the table to see, okay, i have gotten all my money out plus plenty. i'm going to hang on and see what happens here, but i did not buy it across the board. it was too risky. >> that is the best story i have heard from michael farr. welcome to closing bell. and scott wapner. we begin with a backup in yields, the uneasiness in stocks. we begin the final stretch here and we are watching the 30 year, the tenure as well with rates moving a touch lower. that was after a bond auction. nonetheless, the 30 year is closing in on 5%. there is the 10 year near 470. as a result of that, they have been unsettled for most of the week and they are, as you see, yet again, a mixed picture.

not much movement in either picture. the rusoul is the biggest decline or day today with deals going up. it is worth watching several of the quantum computing names as well over this last hour. they are plunging. i guess that is the word for it. we are getting down 41%. quantum plunging. he delivered a bit of a reality check. we will watch those too. we are watching shares of solventum as well . a letter to shareholders was sent urging the company to focus on their performance. if they take the necessary steps to get it, thanks for talking. rapidly rising rates and the future of this rally. let's bring in cnbc steve lee smith and bryn.

i will go to you first. big of a story is this now for the market? >> i don't think it will be a big story three months from now. i think maybe we move a little bit higher. we have seen these numbers before. we saw them in 2024 where we almost touched 5%. i think we will get a settling out after the inauguration. we have some more understanding around the policies and what actually will happen or the potential to happened but i think the bond vigilantes are sniffing out. the economy is strong. we have lots of unknowns from the new administration that seems on the surface to be inflationary. as we get rates to be higher, it will be a great opportunity. i don't think they will be there by the end of the year.

>> the problem, steve, is not so much the level, it is not that we did not think we would be at this level when the fed started cutting rates in september. i am wondering how much you think the fed itself has been caught a bit off guard by all of this. >> i think they weren't expecting this. i would have expected, scott, that the improvement that we saw from april through september, maybe we had overdone it a little bit but right now, we have round tripped that. if you look at the 10 year over that period of time, it is interesting that the stocks have remained buoyant from that pressure and i think it does shift the risk around a bit which is this notion that we thought we were out of the woods on that refinancing thing because rates have come down but there is a lot of debt that will be rolling over from the pandemic. i think i have to go back and look at those charts again to see if that is an issue that is worth exploring in terms of risk to the system out there. people thought they would refi

and that gets to the heart of your question. people thought they would refi lower rates and now they will refi at the same rate they were at before. >> bryn, you make an interesting point that you think this soon will pass. three months from now, this will not be a problem. to steve's point, a.b. stocks have not completely fallen out of bed because it presumably what you think is the reason that this will all be okay. a lot of optimism about what this will bring. >> on steve's point about refinancing, i think around 20% of our debt, that is the market. the fed cannot control the market. as it relates to refinancing, that might be a slight positive because the rates have come down on the lower end.

i do think that your assessment about right now, the market is getting the benefit of the doubt that rates won't stay at this level but for certain sectors like for small caps, everyone was so bullish. if rates stay at this level, i don't think we will see the traders moving into those small- cap names as more interest rate sensitive names. i still say stay at the cap structure if you are going to do a broad-based play on rates. >> steve, how do you think this will impact policy. maybe understanding pat was the right move. maybe they think the stickiness of rates help their cause. on

the other hand, there has to be rates on the fed who are watching this and worrying that it might wreck the story that they think that they have written pretty well. >> if things go on the way they are going, maybe it dials back a bit. i have not heard yet, scott, concerns from the fed about these high rates. a couple of decent prints on inflation and some of it will go away. i think you've got to go back to what you are alking about which is the outlook for fiscal policy. on the one hand, it is buoyant when you come to things like tax cuts and deregulation and on the other hand when it comes to trade and immigration. it is a little hard, i am not

sure we have been doing this but the idea that the president just yesterday would not rule out military action against three allies, and that went along with a popping interest rates. i don't know if that is directly related but we want to make sure we don't normalize apparent insanity here. >> bryn, it raises an interesting point that we have seen this movie before, so to speak. trump has been president before. we know how he likes to either negotiate, make threats, do policy. at the end of the day, you don't really know what is what until something is firm and place. the market has placed a lot of its bets starting on election day that this would be a boom. now, we are learning that getting from point a to point b may be a little bit rocky. >> if anyone thought they weren't going to break some dishes when they came into this administration, you weren't paying attention. we will have some of this for a while. >> bryn , this is not --

