and the december employment report. you forgot about that. it's friday, january 10th. still don't know about jobs in december. it's 2025. i keep telling myself that. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. as joe mentioned, it is a jobs friday and we are awaiting that number just two and a half hours from now. it's pretty wide expectations about what that number might be. i think the range is anywhere from 120,000 up to 268,000. so there's some big guesses as to what that might be and obviously has a big impact on what the federal reserve will do from there. dow futures this morning are indicated off by just over 50 points. the s&p futures down by 1, the nasdaq indicated off by close to

40 points. nasdaq is on track for a second weekly loss, i think the dow is on track for maybe five out of six weeks in a row of losses. we will keep an eye on that and a the treasury market. right now 10 year edging 4.67%. bitcoin right now is trading just above 95,186. now to the wildfires around los angeles, let's talk about what's going on. at the continue to spread. yesterday ten people now have died and evacuation orders have expanded to a total of 180,000 people. a new brush fire in the woodland hills yesterday, that prompted a new round of evacuation orders. biden saying federal government would cover 100% of the costs of recovery for the first 180 days. would pay for first responder salaries, debris and hazardous material removal and temporary

shelters. jpmorgan estimated insured losses from this week's fires may see $20 billion which would make it the cost least blaze in u.s. history. a live report from the front lines in l.a. in just a few minutes. that $20 billion number a lot lower than a couple of others and obviously that's the insured losses we're talking about. there are now estimates we are talking 60, 70 plus billion dollars. >> they all left. they continue to leave. let's talk about something else. this is, you know, a business story involving tiktok. the u.s. supreme court is going to hear oral arguments today that could decide the future, near-term future, of tiktok. a ban is currently scheduled to take effect on january 19th. attorneys for each side will present their case all on whether the ban is constitutional. ahead of today's hearing businessman frank mccourt,

internet advocacy group project liberty announced that it has submitted a proposal to buy tiktok from bytedance the chinese parent. the proposal said it would restructure the app to exist on an american-owned platform and prioritize users' digital safety. terms of that offer, though, were not disclosed yet at this point. and also the supreme court denying president-elect trump's emergency bid to halt his criminal sentencing in new york today. that sentencing is scheduled for this morning. trump was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal. the judge has indicated that he will impose what he called an unconditional discharge which is a lenient alternative to jail or probation. trump plans to attend the hearing virtually. he had argued that being sentenced ten days before his inauguration would distract from the presidential transition. a five-justice majority in the supreme court found that the burden in their words is relatively insubstantial and

noted that trump could still challenge his conviction in the ordinary course on appeal. incoming president trump also talking about saying that he respected the court's opinion on that and would listen to it. >> some people said now he can appeal t. he had to wait for this until he could appeal. hearing both sides of it. he's already -- this allows critics to call him the first felon that was convicted and sentenced, but people are already calling him that, i don't know if it really matters at this point, calling him that for -- >> it's important from the broader issue of the supreme court and the decision that it made. would that -- >> i asked my son is roberts and barrett -- >> amy cohen barrett. >> acb, yeah, were both in the majority. cnbc is confirming a report that the senate finance

committee planned to hold a hearing for trump's pick for scott bessent. they would set up an executive session which lawmakers could advance his nomination to a confirmation vote by the full senate shortly after trump takes office. so one of the sort of first chess pieces of the administration getting put in place there. pennsylvania democratic senator john fetterman saying he plans to meet with president-elect trump at mar-a-lago. he said he doesn't have a specific message delivered to trump and doesn't know what message trump plans to convey to him but said there are several issues including china, israel and the border in which they can work together. fetterman says he plans to support some of trump's cabinet nominees and is open to hearing from all of them. some shifting winds. >> he's been shifting for a while. >> he's been shifting for a while she has. a lot of his sound bites from different cable networks where he says things like, if someone is here illegally and is

committing crimes, who would not want that person -- so he's said what seemed like kind of not crazy things, but people embrace that. some news on the transition from the mag 7 to the maga 7 or there may be more than seven at this point. more major companies are donating president trump's inauguration fund. microsoft, alphabet's google, now adobe each donating a million dollars. this doesn't necessarily -- i'm kidding, this is a long tradition that companies support the inauguration of the u.s. president. >> not always. >> but we were joking a little bit. they don't always, but we were joking -- >> not the mag 7. >> the mag 7 become the maga 7. >> tech companies have generally stayed out of this. now they've gotten more involved. >> certainly stayed out of it in '16. >> they weren't doing inaugurations for biden, they weren't doing inaugurations for obama. >> they liked being on the west

coast and away from d.c. >> they were not part of this. >> well, they better be now. tech giants including amazon and meta and notable ceosincluding tim cook and sam altman. republican congressman dusty johnson introduce add bill that would authorize the purchase of the panama canal. we've been having lots of conversations about what's going on between panama and greenland and canada, this may be the first one on the list. the lawmaker said china's interest and presence around the canal is a cause for concern and backed president trump's call to consider repurchasing it. the bill would authorize the president and secretary of state to initiate and conduct negotiations with panama. we're going to talk a lot more about president-elect trump's expansion proposals throughout the day on cnbc. hard to know, though. this is just a -- this would just give permission effectively to go to negotiations not necessarily an amount -- it's not a bag of money saying, go. >> make them an offer they can't

refuse. i'll make them an offer -- you've seen that. >> the more you hear about these issues the more you kind of understand, particularly with greenland. i was not familiar with -- >> i would love to buy -- i want to buy greenland. i do. >> 53,000 people live there. >> 53,000 times a million is like what we gave ukraine last month. >> the issues are when you hear -- >> not quite, but -- >> -- other countries like russia wanting to get involved with playing a major role there. this is a changing risk board. >> i thought about it. it's a noble endeavor to try to stop putin and there is a domino theory and a lot of concerns about poland and what's next. i understand all of that. so it's hard -- you can't really compare the two things, but then again given the future that -- you know, between the three major super powers, and russia is not a super power but china certainly is and the united states is, and with what's at

stake, it's not totally insane for -- for u.s. security in this point to think about -- to think about greenland. do you not want to buy it for sure? >> the difference is negotiating or just taking it. >> i think that's the issue. and when you do this -- >> no, that was marlon brando. >> i know. but that's my point. anytime there's any form of intimidation to get something, if it's just -- if it's just a negotiation -- >> what about economic. >> or let us help you out because we're already helping you from a securities perspective. >> look, my view is the second we get into a thing where there's some form of economic intimidation, coercion or anything else -- >> so you would -- >> -- to do that -- >> you would take economic coercion off the table? >> i might because i think all of a sudden it changes the dynamic for every other country in the world. >> they already do it. >> it raises the questions of whether this will be long term or whether you will wind up in a situation like jimmy carter where they said, yeah, we have to hand it over because

otherwise we will have to send troops there to do it. if you are doing it in a sense of partnership it seems like a long lasting partnership. >> i don't want to be naive about the way the world works. >> i don't, either, but i think good will can go a long way. i would rather work out a partnership where they say we would rather have you than putin or china. >> we should set an example. the shining city on the hill but we shouldn't be patsies, either. >> i don't think we're being patsies with greenland. >> there's many times where we are in terms of trade and everything else, we're taken advantage of. >> yeah. >> that's why seven swing states and popular vote and the house all went one direction. i think there's just a general feeling that, you know, america first and we haven't always put ourselves first. you know, we're protecting the rest of the world. we provide security for the west rest of the world and for a while nato -- >> but now we're mixing issues. i agree with you on nato. >> this is all part of america

first, though, andrew and it's part of our -- of taking care of our own security. >> i would like to. >> you have an advantage going to the arctic. all the great rare earth elements. >> i'm not saying it's not a terrible idea to make some kind of deal if you could. >> right. >> the question is how you're making those deals because how you make that deal is how everything else is going to happen in the future. >> so there's -- you remember in panama, i mean, it's not -- it probably wouldn't -- you've heard what they're saying, over my dead body, things like that. so it's not going -- people aren't just to be smiling at each other while this happens you may need to play hard ball. if it's coercion, if it's purely economic that doesn't seem like it's that untoward and against our principles. >> is it a stick or is it a carrot? >> right. >> right. coming up, expectations for today's december jobs data that's up next. plus the latest on the california wildfires.

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>> reporter: hey, becky, good morning to you. the latest is right now the law enforcement presence that has been brought into these evacuation zones because of the concerns of looting and people getting past the barricades. they have added additional patrol vehicles like the one you see here, also the california national guard has been deployed to these zones. we have a few that are in the hummer and you have one that's standing guard. this is going to help keep the people that do not need to be in these areas out. here in altadena where the fire has destroyed some 13,000 plus acres fire officials are hoping to get a handle on the fire. there hasn't been much -- well, i can't say there hasn't been much growth but they are hoping there won't be as much growth today but obviously there is still an issue with the santa ana winds. right now there are ten fatality reports that the medical examiner will be investigating, some of those remains that they've heard of they haven't

even had a chance to go into those locations because there's a safety concern and because of the firefighting efforts. so they hope to get to those areas and they say it could take a minute to identify some of those victims, some of the ten people that have been reported dead in these cases because of the fire and some people may not be able to -- some people may not be identifiable even with fingerprints. becky? >> dana, we had heard that that pal said fire is still only 6% contained at this point. i heard another one of the fires was about 35% contained, but you mentioned the winds. do you know the latest forecast, what they are talking about there on the ground? how long they're anticipating these winds may blow? >> reporter: yeah, so they anticipate that these santa ana winds could last for the red flag warning is in effect until today. i believe this evening. but that could get downgraded. we are not experiencing the wind gusts that we felt, you know, some 48 hours ago and our

photographer is planning up to the trees. this is kind of how calm the winds are now, which is going to be a major help for firefighters, but they are also reminding people to not put up groans in the air. they actually had one that struck a firefighting aircraft, that aircraft has now been grounded they can't use it and that impedes their firefighting efforts. they are reminding people to not send up those drones, you can be fined $75,000 and basically 12 months in prison. >> yesterday when we saw you dana, you had the mask on. i know there was very heavy smoke. what's the air quality there right now? >> reporter: air quality is still a major concern because we are out of that evacuation zone because we were standing next to homes that had burned to the ground and officials have warned about the toxicity in those soils and because of the smoke a lot of us were wearing respirators. we are in an area where it is still smoky so we do have our n95 masks and we are putting them on in between breaks, we're sitting in our vehicles.

so air quality is still a major concern. you have schools across the county that are closed because of the air quality. so if anyone is in the area they remind people to bring the mask. we've seen several residents that made their way through this evacuation zone, digging through the rubble. we even handed some people these masks because, you know, a lot of people they have never dealt with this before, they are not prepared, they have nothing left. if you are digging through the rubble or just in the area, this is definitely going to come in handy. becky? >> dana, thank you so much. nbc's dana griffin, thank you for joining us and bringing us these updates and showing us what it's like there on the ground. time now for the squawk planner. a few notable earnings reports, we will hear from delta airlines at about 6:30 and bring you an exclusive interview with ed bastian. also reporting constellation brands and walgreens. at 8:30 the december forecasters, expected a gain of

155,000 jobs, a step down -- not steep, that would take two e, -- from the surprising 227,000 increase in november, but roughly in line with the four-month average. the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%. joining us kevin cummins. i haven't seen other than the proposed deregulation maybe and some business-friendly policies, i haven't seen a lot to like overall just in recent weeks, six weeks, let's say. the market action, the tone from the fed, the increased worries about sticky inflation, as well as some worries about maybe a slowdown. none of it seems great to me, kevin. are you bullish? >> well, i think we're going to see a bit of a step down in economic growth this year relative to what we saw last year, but i have to say if you look at more recent data they've been continued resilience is

really the message. if you look at auto sales were even higher. next week of course we will get an update on the consumer retail sales for december and how the holiday shopping season, you know, performed and then we had pretty strong ism surveys this week. jobless claims are pretty close to calendar lows last year. so i think the economic backdrop, you know, going into '25, if anything it's probably a little bit better. i'm pretty optimistic on today's report. you know, as you mentioned job growth is expected to slow a little bit relative to what we saw in november, but, you know, if consensus is right and 155,000 jobs are added that's still pretty good and the expectation is the unemployment rate is basically at full employment, you know, a pretty stable level here. >> yeah. so at this point where do you see where we could have a problem? with inflation staying between

