>> much josh brown. >> same uber 69. nice. >> all right. awesome guys. thank you steve wise. >> taiwan semi for the reasons i said before okay. >> and joe t. >> broadridge financial ticker symbol br. >> all right. >> well we'll see how this day develops i'll see you. >> on closing. bell exchanges now. >> thank you very much scott. and welcome. >> i'm kelly evans. >> here's what's coming up. if you thought nvidia shares might be overreacting. >> to. >> the deep tech. >> news this morning, well, they're. >> still sinking down. >> 16%. now after the chinese. >> ai app has been the talk of the weekend. >> vc bradley. >> tusk says deep tech is. >> so much cheaper, it will be hard. >> to tell the. >> startups not to use it. he joins. network almost down 17% now. he joins us ahead. >> to explain. >> and there's also another layer to the story now with deep. >> sea getting. >> hacked today. >> cyber stocks are. >> rising on that development. our expert is back to talk about what. happened and how the u.s. >> actually helped. >> the deep sea get so good so

quickly. meantime, some good news on the housing front. new home sales, better than expected rents are coming down that matters to cpi and pce and to the fed. could we actually get a rate cut this wednesday? odds are small, but we'll ask will debate. before all that, let's get over to dom chu with the very latest on this selloff. >> dom. so the. >> sell off is. >> in play right now. >> but it has. >> shifted because we are not down across the major indices wholesale anymore. we're actually mixed in action. i'm going to start with the epicenter because as kelly points out, that artificial intelligence trade and deep seek and everything else is putting the nasdaq composite, the tech, heavier side, front and center. i'll give you the numbers. right now we're at 19,249. we're down 704 points. that's down 3.5% at the lows of the session we were down 720. so we are just about near the lows of the day so far. even at the highs we were down 440 for the composite index. that gives you an idea of how severe the range has been so far

today. the s&p 500 still reliant on tech, but less so than the nasdaq trade. we're down about 2% there 119 points to the downside 5981 is your trade for the s&p and the dow industrials less reliant on that tech trade on a relative basis. they're actually up about 52 points. we're up about one tenth of 1% here to 44,479. more on that tech story in just a moment. it's not though, all a sea of red outside the dow industrials. check out what's happening. as kelly alluded to with the homebuilders better than expected new home sales data out. and by the way, this kind of flight to safety that we're feeling right now has pushed treasury yields lower, which could then lead to perhaps lower mortgage rates at some point down the line hypothetically. so kb home, d.r. horton, lennar masco on the home product side of things also lowe's on the home retail side all up in trade and kb home is up about 5%. so keep an eye on the homebuilders relative strength and outright strength in this down tape. and then that deep sea trade here is where it's playing out. the chip

stocks are front and center nvidia as kelly points out is down 17%. broadcom is down almost 19%. supermicro which makes high end servers down 14%. but vistra corp. and constellation energy interesting there. these were the big scale utility players power generators that rose up. because of all that i demand for power. they got bid up huge over the course of the last year or so, and they're falling, by some measures, the most 29% downside for vistra constellation energy down about 19 to 20%. so it is very much a deflation of that trade. we'll see if it lasts though. kelly. that's the big question for a lot of traders have. i'll send things back over. >> to you. these are huge moves don. we'll pick it up. thank you very much. dom chu. let's dive in here to the real significance of china's low. cost ai model. this deep sea r one is the sell off across those names he mentioned. deserved. raymond james tavis mccourt is here to look at that for us today. vc bradley tusk on why it's going to be hard not to use deep sea cybersecurity ceo. >> ivan sarine is back to talk about the hack and how deep sea

got so good so quickly. and deirdre bosa, who is all over this story before everyone else. welcome to all of you, bradley. >> i just thought it. >> was interesting what you said about people using this model. by the way, i tried i tried. finally to download it this morning and couldn't. maybe that's because of the hack, but what's your experience been and what do you think? you know, the take up ultimately will be here in the us of this chinese offering. >> yeah. >> i mean, look, as an early. >> stage venture. >> investor. >> there's no such. >> thing as investing in a. >> company that. >> isn't either. >> an ai. >> company or. >> using ai in some way. >> or. at least. >> has an. >> extremely good reason if they're not. but if they're using. >> ai in. >> some way, then the cost obviously becomes very material and really important. >> and using. >> open ai or any of these other companies is really, really expensive. and yes, i understand the deep sea because the chinese company. but if any of my portfolio companies said, listen. we can build what we need at a fraction of the cost on an open source system. it's really hard as a fiduciary to tell them, no, you shouldn't do that. and so i think the problem

isn't just that we have potentially a regulatory or trade problem. and the problem is we got outinnovated every sort of groupthink in the us, where all of the companies approach this thing in the exact same way, and it really was all about sort of scale and. >> cost. >> and, you know, like, alex, maximum scale. i made some really good points about this, which is we should be a lot more aggressive on innovation. >> we've kind. >> of lost the innovation war on this. and we should ask, you know, why is it that no. one in america. thought to do this? >> well, i think people would probably say, hey, we're working on it. like, that's the next phase of. >> all. >> of this. and there's a whole shift in here from kind of training to inferencing, which is an important part of the story and makes it interesting that broadcom is down. but before we get or maybe i should. >> turn. >> to tavis to talk more about that. we saw 15 to 20% declines in some of these exposed names. do you think that's warranted, given what we've learned here about what deep seeks new model can do? or do you think this is overdone? >> well, if. >> it's just deep sea. >> probably not. but i think the reality is what we're. seeing is capitalism at. work.

