that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. and welcome to "power lunch." alongside justine kelly evans, i am brian sullivan and we are watching the latest out of washington as congress tries -- tries to pick a new speaker of the house. unless we seek a different path

than we do now, it'll not be enough to save the santa claus rally. the upside? the s&p 500 is likely to break a five day losing streak. >> looks like a failed first round. we will have more on that. two of the best sectors, energy and utilities. take a look at the second best stock in s&p last year. it's up 7% today. it has quadrupled, up 16% year to date and it's only the second trading day of the year. >> i have been here two days and we have done more -- >> energy! almost like we planned it. >> and this, something you will not get anywhere else, even anywhere else on this fine network, the winner of our best city for the stock market competition. this year the winner is -- well, it's surprising. we called it a deep tease for

reason. knit tara? >> oh, no. >> the two best performing stocks over the past year based in this city. >> if this is the same natera i am thinking of, call me. we've got stuff to work out. right now we've got breaking news. two big m's, microsoft and money. steve kovach has more on that. >> microsoft says it plans to spend $80 billion in its fiscal year which ends this june for artificial intelligence. this announcement was tucked into a microsoft post by brad smith who published it today coinciding with the new congress. he laid out for the u.s. and artificial intelligence. microsoft previously said

expect $20 billion in capex spending on artificial intelligence for the rest of the fiscal year. microsoft is sharing a hard number on how much it plans to spend. to put these numbers into perspective, google spend $49 billion, amazon spent $64 billion, and meta, $30 billion. we will not get the numbers until a few weeks. by the way, that's largest and microsoft's largest acquisition ever when it bought activision for $69 billion. over half of this capex will be spent in the united states. microsoft previously said half of capex goes to compute, meaning nvidia chips. also stuff like a.i., server apps, other equipment. the rest is just the land, the power, construction costs. a.i. is not a big business for

microsoft. the company says it's on track to generate $10 billion in a.i. -related sales this year. if you're keeping score, microsoft planning to spend $80 billion to generate $10 billion in a.i. sales. still unclear how well copilot selling and microsoft has never disclosed figures for that, nor have they told us how much a.i. spending on the cloud. no whole numbers yep. investors have real concern over when all of this spending on a.i. capex will pay off. not just microsoft but other big tech companies as well. they can dial back spending if demand for a.i. slips, but for now, they can't meet all of the demand and the spending keeps going up. >> there is a back story and correct me if i'm wrong, microsoft was the biggest investor in nvidia chips? and the stock is underperformed

somewhat. >> microsoft has, yes. >> do investors want them to be spending more at this point? that's a big number. >> this is a huge number. again, not unexpected. they have actually put a hard numbers here and they said the demand is there. they just don't have the capacity. openai, the hardest -- hottest startup relies in all of the infrastructure microsoft is building. a lot of it is openai, and either way, microsoft is taking losses from openai and they will start reporting those as well. >> they will have to charge someone for something. >> copilot is part of it. we do not have a clear view where they are spending. microsoft is doing some anecdotal, you know, this company bought this many and that company bought that many. they made a big hire, the head

of artificial intelligence, and his job is to get some of these legacy products juiced up and selling more with a.i., and creating that consumer version of copilot. again, so much of openai makes its way into microsoft so that is the challenge here. it's like product development but it will be a long time. side note, i was criticized for this, the ceo is building up the cloud infrastructure for what is a huge business today. that paid off and that's what he's betting on will happen this time. >> makes it clear they are doubling down in this direction. >> get everyone addicted while it's free. >> then it is $100 and you can never get one. >> [ laughter ] let's shift gears to energy with oil prices up 5% to nearly

two month high. energy did underperformed by 20 points. wow, 20 points last year. the s&p only 2%. the next guest, joining us ahead of their big conference in florida. i didn't realize it was that bad. not bad, but kind of treading water after a couple of strong years. do you think 2025 will be strong again? >> energy cycles tend to last a decade. we have had two down cycles, two cycles and we begin we are at the beginning of a structural up cycle. it began in 2021. with any up cycle there are periods of pause. 2022, 2023, two years of that pause. 2024 set up better for a variety of reasons. first, power demand and growth in energy demand including

