hello everybody. welcome to power lunch alongside john ford. coming up the trading year is coming to an end and it comes not with a bang but just like a shrug and a meh. this is the year without a santa rally. we will take a look at what it could mean for markets in the months ahead. and president elect trump's

proposed tariffs expected to disrupt trade. we will speak to the premiere of albe rt a canada. and the week saw its share of challenges. ceo turnovers, companies dragged into politics. what challenges could come in the year ahead. let's start with the markets. the past week not letting up even with these declines we saw massive gains. palantir up 340%. nvidia up 170% and value spiking across the board. joining us is mark, also here with us is bill, chief market strategist at bell curve trading. doesn't a lot depend on whether the price to earnings multiples stay kind of rich in 2025?

i know you think it's a goodyear ahead. what influences whether those multiples stay strong? >> happy new year to you as well. two things. one, certainly earnings that are expected to grow at a midteams pace by most services and so, in order to achieve the kind of gains that i think a lot of strategists, including us, have largely penciled in is not going to be, as you said due to multiple expansion. most of the gains has been key to expansion, not just earnings doing the heavy lifting. that will be reversed this year. as a consequence of that and the other of course being the economy that remains relatively stout. right now we are seeing the atlanta federal reserve, gdp now tracker posting at 3.1%. that would be a extension of what we saw in q3. a lot of momentum into 2025 which is a good set up for

stock prices even if we didn't get further multiple expansion. >> conversely you think the stock rally is pretty much over. how should investors position themselves into 2025? >> i will take the other side of that all day long. we have been one of the most bul ish firms for the last year, year and a half. i talked about it on this network. s&p going to 6,000, nasdaq going to 22,000, dow to 45,000 and 47,000. that seemed like a pipe dream six months or a year ago. we are here and those are the targets off the critical march 2020 lows. the pandemic lows which is the key long term trend driving the markets. everybody comes on these shows and says i'm a long term investor. if you want to stop and interview ask what's the long term? is it three years, five years, 1929? the key driver here is really off the pandemic lows when we

have the historic massive fiscal stimulus and when you look across the major indexes it's basically tapped out here. you know wall street is looking for the economy to stay strong, great. that's in the market. fed rate cuts in the market. trump administration be more probusiness, in the market. 90 to 95% of this is in the game now, in the market and there's a lot more that can go wrong or right. we are advising our clients which are some of the largest mutual fund complexes, pension funds in the world to pump the brakes and take your equity exposure down. >> are you put that into fixed income, real estate? where are you seeing opportunities in. >> we advise all sorts of money managers that have all sorts of prospectives. someone along a mutual fund complex. others have broader mandates.

they may sell calls -- you know sectors will not loose as much as some of the mor aggressive sectors. the point is that there is not much left here. you know i could see maybe the s&p getting pushed to 62, 6300. maybe nasdaq 122.5 but you are in the 8th or 9th inning here. the other side of this is take advantage of what's been a great run. you will put that money to work at much better levels later in the year. >> do you think that -- even if you think that the next year will go gang busters do you think there there be volatility and you have to be patient for 2025? >> certainly we have tempered our judgment relative to the

expectations in the coming year. we don't expect to see another what would be a repeat of 20 plus percent gains. along the way we expect far more volatility verses what we have seen other than the growth scare in august where we had about a 9% pull back in equity prices in relatively short order. consequence of the fact that we have a pulled forward a lot of news on certainly, you know, receiving inflation, fed rate cuts underway. certainly fiscal policy wherein vestors are focusing more on some of the pro growth aspects. deregulation and prospects for lower corporate income taxes rather than tariffs its and something geo politically or otherwise. those are all the reasons we would expect more air pockets so investors may be able to take advantage of opportunities that come in at lower prices.

