brian gardner, chief washington policy analyst at steifel. thank you. >> happy friday. and be sure to watch cnbc's special coverage of the inauguration. that begins at 8:00 a.m. eastern on monday. now, that said, we mentioned it before, but it was a strong weak for trading post election results. for now, that's going to do it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. this is "fast money," here's what's on tap. shedding pounds, not in a good way. shares of novo nordisk, the headlines that are sending the weight loss eavy weight lower. and president-elect trump promises to make crypto a priority. could intel be a takeover target this year. how much climate change has affected homeowners insurance, and the last two traders reveal

their 2025 acronyms. why steve is putting on his gloves and courtney is going global. i'm melissa b. courtney garcia and head of u.s. equity strategy, laurie, we start off with the latest drive. novo nordisk getting slammed after 15 drugs subject to price negotiations for 2027, including novo's glp-1 drugs, ozempic and wegovy, trading at lows last seen in the summer of 2023. eli lilly shares falling in sympathy and broader concerns over pricing pressures in the glp- glp-1 category. the company trimmed 2025 guidance earlier in the week. and a wrinkle for novo, sdeeld a higher dose of wegovy, patients losing 20.7% of their body weight after 72 weeks.

that's still slightly less than what patients see on existing doses of zepbound, what does this mean for the direction of the obesity trade which has come back down to earth for a bit? >> down obviously, and for novo, looking at where they have been in the last, i don't know, five months or so, it's down almost half, which is, if it weren't so big, it would be a takeover target for somebody, but it is, and still like, i don't know, $350 billion or so. i mean, this is bad. i am long lily. clearly, you can't help but think, if that's happening to novo, you have to think lily is going to suffer the pressure as well. i'm still long, right place to be in the last two months. i really believe in the trade and the drug, the promise of this drug, and even if there is -- i'm hopeful it will get covered more broadly than we think. >> nikki haley they'll make it ,

effectively. >> if you're on the list, then we'll cover it. but i do think that there's a chance that we see much broader coverage. >> aren't we going to see a whole new negotiating team once trump's team comes in? >> you think they're going to be easier on novo nordisk, we don't want to cut you that much. we have a lot of people on this drug. does that sound like something they're going to do? when i put it that way, no, right. >> i sense that you're being sarcastic, so i think that we're going to go with whatever the lobbyists and big pharma kind of -- that's unfortunately the way our government works. so, you know, and i think everyone likes to leave their own finger print. if he thinks that this is a better deal to do better, historically, when they do these negotiations, the drug price comes in 22%. what does that do? so if you do some analysis, and read the tea leaves, it's

probably a 10% discount on novo. when you look at it down 26% for the year, these are names that we've talked about so much. they have been so prevalent, and they have been these high fliers. it's down 26% for the year. another 10% is probably not going to squeeze people out of it. that's probably your worst case scenario for me. >> so down another 10%. >> is worst case scenario. >> i think the worst case in everything that we know right now, and i think you have the up shot of trump's team being less onerous on these negotiations. >> what do you think? >> that is the big unknown, what is the new administration going to do with these price negotiations but i think realistically, many analysts knew that they were going to be in this list of companies that were up for price drops, which is why a lot of this more so is because of the trial that just came out, probably more son than the price increasesment . the question is will there be

increased volume in the demand for the drugs. the demand is there. they're not able to supply it enough to get it out to people, and i would still say that outweighs these price pressures, i would buy on the dips. i don't know how much further it would take to go. i would look at this long-term opportunity. >> zooming out, i was on the road pretty much the entire month of december, and i got an earful. i got an earful from investors who were worried about the market, itching to go defensive and they were talking about just about any other sector besides health care, and the reason why was the political uncertainty. even looking at an area like pharma where we had been seen good earnings revisions, good valuation appeal, maybe there was an idea there was a little bit less risk in that sector than other areas. i feel like this is a sector that cannot catch a break, and going into a political environment where we don't know what we're going to get, i think it's tough to step in. >> i think it's interesting that you think the trump administration is going to be a little bit easier on these guys. i mean, trump is the deal maker, right?