natural gas. second, evaluations look compelling. had to pull back from 97 postelection to closer to 87, 88 right now. 83, evaluations. that should be closer to 100. ultimately we believe this sector has returned capital opportunities and in the past, capital stewardship was a problem in terms of how these companies allocated capital but one of the things we will hear next week when we have people converse down in florida to talk about energy, these are much better companies which have a much higher probability in the future of earning returns at the cost of. >> it should be 851, neil. i'm looking forward to going next year. i appreciate that. you are making a compelling case for energy, so why -- like, what is the technical

term? it has underperformed. we talk about how much power microsoft, nvidia, and everyone will need to power these a.i. dreams, to power the stock market, yet that power is not generating returns that our audience want. >> yes, brian. you've made a great point. we need to advocate for the performance of last year. those related to power in the power ecosystem have done tremendously well, whether those are the independent power producers, regulated utilities, uranium complex, nuclear complex, the quantums of the world, that a.i. related power demand has performed well and we think will continue to perform well. what has been left behind is oil and a lot of that has to do

with the fact there is so much capacity in the system. saudi is producing 9 million barrels a day. that in itself is 2 million barrels a day for two years worth of oil demand and that has made it harder for people to get excited about the oil side of the equation and the oil complex. that said, i think there will be a period of time in the future where will be in deficit relative to oil demand and that looks like 27, 28, 29 story. the oil market is on the precipice. we've just got to work through the two years of large projects coming into the equation. one of the challenges is how resilient u.s. supply has been. we've talked a lot about that. we do see maturity on the horizon and i think that will be a theme that will propel a better set up for energy as we think of the five year horizon. >> i care about oil when gas

prices are high in this country, but that's where it's all about now in the age of electrification. we might be filling that gap. one of the biggest exporters having five plants coming online. the size of this boom could impact the chip boom. this is a huge deal for the u.s. and i don't really care about oil anymore. >> a place that is very dynamic as we think about the natural resource ecosystem, it's power. 4.1 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity on an annual basis. that has basically been unchanged for 15 years. if we compound at 2.7% we will be over 5 trillion kilowatt hours of demand by early next decade. the challenge? the grid is 50 years old and we need to invest a lot. look over the next five years for utility capital to be up

versus the last five years. there is a tremendous amount of capital that needs to be deployed to get the grid up to speed. part of the reason we like quantum services and ny are group, we have utilities that are not boring. we have utilities, one of the more interesting complexes in the broader market. >> totally. neil, great to check in with you today. neil mehta with goldman sachs. let's talk about energy, gas, and america overall. natural gas prices have been soaring. europe facing big problems. we've got a huge polar vortex coming as much of america is going to get really, really cold. very soon. both of those things are popping natural gas and energy costs. you just heard neil mehta highlight these names.

maybe the eqt s of the world. toby rice, president and ceo of eqt , who i think is down there in much warmer miami. toby, you are originally from boston and i bring that up because right now in the new england area we are seeing about 75% of all electricity production right now coming from natural gas, nuclear, energy that is mostly natural gas. only 7% of all electricity right now is being generated by wind and a couple of percent is being created by trash or burning trees. >> yikes. >> burning trees and trash to make energy. we talked about this before, toby. we have a new administration. do you think 2025 will finally be the year we get more pipelines built in the united

states so we can stop burning trees to make electricity? >> yes. what you just mentioned is something that everybody has been looking at the energy systems that have been developed over the last 5 or 10 years in this era of renewables and they are scratching their heads. you know, why we burning trash to generate power? we are sitting next to the biggest gas field in the world less than a couple hundred miles away. why are people in new england paying six times their energy needs when they could use natural gas to heat their homes? think of this. over 30 million a day being produced right now. we have never produced more energy than we do right now but american energy bills are up over 30%. scratching her head because political force has overwhelmed market forces when it comes to energy and a lot of these bizarre things have been

allowed to occur but we are incredibly excited about this set up because we believe political force will take a backseat to market forces which will allow the cheapest most reliable clean energy to make its way to the marketplace. we've got more than anyone else in the world. the question is can we get it to the consumer? >> toby, great to see you again. okay, we will be exporting a ton of fuel. bills are already higher. the public will think it's because we are sending lng to europe and what have you, so how quickly can we build pipelines in the backyard when no one wants them built and solve the internal problems so the price can come down as we are exporting substantially? >> it's important for the american public to understand lng exports does not impact the rising prices for americans. don't believe me?

