airlines with american, csx after the bell and texas instruments, speaking of semiconductors and the tech trade. >> that piece paints a picture of how globally interconnected everything is, even if globalization isn't so much a thing as it used to be. >> know tariffs and anything president trump has been saying about them has been moving the market. that does it for "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. all-time highs. the s&p hitting a record for the first time this year. and most of the mag seven seeing big gains. but will words of caution from the likes of jamie dimon and even e wlon lon musk put a damp the euphoria? plus, streaming gains. will the rising tide left all over media boats? we'll talk to longtime industry exec tom rogers to get some answers. and later, the chart

master's warning after apple's pull-back. and two health care names moving in starkly different directions. we've got the trades on j&j and moderna. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with a record day for the market. the s and p 500 hitting a fresh intrada high intraday high, as investors seem to look favorably on what donald trump will mean for stocks. yesterday's announcement of a $500 billion a.i. infrastructure project. nvidia and microsoft leading the pack. oracle putting together its best two-day gain in three years. one close adviser to the president appeared to pour cold water on the gains. elon musk saying they don't have the money to make it happen. jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon telling "squawk box" this morning from davos that he thinks the entire market is

overvalued. >> i think prices are kind of inflated. and you need really good outcomes to justify those prices, and we're all hoping for that, and i think, you know, having pro-growth strategies helps make that happen, but there are negatives out there, and they can tend to surprise you. >> so, is this belief that all of trump's promises will come to fruition and in the best of ways, is that justified in already baked into this market? >> he's walking into a market, and there's something going around in the internet today, nine of the metrics we talk about are in the 98th to 100th percentile of where they've been historically on the overbought side of things. that sort of flies in the face of what we saw in january or '09 when all those metrics were sort of 1% or 2% in term office the oversold. when jamie dimon says that,

there's reason to believe it. but with that said, these indicators are not a timing mechanism. we saw it all the time. but what i've tried to say is, what these suggest is the market has less and less room for error on the upside. >> so, you know, i always like to hear what jamie dimon has to say. >> of course. >> of course. i feel like animal spirits don't trade to fair value and stop, right? so, the pendulum has swung. we don't know how far it is in its path to go. i agree with you, you know, you can't really trade around and try to say, oh, i'm going to sell at fair value and i will absolutely have a chance to buy them back later. doesn't work like that. so, for me, i'm always staying long, though i do look at is the volatility index. i think it will be higher in the not too distant future, so, i'd be inclined to buy protection there. >> yeah. last night, you were casting some doubt over these commitments, as well, in terms of the a.i. infrastructure project. >> listen, all these companies have already committed to spending tens of billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years to build

out their infrastructure. not all going to be in the u.s. and maybe that's the thing that's changed. whether it happens, and this is new capital, looking to kind of make these sorts of investments, i think elon is right. where does the money come from? these companies, again, have to be very careful about capex. i know they're not willing to ask for permission and they would rather ask for, you know, obviously forgiveness, you know, if the thing doesn't pan out, but i think we're going into a digestion phase. the last thing i'll say -- i'm sure i'll say more things, but in this bit, the trump administration is coming into a pretty decent economy. you have unemployment at 4%, you have pce and cpi, you know, on their way down, 3%, however you measure it, maybe to 2%. and you have gdp, it was 3% last year, expected to be 2.5%. these pro-growth sort of policies, if they work, should have gdp trending higher. so, i mean, to me, at the end of the day, no matter what side you're on, we want the economy

to do well and we want the markets to do well, and maybe they're set up well to do that, but there are some potential headwinds. >> so, first of all, elon musk's comments are interesting to me. maybe there's starting to be some sharp elbows, a little bit of infighting, some people are certainly fighting over who is going to get the allocations to some of these mandates or actually some of that capital. i think whether funded now, the message from the markets is, it doesn't really matter. the message is, there will be funding for a.i. i look at the bank of america fund manager survey, a lot of interesting data in there. the numbers that came out yesterday. first of all, a.i. bubble was really a distant, distant risk in terms of tail risk for the market. so, you know, if that's where the institutional community is, i think that's fair. the fed, who is meeting monday, suddenly, the fed could be a bigger risk for markets in the short-term. i think then a lot of this. i get back to, we have had some really solid earnings already,

