closed tomorrow to mourn the death of former president jimmy carter friday will be a big day on wall street on the economic front, investors will digest the december jobs report, economists predict nonfarm payrolls will rise by 155k. >> and investors will get their first taste con tell lake and tilray. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight heading higher ten-year yields at levels not seen since april the rapid move in the last month having an outsized effect on some sectors we go under the hood to find out what it says about the market. plus, a quantum conundrum. the stocks typed to the next level of computing technology plunging after a massive recent run. what spooked investors and where the trade goes from here. and later, "fast money" turns 18 today we'll look back at the humble beginnings of the show and a look ahead at just how much has changed in the business world and markets since day one. here's what's on tap tonight

live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman dan nathan, and guy adami. that's not them. >> whoa! whoa >> that doesn't look like me >> here they are >> whoa! >> guy, you get better with age, buddy. >> surely wiser. on this anniversary show. all right, before we get to the celebration, we start off with the rates ripping higher. the ten-year yield up 60 basis points in the last month the move putting pressure on major averages the dow losing 4.5% in that period the s&p 500 down 3%, and the nasdaq dropping 2% but a closer look may suggest that even bigger problems are looming. rate sensitive sectors like home builders, small caps plunging over the past month. so, could it spread even further, guy >> well, happy anniversary i wore a jacket for the occasion, which i never, ever do >> you dressed up. >> i mean, that is the story and again, it's not -- wasn't

the inversion in the yield curve. that's the warning sign. it's the resteepening. now it's as steep as we've seen in quite some time i don't think a lot of people anticipated ten-year yields a month and a half, two months after the fed starts cutting rates to be 4.7% and i still think they're going higher for whatever reason, the market is starting to care. i think it's going to care more the higher it goes >> this is a global problem. japan is over a percent, for instance >> japan, to me, is a lot more dramatic let's talk about a 13-year chart in japan and really have been crescendoing higher. i'm not even sure this is a level that we're going to rest at, and there is an argument that we've made that global rates are going to pull up u.s. rates. japan has inflation. the question is, what are they going to admit to and what are they going to do japanese investors have been relative buyers. meanwhile, chinese yields continue to go through the

post-covid lows, in other words, there's a real sense that the chinese deflationary spiral is spreading. everywhere else, there is pressure upward on rates >> the fed minutes were interesting today, i thought steve liesman, when they first came out, had this assessment that two-thirds of what was in the minutes indicate, would have been the case for holding or raising rates, and i thought it was very bearish, as well. >> right that was interesting and i think that that presser, which was ultra hawkish, sort of reflected that he said, if you read these minutes and knew what the outcome was, you wouldn't think that would go together this idea that the fed thinks about, what if these policies happen, and what do we need to do ront of that, where they normally just wait, see, what are the policies and how do we respond? so, all that having been said, though, i did cover a little tlt today, just because i feel like it has moved so much, and then that auction was actually -- that actually wasn't anything to

be afraid of this one but i do think -- if things are going up for the right reasons -- there are some industries that can do well in this, banks for example, right rising rates could be a good thing for banks. not so great if you don't earn a lot of money and it's all huge earnings, you know, expectations in the future, discounted back >> and we're going to get a sense of that in q rf 4 earnings how much we're going to hear constant currency. let's see what these companies that have a lot of exposure overseas have to say about that and what that means for growth, and we know you just mentioned the small caps, mel. this is a sector where the cost of call toll is high the services the debt is high. and they're going to be subject to issues related to tariffs if we do have a trade war but this brings me back to late 2021, where the fed said they were going to raise interest rates. and what sold off? things like kwan quantum computg if you thought about unprofitable tech, grip poe,

crypto, that sort of thing you saw the fateful eight, those things reversed. >> the fateful eight meaning -- >> what does that mean >> max seven plus broadcom, you know that, tim we've done away with the mag seven, and now -- >> a lot's happened, apparently. >> the market is in the fate of those eight stocks when you put a lot of that price action together, that sentiment together, and you say to yourself, q-4 better be great, and people better have confidence in that 13%, 14% expected ed eps because if there is not a lot of confidence, as we get into february, then, we are going to have a selloff if you just look at the selloffs we've had over the past couple of years but the one thing is, and guy feels this way, if we have the ten-year back above 5%, it's not like a kiss, if it looks like it's establishing a new range, that has to weigh on equity valuation. >> i agree i'm glad tim brought up china. that currency has been sort of going -- same type of levels that we saw seven or eight years

