i like the discount. >> i couldn't resist. three or four or five years. financial financial financial. >> no longer square. now xyz, still believe this is one of the better stocks with strong positive momentum. >> near 450 on the dow. green across the board and it is green across the board any i'll see you on "the closing bell" at 3:00. look at that. we're picking up some steam as we head into the afternoon. thanks. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. day one brings six presidential actions ranging from immigration to energy and ai, but it was the shift in tone on tariffs that the market was welcoming today and we'll have the latest and what can happen next. >> bradley tusk says trump repealing biden's orders on ai doesn't matter. the venture capitalist and political consultant will be here to tell us why and why

trump halting the tiktok ban for now could give china more time to train. and the shock waves that trump's national energy emergency is sending through the alps. wti down 2% and let's get to dom chu with a look at the rest of the markets. ty! and green for all three of the major indices and the dow industrials up 3.5% and and the s&p 500 is up about 50 points. this does represent session highs right now up nearly one full percent. at the highs, that's where we are right now up ten points at the lows, so it's been generally positive. 6,045, the trade there. the tech-heavy side is the

laggard so far today. the composite index is at 19,758. it's up 128 points or two-third of 1%. one of the big reasons why? one of the big companies out there, it used to be the biggest, but it is not anymore. it is apple, shares down 4% due in large part to new data coming out with regard to iphone sales slumping in china. also some analyst aks and actio the negative side of things and to $20 and change. nvidia is once again the biggest company and the publicly traded one in the s&p 500. apple shares taking a backseat to nvidia today. >> cryptocurrency, on inauguration day bitcoin prices did top 109,000 by some exchange measures which is a record high and we pulled off ever so slightly to the 106 and change level and that's up about 200 points and dollars or about 2.25% advance there, but just about a slight range setting higher for the ceiling there.

and one of the things to pay close attention to is one of the smaller coins, solana. it's about 250 bucks or there abouts and it did hit a record high of 290+. the reason why it's important and a lot of attention on solana because it is the home network of the trump meme coin that came out and reached a fever pitch. we know that coin has fallen in value precipitously since that high and keep an eye on solana. it's one of the most talked about networks and it is the home of the trump meme coin. i did not make that connection, dom. thank you very much. dom chu. president trump starting his second term with dozens of executive orders to start his agenda. tariffs were not one of the 46 actions and he teased putting 25% tariffs on mexico and canada as early as feb 1.

he withdrew from the paris climate agreement and revoked a number of biden administration clean energy initiatives. apple and amp zon azon, meta an tiktok raising questions about which direction his administration will go. speaking of tiktok, the president signed an executive order delaying the enforcement of the app's ban for 75 day, but leaving apple and google with some uncertainty in the meantime. he rescinded a biden administration executive order addressing risks amid the development of ai models and we'll talk about that in a little bit, but we start with tariffs. surprisingly absent on day one? what is the president signaling? joining us is dan from a bear company. what do you think is brewing?

>> kelly, it is so great to be with you. he won on immigration and his first day reflected that that he didn't want to step on those major issues and that's why he emphasized immigration and energy yesterday. he believes getting energy costs down and it will be inflation down and number one was sealing off the border. the initiatives he put forward are extremely bold on immigration by allowing the military to control areas that are not the ports of entry and that's something he didn't have in the first term and the security of the border is ms. most important issue. >> that does not mean that tariffs will not be part of the story as we get deeper into the year, and when you read the executive order that he put out yesterday on trade it is extremely well thought out, and what they're saying is, look, we haven't made any decisions. we're going to sit down. we'll think about these broad areas, trying to not meet its trade obligations from the 2020

deal. how we approach the usmca in 2026 and are there countries, and let's have the career lawyers look at it from litigation and report back to us in april and we'll come up with more comprehensive solutions. as you mentioned, that was the message all day right up until about 7:00 and then it's, hey, we'll have tariffs of 25% with mexico and canada, but i would urge caution on that. it's very clear to me that trump needs a partner in mexico as he seals off the mexico policy, and the arctic and our spheres of influence which involves canada. so i think he's keeping the pressure on those countries as he starts to enact his agenda and they don't think we'll see tariffs on mexico and canada on february 1st at 25%. >> one more on this on china specifically. we're about to hear more on how they might be bracing there.

