the second opinion people. ♪ welcome to "power lunch." here's what's ahead. is oil ready to head back to 100 or take a tumble?

trump and the saudis may have a master plan. what about russia or iran? we go to riyadh live for you. tiktok, you do stop. the social media company could be whacked in a couple of days, but there could alsol coming on. one of the most successful entrepreneurs will chime in. oh yeah, we have the interview of the ceo of a little company called bank of america. >> thanks. the major averages are lower, just fractionally, though a little more significant for the nasdaq. the chip stocks are moving higher, helped by taiwan semi reporting the record profit driven by a.i. taiwan semi up 4.5%. we'll keeping an eye on the yield of the 10-year note, calming amid the inflation reports. below 4.6% after moving kind of testing more toward the 5%

range. although, again, this not doing a lot for markets today but should help, brian, over the medium term. >> lower rates, higher stocks. we'll see. kelly, thank you very much. see you back at the desk in a moment. we begin this hour, though, folks, with energy. what you pay at the pump may hang in the balance. there is a lot going on. as oil sort of stubbornly hangs around 80 bucks a barrel, despite incoming president trump's promise to pump more and drive the price down. as we headlined yesterday, there is hope for a broad cease-fire between israel and hamas. now, some things they do need to be finalized, but if we get the cease-fire, that would be good news. but that is not all that is going on around the world. you've got trump wanting to go after iran and venezuela, reinforcing sanctions. also, the biden white house recently going back after russia, trying to hit putin more where it hurts, in the pocketbook. threats of tariffs could mean canadian oil gets more

expensive. incoming president trump wants to throw a 25% tariff on all of those barrels. that is not all that is going on in energy. just today, british energy giant bp laying off thousands of workers. the new ceo unable to help the lagging stock, at least over the past year. bp strategy continued to get called into question. and all of this leading us right back to opec and the saudis. when they might put long-delayed oil production back on the market. let's wrap it up and talk about all that. here now to lead us off and address the geopolitical side, president and ceo of the atlantic ouncil. joining us from riyadh, head of global strategy at strategy markets. i think it is 1:00 in the morning there, whatever time it is, so thank you for staying up for us. i'll go to you first. you've been hanging out, reading the oil tea leaves from the saudis, if you will, and maybe a little from opec, as well. what are they thinking?

what do you think they're going to do about the incoming administration? >> well, there are no indications, brian, from my conversations in riyadh that opec has any appetite to provide a barrel bailout for washington at this juncture. there had been some speculation with washington really tightening the sanctions. the biden administration tightening sanctions on russia on the way out, potentially disrupting around 1.4 billion barrels of russian exports. iran sanctions also set to be strengthened president trump administration. opec would provide a backfill. it's clear at this moment that opec is going to stay the course on their established production plan and are not going to do a repeat of 2018 where they provided a million additional barrels and then the u.s. switched policies, leaving the oil market over supplied. >> as you wrote, past interactions with washington also appear to be informing the opec decision to stay the course. iran and venezuela. back to you, h elima.

the current white house going back after russia. trump going hard, ly about iran and venezuela, as well. if we reinforce those sanctions, what's going to happen to the global oil balance, and i would assume the saudis and opec do stand ready to actually make up any lost barrels? if they don't, we're going back to a hundred. >> here's a question, brian. will the trump administration potentially roll back these russia sanctions that biden put in place? all indications are, based on the confirmation hearings, that they are going to potentially use the russia sanctions as a bargaining chip to try to get concessions. it doesn't look like there's going to be any immediate repeal. the repeals that we're looking for from the trump administration is the offshore drilling ban, the lng permitting pause, all related to u.s. production. there seems to be a hope that u.s. production can come to the rescue, but it is not a

just-in-time producer. so, yes, if they go ahead with maximum pressure, if these russia sanctions stand, that is a tighter market. and if there is no opec backfill coming, that's going to make it exceedingly difficult for president trump to deliver on his promises of lower energy prices immediately. >> fred, one related but am, in a way, broader thing i heard from bessent today, which was interesting, is he said he thinks the president is sort of fed up with sanctions and way they're pushing sanctions out of the u.s. dollar system, where that's the tool. basically a tool of national defense. he said, you know, he thinks that's why the president wants to use tariffs instead. just talk about the implication of that. okay, if we're not going to push further in the directions of sanctions, maybe go tariffs instead, what does that mean? >> well, they're worried about dollar dominance over time and that sanctions could cut into that. tariffs is not also the best weapon to replace it.

