte. they've been floored lately. as interest rates go up, the stocks go down and many are tracking for the worst month since march of 2020. although we know what kind of a buying opportunity that turned out to be. let's bring in diana for a discussion about housing. >> those stocks are down after a pretty volatile year, we're back at the highs with a 30 year fixed well over 7%. expectations last year would be in the low 6s and that is just nowhere anywhere on the prediction. builders have been buying down mortgage rates, but it's really hitting their margins now. all that said when you look on the existing home side, we just got the read on pending home sales in november.

up 2.2%. up 6.9% from november of last year. that's the fourth straight month of games. this count is based on signed contracts so it's people out shopping in november when the average on the 30 year fixed spent much of the month over 7%, before coming down. the realtor's cheap economist says realtors are now used to higher rates so brian that means 7 is the new 5 maybe? >> i love the new math. especially when it comes to interest rates. diana, speaking of housing, we hear that home flippers are having -- i don't mean they had free money for a couple years, but it seemed a really easy gig, but it's gotten a lot harder in the last few months. >> big surprise, because of the mortgage rates. both flips and hope flipping profits took a dive in the third quarter of this year on a new report from adam data. in q3, 7.2% of home sales were flips. that's down from 7.6% in q2.

but the returns showed a much bigger drop. flips had an average 28.7% return on investment. that's before additional expenses down from 31.2% in q2. that ended six straight quarters of increases in that metric. so it's a real turn in the market, nd that profit margin was roughly half, half of the peak profits hit in 2016. this is where higher mortgage rates come in. that profit margin is within the range that could easily be wiped out by carrying costs like the higher rates as well as higher renovation prices and expenses. gross profits fell to about $78,000. down $5,000 from the second quarter, and down $10,000 from the highs reached two years ago. we also saw in the november close sales report from the realtors that the investor

shares fell to 13% from 18% last year. that's from flippers and people buying a home to perhaps rent it out. >> i think if i was buying a home, i would do it all in cash. >> nice of you to have the cash. >> i wouldn't do it, because i'm a financial coward. those people getting exposed and getting hit. diana, thank you. i have a feeling not done with the story. folks we are just getting started on deck. so much for the so-called santa claus rally. are some investors right to blame jpal and the fed for the recent sell-off? and since i'm here today, how is this for an rbi? if the s & p 500 closes down 1% or more today, it would be the first time since 1952 that we have seen two 1% declines in the last five trading days of the year.

you catch that? first time in what? 72 or whatever years. two 1% declines to end the year. if that's not random, but interesting, i don't know what is. "the exchange" is back after this.

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all right, welcome back to "the exchange." kelly is off today. it's good to be here with you. stocks though, they're lower with just two trading days left in the year. unless things turn around, it

could be a rough january. carson group's ryan dietrich says the last two times stocks fell during this time, which is the so-called santa claus rally, you've heard that a billion times, when stocks cool down this week and the first couple days next year, we tend to post a negative january. that does not mean this is going to happen this time. but history says the numbers are there. just something maybe to tuck into all of your heads. your next guest expects the first half of next year to be volatile, and says it is prudent to de-risk portfolios. joining us now is max wasserman. max, good to have you on. what does derisk a portfolio mean to you? >> well thank you for having me. on. when we look at de-risking is, take the profits and take some of the money as we've been saying. we're not saying get out of them. but the valuations are so high,

don't expect that rate to continue. and for people owning these stocks that have gone very high in their portfolios, de-risking means bring it down. we have investments in some of these magnificent sevens, but we are trimming these positions because at these evaluations we think it's asymmetrical risk reward. they've been running at such a level. in the bond market, we think stay short term. because we could see people surprised and see a ten year floating at 5% or higher next year. >> if we're selling like the nvidia's of the world, and they've made just bags of money. they've done fantastically well. i get your point. what are we using the proceeds for? are we putting it under the mattress, or are we going to reinvest some of that hard earned capital into something else, and if so what else? >> sure. there's other parts of the

