exxonmobil gets about and better. that's going to continue. >> and weiss? >> crypto. bitcoin specifically and more specifically ibid. i think it retakes 100,000, goes to 125. >> all right. we have got just a little bit left here. i want to show you that the markets are higher across the board.125. >> i want to show you that the markets are higher across the board, tesla, highest in consumer discretionary, but still down about eight, that does it for the halftime, the exchange starts right now. >> thank you very much, courtney, welcome to the exchange, i'm kelly evans, the vote to elect the new house speaker is currently underway, if it fails, that will have big consequences for capitol hill, for business and for he economy, we will bring you the very latest as we get them and these potential impacts. despite the d.c. drama, where

we see the biggest opportunities in the new year, but are the charts telling a different story? our technician brings three of them that are making him wary, this is one of them, it is a mystery chart for the day, what he's watching and how he is trading it. before that, finally a break in this losing streak. >> yes, a five day losing streak for the nasdaq, and to that point, we look poised to snap, and we still have a few hours to go but still, let's start with the broader s&p 500 which is urrently up 60 points or one full percent, that is near the session high which is at 64 points to the upside, still an update overall, the level a lot of traders are watching right now for at least the short term is 5944 and the s&p, that represents that 50 day moving average or medium turn trend line. the dow is up 42,636, and the

nasdaq up to 19,540, that is good for 260 points. one key industry group moving in the opposite direction, beverage alcohol companies, this is tied to headlines coming out the biden administration, the surgeon general who is calling for warning labels linking cancer risk to alcohol consumption, that is not the only driver downside but it is a big one, brown-foreman is down about 1 1/2%, so you get the idea, it is not the only driver but a sentiment for the beverage alcohol companies for sure. and one of the places to keep an eye on is another headline of the biden atomization, the blockage of the japan nippon steel, down about 6%, that is

what they have been all session long it with the administration formally blocking nippon steel, the question becomes, are there other potential suitors or lawsuits, we will find hat out in the coming weeks, back over to you. >> thank you very much. the house is voting to elect a speaker for the new congress and the path for mike johnson to remain is very narrow. emily wilkins has the very latest from capitol hill, what should we expect? >> reporter: as you can see, members are in the middle of voting, i think they are right in the middle, they have a long way to go, they are calling member by member, we had congressman tim burchett treat moment ago that he is expecting johnson to lose the first round. he just voted for mike johnson and we have seen a number of other holdouts go ahead and support him, could be because just before this started, mike

johnson seemed to respond to some of the concerns from the fiscal hawks in the conference, he tweeted that he would be creating a working group comprised of independent experts to work with doge , also work with existing audits of federal agencies, and johnson was optimistic heading into this, saying he thinks he has enough support to win but, when asked how many rounds he would be willing to go, johnson said he is ready to go the distance, johnson said we have to get this job done and unify the conference and i'm here for the long run. it seems like johnson has swayed at least a few republicans, victoria sparks is now yes, and just a reminder, if all members are here, only two republicans vote for someone other than johnson, he will be able to win the speakership and we could go on to a second ballot or a third, at this point we are seeing a

couple members who were holdouts, we have seen this for michael macleod and they don't say anything. and they will have a chance at the very end of this roll call ballot, the group will go ahead and call the names of those who haven't voted so we might not exactly know which way this goes until the very end depending on some f these folks that are not answering, how they ultimately decide to go. >> and we will see what happens, emily, thank you. my next guest says if there is no speaker, the economy is in jeopardy, the ripple effects could boggle the mind. we have the director of the national economic council under george w. bush and also fed governor, larry, it is also

very good to see you again, explained the significance of the vote that is going to be very slim, for you it is only if you lose it and they can't figure this out, there could be immediate consequence, what are those? >> if there is no speaker, there is no house of representatives, the speaker swears in the house, on monday, the house and the senate are supposed to vote to certify the electoral college vote and if there is no house, the house can't certify the electoral voted, and we will not have a president. what will happen on january 20th, chuck grassley who is the longest serving republican senator, majority senator, he is 92, will become president of the united states, but it is hard to see how the trump agenda passes, how we get a budget deal, how we get tax bill action of any sort.

