tv Mad Money CNBC January 10, 2025 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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winners. i think it's something you want in 2025. >> steve grasso? >> okta, the o in my acronym we haven't unveiled yet. it's one letter. >> oh, the suspense. >> can i get a vowel? vowel? my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> i'm trying to save you money here. my job is not just to explain but to put in context so you can understand it. call me. when i first heard the idea stocks could go down in response to great job growth, i thought
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it was absurd. who hopes for higher unemployment? the answer, people who own stocks, that's who. at least when they are worried about interest rates. that's how you get a day like today. the labor report showed we created more jobs than expected in december. dow tumbled 689 points. nasdaq plummeting. there are two sides to the story. given i was worried about a hard landing six months ago, when i saw strong job growth i was grateful. we are in a moment where that means nothing. investors were looking for slower job growth, lower long-term interest rates and rate cuts from the fed. for them, the disappointment was palpable. the stocks sold. this isn't unusual. the bond market is bigger than the stock market. when rates go up, stocks tend to
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go down. that's what happened today. the stock market won't improve until interest rates go down. we might get better stocks, but not a better stock market. which is why so many investors are rooting for a weaker economy. makes the fed look better. makes you feel better that rates aren't such big competition to stock, which they are getting to be. look at the game plan for next week with an eye towards seeing something positive to find the bull market somewhere. on monday, we hope to get good news out of the wildfire situation. it is discon concerting there c be anything good coming out of the fires. like any natural disaster, our governments and insurance companies try to get things on a better footing. that means an expanded economy in the areas hit. i think you will hear about that pretty soon. i profiteering off this.
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people have to rebuild. some of the retailers went up. but they can go up further. look for the possibility. when the insurance checks come in and the government starts spending money, they will go toward rebuilding. how about the other side of the trade? i'm talking about earnings. can great earnings triumph over a sour bond market? we will find out. this is a week we associate with bank earnings. whether they make the wrong bets, the stocks can take hits. when the bond portfolios are good like today, they can withstand or profit from higher rates. let's not write these stocks off. before we get to the banks, we need to talk about kb homes. a significance presence in california. houses get burned down, it might be good for the home builders. there's a mismatch here. many of the homes are very expensive. that's not kb's niche. it makes the homes where higher mortgage rates really hurt
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sales. the possibility of a draconian immigration policy from the trump administration will hurt the home builders in two ways. they have to pay higher wages. they will have fewer customers. kb homes has put up good numbers during this great period for housing, i fear this could end up on the canvas. i hope to dispel gloom when i take a trip out west to the jp morgan health care conference. i will do my best to bring you a highlight reel of the most important presenters. get ready to be dazzled with ies regardless of the economy. the drugs are hostage to interest rates. tuesday, we have the producer price index along with the consumer price index on wednesday. it needs to come in cooler if there's any hope interest rates could reverse and the fed can regain some of its lost credibility. we know there was no need to cut in a hurry.
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it's possible the numbers will be cooler than the labor report but not enough for today's losses. wednesday, the bank earnings. they will get a boost from higher rates in the form of offering cds that offer lower rates than the banks can earn by sticking your money in the bond market. it's a windfall. it could make the stocks worth owning. on wednesday, we will hear from jp morgan, citi group. given the environment has improved for mergers and acquisitions, we could have some excellent forecasts. i like these stocks. they are off their highs with low multiples. could it be an opportunity? i think so. we have been buying them because a robust economy produces the best results for these companies regardless of the bond market or fed. thursday, we have more of the same. this time bank of america, morgan stanley and pnc financial. i expect these to be good.
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pnc will probably be the best. it's a cult bank stock. the biggest health insurer, unitedhealth group reports. it was in the news after its executive was murdered. they have strong earnings. they got good news from medicare this evening. they are no longer dealing with the post-covid hangover. i suspect unh will have an excellent quarter. what can i say? these stocks probably are going to work. the close, results from one of my favorite companies, jb hunt. i see this as a barometer business. it breaks down the strong and weak parts of the economy line by line by line. look at the positive reaction to delta this morning. keep in mind when you get strong earnings like from delta, they can indeed transcend the market's negative gravitational pull. finished up 9%.
