seamless capability for our customers really helps. >> on tap tomorrow, another test flight of spaceship's starship. check out manifest base there on your screen. >> quite a lot of stuff. >> that's degree to do it for overtime. "fast money" starts now. why do the nasdaq site in the middle of the heart of new york times square. eli lilly seeing their worst day since 2021. if the air can even come out of this big trade, what does it mean for the other big winner, a.i.? and we may be on the verge of a shutdown. we dive into the details coming up. plus, getting ready, more on deck tomorrow. quantum computing stocks go

higher. and two more trader acronyms. one of our traders came out not just with one of their picks but a full definition. i'm alyssa lee. steve grasso, dan nathan, guy adami and julie diehl. eli lilling sinking 6 1/2%, its worst since 1991. the move coming after disappointing zepbound and jaro. novo nordisk, trading at august 2023 lows. it's lost nearly half of its value since late june. and viking thera sank. that is currently in midstage trials. for more on all of this, angelica peebles joins us. angelica? >> a, mel.

that's right. lilly's fourth quarter coming up short of expectations. and that is renewing fears that it might also be slowing. >> because of supply tight accident in the first half of the year, inventory levels rose because of uncertainty. as we become a more predictable supplier, people able to work down their capital. and patients can get the medicine they want. >> lilly's new ceo. what they did there was they took the trends that they were seeing earlier in the ear when supplies were tight. and people started pulling back. they weren't ordering as much as they needed or that they were before because there was more supply available. and also learned that there is more seasonable stock available. saying there were just a few things that were a little bit

out of whack in those guidance. and some of those assumptions they were making. and lilly's fireside chat. >> keep us posted, angelica peebles. thank you. mizuho healthcare strategist, jared holz. do you buy their explanation of the inventory, sort of fluctuations, from quarter to quarter? >> great to see you, too. yeah. i think i do. this is obviously a moving target in such a fluid market. and there's so many things we still don't understand about all of the supply demands and metrics in the market. which are going to be preferred by doctors and patients. are they going to be on these chronically? intermittently? so yeah, i think some of the commentary makes a lot of sense. i think there's just so many

variables that are just not understood. not a big pullback as well. is there anything on your mind. novo just closed its deal. it's prepared to produce a lot more vials of the drug. >> i don't think. it comes up in every conversation, around this drug class, and how pervasive it is. and how patients are going to need to want it or need it or a combination of both. and novo and lilly have, i think, invested over $20 billion this year just in manufacturing. we talk about this market as though it is much, much more than it is. 2024 was the first year, where both lilly and novo had approved drugs for obesity. i think we are just getting started. i think the demand is there. i think the one thing that gives me a little bit of pause is how long patients are going

to be on the drug for it. >> as this gets approved for more and more things away from diabetes and will obesity. do you expect the insurance to go higher. i'm curious. will that help demand? i would suspect it would. >> i think so. i mean, sleep apnea, various cardiac conditions and maybe alzheimer's. later this year. if the efficacy is decent and most likely be very good. at least the biogen and lilly drugs on the market. i would think they would have to cover this for more medical info. i think that's a definite. the question is, when. and as we move forward, we'll get more of that. >> david ricks didn't do a good

thing. >> i think the average analyst price is just still north of $1,000. what's the case, though, jared, if there is one, if this can break down in a meaningful way? >> what's going on? yeah. i think the valuation is still the biggestcology straint. it's trading 20, 25 times. and north of 25 times, 2026. obviously, that pales in comparison to where the stock traded last year, at this time. but it's still much higher than most of the other pharmacompanies out there. does it break down? i think you need to see a couple quarters where the numbers do not inflect higher. this quarter, zepbound missed numbers. man jara missed numbers.

