account almost doubled out. >> brenda. >> snowflake, really well positioned from a fundamental standpoint with all the data moving to the cloud. >> steve weiss, last word. >> actually, i don't have the count. my final earlier in the week as rate starts, do. that will do it for "halftime report". we have "the exchange" coming up right now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much. welcome to "the exchange". i kelly evans. the supreme court says tiktok must divest to comply with u.s. law by monday but president biden says he is not going to enforce that. so what happens tuesday when

president trump takes office. we will lay out the three most likely scenarios and the impact it will have on the affected stocks. today, yields are dropping, the magnificent seven is leading the way again. are tech watchers say there are bargains in that trade right now and he will tell us where. speaking of the inauguration, snoop dogg is expected to headline, is that why it is 104,000 because of the crypto ball? there are more crypto policy announcements and one of our guests say the stage is set for going to double to 200 k this year. let's start with the numbers. >> crypto is even higher now, we will get to those details in a moment, kelly. for right now, we are seeing a nice move higher in the markets overall, session highs at this point. the broader s&p 500 has reclaimed the 6k mark, up 71 points, about 1/4% gain there. a lot of eyes, 59 68, the medium-term trendline. we can post this number and hold above it on a closing basis, there are some chart watchers who say at least near- term downtrend like we say in

the markets might be broken, it is something to pay attention to. still though, with the markets up 71 points for session highs, it gives you the indication of 75. it is very positive data. the dow good for 440 points, 43,000 595 level. the nasdaq is the tech heavier side of things, almost 1.75, 19,000 664. now, interest rates are a part of that story, as well. we talk a little bit about where we see these yields kind ago. the tender new yield is 6.1% or thereabouts. we have seen a move back below some of the levels we have seen over the course of the past week just given some of the softer inflation data. remember, we pushed up close to that 4.9% mark at one point. keep an eye on interest rates. that is, as kelly points out, some of those large-cap technology servers as names

like apple, nvidia, microsoft, alphabet and amazon, the five biggest companies by market for the company in the u.s. right now are all generally positive. by the way, apple's ceo, microsoft's io, alphabet's ceo and amazon's former ceo and will be at trump's inauguration. we are at 10 4239 right now, very solid move for bitcoin prices, still trading in the range we have seen over the last couple of months or so. 10 8000 was the high thereabouts. keep an eye on those prices if

they can break out of that range in the coming weeks. >> thank you very much. we begin with tiktok. the supreme court saying it must be divested to comply with u.s. law while a group of democratic congressman, including senator chuck schumer, are still pushing for some kind of delay. the biden administration says they won't enforce a ban on sunday which leaves the tech cord with a bit of unclear to come if we can call it that. it is something the trump administration will have to happen. the president-elect 's plans are not et clear. he spoke with the chinese president xi jinping earlier today. he says he needs time to review the situation. we will game out what will be next, including possible buyers for the eye. we will talk about the ongoing risks, even if a ban goes into effect and looking at the u.s. apps that could stand to benefit, some of which you may not yet be familiar with. welcome to all of you. dan, kick things off here. ♪ ♪ >> look, this is a game of high stakes poker. ultimately, the next move will really be, trump will probably

do a 90 day stay, as they try to figure out how they can ultimately get this restructure. we think musk will play a key role in terms of billion i think would be the price without the algorithm. look, this is a very important matter, especially in terms of u.s.-china relations. that is why the last thing that will happen here is that tiktok ultimately gets banned. they will work something out behind the scenes. >> dan, do you look at the social media stocks today and what you make of that? >> kelly, i think there were some hoping this ban would actually happen. they were hoping the supreme court would ultimately abide by this and i think they are starting to realize the beltway does not want the ban. this is a pandora's box situation. that is why it is negative

social media stocks and ultimately, as this all plays out, this could be a positive, if musk ultimately, really, you know, wins this deal in some sort of consortium. other big tech players could be involved in this, as well. >> we are seeing them go back into meta, pinterest, maybe as the settles, maybe they are thinking there is a chance. what is interesting is to watch the chinese. they have to divest it but they don't choose to device it, that is it, game over. they could just shut it down. they could just decide not to go down that path. >> no doubt. you have seen trump absolutely reaching out with leaders in asia and doing things behind the scenes. they don't want, if this got shut down, could have a cascade event negative, apple and others but it comes down, 70 million u.s. consumers on this. they don't want the shutdown.

