takes time to either raise internally or have consultants do it. >> autonomy in the air or the roads probably a big story we will cover this year in 2025. meantime, more macro data, and jobs report next week. we will be watching that. >> for sure. and all of these storylines continue to play out. >> a strong friday rally for the major averages. that's it for us at "overtime." "fast" starts now. thank you. live from the nasdaq market site in hea of new york city's times square this is "fast money." tonight back in the win column after five straight days of losses the s&p closes the week with a solid rebound. could this kick off a jubilant january? we'll debate that? big booze warning. the surgeon general wants additional labels on alcoholic beverages, alerting users to potential cancer risks. the hangover for this sector is real. and later, the ripple

effects of president biden's decision to block the u.s. steel deal. bitcoin strong start to 2025, and tapestry keeps rocking. how long will the run last? i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa lee coming to you live from studio bh at the nasdaq on the desk tonight table for three in the studio here. karen, steve, and coming in reliterally tim and julie. tim, welcome back from a nice holiday. good to have you back with us. and we start with the markets on the rebound. the nasdaq and s&p both rising more than a percent breaking five day losing streaks. longest since april. the dow is up 340 points on the day, breaking a four-day downdraft itself. higher by almost 2% there. meanwhile, u.s. treasury rates on the rise continuing. the yield on the ten-year 4.6%. the fed governor adriana kugler sat down with steve liesman to discuss what's coming from the central bank in 2025. for all the headlines from that

interview, let's join steve. hi, stifel. >> hey, tyler. thank governor kugler seeing a stable employment picture on one side in what she called a bump in the inflation data on the other, telling cnbc in that exclusive interview the fed can take its time this year reducing straits. >> they view we can take our time to slow down maybe the pace to be more gradual. that bump that we saw the end of the year, until we see that that gets resolved, even on the other hand unemployment for some reason doesn't continue to be as resilient, we would be ready to act in a different direction. >> kugler noted the average fed official at the last meeting marked down the outlook for fed rate from 100 to 50 basis points. she wouldn't comment on the futures market pricing that has a single 325 basis point built

in. she was not concerned with the rise of the unemployment rate to 4.2 from a low of 3.4, noting it rose gradually unlike recessions when it can rise kick quickly. optimistic about productivity gains, could have staying power, uncertain about the fiscal policy outlook on that score she wouldn't comment on the possibility of slowing immigration under the new administration. only said it helped rebalance the labor market and has been slowing of late. the fed's response to tariffs depends on how permanent they are and whether there is retaliation. tyler. >> i was just going to ask you, actually, whether she addressed tariffs and that possibility because there are in those two areas areas that you concluded with on immigration and tariffs a fair degree of uncertainty as we turn the page to a new trump administration. >> yeah, that's right. and fed chair powell told us there are three kinds of federal officials, one incorporates something of what could happen next year, another group of

officials who didn't incorporate anything and a third who wouldn't say. unclear where kugler is on that. you know, tyler, it's like saying draw me a picture of the room but leave out the big elephant in the room. it's almost impossible, i would think, to think about a monetary policy this year to think about the economy this year without incorporating some form of your belief what's going to happen to those two particular areas of critical importance to the economy. >> how unusual is it, steve, for interest rates as set by the fed, and they have one or two rates that they influenced very directly, how unusual is it that their interest rates are coming down and longer-term interest rates are going up? and what does that signal? >> it's pretty unusual, tie lerl. it's worth noting, think people forget this, in the anticipation of those rate cuts yields did come down and now we have given back the largest part of that

decline. there was a need for the yield curve to rebalance in a way, that is to do get positive again. look where it is now, north of 30 basis points, i guess 32 basis points or so now, a positive 210 yield spread. that's good. but it's not good necessarily that the fed wants to bring rates down but they are not necessarily -- there it is, 0.319. who is better in the back than those guys? it's an interesting question, tyler. i am not sure we have heard the last word on this. the key here, though, i think is the extent to which the fiscal policy outlook and economic outlook have played a role in the higher rates. >> all right. steve, thank you very much reporting from beautiful san francisco. karen, how much is the interest rate backdrop figuring into your investment high pot sis for this jeer? >> it's important because i think there is this tail risk of what if we have an auction that really goes very, very poorly and we have an interest rate spike. that i think will have a very

