can i have another gift. mmm. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." on this friday morning, i'm silvia amaro and here are your headlines. the ftse 100 shrugs off lackluster data and leaving europe higher. china's economy grows by 5% in 2024 hitting the government's target after a strong fourth quarter driven by a flurry of

stimulus measures. and that gives a boost to mining names and glen core approached rio tinto about the largest merger. and the cease-fire agreement with israel's cabinet meeting to approve the deal to bring 15 months of con flict to a close. we start today's show looking at all of the action on european equity markets starting with the stoxx 600. let's get a check of how we're trading so far this friday morning. we have the stoxx 600 up .50% at this stage. we're continuing that positive vibe that we had witnessed already on thursday when we had the stoxx 600 ending the day up

almost 1%. what we are witnessing today, though, is this new change in narrative within the investment community. at the start of the week, there were a lot of concerns about whether inflation was going to go, whether we were going to get those two rate cuts from the fed, but the economic data this week actually led investors to anticipate and forget a little bit about those concerns. so, what we have at this stage as we approach the end of the trading week is a little bit more of a positive sentiment for stocks. let me show you the different bourses are faring at this stage. the ftse 100. we are up almost 1%. the main market in the uk has hit a record today. what we are witnessing here, though, is indeed the narrative i told you about where those concerns we had witnessed a couple of days ago anticipated a

little bit. more broadly, the uk taking a little bit of comfort from the conversations around potential deals within the mining sector, too. we'll discuss that in just a moment. i want to take you to some economic data, too. we witnessed china's economy growing 5.4% in the fourth quarter. that was the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2023. it helped lift the country's full-year growth to 5% topping estimates and hitting the government's targets after the stimulus and boosting demand and fighting off inflation. that wasn't the only indication from china this morning. industrial production increased 6.2% on the year. its fastest growth since april. retail sales also rose more than expected up 3.7% in december helped by preparations for the

lunar new year holiday. fixed asset investment rose slower than last year dragged down by the ongoing slump in real estate. the threat of tariffs from the united states and, of course, with the incoming president donald trump looming over the economy with beijing warning the economy faces deepening external challenges. banks such as goldman sachs are already forecasting a pullback this year. each seeing gdp growth to 4.5%. our very own sam vadas filed this report. >> reporter: china's economy grew 5% hitting the target helped by the final quarter off the back of the series of stimulus measures. it caps off another lopsided economy in the world driven by manufacturing and exports and consumption in the property sector remained soft.

industrial production out performing in december with shipments ahead of front loading ahead of trump's tariffs. retail sales picked up that many hope continue with the trade-in program. in another encouraging sign, the property market continues to find its footing with the rate of declines in home prices narrowing again. the sector continued to drag on urban investment amid troubling headlines from country garden. chinese equities perked up in the morning session. the yuan edged up higher. now the markets are waiting to see what trump's trade policy looks like and how china will respond to act as a buffer. now the 2024 data is out of the way, markets turned attention to china's nual meeting in march

for this year's targets. in singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. >> with that in mind, let's get a check of the asian equity markets today starting with the hang seng. we actually saw the benchmark ending the day up .30%. shanghai composite also tracking some gains today, but all in all, though, the investment community still posing the question what is the outlook for chinese stocks amid the arrival of donald trump at the white house next week. let's discuss this in more detail with our next guest. senior economist at aberdeen. good morning. great to have you on the show. what i would like to understand at this stage, really, is whether this is perhaps the last time we will see china posting this 5% gdp rate at least in the near future with the threat of the tariffs from the united states?

