"squawk box" begins right now. good morning, good morning. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq marketplace. andrew is off today. here we go. first trading day of the year and things are off to a strong start. the dow futures are up by 240+ points. s&p futures are up by 42. nasdaq is up on your 190 after four days in a row of declines before this. stocks decline on tuesday, the final day of the year. they locked in gains of 2024 of 12.8% for the dow 23.3% for the s&p 500 and more for the nasdaq.

with nasdaq, these are the biggest back-to-back years of gains since back to their late 1990s. now it is a.i. feeling things. back then it was.com issues. we will see how this plays out. now the treasury yields. it looks like the 10 year is yielding 452. the 2 years that 451. you look at bitcoin, up 2.1%. we did make a stand at 92,000. the wall is up. what was that, 72? we have something last week, seasonally, oil could be something until later in the year when there is more production and we will know more about ukraine, iran, the

trump administration. to the attack in new orleans on new year's day. 15 people were killed and more than 30 injured. amanda pickup truck intentionally drove into the crowd. the fbi identified the suspect as a u.s. citizen that served in the army for 10 years. the rented pickup truck was electric. you can i hear it coming. he had an islamic state flag, an isis line. he had weapons and a potential explosive device. he opened fire on responding officers. he wanted to go, and he died in the gunfight. and fbi officials that they believe the suspect was not acting alone, but they have not disclose what they are talking about with co-conspirators. the sugar bowl, the college football playoff quarterfinal that many people were looking

for, that will happen today. georgia against notre dame, it was postponed over security concerns. i believe it will be played one mile from all of this happened. for a lot of reasons, you have security, and in general, and most people thought, that is what you do. you can imagine how disruptive it was for everybody, players, hotels, people with tickets and lands to this is that area down the french quarter. >> what if you are supposed be back at work on thursday, and going to watch the game, obviously, it was unbelievably tragic circumstances. this is a continuing concern of security in the area. for it is concern everywhere. there was a second attack that

took place, a cyber truck exploded yesterday outside of the entrance of the trump international hotel in las vegas, killing a person inside the vehicle and injuring several others standing by. it is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack. the bed of the truck contained gasoline tanks, fuel canisters and large fireworks and mortars. you can see the explosions after and the pleasure of watching them. authorities said they believe the explosion was an isolated incident, but they are not ruling out a connection between the explosion and the attack that took place in new orleans. both trucks were rented through an app, a peer to peer car rental service. it is like an airbnb for car rentals. you rent from people. bowl took place on that app. that's one of the reasons they are looking at these closely for potential connections.

it does not necessarily mean anything. i don't think there is an indication of the same group of people. using the same app, i mean i am never use that to rent a car. got to washington, the new house of representatives meets for the first time tomorrow. the first order of business is electing a speaker. president trump through his support behind mike johnson. his margin for error is razor thin. republicans will have a 219 to 215 majority. democrats are expected to vote for hakeem jeffries. i don't know why they bother to though. thomas massie has said he will oppose johnson and several others have said they are undecided. johnson can only afford to lose one more about. president-elect trump says he will attend next week's state funeral for jimmy carter, the died sunday at the age of 100. the national funeral service will be held on january 9 in washington.

earlier this week on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq said they will close the trading operations that day in our of him laying in state. russia halted the flow of natural gas to europe via ukraine. that happened yesterday. the gas transit deal using soviet air pipelines expired at the end of 2024. ukraine said it would not extend the deal because it is providing the revenues that helped moscow conduct the war in ukraine. they have been preparing by diversifying the suppliers. they have built additional elegy terminals to get other producers, including the united states. the stock futures this morning are pointing to gains to kickoff 2025. we will talk strategy with stephanie link after this.

you can see the dow futures up by 232 points. nasdaq is up 185. the s&p is up by 40. let's look at the best and worst performing stocks. in the s&p 500 in 2024, pelletier leaves the way by 340%. nvidia is up there . squawk box nvidia is up there . squawk box lle right back. it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built.

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gains to kickoff the new year of trading. joining us for that is the hightower chief investment strategist and a cnbc contributor. it's a great year for the markets for 2024. what we expect in 2025? morning, happy new year. i love being in a block on the first of the year. to put it into perspective, we know 2024 was a good year. it was the 24th best for the s&p 500. the nasdaq at the 15th best year in history. to put that in context, the s&p 500, the long-term total return for s&p 500 is 7.7%. we just have four of the last 6 years up north of 20%.

that is good. that is good for the consumer and the well the fact. that is something i keep a close eye on. as you go in to 2025, this is a bit harder. the reason why markets have done well is because the economy has been humming. we've seen north of 3% in gdp. a lot of that was fueled by physical stimulus. that was the nice tailwind. this administration, while they are progrowth, we will not see the type of physical stimulus that we have seen. what you will see is a bit of a slowdown in the economy. something like 2.5%. that is still above trend. that is healthy. that is healthy enough if you have a consumer hanging in there, which i think they will. you could get 5% to 7% growth. i think expectations are higher. i've seen numbers as high as 15%. i hope that is the case. i am headed into the year thinking will be constructive

and we will have an up here. i want to look at the laggards that underperformed in 2024. i think in 2025 they could catch up. they are quite cheap. for one of the laggards? >> let's start with target. completely out of favor. it is a show me the story, no question about it. they don't have a traffic problem. you know brian cornell and this company, they had 2.4% traffic growth last quarter. did you have a mix problem. they are slowly fixing them. i think you have a chance of getting back to something like 5% to 6% operating margins. secondly to $9.50 in earnings power for year, making this a cheap stock. i like that one as far as earnings. for a couple others and looking at -- >> just a bit of a show me

stop, they think they will show you this month after the first quarter is done? >> yes. i do. i don't think it will be perfect. i think they are still getting through some issues as far as inventory. inventory grew 3%. think they are working that down. they did have some one-time cost issues as well. you add that up, t is all about what they can do on the operating margin. two quarters ago, they had 6.4% operating margins. last quarter, 4.6%. that was a dramatic surprise in decline. i think they can get back to 5% to 6%. it gives me confidence in earnings power for the year. another stock you like his las vegas sands even though it has been underperforming. for it is down 27% since the year 2000. it is incredible how it has underperformed. i think this year sets up well for them.

macau is about 63% of total revenues. the stimulus in china will help eventually. i think what happened with them last year is they did well, but they had a lot of renovation work. they lost market share. this year they gain the marketshare because renovations are almost complete. devon analyst day in the spring . they will talk about it. in the meantime, the other part of the business is singapore, and it is coming. i do think it is the year for them to see them catching up. boeing is not he one you mentioned, down 30% over the last year. if you look at the five year chart, is down 47%. this is a stock that has been beat up. over the last month it is up 13%. >> yes. it has been a horrible year for them. obviously, the recent accident that we saw last week was

another negative for the company, potentially. however, you have a new ceo with a proven track record. he was at rockwell collins. when he was ceo, the stock was asked 107%. he is an operator and an engineer. he will fix the problems and change the culture. a number of executives have left over the last couple of weeks. they did shore up their capital concerns. they raised $21 billion in capital. they have about 3 years to bide the airtime. the 737 production >> and on track. they can get to 35 airplanes per month. if they can do that and deliver, that will help the free cash flow story. that is what the stock trades on. for if they fall short on deliveries? or expectations at this point? what happens then?

>> i think we have to give it a couple of quarters to get them going. as i was about to say, this is not a demand problem. there is a demand there between the airbus and boeing, they have it. airbus and boeing has 13,000 airplanes in the backlog. they have a demand, they have the orders, there is no place else that the airlines can go. they have to go. that is interesting. if you have a new ceo that is a proven executor, it is a show me stock as well. there is reason why they lacked , right? the concerns are already reflected in the valuations. eli lilly has dear stock down 17% from the highs. why do you like them to i bought eli lilly after i was on

squawk box, the day the ceo was on your show. the stock fell 13%. they disappointed in the quarter. i did a ton of homework on it. we were talking about it. i did not own it at the time, but i bought it then. i think it is the best in class franchise. the total market is addressable for diabetes and weight loss. i think something like $500 billion in the next 3 years. it probably is more. they are the number one player. they were able to grow revenues 42%. if you exclude diabetes and weight loss drugs, the revenue grew 17%. they are minting money as far as free cash flow. it is not cheap. i do like that it has low back. you get the number one company on sale. it's rare to find out. was mentioned, what is it? dr horton? the holders have been an entire sector that we have watched closely. interest rates have only gone up. some of the homebuilders can

make up for that when they are dealing with ways to convince buyers to come in and lower rates for them. it is a difficult market. >> it is a challenging market. yes, you are right, winning mortgage rates to get under 6%, maybe near 5% for demand to pick up. i do think, across the board, every company had homebuilder lowers guidance for the coming quarter. they lowered the gross margins for the quarter. all of the stocks got hammered. this stock is trading at 11 times earnings. it is in an area that i like in the country, the southeast and southwest areas, where demand is very strong. we are 5 million homes short in the country. the homebuilders have under produce for 14 consecutive years. this will be the 15th year. they would rather buy back stock them by land.

to me, i think the setup is, when interest rates come down, and i do think they eventually will, especially if we see the slower economy, that will perpetuate better demand and better margins. you do get that operating leverage. we might have to wait for a couple quarters, but most companies set the bar low. they have a younger cohort and more exposure to the first-time buyer. we know there are 5 million millennials looking to purchase a first-time home. thank you very much for joining us today and walking us through all of that. happy new year. thank you. coming up, officials in new jersey are making an 11th hour push to block new york's congestion blocking plan. >> why 11? >> because there are 12 hours

on the clock face. a >> because in matthew's gospel, workers were hired around 5 pm, which was the 11th hour, they received the same wages as those that worked all day. for that was the lesson. as for people would work from 6:00 a.m. to 6 pm. the 11th hour was literally the last hour before the day ends. >> that is something i did not know. >> we have details on the latest legal challenge, next. next, jeremy siegel will weigh in on his market expectations for the new year. squawk box will be right back.