ago where the market got concerned. it's fascinating that the yen continues to weaken with their interest rates going higher, and something's about to give there. there's going to be some sort of intervention -- >> they have to defend that currency. >> without question. and we'll see how that plays out. the last time it happened in a meaningful way was in july on a cpi day, if i'm not mistaken, on a thursday, and by september, we got down to 139 or so, that was around that august 5th date. so, there's a lot out there outside u.s. to be concerned about. >> i think about the world of, again, interest rates and what it could mean, and where equities have come from during a period if you go back to april 25th, which is where we hit that 4.70, s&p was at 5,000 well, it rallied a lot on higher interest rates, but rates really pulled back. we're in an environment where i think it sets up friday's payroll number to be a huge number, because -- get a sense that, you know, much stronger labor market than the fed really

signaled when they cut by 50 and they pointed out, we're here to defend the labor market if it doesn't need any defense at all, but the four-week average is back to april of 2024 numbers. there's zero sign that the labor market's falling out of bed. if you see soons there's actually more tightness there, or strength, or wage pressure, which is certainly what we kind of inferred from the ism number that came out two days ago, or yesterday, that's the stuff that i think actually -- it's crazy, we had the growth scare back in august, and now we might have the other growth scare, which is actually we're growing too fast. >> right, right. >> right, no, i agree with that. although, i come back to the same -- if we're growing -- >> we're good. >> for some. for ome industries, i think that parts of the market is good and i think -- when you talk about that earnings expectation of the s&p, i think it's sort of a barbell where you have some that are growing much faster than that. we need those to perform, for sure, right? we need the fateful eight.

>> i like what you did there dollar general made, like, eight ten-year lows today. we talked about this kind of k-shape recovery, we talked about the tradedown we've seen into walmart, but the very low end, it does not act well at all, and that has to say something about, what is the spiral effect we're going to see if we start to see unemployment get a little worse, i mean, right now, what are we, 4.2, something like that, we got down to 3.6 at the lows there's going to be a breaking point at some point, where people are going to be like, okay, maybe there's some artificial stuff and the new administration is going to do everything they can to keep that going but if mass deportation happens, who knows what the heck happens. that's a potentially really big monkey wrench. >> all of these things are inflationary tariffs, immigration policy. and this all lines up with what a lot of strategists were predicting last year, a correction in volatility in the first quarter. a pull-back. here we are, although it's rates that are causing it here at this point. >> and currencies.

>> currencies, yeah. >> katie stockton over the summer talked about this, and i'll say, she was right, that once volatility starts to imbed itself, it doesn't go away over time it usually lasts, you know, 9 to 12 months, and i think we're probably six months into this thing. i think early this year, vol is going to be the story. you've seen spikes in the volatility index, you saw it on december 18th, again on the 27th and i think you're going to see a lot more of it into the year >> for more on rates and the market, let's bring in mike schumacher from wells fargo securities great to have you with us on set. what do you make of this move in rates that we've seen, and where are we headed? >> pretty messy, frankly from our point of view, what really changed things is powell's comments on december 18th we were, i'd say modestly bullish until that point once he spoke, we said, no, done fed might cut a couple more times, but they're in no rush to do it, so, why do you want to be long bonds at that particular stance you probably don't so, from our standpoint, being long something like a four,

five-year treasury, fine ten-year, 30-year, no particular reason to get long at this point in time. >> right i read in the notes you seem to think that yields are not reflecting all the risks that are currently out there, so, what are the risks that are not in the move higher yet and how much higher can we move on those risks >> yeah, it's really interesting. when you think about markets, i'd say right now, you got so many different possibilities with this combination of central banks shifting gears, inflation, maybe it's sticky, maybe it's not. politicians getting into the fray, not just in the u.s. how many governments have fallen over the past couple of months, maybe five, six? a lot of things to calculate from our standpoint, you can imagine a case where let's say republicans get their act together, despite the speaker thing, and manage to pass legislation, not just extend the low taxes we have today, but cut them further, budget deficit gets much bigger, people say, wow, this is bad news. long-term rates can go up a lot. at the same time, if tariffs come in and they're big and

