is to write what you know." very good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro. here are your headlines. investor attention to the on bond market with the focus of concern and yields inch higher in early trade, but manage to keep away from thursday's peak. wall street returns to trade

with futures pointing lower ahead of the december payroll print with the forecast of a slowing in job growth. airbus shares fly to the top of the cac 40 after the planemaker delivers 776 jets in 2024 just missing expectations, but maintaining its lead over the rival boeing. and elon musk repeats his support for the german far right afd in the conversation with the party leader on x once again raising concerns of the world's richest man meddling in politics. >> i want to be very clear about that. only afd can save germany. end of story. very good morning. we start today's show looking at

the action across european markets with the equity space. we have the stoxx 600 at the moment below the flat line. yesterday, however, we did finish the day positive about .40%. however, though, the main market narrative is still around the higher bond yields and investors still concerned, really, about the outlook here perhaps seeing sticker inflation going forward. let me show you how the different bourses are showing this friday morning. starting with the ftse 100, we are marginally below the flat line. overall, when you think about the bourses across the european continent, we are positive with more positive gains up in france with the cac 40 up .20%. it's friday. always a good moment to look at the performance for european equities. look at these numbers. i'm fascinated by them. look at it. the dax week to date up by more than 2%. overin italy, the main market is

finishing the week up more than 3.7% at this rate. let's see how we'll finish ultimately by the end of today. nonetheless, these are very positive gains for the week where markets have been concerned, indeed, about the outlook for inflation going forward whether perhaps we might see higher rates for longer. nonetheless, time now to get a check also on the different sectors and understand what are some of the corporate ynamics this morning. we have media up .50%. autos up a similar level too. and let me take you to the important market narratives. utilities is almost down .90% at the moment. retail is moving quite low at the moment. continuing that pressure that we have witnessed already on thursday despite some positive numbers from some of the

corporates in this space. it is the outlook with the concerns of inflation that has been impacting this sector in particular as well. i've been mentioning it already. time now to get a check on the european bonds as well. what a week it has been. at the moment, looking at the benchmark yield on the ten-year bund. bund. we continue to move higher at 2.56%. a strong notice on the uk market, too. at the moment, the yield on the ten-year gilt is also moving higher at 4.839%. this is a very important one to keep monitoring particularly after we saw it hitting a high earlier this week trading at the highest level since 2008. let me take you as well to the bond market over in the united states because that's where the initial pressure actually started. we have the ten-year yield on

the treasury also tracking higher at 4.696%. we are, indeed, far from the highest level ever of 5.02%. nonetheless, we have been moving closer to that level. so, one of the guests yesterday was actually suggesting that we could be testing in the very near future the 5% level. we shall find out. in the meantime, also pressures in terms of the currency market. particularly, though, i have to take you to the sterling if we can share the performance there to the euro/dollar, but sterling/dollar is where i want to focus. we have seen sterling at the moment moving lower against the greenback easing some of the losses we had witnessed earlier this week. nonetheless, we continue to see pressure here for the british pound. once again, still a lot of question marks if the government or the bank of england are going to be addressing any of the recent developments we have

witnessed in the uk market. now, time now to get a check also on u.s. futures. this is an important one because u.s. equity were closed yesterday. at the moment, the suggestion of a lower start to the trading day on wall street as investors are watching out for today's job report which is wildly expected to show a mixed view of the u.s. labor market. december non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 155,000, weaker than the november print of 227,000, but keeping with the four-month average. meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. so let's discuss all of this with joe, chief economist at rms. joe, first, i want to get your thoughts on the payroll figure

we will get later today. it seems investors are basically waiting for that figure to wait to do with their portfolios. >> good morning. thank you for having me on. i'm waiting for a total of 180,000 on the month. risk is skewed to the upside of a stronger print. if you are out there managing portfolios this morning, you are probably thinking if the job market comes in a bit hot, that means yields are likely to rise so you could simultaneously see a test of 4.7 or 4.75 and equity markets were likely selloff on that. we are expecting a 4.2% unemployment. an average hourly wage gains of 0.3% on the month which translates of 4% year over year gains. you have a solid to strong u.s. labor market even as it slowed a bit from 227,000. >> joe, it seems, no doubt, there's a lot of importance and

