>> there is this place that is super, super famous. >> we all know about food. >> i love that solely knows how israeli place. >> i love philadelphia. i travel constantly. >> boris, thank you. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." have a great weekend. >> "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. make or break hour begins with a belated new year's celebration on wall street. the index is tracking to end a five-day losing streak with a brisk rally. the s&p 500 up more than 1%, more like 1.3%, trading back almost exactly at this moment to its 50-day moving average. helped by a rebound and several marquee tech leaders.

hat same upside data surprise also allowing for treasury yields to stay firm. with the ten-year above 4.5% once again as equity investor tries to make their peace with a less dovish fed and unclear fiscal policy impacts in the coming year. now, none of that is slowing nvidia shares, though. which are now up 5% better than that, in fact, over the first two days of the trading year and have returned to the upper end of the six-month trading range. which takes us to our talk of the tape. is the market now free of the indecisive december choppiness that dropped the average stock by more than 6%? and what are the crucial catalysts to watch from here as january unfolds? here to take on those questions is tom lee, a cnbc contributor. tom, good to see you. happy new year. >> happy new year to you. >> so, first off, tom, what is your diagnosis of what the market has been contending with here in the last several weeks as we have gone sideways and had sort of this negative skew toward market breadth?

>> markets kind of did flail into the end of last year and the first day of 2025 and i think it was trying to digest a few things. the pretty dramatic move in long-term yields and the dramatic drop in yields in china. i think there has been some concerns about macro issues, saw some events over the past few days. and i think there was general profit taking and some sort of, like, let's wait and see how 2025 is given we just booked two 20% back-to-back years. >> and do you think that those things will remain overhangs? obviously, you certainly is a bullish orientation, you feel like the s&p 500 can get to 7,000 by midyear before perhaps a pullback. if we're getting from here to 7,000 in less than six months, you're talking about, you know, 35% annualized pace of gains. how do we get there? >> i think one thing the viewers need to keep in mind, just because the calendar year changed doesn't mean that the strength that we saw throughout

2024 suddenly has evaporated. there are tailwinds building because the fed is dovish. even if they're making fewer cuts, but i think one of the -- sort two of important things happening early in 2025 is going to be, one, we're seeing manufacturing recover. the ism manufacturing posted one of the highest readings in two and a half years. it has been below 50 for nearly three years. and the second is that i think the labor market could be softening in a way, because whether you look at link up data or ism employment to tell us that the fed now has to be focused back on supporting the economy. so i think this month could be quite decisive in the sense we have weakness because of some insecurities building, but i think it is, you know, the same tailwinds are in place. i think it is a buy the dip kind of market. >> and in terms of perhaps the same themes being in place, does that mean that the leadership profile of the market you expect

to stay similar to 2024? it waxed and waned between megacap growth leadership and broader participation, but we finished again with dominance by the nasdaq 100 type stocks. >> investors still are going to pay for earnings visibility and that's why i think the mag 7 including nvidia are going to be important holdings. but financial conditions should ease this year. easing financial conditions does allow some cyclicals to post better earnings growth like financials and regional banks and industrials and small cap. so i think that the -- there should be a case for broadening of the markets this year and then finally, i think in terms of risk appetite, one of the good measures to look at how risk appetite is to look at bitcoin and 97,000, it is still telling us that this is still a risk on market. >> yeah. it has held almost all of its gains since that little poke above 100,000 in bitcoin. though i do wonder what you make of the relatively heavy outflow

we were seeing in the blackrock etf that holds bitcoin, whether it was just sort of deferred profit taking into a new tax year, or something else. >> it is hard to tell. and i think with the etfs, it is creating an interesting dynamic which is that someone who sells a blackrock etf doesn't have a 30-day holding period if they buy another bitcoin etf. i think in some ways you can see people doing basis swaps and stepped up and tax optimization strategies and not having to worry about that 30-day holding period. >> right. that certainly would make sense as tax planning and tactical basis. again, on small caps, it feels as if we had these false starts which in terms of the comeback for smaller stocks and many theories fly around as to whether you really need market bond yields to go down, you really need the fed to get more

