sector, just remember unitedhealthcare is almost 10% of the xlvi and it will benefit. >> all right, joe guidewire software staying away from those back seven names. you notice that. yeah that's true. >> you know my final trade is what jayden daniels. >> thank you. so. >> definitely i'll see you on the closing bell. >> thank you. >> washington commanders. >> thank you very. >> much, scott. and welcome. >> to the. exchange i'm kelly evans. and another record high today. >> for the. >> s&p 500. >> we'll have more on that. >> in. >> a moment as we hurtle into. >> five of. >> the mag. >> seven reporting. >> next week. our guest. >> is worried about one risk. >> to this. >> overall rally, not. >> those earnings. she'll tell us what it is and how. she's positioning. and trump wants the fed to lower rates. >> our economist, who's usually been hawkish, thinks he may. >> actually get his wish. >> he still sees three cuts this year and he makes his case ahead. >> and another. >> big upgrade for netflix. bernstein admits they're late to

the party. >> but says. >> you can be, too. the catalyst. and the questions the company. needs to. >> answer to. >> sustain its incredible growth. it's taking up 1% breather today. tom, over to you for the markets. >> all right. >> so let's start off with that record high that you point out it's in the broader s&p 500. and right now that s&p is at 6106. but as kelly points out earlier in the session we hit 6001 28. that is the new record intraday high. your new high watermark so to speak. but again 6107 right now that's down about 1112 points. this represents session lows for the stock market overall. at one point we were up a modest ten points. but still it represents a 2/10 of 1% loss for the s&p 500. the dow industrials down a similar percentage amount. that's 87 points to 44,477 on the blue chip index and the nasdaq composite. the tech heavier side of things lagging, but not by much. it's off about 4/10 of 1% to 19,983 for the composite. that's roughly 65 points to the downside there. two stocks in

particular are getting a lot of headlines this morning. i'll start with an underperformer in the world of pharma and biotechnology. and that's novo nordisk, the danish drug giant responsible for blockbuster weight loss drugs like wegovy and ozempic. those shares, remember, since the summer, have lost roughly nearly just about half their value. but today they're up 8% because one of their new weight loss candidate drugs had positive trial results. and that's resulting in a big move higher. but again, to put it in context, we've lost about 47% of novo's value just since its highs, the record ones that we saw in june. so keep an eye on novo nordisk up big and another one moving in the opposite direction. today is a name that we often talk about with semiconductors, but not so much like in the in the nvidia scope of things. but texas instruments is off 7%. it's down about $14. this is on the heels of better than expected earnings and profits revenues. everything is good. but the forecast came into question a little bit. it fell below some analysts expectations. and the reason why

much of that is due to automotive end market weakness in places like europe, the us and japan. that's the reason why analog chip companies alongside texas instruments are also lower. and kelly. some traders and investors do look towards companies like texas instruments as a general economic bellwether globally, because those analog chips are used in everything from cars to washing machines to guided missile systems. so keep an eye on txn. i'll send things back over. >> to. >> the doctor. copper indicator. >> i like. >> the way that one's. >> going, dom. >> thanks. >> president trump wants the. >> federal reserve to lower interest rates immediately. >> many experts disagree. ken rogoff saying a hike. >> is as. >> likely as a cut now. >> but. >> my next guest disagrees with that. >> says we. could still get three cuts this year. >> let's bring in stephen econo. >> along with our very own steve liesman kind of. keep us. >> apprized of. >> those rate. cut odds. >> mr. stanley, i'll. >> start with you. >> and is. >> this kind of. >> like. good rate.

>> cuts. >> because inflation is coming down or bad rate. cuts because of. >> a slowing economy? >> i think it's going to be. >> a little bit. >> of both. i think the labor market may weaken a little bit. and we certainly saw. >> last summer. >> that the fed. >> is very sensitive. >> to that. so. >> you know, that was a. >> big part. >> of the. >> story that led. >> up to. >> the. >> 50 basis. point cuts. >> that we cut that we saw. >> in september. so that's. >> part of the story. >> but i do. >> think. the inflation. >> situation is moving in the right direction. and that. >> will give the fed. >> a little. >> bit of freedom to move. >> as well. >> do you think that we should put. next week in play? it seems like almost nobody thinks we'd get a cut on the what is it, the 28th. >> no. >> they've, they've been very clear. >> that they. >> want to take a pause in january. this is all. >> part of. >> what has been termed a more cautious approach, which. >> you know, i think they'll they'll pause. >> in january and then from. there it'll be. >> data dependent. >> so if. >> i'm right about the. >> data being a little bit