2.5, 3.5% or are we -- are we missing what could be a fairly significant slowdown in growth? >> i think the worry in the near term is more on the inflation side. i mean, as you mentioned, there was a little bit of slowing in the improvement that we saw through '23 and into '24, you know, inflation has gotten a little bit stickier over the past couple of months. i'm still pretty hopeful that it's going to continue to move down towards 2%, but, you know, there are risks. there's tariff proposals obviously that will have a new source of upward pressure on inflation that could emerge in the coming year. so we will have to see how things work out, but, you know, i'm still -- still hopeful that inflation continues to move lower. i mean, we've seen good productivity data and i think a lot of the momentum of, you know, the things that are likely

to come on the housing side as far as rent prices eventually will start seeping through more obviously into the core inflation measures that the fed watches pretty closely. >> do you think the s&p goes up this year, kevin, and is the leadership the same? >> well, that's a little bit out of my purview, i'm an economist so i don't have a necessarily view on where the equity market is going to go, but i'm pretty optimistic more recently on growth that i think, you know, from a fundamental standpoint, you know, if we see -- you know, there's certainly risks as i mentioned on tariffs, but there's also down side risks to growth on trade and immigration that could slow the economy. so we'll see -- we will have to see how things unfold, but from, you know, a fundamental perspective, the consumer seems to be in pretty healthy shape, job formation seems to be pretty solid, you know, as i mentioned, our forecast at nat west is

185,000 on today's jobs report. you know, income formation, wages and salary growth has been running close to almost 6% in nominal terms. that's not really much slowing relative to where you were, say, for example, about a year ago. so consumption could hold up pretty well this year, you know, that was the surprise last year and it has been for a while now. so there's nothing out of the data that we've seen in the last couple of weeks that suggests any sort of real change in overall tone in the labor market and as long as people have obs it seems like they're continuing to spend at a pretty healthy clip. maybe down a little bit from where we were last year, but certainly more along the lines of where the fed was hoping with a soft landing this year. >> kevin, very good. thank you. we will know more at 8:30 and check some of the things that you were looking for. thank you. >> thank you. okay. coming up, a new report saying

americans are tipping less than they have in years. we will talk about the reasons why next. and later, activist short seller andrew left is going to be speaking out, it's the first time he has been and will be interviewed about the criminal and civil fraud charges that have been filed against him by the doj and the s.e.c. lots of folks in the world of hedge funds and investing trying to understand what it all means. "squawk box" coming right back after this.

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dropped by 19.3% in the third -- >> 2. dropped 2. not dropped 5. down from a peek of 19.9% in early 2021. among the factors cited in the piece customers grumpy about the sharp rise in menu prices and mandatory gratuities. >> that's it. >> restaurants have badded to the bills to offset higher costs, another factor people are being asked to tip on payment systems such as digital tablets for things that wouldn't previously have warrant add tip. i think i have spoken about being at newark airport at a self-service checkout, literally where you have to put your credit card in yourself, do the whole thing and it offers you the option, you know, 20, 25, 30 percent. >> you don't see a person anywhere. i will tell you also shopping online they now say would you like to offer a tip or a gratuity online. >> really? >> shopping online.

>> for what kind of product is that? >> for goods, buying goods. i can't even remember what it was but it was stuff -- i see it now probably on 5 to 10% of the purchases. >> you have to tip your ai agent. you have to do that. >> it's crazy. >> so all the waiting staff over in paris are all going to move here. 19.2 -- that is not -- >> i mean, it's an upgrade from before, it used to be 15%, now it's 20. >> a lot of times there is no tip at all over in europe or if there is -- >> in europe it's a different story. >> i know. 19.2 is nothing -- >> that's up from -- when i was growing up 15% was the classic number that people were trying to hit. >> everybody does 20 now. >> then it moved to 20 and even the options -- i don't know about cabs, but i feel like there was a point where it would be 15, 20, 25 and maybe now it's 20, 25, 30. i mean there, has been even inflation -- >> there's always and other button. >> you can always price button. >> i know you were never on

board, but wait until taxes aren't tipped, you will be able to get away with 8%. i'm telling you. because after tax return to these people are going to double when trump gets rid of the taxes. so you're golden. see what i'm saying? >> good for you. you think about those things. i had not -- i had not considered that. >> why tip at 20% when you get to keep the entire 20? it would have been -- what does it come out to after tax, 12? so if there is no taxes just do 12. >> americans, though, are uniquely -- we like to tip. >> we do. >> but the problem that i would say is we like to tip even though we tip -- so the thing, though, that i think is fascinating about this, real quick, we tip because we think that the people who are doing the service work are not being paid enough. that's historically -- i think it's -- >> you tip for a service. >> for service. for good service. i said out of good service and guilt usually. >> it's good service and if you have ever had a service job or if your kids are working service

jobs. >> right. i wonder when joe's tipping thing comes in do people say, oh, no, actually they're getting paid a lot more than they used to? >> i hope not. this levels it out. >> we do have some news. >> is that what they were saying? delta airlines is out with quarterly results. let's get over to phil lebeau. he has those numbers. >> this is a beat on the top and bottom line for delta airlines, earning $1.85 a share in the fourth quarter, revenue coming in at $14.44 billion. the street was expecting $14.18 billion. it was strong demand in the last two months of the fourth quarter. we will talk more about that with ceo ed bastian in about a half hour. free cash flow $680 million. q4 operating margin of 12%. a little below what the street was expecting at 12.3%. revenue per seat mile, the main metric that the airlines are judged on, increased by positive

0.4%, the guidance from delta was flat to negative. so that's better than what the guidance was. listen to the revenue numbers in the fourth quarter. corporate revenue up 10%, premium revenue up 8%, international revenue up 6%. that's the story with the fourth quarter. what about the first quarter? the first guidance from delta in this quarter is for eps of between 70 cents and $1 a share. the street is at 77 cents a share with revenue increasing 7 to 9%. that is well above what the street is expecting. the street is expecting revenue to increase 5.4%. q1 operating margin guidance of 6 to 8%. the street right now is at 6.5%. and then for 2025 delta says it will make at least -- it's expectation is to earn at least $7.35 for the year and then for free cash flow of at least $4 billion. lots to discuss with delta ceo ed bastian, as i mentioned, the beat on the top and bottom line

is because of strong demand across the board for everything in their portfolio in november and december. guys, remember when we talked with ed last quarter he said there was a little bit of uncertainty around the election. once the election got passed they saw a real increase in demand. we will talk about that. >> phil, those shares are up by 1.5%, just about all good news, every metric that you were reporting there. we look forward to seeing you at the top of the hour. thank you. when we come back, uber offering free rides to teens who failed their drivers test. that's nice. we have the details straight ahead. right now as we head to a break let's look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers.

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good morning and welcome

back to "squawk box." live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures before the big jobs report, not much happening, a little bit of red, single digits. that could all change obviously and we will be watching the yield curve as well which might be impacted even more than equities. uber launching a new promotion, it's going to be giving one month of free rides to teens who fail their drivers tests. now, there are some restrictions. uber will provide up to six rides each worth a maximum of $20 and the deal is only good for new riders. those who have already signed up for an uber teen account won't qualify. the promotion ends march 31st, but it's really nice if you know anyone who has ever failed their drivers test. >> oh, i know. terrible. >> it's awful. >> i've seen things that just -- i can't even tell you. especially if you get nervous with the parallel parking.

>> devastating to the poor kid. it's horrible. >> three times. >> it was the greatest -- one of the greatest days ever when it finally happened. coming up, we're going to get you up to speed on this morning's top local stories. "politico's" jonathan martin will be with us right after the break. we'll try to do some lip reading from the funeral services of jimmy carter yesterday as i think we all watched some very interesting conversations and -- >>wkrd. >> -- awkward moments. back after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're going to turn our attention to wall street and now to president-elect trump's agenda. next week's confirmation hearings to maybe some lip reading from yesterday's

funeral. join you go right now is jonathan martin, "politico's" political -- politics bureau chief and senior political columnist. feels like the holidays are over and we're back to business as usual. i don't know as usual, but we're back to business at least, jonathan. >> it doesn't feel like as usual, but we're definitely back to business soon, andrew. >> do you have -- before we get into it, since we were just talking about it and were showing some clips from the -- do you have a sense of what might have been discussed? do we actually know anything about the sort of strange, awkward conversations that were taking place? what was the funny joke that trump must have told obama or what was that? >> oh, it's the ex-presidents fraternity sort of don't you know kind of references that only former presidents can relate to. i thought the most fascinating thing, guys, what was -- wasn't said which is that karen benz

didn't even look at trump let alone talk to him when he walked directly by her, even though mike pence stood up to shake his hands. which shows the politics that spouses take it a lot more seriously than the candidates themselves. and personally too. >> not to mention you had jill biden seated next to kamala harris and didn't look like there was any love loss there. >> not much chumminess, yeah. but speaking of chumminess, we did have w. come back and give the old like chest snap at barack obama like they were, you know, in a locker room together. >> he thumped him right in the stomach almost but completely ignored trump who was sitting next to him. >> and the decals at yale walking back in and said hello to him. it was vintage 43. it's a good point, though, that he did that to obama but didn't do it for trump which sort of tells you about trump's role, guys, in the former president's club which is a little bit awkward. >> it has everything to do with

low energy jeb and what trump said about w.'s father. there's no way anything pleasant was going to go on between the trump and bush family. they're almost mortal enemies. no one was expecting that. >> in my experience the bush's and trumps are not exchanging holiday cards. >> but maybe before -- maybe before the vice president -- the vice president and jill biden at this point. i don't know who -- where the christmas cards are coming from. neither. >> there's a little chill there. a little chill in the air there. yeah. yeah. >> jonathan, let's talk about the greenland, panama canal and canada situation, buying those assets. >> yes. >> if they can be called assets. i don't even -- that's maybe a loaded term. we just saw that there's congressman who now has a bill to give trump, i guess, permission or allowance from

congress to go try to negotiate on behalf of the u.s. government for these things. what is your sense of the realistic nature of any of these things and also, i think, what we were debating was just it's one thing to go try to buy something, it's another to try to either coerce them economically and or with military force. sort of how that's even thought about in this administration. >> well, first of all, you start with why trump won the election. democrats put up incumbent president, the country viewed as too old, and they paid a price for high inflation and republicans were the opposition party and they won because of those two factors. it wasn't because the former president was vowing to do a mckinley tr style territorial expansion. this is not what trump ran on. now, that said i think he's fairly serious about doing something, guys, when it comes to panama and greenland for geopolitical reasons. now, it's trump so you have to recognize a lot of this is an

opening bid that he's trying to get some leverage here. he's not going to send the 101st airborne on january 21st to the panama canal, but this is an opening bid and also think about mexico paying for the wall the first time around. trump can find some rationale or some spin to portray whatever does eventually happen as a victory. here is an example. let's say we get some kind of a naval facility, get some submarines up to greenland, which is a crucial part of the world, the arctic is a real battle zone now between china, russia and the rest of the world. trump would declare that a victory in a heartbeat saying we now have an important military footprint, our great submariners are going to be patrolling the arctic from our new donald j. trump naval facility in greenland. he would claim victory on that. i don't think necessarily you take him literally, guys, but you take him seriously. >> who was michelle obama mad

at? >> because she wasn't at the funeral. >> she wasn't there at all. that's a good question. >> she hates trump, she doesn't like kamala. i don't know. >> she doesn't like politics, period, i don't think. >> biden. maybe. we were wondering about -- the whole thing is -- it's like high school almost. >> it really -- it really is. it really is. >> it's crazy. go ahead. >> you go. >> no, i already forgot what i was going to talk about with the -- >> i was going to go to a totally different topic before we go, jonathan, which is these wildfires in california. >> yes. >> and the federal budget and using federal money to rescue folks who, frankly, do need it, but what do you think is going to happen long term under trump? also given his own views about gavin newsom and frankly the way california has operated. >> let's talk about newsom, too, and whether is he just damaged beyond repair at this point?

he's looked -- if you look at the history of what's been going on the delta smelt is only coming out of hatcheries. we didn't save anything in terms of, you know, not building any reservoirs, taking down dams, sal mom salmon repop operation, it's insane the decisions that culminated what we've seen. >> you know this and your viewers do, too, there is a long political history of elected officials being damaged by natural disasters that they didn't handle well at the state level, state level and even at the national level. so that would not be a new thing in this country and i do think newsom is going to have to try to turn the story around here. i think even more pressing is mayor karen bass who i think takes a big chunk of the blame right now. it doesn't help that she was out of the country when this thing got out of control. andrew, to your point on trump and the federal government, this is a great illustration that all

the planning, all of the prep in the world for an administration goes out the window by events. this is going to probably be one of the biggest natural disaster price tags in american history and, yeah, these guys behind me in the white building are going to have to pass a bill in the first few months of this year to help pay for help for l.a. and that's only the first. so who knows what else is next. but clearly they're going to need some kind of federal aid here in the months ahead. >> okay. jonathan, great to talk to you. lip reading next time. >> thanks, pal. "squawk box" coming right back after this. y property by connecting them to the actual listing agent. (agent) i'm getting great exposure. (marci) speaking of exposure, could we get him a hat? (luke) ooo, what about a beret? (vo) homes-dot-com. we've done your home work. ok guys, instead of getting weathertech, i saved a few bucks and got some cheap, foreign made floor mats.