i mean, he's the deal maker in chief. it's a very populist thing to bring price produces of drugs down, particularly very popular drugs. >> he also likes being contrarian. so if he sees where people are lining up, he more often than not will choose how to convince himself of the opposite opposing side. and the only time we didn't see that with him was with u.s. steel. he stayed right in line with the biden administration because of unions and teamsters and whatever else, i would assume. i think you're going to see sort of a pivot here. and i get everything that you're saying makes total sense and on paper it should be -- he should be worse than the average of 22%, you know, fighting with the drug companies. but i think he's going to play it from a different angle. he'll see it as a winner. >> do you think it's a value now? i mean, value, well, i mean, i guess, you know, it's lower. that's for sure. but i do think that, yes, i do

think -- i mean, for this kind of an extraordinary product. how many of these have we seen. i'm trying to think back, statens were gigantic, gigantic for a really long time. this is bigger than that. so, yes. >> let's get more on all of this with dr. kavita patel, nbc news medical contributor, dr. patel, great to have you with us. you know, what's interesting about novo, it's got a lot of things going on here. it has the medicare, you know, the drug negotiation aspect, which could put pressure on pricing, but it also has the step trial results which seem disappointing because they weren't as -- it wasn't as effective as its competitor zepbound. and what do you think in this world of novo nordisk is its biggest burden at this point? >> yeah, i think the biggest burden is what, by the way, the interesting thing about that drug list is it not just had

ozempic, wegovy, but basically drugs came out at different years, lump them in for a class effect, which i know novo has suits pending, all sorts of things. i think that's the biggest risk right there. when you look at the medicare population and the reach this could be as well as the impact on the commercial market. for novo, this is a big deal watching how the big price negotiations shake out, and listening to how you all spoke before, you know, we're hearing trump want to resurrect things like most favored nation. that puts us into an even deeper conversation about deeper price discounts, not necessarily going easier on the industry. so i think that's the largest risk combined with, i feel like i'm a broken record when i say i'm waiting for the tide commercial launch. if you think zepbound are better than ozempic and wegovy, you look at three mechanisms of action and then you've got, you know, now we're talking about some incredible results that could put novo in -- i still think there's a market.

it just changes the dynamics of that market. >> dr. patel, it's karen. thanks for being on. if you're lily, how do you think about pricing now today versus yesterday? >> yeah, it's a great question. so all we have is to kind of look at what happened for drugs that were in the list that still has not taken effect, but that original list of 10 for the ira drug price negotiations. to remind people, it goes into effect in january of 26, but there we saw kind of a spread, you know, 38 to 79% reductions, and i think that's where, if you're lily, you're looking closely and just kind of trying to think through, well, if trump comes in with kind of a most favored nation approach, then you're really hoping as the lily coo has said, that might result in other countries raising their prices so that overall the u.s. prices are not much lower but you're probably trying to do that calculus right now depending on what you're hearing from trump, and keep in mind, i think there's still so many uncertainties in how this

administration -- the incoming administration would take action. i was reminded again by staff who are career staff that they're the ones who are in the negotiation room. there's a lot of political overlay, and certainly the trump administration can do things. but they're still going to have a lot more control at the career staff level. so lily should just look to kind of have the negotiations last year and trying to handicap, well, where and how will we fare when we inevitably come into the market and position ourselves. they're doing that with these nteresting relationships on the telehealth side, looking at their viles. i think they're trying to think about multiple prongs to get to so many people, and overcome the employer resistance to cover the drugs, you know, at the large group market. >> you mentioned that most favored nation status could mean even deeper cuts. by law, the price cuts should be 25 to 60% off of the regular price, so you're talking about