>> i would be really happy if that is all we get, dishes broken. >> the proverbial dishes. i think you have to go back to -- first of all, trump wants to make a deal and that has been so consistent. you can't tweet one policy when it comes to the u.s. but then we do behind the scenes. you know he likes to create havoc. that relates to us as investors is there are sectors that will do well and do worse but ultimately, we will get earnings growth not only from the max 7 but from these ther 493. as long as that occurs, that will be the only thing that drives stocks higher and once rates settle, and i think they will over the next seven months, this will be

meaningful. >> i am going to ask you to stick around. steve, thank you very much. >> one very quick thing. i have a chart here, this is not about inflation, these rising rates. we just aggregated it and looked at inflation expectation since december. they are up 13 basins points. the 10 year is up 50. this is about growth, productivity, uncertainty, the fiscal deficit much more than it is about a change in inflation expectation. >> we did have some very strong economic data yesterday too which sent yields up. steve, thank you, as always. i said bryn was going to stick around because we are watching shares of palantir today under pressure a week, down near 15%. last i saw it was maybe down another 4% today. we have more on one of last year's top performers. >> we have more sellers and buys, the average price target

of $46 which does put the debt further down where the stock is training. it does coincide with a few executive ads selling stock including the chief financial officer, the chief revenue officer, all preplanned. kathy wood has unloaded about $15 million worth of stock this week but let's not forget that this is the best-performing s&p 500 name in 2024, gaining over 390%, driven by palantir 's growing role in building out artificial intelligence, helping government clients synthesize complex data and we are showing the numbers with a 30% jump in revenue in the last quarter. the question is, what multiple are investors willing to pay with palantir , trading at 146 times forward earnings, that is the seventh most expensive stock . >> good stuff, seema mody. thank you. that leads me back to you,

bryn, as you will stock. you sold half of it to start the year because you were getting a little uneasy with where you saw not only the valuation but the rise that the stock had. >> yeah. we all know that certain stocks will go much, much higher and then certain stocks will go much, much lower than they should and that is just the mechanism of the market but when i looked at the stock at the beginning of the year, i think it got up to 90 times 2025 sales estimates. maybe it was 90. that is just nosebleed. i just couldn't -- it is a great company but the valuation just got irresponsibly high and that is why you saw insiders selling, taking advantage of the frenzy around the name. they're going to come into earnings on february 5. the revenues and earnings are going to grow 27% and 40%, revenue and earnings growth. that when you have a technical breakdown, if you have traded below the 20 day, the 50 day, i

think you have to let it settle and because sentiment has switched on this. let it settle in and find a new base before adding to a new position. >> are there other palantir like names that you would have similar concerns about that you own? >> i sold half of my apple. it is not a palantir . it is the opposite. i don't see the revenue growth meaningfully making sense of the price of sale which was a 10, which is historically, i don't think it has ever been traded at 10 price. the last few years it has been six. more historically, it has been four. i really feel, within these names, you have to mind earnings and revenue growth. i think we will continue to see a real dislocation of the haves and have-nots. i don't think we will continue to see this rising tide lifting all boats and i think investors will demand real revenue and earnings growth and put that against the ultiple and that

is why i still think nvidia is in full position. i have a clear line of sight because everyone is telling us. everyone buying from nvidia, they are going to continue to dominate both revenue and sales. >> i was going to ask you your read on nvidia this week. the price has been really interesting on ces. justin wong speaks, the stock had already run up into, runs up a little after, then falls apart yesterday. it is down a fraction today but it is still down more than 3% on the week. >> yeah. i have half of my position that -- a while back, i have february 160 calls. i did not want that to get called away but if you listen to what jensen said, he's telling you the playbook of the names to own and the sectors to not own and at the onset, you hear them talk about the quantum computing name but it is like micron, that will be a winner. robots, robots, robots.