weaker, then we. could see another cut. >> as soon as march. or if the data are. stronger then obviously. they'll wait longer. >> steve liesman. >> what are the odds of. >> a march rate cut here? >> well, actually. >> they're. >> up a little bit. kelly i'll give you the data here. it's i think it was around 72%, if i'm not mistaken. >> hold on a second. >> i have it right here. it went up. i need my glasses. darn it. i'm very. sorry about that. what we have is a sorry. >> it's 28% in march. it's 72. when you get to june. >> that's the. that's the month we've been watching. what's interesting to me, kelly. and i wonder what mr. stanley, as you correctly termed it, turned him. thinks about this. these numbers are up from from after president trump put a little. >> pressure on. >> the fed. and i don't know if the market is reacting to that. maybe it's a signal of where he thinks the fed ought to go, or the kind of chair he'd put in place, or, governor, he might nominate if there's an opening there. but i don't know. it seems like the market may have reacted yesterday to some of the jawboning from the president to

the fed. >> but still, let's call. >> it about a. >> 25% 1 in 4 chance, steven. >> stanley, that the market thinks that they. >> cut rates in march. >> why is your confidence. >> in the possibility of that so much higher. >> than what everyone. >> else is. >> kind of thinking here? >> yeah. >> i mean, you know, look, i don't want to press it too much, but i think for me it's that. >> i think. >> the data. >> is. >> going. >> to be a little softer. >> i think the. >> real economy. >> is going. >> to. >> be a little below 2% in the first. >> half of the year, and the labor market. >> maybe. >> softens a little further. >> and i think a lot of. >> that is. >> simply just people waiting and seeing as the administration formulates its policies. at one key point. >> that i've been making. >> is. >> that i think. >> it's going. >> to. >> take longer. >> for the new. >> administration to get its policies in place. >> than than the markets. >> seem to believe. >> and so. that means. >> that. >> the. >> economy is. >> kind of on hold, if you. >> will. >> for a longer. >> period of time. >> steve liesman i mean, it's kind of interesting because the

economy. >> in many ways can be real slow moving. like we talk about. >> monetary policy, it takes. >> a long time. >> to affect things. maybe that'll be true with fiscal here as well. >> so i don't know. >> i mean. >> for. for us to precipitously slow in the next couple of months, you think it has to be something baked in going back. >> several months? >> yeah. >> i think that's right. as you know, kelly, this economy when it comes to employment is one of, i guess, a little bit less hiring, but not a lot of layoffs. and that's something that's sustained the employment levels that we've had. we'll see. we'll get a big adjustment to the labor force come the data from january. it would take quite a bit. and i like stephen stanley's idea or approach to this in the sense that these things take the ones that matter, i think, take a long time to seep into the economy. the other thing that's interesting to me is perhaps some things happen earlier than others, and so it may not be a year or two until we understand all of the effects of what is coming our way. for example, you could imagine the president passing with the congress some renewed tax cuts. that would be

one thing take effect relatively easily and relatively quickly, and you might get some animal spirits going ahead of time. on the other hand, one of the big things that everybody's talking about is deregulation. we've talked, kelly about how difficult that can be. that could take more time to have an actual effect. so you could have this mistiming of different aspects of the trump of the trump agenda before we know and what that means, i think for the fed is why they're going to be cautious in january, why they're going to be cautious in march. they have to deal with the normal thing of balancing the employment and the inflation mandates. now they have to deal with the idea that there are dramatic fiscal policy changes coming, as well as jawboning for the president. >> and steve. >> stanley, finally, i mean, we did get some data this morning, and maybe it. kind of fits with what you're. >> warning about. >> consumer confidence slipped. >> a little bit. >> i think. this was. the final reading. the readings have been a little bit choppy. and we had. >> i. >> think the expectations had a

big pullback recently. and the other survey, what does that tell you? >> yeah. >> it's a. >> little surprising. i thought we'd get a little bit more of a honeymoon. period for. >> the for the. >> new administration that you're right the. >> confidence numbers. >> really haven't. >> been that great. they popped in november and then. they've they've come back down since then. so we'll. see how that plays out. >> the consumer has it's been a it's. >> been tough. >> sledding betting against the us consumer. i do think the consumer. >> may slow a little bit. >> going forward from here. >> but but i wouldn't. >> want to bet too hard against against the consumer. >> indeed. >> gentlemen the. >> steves will leave it there for now. appreciate it. today, stephen stanley and our very own steve liesman. we've got some news on target. let's see. the company is rolling back its dei initiatives. this comes after some of president trump's executive orders this week called those programs illegal and discriminatory. and trump addressed that at davos yesterday. >> my administration has taken action to abolish all discriminatory. diversity equity and inclusion nonsense. and these are policies that were absolute nonsense throughout the

government and the private sector. >> target is telling cnbc. com's melissa repko that these plans predated the election. now it's just the latest company to pull back on dei. it joins the likes of walmart, john deere, tractor supply, ford and harley davidson. costco, by the way, has been a notable exception to that. i believe they have a shareholder vote on the issue today. power lunch will take a deeper dive into these moves with john hope bryant, ceo of operation hope, and former senator heidi heitkamp, along with melissa repko, who will join us for more on these developments next hour. meantime, week one of the trump administration wasn't so bad. >> for the. >> markets. but my next guest says, now comes. >> the hard part. >> she calls herself bullish with a but clarify, victoria, what you mean by that? let's bring in cnbc contributor victoria greene, also the cio at g squared private wealth. >> welcome and elaborate on this. >> so the one thing we fear is an error either fiscal or monetary policy. that is the