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on friday, i'm watching for slb. that's we see rising oil prices. that's not enough to turn around the fortunes. it has been down in the dumps for a year and four months. i think the company might give us a more positive forecast given there's more drilling optimism around even as it's an international company. if you are a bull or trying to make sense of the market that goes down on good news, all i can say is that the stock market may seem like it's reacting inappropriately until you see the bond market. explain everything by the direction of interest rates. that's the key to determine the stock market. even as there are pockets of positivity that can escape the bond market's tyranny. >> caller: i tell you, the way the markets are these days, i'm
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glad i'm an investing club money. >> thank you. i feel for any of the losses that come about. i do make mistakes. i own the mistakes. most importantly, i do the best i can. how can i help you? >> caller: i'm calling today about a utility stock that sold a minority stake in some transmission lines businesses. it's in a couple of states. it's valued at $2.82 billion. it's going go a long ways towards offsetting about $5.5 billion in equity financing until 2029. as an investor, how should we look at this move? >> i think, there's a consistent way to judge businesses. bill fuhrman is very smart. it only yields 4%. it's hostage to the bond market. it has more downside at 16 times earnings.
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>> caller: thank you so much for guidance with investing strategies which are profitable as of now. >> you are very, very kind. >> caller: thank you so much. it is in the news that there will be a new facility for nucor in utah which will generate about 200 full-time jobs. it's about to complete similar production facilities in several other places. nucor stock had gone as high as $160. now it has fallen about $118. >> it did go up to $200. what happened here is very interesting. they bought back a ton of stock higher. that was ill-advised. then the mexican -- let's say china used what's known as
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transshipments, dumping steel through mexico into our country, depressing our prices. that's what's hurt nucor. that may not be done until president-elect trump comes in and says, no more chinese steel from anywhere. nucor stock is going to take off like a rocket. interest rates are what's controlling the stock market. we don't want their control. rates are going higher. our job is to find inflation-proof pockets of positivity to escape. it's not easy. we will have charts later on that gives you a nice place to look. i'm circling back to the charts to see whether we can have a tech rebound. after this week's market action, i will break down a thesis, see how much stands. ahead of the nfl playoffs, could draft the draftkings be a touchdown? i took this personally, consolation sank. let's speak to the ceo to see if
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there's any turnaround, let's say, on tap. stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second. follow 6@jimcramer on x. have a question, tweet cramer. send jim an email. or give us a call. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. ehh... hmm. oh, that's very, uh... - right? - mmm... this store doesn't have agentforce, so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails.
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bogue, for all those d making it big out there... ...shouldn't your mobile service be able to keep up with you? get wifi speeds up to a gig at home and on the go. introducing powerboost, only from xfinity mobile. now that's big. earlier this week we ran an off the charts segment highlighting the first woman on the active trader desk and director of research.
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she's had a good track record, pounding the table in mid october right before the market caught fire, even though we didn't know trump would win the election and spark a monitor rally. the charts were signaling something to her. made everybody a lot of money. when we spoke to her earlier this week, she said it looked like we were headed for another narrow tech-led rally. like what we experienced last year. but a very big but, she warned us this was only on the table if the averages could hold above some key levels on the weekly chart. the s&p and nasdaq had to clear certain prices as of today's close or else her outlook would become a lot more negative. you know what i had to do? to get you to be up to date, i had to circumstance le back to . data sigg nifying inflation is problem. it took a lot of positive charts
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and turned them upside down. it makes sense. a strong job market, strong number, harder for the fed to cut rates. it tells us the bond market traders have been right to sell treasuries, pushing up long-term interest rates. it's the reason why the averages got obliterated today. these key support levels she mentioned earlier, we broke down below almost all of them. i had to go back to her, because i know you want to hear what we have to say about the breakdowns she feared. put simply, you bet we did. we are worried. it changes almost everything. not in a good way. let's go over them. let's go back. how exactly do the charts read? why don't we start with the weekly chart, the xlk, technology select fund. tech remains the most important group fwh this market. it's the largest. she was hoping the xlk would hold above 237. that was the plan. or even 233, which is where the
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13-week moving average currently stands. she likes to watch 13, 20, 40 week. in this business, the quarter is the basic unit of measurement. it's broken down below the key supports. it's at 228. we don't want to see that. very, very negative. a few days ago it looked like it could make a bullish crossover down here. that's where the black line crosses above the red line down at the bottom. guess what? these crossovers are incredibly reliable buy or sell signals. unfortunately, with today's beatdown this has made a bearish crossover. this is a sell signal. she worries it could be headed to 225. that's the next floor of support. that's the 26-week or purple line. in other words, happy days are not here again for tech as a whole.
