focused but taking the lead >> it reminds me of deere that goes there and makes announcements including around the star lynk. you are seeing more and more of this industrial tech piece play out in realtime >> i remember ces floor. >> nvidia tonight, we start to get jobs data tomorrow. that does it for "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. chips rip hiker, the best day since september. nvidia setting a record close and nearly score ly overtaking. can they keep their lead in the space? and a potential shift in trump's tariff policy, helping shares of gm rev up today. what's on the table now? and what it could mean for the markets and trade. bank stocks see a boost. tailwinds for one airline's shares, and why weight loss drugs may hit a wall, just like

your new year's resolutions. let's hope not. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- karen finerman, dan nathan, and chris verrone. and we start off, as we return to all-time highs for nvidia. the semi giants topping $150 a share for the first time since the stock split, notching its first record close in two months. the a.i. darling jumping more than 3% today and now up almost 9% in just five sessions. today's move coming hours before ceo jensen huang takes the stage at ces in las vegas. will he satisfy investors the company will keep the lead in the a.i. race? kristina partsinevelos is here with more. what can we expect? >> we can expect he's going to build momentum around this stock. just this last year, the share price of ini have ya shares jumped 6% on day one for this company. so, what we are expecting from nvidia would be its a.i.-themed. from his keynote coming out

tonight, its going to be focused on a.i., specifically for the black well chip. i say the blackwell chip, because in november, they said they were shipping more than they thought, but they didn't provide concrete numbers. investors want reassurance that they can provide and keep one that demand heading into 2026, especially. and then also, within maybe a tease of rubin, the next iteration of the a.i. chip architecture that's slated for 2026, there's some rumors that maybe it will come earlier this year, and speaking for a.i., we may get more about the humanoid robots launching in the first half of this year. from software to robots, nvidia is positioning itself to sell what they call the full-stack solution. i just talked about blackwell, rubin, the robots, but gamers are really excited, too, tonight, because nvidia is expected to release a new

graphics card. and there's some talk right now that nvidia might jump into the a.i. pc processor market. which would put them in direct competition with amd, intel, qualcomm. that's just a rumor. the keynote will be a driver for the stock. tomorrow's q&a with investors will be a big one, because that's when they're really going to get the questions about financial targets, if they get any updates on that, and china restrictions, et cetera. >> yeah, the investor call tomorrow seems interesting, to really allow the followup to this potentially momentum-building event. >> and it's on nvidia's website, everyone will have access to it. and that's a big driver. and the cfo will be speaking tomorrow, too, at an event. so, there's a lot that could move this stock. >> all right. kristina, good to see you, thank you. >> thank you. >> kristina partsinevelos. >> great having her here. starting the year off -- i haven't seen you in awhile. >> long time. happy new year. >> you know i hate that. >> you have it for another day or two.

>> jensen, he does an amazing job, saying what the market wants to hear and i guess it's about 4 1/2 hours from now, 6:30 pacific time is when he speaks. obviously learn a lot more. so, i'm not concerned about what he's going to say. my concerns continue to be the same thing. now it's a stock that's trading north of 18 times revenue, which historically is probably twice the valuation companies like this deserve. at a certain point, they're not going to enjoy the 76% margins they enjoy, and competition is coming. the price action over the last, and chris can speak to this, since that 128-ish low, has been extraordinary. and here we are at all-time highs. >> well, guy, we have to remember, this is a stock that all the price progress came in the first six months of the year. only 8% growth came after june. this has been a long consolidation here on nvidia. 150 is really the big level, we're right there. i expect we'll close through it. we did make new highs versus the s&p today. this is still a name involved in

