traded -- 11% floating rate and i think it's a good environment. >> thanks so much. >> if you're waiting for a chance to buy jpmorgan on the pullback, i think that chance has come. i take a position. >> amazon, lots of welcome to "the exchange". here is what is ahead. the global surgeon bond yields in the dollar has everyone's attention and today is putting up the pressure on tech stocks as we finally reach an extreme. one of our guests as we will find out next week and he is here to explain. mark zuckerberg comes out swinging throwing punches at apple while making some key changes to meta's content practices. we will discuss whether they can backfire with appetizers to

we speak with the ceo of redfin this is price gouging in the rental market has become part of the story with the only wildfires. but let's get to the latest on the markets. >> mixed but session highs. we have an upside although i will point out of the major three indices in positive territory but it is worth about 218 points, one half of 1% gain, 42,154 for the blue-chip index. broader s&p 500 currently sits at 58 in positive territory but it is worth about 218 points, one half of 1% gain, 42,154 for the blue-chip index. broader s&p 500 currently sits at 5813, down about 12 or 13 points, near session highs and we were down about 54 points at the lows of the session so far and we are still negative but just about one quarter of a percent. 58. keep an eye on 5822, that is the 100 day moving average for the s&p 500 and of course above that in ways way is 5952 which is the

watch those in nasdaq composite under performer again today big technology is part of the story, 19,013 is the trade for the nasdaq and that is off about three quarters of 1% or 150 points to the downside. on the new side, check out steel. sources are telling cnbc's david faber that there could be a potential emerging computing deal for u.s. steel that involves cleveland cliffs buying up u.s. steel for an offer that might be, according to sources, in the high 30s per share. only to take over the whole company and sell the division of u.s. steel to a new course steel, all three of the companies are in the green right now and u.s. steel by 7.5% in cleveland cliffs by four point sent. u.s. steel got blocks from nippon steel for national security reasons. on the interest rate side we continue to step higher for the benchmark 10 year u.s. treasury note yield. we are 4.776% now and we got as high as 4.805% earlier in the

session and that would put you at the highest level going all the way back to november of 2023. if you're watching that move higher in deals over the last couple of months, keep an eye on the 4.8% range because we are approaching territories where may be some value buyers are in or will the bond vigilantes that have expressed concerns about our fiscal situation in the u.s. emerge victorious. i will send it back. >> that is the question. if you're looking for some relief on the rate front door with the dollar, my next guest says keep on your breath. it depends on what exactly president-elect trump annex -- announces next week. we have the chief strategist of interactive brokers to cnbc's senior economics reporter is here as well. steve, there is a lot of people going, once things get this extreme how many more days will rates go up? how much higher can the dollar get? you say it depends on what happens next week.

>> the momentum clearly a stronger dollar, higher rates right now but we will learn a lot basically literally one week from now when president- elect trump becomes president trump. and we see whether these executive orders that i think have got the market a bit fearful about the inflationary impacts of tariffs and potential immigration restrictions. let's see if the market is overpricing the negative. it would be an inverse by the rumor sell, the news, if they turn out to be less extreme than the market fears. if they do, if they are consequential, the trend can continue >> can you unpack a little bit of the dynamic where we have both high and rising bond yields at a rising dollar. i may throw in rising commodities, you could argue some things are going on. which is driving which higher or are they being driven by the same news flow? >> pretty similar. in general if you have higher rates in the u.s. or higher rates in any currency, is generally helps appreciate that

currency. you earn more interest by owning that currency. this case we have a little bit of a kick on friday because we learned that the economy, the labor economy stronger than we expected. we should not be expecting rate cuts anytime soon, necessarily. and that freaked out the stock market to a large extent. the bond market reacted pretty much as it might have but as you take the rate cut expectations off the table, the dollar seems stronger against other currencies where you have central banks were more likely to cut rate such as the bank of england. >> it feels like the bond market remains in the drivers seat this year and that that's i don't know what that portends for stocks. how do you explain the path we may take through this? >> it depends why the bond markets, why the bond yields are rising. if the rising to get the economy stronger, that is good and stocks can be resilient under that circumstance. there are plenty of situations where stocks and bonds can diverge for well.

