welcome to power lunch, everybody, alongside kelly, i am brian. stocks have turned lower. bond yields are pulling back, but they were the highest we have seen, kelly, since april. the rate spike causing stocks to sink. >> as we are saying this, we are back at 471 on the 10 year, as we get the minutes coming out right now. steve, do tell. >> the federal reserve, at its december meeting, was at or near the point, after cutting by a quarter, of slowing its policy easing. the rate cut that they did enact was seen as, "finely balanced." it was a finely balanced call, and some wanted to not cut at all. that is more than just one dissent. not everybody has the vote.

the minute say that the fed cut rates to maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, while continuing progress on inflation, because they believe they were restricted. the risk between inflation and unemployment were seen as roughly balanced. inflation had eased substantially, the remains somewhat elevated. what you will hear next is a lot of the back-and-forth of the meeting between those most concerned about inflation and those less concerned. the pace of the inflation, had slowed, some said. upside risk to inflation had increased. several were concerned that this inflation may have stalled or risked stalling. on the other side, some people said this inflation was still apparent across the board, especially, in market prices, as opposed to the nonmarket prices on a range of goods and services. now, moving on, the firms we are seeing as more reductive to increase prices, consumers were more price-sensitive. changes in trade and immigration policy.

now, a big discussion about coming fiscal policy, it is mentioned several times in the minutes. policy could delay inflation improvement. the uncertainty of elevated -- also elevated the uncertainty about policy. there was rising business, optimism, however, and expectations for tax policy changes, along with the regulation. positive market sentiment and momentum into growth could put upward pressure on inflation, and the fed was concerned about knowing the difference between what was a temporary increase in inflation, but that is the implication, or from other forces in the economy that might be more permanent. a period of uncertainty ahead, according to the federal reserve, guys, and this is why they have telegraphed they will be slowing the pace of easing in the coming year. >> steve, stick around. for more reaction to the fed minutes, the interest rate, the macro economic environment, let's bring in seth carpenter, chief global economist at

morgan stanley. your take on the headlines that steve gave. >> unsurprisingly, steve did a great job. look, i think the facts are clear. the u.s. economy is still on pretty solid footing. the labor market had cooled, but was by no means cold, and inflation keeps coming down, but there is noise, and there are lots of ratings in recent months that gave some of the members of the committee pause. what is the central bank to do after you have cut interest rates a lot and you don't know what the neutral rate is? they ask themselves, how much further do we have to go, and they are inclined to keep going. we just heard on the wire, a speech from chris waller. they are inclined to keep cutting rates, they just don't want to overdo it. they are doing this balancing act, and the fact they are getting closer to where they need to be, it is showing through in this dispersion of use, and just how much faster and further they have to go. >> well, answer your own

question, because i think it's confusing to a lot of people and by a lot of people -- i'm referring to myself. in september, the federal reserve cut rates by a half a percentage point, 50 basis points, and we have been talking about the pace of rate cuts from the end of last year and all of this year, and all the bond market has done is react in the exact opposite way, and bond yields continue to spike, so i think the technical term is, somebody screwed up. >> i want to be a little bit more sympathetic to the really difficult job that jay powell and his colleagues have. they are reading the data coming in in real time. they are inferring from the real-time data what they have to do. we were a little bit surprised by the 50 basis point cut, the soft readings in the labor market. we thought, at the time, or exaggerating what was going on, but the fed did not want to take any chances at that point, and as they were just starting

to lower interest rates, they knew they were further away from neutral. if you are going to make a bit of a mistake, that would be the time to, perhaps, cut a little bit more, so i think they were doing risk management. one of the paragraphs in the minutes that just came out was all about the risk management discussions. now, they are reading the incoming data and asking, how far do we have to go? our view is, probably two more rate cuts this year. the economy will slow, but not crash for a while. there is huge uncertainty, though, about what will happen with tariff policy, as steve alluded to, what is going to happen with immigration policy, as well? all of that uncertainty means they can't be confident in how far they have to go. >> i guess, steve, the point is, there were a lot of people hoping that rates would go down so they can afford a mortgage to buy a home, and they heard rate cuts, and they probably automatically assumed that rates would go down, and they did go down, by the way. maybe, they did something in september, but if they didn't, you thought, i will wait and

