overnight and you get a monster ipo, potentially venture global lng exporter tomorrow trading. >> for sure. i've got my eyes still on twilio. we just had the ceo on that stock is still up about 10% in overtime. smaller software stock in the midst of a turnaround. >> all right. record high for the s&p. that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site. >> in the heart of. >> new york city's. >> times square. >> this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. president trump with some strong words for the fed. and jerome powell on the direction of interest rates. what he could do about rising rates and what it will mean for the market. plus a boeing bummer shares lower if the company preannounced weak results for its latest quarter. how the traders are playing the game now. plus, we dig in on earnings from texas instruments. industrial giants like. ge saw two decade plus highs and. >> the fight. >> against norovirus. the pharma companies rushing to find a vaccine amid the surge in the scourge. i'm melissa lee coming

to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. >> on the desk tonight. >> tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan and guy adami. we start off with president trump doubling down on his call for lower interest rates, following up a fiery keynote speech at davos. >> with. >> a flurry of new comments just a short time ago in the oval office, trump started the day telling the davos group that he will demand interest rates drop immediately. then this afternoon, he added that he expects the fed to listen to him, and added that he knows more about interest rates than fed chair jerome powell himself. this all coming ahead of next week's fed meeting, where markets are still overwhelmingly betting the central bank will not make a move. our eamon javers has more from washington on this. eamon. >> hey there melissa. >> i guess you could call this a couple of shots fired across the bow of the federal reserve from president trump today here at the white house. and those two different sessions that you're talking about, one this morning, speaking remotely to executives in davos, in which he said he's going to demand that interest rates start to come down

immediately, not naming federal reserve chairman jay powell by name, but clearly that's who he's talking about and saying that he expects that interest rates around the world would follow. and then in a session with reporters in the oval office here at the white house later in the afternoon, he was talking about interest rates. and here's what he said. >> i think i know interest rates much better than they do. and i think i know certainly much better than the one who's primarily in charge of making that decision, but know i'm guided by them very much. but if i disagree, i will let it be known. >> so you heard the president there, referring to the one who primarily makes that decision. clearly, he's talking about jay powell, without naming him there and saying that he's going to continue to jawbone the fed in order to try to get interest rates down. the fed has said it's going to be resistant to that kind of political pressure. so that sets up some tension that we've been expecting with this administration between

powell and trump. trump has signaled that he wants somebody else at the head of the federal reserve, but won't take any steps to try to remove powell. powell has signaled in return that he's not going anyplace, that he doesn't believe. the president has the authority within the law to remove him, and therefore he's not going. and so that sets up a very public dispute here, melissa. you know, we've seen white houses very grumpy at the fed in the past. doesn't always erupt into public view and doesn't always erupt into public view in the first week. but that's what we're seeing here. back over to you. >> all right. eamon thank you. eamon javers from washington. you know that's a big claim. >> that he. >> is trying to. make there. can he actually do anything. i don't i don't think he can. >> yeah it's. >> a dangerous. >> conversation in terms of but it's not political. >> but the federal reserve. >> controls the. >> front end. >> they lowered. >> rates in september. >> the front end of the curve. >> has been sort of stable. >> they don't. >> control anything past that. you would think. >> i would. >> hope the. president would

know. or people in his cabinet and administration. >> in his circle. >> would know. >> as well. >> the interest. >> rate market is going higher for a myriad of different. >> reasons. >> by the way, not. least of which some of this policies this. administration is. >> looking. >> to implement. >> yeah, yeah. >> boy, this. >> seems like deja vu. >> i mean, we've had this kind of. joust going on before, i think. >> between the fed. >> and. and donald trump. and it's interesting. i mean, first of all, i'll say this over and over again. one of the one of the reasons why. that little blue book you carry in your back pocket called. >> us passport. is a very. >> special thing, is. >> because of our central banks independence. >> and i do think. >> that the fed. >> at least somehow can control inflation, which i think is really depicted on some level through the long end of the curve. but we're at a place here where i think everyone is very aware. since the fed started cutting aggressively, this is one of the first times or the few times in. >> history you've had. >> this kind of a sell off in rates, especially at the long end. and that's. >> really actually. >> what we're talking about. and i would make an argument after some oversold. >> conditions in terms of bonds.

>> so upwards. >> in yields. >> going into that cpi print that we got last. >> wednesday, i actually think we're still very much in an uptrend. and i think this is something that's going to be a bit of a head on. this is all happening by the way. while liquidity seems to be just going everywhere and a dynamic, at least around some of the early rounds. of policy statements and some beginning of some follow through is none of this is good for the long end of the. >> curve, as we say. >> so it's, you know, markets at all time highs. there is you know, if you want to just think about, hey, if we can force down rates and if we can force down lower oil prices, this is great for the economy, but it doesn't work like that. >> you can argue that maybe he has a little bit of, i don't want to say power. i don't go that far. but you know, he could possibly jawbone oil prices. but in terms of the treasury market, it's just too big and too deep for him to have that effect. so there could be a difference between just saying that you're going to demand lower interest rates versus i'm going to make them come down, which he stopped short of saying that. right. >> unless i mean, unless he's what he really. >> meant to say was totally talking about the near end of

