that was never-ending. well, i just keep on thinking now how much i miss him. i miss him a lot. you'd miss him, too, if you knew him. ♪♪ ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro and these are your headlines. european equities start the week on the sour note with media and tech losses and pointing to further declines across the pond. and u.s. trading in the red as pressure on gilts continue with the 30-year gilt holding. the former chancellor tells cnbc

there's no quick fix. >> this is a longer term issue around confidence in uk economic growth and confidence in uk fiscal stability. the chancellor has to address those things with medium turn. the dollar at the lowest level after the non-farm payroll print crosses expectations with the chinese stepping up to defend the yuan. and wildfires continue to rage in california with strong winds set to return to l.a. as the death toll rises to 24. good morning, everyone. we start today's show getting a

check on how we are moving so far across the equity session on the european continent. look at it. we have pressure across the board, really. the stoxx 600 down .70%. when you think about it, this is a continuation of the mood that we had in the markets on friday. the benchmark closed down about .80%. indeed, it is still the story around higher bond yields. on friday, the jobsexpectations. that number was much higher than economists priced in and that has led to higher bond yields across the board. this morning, as you look at the benchmark here in europe, that story, that narrative is also having an impact on how european investors are positioning themselves. let me show you the different bourses and how they are faring at this point in the equity session. all of the major bourses in the red. the xetra dax down .70%.

similar moves in italy. indeed, the cac 40 cac 40 in fr down .60%. let's get a look at what is happening on the corporate front. oil and gas is the best performing sector at the moment. we are up about 1.2%. this off the back of higher oil prices. we'll be discussing that later in the show as well. we are seeing basic remember sources in the green after more measures announced by the chinese central bank. when you think about the worst performing sectors, though, that is where the story is this morning with the negative trend. we have a lot of pressure for tech names. we're down about 2%. media under pressure down 1.8%. i want to show you the u.s. futures, too, because what a session we had last friday. at the moment, we have futures suggesting it could be a negative start to the trading day on wall street with more pronounced losses for the

nasdaq. when you put that into context, what happened on friday, for instance, the nasdaq ended the day down 1.6%. the dow down 1.6%. all of this, though, off the back of the concerns in the markets about higher inflation and, perhaps, the fact that the fed might not be in a position to cut by as much as initially predicted. and why? why did we see higher bond yields on friday off the back of the latest non-farm payroll print which grew 256,000 in the month of december that is beating analysts expectations and marking the highest since march. unemployment rate declined to 4.1%. healthcare, leisure and hospitality saw the biggest job gains while retail also saw a sizeable increase. let me show you how we're moving in the bond market because as i mentioned earlier today, this is

where we are looking at the most important market narrative at the moment. i want to get a quick check of how we are faring for the benchmark in europe on the ten-year bund at 2.6876 at the moment. the treasury on the ten-year. up 4.7923. a lot of analysts have started to wonder whether we are going to test that 5% evel later this year. speaking on "squawk box europe," the former chancellor said rising concerns in the uk. >> markets are re-ing their view in a methodical way. this is against the back drop of international data which is also pushing markets in the same direction. we have a wave of international

reasons for interest rates looking as though they will be higher for longer and on top of that, we've got some specific uk reasons that are making the markets nervous about the uk economy and about the uk government's ability to manage its fiscal affairs. so, i think, you know, we're dealing with two things happening in parallel here. i don't think this is a short-term markets crisis of the sort that can be solved by intervention by the authorities. i think this is a longer term issue around confidence in uk economic growth and confidence in uk fiscal stability. >> let's discuss the comments with our next guest at insight investment. adam, great to have you on the show. we were hearing from the former chancellor there highlighting

there were specific concerns around uk economy and one of the reasons why we saw also gilt yields moving higher the last couple days. when you think about it, how would you describe the moves particularly in the uk bond market and where do you think we go from here when we have the yield on the ten-year gilt higher than over in the united states? >> very important to put it in international context. this is not a uk specific story. if you are to look at gilt yields relative to u.s. treasuries, they are pretty much within range. the driver at the moment is re-appraisal of central bank policy coming from the u.s. that comes off the back drop across the globe. >> when you think about the comment from the united states, what are your expectations for the treasury market is going to move this year? are you also of the camp we could see a 5% yield for the ten-year treasury? >> 5% we say is strategic value