>> i think that's a very good point. we are concerned about the challenges for china next year. i think it's very policing ple see the numbers today. slightly better than expected growth target. what it is showing is that the policy stimulus, that pivot we saw in september, is filtering through, but it uneven. it is not filtering through the sectors the chinese government would like. next year, depend ing on the sie of the tariffs, it is showing concerns going forward. industrial activity and exports really drove that gdp number. there's still weakness there in household consumption. that's a problem for the policymakers. >> what i would like to understand as well is when you take a step back and figure out latest figures are telling us about the chinese economy, what

would be the main take aways i should say when you think about the weakness we're still witnessing in the real estate market? >> yes, i think obviously there have been some policy measures to stableilize the property market. we have some stabilization can be seen there. you know, there needs to be more measures in terms of helping refinancing. it's a multi-year process, unfortunately, from the property sector. that's something the economy cannot rely on the property to help pick up the growth outlook for next year. perhaps targeting household demand. measures that really improve cash flow for consumers, that would be a better start. it would be interesting to see as you hire the coming months

will include the march mpc meeting to give us a policy direction. by then, we'll have a clearer outlook of the measures coming out of the u.s. and the details of the tariffs. honestly, those can change over time, they can be implemented and reduced and some negotiation. the next two or three months will be quite critical in terms of underlining policy and how that filters through in the economy >> interesting. to some extent we are on a wait and see approach until we get to the meeting in march. i would also like to understand where you think the balance is with announcing further fiscal stimulus and increasing the debt pile for china. when could we see investors raising further concerns about whether debt trajectory is actually going. >> i think obviously for a lot of countries, the debt

trajectory is a concern. i think there is less of a concern there for the chinese government compared to other economies. in terms of, you know, look at economies. uk is a much bigger market issue. it's that market focus that could be -- could be problematic. that shift in sentiment. so, what we're seeing in terms of the markets for china, obviously, a very strong bond rally. yields are lower. the financing of debt is going lower and moving lower. that's possibly a help there. the moves behind that, however, are not necessarily that promising because realty is looking for alternative sources of vestinvestment. there has been lackluster with volatility there and domestic flows going into the chinese bond market at the moment. >> i also noticed this last

evident data we obtained pick up in the consumer consumption and domestic consumption. i wonder if the next round of fiscal stimulus will target that. to some extent, could this be a risk for china in the medium and long term, really if they try to prop the economy by fostering consumption in the country? >> i think what we're seeing is that, you know, the consumer demand is important, but think about what they are doing. it is not just consumer focused. they are focused on other materials. i don't think they will just be focused on cash flow. there is another agenda here as well and using that critical

mineral story and investing in strategic industries really investment and struck infrastrus key and that helped boost industrial production and the growth picture. i don't think it's going to be just a pure focus on consumption going forward. i think it will be, you know, a multiprong focus going forward. however, what we are seeing is that so far that policy pivot is not fully filtered through. corporates, if you look at the credit data recently, household borrowing has picked up. corporates are still deleveraging. a again, there are signs the policy pivot has signs of a positive impact, but it is even. with the challenges and tariffs, there will no doubt be some response to that through some

fiscal stimulus. it's going to be challenging nonetheless. we do expect, yes, they met their 5% target this year, 2024, not this year. coming years, it will be much harder to do so and we expect a 4 handle. >> let's await the details of the multiprong approach. we appreciate your time today, sree, senior economist at aberdeen. let's check on the numbers. there last been reports suggesting that glencore and rio tinto had conversations last year about potentially having a merger here and that is actually boosting some of the momentum for the mining sector today. we are seeing glencore shares up 2.7%. rio tinto up 1.4%. let me give you further detail on that story . rio tinto and glencore held talks over what would have been

the largest ever deal according to multiple media reports. the discussions took place in october, but did not end with a deal. the two companies both told cnbc they would not comment on market speculation. coming up on the show, israel's security cabinet meets to vote on the cease-fire deal with hamas. we're live in tel aviv after this break. reaching your goals requires a well-rounded approach. but i do that. i read classics and contemporary. and when it comes to learning spanish. you memorized random phrases. try babbel with bite sized interactive lessons so you nail the basics. addictive games to build long term memory. award winning podcasts and an ai conversation partner for on demand, no stress speaking practice. start speaking today at babbel.com.

