n "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thanks for watching. ♪ good morning, everyone. welcome to "street signs." here's your headlines. german gdp, will the largest economy have its second-straight year of contraction since the '90s. u.k. inflation, is lending support and pushing the ftse to

outperform the european peers, in some welcome news for the british treasury. turning up the heat. crude prices in the green, as global oil demand rose at the fastest rate in a year in the fourth quarter. and the world watches the middle east, as u.s. secretary of state antony blinking says israel and hamas are on the drink of a deal. >> over the past several weeks, our intensive efforts brought us to the brink of full and final agreement. united states, qatar and egypt put forward a proposal. the ball is in hamas' court. >> dr. sanam vakil joins us this hour.

and we start today's show looking at the latest data coming from germany, in terms of the latest gdp. the figure for 2024 came in at minus 0.2. that is exactly in line with what analysts were expecting going into this, a full year gdp. a number. this is not a good number. you think of the performance of the german economy, in 2023, 2024, these are closer and figures because they are confirming that contraction. analysts were expecting going into these figures. of course, when you think about what's happening more broadly, we know there's a lot of pressure when it comes to manufacturing. let's not forget that we are approaching the election in february. there is pressure here on politicians to address the economic pressures on the german

economy. what are they going to do regarding the death rate? are they going to come up with fiscal policy that will ultimately deliver growth for the german economy? that's clearly the figures highlight the ease needed. when you think about the general sense, and the general importance of germany for the eurozone, i want to share this with you. the european commission forecast that germany could have the weakest growth of the whole bloc this year. this negative growth that we saw for germany in 2024, according to the european commission, we could see further economic pressures this year, as well. we have been looking at the numbers. explain to us the importance of the figure confirming contraction for the german economy 2024 ahead of the snap election. >> apparently, the biggest

importance is what's ahead of us. it was expected that the german economy is shrinking in 2024. what is interesting and to give one a bit of a broader picture is to see why is it? is it structural? is it a shock? it's actually both. we have, of course, the energy shock weighing on the german economy, with the high energy prices. the energy prices in germany are the highest among any nation. and that's a major problem for the manufacturing space. and energy-intensive companies, such as the chemical economy. then, we are seeing interest rates coming back. and that is weighing massively on the construction sector, construction activity is bound by roughly 4% last year. and on top of that, of course, comes the crisis of the car industry, which is a mix of

homemade issues and also a general weakness in the chinese market for those car companies. plus, we have the looming tariffs coming from the incoming u.s. administration, which also will be a major burden for the economy in 2025. so, i would say, for investors, it is crucial to kind of think into the future and have a sense of what's going to happen to german corporates in 2025. we don't need to talk to multinationals. multinationals have made their mind up where to invest and that's mainly in the states. one last word on the upcoming election. and here, the key is the labor market. we're seeing the labor market up to 6% and bound to rise. that's putting pressure on politicians to come up with credible business-friendly

policies. it remains to be seen. in the end, it's the cross on february 23rd, if they vote in favor of business friendly or more social spending. >> we'll see what happens. not long before we head to the polls in germany. i want to take you to further breaking news. this is from the iea. the monthly oil market report. here's a couple of takeaways. the iea saying global oil demand grow seasonably in the fourth quarter last year. but posting robust, annual growth. this figure that the iea is mentioning are the strongest level since the end of 2023. at the end of 2023. the iae saying the lower rule prices, colder weather across

the hemisphere all combine to boost consumption. we look at the outlook for oil prices this year. on top of that, another important comment regarding sanctions on russia. the latest u.s. sanctions could significantly disrupt russian supply. it could have ramifications, too. that's the latest comment from iea. you have the oil prices on your screen. at this moment, unchanged. below that, $80 mark. and wti crude a little higher at $77.60 a barrel. u.k. inflation eased last month with cpi coming in weaker than expected in december at 2.5%. expectations of the bank of