again, we're talking about a very small variance. but in order for this stock to break down from here. i think you need to see a couple of quarter, where you really are starting to see evidence that the revenue is not meeting consensus. >> jared, do you think that they diversify away from the fat loss, drugs, and they go with another area? or do they gobble up the smaller players? dipped below $500 million market cap. this one seems to be under pressure. but the efficacy seems to be better than the larger players. >> yeah. it's a really good question. you have seen them diversify away over the past couple of quarters. they've done a couple of deals. they just announced yesterday, a deal for a private company in the oncology space for about 2 1/2 billion. whether or not they can add to obesity or these

cardiometabolic drugs. as it applies to either an altamune, or a bunch of these other much, much smaller publicly-traded companies. it's going to depend on mechanism of action. insofar as how the government would look for it. we'll see how the oral shows. if there is any abnormality or inconsistency with the oral drug or for glick ron, maybe they have to kind of dip their toe into another asset there. >> jared. thank you. great to speak with you. >> thank you so much. jared with mizuho. before zepbound was approved. all that gain was gone. >> if you pull up the chart. i think we got down to 725 in april of last year. there is a level of support. but with all that said, the

risk report for the first time in a while, i think sets up okay. you know what your down side is. analysts are still very constructive. and they believe it's still early innings here. valuations be >> as jared had mentioned, there is the oral pill readout. they have another drug. supposedly showing better efficacy than on the market. would you take a flyer on eli lilly and this pullback. >> i think if you have a long- term orientation, this could be a compelling opportunity. but you have to do this with the understanding that there will probably be bumps in the road. any time you have things like this, where expectations are extremely high. people really do move around. and this is such a unique class of drugs. we have so many questions, in terms of are people going to be

on this long term. that makes it really difficult to be able to model any of this data. it's not that anyone is bad at this job. you're going to have risks of further steps down for sure. >> when i looked at the technicals. in february and april and november. this is where lilly should pop. and novo, if you go back to august of 2023. that's where that one should pop. and we're looking at those similar levels. if you're going to take a look at the flyer on this. these are the mainstays, the anchors in the space. i think this is probably a good spot. >> how many times have we, on the way up, for both of these spots, likened these trades to the a.i. trades that were very hot? many, many times. what is happening right now. there are questions about demand for this drug. there are questions about valuation of the stock stance.

>> and we have been making this for month. and you could have been for months. we've seen novo in generative a.i. i think the comparison is pretty good. if we see the unusual enthusiasm and sentiment as it relates to generative a.i. the fateful 8 has pretty much encompassed a lot of that enthusiasm. it's not too different from what we're talking about. the last year, about a lot of these other folks doing these trials and other drugs. again, if you do a dropoff in demand. see cap x start to slow. it's going to take some digestion. i just go back, man. like we talked about this from the highs in '21, to the lows in '22. you had test. sold off 75% from their all- time highs. no one thought that could happen before.

and i'm not saying that couldn't happen again. but nvidia could be market cap. >> natam was through the sky. new applications, et cetera, et cetera. just like a.i. the total cap x expected. all of these expectations get loftier and loftier. >> and on the way up, people will say that. because you know what? you're not going to get any pushback. valuations don't matter. we have a mode around our business. when thing goes higher; when thing goes pear-shaped. they trade different. >> both times the stock went down anywhere from 35 to 45%. you saw the same thing last tuesday, i believe, made a new

all-time low. it is setting up for a very similar move. >> the obvious difference is lilly. nvidia is up. what i think you're going to need is people don't need those complicated. you can get another chip from a host of other semis. i think what you might see is not the whole trade semi fail. just the larger claims. >> aversion trade so to speak. >> right. >> julie, let's connect. are we concerned about these trades, concerned about the evaluation of these two areas, which were the hottest areas of the market, what happens to the markets overall. as we sit at this crucial moment, ahead of the inauguration of donald trump next week. as we are expecting cpi

tomorrow. >> i think earnings season is going to be much more persuasive with investors than what is going on with these two. i think we can see better broadening, better improvement, better participation in other stops. and i think the parallels we see, there are kind of important differences that i would really point to. one, with nvidia, the biggest challenge i see with that is just the level of customer concentration that they have. you know, half of their business is only in a handful of companies. that's not the case, right? all of these healthcare companies. there are fewer risks. and that's probably where i would focus. but i think again, the most important is earnings. we already had a report today on small business confidence that showed great improvement. the proof will be in the pudding, as we see better cap x broadly speaking. >> we got used to a lot of