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get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back to the show. israel's cabinet is meeting to vote on the cease-fire deal between israel and hamas. g7 leaders said in a statement this morning they fully endorse the deal while urging iran to avoid further attacks on israel.

nbc news dannielle joins us with the latest. >> reporter: good morning, silvia. that's right. it is now a question of ies before things get moving on the ground. the ministers have started to arrive for this security cabinet vote that was expected to take place yesterday. of course, it's been a 24-hour delay. the israeli government saying hamas made last minute demands that among the issues to be negotiated was the names of the prisoners released in exchange for the hostages. something hamas denied. saying they were committed to the agreement. critics of the netanyahu government said it was once again the prime minister's attempt -- frantic attempt, to keep the fragile coalition together. whatever was done yesterday seemed to have worked because it is a question of formalities. once this vote goes ahead with the security cabinet, it is up to the government to vote. it's unclear when exactly that's

going to take place. there are some concerns among the specifically the family members of the hostages to vote tomorrow which would delay the cease-fire deal. in the past few minutes, there was a message by the prime minister's government officials saying they will try as quickly as possible to get this done during shabbot here and not delay things so the hostages can starting released by sunday. there is a list of the hostages could be released in the first stage that has started to circulate here in israeli media. so, we wait, really for this -- for the ies to go ahead. one thing important to keep in mind is the issue of the 48-hour wait. once the government votes, there's a list of palestinian

prisoners that's going to go up on the justice department web site. that will allow the israeli public to go to the supreme court, if they object to one person or another released, then they have a chance to bring their case to court. that should not delay things, but any case, it is still slated for sunday. israeli media reporting it could happen at 12:00 sunday afternoon. the first three hostages. expected to be three women on the list of 33 hostages. silvia. >> still a very delicate situation. thank you, danielle, for the reporting. viktor or ban says it is tie to scrap sanctions on russia. orban said he was waiting to see if the incoming trump administration issues sanctions against the kremlin before a similar move on the eu level.

francois bayrou survived the no confidence vote after failing to gain traction from the far right or socialist party as well. charlotte is tracking all of the twists and turns in french politics. charlotte? >> when we went to the vote, it was unlikely to topple the prime minister because the far right was not supporting it. it had been presented by the far left and the far left was not supporting it. it was important because it was showing dynamics at play and who was supporting who. that is important because it is their line. they are in the coalition with the far left. they created the party during the snap election last summer. it was not standing anymore. they cannot give the benefit of the doubt to francois bayrou. that was a big moment of having the support of the socialists going forward.

speaking this morning, the new economic minister said thanks to the support, it is more likely to be a budget. >> translator: thanks to yesterday's decision, we will at least have a budget and that's essential. what is weighing on the growth is the uncertainty. the fact there is a budget and without taxes will reassure business leaders. >> we can't go too fast. it is not certain there is a budget or certain the socialists will support it, but there is a conversation now and we know one of the key elements from the socialists is the reopening of the pension reform. they are meeting for the first time to put together some proposals to be presented if they come to agreement to parliament to tweak the pension reform there. that was important to get support from the socialists. we don't know if the unions will agree. this is the first step. again, speaking this morning,

francois bayrou said it is important to have potential stability and there is less uncertainty because he said between the french economy this year, they were forecasting growth of 1.1%. they had to downgrade it with this new government to 0.9%. that difference there is because of the uncertainty and instability we have seen. a lot of investment decisions have to be made. maybe we have stability and talks. there is a path forward. we have to wait and see. >> uncertainty is coming a lot from the politicians. they need to own up tocreating. thank you, charlotte. the task ahead is boosting the block's competitiveness according to the tech security member. she laid out a.i. and semiconductor which are the particular focus. i also asked virkkunen of taking

a softer approach is being considered. >> we have a very clear legal basis and regulation rules in europe. we are fully enforcing the rules we have in the place. we have two very important regulations when it comes to big online platforms. one is the digital market act. the policy and the big gate keepers n't misuse their role. the other is the digital services act. it is about how the big online platforms mitigate the systemic risks they are posing for the people's well being for the democratic processes, for elections and civic discourse. there are several practices what they have to have in place. those two important big business legislation came in more than one year an ago and we are

enforcing that legislation. >> right. we are aware of the legislation, executive vice president. what we would like to understand is whether perhaps you are feeling pressure from the fact that donald trump was reelected stateside and he seems to have close ties with big tech. are you concerned about his re-election in this context? are you feeling pressure from that point of view? >> of course, technology is playing a very important role in our economy and our societies as we know. in europe, that's the reason also that we have set certain rules to europe to make sure we have very fair and also safe digital environment for all our citizens and our businesses. of course, we think this is the right approach for the europeans. all of the digital platforms ing in europe have to respect our rules in europe.