in u.s. treasuries. last week's data on the employment side reinforced a u.s. exceptionalism story and alongside the america first policy. when we look forward across the rest of the year, we still expect the fed to be easing thought as much previous the u.s. election. after the yield levels, there is a powerful income story within government bond yields in particular treasuries. as we look forward, we expect lower yields and lower policy rates. >> guide us through your expectations for the fed. how do you expect further easing? if we get easing, it doesn't seem hugely as i ly significan markets. is that going to bring a material difference for the markets if we only see one rate cut? >> i think given the moves we've seen actually from here, you have much more of an

asymmetrical hike. this whole cycle is predicated on easing. given we've only got one cut priced in, the rest will reinforce the narrative and inflation is more sticky and u.s. labor market in rude health. last week's data pointed to that, but not uniformly pointing in that direction. the u.s. markets are better balanced now. the fed is aware and the dual mandate focused on inflation as well as employment. >> it is definitely a different comment from ecb officials. before we look at european debt markets, i also like to understand your thoughts regarding the outlook from the u.s. market. you have to put in context the upcoming presidency of donald trump and higher inflation from that. how big of a threat, let's say, is that inflation pressure from

the political point of view for the fed? >> if we focus on the policy impact, we know the general trend, but we don't know the shape. if we look back to history and focused on a policy which is very stimulative for business, then that should be good for growth. equally that brings inflation. the real wild card is what happens on the tariffs where it's likely to be a one-time increase in inflation and we think that central bankers will look through that. absolutely we're in a period of elevated uncertainty and that's really causing some of the concerns that we see in bond as well as equity markets. if you think what most investors want, they want clarity at the moment. there is a lack of that across regions. >> i like to get your thoughts on the debt and companies debt. why have we not seen more of a contagion here from higher bond yields from company debt? are you expecting that in the

near future? >> what is strange is elevated bond and low credit volatility. it would be strange for that to persist. we suspect the rate and currency vol will stay up here and it is more likely it is the other areas that start to catch up. why is it in corporate bond markets? that is risk. you are taking corporate rather than government exposure. at the moment, we've got company balance sheets in good shape. they can navigate the higher financing environment and from the investor perspective, it is a powerful income story. people want to capture the credit spread as well as the government bond yield. right now, we have levels with investment grade or high yields. >> interesting. i would like to also get your thoughts overall how to position the portfolio for 2025. when you hear the ecb advocating

for lower rates going forward and the pressure from the jobs report and gilts trading at the 30-year highest since 1998. how to position the portfolio going into 2025? >> the strongest conviction we have is uncertainty from the economics of policy or politics. what does that lead to? more volatility. that is the active ingredient. we advocate whatever the asset class. it's an active approach within fixed income. in terms of what we're focused on, it is relative value. whether it is economics or central banks. that is something we can try to pick off in terms of finding those countries more resilient to some of the risks and finding the companies more resilient or exposed to the risks and focused on picking off opportunities top down as well as bottom up. >> interesting. let's see what 2025 will have in store for us. adam whiteley. in other news this morning,

the chinese trade data came in had hotter than expected for the month of december as businesses started to front load the trade ahead of the inauguration next week. exports rose 10% on the year and imports were up 1% reversing two months of declines. our sam vadas filed this report. >> reporter: chinese exports ending 2024 at a high note beating expectations in december growing from the front loading ahead of the tariffs and chinese new year this month. imports surprised to the upside growing the most since july. that is a good forward looking indicator as a lot of material brought into the country is then reexported. this all widened the trade surplus to $105 billion. last month and $192 billion for the full year. with the u.s. alone, it was $361

billion in 2024. a number that will be important for trump and his trade policy. chinese officials sound confidence trade is resilient in the challenging with the western trading partners. today it reiterated the warning against protectionism and high overcapacity. chinese stocksful today dragged down by regional weakness after the negative lead on wall street on friday. while we didn't see as deep losses in chinese equities as other regional markets today, in this seemingly looking past the front loading trend in exports and weighing up the uncertainties for the economy on the horizon. the yuan getting support from the pboc moves to limit the speed of depression pressure on the currency. in singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. coming up on the show, two of germany's largest political parties confirm their candidates

