see going forward in the future. that exponential efficiency. >> ray, thank you for joining us, and for being our last guest on "squawk box" for 2024. >> happy new year. >> happy new year. >> you scared me off tomorrow. make sure you join us on thursday. we wish you a happy new year, and we'll see you again for a great 2025. >> we can only hope. >> we hope. it's time for "squawk on the street" right now. good tuesday morning, and welcome to the final "squawk on the street" for the year of 2024. we're posted at the new york stock exchange. carl and jim, they're missing this big day. they have the morning off. let's take a look at futures this morning as we get ready for the final training day. sec reversing things a bit from yesterday where at this time we were looking down sharply on the

futures, not the case at this point in the morning. our road map does begin with this final day of trading for 2024. it has been a record breaking year, but the bulls has been stumbling to the finish line. december right now set to be a losing month. plus billacman expecting the trump administration to remove fannie mae and freddie mac from conservativeship. let's start with the markets, of course, as we wrap up the year. would be the best set for best two years in a row in i guess the late '90s. >> we've all been asking that question can you make it. >> the late '90s was the only time it happened when you had

back to back-to-back gains and repeated. the big take away this market kind of owes you nothing in terms of historic returns. 25% total returns for the urrent year. you might have been facetious, but this is the most exciting day of the year. one year charts are the same. it's kind of this beautiful synchrony. >> it's a special day for you, isn't it, mike? >> i'll be feasting on it all day. >> and long into the evening. >> exactly. it'll be dark out here. three years is the one time period trailing where the s&p looks like it's got more muted returns. it's 1.9% total return annualized. not bad. we had a bear market in between. just because the market has been overachieving in that way doesn't in itself mean, hey, game over. and a lot of people have said this, you have to kind of moderate your expectations in

terms of what valuation expansion can get you from here. >> it's funny when i listen to you and reference the late '90s. of course you and i were both reporters through that, and i remember similar conversations at the time, valuations then far higher in many ways. obviously we were dealing with a seminal transition into technology, but we are now as well potentially. >> without a doubt. and there's no ceiling that's like a literal ceiling on it, but what you do on it is you are at some point eating forward returns in the near-term. even if you talk about, hey, 98 things look like they're out of hand, that's absolutely true. look at the returns. you had a pay back at some point. it just didn't really benefit anybody to start betting hard against the market in that moment. >> there were also a lot more stocks at that point in time, a

lot more ipos at that point in time. we still have yet to see a real native a.i. go to market in that time. and how that kind of plays into -- well, it certainly plays into it retail investor interest, the nma cycle, the fly by effect there, but as that kind of next lever alpha generation for 2025 is going to be an important component as well especially we think about the way this technology has propelled the stock market forward the last two years -- >> there's no doubt. although back in the '90s we had such low quality ipos along with some of the most important company we're still talking about today be it alphabet or amazon. >> literally hundreds of them in 1999. >> by the end -- by 2000 i remember i had a 7-page thing with every name that they were all zeros basically. >> one consequence of that,

leslie, the lack of brand new exciting names to latch unto, is you have this constant pile on of the same consensus. the palantir move and people grabbed onto broad comm. and these are more mature companies obviously, and then you have the stuff kind of lying around. we talked about the quantum names, which are kind of this silly section of the markets, pure speck, and it's really a name and a ticker and a shell, and we can just trade it, trade it, trade it. or you can do the leverage single stock microstrategy etf. >> as opposed to the ipos of companies. >> and a name and a story. >> leslie, what's also been interesting about this particular time is xai, elon musk's a.i. entrance $6 billion they raised at a $50 billion

valuation. reported on that a number of weeks ago. if that was in the market, that would have been a huge story for us that day if not quite some time leading up to it. data briks raised $10 billion recently. these names when they make their move to be a for profit company, maybe they go public one day down the road, i don't know. but these are big names, and they're not coming to public markets anytime soon. >> no, all the upside is being generated in the private market, which is largely reserved for a certain type of investor. institutional investor, sometimes pension funds, endowments, and the like. next year something to watch will be the potential changes that will take place in washington. i know there are a lot of lobbyists that are wanting this, of who an accredited investor is, and that could democratize who has access to the markets and also there's this huge push

in the alternative space to widen and broaden the scope of their retail investors as well. so a lot of interesting themes as we head into the new year, but of course the s&p and nasdaq coming off three-day losing streaks and s&p on pace for its worst month since april. our next guest says to and the chief market strategist joins us with more on his outlook for stocks. matt, thank you very much for joining us. so volatility, we saw basically two spikes this year, one in august and one in mid-december in terms of volatility. if we do get higher volatility in 2025, how should investors be preparing for that now? is that something they should be opting for some kind of volatility hedge, diversification, buying on the dips when they see volatility? what are some of the play books that you would advise? >> good morning, leslie. great to join you on the last day of 2024. i think when we're having a higher volatility market, we're

already seeing that play out the last couple of weeks as we head into the beginning of this year, but the fundales are still volud. i'm looking for strong earnings growth going to continue to broaden out across sectors, and so i think we will have a strong fundamental basis for the market and the economies as a whole. i would be looking to use any sort of meaningful pull back in the market as a buying opportunity. i tell all of our clients have those meaningful pullbacks particularly the one we had over the summer. you should be using them opportunistically to lean into the portfolios. there's an opportunity to take some profit on the winners and make sure you have a portfolio that can weather some of that volatility and also some cash you can continue to deploy throughout the year. >> despite the earnings growth that's expected next year, the market is still trading around 22 times those projected earnings above the ten. year average of 18.5 times, so what does that tell you about