the leadership fabric, as did taiwan semi. but almost as equally as interesting, some of the beaten, broken down semis which have been off the playing field have woken up. i think that's worthy of our attention. >> you're long. >> i am long. i've often thought there's two parts to jensen that are amazing, both his technical prowess, and then, his ability to guide the street, i don't know what you want to call it, lead the streak, talk up the stock. he's really good at that. and i think the bar is just getting higher and higher, but he does seem able to leap over the bar. i'd rather it not be up five bucks going into this presentation tonight, but i'm staying long. i think we'll see february 26th, earnings. maybe we'll have a better sense before that. >> i guess, i got a lot to say about this. the stock is going to continue to work as long as these sorts

of events get investors excited about what the road map is, and it's interesting that kristina said, we're not even done talking about blackwell, we're going to talk about rubin. he's really great at mapping that out. the flip side, if they're able to guide, that 18-times sales that guy just mentioned probably won't matter that much if they keep raising the bar. in the near term. but i'm more concerned about what microsoft might have to say. they've been kind of loud over the last few weeks or so. if you go back three weeks ago, satya adella was on the bgt pod. he said they are no longer chip constrained, they are power con stained. microsoft is a 19% customer of nvidia. we also know that microsoft is working with the likes of broadcom to do us can tonsil con. -- to do custom sill cob. i think people are getting sick of the pricing power. and then i go to today, there's a story out that, you know, i think it was information, they're going to spend $80

billion on infrastructure buildout. that's not all chips, that's a whole host of other things, okay? so, let's see what that does. and the wisconsin data center they're building out, they have stopped the second phase of the buildout. why? they said the recent changes in technology have caused them to kind of reassess the design of the facility. so, i guess if you start to see some push-outs in the builds of these data centers, if you start to see a slowdown in capex, which we're not going to get until the end of this month, i think there's a lot of moving parts, but microsoft is a great barometer. >> i have a question. microsoft saying they're not chip constrained anymore, why is that concerning -- >> because blackwell demand is insane, is what jensen told us. >> it can still be insane even if microsoft is not chip constrained anymore, but others are picking up that demand. >> if you're not constrained, that means -- >> well, they're the number one customer, though, so you would

think they would get supply first. >> when they want it. >> i just said, the stock is -- if they have this financial update tomorrow, it's basically a mid-quarter update and things are fine, better than expected, to chris's point, this stock has consolidated for months and months. there's been a move into broadcom, into marvel, this is the custom silicon sort of trade. that is a diversification -- >> or does the consolidation mean it's going to move higher? >> well, it did. it just broke out. >> that's where i lean. between 150 and 125 for the better part of six months. but dan, you make a very good point about microsoft here. not only is it not involved, it's the weakest of this group. 415 on microsoft has been a really big level for basically the last six months. you lose 415 on microsoft, you begin to wonder, is there something going on here that i don't quite understand? >> and to chris's earlier point, the smh had been trading lower to sideways since july. it's back on the horse now for obvious reasons.

you mentioned energy, dan talked about energy use. vst had that huge move earlier, well, not earlier this year, late last year, selloff, now we're right back to prior all-time highs, and, you know, oddly enough, they report the same day that nvidia does at the end of february. so, this is, if you want to sort of go downstream, this continues to work. >> bernstein research reiterating nvidia as a top pick. stacy, what are you expecting from jensen tonight? >> yeah, as you said, jensen puts on a pretty good show. we'll see if we get updates on the data center side of things, blackwell, rubin. this is also the consumer electronics show. we'll hear about gaming, automotive, probably hear, as you mentioned, rumors, maybe that they're pushing into the pc space. probably hear a lot about robotics and a.i. at the edge. i think he's got plenty to talk about and plenty for people to

still be excited about. >> how much is the story going to be what is being announced nvidia, not just nvidia-specific but, sort of the whole ecosystem of a.i., this becoming now the mainstream, it's not just corporations, a consumer product at this point, or we're enters that phase? >> yeah, i -- i hope we're entering it. and we, you know, we had some updates today, some keynotes from intel and amd, and they both talked a lot about a.i. pcs where we have yet to see that driving a lot of incremental strength in the pc market, but i think there's always hope. qualcomm, the same thing around a.i. smartphones. so, certainly, the technology is at the point where it is starting to get in consumer's hands. i think e'd like to see it start to drive actual upgrades of devices. i don't know that we've necessarily seen that yet, like, in any sort of large amount, but these -- we're all hopeful. we're all hopeful. >> stacy, you've been bullish in nvidia probably 90% of the time and you've been right to be bullish. here's my question. if there's a competitor out