different companies and areas talk about a.i. and their conference calls. this quarter. just wait. constant currency. if you think about the u.s. dollar index. dixie traded, about 100. when you think of that on a sequential basis, but also, year over year, that's going to make a huge hit and to me, that's something you've got to keep a close eye on. and obviously, any deceleration. but these are big earnings. >> dollar rates and policy uncertainty. >> all fair. >> right. >> top mentions on conference calls. >> initially, a bit of relief, maybe sigh of relief that we're not as hot as suggested. if that would have been the

precipitous drop. a lot of people. i am one of those people. and i'll say it. 10-year yield. >> reacceleration. >> goes lower. >> when valuations matter. >> the only thing that the market has going for it. is that ppi is seen being an indicator. and fed needs bell cover. those are a little bit more variable. than the other two on this week. >> i think they're probably going to pause. if you look at the body. it's also if you think about the backgrounds of a lot of the members, particularly jerome powell. if paul voker is your hero, you're probably always going to lean a little hawkish when it's

a little uncertain. i think the cost of waiting, as opposed to the cost of cutting and then being wrong, is probably a lot lower. >> julie, i think, is everybody's hero today. because she's doing a show out there in southern california, having to be evacuated from her home. obviously we wish her and everybody the best. but the fact that she's doing the show tonight is testament to her. so my hero for the next 43 minutes. >> after that, who knows? >> after that, who knows? and a quick programming note here. be sure to tune in to mad money tonight. jim is chatting with ceos of merck, cardinal health and regeneron. coming up, boeing deliveries. the drop in those numbers with the widening rivals. plus, the quantum leap. the group bouncing back to start the new year. will the energy continue for these new names. or is the computing revolution

still change? when "fast money" returns. >> this is fast money, with melissa lee. right here on cnbc.

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at this time manufacturer, delivering 30-year in december. routed by slew. bringing the total for the year to 348. can boeing bounce back this year? we should note, of course, boeing is the "b" in tim's band trade, we unveiled the other day. but you have also been talking positively about boeing. >> i felt like a genius trading at 180. and here we are back at 167. i will still say, the secondary priced 148 or so. i think that is going to be for the foreseeable future for the low. these are a bit of retracement. i'm a believer.

i get delivery numbers are important. but this is bigger than that. i think just increment. lack of bad news, if they can just get out of their own way. >> that's a big if -- >> nothing change the. >> if you look at backlog, too. air bus is 8600. with boeing, it is 5500. it's not just deliveries. and to guy's point, getting out of your way they can't. and when you look at the stock. guy talks about this a lot. the percent of revenue from the government is 54%. >> wow. >> that's the only thing that keeps this stock afloat, right? i don't want to mix -- >> do you think that goes away? >> no. i don't think it goes away. but when you have a new administration coming in that wants to haggle and save multiple trillions of dollars, they're going to be renegotiating every government contract, the bigger, the more susceptible you are to getting

it cut. >> but you think that elon musk, who owns -- what does he own? what? spacex? >> do you think he's going to be critical of boeing and this doge thing. and spaceex has gotten there. we need a second source. you can't just rely on one private space company. but the government has to hold the line and make sure boeing does not fail. a lot more coming up on "fast money." a rebound in the quantum space. but can the comeback continue? or will this quantum leap turn into a negative charge? plus, banks in a financial season. and for succession planning. you're watching fast money, teve from the nasdaq market si in times square. we're back right after this.