>> and nobody knows exactly how ai is going to play out. >> but there's a lot of money. >> that has gone into this space. >> and what that means is there. >> will be a lot of. >> innovation. and some of that innovation. >> isn't necessarily going to be great for profits. >> of. certain companies. >> and so, you know, when i when. >> i see some of these names. >> down 15 to. >> 20%, it just screams. >> to me that there's very little conviction out there. >> so even though these names have been. >> straight up for the last two years, people are buying charts, not businesses. >> and that's always a dangerous situation. >> that said, it's not like they're selling indiscriminately. meta's hired today. apple's hire. both of them are beneficiaries of lower cost inferencing models. right. they are the ones who are kind of deploying this technology. if it's less expensive to make it, even if china got there first, we're going to get there eventually as well. so there is a logic, tavis, to what the market is doing here. >> yeah, i would agree with that. i think in. >> general. >> if you had to place a bet, is the is the real profit pool going to be on chips or models or applications that use those models? like today we're

shifting. >> over towards the application front. >> if i can be a lot cheaper. >> to deploy. >> than then than most would have thought a couple of months. >> ago. >> that makes all the sense in the world. >> yeah. deirdre, let's talk for a second about kind of how they got here. and one. >> of the big. >> controversies has been did they do it with these inferior nvidia chips, these h eight. which one is the better 1h1 hundred. so they did it with h 800. let's just take it at face value because analysts say look it's possible that they did this right and that the export controls forced this level of innovation. so thank you, deep sea for showing the rest of the world it's possible. the question now is do we keep with the export ban on these leading edge chips or not. and in fact, david sacks called the crypto a. the eyes are just weighed in on this. on twitter, he says this shows that the ai race will be very competitive and that president trump was right to rescind biden's eo, which hamstrung american ai companies without asking whether china would do the same. it didn't, he says. i'm confident in the us, but we can't be complacent. there's a whole fight in here about open source ai models and whether we should be kind of

going in the direction that openai would prefer versus what deep c and others are doing, kind of leaving this technology more open to the public. so how do you think, policy wise, this is all going to play out? well, let's be clear. the export ban did not work. in fact, it backfired. it forced the chinese to innovate in new ways that companies and giants here didn't have to. i call them the good chips and the dumb down chips. the good ones are the h one hundreds. that's the nvidia gpus that everyone wants. nvidia 800 are the ones that the chinese get because of the export ban. and what deep sea says it was able to do is create a model that outperforms some of our best models built here in america with those dumb down chips. i mean, that is a point of debate. some people say that the hedge fund of which deep tech was born out of had been sort of hoarding the better chips. but at the end of the day, kelly, it doesn't really matter. we've moved on past that. we know now what deep sea proved is that these models and open source. nonetheless, i want to stress how important it is that deep six model is. open

source can be built for a fraction of the price, whether that's 6 million or 60 million. that is far less than the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars that openai, gemini, google and others have poured into this. so i think that's also maybe why you're seeing meta in the positive today, because it's also working on open source matters. in fact, i can't remember who it was. one of the people we spoke to in the valley on this said that meta is probably racing right now to figure out what deep sea did and build on top of it. and so there's a new race that started in open source development, which is really key there. and that's why the companies that were working on closed source models, like an openai, real questions about their moat. and, tavis, this all gets into this big pivot that's happening in the ai space from the massive clusters that were required to train these models to the ones that can do more inferencing, maybe have a little bit lighter. that's why you're seeing the power stocks down, you know. yes. early last week it was all about stargate. and it's going

to have a million gpus used. and it's going to require, you know, nuclear power. and now it's about okay. and even if it were 5 to 6 million to kind of make the shift to inferencing, do you think that's enough for the likes of broadcom, which should in a way benefit from that transition to be down 18% today? >> it seems extreme. but like look three. weeks from now we could be talking about something completely different. innovation is happening really fast. it's really hard to predict in what ways it's going to happen and what companies are going to benefit on a specific form of innovation. i think all we know is that, you know, this market has has thrown about $10 trillion of market cap into the ai theme, and it's going to be really volatile for some time. there's no set in stone way. ai is going to get to market and to know to think we know who the winners and losers are going to be at this point, or even to the degree they're public, is somewhat unknowable. >> yeah. there's a look at some of the biggest decliners all in the energy space. again, the people who we thought would need kind of the near term benefit

amount of spend to support all of this, maybe. sam lawson, we talked a few different people about this this morning. he said $6 million in trading has now destroyed half a trillion in meme driven market cap. i don't know if it's fair to call it meme driven, but in two business days, roger mcnamee said, look, it's obvious the chinese approach is going to produce more value. it's not as wasteful, he says. it exposes the ludicrous approach that american companies have taken to ai and calls the path unsustainable. bradley, do you agree? >> yeah. >> i mean. >> ultimately, i think deirdre got this right. if open source is here and it's. >> what the market. >> wants, and it's hard to see how that wouldn't be, you know, we have to be able to adapt to that. so in part that's what i think david sax was getting at in his in his tweet, which was look, we're going to have to both move past the biden executive order. >> and. >> possibly allow open source. and the american companies are going to have to adapt really quickly. but the. >> other thing. >> is, you know, it always feels like human beings have this tendency to think whatever is right now is what will always be. and that's never the case, right? it's really not the case with ai. but i remember, you

know, coming on cnbc multiple times in the past year where everyone's super excited about nvidia and nothing can ever stop them. and all of a sudden $6 million just did. so i just really think it's important for people to be mindful here that we are in the early stages of something totally disruptive and transformative, and whatever you're doing, you know, be prepared to pivot at. >> any point. >> i was listening to one of the emergency podcasts from the weekend. >> it was one with. >> miles brundage bradley. and, you know, he talked about how we shouldn't assume that just because these kind of inferencing models can be done with lighter compute, that, that people don't still have a need for the chips. he likened it to creating einstein and said, don't. wouldn't you rather have a thousand einsteins than just one? i mean, wouldn't you rather even deploy multiple, you know, types of this technology at the same time in order to get it, whether it's a homework problem or, you know, a cybersecurity problem or whatever it is. so that's why i find this, this issue around nvidia, okay. maybe in the very, very near term, you could call some of the financials into question. but i'm sure deep seek i'm sure across china i'm sure everybody would rather have access to more