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's new jersey federal law you are moving forward with the congestion pricing plan in manhattan that we talked a lot about. if you don't live here, we are not wasting your time, it could happen to you. the request came late tuesday, one after the judge regressed -- rejected new jersey's challenge. they ordered federal transportation officials to provide more information about the review and approval of the plan. it is unclear whether the judge will rule on the equest for the toll takes effect on sunday. not worried, use mass transit. >> it is not a big deal. >> oh man, this about me shoved?

we don't worry about that. >> documents the woman was set on fire. >> okay, then make no money, they have mismanaged mass transit in this city. they spent all this money already, this is like raising the debt ceiling. they need congestion pricing to make up for money that they have flown by not making mass transit safe. is mayor adams behind this? for i have not heard. you would think if he was bothered by it, he would be more vocal. >> you would think you would be bothered. and makes it harder for everyone to get back to the way it was before the pandemic. there are so many people here to serve all the people that come in from new jersey. as for the argument is, this is how they make their living. as for whether you are selling lunches or in the parking garage , if you want people to come

back into the city for work, you should not make it more expensive. for how much is it? for it is nine dollars a day. drinks are expressing, could go up to $13 or $40 per day. >> with the tunnels and bridges? it's like $20? for our the $20 now? >> if you have an easy pass, and if you go off peak, it is different prices. if you want people to come back in to work to come in for entertainment, you should not make it more expensive to do so. for okay, has worked other places? >> london is cited again and again. >> okay. >> we will see. >> the call congestion pricing. they don't want as much traffic here. the goal is to keep people, to keep them from driving themselves and put them on mass transportation. for that is the status. we can get on a bus, where no one pays

. for more than 50% of people on the buses do not pay the fear. if something like 30% for the subways. when we come back, where the shutdown house of representatives. the speaker boat is set for tomorrow. will take you live to washington, d.c. first, tesla is get delivery numbers that the catalyst for the stock. they could report that as soon as today. we will have that next on squawk box. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up.

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good morning, welcome back to squawk box in times square. we have seen some solid premarket sessions that have petered out. 230 points for the first day of 2025 is a good start. i wonder if, as the morning goes and the day goes, as the first day goes, the first five days go, as is january goes,

the year goes. the one that works. we did mention energy prices, we don't have much that has happened in the last year. we are at 73 this morning. bitcoin is rebounding a bit. it was about 105 at least, i think it was 107. recently was trading at 92. apparently there was some support there. it is up 2%. i didn't see somewhere else were set up 3.5%. it just depends on what you use . i have 3.37% on this. >> it never really closes. as for gold was up 28% in 2024. is just under $2700. rolex is kicking off 2025 by hiking prices on some of its most popular models by as much as a percent. they are citing the rise in the

price of gold used in the timepieces. i guess the apple watch, or whatever it is called, that is the demise of rolex, think that was greatly exaggerated. not everybody wants to know their blood sugar. >> is a showpiece. it's like wearing jewelry. >> i have one as an anniversary present. it says it is saturday and it is 9:30, on the eighth. i use it for a lot of really good info. we are awaiting new numbers from tesla. we have the expectations on that. good morning, happy new year. when we get the tesla numbers, the expectation is that we will likely get them today, based on the track record of when they release results. when we get the tesla numbers,

the focus will be on, does the company have enough to increase sales year-over-year? the estimate for the fourth quarter is for 504,000 vehicles to be delivered. they'll be an increase of 9% compared to the third quarter. by the way, that was a record in terms of deliveries for tesla. as mentioned, many people will be saying, did you deliver as many vehicles, if not more in 2024 compared to 2023? in 2024, they delivered 1.81 million vehicles. to hit the mark, tesla would have to deliver 515,000 vehicles. that is not the consensus on the street. that is not what is expected. still over 500,000 would be the person they hit the half- million mark for any quarter. it will set up the rest of the year. the question is, where is tesla in two markets? first of all, china. we know

what is happening in china. there was the report over the coming days that the registrations in 2024 were up 7.7% and there is some momentum that has been building in the second half of the year. that is partially good news. the market for electric vehicles is growing faster than how deliveries have been trending when it comes to the model 3. there is pressure on tesla. the other question is what happens in the united states with regard to the federal electric vehicle incentives? do they roll out the lower-priced model as planned in 2024? one focuses on autonomous vehicles. the market limit is at $1.3 trillion. we know what has happened in the fourth quarter, we know what happened since the election of donald trump in november, it has been off to the races in anticipation that when it comes to autonomous vehicles in the future, tesla, due to elon musk's relationship

with donald trump, will benefit. 1.0, look at shares of the legacy automakers like toyota, ford, we do expect today to get the quarter 4 and 2024 deliveries or sales. the sales rate for december, it was a good month. best month of the year. expectation is 16.5 million as a sales rate, maybe, but it's high enough, you can see the full year number get about $16 million. that would be the best since before the pandemic. we have a lot of news coming out. we do expect tesla later this morning based on what they have done historically. on a side note, the incident in las vegas, that cyber truck is like a tank. i'm trying to figure out, if you're planning something really evil, and

wanted to inflict damage, that is the last vehicle you would use. using a tesla, i have no idea what the motives are, we don't know anything yet. that is a stupid one. the bed was still intact, wasn't it? it was a huge explosion, it was almost destroyed, but not completely destroyed. that thing, it is intact. >> that's right. for we are getting into this area, and who knows what the explosive device was. was the canisters of gasoline? no idea at all. clearly, we don't know. putting tesla in front of a trump hotel,? we will leave it there. >> it is possible to say

anything. you cannot help but think that something was there. it was the same day, i have no idea whether there is any connection. they are looking at possible connections to what happened in new orleans as well. we won't go beyond that. you talk about tesla comments were not to mention the news that this happened. we think we get the tesla delivery numbers later today. when we get them, whether it is today or tomorrow, we will be ready. as you always are, we appreciate it. >> you were born ready. when we come back, the msg network goes dark rock among customers. we have the details of the battle, after this. is a good rate, this is a look at the currency tdera. we will be right back here

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things to bet on. it's overwhelming. it's almost overwhelming. >> last night, matt was flipping through going back and forth. for tomorrow, or saturday, the bengals will be televised. we have all these nfl games. there are 12 teams, and then you have college basketball in full swing and the nba and the nhl. there are so many ways to lose money. i have so many different ways to lose money. i cannot pick. we have a closer look at elon musk in the proximity to president-elect trump. >> actually, i had ohio state. i had arizona state. >> that was exciting. for it was a hard day to watch football. anyway. we look at t pheolicy with the new administration. we will talk about that, next. we will try to make it not all

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president-elect trump at mar-a- lago. we are looking at his proximity to trump, and ways that he could shape falls into the new administration. new york times reporter, teddy, it's good to have you on. the only time we see bipartisan stuff, normally the two parties agree on things that are not great. i have noticed that a ot, like blocking the steel merger, finally we have some consensus. often times i disagree with the consensus. both parties, people in both parties have relationships with billionaires, i think.

you pick your billionaire. none of them have trillion errors. maybe elon musk is the first trillion air. this is something odd to watch. i don't know, is the clock ticking? they are both so material, it makes you wonder how long it lasts? >> both parties have a long history of dealing with wealthy people that brought influence. i don't think we've seen anything like this. elon musk reported in the times this week, he has been renting a place at mar-a-lago since election day. elon musk, imagine george soros , claiming that by then transitions. we have not seen someone quite so involved. look, he's not even president yet. this could happen for a longer amount of time. is there a ticking time bomb here? that is the expectation. i feel like so many people

think that will be the case, makes you want to take the under, speaking of bedding, excuse me, taking over that this could last longer than people give it credit for. >> both sides have conspiracy theories. i'm listening to you thinking, george soros whenever be so open about it. i look at the behind-the-scenes things going on. it seems even more insidious in certain ways. you would never rent, nor would his son rents you know, a billow for $2000 and i, where you are 50 feet from the president. he has not been inaugurated yet. i wonder, when you're down there, it is a nice place, i think it is $1 million a year to join mar-a-lago. you are at the new year's eve parties, does not mean it is the same. you will not rent out a room at the white house. >> went trump as president,

elon musk direct access to the guy. he would say i would prefer that trump will do x, y, and z and trump will listen. he is not elected. trumps chief of staff is also unelected, everyone is unelected except for trump and j.d. vance. when you listen to the trump people, that is their argument. this is being exact or exaggerated and overly so specialized be so negative when their point is, yes, elon musk has no experience in white house policy and politics, but that is an advantage. he can come in and observe a government that is not working and a country that is not working and make fresh adjustments. that is the point of the initiative that is being pushed. and it is why people in the public sector may be dream of

private sector involvement, is because these people have experience doing something else that they can bring to bear on policymaking. talk about bipartisan issues, that everybody agreed that we want the talents in s.t.e.m. . we have lagged in s.t.e.m. in this country to some extent. very successful people have used these visas to come in. i thought we all wanted to be able to do that. i'm surprised that causes consternation. i thought that was a good thing when president-elect trump backed the view on that. even that gets criticism from certain sectors. for that is a consensus point that, you may have been concerned about. that is what the m.a.g.a. wing is concerned about. you use the word conspiracy, like there was this conspiracy of the globalists and the left, and the free market, like mitt

romney, and those people pumping the country full of these visas, and it is hurting american workers, in their view. that's why they elected trump to be the wrecking ball, now he likes it. >> yes. i am curious what trumps actual position will be. this whole issue struck me as a valid window into this. >> they say we have to go. is it possible that deep down, elon musk could just want the best interest? i don't know how much more he needs. i don't know how many boats he can waterski behind. is it possible that he genuinely, everything he thinks of as what he thinks would be best for the country? even some of the stuff trump wants to do, he's not trying to

get reelected, isn't it possible that these are not motives of self-interest, but actually motives for what both of these guys think would be best for the country? >> i do. i think at times, people try to scrutinize power and wealth, sometimes we take that too far in our culture, in trying to assess, house test love benefiting from xy or z? that is legitimate scrutiny, but elon musk is an individual person. he has a heart and a brain and two arms and two legs. he has opinions about politics he also is the year of the white house and the next president. he is an extraordinary influence. i do believe he genuinely cares. >> is the leader of the free world on the richest guy in the world. it is weird. one of them likes the power and the other one like the money, but it may not be that simple or that cynical. it might just be that is something that both of them

actually have good intentions. you may not hear that a lot in the way discovered. you have seen, you have acknowledged the possibility. >> i am open to it. >> you need to keep covering them, because i don't know, absolute power corrupts absolutely. i'm sure $1 billion would corrupt me. what are you? do you think we would both end up just like mr. burns from the simpsons? release the hounds? >> sure thing, luckily i am not in that position. for what you mean lovely? what you mean? for i don't have to deal with that. for they are not happy with all that money, thank you. we will be right back. when we come back home a closer look at one 2024's highflying stocks.

peloton is a pandemic darling with a market cap as high as $50 billion. it plunged in the years after the pandemic when people were not using them anymore. it did rebound le atlast year. we talked about the challenges ahead for the new ceo, next.

