as well. we have governor kugler coming on the show tomorrow and monetary policy still in the background or the forefront. >> yeah. yeah. we will continue to see how the ai trade plays out. trillion dollar club, added the most. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. indeed it does. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." and here's what's on tap tonight. holiday hangover. stocks stumbling out of the gate to start the new year after limping to the finish line in 2024. is this a bad setup for a bull run this year? we'll debate that. plus, stuck in reverse. shares of tesla taking it on the front bumper after reporting their first ever drop in annual deliveries. we'll break down the stock's recent slide coming up. and later, the builders bruised and battered.

will the slide continue in 2025? energy on the climb. could this rebound be for real? and, a call of the day on uber. why goldman is so bullish. welcome, everybody, i'm tyler mathieson, in for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq market site. folks, welcome, everybody. happy new year. >> tyler, great to have you. >> we start with a magnificent seven meltdown, led by losses in apple, dropping more than 2.5% today. biggest loss since october and shedding $100 billion in market value in the process. a cool 100 bill. 100 billion. the stock has now dropped more than 6% from the all-time high it hit just a week ago, back when we were counting the ticks to the $4 trillion market cap mark. it closed at less than 3. $7 trillion, that's not so bad when

you think about it. apple's weakness dragging down the broader market on this first trading day of 2025. major indexes all down, but off their worst levels of the day. fractional declines, really, in percentage terms for the big three. s&p touching its lowest level, by the way, since election day. so, does this sort of choppy start to 2025 portend an end of a two-year megarally? karen? >> first of all, it's so nice to have you in your retirement. >> in my retirement. >> that was such a beautiful sendoff. >> we need an old guy and neil wasn't available. >> that sendoff a week or two ago -- >> thank you. >> not a dry eye in ec. lucky to have you. >> thank you. >> what we were talking about? >> off the bench. we were talking about apple and the magnificent seven. >> and what does this -- i'm long the magnificent seven. >> what do we think about the market for this year? >> i don't want to extrapolate anything from what happened today -- >> risky thing to do. >> yes, it would.

and make for not such a good show for the rest of the year, i think. but i like the ones that i own. apple, i think on this desk, we haven't loved apple, primarily because of price. the sort of, you know, the disappointment about a.i. and whether the, you know, the -- i don't know when we're really going to see phone sales take off because people love the apple a.i. experience. >> who wants to take a bite at apple? >> i'll take a bite. i might spit it out. >> you might check on oke on it. >> i'll see if i can chew this one down. courtney and i were on the show, the other two panelists, we hate that word, but we're a family here, but the other two members, i think, collectively, we said, listen, there are times where apple is a will jilt legitimate vehicle. there's times to get in. but if you've been long, that same volatility makes it very tough for you to time when you're going to get in and out. if you're a believer in the long-term sector, it's one that you should own and hold onto.

now, for those of us that have sat on the sidelines, i'll be the first to raise my hand, i just don't understand what the real drivers of the supercycle are, and if a.i. is the catalyst behind it, i can understand that they continue have the same spin as some of the other mag seven. there's a floor there. in terms of what's going to take what is already a fully valued company to the next level and lead to either -- for me, pe expansion, i don't think a.i. is a story yet, or, i don't see it. >> for apple, you're aying. >> for apple. >> and they're having competitive issues in china, right, where they've had to lower their prices to compete with huawei and other -- i was in europe last summer, they are cool phones. >> did you grab one? >> i like that one. they've got issues there, and there are questions about how well this latest phone is selling in the u.s., and whether it's going to -- >> yeah, headline risk, without question, it is great to have you, tyler, your legend will