that is very clear and it's fair for everybody. we have same rules for all of the companies, for european companies and american companies and chinese companies. >> for more on the eu relationship with big tech, check out my story on cnbc.com. now a ruling from the supreme court over the fate of tiktok in the u.s. is expected to come as soon as today ahead of the app's sunday deadline to divest from its parent company bytedance or face a ban. according to multiple media outlets, president joe biden will not enforce action which will see tiktok immediately go dark in the case of the ban leaving it up to the incoming administration. elsewhere, duolingo shares soared on the sign ups of people wanting to learn mandarin.

spanish learners have increased by 40%. earlier this week, founder and ceo told steve that there is no slowdown in language learning even as a.i. begins to offer translation translation solutions. >> i see the point. i would have learned all of those languages because i would not want p to live in germany without speaking the language natively. i wouldn't want to pull out my phone. >> what about someone telling you in your ear? >> it's not perfect. that's science fiction. i don't know how that will work. everything you can accomplish. it's amazing in the business context. coming up on the show, the uk caps a busy day for a disappear disappointing showing for retailers. we'll bring you the late aer th bak isre. stft

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welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro and here are your headlines. the stoxx 600 shrugs off data. china's economy grows 5% in 2024 after the strong fourth quarter with a flurry of stimulus measures. that gives a boost to european mining names with reports of glencore and rio tinto. g7 nations give full support to the hamas cease-fire with the israel cabinet meeting that

could bring 15 months of conflict to a close. time now to get a fresh check of what's happening across european equities today starting with the benchmark. we are up almost .70% really. we are seeing an extension of gains we witnessed earlier in the session. exactly because the concerns we witnessed with the investment community arlier this week have dissipated. there is a little bit of momentum here in europe. there is a sense of caution ahead of the inauguration in the united states next week with investors still trying to understand what donald trump is going to do, particularly when it comes to trade. i want to take you to the different bourses, too, to get a better idea of what is happening on the european continent at this stage. worth keeping in mind, european

equities have been trading for over an hour and a half at this stage. we have green across all of the major bourses. i have to take you to the ftse 100 where we are up 1% at this stage with the disappear ointin retail sales figures today. that sentiment is a little bit more on the green at this stage with investors taking comfort, really, from the economic data that overall we have received throughout the week. let me show you the different sectors to give you the different corporate stories this morning. we have autos is the best performing sector. up almost 1.8%. i want to focus on basic resources where we are up 1.5% at this stage. thinking about basic resources, some of the ves are related to the fact we got the gdp print china hitting 5% which was targeted. also the reports of the mining

sector of a potential merger in that space. all of that supporting basic resources this morning. let me show you the worst performing sectors to get a full picture of what is happening in the corporate world this morning. we have tech as the worst performing sector. nonetheless, marginally above the flat line. that tells you the story this morning. all of the sectors in the green at this stage. let's get a check of the u.s. futures to get a better idea what is likely to open stateside. they suggest a positive start to the trading day on wall street. this after what was a lower session, really, on thursday. we actually saw a little bit of pressure for the dow, for the s&p 500, too. the story, however, was actually more in the tech space. we saw the nasdaq ending the day down almost .90%. actually, i want to put all of this in context, too. when you look at the numbers

week-to-date, so far, it has been a relatively positive week for u.s. equities. the dow is on track to finish the week i should say up almost 3%. the nasdaq on track to finish the week up 1%. let's see what will happen later on. let me let me bring you back to uk data and retail sales fell 0.3% on the month compared to 0.4%. the ons said the figures are likely to drag on fourth quarter gdp by four basis points. now, it has been an eventful week for the uk economy which came into monday with gilts and sterling and their extensive selling pressure and questions, really, surrounding the future of the chancellor rachel reeves. now back from the high profile trip to china. as bond markets around the world sold off, the uk found itself in the eye of the storm.