aggressive or look like the start of a news cycle as opposed to the continuation of an existing one. >> yeah, small caps have been frustrating because there have been a lot of rug pulls, especially last year. i've been disappointed that small caps haven't sustained gains. but we know earnings visibility is better this year. you can look at either bottoms up numbers or median eps growth and not only are they accelerating for the russell 2000, they're still almost at least at the index level 2,000 basis points higher than the s&p 500 earnings growth. so, i do think this is a year where as long as the fed is committed to getting toward neutral, so that's a caveat, because, of course, of inflation reaccelerates, small cap should be an important data play to the easing of financial conditions that follows. >> and just in terms of what have seemed to be perhaps headwinds or causes for investors to pause a little bit in terms of seeking risk, the

ten-year back to 4.6% or so as we speak right now. you had this massive ramp in the dollar. both those things could be occurring for relatively benign or even outright good reasons. but it does seem as if the equity markets need to sort of figure out if they have the chance of being a little more hazardous. >> that's right. i think investors understandably get leery when they think there could be a 5% on a ten-year and that means investors kind of sit on their sidelines and see if the markets can handle it if it doesn't damage the economy or companies. and then eventually, in our expectation is that investors are going to be okay with it, even something with a 5% ten-year because that's a 20 pe for a risk rebond. and existing equity pes can go up. of course, it would be better to see ten-year yields closer to the low 4% than 5%. >> right, yeah. seems like that's where equity investors are slightly more comfortable, though.

again, you can kind of make your peace at different levels. tom, back to you in a second. let's bring in jason snyde and megan shoe. jason a cnbc contributor. welcome to you both. before we get into the whole big picture, i wanted to bring up something that richmond fed president tom barkin said today and gets at this whole idea of the interplay between growth expectations, fed policy and interest rates. he essentially was pretty positive on the growth profile in general and essentially saying, you know, we can stay restricted for a little while longer, very wait and see type of messaging. he expects more upside than downside in terms of growth, labor market more likely to break toward hiring than firing. and bond yields did lift after this. you happen to think, megan, that perhaps the fed is going to have to be forced to do more cutting. why might that be? >> yeah, and i think that bergen's comments do summerize the gist of what we have gotten

in terms of the tone from the fed of late. and our view is that relative to consensus expectations, we are a bit more concerned about growth and less concerned about inflation. we just do not see the ingredients needed to have inflation materially reaccelerate. we think it could be sticky on a year over year basis, but will continue to trend lower. and in fact, we're a bit more concerned about the state of the labor market and the state of the consumer, which on the surface has been very strong but as tom mentioned before, if you look at some real time job opening data, jolts and different metrics of job openings, they are plummeting. we're really not seeing any sign of them leveling off. if they continue to move lower, that will start to show up in real weakening of the labor market. and that should also curb consumer spending which, again, on the whole, has been relatively strong. but if you dig down into what consumers are spending on, it is an increase and a lot of sort of

must haves, medical bills and other necessities rather than discretionary items. so, we think that the fed will be cutting considerably more than they indicated in their summary of economic projections, which should help the market on the whole. but we are attuned to weakening of the overall economic backdrop as well. >> so i suppose the fact that the fed's most fixated in terms of the metrics and growth indicators, most fixated on labor markets to take their cue from there, that's the positive in the sense that any further weakness would pull a strong fed response. on the other hand, historically when the fed is getting more aggressive in terms of easing to prevent a downturn, that's when stocks struggle. how would you reconcile that, meghan. >> yeah, i think if the fed is easing because the labor market is deteriorating, that could be a concern. but we think that we can still strike the right balance and achieve that soft landing.

our gdp forecast say little bit below consensus for next year, we think that easing will help and that could be very different from what we have seen historically, which is that the fed or more often than not have been behind the eight ball, cutting when the -- when it is too late and when the economy is heading into recession. but recession is not our expectations. we think it could be a good year for equities, just probably not the returns that we have seen over the last couple of years. so a little bit more about staying invested, we are modestly overweight to our benchmark. but really just sort of managing expectations from here. >> jason, as the early action not just this year, i guess, but really leading up to the turn of the year given you any reason to rethink the overall trend of things? what is your, i guess, top line observation of how you want to approach this year? >> yeah, i think there has been a little bit of digestion. momentum is really strong last

year. the momentum factoring in of itself was up 48% in 2024. i think there is a little bit of digestion in the last few days of the year. and then i think what we had in middle of december is we had a hawkish cut with the fed talking about they're not going to be on auto pilot in terms of lowering rates in 2025. more wait and see mode. i think that was another pill that the market has had a difficult time digesting over the last couple weeks. but i think as we turn to the -- turn the calendar to the new year, obviously where we are now, the other factor that we have been monitoring very closely, which you talked to tom earlier about is the ten-year. the ten-year close to 4.6, floating higher. i think the market may sniff out concerns. what is the fed story going to look like and what are potentially tariffs talk going to look like into 2025?