there that concerns you, who would that be? >> yeah, you know, so, if you think about long-term, how does this market shake out, i think gpus are very important. but i'm not actually convinced at the end of the day, it's two gpu vendors. i cover broadcom, who does asics, and i do think the ultimate is probably nvidia gpus and then for captive workloads at hyperscalers, it will likely be asics. they're all working on their own. and i expect asics will outgrow, in the sense they're coming from a much smaller base. you can do the math today, it's a little bit of monkey math, but i bet asics are probably low double digits. could that number be 20% of a much bigger pie in five years? yeah, i think it could. but my guess is, that's the -- the likely competition. now, yes, does it worry me? i don't think we're on the saturated part of the s-curve, right?

things are still growing. so, i think the question, is it a big market or is it not? if it's a big opportunity, i think there's room for everybody. if it's not, then everybody's in trouble, right? so, i think that's the question that you want to have confidence one way or the other. i'll worry about competition later. i don't think it's the time to worry about it now. >> stacy, it's karen, thanks for being on tonight. if you have $175 valuation, how do you get there, what are the metrics that you think are most important here? >> yeah, it's earnings and multiple. i can't actually remember what multiple we're putting on it, but i don't think it's egregious. the stock today is trading at 38 times forward, which is kind of right in line where it's trading, if you look at the five-year average, the ten-year average, that's kind of where it is. i've made this point on this station before, but as strong as the stock has been over the last year or i guess two years as this has gone, it's cheaper today than it was before it started, right? i mean, as much as the stock has

gone up, the earnings have gone up even more. and the multiple's actually come down. and the multiple, if the numbers are anywhere even close to right, the multiple's not egregious at all at these levels. >> hey, stacy. broadening it out more to guy's question, you just mentioned some of the equipment, you know, makers here, you look at an asml, it was up 7.5%. this is a company a month ago that gave horrible bookings. so, this stock was not trading particularly well over the last few months or so, and then a micron, which, about two weeks ago gave not great guidance. the stock today fills in the earnings gap. i think the stock was down 10% or so. is this more investors looking for other opportunities to kind of broaden out this trade? because some of the narratives in and around a.i. for these other names have not really played out, it's been a very narrow trade in the semispace. >> yeah, it really had. it's been nvidia and broadcom, and more recently, guys like marvel. other names where people had high hopes like amd have been disappointing. and not that amd was necessarily

bad in their a.i. performance, but expectations were much higher. and they were not able to meet those expectations. i think on the semi-cap side, people have been concerned about, like, new export controls and limited on these guys ability to further ship into china. we even took our semi-cap numbers down on those china risks back in september, in december, a few weeks ago. but yeah, today, it wasn't just the semi-caps. there were some comments around the trump potential tariffs, and just some other broader excitement around semis and ces that took everything up. i don't cover asml, i'm refrain from commenting there, but all the semi-caps were up today. >> stacy, thank you. >> you bet. >> citi upgraded semi-cap equipment stocks. guy, when you hear somebody who is very bullish, clearly, been

bullish for a long time. continues to say things like, we don't have to worry about the competition right now. >> and he's been right to point that out. it's probably not a concern right now, given the head start they have. he addressed the size of the addressable market out there. if that's not a concern, that they can continue to grow -- i get all those arguments. my concern has been, will continue to be, valuation, not only a price to earnings, but on a price to sales, which is at a company -- listen, if they go from $200 billion to somehow north of 600 over the next three years, yeah, they can grow into that price to sales. that f that's the if that's the case. >> i don't know. i'm still long. i do think that the stock will peak before the actual earnings peak. so, the question is, when does that happen? i don't know. stacy has been right for so long on this stock, so, i do sort of take some comfort in the idea that he's, like, for right now, it's not crazy, it's not expensive, he talks about the s-curve. maybe there's a lot of room to