direct and harsh -- >> affect the markets. >> yes. i think about that. to the extent that rates rise because the economy is doing well and there is some inflation but not a worrisome amount, that's sort of okay. i am more worried about the tail issue. >> steve? >> yeah, i think that we have been concerned with a market sell off. when you look at the long end. curve, it's more economic data versus inflation. and maybe they go hand in hand. maybe more growth is equal to more inflation. i am not really worried about tariffs. tariffs are more of a tax. so if they are a tax -- >> they may be very tactical. >> and could be deflationary because it -- the demand side more than the other side. so it's not something that's, you know, maybe what was -- >> tariffs are shorter term in duration. >> a shorter term affect on the

overall economy versus what was powell's -- what was powell's -- >> transitory. >> so it has the ability to be more transitory than anything else. i think people are so focused on pro-growth that's why interest rates have -- >> moved up? reflection of a growth hypothesis. julie, thoughts on the interest rate trajectory this year and how important it will be for equities. looks like there is a consensus, obviously, that the fed and the person that steve was just -- adriana kugler who steve was talking to, said the same thing, we will move slower than maybe you would have shout six months ago. >> i don't think they ever really change their narrative. if you go to december of last year, they were saying that they were going to cut rates three times next year. and guess what? they were right. most of the market had them at six or serve. i am inclined to believe them this time around because they were right and they kinda know what they are going to do and can kinda control what they are

going to do. i think what's really important is the interest rate backdrop is critical in small caps in particular who are more sensitive to that and the housing market. we continue to be in a place where housing has been really constrained by interest rates. those have really kind of gone back to the highs they were at about before. i think considering how much consumer wealth is auto tied up in houses, it's important to understand that in terms of their ability to continue to spend the way that they have been. >> you know, julie, i will turn to tim in a minute. stay with me, mr. camera. something happened that was quite providential. a piece of confetti from the other night just fell from the ceiling here, tim. and i want you to think about whether that is a talisman of the market in 2025. >> first of all, providential? great pull on that. i tell you what. i think, tyler, maybe it's just that you are in the studio with us one more time here.

i mean, this is an exciting day. great to see you. happy new year. >> i do clean up, too, man. i'm available. i'm clean and, i'll sweep, scrub the tabletop. >> so, the question is whether there is going to be confetti going off for the market in -- as a function of interest rates or whether interest rates actually keep the market focused on the same eight or nine stocks. i actually think that higher rates will be very good for the concentration of markets w i isn't necessarily good for markets. but i think that '25 could look similar to 2024. i know that's not people want to hear. we have seen broadening of the market the last five days, equal weighted outperform the s&p by 50 basis points, small caps outperform by 120. but higher rates i think, and again we are all, i think, talking about, you know, higher rates, 30, 50 basis points,

maybe 75 basis points. if we get significantly higher, i think, you know, obviously, all bets are off in terms of what we can say the market's reaction is going to be. right now i think there is no question that the dollar strength is a function of central bank differentials. the comments we are hearing from the fed also if anything will take our time really mean that our fed is in a position to be more patient and to watch the economy, which is certainly more resilient than europe's economy. in fact, this dollar move is much against the euro as it is against anything. we put it in the context of us versus at least what's going on across the board. >> yeah. >> go ahead. >> sorry, go ahead. >> no, i was going to say -- >> sorry, finish. you go. >> you go. >> all right. we will transition because i was going to say, you gave us a perfect segue to the next topic, the dollar and the dollar index