this is a big vote, i'm surprised the markets have ignored it frankly, this is a huge event. >> if they don't elect a speaker by what date, do you think chuck grassley becomes president, basically by the 20th? >> on the 20th, right, if they elect a speaker before the 20th and the house certifies the electoral vote, he could become president. i doubt it'll go that long but it is possible that on monday, which is when the electoral college is supposed to be certified, it is not. >> if you were talking to thomas massey, for those who had philosophical holdouts with mike johnson, making deals with democrats and so forth, what do you tell them? >> well, is he for the trump agenda or not, it is very simple. right now he is voting against the enacting trump agenda if he doesn't vote for the speaker.

>> there's going to be some back-and-forth and people can vote and change their mind and pressure, maybe the market is telling us they think johnson is going to win, and it is going to turn out that everything is fine. >> well, i hope they are right, i think there is a good chance they will be right, maybe not on the first ballot there is a good chance that mike johnson will be re-elected as a speaker and everything can proceed but, i tell you, you shouldn't be sweating this, this is a ridiculous situation to be in. >> is it ridiculous for the margin or for other reasons? >> it is not unusual for washington, it is ridiculous because of the egos involved, i think that when mr. musk pulled the rug out from under the speaker, it didn't help, we left him swinging in the wind for a week, then the president finally woke up to the fact that his problem is, he has

been lobbying hard ver since. we will see if that works or not. >> what you make of the musk partnership, and their goals may divide and fracture the gop when it has a very slim majority to begin with? >> the thing that is striking, they are both very smart, i give an honest respect for both men, musk in particular is a visionary but, visionaries often don't understand how washington works, washington is not a visionary place, it is an implementing place and when you try to mix the two, it doesn't happen. and i think that he has a lot of learning to do. you know, i'm sympathetic to the criticisms of washington but, you still have to play by the rules, i don't care what you say. >> with that in mind, if you say well, maybe you could argue part of the mandate trump was elected with was cut government

spending and get after the deficit, what is the best way to do that in the world of real washington politics? >> well, no one has invented it yet, well, a little bit, and i was there for reagan's efforts, there was some pruning back, it was very hard, it is called the swamp for a reason and all the animals form the ecosystem and cooperate with one another. so, we'll have to see. an ideal situation for a member is to give speeches back home about how he wants to cut waste, but again, have the waste to help him through, that is the unique problem, and they are all the same way.

>> when you look at the president's agenda and what you think is likely to actually happen, we have this big dagger of the expiring tax cuts, the border, energy, so many different initiatives, they say maybe it is going to be one big bill, i don't know, what are your expectations for the next 12 months? >> assuming that mr. johnson is elected speaker, the house will be able to function, they are going to have to start moving fast, they lose two republican members who are going into the administration on january 20th and they won't have special elections for those districts until april 1st so it is a two- month hiatus where it is going to be hard for republicans to command the majority, so nothing will move. they can still work in the committee and things like that but, it is going to be, things are going to be more delayed than what you expect. that is why the rules committee, from the last congress set up a set of rules

that can fast-track a bunch of legislation and that may lead to votes before january 20th, so the president can claim he has a lot of his agenda through early on. but the really big bills dealing with the deficit, how we are going to do with avoiding a huge tax increase, that is what it is. no, we have the same tax rules for eight years, we have had increases of taxes since january 26, big enough frankly to close the session, so there's a lot at stake in getting things passed. >> and my final question, although i wanted to ask you about nippon steel as well, do you feel bullish or bearish about the economy this year because you have been optimistic, you have said

inflation is going to remain higher-than-expected but is there a shift in tone now? >> there will be if johnson loses, i think that through a wrench into the works, but the u.s. economy is strong, i think the big surprise this year is going to be real wages, this is the natural part of the business cycle for labor to get its share back. remember, real wages actually fell during four years of president biden so it is time for them to call back and the higher wages are going to raise costs for business, the market participant, it looks like they just approved him, that is why people are applauding. >> i'm holding my breath until they tell me anything officially. >> well, they wouldn't have the applause going on if they haven't elected somebody. >> let me quickly say this before we have to come back to the boat outcome, what you about blocking nippon steel, arguably better technology, may