meaning around today's jobs report. ultimately, can you take the figure at face value given the seasonality the december figure includes? >> that's why there's upside risk. if you're investing in the u.s. economy, what you are seeing is a labor market that's very strong. it only needs to add 100 to 150,000 a month to keep the employment sector stable. that's why you see this really strong gain, but we're going to continue to see the unemployment rate right around 4.2%. what you're seeing, though, is an economy that's pulling away from the rest of the world not just in terms of growth, but importantly productivity. that's the magical elixir in the u.s. economy. that's why inflation is sitting at 2% to 2.5 %.

that is why we see the strong job gains and there are more jobs available than people looking for them. that's that tight labor market that will continue to support upward pressure in overall needs. >> i would also like to understand what is the level today that could actually test the patience within the investment community. i was reading some economists suggesting if we perhaps see a number below 150,000 later today, that is the only way where we could actually see the pressure in the bond yields actually easing. where do you think that equilibrium actually lies? >> in terms of global yields. i don't see that. the u.s. economy is humming. we had a strong holiday shopping season. demand for workers continues to be stout. my real concern is the 5% level

that you were talking about. the last time the u.s. economy reached that 5% level, it caused what we call a mini banking crisis in the united states. local and regional banks that hold a large portfolio of commercial real estate assets and in some cases non-performing, that caused the government to step in for those banks. that was the march 2023 incident. we are not there yet. it is a concern. when you look around the world, what did you see overnight? people's bank of china is slowing if not outright stopping its outright bond purchases as it worries about the depreciating yen and inflation. why? capital outflows to the united states and get this, many viewers may not understand this. capital outflows through 2024 were more than the next 12

economies combined. things are moving quickly. investors are pricing in inflation around the world and in the uk and economic stagnation across the european continent. >> i would like to know where you price in the changes from the federal reserve. recently, investors have become a little bit more negative about whether we are actually going to see them cutting twice this year. the chances are a little bit below the 50 basis point cut for the year. what are you pricing in here and ultimately, with the latest comment from fed minutes suggesting they are concerned about inflationary pressures, is it more likely the fed is going to be in a very difficult position to cut this year? >> well, your forecast for 2025 had 50 basis priced in. we are very comfortable where we're at. we just don't see that happening

any time soon. we're thinking second half of the year at best. the u.s. economy is humming along. we have the turn of the year dynamics where you're going to see a creeping upward of inflation because at the turn of the year, service prices nd to go up, rents tend to go up. other prices rise. investors are rightly concerned about the direction of inflation. i want to be clear here what we're really talking about is above or below 2.5%. we're not talking about the problems we had in the recent past. we're probably a little bit more realistic about the u.s. economy is than say your average bond investor at the current time. >> let's see what the fed will end up doing. in the meantime, we appreciate your thoughts this morning. joe at rsm u.s. our u.s. colleagues will speak to austan goolsbee later today.

tune in later at 15:00 gmt. coming up on the show, we will look at the 30-year gilt market after prices not seen since 1998. stay with us. wel veetlsft ts break.ai aerhi z's bakery is looking to add a pizza oven,

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welcome back to the show. now, let's take a look at the china central bank. they have suspended treasury bond buying pushes yields higher. the pboc is pushing this for the move. for more, check out cnbc.com. now the uk chancellor rachel reeves and bank governor andrew

bailey will continue with the trip to china although there were talks about cancelling about the pressure of gilts. sam vadas filed this report. >> reporter: rachel reeves trip to china is described as a curious time as beijing welcomes the push for reengagement and there are questions if things will change particularly with the spy allegations which beijing denies. mean point out it comes at a time when both economies are facing challenges. in china, officials are desperate for more foreign investment. at the same time, they are skeptical with western trading partners like the u.s. and eu given tariffs and export controls. what is interesting is there is

