>> transition. they've got bear mold in december, snapping back now, it should, their stability and oil prices and hopefully this is the year in which some of their cold stacked riggs come back ♪ thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. president-elect trump calls that "washington post" report that he's pearing back tariffs the universal tariffs, maybe just on select goods. the president just now calling that fake news. what happens on that front we remain to see, but our market guest agree it will matter, stocks, bonds and currency markets and they are here with their play books. more consolidation in the media space and it could have big implications on sports. disney's surprising deal with

fubu tv shares tripled 4.534. what it means for the stocks, advertisers and consumers. partnerships with musk's starlink to serving shake shack, airlines are finding new ways to make air travel good again. this name getting extra love from the street today. one of the analysts who just upgraded the stock says it's mismodelled. and how much runway she sees ahead. runway, get it. today's markets, though. dom chu has those numbers. >> kelly, we reclaimed that 6,000 mark for the broader s&p 500. that's important. the last time we saw it was the friday after christmas. and so for the s&p at 5,998, up about 55 points almost 1 full percent. it's been a very positive day. at the loes of the session we were up roughly 40 points and roughly 79 at the high. so tilting towards the higher end of that range. but still, keep an eye on 59.50 or thereabouts.

that's that 50-day moving average that some traders are watching. the dow industrial is up 160 points. and the tech heavier nasdaq composite, 19,892. good for 270 points to the upside. 1 1/3% gain there. another reclaiming mark here is crypto currencies. bitcoin especially particularly back above the 100,000 mark. 101.703. it's a 3.5% gain over the last year. still that 131% gain. again, still in this consolidation area. the high level was about 108,000 or thereabouts. we'll see whether or not anything breaks to the down or upside. and then, the tech-heavier side of things very much a key focus. because the general positivity to start off the year around computer chips continue. now, there's a lot of maybe cross currents and story lines here. but generally all positive. remember, today, earlier, foxconn, the big taiwanese tech

manufacturing giant had their best fourth quarter ever, beat expectations, all driven by a lot of demand for ai. supermicro computer continuing that trend, up 10%. micron shares up 11%. applied materials up 5% as well. and of course, we're all waiting for nvidia ceo jensen wong's keynote out in vegas later on today. there's a lot of stuff going on. you get the idea. ai is kicking off 2025 on a very strong note, kelly. >> dom, thanks very much. the chips are one of the catalysts for the markets today. there's also that "washington post" report earlier that tariffs could be paired back or universal than trump said on the campaign trail but the president-elect since called that report fake news. both of my next guests agree whatever happens on the tariff front will have major consequences for stocks, bonds

and currencies. welcome to you both. john, i'll start with you. it's kind of a weird thing where whatever you think of the direction of tariff policy -- the way that i see it, i see more analysts warming up to the idea that that might be a useful tool for the u.s. in the long run, but in the very short run markets still want nothing to do with it. >> right. today obviously fits into that mold of it will be confusing. it will probably be confusing implemented second half of the year. probably affect 2026, more than 2025. usually -- well, what we think of it would be positive for small and mid caps. we haven't seen that happen yet. so confusions kind of in the air right now. but as yo said, it's one of those policies that will impact markets. >> was it positive for small and mid caps last time? they were relatively small last time as well. >> it was initially, yes. we didn't have the chip stocks last time. >> right. >> or the mag 7 stocks. >> what way does that change things now? >> it probably keeps money away

from small caps, more as there's more competition. that's what's impacting them, private equity, bitcoin, et cetera. more competition in that space than there used to be. >> where does that leave you? what do you think is the default strategy for the year? while all of this place out. >> so, you play cash flow and large caps. but, this year may bring a sense of income, the concept of income is back. that's what may help smooth some volatility this year. that's what we're looking at. so the 4% is the number we're kind of looking at. >> 4% is not that great, you know? >> 2% plus inflation rate it's okay. >> post tax, people look through it, okay. what did i really pocket from this? >> we're not looking at long-term themes. we're talking about addressing volatility this year. >> fair enough. jeff, you look at ity and this stuff all the time. as we have to wait -- it's