i think the overall path is for higher. >> mark, in a way what you are both saying similar. there will be rough moments. just bill thinks the good news is priced in and you think that those down drafts will be buying opportunities. so, mark, what is going to be the defining moment or signal that bill is wrong and you are right and that these dips are not the way of the year but they are buying opportunities? >> i think that as we get into the first quarter and we get a little better around the policies under the trump administration we will be able to handicap a little better than where we are today. i think that it'll obviously news on the jobs front which is going to be key to the consumer which drives almost 70% of economic activity will be how well that remains stitched together which will give you an indication as to whether consumption can continue to

prime the economy and provide it the positive impulse it has. we will know if we are going to see something that perhaps precedes what i think would require a major down draft in equity prices which means something more bear like in terms of a down draft in nature would be prospects of a recession. something that would trigger an up ending of the economic momentum we have established right now given the strength in the labor market. >> i love a good disagreement. mark, bill, thank you. >> we could have one right now. >> let's do it. we can't. we cannot. > energy and metal had a positive year. it was the soft commodities that saw the serious gains. pippa stevens. >> we saw big gains for cocoa, coffee and orange juice. with no quick fix we could see even higher prices in 2025.

cocoa is pacing for its best year on record. coffee up about 70% around an all time high and orange juice is tracking for the best year since 2009. cocoa and coffee both require very specific growing conditions. unless there's a big improvement in cocoa supply we have a big issue and one that says the market is just now realizing. brazil is on the cusp of its 5th poor crop because of climate change and that's also impacting orange juice since brazil is the world's largest producer. companies have managed to surge through actions like smaller chocolate bars and trading down to robuster coffee but the issues can't be fixed by adding more supply meaning is going to have to be a demand side response. >> thank you for that. ahead on the show we will

do exactly that and keep looking ahead. shares of apple on pace to close out with a 30% gain. could a new administration and the expected trade tariffs disrupt apple's plans? and speaking of tariffs we will discuss the president elect's war of words with our neighbors to the north. power lunch back in two.

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welcome back to power lunch. the new year likely beginning with headaches for apple. they will have to deal with tariffs threats and global tension. >> let me give you a couple things here at the top of tim cooks agenda going into 2025. dodging those president elect tariffs as he did for apple in trump's first term. next, china. specifically getting apple intelligence off the ground there. let's start with tariffs. the most important one.

trump coming in to office promising temporaryives, up to 60% on goods from china. that would hit apple the hardest. most products apple including a majority of i-phones are made in china. how cook managed to dodge tariffs in the first term? we developed a cozy relationship with trump. his peers took more antagoonistic. cook showed trump a new line of mac computers. trump got to show people apple making things in the united states and then they got relief from tariffs on imports from chain a trump said cook came and ate with him a few weeks ago. no mention on what it means as far as tariffs go.

watch out for announcements about job creation or manufacturing. that could be what apple offers in terms of getting tariffs relief. next china. still a lot of competition but beyond that apple needs to get the government to improve apple intelligence to launch on i- phones in that country. i asked tim cook about this on this last earnings report off one of his recent trips to china. we know talks keep going on. and will partner with another company. >> it occurs to me that the tariffs threats aren't threatening china but the future of the trade with our neighbors to the north appears uncertain because the president elect has promised 25% tariffs

on products canada. several political leaders have responded with economic threats of their own. earlier this month on power lunch the premiere of ontario, doug ford said he would cut off energy exports to the united states if necessary. now to discuss her thoughts, danielle smith the leader of canada's united conservative party. it is great of you to join us today. first of all i note that when you talk about cutting off energy exports, alberta exports more than $127 billion, that would be 56% of all of the oil that the united states imports double that from mexico, saudi arabia, or iran if you were to combine all of that. when you look at that amount is that even realistic to cut off say alberta's energy e ports? >> i certainly don't think it is nor do i think it would make us a good neighbor.

i have a difference of opinion with my ontario counterpart. we know how important it is for american energy dom nance that we are able to be a partner in that. the americans have -- you have seen the increase of your production and exports to 13 million-barrels a day but america still uses 20 million- barrels a day. we are able to provide a lot which keeps the price of gas low. we have been told if a 25% tariffs comes in it would increase the price of gas with a dollar a gallon. trump wants to address inflation. we hope to be able to talk about how canada is a great friend and partner and we have a wonderful, quite balanced trade relationship compared to other nations in the world. we think that if we took a north american strong approach to get into a position of

collective dom nance i think that's a great partnership that could continue and i hope we can avoid it. >> you sent a message out in response to the truth post about the trade deficit with canada and pointed out the jobs and the way that the energy exports supports the gas and pointed out that grain and livestock which of course go into food costs which was one of the big factors we saw in the election as well as timber which has to do with building materials and as you know housing supply in the united states is rough and -- hard to come by and in response to hurricanes and wildfires those rebuilding materials drive up inflation. all of that -- it's a great argument. do you have any sense whether you are being heard from the incoming administration? >> i hope we are. that has been the relationship that canada has had with the united states for some time.