england interest rate cut rose on the news. we have a couple of u.k. assets on the screen. let's get a quick check on how we're moving. downward pressure for yield-to-yields, as a result of this latest data. and we're expecting that the bank of england is now in a stronger position to actually cut rates. not long, as well, until we find out what the bank of england is going to do next. we want to take a look at european equities. look at stoxx, we're tracking higher about 0.3%. this is important because it is slightly different from the end of the trading session yesterday. we had the stocks just marginally below the flat line. we're seeing more conviction for european equities this morning. amid all of the data coming through. let me show you how the

individual forces are moving. we have a better idea of what's happening. the ftse 100, i think the positive news on inflation. the ftse 100 up almost 0.6%. and thinking about germany, where we got the latest figures, the main market up almost 0.4%. and take a check on how futures are moving. this is how we're likely to open. these suggest a mildly possible side the trading day over there. this mixed session that we witnessed on tuesday, the dow and the s&p 500 ending the day higher. pressure for tech stocks, the nasdaq ending the day down about 0.2%. now, the world economic forum has published its 2025

risk report. armed threats dominate the threat of the year. i had a chance ask her if key risks stood out. >> the world is in a dire state. and the risks are interconnected, layered on top of one another, making the business environment very difficult to navigate. there's so many risks to consider. but i would say that economic fragmentation impacted the supply chains continues to respark my interest. it has such a massive impact on the world, the trade collaboration and everything that businesses should be focused on and cons centrated o. >> has the united states painted a darker picture when you think about economic fragmentation with many respondents highlighting trade conflicts

with the u.s. and other parts of the world? >> it's not a new trend. the retrospective analysis in the report, the final chapter of the report, shows that concerns about conflict, new economic consequences, are igh today. but they've never been top of mind among decisionmakers for 20 years. looking at the trade policies, 2014, we saw them making the india initiative. and have the reduction act in 2022. we can look back at the youth china trade war in 2018. it's not a new concern. it's so interconnected. risks are layered on top of one another. and the economic fragmentation is it is ccelerates will impact the global chains. >> it's not a new trend. we know that. have you notice particular focus within the respondents how this is top of their minds as they

think about 2025? it has been going on for so long. yet, the narrative seems to be getting more and more aggressive. >> it is getting more and more aggressive. we're navigating more by increasing the economic tepgs tensions. we have to think that fragmentation is not a theoretical concern. it's something we have to confront today. we have complex and unfair environment. the protectionism and increasing trade disputes have led to increasing tariffs and barriers worldwide. this is what we've seen increase absolutely. we have the global trade alert. the number of policy interventions rose from 600 in 2017 to over 3,000 per year in 202 and 2024. i don't know where 2025 is going to end up. but it's a clear indication of

where it's headed. >> next week, cnbc ill be live from the swiss alps in davos. we'll have conversations with teresa ribera. and also hear from the dutch prime minister, the s.a.p. ceo, and the bbva chair. it kicks off on tuesday, direct will davos. and all live on cnbc international news youtube page. coming up on the show, a softer-than-inflation trend puts yields on the back foot. we'll take you through details after this break. uctioneer) lete bidding at 5 million dollars. (man) robinhood gold members get a 3% ira match.

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welcome back to the show. let's take another look at yields after the cpi came in at 2.5%. less than expected. j.m. morgan asset said, it will leave relief as a sticky print could have been a catalyst for the further volatility in the market. and rachel reeves spoke to parliament for the first time since the start of the gilt sell-off. and the growth has loss the confidence of the markets. >> there's been good volatility in markets. i don't believe it's reasonable to suggest that the reason why bond yields in the united states, in germany and france have risen, is because of the decisions of this government. >> any new tax rises, or

departmental spending cuts in the march statement, will the fiscal forecast become an emergency budget. >> are we committed to have one budget to provide businesses with the certainty they need to invest? we'll have an update from the obr in march. also, give this commitment. i set out as i've said, the fiscal rules that we will balance day-to-day spending and get a share of gdp within the forecast period. and we'll continue at all times to meet the fiscal laws. >> it's busy on the inflation front. stateside, the inflation rose 0.2% in december. and november's reading. headline produced inflation at the 3.3%, triple the reading a year ago. this ahead of the cpi print, the last full month of inflation data. consumer prices are expected to