the ten-year gilt hit the lowest level since the financial crisis and the 30-year paper reached the highest level since 1998. that spelled trouble for fiscal rules and warning higher yields put the chancellor on track to overshoot her borrowing plans by almost 1.5 billion pounds. potentially forcing her into more tax hikes or spending cuts and thereby, further eroding confidence. in terms of inflation, reeves caught a break on wednesday as the december cpi print easing at 2.5% and raising expectations for the rate cut next month. the data sparked a rally in the country's home builders. there were mixed messages on thursday as the november gdp print showed the economy expanding for the first time in three months. the figure was still below

expectations. let's digest all of this with our next guest. craig, head of rates and cash at london asset management. craig, thanks for joining us. i would like to highlight the headlines from the uk this week. how are you looking at the uk economy based on the pieces of data we obtained this week? >> yeah, i think it's a real challenge for the uk economy at the moment. it is something we have been talking about for a long time. you look at bond yields in the uk and they're extremely high. i think one of the reasons for that is the uk base rate is so significantly higher than many other markets around the world. when you come to talk about the bank of england are likely to do in the february meeting, we think they should cut interest rates. we feel they should cut rates

four times this year when you look at what markets are doing now. they are really pricing two interest rate cuts this year. i think we have seen, as you said, we have seen the health of the uk economy. you look at the gdp print and three month rolling average for gdp in the uk, we created no growth in the uk for several months now. i think that's a real challenge for the chancellor. >> no doubt. of course, she keeps saying she is working hard to boost economic growth in the uk. i would like to step back a little bit and discuss your call there for four rate cuts for the bank of england. i'm just wondering at this stage seeing a potential cut in february is the right approach when we still don't have clarity what donald trump is going to do in the white house and on top of that businesses explaining to us they are seeing higher labor costs as well? >> yeah, i think you look at the labor cost aspect, that's quite

interesting and also as well what the national insurance increase contributions that kick in in april from the october budget is going to mean for employers in the uk. they've got two ways to deal with this. they can raise prices or they can look for cost efficiencies. i think, you know, we have seen some companies suggest they address two-thirds of that through price increases and one-third through cost savings. cost savings will generally mean a rise in that unemployment rate. on the one hand, as you say, we may see inflation continue to rise in the uk slightly in the coming months, but equally, i think the bank of england will start to do is become much more concerned about the growth aspect and rather than focus on current inflation prints, i think will start to focus on the inflation expectations which will dip down below the 2%

target and allow them to cut interest rates in 2025. >> interesting. i would like to discuss what that means, therefore, for the bond market because obviously the past week or so has been so eventful in terms of gilt yields. what is the outlook here and what is the right positioning as well? >> yeah, if you look at, you know, one thing that i think people have got concerned about is the amount of supply that global markets have to digest in 2025. no doubt about it. it's enormous. uk debt sustainability is a concern. you know, we've got almost 200 billion of gilts to consume this year and the same for the next three or four financial years going forward. the dynamic of who consumes that materially changes. it used to be pension funds. they diminished considerably. we are relying on overseas buying our government debt.

what drives that yield, that yield is driven by base rates. if we see base rates fall in 2025, we will see yields start to fall on uk government bonds. that will be more impact at the front end. we would see shorter yields fall quite aggressively, but longer yields remain high on the supply fears. now, what could be the catalyst to change that is the debt management office will revise how they issue giltss at the e of march. so, that again would help bring down those longer dated uk bond yields. >> i'm also curious about the relationship with the number 11 and bank of england and what that, of course, could mean for markets. in the past, moments of pressure in the bond market meant the bank of england intervened,

really. i would like to understand really what you think is the relationship here and what could be the impact for markets going forward. >> i definitely think they want to stay separate. if you look at the fiscal aspect and you look at the problems that reeves has in terms of public spending and the tax aspects, i think the bank of england will say that's your problem. it's nothing to do with us. ultimately, what we can do is still focus on our inflation target and how we deal with potentially controlling that through the use of interest rates. i think, you know, we have seen in the past, obviously, the example in 2022 with the liz truss situation, if we get market dislocation, then, obviously, the government needs to step in and they do that with kwaun quantitative easing. we can do that with market dislocation. what we have seen is not market