possible, the advisers mentioned in this "washington post" piece, the president may be denying it, it's obvious there are some in his circle trying to move forward with this idea of things being less universal than he campaigned on and one of the reasons he might consider a slight change on this front is inflation. it's been stickier than expected at this point. and any tariffs will end some near-term price pressure. >> i think that's right, kelly. it's interesting to see that tough talk that we've seen all campaign, prior to president-elect trump winning the campaign back in november, but since then, or since the insinuation that he was going to win, you saw the dollar index move higher because of those tariffs. saw an 8% jump in the u.s. dollar index. the vix out at 16 and ies moving higher. to john's point, there's a lot of uncertainty. catalyst for this move higher today is selling off here, catalyst was there would be less tariffs. the tariffs come with unintended consequences.

inflationary concern, but the flip side potential more revenue for the fed. manufacturing jobs may be reshored. all this uncertainty will probably not be unpacked on january 20th or january 21st. what you have to realize is the dollar index, u.s. treasury, 10 year note, up to 4.6%. that excite volatility. we're all focussed on ai. wonderful to see nvidia back above $150. you see the tariff policy be implemented and transact into the economy, that's where we'll see volatility. i want to be hedged. i like using a couple different etfs. dbef a way to be hedged also look at the wisdom tree. you want to have a select exposure to some of this. but being hedged here with this currency risk that will be a big theme and no one is talking about in q1. >> high dollar and high yields in the market, would you agree with that?

>> it is. and some people say 10 shf year note goes up to 5%, it would be more attractive. all the folks who dumped into 10-year note 5% and they were remorseful. so i think the risk in the market is look at today. we saw historic high, the top ten holdings of s&p 500 went up to 50% of the market cap of the s&p 500. the market cap of the s&p 500 is 46 trillion half represented in just ten names this morning. this vulnerable of a reset is coming. i welcome that to have the ability to have a more broad rally. there's no depth in the current rally. same ai theme, which you can't get short. i lost a little money buying puts on some of these names. will be a bit of a revaluation, kelly. >> john what would you add? >> three things ing against stocks. jeff talked about two, the dollar, yields. automatic stabilizers are moving up trying to slow things down.

now you have oil in the mix. oil had this stealth rally up to 74 a barrel in the united states. so now you have three items kind of pushing against stocks. tells us we need neutral economic news, let those come down a little bit. >> you don't want the jobs report on friday to be good. >> no. we need some neutral news. automatic stabilizers are going in reverse going up trying to slow things down. >> right. i take your point. but in the long run -- look, jeff just said, we need kind of the business cycle to be in tact. right? we need the growth to be -- we need all of that right now especially given what may be coming down the pike from this administration. >> yes. but you have a fed monetary policy that's going to be a tail wind. assuming you have fiscal policy that will be a tail wind. we don't know trade policy, tax policy, immigration policy. those are the unknowns. >> is the fed a tail wind? >> they haven't been a head wind. still saying they're going to cut twice this year.

to us that's a tail wind. >> okay. jeff, what would you add to that? >> to john's point, the $7 trillion balance sheet doesn't seem like potential misstep of cutting 100 bases points back in september, we seen the 10-year note go up 100 bases points. there's a lot of cross currents right now, kelly. i've been in this business for a long time, as you know. i have the gray hair to show. seems like at this moment in time there's almost a capitulation to the upside in some of these ai stocks because the rest of the participation will be important. but corporate profits are still in tact. u.s. consumer is still in tact. just seems like this is a linear move. john has been around the markets as well. things don't move in a straight line. >> give me a final comment on oil. to john's point how it has been backing up. now around 74 a barrel. it's not punitive for consumers yet. is it finally an opportunity for those energy investors who did up 2% last year? >> yeah. and chevron or exxon are two holdings i really like here.

what's interesting to see, if president trump can bring peace to the middle east, how will they rebuild middle east? such damage the middle east. what is predicated on all budgets the middle east is oil. the price of oil by some form or fashion of supply constraint you'll see the price of oil go higher. peace the middle east, price of oil will drop. buying opportunity. specifically in an exxonmobil or chevron. >> why do you think it ends up going higher? >> because they have to rebuild. how can all these middle east countries rebuild? they have to raise the price of oil to fund the rebuilding. it's an old play book, kelly. running for decades the middle east. >> that's fine. now the u.s. is a major oil producer. can't we just offset that? >> we just had 625 million acres of crude oil opportunity banned by the current administration. will that be a bit of grappling until that production comes online. that's the uncertainty john and i are really trying to up npack here. so much uncertainty when the policies will be implemented and get traction.