the curve. >> and i want to put. >> as much. >> pressure as i can. >> on jerome powell. >> and so we will see. >> the. >> near end. >> of the curve. but just what you're talking about, that you push on the near end of the curve. >> and what's going to happen. >> when you go. >> you know. >> he doesn't. control ten. >> year rates. he can. >> yell all he wants. >> he knows this. >> so part of the reason that he won. >> was he talked about inflation is too high, too high. it hasn't been tamed since november 6th. >> so you. >> know he's wanting to. >> play both sides. does that make sense. >> yeah i mean. >> these guys have covered it. i mean if. >> the yield on the ten. >> year goes higher despite. him talking about the fed funds. >> rate going lower. what is it. >> speaking to. it's speaking to. >> you know, higher budget deficits. >> you know higher. inflation expectations. >> and the like. and so really. >> the only thing that fed. >> funds going lower does it. >> kind of gives. >> a better chance. >> that inflation gets restocked. >> and you know, the other thing is, is like. he's going to have a really. >> cozy relationship with the saudis. >> and i know we're. >> going to talk about. >> oil later. they don't want oil to go lower. you know what i mean? >> so there's a lot of. >> things set in place. >> if anything. >> that's happened. >> a lot of things. >> have gone.

>> up since november 6th. oil being one of them. >> it was trading above $80. >> just recently. and i think over the last. >> year, the average price was probably somewhere around 70. right. so there's a lot. >> of like there's a. >> lot of. moving parts here. and i think jawboning is really, you know, not. >> the way to achieve. >> the policy. >> goals that you want to, to kind. >> of see happen for a. >> lot of this. kind of. >> legislative priorities that you have and the priorities for the country and. >> changing the direction. >> and that's one of the reasons why he. did get elected. >> yeah. you know, some of the. >> policy discussions. >> that are going on and probably have to go on in earnest are tax cuts. and really what can happen in terms of extending the 2017 tax cuts. but there's some horse trading going on. and we're reading today about salt state and local income tax and the dynamics that are really important in some blue states, though, who have some pretty strong, i think, you know, senatorial republican support. and there's, you know, there's an argument that there already are places where some of this is net budget unfriendly. i mean, there's no question about it. so it doesn't mean, you know, salt taxes are going to change the prospect for the treasury market. i'm just saying that the entirety of all these conversations are ones that don't help. meanwhile, you know, you also have around the world,

i mean, the ecb, i just want to point out there's a lot of folks in, in at least in the futures markets, are betting on a 50 basis point cut by the ecb sometime soon. so the dynamics here in terms of what central banks are doing and the impact and some of those differentials, i don't know if it's going to help the cause in the us. i actually think it could. >> push treasury rates higher. >> we're going. >> to see, i. >> think, february 4th, how the. >> fed how the treasury. >> department is funding all. >> of this. >> and the front. >> end of the curve is so much deeper. so you can place a lot more. >> money, but. >> more risk. >> yeah. i mean, what this seems to underscore is that we don't really know the net effect of his policies. there are pushes and pulls right in both directions. and that's sort of the regime, the volatility regime that we will live in for the time being. >> yeah i mean i. >> think there's a. >> scenario i think. >> the bond market. >> is going. >> to. >> challenge this administration. when i say that, i think they're going to push the back. >> end of the curve continuing to go higher. >> i still think. >> we're going to see 5% in the near future in terms of ten year

yields. >> i don't think. >> he'll be thrilled. >> with that. but i also. think that jerome powell could come. out in five minutes and say, we. >> hear you loud and. >> clear, mr. president. we're lowering. >> rates by 50 basis points. >> and ten. >> year yields are still going to. >> go higher. >> and that's not. >> necessarily a good thing. >> yeah. in terms of his fight against inflation though it would be great to go to the american people and say your mortgage rates are coming down. right. the thing your. >> mortgage rate or not are. not tied to the. >> the front. right, right. no, i know and so my point is that he's trying to jawbone a part of the curve that he has no control over that we've actually seen go higher despite what the fed has done. so jerome powell. >> is not. >> the audience. is that what you're saying. no. >> yes. i'm not joking. >> yes i think exactly what you're saying. >> right. it's the consumer he wants to be able to say like we i am. trying to i'm demanding that your mortgage rates are going to come down. your credit card rates are going to come down. your borrowing rates overall are. yeah. i mean, listen. >> you. >> know. >> we've seen this before. i mean, we had. >> four years of this. and i think. >> the most useful. thing once we get by. >> the next few months. >> or so. >> is not focusing on the truth

or the tweets or whatever. it's really focusing on what's happening here in the policy and what the outlook for more of that policy put in place. and so if we. know that the tax. >> cuts. >> expire at the end of this year, and we can make an assumption just like they were in 2017, this was a major priority. if you can make an. assumption base case that they're. extended not going lower, then you can make some decisions about that. the tariff stuff he's throwing 25. he's throwing 60. he's throwing ten. he's throwing mexico canada china whatever. let's think about what are the base case scenarios. what are the things that he's going to be able to do. >> and a lot of. >> them are probably pretty palatable to a lot of investors. right. so i think. if we stop thinking about all these things, the back and forth, we don't have the brain energy or space to do this again. right? so i mean, that's my $0.02. i just don't want to sit here talking about this for the next four years. every tweet that comes. >> out. >> i still think that the labor market is the most important dynamic, as it always is. we had initial jobless claims today. noisy data series doesn't mean a whole lot in in the short term. but if you look at jobless claims, you know, the four week average at 213,000 is about as low as it's been at any time.