you know, if you look what the banks gave you, we had netflix, we've had some, again, not the core is going to report next week, and really over the next couple of weeks, we're going to get into it. but the argument here is that margins are decent, that the -- some of the most important companies in the world are as profitable as hey've ever been. we came into this year as profitable as they've ever been. and i would get to the markets themselves. are we starting to see that relative outperformance of semiconductors in the qqqs again? and if we are, the markets are going higher. if you want it or not, it's the kind of leadership that says, get out of the way, and don't fight it. >> that was the question mark, right? whether or not the mag seven trade could continue this year. we got a great hand from the banks in terms of what we were dealt at the beginning of earnings season. fantastic. you needed the mag seven to work. so, if -- if fund managers don't believe, if a.i. bubble is not a top worry among fund managers at this point, and we're getting all this juice from all these promises, guy, aren't we off to the races? >> there's a great line about juice in a movie.

you better have a lot of it. and that's really -- >> what movie? >> it's actually called "the gambler." james khan, i believe. it was 1975-ish. >> if you are going to reference a movie -- >> just tell us. >> it shouldn't take five minutes. anyway, go ahead. >> not a lot of people -- i forgot what i was going to say. >> you need the juice. >> yeah, and it needs to continue. which is fine, but when you're trading at the valuations that we were just talking about before, it's important that it continues and it carries over, so, my concern is, obviously, there's enthusiasm. nvidia's gotten itself off the mat now within $4, $5 of the prior all-time high, but that's been offset by what we've seen in apple. >> yeah, so, there's been so many comparisons, obviously, to the late ' 90s into the dot com bubble. if "fast money" existed and i was on it back then, i might have been a little skeptical about how it's going to change industries in the near term. i think long term, a lot of us feel like this is a game changer and we get it. when i think about the late

'90s, in '95 when greenspan said the markets are showing a -- irrational exuberance, and the s&p proceeded to go up 25% a year for the next five years. we've had two 25% plus five years. the last year was clearly driven by the fateful eight, right? and i know cnbc has this thing about the mag seven, which is funny. you know, they should throw the broadcom in there, make it the fateful eight. so, maybe these companies, the capex comes in better than expected. that's what i'm really waiting for next week, to see what they have to say on that front. >> agreed. the capex numbers from all the other -- that's going to be important. but at least now, there's potential money coming from the government to replace that capex -- >> but that's the thing. it's not coming from the government. that was the chips act last year. that was -- >> a government-sponsor funnel from the private sector into some of these companies. >> yeah. >> maybe. >> let me just go to fateful eight, mag seven, whatever you want to call them. there's a couple of them that

even with this run, the valuation is -- you know, not too demanding, as guy would say, when you look at a meta, you know, mid 20 to 26 multiple, not taking account to the cash, same for alphabet. to me, those are still closer to value than they are to really stretched. >> yeah. >> is this the part of the show where we talk international markets, or -- >> let's trade the globe. >> let's trade the globe. so, if you look at international markets, the places around the world that were supposed to be so weak, they've really outperformed. they've outperformed over the last three months. the dax in germany is at all-time highs, it's outperformed the s&p by 600 basis points. if you look at international markets, and we heard this from j&j, they talked about a $1.8 billion fx headwind. their numbers were about what they're not doing and the growth that's there, it's a name i'm long, but they were talking about fx. so, i get back to, you know, companies like, first of all,

the european banks that have announced over the last couple of weeks, barclays, some of the rallies across those banks, and the german industrials, i think there's a trade here. i run an international etf, that was the i, by the way, in blicep, and aye been watching the companies over the last nine months, and these are the companies that are starting to inflex into some of this u.s. strength. i think they -- >> what about china? >> what about it? >> well, i'm just saying, it seems an outlier to the theme you just mentioned. if china is going to be at thaert of the heart of any trade war here, at some point, they have massive deflation. if they exported that around the world, that makes those headwinds for those economies that much worse, right, relative to ours? >> some more than ore thers. what's been interesting is the rally that we've seen globally is kind of like, day one, day two, tariffs were not the number one criteria, the number one