go. sim staying long, even though as a value girl, it's not so easy to do. >> it is cheaper than it was in may of '23 when he gave that first guidance. and i guess it does come down to a few things. capex, and we're going to get a good sense of that. use cases. that's going to be really important as we think about that. so, it's less ---ing concernin. broadcom, with that 25% gap, that got pretty expensive, right? so, when you think about the guidance that they gave about their custom kind of business, between, i think it was $60 billion and $90 billion by the end of 2027, that caused that move. i think a lot of things are kind of getting ahead of themselves. that's kind of pie in the sky sort of guidance. so, again, if some of the use cases become clear, i think if some of the capex is better than expected, this stock is going higher. and to your point about consolidations, that's been the story for the last 2 1/2 years. gaps s consolidate, more gaps. >> i think if you're playing this from a trading perspective, trailing stock at 140 makes sense. if you're a longer-term player,

125 is long-term support on the stock. those are the levels you have to be very disciplined about. the big banks getting a boost as michael barr announced he'll resign from his post next month. the news coming amid speculation that president-elect donald trump would seek to replace barr. investors betting this could pave the way for some wheeling and dealing in the space. could mean maybe less strenuous capital reserve requirements, karen. a lighter regulatory touch, more friendly banking regulations. all the things that would theoretically be amazing for stocks, like a citi, which had a new high today. >> all of the things would be amazing. i think this is not new. this particular bar is new, but the idea it would be a more friendly regulatory environment. and the asset wealth businesses, doing well in the market, still high, so, there's a lot to like here.

there's a lot to still like. to me, the story changed only a tiny bit today. it was already pretty good. >> yeah. >> well, i think it's important the stocks live up to the news, because the news from the election to this news has been bullish, the stocks have to justify that. they largely have. they've been a very important part of the leadership fabric of this market for, let's say the last 18 months. so, if we're going to continue to kind of operate in the status quo, the bank leadership, i think it's important they respond to good news. they did today. i like wells, i like citi, i like bank of america. >> it is interesting the names you just mentioned, that they're probably going to benefit most from that. jpmorgan closed down on the day. i think it's really interesting that investors are excited about this. what happened when we saw rates go up precipitously in early 2023? we saw regional banks fail. when you think about higher for longer, you think about loosening up regulatory, as it relates to asset -- i just don't see that as a good deal. the stocks trade at valuations they haven't in a very long time. and the bkx has just come off

7.5% from those recent highs. i just don't see a reason for excitement around a better regulatory environment as it relates to the banks. >> one thing about citi bank, you said all-time high, remember, there was that 10 for 1 split about 15 years ago that they never -- they never got close to being -- >> that's true. >> but in the modern era -- >> yeah. >> 52-week high without question. this is one thing we've been consistent on. the book value, in october, they announced, was 101. we said, look, it's probably not going there. but 080% of book value, and it continues to sort of levitate towards that. coming up, full stream ahead. shares of fubo tripling today after announcing a merger. how its content is coming together with disney and what more media mergers could be on the horizon. plus, uber and united airlines were in the green today. can they bring your rtlito its destination?