our economy is only a 10th the size of the american economy but we are the largest buyer of american products. mexico is second and we beat germany, italy, france, the uk and vietnam combined in the amount we buy and part is this partnership that we have a lot of products we produce, if it's livestock or grain or oil or gas or critical minerals. the americans use that and then we buy a lot of them back. that is one of probably the most successful trade partnerships in the world. i don't see that a trade war benefits american consumers, doesn't benefit can dane ones. we some critical minerals. you can get those from canada. you can get one of those probc,

another from ontaria and another from quebec. very important for defense and energy. you can get that. so we really feel like this is a partnership that we should continue to talk about the strengths and the positives where we both benefit and hopefully be able to avoid tariffs. >> so i'm curious. a couple years ago you had the alberta act and seems like you had argued -- trying to protect your province from federal over reach, right? protest your economy. at the same time, there seems to be this sweeping move in a lot of countries and economies to keep probeing treated unfairly and to make deal that benefit them. trump is trying to do something similar. how do you balance the desire for free trade with the desire to protect the interest of the economy over which you are presiding? >> i think that the thing to understand, our country is a

little different than the united states and the united states a lot of land and resources is owned by the federal government and private land owners. in our country the resources and the land are owned by the provinces. the alberta government is the owner of 85% of the oil and gas in our province. we have a trillion barrels of oil in place, 200 billion that's recoverable. we have over 200 trillion cubic feet of gas. we have space to be able to bury co2 to address emissions. it is in our interest to be able to assert our ownership and look for more ways to be able to get the product to the united states. we have had -- we have a number of pipeline that go in to the united states. we are able to expo rt 3.4 million-barrels a day. we would love to double that so the united states can export

that. >> okay. and so, do you see openings with the trump administration to do that even with in this environment of the president elect saying that canada is treating the united states unfairly? >> i think so. i mean i look back at our trade stats going back for the past 20 years. there was a decade between about 2010 and 2020 where canada had the deficit. the real big difference is commodity prices and when you look at -- if we are able to be a secure, safe supplier of commodities to the americans that just benefits american consumers and it benefits american businesses. especially when you look at china controlling 80% of the supply chain of some key minerals, all of which are available in canada. if we can make that argument that the trade surplus when it comes to the manufactured goods actually balanced. the difference is that we are able to provide the key source

of materials that go into making all of those great american products. that's why i -- i keep on making sure that message is coming through loud and clear. i don't think that either of our countries benefits a tariffs war. i think we are much stronger together and we want to be that partner. >> okay. premiere of alberta canada. thank you. >> thank you. january's arrival usually signals a fresh start. after the break our trader will give us his play bob for 2025. some offense, defense and of course special teams. market navigator is next.

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or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley welcome back. if you are watching any football over the next couple days here is something to keep in mind. the games could also offer a framework on how to manage your po rt folio. my next guest is here to tell us about navigating the market in 2025. n nfl. offense, eric in.

>> let's talk about offense in the investment thematic. that's through private markets. the funny thing is 90% of the economy is private companies and yet all of our investing comes from public investing. there's a huge opportunity of migrating some of the money through the private markets because apollo and others have made it easy for advisers to do that. so you are talking about some of the smartest investors in the world. strong returns this year, and you are getting it at a discount. kkr is 9% off the highs. that will help the revenue just love the businesses. they are super smart and you are getting in a discount. >> sometimes defense wins championships. >> absolutely. absolutely. doesn't seem like a lot of defense these days in the nfl. we like -- we like wal-mart here. you know wal-mart has been a