dislocation. you look at the ise in yields in the uk, it is comparable to the rise in yields in other bond markets. this rise of yields is over fear of what trump may do when he is inaugurated next week. >> at least we are approaching the inauguration. perhaps the markets will have more certainty going forward. craig inches at royal london asset management. and in other news, pressuring uk firm smiths group to explore a breakup. the u.s. investor which holds 2% of smiths group has pushed for a strategic review of its four businesses or a sale of the whole group. smiths group has responded in the past hour saying it welcomes feedback from all shareholders. looking at bank earnings, morgan stanley beat estimates

for fourth quarter earnings and revenue. quarterly profit at the u.s. bank more than doubled to $3.7 billion compared to the same period last year. the lender highlighted the equity trading business and fixed income operations and key revenue drivers in the quarter. when it comes to bank of america, it beat the fourth quarter with profit more than doubling to $6.6 billion. revenue boosted by higher fees from investment banking and stronger trading results. net interest income rose 3% in the quarter exceeding estimates. cnbc's leslie picker filed this report looking at the latest earnings on wall street. >> reporter: banks a bit of a mixed picture yesterday. morgan stanley, the standout performer, after reporting better than expected gains in equity underwriting following the election. bank of america traded in the red which analysts pegged to

ance for net interest income below what the street had bb been hoping for. i sat down with jane fraser to talk about the multiyear buyback which sent the stock soaring on wednesday. i asked her why now. >> i was very pleased to announce the 20 billion program yesterday as well as an increase in our share buybacks for this coming quarter. why now? capital return is very important to our shareholders. i know that, we know that and we are very committed to doing it. >> reporter: i asked her whether the buybacks were predicated on basel iiirules which are likely to be scrapped or come out capital neutral in the new administration. she said she has to see what the developments look like. i asked her what her main priorities were in the new administration, especially since

she has taken helm of the financial services forum which represents the eight largest banks in washington. she told me she wants to see an environment that allows her clients to transact as well as insuring the system is not overcapitalized for growth. for cnbc business news, i'm leslie picker. coming up on the show, it is the last trading day of the biden presidency. how have assets fared under his term and what happens for the second trump term? we will bring you up to speed after this break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a

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welcome back to the show. the u.s. treasury secretary nominee scott bessent defended

the trump tariffs and backed tax cuts during his hearing on capitol hill. bessent said trump could usher in a golden economic age and it was important for the president to secure domestic supply chains. he rned the u.s. economy on could face a tough situation if tax cuts were not reintroduced. >> this is the second most important economic issue of the day. this is pass/fail. if we do not fix these tax cuts, if we do not renew and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity and as always with financial instability that falls on the middle and working class people. we will see a gigantic middle class tax increase. >> u.s. weekly jobless claims

rose to 217,000 last week. slightly more than analysts expected, but stayed at levels consistent with a healthy labor market. meanwhile, retail sales wrapped up on a solid footing increasing 0.4% in december. key growth categories include autos, furniture and clothing as well as sporting goods. the last trading day of the biden administration and the three indices with average gain of 47% under his presidency. that is way below the 88% average gain that they posted under trump's first administration which saw markets roiled by his unorthodox approach. the yield on the ten-year treasury treasury currently sits at 4.6%. that is up from the week of

biden's inauguration. that yield fell 140 basis points under trump. which forecast trump's tariffs policies will have the biggest impact on policies. richard kelly, head of global strategy at td securities is joining us today. great to have you on the show. i would like to start the conversation looking at the trump volatility really has dominated the markets since really his re-election, ultimately. i'm trying to understand the outlook going forward. is this likely to dissipate as we get more uncertainty from the trump administration? >> in a principle, yes, if we have more uncertainty, that volatility would dissipate. i think that would be years in the making. certainly over the next several months and really 2025. there are so many policy