and again, so if the labor market is strong, if the pressures that could then be coming from some of the dynamics around immigration, again, say whatever you want about immigration. and this isn't a political statement. the statement is that immigration actually was about three times what it should have been over the last couple of years, and that actually has been very beneficial to the economy and to actually putting some easing, some pressure on labor. so, i mean, if some of those things, you know, abruptly reverse and there's a lot of politics on that, you know, sure, let it happen. there will be more pressure on inflation. and i continue to think that the fed's job balancing the labor market is going to continue to be what we watch more than anything for the next three months. >> for more on all this, let's bring in smbc nikko securities chief economist joe lavorgna. he also served as special assistant to the president and chief economic economist, excuse me, of the national economic council during the first trump administration. joe, always great to see you. i don't know if. >> you. >> still have a trump decoder ring or rosetta stone or what do you think he means ultimately, by the things you said about interest rates today?

>> well. >> a. >> couple of things. one, i. >> heard everything everybody said. >> and the tariffs. >> are not inflationary and less immigration aren't inflationary. but we could get to that. what i heard the president say. >> is, look, we. >> have high inflation. >> which is why interest. >> rates are high. >> and effectively to get inflation. >> lower. >> rates will fall. >> rates are. >> too high. >> because inflation. >> is high. >> and that really. >> is sort of. >> the fed's responsibility. >> the fed cut rates. >> 100 basis points. >> and yet long rates went up more. >> and it was due to risk premium associated with fed. policy where they should. >> not have cut rates. in november and december. >> those were mistakes. >> it will make it more difficult for the fed to get inflation under control going forward. so i put this squarely on the fed and that's how. i interpreted president trump's comments this afternoon. >> why do you think immigration changes and immigration policy and terrorists. why are they not inflationary. can you just explain. >> that. >> to us? >> it's very simple. >> so tariff. >> a tariff. >> is a price.

>> level adjustment. >> inflation is too much money. chasing too few goods related. >> to that labor. >> wages do not drive inflation. too many people. >> working or. too few people working has nothing to do with the inflation process. >> this is. twisted phillips curve ideology which has not worked and not. >> served the fed. >> well at all. so again, neither tariffs. nor labor cause inflation. too much money chasing too few. goods meaning. >> it's a monetary phenomenon. excess money and credit creation. >> is what causes inflation. >> do you think that the average american, when they're faced with paying ten, 20, 25%, whatever it is, the surcharge is going to be on whatever goods they purchased as a result of tariffs, higher prices that they will not perceive that as inflationary. they are spending more money on the same good, even. >> just by. >> you know, because. >> you're looking at. >> the tariff in. >> isolation, you're. >> not assuming. >> that there's. >> any offset. >> from a stronger currency. >> you're not assuming there's any offset.

>> from that. >> cost being. >> absorbed in the margin coming. from whoever is exporting to the us. >> and you're also. assuming there aren't lower energy costs because the tariffs are the incentive to bring production here. so you've got the tariffs. >> which are. >> part of the process to incentivize. >> companies moving here. in addition. >> to. >> low energy costs. >> business friendly regulation. >> and corporate. >> tax rates that go. >> from 21%. >> to. >> 15%. >> for domestic producers. >> in that world. >> that's a supply side. >> shift that is not inflationary. >> hey, joe, first of all, it's great. i think you're making the arguments that i think are important and certainly in opposition to what a lot of people are saying, including, you know, the imf points out that every if they just throw a blanket 10% tariff on the rest of the world, that that's, you know, i mean, whatever numbers you want to put on it. but different economists are putting different economic drag numbers on it. i care less about that. i care more about the comments you

made about, you know, this is really in the hands of the fed, and you actually think that they actually moved too aggressively already. talk about that. and do you think inflation is a problem? i mean, the bottom line here is you're right. i mean, the point is the point is to try to, you know, identify, hey, inflation is too high. it needs to come down. however it happens. whether it happens, i don't know. but it sounds like you think inflation is a bigger problem. and if it is, i'm going to just say that i think equities are really on the wrong side of that. so the. market's excited about. >> president trump's policies. >> you see that in. >> small. >> business optimism. you see it in. >> ceo optimism. but the. >> fed ultimately. >> controls inflation. when the fed cut 50in september which i was in the minority. >> i was of the view they were going to cut. 50 because the labor market at. >> that point in time looked very soft. they thought. >> the economy. might be weakening quite significantly. >> maybe there was a political element. >> to it, i don't know, but certainly from an economic perspective, one could have made the argument the fed should have cut. and they did. but by the time we got to november and december. that no longer was the case. and therefore i think that. >> was a mistake.

>> that hurt fed credibility. >> if you look at consumer expectations. >> of. >> inflation. >> tim. >> they're. >> still pretty high. so i think the. >> expectation is having gone through trump 1.0 and having. >> a good economy, gdp nearly 3%, inflation two or less. >> that will get the same outcome. >> but when you look at inflation expectations, they're high. if you look at the university of michigan data and if you look. >> at various. >> inflation metrics, i mean. >> even the cpi. >> last week, the core. >> people got excited. about that's still. annualized on the. >> month to. >> 2.7 rate. that's still 70 basis. >> points higher than where we were. so for the president's policies. >> to be successful. >> which i expect them. >> to do. >> we certainly need those energy costs. >> lower energy is a much. >> more important to the economy. >> than tariffs. >> as a much as a bigger weight. and there are. >> significant indirect effects that come from lower energy. >> costs, which obviously. immediately will lower inflation and increase real wages. but the. fed i blame a large part of this. we saw the fed do extended qe for quite some time, and they were way too slow to hike.