strong candidate even on the offense side for 2024 and part of it is that it's not your grandparent's wal-mart any more. they are using ai and technology through everything they do. throwing profits faster than revenues and you get this defensive quality in a staple but you have offense because they are just executing really well at a time when inflation will stay sticky. we think they will join the trillion dollar club. it is not a big stretch. about a 700 billion in revenue. it wouldn't surprise us to have a trillion dollar market cap. they deserve it. >> few things more thrilling than good special teams play. how do you do it? >> with special teams in the po rt folio we think of that as more active trading. the goal isn't to over trade but to be very patient. sometimes you get a good opportunity to build a high quality company that is short term dislocated and we actually

like nvidia. it's 12% off the highs after the earnings report last time. i think that a lot of the momentum investors moved away because there is this supply demand imbalance with bl acwell. that will right itself next year. with the stock on sale we know their earnings and growth will still be strong as investors you take advantage of that while nobody wants to, you know semi conductors, you know getting a nice discount. over 141 is a bit of a trigger for the stock. fast money traders may get involved. we may die it down here. that break over 141. >> sounds like a solid play book. eric clark. >> thank you. the view from the c suite. our experts lay out the biggest challenges facing america's

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welcome back to power lunch. this is your cnbc news update. the woman burned to death on a new york subway has been identified as a 57-year-old from new jersey. police say that a 33-year-old lit her on fire as she slept. he has been indicted on murder and arson charges. immigration authorities say that he has entered the united states illegally. israeli prime minister appeared today to push for support after having a prostate removal surgery. he left the hospital against his doctor's advice. hard line rebels have threatened to vote down the bill. and some good news for drivers as we head in to the new year. gas prices expected to drop in 2025 for the third year in a row. the national average for a gallon of gas is forecast to dip to $3.22. that would be the lowest national average and is about

11-cents less than the average of $3.33 this year. john. over to you. >> thank you. meantime companies faced a lot of challenges in 2024. ceo departures at companies hit a record high. the most notable included boeing, star bucks and infel. beyond that we have political fights and rising public hostility toward corporate leaders. given all this what challenges await ceo's in 2025? guys happy new year. why is direct communication going to be so important for ceo's? 2025? >> thank you for having me. they have become the mascots of mascots of their company. people make it very personal.

people treat the ceo's as the human emblem of the company. we see this happening with elon, alex carp and for the ceo to be strategic about displaying that combination of traits that they want to show to their company will be super important. way. were some of the best ceo moves in 2024? what can ceo's learn from 2025? >> i agree with what lulu just said. thank you for the invitation to minute me. i have been doing this particular segment believe it or not for over 30 years. it's just really good to take stock of where the last year is. learn from yesterday, live for today. hope for tomorrow. this past year we have seen that wal-mart, motorola, goldman sach's, bookings.com. citi group. these were under appreciated. their stocks soared. they did very well.

extraordinary transformations. i have a fortune magazine article that just came out on this. >> hold on. hold on. >> great transformation. >> we got breaking news on united states steel. >> take a look at united states steels. they are jumping after nipon steel is reportedly sweetening its bid as it hopes to get approval for its acquisition. nipon said it would give them a veto over any reduction in the production capacity. that is meant to help some of the concerns that is a decline -- could pose risks to the national security of the united states. now the president has until january 7th to decide whether or not to approve or deny the deal based on the concerns. you see united states steel up 9%. >> thank you very much for that. jeff i know this is an issue that -- we were even talking about the importance of some of our big industries on election

night. can you talk about your reaction to this sweetening of the pot? >> yeah. that is -- pretty exciting news. what's interesting, when we did talk about it we were surprised then as we are surprised up to this moment that this is one area where the president and president elect are in agreement and that is not where in fact the labor unions and many others are that are eager to see this as they feel go into the deeper pockets, stronger hands with the japanese ownership. there is a strong sense this should stay as a -- which is a protected industry like the airlines or others that we need to have this to be domestic and it is this sweetening of the deal. it's interesting. it'll make it more complex. this is going to have to go to litigation but right now the united states government both parties are against it. they want this to stay in united states hands. just a way we are looking -- trying to bring chips back to the united states.