that is why i think they are looking for workarounds around it. i think even the beltway, they have recognized, they have sort of set this in motion, i think this ultimately ends up in either an ownership or partnership with u.s. tech players. that is why it is a golden asset to be going after tiktok and i think musk, front and center with x, will. >> i put myself in the shoes of a google or an apple. these people have to decide monday, tuesday, wednesday, whenever the exact moment is, whether to allow people to download the app from the app store and decide if they will let notifications go through on the device and continue to support them, technically speaking. if i am them, i need to know pretty clearly i will have

legal cover for what to do or not do here. this is really tough territory for them to be in. >> it is a huge quagmire. i do believe this will not be enforced as something ultimately through doj and if they will have to communicate that, these companies will not pay fines. remember, it is also the host providers, as well. get the popcorn out. sunday morning, i do not expect that tiktok ultimately comes off of the app store. i think back, right now, is, you know, our view going into this weekend. >> dan, we will leave it there for now but i appreciate the update as you send them out and we get new information. thanks for joining us. some say it is critical testimony for my next guest that sparked the ban at a congressional hearing last february. he said china is collecting information on americans through apps like tiktok to help themselves win the a.i. race. joining me now to join me now, ivan, i have compressed a lot of testimony into the main takeaways there. what you know about what tiktok is up to? >> yes, that is a very loaded topic and a big question.

like i mentioned in the testimony, what we have seen is tiktok is very present in a lot of sites in many places where it is able to collect data on americans that never even used the app itself, personally. and, by law it is required to disclose or might be required to disclose when requested upon and also what we know is that under chinese laws, companies are required to share information. they may need to keep it confidential so we may not even know the data was shared with the ccp. >> the heart of the reason why the supreme court says it has to be divested is because it could be collecting this data from americans on americans and making his way back to chinese authorities. is tiktok the only app with these concerns? >> yeah, great question. tiktok is definitely one of the biggest, if not the biggest

collector of data of americans of everyone that uses tiktok or other technologies where the tiktok pixels are present on but it is not the only one. therefore, if you are looking at it from standpoint point of view, some of the controls that would prevent export of americans' data to other countries, such as china, could definitely improve financial security. >> what exactly do you know or do you believe it is able to collect? i have tiktok on my phone right now and it is we are. a few years ago they said they would make sure was not on the phone, maybe it is fine ecause oracle, they moved the data to texas. i guess it is not fine. i heard they can collect your

contact list, if you access the browser, through the app, that information can be collected. what is being collected? >> let's talk about it in two areas. the app itself, everything you do on the app or what might be able to access on your device on your phone and the second area that is not, was not as appreciated in the past is data collection on websites. when you are visiting a website, maybe your healthcare provider or booking an airline ticket or anything else like that, something called tracking pixels are loaded on websites. they are collecting a lot of information. we have seen pixels collecting everything you see on the screen would be, your first name, last name, your airline ticket, the details, or anything else you are purchasing online. >> ivan, just to stop you on this because this has been a point of some controversy. is that when i use the browser like safari or chrome on my phone, if i just have the apt the app installed or just while using the app? >> that is a very important clarification. data collection on websites is done independent with tiktok in and of itself. it is for the purpose of marketing digital advertising

or promoting products. >> how can they do that? i don't understand. if i download tiktok on my phone and you tell me off i just going use google chrome or safari, completely unrelated. maybe i haven't even opened tiktok in a year, they can still access that data? >> that is correct. you open safari, chrome or any other browser and visit a website, that website loads the tracking technologies amongst everything else you see on the website. so those tracking pixels they collect information about, you know, which patterns you click on, what you see on the screen, and they send it back to the pixel controller, in this case, tiktok. there are many other companies that download pixels. that is how they are able to see what you see on the page you visit. it is done completely independently from the tiktok app. >> is there a way apple or my ios, my phone, sort of platform