that's where there's concern. there should be confusion. the fix at 16 nobody seems to care, kelly. >> we'll leave it there. gentlemen, thanks. thank you, both. let's dig further into the tariff's potential impact on the economy. that strong services data this morning shows things are still humming along, little too hot for john's liking. the december number saw the sharpest output growth and new order since march of 2022 and employment increased for first time in five months. which universal tariffs if we get them, the expiration of the tax cut slow things down. joining me to discuss that, steve liesman. steve, you want to pick up on what we were just saying and, look, the data continues to be strong. >> yeah. i just got back from the american economic association annual conference in san francisco. and there were three kind of camps out there. one was if all these policies go through, it will be a disaster. on the other side, something we're very up beat about the policies. and there was sort of large

group the middle that says, you know what, they're not going to do a whole lot what they will do on the campaign. interesting when i landed there's that "washington post" story that says, well, they're kind of backing off the tariff thing. went with the whole group the middle that's like, it won't be that big of a deal. so we'll have to see. and then obviously president trump says that's not really a true story. it's really hard to know. it raises that uncertainty. i'll talk more about this on the other side of what michael says. but my big concern here is that president trump is coming to the -- in the fire trucks, coming with a hook and ladder to put out something that's not really on fire when it comes to the u.s. economy. >> mike, i can't -- you must want to wade right into that. what do you think we're setting up for this year? >> first of all, i agree with steve. the economy is not on fire. we see that in the data over the past couple weeks.

it's all been quite favorable, even with inflation coming in a little lower. in terms of, you know, policies, yeah, tons of uncertainty. kind of tend to fall into that middle camp that steve talked about. not because i don't believe the administration won't follow through on a lot of their policies. i believe the business cycle has its own rhythm here, if you will. some of these things are -- a lot of the economy snot determined in washington. and so, i think some of the trends we've been seeing at the end of this year should continue into next year. i would say the things we're looking at, tariffs, we're reminded again this morning is a big issue that i think is probably going to be front and center for the year. we think probably will be a bit inflation yar and head wind to growth. but we have to wait and see. which of the competing stories we get this morning and over the next several weeks is actually put into place. >> are you expecting a strong jobs report on friday, mike? and how does this all set us up for the next fed decision in three week's time? >> yeah. we're looking for more of the same actually.

we're looking for 150k, kind of what we've been averaging over the past six months unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. if we got that, i think, the fed would be okay being on hold at the end of the month, which is pretty much what they have been signaling since the december fomc meeting if not earlier. obviously if we got a surprise to the downside, you have to have a pretty surprise to the downside that could change that narrative. i think it's pretty hard to see upside surprises yet getting a narrative of hikes. i think that's discussion for much ater. >> steve -- well, yeah. we start talking about hikes, that would be a whole other market story. i take your point with bond yields and data are doing. you never know. what about, steve, the news that barr will step down from a supervisory role, stay on the fed board and while it may sound kind of wonky or inside baseball, it's true that this is bank supervision and perhaps he foresees an administration that will come in and either be

letting banks do more mna, more lending into the economy, that kind of thing, is there a larger macro take away from this? >> well, i think that it's part of a pendulum swinging back from the banks being very much under the thumb of government and regulators to at least some relief. michael barr was pretty tough on that. he did back off of some of his most extreme positions when it came to the capital buffers that were out there. and following really where the board was. i think it's really interesting that he's going to keep his position there. it requires the trump administration to pick from among the existing board members. i wouldn't be surprised by the way if congress takes up that law again and gives the flexibility to the administration to pick its own person. i don't know if they'll have the votes for that. but yeah, relief for the banks. we'll see how far it goes. i do think there is relatively good bipartisanship agreement on

