jenny, we'll go to you. >> stanley black and decker. 4% dividend yield trading at 20 times. if you believe the u.s. consumer holds up, this thing should grow at 20 to 30%. >> liz. >> health care, strong earnings growth coming. good entry point after a flat year. thank you very much, scott, and welcome to "the exchange". i am kelly evans and here is what the head. inflation cooling, yields strong, thanks strong, stocks are rallying, but is today's action a preview of what is to come for the rest of the year, or a last hurrah before terrace take center stage? we will debate. after months of radio silence, activity is picking up, we got another one today, goldman has listed who might be next and we are looking at with the labor market followed might be. the great migration away

from tiktok. we will speak with one creator on how she is preparing for a possible shutdown and where she will go if that happens. a lot of money at stake, here. don chu, first with the latest on this rally. >> well, kelly, a lot of money being made in this market right now because we have seen a solidly upside pricier for the markets overall. we will start with a broader s&p 500 for the larger cap side of things was currently sits at 5931, a 1 1/2 point gain, so very strong on the heels of that inflation data this morning, and better than expected earnings results. we blow right above that 100 day moving average so far. a key level we are watching right now is just around that 5957 area, we have bumped up close to that area, that is the 50 day moving average now, so again, 5934. by the way, at the highs of the session, we were up roughly 108 points, even up 63 at the low, so a decidedly positive day. dow industrials of about 1/2%, as well, 43,152, a 645 point

gain and nasdaq composite, up 2%, that is 19,439 points the last trade there. we have been hovering around this level the last 20 minutes or so so we will see if there is a move out of that. with regard to the risk assets out there, remember interest rates going up is what drove the corn prices or one of the reasons bitcoin prices fell over the last week and a half or so. but, we are backup to around 98,114. at one point today, depending on what exchange you looked at, we got up to about 99,775, so brushing right up against that 100,000 mark yet again, working with about $2200, again, 9976, a 2 1/2% gain there. keep an eye on those became stocks, and of course, the earnings headliner for the day so far as we kick off large-cap earnings season, has to go to the banks. boy, did we get a lot of them, four big ones out there today,

j.p. morgan chase, wells fargo, goldman sachs, and citigroup. all of them beat expectations, positive story lines pretty much all across the board on the banking side and the capital market side. so, keep an eye on those one and a half point gains all the way up to nearly 7% for citigroup and right now one of the best performers in the entire financial sector. keep it on the big banks, either will send it back over to you. it is day two now a better than expected inflation reports. core cpi in particular, lower than expected. shelter, a sticking point, posting its smallest yearly gain in three years, so does this put a rate cut back on the table? maybe a couple of them and maybe before the second half. let's ask julia coronado, the founder of policy perspectives and senior cnbc reporter. steve, i hate to do this right away, but -- we met two in a row. >> not bad. look at the reaction. what are the odds for rate cuts at this point? >> let's put them up right away, we just refreshed the chart and they are higher, but they are not high in the sense

that if you take a look at it, i mean, everything until may is still below 50%. you get to june, you are at 63%, which is better than 50, but it is not tremendous conviction. and the important thing is, folks, if you are on the radio, it goes may, june, and in december for the second cut. so, just so you understand that december 2nd, we are looking at the possibility of another cut after that and that is still below 50% and personally, i think that is right. i think that is the right way to price this in the sense, obviously, we want to hear from julia, it is a good number, there might be more good numbers to come but the issue here is there is a lot of uncertainty. we have to start an account again about the ed being confident about 2% inflation. >> julia, weigh in here? >> i don't disagree with that assessment. i think the fed has clearly signaled and we have gotten a flurry of fed beakers including vice chair williams this

morning, indicating that they are patient right now. we have seen importantly that the labor market has stabilized, one of the things that really kicked them into high gear, last fall, was signs that the labor market was weakening. since then, that has improved. the last job report was really fantastic across the board, including some new wage gains, so there is no inflationary worries. but, a lot of resiliency in the economy. so, as long as the economy is resilient, and steve alluded to some of the upside risks to inflation from policies like tariffs, and reduced immigration, you know, the fed has the luxury to just wait and see, and take its time. so, i think a june rate cut, that is our baseline, we will see the first rate cut in june and between now and then, they are just going to be in wait and see mode until they gauge what policies will be forthcoming. >> well, you know, it is a sigh of relief, steve, because a lot