use it from taking over u.s. steel, are you siding with biden and even trump on this one? >> either we believe in free trade, generally free trade agenda with our allies in japan, remember, it's one of our oldest allies since 1945, and not only that, it is good for u.s. steel, this capital injection, jobs are more secure. frankly this is just plain politics by the president, president biden in this case. and trump would have done the same thing i think, they are just playing politics, it is a bad sign. >> i think they just did a roll call which is why he got the applause and they are only on the case of the alphabet, so this could be going into the next hour. >> okay, so nervous for a little bit longer then.

>> exactly, thank you for joining us, really good to check in with you on a number of fronts. thank you so much. despite all the noise in d.c., my next guest sees several areas of opportunity in the u.s. in stocks and bonds, let's bring in darrell cronk, at wells fargo investment institute, maybe i will start with bonds. it has been a terrible stretch the last several years. >> it has, you are right, if you look at the bloomberg aggregate, 1.4% in 2024 for just straight u.s. treasuries, that is when we were up 5.5% going into basically the fourth quarter of the year so we gave a lot of that back, i think the third worst on record in the last 45 years for treasury futures. so, the yield price on the

curve consecutively, we are starting to extend duration, we are starting with the layout, we don't think you have to run and do that all at once. the key in 2025 is you need both the 10 year treasury and the unemployment rate to stay below 5%. if that can happen, you are going to get good economic growth, we put three quarters in a row in the books with 3% u.s. gdp growth, that is far better than the rest of the world and remember, earnings are priced in nominal terms, so if i'm etting up to 3% inflation and 2.5% to 3% gdp growth, i make 5% nominal, that is a very healthy environment for earnings and stock prices next year. >> i like how you said we will both unemployment and bond yields to below 5%. stocks by the way do what, coming off of a couple strong years.

>> obviously it is well documented, two years in a row, +20% hasn't happened since 1998, only the fifth time in history it has happened, we set new record highs for the s&p last year but remember, almost all of 2023 was done through multiple expansion and virtually no earnings growth, and what we do with the fourth quarter earnings here, somewhere around 9% earnings growth for calendar year 24 which is healthy and next year, we are at 275 on the s&p, that compares to where we will finish the year for eps, 243, 244, we don't think multiples can expand because multiples are already high on historical and relative basis but if you get 12%, 13% earnings growth, prices can go up even if multiple stay the same. >> i think a lot of people will take it, you are hearing this argument, it is contrary, to go

international with a lot of people saying how can it get any better with the u.s. when we continue to climb in terms of the market cap, but once everyone is on one side of the boat, maybe we should think about why -- it is so hard for me to even ask the question, because i don't see it but it tells you that maybe it'll happen. >> you are right, and the question to ask has been asked every year for the last five years running and every year it has been a value trap to try to go international minus a few select markets, with germany basically in a recession, france on the cusp of it, china having problems with the stimulus, people are underestimating, when you look at what the dollar has done in the last 90 days, it is in the 93rd, 94th percentile of moves historically, that is really hard on international markets and on international earnings, can that level off here and even come down a little bit in

the next year? that would be helpful for international companies but right now between rates going higher and the dollar going higher, it is putting pressure on emerging market equities. >> it is hard because sometimes it puts pressure on us as well. i know you can't necessarily give us specific names but in terms of themes, you're sticking with where the innovation is coming from, where the new growth is coming from, industrial power, can you get any more specific on that, especially for the trades that already feel quite crowded? >> two years in a row, the best has been tech, communication and in discretionary services, we do not think they are cheap, we do think that trend continues although our most favorable right now in the portfolio is energy, it is cheap, a solid dividend, the prices are on the move, we are pushing to the 50

