oversold, due for a bounce. >> jimmy should have said short mtm, bail. >> he said his piece. >> coupang. >> starbucks turn around happens in 2025. >> i want to get ♪ courtney, thank you very much. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the first big data point for 2025, it's a strong one. weekly jobless claims hitting a multi-month low. that has rates moving up. and our guest says it's keeping the economic expansion on track. so why then does he still expect four rate cuts this week. we'll ask. elon musk says don't just buy cars they sell. stock down 7% in first-ever drop in annual deliveries. rival byd deliveries were great. we'll debate it. this name may be unloved. it has lots of catalysts.

there's a couple clues in there. tweet me if you think you know it. we'll get to it later on. today's markets started off strong, are looking weak this afternoon. a lot of people are worrying about the tone this could set for the year. >> santa claus rally is nop existent. santa claus fade. first two trading days of the new year make up the bottom end of that santa claus rally. it's not looking very good right now. any way, as kelly points out, we were green to start the day and actually decently and given back the gains and are now in negative territory for all three major indexes. dow down 275 points, two third of 1% decline. s&p 500 is at 5844, down 37 points. it's roughly similar percentage decline there. and by the way, just to kind of look at things, we were up 54, up actually 54 points at the highs and down roughly 47 points at the low. so tilting towards the bottom end of that range. the nasdaq composite, the tech

heavier side down .75% to 19,166, 143 point loss there. couple macro thing to keep a close eye on right now. oil prices are continuing their march higher, up 2.25%. $73.31. they've been doing it consistently over the course of the last few weeks. we'll keep an eye on whether or not that trade continues higher. gas prices are certainly -- another thing to watch is bitcoin prices, starting off the year in the green, but maybe not markedly so. we're at 96,624. highs about 108,000 per bitcoin. so keep an eye on those upward moves in bitcoin and whether or not that's consolidation stays where it is or we get a breakout one way or the other. three interesting stocks to watch today. number one on the communications side, beldon, norwegian cruise line and uber technologies.

each of these three stocks has been added to the buy list. analysts and strategists to put out the forecasts, top picks. these three made the picks for goldman. happy new year. i'll send things back over to you. >> i'm nervous. dom, i remember 2022 when we opened lower and dropped all the way through october. >> everyone is watching the seasonal effects the santa claus rally, january barometer, the january effect, whether january is just a generally more positive month. but all of those seasonal factors maybe a lot of traders don't put as much emphasis on them a lot of traders do. they watch the seasonality, maybe this is indicative of what we could see near to medium term. those jobless claims did drop to an eight-month low last week we learned this morning. continuing claims improved as well. the overall number of people on unemployment is 1.8 million. my next guest says resilience in the labor market is keeping the

economic expansion on track. so why does he still see the fed cutting several times this year? barry knapp, do you put a lot of stock in how the market does day one? >> well, i think that most important thing going on from a market's perspective is the treasury market, which rallied the last few days of the year, but i think that was solely a function of expensive financing over the turn to maintain shorts. there's no doubt that one of the highest conviction trades for the beginning of the year is treasury yields going up that this idea that we're struggling with debt management, we're struggling with debt and deficits. so you have a little cover late in the year but then people were able to reset shorts. so i think more so than even this mark down of the atlanta fed gdp now, the real near-term

risk for equity markets, it was evident late last year in the performance of things like small caps and equal-weighted s&p is further extension of the move higher in rates. you know, we're 10-year tips to get to 2.5%. 10-year nominal rates to approach 5 back in that high that we made in '23, surely the equity market is going to struggle mightily and probably have a 10% pullback or so. i think for me that's the most important thing going on in the markets right now is what's happening in the treasury market. >> yeah. so basically you think higher rates are a head wind, even though -- like you look back to the late '90s, analogous period a lot of people are try drauing between now and then, you had long tes backing up 4.7%, roughly speaking, something like that. it wasn't a head wind, almost seemed like a positive sign of excess in the economy or something like that. i don't know. and by the way, what about the idea, what if rates don't go up