you could also turn to export controls. there are a lot of different weapons in the u.s. economic arsenal. the question is, which one of them gets you closest to the results? i think it's different in every different situation. and with iran, you're talking about iran, you're in a situation now that iran is in the weakest position it's been in 30 years. its air defenses are down. it's been shown that it can't successfully attack israel. its proxies, hezbollah and hamas, have been designated. this is a time you can put maximum pressure on iran to get a better deal, not just on its nuclear aspirations, but also on its regional behavior. this is really the time to put greater pressure on iran, and that would be the trump administration's first instinct. >> you know, fred, we've already had and we still have sanctions on iran. yet, we know that their oil exports went from about, call it

one ship a day, effectively, couple years ago, to five or six now. what have we done wrong with the -- sanctions haven't changed. the enforcement of the sanctions has changed. >> you're absolutely right. it's great to always be on with helima, and she can talk more deeply about this than i can. you had a president running for re-election, president biden, became vice president harris, but none of them wanted to see inflation and the rise of energy prices, so i think there's going to be more room, although president trump also is not going to want inflation, but there's going to be more room to enforce sanctions on the trump side than perhaps president biden gave himself room to do. one thing i hope we talk about with helima on, with everything we're talking about of economic impact, and even the cease-fire and the hostage release, the real prize is saudi/israeli normalization. that could unlock a middle east

economic boom of some proportions, and it's all been teed up. secretary of state tony blinken was at the atlantic council this week. he said it's all done except for the cease-fire deal and israel's acceptance over time of a palestinian state. now, we've got a long way to go for that, but the fact that it's more or less been negotiated, the strategic agreement between the u.s. and saudi arabia that would get us to normalization, that would be a huge, historic accomplishment. >> helima, weigh in on that. >> absolutely. i mean, we really do have to see the cease-fire that is an absolute prerequisite to normalization. they do need to see, you know, clear language and determination on that path to a palestinian state. it doesn't have to be firmly established, i think, along 67 borders, but they do need to see a path for palestinian state. because that is something that's very important to the populations in these countries. but back to the issue that brian mentioned on non-enforcement of iran sanctions, i do think that also underlines why opec is not

particularly enthusiastic to open the tax right . i think there is a view that if washington had been serious about the russia sanctions, they would have imposed them, you know, right after the invasion of ukraine. that they waited until the last-minute of the administration, did not enforce iran's sanctions. coming to opec now and saying, "solve our problem," is falling on deaf ears. >> quickly, we have to go, but is vienna over, helima? a picture with the opec secretary general, moving to riyadh. is riyadh the new vienna? >> i think riyadh is sort of boomtown right now, and a lot of people are coming. i do hold out hope that we will be back in vienna for the next opec meeting. >> never had an invitation to riyadh. love to go someday. fred kempe and helima, it's like 1:00 in the morning there. >> i'd be curious to check it out. >> "power lunch" live in riyadh,

why not? let's do it. bofa beating on earnings. debt is the name of the game. loan income on the rise. the stock is down 2% as the market sells off. we'll hear from ceo brian moynihan. first, details on key movers in three-stock lunch. it's early today. in fact, it's right after this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

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for all those making it big out there... ...shouldn't your mobile service be able to keep up with you? get wifi speeds up to a gig at home and on the go. introducing powerboost, only from xfinity mobile. now that's big. it's time now for today's three-stock lunch where we hit three different stories, talk about why they matter to you, and what to do with the names. here on set with us is cnbc contributor victoria green, chief investment officer of g squared. how many times do we talk about this? good to have you in person. >> thanks. >> target raised the q4 sales forecast. nice holiday shopping demand in stores but shares are selling off. cut profit guidance in november after the biggest miss in two years then. what do you do here? >> sell for me.