what do you think? so goldman and others are reading into this that the tariffs can be more about strategic industries as opposed to universal tariffs. do you think something like that is likely to emerge on the china front? what do you think is going to happen specifically there? >> kelly, you know our thesis throughout the election and post-election is you have to separate china from the rest of the world and what the market did on day one was price in this global tariff happening. at one point we may see a universal tariff once the team gets in place and they figure out how to do it, but the focus will be on china first. trump has put a tariff on china in 2018 and 2019 and it's possible that he'll lift those rates up. what's interesting to us is that the currency markets prices in a 4% decline of the chinese currency and that represents 10% tariff and u.s. companies with the most leverage with china trade have significantly underperformed since the election and the market's done a

really good job of sniffing out that first step, but i wouldn't just say that this is about china. there are clear people in the trump administration who want a universal tariff even if it starts off at 2%, 3% 4% and they'll use the next couple of months how to do this legally, because it is unclear if you have the legal authority to do it, and one doesn't put the u.s. economy into a recession or two, make it worse since you were electioned on the campaign promise to get inflation down. that's why it's a deliberate process. you have to monitor it and it's going to change and that's why you have to focus on specific areas and specific industries where these targets can be for tear i tariffs. >> i was thinking of you while i was reading up on this, and yellen announced this in extraordinary measures and i know that can go on for four or eight months' time and is that to some extent a form of

stimulus at least for the time being? >> absolutely. kelly, everyone is focused on tariffs. we may not be doing anything on tariffs for the next couple of months and yet we have a $400 billion liability bazooka that starts today with 300 billion in february. it is literally the treasury department doing quantitative easing and i will admit it's temporary, but when that money comes into the treasury account into the u.s. financial system, it brings down bond yields. it brings down the dollar. so the entire macro trade post-election of higher bond yields and stronger dollar, begins to reverse and that's yet combination of the trump agenda basically being priced in lost his liquidity bazooka will reach a market rotation in the end of march and you're talking about $3 billion of liquidity. if trump puts a tariff on china is 50 billion per year.

the scale is so much bigger. >> it's a great point. >> it is so important to different companies in the macro environment, but the liquidity is much bigger. >> just to assume my ssumptions are correct and there are 651 billion right now. when you say they'll run down the buffer or your assumptions on how long this can play out. >> net liquidity which includes the fed balance sheet is what matters for bond yields and it's the combination of those and the fed balance sheet is protracting. they track federal spending every day and they have where federal spending and cash flow will be and we'll wind up spending a couple hundred billion between now and march before the april tax payments start to boost the u.s. cash flow. so they won't be able to spend all $651 billion before the april tax billion. if congress doesn't raise the

debt ceiling, kelly, then between now and august it will be a net $700 billion that gets spent out of the treasury general account and the big theme this year will be liquidity and it will be bigger than any tariff policy that trump puts into effect. there are negative sides to the trump agenda and there are positive sides, as well and those positive sides are not being accounted for by investors as much as the bad side and the positives probably do outweigh the negatives here. >> i remember first obama stimulus was $780 billion and we're talking about something and now the economy is bigger now and we're still talking about something of that scale which is worth noting. dan, thanks. appreciate it, as always. >> dan clifton with strategis. china is preparing for the next round of tariffs. eunice yun spoke to three manufacturers who have three very different approaches this time around. >> hoping to beat trump's