tried and. >> true. >> way to. >> kill off a bull market. so we are absolutely bullish. but you have to realize. >> there are a lot. >> of levers being pulled very, very quickly in the government right now. and some of those effects are going to have a lag. so we are just a little bit wary of how that's going to then affect what the fed's going to do, and vice versa, because you're seeing a lot of change very, very quickly, which can be a little unsettling to the markets. you know, ceos are getting a bit of whiplash trying to keep up with where they need to be right now. so for us bullish, we're really happy. we're in earnings season. we're back to fundamentals. it's all about earnings and earnings growth. and it's been great. next week really is the heart of it because on wednesday we get the three of the seven reporting. and those are going to be huge with meta and microsoft and tesla. so we've added about what almost four and a half 5% the last two weeks. i see that trend continuing. but we've got to have those three deliver on wednesday. absolutely. >> yeah. and to be clear, you're not worried. >> that that's going to trip up the market. and i'm with you by the. >> way netflix needs to go back. >> in the mag seven. >> and we can call it the elite eight. >> that's a great term.

>> yeah i like elite eight the great. >> eight, but it outperformed everybody except nvidia last year. and i don't know why more people aren't talking about this company. i've loved it for two years and they smashed expectations. but it's not just about ads. it's about continuing to add 19 million subscribers. it's about continuing to delve into live sporting events. and they've talked about they're not trying to replicate live tv. they want special events. they want playoff games or christmas day games. they don't want to be your everyday tv. they want you to come to netflix because they have the best content. and the one thing i love as an investor is their margins continue to improve. they're controlling their content costs, and they still have some of the top ranked shows like squid games to one of the best releases they ever have. and you haven't watched season two of the diplomat. it's fantastic. >> we're going to talk. >> even more about this later on, because it's really one of the biggest stories of. >> the market so. >> far this year. >> but let's go. >> back to politics in a way. next week gives us a reprieve from just following those political developments, because we're reminded of the incredible earnings power of some of these companies. but we are now getting into the harder work where. >> we have the debt, you know. >> debt ceiling that we've already hit a government. shutdown coming in march, feb

one could be. >> a canada. >> mexico tariff issue. the tiktok thing is still up in the air. and a lot of these are political battles that we're going to get different kinds of headlines on, and ultimately, figuring out the bills that are going to pass is going to be very complex. >> hugely complex. and our big thing is take a deep breath and step back, because news has been flowing fast and furious this first week. i think he set a record for executive orders written. and for us, number one is congress is going to have to get to work. we did not solve any systemic problems in november. we still have the debt ceiling. we still have a massive deficit. we still have spending problems. you know, some of the things he talked about with like, oh, we're going to have this infrastructure initiative, okay, how are we going to pay for that? and so some of this hard work begins again of how do we find this balance. we all are expecting tax cuts. that's got to be a priority for this administration. lower regulations do seem to be coming. you know some of this stuff though it's funny because there's so many catalysts. but look at the energy sector on one hand. wow. love lower regulation lng exporting and permitting opening back up. but on the flip side, oh hey saudi arabia, please pump more oil and lower oil prices, which isn't

necessarily great for us energy companies to have lower realized oil prices. so it's not all going to be bullish. there's going to be push pull of catalysts and risk. and i also just say take a step back. there is a limit to executive orders. and we're going to have to see congress actually come into govern with a very thin margin, which has proved extremely difficult to do. >> right. no. >> the fact that you highlight energy, this is one of those where you go, okay, we might be supportive of more production, but is that supportive of the share price. and how about this venture global ipo today? honestly victoria, if you told me we're going to have an lng boom in this country, become the world's number one exporter in a period of just a couple of years, you know, be reshaping what could happen in europe and the russia-ukraine war. and now here comes an lng ipo into this fantastic market at all time highs. i would have told you, hey, that sounds like a good pop. >> why not? what happened? >> why is this not emblematic of these themes in this market? >> i think there's a limit. i think a lot of it is okay, let's wait and see how much you can actually do for us on earnings wise and export wise. it's a

it's a pure play and it should have had more interest. it possibly was a little bit overpriced. they maybe reached a little bit far on on the animal spirits when they ie me back it was it was a little bit of a rude awakening that it's not you got to actually execute and actually make some money and profitability. it's not just about all this future growth and some of these projects being discussed. it's not coming online this year. you're talking about 27, 2028 and 2029. and some of this stuff is a long way. so there is a limit to how far these prices can go up with with what they're producing right now. >> so you're sticking with netflix. you like meta here. do you see any execution risk? i mean, there's more and more media attention on what they might be moderating in terms of content or what bad stuff might now be getting through, you know, is that all going to become a headline risk for the stock? >> i think he's trying to avoid that by going with where where the prevailing winds are blowing right now. and that is likely good for shareholders and what i think. fascinating. right. hey, we're going to spend 60 to 65 million in capex. last time they