>> and i think they've. >> damaged their credibility. >> joe, always great to speak with you. thanks. >> thanks everybody. >> joe lavorgna where are we on inflation then? is it still a problem? is it coming down? is it under control? i mean, i. >> think it is a problem. i heard what joe said. it's fascinating, the commentary. tim just addressed it. >> but if. >> inflation is still a problem, lowering rates is not going to help that. now, i think what he's suggesting. >> is if they get. >> inflation under control somehow, then they'll have the. ability to lower it. it's but it's. what is one one leads to the other. >> i'm of the. belief that they should be. >> combating inflation now. >> and i think one of the. >> reasons ten year yields are going higher are because. >> of that. >> so let's just take home building for a second. if we have you talk about, you know, if. >> we have an immigration. policy that. >> greatly affects. >> the. >> number of construction laborers, right? isn't that then two. two money dollars of home builders. >> looking to. >> purchase labor that leads to inflation. >> in housing.

>> prices, right? and so i'm not really. understanding how that would not cause inflation. >> right. >> so i don't fully buy that, that i get that, that. >> there. >> will be efficiencies. potentially and maybe more productivity. but i think that. creates more more dollars. chasing maybe more things. >> but they chase fewer things. prices go up. yeah. >> we've got breaking news here on boeing. shares of the aerospace maker lower though well off after our session. lows after preannouncing fourth quarter results. phil lebeau has got all the details. hey, phil. >> hey, melissa. these are ugly numbers for the fourth quarter. not a surprise, given what we saw with the machinist strike and the implication that it had for commercial aircraft production. so here's what boeing is preannouncing in terms of earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, a gaap loss of $5.46 a share. now, there are not enough analysts to tell us exactly what the gaap estimate is. most report core earnings, and they expected a loss of a

buck 84. the gaap estimate that some are citing is a buck 36. any way you look at it, this is about $4 worse than wall street was expecting revenue coming in at 15.2 billion, $1 billion shy of expectations. and then there are charges in the fourth quarter totaling $2.8 billion. how do those charges break down? some of them are with the commercial division. some of them are with boeing, defense and space, the commercial division, $1.1 billion there, $1.7 billion in charges to the defense and space business. by the way, those are tied to five defense and space programs. we're not going to run through all of them. it's the usual suspects that we have come to know whenever it comes to charges. with boeing talking about the tanker program, air force one. et cetera. they will be reporting their q4 results officially next week. but as you look at the end of the year, they ended it with $26.3 billion in cash. one last stat here. and melissa, this is the one that

the general public will grab on to. and they will say, my goodness, how bad are things at boeing. 2024 is the sixth straight year they will report a net loss. and going into the fourth quarter, if you go all the way back to 2019, net losses totaled $32 billion. we don't have the total for the fourth quarter. it will be more obviously somewhere maybe of $3,536 billion. when it's all said and done. that gives you some perspective of what the last six years have been like at boeing. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau on boeing, the b and band. yes. acronym. the b in card. karen's acronym. tim, what do you think of these results? >> i think these results are what you'd expect. i actually think coming in and preannouncing is let's get it out of the way. i think the cash burn was not as bad as people could have expected it to be. i don't think there's anything surprising about recognizing these charges related to their their strike, which was a bruiser and actually carried on longer than people thought. the story is all about free cash

flow. it is about getting back to at least some place where they are not burning through this cash, and i think they'll be there by 26. >> if i were first. full quarter kitchen sink. >> yes, yes. >> yeah i know. so this doesn't change. >> the story for. >> me at. >> all okay. >> coming up. tech earnings season getting into high gear with texas instruments on the move after reporting the numbers out of the quarter ahead. but first bashing banks. president trump accusing some big lenders of political discrimination. the names he's calling out and what it could mean for the financials trade don't go anywhere fast. trade don't go anywhere fast. money is bac ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. getting there starts here.

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to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? for free. visit otter.ai or download the app. >> i hope you start opening your bank to conservatives, because many conservatives complain that the banks are not allowing them to do business within the bank, and that included a place called bank of america. this conservative they don't take conservative business. >> that was president trump addressing bank of america ceo brian moynihan at davos today. bofa and jp morgan both denying the claims that they don't take business from conservatives. wall street firms have come under fire from republicans recently for taking stances on issues like gun control, climate change, diversity, among others. it certainly hasn't stopped the bank trade at all. bank of america, for one, barely flinched after those comments.