come in 0.3% higher in december, the same in november. the yearly figure is expected to take 20 basis points higher to 2.9%. that's according to dow jones industrial average estimates. let's get a look at how global yields are moving. such an interesting market narrative over the last week or so. at a moment, we are seeing global bond yields moving lower. if i look at the yield on the ten-year gilt, we are tracking 4.87%. let's discuss this with our next guest. investment strategist at pgm. i want to focus the conversation on the u.k. the cpi print is providing a little good news for the treasury. i would like to understand the outlook here for gilt yields this year. there's been a component, a narrative, that the pressure we

have witnessed recently came in from outside. it had nothing to do with the u.k. economy. what do you think is going to happen from here onward, in terms of gilt yields? >> good question. you're right on the nail, the sense there's been two drivers of gilt ields. one has been external and one has been omestic. the u.k. is great news for the market. it relieves the pressure on fiscal finances and allows the bank of england to cut rates as soon as february, perhaps. the ternal side of the story is important. the driver of the sell-off, has been higher u.s. yields. we know that has two components. most people think it's about the repricing of the fed because of inflation and stronger growth. but also about the uncertainty that we're seeing about macro,

geopolitics, policy and that won't go away so easily. >> when you're comparing the ten-year gilt yield with what's happening for the ten-year treasury. we have them on the screen. we are looking at higher numbers for the year indicate compared to what's happening in the united states. draw for us a comparison going forward the rest of the year. how do you think this pair is going to trade going forward, given the different pressures on the fed and on the bank of england. >> it's hard to say. but what i say in the gilt yield in particular, the october budget didn't reassure investors. it wasn't as bad as cds or bonds. we have a sale in the u.s. and when the global bond market is under stress, it looks for vulnerabilities. and the u.k. was seen as a vulnerable place because growth has been very weak.

and because the budget didn't really assure investors as much as the market would like. that means that, of course, the fragility is still there. it hasn't gone away. this prospect of lower yields on the front end and back rates, and potentially some reassurance, more so from the chancellor that they're going to comply with the fiscal rules is going to be good news for yields. longer term, some of the yields are really interesting. i would like to make that point. we're in a bull market for bonds. don't forget about that. >> tell us about the positioning, then. where are the opportunities at the moment? >> i think the front end in the u.k., clearly is the safer place. and these yields are interesting. for the longer end, you need to be a bit more patient. have to be mindful that it's not just about the front end assessment. and not even just about the fiscal outlook. also about the uncertainty that i mentioned. global policy uncertainty.

geopolitics, peace and et cetera, not only in the u.k. but in the u.s. >> i want to understand your expectations for this year more broadly. i was reading some of the commentary of the back end of last year where you predicted a bull market in bonds was going to resume in 2025. where is it? thus far, we don't seem to have that. what could change the narrative here to bring that bull market? >> i think we're in a great position for the bull market to continue. we saw significant yields. this hasn't started in december. so, those higher level yields sets us up for a nice rally of continuation. the bull market in 2035. the problem is, when you look at fixed income, most of the value is in the so-called fed rates or government bonds, rather than

spreads. corporate spreads are tight. investors are enticed by the yields. so, we think even if you have higher bond yields and spreads, it will be a compelling market. >> i want to get your thoughts on credit. explain to us where you think this is going to go. is it likely to continue? or do you expect a change here? >> that's a degree point. the weakness in the u.s. credit market we've seen since december hasn't translated to credit. in the cash market. in the cds market, a bit more. the main reason is, i would say there's two things that are important. the global growth factor, in particular, the u.s. growth factor remains resilient. that's the gel that keeps involved any credit. the second is more linked to