extensive coverage in british media, few details in china. there's been no shortage of state media commentary since starmer took office indicating an independent plan to boost trade with china. the policy is basically similar to the u.s. approach. trading china like a competitor and interfering in internal affairs, while on the other hand, hopeful it can capitalize on economic opportunities it offers which beijing reckons fuels uncertainty over the future of this relationship. in singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. in our moment of the week, we are highlighting the recent rise in bond yields. let's recap what happened. in the u.s., we had the yield on the ten-year treasury at its highest since april and therefore inching closer to its highest level ever. look at the chart. we are not far from the 5.02%

seen since october of 200. the ten-year gilt traded highest since 2008. why? data has investors concerned that pressures are here to stay with concerns of further impacts from president-elect donald trump's policies. this matters for your investments. higher bond yields mean higher borrowing costs. for businesses getting a loan could get harder or more expensive. impact on pensions and especially for owners of a lot of government debt and relying on income from bonds means higher rates could also be eating into your purchasing power. james carter laid out the drivers of the recent market turmoil. >> it's an incredible move. it's a move driven by not only a

change in september and expectations for inflation, particularly in the u.s. post trump and in the uk post budget and potential for upside disappoint from inflation. more so, it's a reaction to the budget and fiscal headroom eroded in the past couple weeks and buyers' revolt in the bond market. we are no longer thinking about the vigilantes. >> the current moves are not a panicked situation. >> it is helpful. we're in a turbulent time many thanks to president-elect trump and we're seeing, you know, very substantial move in bond yields in many countries, not just the uk. there is a problem for the uk, which is an emergency panic situation, but the fact they realized britain is stuck in the slow growth trap and we've been

there for many years since the financial crisis, then brexit and covid and ukraine war. we're stuck with relatively high inflation and very slow growth. the markets are marking the uk down. this is not a panicked situation. this is not a crisis of the old style balance of payment/sell off situation. >> simon french is joining us now. simon, good morning. good to see you. at a time when the uk market is so, so, interesting, it seems like everything is happening from the currency space to the bond market. first and foremost, i would like to understand your thoughts the reasons behind this increase in gilt yields recently. there seems to be two school of thoughts. some suggest this is a problem coming from the outside and not a problem of our finances. others say this is a pronounced problem with the budget. where do you stand?

>> it is both honestly. i would say the bigger driver here are global factors and strong u.s. economic data and fears of inauguration and the first 100 days of the trump policies and that pushing up treasury yields and gilts moving in tandem. it isn't solely those factors. there is an element of the uk overlay. the element of that is what he was talking about in that package which is the low growth dynamic and slow growth since the momentum in the budget in october and election in july. if you are looking at it. >> it is making the lives in number 11 and number 10 a lot harder. explain to us the choices for chancellor reeves to lead to economic growth. she has been very focused on

supporting growth, but where is it? >> flat lining, honestly, is where the latest data is and the forward indicators of growth from the con con federation of british industry to turn into q1. the chancellor laid out the stall in the second half of the year of the spending year concludes in june a lot of spending from the state sector. the larger part is the private sector. they are looking at the national insurance in april. i don't think at this stage the chancellor is thinking about reversing that or doubling down on tax increases. what i hear in the last few days is the treasury are looking at additional spending cuts at departmental level to try to hit those self imposed fiscal rules

where the rise in gilt yields which is about 100 basis points in the curve knocks out the headroom it faced in october. >> it is a very difficult position when you think about what they are trying to do. they cornered themselves by saying they will respect their own fiscal targets. they don't want to come up with more tax increases. in the medium term, do you think the tax increases are inevitable? >> no, i don't actually. the uk is going on this parliament on this plan to 38 per pound. after the financial crisis, it was 32 per pound. the last budget was the final part after 14 years of steady tax increases. i think what we're seeing is fatigue from uk business on the cost of deploying capital. where i think chancellor reeves and people in the press talking about this is asking cabinet ministers to look again in the

departments or where they're blocking growth. slowing growth. what i hear again and again from business leaders is plenty of an attractive investment opportunities in the uk. it costs a lot of money to get the shovels in the ground and data centers built and businesses created. if we can shorten that time, actually, the uk is an attractive investment opportunity. you have to get out of the way of business doing that. >> i can't help but thinking of the messages we obtained from uk businesses. everyone is really upset they are faced with national insurance contributions when you think about the position for businesses here. are they actually at a moment when they feel they can invest here and actually support the government in these growth efforts? >> yes, they do, but do they rightly balk at the idea it is 20 billion pounds of additional cost of payroll taxes? yes, of course, they do.