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coming up, consumers opened up their wallets in december but will the spending momentum continue into 2025. we have the latest consumer checkpoint from bank of america. that's next. then an exclusive interview with delta airlines ceo ed bastian. that company just out with earnings, beating expectations and raising guidance for the current quarter. we will talk all about that with ed bastian shortly. "squawk box" will be right back.

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consumer checkpoint. in december, spending per household on credit and debit cards increased by 2.2% year over year. that's the strongest monthly growth we've seen since february of last year. joining us right now is liz everett, the head of the bank of america institute and liz, when we spoke with you earlier in december, we were all wondering if that spending was actually going to show up. it did. >> oh, it showed up. it showed big-time. i mean, it was strong going into the end of the year. it was like people were accelerating to get to the end of the year, to the raise, and what was interesting is there was two things driving that. one is an old story, services spending. services spending in december was up 0.5%, people are continuing to pay to have experiences but the second thing is new, and it's something we haven't talked about in a long time. >> clothing? >> clothing is part of it, but the rebound in retail spending. retail spending not only turned positive, it's been negative for a while, but was at 1.3%, which is the highest level in almost

two years. and it was broad-based in terms of what was driving that. >> i couldn't believe it when i saw the clothing numbers. >> 8.5%, but it wasn't just -- clothing was really the standout, but it was general merchandise. it was groceries. so, what we are seeing is -- and what we saw in december, it will be interesting to see if it lasts, is this shift and this transition, this rebound back into retail spending in addition to experiences, though. it's not that they're shifting from services to retail. >> what was really interesting about that is they were not mortgaging themselves to do this. they actually had increases in income, and that's why they were able to spend. >> exactly. and i know i say this all the time but the key to understanding the spending is understanding the labor market. obviously, we're all going to be paying attention at 8:30. what we look at at the institute in terms of the data to understand the labor market is actually income. so, after tax income coming into consumer accounts and what we saw there was also very strong. so, across all of the income categories, income in december

was up about 3%. that's an acceleration from 2% in november, and the big change here, the notable change, is that higher-income households, actually, 2.9%, but around 3%, that's the highest level we've seen for that group in almost three years. and that's then translating into spending. >> so, we have a jobs number today, and that will give us more to chew over, but this is data that the fed has to look at and say, okay, maybe we're right to pause and not thinking about further cuts. >> we certainly share this data with the fed, and we're looking at it, and that, you know, that is what our -- the data is telling us. one of the things that i think is also interesting that we take a look at often is, how does the data compare to what surveys are saying? and confidence, you know? confidence, michigan, consumer -- we have seen confidence increase, really, since july, and that is, obviously, translating into the spending, but the driver of the improvement in confidence has

really been the question, is now a good time to buy a large household good? that's been the driver of that -- of the michigan survey. but when we look at our data, we're actually not seeing that translate into people buying more large household goods. >> they bought so many of them during covid. >> that may be part of it. it may be part, people might think it's a good time to buy because the fed cutting rates, financing might be better. they might be thinking, i want to buy ahead of a potential tariff. but the reality is, in our data, the percent -- the share of people buying household goods is at the same level it was last year and it's actually down from 2022. so, i think about that as a reminder of why it is so important for us to be looking at the data from 69 million bank of america consumers as opposed to listening to what they're actually doing -- as opposed to listening to what people are saying they're going to do. >> the one thing that jumped out, gas prices, that was responsible for a 3% increase too. and if you look at the inflation

picture, along with higher wages, that has to be the thing the fed worries about. >> i think on gas prices, i don't know if you filled up your tank recently, but gas prices are ticking back up again. but in december, the average in december was actually below november, so that 3% growth wasn't driven by prices. >> it was people actually traveling. >> it was people traveling. >> that's an excellent point too. fair notice that, look, everything you're seeing goes along with this idea that the fed should not be cutting rates again. >> that's the story that it's telling. i mean, the consumer is still strong. and it is accelerating. so, you're seeing wages increase. you're seeing spending increase. it's a strong story. >> liz, thank you. >> great to be here. thanks. >> we appreciate it. it is just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernan and becky quick. we got a lot going on to tell you about this morning. walgreens boots just reporting its earnings, 51 cents a share.

that is much better than the 37 cents the street had been expecting. revenue of $39, beating estimates. pharmacy sales growing double digits on higher volumes but despite all the better than expected results, walgreens just affirming its guidance for the full year, so you're seeing the stock up just a bit but not necessarily even more than that based on some of this news, joe. >> delta's out with quarterly results. let's get to phil lebeau, who joins us with a special guest. good morning again, phil. >> good morning, joe. ed bastian, ceo of delta, thank you for joining us when you guys beat the street on the top and bottom line, and you really saw an acceleration in demand after the election. tell me, in your own words, what you saw. >> we had a strong close to the year, record fourth quarter profits, team did an amazing job with respect to the operational performance, particularly during the busy holiday period, led the industry across the board on that. the brand is healthy. we're seeing a lot of momentum.

advance bookings look great into the new year and once we got through the election season and there was clarity, demand came across the board, whether it was internationally, corporately, consumer, premium led the way as usual. >> and you know the discussion that's out there right now, regarding your stock and other airline stocks. you're all close to all-time highs, and the discussion is, do they deserve to be rerated at a higher multiple? the skeptics will say, look, this is the head fake we've seen from this industry time and again. when do you get to the point where you can say to wall street, it's different this time? >> well, we're looking next year in '25 at our all-time best year in history so to me, this is a sustained momentum that we built. if you go back over the last decade, we have been building strength. obviously, covid hit us really, really hard but we're back and we're better than ever. >> and it's sustainable? >> well, the themes that we had for last year's investor conference that we did in november was around differentiation and durability.

delta is leading the industry in every metric you can imagine, particularly in consumer health and durability. we're going to generate, this year, over $4 billion in free cash flow, which we're going to use to continue to improve the balance sheet. i think one of the challenges you have had with the re-rating comments are that there's never really been an enterprise-leading, financially durable franchise in this industry. delta's going to be that, and i see over the next two years us clearly achieving that, which will lead to the re-rating of delta. >> when you look at the differentiation, you just had ces celebrating your -- or marking the beginning of your 100th anniversary, and you're talking about new partnerships, whether it's with uber, youtube, draftkings. how long before those start to gain traction and you can say, look, here's the difference it's making not just to the brand building but also to the bottom line? >> it's already working in all those partnerships that i mentioned that ces that we had the other night, they're already going to start taking effect

this year, starting this spring, so whether it's youtube, whether it's uber, and it's building on the experiences that we have been creating. we live in the experience world, the experience economy, and the health of our experience for our consumers has never been stronger and as a result, the demand's never been stronger so we're going to continue to personalize. we talked about delta concierge, which we launched the other evening. it's going to be about, how do you personalize that experience for consumers to make it as seamless as possible, driving innovation all the way from home to your seats? and the entertainment, the loyalty dynamics that go alongside it, you know, we have the next century of flight to look to, and i could not be more optimistic in terms of what i'm seeing. >> that century will include new aircraft. you've got, what, about 40 -- did you say a-350s? >> we have 40 airbus planes coming in '25, including some 350s. >> are you comfortable with their ability to meet delivery, given the supply chain problems?

do you feel like them -- we know what's going on with boeing is a separate issue, but the supply chain is to the level of strength that it can meet the demand that's out there? >> airbus has done a very good job over the last ten years hitting their targets with delta. we're a priority customer for them, and we'll continue to receive that equipment, i'm sure, relatively on time. >> we've got a new administration starting in a couple of weeks. have you talked with president-elect trump? >> i'm not going to talk about any personal conversations i have had with the incoming administration, but we, as a firm, always provide support through the transition process with the next administration, and they've appreciated our insights and we'll see where things go. >> give me a quick snapshot on the consumer right now. international, corporate, premium? >> well, all channels are really strong, and that's what led to the great fourth quarter that we had. we're looking in the first quarter close to double digits in terms of top-line revenue growth. we're looking at doubling our eps in the first quarter. we're looking at next year being

the top financial performance in our history. you've got corporates up double digits. you've got the international up close to double digits. you've got american express loyalty remuneration and spending at double-digit levels so every aspect that we're putting out -- and again, many of these in premium categories -- are really, really healthy. >> and the industry, you believe, at least here in north america, has it made it past the issues with overcapacity that we saw last year? >> this is the most constructive backdrop that i ever recall seeing in my 25 years. all airlines are being challenged and appropriately so by their owners to return a solid return back to their shareholders. and particularly in the lower cost sector. and against that backdrop, you see who the big players are, particularly southwest. they've made commitments. they're not going to grow until they start to hit their return on investment capital numbers, which is probably going to be two to three years from now in terms of where they're comfortable with that. they say one of those carriers is in bankruptcy, really hard to

grow and break discipline when you're in bankruptcy. everyone is falling in line with that because we all are beneficiaries of a healthier backdrop, and when you can provide the right balance of supply and demand, that's what's going to lead to the entire industry re-ing, not just delta. >> ed bastian, on a day they beat on the top and bottom line. guys, back to you. >> phil, thank you. coming up, a preview of the big jobs report, plus jon fortt is going to be here for this week's "on the other hand". >> look at those hands. >> those aren't jon's. potential immigration policy changes under president trump and what it could mean for tech companies, specifically. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're counting down to the december employment report. steve liesman joins us right now with what investors can expect. >> here we are, andrew. markets on edge over whether this is a cut or a hold jobs report this morning. that is, whether payroll growth comes in weak enough to reignite the fed's worries about economic weakness and rate cuts or strong enough to justify holding rates where they are. the consensus for one that you could argue a little bit both ways. nonfarm payroll expected down, but that's from 227. but the unemployment rate remains the same at 4.2%, higher than the lowest levels we have had, but still pretty low in and of itself. average hourly wages looking to step down, 0.3% versus 0.4%. that will keep the year over year rate at 4%. we look at the three-month average payroll growth. it's been slow from a robust average north of 250 in the spring but now it's remained around 173. still pretty high. economists at b of a saying, "a

pause in january is clearly the base case. moreover, we see a risk that the cutting cycle could be over if the labor market stops gradually cooling off." for now, b of a sticking with their forecast for two rate cuts this year, one in march, one in june. that's not how the market is priced, and i think that's an out-there forecast. traders see little chance of a cut in january, a modest probability in march and may, greater certainty of easing in june, and then they just have this very modest conviction. where is that number? 50% for a second cut by december. that's how we're priced. fed officials seem reasonably united that policy is now on hold after they did 100 basis points of cuts, unless there's a clear signal from strengthening inflation or weakening jobs report, we're unlikely to get that clear signal this morning and we're going to hear from one of those fed officials later this morning. chicago fed president austan goolsbee joins us 8:00 a.m. --