there are multiple companies -- for me, i tesla. nvidia is this company that is telling you what is happening within this a.i. space. i don't think it is long with nvidia at all but i think the markets are choppy around it and also the earnings did not come out until the end of february. there is nothing to get super excited about. i think that 150 remains that ceiling and i do think at some point this year it will break out of that because the revenue and earnings growth will just demand that and will pull the stock up like it has the past two years. >> we watch all of that. bryn, thank you. that was bryn talkington. we will go to the broader market now. the doubt is positive, albeit barely. kevin gordon of charles schwab joins me now. nice to see you. >> what is your read on all of this as you have listened to our conversation? >> i love weprin was just talking about in terms of when

you get stretch valuations and you get hot sentiment and then it flips on the switch. it can send a name or an industry or stocks in other directions and that brings me to a theme we have had for a couple of quarters now, especially heading into 2025 where when you look at sentiment environment and 24, a lot of the etrics that we track were stuck in extreme optimism territory for a big chunk of the year. you only had a few eriods where it was early april to late april in the midsummer drawdown where some of that got washed out and then it came back very quickly. the environment and the ground is a little bit shakier heading into this year because you had gone through a really long stretch of it being in extreme optimism territory. it is not a reason in and of itself for stocks to sell up automatically but when you have that shaky foundation and you have a little more vulnerability, it opens you up to more of a draw down when you have a negative catalyst. >> do you feel like you are on the precipice of a narrative switch, of a sentiment change? as we also discussed with bryn

and steve liesman to start the show, there is optimism about what will happen despite some of the concerns about sticky inflation and escalating deficit. >> the problem is you have these cross prints. from a policy standpoint you have less change in regulation, maybe a rollback and regulation, something that is more beneficial from a tax policy standpoint but there is also a tiding mismatch because you have a regularly aggressive tariff policy and you have a relatively aggressive immigration policy that is being proposed. it is human nature to look at all of these proposals and take them at once and say, here is the ultimate it will happen but we know that is not the case. that is the benefit for investors and probably the benefit for the economy for most of this year if not all of this year where if you exclude tariffs, everything from an immigration standpoint takes a longer time to implement especially for taxes. that is not something that the president can do unilaterally. that is why we are focusing a

lot more on what could happen from a tariffs standpoint and from an immigration standpoint but probably tariffs gives you that first hit and then immigration falls under. you have to look at the suit can sing and what the result is and from a growth standpoint -- maybe it is a little bit more of a contrarian view but i think that the risk is more on the growth side, not as much on the inflation side unless you get significant retaliation from other countries and you go into a full-blown trade war. the tariff increase itself is more of a one time price increase. i would look from a cap x standpoint and see if that materially slows and takes a hit. >> investors are a little spooked by the move in rates. are you? >> not as much. right now, it is consistent with a relatively healthy growth backdrop. it is not like we have seen some fall in estimates for gdp growth heading into this year or even at the end of last year. if you have for some reason the material weakening in the labor markets, friday's jobs reports

are really weak and then you have some heat from cpi and therefore cpe, i would grow more concerned. one of the reasons that you haven't seen as steep of a selloff even as the rate of change in something like the 10 year has really picked up and you are getting closer to 4.7 and breaking closer to 5%, one of the reasons is that because the growth backdrop is relatively sparse. >> you have to keep in mind too, if you take a longer look at the 10 year, in the sense of the last three to four years, you have gone through these spouts, most notably the july to october 2023 period where the 10 year did get up to 3% for a hot second and then a reversed. when you get to that point, you have significant pullback in the market. over that time, we have been able to move higher, not without a lot of drawdown. the level is maybe not as important as the rate of change in certain instances. the rate of change has been significant since december. >> to the point where people