increased the capex budget, their stock got absolutely hammered and punished because investors were like, whoa, don't spend money. and suddenly now you're getting a pop to all time highs because he said, i want to spend more money and build a data center the size of manhattan. right. and investors are loving it. and so for me, it just shows their commitment to investing in ai. i think they're utilizing ai the best because of their targeted ads. it's actually driving revenue. and one of the only firms utilizing ai to increase their revenue, and not just potential future increases. and especially with the tiktok thing up for grabs, i think they are continuing to have ads come back. they are going to have to be careful on the content moderation, because ads got a little bit risky on x or twitter about, hey, what do we want our advertisements to be associated with? so this is a fine line for them to walk on content. absolutely. >> but as they. >> execute to your point, now they're rolling those ads out on threads and perhaps going to take more investment advantage of the technology that they have. victoria, for now, thanks. always appreciate it. >> victoria green. >> g squared private wealth

coming up. >> the banks are. >> shaping up to be the new political football after president trump called out two of the biggest ones on the world stage yesterday comes as the senate banking committee plans a hearing on the banking issue. we'll look at the fallout with a number of bank stocks at or near record highs. plus, could the president's tariff threat end up helping china with the post-inauguration attention shifting to canada and mexico? we'll look at the white house's strategy on that and what it could mean for the trade deficit. the exchange is back after this. after this. >> this is the. exchange on (♪♪) the booking app i used didn't have agentforce. so an ai agent didn't know to move my reservations inside... ...or know what i like to eat, which is not that. what's up, my brother? oh, hey, bud! we really needed this rain. right? [car splashing rain water] agentforce helps restaurants prevent dining disasters. paddle on over!

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and ask about the bosley guarantee. >> welcome back. >> president trump. >> kicking off a firestorm around debanking after he made the following comment to brian moynihan, the bank of america ceo over at davos. here's what trump had to say. >> by the way, speaking of you. and you've done a fantastic job, but i hope you start opening your bank to conservatives, because many conservatives complain that the banks are not allowing them to do business within the bank. and that included a place called bank of america, this conservative. they don't take conservative business. and i don't know if the regulators mandated that because of biden or what, but you and jamie and everybody, i hope you're going to open your banks to conservatives because what you're doing is wrong. >> you can think gun manufacturers and. >> that fossil fuel producers, even some crypto companies. bank of america responded that it has no political litmus test. jp morgan also weighed in, saying they want to work on, quote,

ways to remove regulatory ambiguity while maintaining our country's ability to act to address financial crime. now, this comes as the senate banking committee is reportedly preparing for a hearing on banking in the coming weeks, according to politico. aaron klein, a senior fellow at brookings. and here, with a look at what those reforms could look like and who really stands to benefit moody's anosov is also with me to talk about how overregulation from the banks themselves and from regulators has reshaped private credit. welcome to both of you. aaron, let's start with you. what's at stake here? >> well. >> look, i. >> think targeting banking would be a good thing if trump is being open and honest about the number one reason why people don't have bank accounts, which are the fees are too high. look, there have been real problems as it relates to high minimum balances and overdrafts and other issues. and so i think if you have an open and honest hearing about what's driving the banking, you'll come to realize that there's some anti-money laundering rules, some identity, and frankly, some costs of basic banking that are too high. >> the cost issue to me seems a little bit different, although i take your point. but on the

anti-money they always talk about this acronyms aml, kyc, know your customer. is that where these efforts to kind of promote non shady activity are crossing over into making banks reticent to go into areas that they think might be politically sketchy? >> yeah. >> look the current aml regime is totally nonsensical. i mean, you can look at the shohei ohtani case and his interpreter wiring $200,000 to a bookie and calling it a car loan. the current system drives high costs to banks and drives entire industries out. trump said things about conservative industries. he didn't talk about cannabis, a state licensed cannabis which has been driven out of the banking sector by some of these concerns and regimes. and so there's a lot there that could be done to modernize it. that would be a win win for both business and low income people, many of whom are subject to expensive reporting requirements that make banks make it uneconomical for banks to serve those types of clients. >> aaron, it seems to me that

depending on who's in office, this could go one of two different ways, either in the way of pulling back, making banking more private and looking over their shoulder less, or which might happen under this administration or in the other direction. it could go to the sort of greater transparency, more reporting. we want to know more. we want to know almost every transaction, you know, and that that could be on the table at some point in the future. which of those two ways do you think is appropriate? >> well. >> look, i. >> think we're currently on an autopilot regime of more reporting. the $10,000 limit for currency transaction reports was set in law in the late 60s, when you could buy a brand new, fully loaded cadillac in cash and not pay, not trigger that. in fact, you could buy two today. you can't buy a new car in cash and not trigger this. if you index that number to inflation, like most economists like to index numbers, that number would be 50, 60, $70,000 today. and so the current regime is on an autopilot of generating more and more of these suspicious