of the inflation data and everything going on in the market in recent weeks have really been a lot more hawkish. even this repricing of rate cuts, now we are talking about rate hikes. bring me up to speed? i have seen williams' headlines and so forth, what is the latest? >> john williams is confident they are going to bring the inflation rate down to 2%, but they say it is going to take some time and it could be choppy along the way. we have a couple of full screens that i brought. one is on, guys, the one that looks at inflation progress on the headline. i want to show you why it is the fed has become a little bit more reluctant, and what that shows is the progress has stalled. okay? this is the headline. look at what we did. we went from -- i have to turn around -- 926.4. that is a jump. and 6.4 to 3.3 in a year? and then, we did a very lackluster 0.4. you can see the same thing with the next progress on the core rate. and that is, again, we got a better number today, but if you look at the next one, showing in the back there, obviously

these are far to fall but we did a nice jump from december '22 to december '23, and then we did 0.7 last year, that is pretty good, but the point with this one is how much above 3% it remains. now, take off a half to get to the bce, that is a good benchmark, right? >> sure. >> so, you are still on the high twos when it comes to bce. let's ask julia if she has a number, i saw people pencil in a 0.13 and a 0.18. that would give you on the core, 2.8% year-over-year for the pce. >> for the fed, so people are tracking this, julia, the cpi is the big headline, one that might matter if you are on social security, but the personal expenditure gauge is a little bit more flexible and dynamic, i guess, for lack of a better word. the fed likes to follow it. people are taking from yesterday and today and saying, hey, we might only be up a little bit more than a 10th on this reading which i think is

what happened last month. >> yeah, and they have been more benign and we are more in the range that steve cited, 1.6 for core pce, which is mandated, consistent, and design, and we have the annual rate at 2.4%. so, that is all good news. i think one of the risk factors in the very near firms are the q1 price resets. so, last year, we saw progress stall out as we got a bunch of price resets at the beginning of the year, both in january and then in march, so i think given that backdrop, the fed may, and given the resiliency in the economy, the fed can kind of gather the information on the price resets, the beginning of your price resets. if they are less than last year, they could still be strong, but if they are less than last year, then we could see a jump down in the annual rate and that is what we have on our forecast. we have a nice jump down in january, to 2.6 from 2.8. >> hey, julia?

i just plugged your 0.13 into my -- or, the 0.16 into my pce model, that brings, if that is the core number, that brings your annualized rate to 1.75 on an annualized basis. >> below target. >> that is below target. >> secular stagnation all over again. >> assuming it is the same number for the super core and the headline, your six month is a little bit elevated, but that is 2.25 encore, that is not too shabby. i would hang a -- if i got to 2 1/4 for some sustained basis, i would hang a "mission accomplished" banner. >> in a nutshell, but i actually want to move on and talk about another thing, but in a nutshell, julia, we could have the conversation pickups about maybe one, two, three rate cut this year? all of a sudden, you get pretty comfortable from bringing us down from where we are. >> i think that is a reasonable scenario. again, if we get some good news in q1, and maybe the tariffs

aren't as bad as we are concerned about, then we could be looking back at a few rate cuts to get to a neutral stance. that is our baseline. >> look, and my take on this is if the tariffs are bad and it is more just inflation, that is just me, but -- >> you and i are going to have to chat. >> it is about the timing. you get the price kid and then the demand. >> what i want to talk about is this demand cooking in my head, if president-elect donald trump wants lower interest rates from the fed, i think he is going to have to meet them part of the way, in terms of how he talks about tariffs. for example -- this is crazy talk -- but let's say the president said, "we are going to set tariffs in concert with our trading partners." now, wouldn't that tell you there is not going to be a series of retaliatory tariffs? you can have tariffs, and he can remove that uncertainty in a way that allows the fed to go forward and not worry about

whether or not there is a series of retaliations coming. >> the path to reconciliation, though, i feel is going to run through threat first, threat of response next -- >> then, you are going to have uncertainty. >> exactly. there is going to be a lot of noise in the near term, a lot of chest bumping, and threats made back and forth. that is how you get to those outcomes overall. >> julia, that is going to attenuate what the fed can do, even if we get these kinds of numbers, remember, if the metric remains confidence we are on the path to two, now, i will point out something which we will talk about another time, but john was just talking about this idea of underlying inflation, and that is where it gets a lot of solace in terms of the outlook for inflation, here. but, the idea that if we are going to have even low inflation, but a series of tariff wars, that is going to stay defensive, i think. >> that's right. that's right.