only grow in retirement, but i'll say this, if you think about the things that i got wrong last year and clearly there were many, but passive investing, don't realize the magnitude until you start to see the numbers. a trillion dollars made their way into etfs and mutual funds last year. apple wins to this. they're in 487 etfs. 410 of which apple is one of the top 15, 1-5, holdings. apple will almost by definition go higher, but that doesn't mean valuation makes any sense. you're talking about a company that was a growth company nine, ten years ago. it was trading at a ridiculously cheap valuation, it was trading in the low teens. now that it's become sort of a value stock, it's trading north of 30 times next year's numbers, with eps growth maybe at 12%, 8% revenue growth. doesn't make a lot of sense. so, they win in this environment, but be careful if it flips, and that's one of my biggest concerns of '25. >> let's broaden out and pick up

on one of the things bonawyn said there about a.i. last year, i think, it would be hard to argue that one of the main drivers of the market was the a.i. lift. >> absolutely. >> are you expecting that kind of lift to reoccur this year? and if it doesn't, what kinds of stocks are going to move ahead? what will the drivers be? >> and i think there's a lot of structural changes with artificial intelligence that are going to continue, so, i think some of your easy money in a.i. has probably been made. i don't know if you're going to see nvidia outperform to the same magnitude that it has been. a lot of that has been priced in, but look at energy, for example, there's not enough energy to go around for these a.i. data centers, for electric vehicles, so, i think there's a lot of these stories that are surrounding a.i. that aren't going away in the near future. with apple, an a.i. emoji going to make me get the new iphone? probably not. but do we need that energy to create all the new a.i. stories, absolutely. >> is that a two cheers for

energy here? >> absolutely, yeah. >> anybody else want to pick up on energy? >> it makes sense. we didn't talk about this stock for the first 16, 17 years of the show, it's vst. and there's no reason to talk about it if you look at a long-term chart. look at the performance it had last year on the back of exactly what courtney's just talking about. this is a stock that's been reinvigorated by the a.i. phenomenon. and yeah, it's probably extended on valuation, but those are the names that are going to win in 2025. semis topped out in july. look at an smh chart. that's when it topped out and they've been sideways to lower ever since, outside of maybe broadcom and maybe a marvel. amd's been awful, you throw a micron in the mix, qualcomm. that's something to watch early this year, as well. >> thoughts here, karen? >> so, for a.i., i mean, to me, we look at mag seven and how much is driven by a.i., meta has been the most compelling story, because they've been the most able to translate that spend, which is enormous, into actually

giving advertisers what they want, right? they're able to target ads, the ads are more effective, the advertisers will pay more for them. so, to me, zuckerberg deserves the benefit of the doubt here on this gigantic spend. we've seen the spend before and it didn't work out with the metaverse, but i think -- it's had a great year, a great two years, but it's still pretty compelling at mid 20-ish multiple. not excluding the cash, so, t's a little more than a market multiple for a stock that is way better than average market stock. >> bonawyn, as you look at the landscape of 2025, is this a year when the market -- goes back sort of to what guy was saying, semiconductors topped out in the middle of last year. including -- including nvidia. is this a year where the broadens away from the mag seven and some sectors like energy, like financials and so forth, move ahead? >> i think there will be a

significant pickup in volatility in 2025. and you know i believe that most investors, particularly our audience, should have some passives, but i think 2025 will give you an opportunity via a much more agile and active trader. so, i think for now, you see energy, or pockets of it, you know, some of vistra, constellation, first solar. you'll get opportunities where there will be ebbs and flows of money flows in and out of those sub sectors. but i have a hard time thinking that we will get multiple expansion without that mag seven lift. >> especially with rates going higher, and i'm probably one of the few people that think -- i think ten-year yields are going to 5%. i think it's going to trade down to the levels we saw in october of last year, 82 1/2 or so, which sort of equates to 4.9% in the ten-year yield. i don't think the market's prepared for that at all,

valuations certainly don't support that. so, higher interest rates to me is one other thing you have to focus on, especially with all the issuances coming out over the first couple months of this year. >> i think that's a really good point. two things that make this year different, this year that we're looking ahead toward. number one is, what happens with the magnificent seven and the a.i. lift that may not be there to the same degree? and the other thing is rising interest rates this year, and how the market and how you're going to have to discount against that. let's move on. our next guest expects stocks to rebound this year to new all-time highs. chris harvey is the head of equity strategy at wells fargo. you say this is going to be a good year, but a bad vintage. what do you mean by that? >> i think equities are going to go up, but people are going to put on too much risk. people have been moving on momentum. that's comparable of, i keep pushing my bets, i keep pushing my bets into the table. that's fine, but it builds up risk over time. the other thing, people are going to start to go too far out