rates will keep going down, but they have not gone down. is there anything you have seen, or somebody you talked to, that can explain why the fed is cutting while bond yields are soaring? >> brian, that's a great question. reading these minutes, the 23 minutes that we get to read them , i was struck by the idea that this did not, generally, read like the set of minutes from a meeting where you would cut interest rates. unless, you are good, darn sure that you are above the neutral rate and restrictive. there were parts of this thing that you could read, like two thirds of it, that would read like the kind of minutes for a meeting, where they either held the policy rate the same, or even raised the policy rate. it was a very unusual situation when you look at the discussion about the possibility of inflation stalling, when you look at the uncertainty around fiscal policy that is coming from trade and immigration. you are right in the sense that

the rate cut was a little unexpected by some people, and then you have people in the room there. we got some of that when we look at the dock bought, as well, but there was more than one person in the room but did not want to hike rates. not everybody got the vote, and there may be some people that voted for the rate cut, that did not think it was the best course of action, may have gone a long with the majority on that, but you are right in the sense that we thought rates were going to go down. if you look at that chart of the 10 years since september, they have gone straight back up, but the key here that i think is important for the fed and maybe seth wants to comment on this, the substantial part of the increase is not from inflation expectations. it is from term premium, and that may have more to do with growth prospects, productivity prospects, as well as the fiscal outlook. >> yeah, there, i agree with steve. it is really important to note that the increase in rates we have seen since september, it

is two things. the market, along with the fed took those soft readings from the labor market in august and over extrapolated, as a part of the reversal is the incoming data saying, no, those fears of a big slowdown were overdone, and subsequent reading said, in fact, boy, the u.s. economy is just fine. it's not that inflation all by itself is a big problem. it's not even that there has been all that big of a change in where the fed is going to end up. it's more that the economy has proven to be resilient and markets have to now price in a stronger economy for longer, and then a fed that is now showing themselves to be much more cautious. i think there has been a lot going on. the economy is resilient. it surprised a lot of people, including the fed, and i think that combination of things is what is giving us this great reaction. >> gentlemen, we believe it there. the tenure just below 470. let's get a deeper look at what has been happening on the yield

front today with rick santelli. it's not just in the u.s. we have seen yields spiking. in the uk, the 10 year has risen by one full point in the last couple of months, and rick, at least, our currency is strengthening. >> it is even worse in general eu conditions. not only are they seeing inflation issues pick up, they are seeing a stagnation in their economies. parts of germany have not had positive growth in many quarters. this is a big deal. i don't understand why everybody is so confused about why interest rates are going up, despite the fed and their giant bias. it's pretty darn easy. a, they have been wrong. b, it is about inflation. it is nowhere near 2%. , that an deficits matter , and just because the fed is easing, does not mean investors are ignoring the data, which is pretty darn hard to ignore. they are not doing qe, the balance sheet is too big. there is a springlike quality to the longneck.

look at 201,000 in claims today. everybody is talking about how great that is. there is a seasonal adjustment problem during the holidays. 201,000 isn't really real, in my opinion, because if you look, an hour before that is when rates peaked, and they started coming down. they came right down right through that number. it was not until after the bond auction, as you look at the 30 year yield, at 1:00 eastern, a terrific auction, that rates bottomed out, and then cover the minutes and nervousness about the minutes in front of early closures tomorrow, stock close, pushed yields up a bit. if you look at the chart for 30 year bonds, it was pretty darn easy. it closed above and negated the double top at 481 on a closing basis. it gave you about 14, 15 basis points pretty darn quick. if you look right now where we sit on the 30 year bond, we are hovering at the highest yield close going back to the end of october, but get this, that

bond auction we had today, the yield, it was 4.913. we have not had an auction yield that high in a 30 year in 18 years. zoom that chart back to 2007. you see how close in general we are to yields. when you have auctions, your dae everyday raindrops, but that chart really shows you how significant a violation of 5% in long dated yields will be. brian. back to you. >> i want to refile mortgage and euros, because they are paying, what, 3%? 3.5%? why can we do that? >> you know what, in the europe and the eu, they have 6.5% unemployment, and they celebrated it's a whole different calibration. >> remember when mark cuban refinanced his loan to buy the mavericks into yen, so basically, the currency would depreciate. that was like 2013.