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let's wait and see. what does the new ceo of the layout convince you there are potential gains for the stock? >> i'm looking for subscriber growth to accelerate in 2025 or 2026. in our model, and the streams at large, we do expect that the fitness subscribers decline this year and the following year. we are waiting to see that all of those pandemic gains have subsided. now you are into a period where you can see growth. for let's talk about the connectedness, that is how they make their money? you purchased the bike, but then you pay for the subscription to be connected to the fitness program? for exactly right. there is an upfront cost to the bike that has come down as they reduce pricing to open up the market. at the end of the day, the best part of the business and the highest gross profit margin is the connected fitness

subscriber base. that is really steady. they have done a great job to have high engagement from users to drive subscribers and keep the core base. at the end of the day, we don't see that growing again. that driveshas to happen, i guess, with those -- if that's something that doesn't happen in the next 12 months, then what? >> yeah. well, let's talk about that. peloton has done a number of different things in terms of trying to accelerate growth. they've launched new markets, they added one, i think, two years ago in terms of europe. i think there's more potential for them to utilize partners like amazon or other third-party retailers, for them to be able to push into new international locations. there's also just the awareness of the overall trend, i'm a little bit skeptical of the tread product versus the bike. the bike is just such a good product, you know, we have tried both products. the bike is just fantastic, and i actually think it's taking

demand from the tread, just given the fact that the bike is easier to use. it's lower priced, and it just offers a great fitness experience, and so the question is, okay, where does that next subscribers come from, and in all honesty, i'm not sure. >> when you say we tried it, you mean you? >> yes, that's the royal we. yes, i've tried it. >> how do they do the connected fitness program for the treadmill? what's offered? i get the classes on the bikes, and having people who get really into the whole idea of competing with each other and being able to do those things, what's the equivalent of that on the treadmill? >> you know, there are a bunch of boot camp classes that gain popularity over the last decade. berries, things like that, and so there is a set of running classes that are available, but

really the good product or fitness classes really weights plus running on the treadmill, so that's what they're pushing there. >> okay. andrew, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you so much. it is just past 7:00 a.m. about 7:02. just before then, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is off today, thursday. >> i know. it's not monday. >> thursday, i just have to keep telling myself that. among today's top stories, the investigation continuing, see, i can't say that, the truck didn't attack anyone. it was a terrorist that attacked people in new york using a truck in new orleans, i'm sorry, during the early hours of new year's day. at least 15 are dead. dozens more are injured. the fbi focused on the texas-born suspect and his motives may have had something to do with the isis flag.

he did have an islamic state flag attached to the truck. weapons and a potential explosive device inside the rented pickup, which was even more devious because it was an electric vehicle that you couldn't even hear coming. we're going to have a live report from new orleans in just a few minutes. authorities are investigating the explosion of a tesla cyber truck just outside the entrance of trump international hotel in las vegas. it was yesterday morning, the blast killed one person, the person inside the car and several others that were standing nearby. this incident is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack. a motive hasn't been determined or whether it's related in any way to what happened in new orleans. in a statement on x, tesla ceo elon musk says the explosion was caused by in his words very large fireworks and/or a bomb carried in the bed of the truck. all right. let's check on the futures this morning. things have actually been

picking up. we have been strongly in the green all morning, but at this point, the dow futures are now up by about 370 points, s&p fuchls up by 60, the nasdaq up by 260. let's get over to dom chu, with a look at this morning's premarket movers. what's driving things today. >> first of all, good morning, happy new year to joe and becky, both of you guys, we'll start off with maybe the positivity on cryptocurrencies, we are seeing a bid for bitcoin prices, starting the new year in the green, below the record high of $108,000. bitcoin prices are at 96,600. that boost is causing shares of crypto aligned stocks to move up as well. had slid about 12% this week after pulling back with its weekly bitcoin purchases, so bitcoin prices, micro strategy, coin base in focus with the bid in the green. also big technology, alphabet shares up about a percent, despite a downgrade to market

perform from outperform over at jmp securities. analysts say potential antitrust penalties from the department of justice could impact google's u.s. distribution of search product. those shares coming off a 37% gain in 2024. so those shares are up 1% premarket. and we'll finish with uber and norwegian cruise lines, both in the green after goldman sachs added both stocks to the conviction buy list. analysts say that uber will continue to see bookings growth and further penetration in less dense markets. on the norwegian cruise side of things, they say the post pandemic boom in cruises has more room to go. for that and more on all of those other calls we have spoken about and other top calls of the day, head to cnbc.com/pro. guys, i will send things back over to you. dom, thank you. >> what's your price target on the s&p this year, dom, by the end of the year?

>> you know, if i could give a price target. nobody wants to listen to my price targets, i think it's going to be a fairly positive year. i was thinking about 20%, something like that. i think a good 8 to 15% respectable range is probably a good idea for this coming year. >> i like that you're doing it. i like that you had an answer for me. you are, your default position, you know, for stocks over time, that's not a bad position to take to stay bullish. people that have been bearish for the last 30 years look ridiculous. >> it's funny, joe, in my former wall street life, i was a financial adviser, investment adviser at one point, you were better off telling clients always that the market was going to go up, even if it didn't, right, because more often than not, the market does go up, so you would be correct. it's an interesting dynamic that you talk about with regard to financial management and wealth management because generally

speaking the markets go up. >> it's going to be up, down or flat, i'm pretty sure of that. i have a weather prediction with global warming, it's going to be a cold, wet, warm, dry year. >> i think spring's going to be a little bit wet. summer is going to be warm. winter is going to be very cold. >> could be hot in the summer, probably. >> that's just anecdotally, i'm no meteorologist. i don't even play one on tv. >> although january is supposed to be colder. >> it's supposed to be colder in the next couple of days. >> becky, we're due for it. we haven't had a really bad winter in a wile. >> and we had a beautiful fall. >> it was a great fall. >> california weather. >> i don't know what the downside is on all of this. i liked it. i don't know where the crisis is. coming up, a new year for the markets, north carolina weather up here. our first chance to talk to wharton's jeremy siegel about a potential pause for the bulls.

that's straight ahead. later this hour, former fda commissioner, i talk to scott gottlieb on everything from the bird flu to weight loss drugs. i'm worried about the poor birds. "squawk box" is coming right back. your loved ones are getting older, and they need your support. care.com is here to help. it's an easy way to find background-checked senior caregivers in your area.

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let's say you're deep in a show see or a game or the game.es have trusted care. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? let's take a closer look at the markets, jeremy siegel, wharton school, professor emeritus, and wisdom tree chief economist. for about a month, maybe a

little bit longer, the market has seemed to be a little bit more tentative than usual, than we've seen in the last couple of years, even though no one really liked the market for a couple of years, especially at the beginning, jeremy. lately, i think, valuation concerns, at least for me. you don't want to be a new president at 22 times earnings, it's much better to be obama, to come in after the financial crisis. >> yeah, and happy new year's to you, joe, and you're hitting one of the nails, i think, right on the head. you know, we talk about 22 times earnings. now, that's earnings that are up 16 to 17% projection from 2024. now, in the last two years, and these were good years, everyone admits, we had 8 to 9%. so i'm wondering now, what is going to be that catalyst that

is going to jump it to 17%. that's pretty high. if we have another 8% and, you know, most economists say, hey, that's a good increase, we're really 23 to 24 times earnings. now, it's been higher, in that big run-up in 1999, we just kept on going, but, you know, we essentially got too high as we know in 2020 and 2000 that caused a big decline. but there's a second point, and, you know, everyone is very optimistic. in many ways, we should be in the trump election, but remember something, when trump got elected in 2016, in 2017, we reduced that corporate tax from the mid 30s down to 21%. we cut the capital gains tax rate. we doubled the estate tax exemption. we had passed through tax breaks

for small businesses. all of that was done. what is new that's going to happen on the tax front for capital in 2025. now, trump has talked about 15% for domestic businesses that produce domestically, that's about it. he did not talk about any further cut in capital gains taxes, any further exemption on a state or any other pass through exemption. we talked about tip income and social security. but let's face it, we're going to see if in a few days, this battle for speaker, house speaker. trump came in with a much bigger majority in the house, in 2017 than he does now. how many of these new tax cuts is he going to get through. now, a lot of those good things.