activity reports. the first trump administration took an absolute dirt nap in addressing this issue. and so, you know, this would be a big change from how trump behaved in the past, which was a tremendous amount of deference to the status quo. so it's interesting to me that now he's managing to target these issues, which i think is being driven more by crypto being in his ear than by having, you know, appreciated the pros and cons about what it is that he's really talking about. >> and real quickly, do you think that, you know, maybe cryptos. do they go and kind of relax industry by industry, or do you think that they could do a wholesale change to some of these rules about knowing your customer? >> yeah. so i think it would be a massive mistake to go industry by industry. and look, when he talks about conservatives is when i get really concerned. look, deep banking is going on by the state of west virginia and the state of texas, who are drumming banks out of their state because they don't like some of what the banks are doing in terms of environmental rules and, and bank decisions about this. so when he talks about

deep banking and then pivots to conservatives, there's a bit of an unstated question that he's trying to drum out one group and drum in another. i think what's much better policy is to have policy across the board applying to everybody equally, regardless of what type of business you're doing. >> yeah, it would be a big deal if they started to roll some of that back, but i guess anything could be on the table. aaron. thanks. appreciate it. aaron klein at brookings, on the ask of us here on set with me to look on at the growth of private credit, which has happened in conjunction with more and more of these oversight laws about traditional banks. do you think that's played a role? >> correct. >> and i just want. to reflect on the prior discussion. look, we the banks. >> have to play on. >> a rule book. >> they are. regulated institutions. so they had. humongous hundreds of billion dollars of fees they had to pay post the financial crisis. and they are very conscious of. making sure that they comply with the. >> rules, are. >> not. >> inventing the rules. >> so simplification of rules will be very. >> good for the. >> banking system. and we say the same thing. >> also. >> to close. >> some arbitrage.

>> that potentially exists in the financial world. >> how big is the traditional banking system compared with this newer kind of private credit system, which again, is not so much consumer oriented. this is more about providing loans to some of these. exactly. yeah. >> look. >> we're talking about. >> 27 trillion. >> of. >> assets for the us banking system. versus what we think outstanding in a in a narrower, more commercial lending, a direct lending is around 2 trillion. in the us. if you want to include a couple of other specialty. finance classes, maybe you're going to get to 5 trillion. this different banking system. >> that's the shadow banking. shadow banking. >> exactly in the us. so and it's all part. of this. >> specialty financing alternatives alternative. >> is an asset class. we're talking. >> about 11 trillion. so you have to kind of step back okay. what are the. drivers first and foremost. >> yes the. >> banks were quite limited to service leveraged as consumers both post dodd-frank but also levered corporations. there were specific occ rules that were designated in 2013 that basically prohibited banks to lend to these customers. >> so basically, the rise of private credit, you think in many ways goes back to the clampdown on the banks after the financial crisis.

>> absolutely. >> and. >> you know, this is we're talking about exponential growth. this is not 10 or 20%. this is multiplications of where alternative assets were and alternative credit was. so now is this going to continue is the question. and we do think we just published our outlook for private credit for 2025. and thank you for having me to discuss this. of course, we think that this growth is going to continue and for several reasons. first and foremost, we think that the economic environment will be conducive for growth. and in that kind of environment, both banks and non-banks will benefit. on the non-bank side, we are, you know, still having $1 trillion of private equity dry powder and around 300 billion. that's due more than three years. this has to be deployed. right. so if you look at the m&a that started last year, it was really more in the strategic corporates. the private equity has not engaged because the cost of capital was. >> still high high. >> so obviously we've got some rate cuts. we think in canada probably 50 basis points next year. that's going to help with obviously financing these highly leveraged transactions. so now if you look at the total leveraged finance market historically these large deals

were not done by the private credit lenders. now we're actually seeing on a total dollar volume, it increased roughly 20% of market share. really. yes. and we think that can reach up to 25% market share. why they just give more flexible terms. >> so isn't that nice. >> so we have flexible terms. you can basically negotiate bilaterally versus a standardized public market trades. so that's one driver second one. and you and i talked about this actually last year around regionalization. we are on $40 trillion of put it retirement money roughly. alternatives are estimated to be around 1 trillion for retail investors. so that is expected to continue to grow. and at different forms like etfs, pdcs that are for retail investors interval funds. so that's another. and then the big opportunity as some of the folks from apollo would say, the 40 trillion opportunity is really asset backed finance. >> well all i know is if i guess then in some ways maybe you could call it a quote unquote risk to private credit, because there's not many to see at this point until we hit a default cycle. or if it's really jack

up, i guess it would be if rules on the banking system got a little more lenient, and they could go from feeling like they're on the sidelines, you know, with their handcuffed to being able to and whether or not that's good for, you. >> know, for systemic. look we've been we've been calling that this growth is great from a perspective of providing more liquidity and growth for the economy. and of course, in a in a default cycle, having liquidity for both sides, public and private is helpful. however, disclosures are an issue. so i think that we are hoping that, you know, there will be increased disclosures both not only on the banking side, is actually starting starting this january, banks will have to break down their lines in more detail for exposure to non-bank financial. so that's already coming. interesting. but you know, there is more work to be done on insurance industry in that sense. so that's where also a lot of these investments end up. so not only banks who finance private credit, but also the key investors like pension funds insurance companies have to. >> follow standing behind them. fascinating. ana, thanks, as always for joining us. break it down on our sub. with moody's ratings still to come, a deep dive into the chinese ai lab. deep seac. you've been hearing