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we went from hopefully bullish to definitely bearish. how about the daily chart on the s&p 500? that picture got worse, too. the post-elect gap had been acting as a key support level for this chart. that was great. we were basically hanging on in there at the upper end of the gap. she was hoping we would remain above 5850. it was the key level. that was the weekly high before the post-election gap up. we failed to do so. next level of support is 5783. that's down 44 points, 5783, you can see. down 44 points from today's close. whether you add in the fact that the s&p didn't make a bullish crossover right down here, it's a lot less encouraging than it was on tuesday. she doesn't like that the s&p has fallen below the cloud. right there.
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this is a technical tool that combines moving averages to give you a one glance read of the situation. that read has turned very negative. the s&p 500 is not looking great, especially when you remember tech has a huge weight here. after we failed to defend a key support level this week, she thinks it's possible we roll back the post-election rally, which would take us down to 5783. how about the s&p 500 weekly chart? unfortunately, the s&p broke down, and is below 5931. that was the floor support created by the 13-week moving average. whether something when something breaks the 13 week, right there, you have to become more bearish. 5931 is the new ceiling of resistance. especially after we just fell through the next level of support. what can i say? i know it's beleaguering.
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i have to show you these. they have changed from tuesday. we look at the s&p equal weight. it values every component equally. a great read on the index outside of tech. when you look at the s&p equal weight, you can see, a total house of pain. she was hoping that we would hold above the floor of support at the 26 week. well, look at that. it has broken below that. next level of support is 7015. the weight breaks down below at 6988. we have a huge problem. that's another bad news chart. however, there are some groups she believes in. for example, what is everybody in? magnificent seven. look at the mag seven. some groups are more resilient
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versus higher rates than others. you can see from this chart the mag seven, a great example. yes, that's why she's confident that they can survive higher rates. the mag seven will sell off when loan rates spike. but she points out the stocks bounce back faster than the rest of the market. they bounce back first. they can put up great earnings in a high interest rate environment. once we have earnings, she believes the mag seven will be back in rally mode. they have about a 5% downside cushion before they brush up against the 13 week. we have room here. it's nowhere near breaking through the key support level. i think that shows you that you should be focused on these. i totally agree with the possibility that the mag seven will be good. we have had so many inflation scares. we always fear the obituaries for the group. those are the moments you want to buy, not sell.
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this time, i don't think it will be any different. the bottom line, the charts interpreted suggest things have gotten more difficult for the s&p 500 this week. the non-tech component is doing worse. everything about the stock market deteriorates when treasury yields rocket higher. some groups can adapt to higher rates. you should be thinking about the mag seven, which tend to sell off along with everything else, and then bounce right back first. when we get to earnings season, i think they will be good. we can have a rally. it's a narrow tech-led rally. it will be more narrow than we thought a few days ago. no sugarcoating it. the charts turn negative this week. maybe arnings reports can turn things around. as of now, it seems unlikely. all i can say is i'm glad we checked back. i didn't want to leave you hanging. this decline did some real damage. the charts that were bullish are
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now -- "mad money" is back after the break. >> should investors get off the sidelines when it comes to draftkings? cramer is coaching you through the moves next. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust.
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if this year's playoffs are anything like last year, it could be very exciting, whether your team is in it or not. luckily, mine is. go birds. chances are a lot of you will watch at least one of the games this weekend. i think it's a way to make money off this, which brings me to the stock of draftkings. i'm not planning to give you gambling advice. i'm giving you a stock pick. i think there's a good case to buy draftkings. understand what's been happening with this one. it underperformed last year. it was doing great until the stock sold off hard in december. it posted solid results in november, there was one issue. all you people betting at home, you are winning too much. we experienced the most customer friendly stretch of nfl outcomes we have seen early in the fourth quarter. that causeed the company to take a revenue hit. the customer friendly outcomes have kept on coming.
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the favorites are winning at a higher rate. because more people bet on the favorites, it's costing them money. they have had a bad run of luck here. can it last? we haven't heard from these guys directly. earlier this week, a competitor, the owner of fanduel noted the 2024/2025 nfl season to date has been the most customer friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years. there we go. it's not just draftkings. things got ugly from december 12th to the end of the year. you better believe draftkings is having the same problem. now we know why it's pulling back. is there any advantage to buying it and hear headlines about the ridiculous bets you can put money on? like the color of the championship winning gatorade shower or length of the national anthem. the answer is yes. look how draftkings have done from the end of the year through
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the super bowl historically. in 2021, it rallies 37%. in 2022, it fell 15%. that was a terrible period for all stocks, especially growth stocks. in 2023, draftkings shot up 40% from new year's eve through the super bowl. the stock rallied another 28.5% in the week after the super bowl. last year, it gained 23% from new year's eve through the super bowl. small sample size. but three out of four, that ain't bad. this worked out ed out great l. this is about the future. favorable odds are not enough. i wouldn't be recommending draftkings unless i liked the fundamentals. they are good. many states don't allow sports gambling. the november election, missouri legalized it. not as big as the other states.