november 2023 was a previous high for the bond market. stocks did pretty well throughout 2023. again, the economic story is good, they can diverge in that way. yields can go up in the stock market can be okay. if it is because of inflation fears or because of some sort of stagflation, all the negatives, and if the dollar get sort of two strong so multinational exporters, the ones that dominate major u.s. indices, get their earnings impacted, that becomes problematic. >> how telling is it? the above 20 and sitting, does that tell you they are creeping near the downside? >> vix, i like to say it is not a fear gauge but it plays on tv and it is not constructed as a fear gauge and it is meant is that markets best market volatility over the next 30 days. we said there is a lot of potential news coming over the coming days and also there is a backwards looking element and over the 15 sessions prior to

today, eight of them had moves in the s&p 500 greater than 1%. we are sailing volatility and that is hitting priced in. >> steve, maybe you can answer that question for the bond investors, is this a better or stronger economy or because tariffs and deficit issues and the like? >> i think it is all and i love the way steve is thinking about this. it force my thinking which is, why are rates higher and what could potentially change? i made a list and maybe we could all add to this list. let's start with the high deficits that could go bigger. this is something that president-elect trump could do something about. but i think it is unlikely. moving to the next thing, better growth and productivity outlooks. the second i don't think anybody has anything to do with the productivity part better growth that does look to be part of what the market is bracing for when it comes to hire -- when it comes to higher

interest rates right now. then there is inflation and that is the fed's purview, and we will see if the fed decides to do more about inflation or stays where it is at and think it will drive down inflation that way. and then there is the answer to the aspect of all of those things and i think steve is right to think that come inauguration day we may get more certainty about what least in the months or weeks after that, we will get a little more certainty about what president- elect trump plans but right now i think there is an idea that i will sell the 10 year amid that uncertainty rather than buy it and you are right, i think, in this notion that the higher dollar i think should attract funds to our deficit financing. and that should be something that helps over the long haul. but overall my conclusion is, there is not a whole lot really that reverses course here, unless president trump steps forward with what i think would be something of a series effort to reduce the deficit.

>> steve, i will turn to you and maybe you can translate. we were about to get into earnings season which will not be the one that tells us about the new conditions coming into play but what should be be looking for in terms of commentary? how would you position? the fact that tech stocks are down today, is that a signal of they are multinational and have exposure and a dollar is a headwind? the other folks tell us when bond yields rise it tends to make it more attractive. >> their earnings power has been demonstrable. i think that is what the market has been gravitating toward but in theory, the earnings and the cash flows that really drive the stock price become discounted more heavily when you have higher interest rates. the present value of those future flows is lower, which is why they do it ultimately and hit stock prices over time. what i am listening for regardless of company and regardless of industry is

guidance. we have priced in for the s&p 500, we, collectively, the world, 15% earnings growth for s&p earnings in 2025. any hint that cannot be sustained will be problematic whether on a micro level with individual companies. we can think of maybe micron a couple weeks ago. and collective, the 15% may be a number that is too high to be recognized. that will force the market to completely return their expectations. it doesn't matter in the bank some i don't love the fact that banks of those because they are idiosyncratic. >> not the best helper everybody else. >> but maybe we will learn something from them about customers, consumers are big corporate customers doing.>> final word. >> in our retail monitor, showed strong gains in december adding to the growth story, perhaps adding to the earnings

story. we cannot figure out what price or how profitable they were in those sales but if you look at the retail monitor we put together november and december and those two big days moved over into december because of late thanksgiving and this was a really solid shopping season. and we had mixed results from retailers and we will see, did they sell at a bargain price? it was a short season. or did they sell a full price? i don't he procrastinated.>> i was going to make a global dollar comment which is the one thing we are good at is selling cheap, imported goods. this is the problem with the entire u.s. economy and the global system. >> if cheap goods make people happy that i don't know what the problem is. we can have that discussion some other time. i am not opposed to the idea of people wanting to buy cheap products or whatever the product is in a cheaper price overseas, they are to get it to split the trade off is we have no manufacturing base. we will save this for a follow- up discussion.