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that stock tripling in value on the news. julia boorstin has the details. >> this is 6.2 million livestreaming subscribers. that puts them behind only youtube, which had 8 million as of its most recent announcement. now, fubo and hulu plus live tv's deal is a testment of the pressure to scale. disney will own 70% and fubo shareholders will own the remaining 30%. now, both services will be available to consumers separately, and fubo will create a new sports and broadcasting offering featuring disney's networks. and will be able to offer some new skinnier sports bundles in the future. fubo in expanding its offerings will have more leverage in carriage negotiations, while disney gets greater distribution and more streaming ad inventory. under this deal, fubo has settled litigation with disney and its partners in sports streaming service venue.

venue's co-owners disney, fox, and warner brothers discovery, will pay $220 million to fubo. the company projects $7.5 billion in revenue by 2028. all of this comes out of disney launching its espn flagship subscription later this year. melissa? >> julia, does this pave the way for more deals? how should we look at this in terms of the sports offerings? combining, in theory, would be more advantageous, but there are a lot of different offering from the consumer standpoint to wade through. >> a lot of different offering. i any think consumers are going have increasing amounts of choice, and that will be around budles. we may see a lot more consolidation this year, but i think a lot of that will depend on how the regulatory environment actually ends up being for deals. so, while that is still a little bit more uncertain, i can say for sure we will see more

bundling. there are so many options, these companies understand the benefits of coming together and bundling their offerings to make it easier to navigate, and also to remove churn, reduce churn. for hulu and fubo, they will have a lot lower churn, if people aren't just signing up for fubo to watch a season of their favorite sport and then dropping it. they are giving people that additional functionality to really make it worth sticking around for the long-term. >> you also mentioned fubo and more leverage in carriage negotiations. i didn't realize that fubo was distributed via cable. i thought it was only streaming. so, how -- how much of a presence does it have, and how much of a presence is it expected to have at this point, especially as -- as everybody sort of, you know, really comes down to very difficult carriage negotiations. >> well, fubo has its own carriage negotiations with all these different partners, and really, the origin of fubo's lawsuit, all these short --

short- short-terms lawsuit was really about fubo was wanting to offer a smaller package of channels to its streaming subscribers. so, it is a streaming service, but it is still negotiating its own package of channels. and it said, hey, if venu is able to offer its own skinny package just of sports, why can't we do the same? fubo was always sports first, but in order to get these channels from these other media companies that included sports, they also had to pay for other channels, as well. so, for fubo, it was a real disadvantage to not be able to compute with venn yew, because they weren't able to offer just sports, and now, they're saying, hey, we can now offer skinnier packages, just of sports and even just particular sports. >> all right, julia, thank you. julia boorstin with all the details there. guy? >> the best. fubo, the stock has been fubar for the last couple of years.

today's move not withstanding. i mean, this is flatlined for the last few years. with that said, disney is the one that's interesting. to me, it's because they've gone from playing defense now seemingly they're starting to play a little offense. chris can speak to this. we traded up to in november the same levels we traded up to in march, about 120, seemingly failed, but you know, as we get closer to earnings early february, i think disney is a name that could surprise people to the upside. >> it's a name we put on our list of real potential leaders in 2025. the stock peaked four years ago, peaked in march of 2021, it's been a 60% decline, it's been a devastating bear market, we've spent the last 18 months basing. i agree with guy. you start to push this up through 120, it's a very meaningful breakout. coming up, united's starlink surge and uber named a top pick. plus, a tariff tweak. trump's potential shift in his tariff plans and the impact he's already having on some stocks.

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today after announcing that deployment of starlink con second connectivity by the end of the year. american also getting a pop today after a slew of bullish analyst calls. a street high price target of $25, up from its previous $8 call. guy? >> yeah, and jeffries, i saw that, what is that great show, about the lunch at cnbc? >> "power lunch." >> odd, right? the analyst gave a great reason for the upgrade. they are getting the higher margin business. and if you look, i mean, chris can speak to this, it appears, though, we might be having this bearish to bullish reversal in american airlines, a stock that's ne nothing now for years. >> look who is playing technical analyst, chris? >> i agree. i would swap them here. ual, you're up 50 to 100. the old highs back from