how much more upicide or expected returns investors can hope for from here? >> you know, leslie, i don't have much of a concern about where evaluations are. i get asked by clients all the time about whether or not this market is too expensive and for a long time i've said it's not. the market and economy itself have marketedly changed over that time period. the market has become growth year part due to many caps and part due to secular growth shifts that we're having. as a result, as the market has become growthier we should be willing to pay higher premiums for it. a lot of companies expensive have been delivering earnings. i'd much better pay for that growth with companies delivering solid cash flow and eps increases, and that's where you want to look. i think that's where small caps are going. small caps aren't always quality companies. we're going to be seeing, i

think, an inflection with respect to earnings heading into next year. and they are trading cheap, and i think they can support higher multiples, so there's definitely plenty of opportunities even if you're concerned about valuation. >> you know, matt, one of the elements of this rotation or this hoped for rotation into smaller stocks or into the broader list of stocks or cyclicals over the course of this year has been a bit of confusion about where we are in the cycle and what the character of this economic cycle is. one year ago i think the economiest, i think there was a 40% chance of recession. there was a high level of concern about whether the expansion could continue. obviously we climb that wall of worry, the soft landing seems like it basically has manifested right now. we don't have a similar level of concern right now, and yet we also don't have those early cycle dynamics where you might expect things like cyclicals and riskier and lower quality stocks to perform, so how do you navigate all of that?

>> it's such a great point, mike, i think it's confused so many of ininvestors and many of our clients alike, you've basically thrown that book of economics right out the window. i think you've never had such a high interest rate persist for such a long time and exiting a monetary regime with high fiscal spending, so i think you can't expect a lot of those long-term economic theories to work out in the short-term. long story short, i think we're going to divert back to that. i don't think we're there yet. we're still working through, and i think that's going to support the economy moving forward. we're moving into an environment where the market and investors are hoping for a better regulatory regime moving forward, which i think benefits financials and benefits smaller companies, so i wouldn't focus so much on what the market should be doing relative to what economic theory tells us. i'd be looking at he fundamentals, talking to management teams and listening

to what they're saying about the state of consumers and growth going forward. when i put all that together, i get an optimistic picture. nothing right now is telling me about this whole mosaic that when we see downside something more pernicious is lurking in the background. >> all right. matt, thank you very much and happy new year to you. >> you too. thank you. well, still to come bill acumen expecting the trump administration to remove fannie and freddie from kauvtership, that will send those stocks up. we'll discuss that and his plan. let's get a look at futures. less than 18 minutes from now from the final trangdi session of the year. a lot more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. ...or know what i like to eat, which is not that. what's up, my brother?

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fannie mae and freddie mack from conservatorship. that would mean they became private companies again, and that post did send shares of both stocks up. kind of nice to markup your book at the end of the year, isn't it, mr. ackman in putting out that post on a very low volume day. that said, it's not without specifics certainly, and possibility. in fact, our viewers may recall any number of times leading up to the election i had mentioned that one of the key trades for those who believed president-elect trump would win was buying the preferreds of freddie and fannie, and we can go back to it there. there he's talking about an ipo in 2026, what they could raise, how they would meet the capital standard. and, listen, they got close in the last trump administration. treasury secretary mnuchin and others at the ffha had

planned -- they were moving towards that. they didn't quite get there. and, you know, i've mentioned a number of times when john paulson was considered for treasury perhaps his $4 billion face ownership of the junior preferreds there, that's been a big trade for paulson. it's been a big trade for ackman as well, and it's paid off. you can see what's happened just since the election as a result of the expectation perhaps that in the second trump administration you are going to see another effort made. but when it comes to the specifics of it, that's where you can sort of differ a bit with what acumen is saying in terms of his plan, because he believes that the government will be willing to after everything it's received -- remember there was this third amendment that allowed for basically the sweep of all profits to the government, and it's been an enormous amount of money, hundreds of billions. but he said that would satisfy the $190 billion that the government put up for the senior preferred they were getting 10% on, but that's not clear. the government might say, hey,

because the third amendment -- by the way, the supreme court agreed with it. that went to the supreme court. they said, no, it's fine, it's legal. they may say you still owe us $190 billion. so you could see a common offering but a lot more of that common going to the government to satisfy their continued claim. under acumen's plan he said they're satisfied already, and in fact there's a surplus as well. that could be the way they approach, we just don't know. >> so there was a cbo report from just a few weeks ago that said the overall operations of fannie mae and freddie mac have improved, and they said that the two have enough funds, they're able to raise enough funds to allow both of the gses, the government sponsored entities, to repay the $190 billion for its outstanding shares. we'll see if that's true or not. to your point about ackman

tweeting this at the end of the year, year to date returns 10.5%. >> for pershing square. >> this helps. you're right, i know a number of portfolio managers got a great deal of performance out of this trade. it was seen as a key one going in if you thought trump was going to win. again, to your point how they treat that $190 billion is a key. if, in fact, you do get this ipo how much common goes to the government, how much dilution. >> the key was also whether it satisfies the claims that the government back stop is on a forward going basis whether these companies will require -- >> achieve their earnings. >> -- an explicit back stop from the government or that much more capital. >> right. >> that's the piece of it that has never been resolved. >> no. >> and it'll take years, by the way, to ipo this thing. >> he's saying 2026, which would seem to be pretty quick. maybe they can just take up the plan they had underway already.