look, i don't like the stock right here. number one, they're too much in discretionary. 50% of the goods sold versus a costco or walmart where you have grocery and hard goods being sold. how much did you have to discount to get those sales growing? how much did you put on? if you didn't raise the profit guidance but raised sales, you definitely had a lag there. for me, it's a sell. i'm a little worried i'm going to be retesting the 121 level. also, tragically, they do have a large exposure to the california wildfires. jpmorgan was mentioning 66 stores in the area. that could be a net drag on them, as well. >> you are a texan. >> i am. >> you do not live in dallas, but you're still a texan. >> i like you differentiate texas and dallas. >> well, they're very different places, trust me. dallas is more like california in texas. anywho, southwest airlines based in dallas, texas. people used to love it. stock is down almost half from its highs of mid 2021. they got all these problems. doj is now suing them over

delayed flights. you wonder, will it bottom out? is there a reason to own or buy southwest? >> i don't think so. it's a sell for me. there are better airlines. if you want an airline, it's delta or united. it's all about the international routes. it's all about the premium pricing and seats. yes, they're trying to shift there, having the board members coming on, but they're losing the very discount travelers to spirit, allegiant, and jetblue, and premium travelers to those who give you a first class seat. southwest is trying to figure out who they are. a discount carrier? they lost the friendly skies thing when they left everybody stranded over the holidays and haven't gotten that back yet. i'm concerned they're stuck in neutral, and it's a sell for me. >> shares down 42% over five years. that's a pretty tough stretch. taiwan semi, higher after reporting a q4 beat, record profit, amid demand for a.i. chips. its partner, nvidia, continues to grow. what do you do?

>> this is a buy. they haven't had the lift nvidia had, and they could take off. they are single-handedly saving the semiconductor trade today. semi has been under pressure this year. numbers were phenomenal. profit is growing. they're saying, hey, we are going to expand capex, and everybody is excited because that expansion in capex means a.i. demand, the high-powered competing demand, which is a huge part of what they do, as well as smartphones and wearables may not be as bad. they're saying, look, there is room for more next year. more and more chips are coming. they do 80%, 90% of high-powered chip production. scale matters. nvidia, apple, you can name just about everybody on the street that uses taiwan semichips. i love the stop. >> interesting about apple. it's down, sliding throughout the day, down almost 4% now. no major news flow. i mean, okay, maybe it's losing the iphone sales crown according to new reports as we comb through. what do you say to investor here? >> a little bit, it is a note

that the smartphone, which apple is one of the biggest customers, they're saying, we'll buy every chip you make in arizona, right? they said, that's a single digit growth, one of the slowest growing segments. people are looking and there is concern. apple needed to blow it out of the water, get the a.i. going, have a fast cycle for the 16, and there are concerns, what if china was slow? what if we didn't see the sales? a little is how fast did apple sell? between the ipad refresh and the mac, i think, doubt apple at your peril. >> it went straight up into the end of the year, and now it seems to be going straight down. maybe everything changed in six weeks. >> it's a critical question, though. apple, ven if you don't care about the stock, it's a top five holding in 300 etfs. >> yeah. >> it moves the whole market, or it can. >> absolutely. >> without a doubt. >> victoria, thanks. good to have you on. victoria greene. we've got a lot more to do. after the break, whether you are