nvidia gpus at this point than fewer. >> yeah. >> that's absolutely true. >> but i think the problem is the disparity we're talking about is not $6 million versus $60 million. it's $6 million versus, you know, $500 billion of stargate was talking about, you know, trump the other day. the disparity is so massive. >> it's not the whole number, though. 6 million was only. >> the amount. >> that was just the last. the last. >> that's an important caveat. >> yeah. >> you're totally right. but but overall i just think that, you know. yes. but because this world because the cost of compute has been so expensive and the cost of energy for this has been so expensive that i think that just creates massive demand for something cheaper. but yeah, your point is right. like we don't all we know is where we are today and it's going to evolve in 20 different ways we can't even think of. >> right now. >> deirdre. final word. yeah. on this point, what i hear from people in tech is that you're not going to see any kind of slowdown from openai or google or microsoft, the companies that want to build the best models in america, because now it's just

all the more existential for them. i mean, what deep sea showed is you can get right to the frontier and build something on that and innovate. but if you actually make more advances in the pre-training model, which has become a lot harder to do than the us is back on top. so maybe that drive is just is even more urgent, let's say. and you do need to spend all that money, half $1 trillion, hundreds of millions in capex. maybe you do need to do that just to keep the us ahead. i mean, i think now it's more uncertain, but the stakes have risen. i think that's exactly right. i appreciate you all joining us today, bradley tusk, tavis mccourt, raymond james, our deirdre bosa, of course. and remember, you can watch deirdre's full deep dive into deep sea and china's ai breakthrough by scanning that qr code on your screen. or go to cnbc.com slash t c takes. we said she was all over it. let's get the latest on the hack now which is giving cybersecurity stocks a bump today. my next guest warned about this when he was on the show two weeks ago. says data protection is crucial now because data leaks are used to train these ai models in

china and elsewhere. ivan cerini is ceo of ferret, a web security monitoring platform. ivan, let's start with what we know about deep sea hack today. look there. now i'm hearing reports they're restricting signups only to mobile users in china. what's going on? >> yeah, thanks. >> for asking. that's a great question. >> i would say, first of. >> all, we need to wait until the actual. information gets gets public about what actually happened. was it a hack? was it a breach or was it a massive surge of users at the on the deep six website? we don't know yet, but definitely deep six is disrupting the ai industry overall. it's has been compared, obviously to the sputnik moment, and it could be a hack, or it could be just a significant load of new users that they're acquiring. so let's wait for the actual information from them. >> sure. i was thinking of you this morning when i was toying with downloading the app. you know, for the past week i've thought to myself, do i need to get tiktok off the phone? so remind me about the methods that

you described that tiktok is using to collect our activity on the phone, and whether you think downloading deep sea, which is now number one on the app store, would expose u.s. users to the same problem. >> yeah, absolutely. so something that is, you know, the guests just were mentioning that it's really important to your question on the tiktok and how it collects the information. so what is really important to you to remember that ai does, you know, does not live on its own. it has four main pillars, which is energy processing power. the chips that you discussed and also the ingenuity or the engineering part that humans do. and also really important is the information and the data that ai uses to train itself, but also to become really relevant. and that's where is what is really important. what you said is, hey, how does tiktok or any other company that is involved or could be collecting information that can be used to train ai, and how do they get that information? so obviously from the apps like, yeah, like

tiktok or other apps could be or are potentially collecting information that can be used to train ai, but also really is important. that really is not being appreciated as much yet is the value of the english speaking information that all kinds of apps, whether they're collecting, collecting it or if they're connected to china or not, or pixels trackers, that's what our specialty is, what they do. they collect information that is very, very current. like kelly, something you were doing perhaps before coming into the office today, right? when you look at something on a website they are seeing and they can be using that to fine tune, you know, recommendations or fine tune or potentially weaponize it. so there is definitely a cyber security threat in information that is being collected and exported to china. >> and i think this a lot of this hangs on the word ken versus the word is, you know, do all of these chinese apps just have the capability to do that, or are they definitely doing that?

>> well, that's a probably $1 trillion question. and there is really it's impossible to pinpoint and prove anything until it is proven to be true. and for example, you know, when it comes to data or information that is being collected by companies associated with china, can they be transferred to chinese government by according to chinese law? yes, it can be. right. so that's a very important when that information is used for training ai models. that and collection of that information can potentially disrespect all of the laws we have in america or in other countries. and that can give a significant advantage to the chinese innovation in ai, right? >> because english language activity is highly valuable because english, at least for now, is still the forefront kind of leading edge of these ai models. so as i mentioned, a lot of people have downloaded this app onto their phones. ivan,

should they delete it? >> well, it's a personal choice. we live in the free world, so it's really up to them, to individuals to make a choice. i certainly do not use the app myself because i don't want to be in a exposing my information. that's my personal opinion. but with that said, it's also an interesting comment that i want to add is that just like in financial markets, you know, you don't want to be making, you know, investment decisions based on an outdated data, whether it's six months or a year or a couple of years old, because that wouldn't be a wise investment decision. same with ai. when i uses an outdated data and an outdated information, it's not going to be as accurate as if it is using the data that is very, very current. so that's a really important value of the current information, potentially even protecting that, protecting or preventing export of current information of americans to adversarial countries. >> that's super interesting. so it sort of suggests like if you don't want them to get the edge right now, maybe take the stuff