cuts that could potentially be deeper than that margin. >> so this is where the question is kind of interpretation of the statute. if you read the statute closely, there's wiggle room in how you can interpret kind of the mechanism of the negotiation and the prices to which its indexed. yes, you're right, tried to set up a corridor of safety just like it did with how long the drug has to be in the market and the other restrictions. and if you deeper, and the trump administration has, this isn't the first time they have talked about favored nations, there's some opportunity there, and i think that's going to be the active point of discussion once they come in, and i certainly do not expect for them to just kind of -- they can't undo that list. that list is going to stay as it is. it's very difficult to do it without congressional action, and this is not the kind of thing you want to take congressional action on. i see them digging in deeper, and trying to think about what the prescription drug prices

could look like. elon musk thought this could open an incredible market if people have access to it. that seems to be in line with where people feel, and the public feels that way too. >> for nor voe nor vo nordisk, s going on and the semaglutide patent coming up for expiration in a few year's time. with that backdrop, eli lilly is working on trutide, a danger changer in efficacy, how much better do you think eli lilly is positioned now seeing what the novo portfolio is, the pipeline, versus before? >> yeah, i think, lilly, and we have spoken not just about in this kind of space, but in some of their just, like, chronic disease in general, i think lilly is positioned nicely. having said that, there's so many aspects, so many drugs in

pipeline that i think could offer even not just a good profile, but easier dosing, so we've always talked about orals. they're just not as good rigtd right now as the injectable. in time, there's going to be sophistication in the delivery method. eli lilly has a land grab for the space, and the space of disease effects of obesity. we have talked about watching closely lilly trials in other indications. that puts them, again in this great position of being part of eliminating chronic disease. think about going from chronic to curative, and when you look at the lilly pipeline, that's what it speaks to. >> dr. patel, great to see you. have a deteriorate great weeken a few days before president-elect trump is sworn into office. he has promised to make crypto a priority, bitcoin trading over

100 k. mackenzie gonzalez joins us now. they're celebrating in washington. they're going to have a crypto ball, a party for donald trump. bitcoin has run so much. what are we expecting in the first 100 days from the trump administration in terms of the bitcoin. >> the first crypto ball is tonight. it's closed to the press. there are multiple reports that we're going to see an executive order that's crypto specific on day one in office. i have been talking to a lot of industry specialists who have been putting together a plan over the last several months, channelling that to the trump transition team. some of the big pillars involve a crypto advisory council, c suite executives, members of the crypto firms who went to round tables with president trump in the runup to the election in nashville, and mar-a-lago, this would be the pool of candidates he would form the advisory counsel, separate to the ai and crypto task force convened under

david saks. there's also talk, more than 100 enforcement actions brought against crypto firms over the last four years, and one of the potential proposals here that could be a part of an eo would be to freeze these enforcement actions if they don't involve allegations of fraud, so right now you've got coin base, robin hood received a wells notice from the s.e.c. if you see them frozen, that could be a game changer. the big one is the fact that we night see a national bitcoin stockpile, something trump introduced the idea of in july in nashville. over the last few months, we have seen executives from the crypto industry, meet with trump behind closed doors to advocate for other cryptocurrencies to be a part of this. you have the ceo of ripple, which is closely aligned with the xrf token, dvocating for just that. >> so in terms of a crypto

stockpile, presumably it would be under the purview of the treasury department, has bessent said anything about it? >> at this point, all that's been mentioned is that the $20 billion worth of bitcoin that already sits on the government's balance sheet under the purview of the marshals would potentially be migrated to this stockpile and under the purview of the treasury. we haven't heard whether or not that's going to happen. you've got names like senator lummis of wyoming, actively advocating for a more aggressive buying plan. 1 million bitcoin over the next five years, meeting with members of the trump transition team, and cabinet appointees reportedly to discuss that plan and making that a reality. at this point, we're still waiting to see if this strategic bitcoin reserve would be part of an executive order if it's brought next week. >> thank you. have fun with the ball. should be interesting. an advisory council made up of industry executives. sounds like a great idea. >> i was just looking, at the