and i think that has been part of the catalyst in what has been moving the ten-year. i think that's something that is for us closely to monitor, you know. we saw what happened in 2022, coming off two strong years in the market. i do think there is opportunity, particularly with earnings in the next two weeks. but we're definitely in a more patient mode as we review all the various factors as we look at the markets. >> yeah, i guess, you know, the lack of policy visibility as much as there are many expectations about what policy moves might be made this coming year. but the lack of policy visibility often causes the market to kind of migrate back toward the known quantities of megacap tech. it is going to happen in december. you're pretty well exposed in that area. have you seen any reason to either lighten up there or, i guess either press -- press the

bets? >> there is no doubt about it, mike, that obviously these names have done phenomenal in 2024 and we will be doing some trimming. i definitely don't think they will trade as a they didn't last year when microsoft being the laggard there, only up 12%, 13% in 2024. so, for us, we favor amazon as it relates to the mag 7. i think they really strengthen their operating leverage as they look to aws and the cloud. the margin growth there was phenomenal. operating profit was up 50% year over year. the cloud growth was up 19% year over year as well. so, there will be picks in that -- in that space. nvidia will be another great story. but i don't think all is well there. i don't think they'll all do phenomenal in the way they did a lot in 2024. so, you know, we're going to pick and choose, but looking to

trim some of the high flyers from 2024. >> in fact, it has been beneficial in a way that the mag 7 have gone their own way at times and kind of kept volatility lower. it kept the whole nasdaq from maybe getting a little bit overheated all at once. tom, i wonder what your thought is about the general expectations level of investors and wall street and strategists and such. the last couple of years as we started january, people were able to point to a really deep well of skepticism and you had very modest s&p targets on the sell side, a lot of economists saying we're at risk of recession. there is not a lot of that as we start 2025. basically bullish consensus, feeling like a lot of things are prime to work. is that a concern? >> it always is a concern because we know when you get to a top, it is because investors have now made a judgment error thinking stocks don't have downside risk. i don't think we're at that point yet because we know that

shorting activity has increased pretty sharply in the past few weeks and speaking to our own clients, many have been skeptical about how stocks can do in 2025 because they view it as a stock picker's market, given the back to back gains. i think the institutional universe isn't as bullish as many believe they would be, because i think many just think, you know, a lot is priced in. on the noninstitutional side, i think when we look at the feedback from our clients, they feel pretty beaten up since mid-december. i think that sort of drawdown has actually taken out a lot of bullish expectations. so i don't think people are bearish, but i don't think they're as bullish as many investors claim they are. >> the surveys have shown a little bit of moderating bullishness, some positioning data as well. meghan, for an investor who is, i guess, got a more diversified portfolio, you're looking at this year, what stocks gave you last year, and maybe what the

bond market is offering there, is there any kind of clear moves or reorientations you think they should be making? >> well, i think for one we will -- we have recommended and will probably see other investors rebalancing because you had stellar returns for the equity market, really lackluster for bonds. going forward, actually, where you have the yield on an aggregate bond index, and where we expect rates to go, you're probably looking at pretty decent annualized returns over a three to five-year basis for bonds. so we're neutral to fixed income. and recently we took down our equity overweight trimming from u.s. small cap, a little bit more cautious than tom is on the small cap space. but i would say, stay underweight to cash, stay neutral to fixed income. the obvious risk is upside risk to rates, which we talked about and certain policies from the

new administration could put upward pressure on yields and we would look at this 4.5% level on the ten-year to add volatility. but 5% level to really be a bit of a red flag. so, as we're looking at positioning, again, it is about rebalancing, staying fully invested in equities, a little bit overweight and neutral. >> yeah. we only really touched 5% real briefly in this cycle. before that, go back a long way since we did have to contend with that. see how it goes if we get there. tom, jason, and meghan, thanks so much. appreciate it. let's send it over to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> shares of u.s. steel are tumbling after president biden blocked the $15 billion takeover of u.s. steel by japan's nippon steel. the president said national security which u.s. steel and nippon steel pushed back on calling biden's decision unlawful. u.s. steel is down about 5% today. and block is popping now.