it's going to be scottbescent's issue potentially incoming treasury secretary as well, and we'll be following it closely. speaking of treasuries, the u.s. treasury saying it was breached by chinese hackers in a major cyber incident. we're going to have details after the break. let's give you one more look at thegres as we get ready to bin e final day of trading here at the new york stock exchange for the year 2024. looking for an up open. ♪ ♪ whether your phone's broken or old, we've got you. with verizon, anyone can trade in any phone, any condition. it's your last chance to get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence, on us. and, ipad and apple watch series 10. all three on us. that's up to $2,000 in value. only on verizon.

welcome back. u.s. treasury officials saying chinese hackers broke into the state department system earlier this month in what they're describing as a major incident. emly? >> yeah, the u.s. treasury said that a state sponsored chinese hacking operation was to access the desktop computers of treasury employees through a third party software, according to a letter seen by cnbc. that letter goes onto say that the hackers were able to access certain unclassified documents that were on those computers. now, the software company, beyond trust, said in a statement that the case involved a remote support product and said no other products were impacted. in a statement beyond trust said they notified the limited number of customers who were involved,

and it has been working to support those customers since then. they also say in a statement that no other beyondtrust products were involved. law enforcement was notified, and beyondtrust has been supporting the investigative efforts. beyondtrust also said they disclosed the incident on their website when it happened in early december, and since then they have provided upidates as they've looked into what happened. a treasury spokesman said in a statement that treasury takes very seriously all threats against our systems and the data it holds and says over the last four years the treasury has significantly bolstered its cyber defense, and we will continue to work with both private and public sector partners to protect our financial systems from threat actors. guys, of course, this is not the first time that we have seen state actors hack into u.s. systems or target government employees, and i think that at this point we're still waiting for additional information on what, if any, type of information or type of data they might have gotten from this

potential hack. and of course, larger question, i think as to the future of cyber security here in the u.s. guys? >> yeah, emily, yeah, the chinese are unrelenting when it comes to cyber espionage whether it be the treasury, the salt typhoon hack, which we continue to learn about into telecommunications networks and listening in on telephone calls. amazing stuff and will obviously be a key consideration for the incoming trump administration as well. emily, thank you. emily wilkins. opening bell just a few minutes away here. don't forget you can catch us any time and anywhere by listening to and following t squawk on the street opening bell podcast.

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we're keeping an eye on energy prices, of course. you can see nat gas is pulling back, this was after a huge surge yesterday. had been been up as high as 20%. of course there were forecasts that say in a couple of weeks things are going to get very

cold in the north east part of the country, for example. also the ability of russia to continue to ship gas to certain parts of ukraine, believe it or not, which i didn't know that was still something that's been going on for three years. >> some sort of leftover deal. >> yeah arb leftover deal that may ultimately come to an end, and then perhaps that means russian gas won't find a home in some way, and more pressure on the u.s. to produce and therefore and export. but a pull back today. >> definitely a pull back. it's a dramatic move from the early 2024 lows, but i think it's fascinating, if you look at long-term trends, these are not challenging levels in terms of expense under $4 for natural gas. i mean you were above it 5 plus 25 years ago, you know what i mean? so domestic production story remains very friendly. this is on the one hand beneficial for gas level energy stocks, they benefitted yesterday. on the other hand, it's not

really inflationary -- [ inaudible ]. >> they are getting ready for the big ball drop in times square. >> the confetti before the confetti. >> yes, the confetti before the confetti, of course, as we begin our final trading day. a lot of cheers here. mike, not sure where you want to start this morning in terms of coming off obviously a down day yesterday, but we did make progress as the session continued off the lows. >> somewhat interesting dynamics yesterday. you were down about 1.6% at the s&p at the lows in the morning,

kind of clawed back. and down 1% or more two straight trading sessions. pretty rare in the final stretch of the year. the theme in the last couple of weeks really since the fed meeting on december 18th has been more stocks down than up, a very tough time for the market to gather up any upside momentum. yields even though they pulled back yesterday, ten-year treasury yield still 4.5%. that was the level surpassed the day after that fed meeting, so i don't think the fed outright slammed on the breaks for the rally, the bull market, brought the expansion into threat. but i think the investor base has a bit of misgivings whether this rhetorical turn toward the hawkish side, fewer cuts next year maybe just raises the chance of some kind of policy mistake. i don't think the markets are trading outright as if, uh-oh, we're in trouble, but they're essentially saying we have a shorter leash, the fed is going to be a bit more vigilant. and if you think the weakening and softening up of employment conditions is something to be

concerned about, if these late cycle anxieties are going to be become more evident, then the fed might seen to be a little bit, you know, hurting that situation and keeping rates a little too high. again, that's all surmise about how the market's been behaving. we've spent ten of the trading sessions since the election or just looking today inside the gap up in the s&p that happened a day after the election, right? so you had this big pop once the election result was clear on november 6th. so that big move on the chart, you've kind of been spending a lot of time in there figuring out if that's okay. it's like 58, 50 on the down side would be the threshold that said, okay, we're going below that range. we haven't done that. more new lows than highs going into next year. maybe that's a decent setup maybe if you get more of a bid in treasury. again, it's a really strong year. you don't want to make too much out of this softness, but i think some people are on alert

whether in fact equity exposures were already high. if we weren't going to be ramping the year end, more likely to be lightening the year end. >> record excitement around stocks. 57 record highs for the year in the s&p 500. and it sounds like at this point you have this kind of tug-of-war between momentum and excite want of this seat change in potential regulation and potential policy shifts in 2025 versus the reality check of what those policy changes might actually mean for companies, what it might mean for the economy, and the markets are trying to figure it out. >> there was a period especially right in the immediate blush right after the election where you could just decide your preferred policy priorities and when they were going to get done, and what it was going to mean for the economy and earnings and deregulation. now as we get closer it seems a bit more cloudy in terms of the