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kelly and i just talked about apple. big story, apple can move the market. maybe it is a little bit, but pay attention. if apple is down 4%, it's hard for the nasdaq to be higher. guess what? the nasdaq is not higher. it is now down one-half of 1%. nice rally yesterday, but i guess today we would say that the tough start to 2025 continues. apple a massive, massive stock, so important. you know who else is so important? dom chu. he is here now with the market navigator. i'm not wearing jeans today. >> no, no, not wearing jeans, but i want to dovetail off this conversation. you'd think with a drop in interest rates like the way we've been seeing, that technology stocks would be higher, right? that's not the case. apple is a big part of the story. bank stocks are getting a boost this week. some of america's biggest lenders and investment banks are

kicking off earning season with a gang. the gains not just limited to stocks themselves. bond investors could reap big gains via the banks, as well. here to break it down is noah wise, senior portfolio manager at allspring global investments. the big bank story is huge because it's the catalyst for this part of the seasonal calendar, right? earnings season, everything is getting going. you're focused on the banks not just because of their financial results but what it could mean for bond investors. explain. >> absolutely. thank you for having me, dom. you know, this is an interesting time. we've got a big period of regime shift, we think. not only politically, ek knock -- economically, but in the markets. the banks play a big part in this, seeing moves in the yield markets, as well. >> if the yield markets are moving to the upside for price and the downside for yield, that could be good. it could be speaking some kind of verdict about the u.s. fiscal

outlook and everything else. but how exactly will that affect bond investors? specifically, which kind of bond investors and which types of industry would benefit for? >> absolutely. so the first thing, i think, worth highlighting, the banks. incredibly good set of results that we've seen over the last couple days from the big banks that you have focused on rightly so. it is not just an equities story. we do think there is opportunities in the banking credit sector, as well, where we do have overweight positions in our plus strategies. th provide incremental spread versus the industrial space. higher quality. also, fundamentally less risk. risk specifically around the m&a environment. it comes back to this regime change. we do expect an increase in deals. that may mean more leverage for industrial companies but means more revenues for banking companies. we see a good relative value backdrop for banks.

the yield side of the story is a little bit more challenging, though. we are coming from a period in 2024 where the markets were heavily data dependent. now, we're in an environment where the markets are policy dependent. unfortunately, the timing associated with that policy is a little bit more challenging. we've seen some good data here over the last couple of days. it's provided a little bit of a bid to the fixed income markets. we think when you take a zoom out, the shorter-term challenges ahead of us around immigration policy and trade policy, those are the types of policies that are going to be implemented sooner. i think those are more of a challenge for the fixed income markets as we get to the back half of the year, some of the more positives can -exert themselves. >> noah, thanks. bank bonds may be the play there. >> you inadvertently hit on kelly evans' favorite story until apple. you love the deal flow. every day, we're not getting the

huge $50 billion deals, but like yesterday, there was another bid for a roofing company. every day, we're getting multi-billion dollar deals. >> not just that. maybe that unlocks or acts as a thawing type process for other bigger deals that happen down the line. sometimes it just takes more deal flow, small and mid-cap size. >> who wears it best, kelly? >> full pants and everything else. >> everything. everybody is crazy about a sharp-dressed man. there's a poet philosophy, billy gibbons. >> i can see the zz top paraphernalia. >> gentlemen, thanks. the tiktok trickle down. days away from shutdown unless the supreme court intervenes. the app transformed industries and lives, especially in retail. small businesses have gone from handful of customers to millions in sales. we'll hear from one such business owner next. ! it's your #1 broker with the best full-service wealth management skills

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm julia rstein with your

news update. the fighting of the fire in los angeles county. the blaze is 55% contained, up from 35% wednesday. the larger palisades fire is 22% contained, an increase of 2 percentage points from yesterday. welcome news comes as the santa ana winds have died down, helping to bring the wildfires under control. florida governor ron desantis appointed moody to replace marco rubio. president-elect trump tapped rubio to be the next secretary of state. moody will have to run in a 2026 special election to team the seat for the final two years of rubio's term. new court records show rudy giuliani settled today with the two georgia election workers he defamed over a $148 million payout. he falsely accused them of helping to steal the election for president biden. the settlement comes after giuliani failed to appear in court earlier for non-jury civil trial.

he says he'll keep his new york co-op and florida condo under the agreement. back to you. >> thank you very much. in the meantime, the clock is ticking on tiktok. the ban is set to go into effect on sunday, but incoming president trump may be looking for ways to block the shutdown. tiktok's ceo is actually going to attend the inauguration. what might that mean? anybody's guess. regardless, tiktok will not be the same, whether under new management or gone for good. any disruption could hit the platform, as well, especially what's called the tiktok shop. along with the businesses that use it, your next guest is the owner and founder of canvas beauty brand, selling 1 million units on tiktok n black friday. even surpassing 2 million in sales in one day. one of the first to ever use the livestream tiktok feature. i'm pretending to sound like i know what i'm talking about. stormy steele. that is, indeed, her real name.