in terms of the stock movement here. bank trade is strong. >> well. >> michael jordan once said republicans buy sneakers too. and i think in terms of banks, i mean. everybody's money is conservative liberal. doesn't matter, i think. >> i don't know. >> where this comes from. >> but. >> they say that. >> he did. yeah. >> well, you just heard him say it. >> no no, no. >> michael jordan. >> i mean. >> michael jordan. >> no. >> no it's not. >> they don't know. >> we don't. >> know exactly. >> but it's been. >> attributed to him. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> but point. >> being, like, there are a lot of. >> reasons to be. >> sour in bank of america. i don't. necessarily know if this is one of them. >> yeah. like wayne gretzky probably said, you had to skate to where the puck is going. and tim's got something coming up. i know you do. maybe something from the tyson family. >> maybe everyone's got a. >> plan until. >> you get. >> give me a chance. >> all right. >> it'll come when you least expect. >> i think he's. >> just getting some stuff out. you know what i mean? like, these. >> are. >> things, like, they definitely deplatformed, you know, conservative groups that were associated with, like, pizzagate and stuff. you know what i mean? like some stuff like that. >> of course. >> that happens. but that would happen on. >> either side of. >> the fence. >> so i agree, i agree, i don't

think. >> is when you fill out forms at jp morgan. >> or any. >> other bank, you they never ask. >> you. >> your affiliation. right? >> right. >> so i think it's just more of what you're saying, you know, he has a different. audience and that's. who he's. >> talking to. i think you're buying banks with two hands here. okay. i think some of the things that we're hearing, both from the economy and the administration, are very bank friendly. we've heard this also from other places. we had this conversation talking about net interest income in unexpected places and places that are not even really exactly banks, but certainly in the insurance companies who are investing and have net interest income on their investments. we talked about this yesterday. i just think i look at also positioning by investors. banks have spent ten years in purgatory. they started coming out. then you look at svb, it threw them back into purgatory. it meant a lot of capital flight. they weren't going to be able to give back money. look at the chunky dive yields in a lot of these banks. banks want to give back. that's the business that they're in. they're either buying money when it's cheap or giving it back when it makes sense to do it. you stay long banks and i think you stay long. the money center banks. >> coming up we are watching texas instruments after our

shares on the move as results crossed the wires of numbers and the details from the quarter next. plus energy in focus as president trump calls on saudi arabia and opec to cut prices. but our next guest says they'll probably head in the other direction. how crude oil and the energy space are reacting ahead. you're watching fast money. live from the nasdaq market site in from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right ♪♪ only servicenow connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. pfft ... every corner? every corner, nick. ow! so kate in hr ... hey kate. can focus on people, not process. oh actually, i have a question ... keep up, nick. do you have to be sick to take a sick day? patty in it is using ai agents to deal with the small stuff, so she can work on the big stuff. agents like secret agents? secret agents i control. with your mind? you know ... i played a secret agent once. - we know. - oh gosh ... i liked it. over here, ai gives tina the info she needs to get the job done. nick, what did we say about touching? no touching. good. ai helps jim solve customer problems before they're problems.

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and high profile interviews. scan to watch cnbc's crypto world, sponsored by crypto.com. >> welcome back to fast money. we've got an earnings alert on texas instruments shares down despite an earnings beat. kristina partsinevelos joins us here on set for all the highlights from the conference call christina. >> which is now over. but texas instruments signaling a continued challenges in auto and industrial chip markets. and this is just from the earnings call. over 70% of their revenues actually stems from these two sectors, with management stating, quote, we haven't seen the start of a cyclical growth yet in industrial across all geographies. the automotive landscape, very similar, shows a stark geographical. geographical divide. chinese auto sales grew, with higher ev content likely boosted by the stimulus package. but this growth really didn't offset, quote, significant weakness in other markets. also, personal electronics, representing roughly 20% of revenues, saw mid-single digit growth in q4. but management warns of, quote, a significant decline in q1, of course, due to

seasonality. the ceo also warning gross margin profit, which is a measure of profitability, will decrease a few hundred basis points as they manage inventory and reduce the utilization rate of their manufacturing facilities. the stark message, though, from this earnings call was we haven't seen a bottom yet. >> wow, christina. thank you, christina partsinevelos. >> and the other thing great job. by christina i mean. this is the 10th straight quarter i think of negative forward guidance. number one. number 213% year over year build in inventories against negative sales growth, which suggests margins are going to come down. it's shocking to me how expensive this stock is. and they continue to get the benefit of the doubt. >> it's also shocking that all of the things that they've said were largely expected, maybe just the degree wasn't expected, but weakness in automotive, weakness in electronics, weakness in industrial, all that was expected. a weaker guide was expected. and yet here we are. we are down almost 4%. >> yeah i mean the stock's been stuck in the mud for 4 or 5 years now. to god's point. it does trade expensive. you know this is pretty similar to what

we heard out of micron in mid-december about consumer electronics. i think it's also important to remember that apple is one of their biggest customers, nearly 7% of their sales. i don't think expectations were particularly high. the stock probably stays in. >> this range. >> yeah. i mean, i'll just say on a relative basis, the stock traded from 140 up to 200. and the setup was decent coming into the into this event. and i just think that the bar was too high. i think when you hear about less demand and rising costs too, i mean, again, this is a margin story that i think doesn't really even matter where you had the valuation. you have to assess it again. and i think that's what people are doing. i don't think you run too far away. and it's interesting because industrials and autos have had a pretty good 2025. >> by the way, this is the first of the semis really to report this season. so what does this tell you about i don't know like like the nxpi in your jen i trade. >> well i, i. >> think nxpi is probably challenged because they don't have a lot of the exposure and the places that people are