position. if you look at the demand for yields, it's still pretty high. if you look at theish suance a the yield, it's low. you have significant demand on little supply. that means that spreads can remain low. we expect to see volatility. we know the environment is uncertain. >> and the latest cpi print in the united states can bring back volatility once again. we'll get a final reading. we appreciate your time today. from bonds to stocks, here are the stocks we're keeping a close eye this morning. there's plenty of action in earnings on the u.k. this morning. some of them include hays. the first half operating market at the lower end as the company feels the pain of hiring

conditions globally. the operational profit of 25 million pounds. vistry is getting a boost this morning after the company booked its guidance of 250 million pounds. but warn of uncertain market conditions this year. let's get a check on how home builders are performing today. we have basically green across the board. looking at some of the home builders. they are tracking higher about 3.3%. bellway moving higher 4%. persimmon, who we heard from yesterday, the latest update yesterday. they are moving higher, about 3.7%. we know one of the main market narratives for real estate and the home builders more specifically, in the aftermath of the election of the labor government has been the expectation, that we will see more building going forward. more construction going forward.

but let's see how that is actually going to unfold. retailer currys are surging after the christmas period. and resuming dividend pay out. curry shares moving higher. in south korea, the south korean impeached president, yoon souk yul has been arrested after 3,000 officers secured access to the presidential residence. it follows his short-lived martial law decree and the impeachment process. tiktok is preparing to shut off its app for united states users on sunday, unless the supreme court intervenes to block the ban. that's according to the information. elsewhere, the s.e.c. has sued elon musk, alleging the billionaire committed securities fraud in 2022 by failing to disclose he had an active stake in twitter that allowed him to

buy shares at artificially low prices. he underpaid for twitter shares by at least $150 million. coming up on the show, with israel and hamas seemingly on the brink of a cease-fire deal, thr.reont a read of the gi wi d sanam vakil.

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sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome to "street signs." here are your headlines. the german economy contracts for the second year in a row. the first back-to-back decline in more than 20 years. the warning the exports outlook remains soft. and it doesn't see a significant recovery. u.k. inflation to the down side, lending support to gilt

and pushing the ftse higher. attention turns stateside, as the big names on wall street kick off earning season before the all-important usc pi print. turning up the heat. crude prices in the green, as global oil demand rose at its fastest rate in a year in the fourth quarter. and the world watches the middle east as u.s. secretary of state antony blinken says israel and hamas are on the brink of a cease-fire deal. >> over the past several weeks, our ntensive efforts to brought us to the brink of full and final agreement. on sunday, the united states, qatar and egypt put forward the final proposal. the ball is now in hamas' court. >> with so much going on, let's get a check on how we're moving

across the equity markets in europe. starting with the benchmark. the stoxx 600. we're seeing a positive mood among european investors this morning. despite the fact that the stoxx 600 ended below the flat line. investors today, digesting this economic inflate to. they're also a little in a wait-and-see mode, regarding the upcoming cpi print, stateside. today, of course, let's not forget, we are at the start of the latest earning season, too. we'll hear from major u.s. banks later today, as well. i want to show you how different forces are trading across european continents. we get a better idea of what is going on. a little inside of the ftse 100. up 0.7%.

we're extending early again, on the back of the cpi print that came in below expectations. in germany, we have the xetra dax up half a percent. and a contraction for a second year in a row. u.s. futures, this is how we open later today. they suggest a positive side to the trading day. i want to focus on the nasdaq. the numbers are positive compared to the sentiment we witnessed yesterday. we had the nasdaq ending the day down 0.2%. let me share this number with you. i found it interesting. we saw a little upside for the russell u.k. smaller and medium stateside was up 1%. if you look at the russell u.k., it was a strong day yesterday. now, i want to focus on