>> yes, it is. >> joining us, coming up from huntsville. stormy, welcome. i'm not going to pretend to know half of what i just said, but what would a tiktok shutdown mean for you, your brand, your employees, and, you know, huntsville, alabama, where you're based? >> to be honest, i feel like i was not being considered with the tiktok shop ban, the morale on the american people, right? i feel like it'd be totally against 170 plus manage people's right to speech, freedom to speech. on top of that, like, it'll directly impact their income in a significant way. some people only find joy on tiktok shop platform, in the palm of their hands. so outside of just financially, we got to talk about the americans, like, emotional stability. some people, like, rely on this heavily, and as for me, we've done $3 million in a single day. not only just us. a lot of people are connected to our brand through affiliates. they make money off of this.

if tiktok shop were to leave, i'd personally consider it to be one of the greatest layoffs in american history. >> what would you do? >> thank you for giving us a sense of what the financials are. we feel awkward asking, like, how many money do you make? we're trying to give a sense of what is at stake. >> a lot. >> we all thought a few weeks ago, maybe this isn't going to happen, and now it's like, maybe it is. what is the backup plan? >> so i feel like no one really knows. a lot of people right now are already omni channel, on other platforms, but there is nothing like the power of the tiktok algorithm. there is nothing like what tiktok has been able to do with tiktok shop. they've somehow figured out a way to seamlessly integrate live selling with a brand, with a person who is sitting at home, who can literally find something in their home and say, i love this. let me tell my friends about it, and generate e-comm. >> have you y ied instagram or other options? >> we've seen success with other platforms, but we've never seen anything like tiktok shop. >> you think they're just better at it?

what makes tiktok so good? >> i think it's the power of community. the fact that you can connect with your consumer. it's the one app, doesn't matter who you are, how you look, what you have going on, you can turn your camera on and you can connect to your audience. you can connect to a person that's just like you, and then on top of that, with tiktok shop, you can tell people about the things you love and generate income. >> i do think as a user and a wanna-be creator, it's so hard sometimes to put this content out there. takes a lot of work. but i think the algorithms on tiktok are better. instagram, i go, you have meta. you have mark zuckerberg. how hard can it be to replicate the algorithm from tiktok? they've copied snap. they've copied many things in the past. just copy this one. >> you don't see her getting worked up about much, stormy. >> i went viral my first week on tiktok shop. very first week. we have been on an upward trajectory ever since. $50 million in sales last year. it was because of the power of tiktok shop. not only that, because of our

products, affiliates are able to enjoy our products, tell others about it, and those people are, in turn, able to make money, as well. when i say, like, to lose tiktok shop, it'll be devastating. i feel like the entire american morale and people, like, it'll be a big layoff. >> my guess is, stormi, you don't care who owns tiktok, i'm guessing. if tiktok were to stay alive but be based here and do everything exactly the same, let's say it is exactly the same. nothing changes but it goes from china to phoenix. huntsville. do you care? >> i do care. and i care because, as a business owner, i never want someone to be able to tell me who has to own my business. i think that's not right. i think it goes against, once again, the american dream. it's impactful. it makes me feel like my voice does not matter. it makes me feel like someone can tell me what i have to do with my business, and that's not this culture of america is supposed to be based upon. i don't agree at all.