prepandemic, 2019 is where the stock topped. american, the analysts are still pretty indifferent on it. i would play that one. >> let's get to our call of the day. uber up 2.5% after web bush added the stock to its best ideas list for 2025. analysts seeing a more favorable risk/reward profile, helped by the company's expansion of key partnerships. just the surge in travel, too, overall, as we mentioned the airlines, that helps. >> i like uber. you know, so much has been made of robotaxi, just coming to take their lunch, no pun intended, because they do delivery. and i do think that's maybe those fears are somewhat overblown, so, i kind of like it. i think -- and i think the ceo is great. >> great ceo. i think it's way overblown in the near term. i this i that fromnk from the b that tesla had, a lot of the realization, if you were there, this is not happening any time

soon. you always take the over when they put -- tesla, you know, some sort of estimate about when a product is copping out. the stock went from 85 down to $60, now it's since bounced over the last few days. this is at a discount, and i don't think -- the fact that it trades at a discount, i think a lot of investors think that roe bow taxis are going to be competition a lot sooner than people think. all right, coming up, a potential pivot on trump's tariffs plans. what aggressive tariffs could mean for inflation. the details when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. . it says... i see you. i feel you.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks pulling back a bit frommen from an early rally. the dow closing in the red. the s&p and nasdaq holding object onto their gains, though. the nasdaq up more than 1% at nvidia closed at a record high. the canadian dollar getting a small boost, as justin trudeau

resigns. he says he will remain as prime minister until his replacement is chosen through a party election. and staples seeing a pull-back, losing more than a percent. just a few days into 2025, the group is the worst performer in the s&p 500. shares of ulta jumping afterhours. increasing its fourth quarter outlook, expects operating margin above high end forecasted range. and the ceo is stepping down, being replaced by the current president and coo. karen, what do you make of this sudden news? >> i don't love sudden ceo change without a little more description why that is. but to sort of soften the blow, they did talk about the quarter was looking good, that margins will improve, so, that's why the stock is up. now, i think it could be somewhat of a seamless transition, but i don't love that. you got -- the gold standard of transition is morgan stanley.

james gorman, i don't know why they don't all do it like that. shares of gm and ford higher today on hopes the automakers may be spared from massive tariffs in the new administration. "the washington post" reporting that president-elect trump was considering narrowing the scope of the proposed levies, though trump did deny that report. megan cassella has more. >> that's right, melissa. the report said that trump's team is focusing only on imports deemed critical to national or economic security. the idea here is that tariffs would focus on specific sectors that trump wants to bring back to the u.s. "the post" listed the defense industrial supply chain, critical medical supplies and energy production. now, people in touch with the transition team told me today that trump's commerce and treasury teams have been interested in this type of narrower approach, and that lawyers see this as on firmer legal ground than the universe altar riffs, because there's precedent here. trump could use the same law that he used in his first term

to impose those tariffs on steel and aluminum. but trump himself not completely onboard. he posted on truth social that the story was wrong, but even still, as you mentioned, auto stocks up on that report. i would add, though, melissa, trump did pursue a national security investigation into cars specifically in his first term. that was a move to protect domestic industry. no tariffs were ever imposed there, but one option that could be on the table, even in this sort of more slimmed-down regime. melissa? >> megan, thank you. we should note that all of the sectors that would have been affected by universe alter riffs were higher today, not just car parts. the dollar stores popped on the back of this. >> i look at gm, in june, i think, of 2021, it traded up to $61 and cascaded lower. in november, we traded right back up to that level. and then had a dropoff. so, i'm concerned just on a technical basis here. i get the bounce today, but i

don't think gm is out of the woods yet at all. and i think in order to prove itself, it needs to close above 60. i don't see that happening any time soon. >> i think the chart's fine. it's been in this long-term uptrend. but i can't say that about ford. ford has been a devastating bear market. it was barely up today. but i think the really interesting price action on the tariff news was actually out of europe. if you look at the european autos, bmw, mercedeses, really big turns, which have been developing over the last couple of months. and the european luxury stocks, all real nice reversals there. those are names to put on the radar as maybe starting to bottom. >> that reminds me of your acronym, help, the l was actually lvmh -- >> the correct -- >> played it right. >> but now chris is saying it -- maybe it's in the new acronym for 2025? >> well, it's still in my portfolio in the dog house, where it belongs, for sure, but i mean -- one thing after another, you know? the alcohol story the other day,