seeing the fifth positive week in a row. the green back trading around november 2022 highs even with today's sluggishness and the head of data expects the dollar to remain strong the first half the new year. let's bring in intelligence, co-founder and ceo of market reader, a wall street analysis platform. your prediction, jens. happy new year. your prediction for the dollar for the first half the year and will the second half be different and why? >> it's very hard to fight the momentum we have right now because as was just a mentioned, the u.s. growth is better than growth momentum other places, and the fed might get a hold in the next several meetings, might have a fed looking to be on hold while almost all other central banks around the world are looking to cut. so that rate differential will go up certainly against europe, certainly against china. it's going to go in the dollar's

favor. and we still have between 2 and 3% growth, which is pretty decent. this far into the cycle. and we have also tariffs, right. tariffs that will potentially impact especially the dollar against china, and that is a fact as well. finally, we have a lot of political risk around the world. we have seen in south korea, we have it in france. all around the world, political risk is popping up, right. and relative to to that, the dollar looks like a safe bet. >> if you look at what's going on in germany, in france, it is not just the former weaklings of europe. it is now the strong countries in europe, germany and france among them, that seem to be suffering. so what does a stronger dollar, just so we slow down here, what does a stronger dollar portend for american multinationals hat do a lot of business all other

things being equal, a lot of business in, for example, europe or in asia? >> yes. there are two things. the first is just the translation impact. the earnings of these companies in europe and europe tends to be the most important market for all the tech companies and so forth, they get translated back into a weaker impact on the dollar earnings, right. so that translation impact is there. the second factor i think has to do with the tariffs, right. there is a lot of uncertainty around what tariffs will be, will they be just in china, could we get global, so forth, and i think companies that rely on cap equities are potentially going to see a hit in the sense that a lot of multiple nationals are reluctant to make big investments before they know what's happening with tariffs, right. so the tariff fear is actually having an impact on certain types of cap x related to

exports. >> let's talk levels or the dollar index. had an 8, 9% move, really, in a short amount of time. we are kind of through at least the levels that we hit the earlier part of last year. once we get through that 112 level, do you think we can even really retest the highs of where we were a couple years ago? >> so, let's talk about in the context of the euro. so the euro is at 103 now, came back from above 110. we had a sizable move for sure. if we continue along the path we have been on the last couple of months, right, where growth is weak in the euro, so on, so forth, i think it will be logical to test parity in maybe the end of the first quarter. but i think the real issue is whether this political risk that's brewing at the core of the euro in germany, in france, whether that's going to start to

feed into bond market instability and create -- where it's not just a couple of percent, but it's actually a kind of a real tension situation that gives us another 5% on top of those few percents. i think that's the scenario that i worry about a lot and i think investors should take very seriously. we could be heading into a situation where there is tension right at the core of the euro zone, which is something we haven't seen before. >> jens, thank you for being with us. if i mispronounced -- pronounce your company. >> it means before the fact. so we try -- >> i got it right. i will be darned. >> you will be right once a year. are on day number two. thank you so much. have a good new year. let's trade this. karen, we were talking before the program about, you know, let's say you are prkt procter & gamble. what does it mean if the dollar is strong and you are selling in markets across the world? >> he laid out europe is an important market for them. you sell in your owes there.

you need more euros to buy dollars now. the u.s. earnings numbers are weaker. we always hear about adjusting for constant currency. we usually don't have that. it's moved. i kind of tend to ignore it, actually, because i feel like, i don't know, overtime -- >> washes out? >> maybe it doesn't. i assume that it will. and then on the flip side, you know, you have, you know, our goods are more expensive to other countries. >> to europeans, and theirs are cheaper. julie, does a strong dollar all other things being equal, does it strengthen the argument that american investors should take a look at, for example, international stocks, european stocks, maybe asian? >> yeah, i think if you look tat in terms of valuation, that's the opportunity for a lot of

investors to broaden out. if i look at the opportunities and you'll of the economies, u.s. still is the most dynamic, the best capital funded, the most stable with the strongest kind of gap accounting rules. and so i think there are opportunities internationally. i think there are wonderful companies internationally but you have to be selective and the backdrop in the u.s. is probably still the strongest going forward. that said, i'd rather have more exposure to companies that do not have to manage through their own dollar exposure and fx. so again that's another opportunity for small cap to shine. >> very interesting point. okay. julie, thanks very much. and we are going to take a quick break. coming up, no deal. president biden nixing nippon steel's bid to acquire u.s. steel. the saga isn't over. the twists and turns next. first, we will talk about ford. shares revving up as new car sales hit a five-year high. we will give you the numbers and how to trade them next.