market that are trading in more reasonable valuations. if you look at healthcare companies, we like them. we like the merck's, the bristol meyers. we like it at 3 or 4%. we like some of the defense stocks. the lockheed martins. you've made so much money the past two or three years, and everyone is anticipating the fed is it there. the fed has already told you they're backing down the number of cuts. imagine if you could get a high interest rate, these could really kill the interest rate stocks. we like companies, but we're saying the magnificent 7 has been priced to perfection. as you know, everybody is pricing these things like you're going to grow a 20 to 30% a year, and historically, that doesn't happen. >> because i'll be in the city

lately, and there's a good chance the taxicab guy is going to recognize, because they have cnbc on in the taxicab, he's going to ask about nvidia. i hate to be like a broken record, but it does remind me of 2000, when people were saying, i'm just in it for the 20%. like it was a guaranteed thing. nothing in the stock market is, or should be guaranteed, correct? >> well, i agree with you. it does take me back, because i remember being in the cabs in new york city and in chicago where i'm at, and the taxi driver telling us buy internet stocks, because they were the church of what's working now. we're cautious. again, you've made money. we're not saying get out of them. we're saying lower your exposure to some of it. i think you're going to get a pull back in this market. you saw just what happened when the fed changed her mind a little bit. you saw 3.2% pull back in the nasdaq in just one day. we don't see what you're seeing right now as a major pull back. we're talking about a 10% pull

back should be coming. when, i can't tell you. but if you get a 10% in the general market, that means the magnificent 7 could pull back even more. all we're saying is redeploy some of your capital to safer, i say lower valuation dividend growing stocks and i think you'll be rewarded. just don't take this risk, you're not going to be rewarded over the long term. >> it's funny. kelly's off and i'm here and we talk about energy. williams and a one oak. you're going for the sort of pipeline companies even with interest rates where they are. >> yes. because again, we have a pretty large exposure in oneok and another one in williams. we think the growth in pipelines looks very strong. now with the new administration talking about more deregulation, you could see more growth in the pipeline, because you've got to transport

liquid natural gas and transports to oil. they're up 50% for the year. again, we're saying we like them. look for a pull back. we think you're going to get some. then we would go into those positions even more. but we like them, we think it's favorable, the trend. the current administration coming in is very much into growing the pipeline industry, and you know what? we haven't been growing it. we do like them. but again, risk reward, and we're cautioning people when these stocks are up 50% in one year, pick up. because if the fed changes their mind and we start seeing inflation from the new policies or the economy, which is growing at 3%, this gdp around 6%, why is the fed cutting? if they surprise, with all you have the spending going on in the government, all the debts its renewing, we may have to

cut the second half of the year, then look out below. be a little more cautious for the first quarter or two. take your opportunities, but don't run blindly into the magnificent 7. we think there's problems if you will. >> there are people certainly that believe the exact opposite. max wasserman, also of the taxicab, i guess thesis. max, thank you. >> our experience there. >> me too, my man. >> i understand, we've been there. >> crazy. on deck, you know meta, you know microsoft. do you recall the newest a.i. mol ofde all? we'll take an inside look at something called deep seek, and how it's actually crushing the competition. n rentals make you share your turf with a host, try one that's all yours.

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keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. welcome back to "the exchange." i'm morgan brennan with your cnbc news update. israel's ambassador to the united nations warned that the houthis could face the same

quote miserable fate as hamas or hezbollah if they do not stop missile attacks. finish investigators looking into the suspected sabotage of an undersea caple say today they found a drag mark believed to be from a russian-linked ship. authorities said the vessel was seized over the weekend into part of a probe over whether it damaged the cable, which carries electricity last week. and india launched its first space mission. the mission is seen as pivotal for india's future plans in space, particularly the moon, including satellite servicing and operating the country's br >> i look forward to your coverage of the moon and maybe mars and russian ships randomly

dragging anchors over critical power lines. >> which really shows how important infrastructure is in this critical fraught world. now it is time for tech check. today, let's talk about a.i., but not in the way that you all think. there is a new model that has all of the valley buzzing, and it does not come from openai or meta, or google, or any of those names. dierdre bossa, this comes from a rather unusual source. >> it also comes from china, brian. it's called deepseek. here's why it matters. it took google and openai years and billions of dollars to build the largest a.i. models. but now a chance lab has built an a.i.