high rates are dashing hopes for a bigger recovery in the housing market pick and even the one bright spot in recent years, the homebuilder etf is down 15% in the past three months to my next guest things that move has been sharp and unwarranted. john is back with us and he is a senior homebuilder analyst at ubs. unwarranted? mortgage applications were at a 30 year low. >> thank you for having me. i think the fact of the matter is that underlying demand is actually pretty good. the most recent data from our evidence lab housing attention survey shows 31% of buyers intend to pull the trigger over the next 12 months. that is above the historical average of 30. the intent to buy or the ability to buy and there are headwinds. but we have a lot of pent-up demand and another built market. we think we will have those single digit growth this year with builders able to outperform that pretty

meaningfully. i think there is a tremendous amount of fear in the market right now and that is what has been the catalyst for us to get published typically this is the time when the fear translates into good opportunities for investors. >> the setup is strange because we are in the middle of what is supposed to be this fed rate cutting cycle and traditional you see housing start to pick up a manufacturing start to pick up and all the things that benefit from lower rates but rates on everything but everything is one of the and step. for housing this will not be a big contributor to any kind of acceleration in growth at this point. >> i think you are right and i think we are seeing the currently with the existing home sales that pretty much at gf see trough levels. the silver linings are twofold, the public builders of the ability to offer mortgage rate by dell to keep the demand going that is still there. underlying strong basis. that is a big advantage versus smaller competitors and also versus the existing home market to the other silver lining is there is a lot of concern about inventory in the market and we can sit and talk about why we

think that is overblown, but higher rates should limit the amount of inventory that is coming in as the locket effect comes back into the full force. >> we joked or kind of a morbid joke the biggest threat would be normalization and the rest of the market. 4% mortgage rates. you recently upgraded to buy wms, and talk about what makes those attractive. >> i think for our top homebuilding pick, i think the growth profile is among best in class among our homebuilders and our coverage picked i think valuation across the group it is very punitive, 8 1/2 times earnings on average across the group and you look at a company like meritage trading around seven times earnings and below book value on forward estimates to i think that is a compelling story. advanced drainage system is a

building product company very much focused in terms of the homebuilders on the front end which is doing the horizontal land development because before the builders start developing. i think that is a stop where we are at peak fears. something we think is a great opportunity. and another builder we are pretty much bullets across the board, we were little bit more skeptical last year just given the fact that we had thought their margins might resettle more than others, and they have presented us wrong in the pool but has created a great opportunity. >> i was going to ask about the building products, is there going to be an effect on this coverage from the california wildfires?>> it is tragic. you hate to jump too far ahead but i think there will be a real rebuild effort that is needed. i do believe that the building product companies and the coverage will play an important role in that pretty much across the board, even the distributors in our coverage will be key to getting this products out. to help rebuild. i would say the builders in our coverage have very little exposure and i think will be more of a building product type

phenomenon. >> and even though single digit exposure. that sort of thing? >> for building products, yet. small but tough to tell the speed of this recovery because of the fact that insurance companies will be involved am sure they will pull the resources from all over the place to make this effort. as straightforward as possible. >> thank you for your time. coming up, meta ceo mark zuckerberg says apple has not innovated in 20 years, that was on joe rogan's podcast friday. as apple shares are now down 10% from record high less than three weeks ago. as firefighters to continue to battle the blaze is in los angeles, we are starting to get a better idea of the damage to communities like pacific palisades. after the break a look at the long recovery ahead for residents and for real estate alike.

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welcome back. the death toll from the california wildfires is climbing as firefighters race to contain the blazes before stronger winds return.

there at least three active fires we are watching. all entering their seventh day. the palisades fire, the biggest is 14% contained. to the east, the eaton fire which was also quite large is 33% contained. the hurst fire to the north is 95% contained with a smaller amount of 800 acres. the road to recovery could be long. we have our team exploring all angles of the. we are live in pacific palisades with the latest pick it and we have reports of price gouging. and since california is one of the largest issuers of municipal bonds, we are joined with what investors need to know about. >> reporter: right now the wind is beginning to pick up and we have just seen an army of utility trucks coming in to pacific palisades. generally, if you live in southern california, you were living with an expectation to if you are in town you will be safe from fires. winds here was so high in the

flames of fear is that it came into town and business after business is gone. this was a building that at a starbucks and a restaurant. and bank of america is burned down. the chase right down the street is burned down. you flip around it on the other side of sunset boulevard, what you see is the village and by a developer who recently ran for mayor. and it is still standing. it looks untouched. he is getting a lot of attention for pulling and private resources to help protect this property. but it highlights a couple of things. one, the assumption of where the risk is. i have been told that a lot of the insurers and the reinsurers largely put that risk in northern california. they thought that is where it was a greater risk. some insurers may have taken on more risk in southern california then they can actually afford now. we will have to wait and see. second, driving through, what i saw is newer construction,