off your phone right now, i don't know. i'll have to think about it. ivan, thanks for joining us. good to see you again. we really appreciate it today. >> thank you. >> kelly. ivan cerini with fruit security. still ahead, our coverage of the market selloff continues with strategic chairman and ceo jason trennert, who has a warning for investors who have been too tied to tech stocks. but first, for 48 hours away from the fed's next move on rates. our guest says chair powell has no choice but to acknowledge the increased uncertainty from president trump and from his tariff threats. the tech heavy nasdaq down more than 3% today. we're still near session lows. the dow is fractionally higher, believe it or not, outperforming the major averages. the exchange is back after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. techcheck is sponsored by comcast business. powering possibilities. >> light. >> it guides our every waking

moment. what we do and how. >> we. >> do it. but the amount of. >> light. >> we need can. >> change in. >> an instant. >> and when it. >> does. >> you can control it. >> three day blinds. >> three day blinds. >> find the light for your life. oh, it's cold outside. time to protect your vehicle from winter's wrath. of course, the hot sun can be tough on vehicles too. you need weathertech. laser measured floorliners and cargo liner will shield the carpeting from sand and snow. for your interior, there's seat protector and sunshade. plus, mud flaps and bumpstep for the exterior. impactliner, with shock absorbing rings, safeguards your truck bed from costly damage. order american made products at wt.com surf's up!

finding the right path takes experience. as a national leader in municipal investment banking and wealth advisory services hilltopsecurities can help you find the best path to reach your financial goals. with the backing of a diversified financial services enterprise, deep industry knowledge, and a 75-year history of innovation, we don't follow the herd. we lead it. dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five.

it's five years of reliable gig speed internet. five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited time. high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. your dream office a reality. >> it may have been america's shortest trade war ever. let's recap around this time yesterday, president trump posted on truth social that he'll impose emergency 25% tariffs, ramping up to 50% after a week on all columbian imports after the country denied entry of two u.s. planes carrying deported migrants. colombia's president responded he wasn't scared of trump's tactics and threatened a retaliatory tariff of a 50% on u.s. goods. but just a few hours later, colombia acquiesced, allowing the planes to land. will this be trump's negotiating tactic going forward? for more on what this

portends for tariffs and trade, joining us is tobin marcus. he is head of policy and politics at wolfe research. tobin, it's great to have you. what did we learn from this? >> yeah, very exciting weekend. so look, i think it's been clear all along. >> that there. >> was one category of trump's tariff agenda. that's what we saw over the weekend, the sort of big threats that are made to extract non-trade concessions. and so i think what we learned is he's not afraid to go big on those threats. and he is very, very intent on kind of compelling compliance with his immigration agenda. in these cases where we need cooperation from other countries on things like repatriation of deported migrants. so i think the clearest read through in terms of the rest of the tariff threats, which obviously we have china, we have canada, we have mexico, we have the eu, we have the universal tariff threats that the rest of the world, canada and mexico, are the most similarly situated ones. that's the other kind of main situation where he's made tariff threats with immigration. as one of the big asks. and, you know, i don't know that it really changes the

outlook on the canada and mexico threats all that much. we're headed for this theoretical deadline on on saturday. the threats out there, and i don't think we've learned the extent to which he's really willing to tolerate economic pain in service of this agenda, because, you know, in the colombian case, not only did it not happen, but it was a really small magnitude of trade, what, $18 billion of gross trade that was exposed. >> you know, we spoke to derek scissors about this on friday, but this whole kind of interesting shift that we've seen from the president where he's really going after kind of mexico to some extent, canada, colombia, really pressing hard on the immigration issue, on some of the fentanyl issues and other things that we're dealing with in mexico. the tariffs of 25%, again, could be a few days away. we'll see. and meanwhile it's been very quiet on the china front, even while we're talking about all that they're doing with ai and this like leading edge work. what do you make of that? >> so i think it's the point that we've always made is that there are different kinds of tariff threats that that trump is making, and that we should think about them differently

from an investment in market perspective in the china case. our argument has always been it's probably going to be big, but it's probably going to be slow. he's going to want to do these big bilateral negotiations with president xi about the whole variety of us-china issues and equities before going through with the tariff threats, which we still think he will eventually, when those talks fail to come together with a sort of fully satisfying deal for both sides. i just think that's a very different type of strategy than what he has in the mexican case, where the idea isn't that we have such unfair trade that we need 25% tariffs to stay in place forever. it's not that we need to raise revenue from this. it's that we want them to make some policy shifts. and this is the cudgel that he's wielding to get that to happen. >> do you what would you put the odds of tariffs happening on mexico on saturday at this point? >> i think it's under 50 over 50 inoeon saturday. but i think the more important considerationhenswer . hard to fully predict whether or not he pulls the trigger on it. if so, that's probably a couple

of bad days in markets. but i don't think there's a world where we're just living with 25% tariffs on mexico indefinitely. the point there is very much to get the kind of win that he got in the columbia case, where you make the threat, you don't really have to suffer a lot of pain and you end up getting compliance on these sort of non trade topics. >> so in that sense, a little preview of what may be to come. tobin thanks. appreciate it today. tobin marcus of wolfe research. and while the fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week ahead of that potential uncertainty, it has made their easing strategy more complicated this year. my next guest says they're in no hurry to keep cutting towards neutral. joining me now is paul mcculley, former chief economist at pimco, now an adjunct professor at georgetown mcdonough school of business, along with cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. paul, it almost sounded like you think there's a chance they might cut this week. or maybe we're putting it too strongly. welcome. >> good to see you, kelly and steve. >> no, i don't think. >> they're. cutting this week at all. >> i think this has been the most well advertised pause that. >> we've had in. >> a long. >> long time. so there's not that issue. >> but i do.