day moving average, we also like industrials and financials . i think the story for equities in 2025 is both delivery of that earnings growth but also a widening of brats which has been extremely narrow the last two years, you have the top six stocks making 31%, the top 10 making up 40%, you have to get financials and industrials, some of these other areas that haven't participated as strongly to really help take the lead in 2025. >> darrell cronk, appreciate it. and coming up, the s&p 500 buybacks, the stocks with the highest ratios, names like apple, google is underperforming in the broader index since the start of last year but one strategist says it'll be companies buying back stocks, not investors that drives the market in 2025. first, tensions with china on the rise after beijing targeted

more than two dozen companies with trade controls, we get a report from beijing and a look at the impact to investors with chgecio, that is next on the exan. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. d . then one day, she did. you were made to chase your passions. we were made to put them in a package. it's time to grow your business. time to get customers. time to make your future, now. create a website in minutes. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing? nope. ai, done, built, up and running. you have what it takes.

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>> we are looking at these larger corporations as targets among the chinese, china is banning trade of dual use items for 28 american defense contractors and 10 of these companies are on the blacklist for their sales of arms to taiwan, which is an island that beijing claims as its own, in addition to that, the chinese are taking aim at the ev industry, the commerce ministry said it is revising its expert control guidelines to include technologies that are important in the production of ev batteries, this includes lithium and gallium extraction and refining and battery chemicals and processing which influence the battery performance, so it is unclear, kelly, just when these new revisions are going to come into force. however, the public commentary

period ends on february 1st. >> and do we expect these to be expanded? >> reporter: the way things are looking, between the u.s. and china, probably so. right now most people hink that this move is meant to counter the u.s.'s restrictions on chinese tech development as well as seen as, well people here think it is also the chinese military and on top of that, the chinese have been indicating that they want to keep a grip on the ev industry as well as global supply chains and of course we have president- elect trump coming into power in the next couple of weeks. >> exactly, getting ahead of that as well, thank you, we appreciate it. breaking news on the houseboat, the speaker on capitol hill, emily?

>> reporter: we do have two republicans who have voted for a candidate other than mike johnson, we had thomas massey, we knew he wasn't going to vote for johnson, and we have ralph norman, one of the other holdouts who was undecided yesterday, he met with johnson and sounded optimistic but he said he wasn't there yet, he has voted for jim jordan, we have another, about five members, republican members who were in the chamber, their names were called but they did not say anything. what is going to happen is the clerk will be going back to them when they are done, we will see if they vote present or if they vote for someone else, clearly this is a strategy, we don't exactly know at this point and there are still some other members who have been holdouts for johnson including chip roy, they haven't gotten them yet, their names are further back in the alphabet but at this point, we are going to be going onto a second roll call vote, of course nothing is final until

the gavel falls, anyone can change their vote but at this point it is not looking good for mike johnson and it looks like those promises that he made before going into the chamber with having a working group to work with doge might not be enough at this point. >> if i heard you correctly, it was ralph norman from south carolina who was another no vote on this, are they going to continue the roll call all the way through and start another round, how does it work? >> yes, they will continue all the way through, technically embers can continue to change their votes until the gavel falls so nothing is final, however again, at this point with these five members, republican holdouts who are not voting and will vote at the end, plus the two who already came out and voted for somebody other than johnson, things are not looking good, johnson would need a small miracle for him to work out on the first roll call. after that, johnson can decide whether to take a break or go back to office, or just go ahead into the second roll call

vote and see how he does. so we will pay very close attention to the rest of this, to what the final roll call for the first one is, exactly how many folks are for or against johnson and figure out what the next steps are from there. >> the market is completely shrugging it off, the dow is still up nearly 300 points without much movement on this, we appreciate it, and we will check back in. circling back to china, though stocks have been under big pressure amid ongoing tensions with the u.s., my next guest says uncertainties about the trump administrations are keeping investors on the sidelines. brandon, welcome, how much of this is about trump and how much of it is about a spiral for the chinese economy? >> certainly, investor enthusiasm of the u.s. stocks over the last 15 years has been