are pretty surprised. >> in terms of the drawdown itself, the bull market coming to some sort of imminent end, that took part about this and you are mentioning this at the beginning of the show, this maybe being more to the benefit of the large caps than the small caps. that is where you see more of a dramatic turn in the market, maybe more money moving in at the expense of small if both the level and the change of rate stays relatively elevated. >> will that remain the case? you have this move back into tech, a couple of days not withstanding but cereals down 8.5%. real estate down 8. industrial down 6. tech had come back to life to some respect. how does the picture look over the next three to six months? >> excluding industrials, the breath profile for this cluster of sectors which has been really interesting for traditional defenses like staples, healthcare, also more of those commodities sensitive materials like energy, those

four sectors have been much weaker than it has been for things like industrial or financial, certainly for the growth trio of tech communication services and discretionary. if you stay in this environment where growth is relatively healthy but inflation -- if it is not reheating back to 2022 levels, but it gets a little bit of a firmer underpainting, that could still work for some of the deeper parts of the market but once you start to introduce areas like materials and energy, you would need more of a pickup than global growth to really work. i don't really see that to be the case right now because the rest of the world is relatively weak if you compare it to the u.s. but at the end of the year, that could change. >> your story sounds like me to be that rates are going up for the right reason so it is okay and you are sticking to that story until you are not. there are some calls for 5%, if not above that. we did get one of those today. >> probably a psychological

level, a fear of 5% itself. they will be a lot of narratives attached to that from a physical standpoint but if you look at the growth standpoint and it remains relatively healthy, the market can do well. the one thing i will say that has definitely changed over the past couple of months and we have been keeping an eye on is the breath profile has deteriorated. >> significantly. >> these other areas going down while tech becomes this almost monolithic thing. >> it deteriorated in drawdowns that we had in 2024, even 2023 if you are looking a percentage of companies that were above the 200 day average. there was a significant washout. >> what to watch for ur standpoint going forward when we do get another balance higher and when you do make another all-time high for the s&p, whether that is in a couple of days or a couple of months, the rebound from there is really important to watch.

if there was more of a divergence, it would open up a scenario or a replay of what we had in 2021 where the market was continuing to do well but deteriorating under the surface. that would look forward to a much weaker scenario for the market. >> i feel like we covered it all. thank you. >> let's head now to christina for the biggest names moving into the close today. >> shares are climbing after acquiring both medical. boston shares up 4.5. boston has a 26% stake and will require the remaining share with upfront payment of roughly $443 million and then they may have to spend another $221 million after the regulatory hurdles. data from a type i diabetes treatment is sending shares soaring now and i say soaring, almost 200% higher. it was up more than 300% yesterday. the market cap now sits at just $1 billion.

>> kristina partsinevelos, thank you. we are just getting started. intelligent output pounder is back with us and we will find out how he is sizing up the tech trade. the names he says could lead the next a.i. leg higher. >> we are live at the new york stock exchange and you were watching closing bell on cnbc. -what've you got there, larry? -time machine. you gonna go back and see how the pyramids were built or something? nope. ellen and i want to go on vacation, so i'm going to go back to last week and buy a winning lottery ticket. -can i come? -only room for one. how am i getting home? sittin' on my lap like last time, ronald. fine, but i'm bringing this. [ whirring ] alright. or...you could try one of these savings options. the right money moves aren't as far-fetched as you think. there it is. see? told you it was going to all work out. thanks, future me.