the issue of being relatively strong on the banks. not as strong as we've been. >> so, mike, are you in the boat that thinks a lot -- i would qualify that as a deregulatory development. you know, dave was on the other day and says he thinks that's a big reason why we might see growth this year and effect is harder to quantify. do you think it will be an impact all these deregulatory moves? >> so i do think the effects are very hard to quantify. and it's pretty hard to see it in the first trump administration. what we clearly saw was the effects of tax cuts after the tsga, boost in disposable income and boost in spending. beyond that, it was harder to see, you know, very discernible effects in terms of productivity and business performance more generally. not saying it's not there. i'm just saying it's very hard to really piece that out. one thing i would tood the earlier point that steve was making is that barr is stepping down from this position means absolutely nothing for monetary policy.

you want to have the same seven people on the board of governors voting on rate cuts or whatever later this year. so for what the market -- well, rates markets care about it should be kind of a non-development. >> quick final question for you, mike, what do you think the odds are for rate hikes before the end of year? >> pretty low. >> so%? >> yeah, 10% sounds right. i think you would have to have an unemployment rate going back down below 4% before you get the fed talking about three dimensional or three directional risk here, which is right now they're just talking about cuts or holding, right, to get that add to hikes i think you really have to have a sense that the labor market is tightening back up again. >> there's always a fancy way to say three directional policy as code for maybe hikes would be back. i thought steve also talking about -- wasn't that a thing we were saying with the fed a couple years ago. are they talking about talking about -- maybe it was rate cuts at that point.

i don't know. >> yeah. they were not talking about talking about it. that was definitely something they talked about. kelly, just one more thing which is that i think what we might be seeing in this "washington post" story is this realization by trump's economic advisers, again, the economy is not on fire. there are areas where we definitely need help in terms of fixing things. but i'm not sure they're in the tariff world. i'm not sure they're in the world of kicking out millions of immigrants. i really think that the advisers of the president when they look at higher productivity, low unemployment, inflation is coming down. the fed has cut. growth is pretty good. look at mike's forecast. it's not a barn burner, but it's certainly not a disaster. that's really the thing you're hearing from the street is that the theory of the case from the campaign was wrong and we'll see if they start to adjust policy more towards really the facts on the ground. >> see, i can't leave it on that note now because -- that is a

big statement, steve, to make. >> i mean, i think it's accurate, though. if you think of where the unemployment rate. i'll give mike a chance to respond, but you have productivity growing. when you look at -- earnings are growing, the stock market is high. look, there are things we need to fix. there's the fiscal situation. there's education issues. there are issues about how much manufacturing want in different places. but it certainly ain't broadly broke. sorry. >> mike, i'll et you weigh in on this, but i would argue this country and the political class knows that we have a problem that for 30 years we're not manufacturing enough, the dollar is too strong, we're overconsuming, everyone wants to fix it. the economy is strong, we hate to dits rupt the ship right now, mike. >> i think this was a paradox the last couple months. look at the economic data that me and steve look at and it all looked very good and yet a lot of voter disenchantment. a lot of people are starting to

think that maybe it's not so much inflation per se, which has come down a lot, but that the prices are still very high and that the cost of living is still very high. now, that can get cured over time if nom mall incomes keep growing and inflation stays tame, but certainly, you know, as of last fall, i think a lot of people were feeling that even with good gdp numbers, price levels were still just too high. >> that whole story in the journal, no one is living adult lives anymore. we'll leave it on that up beat note. thank you. appreciate it, gentlemen. by the way, don't miss janet yellen's exit interview on money movers this week. that will be 11:00 a.m. eastern on wednesday. a lot of talk about how treasury is going to adjust its policy going forward now. coming up, disney striking a deal with fubo sepding shares of the streaming service soaring. we'll tell you what's causing the stock to triple and what it all means for investors and the media landscape. first, talk about making a u-turn, alphabet's self driving

unit waymo is back in the headlines after one rider's dizzying ride to the airport. we'll have what it could mean going forward. stay with us. >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to keep him lean and healthy. in the morning, he flies up the stairs and hops up on my bed. in the past, he would not have been able to do any of those things. is a bitcoin etf the same as owning bitcoin directly? while bitcoin etfs might offer he would not have been able a familiar face, they lack the true ownership and flexibility of directly investing in bitcoin. with itrustcapital you can buy and sell real bitcoin 24/ 7 with the tax advantages of an ira.