itself, can block this? how is this activity allowed to take place? >> there are some technical ways to block it, yes. it is not easy and it is not commonly done. you can use various privacy browser extensions or tools that will block pixel trackers and other tracking technologies from being loaded, but the usage is very low. but there are ways individuals, like you and me, consumers, can prevent certain tracking technologies from being loaded on the browser itself. >> fascinating. again, with all of that being the case, it is hard to see see, if this is the law, if the supreme court is not inventing this reason and it does not comply with the law, what about other, there are plenty of popular chinese apps, including new ones popping up now. >> yeah, absolutely. the same data collection or similar data collection is being done by various other companies that are associated with china or under control of

china's jurisdictions. it is not tiktok. it is not just tiktok or by dance, there are many, many other companies. what is being hypothesized now is in the aia race, to win the a.i. leadership, a lot of companies, specifically china, they do need a lot of a.i. chips and they need a torrent of data, especially americans' data, especially english data, to train the a.i. so that is another place where data collected on us and typically on everyday people can potentially be used to train a.i. models and put china technology in front. >> ivan, really appreciate the granularity today to help us understand what is taking place. thanks for the time. >> thank you for having me. >> ivan tsarynny. with tiktok 's fate, as you heard, in limbo, americans are searching for alternatives. another number of social media apps are

we talked about the big publicly traded names but where else are people turning? >> well, kelly, even ahead of the supreme court ruling, upholding that tiktok ban, we have seen a surge of popularity of the top five apps in the free app store right now. number one for the past week or so was rednote, another chinese owned app, followed by lemonade, another social video app like by dance and tiktok. there are some us-based apps that are surging in popularity. clapper is the texas-based company that targets users 17 and older but is similar to tiktok. users can post video, users can bring followers online and talk to them real-time and host audio only groups, a little bit like clubhouse and they can build communities of fans. then, in the fifth spot in the app store right now is a company called flip, also based

in the u.s. with headquarters in southern california. it is focused on creating and monetizing product reviews and shopping. the company says it is to help creators by sharing money and reviews, a total u.s. app. it is worth noting that total u.s. downloads of rednote, clapper increased for x and 10 x in the past week. there are other apps that are not social video are related to social shopping but appealing to tiktok's mobile users. there is one called real short, which shares short form video entertainment series specially created. that has seen a surge in usage.

kelly, right now these companies are relatively small with all the attention on them and people looking for tiktok alternatives, they are really growing. >> it goes back to who will benefit if this does take place. that is why i am watching the shares of snap and meta, even google getting a hard read on that but the traffic or the ad dollars, will those flow into those business models or maybe some of these upstarts? >> i think primarily the ad dollars will first move to meta, second to youtube and third to snap. i believe that will be from a dollar standpoint the three largest beneficiaries. i do think this is a moment where there is an opportunity for smaller companies who are still, maybe just a couple dozen employees, some of them have been even raise that much money, for them to really gain traction, what it takes for apps, like the social media

video apps to grow is critical mass. the fact that tiktok may be banned certainly gives them a window they would not have had otherwise. >> i agree. all of this has to happen while they figure out if there is a stay or delay them forget it, it is all of the window or not. i don't know. what you think, julie? do you think this discussion and all these creators having to get their backup plans in place, i see people way more active on instagram than they once were because they need a failsafe. >> i think this is pushing creators who felt loyal to tiktok and relied on tiktok to diversify that maybe just not rely on that one platform, maybe a little bit of a wake-up call. i think people will certainly come back if tiktok does indeed persist after this weekend, but i think they are also looking at some of these other alternatives i will probably spend more energy creating morbid portfolio than relying only on tiktok. >> it would be the best moment for meta to tweak the algorithm, make it better and so attractive that people will just a year. why they haven't done that escapes me. >> well, i think meta is certainly investing to make

sure it is creating all those opportunities. i think one thing meta will do is lean more to the shopping then tiktok made so profitable for them and giving creators the opportunity to sell directly on the platform, which is something meta is done a little bit but not as much is tiktok. that is something we talked about this holiday shopping season. i think it is interesting seeing these other apps gaining popularity designed for shopping and product reviews. tiktok creators that have done a lot of that on tiktok, maybe there is another opportunity to do more of that on these more focused platforms, as well. >> i love how it all comes back to congress, too. julia boorstin out of los angeles today. coming up, goldilocks, inflation is:, earnings are off to a pretty good start but just as we are gearing up for inauguration, could xi -- tariffs come in and ruin the party? one says no and the other says yes. they both bring their picks year. there will be a crypto ball

tonight in washington to celebrate the esens pridt' crypto policies and bitcoin is clearly getting the party started early with the game today. our guests see it hitting 200 k by the end of the year. they will explain why ahead. ♪ ♪ this is "the exchange" on cnbc. ♪ ♪