>> fascinating. thank you for coming on to tell your story and how you feel about it. fascinating. >> it can happen to any one of us. >> stormi, we appreciate it. >> i don't know if the supreme court watches "power lunch" or cnbc, but it is a different take than the legal argument. there's also, to stormi's point, the human element. >> that's where the politicians come in. supreme court might have to say what it does by law, but the politicians can try to kick it down the road. >> the fact the ceo is at the inauguration may be a tell. even if the supreme court says -- right? the incoming president could be like, let's keep it around. >> could pull something out of the hat. >> storei steele, real name. >> yes. >> canvas beauty, thank you. >> thank you. >> congrats on your success, too. >> thank you. treasury yields are better these days. they're sliding on renewed optimism for more fed cuts. we'll have more on the bond markets with rick, next. >> announcer: crypto watch is respond sr.ed by sponsored by crypto.com.

welcome back to "power lunch."

markets are fractionally lower, off some of the sessions earlier this afternoon. the s&p down half a point. maybe they feel better because yields are drifting lower. rick santelli is out in chicago with that. we have had inflation and best in testimony today. what do you think? >> yeah, well, listen, it's going to be interesting to see when all these picks get voted on and see who is in, who is out. but who really knows what's going to happen? you know, conditions of the market, conditions of the economy, domestically and globally, of course, may alter agendas that are far from set in stone. one thing i can tell you is despite the fact the inflation data really wasn't hugely cool in any way, the anticipation of it, maybe being much warmer, turned out to give us a big move in the marketplace. granted, look at the data, it wasn't bad. core retail sales, that was up 0.7. up 0.7.

that's really solid. that control number is the third consecutive increase in a row. and if you continue to look at the year-to-date of two-year note yields, the short maturities, the ones that didn't rally as high as the long, they're toying with potential new low close of the year. and let's go to the long end now, kelly. because the long end, i think, gives you the most technical information, at least based on all the traders i'm talking to. they're talk about that breakout in the third year bond. there it is. it occurred right towards the end of the year. we closed above the 481ish level. now, let's zoom back a little bit. you can see that on the right side. go back to april on the left side. see that 4.81 area. when we closed above it, we had some momentum. now, if we go to the charts on the intra-day basis, that close took us to a double touch at 5%. without a close above 5%. now as we come down, many

traders looking at 30s and 10s to see where they can consolidate. if we close below 4.80 and the 30-year bond, if we close below 4.50 and a 10-year note, these will be significant levels. those are the areas to pay closest attention to, especially considering, let's not forget, the market is doing big things in front of a big day. the new administration takes over on monday. back to you. >> okay, we're backing 4.80 and 4.50. see what happens, rick. thank you. coming up, speaking of rates, we've got an exclusive interview. e o of bank of america. becky quick bringing you that, live next.

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here we are. oooh. — g'day. — uh, where am i? australia! and you look like you need a vacation. show us what ya got. (♪♪) remarkable. yep! it's amazing. i love it! — what is it? — a wombat. come on! (♪♪) jump! down under, g'day is the start of every good adventure. so, what are you waiting for? come and say g'day. (♪♪) welcome back. earning season is off and running, and so far, it's been a strong showing, particularly for the big banks. really cross the board. that includes bank of america, posting a beat on the top and bottom lines. this morning, growing net interest income by 3%.

joining us now in a cnbc exclusive, bank of america chair and ceo brian moynihan joining cnbc's own becky quick. take it away. >> thank you very much. our thanks to brian moynihan, as well. you saw the stock was down by 1.8%, but that does come after the stock was up sharply yesterday as many of its peers were reporting better than expected numbers. bank of america, no exception to that. strong numbers across the board. investment banking fees up 44%. net income interest, as brian pointed out, was up sharply, too. brian, just wondering what you can tell us about net interest income for 2025. because the analysts i spoke with today or read that are still recommending shares of bank of america are saying they're doing that because they expect your bank to outpace its peers when it comes to net interest income in 2025. what do you see? >> happy new year, becky. yes, we expect it to go up next year. today we told people, our investors and the public that,