very significant, but at the same time, particularly through china, that is due to their concern, their career risk that a professional investor would have buying chinese stocks with the threat of trump tariffs that we don't think that will become economic reality, we don't think replicating the tariffs that led to the great depression, we think it is the art of the deal and we think the trump administration will finalize a strong deal with china who will go along with it. >> i was reading through the measures that the chinese are trying to undertake to boost the economy, i don't understand the orthodox monetary policy one, they seem to be doing a lot of stimulus measures, things like subsidizing smart phones, maybe some of them are iphones, that is interesting. >> one of the things that happened overnight, we had the and drc, one of the major government agencies and china

saying they would expand the consumption subsidies we have seen toward home appliances and auto including electric vehicles, there was a very strong rally overnight in hong kong from specific economies, the apple ecosystem, aac optical, as well as a major player in mobile phones in china, a competitor to the iphone but, i'm really surprised that apple is not rallying off of this news, the world's second-largest economy is stimulating, and you see that gear to home electronics, not only benefit ali baba but jd.com, that is like the best buy of china online, so we think it's just a little bit out of sight, out of mind for u.s. global investors and the real positives happening in china literally today. >> those are the individual

names that david double down on when he was reducing his broad exposure to china a quarter or two ago and looking at what he foresaw as some of the individual beneficiaries here. also interesting, you have seen a few olive branches, while we are talking about some of these new punitive measures, what do you see that gives you optimism between the two sides here? >> a lot of the measures you see from the outgoing biden administration has led beijing to ensure they have some levers they can pull, so this back-and- forth, and this was all proposed which means again, this is a little bit of the door still ajar and similarly we see president trump, he invited president xi to the inauguration, but i think it is a very strong signal to see the vice premier or the trade envoy attend at a bare minimum, you have also seen within the

continuing resolution of this big bill that got passed at year-end, from version 1 to version 2, when president trump and elon musk opined on the first version, they pulled out the outbound china restrictions which really not many people noticed that again, another significant olive branch from the trump administration to beijing and of course you are seeing the tiktok news from president trump, there's more to that and just china, obviously one of his major donors but, investors are noticing these positives happening, it has been a little frustrating for us over here. >> even if there are positives happening between these two major economies, it doesn't address china's chronic structural issues and those are so big now, i literally don't know how they can be fixed, especially if xi jinping said what's the big deal about

inflation. >> i think they are being very conservative with implementing this stimulant, they don't know exactly what those policies will look like but they don't have any choice, their back is up against the wall, a terrible performance of the shanghai composite, particularly this week, it is a thumbs down from investors in china saying you've got to do more and for any politician including president xi, when you get that thumbs down, that is a bad sign, so you're starting to see moves like ndrc , we think the supertanker is starting to move, just very slowly. >> appreciate it, it has been a rough stretch for chinese equities. coming up, and nvidia is the best performing max seven this week, but investors are looking to the next catalyst of growth, we could get some answers from the ceo's keynote address in

vegas next week, we will look ahead to that next.

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kirby said today the u.s. is expected to announce more security assistance for ukraine within days, no additional details regarding aid was provided but it comes after the biden administration announced last week $5.9 billion of military and financial assistance to ukraine. the family of the menendez brothers will meet with the los angeles county district attorney today to bid for a reduced sentence for the brothers, the family said over 20 family members will push for a resentencing process that reflects their demonstrated rehabilitation. the brothers are currently serving life in prison without parole for the murders of their parents, that disrupted the nation in 1989. and the biden administration issued final guidelines for hydrogen subsidies worth tens of billions of dollars over the next decade, the rules include a provision that allows companies to claim that credit to claim hydrogen under certain

conditions, some environment groups oppose in allowing nuclear reactors to qualify for clean hydrogen credits. back over to you. >> very busy, thank you very much. the consumer electronics show kicks off next week in las vegas, showcasing some of the biggest names in advances in technology, a.i. is a big focus this year, and we have a couple of important keynotes perhaps to hear from. >> we do, one very exciting one to kick it off, but let me just first say in recent years, ces has lost a little bit of its shine, whether that was because of covid, gimmicky updates where the groundbreaking innovations that characterized the early days but this year there is an opportunity to revise it in the age of a.i. and the elements are already there, they need to capitalize it. jensen huang is expected to