model just two months and less than $6 million. deepseek looks and acts just like chatgpt. i've been trying it out this morning when i asked what model are you, it answered i'm specifically based on the gpt4 architecture. leaving outside terms of service violations means that entirely new state models can be built on what's already out there. in other words, openai's mote may be shrinking. it signals a rapidly shrinking barrier to a.i. development, challenging the current dominance of industry leaders like openai, and google, and meta. deepseek is backed by a chinese trading firm, high flyer capital management, and it used

nvidia h800s, a lower performance version of the h100 chips that are cheaper, and more available for restricted markets like china. so they were able to sort of go around the h100s, that everyone seems to be looking for here in the west. in fact, it cost deepseek just $5.5 million to train it, versus hundreds of millions of dollars for meta's latest llama model, and billions of dollars for chatgpt models. this all raises an important question for investors. is training frontier models still a good investment? deepseek should make investors look twice. >> why the difference in price? what am i getting for 5.5 million, versus $1 billion? >> that's the thing. you're basically getting a model that's as good as the frontier models that openai and llama have created. so there's third parties that check key benchmarks. these are key capabilities of the different large language

models and they found that the ones from deepseek, which was presumably built on openai and chatgpt data was as good or better in some cases. so it's really remarkable. you get just as much bang for your buck for a lot less. $5.5million versus billions and billions of dollars. i spoke to one source who questioned some of the benchmarks, but nonetheless said this is a massive development. and you know, could make investors question do you need the high end gpu's, if you can get just as much out of the h800s, the dumbed down version. >> if that's the case, it changes a lot of the game, including for energy. but this is one thing. to your point, we'll see where it all goes. deepseek, we're watching you. on deck, and check this

out, folks. nvidia right now, the only big stock, and one semiconductor t ca hhe . bun the company's second biggest continue to carry the group and maybe the entire american stock market into next year? we've got a closer look at the dip in chips. (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com ♪ investment objectives, (realtor) for years, we've been telling clients it's nearly impossible to sell a home in the winter. here's the truth - when i help them sell it fast to opendoor it's a win-win, no matter what the temperature is.

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all right, welcome back. it is a serious and sad day in washington, d.c. and georgia, and for the entire carter family. former president jimmy carter passing away. he lived a big life, making it to 100 years old. of course, carter will be remembered for inflation, sure. being one of the only presidents to make it just one term. but there was a lot more to the man than just that. here's nbc's lester holt, with a closer look at carter's life and his legacy. >> my name is jimmy carter and i'm running for president. >> i went from being jimmy who, to winning the white house itself. then struggled with crises

overseas, and a troubled economy at home. a one-term president whose time as expresident was the longest and most active in american history. james earl carter jr., he always went by jimmy, was born in small town plains, georgia, growing up on a farm without electricity or indoor plumbing. he attend the u.s. naval academy, marid roslyn smith, a friend of his sister's. eventually becoming governor. >> the time for racial discrimination is over. >> reporter: a year later, he ran for the white house. >> i'd like to announce that i am a candidate for the president. >> reporter: and won. a born-again christian who promised voters i will never lie to you. >> i, jimmy carter do solemnly swear. >> reporter: at his best, leading successful peace talks between egypt israel. but closer to home when the economy tanked, so did carter's popularity.