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get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back. stocks are rallying, trying for their first positive week of the new year.

the mag seven is leading the charge, of 2%. my next guest are bullish on the gains, despite the risk posed by the cnbc tariffs. around the desk, tim, it is great to have you. i don't know, should we talk, what about what could happen monday, how those dovetail or not dovetail? >> i think they are important. we have seen the tech community rally around president trump and the dynamic for the sector is one, it is a hiring environment. they have higher growth, i think there is a more defensible argument for at least half of those mag 7's evaluation, even in an elevated environment. >> they are probably not the first place that tariffs will have an impact. where is the first place to think about the impact? >> i think it is a consumer center. if you look at consumer products and light industrial and housewares, these are some of the sectors you have seen,

these are the reports we are getting out of apparel, places where you think about what source is a lot of these subsectors. you know, ultimately, the impact on of tariffs to me is a function of many different things. there have been a lot of very big headlines. clearly, in the past, you would have seen after tax cuts. >> exactly. i think that is important. >> the background will be the opposite. >> tariffs is definitely coming. hopefully, taxes will go up. >> i don't think they are going up but i am not sure they are going down. that is part of the support here. i think we have seen the impact, everyone can look back at the industrial landscape

after his significant tariffs against china in 2018 and 2019, what it meant for bmis and manufacturing. i think we really need to see when the rubber hits the road here. i would argue, it will be a drag on the economy, whether it is the world bank, imf, they have all told you what the drag on global growth is even with the 10% tariff across the board. dollar strength is mitigated, no question. we had our treasury secretary alike really point out the strength or the importance of a strong dollar. i think the dollar will remain strong. i think, if anything, you could see a d vowel around the world as an elixir to, you know, an issue, make your products cheaper if your currency is cheaper. >> i am glad to hear you talk about that. this is one of the more outsized moves we have seen. it's not just that it is up 10% more the last couple of months, it leveled out a couple times in the 1980s, don't know if that affects how you treat u.s. stocks. they do a lot of international revenues on the margin. >> i think you think about this. i run an international etf. if i think about siemens, companies like this, i think they benefit. i actually think they become more competitive and more interesting. >> look at the german stock market which is at an all-time

high. the euro looks like it is growing every day now. >> if you get away from these tech stocks, there aren't a lot of tech bellwethers to invest in. some of this broadening could be interesting. >> there are a couple places you're looking, what are the stocks that jump out to you? >> i want to be in the tech sector where i can feel good about the valuations. for amazon, i think if you think about free cash flow generation at amazon there is an argument that this company can turn that spigot on in a way the world wants to see. i think aws re-acceleration kind of north of 20% is part of what i think the market is expecting. believe it or not, as you valuation for amazon is not terrible. paypal is not old name i think is been over the last 12 months we have had a management change, we have had real focus on products. i think you have a valuation that is very defensible, even though there is an argument about the existential risk amid all the other competitors out

the mac i really like that one. >> anything international? >> i look at some of the places across europe, again, names in atf, names where i think are actually going to be very, very durable in an environment where we may be worried about global growth, you know, really strong. >> are they in the etf? >> they are. it is about companies growing their payout levels, not necessarily those looking to pay back a lot. i think it is a case where you can find healthcare, the energy sector, too. coming into 2024 to stick >>

>> if you look at the integrated oils, i don't think they priced a lot of this. it is a function of these being able to pay big gives that much more broke evens, shall, especially. >> in conclusion, people say this is a great playbook, i will go do some work on this, does it change when we get to announcements next week? >> i think with these large, big multinationals, if anything, their positions may be better. they're not seeing, also, as the places they are seeing a strategic sectors that could be under undue influence. the tariff landscape will continue to pay -- play out. inflation is not my biggest concern for this market, it is a growth scare. replace awaken pricing go. the number wednesday was great, it still had a lot of inflationary components duets but i be -- would be more worried as an equity investor. we will see what tariffs do. >> thank you. check may be trading at a 40% premium compared to the broader market but we just heard some bargains. the names one last time before he sails into retirement.