>> 10:00 a.m. >> what did i say? >> 8:00. >> it might be 8:00 in chicago. >> 9:00. >> it's 9:00 in chicago. >> thank you for correcting me. >> he's still sleeping in. >> you need to give him a call, joe. >> we tweet. >> we tweet. >> we do dm. things like that. but that's disappointing. it's disappointing. >> what, that he's coming on to the network for a first-on exclusive? you're a team player, joe, aren't you? >> yeah. no, i wish he was -- >> if the numbers are lousy, what's jay powell really think? >> i think if the numbers are lousy, and remain lousy for a couple months, i think jay would be right back in the game is what i think. i think he was very insistent that he was not going to allow -- >> does that mean the markets have to be, like, they want bad news? >> i think they do. >> is that what we're talking about here? >> you know, i always puzzle over that, and i hope people like you could explain it more to me, because if the economy is growing more, i think --

>> that's what you would think. >> we've talked about this a couple times. a couple weeks ago, we did a story on the higher productivity and waller came along and confirmed my report, thank you very much, that higher productivity means a higher neutral rate over time. you have the fiscal spending issues, which is the supply, and you have the possibility, perhaps, of a boost of growth that might accompany the incoming administration. so, there's reasons -- >> treasury yields. that's been where the market's been moving. the equities market has moved the opposite of yields. >> i'd much rather have -- >> growth and then cuts? >> no. i'd much rather have inflation -- >> oh, abated? >> abated. and it was weird yesterday with the funeral, we revisited that entire period again and again and again, that carter said, i'm going to put volker in, and i won't be re-elected if he does what he has to do. >> jimmy's your man, joe. he did deregulation of the airline industry. he's your man. >> i voted for him.

you didn't. once. i i want to make that clear. but i wanted to get to what -- i had kind of a -- an online or twitter went crazy. elarn saying he wants to move the goal posts, fully on board, moving from 2.5 to 3%. and people went crazy. he says that allows us to maintain our american exceptionalism the. that's 50% higher than 2%, steve, in over i forgot how many years but the dollar goes down in half over like a 15-year period or something when you compound 3% instead of 2%. you want to move the goal posts too? >> no. what i would like to see is the fed strike a range between 1.5% and 2.5%. >> that's 2%, though. >> $27 trillion economy and say, i'm going to go take this from 50 yards away and put it through

the eye of a needle. >> i would say, 2.5 to 3%. >> i don't agree with mohamed on that and there's a good group of people that i'm interested in reading about these days that think 2% is wrong, that think zero is better. they're less concerned about deflation. >> what's goal over time? they've -- supposedly, that's where they got it, gold appreciates. >> it's at $2,700. >> if gold -- you try to set the increase in dollars to the -- to something, and that's 2%. >> you try to keep it to the growth of the economy. that's what they had -- >> two sounds better for that. >> it makes sense to me too. and it could be three. guys, real quickly, can we look at the payroll data from adp? i wanted to show you that and what's happening. it has been leveling out. and that's a reason why powell has not been concerned that the job market would be a source of inflation, so there's the job stayers versus the job changers. and you can see it's kind of flat. it had been a nice bump in

there, and now it's come back down to being even. maybe a little elevated. >> two data points, bank of america saying consumers had a lot of momentum in spending. >> we'll have our report on monday on the retail monitor. >> we talked to delta, and -- >> i can't believe how off the charts that is. >> spending continues. people are still doing that with airlines. >> he's saying delta's going to become a bank, they're so good. i was amazed at that. i can tell you the planes are full. coming up next, jon fortt is going to join us with his first on -- i didn't think of it that way -- first "on the other hand" segment of the new year, 2025. and then later, from washington to wall street, we're going to discuss d.c.'s agenda and president-elect trump's economic policy with former house majority leader and moelis vice chair, eric cantor. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what college football team

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active winning streak in bowl games? the answer? the minnesota golden gophers. coach p.j. fleck has won eight straight bowl games. all right, we are less than two weeks from the second trump presidency, and changes to immigration policy. one controversial area is the h1b visas for skilled workers. are they more a way to access global talent or are they a way to replace american workers? >> right now, it's displacement, and the right wing of the maga movement and progressive senator bernie sanders actually agree, so the original intent was to let businesses hire temporary foreign workers for roles when they couldn't find qualified people in the u.s. but companies have let companies use it like off-shoring. the disney example is the most

egregious. ten years ago, i.t. workers sued disney for firing them and pressuring them to train their h1b replacements or forfeit their severance. the workers had to drop the lawsuits because it was legal. disney technically didn't hire foreign workers to replace americans. it outsourced much of the i.t. department to two staffing firms that employed the visa holders. also because the contract h1b workers made at least $60,000 a year or had masters degrees, hiring them didn't trigger american worker protections. a decade later, those practices haven't stopped. a study by the economic policy institute showed between 2022 and q12023, the top 30 companies using the visas laid off 85,000 american workers and hired more than 34,000 new h1b visa holders. this country can't compete on a global stage if we're setting up american workers to lose at home. the h1b needs an overhaul, becky. >> the devil's advocate position on that would be that anything can be abused, but doesn't the united states want to be a magnet for talent and what

happens if you change those h1b visa programs? >> well, becky, on the other hand, the h1b visa is a valuable tool. we need to secure the future. the bureau of labor statistics estimates that computer and information technology job openings in the u.s. will top 350,000 per year for the next decade at a median annual wage of more than six figures. don't get me wrong, h1b abuse is a problem and it's sure to be depressing the job prospects for many u.s. workers but we need the u.s. to be the destination for young talent in the world to satisfy that demand and contrary to some of the popular talking points out there, we don't want only ph.d.s coming in. we want talented and ambitious workers at various career stages so long as they're not underpaid and warping the talent market. look at some of the most successful u.s. companies of the last decade, microsoft, google, tesla, nvidia, amd all have leaders who immigrated to the u.s. long before anyone would

have assumed they were ceo material, so yes, the h1b needs fixing but not just to protect the jobs and wages of u.s. workers. we need a strong h1b to protect the future of the u.s. economy so the next generation's elon musks and satya nadella's can get a foothold here and multiply that opportunity for others. both musk and nadella have said they were h1b visa holders at one point, by the way. >> how would you fix it? how would you tighten it up without breaking it, and then comes the question of the people that we bring in and have educated here at american universities. how do you find a way to keep some of that talent here too? >> one of the first common sense ways is to raise the floor, kind of the minimum salary of the h1b visa holder to above the median, right? so, then, the incentive -- if there is any american worker who can do that job, it will actually be cheaper than bringing somebody in from the outside. but then, if there's not, well,

fine, then you had to bring somebody in, you pay more, you should be willing to do it. >> how do we start accelerating in s.t.e.m. areas again? >> well, doing away with the department of education might help. i don't know. >> i mean, that's the crux -- >> you take a look at what -- >> it's a paradox. we want to lead the world. but if we don't -- if we aren't producing people that are going to be at the cutting edge of all these technologies because they're in communications -- >> right now, we're not in favor of centralized education standards but a lot of the countries that are managing to move ahead in s.t.e.m. have figured out how to do some effective centralized education standards. well, if you want to debate all this with your friends, in your head, the on the other hand newsletter can help. there's a qr code on the screen. you can type in cnbc.com/otoh and get the full text of both of these arguments and share. >> i think everybody at this table has a lot of friends in their head that we talk with

regularly. jon, thank you. >> some of them, real. >> yeah. >> people will tell you to -- you don't need a thousand friends. >> you don't. in fact, what's the limit on facebook? something like 500-something. they figured it out. >> i'm talking about serious friends in your life. >> even on facebook, they're saying, you can't manage more friends than that. they set some limits at some point. >> i've done really well. >> at culling? >> yeah. coming up, why president-elect trump is pushing to annex greenland and a look at what's there, why it matters to the administration. check out the futures this morning. not a whole lot of action yet, although they're much worse than they were when we started, quk vetrleigs.n ip dit "sawbox" will be right back. >> announcer: "on the other hand" is sponsored by coupa.

♪ welcome to "squawk box." we've got some deal news to

bring you. constellation energy, the largest u.s. owner of nuclear power is acquiring calpine. it's a cash and stock deal valued at about $16.4 billion. the deal expected to add a more than $2 billion of free cash flow annually and also deliver more than 20% of eps accretion in 2026. meantime, president-elect trump's speaking at gop -- at the gop governors conference yesterday where he reiterated the idea of taking over greenland from denmark. we've been talking about this all morning. pippa stevens is here with more on what greenland has to offer. >> president-elect donald trump has set his sights on greenland because of its rich mineral resources, access to global shipping routes and strategic location in the arctic, which is especially important as tensions with russia and china flare. greenland has 25 of the 34 minerals deemed critical by the european commission, including lithium and graphite, which are key for ev batteries and cell phones. it also has rare earth reserves,

which are crucial for the energy transition, military equipment, and computer chips. china currently dominates that market, and with tariff threats and possible retaliation, greenland could be another supply source. the country also has ample oil and gas reserves. now, as arctic ice melts, shipping routes around greenland could also become more accessible, significantly cutting transit times and costs and avoiding bottlenecks like the panama canal. two key routes are on either side of greenland, the northwest passage and the transarctic route. russia has reopened military bases in the arctic, and china wants to build a polar silk road passing through arctic waters and so u.s. access is key. the u.s. has had a presence in greenland since the early '40s and currently owns the space in northwest greenland, which includes missile defense and space monitoring. but rachel rizzo from the atlantic council told me that overall trump's focus on greenland is about economic competition with china and making sure the u.s. has control

of key elements to make advanced tech to counter china's rise. >> pippa, i think the big question is, what do you think the actual cost of this thing is? what's the valuation? >> no one has really put a firm figure on it, and of course, both greenland and denmark have reiterated multiple times that the island is not for sale, but they do have vast mineral resources, but the question is, can you actually access them? of course, right now, more than 80% of the island is covered by ice, and so getting down there, they also don't have a robust labor force and also no greenland-based company has the resources and know-how. >> but do we know -- if the comp is going to be -- you could take the comp being alaska at $200 million back in the day. you could do -- the louisiana purchase doesn't really work anymore. >> manhattan. >> how would you -- how would you even do the math? is anybody doing the math on this? >> not that i have seen so far. i think you would be in the trillions simply because of those reserves, but this is really unprecedented.

you can think about small caribbean islands or something like the marshall islands as maybe the latest examples but the scale there is very different. i think at this point, no actual figure has been put on it. there would still need to be a lot of negotiations. greenland is also pushing for autonomy from denmark as it is, so still a lot to figure out. >> that vote is supposed to come us. there's 50,000 people who live there. >> that's right. they are pushing for that, but they're still relying on denmark for about one fifth of their gdp. >> there's no way to overpay. >> i'm just trying to think -- >> it's -- we pay a tenth of what it's worth. >> if ryan or barbara corcoran were brokering this deal, what they'd be charging for greenland. >> depends on which side they were representing. >> right? >> i mean, first, you look at their reserves and try to model that out and then the strategic position and all of that. but i think looking at a price tag, potentially, in the trillions. >> i think that would be a good netflix show, right? ryan sirhan has that new show on

netflix. do you know what i'm talking about? it's a real estate show. >> i was thinking of some other real estate people that have gotten in -- probably won't use those guys. >> i'd watch that show. >> pippa, thank you. all right, when we come back, moelis vice chair and former house majority leader eric cantor will join us. "squawk box" will be right back.