geopolitics. israel and hamas are on the brink of a deal, according to the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken. an agreement is expected to be closer than ever before, as envoys took part in the final round of talks on tuesday. the deal is expected to include the initial release of 33 israeli hostages and up to 1,000 palestinian prisoners. blinken said the ball is in hamas' court. >> first step is to achieve an national cease-fire. six weeks, where israel and hamas stop firing, israeli forces pull back. hostages come home. humanitarian assistance surges into gaza. it will create space for a day-after plan, to allow the full withdrawal of israeli

forces to make the cease-fire permanent and to bring the remaining hostages home. over the last several weeks, our intensive efforts have brought us to the brink of full and final agreement. on sunday, the united states, qatar and egypt put forward a final proposal. the ball is now in hamas' court. >> dr. sanam vikil is joining us today. good morning. i like to understand whether it is the working assumption that the cease-fire is going to come through. we keep hearing we are on the brink. we're on the brink. and we have not seen the cease-fire agreement yet. >> good morning. it's a pleasure to be with you on this important issue. the expectation is that the agreement is going to come through. there's a lot of details that need to be ironed out. there's lists that have to be finalized on which israeli hostages are going to be

released. they have to be located and identified. on the israeli side, identifying which palestinian prisoners is going to be released is a logistical process. i suspect this will happen in the coming days. and certainly before trump's inauguration. the pressure coming from the incoming administration, has been important to motivate all parties and get this deal over the line. >> interesting how you brought up the angle of the re-election of donald trump for this story. exactly, when you think about that, what i would like to understand is we heard comments from the biden administration, from the trump team, as well. i would like to understand whether there's a sense which camp can actually claim victory if this cease-fire is agreed? >> i think in this regard, there's a victory for both

camps. it's mutually beneficial for the biden administration, after providing support for israel's war in gaza in 18 months to bring it to an end. and showcase it has supported the s and delivering the final cease-fire. president biden will go down as being responsible in the middle east for supporting this war and not providing adequate pressure on the israeli government. and for president trump, if you look at his transactional approach and the fact he doesn't want to be responsible for this war on his watch, this kind of momentum has been really important to deliver something quickly, urgently, but ultimately what is needed for palestinians in gaza and of course for israelis that have been waiting for their loved ones to come home, those that

have been held in detention as hostages for this really unacceptably long time. >> i would like to understand, how delicate this potential cease-fire is. when i was reading some of the proposals on what's on the table, the fact there are likely to negotiate just the second stage of this cease-fire during the third week of it, it just seems that all of these pieces of the puzzle are very delicate to put together. >> you're quite right. this is not a final proposal by any means. 16 days into what is a truce effectively, all of the mediators must recommence negotiations on the condition that the truce has been held and all sides have met the obligation. this is very fragile. and after 16 days, further negotiations will take place for further hostages to be released.

further palestinian prisoners to be released. ultimately, the big question mark here is the longer-term plan. there is in longer term political horizon yet for palestinians. there is no israeli commitment to a two-state solution. there's a complete uncertainty as to who is going to manage the governance in gaza. >> exactly there that i would like to focus now. when you think about the long term, is there any sort of scenario here that is most likely when you think about what could happen in gaza going forward? >> there are a lot of proposals out there. the american proposals, our proposals. certainly what we need is a palestinian proposal on what should come next. obviously, israel has no interest or will show no tolerance to hamas playing a leadership role in gaza. there's a need for the palestinian authority that has

control over the west bank, to undergo reform and accountability processes and build back legitimacy to potentially step in for this moment. there's a lot of challenges there. mahmoud abbas has been leading the palestinian authority for 20 years. we haven't seen open elections. and you know, again, over the course of this past 15-month, 16-month war, we haven't seen positive and open steps towards reform there. i have the mention, there's challenges coming from the israeli government itself. right-wing members of his own cabinet are using this period to enhance and increase settlements in the west bank that are illegal. and it is unclear yet if benjamin netanyahu's cabinet will support and sign off on this cease-fire agreement. and that is necessary for this agreement to be finalized.