i do think it's going to be renewed. you get enough votes to get a continuation of what we had, and that's great. but what is the new propellant that i think is going to drive some of these really very very large expectations for '25 s&p gains. >> the counter factual. just because we dodged the bullet of what kamala harris was talking about or another biden administration, just because we dodged that bullet doesn't mean that there's going to be something incrementally positive that hasn't already been done, except, jeremy, maybe deregulation. >> right, now, but don't forget a lot of deregulation, great deregulation during trump's first term, biden took back some of it. but not a lot of it. >> still effective. all i got is more ai. >> yeah, but we have ai, and, you know, there's a lot of huge

profits that ai arrative continues. it's really hard to break narratives, the internet narrative continued in the late 1990s. i'm not saying it's unreasonable. that is what -- and we have to also see those people buying the ai, getting those profit and margin expansions, not just investing in it, but saying i'm making enough money to pay for the black well chip, that it's worth my while to do that. we have seen step one. i'm not sure how much. we're seeing step two that needs to verify all of the excitement on ai. i think it could be there, but i'm saying there's still a story that's needed on that side. >> and then the other thing is i don't know how much doge can get done, you know, without

congress. i don't know what's -- you know, how you really cut since so much is nondiscretionary, and that might be good long-term, but near term it might be contractionary. i don't know if we can say that's going to be bullish for stocks. all in all, jeremy -- >> i mean, it's a first year. i said late in december i think this is a year for a correction, which is defined in that. i'm not sure, i think the end of the year, i'm not saying, we'll be in a correction by the end of the year, but, you know, it's been a long time since i have called something like that. you know, certainly one could be wrong. i see some of that optimism, as you pointed out, joe, everyone a year ago was on the bearish side. >> i have been sounding like you. i've been sounding like you, at least that's the feeling in my gut, that's sort of the feeling that, you know, i have been

having. you get the two best years you've had since the '90s. you don't have to be a genius to think we might be -- >> there's some catchup at some time. and this might be the year, healthy correction, i'm still very strong long run, but, you know -- >> we could get rate cuts. when the economy gets maybe slows we could get more rate cuts but for the wrong reason, you know what i mean. >> that's exactly right. we're always going to get one or two at most. that's where the conflict may be between trump and powell is going to take place because if the market does take a correction, trump might say we got to lower rates, then we're going to get some tension. not now. i think they're in sync right now. i'm hoping that other scenario doesn't happen. there's another point of potential conflict down the road. >> okay. thanks, professor siegel, we'll see you. >> thank you, joe. coming up, the latest report

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and now the answer to the aflac trivia question, on this date in 1967, who was sworn in as the 33rd governor of california? and the answer, ronald reagan, the gipper. the latest read on mortgage demand out just moments ago. diana olick joins us now. she's got more on that front. hi, diana. >> hi, becky, two weeks for the price of one. mortgage demand cratered to end 2024, thanked to a sharp rise in mortgage interest rates, total mortgage rate buy in ending december 27th dropped 21.9% compared with the week before that period, that according to

the mortgage bankers association seasonally adjusted index, and an additional adjustment was made to account for the christmas holiday. during that time, the average rate on the 30-year fixed increased to 6.97% from 6.89 for loans with 20% down. rates were 21 basis points higher than they were the year before, and that's a big change because they had been lower on an annual comparison for much of 2024. applications to refinance a home loan, which is most sensitive, of course, to interest rate moves fell 36% from two weeks before and were 10% higher than the same week a year ago. applications for a mortgage to buy a home fell 13% during the two weeks, and were 17% lower than the same period one year ago. while december is typically the slowest month of the year for home sales, these numbers are seasonally adjusted and that annual comparison is showing considerable weakness. there are more homes on the market now than there were last year at this time. many of those homes have been

sitting for months due to higher prices and again, higher mortgage rates. this read on rates is an average for the week, and it's a it messy with the two-week read. fixed rate over 7%. there will likely be plenty of volatility in the rates today due to the holiday yesterday but the trajectory appears now to be higher. back to you guys. >> diana, just out of curiosity, when you're measuring year over year, i guess things are thrown off by the seasonal factors, when the holidays don't line up, people are working and not working around those dates. is it unusual to see, i guess i'm not surprised to see a drop in activity when people are celebrating the holidays? >> right. but again with the seasonal adjustments and the year ver year, the numbers are messy, they're always messy during this two weeks of the year. you can see an increase if rates have fallen. the trajectory of higher rates is pulling demand out of the mortgage market. we saw this before the holidays

hit, and again, december is the slowest month for refinancing, for buying a home, so you're coming off a small base again. yes, the 36% and 22% drops, those are bigger than they probably should be, but we're seeing that mortgage demand is really pulling back out of the market because of these higher rates. >> okay. thank you. authorities in new orleans are searching for more clues surrounding yesterday's terror attack that left 15 dead, dozens injured. nbc news correspondent jay gray joins us now from new orleans. jay, good morning, what's the latest on this? >> yeah, joe, look, french quarter still locked down, bourbon street. we're in the middle of canal street, the busy thoroughfare that runs on the edge of the french quarter. this is still an active investigation. normally there would be hustle and bustle, it's always loud in new orleans here, it seems. not now, there's an eerie silence in the city, a concern.

so many here like investigators searching for answers right now. chaos in the french quarter, this truck darting around the police vehicle, then accelerating into a crowd on bourbon street. >> there was pandemonium. it was obviously emergency vehicles everywhere. police were everywhere. bodies, folks were just running through the streets. >> reporter: at least 15 killed, dozens injured, in what the fbi has labeled a suspected terror attack. >> an isis flag was located on the trailer hitch of the vehicle. weapons and potential improvised explosive devices, ieds were located in the subject's vehicle. >> reporter: the suspect identified as 42-year-old sham shud din jabbar, after crashing into a roadside crane, jabbar apparently jumping from the vehicle, and after wounding two officers killed in a shootout

with police. agents now indicating he likely had help carrying out the attack. >> we do not believe that jabbar was solely responsible. we are aggressively running down every lead, including those of his known associates. >> reporter: law enforcement teams searching the suspect's home in houston, and the scene of an overnight fire at a new orleans airbnb where investigators believe some of the explosive devices may have been assembled. two additional ieds located in the french quarter were rendered safe, the area still locked down as the investigation continues. yeah, and look, the sugar bowl, part of the college football playoff was canceled yesterday or postponed until today. kickoff still scheduled for 4:00 this afternoon eastern time. even though the state attorney general in louisiana suggested it may be postponed at least another day. the governor, though, coming out yesterday saying there's stepped up security here, a larger perimeter around the super dome

where the game is going to be played. more officers and federal agents, more bomb sniffing dogs. he says he will be there, and believes at kickoff, the super dome could be the safest place in the world. joe. >> let's hope so, jay. it seems like just implied in everything, there are other bad actors around it sounds like, almost for sure. would you agree with that? >> reporter: no, joe, i think you're dead on with that. i think that they are actively looking for others who may have been involved. the chief of police in new orleans today said that while there have been no arrests and it's now been over 24 hours since the attack, there are, what he calls people of interest that they are looking at. that is a very key element of this investigation, and something that in the airbnb here that we just talked about where they believe some of the explosive devices may have been

built, that those accomplices could have been in that home as well. so that's something they're really keen on right now in trying to get answers. >> and we always ask, jay, who are these people that run directly at that truck with fire coming at them and engage this guy. because who knows how bad this could have been in such a crowded area, a guy with an assault rifle and ieds, and you just got to hand it to the bravery of these first responders, it's amazing. >> reporter: yeah, and joe, no question, federal agents as well as local police say that those officers on the ground saved lives by running to the incident and, again, engaging in a fire fight with this suspect. he was taken down. two officers were injured, but we are told they were released from the hospital and are going to be fine. >> that's great. okay. that's good. anyway, jay. thanks for your reporting.

we appreciate it. >> one other thing to kind of look at with these issues is truro, the app where you're renting these cars was used in both of these. airbnb used in this. truro for car rentals. i have used airbnb, and i don't think i have ever been required to show my proof of identification like you do when you check into a hotel or something. it also gives you the added benefit if you have a house where you have more privacy if you're trying to pull something off along those lines. >> exactly. that's true. we got to go. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box," here's the futures this morning. almost 400 points for the dow. upward moves this morning, nice in the nasdaq as well, 268 points, one of the biggest stories of 2024 was the move in bitcoin. prices and right now, we're seeing 96.5 or so, up a couple of thousands. well above 100,000 for a while, but recently a lot of the sort of the risk-on assets have pulled back. not everything, but bitcoin did. let's check out the price of oil, which could be an interesting story for 2025. that's where we're starting. 72 and change here. it's january 2nd. have i got that right?

>> it is. well done. more importantly, what day of the week is it? >> more importantly, what year is it? >> 2025. >> great. but yeah, it's thursday. >> that's tough. it does feel like monday. when we come back, what will the new year hold for world health? from the cold and flu season to weight loss drugs, former fda commissioner dr. scott gtlb otie will join us to field all of our questions. that's next. "squawk box" returns after this quick break. it could be... demodex blepharitis! and we're demodex mites. we're very common and super irritating to your eyelids... but we love making ourselves comfortable here! oh, yeah...steam time! if demodex mites are partying it up on your eyelids... it's time to eliminate the root of the problem with xdemvy. with one drop in each eye twice a day... you can kill the mites in just six weeks. xdemvy is the first and only fda-approved treatment

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if you don't already know it, maybe you do in your household, we are in the thick of flu, covid and rsv season. joining us right now with this and much more is former fda commissioner, dr. scott gottlieb, he's now a pfizer and lumina board member and a cnbc contributor. let's talk through where things stand. a lot of people realize this, have gotten through the holidays and maybe have some sickness in their household. how bad is it? >> it's not that bad right now. we're probably in the peak season with flu and rsv and covid as well. right now, 5% of all visits to emergency departments are for influenza-like illness. it's higher among kids. as high as 13% kids aged 0 to 4.

overall it's about 5%. will probably continue to go up the next week or two and hopefully come down with flu a and rsv as well. the rsv season was a little bit late this year. >> maybe all colliding at the same time because of the later rsv season. >> it's a confluence of things, and rsv usually hits earlier. covid is peaking around the same time. there's a sense there's a lot of coughs and sniffles around, and there are because all three epidemics are converging. >> what about norovirus, i feel like i know people have come across that. >> it was the worst year ever for stomach born, on cruises. >> i'm not going on a cruise. >> but it was the worst year ever, and i thought about you. sent you some 15% off. >> i don't take cruises, and that's a big part of the reason why. >> we dealt with this in my household. 24 to 48 hours.