>> think that. >> the direction. >> of travel. >> to. >> use mr. powell's. >> expression from december. >> is unambiguously. >> still down. >> and i think they. >> still have. >> a disinflationary. >> scenario in their mind. >> and i think that is justified. >> so i think that's. >> what he. >> will do this week is basically say we completed the recalibration. >> it's over. >> it was 100. >> basis points. >> we got. >> from the wrong. >> neighborhood to. >> the right. >> neighborhood. >> we're at four and 3/8. and now we're going to sit here and we're going to try to find the right street to be on. so i think he will basically consolidate what he's already told us. and then i'm sure he's going to be asked a whole bunch of questions about president trump. but on the strict monetary policy side, i think it's pretty straightforward. >> and steve, while we actually might have had some interesting developments in terms of rent disinflation, i'm, you know,

seeing the market talk about and that's a biggie, one of the most important components of inflation. but then you have this sticky and persistent problem with egg prices, which feel like the new gasoline prices to me. and the more that they go up and eggs are hard. and whatever the reason may be that i feel like is a messaging problem for the fed. >> i don't think the fed has an egg messaging problem, if that's what you're saying. kelly, i and i'm pretty sure that the federal reserve is not going to allow eggs to dictate monetary policy. of course, i'm just joking around, but i think the rent story is a serious story. and i want to add a little bit to what paul is saying and maybe see what he thinks about this. the fed is happy to take its time and hold and to find the right street. however, if the market were to provide it some guidance, which is to say, if because of what you're saying there, kelly, that rent would come down, inflation would come down and the market would begin by itself. pricing in additional

rate cuts. i think the fed would be okay following them to the right address on the right street in the right neighborhood. >> paul, what would you say about that? >> i think that. >> is very. much the case. the fed has laid out very, very well its reaction function. it's also laid out its assessment of the balance of risk. so essentially the marketplace has the fed's reaction function and is looking at the data the same way the fed is. so therefore if we get the sort of data that suggests we are finally getting the disinflation in a meaningful way in our owners equivalent rent, and overall that disinflation is coming down, then the marketplace will rationally say they're going to move over to an easier street. and once the marketplace discounts it, the fed can follow it. so yes, i

think that's very much the case. the market doesn't the fed doesn't have to lead in this scenario because it's already led by giving us its reaction function. >> and we can see rates today. steve. yeah i was just going to say, you know, we've gone from 4.8 to around four and a half. >> yeah, they've come back down. and i think what's happening with that regard is sort of the market looking for a range here. and it'll be interesting to see if this four and a half, maybe 440 is the bottom in terms of where, where the trade would take place. but i am interested in this one notion here, kelly, that the fed doesn't know more than the market knows about where president trump is going. and i want to show you the results of the survey this morning. two things i picked out from yes, recession chances are down. the outlook is pretty good. but take a look. 69% say the number one downside risk is

uncertainty over fiscal policy okay. that's the first thing. so and then you can see right there i'm sorry 61% saying the downside is policy uncertainty. and now look at the percentage who are saying they're doing nothing because of the presidential election. and that number is high as well, a very large percentage north of 60% are saying that because of the presidential election, they haven't hired, they haven't fired, they haven't boosted employment, they haven't boosted capex. there's a lot of potential energy out there. i guess you would call it kinetic energy when it comes to the economy right now, kelly and i think the fed is sort of sitting there waiting to see which way this all breaks. if all the good stuff happens from the trump administration, then i think those companies that are responding, they could be hiring and investing and you could have a surge in growth and maybe some inflationary pressure. so that's why i think the fed doesn't know much more and has the same uncertainty that's out there in the stock market, in the

business world as everybody else. >> gentlemen, a pleasure as always. we'll leave it there. we'll see what neighborhood and street we're kind of, you know, in come wednesday and then into the weekend and beyond. paul mcculley and steve liesman, thank you so much. coming up, we're entering the heart of earnings season with four of the seven mag seven on deck. before that there are some names in luxury defense and software. we've got the numbers and narratives to know ahead of those reports, including an ai rally on behalf of europe from rally on behalf of europe from the ceo of sap. those detai (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses

and more in prospectus at invesco.com tech stocks while balancing growth and income, combining tech growth with premium income. pepe offers a unique investment opportunity. for more information, including the fund's standardized performance, sec 30 day yield, and current distribution rate, visit rex distribution rate, visit rex shares mvp. (tony hawk) skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take qunol turmeric because it helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption compared to regular turmeric. qunol. the brand i trust. gorgeous. >> 1932 gold coins are as.

>> bright and shiny as the. >> day they were. >> struck. >> and less than. >> 400 of these gold coins are available. >> coin experts are calling the secret. >> us gold. >> coin discovery. >> a. >> once in a. lifetime opportunity. >> and you can own a piece. >> of the hoard. >> when you call. >> you are. >> guaranteed a. >> 1932 dated. >> gold coin. >> featuring lady liberty with an indian war headdress and a majestic eagle with limited availability. >> you must. >> call now. these 1932 dated. >> gold coins. >> are still in uncirculated condition with brilliant luster. that is 92 years of history you can hold in your hand. call 1-888-870-6353. call now and you'll receive a free bonus over a $55 value. free with every order. call 1-888-870-6353 to secure your 1932 $10 gold indian coins before they sell out. don't wait. you must act fast. call now. >> individually. >> each of. >> us is great, but. >> from here you. >> can see. >> we're one. >> big team. >> at atlassian. >> we believe real progress