end of 2024, the u.s. had $489 billion worth of gold, and $20 billion of bitcoin, did she say. >> 20. >> 20? >> yeah. >> there's a lot of room between here and there. that will be fascinating. if that's the case, i think there's still more up side here. clearly bitcoin is excited about this, and there's something built in here already. if that is the case, i think there's more to go. >> the saying, you can never be long enough, bitcoin, when it's going up. and that's what people are going to chase. they're going to try to capture 200,000 bitcoin per year or up to as she said, a million bitcoin per year. either way, you're only going to have a maximum of 21 million bitcoin. it's the supply/demand that keeps the bid in this. i have out sized bid in bitcoin. >> how much do you get, bitcoin

versus equities? >> it doesn't come up as much as you would think. we have one chart in our weekly where we actually track bitcoin against the s&p, and most of the time that relationship has been pretty solid. it breaks down every now and then. we're right back into a pattern where they are marching right together, and the other thing we see is that if you look at trump's net approval, it's also marching in line with the s&p. i haven't done the trump versus bitcoin chart yet. i think i know what i'll find out there, but these things are all starting to be interconnected and at the end of the day, i tend to use it as a risk barometer. we'll continue to use it that way. >> great news for the equity markets then. >> i would agree with that. i think this is a risk-on bet, and i think this is part of the trump trade which has come back in focus again as we're getting closer to inauguration day. as we got to december, inflation and the fed took control of the market, and we're looking at what's going to benefit under a trump presidency who has by far been the most favorable to

cryptocurrencies. i can tell you it's the most common question we're getting from clients, do we own this, should we own this, how much should i own of this. it's from a retail level. more and more people are getting interested in this. the demand probably is there. coming up, a big week for the big banks, we'll dive into strong earnings and a slew of record highs means for the group next. and chinese stocks soaring on the back of gdp data is now the time to jump into this trade? we'll debate right after this. this is "fast money" with melissa lee,ig he cc. rhteronnb . so an ai agent didn't know to move my reservations inside... ...or know what i like to eat, which is not that. what's up, my brother? oh, hey, bud! we really needed this rain. right? [car splashing rain water] agentforce helps restaurants prevent dining disasters. paddle on over! it's what ai was meant to be. we got you, brother.

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welcome back to fast money, jpmorgan, goldman sachs, some of the marquee banks beating earnings estimates. bny, discover, financial and american express hitting new highs today. everything about this environment is great for financials, karen. >> it really is. i mean, on every front. you have net interest income, which is great. you had other income, which is great. you had banking. you had asset and wealth management, growth in loans. i mean, and you're in that capital potentially more capital. they might be able to release some capital. and a great environment overall

in the economy. so there's a lot to like there. >> so we've liked the sector. i do think the investment banks are getting a little pricey. we've still got solid earnings revision trends, and probably a bit more room to run. look, i think a lot of the sort of less challenging stuff for markets, good stuff, so to speak from the trump administration, easier regulation, m&a, increased business optimism, all of that stuff feels like it hasn't happened in a big way yet. it's still kindling, and things like tariffs aren't relevant here. i like the egional banks better than the investment banks but there's still more to be done here. >> i think the banks look attractive, and coming into a new administration, there's one of the direct beneficiaries of less regulation, a yield curve is normalizing, what also has been positive to see is their commentary on the consumer has been very positive. we're not seeing cracks in the consumer, consumers are still spending. itst good for the banks but also

good for the economy and the markets as a whole. i have been happy to see the news coming out. >> this was the original trump trailed. this was the deregulation trade. this should be a tail wind to the banks for everything karen mentioned, everything the other panelists mentioned, everything laurie and courtney said, i think there's a tail wind, but are they sexy enough going forward. >> sexy enough meaning are they overpriced right no? what do you mean? when you start talking about price to book, these numbers are starting to get a little bloated for financials, so they could be overdone. when you're looking for sexy, you think growth, you think technology, you think more efficiencies, i don't know if they have that just yet. >> karen's heartbroken. >> you know what i think when i think of jpmorgan, he's thinking about sexy, i think it is. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come, here's what's