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welcome back to the show. now on to german politics. two of germany's big political parties, olof scholz's social democrats and far right alternative for germany confirmed candidates over the weekend ahead of next month's federal elections. the two parties going into the election campaign with very different momentum. let's discuss this with annette. it seems we are one step closer to figuring out what an happen in this election. what was the main message from these two opposing political parties over the weekend?

>> reporter: it couldn't be more different because, of course, olof scholz is entering the election campaign with one huge disadvantage. he is also the chancellor of this very unpopular still existing government into the new election and, of course, he had to address that as well a little bit during his speech at the party convention which made him the official candidate for chancellory as well. let's listen in to what he had to say and understand why the last three years were so difficult and also made him such an unpopular candidate now. >> translator: it has been a recognizing exhausting three years. we witnessed this first rand. lots of mistakes. perhaps i should have put my foot down earlier, not just

behind the seep cenes, but in public. perhaps i should have ended the coalition earlier. >> reporter: the social democrats are trying to activist their potential among the electorate by promising lower taxes on small and medium incomes, but promising he essentially to tackle the affordability crisis by capping rents, if possible. that is their main message. with us ordinary people, you have more net income at the end of the month than before. the afd or alternative for germany, is, of course, promising something completely different. they are concentrating on stopping migration to the country and moving this party, the alternative for germany who was representative for a lot of different voices firmly into the right corner of the party. let's listen in to what alice

weidel, the first candidate for afd had to say on that. >> translator: counselling social benefits and carrying out large scale repatriations and if it needs to be called remigration, then it will be called remigration. >> reporter: so, of course, the afd likes the proximity to the president-elect donald trump and, of course, as we all know was officially endorsed by elon musk as the only savior of germany being on the brink of economic cliff. the social democrats are trying to lure voters into their camp by ordinary party campaign. the afd is, of course, much more extreme and stop of nuclear energy and retapping russian

gas. >> it seems they have roughly five weeks to conference the electorate. thanks, annette. i want to discuss this and the outlook for germany with our next guest. very good morning. good to have you on the show. i would like to understand from a policy perspective, how are you reading these comments from german politicians thus far in terms of trying to boost growth going forward? do you think when you think about the fact that the cdu leading the polls and the current economic model for germany, they will be in the position to reform it? >> they sort of heard they need to reform and they made some proposals. not all of them are perfect as is the case in politics, but at least they seem to be going that way.

then, of course, they will need a coalition partner. the spd probably a bit more retiscent on behalf of what we get some reforms at least. probably not enough to get anywhere close to the growth rates we have seen in recent decades. >> that's where i have my questions, really, because it seems the community of economists is very clear on that. whatever we are going to get post-election is not going to make a material difference for the economy. why when clearly there's a lot of pressures on the german economy and manufacturing? something needs to be done. >> the problem germany faces they have a lot of different drags on the economy. basically all production factors are going to contribute less in the future to growth than in the past. we have adverse developments in

democrat beings detailing how much labor we get. we have a lot of overregulation just slowing down the economy everywhere. we have this very irrational energy policy which just makes production much more expensive than it needs to be. we have extremely high levels of taxation which are sapping incentives to actually put in the effort and do things that could help growth. all of these things stuck out. you need to have wholesale reform across the spectrum. with a lot of these things that are deeply entrenched in germany, for example, if you think about the energy system, that's not something you can very easily change if all of these people are benefitting from the current trajectory are still. >> what are the economic