takes all of us. >> working together. >> on new sources of energy, cars. >> that drive to the future. even pizza deliveries. together we can go beyond where we've ever. been collaborating from anywhere. >> on everything. >> atlassian makes software for teams to do what is impossible alone. >> welcome back to the exchange. i'm contessa brewer with your cnbc news update. new secretary of defense pete hegseth said today president trump will sign an executive order that would start the process to build a next generation missile defense shield for the united states, according to a white house fact sheet. the shield, modeled on israel's iron dome, would use advanced space based systems to detect and shoot down launches that target the united states. meanwhile, the president issued an executive order yesterday to establish a council to review fema. the order calls for a council of federal officials and, quote unquote,

distinguished individuals selected by trump. on friday, the president vowed either to overhaul or shut down fema entirely and more mysterious drone sightings in the northeast. since the faa lifted its temporary flight restrictions in the new jersey new york area. enigma labs, a research company studying unidentified phenomena, said of the 49 reports it received this month, 14 came after the flight ban expiration. the faa has yet to even confirm those sightings, but the people who are watching it, kelly, they're quite certain of what they've seen. >> i was just going to say the chatter has picked back up again. the sightings and so forth. we'll see if it spirals into a bigger story or if we ever get answers. thanks. ever. coming up, nvidia erasing more than half $1 trillion in market cap just today, its value back below the 3 trillion mark for the first time since october. and on a technical level, it's below its 200 day moving average for the first time in more than two years. we'll take a closer look at the market's internals

next with the strategist, next with the strategist, chairman and ceo it's a lot to be a caregiver and a daughter. because you kind of have to take a step back. getting some help would be a great relief. from companions to helpers to caregivers. find all the senior care you need at care.com it's a smart move to get a second opinion. you do it when you're looking for a contractor. you definitely do it with medical advice. so why not with your stock market investments? we can help you see opportunities you may be missing. at hennion & walsh it only takes a second to schedule your free second opinion. so what's there to lose? speak to hennion & walsh. the second opinion people. (auctioneer) let's start the bidding at 5 million dollars. speak to hennion & walsh. thank you, sir. (man) these people of privilege... hoarding the financial advantages for far too long. (auctioneer) 7.5 at the back. (man) look at them — unaware that robinhood gold members

now enjoy the vip treatment — a 3% ira match on retirement contributions. (auctioneer) 11 million sir. (man) once they discover their privileges are no longer exclusive... their fragile reality will plunge into disarray. ♪ (vo) with fargo, your virtual assistant from wells fargo, you can access your fico® score in a snap. (daughter) what i would give to be able to make art on this scale! (dad) you will one day. but it's equally important for you to be thinking about your future... building credit— (daughter) dad... fargo, what's my fico® score? (dad) wow... it's a work of art. (vo) do you fargo? (daughter) that was corny, but i'll take it. (vo) you can. visit wellsfargo.com/getfargo.

sale and make your dream office a reality. >> learn how to use ai to be more successful ■with cnbc make it's new online course. >> we'll give you examples that can help you master ai tools. >> special offer ends february 11th. go to cnbc make it. com slash ai and register now. >> welcome back. the dow has managed to turn positive by 80 points today. but what we can call the deep sea sell off is

still really pressuring tech. nvidia and broadcom alone are shaving nearly 400 points off the nasdaq 100. broadcom's decline is nearly 19% now. nvidia is about 16. and while my next guest believes tech's problems are somewhat isolated, for now at least, he says today is an important reminder that innovation can wear away quickly. joining me now is jason trennert, ceo of strategist. jason, it is great to see you today. i mean, you can start there. you can. where where does your mind go on a day like this? >> well, listen. >> i think. >> i start. with first. >> principles, right? >> and the first principles are. >> you know, what is the health of the economy? >> and when i look at. >> the things that we look at in that. >> regard. >> whether it's credit spreads which. >> are very. >> tight, whether it's the ten year. treasury yield, which seems. >> to be stable. >> whether it's earnings expectations, which. look to be up something in the. order of 12 to 13% for the. >> first quarter. >> and 14% for this year, it seems to me that i still want to be constructive on on the overall market. you know, what

we don't know, of course, is how how big a threat deep seek is to the mag seven. to be honest with you, i'm somewhat skeptical. but i also know that i don't know, but there are plenty of other a. >> person like you. i thought, okay, you have how many years of experience in the market? you've often warned when people are just piling into these momentum and high valuation stocks, but is almost a 20% decline the kind of move that makes you think, well, for that, i could get into nvidia. >> it does. >> i have to be quite you know, and of course you can never you never pick the bottom precisely. but the moves and particularly not just on ai but another another theme, a very close theme is industrial. the industrial power generation theme, that renaissance theme, which is utilities, a lot of electrical equipment, nuclear. those have gotten absolutely taken out to the woodshed today. those are also selling off in a big way. but i feel very strongly those are very durable. both ai and the industrial power

theme are very durable, enduring themes that will provide investors with opportunities for many years to come. so when you when you know, you have to recognize that if you're buying today or tomorrow, it could go down further. but the question is, does it look, does it look reasonable six months or a year from now or two years from now? and in my opinion, the answer is very likely yes. but you know, again, we're yeah, we're we're going on, on not a lot of information but that's that's my opinion. >> of course. but a 20% down move as you said, whether it's the power names you know some of the that you don't get opportunities like that a lot. the flip side is those who say that this is the.com moment where we thought we needed this massive build out for communications back in the 90s, then all of a sudden kind of the multiples start to slow and they shift, and then you think, well, all of a sudden, you know, these stock valuations aren't justified. so is that the risk for anyone who's thinking about getting in now that it turns out there was, you know, x trillion of market cap for a company?