initiative out there. so, i don't really know what the timing means, and i do know that the headlines are certainly going to continue to be nasty, and i do think the world needs china here, but i think china is priced so doorly. >> may i direct a question to tim? >> oh. >> am i allowed? >> yes. >> thank you. >> nice that you asked that, though. >> there's a bank of japan meeting. >> okay. >> they're talking about -- there's a lot of interesting things going on, which you know, i'm kidding around, but you know, told recently, the yen had almost weakened to levels we saw over the summer, it stopped, but their interest rates haven be going higher, so, there's a lot going on in japan now that i don't think the market is paying enough attention to. >> you talk about the systemic risks, the bigger risks are that not only japan is a problem, but also that the fed is going to have to be more hawkish than they want to be, so -- i think the rest of the world is worth focusing on, even though, again, the start of this conversation was about a.i., and what's really been driving our markets the last couple of days. >> just one last thing on international and europe. i think the chance of a

ukraine/russia something positive -- >> cease-fire. >> yes. has gone up a fair amount, and i think that's somewhat reflective. if they reach some sort of agreement, there will be more to come for, certainly germany. but all over europe. >> all that said, u.s. banks or european banks? >> ah, european banks are cheaper, and they have higher distribution payout levels. and as much as there are systemic credit problems across europe more than the u.s., i like those names. i'm very long citi bank, bank of america,jpmorgan. >> go ahead. >> real quick, citi is the one that think in terms of valuation, i think that one, even with the move we've seen from $60 to $82, that's interesting. >> going back to the point karen made earlier, in terms of the overall market, and if we're in a euphoric state, how the pendulum doesn't usually stop right at the middle, it goes beyond -- it feels like we can -- i mean, can we go higher from here?

it feels like the market's want to believe all the promises, all of the -- >> yeah. >> potential, all the hopes. >> let me throw something else down. back in 2017, when the tax cuts came, you know what the corporates did with those tax cuts over the next two years? they bought a trillion and a half dollars back of stock. if you think about that, that could obviously be a huge, huge tailwind. i want to ask, are we doing oracle here or later? >> we can do it right now. >> everybody is -- >> what is going on? >> i'm sorry. >> that was if the rundown, we were going to do some stargate, but we got into european banks or something like that. >> take it while you can. >> it's next. >> grab a spot. >> real quickly, i'll do oracle thing. i find it really ious that the stock had a huge rally, came in from it. we were talking about it last night. when the stock sold off when they reported q-2 earnings, yeah, people were excited a little bit about 50% cloud growth for them. it's off a really small base. $2.5 billion in the quarter, about 17% of their revenue in

the quarter. but people were concerned about the guidance that they gave on a sequential basis. it was supposed to decelerate below 30%. when you think about this, for a company like oracle, you better have some new funding, you better have expanded deals and be able to compete, you know, with microsoft, google cloud, aws. i don't think they have the models on their cloud that's going to make them that interesting for other companies to kind of rent that compute. so, decelerating growth, this deal, you know, maybe it sticks, maybe it doesn't, but to me, i think you want to be skeptical of some of these companies that rallied off this news. >> real quick, oracle traded 44 million shares today. typically trades eight. and it's had a ridiculous run that this recent run is actually got the stock from relatively inexpensive in this environment, to a little bit expensive. so, i'm sort of with dan on this one. >> may i move on now? should we take a vote? >> appreciate you asking. >> i'm not asking. apple shares are up half a percent tea, but down almost 1%

in january. nvidia reclaiming the position at the world's most valuable company. yesterday bumping apple to the number two spot. and microsoft getting close to pushing it down to number three. the chart master is doubling down on the call he made back in november. keep on selling. carter worth joins us now. carter, why? what do the charts show you? >> yeah, yeah, i mean, what is it -- i guess there's that old fashioned technical expression, the stock doesn't act well, and people don't like it, they're like, what are you personifying the stock? when a pitcher doesn't act well, they say, get him out. if a player or a student, let's change horses, so to speak. so, what we know, just year to date, apple is down almost 11% in a market that's up 3% to 4%, if you look at the market overall or the tech sector. but we do have one chart. let's talk about it. it's a relative performance chart. and what it depicts, of course, is a ratio. it depicts apple's relative performance to the tech sector.