on the risk curve, because the person to the right, person to the left is going to make more money and there's going to be a bit of fomo. i think equities go higher, whether it's related to a good company, the fed still cutting rates, ipos, but when we look back from the perch of '27, we're going to say '25 was a year when people put on too much risk. >> do you think this is going to be a year of heightened volatility? >> i think that's an easy yes, we didn't have much volatility last year. we had a spike in the beginning of, what was it, august, and that just disappeared after that. credit spreads are still incredibly tight. we should see spikes in volatility, but i -- >> how do i play it? what do i do? >> what do you do? what we do, we've been barbelling some of the things we really like. we like communication, we like banks. we want to barbell that versus staples, right? staples unloved, underappreciated. that's going to get your portfolio balance.

that's going to help out the portfolio. so, you really want to barbell something defensive with something you like. something a little bit more cyclical. >> karen? >> so, when you're talking about investors being more levered, are you saying they themselves are more levered or looking at things that are more leveled, which mag seven is not? >> so, what i think is, they're going to put on more portfolio leverage. the other thing we're going to see is more m&a activity, which will bring leverage into the system. when you look at credit spreads being this tight, we could issue 200 million -- i'm exaggerating, but you could issue a lot of paper, right? and so, more leverage is going to come into the marketplace that way, as well. so, you're seeing on a portfolio level, on a corporate level, and i think you're going to see a lot more risk seeking as the year goes on. >> to guy's point a moment ago, interest rates moving up, he thinks they're going to go up, what did you say -- >> at least 5%. >> 5%. and what does that do to the overall -- and your price target is one of the highest on the

street. 7,007? >> 7,007. big james bond fan. >> dry, straight up, shaken. >> what that does, we do think that rates do peak in the first quarter. bonds are actually a pretty good risk/reward at this point in time. the compensation on bonds above inflation expectations is about 2.25%. you haven't seen that for sustained period of time since '06 -- excuse me, '06, when the fed was still raising rates. so, yes, we can get rates to go higher. i don't think you can sustain 5% for a long period of time. and i think that rates will come down, because the economy, i think, will slow down in the second half of the year. >> communication services is one of the -- one of the elements of your barbell approach here. what are those companies? that's your metas, googles, netflix, some of your at&t, verizon, and some of the cable companies. >> yeah.

so, you think those are well positioned, and financials, big banks -- financials is a big space. what are you emphasizing there? >> i think karen hit it on the head before. it -- with communication, it's that space. yes, the stocks have done really well for the last two years, but valuation is still attractive. they're still able to commercialize and one of the first ones to really be able to commercialize a.i. so, the underlying fundamentals are still really strong. with regard to banks, i just think you're going to have upward eps revisions for banks and still going to have relative multiple expansion for the banking space, because the regulatory environment. >> if the year ends where you think it is, 7,007, is the first half going to be where the fun is or the second half? >> i think it's the first half, right? i'm worried, if we do get close to that number by september or something, we really want to start derisking the portfolio at that point in time. i think we're going to start to see a lot more merger mondays. i think you're going to see a

lot more ipos. once you see that, people will have more money to play with, their risk appetite will go stronger. and we're looking at a period where the economy's still strong, credit spreads are tight. the fed is still easing, maybe not as much as we thought they would. and momentum is still very much in play. that's a pretty good recipe for upward stocks. >> chris, it's in my contract, if i host, you have to be here. we're glad you are. thank you so much. happy new year, my friend. all right, this is the portion of the show where we get to agree with chris or trash him. who would like to start? >> i'm very optimistic with where the markets are going next year. the animal spirits that we saw coming out -- >> soggy lately. >> right. that puts you in a better position in 2025, when some of that, like, has been let out of the sails. and i think there's a lot of that opportunity to come. because we are still going into a new administration, there is likely going to be less regulation. also talks of tax cuts, which we