homes that were clearly built recently, many of them withstood flames that even the next-door neighbors did not. what does this mean for communities and recovery and four new building codes? it will be interesting to see whether the local building codes and whether the state building codes come to a different level to help build up resilience in this particular community. >> thank you . redfin is receiving thousands of calls about sales and rentals in california and everyone is looking for a place to stay. they are getting emergent reports about price gouging. for more we are joined by redfin ceo and our own diana. welcome. diana, kick things off. >> i know redfin is based in seattle but you have a huge presence in the los angeles area. how many agents and how many offices do you have? >> 500 agents and five offices. >> what are you hearing from the agents. i've seen the

reports of them getting thousands of calls on a single property listed over the weekend. what are they telling you? >> people are desperate for housing right now, especially rental housing to rental agents like many agents are representing people on rentals. pro bono and there is no money in that business. but it is honestly what we need to do. to rebuild our community. many people listed their homes have withdrawn the listing and instead decided to rent it out. and they are trying to get top dollar for it. this was already in the inventory constrained market and it has gotten much, much worse. >> what about price gouging? we hear on the rental side. some homeowners wanted to sell are raising their list prices. those that are taking off the market to take advantage of rentals. are using the rent prices soar? >> we have not abrogated any quantitative data on it yet but

individually you hear about people suddenly asking for double the amount of rent. this is in an area where the median income would have to be used for 80% of the rent. people already were having a hard time making that and will get much harder now because so many people are displaced. >> can you give us a sense of how many properties are even available to be rented? airbnb? how much inventory is there for other people who are displaced right now? roughly approximating the area. >> there were 17,000 units heading into the fire and i think many people are now opening up their homes, trying to rent them out as airbnb's. it is a really volatile situation where we don't know just a many beds will be made available over the next month. we have seen communities like this in tampa bay and hawaii recover more quickly than people realize. but it still would take a long time to rebuild all these homes

, two or three years, at the least. l.a. will look completely different when we are done because it has been rezoned for much higher density than we had in places like pacific palisades or malibu before. >> looking about six months into the future, we know that l.a. is one of the highest priced markets in the country, the median price around $900,000 and even higher in the pacific palisades. for existing homes right now in the area that were not part of the fire do you expect to see home prices soar over the next six months and by how much do you think that game will be? >> that is really hard to say because the fires have not even stopped burning and we don't know how many people will leave the area and we don't know how many homes will burn. we have seen just over the past week that more people want to list their home than buy a home so i think spelling -- selling californians are having second thoughts about living in fire prone areas. the other fact that you have to think about with affordability

we used to think only about home prices and mortgage rates but now we have to consider home insurance rates and that is the third factor that no one had to worry about, but in some cases especially in the riskiest areas, insurance rates are doubling, tripling, quadrupling. i think you had 13% of california agents say last year that a deal did not come through because the customer cannot afford the insurance. >> that would lower the value of the home because when you put that insurance rate, that additional rate would be for a homebuyer that will lower the value. how does the value of the home get affected by the fact that perhaps there are not services around? that it will take a euro two for the entire neighborhood to rebuild. does that lower the value of homes that are standing as well? >> there are so many puts and takes and it is hard to say. on one hand you will have less inventory and on the other hand you will have homes that are the only home standing on a block and i don't know how many people really want to live in an area like that. my guess is that the demise of southern california has been predicted many times and it is one of the most beautiful and

amazing and resilient places. people will always want to live there. i think prices will just go up. >> thank you for joining us. ceo of redfin. >> thank you. let's turn to how california's municipalities have fared after past recent fires and what that could tell us about what might happen now. we appreciate your time. people -- i hear reports of questioning whether l.a. can put on the olympics in 2028? there is a lot of concern about how exactly this is going to pan out in the next few years.>> heartfelt sympathy for those impacted by the wildfire but i think the main point we see from the median market is median investments remain safe if you look at past experience with natural disasters, you have not seen the false and meaningful downgrades and not long-term credit deterioration. and i think this is certainly the case. if you look at the two most recent disasters that were