what you're looking at here is the peak, which was in q-32022. now, one could say, hold on, i went and checked, since the end of q-3 2022, apple is almost 50%. this is true. but the tech sector is up 100. so, what that means is, that's the definition of a bad pick. you can say, i don't care, i made 50%. if the alternatives are better, it's the definition of no alpha. that is a big problem. being down 10% in strong goings for the year is a problem. and then, there is this pattern that i think is problematic. you can call it head and shoulders s if you want. it has all the look and feel of something that is rolling over. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton worth. >> you bet. >> and then, on the fundamental side, you have a lot of wall street analysts coming in, getting much more skeptical of apple. yesterday, there were two downgrades, the week before, cutting the price -- it's piling up.

>> you don't see that. and it's -- so, head and shoulders, yes, but the question you have to ask -- i'm not bringing back the ask -- if you have to have your ace pitch through some of the troubles he's having. that's the situation right here. piece of confetti flying by karen's ear. 220 was a huge level, and bounced. that's where we held recently. but it closed below 220, sets up a potential move, round trip that june move back to 193. >> if a pitcher has great stuff, and he has four, five pitches he can go to -- >> is that a movie? >> no, it's a sport. >> it's actually services business and margin, i mean, these are things that i think should give investors a lot of confidence. in quarter, and what we're going to get out of apple is not going to be about the quarter itself, it's going to be about the outlook. when i think about places that apple can continue to keep investors happy, and again, be that ace of the staff that isn't necessarily pitching their best game right now, that's what they're going to do here. they have a second and a third

pitch that can get people out. in the case of apple, they are buying back shares, the valuation is going higher. they have an incredible free cash flow generation. they have an install price that hasn't priced in a.i., that's fine. but it's not in the price. so -- >> what is the second or third -- granted, i really cannot continue this metaphor, but i will do my best. >> doing a great job. >> what is the second or third pitch, though? they need to roll out a.i. features that make people want to buy phones and we have not seen that yet. what is that next thing? >> i think their fastball is the iphone and the ability to refresh that over and over. but the second and the third pitch are services and margins. the margins are better, okay? the margins are getting better. and they will continue to get better, i think, at least, in the short run. services business isn't growing at the delta it was five years ago, but it's still such a meaningful part of the business. that's where i am. i mean, every team needs an ace of the staff, and, you know, yankees probably have too many. >> you are 100% right on the

margin thing. it was 43% a few years ago, now 46%, almost 47%. that does come from services. kids are not going to upgrade their iphones is tiktok is not downloadable in the iphone store. this is a massive headwind, you know, for the kids upgrading. like, matter o fact, okay? and the other thing is, china's really weak. there's new form factors coming out in the fall. let's see if that's that third pitch or whatever it is, but -- >> knuckleball. >> look at you! fantastic. >> typically a knuckler doesn't have -- >> that's their only pitch. >> what do you got? >> at what point is tommy john surgery? >> oh. >> that's fair. so, is there a ucl tear that's slowly happening in apple's game -- i love the sports metaphors, we can do it all night. coming up, it's not in the game. shares of electronic arts dropping after a big warning out of the video game maker. the news sending that stock lower, next. and speaking of earnings,

travelers higher on its report. how the california wildfires are impacting the company, and what the results mean for the entire insurance space. don't go awhe.nyer "fast money" is back in two. which is not that. what's up, my brother? oh, hey, bud! we really needed this rain. right? [car splashing rain water] agentforce helps restaurants prevent dining disasters. paddle on over! it's what ai was meant to be. we got you, brother. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. >> you're a small business owner. you don't have time to

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money." shares of ea dropping afterhours. the video game company slashing full-year guidance and reviving its forecast for the holiday quarter lower. steve kovach is here with more. >> this just keeps dropping. it was only down about 5%, now down nearly 11%, it looks like. and this is because in the december quarter, electronic arts says its global football business, not american football -- this is soccer, their football club '24 game did not perform as well in the december quarter as they had anticipated. they saw some early momentum early in the quarter, hence the guidance, but now, they're knocking off half a billion dollars for their full fiscal year guidance for the quarter ending in march. and that's just based, lackluster game play. there's one other game that also underperformed, a game called "dragon age inquisition." i know you guys are huge fans. guy's been playing -- >> all he does. >> level seven mage here.