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was asleep and now i feel like it roared back and now i don't know what to do with it because i see rising rates and some of these are rolling pretty hard. >> it has been an uncomfortable start to the year. i felt like we were off to the races and all of a sudden people are starting to doubt again. what we look back is the fundamentals. first, are these big cap tech names that expensive? are they overpriced? nvidia is trading at 32 times. a big group of the mad 6, excluding tesla. it is not cheap. i don't think it is egregiously expensive. as we look forward to the rest of this year, i still do have pretty good confidence that the a.i. train is alive and well. i think nvidia will continue to work and microsoft and meta--- meta are the names that you can own. >> you did not say apple. conspicuously absent from your list. basically, the move from wwdc

to close to now was pumped, based on nothing that had to do with anything with fundamentals. >> i think it is harsh but i think it is also probably fair and the reality for apple is this. there is this incredible opportunity for all of these companies with a.i. and apple has shown that they are dipping their toes into a.i. but they have not shown us anything yet of substance that should move the needle in terms of showing people i have to upgrade my iphone. we won't get any more substance from that until this year's wwdc. that is a key event for them. >> so we have to wait again. you are not counting on an upgrade cycle. rather than one big event, it just becomes this rolling deal that will be good enough? it will just take you longer to

get to the destination you thought you would be. >> i think that is the right way to think about it. the bar is low but i also think that apple, even if they don't get the a.i. tailwind, they have easy comps. they have done enough with a.i. and other upgrades to the iphone 16 that they can beat that low bar. the question in my mind, when getting excited about apple is, what does it look like for next year? can they exceed and get back into that strong double-digit kind of growth? we have not seen that in a long time. the people hope they can accelerate too. we don't know what that will be that can drive that kind of growth until later this year. >> what do you think of this back up in rates in general? are you concerned it will derail what will be a pretty good market heading into this year? >> we use a.i. and intelligent alpha to make

predictions about he market. one of our predictions of our trio that we use predicted that the back half of the year would have a 10% labor of correction. what is specifically called out was that we may have a recurrence of inflation and that may looks like what we are experiencing right now with rates becoming more stable, maybe even rising a little bit. i would not be surprised if we do eventually get some sort of market correction driven by a narrative around rates and inflation because that is what the market has been sensitive to for the last two years. we have been lucky in my opinion. the markets have been relatively tame. we have only had one 10% correction. it is very unscientific but maybe we are due. >> if nothing else, maybe in

the year term, does a throw cold water on the idea that you could have a broadening market? we portray you as a tech investor primarily and they do have many of those big names within your holdings, whether it is with intelligent alpha or deep water but you do have industrials. you got some consumer stock . you have retail. >> that is right. i think that as we think about this rate picture and what it might do to markets, i would separate it from the idea of taking individual stocks and that is what we try to do at intelligent alpha and deepwater . we are trying to be cognizant of what is the reality and how that might impact the markets but fundamentally, we try to identify the companies that hopefully have a secular growth story where we have high conviction in, relative to trying to play cyclical trends that would be more sensitive for rates. >> we will leave it there. doug, appreciate you. talk to you soon. coming up, the latest trades from kevin simpson

including the one financial stock he is yibung that is up more than 50%. the bell is coming right back after this.

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better questions. better outcomes. t. rowe price we are back. stocks are struggling for direction once again. that is after the selloff yesterday. joining me now to share his trades is kevin simpson, cio and founder of capital planning. what are you doing?

a lot of people are sitting here worried about rates. it obviously is not keeping your hands -- you are not sitting on your hands, i should say. what is the most recent trade you made? >> we have seen volatility since the holidays. earlier this week, our lagship -- this is a stock down and around $250 in december. it was about $12 on the upside. $1.10, a little over -- the annual rise is up. we like that a lot. let me give you one of our growth strategies. who doesn't like talking about nvidia and the volatility there, especially this week it is off the chart.

we saw the calls this friday. forget the 8% cash out we saw with j.p. morgan. if you analyze that with this short time, it is a 60% annualized return. it really is about what you can do in periods like this, a great, intense volatility and the broader markets. we really thought that the santa claus selloff and this volatility was a symptom of low- volume windowed dressing -- >> hey, kevin, forgive me. i've got like half of that. there is something wrong with your audio. if i got half of that, i don't know what our

viewers got so we are going to work on that. let me take a quick break and we will come back with you on the other side if we can figure this out and get it fixed. we are tracking the iggest closers into the close. when we come back, kristina partsinevelos is standing by. do you want to tell us what you see now? >> we see a new member of the s&p mid task club and the bird flu is having sales -- helping sales of one company. we will have that after a short break.