certainly the largest, hurricane katrina, super storm sandy come and look at the municipal experience. no default on either and drilling down further, hurricane katrina, $125 billion of damage and 1 million people were displaced. the federal government came in with $120 billion and there was eventually 29 or 30 downgrades but no payment defaults and i think when you look at super storm sandy, 625,000 homes destroyed. $75 billion in damages to the federal government came in with $50 billion and we do not have any defaults. i think as we look at this in the absolute horrible images on tv, it is important to separate the credit side and traditionally municipal don't have the default when you have these types of natural disasters. >> i am sure there are investors who are looking and if they live in the area and have exposure and what do you do now? i thought this was interesting

in what california has done during past wildfires from assessed valuations hold up well. the housing market continues to increase in value. they even have backfilled lost property tax revenues in the past which i thought was interesting. there is hold harmless provisions allowing schools to be funded at predisaster enrollment levels. there is a big undertaking. >> there was a lot of mechanisms in place and for schools and for getting your funding from the state level, those hold harmless are very important. and i think what you look at is how municipal's are trading in the midst of natural disasters. you look all the way back to the polar vortex of 2021 and spreads widened out a little bit but now with the retail investor base, we are not seeing a lot of the spread widening but for one or two names that i think that will be the case. where the credit mechanisms in place i think really do give investors a lot of confidence that you will not see the large- scale defaults because of a natural disaster. >> what can you tell us, i don't know if you have seen it but about los angeles general credit worthiness. this is an

area where it is shining a light on some economic challenges they had had. it may not impact the cost of real estate but the vibrancy of the economy. is there any reason to be concerned? >> you look at for instance one of the most widely held credits in california, los angeles community college district. $1.2 trillion assessed base. you look at that in its totality and where the fires are and it is just, when you have a tax base that big and you have the largest community college district in the united states, these sorts of things, they are absolutely tragic but from a credit stand point, it does not have an impact when you have such a large base for taxation. >> we will see what other moves they may make in order to get through this. thank you. check out shows in southern california utility company edison international. they on track for the worst day since march of 2020 after residents and business owners

in the pasadena area filed a lawsuit claiming their equipment for igniting the eaton fire. that level the town of altadena. and is in shares are down 11% and they are looking into the matter and could not comment on the suit. no cause has been rmedy thits r fo the blaze or the others that were ignited nearly a week ago. we will be right back. ♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward. the further we'll all go.

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welcome back to "the exchange". federal judge eileen cannon is allowing the justice department to release a portion of special counsel jack smith's report on president-elect trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election as soon as tuesday. judge cannon said to decide on friday whether to allow the doj to release select congressional members, part of the report that involves trump's classified documents case. the doj said it did does not intend to publicly release that. authorities say texas man was arrested in indianapolis on charges of stalking wnba star caitlin clark. prosecutors say michael thomas lewis said the basketball star was at vogue messengers and she told police she had been in fear of lewis and they changed her appearance in public for her safety.

the oscar nomination have been postponed due to the wildfires storage across los angeles and the academy of motion picture arts and sciences said nominations will be announced on january 23rd. i think we can agree that is recall. we will talk more about the fires and the cost to rebuild it, coming up on power lunch. coming up, apple shares appalling the pressure from china. down about 10% this year. and other facing criticism from a source closer to home. which is meta. ceo mark zuckerberg slamming notiak f lk roracof invaon and deceiving people among other things. we are back with more after this. e key to ng rich is knowing what counts.

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apple shares have been sliding this year and down about 10% since the record close on december 26. the company reported losing market share in china. mark zuckerberg had harsh words during his appearance on the joe rogan experience podcast saying, they are off their game. >> they have used that platform to put in place a lot of rules, i think that feel arbitrary and feel like they have not really invented anything great in a while. steve jobs invented the iphone and now they are just kind of sitting on it, 20 years later. >> zuckerberg also talked about facebook's move to fact

checkers in his thoughts on the trump administration and much more. some have some in silicon valley questioning his rhetoric and his policy shift. >> let's talk about this. it was in many ways harder and more broad than what we have seen from other leaders in silicon valley. others were outspoken, long before was trendy or before it was convenient with trump about to take office. a few of the ways i've heard zuckerberg shift discuss in the tech community includes words like opportunistic, disingenuous, finalist. the irony of him saying apple doesn't innovate was not lost on many who called them out for buying instagram and whatsapp and making copycats of snap and twitter. and for all of his recent comments and actions to appeal to a more libertarian conservative audience, there are past efforts and actions in the other direction. from years ago.