>> announcer: you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back. uh... - right? - mmm... this store doesn't have agentforce, so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails. it's what ai was meant to be. ♪♪ it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up.

the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! carl: believe me, when it comes to investing, you'll love carl's way. take a left here please. driver: but there's a... carl's way is the best way. client: is it? at schwab, how i choose to invest is up to me. driver: exactly! i can invest and trade on my own... client: yes, and let them manage some investments for me too. let's move on, shall we? no can do. client: i'll get out here. where are you going?? schwab. schwab! schwab. a modern approach to wealth management.

what if your mobile network wasn't just built to work out here... ...but was designed differently to also give you blazing fast wifi where you are most of the time? reliable 5g, plus wifi speeds up to a gig where you need it most. xfinity mobile. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. welcome back to "fast

money." consumers feeling the need for speed helping to boost december new car sales to a five-year high and one section of the business seems to be doing a lot of the driving. phil lebeau has the details. tell us, phil. >> tyler, we haven't seen these numbers since 2019. 16 million. we eclipsed that in terms of total sales of new vehicles in the united states, best since 2019. take a look at the major automakers, they reported their q4 results today. general motors increase of 20.8%, 8.8% gain for nord and honda, and take a look at shares of gm and ford over the last year. why are we showing you this? because both of them reported their best u.s. sales since 2019. and then there is rivian. this was really the auto stock of the day, if you will. the ev play of the day as well. up more than 24% as the company reported q4 deliveries of more than 14,000 vehicles. that eclipsed the street estimate which was at 12,700

vehicles. production of basically 12,727 vehicles for rivian. as you take a look at the annual deliveries, they now, you know, basically flat year over year, but gives people confidence that perhaps they can make it through the period where they are trying to get through to production of their next generation of vehicles and that's why you saw shares move substantially higher. take a look at the auto dealers and the reason we are showing you this is because the sales rate was expected to be about 16.5 million. i talked to a few people who say their calculations have it at 16.7, even 16.8 million. and as i mentioned earlier, we are looking at the best sales since 2019 eclipsing 16 million. we haven't been there in a while, tyler. a lot of people thought we'd be here at end of 2024. they finally got there with a strong december and fourth quarter. >> so, obviously, post-covid

recovery i suppose. how did you square the numbers that came out today for gm, ford, honda with the numbers that came out -- and rivian with the numbers that came out yesterday for tesla? that's question one. question two, because i am famous for compound questions, question two is what was it that did so well for gm? what were they selling most of? >> well, a couple of things. gm has the pricing as well as a solid mix right now. they have done a fabulous jobs in terms of managing inventory. coverage transaction price $51,000. trucks and suvs a big part of that. ev sales are expanding quickly. so they've got the right ingredients, if you will, in terms of their lineup. in terms of tesla versus what we saw today, keep in mind that tesla reported q4 eliveries globally. they are issues in china, europe, and this is a company that it's fighting the headwind

of electric vehicle demand perhaps plateauing a bit in north america. certainly a much more competitive striermt in china and europe. so a bit of an apples to oranges comparison when you look at a makers and u.s. sales today versus tesla yesterday and those are global deliveries for tesla. >> interesting distinction there, phil. thank you so much. have a great weekend. steve, let's trade these companies. >> so gm by their numbers are, obviously, more run more efficiently. their gross margins are -- >> did you ever think you would say that? >> no. but it's all relative, right. when you compare it to ford, they look great. so ford definitely tried to turn their mix around. but gm, you have ford, the f1350, silverado with "fast money'. gm has done a masterful job with throttling evs, giving public what they want versus what they think they should want as the government has tried to