order of things. the budget fight didn't clarify this idea there's going to be some efficient policymaking machinery in washington. to the extent you were hinging on that, i guess that's become a little bit less favorable. but, again, i think directionally everyone seems okay. economy still well clear of true recessionary levels. earnings for the majority of stocks headed higher. rates are up but not necessarily at punishing levels. all that stuff means the markets should remain relatively well-supported. but, again, the starting point is pretty elevated here. >> it's always interesting when you look back at the year the things you expected and hadn't. if i told you a year ago that electricity providers were going to be one of the best places to be and that constellation energy shares were going to do a lot better than constellation brands. >> remarkable. >> you might have wondered what i was talking about, but that's been the case. we knew a.i. coming into the year, but perhaps we hadn't yet

focused as much on the power deficit that may come into play, the need for it, and therefore the performance of stocks like that, up 93% because they own -- they're the largest owner of nuclear in the country, and that is their recommissioning going on, special report of new plants. if only we could make them as quickly as china seechlsms to b able. but nonetheless seen as giving this potential deficit if we don't produce a lot more power in the country. on the other hand, constellation brands terrible. they're not drinking. >> i don't know what they're doing. >> i think they're getting high, but i don't think they're drinking very much. >> it is amazing. and that's also in the context of just sort of consumer-branded goods just not being a strong part of this market. if anything that's a bullish thing meaning they're truly defensive stuff. food and beverage, you know, the kind of paper products, all that stuff has really not done

anything hooch to the extent the consumer staple has worked at all this year is because of costco and wal-mart. >> wal-mart up 72% for the year. >> cosco and wal-mart are in the top eight because that's just the way the math works. within a sector if you show that much momentum, you're going to get in there. >> i also kind of speak for the psychology you mentioned earlier on in the show, which is those names that do tend to work in a specific sector kind of just get all the attention, get all the flows, and then continue working from there. >> yeah. it was the case without a doubt before the election or maybe let's say in banks where jp morgan just consuming all the options in the group. now there's been a little more catch-up, more diversity in the group. that's been very much a feature of this market it's been a winner take most attitude across

a lot of different sectors. >> buying like the top one or two in a specific market going from there. speaking of banks there's an interesting dynamic between the fdic and blackrock, and it's over this whole issue related to the concentration of ownership in banks particularly among those like blackrock and vanguard that own passive stakes. but the fdic has put forth some new rules, which would be a little bit more patrolling over those who have passive stakes in banks to make sure that they do keep them passive, and this is a bipartisan perspective that they want, essentially, to make sure that the concentration of ownership -- of investor ownership in banks doesn't get to the point where they are influential in things like maybe on the right it would be things like esg. on the left it would be also potentially esg and and so they

and forth with blackrock, and they now have this deadline of january 10th to potential give measures of oversight if they're going to own 10%. this largely applies to blackrock for smaller community and mid-sized banks. those are the ones they own about 39 banks where they have a more than 10% ownership. and blackrock's perspective is, look, if you put these onerous rules on us, you're going to make bank investing less attractive. we are not going to want to do it. but the government says, well, you need to comply with these rules so we can ensure you are truly passive since you and some of your peers hold all this concentration in the sector that is critical to the economy. kind of an interesting dynamic. >> yeah, for sure. it is interesting how the concept of passive has evolved in multiple directions.

the january factors is small cap up performance but more specifically laggards leading. i have the worst performance on a year to year basis ranked. walgreens, estee lauder. most of the worst top performers of the year are being scooped up there. you know, some of these even though calender years shouldn't matter that much in terms of how you treat a portfolio and how your returns get reaped, this stuff does tend to matter because of the tax year effects and the performance year effects. >> i was going to say that's the winning market performance you share with your clients, so you need to make sure it is looking the best it possibly can, as made evident by what we were talking about earlier with perching square. >> yeah, although i think freddie and fannie down a bit

actually. but you can try your best to do what you can to put up some performance numbers in terms of marking up the portfolio. >> people yesterday slamming he buy but on fannie weren't thinking fourth quarter 2026 ipo. it was much more somehow we're getting saved. >> january 20th. >> if you got in prior to the election, you were very happy regardless because of the possibility, certainly, that we've talked about many times with the privatization of the two gses. we'll see. certainly something we'll be focused on in 2025. let's also turn to technology in 2025 because we know we'll be focused on that. our next guest predicts the sector will be up 25% in the new year spurred by the a.i. revolution. some of his top picks are nvidia, microsoft, tesla, and pallenter. he's dan ives. welcome for the final time this year. sorry you're not here. i'm certain in saying you are

the most frequent guest on cnbc during the course of 2024. we greatly appreciate that, and even more so the fact you largely have been right, dan. you're going to be wrong one of these days, but it wasn't this year. why don't you think it's next year as you continue to be so bullish on so many different names in technology? >> thank you so much for that. it's been awesome to be on the whole year. it's been hand holding investors through this a.i. evolution, and i think we're looking -- you were, this is still only the second inning of a nine-inning game. and all the things we see in our spending is about the multiplier. there's an 8 to 10 down multiplier across the rest, which is why i continue to believe tech stocks are going to be up to 25% into next year, and it's only 10:00 p.m. in this a.i. party that goes to 4:00