paying up for semis right now, and that's one of the reasons why it made it into the jen i because. >> it's a dog. >> if there's. well, no. but we're talking about we're talking about oracle last night. right. and we were talking about off such a low base why that stock was being rated rerated last year because of their market share that they were gaining there. and that's why i think some of these other names as it broadens out a qualcomm might fit in that category as we get more into, you know, copilot, you know, laptops and stuff like that. >> market wants to own semis. by the way. i just came back from being down 2% to finish flat. i think semis are up 10% on the year. it feels like a year ago. >> all right. coming up, president trump sending a shockwave through the oil market with a demand for lower prices. but our next guest says he is betting on crude going higher anyway. why paul sankey is bullish on black gold. next. fast money is back in two. >> missed a moment of fast. catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast. follow the fast money podcast. we're back right ehh... hmm. oh, that's very, uh... - right? - mmm... this store doesn't have agentforce,

so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails. it's what ai was meant to be. ♪♪ (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. >> welcome to reinvented with accenture. today i'm here with margherita della valle, ceo of vodafone. you were employee 25 in vodafone italy. today. you're the ceo of vodafone. what is your strategy and vision for the future? >> we are changing our culture to really. >> focus on our customers.

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solar generator and free panel. >> at. >> four patriots.com. >> welcome back to fast money. stocks up again today. the s&p 500 notching its first record close of 2025. the dow jumping more than 400 points. and the nasdaq also seeing a small jump. shares of hershey lower again today. the stock now down more than 11% in january, pacing for its worst monthly performance

since june of 2008. but luxury stocks seem to be back in style. a strong start to 2025 for the group capri, lvmh, tapestry. all higher. ralph lauren also trading at all time highs and bitcoin making some moves. today, president trump signed an executive order creating a crypto working group that will propose new regulations for digital assets and explore creating a crypto stockpile. the u.s. senate banking committee also selecting senator cynthia lummis from wyoming to head the new congressional panel on bitcoin and crypto assets, which will look into a strategic bitcoin reserve. lvmh is in your. it was. >> i still. >> own it. >> but it was really. >> didn't yeah the yeah the awful and helm. >> it had a very. >> tough year. we saw richemont which had a very big quarter relative. >> to expectations relative. >> to any of the other ones. so there was life there. and i think lvmh. >> just got too cheap. >> yeah. >> all right. career. taking a leg lower after president trump called on saudi arabia and opec to lower prices at the world economic forum earlier today.

for more on energy policy and trump 2.0, let's bring in paul sankey of sankey research. paul, great to have you with us. it's interesting to hear president trump and, you know, we had joe lavorgna on before who, you know, would identify with president trump in terms of policies. i believe that lower oil prices are very, very important when under the trump administration, it is almost taken for granted that he will be harder on sanctions when it comes to places like iran and venezuela. and that would mean higher prices, ultimately, that canadian tariffs would mean higher prices ultimately. do you think oil prices will go higher? what are the drivers in your view? >> well, i think, you know, as of about labor day last year, we got concerned about the oil market. and the obvious problem was was china. and in fact, 2024 ended with china recording its first negative year for oil demand growth, really for the first time in 25 years, and certainly its first ever

negative as a material oil market. china, having been responsible for 50% of the world's oil demand growth over the past 25 years. so a very big deal with china going negative. and at the same time, russia, as you know, and iraq, iran particularly continued to smuggle a lot of oil to india and china, which was effectively taking saudi's market share. so that was the setup into the back end of the year. and what was required was for saudi to hold the market together, which by the end of the year it was. and we found ourselves in equilibrium. what was the big surprise was that the biden administration then put tough sanctions on iran and on russia back to back, and that wasn't expected, as you know, the kind of final move, especially as it really seems to have played into trump's hands in many ways. so trump is now in a relatively strong negotiating position against iran and russia, and that both those situations seem likely to continue through the first half of the year. and then

the other big thing that we got obviously was cold winter. so when you put that sudden change and the supply dynamics togethey the first half of the year looks good for oil. we're tentative about it because there is still spare capacity, particularly in saudi. but, you know, nevertheless, i think the market looks a lot better than it did six months ago. >> paul, what are the. >> roadblocks for these big cap integrated names? if you hear tim, we talk about it all the time. their their balance sheets are the best they've ever been. if you look at them, they're more productive the more efficient than they've ever been, but they've been forced to be that. yet the valuations are ridiculously low and the stocks can't get out of their own way. i mean, what's going to be the catalyst, if any, to get them higher? >> well, look, you know, these guys are running themselves well, right. they're operating well. they're doing the right thing. they have good balance sheets, as you mentioned. they're returning cash to shareholders. and we just don't get any multiple expansion. and i think we're not going to, quite frankly, simply because the market will continue to discount the end of the oil age, even if it never comes. it will

always be a concern. and, you know, the latest mega theme obviously, is ai and all that that's doing for the natural gas market of the future. so you can get multiple expansion amongst the natural gas names, but for the big oil's, they're really going to trade as yield instruments. and at the moment, you know, it's a decent yield that you're getting out of them. particularly if oil holds 80 you're going to get towards a 4% type dividend. plus, you know, a 4% plus type buyback. so you're in the 8% return range. but that's about as good as it's going to get. unfortunately, unless we see sustained higher oil prices than the sort of 70 to 80 range. >> that's karen, thanks for being one. >> of his 333 is an additional. >> 3 million barrels of oil a day. do you see that happening? do you think the oil companies will push back on that? how do you see that playing out? >> well. >> my initial reaction was that he just needed a third three. and so he made one up, which was less increase oil production. but in fact he said i think it