coming up next. a major merger in the chip space, we're pulling back the curtain on the latest buzz lighting up intel shares, and diving into just how big this semi shakeup could be. but first, china stocks rallying today on strong economic numbers out of the country. but, with the potential for tariffs and questions over the future of tiktok, is this market investable again? we've got answers next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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. welcome back to "fast money," the supreme court upholding a ruling that would force tiktok to shut down in the u.s. on sunday. the viral social media app might still live on. president biden saying he will not enforce a ban before he leaves office. and president-elect trump saying he will make a decision on the social media platform soon. meanwhile, chinese internet stocks got a bump on the back of strong gdp out of the country. china's economy growing by 5% in the last quarter. better than estimates. karen, you got in on the china trade last fall, right?

>> i did a bad job timing that. it was one of the letters in my acronym. i'm not sure which letter, but alibaba is one of them, and i think there's a lot of bad news already priced in. i don't know whether to believe this number or not, and i kind of dismiss it, but i think to the extent that there is any improvement in the relationship, not only with the u.s. and china but any improvement at all in their economy, i think there's a lot of p side here. >> i agree with that. it's sort of in the same vein we're talking about the weight loss drugs f you're going to have a representative, a high level representative from china at the inauguration, things can't seem as hot as we think they are. >> you mean the tiktok ceo. >> the tiktok ceo and the vice president of china is going to be at the inauguration. i think that between china and the u.s., and we know that donald trump as president trump has spoken to xi jinping about tiktok and about fentanyl, and about a host of other things i'm sure. i think things could be simmering down, and if they're

simmering down at all, then this whole space should in theory run. >> i would agree with this. this is something we have actively been looking at. i think you're getting a lot of over negativity that's been priced into china. if you have any sort of improvement with china/u.s. relations or start to see the stimulus come to fruition, there's a lot of questions with the gdp numbers and how accurate they are. i think realistically, they are willing to put the stimulus in to continue their economy growing. it's absolutely a space you don't want to discount the second largest economy in the world. you want to look at your risk tolerance, and how much we have there. it can be volatile. >> when we track flow data, we're not seeing a return to china yet. what you are noticing is you're seeing a break in the u.s. dominance. we started to see u.s. equity funds flows falter at the end of the year, and we have seen interest pick up in global funds, european funds, they're not seeing inflows on the european side. we're starting to see a noticeable change in trend that things are getting so much less

negative. u.s. conception, it's not surprising we're seeing the dynamics shift a little bit. intel up big as rules that the chip maker is on the auction block. what a deal could look like, and what it would mean for this embattled name right after this. missed a most of "fast," catch us anytime on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing out their best week since november with more gains, the dow up nearly 335 points, the s&p climbing 1%, and the nasdaq up 1 1/2%. all three major indices up at least 2% this week. meanwhile, apple rebounding slightly today but closing out the third straight weekly loss. that's the tech giant's losing streak since april. and netflix jumping 2% today. ever core reiterating its performance since tuesday, saying it expects a modest beat for the quarter. what do you think, steve? >> which one? >> netflix. >> all of them? would you rather? no, i'll just do netflix. netflix is something where the

password sharing seemed like the longest positive catalyst that we have ever seen for a stock, and trying, plenty of people have gone broke on trying to bet on the end of it t. . they're still the monopoly in that space. used to be disney was the king of content, now netflix has the most content. when i watch streaming anything, i start with netflix, and happen to wind up by accident for something else. so still a buy. >> where do you end up mostly. >> in my house still. >> no, i assumed. >> i wind up on paramount or you wind up on hulu, but for the most part, it's only if you will tell me there's something to be there for it, then i go there for it. >> meantime, shares of intel surging nearly 10% today after reports of renewed speculation the company is a takeover target. it was the stock's best day since august, shares are still down more than 50% in the last 12 months. for more on potential m&a for the name, let's bring in senior