tariffs, harry lee is doubling the number of products he ships to the u.s. and storing them in warehouses them there. four out of five tables are sold to american consumers. lee expects the stockpiling will force him to raise prices as much as 10% even before the tariffs. i have to ship them in advance and take on more risk, he says. water purifier maker jeong yu is scouring the globe to supply the u.s. by creating a new production base outside of china. jeong is considering malaysia and mexico, but at the moment is leaning toward dubai even though it will increase his cost by 30% compared to china. the domestic market is too competitive. we've been waiting to jump out of it for some time. trump's tariffs gave us the final push. long who makes skincare products is worried he may have to stop

exporting to the u.s. completely. his goods got hit with tariffs north of 20% before president trump's first term. with his thin margins he can pass on the cost of any tariff to his customers. in the past we all felt the u.s. market was the greatest market that everyone wanted to sell to, but with all of the uncertainties and unfriendly decisions, the u.s. is less attractive now, he says. it's a real pity. and eunice joins us now from beijing and whatever will end up happening with tariffs. what is the ripple effect do you think it will have on the supply chain? >> well, kelly, i think it will really depend on where the tariffs are set. so if, say, president trump sets the tariffs higher or singles out china like in the case of the manufacturers i spoke to,

they're more incentivized to move outside of the country. however, because china is so efficient when it comes to manufacturing and has had very longstanding, decades-old relationships in some case wes american companies, if the tariff is on par, say, with mexico or vietnam, for example or even lower possibly, then a lot of people have been telling me that they would want to just stay here which means that china will be able to retain its advantages in the supply chains. >> right, and i guess, eunice they're also keeping an eye and i don't know if your manufacturers are, but it sounds like the leaders are keeping an eye on the exchange rate as it affects that, as well. >> oh, yeah. absolutely. i think that just adds to a lot of the uncertainty in the conversations that i was having with the manufacturers. i was asking them what tariff rate are you expecting? they were all over the map ranging from 10% to 60%.

a lot of uncertainty there, and i think that just goes to show how challenging it is right now for them to be able to kind of set their -- their prices at this point, and they're worried about what this means for the american consumer, but it also affects how much they think they're going to really commit to staying in the u.s. market which means that there potentially could be less choice for american consumers at the end of the day. the chinese shopping platform, as well and something to keep an eye on. eunice, thanks. my next guest says for now the market is taking on the market administration as glass half full as glass half empty and the republicans that likes low taxes and more regulation, but hates tariffs and while the talk was less hawkish for now we'll see what the future brings. charlie brabinskoi joins me now. the top-level view of the market, how does it shape up for

you? welcome. >> thanks. we always resist making short-term predictions, but clearly, there are sectors that are getting a new look, and it's not by a lot and it's early, but we're off to a decent start. as people look around about where there is less risk in a risky, unpredictable environment. they are turning to some stable companies that are trading at reasonable prices and again some of the very, very highly valued stocks. >> a lot of the sort of stable, we'll call it more lowly value stocks that you like are in areas that are right now in a bit of a turmoil, and i think of the energy space with the announcements and the downward pressure on oil. do you have to re-think where you're looking for the oracles of the world? i'm glad you brought up oracle which is having a great day today, up about 5%. well, what's interesting about oil and gas is i think there will be a lot of drilling around the world and president trump has made it clear that he does

not have the same leaning toward green energy that the past administration did, and so that's going to be very good for the service providers, the schlumbergers of the world and we own core labs is which up today and the idea that there will be a lot of activity, but you're absolutely right. much more production could lead to lower prices which would not be as good for the exploration and production companies apache which we talked about so much in the past. so i would look to the service companies doing fine in this new environment and the more commodity-dependent companies will be trickier. >> a similar story for defense. how often do we see this under presidential administrations? the out of favor sectors and that's how capital works, right? that's how it allocates itself. do you think we could see a similar phenomenon? >> yeah. this one is interesting. elon musk obviously has the ear of the president and believes in reshaping the military, less reliant on large cost systems