he seemed to blame americans themselves. >> the erosion of our confidence in the future. >> reporter: and it got worse. in iran, scores of americans were taken hostage. and then came a grueling reelection battle. >> i'll bring new hope to america. >> reporter: jimmy carter lost in a landslide. through it all, carter was sustained by his faith. >> you were faced with some huge crises as president. did you drop down to your knees and pray? >> often yes. often. in fact, i prayed more per day while i was president than any other four years in my life. >> reporter: his defeat marked the beginning of a remarkable post-presidency. he established the carter center. committed to advancing human rights and democracy. carter built houses for the poor. and in 2002, was awarded the nobel peace prize.

an extraordinary ex-president proud of his years in the white house. >> restore the peace, we told the truth. never lied to the american people. i feel perfectly at ease with my term. >> reporter: he brought discipline and devotion to everything he did, including his battle with cancer. >> everything's been a blessing for me. so i'm thankful, and hopeful. >> reporter: despite the diagnosis, he continued building houses alongside roslyn. and marked their 75th wedding anniversary in 2021. >> for 75 years, i can't believe. >> reporter: marking the longest presidential marriage in history. in 2024, carter marked another milestone. his 100th birthday. he brought that devotion to everything he did for family and for country until the end. >> and joining us now to

discuss his legacy is nbc news presidential historian, michael michelov. it's a sad day, but jimmy carter was 100 years old. to me, that's he most amazing thing, even when jimmy carter left office he was only 56 years old. which seems quaint today. how do we most remember jimmy carter? >> well, i think some people just as lester was saying, and you know many of our viewers remember him, those who remember him, going through that period. i remember i was getting my mba at harvard business school at that time in the late '70s and inflation was terrible. it was going up to 14%, and carter's policies to some extent had a role in that. at the same time, however, one thing is not looked at as much as it should be. that is he chose for the federal reserve chairman, paul volker in 1979, with an explicit mandate to do

everything he could to try to tap down on inflation, which volker did. carter paid two big costs for that. one was inflation in 1980 was 14%. and interest rates were extremely high. people were really suffering. democrats like ted kennedy were furious at carter and ran against him, and denounced him in public saying this is not a department president if you appoint someone like paul volker. but at the same time, volker's policies worked. although it made carter so unpopular that it made it very hard for him to get reelected against ronald reagan. >> and a lot of people we talked to on the financial side say it's not fair to blame jimmy carter for the inflation that he inherited a lot of the things that were already inflationary, it sounds very similar to joe biden, by the way, when he took office. but as a presidential historian, i think you would

also have to agree, right or wrong,ing presidents and elected officials sometimes have to deal the hand that's been dealt them. and in many ways, carter was not dealt a great inflationary hand. >> he was not. and it even goes back to richard nixon years before wage and price controls. how do you feel about those, brian? richard nixon did those in 1971, to try to bring down inflation and improve the economic picture so that he could get reelected in 1972, which he did. that was not the direct cause of inflation in '79, there was an oil embargo. oil prices were going up, all sorts of things. but all i'm saying is carter should at least be honored for choosing volker and asking him to crush inflation, and ronald reagan, to a get extent was the beneficiary of those policies that came down to 3%. >> now, obviously we've got a nation mourning. i know he's going to lie in

state in atlanta, then he's going to come to d.c. and i believe, michael, and we're kind of waiting on full clarification, that america largely will shut down on the funeral of a president, correct? in fact, it's unlikely, i know the bond market may be open a half day, but it's unlikely that we will see any financial activity on january 9th. >> there will be a day of mourning. i don't know if you're connecting those two things, brian, a lack of financial activity and the shortcomings in jimmy carter's presidency, i think probably a little bit coincidental there. but yes, you're absolutely right. that is going to be a day that people, especially people who were in business and finance like so many of our friends who are watching and listening, should remember that carter was someone who made mistakes, but at the same time, can i throw one other thing out? >> of course. >> and that is that, you know, people think of him as someone

who didn't know how to run a business, carter is someone who took his family's peanut business and became a millionaire by the time he became president. that was not done by lack of business acumen. he came from a small town, ran a small business, just the kind of person that we oftentimes think would make a good president. he was a complex man. did some good things. had some shortcomings as well. >> and carried every state in 1976 as a democrat across the south, which i think alone is a pretty notable accomplishment. >> isn't that amazing? plus texas. >> particularly today. it is incredibly amazing. michael, a real pleasure to get your views. i know you've got a busy day, thank you so much. former president jimmy carter dead at the age of 100 after a two year battle with cancer. rest in peace, president carter. we're back after this.