cram down lately. but when you look at rivian, rivian's always running out of money. their burn rate is about $1 billion per quarter. right? and first of all, i don't know what you show as shortage. i show 15%. >> 19, yeah. >> between 15 and 20%. that gives you the 25% spike every time you get a sniff of less bad news. but you are always going to have to be borrowing money from someone every quarter or two -- if you have between 6 and 8 billion and you are burning a billion a quarter, that's simple math. >> i am seeing more rivians around, it's a nice looking car. >> yeah. it's a good looking car. tim, jump in on the car stocks. >> well, i think gm and profitability, it trades almost sub five times earnings. i think you stay long in the stock. to rivian, their partners and volkswagen upped their, you know

investment to 5.8 billion in november and said they would cover the cost of the technology platform. the guide today is part of this is a company that stops burning gas. i like rivian. i don't like the valuation and the cash burn in the rearview mirror. i love the partners and the space they are in and i think it's probably going high early. to me gm is the story. gm is the story that still is not trading at a multiple that's anything close to what the company is doing and i think you stay there. >> all right. tim, thank you very much. a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: a big red x for u.s. steel. president biden officially nixing nippon steel's steel takeover of the industrial stalwart. what's next in the saga a as the hot roll drama gets hotter. and a trade war tit-for-tat. china hitting u.s. defense names with fresh sanctions as the u.s. fires back with hacking accusations. how rising tensions could impact the market in 2025.

you're watching "fast money" t de from the nasdaq markesi in times square. we are back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." president biden officially

blocking the nearly $15 billion takeover of u.s. steel by japan's nippon. biden warning that putting one of the largest steel producers under foreign control would crate a risk to critical supply chains, u.s. steel down 6.5% day on the news, and the ceo just responding to the news calling the president's action today shameful and corrupt. karen, what do you think? >> well, that's some fighting words there. >> now he is going to change his mind. >> so they are, i mean, they are taking them to court. they talk about it being an unlawful blocking of the deal. i don't know how this is going to end up and i don't know exactly -- this will not be resolved it would seem during the biden administration. trump although seems to be also against this deal. this has been a crazy one from the beginning to end. but i don't know. i sort of -- i understand the idea of it being an important company to u.s. -- >> to national security issues

and infrastructure. >> yes. but they are one of our closest partners. >> now. >> now. that doesn't mean forever. . are we shutting the door on any other m&a cross, you know, cross-border m&a. i don't know. >> julie, want to jump in on u.s. steel, nippon and ripple effects that could move through this sector broadly desfiend? >> i agree. i think the only winners are going to be the lawyers. i think it will take a long time to unwind this. there were so many agreements that were related to whether or not the transaction went through. i think it does put some kind of a chill on the ability of foreign companies to do any of their buying and shopping here in the u.s. for companies. so i think that that probably has a longer term effect that we will see over time. but i am curious what tim thinks. he is our resident expert on all things japan. and if -- what the implications could be for that relationship. >> resident expert, the floor is

yours and then i will wrap up with steve. >> that is quite an accolade, julie. thank you. look, i think the discussion around cfius and really this decision is one that is way -- we will see what happens under a trump administration who is also, though, critical of this deal. i would just get back to u.s. steel the company and i would say this sell-off is an opportunity on a stand-alone basis. if you look at -- there are a couple of different analysts on the street that say the free cash flow of this company is growing and by '26 you are talking about 10% free cash flow yield. and with steel prices, which can be volatile, and let's see where things go, but in the current environment this is a stock that's probably a $40 stock. there is also another bid out there. let's see what happens. they say they are substantially below that. would they be? i mean, they sound interested. i think you are buying weakness in u.s. steel. >> what do you think? >> this is a stock, a company

that both presidents wanted to be pro worker for and trump has said he is not going to let them fail. he believes they are a strong steel industry for the u.s. he is not going to let it fail. whether tax incentives or tariffs and technically on a chart this is where it should balance. i think it goes substantially higher. coming up, trade tensions as china slams more u.s. companies with sanctions. how the u.s. is firing back and what that standoff could mean for the markets in 2025. that and more is next. >> announcer: missed a moment of "fast"? catch us on the go. a bk on" dct.st meypoas wereacright after this. makes t. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley.