tim sweeney posted on x friday after years of pretending to be democrat, the tech leaders of now pretending to be republicans. beware of the scummy monopoly campaign he said. at the games, the company behind fortnite has been vocal against big tech dominance but mostly lined with meta and zuckerberg fighting the good -- google and apple app store ecosystems. maybe the most important question is, is president-elect trump buying zuckerberg's makeover? that is unclear but at a press conference last week, trump was asked whether meta's policy changes are a direct response to the threats he has made against zuckerberg and he replied , probably. even though it seems like zuckerberg's audience is not necessarily buying it, hook, line and sinker. >> it is not just the tech community watching this. advertisers also have to digest

meadows lease and shift and for more on the implications for the market let's bring in mark douglas, the ceo of. julia, let me start with you. have you heard concerns from advertisers? >> i have heard advertisers saying they will wait and see how it plays out. advertisers are incredibly concerned about what they call grand safety, making sure their brand, whether it is a big consumer brand like pepsi or whether you are a small business owner and you have a coffee shop, you want to make sure your brand is not next to any offensive or violent content. i heard from the ceo of wpp, one of the largest holding agencies for the ad industry and he told me, that clients are just starting to digest what this move means. saying they're taking a wait- and-see approach to look at the content on this platform. moving to community notes is one issue but the main question is whether there will be more divisive content on the platform and time will tell. what he is saying is, it is not just about the fact you getting rid of fact checking from third-

party organizations, but also that mark zuckerberg said he wants people to talk more about politics and be very topics, minimize conversation about what happens when you have more political conversation on meta and platforms. will you want to be there? >> that is how we got to this point with the fact checkers and all of that because it was a lot of advertisers who really pressed this issue against facebook and other platforms to go back several years now . anytime there was a concern about where their ads were appearing, they would be very -- they would pull their ads from the platform. should we expect similar reactions this time around or do you think they are not as concerned? >> i think it is a bit different . when the concerns can down the path it was more about privacy issues. cambrige analytica if i remember the name, those were the concerns that advertisers have. here, it is me of a free speech argument and i think for the most part, as long as the

content on meta was not ever really people objecting to. i don't think it is the same thing and the other thing is, meta services the needs and they have 10 million advertisers on the platform. there are less -- let's call it 250 or 350 very large advertisers and they could withstand the below even if all of the advertisers abandon meta. >> to press the point, let's go back to when people were going after twitter around the time that elon musk bought it and said it was posting anti- semitic content and they showed advertisers, here is your ad next to this content. what we do? i have to imagine a similar phenomenon will happen with meta and meta is in trouble , they cannot fully get rid of a lot of the bad stuff. the child pornography and the rest. what will they do the first time someone comes and says, i saw this ad appearing next to, maybe not that content but some kind of objected --

objectionable content. >> that is the risk. i think the announcement from zuckerberg is not that they will allow offensive content on the platform, it is the way in which they make sure that content is not there is being change. there is no wholesale move toward allowing various -- very offensive or worse content on meda and i think advertisers will basically learn that they are okay and also on top of that they honestly don't have another place ago. meta plays a huge role in performance advertising. >> that might have a lot of truth to it. julia, last word. >> i think what will be interesting is how some of the traditional media companies were to take advantage of this opportunity. they have been working to figure out how to make their ads easier to buy by small and medium-size businesses. the media companies traditionally, the ad inventory had only been accessible by larger companies, but last week there was a consortium of ad

sellers they came together called universal ads including cnbc parent company, nbc universal and comcast as well is warner bros. discovery and fox are teaming up together to make their streaming digital ad inventory accessible to smaller buyers. and you can bet they are going out and saying, look at our brand content and it is premium. we are making it easier to buy and try to provide themselves as an alternative, if it turns out that there is objectionable content. but the last thing i will say, people do thing that mark zuckerberg will be pragmatic. and they do expect him to be cautious because they understand that he is a big advertiser to. >> thank you. thank you for your time. strike spacing of social media we can be less than a week away from a ban on to talk and we will talk to the ccl of the talent agency working with more than 200 creators about the

impact that could have on their livelihood and where they are already starting to create backup platforms. we are back after this.