semianalyst at bernstein research. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> in the fall, it was rumored that qualcomm would be interested in intel, at least parts of intel. today there's also a bloomberg report saying the u.s. is looking into possibly having global foundries purchase intel. what do you think of any of this? >> yeah, there's ban lot of m&a noise about it. and, look, everybody wants them to do something. everybody knows they need to do something. nobody is exactly sure what it is they ought to be doing. so you're seeing a lot of this. when the qualcomm news came out, they have come out and said they're not looking at it, not interested. my biggest issue with that deal, and with any of it, really, it is the fabs, what do you do with the fabs, they're kind of an anchor right now. they're losing billions of dollars. they still require a lot of capx, and it's kind of hard to make the numbers work. that's the general problem if somebody's going to take all of

it. the global founders, i don't know, if you read the article, it suggested it never got beyond a phonics experiment. it makes sense. they tried to buy global foundries, who owns 80% of it. it's the abu dhabi investment firm, kind of rejected for the ipo. global foundries doesn't really have the cash or market cap to buy it. as 80% owned effectively by abu dhabi. they don't do leading edge anyways. it doesn'tsoever the problems intel is having. i'm not surprised the thinking didn't go beyond the thought experience. looking at an m&a deal to save the stock, stranger things have happened. it's hard to make the numbers work, at least in spreadsheets. >> and there's a minor detail that it doesn't have a ceo yet. >> minor details, by the way, whoever they get to fill that slot, i mean, this is sorts of the first decision they have to make.

what do they do? everything else, like whether it's fix the company, sell the company, whatever it is, everything stems from that decision first. i don't know, i don't know what they're going to do with them yet. >> what decision could they make on the fabs that would send the stock higher? >> i don't know. they don't have a lot of great options. right? i mean, you could do what you're doing, if that's the case, i guess you could give up on the foundry and do manufacturing for yourself, which is what they used to do, and by the way, maybe that would make the stock go up. the problem with that is you need volume to ramp your yields. that was part of the advantage of the foundry. i don't know if they have enough on their own. you can try to split it. they can't stand on their own. you need something to capitalize. people have suggested jvs or get the government to throw more money in.

you dilute s, it's tough. i don't know how politically viable that is. you try to focus on the product company. i guess you could also sell the product company and take the cash and throw it in the physical abuse if you thought -- fabs if you thought the foundry was the future. there's no good solid options, there's a lot of thinking that whoever the new ceo is they're going to have to go through to decide what the right path forward is. there's nothing obvious they can do at this point. >> what's your rating on intel? >> we're market perform on the stocks. to be honest, i'm kind of afraid to short it because you get news like this today, but at the same time, it doesn't really feel like a long either. i'm sort of preaching avoidance, it's a copout, but it feels safer. >> we need a new category. stacy, thank you, always great to speak with you. avoid, that's legitimate. are you avoiding intel? >> i mean, i think a lot of

people have been, right? i think the problem with them is the foundry is like likely their biggest long-term opportunity, but their biggest short-term issue, right? there's so much capital expenditures that's going to continue to go in there. we don't know what the turn around story is going to be. maybe buy on m&a activity. there's so many loops to jump through, i think it's too soon to do that either. i would stay out of it. i like that option. >> it's outperformed nvidia year to date. granted we're not burning a lot of year to date so far. this is one where eventually to stacy's point, what makes it go down from here? and if you're the old ceo and the stock is doing better with no ceo, you have to sort of think maybe i shouldn't have been there in the first place. >> would you rather choose intel? >> i'm going to rely on you to

tell me. >> the choice really is do you go with the dog, lots of problems, potential of up side. >> i think you go with the dog. >> you choose the dog over nvidia? >> well, i don't know about -- well, yeah, it's proven. there's a lot more head winds, a lot bigger target on nvidia's back right now with china/u.s. and granted if that gets better, enjoy back to the last segment, and nvidia could maybe regain some of its footing. the truth is there's a lot in that stock price already factored in. >> and there's nothing in intel. >> nothing in intel. coming up our last two trader acronyms of 2025, while courtney is traveling the world looking for gains, and how steve wants to knock out the competition. we've got their picks next. more "fast money" in two. that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh!