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hold, $20 price target, about 40% upside. analysts see significant optionalty despite headline risk and think lift is just getting started with their expansion partnerships. one of the key partnerships waymo. owned by alphabet that has recently come under fire after a video surfaced showing a particularly dizzying ride to the airport. diedra bow is a brings us the story in tech check. >> this video has just gone viral. let's take a look at it. it's from mike johns, who was just trying to get on his flight from phoenix to san francisco on time when this happened. >> yeah. i ot a flight to catch. why is this thing going in a circle. i'm getting dizzy. look at what it's doing. i got my seat belt on. i can't get out the car. has this been hacked? what's going on? i feel like i'm in the movies. >> i mean, this went on -- the video, for almost two minutes. ultimately waymo says the delay was just a few minutes and he was able to make his flight, but it does underscore, kelly, this

brave new robo taxi world that we're living in where we're increasingly willing to put our trust, dollars and time into robot's hands. sometimes the stakes are higher, though, like in this video posted by jessie lou, the founder of startup rabbit. we haven't been able to verify this video. it was posted to his x account. his tesla under full self driving control turn on to a metro rail track instead of a vehicle traffic lane with a train coming up behind him. he took over and had to run a red light to get out of the train's path. i reached out to tesla for comment, but really there's thousands of videos on the internet that show autonomous vehicle technology putting riders in various degrees of dangerous or annoying situations. but also there are many, many out there that show the technology avoiding accidents, even better than human drivers might have. this is all anecdotal, though. the industry really progress and win the trust of the masses they have to prove it. alphabet subsidiary waymo is

betting on data. its autonomous vehicles are safer than human driven ones using a number of different stats and evidence. they released auto pilot safety data for years. some experts say they're obscure on specifics. it is remarkable. i had my brother nd nephews out there for the holidays. i had to convince them to get into a waymo. at first they said no way. once they stepped out, they believed in it. you really have to try it. >> we don't have it over here. so i rely on the testimony from you guys out west. but what i hear is people saying, for the most part, they really don't have a problem getting into a waymo. it's completely been normalized. so i just wonder if a video like this, in a moment like this, does more to make people hesitate. would you have hesitated if this came out before you all got in the car versus now. >> fun fact, someone in our bureau actually had a similar incident. they did not post about it, but it took them on a ride early in the morning. you know how that rush is, kelly, getting into the studio

to make it to tv on time. but took them on a big detour around san francisco. and you know, that person still uses waymo. i still use them despite these incidents. i will say in this case the stakes were low. it was a few minutes delay. something that has to do with safety, that is the real sort of pain point of anything like that were to appen, that could just completely, you know, crush any of the progress that's been made and we certainly saw that with crews. right? it got in that high profile incident and they ultimately closed shop. >> is there no way to override it? so, if someone is in it getting taken in a joyride around san francisco or spinning in circles there's no way to hit a button in the app to say turn this off? pull other. this is wrong. >> you have to call customer support. >> you have this lengthy conversation with someone. there are human drivers. there's these control centers where a human can take over. but, that -- i've seen it a few weeks ago. there was a waymo stopped in an intersection just causing a huge

amount of traffic. and you know, you have to wait until that's resolved before the person can even get out. >> maybe we should be in the testing these in the desert phase still, but san francisco i guess that works, too. >> i'm happy we have them. just personally, i think it's a great experience. >> that's what everyone says. >> i never felt threatened. >> google is positive today. tesla is barely budging. no one seems to see this as that big of a setback. deirdre, as always, appreciate it. deirdre bosa out west today. american airlines shares have nearly doubled off their recent low from last summer. around their highest level in over a year and a half. that was our mystery chart earlier this hour. now jeffries is upgrading the name calling the most mismodelled airline. the analyst behind that call joins us to make her case and weigh in on the winter weather wreaking havoc on flights across the country. we're back after this. after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?"