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i bet the chief fans are feeling confident that i wouldn't be surprised if they gamble more than their 2% share. i like that they have done a good job of increasing parlay utilization. these bets are more profitable for the sports books, even though the payoff on the ten leg p parlay is higher than a straight bet. you will probably lose. you notice, you win three, you lose four? that's the way it goes. last quarter, they disclosed it was tracking at more than 500 basis points from the previous year. it helps the company hold rate or the amount of money the house retains on any given day. it might have frustrated you to see the money line for both penn state and notre dame was minus 100 and change last night. as an investor, the company is making money on those bets, regardless who wins. while the sports-based outcomes haven't been on their side, the company is in a great position to accelerate profits once
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favorites start winning at abnormally high rates. which should happen naturally over time. can it keep happening? absolutely. i'm saying it's unlikely. draftkings is looking for new ways to increase parlay utilization. launching a subscription service for select customers in new york that offers participants up to 100% profit boost on winning parlays. good for betters who want the boost. good for shareholders. parlays rarely pay off. no matter how much of a payoff you get, your odds of winning are so microscopic that your bookie is picking your pocket as far as i'm concerned. the ceo of delta announced a parter partnership with ftkings. outside of the sports book, they are making waves in the gaming industry. they can play traditional games
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online. there's more room for expansion in terms of gambling legalization. it's only legal in five states. the company is open timistic. on the last conference call, the ceo said he believes the previous outlook for growth will be too conservative. in early december, he noted the legalized sports betting industry is in the early innings in the u.s. apparently, it's a nation of degenerate gamblers in the uk. we lead in every other category. i'm sure we can catch up. it's hard to listen without hearing about betting lines. i bet he is right about this. draftkings has a lot going for it. when you consider how the stock tends to run during the nfl playoffs, you got my blessing to put on a position here. it's down a lot.
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same with flutter. i don't mind that. we haven't gotten disclosures from draftkings. potential announcement could cause it to sell off even if a lot of that is baked in. the bottom line, whether you like to bet or not, enjoy the games this weekend. if you like to bet, add an extra leg on the parlay if only for the shareholders. corey in new york. >> caller: long time club member. first time caller. >> thank you. thank you for being a member. what's up? >> caller: i know you liked airbnb in the past. do you think it is a buy for 2025 and beyond? >> very much so. the customers traveling -- i'm surprised the stock has not done as well. i know a stock like marriott has been red hot. i think it's only a matter of time. i do believe these guys have international footprint and they're doing well. they're not doing well enough to move the stock. that is going to happen. i believe the number will be very big. i really, really think you
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should buy airbnb. let's go to new jersey. >> caller: hi. thanks for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: i've been dabbling with nike. i wanted to get your thoughts, do you think it's got growth for this year? >> this is one of the ones i was going over with my friend. i think nike has a tough road ahead. i think it's going to take several quarters in order to get all that great work that elliott hill is going to do. he is a winner. i would not bet against the stock. at 71, i can't be convinced you haven't seen let's say dead money for the next three to six months. draftkings has a lot going for it. when you consider how it tends to run during the nfl playoffs that's coming up, you got my blessing.