it's spread fee cal, oral. >> worst two things ever. >> not right for breakfast. it can spread in a household if you're not careful. and it can be very bad, you can have severe vomiting and diarrhea over a 24, 48 hour period. if you can't keep fluids down, you can get into trouble quickly if you're older or younger. it's an unusual peak of that virus this time of the year. >> i was reading up about it. it can't be killed by using those hand sanitizers, you got to wash your hands well for 20 seconds. >> and it can live on surfaces for a while. >> don't pea e on your hands. >> it's not pee it's poop. >> i have three sensational things to talk about with you. can i ask you? >> sure. >> is thefor-profit model still

what we should use for health care. >> good question. >> because, i mean, it's a legitimate question. the fire department doesn't try to make money. i still think that for profit, it does make you mind your p's and q's, but it does seem to cause people to pull back care that's necessary. i'm talking about the whole united health care, how should we fix this? >> when you think about companies like for profit health insurers, they're implementing plans on behalf of the government and employers. people who don't like the benefit structure, the prior authorization, what they're doing is implementing constraints being imposed by the contracts that they have either with the government agencies like medicare advantage or self-employed businesses that are contracted with them to administer the benefits. so it's really the benefit structure that people are entering into that's imposing

those -- >> yes and no. it was the "wall street journal" or "new york times" that laid out this huge investigative story, taking a look at how sometimes united health in particular is the one they focused on, but there were doctors involved who were -- and the setup for the doctors involved in their own health care was they had to go through this checklist, and it was set up to try and get you to say that these are the, you know, that your patient has some really crazy diagnosis before you even saw them, and these happened to be the ones that medicare paid the most for. >> the tactics people can take issue with in terms of how the employers are trying to impose cost constraints, but they're imposing cost constraints on behalf of consumers for the companies they're contracting with. >> based on the idea of how much more they can build out of things. >> their profit margins are slim. when i worked at the medicare agency, cms, and we were

implementing the medicare, we looked at the cost constraints so we didn't have to do it in the government. the aelgttive is to have government agencies administering the rules and imposing constraints, more remote from the consumer. as much as there's angst with your health insurer, imagine trying to deal with the government with these things. the government outsources to private mental health plans, someone is going to have to impose the cost constraint. it's either going to be for-profit companies or the government. properly regulated, this is the right model. we can quibble if they're being properly regulated. >> everything is related. robert f. kennedy jr., things are controversial, lifestyle issues and food and obesity in this rnt can, if we could get a grip on that, i think the costs would immediately be more manageable. is he a person who could be effective in that role? i mean, do you think he's going

to -- >> you weren't here when scott came on to talk about his thoughts about rfk jr. earlier. >> i haven't seen him implement a policy planning. we implemented the calorie counts on menu labels, whether you go into a restaurant, you see the calories. >> i hate those. >> i love those. >> i can't order anything thanks to you. >> to try to reduce salt in food, those were extremely controversial moves. i faced a lot of backlash from conservatives who felt they were nanny state type politics. rfk is talking about firing nutrition staff at the fda and corruption at the fda, if you were serious about implementing regulations on food, to reduce additives. >> it wouldn't be good. >> you would be beefing up that staff. >> you think he's okay? >> more regulatory tools over food ingredients, that's not what they're talking about. i worry that they're aspirational, not talking about

how to implement these things in policy. >> he had come on before when you weren't here, and raised his concerns about some of the other issues there. kimberly strassel at the "wall street journal" has written her piece on why she's opposed to the policies too. >> my concern when we spoke was around the vaccine policies, not around what he's trying to do on food. what he's trying to do on food can provide public health benefit. what i worry about is i don't see them articulating how they're going to implement that as a matter of policy, other than things that are talk pointy. i think they're concerned they're deadly serious about trying to reduce vaccination rates around the childhood immunization schedule. they can disband asip, they can make it harder to take the money for vaccine for children's fund. there's a lot of things they can do day one that could dramatically lower rates of vaccination for children, and that's what i worry about. that's my concern.

>> do pharmaceutical companies advertising, and it drives me nuts, and you know, i love nightly news, go lester, but if you were to get rid of advertising for pharmaceuticals, i don't know where the advertising would come from, but is it really productive? someone saying it causes people to look at things that they might not otherwise ask their doctor about. i think that's crap. >> i said that too. >> i want the purple pill, and i don't know what it does. they got me wanting the purple pill. what's it do? do you know the purple pill? >> two domains, at a business level, it will reduce revenues from the company's standpoint. from a public health standpoint, and we looked at this at fda many times, the ads drive people into the doctors office with specific complaints, with self-recognition. >> i'm inundated, do you want me

to sing the ozempic song. these overweight people are getting together and marching down the street and looking at each other. >> there's a net public health benefit from the help seeking behavior that people engage in. >> listen to you. >> it's true. we are going to debate whether or not that's powerful enough to justify the advertising. >> all that money. >> but it's going to be very hard for them to regulate those advertisements. >> i used to love the pharmaceutical companies. i'm starting to wonder. i am. >> it's constitutionally protected speech, the advertising, it's going to be hard to say the companies can't do it. >> i'm not saying they can't. as a shareholder, spend it more effectively. >> should shareholders push that or the government. >> not the government. shareholders. >> from a shareholder standpoint, it drives revenue, that revenue goes back into r and d. there is a business intent. no question about that. if you look aside at the public health implications, it gets more people diagnosed notwithstanding the facts it has

burden, they have patients asking for things by name, that they have to dissuade them from. >> the stomach is a gross looking thing. it's a stomach dancing around singing. >> not as gross as the poop in the box. we didn't get the bird flu. we have more questions than you can field. >> it is not happening is it? >> we have a good system for sequencing strains of flu, people who get diagnosed. we sequenced upwards of 75,000 people already this season. if it was circulating we would have detected it. that said, most people believe this likely isn't going to be an event. if it does become an event, we're not well prepared for it. we have done just about everything wrong to prepare for this, not stockpiling the antiviral drugs we would need. we've only stockpiled tamiflu. if you look at the cases

reported two days ago, the journal of medicine, a handful of patients who got very sick got into the lower airway, the virus mutated around tami flu. you worry we don't have the drugs on hand, very low probability of a high impact event we should be preparing for. >> dr. gottlieb, we'll have you back soon thanks. the next session of congress is going to begin tomorrow. we have that going for us, which is nice, and housepeer me sakik johnson will be fighting for his job on day one. more on that battle next. "squawk box" will be coming right back.

congress is back in session tomorrow and lawmakers will hit the ground running with house speaker mike johnson fighting for his job. emily, he's fighting for his job, but he does have the support of incoming president trump. >> you're absolutely right, becky. trump might have given mike

johnson his complete and total endorsement the other week, and yet that doesn't seem to have done the trick. it's just not clear how long it could take johnson to win the gavel. 15 times with kevin mccarthy. once the new congress is going to begin tomorrow at noon, the first thing on hair agenda. nothing else can happen until we have a speaker. at this point, mike johnson can really only lose about one to three republicans before he's going to need to vote again. of course that depends on if you're voting for a person, if you're voting president, that changes the math -- present, that changes the math. johnson needs a majority of everyone who votes for an actual person to be able to get that gavel and that could go on, as we saw last time, for multiple times. at least one republican congressman, congressman thomas massey has already come out saying he won't back johnson. in a lengthy post on x explaining his decision, he criticized johnson's leadership saying quote, it's mike johnson who routinely passes major

legislation, like ukraine, omnibus, with only a minority of republicans, and then relying on most democrats. massey went on to say he also owes his current speakership to the democrats. of course there was that vote to, again, oust johnson and democrats came in to save him. so about a dozen other lawmakers have continued to express some concerns about johnson. we also had congressman chip roy saying he's undecided. he posted on x that change was needed. he's saying that the gop was divided on a last minute cram down to force approval to borrow $5 trillion more without a plan for much less of an actual penny of spending cuts, and then he goes on to say all of which could have been avoided with any serious planning and communication. so criticism there. of course the spending debate that happened back in december, but look, it's not clear at this point, if it's not mike johnson, it's not clear who else would be able to win the speaker's gavel. of course last time the republicans who opposed mccarthy used this speaker vote as an

opportunity to negotiate rule changes and get promises from mccarthy. we'll see if there's a similar tactic here when it comes to johnson and what these members might want and what johnson might be willing to give, becky. >> all right. it's going to be interesting. emily, thank you. emily wilkins. when we come back, tesla expected to roll out delivery numbers today. we'll get a preview of what could be ahead for the ev maker. "squawk box" is coming right back. car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

tesla deliveries are due later today. mark fields, former ford motor company president and ceo, also a cnbc contributor, and mark, what are you anticipating. we talked a little bit earlier with phil lebeau about what to expect. but there's a lot riding on this for the company. >> yeah, i mean, listen, the big question is are they going to be able to eke out some growth. i think you heard the numbers. they have to deliver about 515,000 units in the fourth quarter to get a little bit of that growth. i think they'll do it, right, because the pr value, if you will, of being able to say you've grown for another consecutive year is important for them. if they don't, this is the first year they have a year-over-year decline in total yearly sales. >> and it's happening at a time when tesla shares have taken off. granted, a lot of that is because of the expectation that elon musk's close relationship with president trump could mean good things for the autonomous

point of view. what has to happen in order to really see what's coming next for tesla shares? >> yeah, it's a great point, becky. you've seen the run-up and the anticipation, now it's about delivering. listen, the big question is, has he, you know, alienated his left-leaning consumers with his embrace of trump. at the same token, i think you're seeing in the fourth quarter a little bit of a sugar rush of people rushing to buy evs, potentially before the ev incentives could come off. i think for this year coming up, it's going to be all about introducing new models. i think you're going see them focus a lot on the affordability. the model 3 and model y, you may see lower priced versions either because they have made some improvements in the battery efficiency, the architecture or just decontenting the vehicles. at the same time, i also think, you know, you're going to see

some -- they're going to have to show some progress on their autonomous driving. musk has spoken about that many many times. he introduced his cyber cab last year, and said it was going to come sometime in 2025. and as you know, he has a history of not delivering on those promises, but those two things in particular, i think, are going to be really important for them to deliver on to justify this run-up in the stock. >> mark, can i ask you about a separate question, i don't know how familiar you are with truro, but as someone who ran hertz car rentals, i haven't used truro before, but i know if i go to a hertz place, a hertz stand to rent a car, i'm going to have to show my i.d. i'm going to have to prove i'm at least 25, there's vigorous checks that go through this. i'm asking this of course because of what we have learned today that the vehicles driven both in new orleans and in las vegas in these attacks were both rented on a truro app.