really haven't talked about yet, and those things are going to position the economy to continue to do well next year. >> economy may do well -- >> maybe. >> but -- >> maybe. let's assume it does. >> okay. >> what does that do to the fed? that takes a little -- >> i think they've made their path pretty clear. the market wants something the fed's not going to give them. i think the bond market is pretty much telling you that. i'll say this, as well. today was a glimpse of what you can see for the next few months, without question. the vix was above 19 1/2. it closed lower than that, but you saw a glimpse of volatility, and what was, yeah, a bit of a volatile day, but not that volatile, so, buckle up. and again, bonds will matter. the semi trade will matter. and chris would be the first one to say, it's not a straight line to 7,000, and it might get there by year end, but it's going to be interesting to see where it heads first. >> and more deals this year, agree? >> i do, and i like the call on banks there, particularly the

large, integrated, that also have an investment banking arm. the volatility will likely see an increase in trading revenues. >> karen, what do you think? >> agree. i like that deal. and when you see, that's great for the banks and i have banks, but also, other players in the sector, where one got acquired, that's good for the rest of them, sort of breeds excitement. let's move onto where a lot of the action is going to be over the next couple of days, and weeks, to washington. republicans less than 24 hours from taking control of both the house and the senate. but still, a lot of uncertainty over who will be the house speaker. our emily wilkins has the very latest, as the deadline approaches. emily? >> hey, tyler. yeah, mike johnson could face a battle for his speakership tomorrow. if all lawmakers are present and they all vote for someone, it would only take two lawmakers to deny johnson the gavel. two republicans voting against him. and we know at least one republican, congressman thomas massie, says he's not going to vote for johnson. he criticized him in a lengthy x

post for the way johnson handled the government shutdown battle last month, saying that downson, quote, already demonstrated that he won't tell the president what is achievable and what is not achievable in the house, and he lacks the situational awareness himself to know what can pass and what cannot. now, about half a dozen other members are also undecided. several of them actually met with johnson this afternoon, and leaving that meeting, johnson struck an optimistic tone. >> people are talking through your process, those kinds of things, i'm open to that, and i think tomorrow is going to go well. >> so, one big difference, of course, between the last congress and now, is that any republican who wants to block the speaker, they're just delaying progress on their own gop agenda. that includes, of course, dealing with the debt limit, which, as of yesterday, is no longer suspended, giving lawmakers now a few months to figure out a solution. tiler? >> emily, let me ask you a sort of technical question about the vote for the speakership. when someone like that

representative says, i'm not going to vote for speaker johnson, does that necessarily mean that he's going to vote against him? in other words, if he voted or others who do not support johnson vote present, does that create more wiggle room for speaker johnson to continue in the seat? >> i love this wonky question, tyler. and the short answer is yes. i think you can have up to four members come in, vote present, and johnson will be just fine. where it gets tricky is that if members actually start voting for someone else, be it elon musk, donald trump, you could do mickey mouse, that's where you're going to see the breakdown in the vote. mccarthy won with four member s voting present. >> yeah, i don't think it's ever happened, but you do not have to be a member of the house to be the speaker of the house, right? >> you don't. but i will bet that we are probably going to be seeing -- probably going to be seeing mike johnson as speaker. i think the question is, how