and the most recent news we heard is that they are considering a sequence of tariff increases, which in some sense this is the worst case for the fed because you get these rolling price increases that look a lot like inflation, rather than price leveling out. >> listen, enjoy it while it lasts today, stocks are up my bond yields are down. >> apis under control. >> all before it may be gets crazy. julia, steve, thanks for meantime, very upbeat start to earnings season with the banks today, gpm, citi, goldman, all meeting on the top and bottom line, now up 1 1/2% as a result. let's bring in erika najarian an analyst covering this space. erika, this is with high expectations, as we heard yesterday, the financials with area along with expecting to post the highest earnings growth and they are hearing that far. how so? >> a couple things, balance sheet is better because deposit growth is coming back, card growth continues to be pretty

good and above normal and obviously capital markets activity is really coming off of lows, but the other thing is, too, banks are able to reprice those deposits down as they reflect the cuts that we have had on their net interest margins. >> and citi and wells and reticular as i am watching, particularly drifting higher. what did investors here, to kind of digest? usually it is the opposite, you get a nice reaction and then they moderate that they are picking up some steam. >> so, what citi and wells is reflecting is entirely outside of macro, it is those individual companies getting better. so, for citi in particular, they actually lowered their return targets for 2026, but they went out there and said, look, we are going to buy back about $20 billion, or 15% of our market cap to tide you over. and when your stock is trading that much below book value, that is impactful for investors. and for wells fargo, you know, clearly, that has a makeover story, as well, on the

regulatory side, but this quarter's results really sort of showed investors that they are past being a remediation story and they are going to be a longer-term return story, where they could potentially earn more than their midterm target of 15% tangible are okay. so, what you are seeing on the screen are really those individual banks going from challenge to better. >> so, j.p. morgan, let's not make too much of it, but it doesn't have quite the same path in the shares today, of a percentage or two, and is that just because of size? they put in strong results, maybe a bit of the blackrock phenomena, although blackrock was up 6%. >> part of it may be we are just so spoilt to j.p. morgan speed and raise and obviously the valuation there is much higher there for now versus wells, and citi, and bank of america, so that is a little bit of a ceiling on performance, too. but, honestly, i think the investors are sort of waiting

to see what the company will do to unlock all that excess capital. the printed something like 15.7% capital, kelly, and that is huge. that is a huge level of excess. and if we are really going to be in a deregulatory type of year, then the definition of "excess" could be even wider even for j.p. morgan. >> so, what are they going to do, do you think? >> i think they are going to grow, grow, grow and that is so funny because the word "grow" is not usually associated with thanks, but given where the stock is relative to books, i think the company's priority is, let's continue to build a moat around this business. the fact that they are the largest bank in the world and they have to hold the largest amount of capital and they can incur 20% off of it, it is amazing and i think they are taking those earnings and continuing to build a wide moat around the company. so, i think that is what we will hear from them as we hear from the management teams over the next two months, especially ahead of their investor day in may. >> solid start to the year with

what could be a lot more to come. erika, appreciate it. erika najarian at obs. don't miss an exclusive interview with jane frazier tomorrow, following the earnings beat you just heard about. that will take place at 1:30 p.m. right here on "the exchange" look forward to that. mortgage rates are on the move, this time in a good way. after the cpi report has bond yields down, below seven, where are we? >> no, no, you can only wish for that, kelly, but they are finally heading lower. 7.13% according to mortgage news daily, still not great, but better. yesterday's rate was the highest since last may, rates have been rising sharply since early december. it is interesting, though, that the reaction to the cpi was actually bigger than the reaction in the other direction to last week hotter than expected jobs report. stocks are responding accordingly, the homebuilder, itv, of about 3%. they had been using the second earlier this week after better