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d-wave surging almost 24%. quantum computing and ionq. is it volatile ahead? >> they're definitely going to be trading vehicles. when we pointed it out. we talked about pixie dust. >> pixie dust? >> that one. so i think you're going to see the same sort of travel that we saw in a.i. but a.i. had a much closer horizon than quantum. i will tell you, though, number one, i loved when he was with the yankees, right? and i also would like to change -- i haven't revealed my acronym. >> acronym. >> but i do have an r in it. and i like to replace what my r is for regetty. i would say, it's still down for the year. right? it's not really as aggressive as we're talking about. i think that quantum. you're going to have to wait a

lot longer. they want to focus on their strategy first. >> when google, or alphabet, i should say, when we were talking about the willowship and advancement there. even google's road map for quantum. still decades, a way. i'm going to go out on a limb and say this is not in. >> i think everything in the quantum space is too speculative for us. and they are very dependent on dod funding with darpa and other programs. and that makes me extremely nervous going forward because i don't think it takes much for that to dry up. meantime. get them while you still can. there are a limited number of tickets at the end of february.

fast-money live. here at the nasdaq market site. you'll also be. what's more. you'll visit cocktails. we'll also give you a special commemorative memento. only for people attending this event. and you'll get six months of cnbc as well. join the party. >> i was talking to mary duffy, who is brilliant. she's forgotten more than anybody will ever know. but over 25 states now. including oregon, missouri. arkansas. louisiana -- >> texas. >> colorado. >> also canada. we have dairy farmers. traders. >> staten island. don't forget staten island. >> nobody from staten island, oddly enough. >> there's still time. there's time. >> this is going to be, honest to god, as i said earlier. we feel like we know you.

here's our opportunity to get to know you and return. absolutely join us. >> yeah. and you get a chance to join dan. >> loves hugs. >> is there any trader who is in more need of a hug? >> it's true. you'll find out if dan was part of this. >> so lovable. seriously, this was the first time they were ever doing this. opening our doors to you guys out there. join us. >> we occasionally have some people. very small group here. but this is going to be a very exciting time, as guy said, to see people that watch the show. i've been in the industry as the rest of us have, for a lifetime. and it's nice to see what people have. and see what the viewer has and that connection. absolutely. there are still tickets available. so qr code on your screen. or go to get your tickets. coming up, earnings seasons comes back tomorrow.

gerard cassidy joins us. and why he says it's all about the yield curve. don't go anywhere. fast money is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money" stocks. nasdaq posting another loss, now on a five-day losing streak. shares of sig net jewelers posting its worst in five years. the company lowering sales. as holiday sales fell short of expectations. the big banks, kicking off earnings seasons tomorrow. goldman sachs, wells fargo. big banks trading even higher on strong results with the treasury market trend playing a big role. gerard is a multiyear, top- ranked instiitutional. >> that's going to be a big

boom for the banks? >> i think so. when you take a look back in time. first, we haven't seen a positively-sloped curve since 2022. then if you go back in time, whether it was back in 2001 or in '08 or '09, 2019. as net interest margins expanded. i think that is the story that is going to be the surprise to the upside in 2025. assuming the yield curve remains positively slow. so if the front end of the curve stays anchored. long end of the curve is around 475. maybe to 490. that is a nice slope to the curve. and the banks don't even need to aggressively blend in that environment. it's as as the earnings assets rollover. think about the yield that bank of america have in their portfolio, from purchases made in 2020, and 2021, when the 10- year was below 1%. those are going to roll over

into higher yielding. they're going to look at margins over bank of america. we think this is the underlying surprise potential for 2025. >> gerard, when you look at it. that's your number 1 bullish tale wind. when you look at regulatory environment. and you look at taxes. how would you gauge those? what would be the regulation, with bos l3. is that equivalent? steepening with the curve? what kind of business will that bring in? and how should we look at the banks, with that prism of being lower. >> i think you put your thumb right on it. i think it's tremendous. the bosl3. last week, announced his resignation. and now, this incoming trump administration is going to appoint a new head of the currency, head of fdic,