in 2016 americans began exporting lng becoming the world's leading lng exporter and we kept prices low. the real issue driving energy prices higher is the bottleneck created in between the supply and the consumer. that is where we come back to letting market forces work. the market can work and then what we are really excited about because we really want to dig into this and dig into the area of reliable energy systems. the reliability of the energy system we create, that means more storage to stockpile fuel, more capacity to meet our needs. you know, the era of reliability is upon us now and it's critical. >> there are people at home rightfully watching and saying, brian, we care about the climate and climate change. we want to reduce emissions. that would mitigate climate change. i understand and support that. our discussion, toby, importing

natural gas via giant carbon spewing ships from trinidad and other places, burning trees, burning trash, that is not the way to not only accomplish not our energy goals, but our climate goals. is it not? if we're going to keep using this level of electricity or even higher with all of the stuff with a.i. goes, we will need to find it somewhere and it's weird to me we would rather bring it in on a ship from the caribbean than pipette in from pennsylvania. >> the good news is people are getting smarter about energy but let's be honest, we have been too good at our jobs. energy is too reliable and affordable and people have taken what we do for granted. you see the energy crisis europe is going through right now as a wake-up call for the world. energy bills are going up 30% despite historic production

here. people are starting to ask questions and they are looking at energy from a holistic perspective and that means they will start embracing the reliable energy systems that we have. you know, climate is a really important thing and what's ironic about the climate movement with natural gas, people have been blocking pipelines because of their concerns for the environment but natural gas replacing coal is the biggest decarbonization force on the planet and people should be supporting natural gas pipelines because of their concerns for climate. that's the reality and we will continue to see more and more americans and leaders understand this and begin to support clean energy and natural forms of gas. >> toby, up 25% the past few months. we have so much supply coming online that i do wonder, fortunately for us that should keep the net gas price down but what does that mean for your company? what are your plans investment

wise or profit wise? how do you plan on profiting from this boom ? >> you made a great point. the exploration phase has unleashed an energy dependence that has brought a tremendous amount of peace and prosperity to americans, but now we believe the cost of supply in the u.s. for natural gas is around $3.50. that is the price to breakeven, but breaking even is not the name of the game. we need to generate something in return. we believe it needs another dollar on top of that price so it's about $4.50. that speaks to the maturing of the base here, but put this in perspective. $4.50, that is the equivalent of $27 oil, okay? the most cost-effective form of energy we have that your supply is one thing. look at the demand equations, whether that is continuing to

lower global emissions by replacing coal, meeting this a.i. power boom taking place, or meeting our export needs, we're looking at a 20 to 40% need and demand for this product. >> absolutely. it is heroic work you are doing for the world but if i'm an investor, i'm thinking why is everyone bringing this supply online at $3.50 when we need $4.50 or higher to be profitable? >> that's a great question. we are maturing a lot of the basins now. one of the things that has taken place in the last few years, appalachia. the lowest source of energy production in the country, this is where we operate, why eqt is one of the lowest cost operators in the country. those low-cost energy sources have been walled off because of this anti-pipeline movement and so what that means is the marginal producer that can meet

this demand has moved to the higher cost regions. they are going to be experiencing higher cost of supplies. >> right now natural gas is keeping the lights and the heat on. i'm glad the heat is working. toby rice, president and ceo of eqt, it is 75 n miami. >> toby, enjoy. coming up, we are waiting to officially announce the results of the first roll call to announce the new speaker of the house. we will bring you those details when we get them. and before we go, take a look at getty and shutter stock. they are reportedly exploring a merger. getty imes29ag, %. we will be right back. client: is it? at schwab, how i choose to invest is up to me. driver: exactly! i can invest and trade on my own...