than expected earnings, although the cbo did admit a weak start to the quarter due to higher mortgage rates. mortgage demand from homebuyers weaker than it was last year, down 2% year-over-year as rates are now higher than they were last year and it is not just rates, home prices are still higher, and fannie mae just put out a report showing price gains actually accelerated from q3 to q4 of last year, so the good news with the bad news with the good news. >> that is again, we look at the response among the homebuilders, which were facing kind of a difficult three months, i think they were down about 50%, but you get this one -2 punch, the results are better, now they might get a bit of mortgage relief. >> is always hope and if mortgage rates continue to come down, they will do even better, you know homebuyers can buy down the rates but that has been hitting their margins quite a bit and we have been hearing about that in the earnings releases. >> diana olick, thank you. coming up, just two weeks into the year, and we are already seeing a wave of dealmaking across industries.

we will look at who could be next in which mergers, if any, are likely to come under scrutiny. energy stocks are on a tear, oil and gas having its first game in 15 days for the first time ever. our market just is more opportunity because of the oil tariffs. another look at the market, dow 750 at the high and the exchanges back after this.

♪ ♪

with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month.

♪ welcome back. president trump hasn't taken office yet but we are getting steady deal news this week, uso making a bid for roofing. from j&j, abby, and eli lilly. goldman things it could jump 25% next year but my next guest cautions we are still in a honeymoon period. we weight what antitrust looks like under cnbc news .0. is the million-dollar question, dan, welcome. >> people are saying, most likely, this is an administration that will allow for a lot of dealmaking to happen but there is always the chance that the new regulatory

chairs maybe take a little bit more of a cautious approach. >> if you look at the people trump has nominated to be at antitrust doj and head of ftc, neither one of them are dove when it comes to antitrust. there is not an expectation that they will take as broad as an approach as the biden people did, but if you look at their histories, they are pretty tough and if you go back to trump 1.0 and i think a lot of people seem to forget this, his doj and ftc sought to block deals in all sorts of industries, not just big tech it was kind of across the board. more lax than what biden was but it was not a get out of jail free card for everybody. >> and obviously, this is a boom if it is going to happen for a lot of the banks and goldman has a nice list of some of the candidates that might be next. they are putting the odds at 15% to 30% so these are not slam dunks. >> they are not. and let's remember, if we are having this conversation this

time last year, we were talking about expecting a huge boom in 2024. different reasons, because we were expecting lots of rate cuts but we had that expectation. the year before, we had that expectation. in short, bankers always talk about expectations for a big deal boom because they want clients, they want deals. i'm not suggesting that is why the people who wrote that particular report have expectations of such quid pro quo but bankers are genetically operated to try to get deals going and get clients in the door. >> pro has the full list but there are companies like electronic arts, trip adviser, so on, so forth. it does feel to me, dan, something is different. i think we have had more announcements in the past three weeks than what i can remember in the past six months, literally of last year. so, maybe it is because i am paying closer attention. what would you say has been the actual pace, here? >> a little bit hard to tell. i agree with you it has felt that way. the reason i say it is hard to

tell is two things, you talk about those biotech deals announced earlier this week, a lot of those were tied to the j.p. morgan healthcare conference and we often see big deals get announced at the beginning of that conference. we don't know when those are really signed, people wait to get that out on monday and because of the way last year worked with almost an entire two weeks off with christmas and new year's the way they fell in the middle of the week, you basically had no news come out at all for a couple weeks so things got backed up. i think really from my perspective, middle of february is where you get a real chance because those deals are really the ones that we are getting negotiated now, not ones that were already in the pipeline and getting painted over. >> and by the way, the investment banker shares have done incredibly well. you look at piper sandler, c4, goldman, 70%, 80% gains over the past year, so they are anticipating there is going to be more work to do. the ipos are a piece of this, as well. i have heard people in the industry say you are less likely to take a company public if you don't think they will be acquired down the road, it just provides more stories to tell,

more possible excerpts, that kind of thing and on that front it has been more quiet lately. >> it has been quiet for years on the ipo market and for two years. one, when it comes to the private tech startups, the venture capital startups, those are the busiest ipos. there is so much money in the venture capital market and late stage venture capital market and in structural changes where people are kind of buying each other out as private companies, but those big, buzzing names haven't had the need to come to market like they would have in the past. and then, you know, private equity firms and other private companies that should be going public, they have kind of been scared off for a while and i think it will be interesting to see, we have been in the midst of this bull market, they should have gone. most companies that didn't go public even in the past year have performed really well. they performed well on the price and and they performed well on the aftermarket. there has been a bit of a lack of courage.