like manned flight and more reliance on drones. that would put some pressure potentially on some of the larger contractors, but what we've learn ed is defense spending seems to only go one way and that's up. these are not as cheap as they once were and i own lockheed martin and that's been a great name for us, but it is not near as attractive from the point of view as it was five or six years ago. again, people have fled to it because it is viewed as being stable and right now stability looks good. >> still, i take your point that maybe in oil it's more of a headwind and in defense it's more of an entry point and maybe the evaluations, you'll see. you're watching the housing space for that although housing feels like rates are whipping around the way they are and we think there are companies that can cut through that and do well, and it's hard on the local front, isn't it? it's hard to do national deregulation of housing. >> yeah. i think we're getting a political consensus on the need

to build more homes and we're getting a consensus that what stopped this from building homes is regulation. people point to the fact that houston has falling rents while california has very much rising rents, and so i think for the first time actually in my life time we're getting a consensus on that, and i think we'll see a real push to return the barriers to new housing and there's no doubt that we're building at the levels that we have historically and that we have a real housing shortage in the country and thera pent-up demand and that's not debatable. we like carpet makers like mohawk, thermostat makers like resideo. >> carpet makers and thermostat makers. that's how you play trump 2.0. >> there you go. >> charlie, thanks, as always. charlie bobrinskoy. as the president declares a national emergency on that front. will his first round of

executive orders help boost production beyond current recor? s&p global vice chair david yergin has the business world's reaction to that. plus canada

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that never gets old. know, this is kind of a global forum here. and we're seeing a big change in the global system that's existed into the second world war. >> is it a threat or is it welcome to other countries? this idea that the u.s. on top of record oil production we're already doing will do on top of the lng exports that we'll do more. is that perceived as a competitive threat or as an area of opportunity? >> and lng, the world's largest producer of lng and supporter is very significant. u.s. lng is very important to europe's economic survival and the cessation of russian natural gas, and one of the things the president's comments have done is to bring home just what a big business lng is. it's gone from nowhere in 2016 to being in total value in terms

of exports. half of everything we imported with semiconductors and even more so given the expansion since then. >> perhaps you just said so, but do you think the lng boom rivals the lng boom in size and impact? >> no. the ai boom is something entirely different, i think. last year here at davos, the ai question was what is ai? this year it's really about how do you implement it? cfos saying what's the return on investment and how do you apply it in terms of productivity or in terms of operations and the whole discussion around ai and there's a lot of it going up and down and what is the application going to be and that is, in a sense, hovers over everything. >> you've written about the new map and how copper and other tirls will be required for the energy transition and how much has the landscape changed now and for clean energy industries in particular given what trump

has done and announced in signalled and boosting the tradition of fossil fuels. clearly, he's not a fan of renewables and conventionals leaving the paris agreement. and insensitives and sun sdees and renewables and so forth. so he's basically saying we'll largely bet, and we'll see a bigger emphasis on nuclear power and you talk about the the energy emergency, that's about two things. one is about permitting and two is getting the infrastructure in place to support the data center and the ai boom that's coming that data centers could be 10% of u.s. electricity by 2030 and we don't have the infrastructure in place to deliver that. >> do you think the president will be able to get pipelines to the northeast to bring down their energy costs or is that never going to happen? >> that's, you know, for decades

have people have been asking that and marcellus, you have a vast amounts of natural gas and they're using diesel to heat their houses. so i think we will be in the regulatory thicket. however, i think what he's trying to do with the energy emergency is to find a way to expedite infrastructure. we are a system of courts and laws and this will all be tested in the legal system, but i think there's a driver and one of the big issues is to get pipelines built so we can take advantage of the natural gas abundance that we have in our country that puts us in a position that other countries just wish they could be in and dream of income that position. >> indeed. >> dan, thanks for joining us and taking a break out from davos and a peek into what's happening. dan yergin with s&p global. coming up, forget about the next four years. the next four decades could be decided who wins the ai race between the u.s. and china.

after the break, we will look at whatt wi te illakto preserve the lead or whether it's been erased. more after a break.