as we head into break, check out shares of jb hunt leading s&p today after disappointing earnings. expectations are actually pretty good. the shares on pace for their worst day since last april, down

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john houston to jd vance's now vacant seat. that is according to two sources who spoke to nbc news. he has two years remaining advanced's term. cnn found guilty of defaming a u.s. veteran over the withdrawal lovefest kenaston in 2021. zach young sued cnn for destroying his reputation while labeling him as a profiteer. they said he took care -- advantage of afghans to try to leave the nation. the court found differently. president-elect donald trump will choose one of his secret service agents after the assassination attempt last year to lead the circuit -- secret service. donald trump jr. said his dad will be naming the agent in charge to his personal detail

to the secret service director. coming up on "power lunch" we will talk more about the impact of the supreme court decision on tiktok. what happens to it and while we -- why we all might care. >> thank you, brian sullivan. you just heard my last guest made the case on why tariffs and the possible gross gear could be the biggest risk for the market this year. my next guest sees it differently. nancy, it is great to have you here. i thought tim made up point and it is a point shared by many that tariffs is not so much of an inflationary issue, really more of a gross care, could they slow down the consumer or the economy that is looking pretty solid right now. what do you say? >> kelly, thanks for having me. i think it depends on what the tariffs look like. we have history so we know that trump 1.0 initiated tariffs.

i think when he came into office tariffs or three% when he left they were over nine%. at the end of the biden administration, the rate is 10 1/2 or so. yet, we have not seen the consumer holdback in any meaningful way. certainly, from time to time during covid but i think this whole notion that tariffs are going to derail the new trump economy is not accurate, just based on history and based on knowing the goals of the administration. i am more focused on earnings growth. i know that is the point of tim's comments,

will lower growth in consumer spending. i just don't see it, especially with the productivity booms we are seeing and have seen the last 5/4. >> despite divergent views on the tariffs issue, amazon, that is one of your favorites, as well. goldman sachs, this is why i love the market. you can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons or both, i guess we would say year. just going back to the tariff thing for second, the rate only went from three to 10%, now it is 11% or so. when night listen and think about, you know, they have a short period of time now to kind of hit the ground running, i wonder if they are trying to be a lot more ambitious with tariffs this time around. maybe that is wrong. maybe it is meant to come across that way simply as a bargaining point but what if that rate goes up more than it did the first time around? >> i think it is rhetoric, personally. i do think it is a negotiating tactic. let's remember that, you know, we were 100% tariff driven pre- income tax in the 1800s.

so i think it just matters how it is implemented and who is tariffed. you know, in the same period we were racing tariffs on china, we were lowering them on vietnam. so i think it is really a country by country negotiating tactic this administration intends to use to its advantage. i don't think, you know, china is exporting deflation, oil prices, if the energy prices for trump 2.0 come through, will probably drive the cost of energy down, so i think there will be a lot of mitigating factors. if you get regulatory relief, corporate in tax cuts and individual tax cuts say -- stay the same from tg ja, i think we continued to see productivity really add non- inflationary growth. that is can it be good for everybody. >> i mentioned there are quite a few different places you can look to find stocks you like right now, service now is another one, spotify comes up. how would you describe the places where you feel less confident that things will go, maybe sectors or size, that sort of thing.