raymond james upgrading from outperform from market perform. they said they have greater confidence in block's 2025 acceleration story with estimates for double digit growth just this year alone. shares are up over 6% right now. mike? >> kristina, thank you. congress re-electing mike johnson to be house speaker just last hour. let's send it over to emily wilkins in washington for more on how this all came about. emily? >> dramatic day in d.c., but republicans have survived their first test of the new congress, re-electing mike johnson who is speaking now from the house floor as speaker on the first ballot. there was still some drama, though, three lawmakers initially voted for someone other than johnson. while another handful of holdouts held their votes until the end. not signaling how they would vote. eventually every single republican, save for one, thomas massie, did back johnson. johnson got everyone on board in part through promising a working group to help coordinate between

doge and lawmakers on cutting federal spending. but some republicans, they still have reservations. the house freedom caucus released a letter moments ago signed by 11 lawmakers saying that there is always room to negotiate on the so-called leadership positions under the rules. personalities can be debated later, but right now there is zero room for error on the policies the american people demanded when they voted for president trump. ones necessary to save the country. and the letter goes on to name several of those policies that members want to see including, of course, cutting federal spending. so, mike, today is definitely a win for mike johnson, but, of course, the real challenge lies ahead, getting consensus on things like raising the debt limit, getting near unanimous agreement on immigration, funding the government. those are really tricky battles. it is definitely taking the w today for johnson. but we're going to have to see because certainly there is still some trouble out there, still reservations and that could is a

big impact in exactly how much republicans are able to get done. >> for sure. tight margins, lots of different priorities. emily, thank you. could be one of the reasons the stock market is exhaling a little bit, getting past this hurdle today. we're just getting started here. up next, your 2025 tech playbook. lo toney is standing by with what he's expecting from that sector and how he thinks a new administration could impact big tech. that's after this break. we're live from the new york stock chge u' watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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the nasdaq outperforming today. can the tech sector maintain its momentum into 2025? let's ask cnbc contributor lo toney of plexo capital.

you get into a new year and maybe it is logical to ask has much changed in the way of the big themes and the trends that have been under way for a while, i had to point to this microsoft story today, the company saying it is going to spend $80 billion this year on new data centers. more than half of that in the u.s. you have the biggest companies spending that urgently, i guess the big money, if not the smart money, is betting the trends are well entrenched. >> without -- first, thanks for having me and happy new year. and, yes, to your point, without question, we have seen the momentum building up. we saw early on experimentation, but now we're actually seeing full scale deployment rapidly and i think the investment by microsoft, the announced investment, reflects that. >> and then how do we think about -- i know it is almost become trite now to talk about the expected return on this spending, the payoff and

presumably they feel as if they have to do it and know how to get paid for it. but what does it mean for other players? these companies like microsoft, like amazon, for a long time, or metaphor meta, for sure, were seen as profit machines that sustain themselves, all network effects, and now they're spending tens of billions each to create physical infrastructure with the hope of getting paid down the road. does it change the basic equation in terms of how we should think about these businesses? >> well, that's a good point. when we think about the models that were most attractive, these are what we like to call increasing returns odels, where the ability to write code once and to be able to deploy it as many times as possible was the reason that we saw such incredible margins from these companies. and the infrastructure required was not as significant as the

need is today, to your point about the rapid growth of the services that revolve around a.i. that requires much more compute power, which is why we're seeing these massive investments. so, to your point, yes, it does slightly change the calculus and those are things that we'll need to look to, to better understand, you know, what will be the potential new margin from the increase in this new line of business that requires this additional infrastructure investment. >> and what about new players, smaller companies, you know, those that would try and participate in this emerging ecosystem, but don't have that scale. so, i mean, is it just going to be about software around the edges of this stuff, are we going to see a handoff as we did with the buildout of the internet from the hardware creators and networking and broadband into software and when might that happen? >> yeah, you know, these are