protection bureau, and appoint a new chair. and in a speech last thursday, the vice chair of the fdic pointed out that bosl end game should be capital improvement. think back to july 2023, they were talking about capital levels increasing 16%. we are going to have an industry that is heavily capitalized, which will enable them to be more refocused. we'll go from a regulatory environment. to one that is more soft to touch and more supportive of our banking industry. so that the banking industry can get more involved, blending into the economy, to help simulate growth. >> troy, if you're in the hall

of fame, i will say this much against you. tangible buck will be $98. trading $248. that's north of two and a half times, which is levels we haven't seen probably since prefinancial crisis. i mean, can this just continue to grow? or are we running into some valuation problems? >> guy, i think you're right. there are some of the banks, and you put your finger on the one that is the most valuable of them all, amongst the biggest banks, which is jp morgan chase. obviously, they have deserved the valuations over the number of years. for them to really deliver this year, in terms of stock performance. it's really going to have to come more from earnings growth than valuation expansion. but there are a number of other banks, whether it's bank of america, in the money center space, or even in the regional space. these companies, multiples can expand. because when you go back in time, and i'm not talking about

the prefinancial crisis barrier. because that's not really fair to use those periods since the banking industry has changed, considerably since that crisis. but if you go back to january, 2018. that was the cyclical high. and they traded. 2.2 times tangible. and about 12 to 13 times forward earnings. today, we're about 1.3 to 1.4. 1.7, times chargeable. tangible. you're right. we've had a nice move-in with the group. i think the real growth, from the stock prices could should come from the better-than- expected growth potentially in 2025. >> gerard, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you, melissa. thank you, everybody. >> gerard cassidy, rbc. >> it's still probably jp morgan. if you look at the bank index, it is only four years that it

outperformed the bank index. it's just a function -- just a better-managed bank. and i think generally speaking, the lighter regulation is probably more beneficial for smaller banks. jp morgan knows how to work in any kind of environment. but broadly speaking, i still think having the flexibility in this balance sheet is where you really want to be. >> regional banks act horrible. if you were getting excited about the potential for m&a. the market is telling you, that's not it. as far as the big money centers again. i say to might. it's kind of laughable. at this. maybe we're late cycle in the economy. you want to roll back regulation. go back to 2018. a bunch of the regulation that was rolled back were the very thing that failed a lot of regional banks. to me, the market. telling you, don't expect a lot of deregulation any time soon. >> by the way, we'll have more on the results of the banks, jp

morgan and others tomorrow. we'll break it down with joe moglia. fast money. coach joe. coming up. meta followed under pressure. even though it seems more unlikely that tiktok is going to be banned in the u.s. and it's acronym reveal week. one will give you a caffeine pick. we'll tell you what it is when we come back.

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. welcome back to "fast money." this weekend, congress has said the social media giant must divest from bytedance. but while american tiktokers may be jumping ship ahead of the deadline, they are not just going to facebook. they seem to be going to another. for more on the state of social media, let's go to julia boorstin. >> today, meta shares lost

2.3%, despite bullish analyst commentary. snap shares were down nearly 7%. and pinterest shares down about 2%. these stocks seem to be responding to rumors. despite tiktok telling cbc, quote, we can't be expected to comment to pure fiction, chuting those rumors down. cowan saying, even if a platform is seen as negatives for its rivals. and that's why those stocks are lower. the other big news today, meta, announcing it is looking to cut employos, with the goal of back- filling those roles. saying i've decided to raise the bar on performance management and move out low performers faster. the company says it expects to reach 10%, what they call nonregrettable attrition to the end of the performance cycle.

and they say they'll provide generous severance. meta shares were down before that news was out. that news not impacting the stock very much. >> thank you, julia boorstin. >> ever since a possible ban was on. there was an assumption, those tiktokers would have to go somewhere else. seems like they are giving the u.s. government, a "see what i can do," i'll say that nicely because the other way is not sanctioned by ftc. this is not owned by bytedance, but it is another shanghai- based company. >> i think it's a fascinating dynamic. the assumption was that if there is no tiktok, they will move to reels. but that's not the case. they are moving to red note. i've seen people on tiktok say,

they would rather write their social security number and put it on a post-it note and put it on xi jinping's head. >> there's some talk, too, that some of these people who have moved to red note. will do weekly bans. reels, what's app. et cetera. >> there is a certain sense of irony, that mark zuckerberg has cozied up. >> there's a lot of goofiness going on here. but at the end of the day, i'm not sure the app is banned. i think you can't download it. there's a host of other things. but isps would have to block it. >> it would just degrade.