broad-based, not just an extra 5%, 10% against china, something nutty against mexico, but broad-based, other countries retaliation, that is almost universally bad for growth maybe not a global recession, but a slowdown in that case, i think people are underpricing the risk that yields go down a fair bit, so, you've got one case where rates go up a lot on the long end. another which is maybe a 10% or 20% probability, has them coming down quite a bit it's very difficult to try to sort out for investors and for your viewers all these odd scenarios now. >> what about the strength in the dollar which doesn't seem to want to go down at this point and at a certain level, i think that's going to be a tremendous headwind for equities. >> i would agree with that, guy. it makes me want to lean against it, because pretty much every client i talk to says, oh, yeah, strong dollar, strong dollar but you go through the arguments and you made a few a couple minutes ago, china, for instance big economic weakness, a lot of stimulus, contrast that with the u.s. pretty strong economy, higher

rates, that big gap ought to drive the dollar a lot higher. i think it will. and yet client after client says the same thing dollar euro, vacation pricing, looks pretty good if you are sitting here in new york let's go to london, paris, it's 103. does it go to parity we think it does i can make a lot of really good arguments for the dollar strengthening. eventually, it becomes a headwind >> you might have alluded this with the strength that the dollar is going higher where are the global macro funds? what's their trade for this year we can look back on last year and we can see there were some obvious places this group played these are some of the biggest funds in the world what's the strategy? >> i think they're trying to figure that out, tim they hit the trump trade pretty well you say, rates go up, equities rally, dollar strengthens, boom, i'm in if you got a couple of those right, it was a great year for this year, it's much more of a tough calculation. trump's already in, that trade's run a fair bit you really want to load up right now? probably not so, i think they're trying to

sort that out. probably take their qs over the next month or two, i would think, in the u.s. once a new administration comes in, we actually see what it can do with congress don't know yet and once some of these tea leaves start to settle overseas, too. >> michael, great to see you thank you very much. >> nice to be here on the 18th, too. >> look at that. >> well-known across wall street, we turn 18 today >> legal now >> yes, exactly. >> we can't drink, but we can -- >> vote. >> we can vote >> we wouldn't drink anyway. >> no, family show milk okay what's your trade for the year >> what is my trade for the year i'm always long. i know so, i'm staying always long. of course, i'm afraid of -- i have a lot of mag seven-ish, fateful eight kind of exposure, but i think there's legs to that story. >> yeah. dan? >> listen, i think the concentration in fateful eight is kind of disturbing. i said that last year, i said it probably two years ago at some point, it's going to matter i go back to the view of 2021,

it was megacap tech after the risky stuff sold off that's what led the bear market down and people forget netflix, tesla, handful of other names, 75% from their highs nvidia sold off 75%. people don't think that can happen i'm not saying that's going to happen, but if this gen a.i. thing doesn't materialize this year the way people expect to from a use-case scenario, the stocks are going to go down, because the pull forward in enthusiasm, the pull forward in multiple, the spend that's happened is going to weigh on their growth, and especially if we hit a tough spot in, you know, in the economy so, to me, that's kind of dangerous right here and again, i said that six months ago, but it becomes increasingly dangerous as rates go up and then we have this kind of weakness abroad i want to say one last thing there, microsoft, when they put out that $80 billion number on capex, they said, half of it is going to be here half of it is going to be global if the globe slows down, they're not going to be spending any billion dollars.

>> let's try to thread this into where the last bit of the market is what's going on with megacap tech, what's going semiconductors if we look at march 2024, semis got out of the gates up 30%. semis are effectively, at least as a group, and some did a whole lot more, like nvidia. if you look at that group, that group's up 4%, almost until ten calendar months. and so, the question is, where's the leadership going to come from i think we are going to stay more concentrated in that group than a lot of people want, but right now, that's the question. we are watching shares of nvidia, falling on a record that president biden is looking to put further restrictions on exports in nvidia and amd a.i. chips. nvidia just responding to the news, saying every data center is being accelerated and every business and application is incorporating mainstream a.i a last minute rule restricting exports to most of the world would be a major shift in policy that would not reduce the risk of misuse, but would stleten economic growth and u.s. leadership shares are down nearly 10% since