>> if i were a big conglomerate or what have you and i wanted to do a really transformative deal, i would definitely be watching what started to be announced, see how it goes over, if there is any ushback, if there is any trial balloons floated, if there is anything that shows up in the media, and if it seems like full steam ahead, maybe i'm starting to prepare my plans? >> i think so. and i think particularly on the tech side, somebody is going to have to take a really big swing on the sort of deal that you and i would see and our first thought would be, oh, that might be a problem, from a government perspective. somebody has to take that swing and take the chance and it is very easy for me to say, i'm not the one who has to sit there and put my entire company on hold for six months or a year, but if somebody takes that swing and it goes through, i think the floodgates really, really open. >> the one i am also watching is media because it is not as big as market cap as text, but this is an area that is highly regulated and if you started to see some small, midsize, or large deals happen without a lot of pushback, then you would have to imagine watch out, there could suddenly be a ton of activity. >> there could be and there is

also the political piece to this. we thought trump 1.0, we had the time warner deal and doj and questions of how much of that was about the law and how much of that was about the white house being upset with the companies involved, but i absolutely agree with you. everybody is looking at these animal spirits, everybody wants to do deals, the conditions are good for it, but everybody -- there is still a little bit of hesitation and you are going to need to see a couple get announced, go through the process, and get to the other side. >> exactly. mid-february, we will see how things look and give it three, four weeks to see if this trickle turns into a flood. dan, thanks. appreciate it. coming up, big tech is rallying with the rest of the market today, but openai just released a new chatgpt feature that puts it into direct competition with siri, alexa, and google assistant. we will tell you what it is and who has the most to lose from that, next. as we head to break, pelletier shares growing higher, posting two days of gains for the first time since christmas eve, when the shares hit an allimhi-te gh before sliding 16% over a stretch of 10 down days of 11.

we are back on "the exchange" after this. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything.

welcome back to "the exchange" i am brian with your cnbc updates.

good news out west, cal fire saying there is little to no growth with the eton and palisades fires. there is still no clear answer as to what started these deadly fires. during the c, pam bondi, trump's pick for attorney general saying she would not enforce a ban or declining to see if she would enforce a ban of tiktok, telling the ommittee she couldn't discuss "pending litigation." remember, unless the supreme court jumps in, tiktok will be banned in america as of sunday. and on a much lighter note, people are going back to the movies. "deadpool and wolverine," "inside-out 2," "wicked," all helping turn a billion-dollar deficit into just a $300 million deficit. take that as you will, by the way, disney taking the most ticket sales, about 25% of domestic u.s. market. coming up on "power lunch" we will talk more about how l.a. residents are trained to apps

on their phones to stay up-to- date and safe during the wildfires. kelly, i will see you in about 28 1/2 minutes. >> brian, thank you very much, looking forward to it. the war between a.i. chat bots will intensify this year, openai announcing yet new features, chatgpt can be used to schedule reminders and automate tasks. who does that threaten, exactly? deidre has the latest in tech check. >> that is kind of the point, a.i. president and cofounder greg brockman, he summed up the future as "baby steps on the way to agents," perplexity ceo was more blunt writing, "we wanted a.i. and instead got a natural language powered alarm clock." because tasks really is as simple as it sounds, scheduled prompts for things like weather updates or reminders to book appointments. the reason we are highlighting it now, in tech check, is because the notion itself that this is incremental, not a breakthrough, has applications for the a.i. trade at large. over the last few years, we have been fed these a.i. demos from openai and others that showed a different kind of

generative a.i. world one in which your a.i. assistant can manage your entire schedule, coordinate complex tasks across multiple apps and even make decisions for you based on personalized contacts and preferences. this really highlights that we are still a long way from that and tasks is a reminder that 2025, or maybe a reminder, that 2025 will be slow and steady, as well, so don't expect the big use case breakthroughs to materialize, if this is any indication. this is not to say that incremental progress isn't also interesting or important. tasks moves chatgpt to a new space, making it a reactive tool, versus a proactive one, that will compete with existing digital assistants that have been slowed to upgrades, like amazon's alexa powered devices, which is the current market leader in a.i. assistance. the company telling fte that there are still technical challenges they need to overcome before they can really roll this out. and apple, a recent report saying a fully revamped siri may not even be launched this year.