basically, two basic points. first of all, flat the first quarter of '24 to the first of '25, with two less days, that's $250 million, the cost, believe it or not. that's good performance. year end, it'll be $15.5 billion to $15.7 billion. all in next year, 5 to 7% growth rate over this year. that's different. the way our balance sheet is constructed, we keep working up the ladder. you expect that to grow. the thing that people get caught about, the financial measurement, the reality is what's really happening is our loans and deposits are outgrowing the industry because we're doing great with the customers. you know, our deposits bottomed out six, seven quarters ago, have been growing since then. rounding out to the businesses. that will continue into '25. our loans, we had $9 billion in loan growth in the third, $20 billion in the fourth. that compounds in and we expect that to continue. it's the great job with the wonderful clients and customers. it is an output, not an input.

>> we have been hearing time and time again the business confidence is up. heard this yesterday from another survey, business confidence up 32% year-over-year. a lot is since the election. how is that business confidence actually translating into action? whether that be investment banking, m&a, whether that be increased demand for loans, what are you seeing on the ground? >> well, i think you have to sort of split that into different types of businesses. for small and medium sized businesses, and we're the largest small business lender in america, you're seeing the combination of their belief that regulatory burdens will be less, the belief that interest rates have come down because they borrow lines of credit which are sensitive to short-term rates and those have com e down, and the belief to sell products and serve customers. customer spending is strong. they've moved fairly dramatically in the small business confidence levels, moving up, as well as the

mid-sized, $150 million in revenues. the bigger businesses are saying, if i want a $5 billion, $10 billion by another company or sell my company, or i'm a private equity firm and want to put a company into the market, that's been held up because of concerns with antitrust and things like that. their belief is with the incoming administration, that'll incork a lot of activity. it can be more aggressive. even though we can't make deals, you're reading a lot about the idea that deals can get done. i think that's good for america. the end of the day, our companies are worldwide leaders across large companies. our banking system is a worldwide leader. allowing them to make strategic progress, ie, combine to serve the customers and clients of america and the whole world is good for our country. >> you returned $21 billion to shareholders in 2024. i think you bought back about 3% of the shares outstanding over that period of time. what's the plan for 2025, and would it increase if the restrictions are loosened once

again or go away? >> so in a broad context, we have three uses for the capital we generate for our good work our team does. one is to pay dividends. second, support growth. three, don't need it, give it back to the shareholders. we expect the $3.5 billion quarterly run rate where we are to continue. we have to let the rules settle in, then we'll figure out what it means. right now, we have 11.9% of required capital level, cet-1. our requirement is 10.7. that's a fairly healthy excess. we run more at 11.2, given the current set of rules. we think the rules are change and hopefully they don't change to be adverse. i don't think that'll happen. all that bodes well. we just have to let some things get figured out. the idea of us returning $3.5 billion this quarter and continuing a clip like that, increasing as earnings grow is basically what we've been doing a long time. >> what would it mean for

michael barr to be stepping down? of course, he was the fed vice chairman in charge of supervision for the banks. he was responsible for heading up the basel-3 rules, too. it was an unusual pushback a lot of the big banks had against the regulator. uncommon to see people come out and say, we don't like these rules. it is bad for business. exactly what you did, jamie dimon, frazier, too. what did it mean to have him stepping down, and where do you see the future of these basel-3 rules? >> i think you heard a proposal that a reproposal, and obviously disagreement among the various agencies. hopefully we can get appointees in that will look at it, come to a determination, and get it done across the agencies and put this behind us. finalization has been open for too, too long. we have such a higher capital standard in our country than in europe. theoretically, we're standardizing two systems which, you know, don't really -- aren't close in terms of the amount of

capital. probably 30% to 40% more capital in american bank for the same risk of a european bank. we need a set of rules. we hope as an industry for it. we had to push back because it was worse every year, unpredictable, and shareholders were saying this industry is hard to investment in because the rules change all the time. we need a set of rules we believe in, regulators believe in, and push them through and get them done. the end of the day, everything you mentioned, plus more, we underwrite the safety and soundness of the banking industry. when the fdic bails out a bank or takes a failed bank and sells it, there's losses, that costs us, and the stuff that happened a year and a half ago or something, $2.8 billion. so we have a high interest in having a sound industry. we have to also have a high set of rules that are predictable, fair, understandable, clear, transparent, and people can understand the cost benefit of adding more capital, the extra capital correspondence we took on through the proposals would have stopped us from making $300