hitting a record high earlier in the session yesterday. we talked about this yesterday with katie stockton, it was a reversal, hit the high, closed on the low, it was, like, 200%, 300% of the average daily volume heavy volume on that day what does that mean to you >> traded, i think 375 million shares yesterday, so, almost twice normal volume. you're right to point that out made an all-time high. closed on the lows the same formation we saw in march. the same we saw in june. in march ch, the stock went down 35% from march into middle of april. in june, it took a lot less time into august, probably 40%, 45% on that august 5th low i think you're setting up exactly the same way i'm not a hater, but history is repeating itself, and the amount of volume yesterday should really give people concern >> not sure people were putting in their nvidia risk book that you were going to see export controls it's just not -- >> would or would not? >> we had the china dynamic, but

if you look at a broader, you know, policy moment here for this stock, it's not what i think is in the price. i think what's been questioned about the price is the growth, and the delta on the growth, which has been slowing, but still really impressive, and that the multiple still makes it a lot more attractive than other big megacap semis. and in that context, i like it i think you have to sort through this >> yeah, one of the most important things for this name happened earlier this week jensen huang at ces, he takes the stage monday night, everybody wants a piece of what he's got to say, and it wasn't enough the stock was down 6.25% yesterday. the reversal today, while it closed flat. and this news tonight, i mean, i don't think it's particularly interesting. what i think is most interesting is not just the china ordering that we've seen and what these curbs might be, it also goes back to the concentration. you know, four of those companies, microsoft, google, amazon, and meta, they make up 40% of their order book. so, if we're going to see a slowdown in just demand, that's why the capex numbers when we get them on earnings over the next few weeks is going to be

really important i think there are better places to play this theme than nvidia right now. coming up, a quantum leap lower. quantum computing stocks plummeting when the tech will be up and running and if the stocks are still investable. and "fast money's" 18th anniversary continues with a very special guest joining us later this hour. and keep this inits first iphone day after our debut. netflix announce its plans for a streaming service. it was still delivering dvds and fowere singing "irreplaceable" by beyonce and how much has changed much more "fast money" in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. ♪♪ only servicenow connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. pfft ... every corner? every corner, nick. ow! so kate in hr ...

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dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. excuse me, five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five. it's five years of reliable gig speed internet. five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited ti high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. welcome back to "fast money. wildfires raging across southern california with more than 80,000 people under evacuation orders in the los angeles area. the palisades fire exploding to over 15,000 acres, as of 4:30 p.m. eastern time. two deaths confirmed

officials say the fast-moving fires are 0% contained with strong winds fanning the flames and the blaze is having an impact beyond immediate danger zones. nearly 300,000 customers without power as of this morning and air quality at dangerous levels across l.a at least 1,000 structures have been destroyed and it could be a long road ahead for cleanup and reconstruction for more on the fires and the impact they'll have on the insurance industry, let's bring in cnbc's contessa brewer. >> melissa, even with the fires burning right now, we're getting very early damage estimates from jpmorgan analysts, putting insured losses at about $10 billion. but am best says it's just too early to define the damage, but that high value of lost real estate will generate large economic losses. of course, a lot of homeowners policies were canceled over the past couple years, and that meant a surge of new policies for the fair plan, the last resort insurer in california 225% growth over two years,

including both residential dwellings and commercial properties pacific palisades is in a concentrated area of exposure for the fair plan and warned last year that its financial stability is at risk if it can't pay. and then all the insurers would have to chip in, that's a real threat, that's why some of the smaller insurers have actually left the state state farm has the most market share, 8 million policies in california, farmers a close second travelers, allstate, chubb and usaa in the top ten. chubb began managing down its exposure in the regulated market, where rates have to be approved instead, it writes property insurance for high net worth individuals. those are not subject to approval aig and pure also offer the high end policies and what we're seeing here, look, these are high end properties in pacific palisades, malibu and the like, so, these are the companies that could actually see some impact