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all right, welcome back to the exchange. it is a nice piece of market trivia on an overall down day. what is the only so-called mag 7 stock that is higher today? do you know it's nvidia? trying to avoid a second straight negative quarter for the first time in more than two years. there was a lot there. christina, down at the nasdaq. a closer look at a big name on the move. i feel like there was as much market data in that intro as there are letters in your last name, christina. >> 13 letters in my last name chips overall, moving in tandem with greater tech. some specific narratives are still in play. nvidia, after closing the

acquisition of israeli start up, run a.i. it's really complicated. this deal was announced back in april, but there was so much push back from regulators. today is definitely seen as a win. on the flip side, let's talk about on semi. it's one of the worst performing chip names. about $21 away from its 52 week high. down about 3%. the slow down in ev sales dis propartialy impacts it. you also have super microcomputer, only up about 10% so far on the year. earlier in the year it was up. then you have broadcom, dubbed the next nvidia. managers say it will gain 65% in the first fiscal quarter, that is pushing its market cap over a trillion dollars. i know, i know on air we talk about it.

there's been so much chatter about the a.i. trade unwinding because large language models may be hitting limits and smaller models are getting better. but if you lump in all of the a.i. winners, their average return on the year is still 107% which is far out-pacing the broader chip index as seen. you can see on your screen, the soxx is up 8%. >> 100% to me is almost like you've doubled your money. >> precisely. another way to put it. >> i will say the year has been tremendous. thank you so much. >> thanks, brian. >> you're very welcome. coming up your next guest says if president-elect trump achieves just half, half his goals, stocks are going to rally. so why then is he looking

outside the united states for one big opportunity? it's a great question. and we have answers coming up. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

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lower across the board, but we'll find some bright spot. they're well off their session lows. your next guest says where the market goes next year, because that's really what we care about, will largely be driven by politics. and he's looking at a rather motley way to play it. when he says something like that, he mean it is. let's bring in morris schlossberg. he's the managing director of bk asset management. obviously, a cnbc contributor. argentina had a massive year. javier, everyone loves him. you're still bullish on argentina. why? and how do we play it if people believe you? >> javier is running a real- life experiment in capitalism. i think showing all the other leaders across the board exactly what needs to be done and he's just starting out. yes, it looks like some easy money may have been made, but i

think he's just starting out. argentina, he's going to unleash a tremendous amount of energy there. they sit on a ton of natural gas and he's going to tap those. for all of those reasons, it's a good time to start out. etf was up 65% this year. i think it may have potential, it's 83 now, could go potentially to 100 if things go more his way. >> i like the idea. i do predictions, i was fairly bullish on brazil this year. it was garbage. it's the worst prediction i've ever had. experiments can go in multiple directions. they can go horribly right or horribly wrong, boris. what's the down side risk on the javier experiment? i don't think it's a policy risk. i think it's that he's doing so well that the argentinian peso is really strong.

if you like at brazil, it's run by a communist. it's a perfect example of how bad communist policy is versus capitalist policy. larger than israel is during a time of war. that's how pathetic brazil is doing. that could be a problem for them as far as trade. i think that's the one risk people are looking at. otherwise, i think his policies are tremendous, and he's really teaching a lesson to the rest of the world. >> ten second pitch on deckers. >> lines out the door for uggs, during post christmas sales. my wife, who is a retail analyst was looking at all the shops and uggs was killing it. i think uggs and hoka just absolutely killing it. >> that was the reference, the hoaka, the big dads. thank you very much. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" begins on the other side of this quick break.

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