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i know the fundamentals aren't great. i'm talking about the future. more "mad money" including my interview. has the market lost faith in the fed. all your calls tonight. stay with cramer. (grunting) at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep
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drugs that cut the appeal of booze. i still thought best of the companies could thrive in spite of the challenges. sdz, first popular that we stuck with as it got hit by tariff worries and fears of mass deportations which could do damage to the customer base. constellation reported the numbers were not good. they missed expectations, including for the beer business. it caused the stock to plunge today. calling into question my judgment about whether its ability can be the case. s there any hope? is it a lost cause? let's check in with the ceo. welcome back. >> thanks. good to be here. >> i have to tell you, this one shook me to the core. you did cut your depletion
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growth. you missed your net sales, operating income below estimates. why should i buy this stock? >> i think there's still a long runway to be bullish on our business. when you think about modella, it's the number one growth driver. we continue to outperform the category. we continue to outperform the cpg business. importantly, what we have seen is some real softness with the hispanic customer. as you know, that represents roughly half our business. there's a lot of good things to talk about. pacifico was up double digits. one that i'm excited about, which goes to your opening, is that our proportion of business coming from the 21 to 24-year-old was the biggest it has ever been this past year. which means we are attracting new, younger consumers into our business. >> yes. but at the same time, you have
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1.9 billion bought back. why did you not announce an accelerated share repurchase? give me like me who own the stock some sense that we're not just completely adrift here. >> as you point out, we have 1.9 billion authorization today. as you have seen, we bought 220 million this quarter. it was 670 for the year. we will continue to be aggressive on that score. obviously, we believe the stock is way undervalued at this point. >> right. i felt that way before the quarter. i'm trying to figure out whether you are not missing some sort of structural thing. i know you say it's not structural. has something happened in this industry that has made it so that alcohol itself is not just on some sort of cyclical decline or secular decline which you are
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a part of? >> i don't think that's the case. i think when you look at our percentage of the consumer basket, it remains the same. even though the basket has been a bit smaller, particularly with consumers that make less income. i don't think you are going to see this being some kind of an ongoing challenge for the industry. we are certainly relative to our business -- we have challenges with the hispanic consumer. the unemployment rate is up with that consumer. we expect that this is going to be short-term in its nature and it's not structural. >> first of all, the unemployment rate today was -- the big reason why the market fell is the unemployment rate was better than people thought. at the same time, we did get a slightly -- slight increase in employment up for the hispanic population this quarter. i'm not understanding what you just said, frankly. >> sure. if you look at the overall
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unemployment rate, we had 31 states in this past quarter that had a higher unemployment rate than the prior quarter. even though overall it was no different than the prior quarter. look, i think we came out of it a trough. we saw a better depletion rate in this quarter than in the prior quarter. some of which because we spent more money against our brands than we had anticipated. i think we're seeing ourselves come out of some of the challenges that we have seen and there's plenty of good to come. >> a supporter came out and said, this is -- i'm sorry, came out december 20th and said for the quarter we are modelling, up 4.5%, which is broadly in line with the expectation, an acceleration on one and two-year numbers here. they said they expected a clean quarter. you did not deliver what they thought. this was december 20th.
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how could people be so awry just three weeks ago? >> again, i think a lot relates specifically to the challenge with the hispanic consumer. when you look deeper under the numbers, you see that the data looks better than c-tores and independent outlets, which are represented with the hispanic community. we think this is bound to come around. we will be in good shape and ready to take advantage of it as it happens. >> don't you think at a certain point what people are saying is that you guys can't get the return that you used to be able to get on a dollar? so we will pay a lower multiple. i'm asking in a constructive way, what exactly is happening? the decline in the stock was shocking. it was shocking.
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it was disillusioning. it made me feel perhaps constellation does not have control of the situation. >> i certainly don't think that's the case in the least. i think when you think about the tailwinds that we have from a demographic standpoint over time, you look at the strength of our brands, growth of pacifico, of victoria, we are bringing out a product called sun brew this coming march, which we believe opens up for a younger audience that will be very attractive. all of which time we are continuing to beat the competition and to beat the cpg sector. don't lose faith. >> i would like to not lose faith. i think the stock -- it's pure judgment today. it says that if you give that constellation has had writeoffs,
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a $4 billion in cannabis, in a brewery, $2 billion in wine and spirits, that there are just too many writeoffs. there's too many opportunities missed. there's a sense constellation brands was not able to sell the wine and spirit when they had a chance at a higher price. it's not happening. overall, perhaps there is a sense that you are now just another one of the beer companies that's not doing as well, even though you are doing slightly better. >> my opinion is that is not correct. i think if you watch our profile going forward, i think you will be quite pleased with the results we're able to put up. you saw this today, we announced the sale of svedka. >> beer net sales growth of 4 to 7 was below the previous outlook of 6 to 8. >> yes, correct. part of what we are acknowledging is, we have
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certain areas that are still open to question. we don't know where the tariff situation is going to land. our view was, we had better expand the range of what we expected to see to reflect that potential risk. >> do you think there will be a cancer label put on alcohol? >> frankly, i don't. i think as you may have seen this week was an interesting editorial in "the wall street journal" which notes a very different perspective on that. i don't believe that will be the case. >> one last question. when you look at the tariff situation, do you think that there is any possibility that beer will be excluded because it's not something i would regard as being essential to the defense of our nation. >> we are hopeful on that. it's tough to predict. obviously, we have done a lot of scenarios, depending on what happens. we are optimistic that it will be short lived, if it occurs at all.