many times does it take him to get there? and what sort of things does he wind up promising or giving away or negotiating in that process? because you have a lot of these members who are undecided, their main concern is spending, and they want to make sure that johnson is going to be addressing it. >> emily, thank you very much. let's take a quick break. coming up, a luf start to the new year for a few high profile names like tesla, boeing, nike. the reasons behind those moves are next. plus, home builder stocks getting hit, as new mortgage data filters in. but could there be an opportunity in this space? we're going to drill down on that trade, when "fast money" returns. we're back in two. you're watching "fast money," here on cnbc. money," here on cnbc. we'll be right back. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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leaders. they say roughly 100 government computers were compromised, they were accessing unclassified material, that's what the treasury department had said, but that it was specifically some senior leaders computers. they're not saying who, but hey're saying that hackers were able to access drafts and notes for policy decision s and trave planning documents, as well as internal communications that they're still trying to decide, trying to figure out exactly what was taken, but that once again it was all unclassified. this goes a little bit further than what we already know about this hack, it follows "the washington post" reporting that it was the sanctions office specifically, as well as the secretary's office that had been targeted and breached in this hack, so, more to come. just today, congressional republicans have been asking for a briefing ing and the treasur department says they will be debriefing. hill that's something to watch next week. more details coming up on that.

tiler? >> megan, thank you. tesla shares plunging 6% to kick off 2025 after the ev maker reported its first ever drop in annual deliveries. year over year, worst performing stock in the s&p 500 today. deliveries last year coming in about 1% below 2023 levels at 1.79 million versus 1.81. our phil lebeau has the details. was this expected, phil? >> wasn't a surprise, tyler. if they were going to hit the consensus, they were still going to see a year over year decline in deliveries. here's the numbers for the fourth quarter. i mentioned that they did not hit the consensus. the consensus was for 504,000 to be delivered, they delivered just over 495,000. as is usually the case, 95% of them, model 3 and model y, so, as you look at annual deliveries, as you guys pointed out, 1.81 million was what they delivered in 2023, they fall

about 20,000 vehicles shy of that for 2024, so, really close. almost flat, but it's still a decline. the first one, really, since tesla -- you'd have to go back to their days of making the roadster, when they were only delivers a few thousands vehiclesing and even then, it's hard to determine whether or not they had a decline in vehicle deliveries. this is the first one, as they ramped up and really hit the commercial markets around the world. if there's a silver lining in the report today, it's with energy storage deployments. they report that every quarter, along with their annual deliveries. and it with us a nice number, in terms of the fourth quarter deployment. 11 giga watt hours. most they've ever done in a quarter. the consensus was for 9.6 giga watt hours. the 2024 deployments of energy storage up 113%, compared to '23. and remember, they've got a megawatt plant that's coming online in china in early 2025.

so, we expect that probably will see even greater energy deployments, as you look at shares of tesla, keep in mind, they will be reporting their q-4 results january 29th after the bell. and the focus is really going to be less about deliveries, although that will get a lot of questions. the focus is going to be about what elon musk says about robotaxi development and look at shares of byd. byd said that for the year of '24, tyler, 1.76 million vehicles delivered, so, tesla keeps the crown, at least for another year, as the overall leader in ev sales worldwide. tyler? >> i wanted to ask you if you have any granularity on where were the sales more slow than in other -- was china a notable weak spot? do you know that, do they break it out that way? >> they don't break it out by regions, but you can put the numbers together and you look at things like vehicle registrations, they actually, in

the fourth quarter, in the third and fourth quarter, were increasing deliveries in china, but they're not growing sales as quickly as china's ev market is growing. so, that's one area where they're feeling pressure. and here in the united states, you know, they're going to be facing the questions about what happens with the ev tax credit on a federal level. >> all right, phil lebeau, thank you. let's kick it around a little bit bit. thoughts on tesla? >> i think there's general concern around the demand for evs, which is why we've seen a lot of the heritage u.s. automakers kind of pull back, either do completely away with or push back what they're target dates have been. but i really don't want to con flate the two, between byd and tesla. tesla is compressing margins and driving up sales and pushing out competitors. we're not talking about a state-backed agency, a state-backed enterprise. though, that may be what --