this year? should we get about as good of data point we could get on jobless claims, right? you look into next year and wonder is the economic data surprise to the upside? the deficit numbers could come in a little bit. i don't know. >> yeah. i think one of the big differences between the late '90s and now is that gingrich and clinton went to war. they shut down the government the end of '95 and '96. then we got the deficit much better trajectory. in fact, we ran surpluses late that decade. that's, you know -- i'm confident that they're going o make progress on that debt issue. but they've been left just a real, you know, very difficult situation with the excessive amount of bill issuance, the overhang of the treasury -- or the fed still owing 6.5 trillion of treasury. there's no easy way to look

through this. you saw on new year's eve dr. slok put out one of his daily notes, the term premiums moved up 75 bases points. i think for it to go to where it used to be, the median level pre-qe, it has to go up another 75 bases points. still we have some real serious head winds in the treasury market. on balance, treasuries are still overvalued even at these levels and they're not going up because of growth, kel. they're going up -- you can see this in the swath spread widening, term premium going up, they're going up because of the supply issue. >> yeah. it's kind of poignant or perfect to have you on today, kind of casts a little bit -- i don't want to call it a bearish tone for the year, but when i read the surveys that say, fund managers -- i don't think it was -- i don't know who it was, 70% of people are bullish on the stock market for 2025. and it is reminiscent of a couple years ago when it was 100% conviction on the recession call that also turned out the be

wrong. so, you just wonder -- the way we're starting, the lack of the santa claus rally, i'm bullish in the long run but all seem to be a sign in the near term. >> technology innovation, adoption really accelerated late last cycle. i think the pandemic further accelerated that process. i do -- we do have -- we have a big bounce in business confidence, capital spending plans have improved. so there's lots of ways we could get to a better, more broad economic outcome this year, including, you know, increasing issuance of longer term treasuries but the fed cutting more than they had planned to, which would more equally distribute policy tightening from between small businesses and large businesses, topic you and i have discussed. >> totally. >> almost every time i've been on for six, nine months. >> barry, let me just ask -- >> lot of ways to get there.

but between now and then we have this big issue with debt management and this big overhang in the treasury market. >> i can't wait to see what the new treasury secretary plans on that front seat. i was just going to say, so, people are listening and say you sound hawkish on rates, sound positive on productivity and business confidence and all that. where do you see the four rate cuts coming from then in 2025 from a negative economic event? >> well, first of all, we made some progress on the housing portion of inflation. so i do think that will push down the core a little bit and take a little heat off the fed. i think the fed's forecasts are really a little bit off base. but, we'll get a little bit of relief on the inflation side. i still don't think we're going back to the fed's target, but some relief there. i also think small business employment is much weaker than the headline monthly payroll numbers imply and that will become increasingly apparent when we get the bench mark revision in the beginning of the year. and what i ultimately think the

fed and treasury are going to agree on is that the way the fed conducted policy with jacking short rates up but only passively unwinding their balance sheet disproportionately delivered the ease to small businesses, basically bore all the burden of tighter policy and large businesses because of this negative term premium, ability to finance out the curve, benefitted from the fed's policy. so i think they're going to come in to more balance on that. issues more longer term securities but powell cuts more than he would have otherwise then we get a much more equitable policy distribution across small businesses, large businesses, households that own assets and those that just live paycheck to paycheck. >> sure. >> and in that way, we can rebalance the economy and maybe even see small caps finally perform better. >> oh, no, longer short-term rates, higher long-term, small