>> i'm eight by now. >> and that game also underperformed. that's what we're seeing. we've got a really exciting year of video games coming up. nintendo switch 2, later in the year, "grand theft you a taupe." that is going to just print money. that's coming from take two interactive. so, some lackluster gaming performance at the end of last year, this year, it's going to be different. >> okay, so, the console upgrade, how is that -- do we know details about the console -- >> we'll t more on april 2nd. they just showed it off briefly next week. that's going to be the next big story. electronic arts, by the way, will have titles on there, will be able to take advantage of that, and the thought is, later in this year, that "grand theft auto" will help lift all boats in the gaming sector. disappointing holiday quarter for ea. february 4th, they'll have real earnings. we'll get all the details,

explanation maybe why this happens and where that energy went. one game that they do have that has been performing well, they brought college football back after the n.i.l. issue was resolved from the supreme court, they were able to bring that back and actually pay players, and so, that's been a huge success for them, but their biggest game is football club, not doing well in the december quarter. >> all right -- >> what's the nerd game that musk plays, like -- >> diabol? >> who makes that? >> activision, microsoft. >> guy is so into this. >> what? >> do you think there's any -- i put the ea -- >> i hope my parents are watching, by the way, i'm talking about video games. >> i am a nerd. i mean, put it out there. >> just not like that. >> were you playing dungeons and dragons? >> hundo. >> in costume? >> ea is the e in my gen-a.i. trade. is there any potential for m&a? you see take two out there --

>> that kind of evaporated after the take two deal buying zynga. we have not seen much, in fact, it's been kind of contracting. we've seen a lot of layoffs in the video game industry, we've seen a lot of changes elated to that kind of stuff. it's really kind of setting the stage here in order for this next stage of growth that's expected with the new nintendo console, with the launch of "gta" which is going to knock every record out of the park. you think we get excited when movies make a billion dollars in two, three weeks, this is going to do that in a couple of days. >> steve, thank you. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. rising subscribers, prices, and stock. how netflix blew past wall street expectations with their latest earnings report. and what it means for the streaming wars. but first, insurance stocks in focus, as results start to filter in. how travelers was able to handle higher losses from the california wildfires. and what it will mean for the

rest of the industry. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. to you. oh. >> hi, frank. >> hey, goldie. sorry to bother you. i'm looking for those reports from yesterday. >> they're already on your desk, frank. >> of course they are. >> got them right here. >> hi, frank. >> introducing individual. >> audio zones. easily isolate phone calls to the driver's seat. and the all new three row infiniti qx80. >> for your. >> cardiovascular health. >> impacts everything. >> and we. >> mean everything.

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on alaska airlines. the airline just reported earnings, earlier than expected. the first full quarter since the hawaiian airline deal ebeau is . >> the earnings parade continues for the airlines which had huge numbers in the third quarter. alaska no different. earning 97 cents a share. that is more than double what the street was expecting at 44 cents a share. revenue coming in better than expected at $3.53 billion. the revenue per seat mile was lower than expected, and the cost per seat mile was greater than expected. that's really the only thing you can really quibble about in this report. then, there's the guidance for the first quarter of this year. smaller than expected loss of 50 to 70 cents. the street is expecting a loss of 72 cents. and for the full year, the guidance is greater than 575 a share. that's a tad light of the current consensus of 592, but that gives them wiggle room, in

case they outperform throughout the year. year. lots to discuss with the ceo tomorrow on "the exchange." a cnbc exclusive, you do not want to miss it. and again, alaska beating on the top and bottom line. melissa? >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau on alaska, which is up by 1.7%. this follows a number of airline stocks which have done quite well this year on the back of strong earnings. >> well, in fact, you got airline companies, ual, that have jut outperformed nvidia. what's going on in airlines, and phil actually talked through those acronyms, cost per available seat miles or revenue per available seat mile, that's what we like to do here -- >> what you like to do. >> yes. those numbers are growing. and for the most part, the industry continues to be more efficient than they have been. it's a case where capacity is not really growing and prices are going higher. >> i got a question for guy. >> oh! >> united airlines opens huge,