it'll be a parodox. if it flipped the other way. it's certainly in the interest of a lot of key stake holders going to stronger hands. going into japanese hands. >> thank you for that. i want to do back to the conversation we were having. the ceo environment next year. we are seeing -- you had this big backlash for dei this year. that -- as you said they can personally lift or sink share price of the stocks. how does a leader of a company navigate all these new pressures amid by the way a lot of ai concerns or strategies that must develop and develop very quickly? >> so, ceo resentment has already been high. i think it'll get higher. i think part of the reason is that the job of being a ceo while it's paying really well

is not glamorous. you just always get hate and vitrol and that will just get worse. a lot of ceo's will get paid even better especially as the stocks and the best preforming companies rise. they will be under pressure from share shoulders to start replacing employee was ai. ai disrupting the job market is a reality. 2025 is going to really pop off in terms of ceo's. you will see them making major changes of replacing customer service and sales that a lot of people with ai will make resentment a lot worse. a lot of the ceo's that are the most interested and watched are those of private companies. space x, massive company. it's 350 billion value. i know it doesn't translate to market cap. a lot will be large cap companies in the s&p500. open ai in the midhundred, billions and -- a large cap

company ramp. these would all be large cap companies and we don't have the visibility. >> it seems like those ceo's -- they is more luxury to keep their private life private, to keep their politics private. they don't have to be on the earnings call. they aren't out there doing the investor meeting or public share holder meeting. they do investor meeting. who is doing it right? let's go through the top five list this year? >> it's -- i -- disagree a little bit. ceo's are still the most admired leaders. beating out academics, beating out the media and of course public firms at all levels and even the clergy. there are extremes on left and right that made a lot of noise. we have 200ceo's that went to the spot of the murder. the week after the murder of bryan thompson and they made a counter statement that they are here from the largest

companies. wal-mart has been remarkable. we talk about ai and your last speaker talked about the changes in wal-mart. it's really been a great ai story. this is not been a -- at the expense of job loss but really digital advertising. they are beating -- amazon in termless of their digital sales which is shocking. they also -- the sales are up on just on -- brick and mo rt ar4% on top of all this. motorola. they have up 50%. you talk about the issues. lulu and you were talking about on security. this is the country's premiere provider. people don't realize how well they are doing. they remember the old cell phone days. greg brown has lead a great transformation. david solomon, he pulled out of -- a lot of retail finance for good reasons on regulatory fronts and the stock is soaring

there. he has done very well up the 50%. the stock has tripled since he has been there. bookings.com which is another just amazing story. that stock had fallen about, i don't know. 97% at the time the new ceo entered there. since he has been there himself it's been a revolution is that they have -- they have soared -- tripled the company and are up 50% again this year. these are -- and then citi group. the back room organization. maybe it's -- it's get. they have done a great job. almost up 40% on her stock and getting out of some complicated international arrangements. sorry. >> thank you so much. we appreciate you bringing us the top five list. great to see you as well. happy new year. thank you. still ahead off to the races. big changes coming to horse racing in the new year. we discuss what it means for the industry, for sports betting and more. power lunch will be back.

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welcome back. prosports have moving the goal posts, changing up rules and features to try to increase interest in the game including mlb's pitch clock and new rules to name a few. now horse racing is trying a if you new tricks of its own. >> and they are off. >> hoe racing could be poised to take off in the new year. it's most famous trainer has returned after a three year suspension from churclill downs. >> i know what it's like to win the kentucky derby. >> churchill down is renovating. at belmont park in new york nearly half a billion. the kind of improvements industry insiders say are needed to attract new fans. >> they don't want to go to a

1960 racing facility with old infrastructure and bathrooms. >> a gate race consider investors own the slots, secure a grade horse and the slot value soars. owner can then buy, cell and trade to one multimillion dollars purses. >> it's a good way to increase a handle for the racetrack and get better horses. >> fan duels all in offering horse racing alongside football and basketball and drift kings sponsored the trappers as gambling increases so does the size of the purses. still, there is challenges including concerns over the welfare of the horses though owners and trainers hope enforcement will reassure fans and investors. >> we are seeing the consolidation, smaller crops and with that we are seeing