repercussions of germany announcing has deportations? we heard that over the weekend from the afd. let's put the political angle aside. explain to us the implications for the economy which has relied a lot also on immigrants. >> so, i think we need to distinguish a bit. not all immigrants are the same economically speaking. so, if you look at say the region between asylum seekers and people emigrating to take up work, the effects on the economy will be very different. if you just adjust a little bit on the pull factors, welfare and so on, perhaps shift the distribution of people coming in. that could be somewhat helpful for the economy in the end. >> are we going to be looking at different economic drivers for

the eurozone going forward with a lot of pressures on germany and the fact you just told me you don't expect massive changes for the growth outlook for germany going forward? is germany going to lose its crown for the biggest economy in the eurozone going forward? >> i think that would be a bit of a stretch just population wise. germany is still the biggest country and will remain so for a while whatever happens to population trends. then if you look at -- maybe growth rate wise -- probably going to be somewhat disappointing going forward even though if you can maybe get a cyclical rebound in the short-term. of course, production capacities are under utilized at the moment. if you go back to say normal utilization levels, you can have one or two years where you get higher growth rates than would be implied by the trend, but

again, that should not then be a reason for maybe slowing down on the reforms thinking everything is back to normal again. >> i just asking only because we have seen the periphery performing so well. they are the ones boosting growth for the eurozone at the moment. what i was trying to understand is whether that is likely to continue to be the scenario going forward. is the periphery giving the boost in the economic eurozone in the foreseeable future? >> the periphery has a number of advantages to get higher growth rates. for one, just based on a lower level. so, they have more unemployed people they can easily bring into work if the systems are set up correctly. they have lower productivity. they can just learn from the international best practices and catch up on that and also, in recent years, and for a little

while longer, they are benefitting from very large transfers from the european union. for a little while longer, it looks like they will be leading the pack, so to speak. >> at least in your opinion, for as long as these funds are coming through. they may not be there for ever. let's see with hat will happen. coming up on the show, feeling gilt-y? chancellor rachel reeves flies back to see if the gilt selloff will continue. we will take you through the details after this break. (auctioneer) let's start the bidding at 5 million dollars. thank you, sir. (man) these people of privilege... hoarding the financial advantages for far too long. (auctioneer) 7.5 at the back. (man) look at them — unaware that robinhood gold members now enjoy the vip treatment — a 3% ira match on retirement contributions. (auctioneer) 11 million sir. (man) once they discover their privileges are no longer exclusive...

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welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro and here are your headlines. european equities start the week on a sour note as u.s. futures

point to further declines across the pond. uk assets feel the heat with cable trading in the red as pressure on gilts continues with the 30-year yield holding at the highest level this century. the former chancellor tells cnbc there's no quick fix. >> this is a longer term issue around confidence and uk economic growth and confidence in uk fiscal stability and the chancellor has to address hose things with medium term strategies. the dollar index hits its highest level since november of 2022 after the december non-farm payroll print crushes expectations and trade data comes in stronger than expected. wildfires continue to rage in california with strong winds

set to continue in l.a. as the death toll rises to 24. ♪ time to get another check on how european equity session is going so far. thus far, we have basically red across the board. the benchmark stoxx 600 is down almost .80%. thinking about the main market narrative is, no doubt, around the concerns around higher inflation and stickier inflation and overall higher rates for longer. as i take you to the bourses, that is the main market narratives. we have all of the major bourses in the red at the moment with more pronounced moves to the down side in germany where the xetra dax is down .80%.

actually, italy is moving further down almost .90%. in terms of how we are likely to open on wall street, this is what investors are suggesting at the moment. they point to a negative start to the trading day on wall street. no doubt what these numbers with telling us at the moment continuing that downward pressure we already witnessed for u.s. stocks on friday. we had, for instance, the nasdaq down 1.6% on the day. we had the dow down similar levels and the s&p 500 also down around the same figures. this, though, overall, when you put those numbers of the friday session into context, it was also a negative week for u.s. equities. let's see what will happen this week when we have also a lot of data coming through. i want to focus on what's happening in the bond markets starting, no doubt, with what is happening here in the uk. gilt yields are marching higher