from these fires, melissa. >> so, already prior to these fires, i mean, there were the 2017-2018 fires and that really put this whole area into an insurance crisis of sorts, in terms of, you know, insurers pulling out, facing huge losses. how does this sort of -- if all the insurers are on the hook for fair plan, i mean, even if they pulled out, then how do analysts sort of handicap that? >> i think number one, the state has to handicap it first, because again, all of these people are coming in what the state has said is, we recognize that there's a problem. they have not approved the rate hikes that the insurers have asked for, and this has been years in the making, so, that has started to change. but in -- in return for those rate hikes, the state is expecting these insurers to agree to accept like 85% of the policies or the homeowners that apply for wildfire coverage. they're doing a tit for tat in this case. they've met the metrics for the sustainable insurance plan by the end of 2024 the question is, is it going to

throw the plans to sort of bring this market into a healthier scenario will this fire now disrupt all of that and send these insurers running, which then puts california back at the beginning again of trying to figure out a crisis >> all right, contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. terrible situation terrible for the people of california how do we think about what is going on there um -- from this e part or from -- >> conomic loss? >> the economic loss, but also, i think about -- so, as she said, many companies had already pulled out and wouldn't insure what does this do to property values, when you have these -- i mean, the palisades is a magnificent area, multimillion dollar homes if they can't get insurance, right, the property values have to go down a lot, and what does that do for california, do they -- property taxes are an important -- so, i mean, it's a vicious cycle, and i think that $10 billion loss number has to be so low.

coming up, a pulse check on the lending in the middle market our next guest says there's still strong growth in that space. more on that next. and the "fast money" 18th birthday celebration continues fun% when "fast money" first debuted, some of today's highest profile stocks weren't even public tesla, meta, uber, and snap, just to name a few you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. new report from private credit powerhouse showing middle market private companies posting strong growth in the first two months of q-4, giving investors a glimpse of what could be ahead for public companies this earnings season. for more, lawrence is here with us on set. the ceo of golub capital, and karen finerman's husband good to see you. >> very happy to be here congratulations on the 18th. >> 18th, yeah. and 18 years ago, your company was also not public along with tesla and snap and meta. >> correct we've had more steady earnings than they have, though >> tell us about what the index has shown about what we can

expect this earnings season? >> so, taking out of our portfolio actual results for real companies for october and november, ninth quarter in a row with solid revenue growth. sixth quarter in a row with margin expansion keep in mind, these are u.s. businesses, private equity bands, so, not a complete reflection for international, but one of the things that stands out is, this is the third quarter in a row of pretty good results from our consumer sector and if you remember, starting about mid '23, consumer spending started getting really soft. sticker shock from inflation, interest rates going up, reducing disposable income, burning off excess savings from covid stimulus, and folks, including the private equity industry, were worried about how long that would continue but you know, especially this quarter, after three in a row, really looks pretty strong and outside of consumer sectors tied to the home cycle, it's really great >> when you start to look at

what's happened in the last month, month and a half of the year, though, in terms of a rising dollar, rising rates, i'm just wondering, when you expect things like that to start surfacing, if at all, in some of the results. >> so, one of the things that always strikes me when i come to visit you, which is not often enough, is the distinction between what's happening in terms of revenue and earnings growth, which is what we focus on, and valuations, which is the large part of what you focus on. the strong dollar in terms of the consumer is a plus it's really not a minus, if a company's got big operations in asia or europe, the currency translation profits are not so great. but for the consumer, it's great. we've got low unemployment, high wage growth, we've got increases in job openings. the consumer's healthy in driving the economy right now. the dollar doesn't matter much except maybe to the extent energy prices are lower, which is a tailwind for the consumer >> thank you for being on,

sweetie, nice to have you. do you think that this sounds inflationary >> yes >> how inflationary do you think this is going to be? >> and do you address all questions at home with sweetie >> depends gone he's in trouble or not >> so not often. >> notes from the dog house. we're seeing relative to fedex peckations, stronger inflationary pressures chris waller came out with some thoughts on inflation still coming down. he and i are not seeing eye to eye on this. the fed recently raised its inflation expectations for '25 to 2.5, i'll be surprised if it doesn't have a three handle and i won't be surprised if it's 3.5% a lot of the fed measures are taking advantage of the gasoline price reductions, so, gas prices in q-4 down about 35 cents a gallon on average, end of period gas prices down 50 cents maybe that will continue, it's not the way i would bet, so, we're expecting inflation in the