okay, that's still going to do fine, but it's just not going to be as big as we thought it was. >> yeah it's possible i mean, you know, these folks are you know, no one's perfect, but they're very a lot of smart people here. meta made an announcement last week that they're going to be spending 60 to $65 billion on artificial intelligence. and i also think there's a certain element of you get what you pay for. and so this idea that a new ai model that costs a fraction of the price that's coming out of a chinese hedge fund is going to completely disrupt the ai universe right now. seems i again, i'm somewhat skeptical of that. but, you know, knowing that as as we started the show, the thing about technology investing is that you're always subject to the fact that there's always a new widget, there's always new innovation that can wear away competitive advantages quickly. but i'm not sure this is the one. but but again, i'm going to be keeping an open mind. if this is what it says it

is. it's not great for mag seven, you have to remember, but it would be great for humanity. i mean, if you were able to, you know, if you were able to get ai on the cheap, that was had the same quality, it would greatly it would greatly speed up the productivity enhancements that we're hoping to get from ai in the future. so there's a lot of moving parts here, but i'm still pretty constructive on both the economy and the and the markets. >> and we do have apple meta, you know, those kinds of companies who would benefit from cheaper ai up today. let me kind of pivot, jason, while we have you and ask because the clock is ticking. you know, this administration as well as anyone. what are you telling clients to expect in terms of tariffs on mexico and canada? and why has the president been kind of quiet on china? >> listen, i think i think it's important. this is my interpretation. i'm hardly an intimate of the of the president. okay. so but i you know i've, i've watched him and feel like i have a decent idea of the way he operates. and i think that he views tariffs as a

tool. he views tariffs as a negotiating technique. it drives permanent. washington absolutely crazy because no one's done it that way before. but he's very willing to trade tariffs for non-economic items, whether that's fewer fentanyl shipments through the southern border or whether it's immigration. and again, that's not the way we've really done it since the end of world war two. but that's the way we're doing it now. and as an american, frankly, i love it. and i know other countries may not like it. i know if you work at the state department, you might not like it, but i do think it's going to result in better outcomes for the united states. and i think i think there's a tendency, as peter thiel said, president trump's detractors take him literally, but they don't take him seriously. his, his the people that like him, they take him seriously. they don't always take him so, so literally. in my opinion, these this is all part of a grand negotiation. and it just shows that the nature of

the nature of international trade has changed. i know a lot of people are upset about that. i don't see it going back, though, just not only in the united states, but also outside the united states, where there is more of a focus on sovereignty as opposed to these big multilateral agreements. >> agreed. you hear in france, you hear it in a lot of other countries in the west as well. thinking about it, jason, thanks, as always. appreciate it. jason trennert from strategas joining us today. still to come, bitcoin's back below 100,000 reached a record high just a week ago above 109 k on trump's inauguration day, now down about 9% from that level. coinbase and robinhood in the red as well. although hood shares hit a 52 week high earlier on. we'll have more af do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel

or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. so many legendary investors quietly ignoring that advice and instead selling the stock hand over fist? every billionaire on your screen has recently sold nvidia. some have offloaded millions of shares. and mark my words, this is bigger than nvidia. hedge funds are quietly selling all of their tech stocks at the fastest rate we've seen since 2016. it begs the question what do they know that you don't? my name is mark chaikin. i help build three indices for the nasdaq during my 50 years on wall street. that means i know

how to recognize these signals from the tech market and exactly what they mean for you and your money. i explain everything in my new market briefing, including the truth of what's going on with nvidia today and the specific stock i recommend you buy instead. i'll give you its name and ticker when you visit the website below. nvidia has been the most talked about stock in the market, and for good reason. it's led the ai revolution that has taken the us stock market by storm since they announced their ai powered computer chip in 2023. nvidia stock has been on a history making tear, officially surpassing microsoft to become the world's most valuable company today. however, many investors are worried the tide is changing. nvidia's day in the sun may soon be coming to a dramatic end. and as a result, i predict a different, under-the-radar stock is primed for big potential gains from this moment on. to get its name

and ticker 100% free, simply visit the website below. >> and 20s a week to lose 20% of your weight in a year with diet and exercise. that's the power of glp one through ro. connect with a provider today at ro code2040. >> it's not just about the ticket sales. >> this maintaining that connectivity with her fans. >> the power of a fan base. >> she's built. >> this billion dollar brand. >> she's able. >> to do. >> that. in a pretty unique way. >> this swift effect. cnbc premiere tomorrow at ten eastern.

>> is this how you're hoping to retire? well, hope isn't a good retirement strategy. you've worked for a comfortable retirement for years. now you need to plan for retirement income. learn ways to avoid common mistakes, like being too conservative or not setting retirement goals. have someone on your side to keep you on track. >> call for fishers comfortable retirement kit with the help you need to make your retirement a success, including the investor's guide to a comfortable retirement. 13 retirement blunders to avoid and maximize your social security. call one (800) 759-4477. >> fisher tailors a plan to keep you on track for a retirement you want, and as a fiduciary, we do better when our clients do better. >> call now for your comfortable retirement kit. call 1-800-759-4477. >> if your retirement portfolio is $500,000 or more, call us today. you don't have it coming to you unless you plan for it.