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we have some news about eli lilly. >> that is right. medicare can now cover eli lilly's drug zepbound used for sleep apnea. remember, medicare cannot cover obesity drugs. however, it can cover the drugs when it is used for other health conditions. zepbound last month getting approval for the use of sleep apnea and now cms confirming it can be covered for that use. take a look, shares up about 2%. >> thank you for that update. now we go back to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the key factors. >> let's start with instacart. the s&p mid-cap starting next tuesday replacing this. other news for the stock, you see shares up over 5%. the delivery company is partnering with volta beauty to deliver beauty products nationwide. shares are up.

they have doubled in the last year but let's talk about ulta. it is down 3%. that has more to do with the retirement of its ceo. have you noticed egg prices higher at the grocery store? maybe barely any eggs available? the supply keeps getting cut because of recent outbreaks of bird flu. it may not be helping your wallet but higher prices and recent holiday demand did help them boost their share for 82% compared to the year prior. i am definitely having shell shock from these high egg prices and copy prices too. we will have to hatch a plan for breakfast. okay, i am done. >> very clever. as always, kristina partsinevelos, thank you. >> kevin simpson is back. he is the cio and founder of capital wealth planning. we think we have figure this all out. let's try this again. nvidia, you did what the other

day? >> yesterday, scott, we tried to harvest to the volatility that we saw in the free market. we wrote a call expiring this friday. for three days, the option brought in one dollar per share. it is a $147 strike. it gives us a little bit of upside. if you annualize out the premium, this is a fun thing to look at. it is 60% annualized premium. when you have markets like this that are volatile, that are shocking, to your point, we will not sit on our hands and we will try to harvest the volatility. we have seven dollars to the upside and two days left in the option. >> j.p. morgan trade was what? >> a little bit more boring. this one expires in two weeks. is is our dividend strategy. the stock bottomed out around 230 in mid december and it has come up around 242. we have $12 of upside potential over the next two weeks but it brought in $1.10 and when you annualize that out, it comes up to an 8% annualized premium and

that is what we look for in our main strategy. the nvidia trade is super fun to look at but if you look at these blue-chip companies and you can generate an extra 5% or 6% a year in option premium, it can really help, especially in a year like 2025 where things might just not automatically go to the moon again. >> what did you do with robin hood? >> this is in our growth strategy also. this was a final trade on friday with the halftime report. this is a stock that started off with the pandemic as a meme trading thing. cryptocurrencies, things like that. they are really maturing and they are looking at the long term plan in wealth management. they recently bought a firm called trade pmr which services the custodian shift. they are doing a lot of education online. they are going after retirement accounts. this is a firm that recognizes a generation of wealth transfer that is going to happen and they have the infrastructure to deal with the younger investors and if they can capture a bit of that market share and the wealth generation, this is a

company to certainly watch. >> we will. thank you for bearing with us. > appreciate having you back. >>still ahead, ebay shares are serving. stocks having their best day in two years today. we will tell you why, coming up.

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selling your home to opendoor is so easy, you can do it during half time. get started at opendoor.com we are now in the closing bell market zone. cnbc market commentator here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. ebay is tracking for its best day and more than two years. that is why julia will tell us what is behind the move. we will cover the potential multibillion-dollar deal brewing in the energy space. i will start with you, mike, and what you want to leave our viewers with as we approach the close here on another uneven day for stocks. >> really just trading between what yields are doing. are they breaking out, starting to get a little bit calmed down? the 10 year is six or seven basis points. there was a little bit of inter- day relief and unlike when we

started strong in the average stocks went south, we started deep in the hole with negative breath today and recovered because it seemed like maybe the bond buyers were showing up. i don't know if the fed minutes were really changing the story very much but they accentuated the fact that we are flying here in terms of the application a policy. >> maybe the auction at 1:00 helped the story. it was a pretty good demand. it took the edge off. >> totally. >> maybe that helped a little bit. >> i totally think so. i have been here for days saying we are at levels where you want to lock that in. 2.3% yield at this level after inflation expectations. yeah, we have supply but we know it is coming and in theory, they want some. >> the auction was a little bit of evidence that that is and the idea that we have started to take on. if you have the bond market over while stocks are closed, kind of a funny set up.