right? >> closes low. >> closes lower. >> not good price action. >> 15 million shares. >> big volume. look at you. reversal -- >> in your head. >> your kind of thing. >> it's exhausted the rally and whoever was long the stock took the opportunity to get out of it. i think you bring up a great point, which leads me to my next point, if i may. it's american airlines. what's the show on cnbc -- >> "power lunch." >> depends on when you eat lunch. if you eat lunch at 11:00, then it's "money movers." >> it was january 6th or 7th that kelly interviewed the analyst from jeffries, and then i came on this show and i said, i just saw a great interview earlier today and the jeffries analyst upgraded the stock, saying american was getting a higher margin business. that's the beta play. and look at american's actually done really well. so, american airlines is completely underperformed. they report tomorrow. i think it will start to outperform. >> american airlines has been a disaster. it's had a bad balance street.

they have the most to improve here. so, it makes sense. >> you mentioned comments about boeing from -- >> oh, yeah. i don't know if you watched the scott kirby interview, it was very good. he had some nice things to say about boeing, you know, they've had some issues. >> issues. >> he felt like boeing -- >> being banned, by the way? >> it's the z in carbed. >> that actually is -- >> band. >> wasn't it the b in blicep, too? >> no, that was baba. the b in your zebra, by the way. >> anyway -- >> nice comments about the ceo, about morale there, he was visiting them, and he felt like, all right, things are bottoming out at boeing. all right, coming up, has the king of streaming been crowned? netflix surging to all-time hikes as record subscriber growth fuels gains. the price hikes hitting your wallet. what it all means for the other streaming players. "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go.

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money." stocks climbing again today with the s&p 500 hitting a fresh record high. the dow jumping 130 points and the nasdaq leading the charge up more than 1%. and some afterhours action in discover financial. shares on the move after the company reporting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. meantime, netflix shares rallying almost 10%, setting a record close after earnings last night. the stock getting within $1 of the $1,000 a share mark. it ultimately closed at $954. the streamer yesterday reported historic subscriber growth. one media trail blazer remains bullish on the streaming giant, with some caveats. let's bring in cnbc founder and contributor tom rogers, he served as nbc cable president. he's now executive chairman of orbit media and entertainment. >> he deserves a clap in. tim? this doesn't happen on the other shows. >> no, doesn't deserve to, either. when you have the godfather here. >> i'm breathless, i'm not going to be able to offer any analysis after that. >> what are the caveats, though,

to netflix's success story? >> i've been a huge bull on netflix, but #i think taking a step back, there are probably four areas that i'm watching now to see if they're really going to climb the next hill. one is certainly aggregate viewership. netflix does great engagement, average two hours a day per subscriber of viewing. but youtube, disney, nbc, paramount, when you aggregate their streaming and their linear services, all have more aggregate viewership than netflix, so, that's a big one for them to take on. secondly, advertising. they said that that was obviously going to be a huge priority for them this year, but just in the streaming space, amazon, peacock, hulu, all have higher streaming advertising revenue than netflix. now, if they double their ad

revenue this year as they projected, that may catapult them to the top, but another big one in the competitive arena to watch. third, they've aced technology when it comes to algorithms that put in front of you the things that you're most likely going to watch, which has something to do with their big engagement numbers. but they're going to have to take technology to the advertising realm. that's a big issue for the linear players, too, because they have a lot more spots in linear television than they do in streaming. so, to get those streaming ads ore valuable, they have to be targeted to be more valuable to the advertiser. netflix said it is bringing its streaming technology in-house in the united states, it's got to do that to enhance its programatic advertising. that's a big one that it's got to really demonstrate that it can get that much more value for its ads. and last is gaming. they really haven't done much when it comes to using gaming to