a.m. >> right, you've been saying that for some time. i think you may have moved us an hour later, i'm not sure. dan, there is this question as to are investors going to start to demand to see a real return from all the investment that's been made, the hundreds of billions, frankly, that will have been invested and will be invested in the coming year as well by the hyperscalers, for example. do you think that demand will be made, and will it be met? >> look, that's been the big question. i think we start to see that inflection point with palantir. that was the first use case we continue to see these things play out across enterprise. and salesforce that was the huge moment last quarter. i actually think software is going to be the key. we have use cases in enterprises we're talking to up 5x in terms of deploying a.i. and what

ultimately use cases even over the last six months. and i think that is going to be the key as this all plays out. look, $2 trillion of a.i. capx the next three years, fighting that is going to be tough. that's why i continue to say the bears can find a.i. in the spread sheets. i get it, these companies have to execute. but execution has been there, now it's going to be about it rest of tech. those are the top ten plays that we see for a.i. in 2025. >> in terms of enterprise a.i. in particular, you think the two best software plays are palantir and salesforce, what are some examples of software companies that you are more doubtful of their a.i. potential? >> i think adobe you'd have to be a little more doubtful what they can do. there's still potential. i think when you look at ibms had a lot of success, but to me it's really who's the one proving it out?

it's pallentir, it's salesforce, i think oracle is having a huge renaissance of growth. you are going to see mna skyrocket across town. these big tech players are going to get stronger and they're going to get bigger, and i think that's going to be a huge theme playing out across 2025 as the strong get stronger. >> dan, just tell me why i shouldn't be concerned if i own palantir it trades at 50 times sales and in theiciders have been trading hundreds of millions of dollars worth of stocks. it just feels like a very promotional situation for an admittedly strongly positioned company that just seems like it's become a little bit of a cult. >> yeah, look, mike, i definitely -- bull wear to beat on palantir. but to me it's not about in the

next year in terms of what this thing is trading at. i view it as can pal antir be te next salesforce? in terms of what you're talking about you've got to focus on aip and use cases and can this be something that expands to ultimately 30, 40% of the revenue. i don't get too caught up in the noise. i focus on all our checks. the hate it as a teenager the stock, and i think this is a stock that has the potential to be three digits and higher. >> finally, dan, as i've said you've been right to be bullish in some so many other names you've been behind have had great years. microsoft has not.

it's trailed the s&p. it's only up less than 13% for the year. why are you positive on the stock going into 2025 ? >> look, i think that's one others have sort of drummed when you look at google and hyperscale. i think as these use cases and all of these cloud deployments start to come through the streets massively underestimate azure numbers, and i think ultimately what a.i. is going to do i believe this could be 10, 15% incremental revenue over the next 12, 18 months. i think microsoft is one of the most mispriced on large cap. it was google, but i think going into 2025 that's why it's a table pounder along with the godfather of a.i., nextgen and nvidia. and that will be on the table for microsoft. >> it's mispriced because people are underestimating the -- the opportunity that they still have even though copilot's been out

for a year and doesn't seem to be at least grabbing a lot of people in terms of enthusiastically responding to it? >> i think they are underestimating what this is going to do, their enterprise business as the use case is actually deployed. you're in microsoft in terms of a.i. use cases. and as that comes through, i see a year from now this has a 5 in front of it as a stock, and this will be a name that kind of proves it out along with the rest of the software. >> all right. well, the good news is i know you're going to be back really soon for me to ask you about it again. so, dan, thank you. >> happy new year. >> have a happy new year. enjoy. dan ives. before we head to break let's give you a look at the bond market. of course, a reminder, by the way, the bond market is going to close at # 2:00 p.m. today, so a bit earlier than usual.

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turning now to real estate where a former laggard is making a big comeback and could be the darling of 2025. diana oleg joins us with more on that. >> hi, mike. vacancies are low and rents are rising. in q3 investment volume in the sector was up 49% compared with q2 according to a new report from jll. that was driven by high raising hi value transactions. jll also said the recent fed interest rate cuts are anticipated to stimulate even more activity in the coming months, leading the subsectors open air shopping centers like this one where we are with the highest leasing rate of all

shopping center types at nearly 46%. their vacancy rate is on the lower end of 5.3% versus closed in malls at 8.7%. i spoke with the ceo of kite reality group, a neighborhood shopping center about why he's seeing this recent surge in business and value. >> it's both for practical reasons for shopping to get, you know, goods and services but also socializing. and i think after covid people put more value on that aspect of their life, so open air shopping centers have had a great resurgence. there's very little supply. that's also an important factor. people aren't really building these things that much. >> kite is concentrated in the sun belt where also happens to be where demand for open air shopping centers is strongest. now, this center here in maryland is owned by federal reality trust, another stock to watch in the coming year. back to you guys. >> diana, you mention that, you know, the anticipated decline in interest rates from the fed

might be kind of boosting some of this activity. i just wonder given that we're not really expecting that much in terms of further cuts, whether it feels as if the group might actually be a little bit restrained. >> reporter: well, it might be because, as you said, we're not going to see as many cuts as expected, but we did see two cuts already and did see a boost in the numbers we showed you. it's not just the fed cuing rates, it's the demand coming back, peel wanting it be outside shopping again. gen z is a big driver of this as they'll tell you in the sector, and the biggest issue is supply. there just isn't any. they're not building a lot of these types of centers, and so with supply so low and demand rising, that's why they're doing well. >> diana, thank you. diana oleck in maryland somewhere. we're going to take a quick break here as we keep an eye, of course, on the market as we end the year. a few hours from now you can see