they may or may not be connected, with somebody who's not familiar with how truro works, are you? could you walk us through it? >> i'm not intimately familiar with them. it's all app-based. a lot of it is based on the information they're putting on them. all i know is it's all app based. so you know, a lot of it is based on the information that they're putting on their profiles. and they're trustworthy in doing that. i think it's interesting that both of these vehicles were rented by turo. clearly, turo said they are helping in the investigation. but they are going to up their game in terms of the backgrounds on their customers, but this is never a good thing when your vehicles and your company is in the middle of, you know, a tragic incident like this. but both vehicles being rented through turo, that may be more

than just coincidence. >> yeah, we're waiting to hear more from the investigators on this. it's a different relationship when it's an app. because what they're basically doing is just putting a buyer or seller, or someone who wants to rent a property with someone who has a property, whether that be a car or a house in the case of airbnb, they're also doing an investigation there. the apps have always had a little more arm's length distance between it. if you walk into a hotel, you have to show your i.d. before you can get the room rented there. same story with renting a car through one of the traditional agencies with this. something i've been kicking around. mark, i want to thank you very much for being with us today. >> happy new year, becky. >> happy new year. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, and you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. authorities are still looking for people of interest related

to yesterday's truck attack in new orleans. that's according to the city's police superintendent who spoke with the today show. 15 people were killed when an attacker drove a truck into a crowd of new year's eve party goers on bourbon street. the fbi identified the driver as a u.s. citizen from texas and a u.s. army veteran. he was shot dead by police after the crash. the fbi said other potential improvised explosive devices were found in new orleans' french quarter. president biden said jabar posted videos hours before the attack, saying that he was inspired by the islamic state group and that truck used in the attack also carried an isis flag. futures on the first trading day of the new year, which we always look at january, early january. the first day of january, then the week, then the month itself and try to figure something out. it might have worked, maybe not. let's look at treasuries as

well. those could be even perhaps just as important as anything on the ten year, if it continues to confound the rate cuts coming from the fed. let's get to don chu. all resting on you to get january off on the right foot. >> we're still in that santa claus rally period. we'll talk about those season qualifiers later in the day, i'm sure. but we'll start with a check on cryptocurrency of all places. bitcoin is still under that record high of just under $800,000 per bitcoin. that jump is shifting strategies of microstrategy and coin-based. microstrategy had slid this week, after its scaled down some of its purchases.

but microstrategy and coinbase, both up. analysts say uber will continue to see bookings growth and further penetration in less dense markets. a roughly 60% upside from tuesday's close. we'll finish with defense. rtx is up more than 1% after deutsche bank upgraded it to a buy from a hold with a target price of $140. that's up from 131. lockheed shares are slightly down after deutsche downgraded it to a hold from a buy. concerned about the long term support for the f35 strike jet fighter program. so those shares, keep those eyes on those defense stocks. for more on that, head over to cnbc.com/pro, subscribers get

details from all of those analysts calls. >> did you gain any weight over the holidays? >> i did. i track it specifically like many americans do, over the year and into the new one. i have gained roughly seven pounds in just the last two and a half months. so i've got to get back on the training. >> any resolutions? what do you think we should do? >> i will always say this. it's not so much the carbs. i think i just have to eat better. when i tend to eat, i tend to eat things that i enjoy, and i enjoy them a little bit too much. so this year it's going to be a concerted effort on more fruits and vegetables. i will say it to my kids as well. >> i hate fruits and vegetables. i'm going to ask you or denny. >> i told him. he said he was going to ask him. >> better ask him, because i can't ask her.

>> i got a lot of green juice. >> the problem is you've got to stop everything else. you've got to drink the juice and not eat anything else. >> i will admit this. we grilled. we cooked at home yesterday, and it was a bone-in rib eye. >> no, filets, man. filets. 400 calories versus 1500. don't do it. >> i'm done. >> less than 90 minutes away and from 300 pounds, less than 90 pounds away. i know. from the first wall street opening bell of -- no i'm not 210. >> i wouldn't think. >> 209. >> no you're not. >> oh, yes i am. what about you, ed? >> what about you, becky? >> joining us now, i don't hide anything. i'm right.

it's the desserts. >> absolutely. it's the dessert, it's the entree, it's the salad. >> is the market going to lose weight this year? >> no, i still think the market's in good shape. i'm very optimistic on the earnings outlook, because i'm optimistic for the economy. i think we're going to continue to see better than expected productivity growth. >> how much? 16, 15%? >> more than the other strategists. as a result, i'm looking for the s & p 500 to go up along with earnings rather than valuation. i think it could get to 7,000 by the end of year, but it's not going to be a straight line. i would think in the next few weeks, things are going to be somewhat bumpy. >> you like the economy because it's been going well. do you like anything trump's supposedly going to do? are you worried about anything trump's supposedly going to

do? >> for the last three years we've had the most widely anticipated recession, and it didn't happen. so the economy has proven to be remarkably resilient, and now the fed's not raising interest rates. they're talking about how much they're going to lower interest rates, and the consumers are still in good shape. i'm still working for a living, but a lot of my baby boomer friend are retiring, and sitting on $72 trillion on net worth is what the baby boomers have. they're going to have a negative savings rate and they're going to spend it no matter what. they love higher interest rates, because they get better returns on their assets. >> a.i. factors in. >> i've been talking about the roaring '20s since 2019. i didn't know a.i. was going to be the kind of hit that it's been so far. but a.i. does factor in, as does

robotics, automation. the whole idea, like the 1920s, we're seeing a productivity boom, that increases the standards of living. >> inflation, a slowing economy, neither? what is this? goldilocks, everything is just right? >> goldilocks has kind of been there done it, so i prefer roaring 2020s. the idea is productivity. the productivity is like fairy dust. one is, there's a shortage of skill labor and there's no shortage of new technology, software, hardware, that can augment the productivity of workers. i think we're already seeing that. it's really not a forecast so much as just an extrap lags of what's going on, since 2015, productivity growth has

increased to 2%. so it's quadrupled already. but 2% has been the historic average. we've kind of lowered that, and i think we're going to do 3% in the next few years. >> why do you think we're going to have issues in the first few weeks of the year? >> we always focus on the macro, and monetary fiscal policies. with monetary fiscal policy, you kind of need a neck brace with what they're signaling to do with us. right now, they've kind of semi- pivoted from very doveish, we're going to lower interest rates several times to well, maybe, we need a pause here. i think there's a pause and we're not going to feed the market rate cuts right away. then of course, fiscal policy is very confusing. we've got issues with immigration deportation, issues with inflation, tariffs that

could hurt the economy. people remind me, the 1920s, ended really badly. we're about to see what the impact tariffs are going to have in the economy. so i'm not dismissing the possibility things could go real wrong, but i don't think this is going to be like the end of the 1920s, i think we'll get through this tariff mess in some form. but i think it will take a few months to get a clearer view of fiscal policy, and a clearer view of whether this thin margin that the administration has in congress is going to be enough to get their policies through. >> we've also got to figure out whether adding a trillion dollars of debt. i forget what the length of time is, but it's happening right now. and i don't know, do we ever get to the point where the government needs to pay higher interest rates to keep rolling everything over and then the debt that we're already paying on, interest rates are higher? all of these things seem to --

none of that ever comes home to roost? >> i think in some ways it did last year for three months we had a debt crisis where the bond yield went from 4% to 5% in a very short period of time. i think that was sort of a glimpse of the possibility of a debt crisis. i think we're seeing kind of a repeat of that right now with the bond yield having been at 3.65%. >> but it never gets that serious to you. >> well, no, i think it's an issue. and i think it's a political issue that needs to be resolved in terms of -- >> still 7,000 on the s & p? >> look. i've been doing this for a while. the bears have always pointed out the deficit is a problem. one of these days it will be a problem. i've been saying, i'll worry about the deficit when the bond markets worry about it. so i have to admit, i'm worried about it somewhat. i didn't anticipate that the bond yield would go up when the fed lowered rates, i didn't understand why the fed needed to lower rates based on the

resilience of the economy. >> banking on it. we'll cover it either way. sometimes it's better when it goes down for us. >> waiting for an opportunity to buy too. thanks, ed. when we come back, we're going to talk geopolitics in 2025, with former ambassador to nato, cay bailey hutchson. the new year starting with question marks surrounding russia, ukraine, china and the middle east. stay ahead. much more "squawk box" just ahead. all the buzz around bitcoin isn't just talk anymore crypto has gone mainstream. at itrustcapital, you can buy and sell cryptocurrencies 24/7 with the tax benefits of an ira.

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our next guest joining us the way in on the slate of geopolitical challenges on the way in for the trump administration, including problems in the middle east, attentions with china. let's welcome in kay bailey- hutchison. former ambassador to nato, texas senator. former ambassador, friend to the show. we can swing with the way your titles are going. what do you prefer? ambassador senator? >> oh, joe, hey you is what i usually answer to. >> obviously from texas, everybody answers to that, i think. >> we do.

>> when i said nato, i meetly thought ukraine. i immediately thought of everything that is happening there, and whether the new president really has a chance in your view of doing something with ukraine and russia that's lasting. is it possible he could come up with something, you think? >> yes, i do. i respect general kellogg. i think he has all the right tools. i think it's important that we continue to support and work with ukraine. they are a sovereign nation. president putin from russia has not acknowledged that, and i think we need to keep our word to ukraine. you know, we promised a long time ago, that we would help ukraine if they would give up their nuclear weapons, and we need to make good on that promise and allow really allow ukraine to function again.