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agents arresting. >> 538 people yesterday that the trump administration ramping up immigration enforcement efforts. an official confirming nbc. >> news the. >> arrest took place in cities like chicago, san francisco and buffalo. white house says of the arrests made, more than 350 were for criminal offenses. president trump has stripped doctor anthony fauci of his government security detail. it comes after the president also canceled security protection. for former secretary of state mike pompeo and. former national security adviser john bolton. both of whom face threats from iran. a source telling nbc news fauci has hired his own security. and president trump has stopped energy department spending and loans, according to bloomberg. the memo from the agency's acting secretary keeping the department from awarding grants and publishing studies unless the acting secretary approves them, the memo adds. it is part of a comprehensive review to ensure the agency is aligned with the president's interests, which include rolling back

spending on things like climate friendly policies. all right, kelly. coming up on power lunch target becoming the latest big company to back away from its dei initiatives. we'll talk about all of it. what's happening in corporate america with a panel of experts. but that's in 27 minutes. i'll see you then. >> the clock is ticking, brian. thanks. just as america is throwing its weight behind the $100 billion stargate project could grow 500 billion. one of the breakouts in the ai field is a chinese firm called deep seek. it's exploded into the mainstream, stunning silicon valley with the low cost and excellent quality of its models even capturing all the attention at davos this week. deirdre bosa has spent the past month diving deep into the little known lab. here's what she found. >> china's latest. >> ai. >> breakthrough has leapfrogged. >> the world. >> i think. >> we should take the development out of china very, very seriously. >> a game. >> changing move. that does not come from. >> openai. >> google or meta. >> there is a new model that has all of the valley buzzing.

>> but from a chinese. >> lab called. >> deep sea. >> it's opened a. >> lot of. >> eyes of like what. >> is actually. >> happening in. ai in china. >> what took google. >> and openai. >> years and hundreds. of millions of dollars to build? deep sea says, took. it just two. >> months and. >> less than $6 million. >> they have. >> the best open source model, and all the american developers are building on that. >> i'm deirdre bosa with the tech check. take china's. >> ai breakthrough. >> that full piece is about 15 minutes long, and it features interviews with perplexity ceo arvind srinivas and benchmark. partner jason pregunta. you can find it on youtube or cnbc. dot com slash tech takes now. we started making it just after deep six christmas day drop. fast forward a few weeks and it's raising questions over the sustainability of closed source business models like open ai. it's raising questions over the

billions of dollars in capex earmarked for this year. like the target meta just put out this morning. and kelly, as you pointed out, project stargate itself, why are we spending potentially hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure if a chinese lab, by the way, it's not just deep sea bytedance two we talked about yesterday are telling us that you can do more with less. this is perfectly timed, deirdre. appreciate you taking all the time and work on this. and i encourage everyone. i will certainly be checking it out. deirdre bosa appreciate it for techcheck today. sticking with china for all the president's tough talk, could his policies end up helping beijing? one china watcher says the growing emphasis on canada and mexico is helping beijing fly under the radar. we have the details and the impact it could have on our economy and our trade deficit next. >> techcheck is sponsored by comcast business. powering possibilities. nothing stands still. not technology, not the

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impose 25% tariffs on canada and mexico and another 10% tariff on goods from china, potentially starting feb one. but my next guest says these tariffs could backfire and actually help china if trump doesn't address what's really causing the trade deficit. joining me now is derek scissors, asia economist at the american enterprise institute. i could literally spend 45 minutes on this, derek. so i appreciate it. we'll try to keep it kind of top level. the tone shift with china vis a vis mexico is very interesting. what do you make of it? >> i think it's very, very risky. i understand why you look at. mexico with. >> immigration problems, for. >> one. >> thing, and you say, hey. >> we have problems. >> on the mexican border. i'd like to. trump has said he'd like to renegotiate parts of usmca, which he signed. >> that's also legitimate. >> but mexico. >> is the. >> biggest trade. >> rival of china. >> in the us market. >> if you. >> put tariffs. >> on mexico. >> that are much heavier than the tariffs you're adding. >> on china. >> you automatically get. more chinese. >> goods here, more. dependance of the us.