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it's very hard to predict, to be frank. >> thank you, bill. i know, i have to be this tough because the stock rendered a decree today that was different what i expected. thank you. "mad money" is back after the break. check in time is 3:00 it's 2:55. i know. is this what he's doing now? as your host, i have some rules. first, no showers longer than 5 minutes. this isn't a spa. no games. no fun. yes, coach. (♪♪) meanwhile, at a vrbo... when other vacation rentals make you share your turf with a host,
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then the lightning round is over. i will start with paul in north carolina. >> caller: mr. cramer, thank you for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: i got a question about -- after the acquisition of blue halo and given president-elect trump's apparent unwillingness to continue to support ukraine, what is your recommendation on aero environment? >> i like it. i gotta tell you, it's a star. >> caller: i'm calling about a mining company that's at a 52-week low and down 20% from its high. it has a 7.4% yield. is it time to load up on or back away from ryo tinto? >> i think the chinese economy
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is -- >> caller: from northwest florida. >> i lived in tallahassee. what's happening? >> caller: tell me about ktos. >> modern military. modern defense. i like the story very much. you are in good shape. >> caller: kumar in georgia. greetings. >> what's going on? >> caller: your opinion about verizon. >> i don't like to buy a stock for the yield when it doesn't have growth. that happens to be verizon. that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by charles schwab. coming up, does today's jobs report signal trouble ahead for the economy? cramer is giving you his take next. carl: what's up, carl nation! it's your #1 broker with the best full-service
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wealth management skills in the biz. tech asst: actually i'm seeing something from schwab. (uh-oh) producer : yeah, schwab lets you invest and trade on your own. and if you want they can even manage it for you. not to mention, schwab has a team of specialists for taxes, insurance, and estate planning. both producers: all with low fees. carl: we're experiencing technical difficulties... uh, carl... schwab! schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount. a healthy weight can help dogs live a longer and happier life. the farmer's dog makes weight management easy with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything. ♪♪ ♪♪
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is it really so bad that the u.s. economy created more jobs that be expected? look at the average today. you would think it's the end of the world. as long as i've been in this business, the answer is it's bad to get a strong labor report when wall street is worried about inflation. if we were worried about a recession, we would have cheered. nobody is worried about that. we are concerned the fed may have started cutting rates too soon before it had truly beaten inflation. what the heck was the hurry? we have a federal reserve that misjudged the strength of the economy, that cut rates in three months, when it's not obvious it was necessary. now the fed is faced with a credibility problem. same time the fed has to deal with the new administration with a plan to cut taxes and make up the difference with tariffs. the country has racked up $36
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trillion in debt. it has to deal with bond auctions all of the time to finance that debt. those have driven stocks lower. i do know of a silver lining. we are not going into recession. a recession means layoffs and lower profits, that's great. those two things are far worse than slightly higher inflation, like we have now. i say slightly higher inflation because wages went up so 10 cen an hour. we are better off with strong employment than week. we have to tolerate higher interest rates. that's a given. that's why we will survive this scare together. stay the course. only if you own solid companies with good balance sheets. sell those trash ones. now it's crunch time. wall street hates it when the fed is wrong. we lose faith in anything financial when we lose faith in the fed. we have higher interest rates than now in the 1990s and the
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1980s. we made money in the stock market. we lost money between 2007 and 2009 because we had horrendous employment and no profit. maybe it's as simple as that. we are in time of transition. accept some inflation as part of the deal. we have to find stocks that can outrun that inflation and thrive in this environment. the problem is there aren't that many of them. we must keep a lot of cash, not lose sight that stocks represent better value than bonds and accept this is not a time where we make a ton of money in equities. there's no savior out there. we have to reset, readjust and be grateful there are companies that can make money in these situations. especially retailers and outrun negatives and continue to generate long-term profitability. we have a set of cards that amounts to a worse hand than we thought. not as bad as the alternative, where you need to fold. higher yields and lower faith in
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the fed offset by higher profits, that's the story. it's not a great story. but it could be a lot worse. what else is there to say? i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i will try to find it for you here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you monday from the jp morgan health care conference in san francisco. investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great idea, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪♪ is a solution to an age-old problem in the kitchen. ♪ hi. my name is latangela newsome. i live in allen, texas. -word. and i'm seeking $75,000 in exchange for a 25% equity in my company.
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