incremental progress, kelly, it may be how openai maintains momentum. so, even though this is baby steps, cut could end up being a lot especially when the incumbents in the space like voice assistants are moving relatively stellar. >> let me make sure i follow. they announced the ability to schedule reminders and automate tasks, but that is seen as a direct it -- hit against alexa and siri? >> yes, because it is doing something that is proactive. alexa can already do these things, you say, "set an alarm," "tommy what the weather is," i don't know if they can do both of those things at the same time, but essentially they have this type of capability even if it is lesser then. the key here is that openai is becoming something that is more proactive. you go to the website or open your app and ask a question and it responds, this moves it into a space where it can do things for you. you are getting closer to the agent space and competing to some of those voices distance -- voice assistants. >> you wonder if they get into

the hardware front. >> that is a key question. >> deidre, thanks. deirdre bosa protect check. coming up, crude oil hitting its highest level since august, quietly hovering near $80 a barrel and this is with the gaza cease-fire today. my next guest sees plenty of opportunity in the energy space, especially if the trump administration's tariffs on canadian oil go into effect. he will join us next to make his case. as we head to break, look at the quantum computing stocks rallying again today. microsoft has declared that 2025 is the year to become quantum ready. this group has been under pressure since last week when nvidia said we are years away from useful quantum computers but names like ionq and trend 18 are still up four fold in the last fr oumonths. we are back, after this. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought

we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

welcome back. energy has been surprisingly strong this year, but today we are probably seeing a rally with the dow, s&p, and nasdaq high with yields stronger and

nasdaq trying to break a five- day losing streak, so what is the preview for 2025, especially with tariffs around the corner? joining me to try to enter that is calls me, let's talk energy for a second because energy prices have everyone's attention today and you have some interesting ideas about how to invest in that space. welcome. >> yeah, thanks for having me, kelly. the good part, if you were standing in front of me, this is not my first rodeo. we had a lot of similar conversations around the idea of tariffs, or i will call it antidumping duties. in 2016, when trump came to power, it was soft with lumber and they refer to that as the soft with lumber dispute that happened back then. stockmarkets are highly elastic, and so, these movements are being priced into securities markets immediately. for example, two days ago, you could finance mega energy, or

kona up in canada that moved off this news for the idea of tariffs on canadian oil. at the same time, how commodity markets react is they just reduce supply and it takes time. the problem is once you reduce supply because of lower prices from tariffs, it doesn't come back immediately, so we think this causes a big supply issue in the long run, though. >> i think what you are saying is really interesting, cold, as we are heading into this trump 2.0. you are saying the tariffs that we launched against canada on lumber in 2016 made prices higher for us and benefited canadian producers like west fraser. >> correct. >> so, where would you be investing, now? if you wanted to take advantage of what might be similar movements on a larger scale, this time around? >> yeah, i think the general principle you should always follow as an investor, is don't look where things look the greatest, look where things look the worst. so, for example, the oil market, ending last year,

looked pretty weak to people, people were pretty scared of it in general, but then you walk into this year and you slap on the idea of tariffs on canadian oil, pretty miserable, kelly. for us, kelly, that is a dream. you are getting negative sentiment, people do want to touch the stocks and the reality is it is really tough to change supply. so, to your point on lumber, the market swallowed with it being over 30% tariffs, they swallowed that. how? prices went higher. if you look at 2016 to 2020, prices were well above where they started at during that tariff discussion and ended up going into the profits and free cash flow of those canadian producers. we still own west fraser, it has been a wonderful investment. >> so, you bought the canadian lumber company. are the oil companies that you like, then, are those canadian names? >> correct. our biggest is make energy, a single asset producer in kristina lake, they produce what they call heavy oil or heavy crude which is where you literally steam up the tar and