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powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. strike welcome back to "the exchange". tiktok will be banned on january 19th unless the supreme court intervenes. what are the platform influencers who can draw seven- figure salaries going to do? one agency started uploading creator contents travel sites months ago. joining me, represents 200 media stars. i genuinely did not think we come to this where based on what we had friday looks like this thing is going dark. >> it has been such a long conversation over so many years that i think people have become numb to the actual threat that tiktok might go dark. you like many clients, things have started to feel more tangible and real.

we have been advising clients to prepare for this ahead of time. they are starting to see that it might happen. >> just give us a sense. people were able to quickly and you have to be consistent. the posting is exhausting and every time i try i am reminded but you can make considerable money if you really get a following on the platform. how lucrative is it and not any of the other platforms close? >> being a digital creator is a serious business and many people aren't significant levels of income and i think if you really were to analyze the current entertainment landscape, digital creators really matchup to add musicians and actors and athletes into one bucket. tiktok really put in a new arena for many people to enter a get a following and the other platforms provide significant audiences to earn an income. >> let's take instagram, it's algorithm has gotten better and i think a lot of us users would say it is nowhere close and

maybe they will keep working on it but now i am afraid they'll have to. if the biggest rival goes way what is the incentive? what is the best platform for creators other than tiktok right now? >> it depends on the type of creator you are. most creators who came up on tiktok are short film creators and there are some new names that came up through the live stream experience. the short films will go to youtube shorts and go to instagram reels and to snapchat. but i see those three platforms being the main players in the next era. >> what in terms of how this could work, to talk is a global app and it will exist. it is only in the u.s. and it will fragment the audiences and what does that mean for the people who have built these businesses? >> it is interesting. for certain creators, it will be an exit essential threat and it may be the end of their careers. brother creators, those with

large international audiences might move brought. for many it is a hiccup in the long pathway toward their full or entertainment career. it is case-by-case but it will be the biggest task we have seen in last five years around digital creators ability to last. >> you have been putting content on other platforms. i should mention, our friends in common, one of your clients, florida mama 3 and tiktok. they were neighbors of years ago and now they are stars. a good example of migrating content and there they are. they have a huge following on tiktok and they are starting to get that on instagram. as you have more people trial platforms have you found that they are going to be able to transfer the server to other platforms?>> i would say not only have they become a huge business themselves but there is an ecosystem built around them. branstetter launching at costco go to the channel to figure out how to promote and sell food

off the shelves. maybe 10 or 15 years ago companies would take about putting in a couponing program. now they think about finding which social media stars can raise attention to the products and stores. you are right. are focusing on how did they take existing content, move it to instagram and how do they fine-tune their skills to understand what audiences on the other platforms are looking for and how the algorithms perform. it is a lot of fun tweaking. >> they are incredible. i give him credit. thank you for joining us. we would love to check in as this plays out. strike let's get on to a alert on honeywell. what is happening? >> honeywell seems to be speeding up efforts to break up its companies amid pressure growing from activist investor elliott. according to a headline from bloomberg. remember elliott is -- they put

a five dollars taken to honeywell back in november and that was one of its largest single investments ever and since then honeywell's ceo indicated his intention to evaluate the company's business, efforts to restructure and to split up automation from aerospace. but according to this report it seems like there is pressure to kick those plans into motion and that is pushing shares higher by 1.5%. we reached out to honeywell and elliott and we will keep you updated. >> the shares of spinal companies have done well and fedex might be joining them in a small way. it is part of a larger trend. >> popular trend especially after going big for so long and growing and organically and now the pressure is to get smaller and simpler for the business. >> we will keep an eye on honeywell shares. thank you for watching "the exchange". power lunches right after this.

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♪ ♪ and welcome to "power lunch," sure, the dow may be higher. nobody cares about the dow and the nasdaq down again, it's now close to wiping out all of the gains it has made since the election and many big-name stocks ust keep going down. that include, kelly, some of the big moneymakers last year. we'll dig into why on all of this. >> i think it's significant that we're almost round tripping

weighing on stocks big time has