if i'm talking on behalf of the narrow perspective of business, this is a narrow outcome for me. this is the other side of the ledger. the 20 pounds is spent in the environment and infrastructure. we had conversations over recent years the fact that the uk over 20 or 30 years has under invested in capital stock and investment. this is part of the rebalancing. in any redistribution, you have the losers which are private businesses paying payroll taxes and the winners which is public sector driven construction and that activity. >> it is hard to keep everyone happy. tell us how you are looking at this trip to china this weekend because it comes at a time we see the pressure in the bond market, but ultimately, do you think these efforts in establishing stronger ties with china or the eu will help driving growth in this country?

>> this is a fascinating question. not the least the uk's fifth biggest trading partner is china. not the largest, but one of the top players. actually, if you look at what is going on globally with a risk of the hawkish white house toward china and risk of multilateral tariffs. if the chinese response is to weaken currency and flood the market with cheaper exports, uk could take advantage of that by having quite cheap imports into its economy and suppressing the inflationary fears. one of the questions many fixed income currency analysts are looking at is stubborn uk inflation. one advantage of china if there is a more dynamic relationship is if there is offset stubborn sticky internal inflation. that's potentially quite a policy mix. that might call attention to the

trade representatives and annoy china hawks in the uk. when you are looking at the economic standpoint, this is an opportunity for the uk. >> let's see what we will deliver after the trip. simon french. coming up on the show, airbus deliveries come in just shy of the planemaker target for the year. we'll break down the numbers after this break. and elon musk continues support for the afd hosting a live stream with the candidate on x. we'll bring you the details after this break. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our

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welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro. here are your headlines. investor attention to the bond market with the uk gilts a concern. the business secretary tells cnbc uk is under wider pressure. >> there is a problem for the uk which isn't an emergency panic situation, but the fact they realize britain is stuck in the slow growth trap. we've been there for many years since the financial crisis. wall street returns to trade today with the u.s. futures pointing modestly lower ahead of the december payroll print with the forecast slowing in job growth. and airbus shares move higher after the planemaker delivers 766 jets in 2024 just

missing expectations, but maintaining its lead over rival boeing. elon musk repeats his support for the afd after a conversation with the party leader on x raising concerns about the richest man in the world over politics. >> as i said, afd can only save germany. i want to be clear about that. only afd can save germany. end of story. time now to get a check of how we are moving across the equity space starting with the stoxx 600. at this stage, we continue to be marginally below the flat line. how far, though, if you step back and try to understand what's been happening this week across the equity space ahead of the open today, the stoxx 600 was on track to finish the week

up by 1.5%. so, we could still see the stoxx 600 posting gains for the week. let's see how this session will continue to fare throughout the rest of the day. let me also show you the different bourses to get a better idea of what's happening across the european continent. now we are looking at pressure for the cac 40. we are below the flat line at the moment. we were positive earlier in the session. however, all in all, when you think about the four major european bourses, there is a bit of a mixed picture. indeed, with investors trying to understand what to do amid the growing concerns around inflation. i want to take you to one of the big corporate stories this morning surrounding airbus. the company delivered 766 planes last year just shy of the annual target of around 770. now, more than the 735 it delivered back in 2023. the company is widely expected to retain its title as the

world's largest planemaker by deliveries for the sixth year in a row. charlotte has the latest on the deliveries. we are up more than 1%. investors are looking at the numbers and thinking they were just shy of the target which is an overall positive trend. >> that is what we heard from the ceo at airbus. so far, so quite good. they kind of reached their target with 766 delivers last year. so, the target was around 770. they got there. you remember that was an adjusted target that they put in the middle of last year because earlier in the year, they were hoping to deliver 800 planes, but the supply chain issue was still tricky. they had to downgrade the target there. they kind of met it. they said it is still very challenging on the supply chain. they did better than last year some things are getting a little bit better. 775 delivered in 2023.