caps, anything that's contrary onhas to be right. barry, really appreciate your time. thank you for joining us as always. >> all right, kel. >> barry knapp. tesla's shares are down about 7% after reporting its first-ever annual drop in deliveries. came in at 1.79 million from 1.81 the prior year. but my next guest is also more focussed on what happens in the full self-driving front and tesla, they have a few things to work out there as well. he has a hold on the stock and $360 price target. for more on what to expect, let's bring in william stein. will, great to see you again. by the way, anything with the explosion in las vegas that's relevant to the stock before we get into things here? >> that's just a topic that i'm not really sure how to address or to understand the potential impacts. so i'm not going to touch that one. >> oh, for sure. the only subsequent follow-on question is there political risk in the stock now because musk himself is such a target? >> you know, again, i don't

think i've written anything about that. i'm not sure exactly how to assess it. so i do think -- and i've written about how the rise in the stock price since approximately, you know, late october/november time frame is very much linked to musk's relationship with trump. and i think that's been a big driver of the optimism, not necessarily something that we can easily articulate as to how that relates to fundamentals. but, the optimism in the stock i think is very much linked to his political relationship with trump. >> yeah. so it's political stuff in the stock one way or the other here. so you had -- you have a hold on the stock. what were your expectations for the annual delivery number and what did you think of the number they came out with? >> came a couple percentage points short of consensus. a little bit more -- little bigger miss relative to our expectations, but this is not, to us, a massive factor in the valuation of the stock.

we value tesla based on a discounted cash flow where the future cash flows of all of the businesses are really what drives the valuation here, not, you know, whether they beat or miss by 10 or 20,000 vehicle units in any given quarter. this is not a significant factor in our valuation methodology. >> oh, of course. but i think the whole street implicitly understands whatever the dpand for tesla today has a lot to do with the demand for them will be down the road and again, how -- if you think that literally the consumer auto ownership story does not matter and this is all just a binary on robo taxi, i guess that's a different story. >> i think they both matter, right? to be clear, the deliveries they -- the deliveries they post and are able to make to buyers are certainly important. there's also a lot of sentimental movement here, right? this was like a 2% or less

maybe -- i forget exactly, maybe 1.5% miss on deliveries for a quarter of the year. does that alone drive 6, 7% unwinding the stock price? that's, you know, i would argue there's more in to it, people perhaps exaggerate the meaning of these things and just sort of -- that momentum gets rolled forward a little bit. you know, i think perhaps our latest review of fsd revealing some still weak areas of the technology may be a part of the factor here as well. >> i mean, i would be happy to play up the significance of this because to me it actually is quite telling, especially on the way that byd comes out. i think they regained the crown from tesla as the biggest ev seller maybe the second time now. so tesla, you have three model. you have a sedan, you have an sufficient, you have the cybertruck out there. that's fine. you have chinese competition, who has dozens of models,

innovates way more than you do, is less expensive in many ways for the consumer, is making in roads all over china, was the star of europe and china, star of the european auto show last fall. i mean, that's a lot of competition to be up against. >> certainly. i think this is why there's such a heavy focus on china for tesla and elon musk personally that focus on the innovation there as the sort of gold standard for how they need to comp globally is really important to musk and to tesla. and i think we're going to continue to see innovation from the company try to meet the pace of what hey see in china, much more so than what they see in the west, which is i think far more challenged from an innovation broadly speaking but also specifically as it relates to full-self driving. >> right. so what's -- are we -- we can't get the compact model at this point, which i think is a small car, couple of seats.

we're waiting. we're waiting. and we're waiting and that's supposed to be a game changer going up against the pace of chinese innovation? and the overproduction in china as well, so symptomatic of how china rose to economic power. their cars are cheap to make. they export them all over the world. they're producing more than they consume. how is tesla supposed to compete with that? >> well, tesla is an extremely innovative company. and you know, i wouldn't count them out. in particular, in the west, and in the united states specifically, there's some protection, right? last time i checked there aren't that many chinese cars sold here. so he's going to continue to innovate in a way that will make his evs, and i think, eventually fs-d really stand out in the west. there's going to be more of a challenge in china. and we'll see how that place out. >> yeah. i think that it's one thing to succeed in a market that's highly protected and another to succeed in the global marketplace against chinese overproduction. i think even doesn't the ceo of