threes, and i think, you know, if you look at where the futures are on fed funds versus where the fed dot plot is, and i think the futures are probably a little low, and they're way higher than the fed dot plot >> lawrence, 18 years ago, when we began this show, private credit, as a product, as an investable product, was also not really around. at least in the way it is today. talk about both the availability of access to private credit, what that's meant, also for credit spreads, currently. by the way, we're about as tight as we've been on high yield oas since going on -- not necessarily what you're investing in, but if you look at credit spreads, they're tight. we really haven't seen since before the big crisis. talk about the asset class as a place for investors to invest and the opportunity. >> sure. well, i think when one is investing in private credit, direct lending, which we specialize in, it's very hard to be a market timer. as a retail investor, going in and out of a bdc or a fund,

okay, you have the ability to pull the trigger and get in, get out. from our point of view, we make a loan, we get paid back five years later, most of the big institutional investors and private investors have to be choosing the asset class and choosing a manager there actually was, in bdc land, a couple of big public bdcs back 18 years ago, neither one of them exists anymore, it was american capital and alied capital, and they both blew up because of strategy shift. they were doing well in lending. they grew too fast to sustain the growth they didn't know how to own companies. i think every time there's been a cycle where fund-raising is a little easier, you know, many big investment managers, multistrategy investment managers, public gps, they raise money when they can, not necessarily because they should. in the middle market, spreads are medium down. and we'll see what happens in terms of deal volume picking up, private quity firms are very

excited about deal volume picking up way, way more excited about deregulation than they are worried about tariffs. >> lawrence, good to see you >> thank you >> very handsome man. coming up we're just minutes away from a big "fast money" birthday surprise. you won't want to miss that. and we've got a few years on bitcoin. the crypto-currency coming on the scene in 2009. back when one u.s. dollar was equal to 1,300 bitcoins. we know what's happened since then don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back a check on how markets closed the day the s&p up about a tenth of a per sent and the nasdaq seeing a small loss hershey down 2% after asking regulators for permission to buy more cocoa, as it grapples with global shortages and disney higher after announcing 157 million ad-supported monthly active users across its streaming platforms. that compares to 70 million ad-supported users for netflix. coming up, a major drop in quantum stocks, as jensen huang lays out when he thinks that technology will be up and running. the trade on the names, next. and the "fast money" 18th

anniversary just getting started. when we debuted back in 2007, toe by maguire was slinging his webs as spider-man topping the box office that year, shrek. one of guy's favorites and harry potter was in his fifth year after hogwarts. more reminiscing, right after this getting some help would be a great relief. from companions to helpers to caregivers. find all the senior care you need at care.com

welcome back to "fast money. quantum computing stocks getting crushed today after jensen huang said computers were still decades away from being useful d-wave, rigetti and others sinking more than 30%. the ceo of d-wave pushing back on those comments today. >> when it comes to d-wave, he's dead wrong we're not 30 years out we're not 15 years old we are today we are supporting businesses today with kwon tum quantum com. >> he said he would sit down with jensen to walk him through what he got wrong.

quantum computing at rigetti up 1,000% in the last three months. all of them getting a boost on the alphabet news on quantum computing. >> when valuations seemingly doesn't matter, people will bid things up to levels that don't make a whole lot of sense. then you hear something like the comments made that it's not going to be a thing for awhile, people get a semblance of normalcy i don't think that move to the downside is over >> you could make the case, in an ironic fashion, that maybe artificial intelligence is a ways off all the spending that we're working towards to obviously train these models and do these things that seem really wiz-bangy, maybe we don't realize that for five to ten years. you can make that comparison >> it's interesting, though, when google announced the breakthrough, we were sitting here, saying, why is all this market cap being afforded to google for something that is years, if not decades away >> and the reason is, i believe, is because first of all, google is undervalued there's an argument that sum of

the parts and different things, but it gives you a sense of what google's up to people don't understand some of the black box dynamics it just recognized intrinsic value and highlighted the fact that the stock is cheap. >> i agree on rigetti. yes, it's had an enormous drop, but it's back to where it was december 23rd, right and it was, you know, low single digits, mid single digits. >> when the last great yankee pitcher. >> no-hitter against the red sox on fourth of july. >> unsubscribe coming up, "fast money's" 18th birthday party continues where was big tech back in 2007? air bnb was just born, coming up, a special guest is going to join us more "fast money" in two