we are well below the numbers before the pandemic. the record number in 2019 with 863 planes. we are far from that. they are working very much and increasing production there. it's still challenging. it is an interesting story with airbus. they have a backlog of 806 planes. they have the customers with wanting the airplanes. the problem is getting the planes out with the security s especially with the problems at boeing. they are well ahead of the competitor. 866 net orders there. demand is there, but getting the planes out there and they work with a ad of suppliers. they haven't given the target yet. they have to wait for the february numbers. they are on track for the target

in 2026. they want to announce 75 planes per month in 2026. they produce 60 at the moment for the narrow body jet a-320. they are on track to reach that target. they are on track for that. we see the shares in the green this morning. for 2025, we don't have the target. they say still challenging on the supply chain. things are getting better. with the trade tensions, they don't know if it is impacted whether or not once donald trump comes to the white house. they have assembly line in alabama. they have pieces for the line. they don't know if it was impacted for this. they are making plans in case. there are challenging out there. demand is there. more planes out there. overall, positive story for airbus. >> when you think demand is so strong and so high, it is a positive. they have so many risks. let's see what happens. in other corporate stories, ubisoft delayed the release of

the popular game in "assassin's creed." the french video game maker postponed the release three months in september as it battles delays and poor performance of other key titles. elsewhere, sainsbury held the profit forecast in line with kohn consensus at the midpoint of the range with like for like costs in the third quarter. elon musk has once again given his support for germany's far right or afd in the conversation with the party coleader weidel on the x platform. they covered the energy policy and war in ukraine and accusations of extremism within the party. the build up was dominated by fears of accusations of musk meddling in european politics as

germany prepares to go to the polls next month. during the conversation, musk said only afd can save germany ahead of the election. >> people are demanding change. they are be very clear and my recommendation for the people of germany is to do the same. if you are unhappy with the situation, you must vote for change. that is why i'm strongly recommending that people vote for afd. i want to be very clear about that. only afd can save germany. end of story. >> end of story. let's discuss this in detail with our next guest. senior fellow. great to have you on the show. first and foremost, give us your initial thoughts on the conversation that happened on x yesterday with elon musk and leader of the afd. how important is it and did it

start some sort of trend here in terms of seeing more of elon musk involved in european politics? i'm afraid unfortunately we have lost the connection. perhaps we will try to restore that later in the show because it is an important conversation to have at this stage. we are seeing this unprecedented level of conversations with elon musk and politicians and sitting leaders saying he shouldn't be doing this and should not get involved in european politics. let's see how this will develop because it is important in the context of the role that elon musk is about to have and is having in u.s. politics, too. he could also have a role here in terms of seeing how the transatlantic relationship is actually going to play out under trump 2.0. let's get a check on the connection and see if we can

reestablish the conversation. i hope you can hear me now. great. first and foremost, give us your thoughts between the conversation with elon musk and the afd leader. how important does it start a trend here? >> you know, german elections are normally very orderly and stayed. this election, this snap election, is proving to be quite extraordinary. the snap election or the german government collapsed after the u.s. election results came in last november and germans are quite surprised that the afd is receiving a prominent voice in the form of the richest man in the world who has obvious ties to the incoming trump administration and germany and the rest of europe is nervous about the incoming trump administration. it is quite, i would say, off putting for europeans to see especially european policymakers to see one of trump's biggest

supporters giving a boost to parties that are not necessarily pro europe and europe skeptic like the afd. >> i would also like to understand whether there is a potential here for meaningful influence in the german election. you heard different politicians like olof scholz that voters shouldn't pay attention to what elon musk is saying in this context. ultimately, do you think he can sway voters in germany to support afd? >> it is quite interesting you ask that, silvia, the polls have been quite static the last couple of weeks and i think we will start seeing movement because the holidays are now behind us and the campaigns are going to start in earnest. party officials met on the conservative side last weekend and the spd and afd and bsw are meeting this weekend. party platforms will be unveiled.