that was good for another three, four bucks, even though alcohol has been terrible for awhile. i don't know. it's not going to be in my acronym. >> it's not? >> wow. >> when are we rolling those out? >> i am not sure. >> by the way, one of our producers said they're just waiting on guy. >> what does that even mean? >> just waiting on guy. >> what did you do? >> we had to do it by close of trading today. because tomorrow we are unveiling it. this just in. >> oh. >> we're going to unveil the acronyms tomorrow. >> i have an idea. i'm going to go from clam to something -- >> call. calm. >> that was it originally. i had to go to clam. >> going to be another mollusk? >> i believe so. something in the family. >> squid? >> maybe. >> crab? coming up, is a high energy rally in store for 2025? we'll go off the charts for a closer look. but first, the skinny on what could tip the scales

agnsait obesity drug makers this year. a health care checkup is next.

welcome back to "fast money." a mixed showing for health care stocks in the new year's first

trading day. the health care etf holding onto a 1% gain for 2025 so far, but still flat over the past year. even the red hot glp-1 obesity category is cooling off. novo nordisk seeing steep losses. the stock erasing all its gains back to august of 2023. for more on where the trade goes from here, jared holz joins us on the "fast line." jared, great to have you with us. >> thanks so much for having me, melissa. >> at this point, investors have digested what's going on in novo nordisk in terms of the disappointment with the new drug, and that market share hasn't gone to the rest of the space. what's going on here in terms of the re-evaluation in the multiples here and what's factored into the stock? >> i think the main issue is that we finally are in some sort of air pocket with respect to catalysts for novo. they introduced a couple of

datasets in oral over the past -- oral obesity medications over the past six months, and then, this drug, which i thought was actually okay, just didn't look as good as the company had indicated to investors. and i think the underlying problem with, when you look at the entire obesity space, is that the analyst community, i just believe got overzealous with, you know, their out-year estimates, $100 billion, $120 billion. it just became -- for both of the stocks to work. >> there's a jpmorgan note which karen sent around to our team here today, which cited some data saying that ozempic, wegovy, that users discontinued use within one year and i'm wondering if you're seeing that same sort of data, and if that makes you extra concerned about novo versus eli, because there is a great disparity in terms of the stock performance. >> i'm actually not that concerned. i think when you kind of examine this whole space, and you do

work on causations on the medicine. the thing that comes up, when patients reach a certain weight loss, or they attain their goal of how much they wanted to lose, there is a high chance, or, a high probability, that they start to wean themselves off the drug, either by way of a doctor or self-medicating. and i think when you kind of take that into consideration, you still don't really know what the average length of a patient staying on the drug is, and i'm fairly confident that we're going to see a lot of patients go on and off the drugs, maintaining their weight, so, i'm not so concerned about patient's finishing the drug. what i would say is that once you've reached a 20% weight goal, whatever it may be, the likelihood that you come off for some period of time is high, but then you probably go back on it. we're just not -- we're not deep enough into the launches to really know what the average patient is going to do.