genius move. thanks, rick. rick santelli. the other big story we are following are the raging wildfires across los angeles. four separate fires are currently burning. the causes are not yet known, but as people risk their lives to fight them, the l.a. county fire chief says there are simply not enough firefighters to address fires of this magnitude. it is still a very dangerous scene. >> reporter: brian, the firefighters that we do have working on these fire lines are so frustrated, because this fire is counterintuitive. most fires travel uphills. this fire started at the top of the hill in the pacific palisades highlands this time yesterday, and it has been charging towards the pacific ocean. we are here on the corner of sunset boulevard and pacific coast highway in a parking lot, a beach made famous by baywatch,

and it is now, in flames. so many places, all up and down the coast, places we never, never thought were at risk for fire. more at risk for a storm surge or big waves. a very difficult fire to fight, and overnight, the most important tool that fire crews have in fires like these in the canyons are the air attack, water drops, helicopters. they get less effective with the higher wind, and then it's that much more dangerous. it's not even worth sending crews up to risk their lives to make drops, dropping water that will blow away and dissipate before it hits the ground. this fire overnight was like a blowtorch coming down the hill, and across los angeles county, from here on the way to the san gabriel mountains in altadena, there are four fires burning, as you mentioned. more than 1000 structures that have burned. tens of thousands of people evacuated, and many, many injuries, according to the l.a.

county fire chief, that did not heed the warning to evacuate, and stay behind. we have burn injuries. one firefighter injury, and two deaths in this fire under unspecified circumstances, but a difficult situation here. all across los angeles basin, it is a very scary day with these winds not expected to let up before the weekend. brian. >> jennifer, can you even hear me with how windy it is? when is this going to die down? >> reporter: it's crazy. kelly, i am standing here at a spot that usually, is a beautiful, clear blue ocean. it is like the eclipse. i was at the eclipse a few months ago, i think in april, and during totality, it is dark everywhere. it feels like my time. it feels like that. it feels like nighttime all over the city. and, throughout los angeles, there are big clouds hanging over, and it is dark, and the

wind is very, very scary. they expected that the highest winds would be overnight last night. they have extended that through till 5:00 today, but it's almost like -- i heard one weather forecaster put it this morning, if you have a temperature of 107 and you are dying, if your temperature goes down to 103, which, the wind is expected to die down by the weekend, but it's still dire. it's not okay. it's not going to be over because the wind has died down. it's going to continue through thursday, friday, and into the weekend, potentially, before we see this wind event died down. this is a windstorm like we haven't seen in, at least, 10 years, possibly more. i don't remember wind this sustained on this consistent since i have lived here the last 25 years. >> it is wild. to watch how bad it is, to speaking with you now, and the sky like you described, the way the fire came down the hill instead of going up, jennifer,

we really appreciate you joining us this hour. jennifer bjorklund with nbc. we want to show you shares of edison international, the utility in southern california. shares were down almost 13% today. it's unit is the power utility. nearly 70,000 of its customers are without power right now. previous wildfires were linked to issues with power equipment. there is no clear evidence tying edison to these fires, directly. >> i want to be very clear on that. we don't have evidence. i don't know what caused these fires. it could've been arson. it could've been anything. it's a terrible, awful situation. we did do a mini documentary about a year ago, put up on social media, which talks about utilities and wildfire risk, yet, no idea what started or caused these fires, but the winds referenced, no doubt, playing a role in this. those winds are plenty strong. >> they are legibly strong.

the questions about the brush, how that situation is being handled. how are they spreading so quickly? what makes this so unique? >> it's very dry. they had a lot of rain in the northern part of the state. it's very dry. it's my home, born and raised there, but it is very dry in southern california. the reservoirs, you are hearing a lot about water levels. i want to be very clear. there are 17 reservoirs in the state. the data is publicly available. they are all at or above historical capacity. there is plenty of water in the reservoirs. the critical issue is getting the water from the reservoir and the ground and the pipeline to the hydrants, so the brave men and women firefighters -- look at these winds. it's absolutely -- >> i'm glad you made that point. we talked with rick caruso, who had heard that, perhaps, the reservoirs were an issue.

>> no issues, whatsoever. the data is publicly available. anybody can use the internet and look at it for themselves. after the break, why rising yields may be a threat to stocks. they haven't been lately, but maybe now. plus, the hype around high flyers like quantum computing and micro strategy. both of those names losing momentum today. we will dig into both when power lunch returns.