i think we're going to start seeing more movement now within the polls. for now, the conservatives are in the front, but the afd is solidly at 20% even though the likely chancellor candidate mertz vowed when he took over the party that he would have support of the afd and that just has not happened. i think in the next couple weeks, we will see more movement. according to the poll, three fourths of german voters are not necessarily amused by elon musk's involvement in recommending the afd as the party for change in germany. >> to perhaps to conclude the angle of elon musk getting involved in european politics, we have seen him make comments around germany and uk and has close ties to the prime minister

of italy. i would like to understand if this is the new norm when you think about european politics and ultimately what are the ramifications given elon musk's role in the upcoming administration? >> on the one hand, elon musk can be a good interlock for europeans and americans p.. he knows europe and germany. it is strange he is promoting the afd when a lot of the platform or ideology for the platform go against his business interests as well. certainly deregulation is important for elon musk and it is interesting to see the afd framed as the party that wants less state and more individual high riots because people are against migration and germany is facing demographic decline. it does need more investment and

innovation and it needs to be pro u.s. and pro security given the geopolitical challenges the country is facing. there is a little bit of a disconnect, but at the same time, we will see if elon musk proves to be a beneficial bridge for europe and the united states. >> i guess we'll find out. in the meantime, i would also like your thoughts on what is likely to happen under a new german government. the polls you highlighted suggest the cdu returning to the lead. questions where germany is going do go in terms of fiscal policy going forward. given the cdu role in the past in developing the current economic model germany has, do you think they can actually reform it? >> on the campaign trail, i doubt we'll see any of the conservatives talk about loosening the debt brake, but when coalition talks do occur and most likely the cdu will

invite coalition talks with the spd and greens to weigh who to form a coalition with, i think the debt brake is on the table because generals rmany is in ne next generation reform and investment and spending. all of these things need to be hashed out in order for germany to move forward and act as a leader within europe. >> right. we appreciate your time this morning. sudha, director of the berlin office and senior fellow. on to one of the developing stories. ten people have now been confirmed dead as wildfires continue to ravage southern california. 10,000 homes and structures have been destroyed and 180,000 people have been evacuated. the fires are expected to be the most costly in the u.s. history with estimates as high as $50 billion.

nbc's jennifer filed this report. >> reporter: the winds at red flag levels in southern california through friday at least, but the good news is the gusts have lowered in intensity by about half. that's given firefighters a chance to cut containment lines around the devastating fires. here an al tadina, for every fie or six, one is destroyed and looking like they were hit by a bomb. 10,000 acres have been burned. a total of four confirmed dead in this fire. a new fire this afternoon on the other side of the palisades fire. the kenneth fire in west hills started out as 50 acres and grew quickly to about 900 acres. in the palisades fire, we're hearing this mind-boggling number and i have to look at it to be sure.

5,316 buildings damaged or destroyed. add that to 5,000 estimated here in the altadena area and that is a lot of work to be done in the next few months. president biden said today that he is committed to paying for all of the firefighting efforts through the federal government so that california doesn't have to pick up the entire tab. this is unprecedented for 180 days, 100% of this is covered. he is also sending c-130 tankers, about six of them, to tackle these fires because the red-flag conditions are being extended and expected to continue into next week as well. i'm jennifer bjorkland, nbc news. staying on this top you can, the world breaches 1.5 degrees celsius. it is the first time it exceeded

the paris accord threshold. the data comes as u.s. president-elect donald trump prepares to withdraw from the paris accord agreement for the second time. coming up on the show, the u.s. supreme court is set to hear tiktok's final plea against the blanket ban. we'll have details after this break.