ford drive a chinese ford in the u.s.? >> i read that article. that's sort of typical aspect of being a ceo, you know, trying to test out the competition and see what they're like. that did get quite a lot of attention. and i noticed it as well. this is a long-term threat for sure to tesla and to frankly other aspects of my coverage in the world of semiconductors, there are emerging chinese competitors that -- that have an opportunity to take share from the companies that we all know. >> that's a great point and one to pick up on in the future. for now, will, thanks. we appreciate your time today. >> thank you. >> will stein of truist. speaker johnson has trump's endorsement, but with the raiser thin republican majority heeding the gavel is not a given.

what it could mean for trump's trade agenda. and second mystery chart of the day, second one, it's a bonus. you heard of buying picks and shovels of gold rush. ceo of an under the radar energy play that's up 25% since the election. "the exchange" is back after this . >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

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welcome back to "the exchange." republicans are hours away from taking full control of both chambers of congress for the first time since 2019. first thing on the agenda is electing a house speaker. last time around it took 15 ballots across four days and the stakes are higher as gridlock could threaten the start of trump's second term. emily wilkins is in washington with the very latest. >> reporter: you know, despite a strong endorsement from president trump, mike johnson is likely going to be looking at a fight for his gavel because if all lawmakers are in attendance tomorrow and they all vote for someone, it would only take two lawmakers to deny johnson that gavel and, as you mentioned, we already have at least one republican, congressman thomas massey who said he's not going to vote for johnson. he spelled it out in a lengthy x post. he explained that he was upset with johnson's leadership, saying that, quote, he already

demonstrated this month but in december that he won't tell the president what is achievable and what is not achievable in the house and he lacks the situational awareness himself to know what can pass and what cannot. now, a handful of lawmakers are undecided at this point. that includes representatives chip roy, ralph norman, victoria sparts but some who voted against johnson in a challenge to his speakership last may are now changing their tune. we saw today ohio rep warren davidson saying in an x post that, quote, president trump wants speaker johnson and to quote general patton a good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week. and kelly, as you noted, the stakes indeed are high. any lawmaker who blocks the speaker, they're delaying progress on their own republican agenda, that of course, includes major package on energy policy and border security plus, as of yesterday, that clock is ticking again on the debt limit. kelly? >> good point. emily for now, thanks. emily wilkins.

the fight over the speaker is one of many items on the list this year for washington to tackle. nippon steel sent revised bid for u.s. steel offering u.s. government some veto power and president biden has until january 7th to reconsider the deal. panama hikes fees for the waterway. voicing support for the h 1-b visa program. here to drill down on all of those issues, carlos gutierrez, former commerce secretary. >> pleasure. nice to be here. thank you. >> do you want to offer any context -- some weren't sure if trump was referring to the h-2b program, either way, he could have gone full maga, the issue of speaker and immigration, he seems to be siding the other way. >> it's an interesting point. if you think about the america-first doctrine, the question, of course, is what is

in america's interest, the best interest. the h1-b program is in our best interest. do we want the world's b.s. est talent? yes. opponents to immigration said it's not fair because we're taking high skilled people from countries. well, we're thinking about america first. i think it's very consistent. we're only talking about 65,000 visas out of potentially 30 million in that category. so, look, the analogy of a sports team is very appropriate. do you want the best people on your team to begin to continue to win? yes, we do. so, i just think this is an objective issue that should be thought about objectively and not emotionally. >> so, i thought it was interesting on the panama canal. you think he might have some basis here for the criticism. talk about that a little bit. >> yeah, i think so. when the treaty was signed in 1977, it was a different world. i don't think anybody could foresee back then that we could