some really interesting points that are being raised because when we look at the innovation cycles, when new technology or new platforms in particular typically emerge, there is this restructuring or emergence of new players. the challenge that we see today is that some of the requirements that we have talked about, particularly those infrastructure requirements, are just so massive in terms of the amount of capital required. that's going to reduce the level of competition in certain areas. however, we still believe there is plenty of room left for innovation to your point around some of the other edges and areas within the entire ecosystem. so, we're very bullish on the ability for new players to be able to emerge, you know. whether that's some of the existing names we hear today like openai, anthropic, a plexo capital portfolio company, there are other areas.

and i think what we'll start to see is we'll start to see some more specialized areas within a.i., if we're going to talk about a.i. or in some of the other areas that are going to be supportive players within the ecosystem. >> one of the ways i guess that the market gets its arms around what the opportunities are, and how to leverage these big trends is through the ipo process. you have a lot of deals coming, these companies kind of -- they try to give you their pitch, you evaluate how they perform in the market, whether the business models work. presumably we're going to have to start seeing some more on that front just because it would seem to be some pent-up issuance here. >> without question. there is probably about 700 unicorns within the private markets that are looking for liquidity. that liquidity is important. it is important to the innovation cycle. we need the ability for companies to ipo, to have better

exposure to a broader set of retail investors, to be able to return capital back to investors so that they can recycle and invest in the next innovation curve. and we just haven't seen the ability to have the window open for that ipo pipeline. we saw some glimmers of hope without question, service titan reddit, which was a plexo capital portfolio company as well. and we're bullish on what we see in the pipeline, companies like look at chime, or klarna or turo. but we're still not ready to get back to that robust period in my opinion of 2020, 2021, you know. but we're on the right path. so, without question i think we will see opening the window a little bit and some more companies come out. if we see those companies perform well, that bodes well for the entire ecosystem. >> yeah, i mean, any one of

those names that you just kind of threw out there would probably be a pretty substantial deal. we're not talking, i guess, about the real early stage startups just trying to grab some public capital. >> that's right. and the other area i think we should watch, you know, speaking of the new administration, there will be changes to the s.e.c., the ftc, and doj without question, the leadership will change and there will be a new agenda. and i think that will bode well for the big tech companies, the tech industry in general, whether that's public or private. because we'll see a loosening of regulation around things like a.i. i think we'll see a little bit of loosening around the impact of the scrutiny that is supplied toward big tech, when they look toward acquisitions. we'll now see a shift with this new administration away from trying to break these companies up and just trying to, you know,

make sure that there is more behavioral changes. so that's good. we'll see more m&a, which also, again, back to funding innovation, capital will return as a result of m&a activity as well. all these factors will lay well, i believe, for the next four years with this new administration. the changes they'll make. loosening cryptocurrency. i think this is going to bode really well for people interested in the technology sector and things that are influenced by tech. >> no doubt tech and silicon valley have a spot in the inner circle of the incoming administration, see how it goes from there. lo, great to talk to you. thanks so much. g . hank you for havinme >> lo toney. up next, warren pies is flagging what he thinks is the biggest risk to the market this year and it is not inflation. he'll join me after this break. it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now.

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welcome back. stocks rallying today led by high growth areas like discretionary and tech. but our next guest warns many including key fed members are overlooking one big risk to markets this year. warren pies joins me now to talk it through. warren, great to see you. it is interesting, you know, for as steady as the broad u.s. economy has been in its performance of last year, two years, we keep alternating between a growth scare and inflation panic, feels like economic volatility as far as the market is concerned, risk

getting out of control. what are we in for as we get into 2025? >> yeah, thanks for having me and happy new year. what you're describing is what we have talked about before, which is this is the soft landing path. it is just this oscillation between growth and inflation fears. my view is that -- our view at 3fourteen is we're moving into this next phase of the economy, which is 2025 is going to be a year where we all kind of collectively try to discover what is the true nature of this economy, if you put this in economist lingo, where is the neutral rate of interest? neutral rate of interest is basically the interest rate the fed -- where inflation and growth is perfectly balanced. inflation and job losses. so, basically, i think that the fed in their most recent s&p and most market participants and basically have gone too far into this inflation concern. my view is inflation is going to