our next guest will weigh in on congress and president-elect trump's economic agenda, the deals landscape, which he knows about now, and more. welcome former house majority leader, eric cantor, now moelis and company vice chairman and managing director. thanks for joining us. seems like things are a little different than the last congress in terms of that mike johnson election as speaker. at least at this point. can trump maintain control? >> well, i mean, i think right now, we've been seeing for a while, you know, he is the party, and so, he's got a powerful punch coming in, and it's going to really drive an agenda, and i think that it's

much different than what we saw eight years ago in terms of the experience of the team he's got now. he himself understands now where to go, and i do think they're going to get a lot done, first hundred days. >> the big beautiful bill, is it -- will it be one? is that possible to do? >> it depends what your definition of beautiful is. if you're talking about -- if you're talking about -- >> depends on where you're sitting. >> if you're talking about a debt ceiling on top of the 4.5 or $5 trillion tax extensions, all that, i'm not sure it can -- the traffic can bear all that. but i do subscribe to, you know, a position where it is, i think, much more straightforward, easier to get one bill. now, when you look to these members, and they're not going to get everything they want in the bill, and you're going to want to promise them another vehicle, there is another option to have another reconciliation bill later, so it's not that the

dialogue and discussion won't be about two, but you're going to try to get everything done that you need on the tax piece on the first one. >> we -- i mean, my eyes don't glaze over with budget talks and things like that, but if we can talk about, like, whether we use military force to seize canada, it just seems like more newsworthy discussions. take your pick. panama. greenland. i think canada is making an offer for alaska and minnesota. i said, we're keeping alaska, but i'm open to -- give me a price on minnesota. >> you give the people of twin cities a vote. look, the thing is, we've been here before. i mean, we understand what this is about. we sort of understand what we've missed over the last four years, right? you just haven't had this sort of entertainment piece that comes with president trump. >> but -- where there's smoke, there's -- i'm not going to use that analogy, but where there may be -- there may be a grain of negotiating or something.

>> there's serious issues under each of these sort of, you know, these theories of purchasing greenland. it is about strategic import. you just had a piece on the critical minerals, but it's also about russia. it's about china. it's about their positioning in the arctic. >> would we use coercion, economic or military? >> that's the question. >> well, i cannot imagine that you've got a nato ally that you're going to sit here and undertake any kind of military action -- >> right, but the question is -- >> again, we're in a different -- >> is economic coercion okay? >> what about economic coercion? i think the question is, is there a way to do -- let's say you want these things to happen. is there a way to do this in a way that's friendly, that's not seen as coercive? because does that -- if it is coercive, ultimately, does it change the entire dynamic around the globe as to how people view the united states? i mean, it's one thing to be -- >> they already hate us. >> there's a difference between -- >> they got iraq.

they got all that. >> they love us. >> no, they got a million reasons to hate. the great satan? >> if you were -- hold on. if you're a bully, i think everyone agrees, yes, people will -- >> people think we're bullies already. they think we're bullies already. europe does. >> they hate the bully. >> they already hate us. >> they may kiss the ring of the bully, but they hate the bully. >> they already hate us. >> i don't think that's the case. >> i think the appeal and what's going on now globally is the appeal is we got to go take care of ourselves. we've been carrying the load of the world on our shoulders. that is politically where we are. >> correct. >> so, if you're saying, are we going to use the might of america to sort of help better the lives of people here at home? you're darn right. that's what trump was elected on. but every other leader in the world is of the same ilk, and they're going to go after that too. so, whether you say it is coercion or whether you say it's leverage, the thought on the part of most of the people that are driving trump's popularity

is the fact that they don't think we've gotten a fair shake, and that we're paying too much. >> that's been our trade policy all along. >> but the definition -- >> we have to be an example of this. it's a real world, andrew. >> the definition of a strong man is an interesting concept and if you're suggesting that every country is now turning into -- all leaders are now "strong men," that's a much more complicated place. >> that is not, i don't think, in the end -- trump's got his way of negotiating and just framing the deal and that's what we're all talking about purchasing greenland. we're all talking about a national security threat and/or maybe canada should be a 51st state. like, pick your side. but we know how trump does this. but at the end of the day, it really is about the rules that we put in place way back after world war ii that we don't think have been properly sort of followed and executed for us. >> how much of this, though, is a ridiculous conversation? in the following way. we talked about building a wall. we never really fully built the

wall. >> whose fault is that? >> owe elon musk talked about $2 trillion. we're now talking about $1 trillion. i'm not saying they're not the germ of something, meaning there will be some outcome that will be potentially helpful to the country, but the idea -- the sort of -- there's the big idea, and then there's a more realistic idea. >> we've been here before. we understand when the -- with the wall issue about mexico paying, you know what they did do? under trump, they went and fortified their southern border to go and stem the tide of the migrants so that we benefitted. this is just his m.o. we get that. everybody's falling for it again, but to sit here and talk about that we're going to overtake, militarily -- >> what should we be talking about? >> well, we shouldn't be talking about firing squads for the press and no one's going to raid joy behar's house and put her in prison. we're back to that again. >> what should we be talking about? >> we should be talking about the difference that trump's going to make in terms of our confidence in this economy. and i can tell you at moelis, we have, you know, we have been involved in all kinds of

conversation now with clients that are really looking forward to a much more level-headed, if you will, regulatory environment. >> meaning what? they're going to do more deals? they're going to invest more? explain how that -- >> all of that. because for the first part, you've got, you know, the strategics, the public companies, the large caps, that have been held back because of a regime in washington under the current administration that has been overwhelmed by ideology, and now we're going to get back to a much more balanced approach. so, that means, yes, more deals. >> so, investment bankers are probably looking on average at their -- their bonuses being up 10% because nobody wants to lose an investment banker if you think you're about to go into a very competitive environment with a lot more deals that are happening. you're seeing this lineup at this moment? >> what i believe, and set aside a comp and all that, i'm just saying, in terms of the macro-outlook for the economy and the willingness on the part of boards and senior management

to take action, to take advantage of the evolution, the technology that's occurring, a.i., to position their companies. your also got the investor side on the sponsor side that have, you know, in terms of recycling the capital that that push has been there. it is finally beginning to unleash because, again, on the federal reserve ide, you've now had some more certainty in that regard. so what we should be talking about in terms of washington, we should be talking about doge and what's realistic in terms of what they can get done, and i hope that what we're going to see out of them is a complete rework of the regulatory state in washington, the look at what we can do to fix that to lower the cost on the private sector. >> eric, thank you. >> thank you. appreciate it. when we come back, the supreme court set to hear arguments on the case to ban tiktok. we're going to hear from tusk

venture capitalist ceo bradley tusk on today's hearing. later, we have got a big interview. activist short seller andrew left speaking out. it's the first time he will be asked about the criminal and civil fraud charges filed against him by the doj and the s.e.c. ahead of his trial, scheduled for september. a lot of folks on wall street, investment community a hge nded funds, watching that. "squawk box," coming right back after this.

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coming up, the future of tiktok hangs in the balance of the supreme court. we will hear from tusk venture's ceo, bradley tusk, right after this. i always want to hear fleetwood mac's "tusk." now we can sing it. as we head to a break, a look at the premarket winners and losers on the nasdaq this morning. we'll be right back. (♪♪)

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he is the ceo of tusk ventures. bradley, walk us through this. what do you think happens here? is tiktok going to disappear or do you think that there will be something that can be done by the incoming president trump who has said he's kind of in favor of this sticking around? >> i don't think there's much he can do. the court has been -- especially lately -- very deferential towards congress. so, becky, you and i have talked a lot about section 230 and the ability of people to try to sue the social media platforms for the harm caused by their content and the court has consistently said congress gave these platforms immunity from the kind of liability and they upheld that. in the chevron deference case from the summer where they basically said the decision of what happens on regulation is up to congress not up to the agencies, again, they deferred to congress. so based on all that have it seems very likely that the will have congress which was to say that tiktok cannot be held by chinese ownership will be upheld. trump can do a 90-day pause,

that might delay it for a tiny bit but ultimately he would need to pass a new law by congress and the first bill passed with bipartisan support that's not going to happen. >> wow. let's just talk this through. i mean, that's a decent analysis, i think, looking at what the court has done to date, but if you are right on this, it doesn't mean tiktok is going to disappear overnight. >> no. >> anybody who has downloaded it still has the app, it just means it's going to sharply curtail their growth or force a sale. >> or force a sale. right. i mean, there's one of two -- there's one of three outcomes here. the first one would be that tiktok just kind of fades away, google play and the apple app store wouldn't be allowed to host it. you couldn't update the app and eventually the quality would degrade to a point where people couldn't use it and for an app that's video centric quality is important. the other option would be bytedance sells it to a u.s. buyer, frank mccourt has put together a group to try to do it

and other names rumored are oracle, amazon, microsoft, a few others. so that's possible. and the third would be that bytedance and really the chinese government decides not to sell tiktok and it just eventually does degrade to a point where it's not on u.s. platforms anymore in which case, by the way, those 170 million users and all of the creators will migrate to other platforms, both existing platforms and new platforms thald be created to take advantage of the opportunity. so the idea that people won't have the opportunity for speech, opportunity to view and create content, to me that doesn't make any sense at all. >> meta has been considered a big winner. can you think of others potentially if this plays out that way? >> you know, truth social, elon musk, there are a few people at mar-a-lago who have pretty big stakes in social media platforms that would do pretty well here. we're also seeing meta and other companies really paying as much homage and asance to trump as

they can. mark zuckerberg does not want trump to pause tiktok, those he could get a massive upswing in users if tiktok goes away. that may be part of why this lobbying change, putting dana white on his board, switching the way they do fact checking, giving money to trump, all of that may be in part because to him the upside of getting the tiktok users is more important than anything else. >> bradley, i still kind of push through what china's reaction would be. you know, they have said the chinese government wouldn't allow a sale. do you think china sticks with that? do you think there is a negotia with this as part of that? i mean, there have been people speculating that maybe there is a negotiation to be had with the chinese government over this. i don't know why the chinese government cares so much if they are not interested in keeping this as a strategic asset. >> right. i mean, so, look, on one hand they're estimating it's worth anywhere from 20 to 100 billion

dollars, that's not nothing for anybody, even a government. arguably you wouldn't want to sacrifice that value en tierm. if you are the chinese government it's also not that much money, either. if they think there's a broader strategic reason to have tiktok go along or prolong it for as long as they can, will use it for leverage in a broader strategic negotiation i suspect they will do that. it seems early because trump is not taking office still for another 11 days or whatever it is that there's going to be a broad-based strategic overall negotiation with china around taiwan and trade and all of these other things that also include a resolution on tiktok, but maybe tiktok goes away for a while and then there's bigger negotiation with china over a lot of issues, especially tariffs and tiktok returns in some form as part of that. >> let me ask you very quickly about congestion pricing here in new york city. >> sure. >> just from your experience in government, from your experience in working with uber, it's only the first week. i will say in the mornings it's been a lot easier to get out of

here, there doesn't seem to be as much traffic, as many trucks. is it working? >> hard to know because we also had snow this week and there's been so much attention around congestion pricing. there is a bunch of different factors. ultimately, look, governor hochul made a big bet she believes congestion pricing will work and two things will have to be apparent to voters when she comes up before them next year for them to feel that she was right. one, like you just said we have to feel like there's less congestion, easier to get around manhattan in a car and, two, the subways have to feel better. right now not using subways every day they're disgusting. they are dirty, they are dangerous. a couple days ago the head of the mta said that there's not really much crime in the subways and it's mainly in people's heads. ever since then i have made a log of every time i have gone on the subway what do i see. i have yet to go on a subway car that didn't at least have a homeless person sleeping and taking up the whole bench. new yorkers are not willing to

accept that as the status quo of how their mass transit should work. if hochul and lieber can clean up the subways and there's less traffic i think huge winners and it helps her. if the subways remain dirty and disgusting and traffic remains bad they will have to answer to that. >> great to talk to you, bradley. thank you. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew will be joining us shortly with an interview with short seller andrew left. among our top stories this morning, we are counting down to the government's december jobs report. economists believe about 155,000 jobs were added last month. we will get that number at 8:30 eastern time. officials say the los angeles wildfires have killed at least ten people and turned more than 10,000 homes and other structures. firefighters made some progress against the fires yesterday but then a new one popped up in the san fernando valley. as of 6:00 a.m. today the