be in a geopolitical rivalry and economic rivalry with china. even in 1999, when the treaty took effect. so it's a different world. and i think it's -- i don't think it's unreasonable to demand that whatever happens in the panama canal does not go against the interest of u.s. that is not an unreasonable demand or request. and so i think the president is right. you know, it's not what's happening today. there is no evidence that there are -- there's a military presence in the panama canal or in panama. but the question is, what will happen in five, ten, 20 years? the relationship with china and panama is really just started in 2017 when china broke diplomatic ties with taiwan and opened up diplomatic relationships with the people of the republic of china. so we have to see it in that concept. >> in that context and as you

mentioned this chinese company hutchinson from hong kong operates two of the five ports in the panama canal, what should the u.s. do? take a tough line and say that ought to be die vested? >> well, you're right. hutchinson has two ports hong kong of the five. and everything to this day suggests that they are abiding by the rules. they operate the port. obviously they don't own it. so i'm not sure that that's an issue, but i think we have to make sure that the guidelines, that the requirements, look at what could happen in five years n ten years, in 15 years. operate three ports, all five ports? we look towards the future but, you know, that's not an issue right now who operates the port. but, we need to think about where does it go from here. >> yeah. >> we need to think about the future. >> so, speaking on that point, are you concerned about the direction that mexico is headed

in, kind of broadly speaking between these issues, these ties with chinese, between the security situation at the border, kind of some of the problems it's causing down in the southern part of the u.s. they do have a new administration, but a lot of this has been festering for 10, 20 years now? >> yeah. i think this is something that we need to take up with mexico, not with china. and again, i think it comes down to mexico, you're our neighbor. you shouldn't want something that impedes our national interests, that goes against our interests. regrettably, a lot of what china does, a lot of what they have done, goes against our interests. and that's something that mexico should be able to recognize. the question, of course, is so what do we do? what kind of negotiation do we put in place? what kind of an agreement do we put in place? i think it will have to be very selective, by industry, company by company, but it's the right time to bring this up because we

need to be looking at what are the longer term effects. what could happen in the future. >> yeah. secretary gutierrez, thank you for your time today and for giving us a sense of where things might be headed this year. we appreciate it. >> thank you. appreciate it. coming up, we mentioned tesla earlier down 7%. it's also down for a fifth-straight day now and a nearly 20% cumulative drop since christmas. after the break, we'll look at what today's delivery numbers mean for the robo taxi race this year. as we head to break, here's a look at the s&p sliding again after posting its first four-day losing streak to end the year since 1996. that nearly 3% drop between christmas and new years is the worst end to a year since at least 19 a 1952 according to bespoke. we're back after this.

♪ welcome back to "the exchange." here is your cnbc news update. the fbi says they've recovered three phones and two laptops linked to the u.s. army veteran who drove a truck into a crowd in new orleans on new year's day, killing 15 people. in a news conference updating the investigation, the agency said the driver, jabbar had acted alone.

meanwhile, the fbi said it expanded the evidence search in the las vegas cybertruck explosion to colorado. federal agents went to a colorado springs neighborhood earlier this morning believed to have ties to the man who rented the cybertruck. the fbi said there was no connection between the two attacks. and president biden is set to issue an executive order to permanently block new offshore oil and gas development in some coastal waters off the u.s. sources tell bloomberg the order could come within a few days and unlike other executive actions that can be reversed, biden's order is based off a 72-year-old law that makes it difficult to revoke. kelly, back to you. >> pippa, thanks. 2024 was a breakout year for robo taxis. waymos in particular. that's expected to continue in 2025 as we await a bigger push from tesla into the space. pushing pressure on uber. deirdre bosa has more in "tech check".