>> call one (800) 759-4477. >> nothing stands still. not technology, not the market, and not franklin templeton. we've been a firm in motion for. >> over 75. >> years. >> always innovating. today, we are a leader in public and private markets, digital assets and custom tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build the portfolios of the future. today. franklin templeton, your trusted partner for what's ahead. >> for me? squawk box. >> is breakfast with the most interesting people. >> in. >> the world. >> it's a privilege to get to. >> talk to them every day. >> it's more. >> entertaining than any other morning. >> show. >> but you might get

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. sale and make your dream office a reality. >> welcome back. we're heading to europe in today's earnings exchange not your earnings exchange. we've got the action, the story and the trade on sap, lvmh and rtx. a panoply of

initialisms are trader today is leigh munson, cio of portfolio wealth advisors. leigh, it's great to see you, i appreciate it. and let's start with sap. now the ceo is saying that trump's stargate project should be a wake up call for europe, and he would absolutely support a similar plan overseas. before we go down that road, though, on their q4 expectations, stifel is positive on top line growth and cloud momentum. county cowen thinks they could get margin expansion. you know, the stock has done pretty well over the past year, up 11%. what's your take here? leigh? >> i everything comes down to that for. >> a cloud based system. >> what people love about sap. i mean don't get. >> me wrong, i. >> do not like. >> european stocks. i don't. >> even. >> have the efa in my core portfolio. but this is a company that does 40%. >> of their business in america and it's growing. i think. >> that now that they. >> have that forehand. >> a cloud based system is mature. you're going to see sales accelerate. >> you're going to see margin expansion. i think you're going to get beats. >> to the upside. all year long. i can't. >> believe i'm. >> saying.

>> that about. >> a. >> european name. >> but to your point, they have a lot of u.s. exposure and i think they're the biggest company in germany. so you're placing your bets on a strong one. all right. elsewhere in europe, lvmh. the shares are actually up 18%. so far this year. we've seen a little luxury renaissance. morgan stanley recently upgraded, cited improving prospects that louis vuitton and tiffany beyonce thinks there could be some foreign exchange headwinds, but they're starting to turn into tailwinds, actually. would you go into this one? >> you know, i feel. >> like. >> i keep this company in business. the big. >> problem with european luxury is they were. >> trying to. >> get a younger audience with ridiculous. >> on trend stuff. >> everybody knows that. >> it's older. >> people who buy this expensive stuff, and. >> they're. >> the ones who are buying it for their spoiled little children. but louis. >> vuitton, they. >> know how to deal with licensing. you know, the murakami, bruce sales, tiffany and then christian dior. that's classic as well. they don't. >> fall. >> into the trap of trying. >> to be too on trend. >> tiffany is a. >> strong brand. >> my daughter loves it.

>> it's in every mall in. >> america, yet still retains. >> that that brand. >> appeal i love it. there's just one little thing when you're doing your calculus and analysis, just make sure that the alcohol segment you have declining. over time, young people just aren't drinking. i still like the stock. i still think that they're the category killer outside of hermes, period. >> well, they we've certainly seen the other beer and spirits stocks down, but they've been managing, you know, diversified enough to buck that. but it's a good point. moving on to rtx then the shares are up 8% this month. citi upgraded them last week. they think positive results, strong european demand, normalization of equipment backlogs, but are waiting to see how the transition of power in washington plays out. what do you do with this one? >> i don't think. that's what it's about. i think it's all about spare parts for these airline engines. it's been doing great because we're in a huge cycle. >> that's going. >> to peak this year for selling parts to existing airplane engines as we go out to 2025, boeing and airbus are producing a bunch of new engines. here's

what people don't understand. when boeing and airbus sell a new engine, they sell it at a loss. they're selling them new because the money is in the parts that also squeezes rtx their margins for those new plane parts. if you're a contrarian, you want an edge. you got to believe that there's going to be a huge china resurgence in asia. leisure travel. if so, used parts are going to continue to. >> be strong. >> margins are continuing to expand. the cfo over there does everything right. but you got to believe about asia leisure or else this thing could fizzle out. >> there's a tie there. asia leisure with lvmh. i can i can see a theme emerging li appreciate it. li munson of portfolio wealth advisors and that's it for us. thanks for watching the exchange. and i'll join dom chu, who's in for brian on power lunch right after this quick break. >> earnings exchange is sponsored by atlassian, makers of team collaboration software like jira and confluence.

>> individually. >> each of us is. >> great, but. >> from here you can see we're one big team. at atlassian. we believe real progress takes all of. us working together on new sources of energy, cars that drive to the future, even pizza deliveries. together we can go beyond where we've ever been collaborating from anywhere on everything. atlassian makes software for teams to do what is impossible alone. >> thinking about retirement. would you like to have retirement income that you can count on for the rest of your life? how about up to 33% more income? call this number to get this free book annuity do's and don'ts for baby boomers. this book is filled with valuable information uncovering little known secrets to help you maximize your income in retirement. and it's free. retirement income you can count on starts by calling for this free book. as a bonus, we'll also rush this annuity rate report. also, absolutely free

annuity national researched. numerous products can summarize the rates and benefits of annuities from foremost insurance companies like. >> nassau life and annuity call for both these free books. annuity national retirement income you can count on for the rest of your life. call now for your free books. call 800 211 4470. that's 800 211 4470 800 211 4470. >> some people. >> like doing. >> things the hard way. >> like doing their. >> finances with. >> a spreadsheet. >> instead of. >> using quicken. >> quicken pulls all your financial info. >> together in. >> together in. >> you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean. not spreadsheets... you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our matching platform lets you spend less time searching and more time connecting with candidates. visit indeed.com/hire

growing. and with the help of financing from capetus, you can meet all of your business goals because at capetus we finance the legacy builders, the creators, the freedom chasers, the opportunity seekers. at capetus, we finance small businesses. >> welcome to power lunch alongside kelly evans. you're going to see in just a second here i'm dominic chu. we've got a major tech sell off today nvidia getting crushed. china's deep sea says its large language model was developed cheaply and quickly. so maybe companies don't need to spend quite as much money on some of those nvidia chips. maybe marc andreessen