biggest fire was just 6% contained. and a release just out from the california insurance commissioner issuing a one-year moratorium on insurance cancellations and nonrenewals for homeowners close to the two biggest fires in los angeles. a look at the futures prior to the jobs report which is not too far off now, just under a half hour. treasuries which have seen the 10 year ever since that 50 basis point cut haven't seen a lot of pullback, almost 4.7. let's get to dom chu with a look at the premarket movers. >> good morning, joe and becky. we will start off with some of the premarket action with many of the biggest property and casualty insurers in the market. you've got shares of dow component travelers, also allstate, chubb, progressive are lower as estimates continue to be fluid with regard to things like insured losses, economic losses around those tragic wildfires and deadly wildfires in the los angeles area. on the insured losses side

analysts on wall street within the insurance industry are seeing a range of anywhere from 8 to 20 billion dollars worth of those insured losses, while some estimates for the total economic losses have gone as high as 100 to 150 billion dollars. now, regardless there's a lot of focus for investors on some of those insurance-related stocks so keep an eye on many of those. also moving on to some of the earnings stories this morning, shares of delta airlines flying high up by nearly 7% after america's biggest airline by market value reported better than expected profits and rep nus. it also gave an upbeat forecast saying it expects 2025 to be its most profitable year in its history thanks in part to continued demand for premium seats and services. so delta airlines is up big on that. we will end on walgreens, shares of the retail pharmacy are soaring by just around maybe 11% or so after it also reported better than expected quarterly profits and revenues showing signs its turn around efforts may be yielding fruit at this

point. it was also helped with better results in the retail pharmacy. the deal story of the day constellation energy shares up you can see by about 15% as it is official now because the big utility power generation company is going to acquire privately held cal pine for roughly $16.4 billion, 26.6 if you factor in assumption of debt. it is expected to add $2 billion of free cash flow and deliver 20% of the earnings accretion in 2026. ceo joseph dominguez will be on later today, "squawk on the street," roughly 10:30 a.m. eastern time to discuss why the deal is happening. constellation has been a huge focus for investors, one of the best performers in the s&p last year, joe. i will send things back over to you. okay, dom, thank you. coming up at 8:30 eastern time we have the december jobs report. but next, a can't miss

interview with noted short seller andrew left. andrew left to go interview andrew left who has been charged by the government with fraud. this is the first time he's speaking publicly since those charges were revealed last summer. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪

welcome back to "squawk box." this morning activist and short seller andrew left was charged last summer with multiple counts of fraud. in july authorities accused left of manipulating the market and defrauding investors by making misleading statements about his positions in well-known stocks including nvidia, tesla and facebook. the sec and department of justice focused on how left publicly described his positions versus how he actually traded those stocks. joining me right now in an exclusive interview where he's speaking out publicly for the first time since those allegationes is andrew left, the founder of citron research. a lot of folks on wall street have been watching this case so i appreciate you very, very much. >> nice being here, andrew. >> let me just start with this,

a lot of lawyers tell their clients when there is a criminal trial and civil cases like this not to speak out before a case begins. why are you willing to even do that? >> my lawyer -- obviously i asked him, i said should i believe doing this? he said normally i would say no, andrew, but i know how you believe in your case and we believe in it, so go ahead and do it. the reason for me most importantly is obviously activist short seller andrew left, also i'm a father, i'm a member of the community and my name, i spent 20 some odd years building a name on wall street just to have it besmirched by this. i wanted to come on and speak my peace. >> before you speak your peace i want to know about the moment on a personal level, the moment that you were charged. did you know it was coming? what did it feel like and how do you feel now? >> okay. so the moment i was charged what's crazier is the moment the search warrant was issued was the day after the whole gamestop saga. you can imagine it was a wonderful week in my life.

and the -- >> sarcastically because it was not a wonderful week. >> no, of course. the three and a half four years from there on end i'm saying what am i being investigated for? what's this about? so when the actual indictment came down there was a sense of, oh, my god, i'm being indicted and i read it and a sense of relief saying, tesla? nvidia? facebook? wait. i shorted these stocks? and then, okay, if the government goes through tens of thousands of your emails and messages, you don't know what's going to be found. so when i read it there was a sense of relief. >> let's talk about whether you should have that relief or not because this is what the sec said, we uncovered what they're calling alleged bait and switch tactics which netted left and his farm $20 million and what they're calling ill gotten profits and we intend to hold left and his firm accountable for their actions. what they're effectively suggesting is you put oftentimes on twitter what you planned to do or what you were doing, and then after you tweeted about those things the allegation is

that you either sold out of those positions or did the opposite to some degree of what you were telling the public. >> i've never done the opposite. the opposite in my opinion would be if i told you to buy and i turned around and shorted the stock. it was risk management. anyone who trades stocks for a living know if you ave a position on you might trim it, might put stop loss orders in, might put limit orders if you are making money. most importantly they used the word "immediately." i traded immediately. but in some of these cases immediately was one day and in some of these cases immediately is six days, four days. for stocks that trade 50 million shares a day. it seems open this word "immediate." >> it does appear within a day, in some cases within an hour. no? >> of course. general electric years ago when they were on cnbc and called ge is a complete fraud i turned around and wrote a quick write-up why ge is not a fraud, up 300% since then.

stanley miller defended it. i put it out and luckily within that day the market also already realized it was wrong, the report, and i sold my stock and it was maybe an hour later. it was. >> how much do you think this is about not just saying i'm long something, but i'm long something and i have a particular price target on a stock? so i'm thinking about in the nvidia example, for example, you know, which was then trading at $144, you say we see $165 before we see $120. the department of justice says then you sold the position at a price of $150. >> think of how crazy that that's a criminal charge. i said -- the words unrealistic price targets. by the way, since that nvidia is up, i think, 3500%. the stock is $140. i said i think the stock will strayed at $160 and i sell it in the $150s. the whole concept of the tweet

was i said nvidia -- this was 2019 -- the leader in ai. i'm stus justing it before chatgpt. where is the investor protection. >> one of the examples is tesla. i want to raise that issue because there is an interesting irony which is that you sued tesla over the time when elon musk talked about taking the company private at $420. meaning he had put out a target on t it ultimately wasn't something that happened and how you think about that relative to your own situation. >> i didn't sue him. i was part of a case that i actually dropped out of that suit in the class action because at the time i was short tesla. i was the first tesla critic that changed tune on it. i took a lot of heat from it. actually i was fortunate enough to do it at the most pivotal moment of tesla's history which was q3 '18. two days before they reported i put out a 21-page report explaining why i was wrong on tesla, why tesla is a buy. >> right.

>> tesla pre released earnings, stock went higher, i made money, i sold my tesla stock and -- and that's the largest -- the tesla is the largest financial of all the charges, that's the largest one. me telling people to buy tesla in 2018. >> so i think there is a larger almost philosophical -- there is a legal question and a sill philosophical question about what you think the investor class should and should not be able to say publicly and aloud and what she should be disclosing on whether they even change their mind or change their position. >> that's a good question. so as long as my opinion i've never been accused by the sec or doj of ever lying about a company. i speak the truth about companies, my opinions are truthful. as for trading, everyone has to trade with their own risk tolerance. i can't tell you how to trade. i wish i had warren buffett's patience, you know, someone

else's trading acumen. can you imagine if this is true any guest on cnbc has to come on with their lawyer in the background because i'm sure people will be discussing nvidia 100 times today on tv and if they change their opinion in the next two days and they sell it are they commit ago criminal act? >> that's what i was going to ask you. i was going to ask you how you think about folks like rory kitty, for example, and you think about his circumstances meaning he seemed to move stocks materially at some point i think he's getting in and out of them when he puts up a meme and your circumstance. >> how about the millions of people a day who are on twitter, on reddit, how about the hundreds of guests you have on cnbc and they have to update their trading positions with their statements? >> this is an interesting issue about the first amendment, right, on one end which is your ability to go out and express an opinion, and the question of the distinction between expressing an opinion and the idea of manipulation, right? >> fair enough. >> how do you think about that? >> well, if your opinion is

based on fact, i will give you an exam, on the activist short campaigns that they discuss, all the four activist short campaigns are 09%, most are down 99%, three of four turned out to be complete frauds. okay. so i put out that information. is that my opinion or is it the fact that moves the market? that's the important thing. they don't accuse me ever of lying about companies. so it's not my opinion. if you put out fact and fact moves the market, that's not manipulation. >> what about sharing such information or opinions that you plan to share publicly with others and other hedge funds, if you will, prior to doing it so that they can get in on the action, if you will, in advance? that's part of this as well. >> one of the charges or counts in there or background information is that i collaborate with hedge funds. >> correct. that's what i'm referring to. >> i think it's well-known that many activist short sellers do collaborate with hedge funds. if you want to get good information out there it takes a collaborative effort.

you won a an emmy two years ago, did you not have a producer or a writer on there? you collaborated. but you won the emmy. so i put out a report. did i have people help me with research on it? of course. >> but i guess the question is if they know that you're planning to put out a report at 8:00 in the morning and that they then plan to trade on that if they could at 8:02 in the morning, is that a form of manipulation? is that a form of insider information even though it's not -- i mean, you don't represent an insider. this is the very interesting sort of -- >> i'm not a lawyer so i'm not going to opine on that. that's not one of the charges. >> charges, per se. >> that's not one of the charges. if someone does that, the market is a caveat -- i mean, if you did that with gamestop you would have lost money. the market has a mind of its own. >> right. >> there is no secret button. >> one of the charges does relate to this idea that you have a research firm on one end and a hedge fund on another and that there has been misrepresentation of what all of

that is. >> i don't see -- you know, again, that's not one of the charges. it's just background information to put in there to kind of soil but i don't know if it will harm my reputation. i ran a hedge fund, i was the investor of the hedge fund, everything is disclosed, i have disclaimers, the same disclaimers that every other activist short seller, many analyst analysts still on cnbc. what's the there there? is the information that i put out to the market true? yes. have they ever said i put out information that's not true? no. let the market decide on it. >> when you think about what this case is about do you think there's something else going on here, meaning do you think there is an effort to chill the short selling universe? i know there is a lot of short sellers out there that are watching this case super carefully. >> of course. it shouldn't just be short sellers it should be everyone. every single guest on cnbc has to watch this. i think that's behind this is initially, you know, short sellers have been a thing of hollywood folklore, what are the short sellers going to do?

i think there was a mandate to somehow investigate short sellers. i was the one they went to. they went through everything to see was there insider trader? was there some form of collusion? was there naked short selling? any of these things. did i try to plant something in a company? nothing. >> what do you think about using -- i mean, you talked about coming on our air, for example, or talking to a newspaper reporter or taking o twitter. how has social media do you think changed this and do you think there should be different rules? >> i mean, social media has really leveled the playing field of information in the stock market because now people see short edge risk, people know how to deal with short reports what's valid and not valid. it's such a complex adaptive system the stock market and social media is definitely a part of it but so is analysis, so is television. it just all goes into the salad and at the end we just get price discovery. >> one of the things that the

s.e. ceo has talked about is creating some kind of restrictions in terps of days -- if you were going to announce something and be able to get out of it, how would that change the business for you? >> i mean, that's foolish. it's a crazy thought that you can -- if you publish an opinion you can't trade it for five days? does that include investment banks? what if the stock -- gamestop, i couldn't cover for five days? it just doesn't make sense. for anyone who trades stocks understands the fact that that doesn't make sense. >> we do have a new president coming into office in the next couple of days. i'm curious if you think that could actually change the outcome of your case? do you think that this administration is going to continue to pursue the case both on the criminal side of it and on the civil side of it and do you think that the s.e.c. is going to think about these issues differently? >> i mean, the case is out there so it's already been filed. you know, with the new administration comes new people at the doj and the s.e.c. i don't look at my case as being a partisan case, but i think the new administration puts a new

set of perspectives, priorities within the government. >> right. >> and with that i just want fresh eyes to look at it fair and objectively and look at this case for what it is and say, oh, there's no there there. that's what i'm looking forward to. >> but i imagine your hope even by talk about this here is that you're hoping that there are fresh eyes that look at this case and look at it differently, no? >> i mean, of course. like i said, i'm not looking for this being a partisan issue like, oh, now this new administration favors this type of behavior. this type of behavior is fine in any administration, i'm putting honest information in the marketplace. >> just on a very personal level how scared are you? and i ask that -- no, i ask that because you have a great confidence to you and we've talked for many years and you've been on the air talking about all sorts of things over the years, but, you know, if you were to lose this case, this could include prison. >> of course. i trust the system. i really do. and it's unfortunate what i'm dealing with and i trust my

legal team, i trust the judges, i trust the system that in the long run i'm very fortunate that i have the resources to deal with this. but i think in the long run i trust our system and i think it's going to work. >> andrew left, thank you for coming on this morning. appreciate it very much. >> thank you. >> we look forward to following the progress of the case. joe, back to you. >> thanks, andrew. andrews. coming up the december jobs report, economists expecting an addition of 155,000 jobs. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