as the selloff continues into the third straight week. this after the yield on the ten-year paper hit its highest since the global financial crisis in 2008 and the yield on the longer data debt reached highest level since 1998. just to put things into context, that's when the lead topped of the charts. but while yields are rising globally as uncertainty grows over the impact of the second trump presidency, the cost of borrowing for the british government has become more ive more quickly. you have the charts showing that very clearly. that spells trouble for the chancellor's self-imposed fiscal rules with the government already on the hook for interest payments of more than 100 billion pounds per year. capital economics warned last

week that puts the chancellor on the hook for 1.5 billion pounds t. that continues, she could be forced into more tax hikes. we won't know for sure if this is the case until the office for budget responsibility's next forecast in march, but an insider reported over the weekend that treasury officials said if that came today, reeves would be in the red. meanwhile, the pound is under pressure down more than 10 pence against the dollar since the 2024 highs and option traders are betting it has further to fall. with bloomberg reporting increasing demand for contracts which pay out if sterling breaks below the 1.20 mark. some are betting it could fall below 1.12. the former uk chancellor said

reeves will need to take action after the selloff in gilts >> rachel reeves is facing a problem in the budget arithmetic. she did not have room on the autumn budget nalysis. clearly the increase of the cost of borrowing which has gone up more than other governments is going to wipe out that headroom. all other things being equal, she will either have to raise more taxes or she's going to have to cut spending. i think the problem for her is that raising more taxes is likely to have a damping effect on economic growth. >> reeves returns today. it was the highest profile visit by a british politician since

theresa may's trip. the the. the uk named ellam toledo efficiently to lead the bloc this year. let's discuss this with our next with guest. he is sir nigel, former british ambassador to the u.s. please tour have ure to have yo show. sir, i like to see how you view the comments and criticism on the chancellor for having gone to china at a time of market turmoil when she is also trying to do her job of boosting growth. how do you assess this criticism? >> i think it was exaggerated. there is sometimes never a good time to go. there will also be scores of

crises in the economy. if she went over the weekend, she didn't go for a long time. you have to try to balance these things when you are in a senior public office. half the task is balancing things. i think she was right to go ahead with the visit. she didn't cast it as a visit which was changing everything overnight. she was modest in her comments. actually, the 600 million is a modest amount by the standards of foreign leaders going to china. i think she was trying to lay a foundation for a decent relationship between the uk and china. one which broken down under the privilege government and become too tenuous. she wasn't saying it was a rose garden. playing any relationship with china has to balance the trade and security factors. she did that and was quite open about it. when you think china, you have to think medium and long term. that's what the government was doing. it was a first attempt to

establish decent personal government al relations by this government and the economic and trade area. >> so, you don't think the 600 million pounds announcing in the economic ties with china are significant or huge compared to what other countries have managed to negotiate? do you think this amount is trump proof or you think the uk will come under pressure for having closer links with china? >> i don't think the government is doing anything which will -- which is not thought through in terms of the likely security and other risks. plainly, if there's a breakdown in the world trading system because of what the united states does on tariffs in the months ahead, that's going to effect the uk like everyone else. the area she was talking about was finance services where the

united states is inn vested as well, they are not security sensitive. they are not going to play into the national security debate in relation to china. i think what she was doing over the weekend was sensible. 600 million is a lot of money. there's a potential for more than that in the announcements she's made. this is reestablishing links particularly on the financial services side in china after a period of negligent and being in the droms. >> i like to see how you position yourself with the trade conflict with the eu and u.s. we note the labour government is trying to forge closer ties with the ecb. where does the balance lie with the uk government amid this, perhaps, conflict with the u.s. and eu? >> well, i think the first thing to say for any government

dealing with incoming american administration and particularly one led by president trump is that we've got to hold to our own interests in the medium and long term and our own interests are maintain the growth agenda in the uk and productivity agenda. that's the most important thing we can do. strengthen our own economy. the key component of that is the reset with the european union. not to diminish the importance of the united states. let's remember that the eu is, by far, our largest trading partner even years after brexit and 50% of our trade is with the european union compared with under 20% with the united states. by the way, only 5% for china. you've got to keep these things in perspective. the most important change that we can make in terms of our international trading and economic relationships is to get the relationship with the eu on a proper footing.