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ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) ruri never thought she would live out her dream. then one day, she did. you were made to chase your passions. we were made to put them in a package. welcome back to "the exchange." i'm brian sullivan with your cnbc news update. the pentagon reaching a settlement of more than 35,000 gay and lesbian members discharged based on their sexual

orientation. as part of the settlement, they can be reissued paperwork that does not mention sexual orientation and if they were not given an honorable discharge, they will be eligible for immediate review. today in paris france, nicolas sarkozy going on trial on charges he accepted millions of dollars for his 2007 election campaign from libya's late dictator gadhafi. sar sowky faces up to ten years in prison if convicted. he denied any wrong doing. and a massive winter storm moving east across america and up ending travel. kelly, according to flight aware, nearly 2,000 flights were cancelled this morning and amtrack canceling multiple trains along the northeast corridor and other mid atlantic cities because we know train travel is new and often affected by the weather. >> they haven't had a couple hundred years to deal with this. >> yeah. back to you. >> thanks, brian. see you in the next hour. coming up, it's the first major media merger of the year. shares of the stream service

fubo are tripling on hulu plus disney live tv service. disney shares are moving slightly higher on the news as well. one of our guests is saying iger is getting what he wants without the anti-trust issues. we will dig into what's going on with this deal next.

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we await the election certification, let's get down to eamon javers. eamon? >> kelly, moments ago a moment for history as kamala harris, the vice president of the united states, certified the election for donald trump in the house chamber in her role as president of the united states senate. we saw cheers and a standing ovation from the republican side. a handshake between kamala harris and republican speaker of the house mike johnson. and such a historic moment as kamala harris, the vice president, certifying the election result for the man who defeated her, donald trump. in the room with her, as you can see there, surrounded by well wishers is jd vance the man who will succeed kamala harris as vice president of the united states. jd vance, getting hugs, handshakes, warm greetings from republicans on the right hand

side of the aisle there. as you look at mike johnson still presiding over the house chamber. kamala harris has just left the chair to his left, just a couple of moments ago. and that is it, kelly. it is official now. this election has been certified. donald trump will, as expected, take office on january 20th on inauguration day. this january 6th so different from the january 6th of four years ago when we saw insurrection, violence in washington, a pandemic, today there's much different feel. there's peace, a peaceful transition of power here in washington. a snow day for the children. and hand shax all around on the republican side of the aisle, kelly. back other to you. >> eamon javers reporting, thank you very much. meanwhile, we have the first big media merger of 2025, well, kind of big. disney announcing it will combine hulu plus live tv with streaming company fubo. fubo shares are soaring, tripled today. just under $5 a share.

they went public in october of 2020. we have a lot of actually bigger threads from what's going on with this deal today. and here to tackle it from multiple angles, julia boorstin has the deal details. and martin ceo mark douglas is here to talk about the ad implications. julia, kick things off for us. >> well, kelly, hulu plus live it'd and fubo has 6.2 million lye streaming subscribers. youtube had 8 million subscribers as of its most recent announcement. their deal is a testament to the pressure to scale. disney will own 70% of this new company in fu borks. shareholders will earn the remaining 30% of the combined company. both services will be available to consumers separately and fubo will create a sports and broadcasting offering featuring disney's networks. fu-bo ceo saying this also allows it to offer skinnier sports bundles. fubo is expanding its offerings

and more leverage in its carriage negotiations while disney gets greater distribution. they will benefit from synergies. under this deal, fubo settled litigation with disney and partners this sporting streaming service venues. venue's co-owners, disney, fox and warner brothers discovery will make a $220 million payment to fu-bo. it is projected to have revenue of $7.5 billion by 2028. this all positions disney to better compete with youtube's streaming business and comes ahead of disney launching its espn flagship subscription which is due to launch later this year. kelly? >> is it fair to say, julia, big sports implications? >> well, i think this is definitely a testament to the importance of sports. not only for the subscription business, but also for the advertising business. and i'm sure mark douglas has much more to say about that. but when you look at what the