is a bitcoin etf the same as owning bitcoin directly? while bitcoin etfs might offer a familiar face, they lack the true ownership and flexibility of directly investing in bitcoin. with itrustcapital you can buy and sell real bitcoin 24/ 7 with the tax advantages of an ira. real bitcoin means no middleman, no restricted stock market hours. choose the path of direct bitcoin investment with itrustcapital because access equals opportunity. invest in bitcoin at itrustcapital.com today. i had the worst dream last night. you were in a car crash and the kids and i were on our own. that's

awful, hon. my brother was saying he got life insurance from ethos. and he got $2 million in coverage, all online. life insurance made easy. check your price today at ethos.com.

welcome back to "fast money." u.s./china tensions heating up as beijing proposed a limit on exports of ev technologies a tay after the country added 28 companies to its export control list. cnbc's eunice yoon has the details. >> tyler, it looks as though china aims to keep its ev technology in house. the commerce ministry said it's revising it's expert controls to

include technologies that are important for the production of ev batteries. this includes lithium and gallium extraction and refining and battery chemicals and processing which impact battery performance. it's unclear when the curbs go into effect. the public commentary period ends february 1. china is the largest producer of ev batteries. they partner with chinese and u.s. ev makers like tesla and ford. it comes after china imposed controls on dual items to u.s. defense contractors and a largerest by china to retain a tighter grip on global industry and supply chains as president-elect trump heads into his second term. tyler. >> thank you very much. for more, let's bring in dennis, a partner at meyer and does a lot of business in china and that part. world. welcome and happy new year. good to see you. >> happy new year. thank you. >> if president trump puts new tariffs on chinese goods or

raises the tariffs that are already there, you say that xi jinping will retaliate. how will he do that? i got to think that one of the ways he might is to put more and more restrictions on critical minerals that are very, very important to, for example, the making of batteries for u.s.-made evs. >> you are right. they are called rees. and those rees are extremely, they are really not unusual. you can find them in many parts of the world, tyler. the key thing, and the province 500 miles north of hong kong, they refine these minerals and that's where the chinese in the last couple of days said we are going to put a halt on these frauds that have a dual use, a military and a commercial use. and the chinese will not back down. i think xi jinping is getting ready for a fight with incoming president trump. >> and let's keep on this theme here.

if the new president of the united states comes in and puts more tariffs on, is xi likely to increase tariffs on u.s. im pors into china? what will his first line of defense be? >> i think he wants to limit the key elements also into the u.s. for the companies. i think if trump comes up with a 30% tariff tomorrow, then the next day the chinese will have their own 30%. xi jinping is in total control of the chinese economy and he will not back down to donald trump. so i do not foresee a very clear road going forward. >> steve? >> dennis, he might not wouldn't to back down to donald trump. reminds he of the cuban missile crisis. you don't think that he will blink first, but some analogy has been made to japan and china being in a deflationary spiral where japan lost 25 years. do you see the similarities to

china in a deflationary spiral as well? >> yes and it no. no, because japan has about 185 million people. china has ten times as many people. there are multiple levels in china where xi jinping can put pressure on, particularly on foreign companies that are doing business there. and i think that is really why xi jinping is much more of a challenge than it was with the japanese. do i see a deflationary economy in china? i think this year will be worse in growth than it was in 2024, but i don't see any significant value added because of it that. >> dennis, this is karen. when you see this tit-for-tat ratchet up, where does the u.s. threaten to withhold grain sales to china. how do you think this escalates? >> i don't know who president trump's going to do. my guess is, is that on a broad