get an upgrade announcement, they are up nearly 7% over the last session and a half and of that keynote, for the industry at large, the stakes are high, the pressure is on, last year's high-profile a.i. release was devices from rabbit, remember that name, ultimately they flopped, but shipments dipped last year and lackluster growth expected for this year. adding to urgency, the digestion phase where the focus has moved from raw innovation to integration, optimization and scaling, investors are becoming increasingly weary of those ballooning costs, especially tied to bigger and better models, they are looking for roi in applications, how they could give us a taste at least of what we might expect or hope for this year.

>> it wouldn't be the unusual suspect, i remember when bastions sat with us a couple weeks ago, they said they will be getting a keynote as well. >> you have people like the delta ceo going, but they are still missing a big player, apple is not going, that doesn't mean that you're not going to see products and applications showcased on the iphone or other apple devices, i spoke to google as well, but they are talking about their google tv stuff so it still has a ways to go but all you need is about one killer a.i. app essentially to get the wheels turning. >> i suppose, we will see if the excitement pays off, thank you. coming up, today's stock market rebound likely will be enough to save the santa claus rally this year, and we do see some

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>> welcome back, we had a record year for stock buybacks in 2024 and we are already off to a strong start for 2005, corporate bond issuance is surging this month, my next guest expects that the surge even more, we have the chief market strategist, it is great to check in with you, especially in the year where there is a lot of concern about how we are trading in high evaluations and whatever is going to happen with the fundamentals. how are you looking at this market and expecting this pretty strong performance? >> well, happy new year, i think it is going to be a good year for stocks but a volatile year, we are going to have choppy earnings coming up in a couple of weeks, a lot of political drama on the table, the government shutdown battle, debt ceiling battles, speaker of the house battle right now as we speak. that is going to add to some volatility but the debt fueled buybacks are so strong that

overtime, they will overcome that volatility. >> that makes a lot of these selloffs a buying opportunity but you do know we are one standard deviation above trend, if we get to two then you want to be a seller >> yes, the buyback announcement surged in november/december, almost half 1 trillion during that time so over 2025, that money is going to get put to work but if it pushes the stocks up to high, i want to be a tactical seller but you are also going to have volatility from the voices that i just mentioned, it starts to push down, i want to be an aggressive buyer from a spectacle standpoint. >> i'm thinking more about the expiring tax package that has to be renewed and things like that or the conditions that have given rise to this phenomenon, still largely in place and the expect companies

to have the capital to use to do buybacks instead of a lot of the tech companies for instance have to use that for investing in a.i. >> these buybacks are driven by public pensions and insurance companies, those are the biggest investors in the world, they are underfunded and too optimistic about yields so they invest aggressively in the credit market, if something changes that, there is a credit crisis then we will revise that but i see things getting stronger, we kicked off this year with a great day after new year's in the credit market with insurance companies and automakers, being able to access the credit market and that tells me that the banks are going to access the credit market and leverage this even more. the one i think could change things is the opposite side, the biden administration put in a buyback tax. >> that is a great point, it is a tax that we barely even talk about, it is not a huge amount but still, if that goes away i

can only imagine, thank you for joining us, we really appreciate it. bryan reynolds of reynolds strategy. now let's get to the german word of the day, it is having a big impact on european energy prices with the dutch and uk reaching its highest levels in a year, and is this all about the ukraine pipeline shutdown or is there something else going on? >> the context is that european natural gas did cross the 15 year high for the first time since 2023, and there are three key reasons, the first is that it has been a colder start to the winter especially compared to last year, and the next is what is known as dunkelflaute, which means cloudy and winless days, finally, the flow of gas