>> yeah, i think consumer staples is an area we are significantly underway, the only consumer staple we own is walmart. we got out of pepsi and coke. i think that is an important place do not just buy an index, because i think going to continue to underperform. super high dividend yield is probably going to continue to underperform. we like growth. growth earnings are 16%, expected next year, versus 9.3 for value. i think, if we are in an environment where the economy is slowing, as it did in the fourth quarter and then re- accelerating, you want the names to drive the re- acceleration in the growth. still industrials, technology still and, for a while, we thank. we think you want to stay away

from healthcare and consumer staples. those are not areas wherwe are overweight. >> that is it. that is the world in a nutshell. nancy, really appreciate it. thank you, as always. nancy tengler, thank you. coming up, bitcoin is rolling ahead of donald trump 's inauguration. what it means for the industry and for the analyst who expects prices to nearly double by year end. that is next. ♪ ♪

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i don't ever see anyone coming out to maintenance anything, so it's very scary for me because i have everything i love in this home. so, we've now implemented drone technology. how is that safe for me? it enhances the inspection, so it allows us to see things faster. your safety is the most important, and if you're feeling unsafe, that's not okay. it doesn't feel like that in our hearts. i mean, it's worrisome. [dog barks] ♪ welcome back to "the exchange" and a look at

bitcoin, for% today, nearly 105,000, pretty close to its all-time high. the president-elect has gone from skeptic of corporate -- cryptocurrencies to a believer and is planning an executive order to make crypto a national imperative or priority. shares are up in sympathy. my next guest says a rally will continue with bitcoin hitting $200,000 a share. join me now is jeff kendrick, global head of digital asset charter. you're not even a bitcoin strategist but in some ways, you are. welcome. >> thanks, kelly. it is a pleasure. >> what me through the history of how you have analyzed the price of something like bitcoin and what gets you today tool call of 200 k by year end? >> 2024 was all about the etf and quite frankly, the best launch in any history of the

etf market and before 2024 and also through this year, i think it is reasonable to compare the etf inflows to what happened with gold when you had the first gold etf in the u.s. which was 2004. in that case, it took about seven years for that market to mature. we sold pretty much half of the mattress some -- maturation with the bitcoin when gold went through that seven year period, 2004 to 2011, prices multiplied four times. that get you to around the 200,000 mark by 2025, considering where we started at the start of last year. interestingly, we have had about $36 billion of etf big coins in that sense. all of that, at the end of september, only one% was a very

long-term pension fund. that hasn't even started yet. that is where i am expecting it to come from in 2025. >> that is a good kind of grasp of what could drive prices considerably higher from the rally we have already seen. the flipside would be, if it breaks 90,000 to the downside, watch out. >> it is extremely volatile. bitcoin and digital assets right now, the total market of the whole sector is only $3.8 trillion, roughly the same as apple. it is very, very small. think about the check engine -- tech engine in the late 1990s and when trump takes office on monday, the administration could do some of what he is hoping for, up 105,000 today on the hope that after monday we get some regularity changes. we already know we are getting changes at the sec and perhaps

we even get some money coming out of the government to build up strategic reserves and other asset classes, like gold, for example. >> what would propel bitcoin higher in terms of the rumors. we have gotten where they expect a strategic bitcoin reserve. maybe if you start to see institutions add bitcoin to their balance sheet but that has been whispered about. it is that idea that if we don't get a bunch of new and exciting announcements, what happens then? >> of course. we have seen similar things in other asset classes, as well. by monday we will be getting close to the all-time high of 109,000. i suspect then-president trump will success something in his space. i would expect the asset class to be mentioned monday during the inauguration in some form. it will be seen as a positive. alt -- clearly there are a lot

of other things the new administration will be focused on, not just what i would like to see in the digital asset space. >> are you to be at the crypto ball? snoop dogg will be there. >> exactly, unfortunately, not tonight for myself but it sounds like a lot are going to that in washington. >> it is not as if it is part of the official inauguration. they are just throwing a party a few blocks away. do you think he will stop by? we did it. look at bitcoin, they were practically back to an all-time high. it just cracks me up. >> look, the industry has been waiting a long time to have an administration that looks to be supportive. the last few years have been very tricky. the sec has been much less constructed -- constructive then the asset class was hoping. now it will be neutral and they will

meaning more money getting involved. really, legitimization of the industry so no great surprise you see parties going on this evening in washington. >> geoffrey, thanks. geoffrey kendrick joining us. coming out, shares of war b parker are selling off today after evercore downgraded it. the state ofroh gwt prospects are priced in with few catalysts to try to outperform it over the next few must. downs 7% today, slightly off the lows, although it is up about 63 percents since september. we will be right back. ♪ ♪

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♪ tech one of the only two sectors in orissa far this year. some of the tran tenor still trading at high evaluations, others are still n aott all expensive. up next, my guest is here to name the names. stay with us. ♪ ♪ (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course!