>> there's a joke in there. >> but my point is, i don't think the comparisons should be between the two, and that inform an investor if tesla is worthwhile. they've just pulled back from that unprecedented presidential of, what was it, a 60% run, 40% run since november -- >> 70% run. so, they've given up 20%, 25% of that. i think you have to put that in context before you say tesla is no longer investable. >> clearly, the market wasn't prepared for it, on the back of the selloff, right? so, maybe people were expecting it, but in terms of market positioning, it wasn't, given the move we saw today and given the amount of shares it traded. with that said, you know, i'm still surprised it's trading on delivery numbers. now, it's about robotaxi and all those other things they've been promising for quite some time. if you're looking for a level, this is it. i mean, this was the prior all-time high back in november

of 2021, so, we basically traded all the way back down to a prior high, which should be support. so, if you want to play from the long side, here we go. a lot more "fast money" to come. here is what is coming up next. new year, new opportunities. could the recent dip in the home building space help you nail down some gains? what you need to know out of the housing sector ahead. but first, boeing and nike both starting 2025 in the red. and with 30% losses from both stocks in 2024, are those names in for another year of pain? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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all right, welcome back to "fast money." a pair of big buzz kills to kick off 2025. nike tumbling 2.6%, but we start with another blow for boeing. the aerospace company one of several u.s. companies on china's latest export control list. the sanctions would ban imports to and exports from china, or making new investments in the country. it's now down almost 5% just

this week, so, courtney, your thoughts on boeing? >> boeing's been tough. i mean, really for the last several years, you want to find an entry point into boeing. we need to keep making airlines. but there's really not enough planes to go around right now. they need the more efficient planes, and the demand is still there. they just keep having issues. >> why has it been such a mess for so long? >> your guess is as good as mine. i'm not management there, unfortunately. it's just something completely unexpected. the recent news of a crash, we you all thought we were past that, but it's hard to jump into something that seems like such a mess from a management standpoint. >> thoughts on boeing? >> yeah, i bought some boeing a little bit after they did that very big capital raise of $24 billion. i mean, to me, that was really important. an important event. they've had tremendous issues, it used to be a great cash flow story, and now it is negative. so, that's a big change.

but i think when you're as down and out as boeing, every little thing becomes a big thing. that crash is other day. >> in korea. >> was terrible. i think the tension with china will continue. but i'm kind of intrigued by boeing. i think that it's -- didn't stop going down today, but it is generally stopped going down on bad news, even, which, you know, tim always says, you make the most money when things go from terrible to just bad, so, i'm long boeing in the hope that it gets out of the terrible. >> gets less bad. let's move over to nike now. it was down 2.6% in the first trading day of the year. sales estimates for 2025 continue to fall. analysts predicting a 10% annual drop for this fiscal year, according to fact set. so, guy, is it time to just sell it? >> we've been saying this for awhile. i mean, pull up a longer term chart and you'll see this is more than cut in half since its all-time high, i think, in the summer of 2021 or thereabouts.

competition seemingly came out of nowhere and they weren't prepared for it. and quite frankly, it's still sort of expensive on valuation. it's flirting with the levels that we saw this summer, 70 bucks or so. to me, it feels like it's going to take it out and test a new level on the downside. i don't think, in my opinion, there's not a compelling reason to own this, not on valuation yet and not on the turnaround yet. the fact that the competition is only getting worse doesn't help them, either. >> bonawyn? >> i have a very small position. i wouldn't sell it yet, only because i do believe in the long-term story, and ultimately, it's small enough and we've right sized it so we can kind of play for any type of leg up, but i'm with guy, i -- it's hard for me to really find some compelling catalysts. the issue is, we need some exposure to retail within the portfolio. it's not as if we can invest completely in a.i. or completely in renewable energy, so, from the portfolio standpoint, i can

understand that you feel like you're picking amongst the upper echelon of retail, but they certainly need to get their act together and will probably hold off. >> to guy's point, the competition has only become stiffer and stiffer. let's take a quick break. the big drop in mortgage demand, as the housing market enters its annual winter's freeze. is it just a seasonal slump, or is there even more weakness to come? the outlook for home builders, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. .. carl's way is the best way. client: is it? at schwab, how i choose to invest is up to me. driver: exactly! i can invest and trade on my own... client: yes, and let them manage some investments for me too. let's move on, shall we? no can do. client: i'll get out here. where are you going?? schwab.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. stocks starting the new year off in the red, despite all three indexes initially starting the day higher. the dow dropped more than 150. the s&p and nasdaq both down about 0.2%. both indexes riding five-day losing streaks, a rough end of the year. longest since april, by the way. crypto starting the new year off with a bang. bitcoin up 3%, trading around $97,000. ethereum and solana also higher today. and shares of the bio tech stock neumora plummeting more than 80%