fall pretty hard this year and really the number one risk to the market is growth. and so neutral is going to -- we're going to get to the end of the year. the bottom line is get to the end of this year and i think collectively everyone is going to be wondering if neutral has changed that much post pandemic. it is much lower than what people expect. >> interesting, so you say the fed seems to be misinterpreting bond market signals. by that, you mean that the fact that treasury yields have gone up a fair bit, since the september initial cut and further after the december fed meeting, that fed officials see that as the market bracing for more inflation and you say it is not that? >> yeah, i mean, i think that's a very common misperception that i'm seeing out in the market right now, is that, you know, we had -- like you said, 100 basis point rise in the ten-year after the september cut. and the -- i think one really predominant mirror is the fed made a policy mistake by cutting

rates. that ignores initial conditions. if you go into that first rate cut, the fed fund rate was well ahead, inverted with the two-year yield and the ten-year yield. we never had that kind of inversion at the start of the cut cycle. that was the bond market's way of telling the fed that there was a real concern around growth and there was a recession priced in to the bond market at that point. the fed came in, and they basically reassured the bond market and that's the rise in rates, the recession got priced out of the bond market, that was stage one of the sell-off and trump was elected and that introduced some policy uncertainty and ultimately was reflected in the december s&p by the fed. that was stage two. so here we are at 4.6% on the ten-year, 7 plus percent on 30-year mortgage rate and ask yourself when it comes to the neutral discussion i talked about, can the u.s. economy handle a 7% plus mortgage rate? i think the evidence is going to

become clear as we move through q1 of this year and into q2 the real estate market in particular in the u.s. economy broadly can't handle this level of interest rates. so it is going to force the fed to cut. it just depends on the real question for us all is what kind of pain we have to experience along the path. >> yeah. because you really can look at the december market activity and say this is essentially what the market was suggesting, right? you saw as yields went up, housing related stocks went down, but so did other cyclicals. banks had a big reset lower, industrials as well. so i guess the point is, you alluded to it, what do we have to go through before we get to a point where either the fed capitulates this view or you have, you know, i guess stock prices discounted in advance and can recover. >> yes, 7.5% peak to trough correction on equal weight in the month of december, i think

that's a taste of what we have in store for us. it depends on how hawkish the fed wants to be. this is our view, we're bullish on the market. we think the soft landing is in tact, but fed has to cut. we have 100 basis point of fed cuts in our base case projection. and i think that our view is that they're going to be a greater than 10% correction in the first half of this year. and it is going to relate back to this growth scare. so, i do think it is going to be one of those things we have to keep our eyes out and wait to see when that growth scare starts to capture the market's attention. our view, our framework is going to be looking at the housing market in watching those home builders in particular. you're seeing stale inventory completed inventory at the largest builders like dr horton has backed up. inventory has been on the market for more than six month is at a multiyear high. that's going to be the very first domino to fall in this growth scare. so that's what we're watching. i think a few months before it

starts but, yeah, it will be some pain. >> yeah, and i know along those lines you do fixate on the construction employment, which might look a little fragile as well. appreciate it. thanks a lot for laying out your view here. >> thank you for having me. >> up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. here is kristina with those. >> one stock soaring over 100% on a collaboration, nvidia. and private label pet food all the rage and one stock is benefiting. i'll have those details next. (wind, rain and rolling thunder) (♪♪) nobody's born with grit. british anncr: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american anncr: that's twenty-one missed cuts in a row. (car trunk slammed shut) for eighty-nine years, morgan stanley has offered clients

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14 minutes to the closing bell. s&p up 1.2%. let's get back to kristina. >> nvidia continues, this time with shares up after cerence announced a collaboration with nvidia. it is important to note that this company is a smaller firm with market cap of around $780 million. shares now up 144%. shares of chewy up 6% on a vote of confidence from wolf analysts. they point to improved revenue, higher margins and a growing line of private label pet products. also of note, chewy continues to open more brick and mortar vet

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welcome back. a quick programming note, don't miss a cnbc exclusive interview with fed governor adriana kugler 4:00 p.m. eastern.