most valuable content is for advertisers, particularly when it comes to live, sports is number one. we see that in terms of the ratings. we see that in sterms of netflix and amazon all increasing their investment in live sport. i think that's what this is really about. it bolsters the value of what disney has been doing in the sports arena. >> over to you, mr. douglas. what do you kind of think are the implications here? >> well, i think we're starting the year, it's like julia just says, sports, sports, sport. so i think that everything about streaming just seems to keep going towards sports. so that's a good thing. espn as she mentioned and so forth. but i think also like disney kind of gets a free play here. they want an independent sports network. now they essentially have one. they don't have to build one. they just have to invest and they own 07% of it. so in some ways that makes a lot of sense. fubo on the other hand gets to leverage the hulu brand which i

think they need because it will make the content they have more attractive to advertisers. and i do think this will increase the advertising revenue. investors investing more in fu-b-o literally right now, i think that is warranted. >> it seems like this clears the way for disney to go ahead with the launch of venue. >> yes. it clears the path for all these different threads that disney has. sports is interesting, right? they're pursuing so many different ways to distribute, right? they have espn plus today. they have espn under traditional paid tv ecosystem. and then there are rolling out the espn flagship streaming and now they're also owning the majority 70% of fubo, hulu, let's call it hubo. they have every way under the sun to get sports in front of you and this clears up a lot of the noise and a lot of the

impediments and the blockage that had come from the litigation. they're free to run. and they have a lot of ways to go at it. so, they can have at it now. >> so, i mean, mark, a lot of consumers are just kind of their heads are spinning from the options out there right now. how do you expect this to all shake out? >> i think it is -- even understanding the deal is confusing. so i think all these options that consumers do have is confusing. i think ultimately it's what are they interested and what speaks to them. so they want to watch football, do they want to watch college, whatever it is. so it's ultimately going to shake out in terms of that. do you have content that's really compelling to me. you know, i kind of always go back to netflix. one thing that netflix is really good at is basically on boarding you at the beginning of the night and then presenting something to you that you might not have watch and they'll do that literally tonight with wwe. i think disney still has to

figure that out. how do they just on board consumers and send them to the right sports content that is compelling to them and they're going to want to watch and pay for or get ads. >> that's very well said. especially when the streaming service -- now i'll say hubo, they only have 6 million subscribers combined. >> correct. they're one of the options out there. they will be one of two growth stories in the traditional linear bundle along with youtube, the bigger kind of traditional paid tv services are not really growing at this point. they're declining for the most part. and you know, i think that the -- what e're seeing right here is that this world that we grew up with of turning on tv and getting all the sports on tv is falling apart. the future will be the sports you want will be tucked away in myriad places and you have to navigate that. what's surprising is that consumers, the younger set, seems to want that. they seem to want to watch

thursday night football on amazon. they want to watch christmas football on netflix. and they'll probably want to watch what's going to be carried on hubo here. so the world is changing. and it's going to be more complicated. and that's just the way it. >> i love how your like, i guess they enjoy this. they enjoy the t.j. max treasure hunt. this is like the content treasure hunt, julia. >> there has been this content treasury hunt, but this is consolidation. this will make it easier to find all that sports content in one place. you can bet once espn flagship raunchs they'll make it easy to aggregate for all sports fans. this marks a trend that we're looking more of, which is a rebundling. i'll not just say consolidation. i think there are challenges when it comes to merging big media companies. we can certainly see that. a rebundling where we see more of these services, packaged together so it's easier to find your content. so it's easier to subscribe to a

bundle that's maybe smaller than the old cable bundle. certainly probably less expensive. but easier to navigate for sure. >> well, youtube tv is what 90 bucks a month now. it's getting up there. if anyone thinks that was the last price hike, i have something else to sell you and it's linear tv. thank you all. for more on the fubo deal with disney the co-founder and ceo will join closing well overtime around 4:00 p.m. eastern today. coming up, shares of capri popping on an upgrade to outperform at bmo. their up 7%. analysts see an upside of more than 50%. it's not on strength or any expected inflection point. it's sales, margins and debt pressures becoming, quote, less bad. shares of the parent company are down nearly 50% since its deal with tapestry was blocked. moref das g ve nt. otoy'bimorsex