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it's five years of gig-speeds and advanced security. all from the company with 99.9% network reliability. get the 5-year price lock guarantee, now back for a limited time. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities™. welcome back. we want to talk more about bond yields in the stock market, is a lot of attention on both, right? we have hit it all, not just on this show, but all day long, how bond yields have gone up in stock yields have gone down. earlier today, the yield, the borrowing rate on the 10 year note hit above 4.7%. that's an increase of about half a percent in a month. half a percent, in a month, i know, if you are not a bond expert does not sound like a lot, but in a bond market, half a percent in a month, is, i

think the technical definition is, a lot. what does the yield spike mean for stocks? well, we don't know, we can show you a little bit of history. this is what i want to do. i want to look at history. the 10 year yield is the blue line, and we have the s&p 500, the orange line. new york city, or the knicks colors. dare we say. normally, when yields fall, we see stocks rise. conversely, when yields go up, stocks can go down. we have seen in the past. how is my drawing, kelly? it's not too bad. we have seen it here, as well. what has happened lately, though, we are seeing both stocks and yields go up. the question is, for smarter people, maybe dominic chu or send holy, if they are out there. when yields have risen the last couple years, stocks have gone down. yields are rising now, but stocks have not gone down, at

least, not yet. the question we have to answer or ask, is, what does that mean, besides a really bad drawing on a telestrator? >> i thought that was flawless, for your first time. >> not bad. >> let's ask our next guest. will rising yields to be a bigger problem for the market in 2025? jeff kilburg is founder at kkm financial and cnbc contributor. all right, david, take it. why are stocks shrugging off these moving rates? >> i think we have to factor in, why are yields going higher? the drawing on the board demonstrated certain periods of time where yields were going up or down based on expectations or fed policy, or based on inflationary pressures. that will have a big impact on stocks. most recently, yields have been going up based on growth expectations. if yields are rising based on growth expectations, we can get more comfortable around

earnings growth. that is positive for stocks. if yields are going up because of deficit concerns, or because of inflationary concerns, you are going to see stocks fall. really, it's a function of what is driving yields, however, i would say that over time, lower yields favor the equity markets, particularly, longer duration equities like these mega cap tech names. that is something we will have to get used to. we will have to get prepared for hire, longer-term rates, higher rates across the curve as rates continue to normalize. >> jeff, i like the story of yields rising for good reasons, and it happened in the late 1990s, by the way, but the only difference between now and then is we have huge deficits and a big debt pile. when yields are hanging out at 5% or 6%, interest costs are going to be one of the biggest payments of the u.s. government. we are going to keep having deficits, we are going to keep having a growing debt pile, so we can be as comfortable with it now as we were back then

>> i think you are right, kelly. david laid out the narrative. he is absolutely right. you can see equities move higher with higher yields, is that the strong economy. that was the narrative in 2024. subsequent to the lection result, people got really excited. now, at 4.73 on the 10 year, for the first time, you saw it in the minutes, the markets are questioning, was the fed right in cutting? you went back to september, they cut 100 basis points, and the 10 year note is up over 100 basis points. as the fed is sniveling today, you are seeing skittishness, confusion. look at the s&p 500. we have seen the s&p 500 go positive, negative, over a dozen times. there is no leadership, little bit of confusion. for the first time, as we get closer to this 5% level on the 10 year, people are considering massive profit-taking or rebalancing, because 2023 and 2024 were historic equity gains back to back. at this moment in time, it

seems like the 10 year note may go to 5%, and that will have a little bit of an acute reaction to these high flyers or top 10 holdings on the s&p 500, which you can easily argue our way over concentrated. >> david, what would ou say to that? >> i agree. i think something you have to factor in, what do higher rates mean for the equity market? i think the problem today is that somebody people are yearning for the ultra low rate environment we saw in the last cycle. but they don't understand is that to go back to that ultra low rate environment means the economy has to collapse. we don't want that. what we want is normal. it's not going to be an overnight sensation where people wake up and say, okay, i'm okay with a 5% treasury yield, i still want to own equities. you will see allocations into bonds and money markets as these things happen, but over time, the normalization of rates makes perfect sense. it may skew your portfolio a little bit. you may want to own companies that are shorter duration in terms of prospects, but over

time, people have to adjust to a normalized rate of interest across the curve, and that is, actually, healthy for the economy and for the markets. >> just to add on quickly, the messaging coming from president- elect trump is confusing markets. will the biden vigilantes when and get the five year over 10%, or, will trump fire the fed and come in and promise lower interest rates? how will that happen? that type of conversation is going on right now in the markets, and that is why you are seeing skittishness and confusion on the long end of the curve. >> all right, gentlemen, thanks. coming up, we have a long way to go. energy and technology, are they tethered together? they just might be, and we will show you why, in market navigator. next ♪ ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere.

♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. getting there starts here.

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finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. we are at session highs. you just heard jeff kilburg talking about how we went back and forth 12 times today on the s&p between positive and negative territory. we are moving a little more decidedly in the positive direction for the dow is up 76 points right now, all of this after interest rates had backed up again, 4.69 on the 10 year, so i can't figure it out.

>> 59-50. anyway, let's talk a little bit about nvidia overall, outlining this new wave of superchips at the ces show on monday. supercomputers are still very power-hungry, and our next guest thinks that natural gas could be the big beneficiary of this trend. he is here to tell us how he is navigating that space. this is rob thummel from tortoise capital. nuclear, solar, anything power related for data centers and a.i. is the big theme these days, but why natural gas versus some of the other power sources? >> thanks for having me. for the first time in my career, my career in energy is intercepting with the technology sector. what that means for the future, more talk about zynga bites and terawatt hours, but more billions of cubic feet of natural gas. that is going to be the future of energy going forward. natural gas is going to be the main supply source of electricity generation, which,

if you think about it, natural gas will be the lifeblood for a lot of these data centers. if you look at a company like eqt, the largest producer of natural gas. the marsalis shale, not too far away from where you guys are in pennsylvania. that's a great way for investors to play the sector of higher natural gas sector, and at tortoise, we think that natural gas could increase by 30%. >> rob, let's talk about this for a second, because we had toby rice from eqt on a few days ago, and i asked him, what is going to happen with this huge tidal wave of supply coming online? all of these new lng terminals being built, and so forth, one that the press the price? he admitted, we would probably like to see prices in the 450 range to be more profitable than in the 350 range, where they are now. >> toby probably also talked to you about all the cost savings and cost cutting he has done to

lower the cost production of natural gas. we have a real benefit in the united states, and that we have a significant amount of low- cost energy. it is still here. it's going to be here a long time. it has kept consumer places low, inflation relatively low, and we have seven more decades of this to produce. >> rob, let me ask you, for those at home wondering, do i jump into eqt, do i jump into lng? what are the names where you feel the highest confidence quickly where people can benefit? >> pipelines, even. >> that's a good point. if you think about energy as a circulatory system you need, that is the distribution of energy out to various sources. you need these energy pipelines. williams company is an example, owns a massive pipeline network. it's impossible to replicate. a three or 4% dividend yield. they are going to grow the dividend 6% this year.

it's going to benefit from all these growing trends, whether it is coal retirements and natural gas. or, this a.i. development that is happening, as well. you mentioned, kelly, lng. the u.s. is the largest exporter of lng in the world. we are going to double it. that has gotten lost in this a.i. boom. liquefied natural gas, it's going to be a big deal. shamir is the largest exporter. high-quality cash flows, lots of stock buybacks. lots of dividends coming, as well. >> rob, thanks. we appreciate it. rob thummel. dom, it's one of those things where you go, it's great for the u.s., but it's still risky for investors. >> there is an interesting supply demand dynamic developing, so we will see where that lng trend and everything else goes. >> can i give you guys a dirty little secret? dare we call it, rbi, random but interesting.

who sold more lng to europe the last three years than any time in history? >> it better be america. >> and, russia. >> interesting. there you go. >> somebody blew up the pipeline, but they are still selling the l in lng. we will show you part of our exclusive sit down with the real power player, the ceo of chevron. we will see what's happening with oil and gas and their stocks with the best full-service wealth management skills in the biz. tech asst: actually i'm seeing something from schwab. (uh-oh) producer : yeah, schwab lets you invest and trade on your own. and if you want they can even manage it for you. not to mention, schwab has a team of specialists for taxes, insurance, and estate planning. both producers: all with low fees. carl: we're experiencing technical difficulties... uh, carl... schwab! schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. (♪♪) a modern approach the booking app i used