♪ all right, welcome to "fast money. we are now a daily show. we are on broadway i kid you not, we are live at the nasdaq market site here in times square everyone is here, and there this economy -- >> amazing that that was 18

years ago. today, "fast money" turns 18, the five of us have been part of the show for a long time guy was, as you saw, one of the originals. karen and tim, shortly after so much has changed since 200 7. our hair, hairlines, our lives, children have been born. children have graduated college. markets are a lot different. when the show launched, the biggest companies in the s&p were exxonmobil, ge, icrosoft, and citigroup. together, the top ten were worth $2.5 trillion combined today, the top ten names are worth more than $20 trillion apple back then had a market cap of less than $75 billion nvidia was about $12 billion meta and tesla were still years away from going public and take a look at where the major markets were the s&p, less than 1,500 the do about 12,000. the nasdaq still less than half of what it was during the peak of the dot com boom. and the yield on the ten-year treasury, just about where it is exactly right now.

so, guy, quite the milestone 18 years, you lived every minute of it. >> yeah. >> what is the biggest change? >> the biggest change that we've seen, obviously, is you coming in 16 years ago. march, will be 16 years. and, you know, i don't want to talk a lot, we have a great guest coming on, but you filled some incredibly large shoes, but you did it in such a way that, you know, you made the show your own, so, of all the changes, you coming onboard some 16 years ago, to me, tops the list, melms. >> very sweet. >> it is a team effort, every single night, day in, day out for sure it's all about the ensemble, and you guys, and your smarts and your -- all the laughs that we've had. but in terms of the markets, we've just outlined a bunch of changes. so, what do you think? biggest change >> well, you know, you look back at those companies and you think about the markets, 18 years ago, the oil and resources were strategic assets they were sovereign assets, the things that were most guarded. takeovers of resource companies that weren't allowed now it's chips data is the new oil. i think we're in a different

place. i think the retail investor and the sophistication of the people that have watched this show has gone through the roof. >> to me, early on in the show's history, the precipice of a financial disaster was just so enormous, right? the idea we see citi bank, bank of america up there, citi bank k to seven that idea, and that the rise of tech, the power, and how much money they make. it's extraordinary >> yeah, i just think market structure. i mean, that is the biggest difference especially somebody who came into the markets in the late '90s you had access, all that sort of stuff, and to me, listen, look at me, i come on here, i'm wrong a lot. and hopefully we do proper analysis, but it seems like the way and guy talks about passive investing all the time and market structure in general, i think that -- you can get rich slowly, too. you don't have to do it the "fast money" way >> we're here, dylan mentioned at the top, on broadway. broadcasting here for 18 years you never know who is going to

come by at the nasdaq market site crossroads of the world. welcome dylan radigan, the original anchor of "fast money," right here on-set. >> nice to see you guys. >> great to see you. >> in town -- >> swinging by >> i was going to get some weed, you know, times square >> that's the right way. >> smells good but -- anyway, nice to see you nice to see you. got a couple of things for you >> oh. >> i got a gift from italy >> oh, wow >> and a gift from new york for you. >> oh. >> there you go. congratulations. >> thank you, thank you. >> very nice to see you. thank you for letting me back in the building >> of course without dylan, there wouldn't have been a "fast money. >> dylan's got to get -- as he gets a seat, i'll say this >> guy, real quick >> the early days, people forget, 2006, you know, "fast money" was a segment on one of dylan's shows, "on the money," an eight-minute segment. you were an extraordinary person, what you've done, mel. dylan is equality extraordinary

and what he brought to the show. his vision for the show in late 2005, sort of paved the way, so, it is -- >> what's -- >> mindblowing >> you and your compliments, pal. calm down. >> take them >> get him some -- how do you work in this neighborhood? you walk, you don't have to even buy it just walk into times square -- >> it wafts. >> the general air quality has changed since i was last year. >> people may not know, some people may know you, you are now global editor for casey trade. >> i am. >> people have seen you -- >> yeah, every wednesday, we go at 2:00 p.m. eastern and every afternoon at 4:00 with the "overtime" boys. >> still participate in the conversation now i have to trade all the time when you hosted this show, it was illegal to trade >> right >> i don't know if they changed that rule. but at tastytrade, it's a requirement. >> what's changed in the past 18 years? >> accessibility i would say that the biggest thing is just the -- obviously liquidity, but the technology