>> setting uber up as the early battleground stock of 2025, already under pressure in 2024 over fears that robo taxis will disrupt its business model, the development of self-driving fleets is only set to accelerate in 2025. now uber bulls argue those fears are overblown. it's entrenched network makes attractive partner for robo taxis. offering fleet management or combination of human and robot drivers to boost reliability. recent actions from alphabet subsidiary argue otherwise. it's increasingly leaving uber behind partnering with a fleet management startup in miami, a local taxi company in tokyo. it's partnership with uber in austin and atlanta looking more like the exception, not the rule. tesla's robo taxi vision meanwhile doesn't rely on any partners. while it still has major hurdles, there's been progress on full-self driving technology or fsd. a chart shows a 1,000 fold improvement in fsd's

disengagement ratio last year from version 12.1 to 13. travis has also weighed in, the former ceo and co-founder of uber whom we really haven't heard from publicly since he stepped down in 2017. here he is on what he would be doing if he were still running the company. >> oh, man. we could take the whole hour on this one. i'll keep that one short. of course we're doing the autonomy thing. i'll put that aside. i think elon will take care of that at this point. >> essentially conceding here, kelly, tesla has won since uber sold that business. kelly, too, wall street very divided to kick off 2025. you have goldman adding it to its conviction list while jpm downgrades it because it believes in this threat from robo taxis. >> the comments from kalanick is interesting. is he still associated with the company? >> he is not. he is running his own startup, ghost kitchen. we hadn't heard from him since

he left back in 2017. he said many years ago. i think about this all the time that self-driving cars were an existential threat for uber but when he said that, it was still so far off, there were so many broken promises and it had underdelivered for so many years, the promise of self-driving cars. but it rings differently in 2025 after we've seen the progress over the last year especially. >> it still seems like it could be a huge opportunity if they do it the right way. but it's very, very early on. deirdre, thanks very much. we appreciate it. deirdre bosa. coming up, natural gas prices soared 40% since the election, around a two-year high but nowhere as near as high during the energy crisis two years ago. global vice chair suggests the lmg boom could rival the chip boom in terms of size. how should investors position? no one guessed the mystery chart. it's up 25% since the election. and it's a name serving nearly

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♪ welcome back to "the exchange." ukraine officially halted the flow of russian gas to europe yesterday, after a five-year agreement between the two countries expired. and u.s. fuel is expected to start filling some of the gap, that's creating in european energy supplies. prices have spiked here in the u.s., especially after predictions of an unusually cold january in the east, oh, boy. but they remain far lower than in 2022 amid expectations of a production boom under the trump administration. my next guest has a hand in all the natural gas supply chain and their shares were up 40% last year. here to talk about the setup for 2025, chart industry ceo jill. it's great to have you here, jill. welcome. >> thank you for having me today. it's great to be here. >> can you explain the role your company plays in the supply chain? >> absolutely. we play anywhere from

traditional energy to lng, hydrogen, helium, et cetera. and in lng, we serve four main aspects ranging from liquefaction, storage and transport, infrastructure the aftermarket service and repair. >> you had a great year last year, up 40%. one of the strategists on this program earlier this week said your company is one of the top picks for 2025. what is your expectation of what kind of production boom we are likely to see in the near term? >> yeah. we're already seeing quite a bit of lng activity. that's not only in the united states but globally. what we have seen in the past few months is an increased toward mod lairty, meaning that you can actually liquefy the molecule and do it in a way that you don't have to have a large, big project without a lot of cap x associated with it. so you can actually do a train that is one to two mtpa per year, get that started in supplying liquefaction and lng to the market. so we've seen in the last couple

of months an increase in orders related to lng liquefaction, ranging anywhere from first gas, corpus christi stage 3, ips amar process technology to our recent order from woodside and beck tell to woodside, louisiana, lng facility that will come on online between april 2029. >> five projects that could come on line the next year. first export was only in 2016. gone from first shipments to biggest in the world as of 2023 and now that capacity will grow by another 70%. so people in the commodity, of course, have to figure out what that's going to mean for the price. but i can see for a business like yours the more production the more capacity that's happening, the better that is. >> it's a great thing. the energy intensity the need for energy security, independence is something that serves us very well as a business and specific to lng,