spectrum he will immediately raise tariffs as soon as he gets in. that will essentially target those industries that have technologies that the u.s. considers to be of a national security thing. as a result, that's why china yesterday took boeing, lockheed and raytheon and said we are not going to sell any parts coming out of china on a dual use basis. and so i don't see a reason for either side to back off immediately. a lot of it depends on president trump. >> before we get on to trading, i want quickly, i don't want to leave this topic without talking taiwan very briefly. what do you expect to happen there, and is it a 2025 issue? is it a 2027 issue, which increasingly i'm hearing that that is where the real confrontation may come. >> if taiwan was invaded by china, tyler, i believe that

that would set off a global catastrophe. i don't think that xi jinping is strong enough now with an economy growing between 4 and 5% to essentially shut down the economy to take taiwan. i do think he is determined that china will eventually take taiwan. now, whether it's '27 or '28, i don't know. but it's not 2046, which is the 100th animals of the ccp. i see it probably in the next couple years. >> thank you very much. let's move on to trading this topic and china stocks in particular. tim, your thoughts? >> well, first of all, talking about the chinese currency, the local currency overnight breached 7.3 on the exchange rate, which is a level they have been trying to defend. i am not saying that they won't continue to try to defend it, but i think you have to watch the currency here and have to atch currency flight, that's something that chass china very nervous in the past. china is a market that most investors that watch the show

don't need to own. it's a market that selectively there are names that you can own. now, 24 shaped up to be the year that china sentiment was as low as i have ever seen in all my years trading international. that was probably appropriate. if you think about it, we had a number of trades within that year. i continue to think names like alphabet and tencent, as long as the government lays are, are not really china macro stories at this point. two of the most important tech companies in the world and i think you look at the balance sheet and the technology story there. but again i do think that the china macro story is now moved into a currency watch across em, by the way, trading at three-month lows. we talked about dollar. it's a big deal for emerging markets. >> steve? >> rare earth. the materials. >> what did you call them? >> mood rings. i think mood rings. mp is the -- up 11% today. i bought it this week. i think you are going to see

president trump ramp up and start to support these companies because he is so concerned with a lot of these rare earth materials for the issue with china. >> all right. coming up, you booze, you lose. that's the message from the u.s. surgeon general today. the stock is getting hit from the latest health warning. more "fast" in two. we'll talk alcohol.

i had the worst dream last night. you were in a car crash and the kids and i were on our own. that's awful, hon. my brother was saying he got life insurance from ethos. and he got $2 million in coverage, all online. life insurance made easy. check your price today at ethos.com.

it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount. a healthy weight can help dogs live a longer and happier life. the farmer's dog makes weight management easy with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come.

all right. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. a dry january for the alcohol stocks. the group lower after the surgeon general vivek murthy called for alcohol labels to carry cancer risk warnings. boston beer, molson coors seeing some of the biggest losses today, down more than 3%. our brandon gomez joins us with all the details. there has been for many years the idea that a little bit of booze doesn't hurt you and actually can help you. this would argue that that is not the case? >> yes, absolutely this is information we knew since the '80s, now a continuation of that research. new advisory calling alcohol the third leading preventible cause of cancer in the u.s. behind obesity and tobacco. the department of health and human services saying alcohol

increases risk of seven types of cancer regardless of alcohol type contributing to 100,000 cancer case as and 20,000 cancer deaths each year in the u.s. the surgeon general calling for reassessed consumption limits, educating the general public and he wants new labels on alcoholic beverages warning of those cancer risks. picture those tobacco labels. alcohol makers offering no comment, pointing to d.c. and trade groups. the distilled spirits council saying it is federal government's role to determine any proposed changes to warning statements. passing the buck to d.c. made me wonder how much lobbying power alcohol has. $22 million spent in 2024 led by ab, molson coors and other trade groups. so for investors, expect this to hit washington before it does wall street. >> where is the cancer incidence or the relationship between booze and cancers highest? >> so, with breast cancer for