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let's get back to washington for more on exactly where this vote stands. >> reporter: brian, they were done with the first roll call vote however the vote has not traveled down yet so the first roll call vote is ongoing even though they've already called all of the names. the end of the vote saw three republicans who voted for someone other than johnson. thomas massie, who wasn't a surprise. he voted, keith self. and ralph norman. that doesn't necessarily seem to be a concentrated effort to get someone else in. meanwhile we did see holdouts including chip roy go ahead and vote for johnson. we are keeping an eye on the house floor. we saw mike johnson, a couple of his allies, norman and self go into a room where they

probably continued the discussion. technically they could come out of there and say, hey, we would like to change our vote and vote for johnson and johnson would go ahead and lock it down. we could see them come out and ask for a motion to adjourn. that could give johnson more time to figure out a path forward. or they could come out and head into a second roll call vote. it will be up to johnson to decide which direction he wants to go in but we did see a surge of support from johnson about an hour or so ago. johnson tweeted out plan --

at this point, we are still waiting to see exactly what the final outcome here is going to be, if we are going to be moving on to a second roll call vote or if there will be successful arm twisting. >> thank you. on the show, the surgeon general issuing a warning on alcoholic beverages. and stocks are moving. we will get the details when "power lunch" returns. power outages can be unpredictable, inconvenient, and disruptive to your life, posing a real threat to your family's comfort and safety.

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we could practically skate there! booked it! sweet! you've got options. book now. ♪♪ all right, welcome back. i'm new on this show. kelly, are you ready? check it out. first up on the power check, jetblue. the feds finding jetblue $2 million for chronically delayed flights. this, kelly, the first fine of its kind. >> as a traveler, i'm sure you these issues.

>> not jetblue. i fly on an airline that rhymes with united. >>.net. u.s. steel sliding lower. u.s. steel is a national priority. they are down about 5.5%. >> and after a monster 2024, carvana down again right now. it is losing steam, down about 8% following allegations by a big short seller report that said the stock is in mirage. they made a bunch of allegations and to be clear carvana denied these allegations, but still, carvana! >> big fall out on day two. and gm and ford reporting their best annual sales since 2019. on the electric front, rivian met targets after a lower projection. it met the lower bar with shares up 22% today.

gm, 2.5%. >> and finally, a wolf for wolf. you are welcome. wolf research upgrading company chewy because i guess you guys don't have pets, correct? >> nope. i would love to have ne. >> why don't you get one? >> because you have to walk it. i don't want to walk it and cleanup after it. >> i have two dogs. >> let's get back to d.c. for the speaker election, or lack thereof. >> reporter: hey, kelly, we have seen two of the three members who voted against johnson come back to the floor and change their votes for johnson. at this point, johnson should have the number of votes he needs to become speaker on the first ballot. a bit of drama there but it

looks like he has locked it down. it does not look like they have officially called it at this point but thomas massie will be the only republican not voting for johnson at this point. this opens up the way to vote on the rules package and for them to get started on monday certifying the election of donald trump and right on to the very ambitious republican agenda including energy policy, border security policy in the initial package. it also includes funding the government by march 14th and of course, the tax package so they have a lot to do but at this point it seems they have overcome their first initial hurdle of electing a speaker and johnson does have the necessary votes. kelly? >> wouldn't you love to know what happened in that room to get two of them to change their votes? is the gavel down? is it official? >> reporter: i will be honest, it does not look like the gavel

is down. i'm watching the video feed and i'm seeing members around. it does not look like any gavel yet. i'm not sure at this moment what they are waiting for. the best policy is when you have the votes to go ahead and call it but we have been watching this situation very closely but it's looking good for johnson. >> incredible. the markets have not moved a ton when it looked like he would lose and they are still rallying this afternoon on the somewhat surprising -- actually, maybe some anticipated this. emily, thanks. let's get a look at the bond market. putting some pressure on the stock complex the past couple of sessions, we also had the report coming in better than expected creeping up a little to 4.58%. yes, still in contraction. today is the first friday of the month but we don't get the jobs report until next week. further ahead on this fine

show, we are going to reveal the top city out of 38 metro areas for the stock market in 2024 that hold the power city index. we are back, baby, and we are back right after this. >> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, global leader in active fixed income.