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at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. getting there starts here. welcome back to "fast money," all week long our traders are revealing their 2025 acronyms, and we are down to our final here. steve's acronym wage turned into sage after smurf and west rock closed. it our runner up. every component up about 40%. only amgen down slightly giving the group a 28% gain overall. steve, what's your 2025? >> boxer, and we're going to

start with b for bitcoin, nd for obvious reasons, right, we have the strategic bitcoin reserve, the most pro-president because bitcoin wasn't around for most of the presidents, so there's, you know, he ties himself, president trump ties himself with the market and with bitcoin. he's not going to let either one fail. and then we move to the o, which is okta. recently profitable. this is an identity management company. it's already up 11% year to date. letter x, steel, this is one that also president trump is not going to let fail. whether he uses tariffs to save it, whether he uses tax policy, we have already seen cleveland cliffs rumored to be back in a deal in a partnership with new core to try to take them out. are they going to get taken out for the same price that nippon put on the deal? no, but there's still light at the end of the tunnel. i'm long, i'm up 17% on the

trade. i'm going to stay long. ethereum, rising tide lifts all boats. crypto, if crypto rises, ethereum rises, and ethereum platform is what a lot of other crypto names are built on. and reddit, is the forum of forums, another one that's recently profitable, and i think this one had a huge year or huge three months, and i think it has the ability to have another huge year in front of it. >> all right. our final trader acronym, courtney, your 2024 pick, v-scheme. didn't follow the rules. >> i thought it did. >> clearly you did. >> but still ended up 8% last year, consistent of sectors, values, small caps, which are your top performers, health care, emerging markets and energy. this year, courtney followed the rule, so what is your acronym. >> i followed the rules that i felt were directed at me, so i made sure to follow them. this year my acronym is global, and we are looking for a global

recovery here in 2025, so i'll start with g, which is goldman sachs, we've talked actually a lot about the banks tonight, which we really continue to like, and i think goldman sachs specifically is really well positioned to see more m&a, more investment banking activity. the l, i guess the first l in mine is lockheed martin which is a beneficiary of increased defense spending in the u.s. our o of global is occidental. talked a lot about energy and really just this supply demand constraint that's not going away anytime in the near future, one of the largest oil and gas producers. my b is baba, i think we share a letter this year. and this is just really looking abroad, at emerging markets. if you see any of this improvement in u.s. and china, this is a beneficiary you want to make sure you have as a piece of that. my a here is abercrombie, the only one that has not done so hot since the beginning of the year, had quite a selloff. this is a play in a tough retail space they have resonated with the younger consumer, and i

think the younger consumer is going to continue to be strong, and this is a brand that you'll likely get to see that resonate with, and lastly here, we have louie vuitton, which i think you're going to see the luxury buying rebound. you have seen that with cartier's parent company. that's going to be a trend this year. global is my acronym now that thyme following the rules. >> yai, courtney. >> nicely done. i think in your acronym is alibaba a? >> yeah, so. i'm just, you know, pointing that out. >> but it's interesting, guy, you and karen. >> yes, did tim have that or no? >> no. not this year, i think. >> it's early, though. >> tim likes the other company in aprilish, right? sfl that's true. coming up as recovery efforts continue in the wake of the wildfires blazing across southern california, our next guest says insurance losses could hit $40 billion. what is next for the industry and homeowners right after this. more "fast meyinwoon" t.