today. its worst day ever. that would be my worst day ever, 80% down. after the company's experimental depression drug failed to reduce symptoms in late-stage trials. the stock now worth about $300 million. that would take you into small cap territory. meanwhile, the home builder stocks in need of repair. dr horton, pulte group, kb home, lennar falling double digits over the past month as mortgage demand slid to end the year. diana olick has the details. >> it does usually, that's right, tyler, but it did a lot this year. total application volume for the two weeks ending december 27th dropped nearly 22% compared with the week before that period, according to the mortgage bankers association. which did seasonal and holiday adjustments. now, during that time, the average rate of the 30-year fixed increased to 6.97% from 6.89% for loans with 20% down. rates were 21 basis points

higher than they were the year before. and that's a change, as they had been lower on an annual comparison for much of 2024. applications for a mortgage to buy a home fell 13% during the two weeks and were 17% lower than the same period a year ago. the annual comparison still shows considerable weakness, and that's why the home builders had a rough end to the year. the itb, the home building etf, was down nearly 18% in the last month. names like lennar, pulte, and dr horton down in december after they shot much higher from july to november in anticipation of many more fed rate cuts, which, of course, we know, are not going to be as many as we thought, tyler. >> all right, diana, thank you very much. guy, what do you think of the home builders? >> well, if you believe rates are going higher, which i do, and if you think the unemployment rate is going higher, which i also do, it's hard to make a compelling case here. you see how quickly the stocks can go lower.

pull up any one of the foryou want and the move has been staggering. and now all of a sudden, middle of december, you see downgrades. barclays, jpmorgan. you're going to see people downgrade. people want to play pick a bottom here, i you this it's way too early to pick that right now. i think there's more pain on the downside. >> bonawyn? >> i'm with guy in terms of trying to catch a falling knife, but i do think the relative performance versus iyr is starting to get interesting. >> iyr being? >> the real estate etf, which has a lot of reit exposure. i would look at a pairs trade, where i would use iyr as a source of funds, and i'm deploying capital into itb. and that way, you're still net neutral the overall real estate sub sector, but you, you know, have ong pockets of outperformance. >> courtney, do you like reits, home builders, any of it? you don't have to. >> i think guy, you bring up a

lot of great points, but i'm going to take the other side of this. i think longer term, there is a really big structural demand problem. there are not enough houses to go around. i think there's 5 million more households created over the last two decades than homes that have been built. and i think you're going to likely see some of this fatigue. the buyers are going to start to come in. and when the current homeowners are under 4%, they're not selling, which is where the home builders, they're the ones that can come in and they can buy down rates to bring in the buyers. so, i don't think this is a story that's going to end in the near term. i do think, yeah, short-term, there could be some pressure on it, but longer term, i don't think this is a story that's ending. you probably want to start to buy in some of this weakness. >> courtney says long-term, the home builders may be a place for some money. do you think so? >> i think so. she talks about this interesting dynamic of all this stranded existing homes that aren't on the market because people have too cheap of a mortgage. at some point -- this might be a sweet spot for home builders in that that inventory isn't coming

on yet, and yet, there is this pent up demand that is enormous. and i think we'll see easier regulations to build homes, so -- i'm kind of inclined to take a shot on the home builders. and they've come down a lot. >> all right. >> no, it's all good. that's what makes markets. >> two sides of the story here. all right, coming up, high energy in 2025. oil stocks leading the charge in the new year's first day of new trading, so, which teams can keep powering higher? we'll debate that when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. energy stocks powering higher today. the s&p energy etf up 1%. it was the best performing sector today. oil and gas producers seeing some of the best gains with an eighth straight session in the green. those moves coming as west texas crude prices rose to its highest level since mid-october, amid a more optimistic outlook for demand in china, and maybe a chillier weather season. guy? thoughts on energy? >> karen's been talking about lng for years.