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up next, the number of the morning. we will bring you the december jobs report. this is coming right after this quick break. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're just a few minutes away from the labor department's december employment report ahead of the number let's bring in our jobs panel, sara malek, head of

equities and fixed income at nuveen. ben harris, a former treasury official in the biden the brookings institute and our own steve liesman and rick santelli. steve, did we get your estimate. >> consensus 155, i think it's interesting whether or not there's some down side weakness that reignites this idea that maybe the fed might cut in the first half of the year. >> rick, i think anything that a lays inflation fears -- what what are you thinking? >> if we don't get negative job growth i agree with you, i think inflation issues and general supply debt issues around the globe are going to take preference. my guess on this number would be close to steve's, right around 160,000, close to expectations.

i pay particularly close attention to average hourly earnings. i think that that gives us some types of glimpse into the topics of inflation. it isn't correlated there, but obviously if the incomes remain on the high side, there's going to be an issue potentially down the road to continue to monitor higher wages and that all feeds through into higher prices. >> all right. here we go. nonfarm payrolls for the month of december on our jobs, jobs, jobs report, way hot, 256,000. >> wow. >> what a shocker. 212,000 on last week's revised 227,000, but let's look at two weeks' worth. if we get two weeks' worth of revisions we are looking at down 8,000, down 8,000. now, 256, we have to see when that comps to. that would be the comp of march of last year when it was

310,000. which means it would be the second best basically going back to that point. now, let's look at some of the important internals, shall we? average hourly earnings up 0.3, up 0.3. we break that -- up 0.4, up 0.4 was what we had been running. if you look at the average hourly earnings year over year we broke the 0.4, we are now down to 3.9 which in some ways may be good news, i'd like to see people make more wages, but we know we've been feeding the beast with regard to income and higher prices. 3.9 equates to april of last year to find a lower you have to go all the way back to march which i think is pretty interesting all in all. if we look at average hourly workweek, 34.3. 34.3 basically has been where it has been most of last year. if we look at the underemployment rate, 62.5 exactly as expected -- i'm sorry, i'm sorry, that was the

labor force participation rate. 62.5. it has been hovering at that level, joe, 62.5 -- 62.6 was october of last year, last year's complete high water mark was 62.7. the lowest of last year was 62.5. just to put a face on 62.5 and now the underemployment rate known as u-6, 7.5%, that is way down from 7.8 which became revised through 7.7. 7.5 would be the lowest going back to june of last year. so pretty decent news there. the market speaks for itself. what did it concentrate on? all the numbers i brought out, drop it wages, the underemployment rate, the actual employment rate u-3 and it looks at the job creation of 256,000. we zoomed up all the way up to 4.77 plus on the 10, we zoomed up all the way near -- near 5%

in a 30 year bond literally 4.998. that is something to pay very close attention to because we haven't traded over 5% in the 30 year bond since the fall of 2023 and we see the pre opening equity markets took a huge ding, so we need to monitor not only are we not seeing what fed officials really thought would be a slower jobs market, as you pointed out we see sticky inflation and much of the fed speak last week was, well, we think one to two cuts is still in the cards. if the year develops as we think it will, meaning conforming to dot plots, this doesn't look like it's dot plotting very normally against what we saw in the last meeting. back to the panel. >> okay. thanks, rick. let's bring in our jobs panel, sara, ben and allison. steve, we just -- how long ago were you -- you were sitting over here, that was today -- >> i was on the other side there

then. >> i told you i was -- i really was hoping for a really crappy number. >> yeah. >> and it's not so much that -- that i think that that would mean more cuts or a likelihood of more cuts, i just think it would start to make you think that we don't have to worry about inflation so much. but when things like this are happening, inflation, which is already, you know -- i'm not talking about tariffs necessarily and i'm not talking about immigration necessarily, but add those in, but just where we are just from what's remaining from what the fed was trying to do in the first place. we weren't there yet when they started cutting and it doesn't seem like we're there and the markets do not like this and there goes the 10 year and the 30 year. why am i wrong? >> it's like you come home and your daughter kisses you and you say, i'm afraid you're not going to love me in the future. i mean, right now, joe, you've got really good jobs numbers. >> you're just arguing, you're

arguing with the markets. >> i'm not -- >> why is it happening then? just talk about what is. >> first, you're right. you're right in the sense that the fed had pushed aside this notion that employment was a potential source of inflation. these kind of numbers kind of bring it back in the sense that the payroll numbers themselves are hot, unemployment rate has been, you know, dancing around this 4.1, 4.2 number, but i don't want to awfulize this number, joe. >> you don't have to. what is the market saying? >> i am going to argue -- >> no cuts? no cuts? >> i think it's no cuts. i think that's right. but we're putting a lot of people to work, we reduced the number of long term unemployed, we have a little -- >> we always look jobs. always that argument. there's always the argument that we do want people working, we want people getting -- >> i don't let wall street tell me what the right number f employment is. >> sometimes you do. depends on the number.

>> that is a cynical perspective. >> it is, but we -- >> it's good. people with jobs. >> we face what we face. sara, are we overheat -- are we seeing the kind of economic activity that would say, yes, you were right, jay powell, to cut and, yes, we need to cutmore? >> well, i think, first of all, when jay first cut by 50 basis points in december they might have been a little bit overly optimistic on the view that the employment markets were weakening which obviously they're not. i think there's three factors that determine the path of the markets from here, that is what does the fed do, how much tighter conditions get and market valuations starting with the fed. we are already down from hoping for four rate cuts this year to two and i think today's number will take us well below two to one, zero or maybe even talking about rate hikes. tighter conditions are an issue for equity markets. higher yields are a headwinds for the market and also stronger dollar. let's talk about market

valuations. we are currently trading at about 90% versus history in terms of a premium for the s&p 500. so what do we have to take us forward from here this year? we can't rely on valuation, expansion, we're going to need to rely on earnings growth and can we get that? we can probably get about 6 to 7% earnings growth on the s&p that takes us -- for the bulls to about 6,400 on the s&p if everything works out just for earnings growth which is basically kind of what we have to rely on here because valuations will have a tough time expanding through the s&p. >> ben? >> yeah, so i think that the big number here is not the payroll number which is coming in much hotter than a lot of analysts expected, but the big number here is the u-3 and the u-6, seeing increased tightness in the labor market. this isn't just in isolation or on the cusp of a new administration, we are on the cusp of a new administration which has pledged a very different immigration policy than the one we've seen for the past four years. i think this makes the fed's job harder. the fed will have to again start

worrying about wage price spirals and labor migration. in the absence of that this is probably good news, more jobs for americans, rising wages, but there is a real concern about the labor market becoming too tight. >> all right. allison, from your -- from where you're sitting, what do you think? >> i mean, i'm with steve. this is, you know, a good report. i mean, it might not be what the market wants, but, you know, it means people have jobs. i'm starting to just think this is a healthy labor market and we might have to come to terms with the fact that any way inflation isn't as low as the fed would like, this might just be where inflation is and where our new equilibrium rate of inflation which is bad news for the fed because i think they are anxious to cut so they could tell the story we've gotten inflation back down to target. >> they already cut. >> they want to keep cutting.

>> i know. they can make mistakes, allison. >> yeah, i think that's right. >> go ahead, allison. sorry. >> well, i think they were trying to tell the story we beat inflation, we're credible and now it looks like that last half mile isn't going anywhere and i think there's a lot of inflationary pressure in the pike next year even if the trump administration is successful it will boost growth and potentially inflation, too, and that the fed might be in a bad position of saying we've never made our target, we were below and above target but since we've had a target when has inflation ever been 2? >> allison, i don't -- these things matter is i guess what i'm saying. if we saw -- no one is saying we're going back to jimmy carter years and, you know, we had a funeral yesterday, but it matters if you don't anticipate properly like when they stayed at zero too long, you can make the same mistake coming down too quickly. and that's what the markets, i think, is thinking, not just no

cuts, but you really have -- this could be -- they could be raising by the end of the year. >> i think that's looking likely. i mean, like i said, i think we're right that maybe one cut is the best case scenario and i think that's highly unlikely, unless, this would be worse, there is a big economic shock that causes a recession, then they would probably cut but i don't think anybody wants that. >> the big story in the number is the 231 in the private sector. this is private sector job. >> private sector jobs. i'd love to bring rick in just to see if allison is right on this, rick, if those are the last cuts we've seen, if maybe there's one more and if this is just the new reality, healthy economy, great, how will the bond market react? right now you are talking about the 10 year liz cheney at 4.8%. >> i think the bond market will act exactly the way it's been acting. i think longer duration, 10s, 20s and 30s, maybe even 7s are going to be more sticky.

i think the yield surf curve is continue to steepen. i wouldn't be shocked to see us in the 75 to 80 basis point range rather quickly by midyear. i do believe that issuance will be a big deal. everybody keeps bringing up the uk. well, the uk doesn't have the reserve currency, they have quite a bit of debt, they will have quite a bit of i wish ssuad their rates are moving higher as well. i think all of this will remain exactly the way it is. i don't understand why there should be many question marks. the question marks, becky, arise because no one wants to acknowledge the truth that's right in front of us. the economy, even with all the seasonal issues, i don't trust these job numbers, but they're still hot. i think that you're going to see the economy chugging along better than the fed expected, much better than an overseas competition, we will continue to see export economies not convert to consumption economies which makes trade deficits something important to pay attention to.

you know, we've been saying for decades china needs to be more consumption driven but they're not and they're going to be stimulating even more. there's more talk they will support their currency. all of this is going to lead to firm pressure on u.s. rates. the good news it's also going to draw in capital. so i think there is a way to coexist with a more positive equity market with rising rates as long as the capital keeps coming in. but the big key is going to be how the market looks at the new administration, their programs and how inflation and spending ultimately conforms to try to mold these deficits into something more manageable. >> sara, we had great rising equity prices for two years until six weeks ago and this is -- i mean, is that the start -- you don't think that's the start of anything? i mean, suddenly these numbers like this and -- are starting to -- i don't know, this is what was looming for maybe why market participants weren't as friendly towards the equity markets.