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a few weeks ago, the oil prices are going to crash theme was in full effect, and to be clear, they still might, but lately, oil prices have been rising, and that has helped oil and gas investors just a little bit. overall, let's be clear, oil and gas stocks pretty much stuck where they were two years ago. they may do no money, so we wanted to find out, what is really going on, and where we may go. today, we spoke with the ceo of chevron about whether with the white house changing, the next

four years will be very different than the previous four years. >> i do think the future is going to look different than the past. we have an incoming administration, particularly, in some of the key and -- agencies that has deep energy knowledge, and i think the desire to help formulate strong and sound energy policy for american consumers, for the american economy, and to encourage investment in american energy of all types, so we look forward to working with the incoming administration and continuing to build a strong american energy economy. >> i think the critics might say, and they might have a point here, mike, which is at 13.2, 13.3 million barrels of oil, gas, how much more room for growth is there? is american oil production already maxed out?

>> well, america is the largest producer in the world by a fair amount, with saudi arabia and russia coming in behind the u.s., and we have seen strong growth over the last decade, decade and a half. i think there is still some upside, but probably not growth at the rate we have seen over the last number of years, particularly, some of these new shale plays begin to mature. that said, there are other opportunities in the u.s. the deepwater gulf of mexico being a prime example, where we brought a big project online in 2024. we have another one starting up early in 2025, and a third one that will begin the middle of this year. there are still lots of opportunities in this country, and there is a lot of unexplored acreage. >> yeah, kelly, we spoke to mike wirth for a lot longer, about 15 total minutes with mike, so there was a lot to do. we talked about opec, we talked about gas, we talked about lng,

pretty much everything, and also, booming free cash flow, why isn't the stock getting more love? check out cnbc.com for the full thing. there is also a right upcoming. a lot more was chevron. >> this is all bringing me back to the era with exxon, back in 2007. >> 44 billion. >> right before everything blew up, but i'm thinking about the lng boom is kind of where it's at right now. oil is a uniquely american story. we drive gasoline cars. and, you just wonder if the economics would ever shift again to make them look at some of those booming areas. i don't know, but it's bringing me back to that. >> like i said, our two biggest competitors in liquefied natural gas, qatar and russia. people think, russia is out of gas. they are not. they are out of the pipeline gas game, and they are selling more record amounts of sales

for russia last year. speaking of energy, one of america's hottest stocks is an energy company. it is baltimore-based power producer, constellation energy. i know you guys have talked about it a ton on the show. power lunches the appropriate name. constellation today, down about 5%. it's on reports, just reports, that it may by privately held helpline for $30 billion. constellation owns, among other things, the nuclear plant formerly known as three mile island. it is now crane power. >> that's the one microsoft wanted to restart. >> that's it, and by the way, microsoft is willing to pay $100 per hour for that. >> and he regulators don't want it to happen, is that right? the point, the fact there is another deal of this magnitude being discussed, the trickle of the deal boom we have started to have, it feels to me like it's picking up it >> i have a feeling that the regulators that are coming may

not be the regulators that we had. >> indeed. let's get to bertha coombs for a cnbc news update. the israeli military says today, it recovered the body of a hostage in a tunnel in gaza. officials say they are identifying additional remains that could belong to another captive. the discovery comes as negotiators continue cease-fire talks in qatar, that would bring the remaining hostages home in exchange for the release of palestinian prisoners. two groups representing the credit reporting and credit union industries are suing the biden administration over a new rule that would remove medical debt from credit reports. the consumer financial protection bureau says the move would remove $49 billion in debt for some 15 million americans. trade groups argue the rule violates the fair credit reporting act, which allows the reporting of medical debt.

the ski patrol unit in utah reached a deal today with vail resorts to end a nearly two week long strike. the work stoppage led to long lines, closures and delays at the park city mountain resort in utah. no details were released about the deal, but the ski patrollers were calling for a wage increase from $21 an hour to $23. with all the snow out there, kelly, i'm sure folks want to get out on the slopes quickly. >> bertha, thanks. cnbc is accepting nominations for the disruptor 50 list. these are private, venture backed companies. scan the qr code or go to cnbc.com/disruptors to nominate or be nominated. we will be right back. crypto watch is sponsored by crypto.com.