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welcome back to the show. as we approach the end of the show, here are the four things to get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. u.s. equity opens for trade after the closure to honor former president jimmy carter. our u.s. colleagues will speak to the delta airlines ceo after

the carrier reports fourth quarter earnings later today. the president-elect donald trump is set to be sentenced in his new york hush money case. the judge indicated, however, trump will not face jail time. in the fate of tiktok in the u.s. is at stake with the hearing over whether a ban on the app is constitutional later today. speaking of which, the u.s. supreme court is set to hear arguments if tiktok should be banned in the country unless it separates from the chinese parent company bytedance. it is an implications for the millions of users and free speech as well. two cases are under consideration. one brought by bytedance and tiktok and one brought by content creators who use the apple. they say banning tiktok from app stores in u.s. means service providers bans free speech. the government says the ban is needed on the basis of national

security. let's discuss this in more detail with our next guest. founder of the geopolitical business. good to have you on the show. is there anything that tiktok can say today that could actually prevent the ban from taking place later this month? >> i don't think so in the eyes of the u.s. government and west in general, tiktok is viewed as an extension of the chinese government as chinese eyes and ears in western societies. that's the argument that bytedance is trying to poke holes in, but considering the state of u.s./china relations and considering the fears of china's footprint in the west, i think this is an uphill battle and bytedance is going to face tremendous hurdles in the last hours. >> i would also like to understand here what is the likelihood that things actually will be changed by the incoming

president. donald trump seemed to reversed his rhetoric around his upon tiktok. is there a scenario here where tiktok gets banned on the 19th and reversed and once again able to be used by users on the 20th of january? >> it's a very strange business calculation to be banned one day and potentially 24 or 48 hours later through bytedance reinstated. for biden, this is about legacy. he is looking at a tiktok ban as one of his final acts as president. for you trump, however, if the supreme court delays the ban or trump looks to repeal the ban, for trump, utes a come it's a cf two things. for trump, it is the security and meeting the desire of the voters gen z or trump protecting the u.s. homeland like surveillance and chinese

national security threats. the question is which one is a higher priority because it can only be one or the other, not both. >> i would also like to understand the other side of this equation because we have seen industry groups in it china saying american chips are not safe, also, there is a problem there, too. could we see further tensions with the u.s. and china as a result of what is happening in the tech space as well? >> it depends how strategic tiktok is to the chinese state. as a business, tiktok specifically bytedance, according to some estimates, valued at $300 billion, and also 60% of bytedance is owned by foreign global investors. if china views bytedance as a strategic asset, then china will retaliate in a major way. whether this is about phasing off access to person chips in

western china or the chinese supply chain, there are man possibilities. most importantly, china views tiktok less important because it's a usiness and more in terms of precedent. if the u.s. ends up banning tiktok or bytedance sells tiktok, think about the precedence this sets where chinese firms can be cut to size. that's why bytedance will not sell tiktok to the u.s. because it doesn't want to open the door to this for other chinese companies across the world in other markets. >> give us your thoughts on where we go from here. it seems the tech companies and big tech is getting more and more involved in geo whether it is the comments from elon musk in politics or what jeff bezos did before the election that united states. this week, meta changing their third-party factor rules.

where do we go from here? >> the u.s./china relationship seems to have no floor. the floor keeps going lower and lower. this is a relationship in free fall. if tiktok is banned, it will call another move for the relations. it shows a tech war beginning. this is no longer about 5g or chips. this is expanding into things like playing with the weights in a.i. system and wiring of a.i. with the biden administration or controlling the number of a.i. chips that can be exported to certain markets around the world. this is becoming a new kind of tech war and the end result is the global gets divided into different spheres of influence with different services and systems cannot operate because of the geopolitical origin. if you're a tech company, you're realizing more and more that

you're being dragged into geopolitics, not because of data or content moderation, but because of super powers swinging for global power. >> thank you for your time today. founder of the geopolitical business. before we let you go, a final check on european markets. how we are moving this friday morning. it seems we are getting a bit of a mixed session. we have the stoxx 600 marginally below the plat line at the moment and investors trying to understand thousand position portfolios amid growing concerns around inflation. a final look on global yields because that has been the market narrative this week no doubt. we are looking at higher yields across the board. let's see what will happen. however, that is t for today's show. i'm silvia amaro. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. has no idea she's sitta goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or

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it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5." stock futures enter pressure to cap off a rough week for wall street. a driver today is the december jobs report and what it could mean for interest rates. the reason behind donald trump's fixation and the possible outcomes. and a.i. spending is boosting the