i don't think that keir starmer will want to be dissuaded by anyone in the united states. the truth is the uk does not have a choice. we can't make a choice between the united states and eu. we need to have very good trading and economic relationships with both and we need both for our security. we become more reliant on our security on the united states since brexit. still, clearly in the months ahead, there's going to be more emphasis on defense, foreign policy, security cooperation with the eu and that is very important for our government to hold to. >> sir, i'll be honest with you, i'm struggling to understand how the labour government can have closer links with the eu in a meaningful way in a way to deliver growth for the uk economy when they have said no to the customs union and said no with a closer link to the eu. how will this work? how will they forge closer trade

links with the eu when they restricted themselves in how this relationship can look like? >> i have a lot of sympathy personally with that point of view, silvia. they established the guide rails before the election in the manifesto and i would say, like you, it would be better if they went faster. they have been rather timid the first six months in office in this area. i think they decided to major this year on defense and security. that will be the first thing. then i think there will be a negotiation. you mentioned the appointment of michael ellam to be the uk sherpa. there are things we can do in the short-term which will lay the foundation for more potentially later on and they've talked about moves in the areas of agriculture trade and moves in the areas of mobility which

the european union has been promote onning where the labour government has been resistant so far. moves in the area of professional qualifications and moves in the area of cultural tours and so on. which were the leftovers from the brexit negotiations with where early moves are possible and where i think if you have a foundation of moving ahead in those s, it will be possible to move forward. >> right. i'm afraid we have to leave the conversation there. sir nigel. coming up on the show, wildfires continue to rage in california while 2024 is recorded as the hottest year on record. we'll take a look at the implications of climate change for the insurance market after this break.

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as we approach the end of the show, here are the four things to get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. we get the check of the consumer with the new york fed expectation survey. on the corporate front, challenges after 2024 ies fell. the nippon steel-u.s. steel deal has been extended six months. citing the rising costs of content. i want to take you to the moves in pre-market trade looking at the u.s. semiconductors. they are down pre-market on concerns of the u.s. regulation

of a.i. chip exports as well as surging bond yields. we also saw the fact the narrative around higher bond yields is also an impact on how european tech names are faring this morning. this as the u.s. supreme court signals they likely to uphold a law over tiktok that china could be using the app for spying. they raise the implication on free speech. the chinese-paced parent company bytedance is expected to sell ahead of the deadline or face a blanket ban unless the appeal is upheld. and sweeping sanctions by the u.s. against the oil industry tar getting major

companies. at least 24 people have died in the los angeles wildfires with strong winds expected to return after a brief respite. more than 40,000 acres and 12,000 structures have been burned. the wildfires are set to become the costliest in american history with estimated losses rising to more than $135 billion. nbc's jay gray filed this report. >> reporter: over the last 24 hours, a dip in the winds and some progress along the frontlines of the l.a. wildfires. >> hand crews, engine companies scouring the edge to put the control lines in to make sure we have no fire progress . >> reporter: the santa ana winds forecast to pick up through wednesday. some areas could see 50 miles an hour or more potentially fanning

flames and igniting and scattering embers. >> we're focused on two things. containing the fires and saving lives and protecting property. >> reporter: so much here has already been lost. entire communities gone. >> to see it this way. i never thought i would live through something like this. >> reporter: at least 12,000 structures and 40,000 acres swallowed by the flames. >> this is an absolute nightmare. this is an apocalyptic movie. there's no way to assess the magnitude of the situation. >> reporter: law enforcement ending escorts for people locking down ravaged neighborhoods. >> a lot of the areas look like they were hit by a bomb. there are live electrical wires and gas lines and other hazards. we want to make sure you're