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good tuesday morning. welcome to good tuesday mornin welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. i am david faber and we're live at the new york stock exchange. let's give you a quick look at the markets and the half hour into trading, you can see the s&p is up about a quarter of 1% and the 10 year around that 4.5% yields. >> not bad for the final trading date of the year and we are 30 minutes into that trading session. we are watching today -- more volatility with bitcoin proxy micro strategy, down more than 10% despite this morning's gains of about 1.8 percent currently. and shares of fannie mae and freddie mac were surging overnight, down a bit now.

they wrote a lengthy post about the names, saying he expects president-elect donald trump to remove fannie and freddie from conservatorship, potentially making them private companies. they said it should generate more than $300 billion in additional profits for the federal government and remove $1 trillion in liabilities from the government's balance sheets. keeping an eye on the tech come all the southern tesla, amazon, and microsoft, the biggest ligers, down 3% or more, although they did comprise 53% of the total return. >> almost all of it built up in mid july and since that point, they have been indifferent. some of it has done well in amazon has done well. in general, it was the first half of the year that was very concentrated. the second half, little less so. i mentioned earlier the last of the year, you have people trying to get ahead of this

reversal trade, ladders into leaders. you have a strong breath, even though --'s so, the reason leaders, the big rooms are taking a bit of a rest on a balance. it is a bit of, you know, gamesmanship and mechanics around the end of the year. >> mike, as we end the ear -- year, i will be here. what mechanics do we want to be thinking about early in the year? the same kind of things in terms of the laggers outperforming? >> try it for sure. the fact we have had a lot of low surface selling a lot of stocks looking like they have taken their medicine for a little while might give you a decent point for the new year. i do think we have in contending with elevated expectations. you mentioned the sentiment indicators. that is moderating. sentiments are a bit more -- i

would not say troubled, but a bit less overexcited. however, strategist for the year ahead, the median target for the s&p 600, 11% up the lowest target is more relevant. that is upbeat percent. that is a big difference from last year when it actually -- they did not see any upside. >> should we do the opposite? >> look, the stock market goes up two thirds it is tough to necessarily say that is an out right contrarian fall, but the market might be harder to please in the coming year because everyone is already sort of position to psychologically and financially for a good thing. >> we were talking about the ketchup trades, whether it was value stops. russell underperformed. >> everything sort of pales in comparison to the market cap index. they are up 10% and the s&p value was up 10%. you would have taken it if

someone said get the smallest stocks and the cheapest oxen you will have 10%. you might have been okay but you did not think the s&p would give you 25. fewer than 30% of all s&p stocks that outperform the index. really tough. >> there were some brief moves around when rates for started to come down, which had people offside. >> as soon as you head up clearview you're getting a rate cut, they started to rip. it has been tough. it has been a -- it has been a weird point in the cycle, not really where we started. >> it has not been the greatest year. it is about flat for bonds. we go back to 2022, which was -- it is not that it was about your equity-wise, but a horrible year for bonds as well. you got crushed everywhere. a different matter this year. >> the 60-40 portfolio did climb to a new high. we are looking a year and a half after the stock market low. so, yeah, it was rough, but they did their job. they held their value on the

way. the s&p 500 on pace for their worst month since april. closing out a great year as we have been saying with 57 record closes and the index has their best to your performance in a quarter century. our next guest, weber financials -- a managing partner joins us now. chuck, to those favorites, big financials and energy, they imply you are looking to sort of look for contrarian plays or value orientation. what is behind that? >> it is kind of both. happy new year to you, mike. we agree with the statement you made earlier, that only about 20% of the s&p actually outperformed. that means roughly 80% matched or underperformed. so, that is where the real value is. the economy is doing well. earnings are rising and rising at a pretty good clip.

if companies have really not participated, that is where you can find value. >> would you consider the big banks not to have fully participated? they actually have been on a pretty good relative performance run and it feels as if the bull case in terms of relief and a pretty decent economy is pretty well acknowledged. >> that is right, but keep in mind they got decimated last year by the silicon valley fallout. all the banks got slaughtered. they have come back very nicely in the last several months. we are nowhere near those lows. but they still represent outstanding value. they are all trading at relatively moderate or in some cases modest prices and price to earnings and they do have quick prospects with the economy doing well and then on top of that, you have the additional thoughts that the government will be more likely to allow -- more ipos, more

capital markets activities that will help the big banks in particular, and then the regulatory environment will be more favorable there are a lot of reasons to think the banks should do well. >> from a macro standpoint, you think immigration and tariffs will be the most important aspects for early 2025. how are you handicapping those to policies and potential impacting to jump-start inflation? >> yeah, those are critical issues in my mind, leslie. so, there is no doubt that trumps promises may not at all happen, but certainly he is going to push on a number of fronts. for sure, i would bet that the the border or the wall is close much more effectively. that means the flow of illegal immigrants into the u.s. is going to be greatly reduced him and they were critical to the growth of the economy. people do not really appreciate that. we would not have had it possible for it to grow as rapidly as it did over the last couple of years if those people

had not come in and then available to work. so, firms will not be able to hire at the pace that they did in the last couple of years. that inherently means slower economic growth, but it also means more labor scarcity, so we will see more pressure on labor costs, which means more pressure on inflation. and then you throw into that mix the question about tariffs. so, again, trouble may be posturing. it is not likely he is going to implement all of what he threatened. some of that might be just to get great bargaining chips, but i would certainly bet that that tariffs to go up to some degree. you just do not know how much and if tariffs go up, that means prices go up and inflation goes up. >> coming back to the value, you are focusing on it. it can be somewhat easy to find stocks that are undervalued or