you get oil out of it. so, that is a pretty common process of there, that is the kind of oil we are talking about, it is not sweet crude that we have in the permian. the other name down there is jeff kona, independent producer. the canadian producers, like imperial, they are a little bit less affected. so if the spread is blown out between wti and western canada select oil, those refiners get to buy the oil cheaper and if gasoline prices don't get tariffs, they will collect more margins. so, we are all under the heading of, if you say it, it is like christ said it, it becomes red letter version of king james. the problem is, what actually will play out might be different. we love how people are leading the securities because the idea of trump and anything he says, it is like sugar, spice, and everything nice. it just sounds wonderful right now. the question is what will actually happen. security markets are moving far quicker than commodity markets are. >> what you think will happen to the u.s. energy space? i know you and bill -- i forget which one he actually mentioned, oxley was a big one. so, what you think happens to the u.s. producers amid higher

tariffs on canadian oil or elsewhere? >> it is going to be higher prices. higher prices coming across the border from canada you will quickly recognize that america is not producing more oil, we are flatlining oil production. look at the saudi's. why are they so comfortable allowing themselves to maintain their supply? because they do not believe trump. the -- they do not believe "drill, baby, drill." it is the energy investors themselves who decide to drills. if you look at energy increases to x, you will watch a falling stock price. so, again, the stock market is deciding very quickly whether we are going to drill or not. they are voting resoundingly "no." a very different political rhetoric. >> we saw how that drill mentality blew up during the last shell cycle, but with oil prices heading higher, does that change the calculus? does that potentially incentivize more investors in management teams to say, all right, we are looking at potentially demand growth because of tariffs, we are

getting a higher oil price, maybe this can be justified? >> yes, price always regulates price. prices go higher, supply will show up. what is going on, though, demand is continuing to grow. we are not dealing with declining demand in oil products, for example. the question is, as we go from today to 10 years from now, there will be 10 more oils of the man, who will supply that? opec can do about 3 to 4 million. the other five or six, right now, america will not be meeting that need because we will not increase our cap ex budgets. so, to your point, that has to be met, and price will always cause people to produce more. $90-$100 per barrel is where i could see opec saying, we will bring some supply back to the market but right now in the american energy space, look how the stocks did late last year, kelly. are you telling me that oil majors are going to come out and increase cap ex budgets massively while investors are selling their stock? not a chance. >> we will see. i agree with you but that is a

good way to look at the opportunities from an interesting point of view. it might be more north of the border than here. yeah? go ahead. >> i was just going to add one more thing, look at the 10 year treasury moving higher right now. people are beginning to worry about that, we are not near the liz trust moment where they are freaking out about it but it is fun to sit here, kelly, and watch the 10 year climb higher, and oil climb higher and people are losing some money and you are just smiling ear to ear with these energy stocks. i think it is a way to get rich, when circumstances are really poor for a lot of investors. but again, it is a very narrow view, but i think it is right. >> i was just going to say, cole, i would have to see the cowboy boots to know how many rodeos you have actually been through. >> that means you have to come to phoenix. the offer is open, kelly. >> i will try. i will try. maybe in 10 years. we will see what the oil demand picture is like. cole, thank you very much for joining us today. cole smead with smead capital management. social media stocks are climbing as tiktok's fate hangs in the balance. snap and reddit are up 7% today, meta is the top

performer on comp services. we will talk to a tiktok shop owner about her moves if the ban does happen. check out shares on aviation, falling on a muddy waters report, calling for naiareport misleading. cnbc has reached out to the company for comment. ftai is down almost 20%. we will be right back. i feel you. and...i know you. gold bond. get in touch with irresistibly touchable skin.

what if there was a cruise that felt like no other? a cruise created by foodies— for foodies. one chef for every 10 guests, every meal prepared to order, and every plate a personal discovery. ♪♪ welcome to the world of oceania cruises, the world's greatest cities, and off the beaten path secrets. one memorable bite and toast at a time. it's more than a feeling. it's more than a cruise— it's oceania cruises.

welcome back to "the exchange" as we watch this market rally play up. the dow up 750 at the highs and just off those levels now so we are just hanging onto it, the best performers today, the russells and nasdaq, forced to see a level on the tenure. blair initiated coverage with an outperforming rating on both firms. saying they could win in the changing financial landscape and those shares up about 5%. credit card firms amex and discover financial also ge, pernilla, rg energy, and vista

hitting all-time highs today. if you look at across the market, vista was the second best performing stock in the s&p behind palantir last year. as of today it is now the fourth best name year to date behind constellation, walgreens, and texas specific land corp. so, it's a strong run continues. coming up, the supreme court failing to deliver a decision on tiktok today. we are now just four days away from a potential ban. we will talk to the founder of a popular tiktok shop, beach waiver, and her method for followers. >> one of the first grants to door and joined tiktok shop with over 1.3 million and we have a phenomenal community of creators and even though there a tisiktok ban looming, we will continue to live stream as long as we can. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere.

♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. getting there starts here.

welcome back to "the exchange". about 100 million americans shopped on a social media app last year, with sales surging 26% year on year. the firm saying the launch of tiktok shop at the end of 2023 was single-handedly responsible for that spike. our next guest has worked closely with tiktok before the launch of shop and was one of its earliest adopters, and her business, beachwaver, raked in nearly 1.5 million orders in

less than two years. joining me to discuss how she will pivot if tiktok goes dark on sunday, is sarah, the ceo and founder of beachwaver. sarah, to repeat, i never thought we would get this far too basically almost going dark, and maybe we won't, but i can't imagine if my literal livelihood was at stake. how are you feeling right now? >> it feels like the end of an era. we started in 2019 making some viral videos, a smr, just trying to showcase new product development and for us, we have built a phenomenal community. we have live streamed over 1000 hours on the platform. we have one .3 million followers. and it has really felt like we have built this community that really supports us as an independent, women-owned company. and for us, it has been so much fun, right? we have been able to bring in a lot of creativity to our brand, we have been able to launch a lot of roducts, like you said, over 1.3 million orders on the

app is crazy. and we have been able to support our company, based here in illinois. we have a phenomenal distribution center where we do send all of those orders out directly, through tiktok, through us. and we also have affiliates, we have over 1000 affiliates that are creating content, that are selling -- >> holy cow! so, sarah, not to embarrass you here, but according to market pulse, your sales per month are almost $3 million on this. is that in the range? you don't have to tell me, but, so, what are you going to do? >> yeah, so, we have been around for 15 years, we are women-owned, i started with my two sisters and for us, we have always had an established company. prior to that, we were on qvc, and retailers like target and alltel. so for us, we really have been shifting back to that strategy of in person experiences. we also have a lot of other social media platforms that we

have been very established on, including instagram. so, for us, we love this community, we really have been able to develop it, but we are looking forward to giving a lot of energy to some of the other platforms that are available. >> yeah, you don't seem that concerned, so i give you credit. you morph and you morphed again, and what does that look like? instagram reels? youtube? snap? what is it? >> yeah, instagram reels right off the bat. youtube, youtube shorts is very similar to a tiktok strategy, so i am obviously very concerned because of the community, but we have such a strong community that we have done some things like adding a link and url on tiktok, we have been going live almost daily just to let them know where the brand will be and where they can join us, so we have a crm program, sms, email, really asking our fans, our followers, our creators to come join us on these other platforms and if they are an affiliate making commission, there is a lot of opportunities on our website, on amazon, other places that they continue to build their business by selling and creating

videos based on really cool viral products like ours. >> we were showing some of your clips, i can't imagine what your content budget is or how many people must be involved. i tried to post a little on tiktok and it is exhausting! you must really have a lot of people helping out with this. >> yes! the cool thing about tiktok is it doesn't take a huge budget. we literally turn the camera on and whatever most viral shows up, we are incredibly proud of, actually, it made my brother kind of a tiktok star which is kind of funny, it was in our warehouse, in our distribution center in the illinois we started a show called "the packing show." we would get makeup brands and then we would launch a product, and then we would pick one of our favorite local charities and this show went viral. we did three seasons. there is tom. we did three seasons, where we would actually pack their orders live. as you saw, we hit 45 million

likes on friday, and for that, we have been able to donate $100,000 to local charities. so, that has been something our business is very proud of. there is a great charity called the legacy fund which helps american cheese farmers. the winds are tough. >> i need to cut you off the maturity part, sarah, but congratulations on everything you have built and congratulations on this transition. that is it for "the exchange". i will see you on "power lunch", next. and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.