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more of meta making more rule changes today, following yesterday's big shocker on their content oversight changes. the company announcing it's allowing ebay products to be listed on its marketplace platform on a trial basis. meta shares down 2% today, but ebay is getting a nice pop, shares of 12%, the high is at nine now. our next guest thinks we are at a turning point in the a.i. investor story. joining us is buried senior research analyst, colin sebastian. i did not have ebay on my bingo card as big movers out of ces this year. >> yeah, it might not be the first option you pick, but really, putting together the two largest e-commerce platforms operating outside of retail, facebook marketplace and ebay, really speaks volumes about the strength of both of those platforms and for ebay, it really puts them back on the map, i think, in terms of overall e-commerce.

>> hasn't facebook marketplace, basically, eating their lunch? we are showing shares of ebay, which are up 60% over the past year, but it seems to me they must have lost some decent share to facebook market place. >> yeah, i think over time in the classifieds business, facebook marketplace has taken a lot of share, where ebay has really establish itself as a leading marketplace outside of new and seasoned retail. liquidations, that are not about local sellers. so, they should products worldwide. that really distinguishes itself from marketplaces like facebook. that is part of what i think makes a lot of synergy potential from this combination. >> this is a name you think will continue to perform well, so investors thinking about owning the stock can rest on your recommendation there. maybe it is out of ces, or given the position in the space, do you think is interesting right now?

>> we are at ces, as you mentioned. there are thousands of companies, hundreds of thousands of people. it's amazing to see what the generative a.i. boom has led to, in terms of ideas and inspiration. from our perspective, it's hard to pick the winners in agents and applications, at this point. we like the infrastructure providers, so google and amazon, in particular, they are spending more on an annualized basis than hyperscalers. then the gdp's of countries like new zealand and finland, that is opening up new revenue opportunities. they will benefit from this a.i. boom. we continue to like the hyper scale in the structure companies. >> was there anything, when meta announced those content changes that would give you pause in that direction? maybe a little bit of a looser leash could ause blowback in the future. >> yeah, i don't think so. i think there was a lot of variability in content moderation through the

elections, through the pandemic, and i think there is a bit of a rightsizing, recalibration now. i think t's, generally, going to be a positive step. obviously, the devil is in the details, but for meta, i believe it's the right step. >> thank you for joining us, colin sebastian. meantime, shares of palantir are losing investor money this week, following a monster run last year, so the question on palantir, do you y re? do you sell it if you own it? we've got questions, and there are answers, in stock lunch, coming up.

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and they need your support. care.com is here to help. it's an easy way to find background-checked senior caregivers in your area. and some piece of mind. see why millions of families have trusted care. go to care.com now welcome back. it's time for today's three- stock lunch, and here with our trades, mr. michael farr. chief market strategist at hightower adviser, and of course, a cnbc contributor. first, chevron.

we heard a little bit from the ceo earlier today. the entire interview is at cnbc.com/pro, and michael, you say to buy chevron? >> i say buy chevron. thanks for having me, and congratulations on this great show. kelly, this is awesome. yeah, chevron's great and it's a must-see interview on cnbc.com. you've got to watch it. this is a 4.35% dividend, it is a fabulous balance sheet. oil is sort of stilts hello -- still below its normal range. anywhere around this 2.5% to 3% for 2025, i think these oil companies are a safe dividend play. it will be pretty good. >> we don't have a lot of time, but let's mention at&t, which had a nice year last year. do you like it? >> no. it's okay, kelly. i mean, at&t is fine.

so, how do you buy it now? you love the dividend. it's been great. at&t is a stalwart. i don't have a problem with it. as a whole, i can kind of do it, but i can't see where they will come up with big growth for this year. >> it's only up 20% on the year anyways. >> compared to palantir, the hottest stock. 340% gain. it's down a couple of percent this year. what do we do with palantir, michael? >> okay. if you all promise not to tell anybody, i bought the stock in may. just between us. i bought it in may, and my personal account, because my brilliant son robert said, dad, i like the stock, you should buy some. i did not buy enough, needless to say. i tripled my money in six months. i have sold 80% of my position, maybe more. it's about that.

and, i have kept some chips on the table to see, okay, i have gotten all my money out plus plenty. i'm going to hang on and see what happens here, but i did not buy it across the board. it was too risky. >> that is the best story i have heard from michael farr. welcome to closing bell. and scott wapner. we begin with a backup in yields, the uneasiness in stocks. we begin the final stretch here and we are watching the 30 year, the tenure as well with rates moving a touch lower. that was after a bond auction. nonetheless, the 30 year is closing in on 5%. there is the 10 year near 470. as a result of that, they have been unsettled for most of the week and they are, as you see, yet again, a