represent value, but it does not mean they will go up. it is another year where growth is outperforming value. what gives you the confidence that at some point you will want to own value at the end of the year because it actually did better? >> one of the nice things about owning some value stocks is they provide pretty good yields. you are paid to wait. i do not need these companies to go up next week or next month or the first quarter. i have a longer-term perspective. investors, not traders. we are looking for good value over the long term. if we are in good companies and the companies are doing well, sooner or later, the stocks will follow suit. >> chuck, i appreciate you weighing in this morning. happy new year. we appreciate it. >> thank you. same to you. let's talk nvidia. we have not talked enough about them today. it is the third best performing stock despite underperforming the rest of -- in december, but even more so over the last six months. they have pointed out it is kind of flat. we have been tracking that action while we cover the

industry. >> i know you talked about nvidia. >> we have not talked about it enough. >> is that -- >> cramer is usually not here. >> for our audience, maybe get it -- get bored. it was all the rage in 2024 as the -- they saw nearly 40% and i say this as although stocks outpaced the broader u.s. market. that was not as impressive when the a.i. boomer first kicked off and everyone is scrambling to get a piece of the pie. outlook or the chp space does hinge on the success. now i can talk about nvidia. there one of the bellwethers. although shares have remained pretty flat over the last two months or so, nvidia shares are still skyrocketing over 180 kpers that. there is no doubt they will continue the reign. there is still debate. there is a new narrative for this year, revolving around the

time frame of the success. recent checks show weaker demand for the current gpu. that would be the hopper iteration as customers are waiting for the latest black well, the next iteration. maybe they're holding off on their purchases to wait for the next there has been back and forth headlines about possible delays for said black well and that additional china chip restrictions. investors are not phased by these concerns. a key catalyst will be where we hear from jensen and the cfo collect -- about the future of updates for black well. nvidia and several other a.i. winners like -- they have all fared well, bringing an average of over 100%, outpacing that basket of chip names we talked about, as well as the stocks. the rest of the sector has not fared as well as those exposed to auto and electronics. the pc refresh cycle. we heard from hp not long ago, saying it is a slow start.

it is not -- it is impacting memory maker micron. we know they are weaker. intel went down 60% on the year. one of the worst, i guess, 60% of the value lost in 2024, the biggest drop in 53 years as a public company. >> intel has more than their share of issues i'm assuming the it will be on your radar in 2025. what is going to happen in terms of leadership, not to mention in terms of the structure of the company itself. >> how will they split it up and who is the leader? >> will it be split up? would you see the bigger split that people are talking and speculating about in terms of manufacturing and design? >> i spoke with to an executive, and other chief executive, who said the problem with intel as they tried to do too much all at once. the argument is, well, you had -- he is really well versed and

had the drive and the ideas, but unfortunately, that did not pan out, especially when you saw the loss of capital going into the manufacturing side and the fact they fell behind so many other chipmakers,. they have a gpu that is not up to par with what is out in the market right now. >> you mentioned -- nvidia, for several quarters, was on the cycle of please just tell us that the next thing is huge and it will happen and we can kind of put it on the horizon. what are we waiting for specifically, if anything, to hear incrementally? >> it would be blackwell. >> the one we want the timing for? >> that is what is driving the stock. i know you have talked about it with a sick and the custom h chips that will take away this market or change nvidia's reign. in turn, it is about what the next iteration will be. will there be any commentary

about others? it is fueling the fire. the next best thing is coming. do not worry because we are doing one new chip a year. it makes it difficult for others to keep up when nvidia is so far ahead. >> it is already shipping? >> yes, but the ramp-up is not expected until the first quarter, the end of the first quarter. >> okay, thank you, christina. >> happy to hear it for >> let's give you a roadmap for the rest of the hour. high expectations for a different mag 7. the risks for apple in 2025. >> plus a record-breaking year for commodities, just not the ones you might expect. we will explain and talk outlook for 2025. stocks ending a stronger with some volatility. we have topics from restaurants to retail. a big show ahead. squawk on the street is coming back. do not go away.

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it's an idea that's quite attractive. or... another word... -fashionable? i was gonna say- "popular! you're gonna be pop-uuuu-larrr!" can you do defying gravity?! yeah, get my harness. buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with xfinity mobile. and see “wicked,” in theaters now. a tough year in 2024 with uncertain stocks with restaurant related companies and fast food related companies and bankruptcy filings were up over 50% year-over-year. there were major shakeups. think starbucks and in-store traffic declines as well. mcdonald suffering a bit from that. our nets guest does the some green juice and has topped takes for the year. david palmer, we were talking

off-camera. i do not know if your topics incorporate more of kava or drives it. tell us. >> you nailed it, talking about the fast casual segment. you are seeing those chains that are exposing the upper to middle income consumer base protein at a price. certain casual dining's -- company operated restaurants that are u.s.-centric, although circles really captured some of the winners in 24. texas roadhouse, falls lake, those are some of the best informers. chili's was an outstanding performer. the fast casual and the casual dining share gainers, particularly those that were giving you better food value, those were the ones that are killing it to some degree. those still have some of the best outlooks and situations into 25. texas roadhouse and chipotle are still average in terms of

their evaluation levels . they will be fine. one and that is below average, that u.s. company operated within that zone of casual dining that we are seeing is beginning to work, darden restaurants. that is a name we think will continue to work perhaps more powerfully than the others because of the valuation set up. olive garden is the key turn around. they will be doing some stuff with a digital and delivery, which would really help them as they go into their fiscal '26. darden restaurants, among that cohort, i think is the name to look at. >> david, where do you stand with the in progress, i guess, turnaround of starbucks under new leadership and how investors are now viewing the opportunity? >> starbucks is something to watch. they have been a mess of a

company. they have had some issues with their quark and tumor on two fronts. first, they have their issue with the gaza incident and also the union. in addition to that, they, their previous core, that a worker espresso user has had issues with their service levels. basically, those two fronts, they need to really cure the brand. they are working on it. this will be the key name to watch in terms of brand turnaround in '25. it is a u.s. centric company and it in -- if they turn around, that name will be a very powerful name. we believe in brian and the team. and made some steps in the right direction. there has been some stabilization. they're not out of the woods yet. we would love to see this union issue go away. we think they will solve that.