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homeowners insurance costs draws attention. the treasury department releasing a report just yesterday that found costs rose by almost 9.%. that's more than inflation between 2018 and 2022. the reason the report says climate related natural disaster. elise greenspan follows the insurance injury for wells fargo. welcome to the show. welcome to "fast money." you're at 30 for insured losses and it could go up to 40. >> yeah, we have set expectations around 30 billion of insured losses with the expectation that things could rise to 40 billion, and to your earlier point, this is a loss that's really going to fall on the personal property side. so really hit, you know, homeowners insurers, we expect around 85% of that, you know, 30 to perhaps $40 billion loss will fall on the homeowners side with a much smaller percentage on commercial property. >> we had a stat in our intro

about insurance costs rising. itst it's actually they rose 9% more than the pace of inflation. that's extremely steep, and sounds like they're only going to go higher. is there a point at which you're afraid the industry is going to fall under scrutiny? that is one of the big drivers of inflation, in terms of these inflation reports, insurance costs, that's not going down. any pressure, external pressure on the insurance companies? there's really no way around it in some aspects of it? >> exactly. this is a heavily regulated industry, at the state level, companies are filing, you know, in the standard market for rates that they would like to charge. and to the point, the reason that homeowner's rates have gone up so much. there's been a host of different losses, when we look back over this time period. we're talking about fires. there's been a series of hurricanes. there's been some states impacted by winter freeze. other fires have impacted california. so it's just been a period of elevated catastrophe losses for

the industry that has really led to this increase in prices. >> so they could either, to melissa's point, be held under more scrutiny or when you look back on these charts, and i don't want to belittle any of the tragedy that's happened. this has been immense, horrific, but when you look at the charts on these names, we seem to get past it. and is it just a matter of the fact that they out paced inflation, the normal set inflation levels or people just have a short-term memory, and they do what they have to do as an insurance company to survive. will they get past it at this point? >> well, look, i mean, you know, our view, right, is even at this 30, $40 billion loss, right, for the insurance industry, this is an earnings event, not a capital event. the industry has the capital to absorb the loss, and then, you know, when we're talking about prices going up on the fp side there will be price increases. losses is what brings pricing power in the industry. there will be greater price, you know, that these companies can kind of, you know, move past the

event and potentially, you know, write more business in the state of california at higher prices. >> so it used to be when there was a disaster, whatever the hit was, it was just an income hit, and then they were able to price higher but now you have a different dynamic of insurers wanting to leave the industry, we saw that already. how do you think the industry will rebuild or not as people rebuild their homes? >> well, this, you know, when we talk about nonrenewals and looefl leaving the industry, that's, you know, been a situation that's been, you know, really pronounced in california than other states in the industry, and the way that, you know, homeowners insurers have been able to, you know, price in california has been different in other states, right, for example primary insurers up until very recently could not pass through higher reinsurance costs. so if insurance carriers didn't think that they were, you know, enabled to earn, you know,

return and charge appropriately for the risk, they were going to pull back from the state. with that being said, right, we're talking about standard market insurers, and there is a host of, you know, california business that goes to the excess and surplus lines market where companies have been able to, you know, charge a much higher price. >> elise, thank you so much for coming by and explaining all of this to us. elise green span of wells fargo, and certainly we're going to ntue talking about this at this point. time for the final trades.

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(grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1)ld bond. i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. as there are pocket . final trade time. laurie. >> i'm still buying financials, room enough on valuations, lots of political tail winds, not too many head winds. >> karen. >> growth, animal spirits, to me

that's inflation, short tlt. >> courtney. >> i was going to use your same one, i picked jpmorgan's, i like the banks going into inauguration day. >> steve. >> love bitcoin and i love something that outperforms bitcoin, 3 1/2 to 1, that's micro strategy. >> all right. thank you for watching "fast money," have a my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. the bulls are roaming freely. they cannot seem to be stopped. that's my read