>> on china. and i don't think the president understands that. >> so let's say i were an american who was concerned our manufacturing sector has been hollowed out. i think china's been an unfair player. you know, we're overconsuming cheap chinese goods and so forth. do i look at all this and go, he's got a plan. i don't know what it is, but there's a plan. or do i look at this and go, oh, suddenly mexico is the biggest problem. and he's, you know, inviting xi jinping to inauguration, right. like, is this three dimensional chess here? >> it doesn't. >> seem like it is. i hope it is. that would be great. but it doesn't seem like it. is when. >> you throw. >> canada in there, for example. that doesn't make any sense at all. canada is not a source of fentanyl. it is not a source of illegal migrants. and on any scale. >> this just. >> looks. >> like lashing. >> out at. >> a new. >> target. >> as if he's tired of lashing out at china. >> but mexico. >> and canada's. >> trade deficits. >> combined are $60 billion less than china's trade deficit alone. >> so it. >> seems like the president has

lost his trade deficit target. and the fentanyl case is even worse. if the chinese think that, oh, if we send fentanyl to mexico and mexico sends it to the us, and the americans punish mexico more than us, and we gain from that, their incentives are to provide more fentanyl. so neither on the economic side nor the fentanyl side that the president has talked about. is this a good idea? >> some comparisons have been drawn to the first administration, where he also had a big reception, went to beijing, met with xi jinping, you know, and so forth. and then things were kind of kumbaya for a little while and then went south, went sour. i'm not sure exactly what was going on behind the scenes there, but could this be a similar pattern that is about to play out this time around? >> it could be, but i. >> was. >> actually involved. >> in the first round of trump tariffs in 2017 and into. >> a. >> little bit of 2018. and a. >> key difference. >> then is. >> that there was a strategy from the beginning that was in

the campaign. it was in the transition. it had a leader who was robert lighthizer. guiding that strategy through. >> we don't see. >> any of that now. he president trump during the transition did not emphasize china. we don't have an experienced trade person at the helm. so if there's going to be a turn towards china, which is where trade attention belongs, it's going to take a long time. and i don't see the start of it yet. what we see instead is a focus on usmca, which i said is an agreement that trump signed. >> so here's the thing i don't understand, though. one of the biggest headlines from his entire campaign was the 60% tariff on china. literally. it's probably one of the most well-known data points we've done, reporting about how chinese manufacturers are concerned. it could actually happen, what people on wall street, even if it's not 60%, why would he campaign on that? have it be just some degree of why he got elected and then suddenly go quiet on it? >> that is a very good question. and of course, i don't know the president's mind. i do think that republicans felt not only i

think i know republicans felt vulnerable on china issues because they had struggled to get things through the congress, because president trump did not retaliate against china in 2020, over over their behavior with covid. whether you think that was a good idea or not, they felt vulnerable on china issues. and i think part of the campaign promises were to address that. i'm going to be tougher on china than biden, than anyone else. but now we get, you know, when push comes to shove and suddenly he says things like, i'd rather not put tariffs on china. >> so do you think some. >> of his. >> drive here is really more about nafta and readdressing some of those issues than it is about china and a bigger philosophical way? >> apparently it is. that doesn't make any sense to me. it made perfect sense to do what they did in the first term, which is update nafta. nafta was an old aging agreement. they updated it on a bipartisan basis. president trump liked it. he signed it. there's a review in 2026. if you want to bring the review forward and say, hey,

we need to change autos around, fine. but that should be a sideshow because you already improved the situation. you didn't improve the china situation, as represented by campaign promises to raise tariffs to 60%. and yet somehow he's gotten distracted. and you know, i hesitate to say this, but a difference between this time and last time is robert lighthizer is out and elon musk is in. >> and you think maybe that has this was an unexpected discussion for me. but the last couple of weeks have been sort of surprising. the markets noticed it. a lot of people in china, there's articles in the wall street journal about this today. cnbc has a write up as well. so i appreciate you diving in on the topic and we'll revisit it. derek, thanks for your time. thank you. derek. scissors with aei coming up, shares of iridium communications are higher today. cantor initiating coverage of the satellite company along with other space related names like planetlab and redwire with an overweight rating after red wires. big week. cantor writing. iridium is best positioned for a rally thanks to its cash flow stability. product offerings. on

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>> talking to. >> sources. >> and doing my own. >> reporting to. >> share insights, information. >> and all. >> of the details. >> that you. need to be able. >> to make money. >> welcome back to the exchange. we rocketed above 6100 today for the s&p. i'm going to do a little dom here 6128. that was your new record intraday high. that said we've since pulled back and kind of turned lower on the session by a quarter percent. half a percent for the nasdaq fractionally for the russell's 463 for the ten year. and let's get a check on that ipo of the day i mentioned it earlier. venture global. look if there's an lng boom who wouldn't want an lng ipo. but we're down half a percent. this is the largest ipo by an oil and gas company in a decade, and the fourth largest since the turn of the century. it's a natural gas exporter, opened below its ipo price, still raising about $2 billion and makes it about a $60 billion market cap company. so it's big. it's hefty. it's the 10th largest publicly traded energy company in fact. speaking

of which on the flip side, new energy name for solar is now trading at its lowest level since last april, and it's on track to snap a four week win streak after president trump announced plans to end certain renewable energy incentives. the shares are down more than 12% this week. it's really the main u.s. domestic manufacturer for solar. coming up, netflix shares are lower today, but they're up 13% this week after that monster earnings report still making waves. and with the end of it reporting subscriber numbers, how should investors gauge its business going forward? mountains. mark douglas has a mountains. mark douglas has a few it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪

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let me try it. add recipes with overripe bananas to my “dessert ideas” note. that's what you chose to ask it? i had other things planned. ask how to get up to one thousand dollars off the new samsung galaxy s25 ultra with xfinity mobile. to use every day. >> welcome back to the exchange. netflix's blowout numbers earlier this week have the bullish calls still rolling in. and that was tuesday night. bernstein is the latest upgrading them to outperform, hiking the price target to 1200, saying they believe another year of double digit subscriber growth is achievable. but that target looks downright conservative compared with rosenblatt's barton crockett. we talked about this yesterday. his price target is almost 1500 now, and this week's report was the last one in which netflix will disclose subscriber count. or they say they'll do it when they hit major milestones, which might be every quarter at this point. so what are the new metrics to watch. can they keep growing. joining me now is martin ceo mark douglas. because

mark, you were an early i guess. would you say client you have relationship with netflix. maybe you can give us some perspective here on how how do they do it. how are they going to keep doing it? >> yeah. well, i think when. >> i think of netflix. >> what i think. >> of is. >> they. >> have three. >> big advantages. so one. >> is they're the first place. most consumers. >> go to when they want. >> to watch tv, period. and that's. why they're able to take like a jake paul fight and mike tyson fight and turn it into super bowl level numbers is because everyone. is going there to decide what they want to watch. and if. >> that's what's on. >> that's what they're going to watch. and then they also have like this. they have they're so profitable. now and they can create more. content and more content drives new subscribers. this is the last thing i think is what's most important. those new subscribers, more than. >> half of them are signing. >> up for. >> ad supported services. >> and that is barely monetized. so it's the same way. >> they had like. >> this password backlog of revenue. they're building this

advertising backlog of revenue. and i think their stock is just going to keep soaring. for literally. >> there are over a $400 billion market cap. they're going to spend 18 billion. i think the number is on content next year. and paramount's entire market cap is now $9 billion. so if you look at paramount, if you look at wbd, if you look, i mean, the biggest of the traditional media companies are disney and comcast, obviously, but for the smaller ones, for the smaller streaming players, how do they achieve scale size up and try to now make inroads against this juggernaut? >> well, i think they're just going to have to be consolidation. it's going to be the way they achieve. it's not so much scale. it's achieving a very unique audience, having content that people like. they just. >> know why. >> they want to go to you and watch your content. and we've talked about this in the past. i mean, a lot of that is owned by like, disney, espn sports, you know, that. >> kind of association. >> but you have to be unique to survive. >> if you're not. >> unique, you're going to get

acquired. >> yes. >> that's absolutely going to happen. >> and disney is certainly unique there about, you know, almost a $200 billion market cap i think, you know i don't know if they have any interest in rolling up the rest of the traditional media space. right. >> i think that i think. >> disney, you know, netflix looks like. >> they're like. >> they're not. >> just looks. >> i think they're going to soar for years. >> i think. >> the stock seems expensive. >> but i actually think given their growth potential. >> it's not expensive. >> i think disney is putting their foot to the pedal right now and they are coming on strong. they have huge advantages. >> in. >> live sports. they're really good. at it. and i think this is the year of live sports. >> and streaming. >> like that is. >> the one. >> two and three topic. when you talk to these streaming networks, what they want to talk about is live sports over streaming. so disney's going to be another stock that me personally i'd. >> be buying right now. >> you would you'd be buying disney, as you said a little cautious on the netflix valuation. but to bernstein's point they said if someone had put a $1,000 price target on netflix a year ago, people would have laughed at them. you know,

the most bullish estimate for 2024 and 2025 was nowhere near enough to justify that. and netflix met and exceeded that, which is just remarkable. so sports now they're just starting to get into. yes, sports rights are more expensive, but this looks like the direction this is all going. they're going to be able to afford it. or maybe it's amazon. look they had 4% share last month. youtube had a record high 11%. those are couple trillion dollar market cap companies that can afford those sports rights. >> yeah. >> also remember with netflix this is how it goes back to that first thing, because they're the first place. >> you. >> go to watch television. for most consumers, you can turn something like wwe into a big sport. you don't have to go to the nba. you don't necessarily have to go to the nfl. so i think they're taking a smart strategy of kind of, you know, dabbling, dabbling. in nfl, but then finding. >> things people traditionally wouldn't have watched. >> but. >> making them stars. >> little by little. poco a poco. mark, thanks. appreciate

it as always. big week for netflix. mark douglas of mountain i don't know why i always say martin, thanks for watching the exchange. join brian sullivan for power lunch right after this quick break. >> nothing stands still. >> not technology. >> not the market, and not. >> franklin templeton. we've been a. >> firm in motion. >> for over. 75 years. >> always innovating. today, we're a leader in public and private markets, digital assets and custom tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build. >> the portfolios of. >> the portfolios of. >> the future today. [birds chirping] [dog growls] ♪♪ ♪ who knows what tomorrow ♪ ♪ will bring ♪ [dog barking] ♪ maybe sunshine, ♪ [dog whining] ♪ and maybe rain ♪ ♪ but as for me ♪

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