maybe it was this. >> well, first of all, if we look under the hood of what's been happening since the s&p has gone off peak levels, the equal weighted s&p is about twice as bad as the s&p in general. so what's that telling you? tech has been the leader for this cycle and tech is what struggles as rates continue to rise. so i don't think we can count on tech to lead from here. so i think that's a negative for the s&p 500. second is all this talk about yields and what does that mean for the equities markets? equities can handle a spike in yields, if it's because of incrementally stronger economic growth, but if the yields are rising because of sticky inflation and with average hourly earnings up i think inflation is still sticky we will see that next week with cpi and ppi and if rates are raising, that's where equities struggle. that's why today even with a strong employment market we're seen equities continue to struggle. they're saying that yields are spiking because inflation is here to stay because the fed is

going to become incrementally more hawkish than they already are. >> ben, additional thoughts? we've got some time. >> yeah, so i think that -- i mean, i agree with everything that was just said, but moving forward over the course of the year i think markets are waiting with bated breath to see what's going to happen with the reconciliation bill. what's baked into market expectations and what drove that 100 bps increase in advance of the election is an expectation of zero fiscal stimulus, low fiscal stimulus, a continuation of the tcja. if we start to see signals that the trump administration and congressional republicans are going to take on a lot more debt than markets thought, i mean, it's off to the races with respect to the long end of the curve. we don't know what's going to come out of the reconciliation bill, the expectation is it's going to be pretty much just current tax policy, but if the trump administration decide to say, use a trillion dollars in extra revenue from tariffs and use that to impose -- or to grant further tax cuts then you're getting a lot more

issuance, i think you will see more turmoil in the bond markets. >> steve, what's up? >> a couple other data points here. the job growth was in the places we've seen t health care which was 69 -- health care, social assistance 70,000, leisure and hospitality up 43,000. interesting to see retail did quite as well as it did, north of, i think, 40,000 there. and like i said these were private sector, there were 33,000 government jobs, i think that's important. we're working on just getting the probabilities up, the notion of whether or not -- where the market is in terms of pricing in rate cuts for the rest of the year. >> i have to think about that every time i say it. >> you made me mess up there. >> you're right. >> a little freudian there. >> you should be saying hike. >> i saw the probability of that second cut is way down now. i don't know if we have it, but it was something -- >> it was 50% this morning.

no, i'm sorry, it was -- >> i can count it up live on national television. 33, 35 -- it's about -- it's below 40% i think we can say right now so that's down 10 points. the second cut coming out, the fed is not going to cut with this hot job market. i would leave with the following question, from where are you more likely to extract profit as an s&p 500 company? from 250,000 more employed or from 50 fewer basis points on the 10 year? >> i want to ask allison whether you can -- can we justify higher stock prices because of better economic activity that's not inflationary? >> well, maybe at 15% corporate tax rate could do it, some regulation. i mean, i think that would be the best case scenario because that would actually bring earnings up. i think what's interesting is the longer part of the curve has been going up even before this

jobs report. i think 2025 is going to be the year we realize that rates weren't high to fight inflation, rates might just be higher forever or for the foreseeable future. >> sara, you're still bullish. s&p, everything -- you wouldn't buy bonds, would you? duration, look for areas with strong fundamentals like municipal bonds, still the states are strong because of the strong economy, are tax exempt so you can benefit in air area. generally s&p target is 6,400 based purely on earnings growth. it won't be a year like the past few years where equities were up 20%. i think it will be a struggle to get to that 6,400 price target. between waiting for the new administration and the i'm pa packet of taxes, tariffs and regulation and this concern over a hawkish fed and inflation that's here to stay and can we get incrementally stronger economic growth to support equities given the spike in

yields, i think that will be a volatile year, it's going to be a long struggle to pull out that 6%, 7% return on the s&p versus what we've seen the past two years. >> rick, do you think that the worry about inflation, is it worry about trump's policies and inflation and immigration, or is it still what's left in the system that the fed thought was -- was gone but was really there the whole time? >> it's the latter with fear of the former. it's what's already in the system and the unknown of what may be in the system. you know, things like s.a.l.t., all of these will have huge ramifications, some of those promises. one thing i'd like to point out, you know, i've been watching these markets for a long time. usually when you get a number like this that's a bit of an outlier you get some volatility. if you show an intraday on 10s and 30 year yields right now, they have moved up and stuck like glue right on the high yield low price. no volatility to speak of. i think that's something to pay

close attention to and i think what it tells me is that we will close above 5% in the 30 year bond today. >> i mean, steve, if you were hoping -- if you were hoping for lower mortgage rates and hoping for some relief in terms of -- you're like the fed tried to help, it's like next time don't help me. >> do you think rates would be lower -- >> i don't know. what do you think, rich? do you think -- all they've done is gone up since the 50 basis point cut. >> i don't know about that, but maybe. >> is it a combination. >> i don't know that it would have made a huge difference. to me the big difference is the remnants of qe, the notion should it ever come back, the residual size of the balance sheet. the only way you're going to make any significant difference trying to challenge these long rates is to manage them or manipulate them and i think the fed learned its lesson. i don't think they're going to touch that. i still say that there's more simmering to the upside on these rates in a post-qe world with sticky inflation. >> the one question we have to

think about is whether or not the job market itself is a source of inflation. i will just point out it doesn't make it right that powell has repeatedly said he doesn't see employment as the source of inflation. >> a reflection of a stronger economy. >> yes, and a stronger economy doesn't necessarily mean it's inflationary. it means it would be less disinflation. >> i want to go back -- >> i want to make one more point. if you have productivity rising at a higher rate you can afford to pay people more, also you end up having a higher rate of capital -- i mean, look at these investments we're talking about every day that is putting demand on capital and perhaps also the fiscal side demand for capital creates a storm that raises yields and makes it so that we are headed towards that 5% number. >> i will just say wages according to the bank of america survey that we talked about this morning did show an increase and people were spending that money. so spending momentum went along with that. we will see. >> thanks to our -- >> can you smile a little bit,

joe, on this. come on, smile. 256, baby. it's a good number. >> i'm trying. thanks to our -- >> do you have a canker sore or something? >> no. thanks. you? >> no, i'm fine. >> how is your foot fungus? >> i didn't ask you about that. >> sara, ben, allison, rick and steve. >> other physical maladies we may ask about. >> are you still constipated. >> this awkward moment brought to you by -- >> you. you did that one, steve. >> i do it once in awhile. >> all right. joining us right now for insights on what the new jobs data could mean for the fed and its rate decisions this year is roger ferguson, former fed vice-chairman, also a cnbc contributor. roger, tell me what the fed thinks about this number. >> i think the fed thinks about it exactly how you've been talking about it which is good news, the labor market they had feared was softening, appears not to be.

challenging news, you know, the anecdote the thought that inflation is going to continue to come down now is very much questioned and i think, as i said the last time we were on, the probability of them getting off two cuts next year dr osh, i'm sorry, this year seems to be very, very mud at this stage. good news is good news and good news is challenging news. >> what about the news that the ten year is now sitting at almost 4.8%? >> i think the so year and the bond market in general is doing what they're supposed to do. in in this market where we're expecting continued private sector demand for credit, continued government demand for credit both in u.s. and around the world, that way that gets equilibrated is higher interest rates. i think that's a reflection of the market doing what it is supposed to do, which is telling a supply and demand story. you will need higher rates to bring savings into these markets and that's exactly what we're

getting. i don't think there's a way to manage that. i think that's the outcome. of the way the market sees the future. >> one of our guests allison was mentioning this could be the new reality. is this the new, new normal? higher interest rates? higher levels? the 30 year is almost at 5%. >> look, i think it goes back to a point that i think joe and i talked about a couple of shows ago which is the allusive so-called r star and neutral rate higher because we have new demands for capital, because we have new technologies that might lead to greater productivity. so perhaps we should get used to this. not because it's a bad thing, but because it shows that there is many, many productive uses of capital and hopefully that plays through into productivity increases which allow for, you know, companies to be more productive. so net-net i think this probably is a new normal and we should get used to the fact that, you

know, we're not going to see a dramatic movement down in long rates anytime soon. >> should we also think that a new reality is inflation running above trend? >> i think so. one of the things i've said i think a few times here is i've been quite concerned inflation actually is as sticky as it appears to be. some of what's driving that is supply and demand imbalances in housing, for example, and it's really hard to fix that. you know, we have an administration coming in that seems to be leaning more towards things that appear to be likely to be inflationary. so, you know, the 2% target may prove to be allusive, or to put it another way to get to the 2% target may require the fed to really crunch the economy and that is a tough, tough tradeoff for them to deal with at this stage, i believe. >> okay. roger, you always speak so plainly, that's a lot of things that have been circulating that

they wouldn't necessarily expect to hear a former fed official saying outright like this, but you are always with us to interpret this stuff and we really appreciate it. roger ferguson. thank you. well, this isn't last long, did it? >> andrew, breaking news. >> right now disney, fox, warner brothers, discovery they are now announcing they're discontinuing their joint venture venu sports. in a statement they're saying after careful consideration we've agreed to discontinue venu sports joint venture and not launch the joint venture. we determined to focus on existing products and distribution channels. all of this comes after the decision earlier this week, frankly, for disney to effectively buy fubo, which is -- they were in a lawsuit over over this very issue raises lots of questions about what

happens next in all of this. there was an argument to be made that disney was buying fubo in part so that this venue deal could move forward but perhaps maybe this puts disney in an even stronger position to some degree and that all of these sports pro dults might ultimately come through fubo. we don't know that right now but that may be where this is all headed given they will be merging that service with hulu tv live which competes with youtube tv. a big twist in an ongoing soap opera and drama and we will have to try to get a better sense to understand what it all means, guys. >> yeah, was this a concern from the leagues because the leagues didn't want this to happen? was this a concern from other potential competitors who would have taken up and said, okay, if the lawsuit worked from that perspective was it regulatory concerns? i mean, bizarre to see this announcement. >> things happen so fast.

things happen to fast. when it was happening it was like, well, what about nbc, why aren't we part of this? now i don't care whether nbc is part, is not -- >> see, now i'm not sure i read this way, guys. i think there is an outside possibility that this is actually disney which is now going to be in a much stronger position given not just the espn of it that we can fold into this service -- >> i never thought this was going to happen. >> but fubo can ultimately be -- be the venue, if you will, and it actually puts disney in a much better position. i don't know if that's actually what's leading to this. >> or if it was just squabbling between the partners not being able to figure out -- it's like -- >> they worked so hard on this. >> rich greenfield -- >> they made people add and alienated people left and right and it was all for within six months things can change that much on the landscape that it just -- never mind. >> you know, that may tell you

something about the landscape today. >> that's what i mean, the landscape is changing -- changing so quickly. i don't know. how many streaming things am i going to have, sorkin? can you tell me? >> all of them. >> i think you will have all of them or none of them or some of them. >> a bundle? i didn't want that thing that they were putting together i don't think. i didn't even know they came up with the name. >> i just found out about the name earlier. >> when did they -- they came up with the name a week before they said never mind. >> the other piece, though, i will say to this, if fubo becomes sort of the play with hulu tv live, is that it actually may give both disney and the entire sort of cable ecosystem a longer tail and more opportunity in part because it keeps the -- potentially could keep the bundle together longer. i mean, that's one of the arguments in favor of youtube t vcht and all the folks that are trying to -- trying to put these things together. it's going to be very interesting to watch and

understand what's really happened behind the scenes here. how much this improves or doesn't improve the lot of life, for example, for warner brothers, discovery. obviously they don't have the nba anymore, that also potentially could have weighed on where this whole thing were to go. i think there is a whole bunch of pieces that we have to get under the covers of. >> fubo was worth less than a billion dollars earlier this week. it's moving up again today another 6% or something. now it's got a market cap of more than $1.8 billion. that was kind of written off. take a look at where that stock was just a week ago. >> let's get -- while we have time let's get a final check on the markets. we had a great jobs report so the dow is down 400 points. 334 points, down 230 on the nasdaq in the perverse world that really sometimes is wall street. there are a lot of -- you know, there are tailwinds and headwinds to everything we talk about. any hopes for -- what were we supposed -- we were going to get four or five rate cuts at one

point, now we are down to two, now we are down to one and we actually just talked about the possibility that there could be zero and by the end of the year who knows with, you know, tariffs and immigration. you could actually be seeing interest rate hikes if inflation stays -- stays hot. all right. andrew, he's back for this. we'll see you on monday. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." carl quintinnia. the december jobs print is strongest in nearly a year. minimal revisions. 30-year cracks 5% for the first time since 2023. the road map begins with the jobs number the fed mi