women they found it actually impacts about 16% of breast cancer cases. in the u.s. so that was the highest concentration of impact for alcohol within the cancer category. seven different types, lung cancer, throat cancer, mouth cancer. >> and, obviously, a new surgeon general in three weeks time or maybe not three weeks, but roughly. and isn't it the fact of the matter that any kind of label like this would require congressional approval? >> that's right. i draw attention to the lobbying power that alcohol has down in d.c. because that is going to be something that is approved by congress. you mentioned there will be a new surgeon general. if trump's nomination is confirmed, you know, i was looking up her last interviews, she has said drinking less is equal to better health. and so the idea maybe she will continue this as the new surgeon general, but we will have to wait and see if she is confirmed. >> this would be an explicit

cancer warning, not just a general health warning or alcohol -- >> explicit cancer coverage. and it passed the trump administration in 2020 regarding tobacco products. >> your thoughts on the alcohol stocks and how they might react? there is, obviously, a lot between this recommendation from the surgeon general and action from congress. >> and i think it's actually a line with the way generally alcohol consumption has been on the decline. spirits overtaking beer and wine most recently the last two years running. there is just an overall trend with younger people moving away from alcohol. i think i have been amazed at how many mocktails i am seeing in restaurants, how many different kinds of seed lip and alternative alcohols people are coming out with. it's fascinating to me. i think it is a cultural change that's meaningful. i am not 100% sure it's reflected in the stocks here. the good news, they will be able to talk about dry january in

their next earnings calls. so i think we will get a pretty good read on the impact going forward. >> i agree with you, julie, that the incidence of alcohol consumption is declining and younger people are drinking a little less and i think middle age and older people are watching their consumption closely as well. julie, thank you. coming up, a luxury stock making money moves. tapestry hitting 13-year highs. what's behind it? the action, how to tra more "fast money" in two.

z's bakery is looking to add a pizza oven, arissa's hair salon wants to expand their space, and steve's t-shirt shop wants to bring on more help. with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee, they can think more about possibilities for their business and not the cost of their internet. it's five years of gig-speeds

and advanced security. all from the company with 99.9% network reliability. get the 5-year price lock guarantee, now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™. welcome back to "fast money." tapestry soaring almost 2% to hit the highest level since may of 2012. the parent company of coach, kate spade son a tear since abandoning plans to merge with capri holdings in november. up 30% since then. it was calling off deal the best thing to happen to tapestry stock? karen, your thoughts? >> yes. >> yes what? >> your stock was 41 when they announced and trained down significantly that day. i think the day before the deal was squashed, the stock was 51 and traded up to 56. the next day i had some tapestry

long against the calls which went to zero or soon to zero for the januarys. sold in the mid-50s. now it's higher than that. i did have this thought after that verdict was announced that is it possible that tapestry purposely sort of threw the case? >> get away from it? >> yes. >> get away from the deal? >> to get away from the deal. michael kors was disintegrating and, i don't know. based on nothing. just the idea of -- >> yeah, here is a nice way -- >> this worked out nicely. >> get out of it. steve, your thoughts on tapestry? >> i owned capri and i have a lifeline with the tapestry original buyout. i sold it on that pop. and then tapestry i just figured the same way that karen and i were on the same page. if the deal went through, it gave them a strong foothold. if it didn't go through, it rallies. i didn't see it rallying to 13-year highs. to so i have been in and out. i am currently not in either one

of them. i wonder if capri gets another lifeline from someplace else. i am more apt to buy capri than tapestry, especially where karen left off on her analysis. if there is anything nev air us with with tapestry, you probably don't want to own it. . up 30% since that deal broke >>ne, natr > xtfil ades. we'll be right back.

time for the final trade. let's go around the horn beginning with julie. >> i am a little worried besting home sales. i think new home sales are fine and should benefit. >> all right. tim, you're next. >> happy new year. diageo, new cfo, i think you are buying this weakness.

>> all right. there you go. karen? >> yes, first of all, thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> meta, i am going home to the dance lab. >> you like meta. all right. and steve? >> keep the m theme. mp materials. it's ubugop t ing higher. >> thank you, everybody, for watching "fast money." have a great weekend. "mad money" starts right about now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bulwark somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. friends, i'm trying to help you make a little money. my job is to entertain and explain how we have explosions today like a whole week of bad. call me. 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. you short this market at your own peril.