billion of loans. that's not good for america. the competition for the loans will generate the business fuel to help them go out and execute their business plan. we need a group of regulators who are sober, understand there's a long-term play here to get this done and done on a basis we can all agree with, and move forward. >> i know you've had a busy day with earnings, with having to talk to the analysts on the street and having a town hall with everyone there, too, but maybe you got a chance to listen to a little bit of what scott bessent said in front of congress. he is the treasury secretary nominee. some of the things he picked up for no new taxes. those 2017 tax cuts will be extended. he said it is important. also saying he does believe in an independent fed. what do you think of the incoming, very likely incoming treasury secretary, scott bessent, what it means for the banks? >> well, he's got a great reputation. he has been in the markets, been an investor, has been, you know -- he understands. he also understands the dynamics of debt. i think, today, i saw some of

the headlines across your station. i did have time to to sit and listen, but end of the day, we have tough issues to solve. the debt is very high for america. we have to start to curb the growth rate relative to the economy. doesn't have to go down, but if we can cut expenses a bit, figure out a more effective revenue place, keep the growth going so the pie grows, all that is good stuff. it's going to take a wise stewart. i think the secretary that was proposed today, scott bessent, has a good chance of doing that. hearing seemed to go well, from what you all said. >> just this month, bank of america said there wouldn't be more fed rate cuts this year. we've seen treasuries push up higher. the yield pushed up quite a bit higher. some people say it is because of the debt and deficit picture we're facing. others think it is really sticky inflation. why do you think we've seen

treasury rates push higher? >> i think it's a combination of the yield curve sort of normalizing the shape, given the fact that we're going to have a little higher inflation. it'll take a while to wring that out. we always said, savita and her colleagues said this would take two, three years to get it out of the system. they have going down to '25 into '26. look at the math and you can see it working its way down, but it is going to -- they have to have a real interest rate. a restrictive right now still, but the question is how restrictive with this inflation rate? the end of the day, the rate curve we've all witnessed since 2008 or whatever it was, is the unusual part. the usual part is actually having something that starts with a three handle for fed funds, has a 4.5% tenure. i looked it up, 75% of all the days the ten-year traded, it's been 4.5, around that range in history, except for the

financial crisis. so we just got to get used to it. it's good for america if we have higher growth, a little higher inflation. we spent 15 years trying to get inflation. we couldn't get inflation back to target. it's not bad if we can have this happen. frankly, as it relates to debt, it lessens the burden over time because the pie is growing faster. you don't want to hope for inflation, but inflation is not necessarily a bad thing. they've got it under control, and they've got to maintain their diligence. that's why savita said, she and the research team said we don't see the need for a cut until the inflation war is won a little. they have seen it come down, they just want to see it go down faster. >> okay, maybe the new new normal. brian moynihan, thank you very much for being with us today. we appreciate it. >> thank you, becky. >> kelly, back to you. >> wonderful. thank you, both. becky with the ceo of bank of america. markets are closed monday for mlk day, but we'll have live coverage of the inauguration of president-elect trump at 8:00 a.m. easternn bc ocn.

becky will be back for that, speaking with walmart's mcmillen, walter isaacson, and others. we'll be right back. >> announcer: catch the markets on today and every day on "closing bell." ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed.

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we have. >> markets retracing a little bit. apple still under pressure. it's been fun. "closing bell" starts now. >> welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. we're live from post nine at the stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the indexes struggling to hold on to wednesday's powerful relief rally with a majority of stocks making further progress, offset by some pressure on key mega cap names. here's the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500 churning all day, just around the flat line. you see it's almost exactly dead flat at the