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now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™. all right, welcome back to "power lunch." we've got the markets rallying. s&p 500 up 1.4% and the news we brought you from d.c. is now official. mike johnson, speaker from louisiana, has enough votes to remain speaker of the house of representatives. joining us now to talk about that and more, the senior manager at global investments. don't worry, we know you are not a political person necessarily. you are here to talk about the markets but this news just breaking as a market person, is there any movement or fallout from this news out of d.c.? >> well, it's positive and shows republicans are more or

less united to chip away at trump's very, very ambitious program. that is a positive. >> okay, it is not like you're going to go out and change your strategy and buy this, not that because of the news there is little function in the junction known as d.c.? >> yes, and the big thing actually in a more general sense, increasing the corporate tax rate which was an increase before the election. >> i have a very simple question about bond yields. what the heck happened to bond yields? the fed cut rates. they did the bazooka. half a percentage point. they were talking up the economy and talking about rates but whatever, they are the fade -- fed. they've gone from 3.7, 3.8% to

4.6%. what did the vigilantes see? >> i think they have seen inflation will be a lot more stubborn than the fed had hoped. it is not going to be as sensitive. also the fed showed us it is very, very sensitive. the economy is strong. two, inflation is likely to be higher at 2%, maybe around 3% so bonds are not quite as attractive as they were in this scenario. >> how much is the stock market related to or, i guess, symbiotic to bond yields? meaning if we get a year does nvidia fall below 20% based on where that number is? >> i think we have seen in the

bond market the last two years -- and you can relate to this -- really the bond market has become less detached to the equity market because of the balance sheets, the banks the feds used to control in private equity. that is why we are seeing these movements we cannot explain but basically if the economy will grow 2.5% and inflation is 3%, really a bond yield of 4.5% will not be economic growth. certainly a company like nvidia won't have anything to do with the growth rate. >> we've talked a lot about nvidia, but target is at 112% over the last year. you like -- you are basically identifying the areas where there are booms happening? >> yes, and you can say the economy is only growing 2.5% or faster but some areas of the market are growing much faster

and that is where we should invest. technology continues to be a winner. especially gas related names. industrial names tied to the faster growing sectors. improving the grid, aerospace, even autos looks like it might be a pretty decent sector. we like specific sectors. >> we like the idea of rebuilding the usa, something like that. margaret patel , thank you. let's get over to kate rooney for our cnbc update. hi, kate. >> oh,'s thing in a statement it is serious about reaching a deal as quickly as possible. meanwhile the white house said today the biden administration will make a final push to help broker a possible deal to secure the release of hamas held hostages in gaza. mexico's resident new melle

suggesting her country would consider receiving migrants if the incoming trump administration follows through on its promise of mass deportations. previously it said mexico would push for the migrants to be returned directly to their country of origin. the president did not offer details but did say mexico what collaborate through different mechanisms. and finally, elon musk's spacex announced it would deploy mock satellites. this would mark the first ever payload test. spacex said the simulators will be similar in size and weight to the starlink. the test flight is planned for later. kelly, back to you. the surgeon general issued a stark warning about alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk. we will look at the live report next. >> crypto watch is sponsored by

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welcome back. a lot of the alcohol makers are lower today after the surgeon general has called for warnings on alcoholic beverages regarding cancer risk. here now with the details, brendan, what do you know? >> a new advisory calling alcohol the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the u.s. behind obesity and tobacco. the department of health and human services says alcohol increases the risk of seven types of cancer, regardless if beer, wine, or spirits. alcohol contributes to 100,000 cancer cases and 20,000 cancer deaths in the u.s. what does the surgeon general want to do? advise public health officials to educate the general public and calling for new labels on alcoholic beverages. picture those tobacco labels.