it's had a bit of a pull back, but it's back on its horse today. and nat gas is one of those stories that nobody's talking about, but it's more than doubled. deservedly so. nat gas is in play. i think you're right to point it out. crude oil is surprising people, i hink, to the upside. it's been steady over the last couple of weeks, and it's just a matter of time before the energy stocks start to play catchup into the valuations. exxon traded lower today, probably on the back of the broader market, but i still like energy here. >> energy, karen? >> i do like energy, but oh, my god, it's been frustrating, for a couple of years. and so many reasons to think it would be good with ukraine, russia, still unresolved, tensions in the middle east, g being good here, but it hasn't seemed to matter. at some point, i thought value would out. maybe this is the year, guy. >> maybe. maybe it's in your acronym this year. >> i feel like the moves we've seen today are indicative of

flight to perceived safety, and i think valuation and free cash flow generation are those perceptions of safety. we saw a similar situation with consumer staples, where they weren't really offering much return, but they were -- they were a perceived store of value. and i think that could be a lift for the energy sector. clearly, it's underowned and underperformed. >> maddeningly so. all right, thank you. coming up, two fast movers ing in different directions today. the calls on uber and sofi that powered the pop and drop. more "fast money" in two.

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robotaxi business. courtney, thoughts on this space, particularly uber or either one of them? >> i like this call on uber. this is something that's gotten lost in the conversation of autonomous vehicles, people are saying, that's going to be the end of uber, but i think in the short-term, that's not going to be an issue for them. longer term, they are likely going to be able to integrate it into their platform. i think they've been strong showing how profitable they have been, in an economy where the consumer is tight and they are starting to pull back on things, they have continued to show they are a company of strength here. i think looking at this as an opportunity -- >> if my son's bills are any indication -- >> is he doing -- >> uber is going to do just fine. he's standing over there right now. mack is here. >> mack, what are you doing, man? >> you use uber? he uses uber. >> craziest thing. >> it'son on your credit card? >> it is. >> i'm with courtney on this

one. the move from 87 to 60, pretty much in a straight line, was way overdone. if you look at where it held, it's the august 5th low. so, good for goldman sachs on this call. and i think uber is one that's going to surprise, as well. let's move onto another big call. sofi sinking 8% after kbw downgraded the stock to underperform. analysts saying the fin tech firm's valuation looks overstretched. also raising some concerns around whether the company can make its long-term growth targets. bonawyn, what do you think here on sofi? >> this is a name that i like. i like the fact, much like american express, they seem like they're catering to a younger cohort, and i think that's important that you get the pulse of what that consumer is doing. but the valuation, i think it's 70 something odd on a forward basis, like 127 on a trailing basis. it's hard to argue -- >> with the overvaluation. >> there you go. >> all right. we're going to take a quick break. come back, do some final trades in just a minute or so. we'll see you after the break.

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the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! all right, time, folks, for our final trade. let's go around the horn. we start with bonawyn. >> cyber security, the need for it is not going away any time soon. i think it's approaching a level of support. palo alto network. >> karen. >> thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> nice to have you. you know hope springs eternal. it was one of the xs in my helm trade, energy, xle. still like it. >> all right. court? >> the home builders. we talked about earlier. i think there's some pros and cons here. i would look at this, xhb. >> all right, guy?

>> we have the mathieson family watching their husband/dad irl. >> irl. >> it's in real life. >> in real life. >> and it's great, starting the year with you. >> great to be with you. >> bristol myers, you big stud. >> thank you for watching "fast mone" erody,evyby. guy, thank you ♪ my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bulwark somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. i am trying to make you some money. my job is to not just entertain, teach you about all the crazy stuff that happens here. call me. tweet me @jimcramer. have you notice the extrem