and information, there are things that karen or guy or dan or tim could do 18 years ago that i couldn't do at home in milan, where i live now, i couldn't be on a laptop, i couldn't be, you know, a $2,000 account in wherever nowhere. and be able to put on some sort of a -- of a volatility trade on a spread that has enough liquidity, i mean, spreads were too wide >> yeah. >> commissions were too high and so, even if you could imagine the strategy, you couldn't up mrement it in a profitable way >> let's talk about this show. because you had a vision for this, again, in '05. all sort of came together in '06. are you surprised that now 18 years later, we're still sort of doing our thing here >> of course it's not personal. i don't mean it -- >> gee, thanks >>is

extremely unusual. extremely remarkable and an incredible compliment to all of you, not just melissa, obviously, but also, i think, all of the traders, and production and the production team. there's a lot of -- the fact that this has done at this level for this long is a career highlight for everyone involved. >> i want to also talk about your new venture, which is very interesting, because it's not related. >> you have to open your gift. >> that would be the segue all right. let's do that. >> and we can talk about the venture while you open the gift. >> it's shoes. >> well, it's other -- >> it's italian luxury goods sneakers, silk, cashmere, and japanese denim >> what's the difference from american denim >> i brought for you a pair of our -- >> sorry >> signature product, which is called the white goat. >> oh. >> and it is italian goat leather, handstitched by me. >> by you?

>> no, you do not. >> i go to venice myself every day and i get out a needle and thread well, first, i have to go -- >> you ride in a rickshaw? >> the truth is, first i have to go goat hunting. without a goal, what can i even get done >> check out >> no, it is not made by me, it is made by incredibly talented italian artisans in venice and i would argue it will be the softest shoe you'll ever wear. >> guy, they might make these in your size. >> i would hope. >> you have to kill a few goats. >> at this point, probably have 100 products we're premiering our first big collection at fashion week next month. >> wow >> in milan. and it's just a nice way to do something beautiful. the thing with having -- i moved to italy in 2018 to help make this make some sense living in milan and being accepted into the italian culture in the way that i have been has been the greatest privilege of my life >> right >> and so, to be able to bring some of my new york to the italian way of being, sometimes,

you know, it gets -- >> it's a lot. >> might get a little hot. but more good than bad and to bring their beauty together with some of my focus and passion has been a great experience. >> dylan, thank you. come by sooner than 18 years >> congratulations >> up next, final tradeservi every corner, nick. ow! so kate in hr ... hey kate. can focus on people, not process. oh actually, i have a question ... keep up, nick. do you have to be sick to take a sick day? patty in it is using ai agents to deal with the small stuff, so she can work on the big stuff. agents like secret agents? secret agents i control. with your mind? you know ... i played a seet agent once. - we know. - oh gosh ... i liked it. over here, ai gives tina the info she needs to get the job done. nick, what did we say about touching? no touching. good. ai helps jim solve customer problems

before they're problems. for reals? for reals. for reals. servicenow is the only platform that connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. oh, so we all work better, together! my work here is done. excuse me, which way ba? uh, follow him.

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your loved ones are getting older, and they need your support. care.com is here to help. it's an easy way to find background-checked senior caregivers in your area. and some piece of mind. see why millions of families have trusted care. go to care.com now before we get to finals, we thanks levain bakery for sending cookies, 18 cookies, look at them final trade. let's go around the horn karen? >> i just want to say thank you, it's been a privilege to be part of this, you and dylan, thank you to susan and mary and john,

for finding me and allowing me to be here >> tim >> it's 18 years of an honor doing this every night taiwan semi. >> dan >> interesting announcement from ebay and meta. >> og. guy? >> great seeing d.r., great seeing you together. sn, melms. >> thank disney >> thank you for watching for 18 years. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but to explain call me. we focus on the ten-year treasury we focus on the fed.