into countries like russia and ukraine, storage is down from 44%, that needs they need to refill at a faster pace in order to meet the mandated 90% threshold by november 1st and that in turn could boost the u.s. lng industry, the u.s. is already the largest supplier in the world, supplying half of europe's lng, and they are up 18% year-over-year. >> germany has turned to norway for a lot of it, as i understand it, maybe australia and other partnerships filling the gap, at what point does that bring gas prices down to where they were in the good old days, five or six or seven years ago? >> i think we have to get through the winter but it feels like every single winter we say what are we going to get this

year, that is because particularly all of the grids are interconnected so that means if you have this phenomenon in one area, it is plaguing multiple countries so it's not as if you can tap your neighbor for exports and because they have added so many renewables, windows are working really well, that is great but when they don't, you have to call upon that gas torage and that is when prices start to accelerate but already we have dropped down, that compares to 14 bcm last year, so we are already going into a weaker than expected spot so right now the forecast depends on the weather. >> the question, can germany every -- ever bring their nuclear capacity back on line? >> even after the russia and ukraine innovation, they really stuck behind that, so it seems like it would be tough at this point, it would take at least a decade, that is what i purchased because they have been on the decline and they weren't getting the regular maintenance and things like that because there was always this shutdown moment, perhaps that can be turned around.

we have seen that in moments of crisis that it doesn't seem like they are talking about that at the moment, as you know, they are turning to lng instead. >> that works for me, and don't miss our interview with toby rice next hour on power lunch, and that is coming up at 2:00 p.m. eastern. and the so-called santa claus rally, with the s&p down about half a percentage since christmas eve, and we are worried about some near-term downside ahead, what he is calling the three body problem, next.

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persistent push up in the u.s. dollar, interest rates in some cases, whether you are looking at real or nominal rates at the highest level in two years and we have that persistent weakness in the grass in december, in some instances, some of the weakest we have seen on record, so it is really difficult for the market to make upside progress when one or all three of those are occurring, despite the fact that the typical heavyweights in the mag seven continue to hold their own at this point. >> if it were just the dollar in yields, we've got enough to have a problem in and of its own? >> i think the week breadth is a reaction to the strength in the dollar and yields, because you are seeing an impact, in the broad market the most, whereas the mag seven tends to be the least impacted by rising interest rates, we saw that in

2023 and part of 2024, so it is all correlated, it is all related to each other and i think the hope is that the graph in december is an opportunity and we could see breadth rebound, we are certainly seeing it today but i think that rally and the breadth to have any sustainability, we need to see rates in the dollar not only pause but pull back lower and we haven't seen any signs of that up to this point. >> and if santa claus should fail to call, that makes me think of the late great art cashin. >> yes, that santa claus rally is often talked about, today is the last day of the period, barring a miraculous rally, it is probably going to be negative santa claus period, that doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the year is going to be

off, there's been plenty of times when he had a negative santa claus rally and the year has been strong but all in all, that does tend to lower the average returns as opposed to if the rally were positive. the next thing we are going to look at is the first five days of the year, we are up over the first two days, so it is always tough to make too many calls over the first couple days of the year but i think over the last few months, the issue has been, and really since the fed began cutting rates, you have seen breadth narrow as opposed to what i think the onsensus thought it would expand. that is the issue and it is going to resolve itself for us to move materially higher. >> on the flipside of this because obviously big tech has been where the strength is, apple started off on a poor note yesterday, we had a guest earlier that said he wasn't surprised they didn't trade better today, and you think,

after a really strong finish to the year, where would you be looking maybe for an entry point if this correction continues? >> it is funny, apple was almost too much of a good thing, it had been up five consecutive weeks, 2% or more each of those weeks and that historically has been a pretty bad sign for the next month, meaning you just pull for a lot of the strength and you tend to see average returns actually in the -5 to 6% over the next month. it is possible it did a lot of its selloff in the last week or so but i think apple around 230 is probably better support. so, it has been a decent pullback but probably a little bit more to go as we head into the bulk of january. >> 242 as we speak so we need yields down and do down and maybe the rally can resume itself. jonathan, thank you for your iasuivappreciate it.

brn llan is getting ready for power lunch, i will join him on the other side of this break. stay with us. growing your business is easy once you know the moves. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

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