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cause of cancer in the u.s. behind obesity and tobacco. saying alcohol increases risk of at least seven types of cancer regardless of type of alcohol contributing to nearly 100,000 cancer cases and 20,000 cancer deaths each year in the u.s. the surgeon general calling for several action items most notably new labels on alcoholic beverages warning of cancer. picture those tobacco labels you might be thinking of. alcoholmakers offering no comment, pointing instead to trade organizations. svp science and research at the distilled spirits council saying this one will be one that washington has to digest before wall street does, constellation off session lows. >> those stocks, many had been quite weak going into this. we'll see how it goes from here. thank you very much. phil, quite a move in rivian. >> yeah. we'll get to rivian in a bit. we have the q4 results and what

we saw, we knew december was strong for the automakers. that's shown in the fourth quarter sales for gm, ford, honda, strong results. look at gm, up more than 20%. then we want to talk about toyota. toyota was not great, great numbers. but they had a great year, especially when it comes to evs and hybrids. mainly hybrids. they sold more than 1 million evs and hybrids combined in the u.s. last year. almost all of those by the way being hybrids and speaking of evs, look at rivian. posted their fourth quarter deliveries, better than expected at more than 14,000. and they also had deliveries for the full year coming in as expected at more than 51,000. that was enough to give confidence to the rivian bulls out there. we'll find out in february when they report their q4 results if they hit growth positive profit for the fourth quarter, which is what they have been guiding to all year long. or all last year.

>> yeah. definitely want to delve more into the bright spots there in auto sales. but talk about the airlines here after this action against jetblue. >> yeah, this is getting a lot of attention not because of the amount of the fine from the dot, $2 million, that's a drop in the bucket for almost any company. what is significant here is they are the first airline that has been fined because the dot said you know what, you had some flights that are chronically late and because they're chronically late, you have not been able to correct that, we're going to fine you $2 million. when we reached out to yet blue for a comment, they pointed out that we have seen significant operational improvements in 2024 including better on time performance during the years peak summer travel season. as you look at the other airline stocks today, keep in mind that this is really unusual, we're not talking about all jetblue flights here. we're talking about a small number. four, on particular routes that according to the dot were chronically late.

so that's why you have the fine of $2 million. >> you know, phil, i always thought that the gamesmanship on the airline side in terms of trying to get there on time rates higher was to pad out the scheduled, you know, length of a flight and say we got in under that, even though we knew it wasn't going to be that long. >> generally speaking, that is the case within the airline industry. having said that, having covered this industry for more than 25 years, over the years i've gone back and looked at where do we usually see the late flights. you tend to see the same routes not all the time, but particular airlines on a particular route, whether it is because it is to a small airport somewhere or for whatever reason, there seems to be always certain routes where you notice a lot of late flights. >> yeah, seems like this must have been the end of a longer process of the government trying to get some answers here. phil, let's just quick get back to autos. i'm wondering what we attribute the strength in the fourth quarter across the industry to.

is it more incentives, consumers are in better shape? >> strong consumer confidence, you look at auto sales as consumer confidence goes, so goes auto sales. and you had greater incentives. look, the transaction prices remain close to record highs. auto loan interest rates, they have come down a little bit. they're still relatively high compared to a few years ago. and there is substantial inventory out there. a number of automakers have substantial inventory out there. those incentives did a lot to get people into dealerships. >> yeah. positive to see some of that momentum, maybe continuing into this year. phil, appreciate it. thank you very much. and have a great weekend. as we head into the close, you see the s&p 500 up 1.25%. it is, of course, going to fall short of a gain over that santa claus rally period. it does end today and we would have needed about another 50 points here, call it 40 points in the s&p to get positive.

we also are down on a week to day basis, down half a percent, but a bit of a relief trade today, volatility coming down as well. that vix coming down below 17 and very positive market breadth as well. you have about two-thirds of all volume that bell marks the end of regulation. pcos challenge, the "closing bell" at the new york stock exchange. not exactly a santa claus rally. the coal is out of the stocking. stocks jumping to end the holiday week about everybody s&p sector closing higher and big pops for nvidia, palantir. welcome to "closing bell: overtime.." >> coming up in a moment, a cannot miss interview with fed governor adriana kugler. her outlook on rates,