>> so, jared, it's karen, thanks for being on. so, drawdowns in both lilly and novo. which do you like better? >> i like lilly here better, mainly because they still have the optionality of an in-house oral weight loss medication. we're going to get that data during the first half of the year. i think that's important to consider, just given some of the issues novo has had with their program, and i'm -- again, i'm not really sure this drug is not one -- the data were fairly good in a vacuum, but i think they need to regain investor confidence. i like lilly, but i think the street believes both companies might underwhelm in terms of how the fourth quarters are looking. >> jared, when does merck get out of the penalty box, and has viking traded low enough where somebody's going to gobble them up? >> ah, what's up, guy? i think viking's interesting. mainly because of their oral.

you know, i think the injectables at this point might be solved for. they're really going to have to prove the product on their own. but i think there's probably enough value in the oral for the stock to start working if the data continue to look good. that's really where i think that company, you know, finds itself in the market. as far as merck, i mean, the street is begging them to do more m&a. so, i think it's going to have to be business development. >> jared, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thank you. >> jared holz, mizuho. how do the charts look, novo in particular? >> well, i think lilly is the one that's really in trouble here. i can come up with a $600 target. it's been topping for the better part of a year now. i think merck actually might be interesting long. you've had the pretty devastating bear market there. 100 has been very long-term support for many, many years. wouldn't be shocked if that bottomed here. coming up, act natural.

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welcome back to "fast money." a frigid forecast for a big part of the country this week. parts of the u.s. under winter storm watches. freezing rain and heavy snowfall. the cold sending natural gas spiking again. one trader here thinks it's showing more life ahead. chris, what do you see? >> well, the theme we've been on here for a couple of months, so, it kind of predates the cold weather. natural gas has been improving for the better part of the last six, seven months. and these equities are really now starting to get in gear. you're starting to see the leadership emerge. three stocks in particular stand out here. one is eqt. really starting to break out after about a 2 1/2-year consolidation. all of these peaked around the energy top in early '22, so, they've kind of spent their time in purgatory, they've turned 60 on eqt, i think is an important target here. it's really starting to outperform. it's outperforming the s&p, which is a very high bar.

and taro resources, the second one, 45 would be our target there. and lastly, baker hughes, it's already broken out. it's been the leader in this group. i think it's best of breed in terms of these natural gas stocks, would certainly be long there. >> i think within a dollar of an all-time high -- >> long time. i don't own that still. >> i think of karen when i think of that. i think of karen often. eqt, absolutely, i think. and devin in the mix, as well, which seemingly, again, one of these bearish to bullish reversal. nat gas story is real. back in the day, we used to call it the widow maker, and having more than doubled since the spring, you know why? >> when was the last time you owned that? >> a long, long, long time ago. golar, i have owned for a super long time, they are in the lng transportation. >> right. >> and that is the ticker. glng. >> right. >> chris, what else are you seeing for the energy space,

which was a dog in general last year? >> it's the sector where the equal weight is doing better than the cap weight. everywhere, it's cap weight over equal weight it's outperforming exxon, chevron, all the big ones. that's an important psychological shift within the group. crude, back to a tough spot. crude's rallied back to the 200-day moving average. i wouldn't press my luck in oil stocks. >> are you putting an oil stock into your acronym? >> i have to come up with the acronym, which is a word made of letters. and i do -- >> the words -- >> usually. >> that's a fair point. >> last year, we learned differently. >> good point. >> didn't play the game. >> yeah, there might be an energy play in there. chris may have inspired me. >> interesting. eqt, i think. >> look at you. that's going to be the e in whatever. >> you can only wait to find out. up next, final trades.

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final for the final trade. chris? >> we talked about it, natural gas has turned. long eqt. >> karen? >> yes, welcome back, melissa. >> great to be back. >> i did miss you guys. >> to our great surprise. i love it. xle. all this energy talk. >> dan? >> you know, i was one for, like, ten days. nothing, crickets. i missed you guys and i'm back. >> missed you, too. >> i like the uber call here. use a 60 stop on that. >> guy? >> you did not miss us. >> i did. i did. >> did you text karen and say, "i miss you?"

>> no. >> we did text. >> that's adorbs. you go home after the show together, it's the cutest thing. >> yeah. >> american airlines, mel. i think it's breaking out. >> thank you for watching "fast money." chris, great to have you tonight. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money, welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain, but i'm explaining it. so call me