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investment objectives, risks for all thoseenses making it big out there... ...shouldn't your mobile service be able to keep up with you? get wifi speeds up to a gig at home and on the go. introducing powerboost, only from xfinity mobile. now that's big. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange" and a disappointing start to 2025 for apple. shares are down nearly 8% and their first we decline since

april. $9.00 lower from here, around 220 a share. let's bring in bernstein's senior analyst, apple is one of his top picks for the year but he may not stick it out. tony, we are so glad to have you. congratulations on your retirement, if that is what it is. i don't mean to aid you but when his unit last day? >> good afternoon, kelly. so, i will be staying on at bernstein for the next few months but i have my last investor call this morning. as far as coverage of companies, i am wrapping that up pretty soon and transitioning things to a successor. thanks for having me on. >> who else is going to call ibm, you know, ride it all the way to the upside, you went, i

think even just in the past year or so some of the inflection point, like apple you picked up on, toni. i am glad to have you weigh in on it today. are you even get a pay attention to stocks when you're done? >> yes, i have been doing this 26 years. i think it will be very hard to go cold turkey, in terms of not following these things, to some degree. you know, i have been following longer than my children were born. i think you always follow your children and in the professional world, these are my children. i will always have some interest in them. >> i love it. i love you. let me get to brass tacks for the investors to get the last drips and drops from you. apple is still the topic for this year. there are a few other names in mag 7 that are not overvalued. where do you think things who have the figure upside for that now? >> sure. kelly, yes. apple has had a tremendous run. in the near term, its valuation is close to its peak, multiple. we don't think the current life on 16 cycle is all that strong and i think it is more likely that near-term numbers might go down rather than go up.

also seasonally, the stock market generally doesn't do very well in the september to march, april time frame. we have been encouraging investors to wait for a better entry point, ideally between 200 or 220. the start is to 60. so we would just encourage investors to be patient. with that said, we think, if you are able to get at a lower price or as we get into the march, april time frame, that people start to look at to the iphone 15 cycle. we think that will be very strong. you know, i phoned have grown a couple digits and ultimately, we think it is not implausible, you know, that apple could do $9.00 a share next year in earnings for fiscal 2026. 32 times multiple, which is apple's high end of its range, that can be a $290 stock. it is a great core holding. you want to be optimistic and opportunistic when you drop in.

i would be patient and wait to get under 220 or wait until later in the year to pick max him up. >> do you think there is a secular shift to these valuations from when you first started covering them? >> absolute. if you look at the technog sector overall, kelly, really, what has evolved is you have more business models across the board, even within my companies. ibm was much more of a core company 20 years ago. today 60% of ibm's earnings are coming from software. you see that across the entire tech sector where you have not only had more entities, but companies are moving their businesses to be more software oriented. so software is a high margin business. it tends to have more recurring revenue. obviously, we have had the movement to service it accordingly, much more predictability. and then you have the cash flow where you are often not paid

before you recognize the revenues. for all of those reasons, better stability, and more visibility, we believe that tech should have a higher multiple. historically, you pay 20, 25% premium for tech as a whole. we are closer to 40% premium today. historically tech has grown revenues and earnings about 5% higher per year than the broader market. so if you want faster growth, you have to pay for it. that premium is higher today for the reasons i just mentioned. >> i was going to tease you about tesla, but we are out of time. you remain steadfast and we are all excited to see how the narrative turns out. toni, thanks for joining us and congratulations again. it has been great to see you it has been great to see you and follow your it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount. a healthy weight can help dogs live >> congratulations on yours,

all the best wishes. >> toni sacconaghi, we appreciate it. that is it for "the exchange" today. i will join brian for "power lunch", don't go anywhere, it is just on the other side of this quick break.

investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities

like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) ruri never thought she would live out her dream. then one day, she did. you were made to chase your passions. we were made to put them in a package. ♪ welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, i'm brian sullivan. it's higher today, but is apple still worth your money? we're going to look at the good and not so good on one of the world's most owned stocks. plus the supreme court saying a tiktok ban can go forward, but will