was oil and gas. or was it energy production by 3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day? and the fact that he used barrels of oil equivalent, effectively a calorific measure means that he can add electricity, he can add natural gas, he can add coal, and he can say that they made the target. so, you know, is it meaningful? it really relates as well to drill, baby drill, which we're really struggling to find how you can make drill baby drill work other than some sort of additional subsidy to the oil companies, which i doubt you're going to get. so drill baby, drill has also been a bit of a mystery. the biggest wildcard, though, i think karen has actually been the canadian tariffs. i mean that one. you know we expect trouble in russia. we expect trouble in iran. sure we expect issues around saudi. but and you know, maybe problems in china but problems in canada was not on our bingo list. and that again is a huge a huge head scratcher because of course if you do cut, if you do increase canadian prices by 25%, which is what the tariff would effectively do,

you're going to have a huge potential upside in prices within the us as you scramble to recover those barrels, but the companies are still unlikely to want to drill into that very volatile change in the rules, you know? so drill, baby, drill and the 3 million barrels a day. i don't know how you get them, paul. >> thank you. nice to see you. thanks. thank you. it's got a pairs trade, by the way. and terra resources. long, short. carvana. always interesting to hear his pair trade. what do you think on oil here? >> i tell you, one of the. sleepy trades of 2024 was investing in mlps and kind of logistics around the energy space, energy transfer in particular. we're starting to see these companies, which were still taking five, six, seven years to get over what happened in the industry in 2016 and 17. and i actually think this is one of the best places to be investing around, you know, ngls and logistics around that. so i like that love what guy said about the integrateds. i think this is a great time to own the biggest companies in the world. >> last year in my column i forget though, if it was chevron

or it doesn't matter because they both sucked. >> i believe, i. >> believe chevron and. >> yours was. >> and yours was. >> got that in there. yeah. >> i took the other c. >> no, actually i had chevron in my bicep. so i don't know if we had the same things in our. >> but at least. >> we played it correctly. >> tim. >> well at least. >> we played it correctly. >> how did it. >> work out? >> well. >> are you going to say about. either conoco. >> i think. >> listen, i mean exxon and chevron, i'll throw them in all the same bucket. i mean, they all underperformed last year. they're all ridiculously cheap. they're all better run. they all have better balance sheets. it just doesn't make sense to me. i heard what paul said. people are betting on the demise of the industry regardless of whether or not it happens. but i just think on valuation is still very compelling. >> coming up, industrial strength some major players at new highs as earnings start rolling in, the reasons behind the moves and whether there's more room to run fast. money is back in two. >> you have one goal. find the perfect place for your company to grow. when you find what you're looking for, you feel it.

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>> copier has a great idea. >> i wonder if it's the. >> same. >> idea as yesterday. >> it's a performance issue. really. i know people push your buttons, but you still have to deliver. >> anything can change the world of work. adp assist is ai informed by workplace data and designed for the next anything. >> first, on cnbc, verizon ceo hans vestberg earnings outlook and opportunities for growth. plus, investing legend mario gabelli where he's putting his money to work. now stay ahead of the market squawk box tomorrow, 6 a.m. eastern. >> welcome back to fast money. heavy equipment stocks lifting the market higher today among the biggest winners. ge aerospace the second best performer in the s&p. the stock jumping almost 7% after an earnings and revenues beat. ge posting its highest close since october 2007. caterpillar also higher. the best performing dow stock is up 2% on optimism surrounding new power plants for i and deere. 3% higher hitting

an all time high today. can these industrial sized gains hold? now remind me, karen, you have an industrial in your acronym, but i can't seem to remember which one. >> because it doesn't line up with the name of. >> the company. right, exactly. >> well, let's say you were to rent equipment. >> what do you. >> think the letter would be? >> you are i. >> all right? call it what you will. still you or i. they report. >> next week. i think they'll have a good quarter. >> more importantly, they announced what i think is a very good acquisition for them a week or two ago. at&t equipment. i still like it. >> who is that? >> the old chart. the technician. >> used to come. >> louise yamada. >> and what she used to say. >> dan the. >> longer the bass, higher. >> in space. >> if our crack staff and ek can put up a chart of deere and company, formerly john deere, you'll see the base of john deere for quite some time now for about two and a half years. so you have this long base formation. >> i mean, do you when. >> you're when you're trading in the context of this. absolutely, tim i do because. >> now texts are there.

>> now we're having a very significant breakout. so that is a long base. the longer the base, the higher in outer space. louise is watching right now, by the way. hello. >> huge fan of the show. >> you know. >> you can't have a conversation about ge aerospace and without you have to applaud larry culp. i mean think about where this company was five years ago. it was a laughing stock. and yet there were so many great assets and core businesses. and i just i just want to say this. and as someone that probably sold upside calls on ge aerospace way too early, by the way, upside calls aren't a free lunch. you can sometimes trade yourself out of a position you should have stayed in. i did that with this name. i think you stay it. you go back to. >> coming up sick and tired of being sick and tired. the search for a norovirus vaccine continues as cases jump by more than 30% in the past year. the details from the latest trials and the companies that could stand to benefit more fast money and to. >> get ready for the big meeting. >> i have to write. >> this project plan. >> i just need to reply to 40

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dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five. it's five years of reliable gig speed internet. five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited time. high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. >> relief that's. >> into the community. the chef is in. >> welcome back to fast money. norovirus cases surging this winter up more than 30% in a year. and as americans hope to avoid the bug, some biotech names are looking for a vaccine that could squash it. angelica peebles has got more on this story. angelica. >> hey, melissa. >> yeah.