>> well, ukraine insists on being in nato to come to some type of agreement. would that ever be palatable to putin? >> well, eventually, certainly ukraine is on the cusp of going into nato. ukraine at this point, i hink we're talking about a security agreement that would assure that when there is a settlement, when there is peace, when there is a negotiation that ukraine will have a security umbrella that would be with a coalition of the willing. it would be many nato countries, including us, of course, but others as well so that we know that putin can never again invade this sovereign nation. >> that probably not going to satisfy putin at this point. i mean he still wants something very specific doesn't he?

kind of a belarus style situation with ukraine? >> exactly. >> because he's expended a lot of money, a lot of casualties. i don't know whether he cares about political capital, but he's all in. and i just, i don't know how if he doesn't accomplish what he wants, i don't know why he'd stop. >> well, he's certainly made the case before trump comes into office that he wants everything that he has invaded to be his. and that is exactly where we have to draw the line. i think we have an example in europe, kosovo, where there is a multilateral coalition that is trying to keep the peace. it's a nato mission. but it is a coalition of the willing. and i think you could have something in these areas that would stop the bloodletting and

allow them to come together in a place where these donbas and crimea have some security neutrality, and then the rest of ukraine can begin to be rebuilt with russian money, by the way. >> i don't know what the answer or the situation in the middle east, i don't know how you'd characterize it. there's syria, and there's a piece in the journal today that says even though president- elect trump doesn't want to get involved, you do not want syria to become a jihaddist state where it would be a breeding ground for terrorists. iran seems to be in a bit of a back on its heels with what's happened recently. how would you approach our relations in the middle east? and obviously israel probably is going to be emboldened by a trump administration, i would think. >> well i think that we have to

really just say outright this is iran. hezbollah, hamas, the houthis, they are iranian proxies. and we have to deal with strength with iran to try to settle much of the middle east. i think the administration was on the right track and i know that we would continue to work with saudi arabia to try to bring israel into a normalization in the middle east, and really take out the iranian threat of missiles that would have nuclear capabilities. >> and do you think in the near term either the united states, israel, or a combination, take some steps to neutralize the capability in iran -- nuclear capability? >> i think that's on the table for sure. because i think iran has been

violating the agreement that we made years ago, and they're violating their word to the europeans who also signed onto the agreement. and i think that yes, that should be on the table. i think certainly if some diplomacy can be opened with iran that would be great. but i'm hopeful but not really thinking that's a possibility. >> just in closing, overall, do you think that a trump presidency is going to -- you know, we've seen his enemies say that he's so mercurial and impulsive that the world's a more dangerous place. we've had his defenders say it was much safer during his last -- not as many hot spots in his, you know, his first four years as president. what do you think the future holds? can you say? >> yes, i think he will make our world much safer. i think the administration is

going to operate on peace through strength. the reagan mantra. and i think that is going -- i think already you're seeing the adversaries like russia and china say, oh, well we're going to rattle our sabres, and we're going to be tough. well, they know they're going to deal with a new administration that is going to be tough and do what it says it's going to do. and i think that will come out as a safer place, because the world today is not safe. >> all right. ambassador, thanks for your time. are you going to -- are you still going to be active in this next administration, do you think madam? >> no, i'm not going to be active in this administration, but i certainly am going to be hopeful and supportive of ways to keep america strong and to work with our adversaries in a

way that they know we mean business and we are going to be a good ally and a feared enemy. >> great. happy new year. thank you madamambassador. we'll see you again soon, senator. >> thank you. >> okay, you're welcome. still ahead this morning, the corporate c suite shuffle. new moves happening at apple, and charles schwab and a board move at morgan stanley. stay here. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc.

coming up, our first economic day da data point of the new year, we're going to look at initial job claims. because it's thursday. not a monday. stay tuned after the break. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

the futures as we approach the jobless claims data, you can see still strong. they were up a little more actually earlier, standing by at the cme in chicago, so far so good for the free market, rick. the numbers. >> yes, these are the first numbers of the year, as you've pointed out. initial jobless claims expected to be in the neighborhood of 221,000, comes in at 211,000. which makes it 9,000 below slightly revised last week. continuing claims. which by the way, last week crossed over 1.9 million last week for the first time since

going back to november of '21, once again for about the forth time, gets revised away. current week, 1,844,000. way on the light side. below expectations, and last week, as i said, originally, 1,910,000, gets downgraded to a whisker under 1.9 million, at 1,896,000. all of these numbers are going to have asterisks, because holiday weeks are going to make these appear a little different, usually a little lower. so we're going to have to wait a week or two, really to get the gps. but you can see that the trends are still in place. maybe the most note worthy place this morning is the dollar index, on a day where interest rates have been moving down is making fresh highs going all the way back to november of 2022. let's call it 26 months. i do believe that the dollar will be a big factor in 2025, as we try to factor in all of

various legislation that may come on the books with the new administration, as far as interest rates go, the 30 year bond, joe, gave us a great signal last couple trading days of last year when it hit a 481, which is a double top on the yield closing basis, and has reversed lower. it was the last maturity to give us such a signal. i really do think some of the high yields at least, temporarily, maybe for a couple of weeks to maybe even the first quarter, may be in place. i wouldn't look for a big downgrade on yields on long term maturities, but i think almost getting to the mid-460s in a tenure, will be the high watermark for a bit as we really try to look at some of the data points and see how much the economy may have lost. if you look toward some of the first fundamental economic releases throughout europe, we continue to see quite a bit of weakness. back to you. >> okay. thanks, rick. we've got a clean slate.

clean slate every year at this time. it doesn't last long. that would screw it up somehow. >> by next week. let's pivot to the broader economy as we start 2025. lawmakers in washington will be forced to tackle the debt ceiling this year. also likely on the docket, a push by the new incoming trump administration to pass its new slate of tax cuts. joining us to talk about these and other big economic issues we're facing, douglas aidan, president of the american action firm, and a former director of the congressional budget office. and david wellings of the brook administration. doug, let's start with you. what are going to be the most trying issues? maybe first what we have to deal with is what happens to the debt ceiling this year and how quickly you think that can get resolved. >> well, i think there are three big ones that are just sitting out there we know we have to get past. one is the debt ceiling.

the second is funding the government for 2025. still haven't done that. and the third will be what happens to the jobs act. those are three very big legislative lifts. i think first will probably be funding the government. they can push the debt ceiling off until late spring, early summer, and probably will. they probably won't get the tax bill done very quickly. i think the early indicater is the speaker election on friday. can they manage that process in a way that quickly elects a speaker, or is it going to be a protracted issue? there's nothing about their attempts in december that leads me to think this white house, house, and senate team is really up yet to the management of these three big issues. they have to figure out how to run the trains. >> you're saying that based on what we've already seen, i guess, just some of the unruly house republicans as we were heading out the end of the last year. >> you had a plan, and the plan

was to sort of have this big omnibus bill that i didn't like, and a lot of people didn't likek but a lot of people wanted it. then the incoming house undercut it. now they've undercut the speaker. i want to see if this group can manage the process of getting these three big issues done, because they have to happen. >> david, doug's right to point out those three big issues, but you can lay on top of that, issues like immigration, tariffs and many others that are out there. so how are you kind of viewing this? what are you watching for? >> i think the first moves are not going to come from congress. they're going can to come from the white house. and the big questions i have are what does president-elect trump do on tariffs? what does he do on immigration? and then, after that, what will they do about taxes? but as doug points out, the tax debate will go on all year. my concern is they'll do things

that hurt the economy first, like tariffs and reducing immigration or throwing a lot of people out of our country, or whatever. that will hurt the economy before the effect of any tax cuts can show up in 2026. i also worry about the possibility -- i mean doug referred to the uncertainty in the house. we seem to be in a period where we can expect a lot of twists and turns, and i don't think chaos and turmoil are good for business. so i'm worried that things will be unsettled for a while until we figure out what are trump's bluffs and hat does he really mean to do? >> that's a good point. the idea that the administration may have to go over the things that they can actually do themselves through presidential actions without having congress sign off on some of those things. some of those might not be as beneficial, and might actually hurt the economy. >> i think david makes a really good point. i would say more broadly that, you know, the economy is in

good shape. growing north of probably 3% as you saw. claims continue to be low. at this point, the economics of the down side, we're more likely to grow slower than faster. the fed may have underestimated the durability of inflation. there's a real chance you have a rocky start to 2025. i just want to point out, i think the notion these tax cuts are going to do a lot for growth is misplaced. the question is what do they do on top of that, and do they have the dislynn to do a real program tax reform? it remains to be seen. >> we had denny here just a little bit ago and he was talking about how productivity is what he thinks will save the markets through all of this. we've had phenomenal productivity growth, he points out since back to 2015. >> that's right. doug is right. the economy is in good shape now. surprisingly good shape.

much better than a lot of us expected. i think the downside risks are that we have some geopolitical turmoil, or as we saw in new orleans, some terrorism. but the upside is we had a period of rather sluggish productivity growth then we had the up and downs of the pandemic, which are hard to read, but for the last five weeks, nonproductivity has been growing higher than 1.5%, which has been sort of the norm, and that's really encouraging. i don't know if it's going to last. these things are not well measured quarter to quarter. we know there was a lot of reorganization of the economy after the pandemic. maybe work from home and flexible work is providing some benefits. maybe this is the early signs of a.i. but if we are on the cusp of

even a small margin, that's good for wages. we can hope that nothing the president does disrupts that trend and some of the deregulation trump is talking about could lead to that, especially if it unleashes some new investment. >> doug as the former head of the cbo, what do you worry about in terms of whether or not we can set a budget and stick to it, and make sure that we can issue treasuries? >> we don't set budgets and we won't stick to it. i'm quite pessimistic about the fiscal outlook for the next couple of years. there's no evidence from his first term in office that the president has any deep commitment to fiscal discipline. you know, they can control the outcome with the reconciliation bill and all of that looks bad for deficit outlook. i think that's a real problem. there's nothing heartening about the current situation. we hopefully can just get past the first two years have a mid- term election and have some folks that are serious about

controlling the outlook. >> your concern just in terms of the fiscal responsibility, how do you think that impacts the markets? that's been where we've watched rates climbing even as the fed was cutting rates. >> right. we're watching it in realtime. you know, long rates are not coming down, they've gone up since the fed started to cut. that's some combination of expectation of continued higher inflation than was originally expected, which is consistent with excessive fiscal deficits at full employment, which we've seen already and there's no reason to be doing. it's bad for the outlook. i think we're already seeing the early signs of it. and i don't see any real evidence among the newly elected house senate white house of a commitment to changing course in any deep way. some lip service now that we didn't see a couple years ago. but no real desire to take on issues to change the outlook. >> david, i'll just ask you very quickly -- go ahead. >> i agree with what doug said.