>> more broadly, regardless of what happens with the cease-fire, what do you think is the real outlook for the middle east, for the region this year? given that this war has dominated the dynamics over there? >> it's a huge geography. in general, this has been a destabilizing year with the war in gaza, that has spilled over and impacted lebanon, obviously. we've seen monumental changes in syria that are hopeful. certainly, the stability that could come to the lebanese government with the cease-fire of the election of a president and prime minister and open opportunities for reform and better governments there. iran and groups have been destabilizing in the middle east have been set back in a pr found

way. but there's question marks on the horizon for syria's long-term governance process. and the big thing to watch out for in this year would be a rise of tensions in israel and iran, over iran's advancing program. the trump administration is going to double down on sanctions, overnight and pressure. there's of course the potential for increased negotiations between europe, the united states, and the islamic republic to curtail iran's advancing program. and of course, its destabilizing regional behavior. >> we'll see what will happen with the cease-fire. we appreciate your time today. dr. sanam vakil for the northeast and north africa program. elon musk, jeff bezos and mark zuckerberg will attend the

inauguration next week. they will be seated alongside the cabinet nominees. the former u.s. president, barack obama, bill clinton and george w. bush, are expected to attend. turning to europe. the french minister has offered to renegotiate macron's pension plan, with support left-wing lawmaker to pass the budget. this passed despite protests and strikes raised the pension age from 62 to 64. the french budget minister says the government will target an inflation of 1.4% this year and spending cuts between 30 billion and 32 billion euros. we have more to digest all of the french politics. what do you think about the number i highlighted there? are we going to get the fiscal adjustment that france needs this year? >> it's a bit of a wait-and-see

moment. there was a lot of expectations on the parliament. can it give them access on what the governor is going to do and how he's going to tackle the question of the budget? he talked a lot and didn't say much. the prime minister was ousted after negotiating with different fragmented parliament. he turned to the far right. that wasn't enough. he was toppled. we will turn to the left and the socialists and appease them and get them on his side. to do that, he is reopening the pension pandora box. and he said, talking to articlement, he was ready to reopen that captor. maybe agreement of some tweaks. that's what he told members of parliament yesterday. >> translator: i have decided to put this subject back on the

agenda with the social partners for a short time and under transparent conditions. using an unprecedented and radical method. the approach will be based on indisputable facts and figures. i'm going to ask the court of accounts to give us the current and precise date of financing. and the government will communicate this result to all french citizens. >> maybe a clever move saying let's have the unions discuss. they have to get some proposals there in the way to tweak the pension reform. then, they will present it to parliament and we'll be able to order them. if they come to agreement, the current reform would take place as is. the socialists after that said they were disappointed. they look for suspension of the reform. they are wit waiting for more details from the minister this morning. waiting to see how things will happen. it's important because also, there is a contest on friday,

the far left did. the socialists, we don't know if they are supported just yet. but there is play to gain and push forward. we are waiting for the proposals. the question is the socialists are deciding. >> when you think about it, we step back and think about what's going on, it seems like this is a major blow for the french president. all of the volatility and this reform, something he advocated for so long. now, might be changing, as well. >> if that means this government survives, again, they have to decide if it's better to reopen and tweak it or have the government toppled. meanwhile, i want to get you to what is likely to happen later today. we'll keep a close eye on what's going to be stateside by major u.s. lenders.

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welcome back. as we approach the end of the show, here's the three things to get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. eyeing cpi, after an expecting cooling and inflation yesterday. well hear from several members of the fomc, including the richmond fed president. we'll get the fed's latest reading on economic conditions with the beige book published today. major u.s. lenders are set to kick off the earning season staidside this week, with jpmorgan, city group, all before the bell today. investors expect to see a surge in profits after the last two