. >> welcome back to "the exchange."

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we'll talk to her about everything from trump's delay on the tiktok ban and fact checking, that's next.

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wall street souring on apple ahead of earnings next week. jeffrey's downgrading the stock to underperform, expecting a fourth quarter revenue mess, with capital moving to buy, citing iphone concerns, joining me is lauren marken, with a buy rating, and covers meta and netflix. netflix is after the bell today. laura, welcome. first of all,s that bar been lowered enough for earnings for apple you think? >> no, don't think so. they're saying iphone demand in china is down 18%, that's 20% of their revenue. more importantly, i think people were buying an iphone on the generative ai cycle. it's been buggy, and it looks like they might not be able to

get chips for the next generation iphone. so next year's ai will not be good, and another soft year for iphone sales, making people run for the hills from apple. so concern is still out there. >> you're not concerned enough to join the raft of downgrades? >> no, not yet. >> we'll see what happens. i was trying to get the gen moej -- emoji to work. what about meta? i always feel like there's an a ifx component to that. even as it was for a few hours. >> yeah, and frankly, because it's unclear that the executive can overrule the supreme court, the tiktok app is still not available on iphones or android, because there's no clear precedent that they can't get sued if they listen to the executive order, because the executive branch does not make laws. the legislative branch and the supreme court upholds laws.

so whether or not he won't enforce it for 75 days, lawyers at apple and google says the supreme court says we can't put this on, we're not putting this on. so we'll see whether tiktok -- i'm shocked they didn't have a plan b, because this has been going on for four years. they should have had a plan b so they can keep operating. >> earlier, you couldn't get tiktok in that apple store, apple's app store and google store. telling the a.g. not to enforce it is different than the law has changed. so yeah, that could be a near-term boost. what about netflix? there is a tiktok angle here, as well. evidently as my producers said, promoting shows like "squid games" in the past, a lot of that attraction was happening on tiktok. >> yeah, younger, right? so what it does is it moves to instagram reels, which is a meta

property, and it moves to shorts, youtube shorts, which is an alphabet property. so it just gets moved. by the way, there's a new chinese app that a lot of the kids are moving from tiktok to. so, you know, they will find a way to get shows, you know, this might be a two or three-week disruption and tiktok becomes irrelevant really fast. once the audience moves, they don't go back. >> the algorithm is so much superior. i don't even know how to find youtube shorts. what about the results today for netflix, what would you be looking for? >> looking for ads. 8.9 million subads, and where they come from, so the average arpu is about $11.70, which is a weighted arpu. u.s. arpu is two to three times rest of world, depending on region. so we want to see arpu holding up and any announcements they're raising price in parts oh of the world. that's good for wall street. also, that their ads aren't

slowing down. also, the ad tier, because we want the ad tier to make more money than the subscription tier, which every other service that happens but not net flick. so we want to see them closing the app between the ad-driven tier and the normal subscription tier. and also ad tier additions, we want to hear that, too. >> why is meta still an underweight for you? i think it's the only one on your coverage list. >> it's still an underweight for us, because we're worried about this generative ai. if you look at their capital spending profile, it's going up 50 times faster than amazon's and alphabet's and openai/microsoft, because they're starting small and they're going to try to compete in this really unknown kind of -- in addition to the metaverse, which they haven't shut down, they're going to try to compete with the big boys in the large language models, and they're paying third party rates for their cloud infrastructure. >> but maybe open source wins, i

don't know, but that's a fun debate to have. laura, thanks. that's it for "the exchange." thank you for watching. i'll join brian after this quick break. an 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. check in time is 3:00 it's 2:55. i know. is this what he's doing now? as your host, i have some rules. first, no showers longer than 5 minutes. this isn't a spa. no games. no fun. yes, coach. (♪♪)

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and welcome to "power lunch," everybody. i am brian sullivan. she is kelly evans, and we are drilling down on the president's executive orders. what do they