priorities out there and so many changes coming through. typically, a president doesn't have a massive impact on the economy because what their decisions are are slow burning and moving through. in this case, this is similar to the first trump administration and the markets to data is twice what it is. there will be a massive driver as the policies are announced. >> one of the main narratives and question marks under the trump volatility is what he will do with tariffs. we saw two different media reports in recent times suggesting he might take a gradual approach here. what are you expecting from the trump administration? do you think there is actually some further potential to actually see donald trump taking a softer approach on trade tariffs? >> i don't think -- for those that talk about a softer approach, that's not what i expect. i don't think this is soft in any stretch of the imagination. i think it is very much about the negotiation. that means negotiations have to start from the extreme. you can't start where you want

to end up. when we get into next week, i think what likely happens, trump announces a national emergency. by doing that, it let's him use the economic powers act that gives him discretion to announce tariffs for anything going on. that let's him jump out and put this on the board. the question i have is how broad those will be initially. that will happen. then you have section 301 and section 232 which we saw in the first administration which is how do ideal with tariffs on the back of feel with unfair trade practices or for national security. that requires the commerce department and 6, 9 or 12 months of research. you use that policy to get things in place. you have deeper things on the likes of china thachlt willlong.

>> that's more on the trade front. i would like to understand your expectation for fiscal policy and to what extent there is also a risk coming from that point of policy priorities from the trump administration really and how could, therefore, bond markets react? >> there is trade and tariffs and fiscal policy that markets have to worry about. the budget does require congress and tariffs do not. so, they will come in. we will start to have some of the other announcements go through first. the real not necessarily drop dead date but, the calendar is march 13th when the current continuing resolution expires. that's when you need something in place when you start to making progress and see the priorities and how much money do they want to deficit finance. that's a huge question going forward because there is always

a big push back. we want to renew the tax cuts. they need to be funded from somewhere and make the compromises. we will get that clarity in the next two months. what's in? what's out? is it one bill or two? well we have easy things coming in march and further spending and tax increases in the year. it will would ith slow. >> a few days ago, we were talking about whether we actually are going to see the yield on the ten-year hitting 5% testing the record high we have seen back in 2023. what do you think is the outlook there? do you think that is actually a likely to happen despite the comfortable and easing that we have seen over the last couple days hitting this part of the market? >> i think the debate everyone had back from holidays is what is priced in with trump? you look at wednesday with the consensus cpi and that caused a ten basis point rally.

there is a lot priced in and fear factor. positioning is very one sided in the dollar and equities and in rates. i think that's where our starting point is. there's still now i think a bit more potential for upside or down side with what we get. i think the rule of thumb that's easiest to have in mind is the fed pricing will be very related to the policies that get announced. if you want ten-year treasuries to hit 5%, that is pricing out fed easing. if the policies are ex-tremely aggressive on tariffs, the markets assume more inflation and price out the fed, that probably gets you to 5%. you probably have a difficult time get through that. i think that say higher hurdle. we have that long bund and treasuries at this level with wide stops. i think 4.30 was a good initial move and you can get below 4% by the end of the year, but to your point earlier, that's about more certainty on all these policies.

>> let's see what is inauguration is happening next week. richard kelly at td securities. let's get a check of how u.s. futures are likely opening today. opening on a positive stateside after the negative day on thursday. we are on track to see wall street posting gains for the week. we shall find out later today as the investors digest a few more pieces of economic data. next week, cnbc will be live from the swiss alps in davos. we will speak to policymakers with the e ister and the imf deputy and do not miss our exclusive conversation with the ecb president christine lagarde live at 8:10 london time

wednesday morning. our coverage kicks off tuesday from davos across cnbc tv and the international live youtube page as well. as we approach the end of the show, here are the three things to get you up to speed on wall street. we have data on housing and industrial figures state side. eyes ares on apple after the stock had its worst day since august. it closed 4% lower. it was a rough day for snap. shares ended 5% in the red after the ftc would refer a complaint to the department of justice. that is it for today's show. have a great weekend. i'm silvia amaro. orwi ehae"s mi "wlddexcng icong up next.

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it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5." tech under pressure as investor attention moves the different parts of the market. apple seeing its worst day in months. american oligarch. over what president biden calls a dangerous conversation of power among the ultra wealthy. the interest in the red hot tech falling off what could be a signal to the end of a very brief speculation bubble. plus, the supreme court could