acquire subs or retaining subs. they did say, and this is -- was always intuitive to me, the gaming where they get the best engagement are the ones where there's netflix ip in the game, related to the shows. but to me, until they get those games up on the television set instead of on the phone, so you're playing them right after you're watching one of their shows and you really can continue the engagement of the viewer in a game beyond the tv show, they're not going to get there. and that's something that i think they got to put a lot of work into. >> the gaming aspect seems like a lever they can pull at another time when they are sort of out tricks. in terms of the ad-supported tier, they only launched in november of 2022, and so, compared to a lot of the others, which already had the infrastructure in place, in order to place ads, bring in the inventory, it seems almost unfair to say the others have much more, when more than 50% of their new users in the u.s., canada, and uk are opting for

the ad-supported tier. >> i think you're right. they -- they got a pretty good game, but that's an area where to really demonstrate that they're the most valuable media company in the world, across all realms, that advertising game has people ahead of them now and i think they have to demonstrate that they can lead the pack. >> there are some people that may think, when i say stud, to tom, there's some form of mockery -- >> no. >> there is no mockery. that is sincerity. i mock myself. >> you say that offcamera, as well. even when tom is not here. >> in email. >> when tom is not here, you will say that. >> in absentia. just wanted to get that out of the way. here is my question to you. with the stock at an all-time high, is it time for them to use that as currency to maybe make some tack on, bolt on acquisitions? >> i know that's a serious and not a mocking question. let me give you a serious answer -- i don't think they

need to do much in terms of using that currency. i think obviously it is valuable as hell, and my mind, it's going higher. but they have so mucthe areas that i didn't mention, which is, they're the one player that's proved that it's got true global scale, and being able to maintain $18 billion in content investment that drives the engagement and a price value relationship, where they can take price increases, when you got to -- a fly wheel like that going, the notion of engagement, i'm sorry, acquisition, i don't think is a big one for them, but i must say, i think they will get to a point where these free advertising supported streaming service, so-called fast channels, which, when you turn on your tv, there are hundreds of them now, at some point, that

is a way to improve their advertising game, in terms of total scale, without having to push more inventory into the advertising side of their subscriber base. and down the road, that may well be something they consider. >> tom, there's never enough time with you. thank you for stopping by. >> thank you. and thank you for clarifying that's a serious -- >> i'm surprised i even have to do that, but you know. >> well, your tone of voice is sometimes mocking. i can understand why there might be some confusion regarding that comment. >> tone of voice. >> anyway. are you a bull or bear on netflix? >> for everything that tom laid out, we talked about it last night, here's a companying that's firing on all cylinders. you look at their earnings growth, the margin growth, it's hard to say no. i just don't any think you chas here. i think they should buy a company like snap. i'll tell you why -- >> because you own snap. >> no. remember when disney really wanted to buy twitter back in 2016?

i look at a company like this that is a real technology company, and they're going into advertising, and there's no way for stuff to go viral outside of their platform per se. maybe a little advertising. i think a network like that bolted onto netflix, i think there's a lot of way to grow that advertising. >> that over spot? >> yeah. and spot's too big. but they could buy ea on the gaming front. and ea is getting cheaper by the minute. coming up, a divergence in the health care space. shares of j&j and moderna heading in the opposite directions. plus, travelers jumping on strong earnings, even as the future of the insurance industry. how california's wildfires are effecting these names, next. >> with income products from

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davos 2025 andrew ross sorkin and sara eisen sit down with world business leaders on the geopolitical outlook and key global economic issues. the ultimate power summit special reports continues tomorrow. cnbc. welcome back to "fast money." shares of travellers taking off. the insurance company profitability, a sensitive topic in the wake of the deadly california wildfires. contessa brewer is here on-set for more on travelers, as well as the entire insurance space. >> while we're seeing new warnings coming in, new evacuations, they just evacuated a school in california, so, that's a big deal, but where are growing profits potentially a problem? travelers running on all

cylinders. a record year for profits. pricing power moving forward. and in its earnings release and on the call, travelers was careful to couch its profitability and its potential with sympathy for the fire victims in california. it said its strong balance sheet is crucial to being able to go out and respond to those customers in need. now, it's not really clear how many customers in need travelers has there, because it has been working hard to limit its exposure in california, especially to wildfire risk. because for years, the state insurance commissioner has denied requests to increase rates. we heard this from multiple insurers. travelers says the impact to the first quarter earnings will be material, because of those fires. still, insurance companies in general are getting publicly criticized for canceling policies. or not renewing ahead of the l.a. wildfires. that's a big pr problem. though, it's bigger for some of travelers' competitors. across the nation, customers are