not just on the export side of the house but also on the receiving side. so iso containers, fueling stations, utilization at the receiving end is something we serve with our lng equipment for infrastructure specifically. the other thing i would add with respect to our business is that we're seeing with customers that have existing ground field lng export facilities is they want to produce more to get more out of the existing facility and bringing in equipment with more efficiency into those production facilities allows them to do exactly that within their existing permits. >> so what other changes should we expect in the next few years? as there is this kind of flurry of activity. >> yeah. i think what you're going to see is continued global demand for lng. it's clearly part of what you would deem to be the energy transition but also something that is very cost effective in scaled globally today. so i think you're going to see continued enhancement in development in existing facilities. you'll see continued move to mod

modularity and the growth and demand for small scale and floaters. the idea that lng will be a key part of the energy situation today but also the energy transition as we move toward increasing demand for energy related to ai, related to the need to get off of russian gas, et cetera. >> right. when you think of lng, you think electrification basically here in europe and certainly worldwide. jill, it's a pleasure to check in with you and thanks for breaking it down. hope to check back in soon. >> thank you for having me. speaking of gnat gas, half-time josh brown has a new name and he just revealed it last hour. >> eqt is about to break out. every technician is talking about it because it's bumping up against this 48 resistance level, hasn't quite punched through yet. it's one of the only names right now amongst large cap u.s.

stocks that is within spitting distance of a new 52-week high because of this flush that we've had in december, it's in a sector that really hasn't done anything in a long time. it's one of the better fundamental stories in that sector. >> and now it's all the buzz. the shares are up more than 20% since the election. and we'll be speaking with eqt ceo toby rice tomorrow. the country's largest nat gas producer. look forward to that on "power lunch" at 2:00 p.m. eastern. nat gas, i like to say, is the new oil. we're back after this. all the buzz around bitcoin isn't just talk anymore crypto has gone mainstream. at itrustcapital, you can buy and sell cryptocurrencies 24/7 with the tax benefits of an ira. that's right, with an itrustcapital ira, you can defer taxes until retirement

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welcome back to "the exchange" where we see red arrows to kick off this new trading year, not major but significant enough. about two thirds of a percent decline, little more for the nasdaq, little less for the russells and rates could be a culprit here, 457. upward pressure after the strong jobless claims this morning. let's check on apple as well. in terms of barometers this stock is having a rough start to the year. down 3% and on track for worst

day since early august. no particular news event. tesla down 7% on the delivery figures for the rest of the mag seven, a mixed bag to start the year. nvidia is positive by 1.4%. meth ta up 1.3. alphabet amazon fractionally lower. microsoft down 1.75%. callaway shares are around 8.76 and now enjoying their best day with this believe it or not since april of 2020. coming up, we'll take one last look at our mystery chart, our analyst says it's financially robust with a low multiple and clear catalyst. 2025 will be an interesting year for this name. i can promise. we'll reveal it next.

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♪ welcome back. time for our last mystery chart reveal. and ladies and gentlemen, it's comcast. our very own parent company, for now. a top pick for 2025, saying it made the unlovered but there are several clear catalysts ahead. let's hear what ellen gold has to say about that, managing director at lube capital markets covering media and streaming. a bit out of consensus here,

allen. do tell. >> hi, kelly. nice to see you. i think there's a number of catalysts that are going to occur for comcast this year. we know that they have the media division will have the cable spinoff. epic universe, the domestic theme park, largest domestic theme park will open in orlando in may. the nba will move to mcast later in the year and should be consolidation in streaming and also in possibly linear cable networks and the spinco. in terms of broad band, two thirds of revenue, higher percentage of the ebitda, you know, the stock has been punished because broadband stubs have been declining, worse than street has expected. we don't know when the sub decline are going to stop. we do know you won't have a regulatory issue like the loss of acp like you had in 2025. more sports, more entertainment programs going to streaming. therefore, broadband consumption has to go up. comcast is upgrading its plans