safe. >> reporter: firefighters continuing to battle along the flights of the blaze. some for days without sleep. >> we're going to keep fighting this fight and get this fire out and rebuild. >> reporter: each of those missions, right now, overwhelming. jay gray, nbc news, pacific palisades. >> this as the national oceanic atmospheric administration confirmed this was the hottest year recorded ever with the worldwide average temperature of 104 degrees celsius higher than the pre-instrumental dustrial a. let's discuss all of this and the implications for the insurance market with tobias at munich re. tobias, great to have you on the

show. first and foremost, i would like you to compare the damage we are witnessing so far in the california wildfires compared to previous and similar events of the past. >> yes, happy to. first of all, let me just express also my empathy and our empathy here to all those affected and communities affected and we hope also for a quick rebuild and restoration there. to set things a little bit into perspective, just in 2024, we saw a moderate wildfires season in the u.s. with $200 billion losses. in 2023, the wildfires in hawaii. the record year so far has been 2017 and 2018. each of them come with $20 billion insured losses. that was the record set and it has reached a new loss dimension for the wildfires in the u.s.

>> i also would like to discuss the latest data you have in terms of the impact of natural disasters in 2024. i notice that north america was the region that saw the biggest damages from natural climate events. why? what made north america overall, specifically in such a dire position here? >> well, we did see in 2024 plenty of weather tastrophes hitting global spaces, but the u.s. two major hurricanes. we saw a strong hurricane season in 2024, but also we recognized a very strong convective storm season in spring and summer of 2024. that all compounded to a significant loss toll for the u.s. >> i would also like to understand how we are faring so far this year.

i know we are only in january, but let's be honest, 2025 has not started well from this point of view. how much do you expect 2025 will have in terms of damages from natural weather events and could you give us a bracket here? i know it is hard to estimate, but could you give us a bracket? >> well, the year just has started and, of course, we saw the first significant loss event with the southern california wildfires now t.. it is too early to make a loss for 2025. it is clear, but obvious we are in a different world. the world has heated up. we are 1.5 above the pre-industrial age. that, of course, exacerbates the risk for severe storms and for heavy flood events and for strong hurricanes as well. we have seen in 2024 many

extreme weather events, including flood events in regions that have not been effected in the past with that level of magnitude. this might be continued in 2025 as well. >> given what we discussed, the numbers in relation to the u.s. last year, the current wildfires in california, what is your message to the upcoming administration stateside considering they are removing the u.s. from the climate deal? >> for us, it is climate change is a change of risk to our business. we did see a significant upward trend with respect to weather catastrophes over the last couple decades, i must say, and we have been collecting data and expertise for 50 years in that space. that is for us a business risk and we need to take it serious and investigate more on loss prevention measures because that's something we need to

speed up with and be better prepared going forward and help the communities to reduce future losses. >> given the risks, i just would like to understand where are the biggest pressures at the moment. where do you think the biggest risk is at the moment when you think about climate-related events and their impact on insurance? >> well, there are a couple of pressures coming from the climate. we do see increasing flood rates or increasing rates resulting in significant floods. we see increasing wind speeds with hurricanes and convective storms. that's all something we need to closely monitor and translated into a risk adequate pricing that is paramount for our business. >> tobias, thank you. chief climate scientist at munich re. a final check how we are

moving on european equities thus far this monday morning. overall, we are seeing red across the board with the investors showing concerns as well about sticker inflation and possibility of seeing higher rates for longer. a check on the u.s. futures. how we are likely to open later on today. they also point to a negative start to the trading day stateside after what was a negative session on friday. let's see what will happen throughout the rest of the day. no doubt, the narrative around higher bond yields seems to continue to dominate. that is it for today's show. i'm silvia amaro. stay with cnbc. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5." more red arrows for wall street after the worst day in a month. futures under pressure. tech hit the hardest after the friday's 1% slide on the nasdaq. dan ives from wedbush is here. mark zuckerberg going after apple and tim cook for lack of innovation and what he calls arbitrary rules. historic launch aimed at taking on elon musk and spacex is scrubbed in the final minutes. later, the response to the li