just getting sticker shock when they open their insurance bill. now, higher premiums, of course, are great for investors. the stock was up 3% today on that phenomenal earnings report, but it's a fine line to walk between investor sentiment and consumer sentiment. and travelers said on the call, it is still working consistently to get the returns that it is targeting in property insurance. you can go through many quarters where their loss cost exceed what they're earning in premiums, and then they have a few great quarters in a row, and that's what the focus is. >> how do we think about this disaster, since they're still gathering estimates and the impact overall, in terms of reinsuring? i understand it's annually, so, by calendar year, i think it is -- >> yeah. and we just saw -- >> beginning of the year, right? so, it doesn't -- if they're going to eat up a certain amount for the detectible for the reinsurance this early on, it leaves them less for the remainder of the year and other disasters. >> they were trying to be careful around the specifics of

the wildfire, they said the first quarter will lead into, i think, off the top of my head, it was something like $100 million for, you know, per event, or something. something along those lines, so, it all feeds into what they need to spend before reinsurance kicks in, in other words. so, they won't see reinsurance kicking in for the first quarter, but maybe later in the year once they hit that cap. >> contessa, how do the california wildfires and all the losses we've seep across, you know, disasters seemingly all over the country, affect some of the other business lines that are doing so well? part of the story today was travelers is kicking it in business insurance, the margins there are through the roof, a lot of personal lines. do any of those divisions, do they pay the price for it, are they offsetting? >> even -- in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, they were still improving in property insurance, even though they're not getting consistently the targeted returns. they're still trying to make up for the quarters where they weren't getting the returns. but look, nii, the investment

income, is remarkable coming in. and that doesn't even get -- the analysts don't include that when they're looking at the revenues for the quarter, like, that sort of -- oh, that's icing on the cake. you did great in your investment income, i don't get why -- >> higher interest rates. >> and that's part of it. i mean, like, why -- >> they don't put it in. >> oh. >> it's beyond me. two is that when you're looking at the commercial insurance, the rates are also going up there. what they're getting. they said something like in their middle market, in business insurance, 80% of the policies saw rate hikes over the last year. when you're getting that sort of consistent return, of course that's going to be good for investors and they're retaining those customers. >> contessa, thank you. coming up, a tale of two health care stocks. moderna and j&j seeing big divergence today. e thheadlines behind the moves, next.

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with accenture. today i'm here with margherita della valle, ceo of vodafone. you were employee 25 in vodafone italy. today you're the ceo of vodafone. what is your strategy and vision for the future? >> we are changing our culture to really focus on our customers. we need to acknowledge that change is hard, but if people understand it's for the right reason, then you get the power of the organization with you. >> despite the big gains for the banks this week, their stocks have quite a bit more upside because of those earnings explosions. all they did was make the price to earnings multiples lower than we think, mu

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human cases in the u.s., and one death. shares are now up three days in a row, but are still down nearly 80% from their 52-week highs. so, what is the prognosis on this name? it was mention ed by the way during that stargate announcement yesterday, he was talking about how a.i. could help vaccines and specifically a cancer vaccine, which moderna does have in its pipeline. >> so beaten down that if you want to just play it to play a little stock market here, it's not ridiculous to sort of play that game. because if these headlines continue, with each passing day, you'll see that move. but i'll say this, the problem that were around derna for the entire move lower, and that move has been significant, i don't think have gone away by the stretch of the imagination. >> johnson and johnson down despite an earnings beat. sales of cancer drugs ing revenues up. the stock is down almost 2%.

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>> a great stevie ray vaughn story in the break. >> i can't even remember what it was. >> life story. >> you know, i mean -- >> do have a trade, or what? >> i have feelings to. >> we know. >>ive i've heard that before. citigroup. i think it continues to climb. >> thank you for watching "fast money." "mad my mission is simple. make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." i'm trying to make you a little extra money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1--- we didn't talk about the federal reserve, other than wh