and doing it all within a very 10% capital intensity. upgrading real efficiently. >> sure. >> the vast majority will be upgraded by the end of the year. so, you know, we think at these valuations, comcast is trading at a lower forward ebitda multiple than its peers, close to its all-time low. yet there's very little downside in our opinion. any sort of hint that broadband sub growth starts coming back, i think you'll have both a revaluation in addition to the higher ebitda. >> fair enough. a lot of bad news price into the stock sch has gone nowhere for five years. i look at the strategy and compare to at&t which finally die vested of all of its media assets and 50% or compare with fox which stayed in the sports and news business with the free streaming app, i believe and also saw shares of 50% last year. comcast kind of split the baby. they're keeping some of the

media stuff, some of the money-losing streaming product, they're not doing the free ad-supported route and so therefore i don't see them benefits from either strategy. they've kind of just a foot in each world and i think investors don't know what to make of it. >> a little differentiation between the two. they did not overpay for the assets like at&t did for directv or arguably time warner on in terms of fox. you have fox is mostly -- it's mostly sports and news. and if you look at what comcast is doing with spinning out the most of the linear cable networks, it's retaining the sports within nbcu and within peacock. news, i realize cnbc is part of the spinco and msnbc but nbc has the news there. let's see what happens here. i think the spinco is a first step in starting to separate things.

and then as i said earlier, i think we'll see some consolidation and some rationalization. >> right. do you think -- a lot of people think the ultimate plan here is for comcast and charter to merge to a trump administration might be more open to that, first cable merger you may want to call it. analysts think even in that scenario the competition in the internet space could be intense. look at t mobile how they're doing with some of their offerings and the likes of starlink down the line. do you think this is what it's about, spinning out things, focus on maybe doing a big national consolidation? >> it's possible. the regulatory process should be easier under a trump administration. and clearly there would be economies of scale. both charter and comcast went after time warner cable. charter won. comcast didn't. but if you put charter and comcast together, there would be a lot of synergies one could take out of such a combination. >> so you would be supportive of

that. i did note the day that comcast announced spinco the shares didn't rally. up a couple percent. >> that also came out the day of earnings when they first announced it. so, perhaps that was tied to the earnings. if your talking about when the press release came out, the press release was just reiterating or confirming the discussion they had in the third quarter earnings call saying they were considering spinning it out. >> are you going to cover spinco once it's spun? >> if it's public i will cover it, yeah. i will cover spinco. there's a good chance that spinco could end up going to private equity. i know it's supposed to be structure roberts family has the voting control, et cetera. but i think a spinco little like you look at directv. >> totally. >> perfect asset for private equity. a low-growth or declining business that throws off a ton of free cash flow. >> how dare you. no. i take your point. i don't know if we're cheering

for that or not. allen, thanks. i look forward to that initiation. a fun one to read later on. allen gold from loop. a quick news alert from meta. what's happening? >> some shakeup here at the top ranks mark zuckerberg's leadership team. nick cleg is stepping down as president of the global afairs. the former uk deputy prime minister joined facebook/mets ta a couple years being replaced by joel kaplan known as a prominent conservative voice within the organization. he served as deputy chief of staff for former president george w. bush several years ago. and has been working at facebook and meta for some time now. he's going to be taking over this new role as president of global affairs. of course, happening just ahead of president-elect trump's inauguration in just a few weeks here. >> wasn't nick kleg the leader of the green's party? >> a liberal democrat. yeah. >> steve, thank you. >> thank you. >> steve kovach.

that's how big tech is gearing up for trump. brian is gearing up for "power lunch." ote join mr. sullivan on th her side of this quick break. stay with us. there are some feelings you can get with any sportsbook. ohhh! the highs! no, no, no. the no, no, noooos -

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welcome to power lunch with kelly evans, i'