months of the year saw a jump in trading activity following donald trump's election victory. and our own filed this report. >> banks have come full-circle since the postelection glow. the prospect of deregulation sent the seconder soaring. capital requirements and what they need for buybacks is an open question. there's $185 billion in excess capital, that could be returned to shareholders if banks were required to hold less of a buffer. over the last year, the banks have been hoarding capital, due to a suspected hike from the precapital rules. under the new administration, the incoming administration, and with pending turnover in the fed supervisory role, it's highly likely that new rules will be less onerous for the banks. as a result, goldman says the industry could repurchase its

market cap in 2025.the capital, 50% as tough as originally ly proposed. >> a quick check on how u.s. premarket. we're seeing green across the board. let's take a look at wells fargo. we have shares up almost 3% in free market shares. let's see what will happen when the markets actually open. of course, numbers? however, let's discuss this and have a preview with the next guest. john, great to see you. good morning. first and foremost, i like to understand what are your personal expectations for this banks? when i was looking at the expectations, they seem so, so strong. but is there room here to

actually be disappointed? >> yes. we're generally positive on u.s. banks with the new trump more d. that's almost certainly the case. we are already seeing that when we're talking to our counterparts at the capital market sites of u.s. banks. as far rate environment, higher term premium, is good for head interest margin, deal activity, all bodes well for future revenue. >> i would like to get your thoughts on wells fargo. clearly, standing out, compared the rest of the sector. explain to us why you think that is or why wells fargo can be a positive investment today. >> wells

self-inflicted wounds over the last couple years. if we get any kind of sense that a lot of that is put behind them and they are now on a go forward basis, going to be operating more like a jpmorgan or bank of america, that bodes well fargo. >> how about citigroup? they had interesting story in trying to revamp the business. what will be the message from citigroup? >> yeah. same. each base can have the one overall narrative that we've seen across large investment banks is kind of a reorganization towards catering towards private equity and large direct lending a ton of growth correct lending, private capital. a lot of banks are losing market share in that underwriting space and looking at ways, how can we

inject ourselves back into the ecosystem? banks are reorganizing their teams to more focus on that growth of private credit. >> interesting. i would like to understand more broadly, one of the market narratives has treasury yields. i would like to understand from your point of view, could there be ramifications for the banking sector going forward, if this measure in the bond market continues? >> i mean, in general, the upward sloping for banks. i do think there is a level of ten-year treasury yields, where the market starts to get worried about growth and a slowdown in activity and that could hurt banks from we're at the higher range. if the yield were to get five or

above five, i think people would start to worry about that. in the meantime, i think it's pretty strong.77 on the deal for the ten-year treasury. i would like to get your thoughts on the upcoming cpi trend. how that can affect the u.s. equities today.is 0.3 month on month. if you take the annualized number, 3.6%. and the 3.3. the 3% or above number is still pretty far above the supercore,g we'll be looking at in this cpi print, that's been running 4% for the last year and a half, all of the measures are uncomfortably high, especially for the fed. if we do so, thisdoes

some in line, it puts the fed in a tough spot where inflation, the improvement in inflation has stalled. and the market's really looking for data that points that we're still moving closer to two. but the current consensus number it will be more of a stall pattern. you know, if i think the equity markets can live with that, i think one thing that we are not talking about yet, would be a r inflation for whatever reason, with the tariffs, spirits from the postelection euphoria and we start talking about rate hikes again, it would be challenging for the equity market to continue to >> we'll see here shortly, i guess. >> we'll see, indeed. not long to go. jon, appreciate your time today. managing director and portfolio

manager at palmer square. a final look moving. green across the board. several points of economic data. and over in the unite, u.s. futures suggest a positive start to the trading day. let's see what happens with the all-important cpi print. that's it for today's

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it is 5:00 a.m. here on cnbc global headquarters and welcome to "worldwide exchange" here is your five at 5:00. the nasdaq trying to shake a five session slide. we have a critical inflation report coming up later today. big tech hits the pause button on new year hires as the sector kicks off a very turbulent 2025. also we're getting some mixed messages from europe as inflation data impresses but german growth, that remains in the red. plus big bank earnings coming up. what is a best buy and the latest on the sec and elon musk. just days