eventually, it will cease to work. >> yeah. the kids will use it, though. they're obsessed. >> like guy. >> you say that in jest. but meanwhile, who was thest adapter -- >> of pint arrest? >> pinterest? >> people tell me to open this. and i don't do it because you need to be on tiktok. >> isn't red note going to be banned? the only one that needs it, snap needs it for their stock performance. snap only had one quarter of profitability since 20 top. so if anyone needs a ban on tiktok. it's them. coming up, more accurate reveals. >> carter and julie's acronyms

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today, carter braxton worth. 2024 acronym was p.l.u.g., comprised of peloton, lincoln financial, unitedhealthcare and gold. this year, he not only sent us an acronym but it's definition and pronunciation, of course. it is a noun. a short sound of a small solid object dropping into water without a splash. the verb is to fall or cause to fall with a plop. carter, you're actually betting on a p.l.o.p. for these stocks. >> could have changed that. but let's just do it. i thought i would do the other side of p.l.u.g. and four stocks i thought i would be plugging. the first is pallentier. this is obviously a beloved stock that has drawn in much capital and much anticipation for more to come. and perhaps it will quint uple

from here. but i think the path lower to higher starts lower first. the second is the biggest company in the s&p 500 materials. that's linde. a big chemicals company, down 15%. all the elements of bullish to bear reversal. then i've got a materials buildings stock. that is owens cornings. and it is down 20% from its december high. and bringing up the rear, no pun intended is a truck. paccar. peak in 2021. still never recovered its losses in the past two years. and i think all of these. the burden of proof is on the bull. at this time bear just points to the circumstance in each one. >> and presumably carter, all of the components of your

acronym have come up as you sifted and sorted through hundreds of stocks, and you see that the technicals bear this out. >> i coo of done f.l.o.p. or m.o.p. or some of those other things, but it work the. >> possibilities are end little. thank you, carter. second acronym comes from julie beal. her 2024 word, t.r.a.c. transunion, aspen tech, certara, cooper. what are you picking this year, julie? >> my acronym is mocha. it's not just a great paint color but has some ideas in here. moleis is one. it's a key competency of theirs is going to be much in are positive. o and ollie's.

they are a bargain closeout merchant. and all i can think is, customers are desperate for value. i think we continue to see see good growth there. my third is clearwater analytics this. is a company they announced today,an acquisition with infusion. i think it's really well positioned to kind of continue to expand its platform there. and my h is hermes, in tandem with this. hermes is a representation of value. i remember they were in my office. and they kept using this word "value." and think about it. where other luxury have brought up their prices. 70%. this has only brought it up 10%. i think they're actually one of the few places that delivers luxury value. and a is a aon.

this is a cooling company. they have something like $200 million in orders for data centers. and i think they're also really well positioned this year. >> all right. so the next two in the books now. julie's m.o.c.h.a., and carter's p.l.o.p. up next, final trades. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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next. >> you own a stock with a.i. in the name, you could be in trouble. you need to ring a register tomorrow. they come too far, too fast for technology. take a decade to employ. >> mad money next. cnbc. time for the final trade. julie diehl. >> i talked about it before. clearwater analytics, nice positioning. >> steve? >> microstrategy. i didn't even hear julie. microstrategies. >> xlf puts look attractive. >> before the show, i said to

you, and i'm going to close the show. your hair looks fantastic. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> yours is okay. >> i can say that. pinterest. maybe it's on my pinterest page available. go buy them. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. i'm cramer. welcome to a special san francisco edition of "mad money." i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. sometimes wall street has to