>> so moderna. >> has a. >> vaccine in. phase three trial. >> and that's already underway. >> the company telling me that the 25,000 person trial is enrolling ahead of schedule. now, they can't say that it's for sure because. >> of this year's spike. >> but there's. >> clearly a lot of interest right now in this vaccine. >> so moderna. sees an. >> untapped market because we don't have any norovirus. >> vaccines already available. >> and the biggest. >> opportunity they. >> see. >> is for seniors. and seniors are particularly vulnerable to the stomach bug. >> and they make up. >> most of the 900. >> norovirus deaths that we typically. >> see. >> in the. us every year health care workers. daycare teachers. >> and people going on cruises could also be interested. >> in this shot. >> now, the goal. here isn't to keep you from getting norovirus, it's to make you feel a little less awful if you do get it. moderna looking to lessen the gi symptoms and keep people out of the hospital. we could get these results. >> later this. >> year or next. and the timeline depends on how quickly. >> moderna sees. >> enough cases in. >> the study to assess. whether the. >> vaccine works. melissa. >> our analysts are excited about the prospects of this

norovirus vaccine, or are they concerned that there are going to be some issues, like with the rsv vaccine, where it was, you know, thought to be, you know, would be a widespread vaccine, but then the addressable market actually got narrowed as time went on. >> well, this is a little. >> different because. >> rsv, of. >> course, there's. >> three. >> players in that market. moderna could be the only. >> vaccine available. and i don't think. >> that they're. >> really hyping. >> it too much. >> at. >> this point. they are. >> you know, saying that they see this again for. >> seniors. >> maybe daycare workers. >> health workers. >> and i think that right now everyone's talking. >> about norovirus, but we don't typically talk. >> about it in a given season. so it's not. >> clear how widely. >> used it would be. and they're definitely. >> not playing it that. >> way, at. >> least at this point. >> and then when larry ellison was mentioning how ai would help a cancer vaccine, we saw moderna stock react to that. how far off is that? >> we're still. >> a. >> few years. >> away from that. >> remember, they are working with. >> merck on it. >> they're in late stage trials,

but we still need. >> a few. >> years, probably before. >> we can get those results. and it could reach the market. >> but. >> definitely one to keep. >> your eye on. >> all right, angelica, thank you, angelica peebles. and we ask all these questions because we want to know what the pipeline is like, because moderna's stock has just been terrible. >> until like three days ago. >> right? exactly. >> go back. they preannounced i think they pronounced on january 13th, stock went from 42 down to, i think 32. in a straight line. you've recaptured that. that's all you've done. nothing's changed. you didn't lose $9 a share this year. there's some excitement, i get it. i think it's going to be somewhat short lived. >> i think we have at least tried to caution that what seems like an enormous amount of cash on the balance sheet is going fast, and i think you have to be wary here, and it almost seems as if the market is not rewarding vaccines, even if they were making money. >> i mean. well, the problem is, as angelica said, the audience for this vaccine is sort of small. the cancer vaccine is years off. so it's like, okay, well, if you write off covid, you know, spike backs, what what is there right now in terms of what they can. >> yeah.

>> the hope. >> of covid being a cash cow for. >> years right. >> is not happening. >> thank goodness. we should. >> stop calling them. >> vaccines too. >> if it's just a drug that. >> makes. >> the thing less worse. yeah. >> it's not protection against i mean. >> what more do you know. >> about that? >> about that? >> up only the servicenow platform puts ai agents to work across your company. they deal with the small stuff that bogs you down. agents like secret agents? you know... i once played a secret agent. - oh... - oh i miss that one. i heard you were great. i was great. louis! cut! more mud! action! louis, louis! cut mud on her face! louis! okay everybody, that's lunch! (♪♪) (♪♪) mud mask? no, no, no! compare hotels in the hotels.com app

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>> oh. >> their day disappeared. too many emails, messages, docs. that's why i have grammarly. it's ai that helps me write faster and better everywhere. it just cleared it for the whole company. >> it was lost in the doc. >> grammarly for business enterprise ready i. >> despite the big gains for the banks this week, their stocks have quite a bit more upside because of those earnings explosions. all they did was make the price to earnings multiples lower than we think, much lower than the rest of the market. >> mad money next cnbc. >> final straight time tim. >> that was some conversation on the commercial break. anyway. phone home energy transfer partners has been phoning home for a long time. >> stay there. >> karen yes. >> i like dell. i do. >> still believe in the i trade. >> dan i really found it in today. >> did you? >> yeah. i didn't. >> speak for like three. >> segments, which is amazing. >> you didn't want to. i kept looking over. you want to come

in? i want to come in. >> tim's buying bank. >> two hands. you probably are to the cra really lags the regional banks. >> tim seymour will be at madison square garden tonight with his brother. >> so anybody care? in case anybody cares, tim is going. >> to be here. >> he loves hugs and kisses. >> right? i love. unexpected bristol-myers. >> thanks for watching. fast mad money starts now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise. >> to help. >> you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. >> welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica other my friends i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to explain how we can have such good days. so call me one 807 4360. tweet me jimcramer. the president of the united states is a living breathing talking lightning round giving you buys and