fewer horses races. in some ways the market shrinking. there's potential for growth. >> that attracting wall street money. danny is a trader famous for the short calls. he is long on horses. >> i can't think of a better experience than being with friends, trying to make money, enjoying yourself, gambling on the horses you own. it's a lot of fun. >> and what's really interesting the gambling part of this. as gambling expands it becomes this fly wheel where it funds those bigger purses, attracts a higher quality of horses, in the races and attracts new engagement. take churchill downs which is probably the purest play on horse racing for a public company year to date. it is about flat down, about 1%. beat something of its competition but i talk to the ceo and he said we think that we are poised for a completely

new era with new fans, especially with that crown jewel of the kentucky derby. pen said it's proud to be the biggest operator of p aram utual wagering across the nation. there's a lot of gambling company that have horse racing facilities or businesses and it'll be fun to watch to see what this sport does as this are new opportunities. >> all right. see if it comes back. fascinating. remember you can always hear power lunch on our podcast. be sure to follow and listen to power lunch wherever you go. we'll be right back. plus i'm investing in my game. sofi can help fund all your ambitions. (♪♪) no matter how ambitious. bank with sofi to score a higher apy and an epic welcome bonus. sofi. get your money right.

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niffin worldwide. dupes. i judgist did a story about wal- mart offering this knock off of a bag that's all the rage right now. is that still a thing these look alike of expensive products? >> that's been a thing forever. i got that in 1993. it's not like that's new. we have been knocking off products, trying to duplicate something that's a higher level brand and then getting away with being enough different that you don't get sued or put out of business over it but enough like it that the customer thinks its cool and wants to buy it. i would be shocked, shocked if that went away just like i would be shock shocked if counterfeits went away. >> i had another expert say that these sort of real expert, the luxury products, the thing that are going to last for a long time are becoming of more

value and fast fashion isn't going away. what does that mean for middle of the road products? >> i think that you have to remember what we are seeing to is things like the real reel where you buy something that is a 20 year old bag. it is still really cool. it's really expensive. it is still satisfies your need for that cool thing. there are some that are willing to buy that used product and people that are willing to pay up for the really good stuff et cetera. there are other people that don't have the capacity to do that and they still want to own cool, nice stuff. i think that we will have a really good time for brands in 2023 not just very high end brands. i think it's good if you are ralph lauren, if you are nike. you want to own that because it's a cool trademark. >> one of your proceed diction is that luxury will come back in 2025.

there was a column in the new york times over the past few days arguing that the quality had really gonna way from luxury in that luxury is on the outs. why do you disagree? >> depends on your definition of luxury. quality is not gonna way on the bag. it is not gonna way on the products. there are thing that are getting passed off as luxury that may be aren't as well made as they could have been in the past. on the other hand there is a group of people that want to own luxury products. they are being constrained by finances. particularly in asia. if the chinese government really starts to reflate their economy we will see luxury become important again and i believe given what we will see in the economy in the states is we won't see higher taxes. we thought we might. we may see some lower taxes. we are definitely going to see probably lower interest rates, better values, home equity

loans, that will drive money into that hundred thousand dollars year customer plus. >> one more. >> customers will buy better things. >> does nike's come back actually start to work in 2025? >> yes. somewhere in the 18 months when they started it we were going to see improvement and come back. i think we will see that in the second half of 2025. they will get a pipeline of newer product. they are getting positions in the stores. they are being nicer to the people selling their product and everybody is thrilled about that. if you talk to people in the real world. i think you are going to see more support for the brand, you will see newer, nicer product and you will see better distribution across the brands. i think that you will see a come back in nike.

private, as they fall and you can refinance canceling the dividend and going to see tapestry come back and talk to what's left of capri and decide what they want to own and that's the beginning of the cycle. there will be other areas for m&a because interest rates are likely to come down. >> that's the end of the show on the last day of the new year for "power lunch." thank you jan kniffen. >> "closing bell" starts now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour begins with investors ringing the register before they ring in the new year. continuing to take profits in the megacap winners and driving a multiday slide at the end of an otherwise stellar 2024. and dubai is ringing in the new year. take a look here. we're going to start to see the fireworks at the world's tallest building pretty impressive display right there, one of many to come. with 60 minutes