i reached out to the alcohol makers both anheuser-busch offering no comment. instead, a spokesperson at the beer institute saying we encourage adults of legal drinking age to make choices that best fit their personal circumstances. i spoke to a nonprofit about how labeling plays out and they reviewed to hear back in november, though rolled out in 2020 during trump's first administration. kelly, it is clear to investors this will be a washington issue long before a wall street issue. >> should we expect to see a warning label on a wine bottle or beer can? >> that is essentially what the surgeon general is asking for, some imaging like the trump administration said would have to go on cigarette labels. >> obesity is the number one cause of cancer. we should put a warning label on anything that causes --

>> hydrogenated sugars and oils. >> we should put a warning on gum packages because they cause cavities. how far are you willing to go with this? that is sort of the debate that will take place in d.c. before we see any sort of impact. >> mild reaction. thanks. coming up, exclusive data you will only see here on "power lunch." the por tyweci index. a familiar face, they lack the true ownership and flexibility of directly investing in bitcoin. with itrustcapital you can buy and sell real bitcoin 24/ 7 with the tax advantages of an ira. real bitcoin means no middleman, no restricted stock market hours. choose the path of direct bitcoin investment with itrustcapital because access equals opportunity. invest in bitcoin at itrustcapital.com today.

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all right, welcome back. do you know what time it is? time for more exclusive content here on "power lunch." we have been tracking the top in metro cities for decades. we call this the power city index. now that the year is over, we can show you who won the stock market for the year.

listen, they are equally weighted. there is no cap, so take it easy. in terms of the best performance in any metro area, kelly, it goes to austin, texas. it's 12 biggest companies had a median return of 47% last year, led by huge gains and your favorite, natera, oracle, tesla, and more. the only company based in austin out of the 12 biggest market cap, it was cup and cooler maker yeti. second place, by the way, miami. miami. summit therapeutics, royal caribbean, and more did well. and the worst in the stock market last year was our beloved philadelphia. it was actually negative on a

median basis. i love philly. great people. better food than new york, but not a great stock market. let's trade them. managing director of strategy at asset management, cnbc contributor, boris, feel free to chime in with your favorite city but let's start with tesla up 62% last year. what do you think? >> yeah, i agree with philly. best food there is. so austin tesla, obviously people like to select them as their stock but at this point it is a question of whether that stock is overvalued based upon the fact you view this as a car company or as a transportation company and if you view it that way, musk has his robotaxis and it's a

different ball game. it is hard to chase them but if you want to buy, you could sell 350 for $20. you can get a very good total on the stock at that level. >> all right. >> next, our second place performer, miami. royal caribbean, second straight year of gains. what do you see ahead, boris? >> this is the true tension between the growth of business, 30 million cruise tourists across the world expected to go to 40 million by 2027 and royal caribbean is the prime beneficiary to that. it has a massive surface at this point and cash flow only for nine months on hand. in many ways royal caribbean has better rates. it will help as much as good growth going forward.

employment stays relatively steady, royal caribbean continues to be a great buy. they are very, very leveraged to the upside. >> let's pick a name from philly. five below, the discount chain shares dropped 50%, its worst year. surprising. maybe ahead of the tariffs? i don't know. boris, what do you do? >> you have got to believe in a come back story. five below is hated. everyone is really, really -- in the last quarter they had a 15% increase in revenues and they have new management coming on board. if they can stabilize and have economic growth there is the potential to go to 125 from 100 currently. it's a great company. they just simply need to reinvent themselves here to come back. >> any other dinner recommendations in philly?

>> there is this place that is super, super famous. >> we all know about food. >> i love that solely knows how israeli place. >> i love philadelphia. i travel constantly. >> boris, thank you. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." have a great weekend. >> "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. make or break hour begins with a belated new year's celebration on wall street. the index is tracking to end a five-day losing streak with a brisk rally. the s&p 500 up more than 1%, more like 1.3%, trading back almost exactly at this moment to its 50-day moving average. helped by a rebound and several marquee tech