the bond vigilanties still seem to be sleeping. there's no political pressure to do anything about the debt, and there's no pressure from the bond market. so why do you expect congress to do anything? that's the problem. >> although if inflation is higher than anticipated, if it's really stubborn or starts to pick up, that's going to be an issue for the fed, and if we think the fed is changing its tune right now, that will be the one issue that really sets everybody on edge. >> it will raise rates, yes. but will congress think oh, my now we have to do something about social security and medicare and raise taxes instead of lower them? i wouldn't bet on that. >> david, doug, thank you. >> you're welcome. happy new year. >> all right. before we go to break, going back to our conversation about eating and gaining weight, and all that stuff, i'm not going to ask you anything. >> don't. >> someone wrote in, nothing would be more tiresome than eating and drinking if god had

not made them a pleasure as well as a necessity at the same time. you know what that makes me think of? ozempic. it takes away, then all you're doing is maintaining your existence. that's why i'm never going to take it. the thrill of eating and drinking, i don't ever want to feel that way, do you? >> no, that's a really good point. >> and he was brilliant, really he or she, really pc aren't i? coming up, the sweet shift that investors need to know about as 2025 begins. we're going to talk about some changes at apple and other firms, right? >> yeah. >> i'm glad that it's not -- t'not a natural -- >> but what if all you're doing is maintaining your existence? >> it's what happens if you get sick. >> stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the futurers this morning, sharply in the green. right now, you're talking about the dow, futures up 350 points

to start the new year. the nasdaq up by close to 250. we are coming off of a 23% gain for the s & p 500 last year. that was the index's second consecutive gain of more than 20%. that's only happened three other times. the most recent occurrence was in the late '90s. we are tracking some leadership changes at top companies as 2025 kicks off. james gorman becoming disney chairman and ted pick succeeding gorman as morgan stanley's ceo. gorman is leaving to become chairman at disney to help find someone for bob iger. so very weird. apple is getting a new cfo. charles schwab is changing its ceo. we had the guy in. amazon calling corporate workers back to the office for five days a week.

paul is professor of corporate communications at dartmouth. before we talk about the individual -- and professor it's good to see you. before we talk about the individual instances we've talked about, what's the big trend going to be? five days? is it ever possible we go to four days? i'm asking for a friend. >> i think so. i think that could happen. i can't imagine five days for everyone into the deep future. it just doesn't seem like that's possible anymore. especially the younger generations really value their time, and there seems to be, you know, no loss in productivity. i don't understand some of the moves by companies like at&t or amazon to try to bring people back for five days. that seems like time gone by, really. it doesn't mean people aren't working. they're just working from home and trying to capture some time for themselves and work at their own pace, which is what most people want in life. >> so it's the young people

that are sort of trying to appreciate their time. david, that's l they have is time. the old people don't have much time left, we don't care about working five days. everybody's got to come back to work so we can all get bird flu and then come back home again, i think, paul. >> makes a lot of sense to me. i hope that doesn't happen to tell you the truth. even during covid i went to work every day. we had access to our office. and i just feel comfortable in my office. i think younger people figure out a way to balance work and their home life. and with young children around, it makes a lot of sense to give people that freedom. honestly, i don't see any loss in productivity in the companies i've worked and for. they just try to figure out a three or four day workweek. even one day at home seems to

work for people very, very well. >> that would be nice. >> that can't go back to five. >> i got grief last week for complaining about getting up at 3:30. i would love another, just to sleep in is such a beautiful thing occasionally, paul. so ted gorman, or i'm sorry, james gorman leaves morgan stanley to become chairman at disney, just to help disney find someone to replace bob iger. >> yeah. much needed, by the way. i think bob iger has well past his sell-by date, if you ask me. and james gorman did a good job with the smith barney deal, and really turned that company around. that is a great choice for them and an opportunity to really find the right person, which they have not been able to do before. and they're leaving morgan stanley in good hands with pick. he's already the ceo. it's not like there's going to be a huge loss there. but he's a really seasoned guy, who i think can get the job

done on the board and everything there. that's a great choice. >> make a point about apple that, you know the new cfo, as he approaches 65, is apple really going to start -- 65 seems like so, you know 1900. that's not the time when people leave anymore. that would mean tim cook's going to need to have a successor eventually too, is that happening? >> i mean, it has to happen. i don't think he's the guy that's going to succeed him. i don't know if i would pick a cfo for that job. but he's getting long in the tooth too. he's been there for a very long time. i'm sure they have a succession plan. if they don't, the board is not doing their job properly. but i don't see the cfo choices is the one that's going to be the next ceo. i could be wrong. i also thought for many years apple has got to start a

decline of some sort, but now you see they have this whole thing in china going on, where they're having lower price points. they seem to be on a roll again globally. at least for a cfo perspective, he's a good guy. did the financial planning. but i don't see any movement on the ceo job right now. i could be wrong, but i don't see that. >> just back to disney for a second. finally, is any media company going to be easy to manage in 2025, 2026, 2027? it's like speaker of the house. you know, mike johnson's going to stay speaker of the house because no one else wants it. >> yeah, media's a tough industry to be in. but i think they found that right balance. particularly at disney. they still have theme parks plus they have an incredible franchise with movies that they seem to have gotten it more

right than most. let's put it that way. and yeah, i think these media companies have kind of figured out a way around some of the problems that were true 10, 15 years ago. so i do see the balance coming in, particularly for disney. they're in great shape compared to other companies. you look at some of the other companies and wonder how they're going to succeed, but not disney. they just need the right ceo, which to me, iger is not the guy. they need someone new. >> paul, good to have you on this morning. thank you. >> good to see you. happy new year. >> you too. as kate moss famously said, nothing tastes as good as skinny feels. >> probably right. >> i know someone who swears by that, and she tells me that all

the time and i don't listen. that's true though. >> yeah. been a while since i remember that. >> cantino says it's not true. you're living it rob. you're right. all right when we come back, what to watch in big tech in 2025. will this year be another big one for the megacaps? that conversation is next when "squawk box" returns. oh, hey, bud! we really needed this rain. right? [car splashing rain water] agentforce helps restaurants prevent dining disasters. paddle on over! it's what ai was meant to be. we got you, brother.

nvidia shares shot up more than 170% last year. that's just one highlight from the mega caps in 2024. for a look at what's ahead this year, we want to welcome in gene munster. gene, let's talk this through. up incredible amounts for this year, biggest market cap out there. what's the anticipation for this coming year for 2025? do you think that this money is still going to be good? still going to be the huge demand? can they continue to rake in the cash that they've been able to do at this point? >> specific to nvidia, yes, i think this is going to continue. i think that the growth rates are going to remain higher for longer, specifically the focus is on calendar '26, what that growth is going to be.

the street's expecting low 20% growth. i think it's going to exceed 30% growth. so this still trades at a reasonable multiple of 25x multiple and kind of plays to what i think is going to be the chorus in 2025. obviously nvidia being at the center of a.i. trade. i think we still have two solid years left of strong tech trade here based on a.i. i just want to quickly fill in the point, becky, that probably seems out of touch with reality, just given the 87% move we've seen in the nasdaq over the past couple of years. how is it possible that this can continue? i come back to, for most people the concept of a.i. is a buzz word. and i put in the context that if you look at chatgpt, the daily users, it's only about 150 million. that compares to 2.5 billion google users. we're still early in this, and i think it's going to continue

to pull in the broader tech market and big tech higher in 25. >> it does raise questions about what nvidia is going to do with all of that cash its bringing in. what do you think the best answer would be? >> i think probably return it to shareholders. share buy backs. i mentioned that valuation at 25 x, it's quite compelling. they don't need to make any acquisitions at this point. i think it's probably on that typical well traveled path of buy back, share dividends, we probably will see something along those lines and we almost have to in calendar year 25 for nvidia, specifically. >> you don't own nvidia, why not? >> personally, i don't own nvidia, our firm does. the reason why we own it is at the end of the day, i think the obvious trade is still in play here. i think there's a lot of anticipation that this company's growth is going to

slow dramatically, but some people think it may even decline in calendar 26. but as i mentioned, i think we're still early in the a.i. build out face, so that's why deep water owns it. >> but you do personally own apple and tesla. why didn't you? >> if i was going to force rank those three, i don't do it from the highest level. i have very few companies in my personal account. i don't think it's necessarily an indictment against nvidia, it's more to my conviction around apple and tesla. >> those are the ones you own too. >> yeah, for the long term. and i have the benefit to own things for five plus years. i think it's worth mentioning, we'll get the tesla numbers here momentarily. i do think tesla is due for a pull back here. we've had some incredible, of course, $700 billion in gain over the last three months in

the market cap. that's just not sustainable. but i think what they're doing around a.i. is going to ultimately drive the market cap higher. and when it comes to apple, i think the iphone is going to grow closer to 8% for this coming cycle and expectations are for 3%. that's where soon. folks, that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here here tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." happy new year, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl has the morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to start the trading year, as we say. as you can say, we are looking for a nicely higher open. that's where our road map begins this morning. markets are in rally mode to start the new year of trading. this after stocks did finish what is the best two-year stretch we've seen since the late '90s, even despite a couple of