maybe stocks just didn't want to make any assumptions about what happens tomorrow but going into the jobs number, at least we are back from the brink. >> we will come back to you in a few. we mention ebay trucking for its best day in two years. what is going on, julia? >> meta announcing a test in germany, and u.s., enabling users to browse ebay listings on facebook marketplace and then complete their transactions on ebay. shares of ebay moving nearly 10% higher on the news today. this move invites other sellers on facebook marketplace comes after the european commission in november find -- fined meta over abusive practices that benefited facebook marketplace. meta breached u.s. antitrust rules and among other things, it posted unfair trading conditions on other online classified ad service providers. meta saying that it is working to address issues but the commission's decision on

facebook marketplace, as we continue to appeal that decision. back over to you. >> julia, thank you. that is julia boorstin. now, the energy space. what we know? >> constellation is off the board levels of the day but still down 5%. the company is nearing a deal to buy a equity owned independent power producer. last year it was reported that they were exploring options. perhaps not too much of a surprise that constellation could be a suture given a combo of gas and geothermal units. constellation narrative, the price tag could be $30 billion including debt and some of the stocks downturned on worries that the price tag could spark incremental equity needs and therefore dilution. constellation is also one of the top s&p stocks in the last year with shares doubling on the back of nuclear power enthusiasm. constellation did not return requests for comment.

alpine-x owners declined to comment. >> thank you. that is it for stevens. i will turn back over the next 10 days and we will continue to game out the trump administration, the pluses and the negatives in terms of what it could be for the economy, rates and the market. we may not have answers for a few weeks until we get some executive orders, we see what is what related to tariffs, what the possible implications are for interest rates. we might be sitting on our hands for little bit trying to figure this all out. >> two days in a row, we had reports about the approach of tariffs that seemed like they got either countered or watered down or nobody was willing to run with them. yesterday, it seemed like national economic emergency will be declared today. i do think that it is okay that the market is wait and see on

those things. interesting that some of the committee members were trying to build in the assumption about inflationary effects of tariffs. this morning, waller said he was not concerned about inflationary effects from tariffs. that would be of use in making fed policy. other words, find, there will be some frictional price increasing perhaps from tariffs here and there but it shouldn't sway the feds and the fact that underlying drivers and inflation will not be changing. therefore, we are far from what he thinks of as a neutral rate. that all said, nobody knows what to make of it. will have to have a theory but we are going to have to wait it out. i do think it is the behavior of the real economy on the way to getting those answers that matter. i don't think news on jobs is itself a negative unless it really gets a further boost. the market will conclude that the market couldn't handle the bond yields. we have a $200,000 payroll and

that is going down. >> it is interesting how the psychology has changed a little bit from election day where, if you felt right after that it was decided, all of the positives were on one end of the scale and there were not any negatives. now we are evening output you put deregulation and tax cuts on one side and then you go with tariffs on the other. are we going to try to take greenland? the panama canal? those issues have to be making the market somewhat uneasy. >> it is draining conviction out of the market. that is not to say making people overly negative but it is definitely causing a rethink of what a very bullish intense coming into this year. it is a trap that we have the 2016-2017 template out there and one of the aspects -- you would be surprised how the market could ignore erratic policymaking with tariffs.

it is very different now. >> i don't know if you can hear me. i can't chaos >> it's all good >> that's the end of regulation. intercontinental exchange ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. stockers wavering between gains and losses as investors keep a close eye on treasury yields and we have the latest signals from the fed. that's the score card on wall street the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. >> ahead this hour, how worried should the bulls be about rising bond yields? tom lee out with a new note on that t