the innovation pipeline, the operational cures, these will all be part of that. it will not be a straight line, but we recommend that one for '25 as well. >> requiring some patience. in terms of the fundamental of the industry, given what you're seeing with traffic, do you expect to see more consolidation in the new year in this industry? >> it is going to be interesting to watch. we saw a lot of those mid-cap names get big in the past because they were consolidators within the space. we are seeing a bit of that cooling and the consolidation. a lot of the reason for that has been the industry has been kind of lousy, like you pointed out. traffic has been lackluster. the share losers are doing poorly. there has been negative earnings revisions both within the casual dining share losers to the negative, but also in fast food, to see emanate heat

up, we will have to see a better environment. people, they will have to get going. that is very, very possible. by the time we get to the may, june period, we will be -- all that collation pushback was hurting the likes of mcdonald, which is a likely turnaround story within '25 as well. that could really help that emanate picture heat up again and the consolidators as well. the likes of restaurant brands, which is at near lows with valuation long-term. names like that, that would be the buyers that need to get some momentum as well. >> david, always appreciated. happy new year to you. >> thank you. >> it is the last trading day of 24. let's look at the biggest gainers in the s&p this year, palantir of nearly 350% on the year in video app.

-- as we go to break, check out this mystery chart. an under performer, but over 86% of analysts call this one a buy. we are back in three. try one. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help

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welcome back. the mystery chart before the break, wynn resorts, one of many stocks underperforming on the year. we have the break down and outlook for 2025. >> investors this year prefer to gamble on big tech rather than -- it has the most profitable casino resort in the world in singapore and yet their shares are up only about 5%. they have not reached visitors pending or gaming in macau. you can see that in the wins and charts and mgm shares them all reflect 35%. mgm has tough -- plus, higher labor costs. their shares are down 23% this

year. caesars is down 30%. it is a big competitor on the strip pen entertainment under pressure to show some go with espn. their stock is down 28% less talk about the standouts. fanduel parent listed on the stock exchange in january. it is the leader in sports betting and i gaming and their shares are up 44% this year. draftkings by comparison up a little more than 5%. in regional gaming, boyd is up 13% ahead of their peers, but lagging in broader indices and the sphere is on fire in las vegas. their shares are updating kpers that. finally, up an eye-popping 203% for the online gaming company rice street showed strong profit growth, especially in notable opportunities in latin america. it is only a third of a percent today, but ending the year on a strong note. every time i see the ceo, he is like when will you give me some

attention on the end is. well, rich, here it is. russia street interactive. >> you got that one done. let's talk about a win. i have been talking about 9.9%. it was a 13 g and he will become ambassador to italy. he is not going to take it is my understanding. you will not get active, but there might be others. what is the frustration with what is happening? >> i for one, there is this constant pressure to want to see a return. they want the shares to reflect their money. they think there is expectation that the company could be doing more here in the united states with the more focus on u.s. operations and trying to break their dependency on macau and china. the last time i sat down with the ceo, all they wanted o talk about was this new opportunity in the united arab emirates. that resort casino will be the first in the region to open in 2027. i do not think -- i think that

he and some investors have sums up to schism about when they will see a return on that particular invest in and they want to see more attention paid to the u.s. opportunities. >> interesting. edessa, thank you for the round up. as we go to a break, check out the biggest laggers on the s&p 500 so far this year with a few hours left. walgreens, intel, moderna, celanese, estee lauder, all of more than 40% on the year. more on the movers to watch after a break. you can now catch glock on the street anytime, anywhere. listen to and follow the podcast and spotify, apple music, and other platforms. we are back in a moment.

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welcome back. we have your cnbc news update. the team of investigators including representatives from boeing, were on the side of a deadly plane crash that killed 179 people in south korea. the plane was seen as having engine trouble and preliminary reports say the pilot received a bird strike morning and issued a distress signal before the tragic landing. south korea's transport ministry launched safety inspections on all the 101 boeing 737 800s in the country in response. military appeals court ruled against event secretary lloyd austin's effort to toss plea deals reached to three defendants charged for their involvement in the 9/11 terror attacks. the men agreed to plead guilty in exchange for being spared the death multi. austin had argued he should decide on any plea agreements. the defense lawyer said he did not have the legal authority. puerto rico is preparing to --

look at these companies that moved on a.i. themes. the power generation companies and utility company suddenly became megastars because everybody woke up and realized -- companies like you 10. suddenly, they became a.i. darlings.

these are healthy numbers -- 5%

-- it was down. we are down almost 20% for energy in 2024. i guess the key point here is we are looking for some earnings, deceleration in terms of technology stocks. still strong. earnings, acceleration, and the more value-oriented sectors. we would be remiss to point out the 20th anniversary of the gold gld. gold gld. it is up 26%.

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