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welcome back to "the exchange." still in a session for the nasdaq up 1.2%. the dow only up 34 points right now, .6 for the s&p and nasdaq. keep an eye here, this is all the chatter, 463 on the 10-year. 30-year breaking out as well. a lot of people scratching their heads. we'll wait to see what the jobs report friday does confirm. nvidia's recent rally has it on track for a record close. last summer, we come all the way back and then -- well, almost then some. it's still neck and neck with apple to become the world's most valuable company. we're off by just what is that, a.j., a few hundred million dollars, okay. 10 billion -- 5 billion -- you know, guys, it's not much in the 4 trillion grand scheme of things. nvidia a hair below apple on the session today as we await the keynote of jensen wong on ces. 5% of american airlines cancelled today and 20% delayed as winter storm blare wallops the west coast and the midwest.

american shares are up more than 4%. throw firms upgraded them to buy today. they lagged the likes of united and delta. analysts say this will be the at nt.unrds.deog th'sex

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american airlines is up more than 4% today on three upgrades to buy or that equivalent. among them is jeffries calling american the most mismodelled u.s. airline and raising their price target to 20 from 12. joining me now is the analyst behind that call, covering the airlines defense for jeffries. sheila, great to see you again. why bother with american? why not just go, united, delta all the way. what's so mismodelled about this company? >> thank you so much, kelly. well, united has been one of our top calls last week. we think american can join the group. really four reasons behind our upgrade and the biggest one is less capacity in the u.s. market. so 75% of american flights, american airlines flights are to short call domestic capacity as well as latin america. that's where they saw pricing down about 10% on our estimates last year. we think as capacity comes out of the market there mostly, esweshlly with southwest, their biggest competitor exiting a lot of that market, we think comps could be easier for american.

making it part of the mismodelling. the second area is corporate. >> go ahead. >> sure. on the corporate area, they took a bit of a misstep last year. so they lost about 1.5 billion out of their 54 billion of revenues last year. as they exited third party vendors. and they really lost out on high margin business, 20% operating margins where existing american airlines margins are about 5%. so they exited a high margin revenue business and they're going back into those markets. so for those two reasons we think american has very easy comps in 2025. >> fair enough. although the question -- you know, the logic behind doing so might call some to question, sticking with management at this point. i also just think about, look, united has this deal with starlink. delta every time you turn around they're doing another upscale contemporary offering for fliers. american, maybe i'm stuck in the mind set of four years ago has a ton of debt? >> american is one of the most levered airlines at five times

debt to ebitda. but you know, i think delta has nailed it in terms of being a consumer staple company. and steadily growing and providing optionalty for investors. know, thinks out of the box. whether it's starlink or otherwise, its international platform. we think american can join the big top three again as southwest steps back in the market and you see other capacity exiting the market from the low-cost carriers and it's most beb official essentially to american airlines. >> sorry. when you say it's mismodelled, do you mean literally in terms of earnings projections or more a balance sheet kind of thing? >> more earnings projections. we could see upside to earnings especially if capacity stays disciplined. they could outperform on the top line. again, 75% of the revenues essentially saw 10% price declines last year. so if there's any sort of improvement to that, every one point of price is 10% to ebitda. that's where we could see the most upside potential. another reason why we like american is a credit card deal

they announced late in december, which kind of got under the radar although the stock is up quite a bit since then. they're going solo with citi group. in 2026 you see this high margin, high revenue opportunity as well as they reset the credit card deal starting in 2026. >> i know we have to go, sheila. but when you mention that we'll see fares moving up next year, i think where is the consumer going to go if they're looking for a dheeper flight. >> i think that's the problem. i just booked my tickets for martin luther king, short call domestic flight they're quite expensive. i think we'll see capacity exiting the market. prices increasing. and that's going to be a potential story for 2025 for the u.s. carriers specifically delta, united and american airlines. >> maybe an inflation story, too. i'm going to keep my eye on that. sheila, as always. thanks. good to see you. we appreciate it. that does it for "the exchange" today. brian sullivan is getting ready for "power lunch."

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and welcome to "power lunch." your money, powering up again. it is part of a nice turnaround for the end of year sell-off. we'll tell you what could happen today that has not happened in more than 20 years. >> i don't eve